Middle East Institute MEI Focuses on Political Protest and Transformation

VOLUME 62 · ISSUE 1 · MARCH 2011

INSIDE MEI Focuses on Political Protest and Transformation 2 Why So Few Saw this Upheaval Coming

5 Meet the Scholars: In these unprecedented times of popular unrest in ton Times, The Wall Street Journal, and USA Today, Wayne White the Middle East, MEI is more engaged and active among many others. 7 Interview with MEJ Author than ever. In the past two weeks, we have hosted a Joshua Stacher handful of events including, “What the Egyptian This Bulletin provides further context in these times People Really Want” with Dr. Shibley Telhami and Dr. of turmoil. In this issue, our scholars offer some 9 The Middle East Journal Steve Kull; a program on the Egyptian military with perspective on why and how revolution has spread MEI Scholar Dr. Graeme Bannerman and MEI Board 10 Beyond the Beltway across the region. Editor of The Middle East Journal member Col. Joseph Englehardt, former Defense Michael Dunn discusses the very timely issue of po- Attache in Cairo; and an event entitled “Israel after 13 Contributions litical empowerment through social media. Michael Egypt: Challenges and Opportunities for Peace” with continues to be extremely active on his Editor’s blog Congressman Robert Wexler and Dr. Yoram Peri. which you can follow here.

Demonstrators in Tunis calling for the Constitutional Democratic Rally to withdraw from the interim government days after its leader, President Zine El-‘Abidine Ben ‘Ali, resigned and fled the country, January 18, 2011. (Photo: Flickr user Nasser Nouri)

Our “Beyond the Beltway” segment notes the prodi- Also included is an interview with scholar Wayne gious work and media appearances of our scholars, White. He discusses his understanding of recent who have been extraordinary in responding to an political developments and what they mean for the Middle East outpour of hundreds of media requests. Just in the future of the Middle East. Furthermore, we pres- week of January 25th to February 1st, MEI experts ent an interview with Joshua Stacher discussing his Institute appeared over 40 times on TV news outlets including upcoming article in The Middle East Journal about 1761 N Street, NW C-SPAN, MSNBC, Al-Jazeera, ABC, Fox, CNN, BBC, authoritarian politics and hereditary succession in Washington, DC 20036 PBS, and more. In print media, MEI made showings Syria. Stacher describes how his research and analy- tel 202-785-1141 in numerous prominent newspapers including The sis on the characteristics of autocratic leadership has fax 202-331-8861 New York Times, The Washington Post, The Washing- been affected by recent unseating of dictatorships. www.mei.edu [continued on page 2] Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 1 As events in the region continue to unfold, MEI’s mission to increase awareness between the Middle East and US seems vital. We hope you will help us fulfill our mission by becoming a member today.

— Wendy Chamberlin

Why So Few Saw this Upheaval Coming

In the wake of the fall of Presidents Zine El-‘Abidine Ben ‘Ali in Tunisia and Husni Mubarak in Egypt, the revolt against Mu‘ammar Qadhafi in Libya and the waves of protest that have swept Algeria, Bahrain, Yemen, and Jordan, among other countries, some have asked why Middle East analysts and/or the intelligence community failed to anticipate the revolutionary tide. It’s a fair question.

And to be fair in trying to answer it, let us first acknowledge that there were a few voices crying in the wilder- ness, warning that the growing senescence of so many regimes, combined with the huge demographic bulge of youth under 30, educated but unemployed or underemployed, could not endure forever. Democracy activists, among others, were well aware of these pressures. And for Egypt, at least, it was increasingly obvious that 2011 would be an important year, since President Mubarak had to decide whether to seek a sixth six-year term, or attempt to hand off power to his son. But most expected that to come to center stage later this year. The actual spark that set off the chain reaction, the suicide of a vegetable seller in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, was the sort of random trigger no pundit or analyst can foresee. And once the first domino fell, the disaffected in other countries took heart.

Decades of stasis in the political development of many countries led not only outside observers, but the Arab elites themselves, to dismiss the Arab citizenry as passive, accept- ing direction from above. Nothing quite like these move- ments has been seen in recent decades, with the exception of the Iranian Revolution in 1979. In a region where most “revolutions” have been euphemisms for military coups, a real bottom-up revolution was hard to conceive of. One has to go back to the uprisings of the colonial era (Egypt 1919, Iraq 1921) to find anything similar. Or, of course, to the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union in 1989–1991. Protestors in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, February 2011 (Photo: Flickr user Kodak Agfa) This is why so many Middle East experts seemed to be caught unprepared: everyone was unprepared. Nothing in the recent experience of the region remotely prepared anyone, including the Arab elites themselves, for what has occurred. Everything we thought we knew has been turned on its head. Crowds of demonstrators who once dispersed at the first sign of security forces EDITORIAL STAFF held firm in the face of armed lines of police and, in Libya, even stood against advanced combat weaponry.

