AUSTRALIA/ REVIEW

VOLUME 46 No. 4 APRIL 2021

AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL & JEWISH AFFAIRS COUNCIL POST-BALLOT BLUES

After another indecisive election, Israel prepares for difficult coalition negotiations

THIN RED LINES MILITARY A DECADE OF HOSTAGE DRAMA CAMPUSES SAVAGERY How the Biden Administration can confront After Kylie Moore-Gil- Myth and fact about Israel and the bert’s saga, battling to Iranian nuclear blackmail ...... PAGE 21 Palestinian universi- , ten save those still trapped ties ...... PAGE 29 years on ...... PAGE 31 in Iran ...... PAGE 25 NAME OF SECTION WITH COMPLIMENTS

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AIR – April 2021 AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL VOLUME 46 No. 4 REVIEW APRIL 2021 EDITOR’S NOTE NAME OF SECTION his AIR edition focusses on the complex and ambiguous outcome of Israel’s ON THE COVER Tnational election on March 23, and where Israeli politics might go from here Israeli voters walking by political after four indecisive elections in two years. posters and slogans outside an elec- Amotz Asa-El explains why the results of this election look a lot like those of tion polling station in Holon, Israel, the previous three, and explains the difficult coalition negotiations now likely to 23 March 2021. (Credit: Roman occupy Israel for some months. An AIR factsheet looks at the potential compo- Yanushevsky/Shutterstock) nents of any such coalition, while Ariel Ben Solomon reports on the changing role of Israeli Arab parties. Plus, Herb Keinon explores some quirky ironies of the campaign, while Nathan Jeffay witnesses what it is like to vote in a COVID-19 ward. Also featured this month is former senior US official John Hannah offering the Biden Administration a playbook for dealing with Iran’s escalating nuclear blackmail, and Naomi Levin’s look at new efforts to confront Iran’s policy of holding foreign citi- zens like Australian academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert as hostages. Finally, don’t miss a look at the upcoming Palestinian election from the IDF’s top commander in the territories, Lazar Ber- man on what ’s now decade-long civil war has meant for Israel, and Jonathan Marks reviewing an effort to correct misinfor- mation about Palestinian universities. Please give us your feedback on any or all of it at [email protected].

Tzvi Fleischer CONTENTS FEATURE STORIES REGULAR COLUMNS ELECTORAL DÉJÀ FROM THE EDITORIAL CHAIRMAN VU COLIN RUBENSTEIN ...... PAGE 4 ...... PAGE 5 BY AMOTZ ASA-EL WORD FOR WORD As Israel’s twenty-fourth legislature SCRIBBLINGS prepares to assemble, it will again be TZVI FLEISCHER ...... PAGE 6 split down the middle...... PAGE 12 DECONSTRUCTION ZONE HOW TO VOTE IN A COVID WARD EYAL ZISSER ...... PAGE 7 BY NATHAN JEFFAY ...... PAGE 14 ASIA WATCH MICHAEL SHANNON ...... PAGE 7 COMPONENTS OF A COALITION...... PAGE 15 EUROPA EUROPA FOUR CAMPAIGN BACKFIRES DOUGLAS DAVIS ...... PAGE 8 BY HERB KEINON ...... PAGE 17 BEHIND THE NEWS...... PAGE 10 A NEW ROLE FOR THE ARAB PARTIES BY ARIEL BEN SOLOMON ...... PAGE 19 STRANGER THAN FICTION...... PAGE 11 THE THIN RED LINE NOTED AND QUOTED...... PAGE 35 Biden versus Iranian nuclear blackmail BY JOHN HANNAH ...... PAGE 21 IN PARLIAMENT...... PAGE 36 BIDEN’S IRAN POLICY NEEDS MORE STICKS MEDIA MICROSCOPE BY DAVID POLLOCK...... PAGE 23 ALLON LEE ...... PAGE 39 FORMER HOSTAGES UNITED ON IRAN THE LAST WORD BY NAOMI LEVIN ...... PAGE 25 JEREMY JONES ...... PAGE 40 IDF EXPERT ON PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS BY YOAV LIMOR ...... PAGE 27 HOW TO USE OUR INTERACTIVE EDITION

BIBLIO FILE: MILITARY CAMPUSES • Tap/click to return to the Contents page BY JONATHAN MARKS ...... PAGE 29 • All listed articles link to their page. ESSAY: TEN YEARS OF SAVAGERY • Best viewed in your desktop browser or the Books (iOS) or equivalent e-book reader app in portrait mode. Syria’s demise and Israel’s response 3 BY LAZAR BERMAN ...... PAGE 31 AIR – April 2021 Australia/Israel Review Published by the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC)

Editorial Chairman Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM

EDITORIAL Editor-in-Chief Dr TZVI FLEISCHER Senior Contributing Editor JEREMY JONES AM THE VACCINATION NATION Staff Writers ALLON LEE, JAMIE HYAMS, AHRON SHAPIRO, SHARYN MITTELMAN, NAOMI VOTES LEVIN, OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD, ARIEL ZOHAR Publishing Manager MICHAEL SHANNON s widely predicted, Israel’s fourth election in two years appears to have failed to Correspondents ISRAEL: AMOTZ ASA-EL Aprovide a clear and decisive winner. EUROPE: DOUGLAS DAVIS After all the votes had been counted, neither incumbent PM Binyamin Ne- NEW ZEALAND: MIRIAM BELL National Editorial Board tanyahu nor his rivals appeared to have anything like an easy path to a governing KEITH BEVILLE, RABBI RALPH GENENDE OAM, GARY HERZ, MIRIAM coalition. LASKY, STEVE LIEBLICH, RABBI JOHN Outgoing President Reuven Rivlin has until April 7 to select a prime ministerial can- LEVI AC, Hon. HOWARD NATHAN AM, IAN WALLER SC didate to try to form a coalition, and has hinted he is in no rush. The person given Rivlin’s AIJAC mandate then has 28 days to form a government and can potentially receive an extension. National Chairman If he or she fails, the mandate can then be given to someone else. In other words, in a MARK LEIBLER AC best-case scenario, Israel is at the beginning of a process likely to last more than a month, NSW Chairman PAUL RUBENSTEIN but which may last considerably longer than that. Executive Director Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM Most Israelis will understandably find this outcome very frustrating after the two-year Director of International & political logjam that has created a situation whereby their representatives in Community Affairs JEREMY JONES AM seem to have spent more time campaigning than governing. Policy and Research Coordinator Yet perhaps the upcoming weeks will allow passions to cool, and encourage political Dr TZVI FLEISCHER Associate Director of Public Affairs parties to tone down their rhetoric, iron out differences and find a way to avoid a fifth & Operations JOEL BURNIE election that is surely the last thing the country needs. Senior Policy Analysts Perhaps it will also allow Israeli political and opinion leaders to reflect on the self- AHRON SHAPIRO, JAMIE HYAMS, ALLON LEE, NAOMI LEVIN, SHARYN evident need for intelligent electoral reform to prevent the country from continuing the MITTELMAN chronic political instability of recent times. A governing coalition that could unite for the Policy Analysts OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD express purpose of developing and passing such reforms, thus guaranteeing the current National Media & Public Affairs Officer impasse could never recur, would likely win the lasting gratitude of much of the weary ARIEL ZOHAR Israeli electorate. Multimedia Designer AREK DYBEL Meanwhile, there are numerous other important takeaways from this election Events Coordinator HELEN BRUSTMAN OAM campaign. Administration Firstly, the disappointing turnout among Israel’s Arab voters should not overshadow MELBOURNE: ROSEMARY SANDLER, RENA LANGBERG some genuinely encouraging signals coming from this sector. Most Zionist parties in- : LOUISE DE MESQUITA cluded Arab Israelis high on their electoral list, while Arab party politicians openly dis- Israel Liaison PETER ADLER cussed the prospect of working with an Israeli government, rather than reflexively oppos- Founding Chairmen ISADOR MAGID AM (OBM) ing them, as in the past. As Tzvi Fleischer notes in this month’s Scribblings column, Arab ROBERT ZABLUD (OBM) voters today appear to be overwhelmingly in favour of Arab political parties either joining HEAD OFFICE the next Israeli government or supporting one from the outside “in order to achieve ben- Level 1, 22 Albert Road, South Melbourne, VIC 3205, Australia efits for the Arab community.” Telephone: (03) 9681 6660 Fax: (03) 9681 6650 The result is the small Arab Ra’am party, which does have a worryingly Islamist out- Email: [email protected] look, looks to be in a position to potentially play kingmaker, post-election. SYDNEY OFFICE 140 William Street Already guaranteed equality under the law since Israel’s founding, Israel’s minorities East Sydney, NSW 2011, Australia Telephone: (02) 9360 5415 are increasingly asking their leaders to enhance their political and socio-economic engage- Email: [email protected] ment with the Jewish majority, and the entire country stands to benefit. SUBSCRIPTIONS On the other hand, the relative electoral success of the controversial Religious Zionist Please send all remittances, changes of address and subscription inquiries to: party, projected to receive six seats, is troubling. RZ is an amalgam of three smaller par- Australia/Israel Review Level 1, 22 Albert Road ties, two of which – and – frankly should be beyond the political pale. South Melbourne, VIC 3205, Australia ISSN No. 1442-3693 Otzma Yehudit consists of the disciples of the late racist extremist Rabbi Meir Kahane, Print Post Approved – 100007869 while Noam promotes anti-LGBTQ views. 4 www.aijac.org.au The possibility that representatives of these parties could now find their way into

AIR – April 2021 positions of influence in a potential government is anath- demonstrating that the ties transcend simple politics. ema to most Israelis and virtually all friends of Israel. As the Emirate’s former Foreign Minister Anwar Gar- Finally, this election was understandably centred on gash recently tweeted, “from the UAE’s perspective, the the coronavirus pandemic; Israel’s mixed performance in purpose of the Abrahamic Accords is to provide a robust handling this crisis last year; and Israel’s world-leading vac- strategic foundation to foster peace and prosperity with EDITORIAL cination campaign to bring it under control this year. the State of Israel and in the wider region,” independent of Netanyahu rightly sought “Much of the credit for Israel’s stunning the composition of the Israeli political credit for working vaccine success must also go to Israel’s Government. tirelessly to secure supplies to Meanwhile, after being on make the vaccination success robust, modern, hi-tech health care system track to be the world’s first story possible. However, it that ensured that the lifesaving shots were fully vaccinated country, the should not be forgotten that administered to the populace efficiently” “start-up nation” is also poised much of the credit for Israel’s to spearhead a global eco- stunning vaccine success must also go to Israel’s robust, nomic revival and apply its knack for innovation to health modern, hi-tech health care system that ensured that the and medi-tech, COVID-safe commerce and other pursuits lifesaving shots were administered to the populace effi- that will meet the needs of a post-pandemic world. ciently and that data on the vaccine’s effects could be col- Israel is much more than the 120 representatives it lected in real time for scientific study to benefit the world. voted into office on March 23, or the prime minister that The big picture is that, while the Israeli political system these individuals will ultimately select. These are simply has been suffering from dysfunction, the country’s core part of a larger enterprise and broad-based social contract institutions in the economic, social, health, education and in which every Israeli, whatever their multiethnic and mul- defence spheres have risen to the occasion. ticultural background, is a stakeholder. Israel’s defence agencies have overcome the challenge Over the past year, in particular, those bonds have been of operating without an annual budget and maintained tested, and sometimes strained, through lockdowns, pro- vigilance against an array of threats, particularly from tests, and accusations and recriminations between different Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza and, of course, sectors. Regardless of what happens in the political sphere never taken an eye off Iran’s dangerous and illegal nuclear over the coming few months – a Netanyahu-led govern- program. ment, a different government, or even yet another election Israel’s improving relations with the Arab world have campaign – Israel will doubtless not only muddle through continued apace despite ongoing political uncertainty, but manage to thrive.

WORD “Ra’am’s approach is to not rule out anyone who doesn’t rule us out. If a ruling party makes contact, Ra’am will hold the process FOR WORD appropriately and respectfully.” Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra’am party, which appears “My thanks to the citizens of Israel! You have given the and positioned to play a “kingmaker” role after the Israeli election (Times the Right a massive win under my leadership… It is clear that a of Israel, March 25). clear majority of Israeli citizens are right-wing, and they want a strong and stable right-wing government that will preserve Israel’s “Regarding the #JCPOA, Iran is in no rush. We are very economy, Israel’s security and the Land of Israel… Love you!” patient… If they implement the policy Iran has announced, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu after polls closed on we will return to our commitments. If they don’t, things will March 23 (Twitter, March 24). continue the way they are going today.” Iran’s Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the 2015 JCPOA “As things stand, there will not be a government with the Kah- nuclear deal (Twitter, March 21). anists… and homophobes… we’ll wait for the results but we’ll do everything to create a sane government in Israel.” “The United States firmly opposes and is deeply disappointed by Yesh leader on election night (Times of Israel, March this decision. The ICC has no jurisdiction over this matter. Israel 23). is not a party to the ICC and has not consented to the Court’s jurisdiction... The Palestinians do not qualify as a sovereign state “We chose to fight, and we will continue to struggle for our and therefore, are not qualified to obtain membership as a state values and remain part of the national leadership.” in, participate as a state in, or delegate jurisdiction to the ICC.” Israeli Defence Minister after exit polls showed his US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the International Criminal Blue and White party outperformed expectations (Times of Israel, Court’s (ICC) decision to open an investigation into Israeli actions in March 23). the “State of Palestine” (US State Department, March 3). 5

AIR – April 2021 anyway – and it is likely to have a profound effect on Israeli politics, and the role Israeli Arabs can play in it. This is illustrated by a poll of Israeli Arabs conducted in early March by the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish- COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION Tzvi Fleischer Arab Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern and African Studies at . It found A STORY OF SUCCESS that a stunning 87% of Israeli Arab voters would be in fa- , head of Israel’s party – a coali- vour of Arab political parties either joining the next Israeli tion of three parties whose voters are overwhelmingly Is- government, or supporting one from the outside, after the raeli Arabs – is neither a big fan of nor a defender upcoming election, “in order to achieve benefits for the of Israeli government policies. The leader of the commu- Arab community.” nist faction of the Joint List, Odeh says he doesn’t This is a big jump from previous surveys – and flies in “accept the Zionist idea.” He says the “Arab Palestinian in the face of the traditional behaviour of predominantly Arab Israel” suffers “from systematic and political parties in Israel. In the past, systemic discrimination,” but is also a they have generally concentrated on “part of a people which is under oc- stridently campaigning for Palestinian cupation” since 1967. He is extremely nationalist goals – such as the estab- critical of recent Netanyahu-led lishment of a Palestinian state in the governments and has called Binyamin West Bank and Gaza – and ruled out Netanyahu “a dangerous psychopath joining any Israeli government (in the who knows no boundaries.” 1990s, Arab-majority parties did for a But he had this to say in an Is- time provide outside support for the raeli TV interview during the recent Rabin Government). campaign: The survey found that 46% of When I look at the Rambam Hospital [in the respondents say that, in order to ] I see that 31% of the doctors are achieve benefits for the Arab com- Arabs. munity, an Arab party should be In the Rothschild Hospital, there are 15 ready to join any governing coalition departments, eight of them are headed by Ayman Odeh (Credit: Wikimedia Commons) that emerges after the elections, and Arabs. another 18% say they should only join When I look at the Technion [Israel’s prestigious technology a government led by the Centre-Left. Around 21% of the university] I see that 23% of the male students are Arabs. 35% respondents favoured an Arab party offering to support the of the female students are Arabs. government from outside in exchange for benefits. When I look at the University of Haifa I see that 46% of the Only 13% of respondents supported the traditional students are Arabs. stance of the Arab parties of mostly refusing to join or sup- In high tech, in the last five years alone, there’s an increase port any Israeli government. of...1300% in participation of Arabs. Another takeaway from the poll is that Israeli Arabs Do you understand? Do you understand what is happening? clearly want their political representatives to focus primar- We are a successful population! Successful! ily on bread and butter issues. Odeh is right: Israeli Arabs are increasingly successful A solid majority of those surveyed (58%) said the most and integrated into the Israeli mainstream, putting paid to important priority for Israeli Arab politicians should be those ridiculous claims about supposed “Israeli Apartheid”. implementation of a government plan to combat violence Indeed, regular readers of this column will note that I in Arab communities – where there is a serious problem have cited many of the same statistics here. with criminal gangs. Moreover, the burgeoning success of the Israeli Arab So most Israeli Arabs today want their political repre- minority has happened largely under the various Netan- sentatives to focus on getting concrete benefits for Arab yahu-led governments in power since 2009. citizens by being ready to enter the argy-bargy of Israeli As I have also documented in this column, several coalition politics. This shift is almost certainly a product of government policies under various Netanyahu-led govern- the educational, economic and social success of the Israeli ments certainly contributed to that record of success. Arab minority that Odeh identified. This is not to say Odeh’s anger at Netanyahu is completely Non-Arab Israeli politicians are recognising the shift. unjustified – Netanyahu has repeatedly used rhetoric that is Several Zionist parties have been appealing for Arab votes very unhelpful to Arab-Jewish coexistence and integration. in the current election campaign – and Netanyahu has been 6 But as Odeh’s statistics show, integration is proceeding apace foremost among them, campaigning extensively in Arab

AIR – April 2021 areas, despite his past ugly rhetoric regarding Arab vot- those days, “Doctor Behind the Microphone”. This featured ers. The Adeneuer poll suggests this may have worked – it Israeli doctors who would answer questions from listeners found Netanyahu’s Likud could have picked up perhaps 1.5 throughout the Arab world. seats from Arab voters. Thus, as Arab propaganda at the time called for Israel’s

