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AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL REVIEW VOLUME 46 No. 4 APRIL 2021 AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL & JEWISH AFFAIRS COUNCIL POST-BALLOT BLUES After another indecisive election, Israel prepares for difficult coalition negotiations THIN RED LINES MILITARY A DECADE OF HOSTAGE DRAMA CAMPUSES SAVAGERY How the Biden Administration can confront After Kylie Moore-Gil- Myth and fact about Israel and the bert’s saga, battling to Iranian nuclear blackmail ................. PAGE 21 Palestinian universi- Syrian civil war, ten save those still trapped ties ...............PAGE 29 years on .......PAGE 31 in Iran ............ PAGE 25 NAME OF SECTION WITH COMPLIMENTS WITH COMPLIMENTS L1 26 BEATTY AVENUE ARMADALE VIC 3143 TEL: (03) 9661 8250 FAX: (03) 9661 8257 2 AIR – April 2021 AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL VOLUME 46 No. 4 REVIEW APRIL 2021 EDITOR’S NOTE NAME OF SECTION his AIR edition focusses on the complex and ambiguous outcome of Israel’s ON THE COVER Tnational election on March 23, and where Israeli politics might go from here Israeli voters walking by political after four indecisive elections in two years. posters and slogans outside an elec- Amotz Asa-El explains why the results of this election look a lot like those of tion polling station in Holon, Israel, the previous three, and explains the difficult coalition negotiations now likely to 23 March 2021. (Credit: Roman occupy Israel for some months. An AIR factsheet looks at the potential compo- Yanushevsky/Shutterstock) nents of any such coalition, while Ariel Ben Solomon reports on the changing role of Israeli Arab parties. Plus, Herb Keinon explores some quirky ironies of the campaign, while Nathan Jeffay witnesses what it is like to vote in a COVID-19 ward. Also featured this month is former senior US official John Hannah offering the Biden Administration a playbook for dealing with Iran’s escalating nuclear blackmail, and Naomi Levin’s look at new efforts to confront Iran’s policy of holding foreign citi- zens like Australian academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert as hostages. Finally, don’t miss a look at the upcoming Palestinian election from the IDF’s top commander in the territories, Lazar Ber- man on what Syria’s now decade-long civil war has meant for Israel, and Jonathan Marks reviewing an effort to correct misinfor- mation about Palestinian universities. Please give us your feedback on any or all of it at [email protected]. Tzvi Fleischer CONTENTS FEATURE STORIES REGULAR COLUMNS ELECTORAL DÉJÀ FROM THE EDITORIAL CHAIRMAN VU COLIN RUBENSTEIN ....................................................................... PAGE 4 ................................................. PAGE 5 BY AMOTZ ASA-EL WORD FOR WORD As Israel’s twenty-fourth legislature SCRIBBLINGS prepares to assemble, it will again be TZVI FLEISCHER ............................................................................ PAGE 6 split down the middle. .....................................................PAGE 12 DECONSTRUCTION ZONE HOW TO VOTE IN A COVID WARD EYAL ZISSER .................................................................................. PAGE 7 BY NATHAN JEFFAY ..................................................................... PAGE 14 ASIA WATCH MICHAEL SHANNON ...................................................................... PAGE 7 COMPONENTS OF A COALITION ...... PAGE 15 EUROPA EUROPA FOUR CAMPAIGN BACKFIRES DOUGLAS DAVIS ............................................................................ PAGE 8 BY HERB KEINON ......................................................................... PAGE 17 BEHIND THE NEWS .............................................. PAGE 10 A NEW ROLE FOR THE ARAB PARTIES BY ARIEL BEN SOLOMON ............................................................. PAGE 19 STRANGER THAN FICTION ........................ PAGE 11 THE THIN RED LINE NOTED AND QUOTED ..................................... PAGE 35 Biden versus Iranian nuclear blackmail BY JOHN HANNAH ........................................................................ PAGE 21 IN PARLIAMENT ...................................................... PAGE 36 BIDEN’S IRAN POLICY NEEDS MORE STICKS MEDIA MICROSCOPE BY DAVID POLLOCK ...................................................................... PAGE 23 ALLON LEE ................................................................................... PAGE 39 FORMER HOSTAGES UNITED ON IRAN THE LAST WORD BY NAOMI LEVIN .......................................................................... PAGE 25 JEREMY JONES ........................................................................... PAGE 40 IDF EXPERT ON PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS BY YOAV LIMOR ........................................................................... PAGE 27 HOW TO USE OUR INTERACTIVE