Key Skills and Competences for Defence EDA contract reference: 14.CPS.OP.030 Annex B Lucia Retter, Louise Taggart and Jon Freeman The work described in this report was carried out under EDA contract. Responsibility for the contents resides with the organisation that prepared it. RAND Europe RAND Europe RR-1226/1-EDA 10 March 2015 Annex B - Current and Prospective European Equipment Programmes This Annex accompanies Chapter 3 and presents three tables: • A table of current procurement programmes with major involvement (design and production) of European defence industry (Table B.1) • A table of maintenance and upgrades requirements currently on contract (Table B.2) • A table of prospective requirements treated as likely in open source literature (Table B.3) The data underpinning this Annex comes from publically available sources; principally: IHS Jane’s, IISS Military Balance 2014 and SIPRI Trade Register. Additional search with regard to specific programmes was conducted through other open source literature such as defence magazines (e.g. Defence Industry Daily), company press releases and other public media websites (e.g. the Guardian, the BBC, etc). The difficulty to access accurate data on cost, schedule, workshare arrangements or even the full coverage of a given contract in the defence sector is well known. Using publically available data naturally carries with it several risks in terms of its accuracy: • Publically available data is likely to underestimate the number of procurement programmes as some programmes will not be made known to open sources due to national security reasons or due to lack of transparency. The level of information varies per programme and per country (i.e. cost and schedule information is not available for many large programmes) • Publically available data on cost of programmes is likely to underestimate the true cost1 • Publically available data points are difficult to validate and verify and different information may appear in different (and equally reliable) sources With these caveats in mind, this Annex seeks to provide some indication of developments in the European defence equipment market, with a focus on those programmes that require significant design and production contribution by European companies (and hence ‘European’ skills). Our analysis does not consider joint programmes with majority share of non- EU companies (such as the Joint Strike Fighter Programme) even though we do recognise that these programmes contain an element of EU companies’ involvement and thus their skills (especially in areas such as management, certification and maintenance). 1 See past RAND studies highlighting underestimation of cost in defence procurement such as Arena et al (2006). 1 2 Table B.1. Current procurement programmes Specific Type of designation Producer Delivery Quantity Contract value Notes Sources equipment (recipient (country) schedule country) IISS.2014. The Military Balance 2014. London: From 2013 Order cut from 250 to Routledge Deployment on 200 Acquitaine - Originally 200 to be Missile threat. 2013. ‘SCALP Guided precision SCALP Naval MBDA (FR, UK, Originally 910m EUR class in 2014 200 fitted on Aquitaine-class Naval/MCDN.’ George C. weapons (FR) IT) BUT for 250 msl Deployment on frigates (16 per ship) and Marshall and Claremont Barracuda - 50 on Barracuda (12 per Institutes, 2 April 2013, 4:50 class on 2017 ship) p.m. As of 08/12/2014: http://missilethreat.com/missi les/scalp-navalmdcn/ Next generation Beyond IISS.2014. The Military Visual Range Air-to-Air Balance 2014. London: Missile system (BVRAAM) Routledge Guided precision MBDA (FR, UK, that will totally Meteor (FR) 2018 200 Unknown weapons IT) revolutionise air-to-air MBDA. ‘Meteor, Beyond combat in the 21st visual range air-to-air missile century : new technology (BVRAAM)’. As of so new skills 08/12/2014: 2 AT= Austria, BE=Belgium, DE= Germany, ES= Spain, FI= Finland, FR= France, IT= Italy, NL= Netherlands, PL= Poland, SE= Sweden, UK= United Kingdom 2 http://www.mbda- Compatible with systems.com/mediagallery/fil Eurofighter, Typhoon, es/Meteor_ds.pdf Rafale, Gripen and potentially F-35 Lightning IHS Jane’s, 20/12/2013. II Joint Strike Fighter ‘Jane’s Sentinel Security First production missile Assessment – Western manufactured from the Europe. Procurement France.’ end of 2012 For trials in late F.21 2015 and are expected IHS Jane’s, 20/12/2013. Support weapons heavyweight DCNS (FR) and 420 million EUR to be commissioned in ‘Jane’s Sentinel Security / small arms/ torpedo (also Atlas Elektronik 2015 (2008) 2016 Assessment – Western artillery called (DE) To be used on Barracuda Europe. Procurement France.’ Artemis) (FR) class submarines Diehl Defence Diehl, 2013. ‘Diehl receives (DE) Swedish Air Defence As partner of the Contract’, 11/03/2013. SEK1 billion (2013) European missile Support weapons German-led 01:44 p.m. As of for the initial tranche program, Sweden has / small arms/ IRIS-T SLS (SE) consortium, which 2016 08/12/2014: according to some already introduced the artillery also includes http://www.diehl.com/en/nc Swedish accounts IRIS-T air-to-air missile for Italy, Norway, /diehl-defence/press/diehl- its Gripen fighter aircraft. Sweden and receives-swedish-air-defence- Greece contract/6.html Diehl Defence 700 (DE) operational IHS Jane’s, 20/12/2013. Support weapons Funding to integrate IRIS-T German-led missiles, 70 247.32 million EUR ‘Jane’s Sentinel Security / small arms/ IRIS-T SLS (ES) 2010-2020 on Spain's EF-18 Hornets consortium, which training (2009) Assessment – Western artillery has also been earmarked. also includes missiles and Europe. Procurement Spain.’ Italy, Norway, associated 3 Sweden and test and Greece support equipment L43A5 BAE Systems, 2014. ‘BAE Support weapons 105mm 60 000 20.31 million EUR Systems wins $16,8 million / small arms/ Illuminating BAE Systems (UK) 2014-2016 rounds (2014) illuminating shell contract’, 7 artillery artillery shells April 2014. (UK) Common Development of the Sea IHS Jane’s, 31/12/2013. Support weapons Anti-air 2016 MBDA (FR, UK, 583.72 million EUR Ceptor shibome local ‘Jane’s Sentinel Security / small arms/ Modular (in-service-time IT) (2012) area defence system for Assessment – Western artillery Missile 2015-2020) the Royal Navy Europe. Procurement UK.’ (CAMM)(UK) Project to replace the legacy MBDA Sea Skua IHS Jane’s, 31/12/2013. air-to-surface missile; and ‘Jane’s Sentinel Security France's Anti-Navire Assessment – Western Future Anti- At best tested Léger (ANL) light anti-ship Europe. Procurement UK.’ Surface in 2017-early missile programme. Guided 2018 Defense Industry Daily, 2014. Weapon - A MoU was signed by Guided precision MBDA (FR, UK, USD827 million ‘Light Naval Strike: MBDA’s Heavy France is David Cameron and weapons IT) (2014) Sea Venom / ANL Missile’. (FASGW-H) planning to François Hollande on 31 28 October 2014, 05:12 (for both equip its January 2014 for the p.m. As of 08/12/2014: France and NH90 by production of the http://www.defenseindustryd the UK) 2020 FASGW. aily.com/light-naval-strike- Integration contract was mbdas-fasgw-h-anl-missile- awarded to Augusta 012879/ Westland by the UK for GBP90 million 4 Vulcano extended- IHS Jane’s, 16/11/2013. Support weapons range ‘Jane’s Sentinel Security / small arms/ Oto Melara (IT) 2015-2016 projectile Assessment – Western artillery programme Europe. Procurement Italy.’ (IT) Support weapons Diehl (DE) SEK168 m ($25 m) RBS-15 Mk-3 / small arms/ Licence contract 2014-2016 15 deal (SEK83 m option SIPRI Register Trade (DE) artillery with Saab (SE) on more) (2012) EUR70 m deal; for 4 Support weapons 127/64LW F-125 frigates / small arms/ Oto Melara (IT) 2012-2018 5 SIPRI Register Trade (DE) produced in FRG and artillery 1 for training (2007) IHS Jane’s, 19/02/2014. Support weapons Krab Self- HSW (PL) [license PLN500 million ‘Jane’s Sentinel Security / small arms/ Propelled agreement with 2020 24 (2012) Assessment – Western artillery Howitzer (PL) BAE System (UK)] Europe. Procurement Poland.’ Support weapons PzH-2000 Part of EUR1.9 b deal / small arms/ 155mm Rheinmetall (DE) 2015-2018 24 SIPRI Trade Register (2013) artillery (Qatar) Paveway-4 version Paveway IV Guided precision GBP150 m ($250 m) for Typhoon and (Saudi Raytheon (UK) 2015 2400 SIPRI Trade Register weapons (2013) modernised Tornado Arabia) combat aircraft 5 Additional order for 332 in Sept. 2009 bringing the total amount to 630 Renault is in charge of the IHS Jane’s, 20/12/2013. mobility systems and on ‘Jane’s Sentinel Security board electrical networks Assessment – Western Nexter is responsible for Europe. Procurement France.’ 2008-2015 the armoured hull, interior Sénat, 2012. ‘Projet de loi de VBCI 8x8 (already 400 EUR3.49 billion furnishing, assembly and A vehicle Nexter (FR) 630 finances pour 2013: Défense: (FR) in service in (2012) integration of the turret équipement des forces’. As of 2013) and vehicle, observation, 08/12/2014 : command and control, http://www.senat.fr/rap/a1 weapons and self- 2-150-8/a12-150- protection system 815.html#toc290 The first 5 prototypes were delivered in 2004 and the first 3 production vehicles in May 2008 342 IFVs and 8 driver training vehicles IISS.2014. The Military Training of vehicle and Balance 2014. London: 2014 for the maintenance instructors Routledge first ones, EUR3.1 billion (for should begin by the end Foss, Cristopher. F. 2014. production 405 vehicles as of the year, with training ‘German Puma IFV moves should be initially ordered), A vehicle Puma (DE) PSM (DE) 350 of operational users to towards service’. IHS completed in revised down to begin in mid-2015. Jane’s/Berlin, 2 September 2020 but EUR2.7 billion (2012) Two of the five pre- 2014. As of 08/12/2014: could be for 350 production Puma IFVs http://www.janes.com/articl extended have been fitted a pod of e/42659/german-puma-ifv- two EuroSpike long-range moves-towards-service anti-tank guided 6 weapons, and it is anticipated that this will be fitted to production vehicles.