Meanwhile, Israeli Arab politicians are also starting to re- annihilation and the Jews to be thrown into the sea, Israel’s COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION spond to these shifting views among their constituents. The answer to the waves of hostility and hatred was to broad- Joint Arab List split, with the Islamist party Ra’am running cast medical advice that even saved lives on occasion. on its own this election because its leader, Mansour Abbas, Decades have passed since then, but it appears the reality has made it clear he might be willing to make a political deal in the Middle East hasn’t changed all that much. The major- with Netanyahu for concrete benefits. The other Joint List ity of people living in Iran, Syria, and even Lebanon can factions reject this, but have been suggesting they could join only dream about the advanced medical care Israelis receive. a centre-left government without Netanyahu. Their rulers, however, prefer nuclear missiles instead of So, Odeh is right – the Israeli Arab community is suc- public health and vaccines. Case in point: Iranian cleric cessful. And what’s even better, their growing success is Naser Shirazi decreed at the outset of the pandemic that if an indication of Israel’s overall success as a society. It is, Israel develops a vaccine for the virus, it must be rejected. of course, an imperfect one in numerous ways, but the Israel hasn’t developed a vaccine for the virus, although improving integration and success of the large Arab minor- it plans to build vaccine manufacturing plants that, beyond ity is a sign of Israel’s solid foundations in the present, and its own citizens, could also provide for its neighbours. potential for an even better future. In the meantime, however, it is granting a humanitarian gesture, even if via a Russian middleman, to the people of Syria. Humanitarian gestures of this sort are a matter of routine for Israel and, sadly, are a drop in the ocean in light of the humanitarian crisis in Syria. Yet, although not enough to alter the reality in the country, they do help Eyal Zisser improve Israel’s image in the Arab world. As always, Israel’s strength isn’t just a matter of its A PANDEMIC “LIGHT UNTO THE military and scientific might, but also its righteousness, NATIONS” specifically in terms of its humanitarian gestures toward its In late February, the Arab press highlighted two stories neighbours. about Israel and the fight against the coronavirus. One of the stories was about the vaccines Israel purchased Prof. Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Depart- from Russia for the people of Syria, while the other story ment at Tel Aviv University. © Israel Hayom (www.israelhayom. focused on figures published by Israel’s Health Ministry, com), reprinted by permission, all rights reserved. whereby Israel’s successful vaccination campaign, for Jews and Arabs alike, has led to a dramatic drop in the morbidity rate. Not every Arab media outlet was rejoicing. Outlets in Iran, Lebanon and Syria, along with the Qatari satel- lite network Al Jazeera, chose to ignore this news painting Michael Shannon Israel in a positive light. In the information age, however, stories can’t be blocked and regardless, the majority of NAMING RIGHTS other Arab outlets, official and unofficial, such as those in Can one faith claim exclusive usage rights over their the Gulf states, chose to run the items, even prominently. term for the Divine Being, enforceable by law? This is still Incidentally, a google search in Arabic for the word an unsettled question in Malaysia, where sensitivities in “coronavirus” points to the dominance of Israeli websites the Malay Muslim majority continue to create needless in Arabic, such as those belonging to the Israeli Health disputes that chafe against the founding principles of a Ministry or Israel’s national health funds, and the figures multi-ethnic, multi-religious federation. they provide readers about the virus, the dangers it poses The latest flare-up on this question began with a ruling and the vaccines. This is an example of the light Israel is on March 10 in the Kuala Lumpur High Court that ended presently shining across the Middle East. a decades-long ban on Malaysian Christians using the This is somewhat evocative of days past, before the word “Allah” to refer to God, as well as three other Arabic internet age and even before television came into our lives, words, in educational publications. when listeners across the Arab world would eagerly tune High Court Justice Nor Bee Ariffin ruled that the 1986 into the Voice of Israel in Arabic, for the popular show in Home Ministry directive barring the use of “Allah,” “Baitul- 7

AIR – April 2021 In response, James Masing, Deputy Chief Minister of Malaysia’s Sarawak state where Christians are the majority, called the appeal demand “ridiculous.” “I believe the judge had considered all aspects of reli- COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION gious and cultural sensitivity when making the judgment,” Masing said in a statement. “Thus, it is a most ridiculous demand by any political party or religious group in a multi-religious country like Malaysia.” Yet, within a week, the Government did indeed lodge an appeal against the ruling. The submission said that the The Kuala Lumpur High Court (Credit: Wikimedia Commons) Government, along with Home Minister Hamzah Zainud- lah” (house of God), “Kaabah” (holiest shrine) and “solat” din, decided to appeal because they were “not satisfied” (prayer) by Christian publications was unconstitutional with the ruling by the Kuala Lumpur High Court. because it restricted religious freedom. It was also illegal This development was welcomed by Muafakat Nasional, and irrational, Justice Nor Bee said. saying, “this appeal is in line with the wishes of the coun- The word “Allah” was long ago adopted into the Bahasa try’s majority Muslim community” and that, “multiracial Malay language, and has been used for more than 400 years and multireligious harmony must be preserved without by Malay-speaking Christians in the country, especially giving any room to issues that could jeopardise or disrupt those living in Sabah and Sarawak. the existing stability.” The unspoken presumption is that Yet, in the past few decades, many conservative Malay- Malay Muslims will decide the terms of such “stability”. sian Muslims have claimed that non-Muslim Malays could Some pushback has come from federal and state par- use words like Allah to “confuse” and even convert Muslims liamentarians from Sabah and Sarawak from 10 different to another religion. Recent years have seen huge demon- parties of opposing political alignments, 54 of whom have strations by Muslims who carried banners with slogans issued a statement asking the Federal Government to dis- such as “Allah is just for Muslims.” continue its appeal against the High Court’s decision. The High Court ruling was regarding a judicial review “We call upon all political parties to not exploit the application filed by Jill Ireland Lawrence Bill, a Sarawak High Court’s decision for narrow political mileage… Mus- Christian, 13 years ago. The authorities had seized eight lims in Sabah and Sarawak are supportive of and never feel religious CDs, with Malay titles that included the word threatened by their Christian siblings, cousins and friends “Allah,” from Jill Ireland in May 2008 when she returned praying to Allah, the one God in all Abrahamic faiths,” the from an overseas trip. Ireland filed the judicial review lawmakers said in the statement. application to challenge the seizure and to seek a declara- So the dispute over word usage hangs in the balance tion on her constitutional right to use the word “Allah” in once again – a political football due to the present Gov- Christian publications. ernment’s dependence upon support from its Malay base, In 2014, the High Court held that the seizure was PAS and UMNO. The bigger question is whether the legal wrong but did not decide on the constitutional issues system will affirm that the fundamental condition of the raised. A year later, the Court of Appeal ordered the Home 1963 union of Malaya, Sarawak and Sabah as equal partners Ministry to return the CDs to Ireland, but told the High – freedom of religion – still holds. Court to hear the case with regard to its constitutional aspects. The subsequent verdict found that Jill Ireland was guaranteed protection from religious discrimination. Reaction against the ruling was immediate. PEMBELA, an umbrella group representing Muslim NGOs, issued a strongly-worded statement expressing “shock Douglas Davis and disappointment” with the High Court’s ruling, which, they said, had “great implications” for Muslims. “This decision COURTROOM DRAMA gives room for abuse” of the word “Allah,” said the statement. Four European states – Germany, the Czech Republic, “It will open wide the door for apostasy and pluralist thought.” Hungary and Austria – broke cover last month to publicly Muafakat Nasional, a group that consists of the United declare that they would oppose a planned investigation of Malays National Organisation (UMNO) – Malaysia’s oldest Israeli activities in the Palestinian territories by the Inter- party and a partner in the ruling coalition – and the con- national Criminal Court (ICC). The four Europeans are servative Pan-Islamic Malaysian Party (PAS), expressed “se- in mostly good company among the international dissent- rious concern” at the High Court decision, and demanded ers, with the United States, Canada, Australia, Brazil and 8 the Government lodge an appeal. Uganda. More are expected to announce their opposition.

AIR – April 2021 Israel’s Attorney-General, Avichai Mandelblit, ex- Israeli war crimes, but they are likely to find, as they have pressed Israel’s reaction to the court’s decision: “Accord- found in the past, that such nugatory and declarative ICC ing to the Oslo Accords, there is no State of Palestine, it decisions will not advance their cause by a single iota. doesn’t have the jurisdiction to judge Israelis. This is an The undergraduate style of political chicanery, which NAME OF SECTION unfortunate and mistaken decision.” Mandelblit added: is the hallmark of the ICC, is also the operating principle COLUMNS “This court was established to investigate atrocities… of its erstwhile sibling, the UN Human Rights Council Israel does not commit atrocities; we have laws of war, we (UNHRC). Since its inception in 2006, the UNHRC has have a glorious judiciary of world renown.” adopted resolutions condemning countries on 171 occa- German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas spoke for most sions – 90 of which targeted Israel. The terror-supporting, European dissenters when he expressed opposition to the human rights abusing regime in Teheran has received a court’s decision, noting that: “Our legal view on jurisdic- mere 10, while such states as China, Russia, Pakistan and tion of the ICC… remains unchanged. The court has no Zimbabwe have received none. jurisdiction, because of the The ICC decision to go absence of the element of Pal- after Israel again comes on estinian statehood required the eve of the retirement of by international law.” the court’s Chief Prosecutor, Canadian Foreign Minister Fatou Bensouda. In a state- Marc Garneau noted that, “the ment, she declared that “any creation of a Palestinian state investigation undertaken by can only be achieved through the office will be conducted direct negotiations between independently, impartially the parties. Until such ne- and objectively, without fear gotiations succeed, Canada’s or favour.” longstanding position remains Bensouda faced criticism that it does not recognize a The International Criminal Court appears determined to take on from an independent investi- Palestinian state and therefore non-member states defending themselves from terrorism (Credit: gation last year over her lead- does not recognize its acces- UN Photo/Rick Bajornas) ership of the ICC, including sion to the ICC.” allegations of bullying and sexual harassment amongst staff Meanwhile, US Vice President Kamala Harris reaf- under her watch. Some have speculated that, by pursing Is- firmed her country’s opposition to an ICC investigation. rael, she might be trying to avoid scrutiny of her own role. In a telephone call with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin According to one source, Bensouda “appears to be taking Netanyahu, she expressed opposition to the ICC’s attempts these inappropriate steps on her way out of the door in an to exercise its jurisdiction over Israelis. She also empha- effort to distract from her mismanagement of the ICC and, sised Washington’s “unwavering commitment to Israel’s perhaps, to attempt to insulate herself from legal jeopardy security.” by appealing to anti-US sentiments.” ICC judges angered Israel last month when they de- In any case, Bensouda appears to be going beyond the clared that the court’s jurisdiction extended to the West ICC’s mandate to pursue both the United States and Israel, Bank and Gaza Strip, potentially clearing the way for the non-members of the ICC, for how they defended them- prosecutor to open an investigation into Israeli military ac- selves against terrorism. tions and the construction of settlements in the West Bank While Israel and several world powers – the United and east Jerusalem. States, Russia, China and India – are not members of the Netanyahu dubbed the decision a “perversion of jus- ICC, any decisions by the court could make life difficult tice”. It was, he added, “the epitome of antisemitism and for officials and military leaders. The ICC does not put hypocrisy.” states on trial, but it can target political and military of- Similarly, Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin called the ficials with international arrest warrants while they are decision to investigate Israel “scandalous… we will not ac- travelling abroad. cept claims against the exercise of our right and our obliga- Europeans are most strongly attached to the ICC, tion to defend our citizens.” and there is likely to be a serious lobbying campaign to At the same time, the Palestinian Authority praised the persuade Europe as a whole to recognise Palestine as a court’s decision to investigate Israel, saying that it would national state capable of securing the investigation, pros- be ready to provide “any assistance required … to realise ecution and indictment of Israel at the ICC. justice for the Palestinian people.” On the other hand, the most effective way to counter the The Palestinians in Ramallah might have rejoiced at the ICC’s illegal action may be to persuade European powers news that the ICC was planning to investigate supposed which oppose the move to simply defund the Court. 9

AIR – April 2021 BEHIND THE NEWS BEHIND THE ROCKET AND TERROR HAMAS INTERNAL that Iran had started feeding uranium REPORT ELECTIONS hexafluoride into a cascade of ad- The first rocket to have been fired In mid-March, Hamas’ internal vanced IR-4 centrifuges at the Natanz from Gaza into Israel since Jan. 19 elections surprisingly saw the current underground plant. The Iranians are landed in an open field near Beersheva Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, also planning to install additional on March 23, Israel’s election day, needing four rounds to secure a win advanced centrifuge models. Both of shortly after PM Binyamin Netanyahu in the Gaza district. Sinwar faced these actions represent violations of visited the city. strong opposition from Nizar Awadul- the nuclear deal. There were several attempted lah, who is considered close to Iran A February IAEA report con- terrorist stabbings in the West Bank, and an ally of Sinwar’s internal oppo- firmed that Iran has amassed 14 including on Feb. 22 and 24, and two nents in Hamas, Khaled Mashaal and times the JCPOA limit on enriched on March 8. Ismail Haniyeh. uranium, almost enough to construct In addition, Jamila al-Shanti three warheads – including uranium became the first woman to be nomi- enriched to 20% purity, a level which ISRAELI STRIKES IN SYRIA nated to Hamas’ political bureau, the brings Iran much closer to 90% mili- Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in organisation’s top decision-making tary grade purity. Syria have allegedly continued, with body. strikes reported around Damascus on Feb. 28 and another on March 17. ISRAEL OIL SPILL Iran was blamed for an attack on IRAN ALLEGEDLY HIDING Israeli and oil industry inves- an Israeli-owned cargo ship, the Helios NUCLEAR PARTS tigations revealed that an oil spill Ray, in the Gulf of Oman on Feb. 25, Western intelligence sources al- responsible for contaminating the which caused severe damage but no leged on March 23 that Iran is hiding shores of Israel, the Gaza Strip and casualties. A report in the Wall Street key components used in its clandes- Lebanon emanated from a leaking Journal in March alleged that since late tine nuclear weapons project from Libyan tanker, the Emerald, which 2019, Israel itself had attacked at least UN inspectors. was smuggling crude oil from Iran to a dozen Iranian tankers delivering oil According to the intelligence offi- Syria in contravention of international to Syria. cials, centrifuge components, includ- sanctions. ing parts, pumps and materials such In mid-February, beaches on the as carbon fibre, have been concealed Mediterranean coast from the Sinai PALESTINIAN PRISONER in 75 containers in various locations Peninsula to southern Lebanon were CHIEF ADMITS MASSIVE across Iran. Satellite images show the polluted by tar, and large numbers of TERROR STIPENDS containers being moved between dif- marine animals killed, as a result of On March 4, PLO Commis- ferent sites belonging to the Atomic the leak of an estimated 1,000 tons sioner for Prisoners’ Affairs Qadri Energy Organisation of Iran. of petroleum. It is considered Israel’s Abu Bakr confirmed to the Times of The officials also claimed that worst ecological disaster. Israel that the PLO spent “around some of the components stored in the NIS 50 million [~A$20 million] per containers were illegally procured month,” or approximately NIS 600 after the 2015 nuclear deal – a direct JERUSALEM HOSTS million (A$240 million) in total in breach of that agreement. KOSOVO EMBASSY, CZECH 2020, on payments to Palestinians DIPLOMATIC OFFICE imprisoned by Israel for security of- On March 14, Kosovo became fences and their families. This practice IRANIAN ENRICHED the first European, and also the first is condemned by Israeli officials as a URANIUM UPDATE Muslim-majority, country to estab- “pay-for-slay” scheme, and strongly Iran continues to escalate its lish an embassy in Jerusalem. The opposed by the Australian, US and breaches of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear opening followed Kosovo’s establish- other governments. deal. ment of diplomatic ties with Israel in The International Atomic Energy February. 10 Agency (IAEA) reported in March Meanwhile, on March 11, Czech

AIR – April 2021 Prime Minister Andrej Babis attended coronavirus cases in Israel, up from This campaign commenced fol- the opening of his country’s diplomatic 754,998 on Feb. 22, with a total of lowing the arrival in Israel of 61,000 office in Jerusalem, supplementing 6,109 deaths, up from 5,596. vaccines earmarked for the Palestin- its embassy in Tel Aviv. The open- As of March 21, more than five ians, from COVAX – the international ing marked a step towards the hope million Israelis – 57% of the popula- vaccine-sharing mechanism backed NEWS BEHIND THE expressed by Czech President Miloš tion – had received their first dose of by the World Health Organisation. Zeman in 2018 of relocating the Czech a coronavirus vaccine, and 4.5 mil- Around 40,000 of the COVAX doses embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. lion, or 50.4%, had also received the reached Ramallah on March 17, while second dose. the rest were sent to the Gaza Strip. In the Palestinian ruled areas of the The PA said that hundreds of ISRAEL-UAE JOINT West Bank, there had been 225,976 thousands of further vaccine doses are INVESTMENT FUND cases, up from 173,635 on Feb. 22, expected soon from various sources. The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, and 2,458 deaths, up from 1,976. In However, the PA has come under Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and Gaza, there had been a total of 59,330 fire for nepotism and corruption in Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Ne- cases as of March 21, up from 54,460 its vaccine campaign, after admitting tanyahu announced the establishment as of Feb. 21. it diverted some COVID-19 vaccina- of a joint US$10 billion fund aimed at tion doses meant for medical work- boosting strategic sectors, including ers to VIPs, including the Palestinian energy, manufacturing, water, space, VACCINES FOR THE national football team, Government health care and agri-tech. The fund POLITICALLY CONNECTED ministers, presidential guards and will be financed from both the gov- After long delays, on March 21 the members of the PLO Executive ernment and private sector and build Palestinian Authority (PA) began its Committee. on the between the coronavirus vaccination campaign. PA Meanwhile, Israel has vaccinated two countries. President Mahmoud Abbas received a some 105,000 Palestinians who work Most of the funds will reportedly shot on March 20. in Israel. be invested in infrastructure projects, including a deep-water port in Eilat posed by Hezbollah and its allies, which and a railway via Saudi Arabia and dominate the government and control Jordan to Haifa port. many parts of Lebanon’s economy. Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy which is FLAGGING ONE’S basically running a ‘state within a state’ in POWERFUL CONNECTIONS INTENTIONS Lebanon for the benefit of its masters in On March 8, Israel’s Energy Min- Normally, when there is a demon- Teheran – including by amassing tens of ister signed a memoran- stration against foreign interference in a thousands of rockets and missiles aimed dum of understanding with his Greek country, it is because the demonstrators at Israel to be fired when Iran deems it and Cypriot counterparts to start believe that a foreign power or powers strategically advantageous. In such a war, construction of the world’s longest are obtaining too much influence in their of course, the Lebanese people would undersea power cable. This cable will country. They want it to stop, arguing suffer greatly. link Israel’s electricity grid with that their country should be governed solely So imagine the irony when on Feb. 28, of Cyprus and Greece, and greatly for the benefit of its own citizens. Hezbollah operatives held a loud demon- improve energy security for Israel and In the tragic reality of Lebanon today, stration against “foreign interference” in Cyprus. Both these countries remain however, things are done a little differently. Lebanon. And if an Iranian proxy dem- largely dependent on fuel imports for Lebanon has become a basket case – onstrating against “foreign interference” power production, leaving them vul- economically bankrupt, with a level of isn’t enough evidence of a lack of self- nerable to supply cuts and shortages. corruption making resuscitation of the awareness, along with Hezbollah flags, the economy well-nigh impossible. Hoping to demonstrators flew Iranian flags as well. overcome these seemingly insurmount- This perhaps underlines graphically COVID-19 NUMBERS able problems, Lebanon’s Maronite what has been obvious for a while – Hez- By March 7, statistics showed that Christian Patriarch, Bechara al-Rahi, bollah doesn’t see Lebanon as separate to Israel was registering 71% fewer has proposed that the UN sponsor an Iran, but as a subsidiary of it. COVID deaths and 45% fewer seri- international conference to resolve the So on the bright side, perhaps that ous illnesses than at the peak of the economic crisis and address the political demonstration did serve the people of epidemic in January. As of March 23, dysfunction underlying it. Lebanon – by blatantly flagging the terror there had been a total of 828,764 The Patriarch’s idea is strongly op- group’s true loyalties and intentions. 11

