Mount Yale Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2019 Contents

Pg. 1. Summary 3 2. Growth, Inflation & Policy 8 3. Equities 18 4. Fixed Income & Credit 26 5. Real Assets 34 6. Opportunistic 38 7. Asset Allocation 42 Cartoon: The Gloves Are Off 4Q, 2019

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 3 Q3, 2019 Market Review QTD & YTD TOTAL RETURNS

26.8

20.6 19.2

15.7 16.1 14.2 13.3 12.6 12.5 13.0 11.4 11.1 8.5 7.7 6.2 6.8 5.4 4.7 4.5 3.4 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.8 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.6

-0.4 -1.0 -0.7 -2.4 -1.8 -4.1 -5.0

QTD YTD

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 4 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Market Returns from Key Events Date TOTAL RETURNS, AS OF 10/18/19

3/10/00 10/9/02 10/9/07 (Tech (Tech (Housing 11/8/16 3/22/18 7/31/19 Bubble Bubble Bubble 3/9/09 (Trump 1/26/18 (start of 9/20/18 12/24/18 7/26/19 (Trade War Asset Class Benchmark peak) low) high) (GFC low) election) (Jan high) Trade War) (Sep high) (Dec low) (SPX ATH) escalation) ■ US REITs MSCI US REIT GR 11.6 11.5 6.2 20.0 10.5 14.9 21.0 18.3 33.4 8.0 7.5 ■ Municipal High Yield Bonds Bloomberg US Muni HY 6.1 6.3 5.3 8.8 6.5 8.7 9.4 10.4 9.7 2.2 2.1 ■ Global Real Estate Sec's S&P Global Property 9.9 10.2 3.5 16.5 9.9 6.0 10.8 14.1 24.6 5.1 5.6 ■ Gold LBMA Gold Price PM Fix 8.7 9.5 6.0 4.6 5.2 5.7 7.9 23.3 18.4 4.9 4.4 ■ US Interm-Term Bonds Bloomberg U.S. Agg Bond 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.2 5.3 6.8 10.4 8.6 2.1 1.9 ■ US High Yield Bonds Bloomberg US Corporate HY 7.2 8.9 7.2 11.7 6.3 4.8 6.3 6.8 12.3 1.0 1.0 ■ Emerging Market Bonds JPM EMBI Global Diversified TR 8.7 8.8 6.9 9.1 5.1 4.6 6.9 12.9 13.2 0.5 0.5 ■ US Large Cap Stocks S&P 500 Index 6.0 10.5 7.8 17.4 14.2 4.3 8.4 4.1 29.1 -0.8 0.7 ■ Closed-End Funds S-Network Composute CEFs - - 6.0 13.7 8.9 4.1 6.5 7.0 22.9 0.6 0.4 ■ US Interm-Term Muni Bonds Bloomberg Muni 1-10 Year 4.1 3.5 3.7 3.4 2.6 3.9 4.8 6.8 5.1 0.4 0.3 ■ Insurance-Linked Securities SwissRe Global Cat Bond - 7.0 6.5 6.8 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.7 4.3 3.0 2.8 ■ US Leveraged Loans S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan TR 4.8 5.0 4.5 8.1 4.2 3.4 3.3 2.9 6.0 -0.1 -0.3 ■ Short-Term Bonds Bloomberg 1-3 Year Treasury 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.7 3.0 3.3 4.7 3.5 0.9 0.9 ■ Cash Bloomberg 1-3 Mth Treasury 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.5 ■ Intl Dev Ex-US Real Est. S&P Global Ex 8.7 10.2 2.0 14.6 9.7 -0.2 3.9 11.2 18.9 3.1 4.4 ■ Developed Ex-US Bonds S&P International Sov Ex-US Bond TR - 4.6 2.7 2.8 2.3 -0.4 -0.2 4.5 5.3 0.8 0.4 ■ US Small Cap Stocks Russell 2000 Index 6.3 11.0 6.6 16.7 10.4 -1.3 -0.4 -9.3 22.6 -2.4 -2.1 ■ Intl Dev Ex-US Stocks MSCI EAFE GR 3.7 8.2 1.7 10.9 8.8 -3.7 0.4 0.7 17.9 1.0 2.0 ■ Commodity Futures Bloomberg Commodity 0.4 -0.3 -5.7 -2.2 -0.5 -6.0 -4.4 -3.9 3.8 0.4 0.0 ■ US Micro Cap Stocks Russell Micro Cap TR - 9.7 4.7 15.9 7.8 -6.1 -6.6 -16.8 14.9 -4.2 -4.0 ■ Emerging Market Stocks MSCI EM GR 6.6 11.4 1.0 10.3 7.4 -9.1 -7.0 1.9 10.8 -1.7 -0.7 ■ Energy Partnerships (MLPs) Alerian MLP Index 11.2 9.5 4.4 9.9 -1.7 -9.4 1.2 -13.6 11.1 -10.6 -9.3 ■ Bitcoin MVIS CryptoCompare Bitcoin - - - - 141.8 -16.9 -6.0 25.4 112.2 -17.9 -19.4 ■ Cryptocurrencies MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Top 25 - - - - 154.2 -61.0 -49.7 -30.1 19.6 -33.2 -32.0

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 5 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Trade War-Related Headlines S&P 500 VS. SELECT TRADE WAR-RELATED HEADLINES, LAST 12 MONTHS

S&P 500, Growth Index 110

108

105

103 Sep 20 100 Sep 13 Oct 16 Oct 1, 2018 Jun 30 Sep 26 98 Oct 11 Aug 29 May 95 Mar 9 May 15 Dec 3, 2018 4 May 26 93 Feb 18 90 Nov 16, 2018 Dec 12, 2018 88

85 Jan 9

83 Dec 30, 2018

70 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 6 Source: Bloomberg, Various. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. The Catch-22 Market FEEDBACK LOOPS OF THE TRADE WAR & MONETARY POLICY CYCLES

