Fiscal Policy Lessons for Alberta's New Government from Other NDP
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Fiscal Policy Lessons for Alberta’s New Government from other NDP Governments JUNE 2015 Ben Eisen, Charles Lammam and Jason Clemens fraserinstitute.org Contents Executive summary / i Introduction / 1 The challenge facing Rachel Notley’s NDP government in Alberta / 3 Political brands are poor predictors of fiscal prudence / 5 Path 1: Higher spending and taxes under the Ontario NDP in the early 1990s / 7 Path 2: Spending reductions and fiscal discipline under the Saskatchewan NDP in the early 1990s / 12 Directly comparing spending trajectories in Ontario and Saskatchewan in the early 1990s / 17 7. Conclusions / 19 References / 20 About the authors / 23 Acknowledgments / 24 Publishing information / 25 Supporting the Fraser Institute / 26 Purpose, funding, and independence / 26 About the Fraser Institute / 27 Editorial Advisory Board / 28 fraserinstitute.org fraserinstitute.org Executive summary Rachel Notley’s New Democratic government in Alberta takes office facing significant fiscal and economic challenges. The fiscal policy choices the new government makes will play an important role in shaping the future fiscal health and economic prospects of Alberta. Too often, people believe it is possible to accurately predict a new government’s approach to policy simply by observing its political label. In fact, political branding is a poor predictor of how successful it will be in managing government finances. This paper demonstrates this fact of Canadian fiscal policy by look- ing at the fiscal track records of different governments that have repre- sented each of Canada’s major national political parties. The paper pays special attention to Rachel Notley’s own New Democratic Party. It exam- ines the fiscal policy approaches taken by Bob Rae’s NDP government in Ontario and Roy Romanow’s NDP in Saskatchewan during the early 1990s to show that there are multiple models of New Democratic fiscal govern- ance from which Premier Notley’s government can draw lessons. The Ontario NDP of the early 1990s, led by Bob Rae, represents one of these models. Like Notley’s new NDP government, Rae’s took power in Ontario during an economic turndown and faced significant fiscal challen- ges. The Rae government’s approach was to immediately and significantly increase provincial government spending, enacting a stimulus budget that increased nominal program spending by 11.9 percent, on top of an 11.6 percent increase that had occurred in the preceding year under the Liberal government of David Peterson. In subsequent years, under pressure from credit markets, the Rae government held nominal spending flat, keeping spending near the stimulus-era peak. Bob Rae’s NDP government tried to pay for some of this new spend- ing through an array of tax increases, but sluggish economic performance (to which the tax increases on personal income and corporate capital likely contributed) undermined this objective. The combined effect of spending increases and poor economic performance was the emergence of record- setting budget deficits, which exceeded $9 billion in each fiscal year from fraserinstitute.org ii / Fiscal Policy Lessons for Alberta’s New Government from other NDP Governments 1992 to 1995. The predictable result of these large budget deficits was a rapid expansion in the province’s net debt, which more than doubled from 14 percent of GDP in the 1990-1991 fiscal year to 29 percent of GDP in the 1995-1996 fiscal year. The NDP government in Saskatchewan under Premier Roy Roma- now, who took office in November of 1991, offered a stark contrast to the Ontario experience. Romanow delivered one of the more fiscally prudent and successful provincial governments in recent Canadian history, re- straining spending, keeping deficits in check, and laying the foundation for the relative prosperity the province has enjoyed since. Romanow’s govern- ment cut nominal program spending by approximately three percent dur- ing each of its first three years in office, resulting in a 10 percent spending reduction over a three-year period between the 1991 and 1994 fiscal years. The Romanow government’s approach delivered impressive fiscal outcomes. The government erased an $845 million budget deficit in just three years, returning to a budget surplus in fiscal year 1994-1995. The return to budget surpluses allowed the government to significantly reduce the province’s net debt from 28.3 percent of GDP in 1992 to 23.5 percent of GDP in the 2000 fiscal year. This reduction in net debt, combined with falling interest rates, brought significant relief to Saskatchewan taxpay- ers in the form of reduced debt service payments, which peaked at 25.4 percent of own-source revenue in fiscal year 1993-1994 before falling to 11.3 percent of own-source revenue in fiscal year 2000-2001. The fiscal prudence shown by the Romanow government established the founda- tion for successive NDP governments to reduce and reform both personal and business income taxes, which were key in establishing the competitive