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Papua New Guinea Disaster Monitor The Format: asiapacific . 1. The Facts fact sheets 2. The Forces 3. The Faces 4. The Forecasts 5. The Focus 6. The Future 7. The Footnotes Photo: C. Eckrom g The Series: Looking at countries in the context of natural catastrophes positions World Vision to better predict, prevent or prepare for the onslaught of di- sasters. The rationale is simple: disasters can wipe out years of development in mere minutes. Reducing disaster risks is not an optional extra – but an extra obligation. It is at the heart of sustainable development. Papua New Guinea 1. The Facts With more than 700 native tongues, Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the world's most linguistically diverse nation. However, many tribal groups have little or no contact with each other – let alone the outside world. More than 80% live in rural areas with few or no facilities. Situated on the Pacific Ring of Fire, at the point of collision of several tectonic plates, PNG is prey to volcanic activity, earthquakes and tidal waves. The fast facts follow: The Independent State of Papua New Guinea Population: 6.1 million (1) Share of income or consumption, poorest 10% in percent [richest 10%] 1.7% [40.5%] (2) Share of income or consumption, poorest 20% in percent [richest 20%] 4.5% [56.5%] (2) Life expectancy at birth, annual estimates (2005) 56.9 years (1) Adult illiteracy rate (15 and older, 1995-2005) 42.7% (3) Children underweight for age (under age 5, 1996-2005) 35% (4) Population not using an improved water source, in percent (2004) [real figures] 61% [3.7 million] (5) Physicians (per 100,000 people, 2000-04) 5 [equals one doctor per 20,000 people] (6) Human Development Index (HDI) value [rank] 0.530 [rank: 145 of 177] (7,8) Natural Disaster Index (NDI) value [risk; rank] 1.9 [risk: "extreme"; rank: 23 of 204] (9,10,12) Date: 6 February 2008 FACTSHEET 1 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2. The Forces “People who live in the Pacific Islands or Papua New Guinea are among the most vulnerable to disasters any- where on earth. The threat of tidal surges, earthquakes, volcanoes and storms is ever present. Now they face a new challenge, climate change and rising sea levels.” (Laurence Gray, World Vision Advocacy Director Asia Pacific Regional Office) (11) Disaster Environment: The severity of any disaster de- ¢ Figure 1: Impact from 40 natural disasters (summary for 1990-2007) pends on two factors: the country context within which Human Impact Cumulative Total Annual Average the disaster occurs, and the nature and force of the on- 1. People killed 3,084 171 slaught itself. Given a country context like that of Papua New Guinea with poor infrastructure and only one doctor 2. People affected 1,160,814 64,490 for every 20,000 people, catastrophes can be cataclysmic. 3. Damage caused US$ 162.2 million US$ 9 million PNG's disaster environment is defined in large by its geo- ¢ Figure 2: Prevalence of natural disasters by types graphical location on the Pacific Ring of Fire, an area of fre- (period: 1990-2007; total: 40 disasters) quent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions encircling the basin of the Pacific Ocean. Its vast land area, diverse and Flood rugged geography, populous highlands, dense rainforests Slides 19% and highly exposed coastal regions make the monitoring Epidemic 15% and mitigation of disasters extremely difficult. The chall- 10% enges are compounded by the fact that many tribes live Volcano within non-monetarised isolated economies. Earthquake 22% 17% Disaster Definition: The Center for Research on the Drought Wave / Surge Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) defines a disaster as a 3% 3% "situation or event, which overwhelms local capacity, ne- Wind Storm Wild Fires cessitating a request to national or international level for 8% 3% external assistance; an unforeseen and often sudden event that causes great damage, destruction and human suffer- (12) ing." For a disaster to be entered into the EM-DAT data- ¢ Figure 3: Number of people affected by natural disaster types base, at least one of the following criteria must be fulfilled: (period: 1990-2007; total: 1,160,814 people affected) • 10 or more people reported killed Epidemic Wave / Surge • 100 people reported affected 3,610 Slides 9,867 • Declaration of a state of emergency Flood 15,803 Volcano 207,193 • Call for international assistance Earthquake 194,730 31,071 Wild Fires 8,000 Past Years: Using this definition, the years 1990-2007 have seen PNG impacted by 40 natural disasters. The ma- Wind Storm 190,540 jority of these disasters have featured little in international Drought news but amount to great developmental destruction 500,000 when added together (figure 1). The pie charts show the prevalence of natural catastrophes by disaster types (figure 2) and the number of people affected by them (figure 3). ¢ Figure 4: Worst disasters (by people killed; period: 1930-2007) Volcanoes are the most prevalent (22%) natural disaster ac- Top Three Disasters (Date) People killed tivity, tsunamis the most deadly (2,182 people killed) and 1. Volcano (15 January 1951) 3,000 droughts exert the most far-reaching effect on the popula- 2. Wave / Surge (17 July 1998) 2,182 tion (more than 500,000 people affected). 