HOW GOT A ONE- ISSUE CAMPAIGN

Robin V. Sears

Contributing Writer Robin Sears looks back on the Ontario election and wonders how, with all the challenges the province faces, it was transformed into a one-issue campaign on the public funding of private faith-based schools. And in a province where confessional schools have historically been a tinder-box issue, how and why did Conservative leader John allow himself to be trapped on this question, making the campaign about one of his promises rather than his opponent's record? Dalton McGuinty's Liberals successfully “conjured up the prospect of immigrants with strange religions and foreign tongues...” writes Sears, while the Conservatives were never warned by their own research “how damaging a promise this could become,” derailing their entire campaign.

Dans son compte rendu des élections ontariennes, notre collaborateur Robin Sears se demande comment la campagne en est venue à se focaliser sur le financement des écoles confessionnelles privées dans une province qui a tant d’autres défis à relever. Historiquement, la question a toujours été explosive, d’où cette seconde interrogation : comment le chef conservateur a-t- il pu se laisser piéger en axant toute sa campagne sur la promesse de financer ces écoles plutôt que sur le bilan de son rival ? Si les libéraux de Dalton McGuinty ont réussi à s’en tirer sur cette question délicate, les conservateurs n’ont pas su voir à quel point une promesse du genre pouvait leur nuire. Et faire dérailler toute leur campagne.

hen they called this election, few cared and wrenching economic transition and, according to ana- fewer came. What is going on? Not since 1923 lysts, on the cusp of a wrenching recession. That they W have so few Ontarians bothered to vote. For were in the midst of choosing a new government was the first time nearly a majority of citizens said “none of almost invisible until the closing days. Lost pet stories the above” — 47.2 percent voted with their feet. In fact, it often trumped election coverage in small-town dailies. was 22 percent of Ontarians that gave Dalton McGuinty The Liberals were reduced to buying a front-page his two-thirds seat majority. Not that it should have been endorsement from one of the throwaway com- a surprise. This was the most soporific election in almost muter papers to get attention. as long a time. One would have to reach back to post-war Why voters were so sanguine was, on the surface, a puz- Ontario to find a more somnolent campaign, to the days zle. Consider: Ontario when wandered the fall fairs spinning homi- ● is rapidly running out of electricity, a crisis for which no lies about strong families and good roads to win three party had a credible answer; majorities in a row. ● has endured two years of the smoggiest, most heavily Perhaps it was the foolishness of a fixed-term election polluted days in every major city; date, a carbuncle on the body of a parliamentary democracy. ● is facing the most punishing round of public sector It had been anticipated so long that even the parties failed to strikes in a decade within months — as teachers, nurses do the usual rhetorical ramp-up and activist mobilization of and public servants line up to test a famously strike-shy a pre-election period. It was a lovely long hot summer. The government; electorate was not thrilled with the government, unimpressed ● has dropped to last in child poverty and post-secondary by its leader, but underwhelmed by the available options. education funding stats; A visiting foreigner could be excused for failing to ● faces a middle-class property tax revolt postponed only see signs that the citizenry were in the midst of a by the promise of unlikely government relief;