business environment the province currently enjoys. As Premier Notley and her cabinet work to develop their fiscal policy strategy, they would be well advised to follow the model of New Democratic governance provided by their Saskatchewan neighbours dur- ing the early 1990s. If, instead, they emulate the Ontario NDP model from the same period, the result will likely be increased spending, higher taxes, growing deficits, and reduced prosperity for Albertans in the years ahead. fraserinstitute.org Introduction Rachel Notley’s New Democratic government in Alberta takes office facing significant fiscal and economic challenges. The fiscal policy choices it makes in response to these challenges will help play an important role in shaping the future fiscal health and economic prospects of Alberta. Too often, people believe it is possible to accurately predict a new government’s approach to fiscal policy simply by observing its political label. In fact, political branding is a poor predictor of what type of ap- proach a new government will take to fiscal policy and how successful it will be in managing government finances. Each of Canada’s three ma- jor national parties have produced governments, either at the federal or provincial levels, that have pursued prudent and successful fiscal policy strategies. Each has also produced governments that have failed to manage government finances successfully, with painful economic consequences for their jurisdictions. This paper demonstrates this aspect of Canadian politics and policy development by looking at the fiscal track records of different govern- ments that have represented each of Canada’s major national political par- ties, demonstrating the wide range of approaches to fiscal policy that each is capable of delivering. Special attention is paid to Rachel Notley’s own New Democratic Party. By examining the fiscal policy approaches taken by Bob Rae’s NDP government in Ontario and Roy Romanow’s in Sas- katchewan during the early 1990s, we show that there are multiple models of New Democratic fiscal governance from which Premier Notley’s new government can draw lessons. All three of Canada’s major national parties have shown themselves capable of producing governments that deliver sound policies that deliver desirable fiscal and economic outcomes. Premier Notley’s new team need look no further than the history of their own party’s provincial govern- ments in different jurisdictions for examples of both highly successful and unsuccessful approaches to financial management. By studying the successes of Saskatchewan’s NDP government during the early 1990s, the new government in Alberta can identify policy strategies that will help lay fraserinstitute.org 2 / Fiscal Policy Lessons for Alberta’s New Government from other NDP Governments the foundation for a fiscally sustainable and prosperous Alberta. Sound policies based on solid evidence and real-world experiences can lead to prudent policymaking, regardless of political stripe. fraserinstitute.org The challenge facing Rachel Notley’s NDP government in Alberta Rachel Notley’s recently elected NDP government comes into office facing significant fiscal challenges. Low energy prices and rapid growth in gov- ernment spending have left the province’s finances in a bleak condition. Alberta now confronts a multi-billion dollar budget deficit and a likely end to the province’s “debt-free” status. Alberta’s operating deficit for the current fiscal year (2015-2016) is projected to be $5.0 billion (Alberta, 2015a: 107). As figure 1 illustrates, Alberta’s per capita deficit this year is projected to be the second highest in Canada, behind only Newfoundland & Labrador. Alberta’s per-capita deficit is projected to be approximately twice as large those in Ontario and New Brunswick, two provinces that are widely recognized to be facing se- Figure 1: 2015-2016 projected per capita surplus or deficit by province $500.00 $97 $62 $4 $0.00 -$104 -$500.00 -$333 -$628 -$631 -$1,000.00 -$1,240 -$1,500.00 -$2,000.00 -$2,071 -$2,500.00 SK BC qC NS MB ON NB AB NL Source: Royal Bank of Canada (2014), Fiscal Reference Tables; Statistics Canada (2014); and calculations by authors. fraserinstitute.org 4 / Fiscal Policy Lessons for Alberta’s New Government from other NDP Governments vere public finance challenges (Murrell and Fantauzzo, 2014; and Murphy et al., 2014). Government spending in Alberta has increased rapidly in recent years, and at a significantly faster pace than would be required by the combined effects of population growth and inflation. One recent analysis showed that if growth in program spending had been held to the rate of population growth plus inflation since the 2004-2005 fiscal year, program spending in the most recent fiscal year (2013-2014) would have been $8 billion lower than was in fact the case (Milke and Palacios, 2015). As a re- sult of this rapid and sustained spending growth, Alberta’s per-capita pro- gram spending is now among the highest in the country, reaching $10,919 in the 2013-2014 fiscal year, roughly $1,300 above the national average (Alberta, 2015b).