EDITION BIBLIO FILE: MILITARY CAMPUSES • Tap/click to return to the Contents page BY JONATHAN MARKS ................................................................. PAGE 29 • All listed articles link to their page. ESSAY: TEN YEARS OF SAVAGERY • Best viewed in your desktop browser or the Books (iOS) or equivalent e-book reader app in portrait mode. Syria’s demise and Israel’s response 3 BY LAZAR BERMAN ..................................................................... PAGE 31 AIR – April 2021 Australia/Israel Review Published by the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) Editorial Chairman Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM EDITORIAL Editor-in-Chief Dr TZVI FLEISCHER Senior Contributing Editor JEREMY JONES AM THE VACCINATION NATION Staff Writers ALLON LEE, JAMIE HYAMS, AHRON SHAPIRO, SHARYN MITTELMAN, NAOMI VOTES LEVIN, OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD, ARIEL ZOHAR Publishing Manager MICHAEL SHANNON s widely predicted, Israel’s fourth election in two years appears to have failed to Correspondents ISRAEL: AMOTZ ASA-EL Aprovide a clear and decisive winner. EUROPE: DOUGLAS DAVIS After all the votes had been counted, neither incumbent PM Binyamin Ne- NEW ZEALAND: MIRIAM BELL National Editorial Board tanyahu nor his rivals appeared to have anything like an easy path to a governing KEITH BEVILLE, RABBI RALPH GENENDE OAM, GARY HERZ, MIRIAM coalition. LASKY, STEVE LIEBLICH, RABBI JOHN Outgoing President Reuven Rivlin has until April 7 to select a prime ministerial can- LEVI AC, Hon. HOWARD NATHAN AM, IAN WALLER SC didate to try to form a coalition, and has hinted he is in no rush. The person given Rivlin’s AIJAC mandate then has 28 days to form a government and can potentially receive an extension. National Chairman If he or she fails, the mandate can then be given to someone else. In other words, in a MARK LEIBLER AC best-case scenario, Israel is at the beginning of a process likely to last more than a month, NSW Chairman PAUL RUBENSTEIN but which may last considerably longer than that. Executive Director Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM Most Israelis will understandably find this outcome very frustrating after the two-year Director of International & political logjam that has created a situation whereby their representatives in Jerusalem Community Affairs JEREMY JONES AM seem to have spent more time campaigning than governing. Policy and Research Coordinator Yet perhaps the upcoming weeks will allow passions to cool, and encourage political Dr TZVI FLEISCHER Associate Director of Public Affairs parties to tone down their rhetoric, iron out differences and find a way to avoid a fifth & Operations JOEL BURNIE election that is surely the last thing the country needs. Senior Policy Analysts Perhaps it will also allow Israeli political and opinion leaders to reflect on the self- AHRON SHAPIRO, JAMIE HYAMS, ALLON LEE, NAOMI LEVIN, SHARYN evident need for intelligent electoral reform to prevent the country from continuing the MITTELMAN chronic political instability of recent times. A governing coalition that could unite for the Policy Analysts OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD express purpose of developing and passing such reforms, thus guaranteeing the current National Media & Public Affairs Officer impasse could never recur, would likely win the lasting gratitude of much of the weary ARIEL ZOHAR Israeli electorate. Multimedia Designer AREK DYBEL Meanwhile, there are numerous other important takeaways from this election Events Coordinator HELEN BRUSTMAN OAM campaign. Administration Firstly, the disappointing turnout among Israel’s Arab voters should not overshadow MELBOURNE: ROSEMARY SANDLER, RENA LANGBERG some genuinely encouraging signals coming from this sector. Most Zionist parties in- SYDNEY: LOUISE DE MESQUITA cluded Arab Israelis high on their electoral list, while Arab party politicians openly dis- Israel Liaison PETER ADLER cussed the prospect of working with an Israeli government, rather than reflexively oppos- Founding Chairmen ISADOR MAGID AM (OBM) ing them, as in the past. As Tzvi Fleischer notes in this month’s Scribblings column, Arab ROBERT ZABLUD (OBM) voters today appear to be overwhelmingly in favour of Arab political parties either joining HEAD OFFICE the next Israeli government or supporting one from the outside “in order to achieve ben- Level 1, 22 Albert Road, South Melbourne, VIC 3205, Australia efits for the Arab community.” Telephone: (03) 9681 6660 Fax: (03) 9681 6650 The result is the small Arab Ra’am party, which does have a worryingly Islamist out- Email: [email protected] look, looks to be in a position to potentially play kingmaker, post-election. SYDNEY OFFICE 140 William Street Already guaranteed equality under the law since Israel’s founding, Israel’s minorities East Sydney, NSW 2011, Australia Telephone: (02) 9360 5415 are increasingly asking their leaders to