POLICY OPTIONS 17 NOVEMBER 2007 Robin V. Sears

● has a manufacturing economy in fter the overheated rhetoric and NDP leader serious decline, with the auto sec- A ferocious partisan assaults of the attacked the current , the for- tor suffering its first trade imbal- Peterson/Rae/Harris years, Ontario’s mer premier and long-ago premiers ance in a generation; political leaders appeared determined Peterson and his former boss, . ● watches its economic engine and to bore the electorate into submission. At a time when the province is los- political capital, Toronto, facing a There were occasional eruptions of ing its manufacturing base at the half-billion-dollar deficit next partisan attack, usually tied to evoca- fastest rate since the Great Depression, spring; and on and on. tions of the good old days of blood a stranger listening to Liberal leader The political elite’s slap in the face sport politics. Dalton McGuinty would think he had by Ontario voters should not have In British Columbia visitors are landed in Lotusland. Several times a been surprising. This was an insulting often bewildered by the ritual damna- day, the Premier would recite statistics campaign free of vision or new ideas. tion of the politicians long gone, some- demonstrating record spending on schools, record numbers of The combination of Church of United Empire Loyalists, hips replaced and record Ulster Orangemen and various Low Church Protestants nearly numbers of cops, nurses, scuppered Confederation over the issue. They yielded teachers and rodent inspec- tors hired. It all had an grudgingly to a typically Canadian subtle and complex “Another Record Cuban constitutional deal at the Conference of 1866. The issue Sugar Cane Harvest!” quali- faded throughout the 20th century until the government ty about it. decided to extend Catholic school funding to the end of high Their advertising guru admitted that the boredom school. ’s decision in 1984 to extend the terms of that was intentional, bragging to original deal contributed to the defeat of his successor the confidants that their strate- following year, and left a time bomb for his successors. gy was to “sleepwalk the voters to another majority.” Each party merely recycled policy times even dead. Dave Barrett, premier planks that had been around for years, three decades ago, and W.A.C. (Wacky) t worked like a treat, and then they in some cases decades. Bennett, dead nearly as long, are still I got an assist from God. The National regularly blamed for current ills by Post cartoonist framed the outcome ow novelty in politics is not all, angry socialists and sulky conservatives. perfectly the morning after: Dalton N and some issues never go away, At their most lustful, good grey McGuinty, hands raised in rapture, but this is a new century with a gener- Ontario politicians are no competition shouting, “Thank you, Jesus!” ation of voters raised on a new set of for the political fireworks of ’s The story of religion in schools is stimuli and issues. Voters raised on the left coast, but they are acquiring the as close as the province comes to pas- wide frontiers of personal choice, same “back-to-the-future” weakness. sion in politics. While Ontario has immediate wiki proofs, precisely tai- The sins of the Harris government never risked the civil conflict to which lored products and service delivered were featured in creepy Fox-News-style the “Schools Question” nearly drove instantly by the Net are too savvy to be “reality TV” ads from the Liberal war , anti-popery is close to the seduced by a politician offering better room, complete with “arrest photos” surface in Ontario to this day. What transit — 15 years from now. They are of the former premier. (Harris was was more surprising and depressing too suspicious of institutional claims of elected 12 years ago, in another centu- was how close to the surface lay an eas- loyalty by church and employer, let ry.) The Tory campaign used a rolling ily provoked anti-Muslim itch. alone political parties or governments, text ad with a similarly hideous photo The combination of Church of to respond to blather such as “Get of the Premier. Perhaps the ad gurus’ England United Empire Loyalists, Orange” — New Democrats’ peculiar theory is that unflattering photos are Ulster Orangemen and various Low appeal. Progressive Conservative leader more powerful political ammunition Church Protestants nearly scuppered John Tory, despite the Liberal war room than dumb policy? Confederation over the issue. They brats’ attempt to tag him as “Richie Not to be outdone, newspaper pun- yielded grudgingly to a typically Rich” is the leader with the closest per- dits regularly blamed Bill Davis for John Canadian subtle and complex consti- sonal engagement with youth causes Tory’s faith-based schools nightmare. tutional deal at the London and exposure to the bitterness of urban (Davis was elected when the current pre- Conference of 1866. The issue faded poverty. He had an opportunity to turn mier was an unremarkable student at throughout the 20th century until the that connection into a powerful politi- ’s St. Patrick Catholic High government decided to extend cal message and didn’t. School, and retired 22 years ago in 1985.) Catholic school funding to the end of

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Robin V. Sears

high school. Bill Davis’s decision in strongly that he could not back down Ontario, and suggesting that Ontario 1984 to extend the terms of that origi- on his commitment, as it was central would suffer the same fate as “London nal deal contributed to the defeat of to his vision of inclusiveness, and and ” if the policy were adopted. In his successor the following year, and because he had given his word to the a clear appeal to Islamophobia they suc- left a time bomb for his successors. community leaders involved. cessfully ground the Conservative num- One of the side deals between Bob His advisers’ opinion research failed bers down by nearly ten points in less Rae and that permitted to signal how damaging a promise it than three weeks. At Toronto dinner par- Peterson’s to be could become. They did not simulate ties one heard “progressive” downtown installed was the implementation of how ably the McGuinty war room Liberals muttering quietly that Tory’s Catholic school funding. Behind the would be able to torque the issue into a policy would fund “some crazy imam’s scenes in every caucus, members were Canadian version of Nixon’s racist madrassa.”