3. Volcano (29 May 1937) 506 Past Century: Mega-disasters – sometimes called "disas- ters of the century" – occur less frequently, but their de- ¢ Figure 5: Worst disasters (by people affected; period: 1930-2007) structive force can overpower a vulnerable nation. Figures Top Three Disasters (Date) People affected 4 and 5 show two perspectives of the top three natural di- 1. Drought (September 1997) 500,000 sasters in Papua New Guinea since record-keeping began 2. Volcano (19 September 1994) 152,002 in 1930. [Data based on (12).] 3. Wind Storm (12 November 2007) 143,000 FACTSHEET 2 PAPUA NEW GUINEA “Manam Motu” is an inhabited island created from the activity of the Manam volcano. Its 9,000 islanders who live in the volcanic shadow have their own language called “Manam Pile” (literally “Manam Talk”). As subsistence farmers their livelihoods are under constant threat from cinder, ash falls and sulphuric fumes. One eyewitness said, “The earth shakes and the houses and all the trees bend over whenever the volcano thunders. It is so frightening.” Photo: H. Gubala 3. The Faces Manam is one of six high-risk volcanoes in Papua New Guinea. It is 1807 metres high (3000 metres from the ocean floor) and erupts frequently. The earliest documented eruption occurred in 1616 and the most recent in 2007 (ongoing). (15) In 2004 is was the site of the largest eruption in the world. There were no fatalities. How- ever, thousands of islanders were evacuated after suffering weeks of sustained scoria and ash pollution (photo). The volcano first erupted on 24 October 2004 and The arrivals looked sick and tired, carrying with them remained active throughout November, completely bury- all their belongings. Small children were among the group, ing the villages of Bokure, Kolang and Warise under hot carrying their own domestic animals such as cats, dogs and lava. However, villagers trained by World Vision in disaster chickens. People also brought canoes, special seedlings and preparedness in 2003 mitigated the effects so that islanders other items with them. According to World Vision Relief responded quickly and managed to flee before the lava hit. Manager Harry Gubala who was on site and assisted in the Prior to being evacuated to Bogia, all 18 villages on Manam evacuation, the most vulnerable people were taken to (total population 9,467) were in desperate need of food, Bogia Health Centre as soon as they arrived at the wharf. water, shelter and medicine as a result of ash fall pollution. Many children looked malnourished after surviving on ash- Islanders called the eruption "the worst" in their lifetime. affected food crops and water for over a month. g PNG's Volcanoes 15 November 2004 Volcanic eruptions (red), Manam Ash plume from Manam volcano volcano (white). [Smithsonian Inst.] captured by NASA's Terra Satellite. Photo: S. Ivahupa, World Vision 28 November 2004 28 November 2004 Manam volcano eruption: Smoke seen from sea on 26 October 2004, two days after first major eruption. Preparedness training car- Ship transporting evacuees from Evacuated Manam islanders. ried out in 2003 mitigated disaster effects and averted loss of life. Manam Island to Bogia wharf. Photos left and right: H. Gubala FACTSHEET 3 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 4. The Forecasts “The countries most vulnerable are least able to protect themselves.” (Kofi Annan) (16) “There are times for hoping for the best and for not wanting to sound ‘alarmist.’ But the forecasts are alarming. There comes a time for recognising that we have overstepped the mark and have no right to be taking the reckless risks we are taking; and for issuing an urgent clarion call for action. That time is now.” (Brett Parris) (17) The Trends: Over recent decades, the number of natural Global Forecasts: Recent assessment reports by the disasters has steadily risen, both globally, regionally (figure UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1) and nationally (figure 2). Past progressions (below) and the recognised global authority on climate change honoured future forecasts (right) speak the same language. with the Nobel Peace Prize 2007, have released substan- tive scientific forecasts about global climate change: (18) ¢ Figure 1: Natural disasters trend, Asia / World (1975-2006) (12) • Probable temperature rise by 2100: 1.8-4.0º C Number of Natural Disasters in • Probable sea level rise: 18-59 cm Asia and the World (1975-2006) Rising sea levels mean more and more severe floods. The trend is not only expected to continue but to accelerate.
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