The Islamist Advantage: The Religious Infrastructure of Electoral Victory Sharan Grewal∗ March 29, 2021 Abstract Why do Islamists regularly win elections in the Middle East? One common yet rarely tested hypothesis is that Islamists can rely on a vast, country-wide network of religious institutions, particularly mosques, to facilitate voter outreach and mobiliza- tion. Secular parties, meanwhile, have no comparable, preexisting infrastructure. This paper attempts to test this \infrastructure advantage" in two ways. First, it leverages a dataset of Tunisia's 6000 mosques to show that sub-nationally, the number of mosques per capita strongly correlates with Islamist vote share in the 2011, 2014, and 2019 parliamentary elections. Notably, results appear to be driven by mosques facilitating personal, horizontal interactions with Islamists, rather than exposure to Islamist social services, politicized imams, or underlying religiosity. Second, drawing on region-wide survey data from the Arab Barometer, it shows that respondents who attend mosque for Friday prayers are significantly more likely to trust Islamists, and that this is one of the most consistent predictors of Islamism across multiple survey waves. ∗Assistant Professor, William & Mary (
[email protected]). I am indebted to the phe- nomenal research assistance of Cassie Heyman-Schrum, Hank Hermens, and Amy Hilla. For helpful comments, I thank Nasir Almasri, Lucia Ardovini, Elizabeth Baisley, Steven Brooke, Melani Cammett, Matthew Cebul, M.Tahir Kilavuz, Alex Kustov, Marc Lynch, Ameni Mehrez, Elizabeth Nugent, Tom Pavone, Scott Williamson, and audiences at POMEPS, Oxford, Tulane, and Central European University. 1 Introduction When Islamists run in competitive elections in the Middle East, they tend to win.