Administration is Powell hints at tough on trade with China raising rates

Administration sees Markets sell-off on rally as endorsement, Rally loosens no progress is made Markets sell-off on rate hike fears Trade War fears financial conditions and helps growth

Market rallies on Administration hints Markets rally on Fed hints at easing news at resolution news or more QE

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 7 Source: Mike Shedlock, SpringTide SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Global Manufacturing: PMIs Potentially Bottoming, Inching Up Markit Manufacturing PMIs, JAN 16-SEP 19

2016 2017 2018 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Global 50.9 50.0 50.6 50.2 50.1 50.4 51.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 52.0 52.6 52.7 52.9 52.9 52.7 52.6 52.6 52.7 53.1 53.2 53.4 54.0 54.5 54.4 54.1 53.3 53.5 53.1 53.0 52.8 52.6 52.2 52.1 52.0 51.5 50.7 50.6 50.6 50.4 49.8 49.4 49.3 49.5 49.7

Developed 52.1 50.8 50.9 50.5 50.3 51.1 51.4 51.2 51.5 52.6 52.9 53.7 54.1 54.1 53.9 54.1 54.1 53.8 53.9 54.2 54.6 55.2 55.8 56.2 56.3 55.7 54.9 55.1 54.7 54.4 54.0 53.8 53.6 53.2 52.8 52.3 51.8 50.4 49.9 50.2 49.2 48.9 48.6 48.8 48.6 Emerging 49.4 48.9 50.2 49.6 49.6 49.3 50.3 50.1 50.4 51.1 50.8 51.1 50.8 51.3 51.6 50.9 50.6 50.8 50.9 51.7 51.4 51.2 51.6 52.2 51.9 51.9 51.3 51.3 51.1 51.2 51.0 50.8 50.3 50.5 50.8 50.3 49.5 50.6 51.6 50.5 50.4 49.9 50.1 50.4 51.0

Developed U.S. 52.4 51.3 51.5 50.8 50.7 51.3 52.9 52.0 51.5 53.4 54.1 54.3 55.0 54.2 53.3 52.8 52.7 52.0 53.3 52.8 53.1 54.6 53.9 55.1 55.5 55.3 55.6 56.5 56.4 55.4 55.3 54.7 55.6 55.7 55.3 53.8 54.9 53.0 52.4 52.6 50.5 50.6 50.4 50.3 51.1 Canada 49.3 49.4 51.5 52.2 52.1 51.8 51.9 51.1 50.3 51.1 51.5 51.8 53.5 54.7 55.5 55.9 55.1 54.7 55.5 54.6 55.0 54.3 54.4 54.7 55.9 55.6 55.7 55.5 56.2 57.1 56.9 56.8 54.8 53.9 54.9 53.6 53.0 52.6 50.5 49.7 49.1 49.2 50.2 49.1 51.0 Japan 52.3 50.1 49.1 48.2 47.7 48.1 49.3 49.5 50.4 51.4 51.3 52.4 52.7 53.3 52.4 52.7 53.1 52.4 52.1 52.2 52.9 52.8 53.6 54.0 54.8 54.1 53.1 53.8 52.8 53.0 52.3 52.5 52.5 52.9 52.2 52.6 50.3 48.9 49.2 50.2 49.8 49.3 49.4 49.3 48.9 UK 52.2 50.8 51.1 50.0 50.6 53.1 48.6 53.3 55.3 54.1 53.3 55.5 55.2 54.5 54.1 57.7 56.5 54.3 55.5 57.1 55.6 56.6 58.4 55.7 55.0 54.9 54.8 53.9 54.2 54.2 53.9 53.0 53.8 51.1 53.6 54.2 52.8 52.0 55.1 53.1 49.4 48.0 48.0 47.4 48.3 Eurozone 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.5 60.1 60.6 59.6 58.6 56.6 56.2 55.5 54.9 55.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 51.8 51.4 50.5 49.3 47.6 47.9 47.7 47.6 46.5 47.0 45.7 Germany 52.3 50.5 50.7 51.8 52.1 54.5 53.8 53.6 54.3 55.0 54.3 55.6 56.4 56.8 58.3 58.2 59.5 59.6 58.1 59.3 60.6 60.6 62.5 63.3 61.1 60.6 58.2 58.1 56.9 55.9 56.9 55.9 53.7 52.2 51.8 51.5 49.9 47.6 44.7 44.4 44.3 45.0 43.2 43.5 41.7 France 50.0 50.2 49.6 48.0 48.4 48.3 48.6 48.3 49.7 51.8 51.7 53.5 53.6 52.2 53.3 55.1 53.8 54.8 54.9 55.8 56.1 56.1 57.7 58.8 58.4 55.9 53.7 53.8 54.4 52.5 53.3 53.5 52.5 51.2 50.8 49.7 51.2 51.5 49.8 50.0 50.6 51.9 49.7 51.1 50.1 Italy 53.2 52.2 53.5 53.9 52.4 53.5 51.2 49.8 51.0 50.9 52.2 53.2 53.0 55.0 55.7 56.2 55.1 55.2 55.1 56.3 56.3 57.8 58.3 57.4 59.0 56.8 55.1 53.5 52.7 53.3 51.5 50.1 50.0 49.2 48.6 49.2 47.8 47.7 47.4 49.1 49.7 48.4 48.5 48.7 47.8 Spain 55.4 54.1 53.4 53.5 51.8 52.2 51.0 51.0 52.3 53.3 54.5 55.3 55.6 54.8 53.9 54.5 55.4 54.7 54.0 52.4 54.3 55.8 56.1 55.8 55.2 56.0 54.8 54.4 53.4 53.4 52.9 53.0 51.4 51.8 52.6 51.1 52.4 49.9 50.9 51.8 50.1 47.9 48.2 48.8 47.7 Netherlands 52.4 51.7 53.6 52.6 52.7 52.0 53.2 53.5 53.4 55.7 57.0 57.3 56.5 58.3 57.8 57.8 57.6 58.6 58.9 59.7 60.0 60.4 62.4 62.2 62.5 63.4 61.5 60.7 60.3 60.1 58.0 59.1 59.8 57.1 56.1 57.2 55.1 52.7 52.5 52.0 52.2 50.7 50.7 51.6 51.6 Australia 52.1 50.8 50.9 50.5 54.2 52.6 51.9 52.2 55.0 55.9 57.1 57.2 55.3 55.7 56.3 55.5 55.9 56.2 54.4 53.5 53.8 55.5 56.3 57.1 55.4 55.6 54.3 55.5 53.2 55.0 52.4 53.2 54.0 54.5 54.6 54.0 53.9 53.1 52.0 50.9 51.0 52.0 51.6 50.9 50.3 Greece 50.0 48.4 49.0 49.7 48.4 50.4 48.7 50.4 49.2 48.6 48.3 49.3 46.6 47.7 46.7 48.2 49.6 50.5 50.5 52.2 52.8 52.1 52.2 53.1 55.2 56.1 55.0 52.9 54.2 53.5 53.5 53.9 53.6 53.1 54.0 53.8 53.7 54.2 54.7 56.6 54.2 52.4 54.6 54.9 53.6