By this spring, Ontario Conservatives with a respect for the hile the episode was province’s history, such as Toronto professor Michael Bliss, W admittedly devastat- were warning Tory of the campaign land mine he had laid for ing to the Tory campaign, and an impressive example himself. Tory felt strongly that he could not back down on his of the power of vicious commitment, as it was central to his vision of inclusiveness, campaign tactics, it was and because he had given his word to the community leaders troubling to watch a “pro- involved. gressive” Canadian politi- cian indulging in ethnic heavily divided about the commitment. Southern strategy. Asked about the fail- politics rarely seen in Canada. John Angry words were exchanged between ures after the election, campaign direc- Tory had never appropriately battle- long-time friends among New Democrat, tor and pollster John Laschinger refused tested his commitment, as he was Liberal and Conservative MPPs. A harsh to comment. Similar phone interviews forced into uncomfortable generalities counter-attack lead by radio shock jocks by pollster Greg Lyle also failed to cau- when challenged about who would and a strange combination of the “Sons tion his client, the Canadian Jewish qualify and how. of Orange,” leftist public school advo- Congress, what a disaster the issue The salt in the wound for cates and teachers’ unionists badly rat- would be if the Liberals decided to Conservatives was a regular complaint tled the political establishment. The torque it into a ballot question. by the Liberal leader that John Tory was political leadership prevailed, but And torque it they did — hammer- “being negative” in regularly dubbing through threats and coercion more than ing Tory every day from the beginning him a “promise-breaker,” a demonstra- persuasion in the end. The issue went to to the end of the campaign. Using code bly unassailable charge to which bed for another decade. language about race and open threats McGuinty had many times confessed. The Conservatives unwisely re- about the risks to Ontario’s security, The Liberal campaign may have laid opened it first in the Harris years with the highly effective Liberal dirty tricks a hostage to fortune for the government. a promise to extend funding to private team got the province enraged. The The campaign was especially enraging to and faith-based schools using the tax same gang that humiliated Stockwell those Ontario Liberals from the commu- system. This “education choice” Day in 2000 with dinosaur dolls con- nities being so casually slurred by the option, championed by then treasurer jured the prospect of immigrants with party. Two Jewish cabinet ministers , opened all the same strange religions and foreign tongues expressed their reservations to the wounds over again. His successor as “ripping the heart out” of the public Premier’s Office directly, nervous about premier, , dropped the idea school system, bleeding it of desperate- reaction in a community that had been but the seeds of a new battle had been ly needed funds. safely Liberal provincially for generations. sown. In a subsequent leadership con- The tactic did hit Liberal support in test three years ago John Tory prom- or months in advance of the cam- Ontario’s influential Jewish community. ised to find a way of funding F paign they fed reporters with anony- It probably helped Tory marginally in faith-based schools. The commitment mous quotes about “unhappy some Muslim, Sikh and evangelical got little attention at the time. Conservatives” and supplied YouTube Christian communities, but even they By this spring, Ontario with nasty videos and their canvassers were divided by the issue. The Conservatives with a respect for the with slippery doorstep lines. As the dam- Conservatives elected one prominent province’s history, such as Toronto age to Tory began to show up in public radio personality, , in a professor Michael Bliss, were warning polls, they raised the pressure with egre- largely Jewish community, north of John Tory of the campaign land mine gious performances by Dalton McGuinty Toronto. It was small recompense for the he had laid for himself. Tory felt fretting about creating a “segregationist” damage done everywhere else.

20 OPTIONS POLITIQUES NOVEMBRE 2007 How Ontario got a one-issue campaign

The Gazette, Montreal Ontario Conservative Leader John Tory ran on the slogan “Leadership Matters.” But when the heat was on over his promise to publicly fund faith-based schools, he said he would submit the idea to a free vote of the legislature at Queen’s Park. He'll never get the opportunity. Tory lost the election, and his own seat, as the Liberals successfully made the campaign about him rather than them.