AIR – April 2021 COVER STORY NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES ELECTORAL DÉJÀ VU

POST-BALLOT BLUES

by Amotz Asa-El

n March 23, Israelis went to Othe polls for the fourth time in two years only to vindicate King Solomon’s insight that “there is nothing new under the sun” because “only that shall hap- pen which has happened.” The bottom line of what has happened is that, after yet an- The expected distribution of seats in Israel’s new Knesset other election, Binyamin Netan- yahu will likely continue dominating Israeli politics as he In an inversion of the pandemic politics that tilted has over the past dozen years, yet will also have to use all American swing voters against Donald Trump, Netanyahu’s his considerable political skills to establish anything like a pandemic record appears to have satisfied a critical mass of stable government. the electorate. As Israel’s 24th legislature prepares to assemble, it will True, Netanyahu did lose votes compared to the elec- again be split down the middle. Netanyahu’s potential gov- tion in March 2020, sliding from 36 seats in the outgoing erning coalition is very close to 50% of the Knesset, but Knesset to 30. The difference, nearly a fifth of his previous short of a majority. following, appears to have mostly migrated to Sa’ar. However, the anti-Netanyahu bloc remains in no posi- Meanwhile, Bennett’s predicted following is only one tion to form a government, since the election’s potential seat higher than the six seats he won last year. kingmaker, the (“Rightwards”) party, will not back Both candidates attacked Netanyahu’s pandemic record, a government whose majority depends on anti-Zionist charging that it was chaotic, over-centralised, and ex- Arab lawmakers. That constraint places the one clear bot- pensive – fueling a NIS160 billion (A$64 billion) budget tom line on the early results – a coalition of disparate anti- deficit, equal to 11.7% of the GDP, through extended Netanyahu parties looks very unlikely. unemployment benefits as well as compensation packages The key reason for this is the precipitous decline of to businesses suffering under the lockdowns. two parties’ electoral fortunes – former defence minister Initially, this criticism seemed effective, but then came ’s Yamina, and former education minister the coronavirus vaccinations. Gideon Sa’ar’s . Each of these parties at one Success now fell into Netanyahu’s lap three times. point looked like getting more than 15% of the vote in Medically, the vaccines proved effective quickly, result- opinion polls, providing a potential 30% base for an anti- ing in plunging infection rates and the gradual, but steady, Netanyahu coalition. Yet, on election day, the two ended up removal of lockdowns. Logistically, Israel managed to with just over 10% of the vote, combined. vaccinate 5.14 million people within 10 weeks, more than The cause of both parties’ nosedive is the same: the half the population, and the number keeps rising. And 12 pandemic. politically, Netanyahu is seen, even by his opponents, as the

AIR – April 2021 even those driven by Netanyahu’s indictments on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. Last year the pair’s combined ticket garnered 33 seats. Now, they have retained between them 25 of

those seats. The balance seems to have migrated both NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES right and left – namely, to Bennett and Sa’ar and to Labor and , the pair of left-wing parties which surprised pundits by winning seven and six seats respectively. The big loser on the left was the Joint List. One component of this federation of primarily Arab-supported parties split away. Ra’am, or the , ran on a separate ticket and gained four seats, giving it a potential “kingmaker” role. Having also suffered from low voter turnout among Israeli Arabs, the Joint List plunged from 15 to six The coronavirus pandemic was a central issue for many Israeli voters when seats. they went to the polls (Credit: Roman Yanushevsky/Shutterstock) he governing coalition Netanyahu hopes to one who led the vaccination drive – personally calling the Tcobble together would be based on his two CEOs of vaccine manufacturers and personally negotiating ultra-Orthodox allies, and , agreements with them that landed the vaccines in Israel which maintained their representation of a combined early and in massive quantities. 16 Knesset seats, plus former transport minister Bezalel Whatever the political outcome of this election, this Smotrich’s party’s six seats and Ben- was the central issue from the viewpoint of many vot- nett’s seven seats. ers, and certainly the decisive factor behind Netanyahu’s Asked how Likud hopes to govern with less than 60 personal achievement in recovering from dismal-looking of the Knesset’s 120 seats, Settlements Minister Tzahi polling last year. Hanegbi said he hoped Gantz would end up in the coali- In addition, Netanyahu arrived at this election with tion. Some pundits also suggested that some in Sa’ar’s dramatic diplomatic breakthroughs in his pocket, having faction – all former Likud members – might defect and obtained normalisation agreements last year with four return to the Likud fold under Netanyahu. Arab and Muslim countries – the United Arab Emirates, Meanwhile, some factions might merge. One such po- Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, with the help of Trump Ad- tential pair is Lapid and Gantz. Another such duo are Ben- ministration mediation. nett and Sa’ar, both ideological nationalists who seem to Though none of these countries borders Israel, their be in agreement on pretty much everything except on who combined size and weight are such that Israelis feel the his- should succeed Netanyahu as leader of the Israeli Right. toric regional siege under which the nation has lived since Sa’ar himself has become a persona non-grata in Likud, its creation has been broken. since his challenge to Netanyahu – unlike Bennett’s – has Beyond the specific value of these deals, Netanyahu’s been sweeping. Sa’ar has derided Netanyahu for his insis- supporters felt that none of his opponents enjoys the kind tence on retaining his post despite his indictments, and of international status he was able to deploy in making accusing him of nurturing an autocracy and a personality these unexpected breakthroughs happen. cult. Bennett has been critical, but has made his criticisms Such concerns about national and international status much more about policy and administration, rather than especially affected Netanyahu’s main challenger on the personality. left – leader of the opposition and former finance minister Also persona non-grata with Netanyahu and the Likud is Yair Lapid, who heads the centrist (“There is a former defence minister , whose Yisrael Future”) party. Beitenu (“Israel our Home”) has apparently retained its Lapid won some 15% of the vote, a respectable seven seats. Lieberman is marked for having refused to join achievement by any yardstick, and more than twice the a Netanyahu-led coalition two years ago, thus triggering predicted following of his estranged ally Defence Minister the subsequent continuum of three inconclusive elections Benny Gantz and his Blue and White faction. since then. Lapid and Gantz parted ways a year ago, when the lat- At the same time, Netanyahu knows full well that a ter decided to join Netanyahu’s Government, arguing that narrow coalition, besides being vulnerable in parliamen- the pandemic demanded setting aside political divisions, tary votes, will also be held hostage by several right-wing 13

AIR – April 2021 radicals. The most notable of these is Religious Zionism’s Some election officials have even gone mobile for the Itamar Ben-Gvir, a follower of the late racist extremist sake of those who can’t move and taken ballot boxes to Rabbi Meir Kahane who demands drastic reforms to the bedsides. Israeli judiciary, and his colleague , who is viru- As patients cast votes at hospitals’ COVID ward sta-

NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES lently anti-LGBTQI. tions, home-based virus patients headed to 409 special Netanyahu also knows that he will almost certainly not polling places, while quarantined people have been taking be able to find a majority for legislation that would affect advantage of 342 stations especially designated for them. his personal legal situation, such as a law that would delay From the virus section at Hillel Yaffe, Nidan spoke to his corruption trial until he leaves office. Bennett will op- through an intercom that connects his pose such an idea – even though, like much of the Israeli ward to the control room. right, he is critical of what is depicted as the liberal bias He said: “It feels good to be voting,” and revealed that and activist interventionism of Israel’s High Court. he was backing Likud. Israel will therefore have to wait – certainly for some Soon after kippa-wearing Nidan moved away from the weeks and possibly for months – to see whether Netanyahu ballot box, an Arab woman in a hijab arrived to cast her can use his personal victory to create a stable coalition vote. against the odds. It would be a feat he has accomplished in In the ward’s control room, the nurses who monitor the past, but never from a starting point as unfavourable as patients sat alongside election officials: one employee of this one appears likely to be. the Central Elections Committee and two party activists The alternative would almost certainly be a fifth election who oversee proceedings, as per Israeli election protocol. within hardly two years, perhaps in October. This would be They have a more complex process to check than at a prospect that would further puzzle the rest of the world – regular polling stations. Each voter is given two envelopes. making many wonder how it is that a country that knew how In one, which has no information to identify them, they to build the start-up nation and how to be the first in the place a piece of paper that shows their choice of party. world to vaccinate its way out of a global pandemic, doesn’t This goes inside an envelope with their identity card know how to build a stable government. number, which is discarded before votes are counted, but is necessary to verify that a ballot hasn’t also been cast in their name at their regular polling station. When voters arrive, the envelopes are passed through HOW TO VOTE IN A an airlock into the virus ward. The inspectors, Ofra Mines and Rahamim Michael, sat COVID WARD at a table surrounded by the cookies and snacks that are traditionally provided for those checking polling proce- by Nathan Jeffay dures, along with large bottles of hand sanitiser. When they woke up a few hours earlier and reported for duty, n hospital pyjamas and with oxygen tubes running into neither of them had any idea they had been assigned to a Ihis nose, 80-year-old David Nidan shuffled to the ballot COVID-19 station. box on the morning of Tuesday, March 23. “I was worried,” said Mines, a 62-year-old Likudnik. Eytan, the official managing the polling station, kindly “At first I thought I’d actually need to go inside the corona- helped the patient to keep his balance. He was wearing a virus ward, and that concerned me, but it still feels strange hazmat suit to protect him from the SARS-CoV-2 virus sitting here, behind the glass.” that has kept Nidan in the hospital for the last two weeks. She reported a mix of emotions: joy at seeing people In an election shaped by the COVID-19 crisis, from vote and sadness at seeing the harsh reality of a coronavirus campaign talking points to social distancing rules at every ward. “I’m happy to see everyone, including sick people, polling station, it was the most literal manifestation of being given the chance to vote, but it’s hard to see life on politics in a time of pandemic: a polling station in a virus the ward,” she said. ward. One of the nurses, Ahmed Abuhaja, also said he was A regular Israeli polling station caters to 600 people. happy to see patients voting, but reported that there was The one where Nidan voted, at Hillel Yaffe Medical Centre no election buzz or discussion on the ward. Asked if pa- in Hadera, is open for hours to serve just 11 potential tients had been talking politics, he said: “Not at all; people voters. here just want to get better and get home.” For most of the patients who voted in such stations – around 700 were eligible in total – the journey down the Nathan Jeffay is the Times of Israel’s health and science corre- corridor was the farthest they have ventured from bed spondent. © Times of Israel (www.timesofisrael.com), reprinted 14 since hospitalisation. by permission, all rights reserved.

AIR – April 2021 THE COMPONENTS OF A COALITION NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES If Israel is to have a new government, a coalition of at least 61 Knesset seats will have to be assembled from the 13 par- ties that were elected to the Knesset following the March 23 election. Here is the AIR’s guide to those parties, who they say they will and won’t sit in coalition with, and their pre- election pitches to voters.

Party Orientation Leader Estimated Previous Coalition-building Pre-Election pitch seats Knesset stance

LIKUD Centre-right Binyamin 30 36 Ruled out coalition Likud chairman Binyamin Netanyahu: “This is a choice between Netanyahu with Joint List a stable right-wing government or a dysfunctional rotation govern- ment under Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid who will only take Israel back... “I have already seen Israel through two economic crises. I am ready to do it again if you elect me. I ask you to put your faith in me so that I can complete the great tasks I am working on: boost- ing the economy, maintaining security, halting Iran once and for all, and bringing in four additional historic peace agreements that will change the future of Israel.” Source: Israel Hayom, March 21

YESH Centrist Yair Lapid 17 13 Refuses to enter Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid: “We will form a government that ATID a coalition with will work for the public – an honest, national-liberal government, Netanyahu one whose members are not implicated in criminal cases, free of radical forces, and focused on health, the middle class, and real solutions to real problems. A government that will restore the pub- lic’s trust because it will tell the public the truth and because it will show it that it is working hard for it out of a sense of mission...” Source: Israel Hayom, March 21

SHAS Ultra- Arye Deri 9 7 Promised to only Shas chairman Arye Deri: “Will Israel maintain a Jewish char- Orthodox join a Netanyahu-led acter that preserves Jewish values, Shabbat, tradition, kosher, government and state conversion, or will it turn into a state of all its citizens – devoid of the character of Judaism, Shabbat and tradition?... A vote for Shas is a 100% vote for a government headed by Netanyahu. Therefore, those who seek to see Netanyahu as prime minister and at the same time embrace Judaism, tradition, the Jewish character of the state, and the protection of the weak… should vote for Shas.” Source: Israel Hayom, March 21

BLUE Centrist Benny 8 12 Refuses to enter a Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz: “I am a soldier of the AND Gantz Netanyahu-led govern- State of Israel. I heeded the call and joined an emergency national WHITE ment, open to all other unity government with Netanyahu. I did that because Israel was at arrangements war and I am first and foremost its soldier… I have paid a heavy political and personal price but we wrestled half of the govern- ment away from Netanyahu and became the gatekeepers of Israeli democracy, security, and economy… “I vow to push for the formation of a government led by honest people… to safeguard our home from the inside, as well as against external threats.” Source: Israel Hayom, March 21

YAMINA Right-wing Naftali 7 3 Promised not to join Yamina chairman Naftali Bennett: “These elections are about a Bennett a government led vote for the Right or for a fifth election rife with division, hatred, by Yair Lapid or one boycotts and terrible chaos that will tear our people apart… that depends on the Cynical politicians are racing toward social polarisation and a fifth support of anti-Zionist election… parties “Have you lost sight of our people? Don’t you care anymore about the millions of students drained from a year of distance learning? About the residents of the Negev terrorised by Bedouin crime? About the thousands of business owners who have been left with nothing? About the 500,000 unemployed…? Our problem is cal- lous politicians who only care about themselves.” Source: Israel Hayom, March 21 15

AIR – April 2021 UNITED Ultra- Moshe 7 7 Strongly prefers United Torah Judaism leader : “We are fighting TORAH Orthodox Gafni a Netanyahu-led against the rule of the High Court of Justice and the violation JUDAISM government, but does of Jewish tradition. We are fighting for the weak, the periphery, not exclude other the needy, the sick and the elderly. We are keeping the Jewish arrangements embers burning in this country. With your help, we will be able to COVER STORIES NAME OF SECTION keep Israel as a Jewish state with real values – the everlasting values of Judaism.” Source: Israel Hayom, March 21

YISRAEL Secular, Avigdor 7 7 Refuses to enter a Yisrael Beitenu chairman Avigdor Lieberman: “I am [speaking BEITENU right-wing Lieberman government with for] the only truly disadvantaged minority in Israel, the 44% of the either Netanyahu or citizens who define themselves as secular. The secular public… Arab parties civil marriage and civil divorce, wants public transportation and opening businesses on Saturday… if the previous elections were about yes or no Bibi, today the choice is either ultra-Orthodox or non-ultra-Orthodox.” Source: maariv.co.il, March 21

LABOR Centre-left Merav 7 2 Refuses to join Labor chairperson : “I vow to carry on with the Michaeli a Netanyahu-led vision of , along with the rejuvenated Labor slate… government, or be in a convergence of the old and the new, people who faithfully coalition with Likud represent Rabin’s vision and now champion the truly important or the Religious Zion- causes: diplomacy, social-economic issues, protecting the judi- ist party ciary, and changing the ties between religion and state.” Source: Israel Hayom, March 21

JOINT Union of Ayman 6 15 Promised not to sup- Joint List chairman Ayman Odeh: “The equation is clear, when LIST communist Odeh port a Netanyahu-led the Joint List gets more than 10 seats Netanyahu will not succeed and Arab or Likud-led govern- in forming a far-right government… The Joint List is the only list parties ment, or sit in coali- that won’t support Netanyahu and won’t compromise our people’s tion with Religious goal by overthrowing this racist who deals with our people with Zionist party hostility and belittling.” Source: Facebook, March 21

RELI- Right-wing, Bezalel 6 2 Expected to support a Religious Zionist chairman : “Only a vote GIOUS national- Smotrich Netanyahu govern- for the can ensure that a real right-wing ZIONIST religious ment, refuses to enter government is installed. The political map is clear: without the government with Religious Zionist party the Left will again take centre stage and either Meretz or Joint Israel’s future character will be called into question.” Source: List Israel Hayom, March 21