As this is written, of course, the ultimate outcome of this “Winter of Arab Discontent” is unknown. Egypt and Editors Tunisia have interim governments that have promised elections, but both countries’ revolts succeeded through Aaron Reese military intervention — directly in Egypt and in a more veiled manner in Tunisia — so the real future course Rachel Wilson will be charted by the men in uniform, though clearly they have understood the message of the demonstrators, and the latter will not be satisfied with an extended period of military rule. As also happened with the fall of Contributors Communism, various countries may see differing results; one size does not fit all, and some regimes may suc- Wendy Chamberlin ceed in weathering the storm. Others may be in for bloodshed and either revolutionary or counterrevolution- Michael Collins Dunn ary terror. Libya has already shed more blood than either of its neighbors in seeking to suppress the revolt. Julia Czaplinski In the first triumphant flush of victory when autocrats fall, the protesters have justifiably celebrated their tri- Zach Kiefer umph, but in fact, revolutionary change is not accomplished so readily. There is as yet no assurance that what Heather Malacaria Leah Nagy will emerge will really be the representative democracy the demonstrators say they want, as opposed to a new junta, or the replacement of the ousted autocrat with another one — a mere change of faces at the top.

A Real Change MEI Bulletin is published four times a year from Despite these cautions, it is nevertheless clear that there has been a sea change in the region, a new empower- Washington, DC. ment of a broad range of social classes, to a greater or lesser extent organized and channeled by young people

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 2 with good educations, uncertain futures, and a facility with social networking. Facebook and Twitter did not make the revolutions, but they provided an important ancillary tool for organizing. In a way, we are seeing the culmination of a change that began with the rise of satel- lite television channels in the 1990s, and accelerated with the ubiquity of the mobile phone.

Of course, Iran showed in 2009 that it could shut down the Internet to silence protests. But when Egypt and Libya did so this year, workarounds were found: dialup connections to Europe, for example. And in a global economy, the Internet cannot stay down for long without isolating the country and bringing commerce to a halt. A country cannot be as isolated as North Korea unless it is The headquarters of the National Democratic prepared to live with North Korea’s economy. Party after it was consumed by fire (Photo: Flickr user Kodak Agfa) The old guards, the aging men who have ruled so long in the region, have shown again and again that they do not understand the implications of the new media. They don’t get it; therefore they don’t understand how to deal with it. Despite Libya’s rigorous exclusion of foreign reporters, cell phone videos of atrocities have flooded YouTube. In days past it was sometimes said that freedom of the press was great, as long as you could afford to own a printing press. The technological empowerment of Web 2.0 means that everyone has a printing press, and also a television studio, and it fits in your pocket.

This technological empowerment has provided young Arab activists with the tools to implement genuine political empowerment. That is what is genuinely new, and why the revolutions of 2011 are unlikely to simply lapse back into autocracy with a change of faces in the leadership chair. The exact course of each country will of course be distinctive, and the obstacles and setbacks encountered will differ, but the region, like the world, has changed irreversibly. What happens next cannot be precisely predicted, as these events themselves were not precisely predicted. But change is under way.

— Michael Collins Dunn is the Editor of The Middle East Journal and a Scholar at the Middle East Institute.

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Wayne White is currently a Policy Expert with Washington’s Middle East Policy Council. Previously, Mr. White served in the State Department in a number of positions, most recently as the Deputy Director of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research’s Office of Analysis for the Near East and South Asia (INR/NESA), as well as a senior regional analyst. Prior to those positions, Mr. White was the Principal Iraq analyst and head of INR/NESA’s Iraq team and the Chief of INR’s Maghreb, Arabian Peninsula, Iran, and Iraq division and the State Department’s representative to NATO Middle East working groups.

You had a long career in government service, eventually becoming Dep- uty Director of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Re- search’s Office of Analysis for the Near East and South Asia — how did you enter into that line of work, and what was it about that work that kept your interest?

While working on my MA in Middle East History, I passed the Foreign Ser- vice exams with high scores and entered the Foreign Service soon thereafter. Because of the vicissitudes of Foreign Service assignments, I had to spend my first four years abroad in Niger (at least Muslim and heavily influenced by Saharan culture) and Haiti. To reach the Middle East, I was able to cut short my tour of duty in Haiti by volunteering for the US Sinai Field Mis- sion. As a Liaison Officer there, I could spend plenty of time amongst the Egyptian and Israeli armies in Sinai as well as pull numerous stints in Cairo and Tel Aviv/Jerusalem. From there I was invited to accept a position in State’s Bureau of Intelligence & Research (INR) as a Middle East analyst. Wayne White Impressed with my work as editor of INR’s Middle East Situation Report and Iraq Analyst, I was asked to join INR’s permanent staff. Finally with a guarantee of continued work on the Middle East in hand, I signed on.