Emerging China 48.4 48.0 49.7 49.4 49.2 48.6 50.6 50.0 50.1 51.2 50.9 51.9 51.0 51.7 51.2 50.3 49.6 50.4 51.1 51.6 51.0 51.0 50.8 51.5 51.5 51.6 51.0 51.1 51.1 51.0 50.8 50.6 50.0 50.1 50.2 49.7 48.3 49.9 50.8 50.2 50.2 49.4 49.9 50.4 51.4 Indonesia 48.9 48.7 50.6 50.9 50.6 51.9 48.4 50.4 50.9 48.7 49.7 49.0 50.4 49.3 50.5 51.2 50.6 49.5 48.6 50.7 50.4 50.1 50.4 49.3 49.9 51.4 50.7 51.6 51.7 50.3 50.5 51.9 50.7 50.5 50.4 51.2 49.9 50.1 51.2 50.4 51.6 50.6 49.6 49.0 49.1 Korea 49.5 48.7 49.5 50.0 50.1 50.5 50.1 48.6 47.6 48.0 48.0 49.4 49.0 49.2 48.4 49.4 49.2 50.1 49.1 49.9 50.6 50.2 51.2 49.9 50.7 50.3 49.1 48.4 48.9 49.8 48.3 49.9 51.3 51.0 48.6 49.8 48.3 47.2 48.8 50.2 48.4 47.5 47.3 49.0 48.0 Taiwan 50.6 49.4 51.1 49.7 48.5 50.5 51.0 51.8 52.2 52.7 54.7 56.2 55.6 54.5 56.2 54.4 53.1 53.3 53.6 54.3 54.2 53.6 56.3 56.6 56.9 56.0 55.3 54.8 53.4 54.5 53.1 53.0 50.8 48.7 48.4 47.7 47.5 46.3 49.0 48.2 48.4 45.5 48.1 47.9 50.0 Brazil 47.4 44.5 46.0 42.6 41.6 43.2 46.0 45.7 46.0 46.3 46.2 45.2 44.0 46.9 49.6 50.1 52.0 50.5 50.0 50.9 50.9 51.2 53.5 52.4 51.2 53.2 53.4 52.3 50.7 49.8 50.5 51.1 50.9 51.1 52.7 52.6 52.7 53.4 52.8 51.5 50.2 51.0 49.9 52.5 53.4 Mexico 52.2 53.1 53.2 52.4 53.6 51.1 50.6 50.9 51.9 51.8 51.1 50.2 50.8 50.6 51.5 50.7 51.2 52.3 51.2 52.2 52.8 49.2 52.4 51.7 52.6 51.6 52.4 51.6 51.0 52.1 52.1 50.7 51.7 50.7 49.7 49.7 50.9 52.6 49.8 50.1 50.0 49.2 49.8 49.0 49.1 Russia 49.8 49.3 48.3 48.0 49.6 51.5 49.5 50.8 51.1 52.4 53.6 53.7 54.7 52.5 52.4 50.8 52.4 50.3 52.7 51.6 51.9 51.1 51.5 52.0 52.1 50.2 50.6 51.3 49.8 49.5 48.1 48.9 50.0 51.3 52.6 51.7 50.9 50.1 52.8 51.8 49.8 48.6 49.3 49.1 46.3 South Africa 49.6 49.1 47.0 47.9 50.2 49.6 49.9 49.8 50.7 50.5 50.8 51.6 51.3 50.5 50.7 50.3 50.2 49.0 50.1 49.8 48.5 49.6 48.8 48.4 49.0 51.4 51.1 50.4 50.0 50.9 49.3 47.2 48.0 46.9 48.2 49.0 49.6 50.2 48.8 50.3 49.3 49.7 48.4 49.7 49.2 India 51.1 52.4 50.5 50.7 51.7 51.8 52.6 52.1 54.4 52.3 49.6 50.4 50.7 52.5 52.5 51.6 50.9 47.9 51.2 51.2 50.3 52.6 54.7 52.4 52.1 51.0 51.6 51.2 53.1 52.3 51.7 52.2 53.1 54.0 53.2 53.9 54.3 52.6 51.8 52.7 52.1 52.5 51.4 51.4

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 8 Source: Bloomberg, Markit. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. World Trade Confirms Global Manufacturing Recession WORD TRADE VOLUME YOY %, 1993 – JUL 19

World Trade Volume, YoY % 20

-5

-10

-15

-20 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

World Trade Volume (% Y/Y)

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 9 Source: St. Louis Fed, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Manufacturing Exports Suggest Weaker Business Spending Ahead ISM BUSINESS EXPORTS VS. BUSINESS EQUIPMENT INVESTMENT, JAN 00 – SEP 19