NEW Right-wing Gideon 6 0 Won’t join a coalition New Hope chairman Gideon Sa’ar: “As long as Prime Minister HOPE Sa’ar with Netanyahu remains in office, Israel will be unable to emerge from the political, social, and economic instability that plagues it. A change is essential… “What Israel needs today is a leader with experience, skills, judgment, and responsibility. It needs a leader with a profound understanding of the various policy issues and the ways in which the government and the Knesset work. No less important, Israel needs a leader who will unite it, connect the parts of our society and place the good of the public above all else.” Source: Israel Hayom, March 21

MERETZ Secular, Nitzan 6 4 Refuses to join a Meretz chairman Nitzan Horowitz: “Only Meretz will be able left-wing Horowitz Netanyahu-led gov- to prevent Netanyahu from forming a government, and only ernment, or work with Meretz will allow for the formation of a new government… Likud or Religious Meretz proudly champions the fight for human and civil rights. We Zionist party advocate equality, freedom and peace… Being a leftist in Israel nowadays is not easy. But think of the Knesset… without Meretz and without the Left’s voice. That is a horrifying thought even for those who are not left-wing voters.” Source: Israel Hayom, March 21

RA’AM Arab Mansour 4 4 Possibly willing to Chairman Mansour Abbas via party spokesperson: “Ra’am is an Islamist Abbas support a Netanyahu- Arab voice [in the Knesset … which is] clear and traditional. We led government under would work for real change. The elections are a choice between certain conditions, Ra’am and the Joint List. The elections are about an important open to all other question [relevant] to all the members of our society, which is: options Do we want to be negative to each other or to people in general, or do we want to [treat] all [Arabs] as brothers or the sons of our own skin?” Source: Facebook, March 22 16

AIR – April 2021 go to waste as it was unlikely to make it past the electoral FOUR CAMPAIGN threshold. Gantz, incensed by the advertisement, said BACKFIRES those who signed it “shot him in the back.” But rather than accusing those who signed the letter

of abandoning him and shooting him in the back, Gantz NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES by Herb Keinon should have sent them a bouquet of flowers. Because in ev- ery major poll since that letter, Gantz passed the electoral he Israeli election campaign that mercifully came to a threshold, polling consecutively at between four to five Tclose on March 23 was unremarkable. seats and ended up finishing with eight. There were no issues truly debated, other than whether What happened? Barak and fellow security experts have Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is a saint or a scoun- written open letters in the past, including in support of the drel. There was no excitement. There was little fire. withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and in favour of the Iranian There was coronavirus, which dominated everything – nuclear deal. Barak has also warned that Netanyahu was but it just forced the various campaigns to recalibrate their leading Israel into a diplomatic tsunami. Reality, in each of message. those cases, turned out significantly different. One senior Instead of Likud saying that Netanyahu was uniquely political journalist wrote that if the list of officers that positioned to advance Israel diplomatically – “a league signed that letter said X, then Y would probably happen. above the rest” – they said he was uniquely positioned to It has proven true this time. Once they called on Gantz to procure the coronavirus vaccine. stop, Blue and White’s numbers started to rise. And instead of the anti-Netanyahu forces saying that Netanyahu’s thirst for a coalition to give him immunity Lieberman’s anti-haredi campaign from his corruption trial was colouring his decisions on Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu Party has had a issues of war and peace, they were saying that his personal fascinating trajectory. It entered the Knesset in 1999 with considerations and legal woes were colouring his decisions four seats, seen as a niche party representing Russian- regarding dealing with COVID-19. speaking immigrants. But there were certain moments in the campaigns – Benefiting from the certain steps or advertising campaigns – that were meant huge influx of immigrants to evoke one response, but very well may have elicited the in the 1990s, the party opposite. grew to 11 seats in 2006 Here’s a look at four of election campaign 2021’s boo- and 15 in 2009, with Li- merang moments. eberman at one time talk- ing of himself as a future Former security heads call on Gantz to withdraw from race prime minister. Apparent opportunity backfired: The first three weeks But then the Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beitenu of February were very party’political fortunes (Credit: David Cohen/Shutterstock) bad for Benny Gantz and began to fade, dropping to only six seats in the 2015 elec- his Blue and White Party. tions and five seats in the April 2019 election. In six of 19 major polls It is then that Lieberman – known until that time taken in the first 20 days primarily for his far-right anti-Arab rhetoric and positions of the month, the Blue – shifted gears to stridently anti-ultra-Orthodox (haredi) Feeling vindicated: Blue and White and White Party – which rhetoric. With his natural voting base – elderly Russian head Benny Gantz (Credit: Gil Cohen won 33 seats in the previ- immigrants – dying out, and the new generation of Russian Magen/Shutterstock) ous election – was not speakers no longer in need of an immigrant party, he badly passing the 3.25% needed to get into needed a new niche. He found it in the segment of the the Knesset. Gantz, holding the title of alternate prime population angry and frustrated over haredi control over minister, seemed to be rapidly losing elevation. religious life in the country, the refusal of the ultra-Ortho- And then, on February 21, a group of 130 former of- dox to be conscripted en masse into the army and perceived ficers and security heads – led by former prime minister “religious coercion”. and defence minister , former Mossad head Lieberman targeted the anti-haredi vote and it worked, Danny Yatom and former chief of staff Dan Halutz, took with his party winning eight seats in the September 2019 out a full-page advertisement in the country’s newspapers election, though it then dropped to seven last year. calling on Gantz to step down. And then coronavirus hit, and latent anti-haredi feelings “Benny, enough,” they declared, saying that if he did not burst forth with a passion as segments of the ultra-Ortho- drop out of the race, then the votes for his party would dox population openly flouted the COVID-19 regulations. 17

AIR – April 2021 The atmosphere was perfect for an anti-haredi campaign, For 39 consecutive weeks – regardless of the weather, or and Lieberman went at it full force, culminating in his the country’s coronavirus rate of infection – an alliance of comment in mid-March that Netanyahu and the ultra Or- groups with names like “Crime Minister” and the “Black Flags” thodox should be carted out in a wheelbarrow to the trash have been demonstrating in front of the Prime Minister’s

COVER STORIES heap. office and at various other intersections around the country – Interestingly, however, this campaign did not help Li- declaring Netanyahu corrupt, demanding that he resign, and eberman’s party that much at the ballot box. He won only claiming to be the true guardians of Israeli democracy. seven seats, no better than he did the last time around. These demonstrations over the last months provided Yet while Lieberman’s anti-haredi campaign did not powerful optics and created an atmosphere that one can give him a significant lift in the polls, it very well may have argue contributed to the eventual collapse of the Govern- boosted his nemesis: the ultra-Orthodox parties. With many ment. It is not immediately clear, however, what effect ultra-Orthodox voters angry at the community’s political these protests – especially the large one on March 20 – leadership for its behaviour during the crisis, and with talk had on the voters. that some in this generally very disciplined voting bloc were Those attending the protests who agree with the mes- likely to either stay home or vote for the ultra-conservative sage that Netanyahu is a crook who must be removed at Religious Zionist party, Lieberman’s attacks likely incentiv- all cost are highly motivated to go out and vote, and will ised more ultra-Orthodox Israelis to come out and vote. surely do so. Lieberman’s attacks – aimed at burying the haredi par- Paradoxically however, they may also have motivated ties – may actually have ended up strengthening them. apathetic Likud voters who might otherwise have decided to stay home on election day – except that they were put Weekly protests against Netanyahu off by the cacophony of the protests and voted, if only to A crowd of tens of thousands of people – organisers demonstrate that a prime minister is removed at the ballot put the number at 50,000, while the police estimated box, not by weekly protests. about half of that – gathered yet again on March 20, the Saturday night before the election, around the corner Netanyahu’s hunt for a diplomatic coup from the Prime Minister’s residence on Balfour Road in It’s not enough for Netanyahu to have projected himself Jerusalem. over the years as master of diplomacy, he wants the Israeli people to feel it, taste it and internalise it. That explains why the US recognition of the took place two weeks before the first election in this cycle in April 2019, why he met with Russian Presi- dent Vladimir Putin in Sochi days before the second elec- tion in September 2019, and why he went to Washington to receive then-president Donald Trump’s “Deal of the Century” just before the election last March. But this year, without Trump able to give him diplomatic gifts, and with Putin not delivering something sufficiently dramatic, Netanyahu sought a high-profile visit to the United Arab Emirates in the waning days of the campaign. Such a visit would have highlighted the Abraham Ac- cords – Israel’s freshly minted agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco – which to Likud’s chagrin have not made a significant dent in this campaign. Had coronavirus not monopolised the country’s bandwidth over the last year, these accords – and Netanyahu’s role in se- curing them – would likely have played a more prominent role in this election. So Netanyahu tried to go to the UAE. The effort back- fired, however, as Jordan would not let his plane fly over on March 11; and the Emiratis subsequently made it known that they were not interested in meddling in the Israeli campaign; and that hosting some kind of summit between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, Netanyahu and senior 18 US government officials would constitute such meddling.

AIR – April 2021 As a result, no visit took place. Instead, some of the Surprisingly, according to the survey, the most qualified shine was taken off Netanyahu’s image as “Mr. Diplomacy”. candidate for prime minister in the Arab sector is Netan- Netanyahu procured COVID-19 vaccines, and that should yahu (24.9%), followed by of the Ta’al faction have been enough for the campaign. But instead, the cam- of the Joint List (14.3%), and then Joint List chair Ayman paign reached for more. As a Talmudic dictum goes, “Try to Odeh, who heads the Hadash faction of that party. It also NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES grab too much, and you will end up with nothing.” found that half of the Arab voters (46%) support an Arab party’s participation in any government after the elections. Herb Keinon is diplomatic correspondent at . In the end, the Joint List – made up of the Communist © Jerusalem Post (www.jpost.com), reprinted by permission, all Hadash, nationalist Balad and Tibi’s Ta’al Party – received rights reserved. six Knesset seats while Abbas’ Ra’am squeaked into the Knesset with four seats.

‘A deeper reason at play for the breakup’ A NEW ROLE FOR ARAB Shaheen Sarsour, veteran Arab political observer and a former adviser to various Arab Knesset members, told JNS PARTIES IN ISRAEL? that the Joint List did not want the UAL to remain part of it, even though Abbas preferred to stay inside the Arab by Ariel Ben Solomon block. “This was due to several factors – the major one being sraeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s effort to the other parties in the Joint List were angry at Abbas Igain Israeli Arab votes by emphasising his practical pol- for his outreach to Netanyahu,” he said. “I think there is icy towards them of aiding with issues that concern them a deeper reason at play as well for the breakup, which is appeared to gain some traction in the election campaign. that it became a war of egos between Abbas, Odeh and the He was seen in the media sitting with Bedouin sipping popular politician Ahmad Tibi.” tea, visiting the Bedouin city of Rahat in the Negev and “Odeh and Tibi were probably unhappy seeing Abbas in playing soccer on the beach with Arab children – all to the spotlight and gaining all of the attention for his warm- court a new swath of voters. ing to Netanyahu,” continued Sarsour. Mansour Abbas, the head of the United Arab List Party The UAL, as part of the Islamic Movement, has an ex- (UAL, also known by its Hebrew acronym, Ra’am) – the tensive social network and was able to utilise it for political political branch of the southern branch of the Islamic gain, similar to other Muslim Brotherhood groups. Movement – broke off from the Arab Joint List of parties According to Sarsour, the position that Abbas took was: after angering them by seeking to improve ties with Netan- “We are fed up with always being angry and attacking the yahu and the Government. government. We want to influence the government on is- Arik Rudnitzky of the Israel Democracy Institute and sues that affect the Arab public like violence and the lack of Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Centre told JNS that “it housing in the Arab sector.” appears that many in the Arab public do not believe that It is probably unlikely that Mansour Abbas will join a the Knesset can further their interests.” Netanyahu government – not only because, pre-election, “But they do believe that the government is the real Netanyahu himself has dismissed the idea but also because power-broker,” he said. his right-wing coalition partner, the Religious Zionist Against the backdrop of the social and economic crisis party and the Yamina party, might refuse to sit in such a following the coronavirus pandemic in the past year and government. increasing bloodshed due to rising criminal incidents in the Moreover, despite the cordial relations between Abbas Arab sector, “quite a significant portion of the Arab voters and Netanyahu, Ra’am is part of the Islamic Movement will support Netanyahu, hoping that he will take care of that seeks to Islamise Israeli Arabs and, in the long term, to their burning needs.” transform Israel into an Islamic state. So any partnership An in-depth analysis of a survey carried out by the Kon- could only go so far. rad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation at the Still, in the post-election coalition negotiations, Abbas Moshe Dayan Centre reveals that those Israeli Arabs who looks set to play a kingmaker role by either joining the intended to vote for Likud paid less attention to the party’s anti-Netanyahu block or not. ideology and political platform than those who intend to vote for the Joint List. Ariel Ben Solomon is the Deputy Online Editor at JNS.org, and “In other words, the ‘Likud Arab voter’ is not necessar- the former Middle East Correspondent for the Jerusalem Post. © ily identified with Zionist ideology, but rather, is interested Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org), reprinted by permission, all in getting results here and now,” explained Rudnitzky. rights reserved. 19

AIR – April 2021 NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES

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AIR – April 2021 facility built deep inside a mountain that Iran kept hid- The Thin Red Line den from the world until it was exposed by the United States in 2009, and where the JCPOA had banned all enrichment until 2030. As a technical matter, enriching

Biden versus Iranian nuclear blackmail uranium to 20% represents 90% of the work required to NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES produce weapons-grade material. Iran is also significantly increasing its enrichment ca- by John Hannah pacity. For months, it has been conducting research and development on up to nine different models of advanced ran’s recent rebuff of US President Joe Biden’s offer centrifuges and in numbers that far exceed the JCPOA’s Ito commence talks on getting both Washington and limits – gaining new knowledge and expertise that no Teheran back into compliance with the Iran nuclear deal return to the JCPOA can now reverse. has, at least temporarily, thrown a spanner into Biden’s Perhaps more worryingly, Iran has recently begun to strategy for quickly reversing Iran’s relentless march deploy hundreds of these advanced centrifuges in cas- away from the restrictions of the 2015 agreement – for- cades at its two main enrichment facilities, Natanz and mally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Fordow. Some are already operational. These second and (JCPOA). third-generation centrifuges are anywhere from three to While efforts to get Iran to the negotiating table will seven times more efficient than the older models per- no doubt continue in the coming weeks, it’s long past mitted under the JCPOA, allowing them to produce far time for the United States to larger quantities of enriched start thinking seriously about uranium in a much shorter what it will do to contain timeframe. Once their instal- Iran’s expanding nuclear lation is complete, Iran’s program in the meantime. enrichment capacity will be How long is the United States almost three times larger than prepared to simply stand by the JCPOA cap. and watch as Iran continues, Another hugely provoca- month after month, to ratchet tive step recently taken by up its nuclear activities, inch- Iran, again in flagrant viola- ing ever closer to some kind tion of the JCPOA, was its of threshold nuclear weapons decision to begin produc- capability? The Biden Administration cannot afford to allow Iran to continu- ing uranium metal – one ing ratcheting up its nuclear activities while it waits for Iran to In response to the Trump return to the JCPOA nuclear deal (Credit: Shutterstock) of whose uses can be form- Administration’s withdrawal ing the core of a nuclear from the JCPOA and reimposition of draconian sanc- weapon. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany, tions, Iran has been engaged since the summer of 2019 the JCPOA’s European participants known as the EU-3, in a steady, sustained campaign to violate the JCPOA’s said they were “deeply concerned” since the move had constraints. Taken individually, each breach can appear in- “no credible civilian use” and carried “potentially grave cremental and not overly concerning. But taken together, military implications.” cumulatively, they paint an increasingly alarming picture. Also of profound concern was steps Iran took in As detailed in a recent report by the Institute for February to drastically curtail inspections by the Interna- Science and International Security, Iran’s stockpile of tional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). A far more acute low-enriched uranium (below 5% concentration of crisis was averted only when Rafael Grossi, the agency’s uranium-235) is now 14 times greater than the JCPOA’s Director-General, rushed to Teheran to negotiate a last- limits. If further enriched closer to 90% purity, that minute understanding that, at least temporarily, averted might already be enough for up to three nuclear bombs. a situation that in his words “would not have been revers- Iran’s breakout estimate – defined as the time required ible or recoverable” in terms of non-proliferation, and to enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for its first where the IAEA “would basically be flying blind without nuclear device – has dropped from one year under the any idea what would be taking place in terms of enrich- JCPOA to potentially as low as 2.7 months today. ment activities.” For more than a year, Iran has been enriching uranium Grossi said that the arrangement gave the IAEA “the to 4.5%, breaching the nuclear deal’s limits of 3.67%. minimum that it needs” to conduct necessary verification But beginning in early January, it took a qualitative leap and monitoring activities, but only for a period of up forward by resuming enrichment to 20% at Fordow – a to three months and only if, in the interim, the United 21

AIR – April 2021 States grants large-scale sanctions relief to Iran. If that to 20% enrichment. Trump threatened upon abandoning doesn’t happen, Grossi acknowledged, Iran is threaten- the JCPOA in 2018 that Iran “would face very severe ing to destroy critical monitoring data being gathered consequences” if it responded by restarting its nuclear through technical means on its nuclear activities, rather program. But when Iran actually called his bluff repeat-