In your earlier career, you served as a Political Officer in the US Embassy in Baghdad — what was Iraq like then, and did you ever see things the way they are now?

Baghdad in 1983 was, of course, a far more stable, undamaged, diverse and culturally rich environment than it is now, despite Saddam Husayn’s ruthless grip at that time. Reliable information on internal developments was not easily acquired, but numerous foreign missions shared with me highly sensitive information they had gathered because having been INR’s Iraq Analyst for four years at that point, they knew I could help them make sense of it all in messages to their own capitals. Iraq was at war with Iran, but there was little sign of it, at least on the sur- face, in Baghdad. An informed observer had to probe deeper to find resentment against hundreds of thousands of Egyptians entering Iraq to take jobs left behind by drafted Iraqis, the personal distress over appalling losses, and the anguish in especially Shi‘ite Sadr City over the masses of young males mustered for duty at the front.

Having worked in analysis, do you agree with the assessment of some that the recent rapid political changes in the Middle East were “missed”? Or is this a scenario in which the broad outlines were predicted but specific events were not?

State/INR wrote a number of analyses for the Intelligence Community and the US policymaking community beginning in the late 1980’s warning of the need for meaningful political reform, so although the timing of determined moves for change was unknown, we (and our superiors) were well aware a time bomb of sorts was ticking. Despite US urgings, however, most if not all regional governments ignored US entreaties to initiate meaningful reform. We had no way of knowing, however, what would turn out to be the individual domestic — or wider regional — triggers that might cause this situation to explode into major unrest, when, or how widespread.

As the wave of protests that toppled the Tunisian and Egyptian governments continues to roil the Middle East, what do you perceive as the catalyst that spurred action in an area where such popular revolution was long assumed impossible?

Quite frankly, the overarching catalyst for what has been happening was the suffocating, dysfunctional, cor- rupt, and control-oriented authoritarian model of governance holding sway throughout so much of the Mid- dle East. It was, as many in and outside government warned, in large measure the swelling youth population that was most affected by crushing unemployment and lack of opportunity (along with increasing access to the outside world through the information revolution) that finally reached the limits of endurance.

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 5 While other Middle Eastern countries experienced decades of stagnation before their citizens revolted, Iraq has been the site of political tumult and bloodshed for years. With Iraq’s own “day of rage” ending in violence, what do you see as the prospects for any additional change there?

Iraq is an interesting case in the context of the current wave of reform-related unrest around the region. Gov- ernance in Iraq probably is characterized by levels of dysfunction, corruption, and perhaps abuse of authority exceeding even that of some other notorious pre-reform governments as, say, in Egypt. Additionally, despite repeated national elections, the Iraqi governmental elite remains thickly populated by figures gaining promi- nence in exile or by benefiting from the American-dominated period before the formal transfer of sovereignty back in 2004, including Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Consequently, the Iraqi political system really never has matured in the sense of including a broader swathe of politicians and even some basics of the mechanisms of governance have not entirely been worked out. Maliki is concerned, and he should be.

After three-plus decades of work in Middle Eastern affairs, what circumstances in the region have changed to lead to the results we’re seeing, and what conditions must still be overcome in order for countries like Egypt to achieve a functioning, legitimate democracy?

There are many obstacles to successful reform even in states in which the previous government has been over- turned. What must be overcome is a decades-old governmental culture of abuse, waste, and corruption with little sense of truly answering to the people. Also, not to be overlooked, these economies are inefficient, often stagnant, dominated by a class of privileged entrepreneurs close to the government, and saddled with crum- bling housing and infrastructure that would require tens of billions of dollars to begin putting right. Moreover, the reform-related unrest itself has inflicted damage on economies that already would have difficulty provid- ing for the now much greater expectations of the population, notably the lucrative tourist industries in Egypt and Tunisia. With this backdrop, the broad economic hopes associated with the reform agenda are going to be very difficult to fulfill anytime soon on the part of new governments with the best of intentions. Indeed, unmet expectations could result in a frustrating succession of new governments.

With Israel’s long-time reliable neighbor Egypt suddenly up- set, what are your thoughts on the future of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, in which Egypt has occasionally played a role?

Quite frankly, I question whether prospects for genuine progress toward Israeli-Palestinian peace since Mr. Binyamin Ne- tanyahu’s first stint as prime minister in the late 1990’s have been all that good, Egypt’s role aside. Egyptian-Israeli relations will likely become somewhat chillier now, but the Egyptian army would likely be quick to step in to stop any reformist government from engaging in destabilizing actions like calling into question the Israeli-Egyptian Peace Treaty. A fence along the Israeli-Egyptian border north of Eilat, Israel (Photo: Wikimedia user As a longtime foreign intelligence insider, to what extent do Wilson44691) you view the release of classified documents by WikiLeaks as a threat to national security, as it has been called by US officials?