The irony is that Tory’s policy was, when offered financial support, most speeches and advertising — the Liberal in part, a poorly articulated effort to schools would accept inspections, an campaign was remorseless and effec- begin to control the unregulated approved curriculum and licensed tive. They successfully painted Tory as growth in religious schools that teachers. It seems likely that a subse- a naive champion of “private religious already live entirely outside any super- quent step would have been to make interests” over the public good. vision. Few voters knew that in such supervision mandatory. Ontario setting up “The Ahmadinejad All that got heard was that he three leaders were curious rep- Holocaust Deniers High” was a snap, Conservatives were going to take T resentatives of their political and that some very curious schools money from “our public schools” and tribes. Until recently, Dalton had long existed in the province. give it to brown-skinned Muslims to McGuinty looked and sounded like the Indeed, members of the Iranian teach hate. sort of politically hopeless, small-town Canadian community claim that the Like the “Swift Boat” tactics that United Church minister that New hated imams in their former home demolished the John Kerry campaign Democrats were famous for recruiting. were already secretly funding schools — twist a lie into a credible campaign Having been rigorously retooled by in the province. Tory’s hope was that attack and then hammer it endlessly in media trainers of the “say less, but say

POLICY OPTIONS 21 NOVEMBER 2007 Robin V. Sears

it over and over” school, he emerged successful social democratic parties in John Tory is the most attractive in this campaign sounding more like the rest of the Western world, would by leader that the party has had since Bill the Manchurian candidate than a sea- itself catapult the party forward a cou- Davis: none of the corrosive edge of a soned premier. His endless repetition ple of decades. A serious outreach to , lots of the gravitas that of Hallmark slogans such as “Moving the best Canadian and international grounded the most successful Forward Together” and “We Are thinkers on social inclusion, sustain- Conservative leaders in the golden Ontario” were apparently effective. able growth and a progressive innova- years. But he has a whiff of “yesterday’s Howard Hampton is the acciden- tion agenda could make the party into man” as a result, despite having been tal leader of the hapless New a serious contender for government around for only three years as leader. A Democrats. Chosen by the party in a again. Part of the problem remains that warm glad-handing style risks being fit of anti-Rae sentiment more than a for many Ontario New Democrats, the seen as a patrician son of privilege decade ago, he has taken the party to experience of power was so painful soothing the masses. Despite having lows not seen since the 1950s. As in his they would really rather not return. raised more money for more worthy two previous stillborn campaigns, his The challenge for the causes, done more to heal community was an old-fashioned and defensive Conservatives is similar, if not quite as divisions and been more proactive for message. As one of his advisers years on the race and poverty said somewhat despairingly, The slightly right-of-centre social front than either McGuinty or “We are reduced to a ‘saviour’ policy space occupied so successfully Hampton, to the casual observ- campaign: save medicare, save er he looks like many other the North, save our schools. by 50 years of Ontario Red is middle-aged white politicians When you are always trying to now filled by the Liberals, who are in a pinstriped suit. The name is hold on to what you’ve got, big on family, and responsibility, and not an asset in many circles of you’re always going to be public safety — if only in their spin. liberal Ontario to boot. pushed onto the defensive.” Though he tried to make The economic space in the centre is he slightly right-of-centre the most of a modest increase in certainly open for competition given T social policy space occupied popular vote, in his post-cam- that the Liberals have so signally so successfully by 50 years of paign analysis, the reality is that failed at staunching the bleeding in Ontario Red Tories is now filled Hampton has led the party to by the Liberals, who are big on an increasingly narrow base of the agricultural, resource and family, and responsibility, and aging support. They came out manufacturing sectors, or at public safety — if only in their with the same number of MPPs pointing out the path to a successful spin. The economic space in the as they went into the campaign post-industrial economy. Success for centre is certainly open for com- with. The Greens took votes petition given that the Liberals from all three parties, but their a creative new innovation and have so signally failed at “young and cool” protest pos- economic stimulus message staunching the bleeding in the ture is most damaging to the presupposes that voters care. This agricultural, resource and manu- New Democrats’ former com- election would seem to indicate that facturing sectors, or at pointing petitiveness for that image. out the path to a successful post- A massive NDP refit and they do not, yet. industrial economy. Success for a renewal exercise is now well past creative new innovation and urgent, starting with a leadership grim. Whether John Tory decides to economic stimulus message presupposes change. But drafting even a “rock star” remain or not, their appeal and dis- that voters care. This election would new leader without revamping the tinctiveness as a political choice is also seem to indicate that they do not, yet. party’s tired brand and ‘60s platform not entirely clear. A return to Harrisite The “national” card may offer some will not stop the rot. Even a party loyal- policy is not an option for a party seri- hope for a politician with credentials ist such as , a senior minis- ous about power — that hard-edged such as Tory’s. He is a veteran of Bill ter in the Rae government and lifelong response to the mess bequeathed by Davis’s careful positioning of the New Democrat, appealed to the party to the Peterson/Rae era will not sell province as the benevolent economic seize the post-election review period to today. Even the social conservative engine and political flywheel of the make big changes, or else. activist core of the Harper coalition nation. It’s almost hard to recall the recognizes that those days are now days when Ontario could be counted on he path forward is not hard to gone — at least until the next crisis to “square the circle” between western T find. A night on Google, clipping makes normally centrist and demands at first ministers’ pages from the Web sites of most of the willing to adopt such a painful agenda. tables, the time when its security as a