ISM Business Exports Index Business Equipment Investment, Y/Y % 70 30

65 20

10 55

0 50

45 -10

40 -20

-30 30

25 -40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ISM Manufacturing Business Exports Index [LHS] Business Equipment Investment, Y/Y % [RHS]

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 10 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Bracing for a Slowdown in Hiring ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX & ISM NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX, OCT 99 – OCT 19

ISM Diffusion Index 65

25 Oct-99 Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19

ISM Manufacturing Employment Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 11 Source: ISM, Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. U.S. Consumer Still In Relatively Good Shape REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES INDEX Y/Y, JAN 03 – AUG 19

U.S. Real PCE, Y/Y % 6

-1

-2

-3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

U.S. Real PCE, Y/Y %

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 12 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. U.S. Consumer Still In Relatively Good Shape REAL PERSONAL CONSUMSELECT FINANCIAL SECTOR EXECUTIVE COMMENTS, 3Q19 EARNINGS

…consumers continue to show resilience and remain a meaningful source of strength in the U.S. economy." “David Solomon, CEO Goldman Sachs

…in terms of the U.S., but when you globally look at the consumer, consumer’s in fine shape.“ “Mike Corbat, CEO Citigroup

...the U.S. consumer is incredibly strong. Consumer spending is strong. Sentiment is strong, so the “consumer credit is good." Jennifer Piepszak, CFO JPMorgan

...the U.S. consumer continues to benefit by strong employment prospects...commercial customers continue “to fare well. " Brian Moynihan, CEO Bank of America

We continue to see a healthy U.S. consumer...While consumer confidence recently moderated a bit, overall “levels are near the highest they've been over the past two decades" Jeff Brown, CEO Ally Financial

...the consumer right now is performing extremely well, we've got 50 employment. Debt servicing levels “are actually at a 39-year low. They're under 10%, and so ability to pay continues to be strong" Jenn LaClair, CFO Ally Financial

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 13 Source: Company call transcripts SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Average Tariffs on China Expected to be >23% By Year End AVERAGE TARIFF RATE ON U.S. IMPORTS FROM CHINA, AS OF 10/11/2019

Average Tariff Rate 25% 23.8%

21.0%

20% 17.6%

15%

12.0%

10%

5% 3.1%

0% 2017 2018 May 2019 Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Section 301: 10% Section 301: 10% Section 301: new Section 301: 15% tariff on $200 Bn; tariff on $200 Bn 15% tariff on first tariff on second part 25% tariff on $50 raised to 25% part of $300 Bn of $300 Bn Bn ■MFN Tariff ■Other Tariffs ■Section 301

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 14 Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Repo Markets Highlighting Growing Structural Imbalances OVERNIGHT REPO RATE, 1992 - 2019

U.S. Overnight Repo Rate, % 8

0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

U.S. Overnight Repo Rate

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 15 Source: Bloomberg, ICAP. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. QE or “Not QE”? U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE TOTAL ASSETS & 4-WEEK CHANGE, 2/10/10 - 10/16/19

Total Assets, $Bn 4-Week Change, $Bn 4,600 400 380 4,400 360 “NOT QE” 340 4,200 QE 320 300 4,000 280 260 3,800 240 220 3,600 200 180 3,400 160 140 3,200 120 100 3,000 80 60 2,800 40 20 2,600 0 -20 2,400 -40 -60 2,200 -80 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Assets (4-Week Change) Total Assets

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 16 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Will “QE” Drive Growth & Treasury Yields Higher? U.S. 10-YR TREASURY YIELD & GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI, OCT 09 – SEP 19

U.S. 10-Yr Treasury Yield, % Global Manufacturing PMI 4.5

57 4

3.5 55 QT end

3 53

2.5

QE2 51 (Jackson 2 Hole)

49 1.5

QE1 QE2 Twist QE3 QE3 ECB QE ECB QE ECB QE FED QT Shadow QE (taper) 1 47 Oct-09 Jun-10 Feb-11 Oct-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 Jun-16 Feb-17 Oct-17 Jun-18 Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20

U.S. 10-Yr Treasury Yield Global Manufacturing PMI

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 17 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Equity Summary TRAILING & CALENDAR YEAR TOTAL RETURNS, AS OF 10/19/19

Index Growth 180

160

140

120

100

60 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19

S&P 500 Index MSCI ACWI Index MSCI EM Index MSCI EAFE Index

Asset Class Benchmark 1-Wk MTD QTD YTD 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr U.S. Large Cap Stocks S&P 500 TR 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 20.4 -4.4 21.8 12.0 1.4 13.7 11.1 13.9 11.5 13.1 Intl Dev Stocks MSCI EAFE NR 2.3 0.4 0.4 13.3 -13.8 25.0 1.0 -0.8 -4.9 5.6 7.1 4.5 4.9 Emerging & Frontier Mkt StocksMSCI EM NR 1.5 1.1 1.1 7.1 -14.6 37.3 11.2 -14.9 -2.2 8.7 6.3 2.9 3.1 Global Stocks MSCI ACWI NR 1.3 0.1 0.1 16.4 -9.4 24.0 7.9 -2.4 4.2 8.7 10.2 7.5 8.2

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 18 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Corporate Profits and S&P EPS NIPA PRE-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS VS. S&P 500 OPERATING EPS, JAN 93 – JUN 19

NIPA Adjusted Pre-Tax Corporate Profits, $ S&P 500 Index Operating EPS, $ 3,000 160

2,750

140 2,500

2,250 120

2,000

100 1,750

1,500 80

1,250

60 1,000

750 40

500

250 20 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

NIPA Pre-Tax Corporate Profits with IVA & CCA adjustments [LHS] S&P 500 Index Operating EPS [RHS]

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 19 Source: Bloomberg, NIPA, S&P. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. U.S. Corporate Profit Margins Signaling Late Cycle U.S. CORPORATE PROFIT MARGINS FOR POST-1945 AVG, POST-1975 AVG AND CURRENT

U.S. Corporate Profit Margins, % 19%

17%

15%

13%

11%

5% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% 42% 48% 54% 60% 66% 72% 78% 84% 90% 96%