The WikiLeaks affair clearly has damaged US national interests to some degree. It has made available a vast trove of classified communications that were frank in a way that frequently offends governments with which we need to cooperate because they were never meant to go public for many more years. Indeed, some of the contents of WikiLeaks cables probably added to the unrest we currently are experiencing in the Middle East. Some would say all this is to the good, but with the attitudes of emerging new governments toward the US unknown, such judgments are simplistic and premature. Finally, many governments surely will now be more guarded in their closed door exchanges with US representatives for fear of future leaks, reducing the amount of information available to our government with which to make informed decisions.

— Interview by Leah Nagy

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 6 MEJ Author Joshua Stacher on “Reinterpreting Authoritarian Power: Syria’s He- reditary Succession”

Dr. Joshua Stacher is the author of an upcoming article entitled “Reinterpreting Authoritarian Power: Syria’s Hereditary Succes- sion.” Dr. Stacher is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Kent State University.

To begin, tell us a little about your background. What got you interested in the Middle East as an area of study, and the topic of hereditary succession more specifically?

I participated in an undergraduate study abroad program called Semester-At-Sea in the Fall 1997 semester. One of our ports was Egypt. Cairo immediately gripped my affections. It was the most chaotic place I had ever seen. What made the city A poster of President Bashar al-Asad in Da- function stimulated my curiosity. While there, al-Gama‘a al- mascus (Photo: Flickr user watchsmart) Islamiyya carried out the Luxor Massacre and we had to cut our stay short. The debates that broke out about Islam and terrorism intrigued me because of their simplicity. I was hooked immediately and began focusing on everything to do with the Middle East. After returning to the US, I sent my application to the American University in Cairo to study politics before moving to Cairo in August 1998. The plan was to obtain a MA and return. I ended up staying in Egypt around 9 years. I never did understand what made Cairo tick, but that’s fine. There is a widely undisciplined but participatory character about life in Cairo that I hope is never domesticated. It would make it a less interesting place.

Hopefully our readers will enjoy your article, “Reinterpreting Authoritarian Power: Syria’s Hereditary Succession,” when it is released in April, but until then could you summarize your broad point regarding the nature of hereditary succession in Syria?

For too long, political scientists and students of the autocracy have ascribed far too much weight to the individual personality of the person in charge. I believe that the focus on personalities actually constrains our ability to explain authoritarian durability robustly. Thankfully, there is a core of scholars pushing the envelope and studying institutions that underpin authoritarian durability. By exploring a case of hereditary succession, which is supposed to typify the ultimate instance of personalized authoritarian rule, I tried to expose the many complicit agents involved that make it occur.

To do this, I show the work that has been done on Syria’s succession overwhelmingly has focused on the personalities of Hafiz and Bashar al-Asad. Then, I show the other powerful agents such as Ba‘th party members, MPs, the security services, and the military also had a say in the process and were the real implementers of a clean transfer of power. My article’s purpose is to expose the logical shortcomings of research that over- examines the personality of the Al-Asads and, by doing so, draw back the curtain to show a regime working together irrespective of a sitting president’s dynastic ambitions.

In your article, you state that hereditary succession is a “phenomenon on the rise” and that “the evidence indi- cates that the longer an autocratic leader remains in power, the more likely such a regime will experience a hereditary succession.” Do the recent upheavals of authoritarian leadership in Egypt and Tunisia change this?

Absolutely. The most beautiful aspect of politics is the amount of uncertainty built into the game. The uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt demonstrate one way that hereditary successions can be blocked. There are others, as the case of Paraguay shows — an example I reference in my article.

While Ben ‘Ali did not have any male heirs, it was rumored that he had chosen his designated successor. Sustained protests thwarted his regime’s plans, and also unleashed a wave of popular action against the other regional governments that have unjustly governed for the past 60 years.

This was most notable in Egypt where Gamal Mubarak was positioned constitutionally and institutionally to be the leading presidential contender. Yet, people power precluded this outcome. Egypt will be remembered as the first regional state that blocked a father-to-son hereditary republic. Yemen and Libya seem to be joining that club as we speak.

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 7 I believe that what happened in Tunisia and Egypt represents revolutions in that they removed the sitting leader and blocked the regime’s succession plans. Yet, they are incomplete revolutionary processes as the regimes attempt to reconstitute themselves. We do not know outcome of these situations yet. What we can say is that, while the political systems in the Arab world looked like they were about to contribute to the number of hereditary republics, brave people fighting to reclaim their dignity reversed that trend.

