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Zimbabwe's Gifted Leader Faces Manifold Problems

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Zimbabwe's Gifted Leader Faces Manifold Problems _A C ON-American Committee on Africa Zimbabwe's Gifted Leader Faces Manifold Problems George M. llouser Aiil this r11ti1h' itas being c(liltd /' w il'liwtitllil. Rohcrt iut an agreement wtas worked out. an uneasY (case-fire A/u ,al,/c. Zimalme sI'mc I',. tateltlini in /h' midt , / his was arranged, elections were held, and an findependent nation was horn. So when one talks pessimistically about first tro ol visit to the 'I 'ntl, 'I d it' I l tiii 'd SItl's Zimbabwc's future so soon after independence. one must .inc' his nitionti t hicvl illdict 'i/llc. It h lh I AN, im keep in mind the miracle of the peace and of indepen hatic ita ticholet'd into il r.hi, tilit is /lo g itwas dence under majority rule. the problems an independent raised il the 'N P'laza it 1 dramalti cicioi li. /it Pcw Zimbabwe faces nov are indeed formidable. Nevertheless York Altl a/ardn "Meet thc IPrc'" and oll,1~,7he the hopes of stability and of success in tackling these problems are realizable. A/ac cii/ l.'/r'r R'portll iltI'tCSsilt tili. Iitial re-a i i/ic lri 'eAMitistcr has /,ifil orlh/c in I/ictradiioll he qui~avesahihdklcipwr oig The Outlook for Stability .I1ulabc'.N i-isit inci-itahli rai.wcs tit'.sitirs ahow hi.s loi /nt 'i l turc/ll . iraIt','e ale l to ;cor'tc ]lollivet. a What are some of the immediate problems Zimbabwe faces? One is: ('an a tolerable political stability be frqucii't (oia tri to - to tIs 'tagc v nd I' c'it i dire or o / i maintained? The Zimbabwe African National Union the. I crian ( tommittee oln A fria. /or his as.cs.me/ol th/ (ZANU) led by Robert Mugabe, won an overwshelming .silllinnionI]Icr'e. victory in the elections held in the closing days of Feb ruary. ZANU won 57 seats: Joshua Nkomo's party, renamed the Patriotic Front just before he elections (Formerly the Zimbabwe African Peoples Union ZAPU). W IIAS AIi.All for Zimbabse'? I's easy to be pes won 20 seats; Bishop Abel Muzorewa's United African sin istic. That would be nothing new, in thinking National ('ouncil won 3 seats: and the white party, the about the former British colony of Rhodesia, long domi Rhodesian Front. headed bv lan Smith. field the 20 seats nated bsia small \,.hite minority, sw'hich achieved in set aside for it under the constitution. dependence only four montlhs ago after 14 years of Stability might be threatened from two sources. One guerrilla warfare. Yet, who would have thought in August would be the white minoritv that ruled 979 that the ('ommonwealth Conference held in Zambia Rhodesia from 1890 to 1980. Whites now number about 3 percent of the could influeice the newly elected (onsrcvative (ioN'ern population. The time has passed for an. attlempl at a white ment of Britain to open a ness round of negotiating coup. There would be no external support now for a between thc wsarring political clemcnts thee? Or ssio military overthrow of the present government by a tiny would have through t three months of negotiating fat at w hite minority. Not even South Africa could aff'ord to London's Lancaster louse, from September until almost (lristnas. could result in an agreeient ftor cease back it tip. a fire, a Dissent from the whites, now numliering something new constitution, and elections that would usher in the over 200.(XX). is being expres,;ed instead by emiligration. new state of Zimbabs e? lowever, fewer whites are leaving Zimbabwe now about ('ertainlI close obeixcrs of cscnls in Rhodesia v.oild 15W) a month according to the most reccr stuitics than not hae been numnbcrcd alliong lhe oplimIst at that time. during the latter years of the struggle for indepcndcn(ce. Nor did nany of the principals reprcscnting the vaiious 1 his might have an efiect on the efliciency of government contenditiL political nioveiileIits in Rhodesia anticipate for the present, or on the evenness of economic progress, that those discussions would be crowiied with success. but not on overall political stability. (Tvo leaders of one of the Zimbabwe os,cmcnits tol me lie more serious dissent might come from some on the eve of the Lancaster louse discussions that they elements of ZAPtJ. the long-tifie competing movement. expected the London meetings to last no more than two Their stronghold is in the Ndebele-speaking areas where weeks.) less than 20 percent of the people livc. Real tensions do the period leading up to the February elections allpolitical exist between ZANU and ZAPU, which together formed parties promised better paying jobs. better housing. more the Patriotic Front alliance and carried on the successful land, free health care