COVERNAME OF SECTION STORIES than providing the information to inspectors. edly, Trump did little about it. The only tool in his kit bag The IAEA is also in a significant conflict with Iran was unilateral sanctions and when a barrage of desig- over several sites that were once linked to Iran’s secret nations unprecedented in US history – around 1,000 nuclear weapons program. In violation of Iran’s obliga- Iranian entities were ultimately targeted during Trump’s tions under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), single term – did nothing to slow the methodical growth none of the sites were ever declared to the IAEA. All of Iran’s enrichment efforts, the Administration had no of them have subsequently been razed and sanitised as answer, no plan B. part of a massive concealment effort. Much information For its part, Israel had a far more serious approach to about the sites only became known as the result of an the alarming uptick in Iran’s nuclear activities. Not only archive of nuclear weapons documentation that Israeli did its intelligence services pilfer the nuclear archive, but intelligence miraculously spirited out of Teheran in 2018. they allegedly were also the hand behind the audacious After much Iranian stonewalling, the IAEA gained ac- destruction last July of an above-ground factory for the cess to four of the sites over the course of 2019 and 2020 mass assembly of advanced centrifuges, as well as the assas- and found evidence of man-made uranium particles at sination of the scientific mastermind behind Iran’s nuclear three of them. Pressed to explain why, Iran’s answers to weapons program in November. But all to very uncertain the IAEA have so far ranged from “not technically cred- effect. Indeed, Iran is now rapidly building a new centri- ible” to unresponsive. The bottom line: in addition to the fuge factory, this time deep inside a mountain, while the alarming expansion in Iran’s declared nuclear program, assassination triggered Iran’s parliament to pass a law that there is now strong reason to suspect that Iran is conceal- actually accelerated the regime’s JCPOA violations. ing from the world undeclared nuclear material once linked to its clandestine nuclear weapons effort. ne approach for limiting Iran’s further nuclear ex- Put it all together and it’s clear that the situation is Opansion that the United States has yet to consider, getting very dangerous. And there’s a strong chance that but needs to start, is setting some clear red lines that, it will get worse still. if crossed, would trigger a far more punishing response For its part, the Biden Administration hoped it would against Iranian interests. Last June, I suggested that those be able to stem the brewing crisis by rapidly negotiating lines might be drawn at Iran starting to enrich again to a return to the JCPOA. That clearly hasn’t happened. 20% or significantly curtailing IAEA inspections. Obvi- But even if a negotiation gets going, it’s increasingly ously, no such messages were delivered and seven months clear that it will likely be a much more complicated, later, Iran has blown through each of those thresholds messy, and drawn-out process than many JCPOA sup- with impunity. porters anticipated. So, the question emerges: What Of course, there’s no way to prove that Iran wouldn’t does the United States do while waiting for a return to have done so even if the red lines had been established. the JCPOA? How much further is it prepared to let the But as I noted in my article, there is strong precedent Iranians go in pushing the nuclear envelope? for suspecting that the regime might take such limits Of course, it should be underscored that the vast ma- quite seriously. Though heavily derided at the time, in a jority of Iran’s JCPOA violations occurred during Don- 2012 speech at the United Nations, Israeli Prime Min- ald Trump’s final 19 months in office, including the move ister Binyamin Netanyahu literally drew a red line on a cartoon bomb and left no doubt that if Iran accumulated a stockpile of 20% uranium sufficient for one nuclear With Compliments bomb, Israel would act against the Iranian program. What few people remember is that the Iranians thereupon scru- pulously ensured that their stockpile remained under the Goldman Legal threshold needed for a bomb’s worth of material. It was almost certainly an instance of successful deterrence that Level 13 deserves far greater study by US policymakers than it has 200 Queen Street received. Melbourne VIC 3000 The risks associated with red lines, as with most deterrent threats, are well known. In the first instance, if Tel. 03 9044 4444 crossed, they need to be enforced, requiring the United 22 States to undertake difficult actions, often involving the

AIR – April 2021 use of force that no president is eager to commit to in Iran’s nuclear program, the Iranians may well take an advance. Israeli red line more seriously than one coming from the If not enforced, and exposed as nothing but an empty United States alone. Far better, of course, if it were to bluff, the impact on American credibility with adversar- come from both. The Biden Administration has convened ies far and wide could be damaging. a new strategic dialogue with Israel to try to develop a COVER STORIES NAME OF SECTION For evidence, just see President Barack Obama’s common approach, especially with respect to the Ad- red line regarding the Syrian regime’s use of chemical ministration’s strategy on reviving the JCPOA. Those weapons in 2013. There’s discussions have begun none too soon and the pros and “One approach for also the dilemma that once cons of a possible red line strategy and how it could most limiting Iran’s further a red line is communicated, effectively be implemented should be a central focus. nuclear expansion it could be interpreted as Biden and his advisors seem all in on an effort to get that the United States giving an adversary licence Iran back into compliance with the JCPOA. But as they to engage in all sorts of work to do so, they readily acknowledge that, day by has yet to consider, dangerous provocations just day, Iran’s nuclear advancements are becoming more and but needs to start, is short of the threshold. more dangerous. setting some clear red All these factors and The Trump Administration, to its great discredit, lines” others would need to be never developed a serious answer to this growing threat carefully assessed by the when its plan A – forcing Iran to scale back its nuclear Biden Administration and escalation through maximum economic pressure – failed weighed against the rising risk of Iran continuing on its to deliver. The question now is whether the Biden Ad- present trajectory of pressing its program forward with- ministration can do better. out any sense of outside constraints whatsoever – short Can it develop a diplomatic strategy for constraining of actually dashing to build a nuclear weapon. Iran’s accelerating nuclear clock even as it seeks to revive Ideally, a red line strategy would be pursued with negotiations – one that doesn’t just involve outright ca- key allies in Europe and Israel. As JCPOA participants in pitulation to Iran’s demands and the surrender of all US good standing, the EU-3 wield the potentially powerful negotiating leverage and credibility? If the Administra- card of unilaterally invoking the deal’s snapback provi- tion is serious about the challenge, the issue of red lines sions, which would return the full weight of UN resolu- should urgently rise to the top of its agenda. tions, sanctions, and diplomatic isolation crashing down on the Iranian regime’s head. John Hannah served in three US administrations, including as With Europe’s bête noire, Donald Trump, now gone, national security advisor to former Vice President Dick Cheney. and with a Biden team working in tandem with London, He is an advisor to the JINSA Gemunder Centre for Defence and Paris, and Berlin to restore the JCPOA, the EU-3 might Strategy. © The National Interest (www.nationalinterest.org), well be willing to finally unsheathe their snapback sword reprinted by permission, all rights reserved. in the interest of a targeted red line strategy meant to deter the next major leaps forward in Iran’s nuclear advancement—whether that be accumulating a bomb’s worth of 20% uranium, moving to 60% enrichment, BIDEN’S IRAN POLICY destroying critical information gathered through remote NEEDS MORE STICKS IAEA monitoring systems, or the industrial production of uranium metal. It’s certainly a conversation that the Administration by David Pollock should urgently be exploring with the EU-3, and would put some much-needed teeth behind an existing ap- here is good news and bad news regarding the Biden proach that is currently in danger of devolving into little TAdministration’s policy toward Iran so far. The good more than endless hand-wringing over the danger of news is that, as promised, this team – unlike the Obama each new Iranian violation, pleading with the regime to one that most of them were previously part of – seems return to JCPOA compliance, and offering a growing list focused almost as much on Iran’s non-nuclear activities of concessions and payoffs to entice Iran back. as on its nuclear ones. The bad news, however, is their ac- Israel, of course, is the only other country along with tual policy toward those non-nuclear challenges is mostly the United States that can put forward a credible kinetic carrots, and very few sticks. The result, no doubt unwit- component, whether overt or covert, as part of a red tingly, is that the US is emboldening and empowering line strategy. Indeed, in light of Israel’s stunning record Iran on the Mideast regional level, rather than containing of success in conducting direct action operations against it. 23

AIR – April 2021 To be fair, let us first consider the sticks against Iran’s regional threats that the Biden team have employed to date. They carried out one retaliatory strike against an Iran-backed militia in Syria, after its lethal attack against

COVERNAME OF SECTION STORIES American targets across the border in Erbil, Iraq; and they have upped US anti-missile defences in Saudi Arabia in the face of continuing attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis (and probably others) across that border. The other actions taken against Iran and its local allies have been almost purely rhetorical or symbolic: sanctioning a few individu- als; overflying a few B-52s; or just threatening to take real action at some unspecified future date. Now for the carrots. The Biden Administration has To their credit, Biden’s team is focussing on Iran’s non-nuclear removed Yemen’s Houthis from the official list of desig- activities, but not with the right diplomatic tools (Credit: Wikimedia nated Foreign Terrorist Organisations, with no conditions Commons) or concessions in return. It has supported the first formal visit to Teheran by the UN Special Envoy on Yemen, to meddling, in any of these regional conflict arenas. discuss the fate of that country behind the back of its own Nevertheless, the Biden Administration is perceived, internationally-recognised Government. Similarly, the rhetoric aside, to be passively relaxing sanctions against Administration has also formally proposed to include Iran Iran. One relevant mid-level official claims that “the Presi- in an international conference on the future of Afghani- dent” will not make any “substantial” or “unilateral” moves stan, over the head of the supposedly US-allied Afghan to ease . But it doesn’t take an expert Government. to drive billions of dollars through the loopholes in those One cannot help but wonder who’s next on this list. carefully crafted words. How about inviting Iran to discuss the future of Iraq, Syria, Finally, to be fair one more time, it is admittedly easier and Lebanon, thereby legitimising its militias in all three to criticise a weak policy than to come up with a stronger countries? Why not allow the terrorist Hamas movement, one. So here is a modest proposal: instead of proffering Iran’s potential Palestinian proxy against Israel, to run in free carrots to the regime in Teheran, the US should adopt a West Bank/Gaza election scheduled for May 22? This a clear transactional stance, one that effectively combines approach has all the hallmarks of the “inclusive” or “com- the nuclear and non-nuclear files. If, for example, Iran can prehensive” regional negotiations or conflict-management convince the Houthis and other militias to stop their mis- tactics that some of Biden’s key mid-level policymakers sile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia, then and only have long advocated before, in or out of government. then will Washington offer Teheran any sanctions relief To be fair again, there may be times when such an whatsoever – regardless of whatever concessions Iran may approach could be useful. In the case of Iran specifically, be willing to offer on its ongoing violations of the 2015 there was a very brief window almost two decades ago, in nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac- 2001-03, when a US diplomatic outreach to Teheran did tion). To be sure, this short-term strategy may eventually prove helpful, in Afghanistan and to a lesser extent in Iraq. require some refinements. But it is a necessary first step. Today, however, there is no sign that Iran is prepared to This adjustment to current US policy would have contribute constructively, or even to reduce its destructive several virtues. It would offer Iran a realistic path to compromise, but not a free ride. It would reassure US al- lies – Arabs, Israelis, and even some Europeans – that the US is again a reliable partner. And it would help fulfil the With Compliments promises that the Biden team has made: to take those allies more seriously; to deal with Iran’s non-nuclear as well as its nuclear threats; and to address, as they never tire of repeating, the regional realities of today, rather than the aspirations of a previous political era.

David Pollock is the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and director of Project Fikra. This article was originally published on the Newslooks website. © Washington Institute (www.washingtoninstitute.org), reprinted by permission, 24 all rights reserved.

AIR – April 2021 Moore-Gilbert also sat down for an extended Sky TV FORMER HOSTAGES interview in mid-March. During that interview she called UNITE TO CONFRONT Evin Prison “a black hole, essentially a black site. It is out- side the scope or control of any other organisation other

IRAN than the RGs [IRGC].” NAME OF SECTION The limited amount we now know of Moore-Gilbert’s story provides fascinating insights into the cruel nature of by Naomi Levin the Iranian regime. It is a regime that its silver-tongued Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, admits wants to force West- ustralians are more aware than ever of the brutality ern nations to make prisoner swaps. Aof the Iranian regime after details emerged recently As of late March 2021, there are more than a dozen of Kylie Moore-Gilbert’s inhumane ordeal in Iranian foreigners who have been confirmed as being held in Ira- prisons. nian prisons. As this awareness grows, there is reason to hope that in- The foreigners in prison include Britons Anooshe ternational powers may be persuaded to refuse to support Ashoori and Mehran Raoof, Swede Ahmadreza Djalali, nuclear deal renegotiations unless Iran stops imprisoning German Nahid Taghavi, Austrians Kamran Ghaderi and foreigners on the flimsiest of charges. Masud Mossaheb and Americans Morad Tahbaz, Emad In 2018, Melbourne-based, Middle East studies academic Sharghi, and . Moore-Gilbert travelled to Iran French citizen Fariba to attend an academic conference. Adelkhah remains in custody At the airport, as she prepared to serving a six-year sentence that board her plane back to Austra- the French Government has “ut- lia after the conference, she was terly condemned”. One year ago, arrested by the Islamic Revolu- France secured the release of her tionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the partner, French academic Roland Iranian militia answerable only to Marchal, in a prisoner swap for the Supreme Leader. an Iranian man accused of trying Moore-Gilbert faced a kanga- to smuggle goods into Iran in roo court and was sentenced to Kylie Moore-Gilbert’s horrific account of Iran’s prisons violation of sanctions. A third helps remind the world of the other Westerners still held 10 years in prison for supposedly there (Sky News screenshot) French citizen, tourist Benjamin being a spy. Briere, was charged with espio- A complicated diplomatic swap saw her returned nage this month for taking a photo in the Iranian desert. to Australia after more than 800 days in prison – seven Meanwhile, British mother and charity worker Nazanin months of which were spent in solitary confinement in Zaghari-Ratcliffe completed her sentence in March, but Ward 2A of Evin Prison, the notorious and brutal home rather than being allowed to return to the United King- of Iranian political prisoners controlled by the IRGC. In dom to be reunited with her family, she was immediately exchange for her freedom, Thailand released three men ac- charged with additional, falsified charges and continues to cused of offences related to the attempted bombing of the await her fate in Iran. Israeli Embassy in Bangkok. With Marchal, Moore-Gilbert, and others, Iran has Since her return to Australia, Moore-Gilbert has taken been willing to negotiate their release – at a high price. to social media to share snippets of her experience in Iran, However, those negotiations have been less fruitful with as well as to draw attention to the plight of her fellow respect to dual nationals, because Teheran refuses to rec- foreign prisoners who remain unjustly incarcerated by a ognise dual citizenship. According to some reports, Iran brutal regime. completely denies dual nationals access to consular assis- “2A is not designed for prolonged habitation, its very tance. This causes terrible grief for their families, most of purpose is to break prisoners psychologically for interro- whom have extremely limited opportunities to communi- gation,” she wrote on Twitter. cate with their loved one. Speaking from her own experience, Moore-Gilbert Hostage diplomacy – the practice of states arresting wrote that prisoners are filmed 24-hours a day, even when individuals solely to be used to extract concessions from using the bathroom. No pillows, mattresses, chairs or other states – is a growing issue of international concern. tables are provided to prisoners and when they leave their In February, the Canadian Government led the launch cells, they are blindfolded. Medical treatment is dispensed of a global initiative condemning the arbitrary arrest of as a “reward” for cooperation and all COVID-19 protocols foreign nationals by regimes in order to exercise leverage are ignored. over foreign governments. The declaration was signed by 25

AIR – April 2021 59 countries, including Australia, but did not single out any recent reports reveal that Iran continues to hide key com- one country. It followed high profile detention of foreign ponents of its nuclear weapons program from UN inspec- nationals by Iran, China and, most recently, Myanmar. tors, contrary to international law. Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne has high- It is the view of Hostage Aid Worldwide, as well as

NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE lighted Australia’s opposition to foreign hostage taking and Moore-Gilbert and many other former foreign prisoners, emphasised that “Australia will hold countries to account that a pre-condition for any further nuclear negotiations for their international commitments and the obligation to should be an end to Iran’s hostage taking. comply with international laws and practices.” Rosen, one of 52 Americans detained in the US Em- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called the bassy in Teheran in 1979 for more than 14 months, is practice a “serious issue”, adding “this will not be toler- among those who support this view. ated by the international “I absolutely agree that “It is the view of Hostage Aid Worldwide, community.” hostages need to be freed Moore-Gilbert is also trying as well as Moore-Gilbert and many other before [JCPOA] negotiations, to encourage such international former foreign prisoners, that a pre- but given the fact that Iranians efforts through a new interna- condition for any further nuclear negotia- don’t accept anything in terms tional advocacy group, Hostage tions should be an end to Iran’s hostage of international law, we need Aid Worldwide. She told the to have a dual track,” Rosen global launch of the new group taking” said. that international coordination “What we need is not to along the lines of the Canadian initiative (though she did accept an agreement until there is some sort of acceptable not refer to it explicitly) is needed to stop such hostage agreement on both sides about hostages. That means Iran diplomacy: should be releasing all hostages and not taking any hostages “We call on governments to take action to disrupt the in the future.” hostage taking business model. A coordinated effort is Wang, a Chinese-born American scholar who was im- needed, both in terms of strengthening international legal prisoned in Iran for nearly four years despite being given mechanisms and in information and best practice sharing permission by Iranian authorities to undertake research in between western states.” the country, is a staunch opponent of any concessions be- Hostage Aid Worldwide’s board includes Barry Rosen, ing given to the Ayatollahs and their Islamic revolutionary and Wang Xiyue, each of whom spent a sig- regime. nificant amount of time in Iranian detention. Wang advocates strongly that the Trump Administra- At its launch, Hostage Aid Worldwide held a panel dis- tion’s “maximum pressure” policies of harsh sanctions on cussion on hostage taking and the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Iran need to be given more time to work. known as the JCPOA. This agreement, while still techni- The JCPOA is “directly responsible for Iran’s hostage cally in place, is in tatters with the United States with- taking spree,” Wang said. drawing and reimposing harsh financial sanctions in 2018, The idea behind the JCPOA was for Iran to become a and Iran continually escalating its material breaches of the law-abiding member of the international community after deal since 2019. freezing parts of its nuclear program. However, many ex- US President Joe Biden has made clear that his country perts, Wang included, argue the terms of the JCPOA were will return to the deal if Iran first returns to compliance ineffective in persuading the Iranian regime to change its with all JCPOA commitments. However, in addition to its behaviour. ongoing and increasing breaches of its JCPOA obligations, “[Former US President Barack] Obama’s misplaced goodwill toward Iran really exacerbated Iran’s bad behav- iour,” Wang said. With the compliments of “Now the Biden Administration is talking about a re- turn to the JCPOA, I think it is critical to make American hostages, and for that matter, all foreign hostages in Iran, part of the negotiations.” Schoenfeld Speaking to The Atlantic magazine, Wang said he had CONSULTING once naively believed the JCPOA would work. “If I could go back, I would slap myself,” he said. PO Box 2462 “They [the Iranian Ayatollahs] don’t want to be our Brighton North VIC 3186 friends. They don’t want to reconcile … They say it clearly, Tel: (03) 9596 7111 they want us as an enemy because that is the reason for 26 their existence.”

