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Machine Intelligence and Robotics Report of the NASA Study Group

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Machine Intelligence and Robotics Report of the NASA Study Group 730-51 Machine Intelligence and Robotics Report of the NASA Study Group EXECUTIVE SUMMARY September 1979 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California MACHINE INTELLIGENCE AND ROBOTICS Members of the NASA Study Group September 1979 Dr. Carl Sagan (Chairman) Dr. Elliott C. Levinthal David Duncan Professor of Adjunct Professor of Genetics Astronomy and Space Sciences Stanford University Medical School Cornell University Dr. Jack Minker, Department Chairman Dr. Raj Reddy (Vice Chairman) and Professor of Computer Science Professor of Computer Science University of Maryland Carnegie-Mellon University Dr. Marvin Minsky Dr. Ewald Heer (Executive Secretary) Donner Professor of Science Program Manager for Autonomous Systems Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Space Mechanics Jet Propulsion Laboratory Dr. Donald A. Norman Professor of Psychology Dr. James S. Albus University of California at San Diego Project Manager for Sensor and Computer Control Technology Dr. Charles J. Rieger National Bureau of Standards Associate Professor of Computer Science University of Maryland Dr. Robert M. Balzer, Project Leader and Associate Professor of Computer Science Dr. Thomas B. Sheridan Professor of Engineering University of Southern California and Applied Psychology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Dr. Thomas O. Binford, Research Associate Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Dr. William M. Whitney Department of Computer Science Manager for Information Systems Research Stanford University Jet Propulsion Laboratory Dr. Ralph C. Gonzalez Dr. Patrick H. Winston, Director Professor of Electrical Engineering Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and Computer Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology University of Tennessee Dr. Stephen Yerazunis Dr. Peter Hart, Director Associate Dean of Engineering Artificial Intelligence Center Rennselaer Polytechnic Institute Stanford Research Institute Ex-Offlcio Members: Dr. John Hill, Staff Member Artificial Intelligence Center Dr. William B. Gevarter Stanford Research Institute Program Manager for Guidance and Control NASA Headquarters B. Gentry Lee Manager of Mission Operations Stanley R. Sadin, Program Manager and Engineering, Galileo Project, Space Systems Studies and Planning Jet Propulsion Laboratory NASA Headquarters iii Preface The NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) has established the goal of providing a technology base so that NASA can accomplish future missions with a several-orders-of-magnitude increase in mission effectiveness at reduced cost. To realize this goal, a highly focused program must be established advancing technologies that promise substantial increases in capability and/or substantial cost savings. The Study Group on Machine Intelligence and Robotics was established to assist NASA technology program planners to determine the potential in these areas. Thus, the Study Group had the following objectives: (1) To identify opportunities for the application of machine intelligence and robotics in NASA missions and systems. (2) To estimate the benefits of successful adoption of machine intelligence and robotics techniques and to prepare forecasts of their growth potential. (3) To redommend program options for research, advanced devel- opment and implementation of machine intelligence and robot technology for use in program planning, (4) To brbaden communication among NASA Centers and uni- versities and other research organizations currently engaged in machine intelligence and robotics research. iv Acknowledgement The Study Group on Machine Intelligence and Robotics is grateful to a very large number of NASA personnel and other scientists and engineers for essential help in this study. The Study Gjroup especially appreciates the contributions by the following indi- viduals at the various Workshop meetings. Albee, Ardejn L. Manson, Simon V. Alsberg, Harold B. McCandless, Samuel W. Avizienis, Algirdas A. McGhee, Robert B. Blanchard, David McReynolds, Stephen R.. Burke, James D. Mead, Carver Milgram, David Calio, Anthony J. Mills, Harlan Carey, Ted Mitchell, O. R. Casler, V. Chapman, Robert D. Newell, Allen Claussen, B. A. Norris, Henry W. Clarke, Victor C. Nudd, Graham Cohen, Danhy O'Leary, Brian Cook, Henry Paine, Garrett Crum, Earle M. Perlis, Alan Cunningham, Robert Popma, Dan C. Cutts, James Porter, James des Jardins, Richard Powell, Robert V. Dobrotin, Boris M. Quann, John J. Dudley, Hugh J. Ratner, Justin Ebersole, Michael Rasool, Ichtiaque S. Elachi, Charles Rennels, David A. Fero, Lester V. Rose, Press Ferrell, William R. Rosenfeld, Azriel French, James R. Friedman, Leonard