22 OPTIONS POLITIQUES NOVEMBRE 2007 How Ontario got a one-issue campaign perennial number one allowed it to sup- the debate and elsewhere but failed to ty of young voters and fend off a chal- port apparently generous national social give it the serious attention it would lenge to the party base. and economic transfers. have needed to take off. Each party has good reasons not An opposition campaign that con- to make the kinds of changes neces- he province has fallen far in the trasted Ontario’s sad performance sary to be seen as serious. For New T national league tables since those against other provinces’ could be the Democrats, it’s union intransigence days. It’s not credible for Queen’s Park to death of a thousand cuts for and northern resource communities, match Alberta’s or even British McGuinty’s credibility: “Did you know for Conservatives, it’s small business Columbia’s largesse in infrastructure that your grandma would wait half as and small government activists, and spending today. But Ontario has fallen long for her new hip in PEI as she had for Liberals it’s fear of the reaction of to the level of the poorest provinces in to in Picton? Aren’t you embarrassed all of the above. Making Ontario the several key indices, including the crucial our students score worse on their math number one environmental innovator productivity and innovation stimulator, tests than Canadian kids in Alberta, could be a political vision that touches post- secondary education funding. and ? several of the province’s hot buttons Roads, hospitals and schools are still in Did you know that in Ontario we recy- simultaneously. However, there is a Third World states of repair in many cle less of our garbage than every one shadow on the horizon for all of the smaller communities and poorer neigh- of the Atlantic provinces?” Etc. parties, and especially for the govern- bourhoods, despite a small uptick in The success of the Green Party ing Liberals. Liberal spending over four years. across the province, taking votes from The province is now long overdue Some friends of the Conservative all three parties and nearly electing its for a serious recession. Party pleaded with Tory advisers to first politician anywhere in the coun- Not since David Peterson was adopt a “We’ll make Ontario number try, suggests another option for any of spooked into calling an early election one. Again” appeal, touching their his- the three major parties. in the summer of 1990 have the eco- tory of government success and Demonstrating real leadership in this nomic portents looked so gloomy for Ontario’s famous arrogance simultane- arena would probably motivate a the province. The province has bub- ously. Tory played with the message in cadre of new voters, secure the loyal- bled along on several economic fronts