Many have asserted that Syria is “immune” to the kind of revolution seen in Egypt and Tunisia, and indeed, calls for a “day of rage” in Damascus went unanswered. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this assessment of Syria’s stability? Does hereditary succession in Syria, orchestrated by the ruling elite, signify a government so entrenched that it cannot be replaced?

I do not believe that any government or regime is irreplaceable or “coup-proof.” Agents and practices com- prise a regime. Their decisions and actions can always be miscalculations that can escalate and threaten the system’s survival. As we have seen — once the miscalculations start, they magnify and the likelihood of more miscalculations increases.

As to assessing the lack of protests in Syria vis-à-vis the other regional states, it is a good question. Why we have not seen similar protests in Syria as in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Algeria, Jordan, and Yemen remains unclear. There is not enough daylight between the events and our ability to assess why these protests occurred when they did. Area specialists and regional scholars did not predict these revolutions, but we faithfully record- ed the symptoms of popular revolt and criticism of the US’s “stability” policy in our research and publications about the region for decades. Syria is just as susceptible as the other states, but it has not taken hold there.

I believe that we can assess why the protests happened in individual states but I have not seen a region-wide explanation at this stage that adequately encapsulates what has transpired. So- cial scientists have reached for explanations of oil or its absence, monarchies versus republics systems, neoliberal economic policy or rentierism, and the elites’ client relationship (or not) to the United States. But there is not one detectable pattern unless you look to the concept of dignity, which is in incalculable and immeasurable. People fighting to reclaim their political and economic dignity while railing against outdated class systems seem to be the common factor. But why now and why in one country and not another: that is harder to explain. An Egyptian Army tank amidst a crowd of protestors in Tahrir Square, Cairo, Janu- Your article demonstrates that it is the ruling elite, rather ary 2011 (Photo: Flickr user nebedaay) than the autocrat alone, that determines the succession of a government. While the unseating of President Husni Muba- rak has been the major focus in Egypt, would your analysis suggest that the country’s elite, and especially its powerful military, will determine the fate of Egypt’s quest for democracy post-Mubarak?

The analysis from the article holds for how Mubarak exited the Egyptian presidency. While the initial protests ended Gamal Mubarak’s chances of becoming the next leader almost instantly, the neoliberal economic team was dismissed and those who commanded the controls over the repressive Interior Ministry became sacrificial lambs to offset popular discontent. Yet, the process played out more slowly of the Supreme Military Council assuming the role of temporary chief executive.

The military was delicate with Mubarak, who by all intents and purposes was determined to stay on until the September presidential elections. They allowed him to take many shots at the goal to stop the protests and when he proved incapable of doing so, they respectfully nudged him out of the palace and to retirement in Sharm al-Shaykh. Had former President Mubarak had his way, he would have stayed — but the behind-the- curtain core of the regime decided the outcome — not the then-President.

The most surprising attribute is how few regime agents were actually involved in determining Mubarak’s fate. It was a limited number of the military’s high brass. There was virtually no input from the internal security services, the ruling party, or other civilian political elites. This shows the degree to which power has been centralized since 1952.

Throughout the events of the recent political upheavals, you have been active on the social networking site

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 8 Twitter (@jstacher). As an academic, have Twitter and other online platforms affected how you get your information, and how you share information? Or do you see it as merely an additional communication tool?

I initially got a Twitter account so that my friends in my running club in Northeast Ohio could communicate. As the revolts in the Arab world began, I recognized the power of information exchanges and flows for potential research topics. I chose to follow some of my friends in Egypt, who are excellent aggregators of information and publications. This enabled me to use Twitter as a way to learn about unfolding events.

I also used Twitter and a tumblr account (http://stacher.tumblr.com/) to publicize my media appearances and my latest publications on the events in Egypt. After a while, if I had a clever contribution in 140 characters or less, I would say it. But I was always conscious that students, friends, and enemies had access to the platform. So I created my “Twitter rule” — if I would not say it in a public venue or classroom, don’t share it with the wider universe.

I understand Twitter as having real benefits but am also respectful of its costs. The payoff for instant information is that it may be untrue or rumor. But if you really know a place and are committed to the people there, tweets can instruct about what is occurring when it is impossible to be there. Social media sites will never replace reality and experiences, but they are informative if used with respect to a situation’s context.

— Interview by Zach Kiefer, Heather Malacaria, and Leah Nagy

The Middle East Journal

The Spring 2011 issue of The Middle East Journal will contain two articles dealing with Syria, two dealing with contemporary Israel, and one historical analysis of the 1949 Armistice between Egypt and Israel. The articles are:

• Joshua Stacher, Kent State University, “Reinterpreting Authoritarian Power: Syria’s Hereditary Succes- sion,” which gives a look at the role played by Syrian elites in Bashar al-Asad’s succession.