and education, a slate financed guerrilla war and the ncgotiations at Lancaster louse. As pension system, etc. E'ven before the date of indepen a move toward maintaining political unity. Mugabe gave dence. April 18. the Mugabe Government was forced to ZAPU four ministries in his Cabinet. I he only one of deal with the demand of workers for wage increases. major significance was Home Affairs, which wits given to Industrial workers in Salisbury and Bulawayo went on Nkomo. strike for higher wages. Four thousand black miners quit Joshua Nkomo is the grand old man of Zimbabwe work on May 2 in the coal fields of Wankie. Other workers politics. le was president of all the nationalist movements left their jobs in breweries, engineering companies, and successively banned by the white government, from the even large agricultural estates. African National Congress in 1957 to ZAPU. ZANU split The new minister of labor. Kumbirai Kangai, a guerrilla from ZAPU in 1963, and they have carried on a sometimes leader a few months earlier, listened carefully to the heated political competition, both internally and exter grievances and called for patience while the Government nally, ever since. They were drawn together in an uneasy established itself. A national minimum wage of 70 Zim but effective alliance both in the struggle for independence babwe dollars per month was set in commerce, industry and in the negotiations. But suspicions and the competi and mining and of $30 in private domestic service and tion still exist. agriculture. (The Zimbabwe dollar is worth 50 percent Some elements in ZAPU may be thinking of ways of more than the US dollar.) Although this was an increase unseating Mugabe's Government by other than constitu over the average pay during the Ian Smith days, it is still tional methods, but their success would be very below the poverty datum line calculated by the University questionable. There would not be serious international of Zimbabwe nine months earlier. Also, as a means of support for such an effort. F:urthermore. it is not Nkomo's easing the people's financial burden, the general sales tax style. Other leadership would have to supplant Nkomo was reduced from 15 percent to 10 percent and sugar, tea, before such an attempt would become believable. margarine and cooking oil were exempted from the tax Although the question of stability is a legitimate one to altogether. raise, and political tensions both from the white minority So far the Government has been able to keep the lid on and from the ZAPU adherents can be expected to contin the frustrations of the people and to set some reforms in ue, the chances for a tolerable stability are good. motion. But further substantial gains will have to be made A second question is: Can successful military in the near future. integration take place? At the time of independence there The Government must also face the land problem were four major military organizations: the Security immediately. Of the rural population, 80 percent live in Forces of the Rhodesian Government (about 40,000), the 165 tribal trust lands; 20 percent live on European Muzorewa's Auxiliary Force (26.(X)0) and the two armies owned farms, which have the most fertile land. Some 5500 of the Patriotic Front (ZANU's Zimbabwe African Na white farmers own 39 percent of the land, and they tional Liberation Army-ZANLA and ZAPU's Zim producc most of the crops. supplying all the food for the babwe Peoples Revolutionary Army- ZIPRA-together cities and for 70 percent of the tribal trust lands. number about 35,000). The Auxiliary Force has been Mugabe's policy is to acquire land for redistribution by disbanded since independence. The process of integrating taking that which is not in use or is underused. In an the other forces has only begun. The ZANLA and ZIPRA interview on "The McNcil/Lchrer Report" (March 24) forces are still in about 14 assembly points around the Muabe said, "There is a lot of unused land in the country, country. There are some roving military bands in rural land which is unoccupied. Some is under absentee areas of the country. but these have not been a threat to ownership. This is the land we arc going to get for stability. purposes of land resettlement before we can consider the necessity of acquiring any other land." It is estimated that Immediately after independence Mugabe announced upto 12.5 million acres may be made available in this way. that Lt. Gen. Peter Walls, commander of the Rhodesian 'Iie Government hits said that it will compensate the forces during the long years of the struggle, would owners for all land taken and estimates this will cost some maintain this position and head the unified defense force.
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