Percentage of Cycle Completion

Current Post 1945 Average Post 1975 Average

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 20 Source: FRED, NIPA. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. A Global Earnings Recession SINGAPORE ELECTRONIC EXPORTS & MSCI WORLD EPS, JAN 99 – SEP 19

Singapore Electronics Exports, % YoY MSCI World Trailing EPS, % YoY 50 1.5

30 1

10 0.5

-10 0

-20

-30 -0.5

-40

-50 -1 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Singapore Electronics Exports (YoY, LHS) MSCI World Trailing EPS (YoY, RHS)

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 21 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Large Source of Demand Slowing CORPORATE BUYBACKS BY S&P 500 SECTOR, 2000 – 2Q19

Billions, $ 250

200

150

100

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Communication Services Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Utilities

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 22 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Downside Risks of Higher Valuations with Weak Momentum S&P 500 1-YR FWD RETURNS: ALL DAYS VS. HIGH P/E + WEAK MOMENTUM DAYS, 1928 – 2019

% of Days 22%

20% PE: > 25x Y/Y PR: < 2% 18%

16%

14% ALL DAYS

12%

10%

All Days (1928-2019)

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 23 Source: Bloomberg, Shiller. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Earnings Calendar GLOBAL COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat 10/20 10/21 10/22 10/23 10/24 10/25 10/26 SAP Sap Se PG Procter & Gamble MSFT Microsoft AMZN Amazon.com VZ Verizon AMTD Td Ameritrade NVS Novartis Ag T AT&T Inc. V Visa Inc. BUD Anheuser-Busch CDNS Cadence MCD Mcdonald's BA Boeing INTC Intel Corp. TOT Total S.A. HAL Halliburton TXN Texas Instruments TMO Thermo Fisher CMCSAComcast Corp. CHTR Charter CE Celanese Corp. UTX United Technologies LLY Eli Lilly AZN Astrazeneca BASFY Basf Se ELS Equity Lifestyle NEE Nextera Energy CAT Caterpillar GILD Gilead Scien. ITW Illinois Tool LII Lennox Interna. LMT Lockheed Martin EQNR Statoil Asa ABEV Ambev S.A. PSX Phillips 66 ZION Zions Bancorpor. UPS United Parcel. ANTM Anthem, Inc. CELG Celgene AON Aon Plc LOGI Logitech MMM 3M Company VALE Vale S.a. NOC Northrop Grumma. IBN Icici Bank 10/27 10/28 10/29 10/30 10/31 11/1 11/2 GOOGL Alphabet Inc. MA Mastercard AAPL Apple Inc. RDS.A Royal Dutch Shell BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway GOOG Alphabet Inc. MRK Merck & Co. FB Facebook, Inc. SNY Sanofi BABA Alibaba WBA Walgreens PFE Pfizer Inc. GSK Glaxosmithkline AMT American Tower. XOM Exxon Mobil WELL Welltower Inc. BP BP GE General Electri. BMY Bristol-myers CVX Chevron NXPI Nxp Semiconduct. AMGN Amgen Inc. CME Cme Group Inc. MO Altria Group ABBV Abbvie Inc. FMX Fomento Economi. PTR Petrochina SNE Sony Corporatio. EL The Estee Lauder ENB Enbridge Inc. AVB Avalonbay Commu. SYK Stryker ADP Automatic Data. CI Cigna Corp. DUK Duke Energy IQV Iqvia Holdings FIS Fidelity SO Southern Compan. ICE Intercontinental CL Colgate WCN Waste Connectio. SNP China Petroleu. EPD Enterprise Prod. DD Dupont De Nemou. WLTW Willis Towers 11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 HSBC Hsbc Holdings TM Toyota Motor QCOM Qualcomm DIS Walt Disney ENB Enbridge Inc LIN Praxair, Inc. PBR Petroleo Brasil CVS CVS Health Corp. NVO Novo Nordisk DUK Duke Energy BKNG Booking Holdings FIS Fidelity Nation. ADDYY Adidas Ag BBD Banco Bradesco HMC Honda Motor ITUB Itau Unibanco BDX Becton, Dickins. E Eni Spa ZTS Zoetis Inc. AEE Ameren Corp. UBER Uber AGN Allergan Plc FISV Fiserv, Inc. APD Air Products MGA Magna Intern. DPSGY Deutsche Post BAMXF Bayerische Moto. SRE Sempra Energy ATVI Activision Bliz. UI Ubiquiti Inc. SYY Sysco EMR Emerson Electri. MFC Manulife Financ. KDP Keurig Dr Pepper AER Aercap Holdings MAR Marriott EC Ecopetrol S.A. EOG Eog Resources ED Consolidated Ed. STWD Starwood Proper PRU Prudential Fina. REGN Regeneron Pharm. HUM Humana Inc. CNQ Canadian Natura. ESNT Essent Group 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 TME Tencent Music TSN Tyson Foods TCEHY Tencent Hold. WMT Walmart Inc. FRO Frontline Ltd. IFNNY Infineon Tech. DHI D.r. Horton CSCO Cisco NVDA Nvidia KOD Kodiak Sciences LBRDK Liberty Broadba. CBS Cbs Corp. NTES Netease, Inc. JCI Johnson Controls JCP J. C. Penney FNV Franco-Nevada AAP Advance Auto Parts PAGS Pagseguro SSDOY Shiseido Co. FUV Arcimoto, Inc. EQH Axa Equitable ARMK Aramark NTAP Netapp, Inc. NSANY Nissan Motor IMAC Imac Holdings ATHM Autohome Inc. DOX Amdocs Limited WUBA 58.com Inc. TU Telus Corp. FWONK Liberty Media SAGE Sage Therapeuti. CGC Canopy Growth CQP Cheniere Energy LSXMK Liberty Media C. WIX Wix.com Ltd. CAE Cae Inc BAP Credicorp Ltd. UGI Ugi Corp. IAA Iaa, Inc. VIPS Vipshop SWKS Skyworks Soluti.