AIR – April 2021 THE PALESTINIAN YL: What is the COVID situation in Gaza like? ELECTIONS – KAR: “To everyone’s surprise, the situation there is fantastic. There are almost no fatalities, and there is very little spread.”

ACCORDING TO AN IDF Abu Rukun explains that this is the case because the au- NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE EXPERT thorities in Gaza enforced regulations stringently. The Rafah border crossing, which was closed for months, recently reopened, but anyone who came through was required to by Yoav Limor quarantine. KAR: “Gaza isn’t Judea and Samaria [the West Bank]. In Judea n November 2020, many months after cutting off all and Samaria, the Palestinians behave like people do in Israel – they Ities with Israel, with the prospect of Israeli sovereignty walk around, come and go, have parties. In Gaza, there is strict disci- being declared in parts of Judea and Samaria [the West pline, so they have a very low COVID rate.” Bank] taken off the table, the Palestinian Authority agreed to renew security and defence cooperation. The formal AN UPRISING IN GAZA? NO CHANCE announcement came after lengthy behind-the-scenes In recent weeks, Gaza held another round of Hamas discussions. The person behind those discus- party elections which resulted in Yahya Sinwar sions, even while ties were severed between beating Nizar Awadallah in a close race. Jerusalem and Ramallah, was the head of Co- KAR: “The old guard united against the existing ordination for Government Activities in the system and put up a fight. I’m just reminding you Territories (COGAT), Major General Kamil that Awadallah was behind the Gilad Shalit incident Abu Rukun. [the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier in 2006],” Abu Abu Rukun is slated to finish a stormy Rukun says. three-year term as head of COGAT in April. For 42 years he has been following every twist Maj. General Kamil Abu YL: Which of them would have been better for Israel? and turn of Palestinian politics, and it’s doubtful Rukun (Credit: Wikimedia KAR: “Neither. They’re a terrorist organisation, Commons) that anyone else in Israel is as familiar with the and that’s how they should be treated. It’s imprinted situation as he is. on their brains.” “I’ve been here since the attempt to transition to a civil admin- Abu Rukun thinks there is no chance that the people istration following the Camp David accords, the attempt to find an of Gaza will rise up and revolt in an Arab Spring-like alternative to the PLO through village organisations, and after that, movement: the First Intifada, the peace agreements, the , and KAR: “A year and a half ago, there was an attempt to challenge everything after that. But the last few years have been more com- them [Hamas], and Hamas really gave it to them. Hamas is very plicated and problematic than anything I remember from the past,” powerful, and people don’t dare stick their necks out. I don’t think it Abu Rukun says. will happen.” For now, the main challenge he foresees is the Palestinian Yoav Limor: Why? Authority (PA) elections. Gen. Kamil Abu Rukun: “Because matters have become more KAR: “Hamas really wants these elections, so they’re going along complicated. The separation between the Gaza Strip and Judea with things that they could have insisted on having their own way, and Samaria; the PA cutting off ties with Israel and the US, and like legal oversight, because their goal is to get into Judea and of course, COVID. All these only increased the distress and problems Samaria [the West Bank]. They’ll cooperate with anything that can that already existed there.” lead them there.” The COVID-19 pandemic piggybacked on the constant Abu Rukun says the current expectation is that Hamas crisis in the Gaza Strip. Currently, there is 45% unemploy- will win some 40% of the vote, with 60% going to Fatah. ment in Gaza, but the situation has improved by some He notes that the results of the 2006 election, which Hamas measures. Electricity is available for an average of 12 hours won, defied expectations and thinks that “there could be a a day, 16 in some areas – a dramatic improvement from surprise this time, too.” when Gaza averaged only four hours of electricity per day. Such a surprise, he explains, would not occur because of Abu Rukun was a key partner in the process that led to this popular support for Hamas, but because of the alienation the development. He put together an agreement that stipulated Palestinian public feels from the PA, and because of internal that US$8 million of the aid money provided by the Govern- rifts in Fatah and Hamas’ well-oiled party machine. ment of Qatar to Gaza each month would go directly to pay KAR: “They [Hamas] don’t have a majority among the popula- Israeli energy companies that supply diesel fuel to run Gaza’s tion, but they are very well-organised and they have a goal,” he power plant. says. 27

AIR – April 2021 He enjoys very good relations with the top PA brass. YL: And Abbas doesn’t understand that? KAR: “When Naftali Bennett was defence minister, he told me KAR: “Abbas is 86, and he doesn’t want to be remembered as they loved me. I said that was right, and that I used it for the sake the one who split the Palestinians and lost the Gaza Strip. He is of Israel’s security interests.”

BIBLIO FILE NAME OF SECTION busy with his legacy. He also wants to keep all the factions in the He tells his staff that their job is to prevent a humani- Palestinian political system, and apparently curry favour with tarian crisis among the Palestinians, “Because it would reach the new US Administration, which supports democratic processes. u s .” Other than that, he’s a little detached. It reminds me of what hap- According to Abu Rukun, the Palestinians – after an pened to [former Egyptian President Hosni] Mubarak before the initial angry response – accepted the Abraham Accords Arab Spring.” and are now expecting the normalisation deals to result in increased aid. But anyone who thinks that the Palestinians YL: But the population in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] will demonstrate flexibility and become willing to make wants to live in freedom, not under a radical Islamist regime like in political concessions, he says, is wrong. Gaza. KAR: “Unfortunately, they are losing time. Soon it won’t be KAR: “That’s true, but most people are busy with their day- possible to do anything,” he says. to-day lives. I assume that most of them don’t really believe that Hamas would take over. They’re busy with themselves.” YL: Is it solvable? Is there willingness? KAR: “Where, with us or with them?” YL: If Hamas wins the elections, what should Israel do? “We’re preparing for every scenario, including the possibility YL: You handle them. of a rise in terrorism. I remind you that even when the PA cut ties KAR: “Yes. I think that they really want to make progress.” with us last year, we continued to function and provided solutions.” Abu Rukun says that Israel is not intervening in the inter- YL: Their actions don’t indicate that. Look at how they went to the nal Palestinian matter, but he does not envision a situation in International Criminal Court at The Hague. which Israel would continue to abide by agreements made KAR: “They did that because of the impasse, and because they with the PA if it were under the leadership of Hamas. wanted to shake up the system and exert some influence. I have KAR: “If that happens, automatically there would be no … no doubt that our military is the most moral in the world, and if security coordination, so we would have to ask ourselves what the The Hague has any questions about it, they should look into what agreements were still worth.” [Syrian President Bashar] Assad did or what they’re doing in Iran, and then get back to us.” YL: Who do you expect will succeed Abbas as PA leader? KAR: “I am betting on Nasser al-Kidwa [Yasser Arafat’s YL: What does the average Israeli reading this interview not know nephew, who represented the Palestinians in the UN and was the about the Palestinians? PA’s former foreign minister].” KAR: “They are an educated people similar to us. It’s not Jordan or Egypt. We live close to one another, work with each other. ‘THE PALESTINIANS ARE LIKE US’ The Palestinians aren’t the devil. Most of them are good people, Abu Rukun, 62, is a member of Israel’s Druze minor- who just want to live. The young generation wants to be left alone. ity and lives in Ussafiya in northern Israel. He has three They want rights. They want to live like any other young people in children and three grandchildren (“one of them named Kamil, the west. They want economic security.” after me.”) April will be the third time he leaves the IDF, and he hasn’t yet decided what he will do next. YL: You’re basically saying that what the Abraham Accords didn’t do, economics will. KAR: “If I were a Palestinian, I probably wouldn’t say that be- cause they have national aspirations, but the economy is definitely the major thing. In 2030, three million people will be living in the Gaza Strip. We need to think two steps ahead. The economy leads to stable security, and our job is to give the political echelon the flexibility and the freedom to work. I think that there is an MEE CISITIONS opportunity right now to move toward bigger things with the CPITL ISINS Palestinians.” IECT INESTMENT For more information visit cfsg.com.au Yoav Limor is a veteran journalist and defence analyst. © Israel or contact Marcus H. Rose, Executive Chairman, on 03 8676 0581 or [email protected] Hayom (www.israelhayom.com), reprinted by permission, all 28 Suite 501, Level 5, 606 St Kilda Road, Melbourne 3004 rights reserved.

AIR – April 2021 and wounded over 100 more. The ex- hibit, sponsored by “students support- ing Hamas” and serving, Nelson plau- sibly asserts, as an “indirect recruiting

activity,” included “shattered furniture NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE splattered with fake blood and human body parts.” The Sbarro attack was Military Campuses among several bombings organised by Qeis Adwan, who had graduated from An-Najah just months before, with his career in Hamas’s military Not in Kansas Anymore: Academic Freedom in wing already under way. His story is Palestinian Universities one episode in An-Najah’s “history of Cary Nelson, Academic Engagement Network, 2021, 184 pp., terrorist connections.” A$43.25 A distinguished advocate for academic freedom and a leading op- ponent of the academic wing of the anti-Israel Boycott, Divestment, and by Jonathan Marks Sanctions movement, Nelson here expands on the treatment of Palestin- t’s hard to sell an assault on aca- freedom for Palestinian students and ian universities in his 2019 book, Israel Idemic freedom to academics. The scholars under conditions of Israeli Denial. Not in Kansas Anymore mean- American Association of University occupation.” When Americans hear of ders through profiles of individual Professors, hardly a hotbed of pro- a raid on, say, An-Najah National Uni- Palestinians, to sketches of the history Israel sentiment, opposes efforts versity in the West Bank, we, lacking of Palestinian higher education and to boycott Israeli universities for experience of Palestinian universities, the Palestinian student movement, to threatening the free exchange of imagine soldiers raiding an American studies of select universities, to treat- ideas. How, then, can anti-Israel campus and are horrified. But that’s ments of issues that cut across them, scholar-activists persuade uncom- a mistake, and Cary Nelson’s Not in such as politicised curricula. mitted colleagues to cancel exchange Kansas Anymore corrects it. What unites them, however, is It isn’t a mistake, Nelson sug- their contribution to Nelson’s con- gests, to be horrified. Palestin- vincing main argument: that Palestin- ian higher education has shown ian universities are “fundamentally its ability to “provide graduates different kinds of institutions” from qualified to fill many necessary their European and American coun- medical, technical, administra- terparts. More specifically, Nelson tive, commercial, and service for the first time pulls together positions.” Individually and col- evidence, scattered in news accounts, lectively, Palestinians depend on academic journals, memoirs, and An-Najah University (Credit: Wikimedia Commons) higher education, and the intru- monographs, of “a culture of campus sion of the Israeli-Palestinian and campus-related violence that programs with Israel, to skip confer- conflict into campuses has caused has been sustained for 40 years.” He ences there, and to shun teaching great harm. draws as well on numerous interviews or research activities tied to Israeli The mistake is, instead, to see he conducted, including interviews of universities? They must make Israel only the brochure-worthy work of an Palestinian academics, from 2014 to out to be an academic-freedom An-Najah, and to squeeze one’s eyes 2019. supervillain. shut against work best described as Although Palestinian universi- Because Israeli universities are repulsive. ties were first established after 1967, quite free, the boycott crew targets Consider the September 2001 under Israeli rule, some Palestinian Israel’s activities in the West Bank exhibit, mounted in An-Najah’s caf- commentators see them as hav- and Gaza. As the pro-boycott resolu- eteria, celebrating the prior month’s ing been, from the first, centres of tion adopted by the American Studies terrorist attack on Jerusalem’s Sbarro resistance to Israeli power. Palestinian Association in 2013 puts it, “there is pizzeria. That attack killed 15 Israeli politics is “ineluctably associated with no effective or substantive academic civilians, including seven children, Palestinian education.” In Palestinian 29

AIR – April 2021 politics, students, even before there The best contribution of Not in faculty union, faced death threats, and were Palestinian universities, wielded Kansas Anymore is its extensive discus- ultimately resigned his position. His disproportionate influence. Nelson sion of how faction fighting, par- offence was taking a group of students draws on, among others, the Israeli ticularly between Hamas and Fatah- to visit Auschwitz. Early the follow-

NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE scholar Ido Zelkovitz, who explains associated student groups, impinges ing year, Dajani’s car was set on fire in that leaders in the General Union of on academic freedom at Palestinian front of his house. Palestinian Students (GUPS), founded universities. Nelson begins his book Nelson gives perhaps too much in 1959, “infiltrated the West Bank” with a story that Sari Nusseibeh tells. credence to Dajani’s claim that this after the Six-Day War to “establish Nusseibeh, who would later gain an case of vehicle arson was really an underground military cells for the on- international reputation as president assassination attempt gone wrong. But going struggle against Israel.” GUPS of Al Quds University, was, in 1987, story after story – a department head inspired the student movement that teaching philosophy at Birzeit. After a is assassinated over a disputed presi- later arose in Palestinian universities. class, he was accosted by “five kaffiah dential search; a lecturer is thrown wearing attackers” who set upon him from the third floor of a building dur- elson argues that the politicisa- with “fists, clubs, a broken bottle, and ing a campus clash between “Muslim Ntion of Palestinian universities penknives.” He escaped with a broken Brotherhood and pro-PLO” students; advanced during the first Intifada, arm and minor wounds and later a student Fatah supporter is attacked which began in 1987. When they are learned that all of his attackers were and tortured, apparently by men from not performing for gullible audi- Birzeit students, including two he the Popular Front for the Liberation ences, “all Palestinian higher edu- of Palestine – suggests an “atmosphere cation stakeholders [are] proud to of physical threat and intimidation.” claim universities as the core of the This is more than a cancel culture, uprising.” At least since the Second and its menace is pervasive in a way Intifada, which began in 2000, “en- that Israel’s episodic campus intru- tering students have received com- sions are not. peting glossy brochures and indoctri- Nelson concludes that “most of the nation kits” from different political trouble in Palestinian universities has factions, the Hamas-affiliated Islamic Palestinian professor Mohammed Dajani at little to do with Israel.” That’s a great Bloc among them. Names and photo- Auschwitz deal more than the BDS movement, graphs of a faction’s martyrs, includ- with eyes only for Israeli vices, will al- ing suicide bombers, are sometimes knew well. The “crime” Nusseibeh had low. Not in Kansas Anymore is intended part of the sell. The Islamic Univer- committed, which made him a “trai- not to convince them but to help oth- sity of Gaza, not merely politicised, tor,” was holding “several meetings ers resist their unethical distortions. but “militarised,” may be “the brain with Israelis to discuss possible peace Even those who have closely trust and engine room of Hamas,” as proposals.” The go-ahead of Yasser followed the debate about Israel on the journalist Thanassis Cambanis has Arafat’s staff for these meetings didn’t campus have much to learn from this put it. But even in the West Bank, at protect Nusseibeh from a militant fac- book. It is a polemic – indeed it is pub- An-Najah and Birzeit University, there tion of Fatah, on whose behalf the stu- lished by the Academic Engagement is “no fixed line between valid politi- dents had acted. The university issued Network, which opposes efforts to cal expression and terrorist recruit- a tepid statement and did nothing. delegitimise Israel – but it is not pro- ment.” They are not only academic That’s an old but not isolated in- paganda. Nelson is right that “Debates institutions but also “recruitment cident. As one senior faculty member about academic freedom for Palestin- enterprises,” for “paramilitary groups” interviewed by Nelson puts it: “Fac- ian students and faculty are conducted and sometimes “terrorist cells.” ulty members are afraid to speak their in fundamental and corrupting igno- Nelson, a progressive who thinks minds because they will be branded rance.” One can get pretty far, there- Israel has much to answer for, doesn’t as traitors. Fatah, Hamas, and Islamic fore, just by telling the truth. believe that this security threat justi- Jihad all have students available to ha- fies every raid, arrest, restriction, or rass and intimidate faculty who are so Jonathan Marks, Professor and Chair of closing. But he has no patience for named. And sometimes their lives are Politics at Ursinus College, is the author of colleagues who pretend to be un- put in danger.” It wasn’t that long ago, Let’s Be Reasonable: A Conservative aware that “allying with a Hamas cell in 2014, that a professor at Al Quds, Case for Liberal Education. © Com- is not the same as joining a chapter Mohammed Dajani, “denounced as a mentary Magazine (www.commentary- of College Democrats or College traitor and collaborator by students magazine.com), reprinted by permission, 30 Republicans.” and others,” was thrown out of the all rights reserved.

AIR – April 2021 ambassador to the US. A decade into the conflict, Israel can point to significant successes in ESSAY its policies managing a brutal conflict

being waged on its borders. But as the ESSAYNAME OF SECTION war appears to wind down, threats for Israel still loom, even as attention Ten Years of Savagery turns to where Syria, and the region, go from here.