• Joshua Teitelbaum, Stanford University, “The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria in the 1940s and 1950s: Founding, Social Origins, Ideology,” a historical study of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria through the creation of the United Arab Republic.

• William F.S. Miles, Northeastern University, “Border Pedagogy in Israel” gives a detailed overview of how Israel’s border issues are treated in school textbooks and atlases.

• Matt Evans, Penn State University, “Exacerbating Social Cleavages: The Media’s Role in Israel’s Religious- Secular Conflict” examines the role of media that caters to different religious groups in exacerbating social divisions between religious and secular Israelis.

• Hilde Henriksen Waage, University of Oslo and Senior Researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), “The Winner Takes All: The 1949 Island of Rhodes Armistice Negotiations Revisited” re-examines UN Mediator Ralph Bunche’s role during the Rhodes Armistice talks between Egypt and Israel in 1949.

• The book review article, by Neil Caplan, will dissect two recent works on the Arab World and the “war of narratives” about the Holocaust.

You can also follow updates from Editor Michael Dunn, as he continues to post daily to the MEI Editor’s Blog at http://mideasti.blogspot.com.

— Michael Collins Dunn

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 9 Beyond the Beltway

MEI scholars have been in high demand and have shared their unparalleled insights on a number of critical issues in the Middle East this winter, especially the massive wave of unrest in the Middle East that has culmi- nated in the downfall of Zine El-‘Abidine Ben ‘Ali in Tunisia and Husni Mubarak in Egypt. Here is just a small sampling of their important contributions.

MEI in the News

The year began with the assassination of Salman Taseer, the governor of Pakistan’s Punjab Province. MEI Presi- dent Wendy Chamberlin was interviewed by Los Angeles’ KPFK Pacifica radio and Voice of America’s Urdu Service on the political turmoil following the assassination. Marvin Weinbaum also appeared on Voice of America’s Urdu Ser- vice and co-authored an opinion piece advocating for the repeal of Pakistan’s draconian Blasphemy Law in the wake of the governor’s assassination, entitled “A Blow to Liberal Pakistan,” that was published by McClatchy News and dis- tributed by the Center for American Progress.

A number of MEI scholars were vocal on the issues of Is- Marvin Weinbaum speaking with Voice of raeli settlements in the Occupied Territories and the release America of Palestinian documents detailing relations with Israel. Wendy Chamberlain, Arthur Hughes, David Mack, Richard Murphy, Edward S. Walker Jr., and Ambassador Philip Wilcox were among the co-signatories of a letter addressed to President Obama concerning the United Nations Security Council’s pending resolution on Israeli settlements in the Occupied Territories. Philip Wilcox published an op-ed for Foreign Policy on the issue, entitled “The US should vote for a UN Security Council Resolution Condemning Israeli Settlements,” Edward Walker was interviewed by NPR on the release of the Palestinian documents, and MEI scholar Daniel Serwer spoke to Al Hurra about the Palestinian effort in the UN Security Council against Israeli settlement building in the West Bank.

The collapse of the Tunisian government in January signaled the first successful popular revolt in the Arab world against a post-colonial authoritarian government. MEI scholars were sought after for their commentary and insights on the uprising.

David Mack was interviewed by a number of news outlets on US-Tunisian relations and the potential of the Jasmine Revolution to spread to other nations in the Arab world, including Foreign Policy, Al Jazeera English, BBC, The National, and NPR. Richard Murphy was interviewed by the Iranian Press/TV for his analysis of the developments in Tunisia. Michael Collins Dunn’s posting on his Editor’s Blog on exiled Tunisian President Ben ‘Ali was cited in the Project on Middle East Democracy’s “The POMED Wire,” and a number of his other posts were quoted in various media outlets.

MEI scholars offered their unmatched expertise and insights on the uprising in Egypt that captivated the world and re- sulted in the end of President Mubarak’s 30-year autocratic rule. Here are some of their highlights.

Edward Walker was interviewed frequently on the Egyptian demonstrations and their implications for the rest of the Arab world. He spoke to numerous media outlets as the protests unfolded, including CNN, the CBS Evening News, NPR, the Wall Street Journal, Al-Jazeera, MSNBC, Fox News, and BBC.

Edward Walker, Jr. on CNN discussing the David Mack gave interviews to a variety of news outlets, including the National Journal, Huffington Post, McClatchy, State of the Union NPR, BBC, and Al-Hurra. He published an op-ed in Foreign Policy, entitled “Hold the Applause,” urging caution in the aftermath of the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutionary fervor.