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 24 Source: Bloomberg, Zacks. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. A Rough Few Months for the Unicorns RETURN SINCE IPO AND LAST PRIVATE CAPITAL RAISE, AS OF 10/18/2019

Returns as of 10/18/2019, %

WeWork -82

340 Beyond Meat 379

84 Zoom 1,710

38 Crowdstrike 253

33 Pinterest 11 Trailing 23 Chewy Return, 218 3-Month 10 Beyond Meat Inc BYND -37.8 RealReal 73 Zoom Video Communications Inc ZM -29.2 CrowdStrike Holdings Inc Class A CRWD -43.7 -16 Slack 68 Pinterest Inc PINS -1.0 Chewy Inc CHWY -11.9 -29 Uber The RealReal Inc REAL -8.7 -28 Slack Technologies Inc Class A WORK -30.3 -43 Uber Technologies Inc UBER -25.8 Lyft -21 Lyft Inc Class A LYFT -39.5

-100 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900

Return since IPO Return since last private capital raise, post-money valuation

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 25 Source: Bloomberg, WeWork return since estimated-then-busted IPO price and current value of $8 billion as reported in WSJ. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Fixed Income & Credit Summary TRAILING & CALENDAR YEAR TOTAL RETURNS

Index Growth 140

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

85 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19

Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index Bloomberg U.S. Agg Index Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index S&P/ LSTA Leveraged Loan Index S&P/ Citi Intl Treasury Bond ex-U.S. Index

Asset Class Benchmark 1-Wk MTD QTD YTD 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr U.S. Municipal Bonds BBgBarc Municipal 1-10Y Blend 1-12Y TR -0.1 0.3 0.3 5.1 1.6 3.5 -0.1 2.4 4.7 3.7 1.7 2.3 3.2 U.S. Taxable Bonds BBgBarc US Agg Bond TR -1.0 -0.3 -0.3 8.2 0.0 3.5 2.6 0.5 6.0 2.7 1.8 2.3 3.7 U.S. High Yield Bonds BBgBarc US Corporate High Yield TR 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 11.2 -2.1 7.5 17.1 -4.5 2.5 4.5 9.5 4.5 11.5 U.S. Bank Loans S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan TR -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 6.0 0.4 4.1 10.2 -0.7 1.6 3.5 6.7 3.7 8.2 Intl Dev Bonds S&P International Sov Ex-US Bond TR -0.7 0.0 0.0 4.5 -2.3 11.3 1.6 -6.6 -2.1 -3.6 2.2 -0.3 2.5

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 26 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Long-term Global Debt GLOBAL DEBT-TO-GDP PERCENTAGE OF 12 COUNTRY SAMPLE, 1875 – 2015

Debt/GDP, % 100 Debt-to-GDP Debt-to-GDP (2007-2009 (2017-1Q 2019 WWII avg.) avg.) % Change 90 Euro Area 0.44 0.38 -13.5 Japan 0.32 0.27 -14.8 U.S. 0.43 0.40 -5.6 Global Financial Crisis 80 China 0.65 0.34 -38.2 All Countries* 0.47 0.42 -11.1

60 WWI

Russo-Japanese War

Great Depression 40

20 1875 1882 1889 1896 1903 1910 1917 1924 1931 1938 1945 1952 1959 1966 1973 1980 1987 1994 2001 2008 2015

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 27 Source: Bloomberg. *Countries included: United States, Switzerland, Germany, Sweden, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan and Spain. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. 10-Yr Government Bond Yields ELECT GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS, JAN 08 – OCT 19

Yield, % 6

-1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

U.S. 10-Yr Gov Bond Yield UK 10-Yr Gov Bond Yield Germany 10-Yr Gov Bond Yield Japan 10-Yr Gov Bond Yield Switzerland 10-Yr Gov Bond Yield

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 28 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Negative Yielding Debt & Gold GLOBAL NEGATIVE YIELDING DEBT MARKET CAP & GOLD, NOV 15 – OCT 19

Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt Mkt Cap, $Tn Gold, $/oz 18 1,600

16 1,500 14

12 1,400

10 1,300 8

6 1,200

4 1,100 2

0 1,000 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19

Global Negative Yielding Debt Gold

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 29 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Growing Disconnect Between Economy & Credit Markets ISM MANUFACTURING & NON-MFG INDICES VS. BBG HIGH YIELD INDEX, JAN 97 – SEP 19

ISM Manufacturing PMI Yield, % ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Yield, %

0 0

65 63

60 60 5 5

55 54 10 10

50 51

45 15 48 15

45 40

20 42 20

35 39

30 25 36 25 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

ISM Manufacturing PMI Junk Yields (Inverted) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Junk Yields (Inverted)

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 30 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Signs of Cracks in Lower Quality High Yield S&P 500 INDEX VS. CCC CREDIT SPREAD, OCT 17 – OCT 19

S&P 500 Index Spread (Inverted), Bps 3,300 600

3,100 700 2,900

2,700 800

2,500 900 2,300

2,100 1000

1,900 1100 1,700

1,500 1200 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

S&P 500 [LHS] CCC-Rated Spread [RHS]

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 31 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Corporate Interest Expense and BAA Yield BAA BOND YIELD AND CORPORATE INTEREST EXPENSE, 1969 - 2Q19

BAA Bond Yield, % Corporate Interest Expense Index 17.5 450

400 15.5

350

13.5 300

11.5 250

200 9.5

150 7.5

100

5.5 50

3.5 0 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Corporate Interest Expense BAA Bond Yield

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 32 Source: Bloomberg, FRED. NIPA SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. U.S. Bank Loans Underperform YIELD TO WORST, U.S. BANK LOANS VS. HIGH YIELD, U.S. AGGREGATE & EM, JUL 14 - 3Q19

Yield to Worst, % 10

1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 U.S. Bank Loans Emerging Market Debt U.S. High Yield Bonds U.S. Invest-Grade Bonds