A REQUIEM FOR WHAT? Syrian Requiem: The Civil War and Syria’s demise and Israel’s response Its Aftermath, makes a bold claim in its very title. It rests on the idea that something fundamentally Syrian has by Lazar Berman slid into memory, never to return. “Syria has been transformed beyond recognition,” said Valensi, head of he lasting images from the decade the Syrian research program at the Tof 2011-2020 may well be those Institute for National Security Studies of gruesome, almost incomprehen- in Tel Aviv. sible violence, beamed into Western “Syria as we know it – Syria of the homes as a macabre spectacle. last 30 years that was constructed by Ten years ago, in March 2011, Hafez Assad as a strong, coherent state, protesters in Syria’s cities took to the a very important regional actor, and streets to demand government re- to some extent even an international forms and civil rights. The demonstra- A scene from Israel’s efforts to provide actor – doesn’t exist now,” concurred tions quickly turned into a full-blown medical care for Syrians along the Golan Rabinovich, who in the past was chief armed uprising against the Bashar border (Credit: Shutterstock) Israeli negotiator with Syria. al-Assad regime. The country is in ruins from a In the years that followed, scenes simply drive up one of the many vol- decade of civil war that killed a half of shocking, unforgiving brutality canic mounds on the Golan Heights million people, displaced half the pop- became almost rote. But what argu- and look east. Plumes of smoke ulation and wiped out the economy. ably most powerfully captured the drifted skyward and the clap of not- Foreign troops – Russian, Iranian, attention of the West was a series of too-distant explosions reverberated Turkish – control significant parts of videos by the radical Sunni Islamic from the Syrian side of the plateau as the country. Semi-autonomous Kurds State (IS) organisation showing grisly jihadists, regime forces, and foreign hold another 20% of Syrian territory. executions by beheading, burning and militaries battled each other along Syria has disappeared in other drowning. Israel’s north-eastern border. ways as well. Once an important Arab IS spread its expertly produced For Israel, nothing about the war cultural centre for plays, literature, clips through social media, reach- was far away, and even as the country and movies, Damascus is now de- ing around the world, enhancing its resisted getting sucked into the Syr- nuded of its leading artists, who have recruitment efforts while dominating ian quicksand, it eventually found it fled their troubled homeland for news cycles in the West. had no choice but to navigate around Europe and beyond. Many of IS’s targets in Syria were the war’s multitudinous facets and its The image of Syria that occupied journalists or aid workers from reshaping of the region. such an important place in the minds Western countries, and the scenes of “Israel didn’t grasp the conse- of Israeli leaders is also gone. Since staged but very real cruelty and gore quences of the chaotic environment Israel’s founding, Syria had been one beamed into Western homes – turn- in Syria… Israel didn’t grasp in of its most serious threats. It played a ing a faraway war into a local threat. an appropriate manner the extent central role in most of Israel’s major The images of savagery reached of the Iranian influence in Syria,” conflicts and continued to fight Israel Israelis’ screens as well, but they said Carmit Valensi, who has co-au- even after Jordan and Egypt under- had another means of witnessing the thored a new book on the war with stood they could not defeat the Jewish unfolding disaster in Syria. One could Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli state militarily. 31

AIR – April 2021 Syria also held the potential to lenge came with the Arab Spring up- Israel, though, wanted no part of solve Israel’s security challenges, at risings that swept the region, reaching it. least in the minds of decision-makers Syria in March 2011. His response to “The policy adopted and an- in Jerusalem. In the 1980s and 1990s, the initially peaceful protests was to nounced by the Netanyahu govern-

ESSAY as Israeli forces battled Palestinian and unleash security forces to snuff them ment kept Israel on the sidelines of then Hezbollah terrorists – and oc- out. Instead, protests grew, turning the Syrian conflict,” write Rabinovich casionally Syrian troops – in southern into an armed insurgency backed by and Valensi, “with three important Lebanon, Israel looked to Syria as the Turkey, the US and Gulf Arab nations. exceptions: Israel would be prepared key to achieving quiet on its northern His military fragmented. to offer discreet humanitarian help; border. In many ways, the IDF was With his army nearing collapse, it would fire back in the event of fir- playing defence with the expectation Assad opened his territory to Russia’s ing or shelling into its territory; and that the politicians would eventually and Iran’s militaries and their prox- it would interdict (without taking sign a peace deal with Syria, under ies. Cities were pulverised. He was credit or responsibility) in order to whose terms then-Syrian President accused of using chemical weapons prevent the transfer of sophisticated Hafez Assad would see to it that Hez- against his own people and killing weapon systems to Hezbollah, or the bollah disarmed. or jailing opponents en masse. Mil- fall of weapons of mass destruction Syria is gone, but what remains? lions fled to neighbouring countries, (chemical or biological) into terror- And what kind of neighbour will Europe or beyond. ist hands.” Israel face moving forward? Today, Syria does “The collapse of the As for the Assad match Seale’s descrip- regime, Israel deemed Syrian state was not AN ARENA FOR CONFLICT tion, as Iran, Turkey, it preferable to stick In his 1965 work The Struggle for Russia, Israel, the US, only a problem for with the devil they Syria, British author Patrick Seale and affiliated militias Syrians. Its effects knew – the phrase portrayed Syria as a weak state that jockey for position reverberated beyond prime minister Ariel unwillingly served as an arena for there. its borders” Sharon used in 2005 regional and global conflicts, though The collapse of the to convince George W. he may have overstated the case. Syrian state was not Bush not to push for According to Rabinovich, “Syria only a problem for Syr- regime change in Syria. under Hafez Assad was a powerful ians. Its effects reverberated beyond The Syrian border had been Israel’s regional actor. It controlled Lebanon. its borders. Millions of Syrians fled quietest since 1973, and should the It meddled in Palestinian politics, in the country, creating a refugee crisis regime fall, Israeli leaders reasoned, it Jordanian politics, it projected into in Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, would be replaced with Sunni jihadists the Arabian Peninsula. It was courted and further afield. In Europe, a bit- who would be far more aggressive. by both Moscow and Washington. It ter debate over elemental issues like As the Syrian war ground on, that was very successful in that regard.” Europe’s identity, the nation-state, view began to change. Still the Assad regime had feet of and human rights broke out as Syrian “I think in the last few years Israel clay, resting on the support of the refugees streamed in. The violence started to realise that it wasn’t that ac- minority Alawite community. threatened to spill over into Jordan curate to assume that Bashar Assad is a Like his father, Bashar Assad and Israel, and leading outlets – the better option for us,” said Rabinovich. elevated family members to insulate New York Times, BBC, the New Yorker – “First of all, from a strategic point of his power – a younger, more modern asked whether the Syrian civil war view, Israel today acknowledges the generation, but one seen by many marked the end of the Middle East fact that Bashar is the one to allow the Syrians as more rapacious in amassing created by the 1916 Sykes-Picot Iranian entrenchment in Syria. And wealth. agreement, which divided the region as long as it’s up to him, he will not The Assad family’s gravest chal- into separate states. do anything in order to remove the Iranian presence.” Though Israel had been striking With the compliments of targets in Syria throughout the con- flict – including a January 2015 strike on a convoy near Quneitra that killed Phosphagenics an Iranian general and senior Hezbol- lah commanders – in 2016 it stepped 68 Coppin Street, East Malvern up operations against Iranian assets in 32 Syria.

AIR – April 2021 The attacks were part of Israel’s few years. I think that when Obama obtain stability in Syria and provoked so-called “campaign between the decided to ignore his own red lines Israeli countermeasures. Russia toler- wars,” a strategy designed to damage and refrain from penalising Assad for ated Israel’s military campaign against Iranian efforts to supply precision the massive use of chemical weapons the construction of an Iranian mili- weapons to proxies and establish itself on civilians, that was one of the most tary infrastructure in Syria but grew ESSAY on Israel’s borders, albeit without al- important turning points of the Syrian increasingly uneasy with it as well.” lowing tensions to snowball into open crisis. That eventually paved the way Russia forced Iran to pull many of war. for Russian military intervention, and its troops and proxies back from the Israel’s attacks were “too little, even more, inflicted a deadly blow on Israeli border. too late,” lamented Valensi. Iran was the Syrian opposition.” There were also clashes between already deeply established in Syria, pro-Iranian and pro-Russian militias playing a leading role in its cul- in Syria. As reconstruction ramps up, ture, religious affairs, economy and Iran and Russia are in competition military. over economic agreements with the By the end of 2016, the war had Syrian regime. reached its turning point. Regime “Once Assad had won the main forces captured Aleppo, Syria’s largest military conflict, Russian reliance city, and it became clear that Assad, on Iranian boots on the ground and his Iranian guests, were there to definitely declined,” said Valensi. stay. Over the past decade, the world has grown “Moscow became increasingly uneasy used to shocking images coming out of Syria Assad’s survival meant that Israel (Credit: Shutterstock) with the Iranian plan and vision to had to prepare for a revived regime entrench itself in Syria, and Russia is with firm Russian and Iranian back- It took IS gains in Syria and Iraq basically seeking to stabilise the situ- ing, which sought to open a front for the US to get involved. Washing- ation. And here Iran became more against Israel on the Golan Heights. ton intervened in 2014 with airstrikes of a burden than an asset in Russia’s on Syrian soil as the head of a global perspective.” ENTRENCH WARFARE coalition against the jihadists. Israel under Prime Minister Binya- The US also initially sought to stay A year later, Moscow waded in min Netanyahu has managed to navi- out of the conflict, though Washing- on Assad’s side in a move that would gate the war by remaining in the US’s ton’s bumbling approach to Assad’s turn the tide of the war. Russia, which corner while also finding common use of chemical weapons ended up has an important naval base in Syria, ground to maintain a working rela- bolstering Assad, Valensi argues. began its direct military involvement tionship with Russia, despite several In August 2012, then US President in September 2015, when it deployed tense periods, the authors argue. Barack Obama declared, “We have air and ground assets to the country But those challenges will only been very clear to the Assad regime to prevent the regime’s collapse. The grow as a new Syria emerges, includ- that a red line for us is we start seeing move followed a visit to Moscow ing an army that is reconstituted with a whole bunch of chemical weapons by former IRGC-Quds Force com- Russian and Iranian help. moving around or being utilised. That mander Qassem Soleimani, who For now, Assad is not interested in would change my calculus.” reportedly offered Iranian boots on a direct conflict with Israel. Jerusa- The threat appeared to be work- the ground, along with allied Iraqi lem’s concern, the authors argue, ing until August 2013, when regime and Lebanese fighters, to partner with should be in maintaining military forces attacked the rebel-held suburbs Russian air power. freedom of action to prevent Ira- of Damascus with chemical weapons. “Putin was seeking to demonstrate nian entrenchment and transfer of After making the case publicly Russian capabilities, and its status as weapons. and to Congress for a military strike, a global military actor and a regional “The only leverage Israel has is Obama backed off, and instead ac- mediator,” explained Rabinovich. through the US or Russia,” said Rabi- cepted Syrian acquiescence to a US- The Russia-Iran relationship, novich. “We should definitely acknowl- Russian deal meant to have Assad hand though effective in saving Assad, be- edge our limited ability to shape the over his chemical weapons stockpile. came strained with time. political situation in Syria.” “I think it was one of the most “Moscow became increasingly un- crucial American decisions with easy with Iran’s aggressive campaign Lazar Berman is the Times of Israel’s regards to the Syrian conflict,” said to embed itself militarily in Syria in diplomatic reporter. © Times of Israel Valensi. “It had a tremendous impact 2017 and 2018,” they write. “This (www.timesofisrael.com), reprinted by on the course of events in the next campaign mitigated Russia’s effort to permission, all rights reserved. 33

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AIR – April 2021 THE MONTH IN MEDIA QUOTEDNOTEDNAME OF SECTION AND

JAB! JAB! An online report (March 1) stated Bhutto put a completely unfair spin The accusation that Israel has a that “Israel says that under interim on what Israeli Health Minister Yuli legal and moral duty to vaccinate five peace accords of the 1990s it has no Edelstein told the BBC when asked million Palestinians in the West Bank such responsibility” and that “Israel why Israel was not vaccinating all the and Gaza remained a regular theme in has immunised its own Arab popula- Palestinians. He explained that under media reports. tion, including Palestinians who live in the Oslo Accords, the Palestinian A news brief in the Australian Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem.” Authority is responsible for the health Financial Review (Feb. 27) noted Israel On March 12, ABC TV’s “The World” needs of the Palestinians it governs. won’t vaccinate Palestinians en masse was the first flagship program to broad- In that context, Edelstein said, “If who live under the Palestinian Author- cast Israel’s side, noting that “Israel says it is the responsibility of the Israeli ity’s jurisdiction “arguing they are re- that under the interim peace accord Health Minister to take care of the sponsible for their healthcare system.” from the 1990s it is not obligated to Palestinians what exactly is the re- An Age/Sydney Morning Herald vaccinate West Bank occupants.” sponsibility of the Palestinian Health report (Feb. 23) on Israel sharing vac- The report also said, “the Palestin- Minister? To take care of the dolphins cines with other countries stated that ian Authority has faced criticism for in the Mediterranean?” “Israel has argued that under interim giving jabs to VIPs such as the national He also explained that Israel does peace agreements it is not responsible football team and ministers rather supply vaccines when requested to by for vaccinating them. Israel’s vaccina- than medical workers.” the Palestinian Authority. tion campaign has included its own More problematic was host Yvonne Arab population.” Yong’s introductory remarks that An SBS online report (March 1) “Israel... has faced criticism over its PFIZER PRIZE from AAP noted that “the PA has not lack of assistance to the Palestinian A Bloomberg article in the Australian publicly asked for Israel’s help with a people.” That would be “alleged lack of Financial Review (March 12) revealed mass vaccination campaign” and that assistance.” why Israel was able to secure large “Hamas is seen as unlikely to publicly scale quantities of the Pfizer vaccine to collaborate with Israel on any vaccina- the chagrin of some other countries. tion effort.” Former Israeli diplomat IT’S A BIT RICH The story said, “[Israeli PM Bin- Alan Baker was quoted explaining that In the Guardian Australia (March yamin] Netanyahu had offered to pay under the Oslo Accords the PA “was 18), Pakistani writer Fatima Bhutto roughly $US30 ($39) a dose, about responsible ‘for health and medical denounced Israel as one of the “rich 50 per cent more than the US gov- issues.’” countries” that has secured vaccines at ernment... He also agreed to share An item from Saturday Paper the expense of poorer nations. countrywide data on the vaccine, a columnist Jonathan Pearlman (Feb. According to Bhutto, “Israel… two-dose product based on an ex- 27) claimed Israel as an occupier leading the world in vaccine rollout, is perimental platform called messen- state should vaccinate Palestinians, pointedly, purposefully, not vaccinat- ger RNA, or mRNA. It’s being used and included Gaza under this legal ing the Palestinian people it occupies. almost exclusively in Israel, in what umbrella. Israel withdrew completely When asked about it, the Israeli health amounts to a large-scale effective- from Gaza in 2005. Although Israel minister sniffed that Israel had no ness study. By February 22, Israel had maintains a blockade of the Strip, legal obligation to vaccinate Palestin- given first doses to 47 per cent of its Hamas’ leaders have admitted many ians. What then were the obligations 9 million people, making it the world times Gaza is not occupied. of the Palestinians, he asked, to look leader… Israel will provide data that after dolphins in the Mediterranean? will transform the world’s understand- It is a statement too stupid – too cruel ing of how to end the pandemic.” BETTER LATE THAN NEVER – to answer. Yes, you have an obliga- The article said Pfizer defended It took over two months to happen, tion to the people you occupy; yes, its agreement with Israel by noting it but the ABC finally reported Israel’s you have an obligation to ‘the sea’… “didn’t affect doses going elsewhere.” reason for not vaccinating Palestinians A virus, for some, is manna. Let the in Gaza or under Palestinian self-rule. Palestinians die.” 35

AIR – April 2021 PAPAL BULL curate, saying that “[Pope Francis] will foreign Jewish figure has attended.” Media coverage of Pope Francis’ visit the ancient city of Ur, birthplace For reasons unknown, this report, historic visit to Iraq highlighted the of the Prophet Abraham, who’s re- which appears to have been published precipitous decline in its Christian vered by Christians, Muslims and Jews online by regional newspapers and the

NOTED AND QUOTEDNOTED AND population due to persecution, but alike. A fitting backdrop for his mes- Canberra Times, is no longer accessible. largely failed to report on the near to- sage of healing and interfaith unity.” tal absence of Jews there due to their A Reuters report (March 6) cor- expulsion. rectly noted that “In 1947, a year CAN YOU DIG IT? ABC TV “7pm News” (Vic) (March before Israel’s birth, Iraq’s Jew- A trove of ancient Jewish texts 6) introduced its report with the state- ish community numbered around and other priceless material found in ment that “it was an important visit 150,000. Now their numbers are in a cave in the Judean Desert in undis- for the country’s shrinking Christian single figures. A local Church official puted Israeli territory clearly was not population” and new ABC Middle East said Jews were contacted and invited newsworthy enough in itself for some correspondent Tom Joyner saying, [to the papal visit] but the situation for correspondents – who felt the need to bizarrely, that Iraq is “known as the them was ‘complicated’ particularly as introduce gratuitous commentary that cradle of Christianity.” they have no structured community. had no connection to the story. On SBS TV “World News” (March However, in similar past events in pre- A particularly egregious Guardian 6), Nick Wells’ report was more ac- dominantly Muslim countries, a senior Australia report (March 18) claimed

would you think does science start-ups well? Israel comes to mind for me, and Singapore is possibly the other one.” Mike Freelander (ALP, Macarthur) – March 22 – “As someone who is Jewish, I really do understand the terrible difficulties that Senator Anne Urquhart (ALP, Tas.) – March 16 – “It is my hope are placed in front of the Uighur people. It does have echoes that Israel will understand that it has a clear obligation to send of Germany in the 1930s…We as individuals elected to public vaccines to the Palestinian Authority. Differential access is morally office in a strong and vibrant democracy have a responsibility and legally unacceptable under international law. So, today I urge to stand against human rights violations wherever they occur, Israel to donate to the Palestinians the extra doses it has ordered particularly now to the Uighur people in China.” but does not need… I urge Israel to work with Palestinian au- Tim Wilson (Lib., Goldstein) – March 22 – “Representing the thorities to ensure the vaccination of the Palestinian population third largest Jewish community in Australia, in Goldstein, I am with the same determination, resources and expertise that they’ve very familiar with the ongoing memory and legacy of the Holo- demonstrated to the world with the Israeli population.” caust. We need to remember that in remembering genocides it (ALP, Fowler) – March 16 – “I take this oppor- is part of the journey of stopping them into the future.” tunity to raise some pressing issues of human rights facing our (Lib., Berowra) – March 22 – “As a Jewish Aus- global community at the moment. First, I draw attention to the tralian I’m particularly proud…that Jewish leaders around the House of the ongoing plight of Mr Mohammed El Halabi, for- world have called out the persecution of Uighurs. [Chief Rabbi mer director of World Vision Australia, who worked in Gaza and of the Commonwealth] Rabbi Mirvis called for the urgent, inde- on the West Bank. Mr El Halabi was arrested in 2016 by Israeli pendent and unfettered investigation into what’s happening.” authorities on the allegation of funnelling $50 million of World Bridget Archer (Lib., Bass) – March 17 – “On 2 March, Vision money to the terrorist group Hamas.” members and friends of the Jewish community converged on Julian Leeser (Lib., Berowra) – Feb. 24 – “Let me remind Australia’s oldest synagogue, in Hobart, for the announcement the House of some disturbing examples that have occurred in of the establishment of a Holocaust Education and Interpreta- university campuses in recent years. In 2015 Colonel Richard tion Centre. As Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said on the day, the Kemp was shouted down by students and a professor at the centre has been established so that future generations can say, University of Sydney when he tried to speak about the ethical ‘Never again’.” dilemmas of military tactics and dealing with non-state armed Senator Jordon Steele-John (Greens, WA) – Media Release troops. He previously publicly defended the actions of the Israel criticising former defence minister Christopher Pyne for having Defense Forces, and yet for 20 minutes he was unable to speak. business relations with Israeli defence manufacturer Elbit – The protesters fought with security, who tried to have them March 17 – “Elbit is a company that markets their weaponry as removed. One of the protesters was a director of the University being ‘field tested’ by the Israeli Defence Force, a reference to of Sydney’s own Department of Peace and Conflict Studies.” the extensive use of Elbit Systems equipment in Palestine where Katie Allen (Lib., Higgins) – Standing Committee on Industry, they have profited from the ongoing occupation and oppression 36 Innovation, Science and Resources – Feb. 24 – “Which country of Palestinian people.”