Schaeffer, David Fu, King S. Selfridge, Oliver Fuller, Samuel Shaw, Mary Smith, George W. Gilstad, Douglas A. Smith, William L. Goetz, Alexander F. H. Sos, John V. Greenblatt, Richard Steurer, W. H. Groth, Ed Ward J. Sutherland, Ivan Guttag, John V. Swain, Philip H. Haberman, Nico Swanlund, George Hall, E. L. Teitetman, Warren Hecht, Herbert Tenenbaum, Jay M. Henry, Richard C. Textor, George P. Herman, Daniel H. Horn, Berthold von Puttkamer, J. H. Hunt, B. R, von Tiesenhausen, George F. Ivie, Charles V. Weinstein, Meir Williams, Donald Knight, Thomas Williams, R- J. Kraft, C.C Loftus, Joseph P. Voung, A. Thomas Louviere, Allen J. Zegalia, John B. Section I Introduction The NASA Study Group on Machine Intelligence and sider especially significant because of JSC's central role in the Robotics including many of the leading researchers and almost development of manned spaceflight. all of the leading research groups in the fields of artificial intelligence, computer science, and autonomous systems in This report includes the conclusions and recommendations the United States, met to study the infliience of these subjects of the Study Group. A complete report with supporting docu- on the full range of NASA activities and; to make recommenda mentation will be published separately. The conclusions tions on how these subjects might in the future assist NASA in represent a group consensus, although occasionally there were its mission. The Study Group, chaired by Carl Sagan, was dissenting opinions on individual conclusions or recommenda organized by Ewald Heer, JPL, at the request of Stanley Sadin tions. While the report is critical of past NASA efforts in this of NASA Headquarters. It included NASA personnel, scientists field — and most often of the lack of such efforts — the cri- who have worked on previous NASA missions, and experts on ticisms are intended only as constructive. The problem is computer science who had little or no prior contact with government-wide, as the Federal Data Processing Reorgani NASA. The Group devoted about 2500 man-hours to this zation Project1 has stressed, and NASA has probably been study, meeting as a full working group or as subcommittees one of the least recalcitrant Federal agencies in accom- between June 1977 and December 1978. modating to this new technology. A number of NASA Centers and: facilities were visited The Study Group believes that the effective utilization of during the study. In all cases, vigorous support was offered for existing opportunities in computer science, machine intelli accelerated development and use of machine intelligence in gence, and robotics, and their applications to NASA-specific NASA systems, with particularly firm backing offered by the problems will enhance significantly the cost-effectiveness and Director of the Johnson Spaceflight Center, which we con- total information return from future NASA activities. Section II NASA Needs NASA is, to a significant degree, an agency devoted to the advances have been made in Earth resources and meteoro acquisition, processing, and analysis of information — about logical satellites, and across the full range of NASA activities. the Earth, the solar system, the stars,and the universe. The At the present time, the amount of data made available by principal goal of NASA's booster and space vehicle commit NASA missions is larger than scientists can comfortably sift ment is to acquire such scientific information for the benefit through. This is true, for example, of Landsat and other Earth of the human species. As the years have passed and NASA has resources technology satellite missions. A typical information mustered an impressive array of successful missions, the com acquisition rate in the 1980s is about 1012 bits per day for all plexity of each mission has increased as the instrumentation NASA systems. In two years, this is roughly the total non and scientific objectives have become more sophisticated; and pictorial information content of the Library of Congress. The the amount of data returned has also increased dramatically. The Mariner 4 mission to Mars in 1965 was considered a strik ing success when it returned a few million bits of in formation. 1 U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Data Processing The Viking mission to Mars, launched a decade later, acquired Reorganization Study, Available from National Technical Information almost ten thousand times more information. Comparable Service, Washington, D.C. problem is clearly getting much worse. We have reached a intelligence technology is fully capable of dealing with more severe limitation in the traditional way of acquiring and reliably and less expensively than if human beings were in the analyzing data. loop. This, in turn, frees human experts for more difficult judgmental tasks. In addition, existing and projected advances in robot technology
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