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 33 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Real Asset Summary TRAILING & CALENDAR YEAR TOTAL RETURNS

Index Growth 200

180

160

140

120

100

40 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT TR Index S&P Global Ex-U.S. Property TR Index Bloomberg Commodity TR Index Alerian MLP TR Index Gold

Asset Class Benchmark 1-Wk MTD QTD YTD 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr U.S. REITs MSCI US REIT NR -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 25.4 -5.8 3.7 7.1 1.3 28.8 23.2 7.9 8.2 11.6 Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities S&P Global Ex US REIT TR 1.5 2.1 2.1 21.7 -6.5 16.7 4.0 -2.8 11.9 20.4 8.8 7.0 8.4 Broad Commodity Futures Bloomberg Commodity TR 1.2 1.4 1.4 4.6 -11.2 1.7 11.8 -24.7 -17.0 -6.1 -1.4 -6.8 -4.3 Energy Partnerships Alerian MLP TR -2.9 -4.1 -4.1 6.6 -12.4 -6.5 18.3 -32.6 4.8 -10.9 -3.4 -7.8 5.5 Gold LBMA Gold Price AM 0.3 1.4 1.4 17.7 -1.1 11.9 9.1 -11.4 -0.2 27.1 6.1 4.3 3.7

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 34 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Oil Prices Stabilized Quickly After the August Attacks WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE PER BARREL, YTD

Price/Barrel, $ 70

65 9/14/2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq processing facility and Khurais

8/17/2019 50 attacks on Saudi oil and gas fields in Shaybah.

45 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 35 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Gold: A Correction in a Bull Market COT MANAGED MONEY OPEN INTEREST VS. GOLD SPOT PRICE, OCT-13 – OCT-19

Open Interest Gold Price, $/Ounce 350,000 1,600

300,000

1,500 250,000

200,000 1,400

150,000

100,000 1,300

50,000

1,200 0

-50,000 1,100

-100,000

-150,000 1,000 Oct-2013 May-2014 Dec-2014 Jul-2015 Feb-2016 Sep-2016 Apr-2017 Nov-2017 Jun-2018 Jan-2019 Aug-2019

COT Managed Money Open Interest [LHS] Gold Spot Price [RHS]

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 36 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. MLP Yields Attractive & Sustainable MLP COMPOSITE YIELDS VS. U.S. TREASURY NOTE YIELD, 1998 – 3Q19

Yield, Yield Spread % 16

0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Springtide MLP Composite Spread 10-Year Treasury Yield SpringTide MLP Composite Yield U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Yield

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 37 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Opportunistic Summary TRAILING & CALENDAR YEAR TOTAL RETURNS

Index Growth 140

130

120

110

100

70 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 HFRX Equity Hedge Index HFRX Macro/ CTA Index HFRI Fund Wtd Composite Index S-Network Composite Closed End Fund Index HFRI Relative Value Index HFRX Short Bias Equity Index Swiss Re Global Cat Bond TR Index Asset Class Benchmark 1-Wk MTD QTD YTD 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr Long/Short Credit US Fund Long-Short Credit 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 5.9 -1.6 2.4 4.5 -2.6 2.6 3.5 3.1 2.4 4.0 Long/Short Equity US Fund Long-Short Equity 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 7.6 -6.3 11.2 2.3 -2.0 2.9 1.6 4.8 3.3 4.8 Managed Futures US Fund Managed Futures -0.9 -3.1 -3.1 4.0 -5.8 3.0 -2.8 -0.9 9.1 3.8 -0.5 1.2 -2.3 Options Overlay US Fund Options-based 0.5 0.4 0.4 10.5 -5.5 9.1 5.4 -0.5 4.4 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.3 Short Bias Equity US Fund Bear Market -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -20.9 7.2 -27.0 -21.1 -5.1 -17.5 -11.6 -17.2 -17.3 -20.3 Insurance-Linked Securities SwissRe Global Cat Bond TR 0.7 0.8 0.8 4.3 2.8 0.5 6.6 4.3 5.9 2.8 2.7 3.8 6.2 Closed-End Funds S-Network Composite Closed-End TR 0.4 0.0 0.0 18.5 -8.5 14.4 14.9 -1.1 5.6 10.9 8.4 7.2 7.8

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 38 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Value Trying To Catch Up to Growth S&P 500 PURE VALUE INDEX VS. S&P 500 PURE GROWTH INDEX, JAN 19 – OCT 19

Growth Index 125

120

115

110

105

100

95 Jan-2019 Feb-2019 Mar-2019 Apr-2019 May-2019 Jun-2019 Jul-2019 Aug-2019 Sep-2019 Oct-2019

S&P 500 Pure Value Index S&P 500 Pure Growth Index

Ratio 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 Jan-2019 Feb-2019 Mar-2019 Apr-2019 May-2019 Jun-2019 Jul-2019 Aug-2019 Sep-2019 Oct-2019

S&P 500 Pure Value/ S&P 500 Pure Growth Ratio

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 39 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Is Bitcoin Becoming Digital Gold? BITCOIN PRICE, OCT-14-3Q19

Price, $

25,600

12,800

6,400

3,200

1,600

800

400

200

100 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19 Mar-20 Aug-20

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 40 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Loans, International Equity CEFs Getting Interesting CLOSED-END FUND SECTOR PREMIUM/DISCOUNT TO NAV, JAN 03 – OCT 19

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 41 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Equity Yields Competitive Relative to Bonds S&P 500 DIVIDEND YIELD - U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE, 1983 - 3Q19

Spread, % 2

DIVIDEND YIELD > TREASURY YIELD 0 DIVIDEND YIELD >< TREASURY YIELD

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 42 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Correlation Matrix