AIR – April 2021 that “sections of the dig took place no evidence of me being a spy for any people” killed “for crimes related to in the occupied West Bank, a part of country…even the [Iranian] Revo- their sexual orientation between 1979 the Palestinian territories, a common lutionary Guards couldn’t figure out and 2008.” Israeli practice that has led to contro- which country I was supposedly spying Levin said the world is not power- versy. The [Israel Antiques Authority] for. I was eventually charged with be- less, citing Australia’s decision to join QUOTEDNOTED AND coordinated with the defence minis- ing an Israeli spy because that was the “58 other countries in signing on to a try, which runs the occupation. Israel easier thing. You know any mention of Canadian-led declaration condemning captured the West Bank from Jorda- Israel in Iran. You know Israel is the the arbitrary arrest of foreign nationals nian forces in the 1967 war. Interna- little Satan…for the Revolutionary by regimes to exercise leverage over a tional law bans the removal of cultural Guards in particular. That was just the foreign government.” property from occupied territory. The easiest country they could try to link original Dead Sea scrolls, a collection me to but even a few months before of Jewish texts, were also found in my release, so mid-2020, they were SIMON SAYS desert caves in the West Bank. How- floating a theory that I was an MI6 On the tenth anniversary of the ever, they were discovered by nomadic agent… this was well after I’d been Syrian civil war, Guardian Australia Bedouin shepherds in the 1940s and convicted and tried of being an Israeli columnist Simon Tisdall marked out 1950s.” agent.” Israel (March 8) as one of the regional None of this was relevant to the She said Iran also accused her of states that “prioritises selfish, short- story. being an Australian spy and “for a term interests” vis-à-vis that country. Moreover, the main collection of while I was also accused of being a According to Tisdall, “Israel wor- Dead Sea scrolls was discovered in Bahraini spy because of my research on ries about the build-up of Iranian 1946 and 1947, during the British Bahrain. So, they really had no idea.” Revolutionary Guard and pro-Tehran Mandate in Palestine, before there was The Revolutionary Guards also armed forces in Syria and Lebanon. It any “West Bank” – the name used by tried to convince her to lure her has launched hundreds of air strikes Jordan to refer to the territory it il- Israeli-born husband to Iran, which on Iran-linked targets there, and has legally captured in the 1948 war. “would be a PR coup”, she said. urged the US to do likewise in reply to The issue of the archaeological rocket and drone attacks in Iraq, the material’s provenance was also poorly Gulf and Yemen. For Israel and Iran, handled in the Australian’s AFP sourced CRUEL CONVICTIONS Syria has become a forward battle report (March 18), which included a In the Australian (March 11), AI- zone in a multi-front struggle. Its peo- sentence that “Israel has been accused JAC’s Naomi Levin expanded on Iran’s ple’s well-being is not their concern. of politicising the discovery of ancient cruel policy of convicting visiting Its chronic weakness suits both.” Jewish artefacts to justify territorial Westerners on bogus spying charges as In fact, the “Iran-linked targets” claims in the West Bank.” one part of the regime’s wider abuse Israel has hit include missile factories Except, in this instance, the finds of human rights. and convoys of game-changing missiles were made inside Israel. Iran is “pretty blatant about the headed for Hezbollah in Lebanon to An AP report on Nine News’ practice”, Levin said, citing American target Israel, as well as military instal- website (March 17) also stated that hostage Wang Xiyue, who said “his lations on the Jewish state’s northern “sections of the dig took place in the Iranian interrogator openly told him border. As for the accusation Israel is occupied West Bank.” that they knew he had committed no not “concerned” with Syrians’ well-be- Reports of the discoveries were crime and he was being held solely to ing, during the civil war, Israel treated run in Nine Newspapers, ABC online, exchange for US-held Iranian prison- thousands of wounded Syrians and ABC TV “The World” and SBS TV “The ers and the release of frozen Iranian quietly provided aid to the millions of World” that same day and were free assets.” Syrians who fled to Jordan. from politics. Levin pointed out that “Iran ex- ecutes more people than any other country in the world, excepting per- PROVOCATION I SPY? haps China.” PREVARICATION An exclusive Sky News interview Those targeted to be murdered In the Australian Financial Review (March 9) with Australian academic are wide and varied, including “politi- (March 1), Sydney University aca- Kylie Moore-Gilbert detailed the cal dissidents condemned by clerical demic James Curran repeated ques- absurd lengths to which Iran went to courts that offer defendants no real tionable claims that the Morrison Gov- falsely convict her on spying charges. rights”, and an estimated figure of ernment’s 2018 decision to consider Dr Moore-Gilbert said, “there’s between “4,000 and 6,000 LGBTI moving Australia’s embassy in Israel 37

AIR – April 2021 from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem “needlessly” tinian side but… impedes them and achieve recognition through the back provoked Jakarta. undermines the [two-state] outcome door rather than through negotiations Curran called the Government’s which the ALP seems to want.” with Israel over a two-state solution.” proposal “ham-fisted” and criticised it The real problem, he said, is that On the Australian’s website (March

NOTED AND QUOTEDNOTED AND for “follow[ing] the Trump administra- Palestinian leaders have rejected “three 19), commentator Gerard Hender- tion’s provocative decision” to move serious offers for a state alongside son’s Media Watchdog column criti- the US embassy. Israel” and “unilateral recognition of cised ABC TV’s “Insiders” for becoming Curran said, “Morrison ultimately a supposed state of Palestine without “insular…in recent times”, citing, decided against the move, but the any obligations on the Palestinian side amongst other things, its lack of cover- damage in Indonesia had been done. just rewards that continuing intransi- age of “Labor’s policy on Israel and the The largest Muslim majority country gence and refusal to negotiate.” Palestinian Authority.” in the world, which has long ex- He also noted that the ALP con- pressed its support for the Palestinian ference in 2018 left it up to a future cause, saw Australia blindly following Labor Government to decide when SHIFTING SANDS America and siding with Israel.” to implement any “recommendation, ABC Radio National “Late Night He suggested that “the move including that one.” Live” (Feb. 24) looked at the Trump threatened to derail the signing of a Rubenstein also said the Abra- Administration’s decision to recognise free trade agreement between the two ham Accords – the normalisation Morocco’s annexation of Western countries.” agreements signed by Bahrain, UAE, Sahara as a reward for normalising re- But as “Noted and Quoted” readers Morocco and Sudan recognising Israel lations with Israel in December 2020. will know, the overwhelming nega- – “had opened up new avenues for Academic Dr Randi Irwin claimed tive response was solely in Australia by peace making” in the Middle East since that “recognition of Israel…[has] seen Australian commentators who insisted the ALP national conference passed its protests within Morocco that are the idea was insulting to Indonesia. resolution on unilateral recognition in against the Moroccan Government’s The purported furious media and po- 2018. recognition of Israel’s occupation litical reaction in Indonesia was actu- in Palestine and now I think there’s ally very muted and limited, while the some domestic tension there that’s free trade agreement was of greater DON’T VISIT “CUCKOO happening.” benefit to Indonesia than Australia, and LAND” In fact, Moroccan opposition has went ahead without a hitch. Other analyses of the issue in- been restricted to leftists and Islamists. cluded an Australian editorial (March Most Moroccans know that the two 8) which agreed with former federal countries have enjoyed semi-official PLATFORM SHOOED Labor MP Michael Danby’s comments relations dating back to the 1950s and A report in the Australian (March that “those seeking to put the Palestin- accept normalisation as a pragmatic 5) that pro-Palestinian ALP members ian issue in the party platform ahead decision and an acceptable price to pay were angry because the party’s latest of China’s persecution of Tibetans, for recognition of Western Sahara as policy document had omitted a 2018 Uighurs, Hongkongers and Taiwan are Moroccan territory. resolution calling on a future Labor ‘in cuckoo land’.” Moreover, Morocco stressed its government to recognise a Palestinian The editorial also listed how the support for the goal of creating a state led to a round of media reports non-existent State of Palestine fails to Palestinian state, so Irwin was incor- speculating on whether the party was satisfy the criteria of what constitutes rect in implying that the Moroccan abandoning support for Israel. statehood stipulated by the 1933 Mon- Government has recognis[ed] “Israel’s But on Sky News “Kenny Report” tevideo Convention for the Rights and occupation in Palestine.” (March 5), AIJAC’s Colin Rubenstein Duties of States. Kamal Fadel, from the Polisario said if the platform only called for The paper cited approvingly a point Front in Australia – an Algerian and immediate recognition of a Palestin- made by – Liberal MP Iranian supported revolutionary group ian state it would be problematic and Australia’s former ambassador to which seeks independence for West- but the full ALP position “supports a Israel – that including a pro-Palestine ern Sahara – understandably criticised two-state outcome” reached through statement in the ALP platform would Trump’s decision, made “in his last “agree[ment] by the parties.” be “the wrong call because it pre- days as a lame duck President,” as He said the problem with the empts a negotiated two-state solution, “unprecedented and dangerous”, argu- concept of unilateral recognition of a which has always been the policy of ing it would give a “green light to any Palestinian state is that it doesn’t “help Australia” and would co-opt the party authoritarian regime or any despot to 38 encourage negotiations on the Pales- into the “brazen Palestinian strategy to go and grab territory by force.”

AIR – April 2021 Allon Lee MEDIA MICROSCOPE JOE’S TWIN DILEMMAS are to be curbed. Hopes that Riyadh will follow the UAE Significant media coverage was devoted to the Biden and Bahrain in normalising ties with Israel are a factor, Administration’s twin Middle Eastern foreign policy too. Saudi Arabia remains a key energy producer. And the dilemmas – how to reset relations with Iran to end the crown prince, 35, is likely to lead the country for decades nuclear standoff and how best to sanction Saudi Crown to come.” Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) for allegedly order- Earlier, on Feb. 25, the Guardian Australia attacked ing the brutal murder of Jamal “ told Australian foreign former US President Donald Khashoggi in 2018. Trump for creating a “cred- Veteran US official Elliott editor Greg Sheridan (Feb. 27) that the ibility gap” by leaving the Abrams told Australian foreign Biden Administration understands that JCPOA. But the paper sensibly editor Greg Sheridan (Feb. 27) the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, called the concluded that future JCPOA that the Biden Administration Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiations need to be on a “more for more” basis to “re- understands that the 2015 Iran (JCPOA), must be ‘longer and stronger’” nuclear deal, called the Joint solve outstanding issues regard- Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), must be “longer ing missiles and regional relations… The Trump years have and stronger”, include extended “sunset clauses”, and cover shown that a narrow deal like the JCPOA cannot be stable “issues like missiles and Iran’s regional misconduct.” in the current environment.” Abrams cautioned that a strategy of Iran coming “back The publication predicted that concluding a new agree- into compliance” and the US then “lift[ing] all economic ment will be difficult because President Biden has a “huge sanctions” will “destroy…all American leverage,” and make agenda and limited political capital,” while Iran’s parlia- it unlikely that “Iran will negotiate and accept additional ment is hostile to compromise and upcoming elections in limits.” June will “likely… see hardliners more hostile to the US” Abrams said “the only logical conclusion” to draw from elected. Iran’s current enrichment levels of 20% is that it consti- The Guardian Australia failed to note that the political tutes part of “a nuclear weapons program,” because “we makeup of Iran’s parliament is largely under the control of have seen how countries behave which want nuclear en- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has veto power ergy but aren’t after nuclear weapons. It’s not like this…. over which candidates are allowed to run for office. You don’t need to enrich uranium at all for nuclear energy; In the Australian Financial Review (March 5), Harvard you can import and export as much of it as you need.” academic Meghan O’Sullivan dismissed accusations that oil The Australian (March 1) warned the Biden Administra- motivated the Biden Administration’s decision to not sanc- tion not to “overlook the importance of Saudi Arabia as a tion MBS personally, pointing out that “the US imported Western ally, especially in confronting Iran’s nuclear ambi- exactly zero barrels of Saudi oil in the last week of 2020.” tions”, even while seeking to hold the Saudi Crown Prince Like others, O’Sullivan opined that “The US can only responsible for the Khashoggi murder. fully succeed in its efforts to counter Iran, combat terror- The paper said, “nothing excuses what was done to Mr ism, build on the wave of normalisations with Israel by Khashoggi” but the Administration must “expand rela- Arab states, and address the horrific humanitarian situa- tionships Mr Trump developed with pro-Western allies, tion in Yemen if it has the co-operation of the Saudis. The including Saudi Arabia.” US learnt the hard way in Iraq after the 2003 invasion that Undermining those ties “as a sop to the far left of the shaping dynamics in the Middle East in the face of Saudi Democrats” would “play into Iran’s hands and create prob- indifference or, worse, opposition, is incredibly hard.” lems for Israel” and get in the way of “developing closer On ABC TV “The World” (March 2), University of Bir- ties between the Arab world and Israel,” the paper warned. mingham Professor Scott Lucas predicted President Biden An Observer editorial in the Guardian Australia (March won’t return to Obama era policies, saying “the Middle 1) said Britain’s failure to penalise MBS, was “shabby… East[’s]… changed in four years. With Iran…the Biden realpolitik”. Yet, in discussing that “realpolitik,” the edito- Administration will want to talk about…Iran’s missiles. rial echoed the Australian, saying that “Saudi Arabia is an They want…a firmer agreement. When it comes to Saudi important western ally. Its cooperation is needed if Iran’s Arabia, it’s going to be ‘you don’t have privileged access to destabilising regional activities and nuclear programme us unless you play by the rules’.” 39

AIR – April 2021 NAME OF SECTION Jeremy Jones

WHEN ANTI-RACISM ISN’T The difficult economic conditions faced by many, the I had been really looking forward to the travel and the failures of all too many governments to reassure their con- adventure. It was an honour to be selected to represent a stituents that they knew how to protect them, and appeals major international organisation at an inter-governmental to crude scapegoating and racist nationalisms, together are conference. Unfortunately, my trip did not go ahead. producing toxic trends. While this is the experience of many people during the In addition, online media has provided tools for con- past 12 months, the trip I am referring to was scheduled to spiracy theorists, political manipulators and extremist take place 20 years ago, in 2001. recruiters to exploit the crisis to both spread messages and I had been asked to represent the World Jewish Con- incite changes in behaviour. gress at a forum as part of the process leading up to the The good news is that, in Australia, there are people United Nations World Conference Against willing to devote time, energy and resources Racism, scheduled for later that year in Dur- to combatting racism in many ways. ban, South Africa. At the recommendation of the Australian The Asian regional meeting was due to Security Intelligence Organisation, the first take place in Iran, after a change of venue. far-right wing, racist organisation has been First, some national governments, includ- listed as a terrorist organisation by Australia, ing Australia, were disinvited, due to a quirk Claiming to be anti-racist with further recommendations likely if any in the UN system. does not make it so (Credit: additional groups can be shown to reach a Then some legitimately credentialled Shutterstock) particular threshold of behaviour. representatives of international non-government organisa- Various online platforms are showing more responsibil- tions, including me, were warned that it was not safe for ity with respect to confronting their role in the distribu- us to make that trip. To this day I have not had the oppor- tion of racist material, governments are increasing their tunity to visit that country – known for its fascinating his- anti-racist messaging and, just as importantly, there is torical and cultural sites, interesting and welcoming people action at the local level. and a government contemptuous of human rights. On a recent tour through regional That regional meeting in Iran was the source of a num- and Victoria, I encountered not just concern at the spread ber of the resolutions which undermined any claim the UN and adoption of conspiracy theories and racist scapegoat- World Conference Against Racism may have had to being ing, but a genuine desire to not allow the problem to grow “anti-racist”. and, instead, to drive racism back into the sewers from It is to Australia’s credit that our government was which it emerged. the one which most clearly opposed the UN’s NGO and Media, civic authorities and religious leaders are talk- Governmental Conferences’ politicisation and distortion ing openly about racism, discussing ways of addressing the of “anti-racism” – as this worthy term was twisted into a problem and promoting counter-visions for Australia. weapon for bullying and exacerbating, rather than amelio- I met religious leaders trying to make sure inter- rating, political tensions. religious understanding was not a casualty of a change in Future columns will deal in more depth with the priorities forced on them by the pandemic; journalists ask- infamous Durban World Conference Against Racism, and ing questions about what type of country we want to be in its dismal failure in attempting to address a very real issue the future; as well as interfaith councils, both reinvigorated which affects so much of our planet’s population. and highly motivated, once again able to operate after Fast-forwarding to today, there is concern, even fear, months in forced, socially distanced, hibernation. that one result of the COVID-19 The genuine anti-racism of ordinary Australians stands in pandemic will be a resurgence stark contrast to the UN’s disingenuous pronouncements. of the political extremism which It is an unfortunate reality that their efforts are so vital, includes racism in its armoury. now more than ever.

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