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 10 Abdallah Schleifer reported on developments on the ground in Egypt since the restoration of the internet. Schleifer granted interviews numerous times to Al-Jazeera, The New York Times, and the CBC, giving his commentary on events as they developed. He also published an article in the Jewish Daily Forward, entitled “Egypt’s Other, Overshadowed Revolt is Demand for Economic Justice.” Schleifer began a blogger column chronicling his experience reporting on the revolution in Forward Newspaper, called “Blogging Egypt’s Upris- ing: Abdallah Schleifer Reports from Cairo.”

Wayne White offered his own expertise on the Egyptian upheaval through interviews with The Christian Science Monitor, Detroit Free Press, The Washington Times, USA Today, the Inter Press News Service, and BBC. He published an article in the National Journal and an article for Gulf 2000, both on the protests and the transition of power in Egypt.

Charles Dunne published an op-ed concerning how the US should respond to the evolving protest movement in Egypt, entitled “The Right Side of History,” inThe Ameri- can Interest. Graeme Bannerman speaking on PBS Newshour

Arthur Hughes also contributed to the conversation on the Egyptian uprisings, giving interviews to radio sta- tions in Los Angeles, France, and Chicago as well as interviews to The Washington Times and ABC News.

Graeme Bannerman offered his expertise on the Egyptian military and the Egyptian protests. He gave interviews to news outlets including NPR, Bloomberg, PBS, Fox News, Al-Jazeera, and the Associated Press. Banner- man’s Policy Insight entitled “Inside the Egyptian Military” written for MEI was republished in The Jerusalem Post, and his article “All Eyes on the Egyptian Military” was published for the United States Institute of Peace.

MEI Vice President Kate Seelye’s editorial entitled “Obama’s Woodrow Wilson Moment” appeared on the front page of the Huffington Post. She urges President Obama to step up and “hit the reset button with the Arab world” as President Wilson did in 1918 in his call for Arab freedom in the Ottoman Empire.

As Egypt settled into a transitional phase under the leadership of the armed forces, the revolutionary spirit born out of the events in Tunisia and Egypt swept across the Middle East. MEI scholars provided valuable insights and opinions on the unprecedented demonstrations in Iran, Yemen, and Libya. Wayne White was interviewed by BBC International on the Libyan protests and was interviewed by USA Today on the protests in Yemen. David Mack was interviewed on BBC World TV on the protests in Libya. Mehrzad Boroujerdi was interviewed by BBC Persian and BBC Arabic on the Iranian protests. Trita Parsi was quoted in The National, comparing the political opposition in Iran to that of Tunisia and Egypt. Finally, Alex Vatanka was interviewed by the BBC, CBC, and Deutsche Welle regarding the unrest in Iran.

Around Town

The massive protests and unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bah- rain, Iran, and throughout the Middle East dominated the news and captivated the world with both optimism and ap- prehension. In the DC area as well as throughout the nation and the world, the MEI scholars were at the forefront of the discussion and analysis of these exciting and complex events.

Two of our scholars took part in the numerous events spon- sored by the Middle East Institute in this dynamic period. MEI scholar Edward Walker spoke on the unrest roiling Egypt and Tunisia and its implications for the region at large with Amb. Wendy Chamberlin discussing “The Future Alan Goulty in a discussion entitled “Examining the Unrest in of Pakistan” at the United States Insititute Tunisia and Egypt.” After Husni Mubarak resigned from the presidency and transferred authority to the Supreme Council of Peace of the Armed Forces, Graeme Bannerman gave a lecture entitled “After the People’s Revolution: An Examination of the Egyptian Military” at MEI.

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 11 David Mack participated in a round table discussion at the International Monetary Fund concerning the protests in Egypt and Tunisia. Zubair Iqbal spoke on developments in Tunisia and Egypt, prospects for democracy, and the US foreign policy in the Middle East in a panel discussion at the American Muslim Alliance Foundation.

MEI continued to be a prominent voice in discussions on political developments in Turkey and its changing relationship with the US. MEI hosted Francis J. Ricciardone, the newly-appointed US Ambassador to Turkey, for a private, off-the-record briefing. At the Turkish Embassy Chancery, George Harris delivered an illustrated lecture as part of the Turkish Embassy Lecture Series, entitled “A Tale of Two Ambassadors: Ahmet Muhtar and Mehmet Munir in Washington.” Gönül Tol lectured at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies on the topic of Muslims in Europe. She also spoke in an International Affairs Forum, called “Is Turkey Ending Ataturk’s Reforms?” Finally, Gönül Tol and Wendy Chamberlin spoke to a group of 25 visiting students and young professionals from Bahcesehir University’s School of Government and Leader- ship in their two-week certificate program entitled “School of Politics, USA.”