POLICY OPTIONS 23 NOVEMBER 2007 Robin V. Sears

for more than a decade: auto sales, running out of steam soon, but even a Hard times require tough gov- construction and commodity industry small dip in US demand could be ernment decisions. There is probably servicing. Each appears to be threat- severe for Canadians, as we are now little appetite among Ontario voters ened for the first time in many years. much higher-cost producers. to run up the provincial deficit by This year Ontario slipped into As the Rae government discov- the tens of billions required to try to deficit in auto parts and vehicle export ered, a serious recession in Ontario, ease the pain of a downturn for its revenue. It is blessed to have a strong especially one driven by a post- most vulnerable victims, older laid- and growing Asian auto manufacturing presidential-election decline in the US, off workers and their families. There sector, but that cannot offset the secular can hurtle downhill with sickening is even less willingness among glob- slide of the Big Three American manu- speed. The provincial government’s al creditors to be so helpful except at facturers. In addition, the huge advan- levers to brake the decline are weaker punishing interest rates. The brick wall that Ontario Not since David Peterson was spooked into calling an early Treasurer election in the summer of 1990 have the economic portents could be skidding toward looked so gloomy for the province. The province has bubbled before the end of winter is the need to find billions along on several economic fronts for more than a decade: of dollars in discretionary auto sales, construction and commodity industry servicing. expenditure cuts, fast. Each appears to be threatened for the first time in many years. There is little in their record to give one hope tage that weak Canadian dollars and today than they were 17 years ago, and that this is a challenge that the horrific US health costs represented for they didn’t work then. McGuinty government is up to our car plants have both disappeared at The McGuinty government had a meeting. This is the team, after all, the same time. GM and Chrysler have mostly bump-free first term, coasting whose first choice when faced with each passed their retirees’ health costs to first on the decimation of the NDP as the perennial demand of the health their unions, and the Canadian dollar is opposition and the Tories’ leadership system for more money was to break now a 4 to 5 percent additional cost — battles, then on the cash thrown off by a promise not to raise taxes. The from a 25 percent advantage two years the booming Ontario economy. The next four years were marked by ago — for every vehicle assembled here. bumpy ride that is sure to be the sec- avoidance, denial and delay as deci- ond term starts with labour negotia- sion-making styles. ousing starts have remained tions with hundreds of thousands of H strong in Ontario so far, but public employees later this year. hurchill once unfairly character- exports of lumber and other construc- C ized Britain’s formidable post-war tion inputs to the US have been savaged ollowing the time-honoured prime minister, Clement Attlee, as a by their credit crisis and our dollar. F approach of Liberal and Conservative “modest man with a great deal to be Economists are already wringing their governments in the province — spend modest about.” But Attlee confounded hands about the impact of Ontario enough immediately on the loudest prob- critics, laid the foundation of the British homebuyers losing their enthusiasm to lems to reduce their volume, promise a lot welfare state, completed the withdrawal go deeper into debt for a new home. more a lot later — McGuinty was able to from Empire and begin to rebuild the Government infrastructure spending stall a day of reckoning on transit, on war-ravaged British economy. could offset some of the predicted infrastructure and on cities. He was a skinny, balding, physical- decline in housing and the still weak To govern is to choose, however, ly unbecoming political leader, with an commercial sector, but only the federal especially when the revenues flatline unfortunate grin. His oratory was government is flush and it is unlikely to or fall. As the Rae government discov- painful to endure, with a glad-handing favour spending on shovels in Ontario. ered, government revenues fall much style that was forced and embarrassing The province’s health is, ironically, faster in a downturn than expendi- to observe. He went on to make the likely to be propped up for some time tures can be cut. In a province with a hardest decisions in a government in by commodity prices. Although the $556.3 billion GDP in 2006 and a crisis, after a career as a political vacilla- coal, oil, uranium, diamonds, trees and provincial expenditure of $90 billion, tor. Maybe McGuinty has a role model. water — Canada’s clichéd “rocks and an accumulated surplus of $2.3 billion logs” economy — are primarily based is 2.6 percent of expenditure, equiva- Contributing writer Robin V. Sears, for- elsewhere, the financing and industry lent to two cases of beer a month to mer national campaign director of the servicing benefits flow disproportion- the average Ontario wage earner. It NDP during the Broadbent years, is a ately to Ontario. Few economists see may appear like a lot of money but it’s principal of . in Toronto. the global boom in commodity prices a trivial bulwark against a recession. [email protected]

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