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Essays on Political Elites and Violence in Changing Political Orders of Middle East and Africa

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Essays on Political Elites and Violence in Changing Political Orders of Middle East and Africa Essays on Political Elites and Violence in Changing Political Orders of Middle East and Africa Andrea Carboni A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geography University of Sussex March 2020 2 Statement I hereby declare that this thesis has not been, and will not be, submitted in whole or in part to this or any other University for the award of any other degree. This thesis incorporates published works and works submitted for publication. I confirm that I am the sole author of Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7. Chapters 5, 6 and 8 include co-authored work. I confirm I am the sole author of Chapters 5.1, 5.2, and 5.4.3, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 and 6.4, and 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, and 8.5. Signature:..................................................................................... Andrea Carboni Date:............................................................................................ 3 Table of contents Thesis summary ................................................................................................................ 5 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 7 1.1. Understanding political elites and violence ........................................................ 7 1.2. Scope of the research ........................................................................................ 13 1.3. Outline of thesis ................................................................................................ 15 1.4. Main findings ................................................................................................... 19 2. Literature review ...................................................................................................... 23 2.1. Framing political violence ................................................................................ 23 2.2. Framing political elites ..................................................................................... 26 2.3. The ‘political marketplace’ framework. Political elites as business managers in Africa and the Middle East .......................................................................................... 29 2.4. Linking elites, political orders and patterns of violence................................... 33 3. Research design and methodology .......................................................................... 36 3.1. Methods ............................................................................................................ 36 3.2. Sources and data collection practices ............................................................... 39 4. Non-party ministers and consensual politics in Tunisia .......................................... 42 4.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 42 4.2. Political elites and non-party ministers ............................................................ 44 4.3. Ministerial elites in Tunisia, 1987 to 2017 ....................................................... 48 4.4. Ben Ali and the politics of exclusion ............................................................... 56 4.5. The politics of consensus in post-revolutionary Tunisia .................................. 59 4.6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 61 5. Crisis cabinets and the influence of protests on elite volatility in Africa ................ 64 5.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 64 5.2. Cabinets as coalition building and crisis mitigation ......................................... 66 5.3. Protest, cabinet volatility and crisis cabinets in Africa, 2007-2018 ................. 70 5.4. The politics of crisis cabinets after mass protests ............................................ 77 5.5. Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 86 6. Rebooting the System. Regime cycles, elites, and succession in African States .... 88 6.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 88 6.2. Explanations of regime change in Africa ......................................................... 90 6.3. The authoritarian regime cycle ......................................................................... 94 6.4. Reassembling the regime: The Army’s power grab in Algeria ........................ 97 4 6.5. The power being the curtain: Managing the transition in Sudan ................... 101 6.6. Zimbabwe’s Second Republic is indistinguishable from the First ................. 105 6.7. Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 108 7. Taming the snakes. The Houthis, Saleh and the struggle for power in Yemen ..... 111 7.1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 111 7.2. The role of elite cohesion ............................................................................... 113 7.3. Patronage politics and elite cohesion in Yemen ............................................. 116 7.4. The Houthi-Saleh alliance .............................................................................. 119 7.5. Methodology and data .................................................................................... 120 7.6. Elite cohesion and the crumbling of the Houthi-Saleh alliance ..................... 125 7.7. Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 130 8. Between the cracks. Actor fragmentation and local conflict systems in the Libyan Civil War ....................................................................................................................... 133 8.1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 133 8.2. Governance: limited statehood, political order and non-state authority ........ 135 8.3. Insurgent fragmentation and conflict dynamics ............................................. 137 8.4. Contested statehood and violence in the Libyan Civil War, 2014-2017 ........ 139 8.5. Understanding Libya’s political orders .......................................................... 151 8.6. Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 157 9. Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 159 9.1. Summary of findings ...................................................................................... 160 9.2. Implications for future research...................................................................... 163 10. References .............................................................................................................. 166 10.1. Bibliography ................................................................................................... 166 10.2. Interviews ....................................................................................................... 191 11. Appendix ................................................................................................................ 193 11.1. Non-party ministers and consensual politics in Tunisia ................................. 193 11.2. Crisis cabinets and the influence of protests on elite volatility in Africa ....... 200 11.3. Taming the snakes. The Houthis, Saleh and the struggle for power in Yemen ... ........................................................................................................................ 208 11.4. Between the Cracks: Actor Fragmentation and Local Conflict Systems in the Libyan Civil War ....................................................................................................... 212 5 Thesis summary University of Sussex Andrea Carboni A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geography Essays on Political Elites and Violence in Changing Political Orders of Middle East and Africa This research project addresses the question of how political elites’ behaviour varies when competition among them is heightened. Focusing on changing political orders across Africa and the Middle East, it seeks to understand how political elites facing internal and external challenges manipulate local power structures for political survival purposes, resulting in distinct political trajectories. The thesis argues that local political and conflict environments are conditional on the nature of competition among elites. Volatile political transitions, intense popular unrest, and militarised environments all create distinct incentives and constraints which shape political orders, and determine the inclusion or exclusion of select elites in the resulting political settlement. Using a mixed-method research design which combines quantitative and qualitative methodologies, the thesis consists of five essays exploring select topics and three in-depth case studies. The essays address two cross-cutting themes. First, they show how elites reconfigure institutional structures to cement alliances and survive internal or external
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