Both Wendy Chamberlin and Marvin Weinbaum addressed challenges surrounding Pakistan and Afghanistan this winter. Wendy Chamber- lin appeared on a discussion panel entitled “The Future of Pakistan” at the United States Institute of Peace. Marvin Weinbaum spoke at the Foreign Service Institute on Afghanistan and Pakistan for civilians heading to Afghanistan, and spoke to a group of Japanese diplomats at the Center for Strategic and International Studies about the counterin- surgency in Afghanistan.

Our scholars spoke on a variety of critical issues and challenges throughout the region. Herman Franssen lectured at the Middle East Institute on the impact of changing market forces and policies on Mid- dle East oil. Zubair Iqbal spoke at the US Foreign Service Institute on “South Asia in the Global Context: Economic Issues and Challenges.” David Mack speaking at MEI on US- Philip Wilcox moderated a panel entitled “Israel and Palestine: Are the Libya relations Choices Peace vs. No Peace?” at the John Paul II Cultural Center. David Mack discussed US-Libya relations and prospects for American business interests with US-Libya Business As- sociation Executive Director Charles Dittrich at MEI.

Beyond the Beltway

This winter, our scholars shared their critical insights on issues ranging from unrest in Egypt to Saudi Arabia’s nuclear future around the US and the world.

Philip Wilcox addressed members of the Sarasota Institute of Lifetime Learning in a talk entitled “Israel, Pal- estine, and the United States: Why Is It So Hard to Make Peace?” Roby Barrett did a presentation on “Political Islam in Context: Politics, Religion and Ideology” to a group of 200 at the First Methodist Church in McKin- ney, TX. At the University of Michigan, Molly Williamson participated in a panel discussing the uprising in Egypt in addition to a second panel on oil, the Middle East, and the global economy.

Thomas Lippman presented a paper on Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Future at a conference held at the Georgetown University campus in Doha, Qatar. He also delivered lectures on the subject of Saudi Arabia’s future there and as part of the Big Arts lecture series in Sanibel Island, FL.

— Julia Czaplinski

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 12 The Middle East Institute thanks our 2010-2011 contributors

President’s Circle MEI Members H.E. Issam M. & Leyla Fares Patron Members Sustaining Members Director’s Circle Susan B. Bastress Roderick French Hani K. Findakly Joseph L. Brand Holsey G. Handyside Sandra L. Charles George R. Hoguet Foundations Lois M. Critchfield Sabiha and Zubair Iqbal A. Elizabeth Jones Les Janka Soros Foundation Fatima Kurtz Allen L. Keiswetter Stuart Family Foundation Tomoyuki Oku Michael Lynott Robert H. Pelletreau Jr. David L. Mack MEI Conference Sponsors William A. Reinsch George C. Montgomery Joel Atlas Skirble Christopher W. Murray Platinum Walter Posch American Task Force for Lebanon Justine A. Ruggio American University of Beirut Michael Sterner BAE Systems Michael Thomas BP Philip C. Wilcox Jr. Chevron Consolidated Contractors Company Embassy of Lebanon ExxonMobil Embassy of the State of Kuwait Embassy of the State of Qatar Embassy of the United Arab Emirates Contributing Members Foundation for Middle East Peace The Gabriel Company LLC Betty H. Sams H.E. & Mrs. Issam M. Fares James Arius Roscoe S. Suddarth Issam Fares Center for Lebanon Roby C. Barrett Tracy Szczepaniak Saudi Aramco Earl Clark Lawrence D. Thompson Sultan Qaboos Cultural Center Sharon A. Coleman Edward S. Walker Jr. The Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Frances D. Cook Molly Williamson Studies Dale Dean Brooks Wrampelmeier The Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia Walter Denny Ronald Zwart Wedge Group Benedict F. Fitzgerald Edward Michael Gabriel Gold Gordon Gray Hunt Oil Jane Hart Occidental Petroleum Corporation Colbert C. Held The Carlyle Group T. Parker Jones The Coca-Cola Company Robert V. Keeley The Morganti Group, Inc. John S. Kincannon William A. Kirby Silver Alan Kovski College of William & Mary Bernard L. Krawczyk Embassy of Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Faisal N. Kudsi Raytheon, International Inc. Phebe Ann Marr Shell Oil Company Paul Martin Adrian Massie-Blomfield Benefactors Elizabeth McKune Anne B. Keiser Geoffrey P. Milton J.K. Holman David Nalle Sahouri Insurance & Financial David G. Newton Valmont Industries Philip Olssen David D. Pearce Contributors B. Donovan Pickard Ambassador & Mrs. Edward M. Gabriel Daniel Pippin Arab Banking Corporation John Poole Cadmus Communications William B. Quandt Dutco Group Syed Raza Joel Atlas Skirble John B. Root John P. Rosario

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu 13