5-YEAR TRAILING CORRELATIONS, AS OF 3Q19

U.S.Small MicroCap & Stocks IntlDev Small IntlDev Micro Stocks & EmergingFrontier & Stocks GlobalStocks U.S.Municipal Bonds U.S.HighYield Muni U.S.Bonds Taxable U.S.HighYield Bonds Loans U.S.Bank Bonds IntlDev EmeringFrontier & Bonds PublicBDCs U.S.REITs U.S.Securities RealEx Estate CommodityFutures EnergyPartnerships Gold Long/ShortEquity Futures Managed Long/ShortCredit FundsClosed-End Insurance-LinkedSecurities DigitalAssets Cash Bitcoin Asset Class StocksU.S. LargeCap U.S. Large Cap Stocks 1.00 U.S. Small & Micro Cap 0.87 1.00 Intl Dev Stocks 0.80 0.64 1.00 Intl Dev Small & Micro Stocks 0.80 0.67 0.96 1.00 Emerging & Frontier Stocks 0.69 0.46 0.87 0.85 1.00 Global Stocks 0.96 0.80 0.93 0.92 0.84 1.00 U.S. Municipal Bonds -0.10 -0.29 0.09 0.12 0.18 0.00 1.00 U.S. High Yield Muni -0.06 -0.25 0.11 0.18 0.14 0.02 0.87 1.00 U.S. Taxable Bonds -0.14 -0.27 -0.01 0.03 0.05 -0.07 0.82 0.80 1.00 U.S. High Yield Bonds 0.75 0.64 0.78 0.79 0.66 0.81 0.18 0.18 0.10 1.00 U.S. Bank Loans 0.64 0.59 0.59 0.63 0.43 0.65 -0.11 -0.09 -0.29 0.79 1.00 Intl Dev Bonds 0.10 -0.11 0.34 0.38 0.45 0.24 0.55 0.54 0.61 0.17 -0.12 1.00 Emering & Frontier Bonds 0.32 0.11 0.57 0.54 0.61 0.47 0.61 0.55 0.58 0.62 0.26 0.61 1.00 Public BDCs 0.70 0.81 0.54 0.55 0.39 0.66 -0.12 -0.07 -0.10 0.73 0.66 -0.13 0.29 1.00 U.S. REITs 0.42 0.41 0.32 0.37 0.20 0.39 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.54 0.33 0.19 0.40 0.60 1.00 Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities 0.56 0.39 0.73 0.74 0.66 0.67 0.41 0.45 0.44 0.60 0.31 0.65 0.67 0.45 0.65 1.00 Commodity Futures 0.58 0.52 0.49 0.51 0.45 0.58 -0.17 -0.12 -0.26 0.43 0.53 -0.05 0.13 0.38 0.21 0.33 1.00 Energy Partnerships 0.71 0.65 0.63 0.61 0.50 0.71 0.02 0.01 -0.07 0.63 0.52 0.01 0.29 0.66 0.51 0.58 0.60 1.00 Gold 0.00 -0.18 0.14 0.16 0.28 0.09 0.50 0.44 0.57 0.13 -0.14 0.71 0.54 -0.09 0.13 0.43 0.01 -0.05 1.00 Long/Short Equity 0.92 0.87 0.87 0.90 0.80 0.95 -0.04 -0.02 -0.09 0.80 0.67 0.18 0.42 0.71 0.37 0.61 0.61 0.72 0.06 1.00 Managed Futures 0.47 0.22 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.48 0.30 0.27 0.41 0.36 0.13 0.43 0.42 0.09 0.26 0.51 0.22 0.31 0.47 0.41 1.00 Long/Short Credit 0.77 0.70 0.81 0.81 0.72 0.83 0.03 0.03 -0.10 0.85 0.75 0.07 0.50 0.71 0.41 0.59 0.59 0.84 -0.02 0.87 0.29 1.00 Closed-End Funds 0.81 0.76 0.83 0.86 0.71 0.86 0.22 0.21 0.13 0.91 0.69 0.21 0.59 0.77 0.60 0.69 0.50 0.69 0.12 0.87 0.31 0.85 1.00 Insurance-Linked Securities 0.21 0.06 0.15 0.16 0.29 0.21 -0.01 0.03 -0.02 0.18 0.22 0.13 0.14 0.03 0.05 0.23 0.27 0.17 0.10 0.20 0.18 0.25 0.13 1.00 Digital Assets -0.02 -0.13 0.24 0.23 0.17 0.09 0.16 0.18 0.11 -0.02 -0.05 0.21 0.15 -0.26 -0.15 0.23 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.12 1.00 Cash -0.08 -0.17 -0.19 -0.25 -0.22 -0.14 0.33 0.26 0.40 -0.11 -0.17 0.16 0.14 -0.04 0.30 0.15 -0.03 0.04 0.26 -0.22 0.17 -0.17 -0.05 -0.07 -0.27 1.00 Bitcoin 0.00 -0.15 0.13 0.12 0.07 0.05 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.02 0.02 0.16 0.19 -0.31 -0.07 0.09 0.13 -0.07 0.10 0.01 0.19 0.00 0.01 0.13 0.71 -0.16 1.00

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 43 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Disclaimer & Terms of Use

DISCLAIMER Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Any opinions expressed are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice. This report may include estimates, projections or other forward-looking statements, however, due to numerous factors, actual events may differ substantially from those presented. The graphs and tables making up this report have been based on unaudited, third-party data and performance information provided to us by one or more commercial databases. Additionally, please be aware that past performance is not a guide to the future performance of any manager or strategy, and that the performance results and historical information provided displayed herein may have been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. Therefore, it should not be inferred that these results are indicative of the future performance of any strategy, index, fund, manager or group of managers. While we believe this information to be reliable, Mount Yale Investment Advisors, LLC (“Mount Yale”) bears no responsibility whatsoever for any errors or omissions. Index benchmarks contained in this report are provided so that performance can be compared with the performance of well-known and widely recognized indices. Index results assume the re- investment of all dividends and interest. Moreover, the information provided is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security, investment, or portfolio allocation. This presentation is not meant as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client's accounts should or would be handled, as appropriate investment decisions depend upon the client's specific investment objectives.

TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. Expert use implied.

4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 44