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Mount Yale Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2019 Contents

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Mount Yale Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2019 Contents Mount Yale Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2019 Contents Pg. 1. Summary 3 2. Growth, Inflation & Policy 8 3. Equities 18 4. Fixed Income & Credit 26 5. Real Assets 34 6. Opportunistic 38 7. Asset Allocation 42 Cartoon: The Gloves Are Off 4Q, 2019 4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 3 Q3, 2019 Market Review QTD & YTD TOTAL RETURNS 26.8 20.6 19.2 15.7 16.1 14.2 13.3 12.6 12.5 13.0 11.4 11.1 8.5 7.7 6.2 6.8 5.4 4.7 4.5 3.4 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.8 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 -2.4 -1.8 -4.1 -5.0 QTD YTD 4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 4 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Market Returns from Key Events Date TOTAL RETURNS, AS OF 10/18/19 3/10/00 10/9/02 10/9/07 (Tech (Tech (Housing 11/8/16 3/22/18 7/31/19 Bubble Bubble Bubble 3/9/09 (Trump 1/26/18 (start of 9/20/18 12/24/18 7/26/19 (Trade War Asset Class Benchmark peak) low) high) (GFC low) election) (Jan high) Trade War) (Sep high) (Dec low) (SPX ATH) escalation) ■ US REITs MSCI US REIT GR 11.6 11.5 6.2 20.0 10.5 14.9 21.0 18.3 33.4 8.0 7.5 ■ Municipal High Yield Bonds Bloomberg US Muni HY 6.1 6.3 5.3 8.8 6.5 8.7 9.4 10.4 9.7 2.2 2.1 ■ Global Real Estate Sec's S&P Global Property 9.9 10.2 3.5 16.5 9.9 6.0 10.8 14.1 24.6 5.1 5.6 ■ Gold LBMA Gold Price PM Fix 8.7 9.5 6.0 4.6 5.2 5.7 7.9 23.3 18.4 4.9 4.4 ■ US Interm-Term Bonds Bloomberg U.S. Agg Bond 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.2 5.3 6.8 10.4 8.6 2.1 1.9 ■ US High Yield Bonds Bloomberg US Corporate HY 7.2 8.9 7.2 11.7 6.3 4.8 6.3 6.8 12.3 1.0 1.0 ■ Emerging Market Bonds JPM EMBI Global Diversified TR 8.7 8.8 6.9 9.1 5.1 4.6 6.9 12.9 13.2 0.5 0.5 ■ US Large Cap Stocks S&P 500 Index 6.0 10.5 7.8 17.4 14.2 4.3 8.4 4.1 29.1 -0.8 0.7 ■ Closed-End Funds S-Network Composute CEFs - - 6.0 13.7 8.9 4.1 6.5 7.0 22.9 0.6 0.4 ■ US Interm-Term Muni Bonds Bloomberg Muni 1-10 Year 4.1 3.5 3.7 3.4 2.6 3.9 4.8 6.8 5.1 0.4 0.3 ■ Insurance-Linked Securities SwissRe Global Cat Bond - 7.0 6.5 6.8 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.7 4.3 3.0 2.8 ■ US Leveraged Loans S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan TR 4.8 5.0 4.5 8.1 4.2 3.4 3.3 2.9 6.0 -0.1 -0.3 ■ Short-Term Bonds Bloomberg 1-3 Year Treasury 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.7 3.0 3.3 4.7 3.5 0.9 0.9 ■ Cash Bloomberg 1-3 Mth Treasury 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.5 ■ Intl Dev Ex-US Real Est. S&P Global Ex 8.7 10.2 2.0 14.6 9.7 -0.2 3.9 11.2 18.9 3.1 4.4 ■ Developed Ex-US Bonds S&P International Sov Ex-US Bond TR - 4.6 2.7 2.8 2.3 -0.4 -0.2 4.5 5.3 0.8 0.4 ■ US Small Cap Stocks Russell 2000 Index 6.3 11.0 6.6 16.7 10.4 -1.3 -0.4 -9.3 22.6 -2.4 -2.1 ■ Intl Dev Ex-US Stocks MSCI EAFE GR 3.7 8.2 1.7 10.9 8.8 -3.7 0.4 0.7 17.9 1.0 2.0 ■ Commodity Futures Bloomberg Commodity 0.4 -0.3 -5.7 -2.2 -0.5 -6.0 -4.4 -3.9 3.8 0.4 0.0 ■ US Micro Cap Stocks Russell Micro Cap TR - 9.7 4.7 15.9 7.8 -6.1 -6.6 -16.8 14.9 -4.2 -4.0 ■ Emerging Market Stocks MSCI EM GR 6.6 11.4 1.0 10.3 7.4 -9.1 -7.0 1.9 10.8 -1.7 -0.7 ■ Energy Partnerships (MLPs) Alerian MLP Index 11.2 9.5 4.4 9.9 -1.7 -9.4 1.2 -13.6 11.1 -10.6 -9.3 ■ Bitcoin MVIS CryptoCompare Bitcoin - - - - 141.8 -16.9 -6.0 25.4 112.2 -17.9 -19.4 ■ Cryptocurrencies MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Top 25 - - - - 154.2 -61.0 -49.7 -30.1 19.6 -33.2 -32.0 4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 5 Source: Bloomberg. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Trade War-Related Headlines S&P 500 VS. SELECT TRADE WAR-RELATED HEADLINES, LAST 12 MONTHS S&P 500, Growth Index 110 108 105 103 Sep 20 100 Sep 13 Oct 16 Oct 1, 2018 Jun 30 Sep 26 98 Oct 11 Aug 29 May 95 Mar 9 May 15 Dec 3, 2018 4 May 26 93 Feb 18 90 Nov 16, 2018 Dec 12, 2018 88 85 Jan 9 83 Dec 30, 2018 80 78 75 73 70 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 6 Source: Bloomberg, Various. SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. The Catch-22 Market FEEDBACK LOOPS OF THE TRADE WAR & MONETARY POLICY CYCLES Administration is Powell hints at tough on trade with China raising rates Administration sees Markets sell-off on rally as endorsement, Rally loosens no progress is made Markets sell-off on rate hike fears Trade War fears financial conditions and helps growth Market rallies on Administration hints Markets rally on Fed hints at easing news at resolution news or more QE 4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 7 Source: Mike Shedlock, SpringTide SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION. Global Manufacturing: PMIs Potentially Bottoming, Inching Up Markit Manufacturing PMIs, JAN 16-SEP 19 2016 2017 2018 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Global 50.9 50.0 50.6 50.2 50.1 50.4 51.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 52.0 52.6 52.7 52.9 52.9 52.7 52.6 52.6 52.7 53.1 53.2 53.4 54.0 54.5 54.4 54.1 53.3 53.5 53.1 53.0 52.8 52.6 52.2 52.1 52.0 51.5 50.7 50.6 50.6 50.4 49.8 49.4 49.3 49.5 49.7 Developed 52.1 50.8 50.9 50.5 50.3 51.1 51.4 51.2 51.5 52.6 52.9 53.7 54.1 54.1 53.9 54.1 54.1 53.8 53.9 54.2 54.6 55.2 55.8 56.2 56.3 55.7 54.9 55.1 54.7 54.4 54.0 53.8 53.6 53.2 52.8 52.3 51.8 50.4 49.9 50.2 49.2 48.9 48.6 48.8 48.6 Emerging 49.4 48.9 50.2 49.6 49.6 49.3 50.3 50.1 50.4 51.1 50.8 51.1 50.8 51.3 51.6 50.9 50.6 50.8 50.9 51.7 51.4 51.2 51.6 52.2 51.9 51.9 51.3 51.3 51.1 51.2 51.0 50.8 50.3 50.5 50.8 50.3 49.5 50.6 51.6 50.5 50.4 49.9 50.1 50.4 51.0 Developed U.S. 52.4 51.3 51.5 50.8 50.7 51.3 52.9 52.0 51.5 53.4 54.1 54.3 55.0 54.2 53.3 52.8 52.7 52.0 53.3 52.8 53.1 54.6 53.9 55.1 55.5 55.3 55.6 56.5 56.4 55.4 55.3 54.7 55.6 55.7 55.3 53.8 54.9 53.0 52.4 52.6 50.5 50.6 50.4 50.3 51.1 Canada 49.3 49.4 51.5 52.2 52.1 51.8 51.9 51.1 50.3 51.1 51.5 51.8 53.5 54.7 55.5 55.9 55.1 54.7 55.5 54.6 55.0 54.3 54.4 54.7 55.9 55.6 55.7 55.5 56.2 57.1 56.9 56.8 54.8 53.9 54.9 53.6 53.0 52.6 50.5 49.7 49.1 49.2 50.2 49.1 51.0 Japan 52.3 50.1 49.1 48.2 47.7 48.1 49.3 49.5 50.4 51.4 51.3 52.4 52.7 53.3 52.4 52.7 53.1 52.4 52.1 52.2 52.9 52.8 53.6 54.0 54.8 54.1 53.1 53.8 52.8 53.0 52.3 52.5 52.5 52.9 52.2 52.6 50.3 48.9 49.2 50.2 49.8 49.3 49.4 49.3 48.9 UK 52.2 50.8 51.1 50.0 50.6 53.1 48.6 53.3 55.3 54.1 53.3 55.5 55.2 54.5 54.1 57.7 56.5 54.3 55.5 57.1 55.6 56.6 58.4 55.7 55.0 54.9 54.8 53.9 54.2 54.2 53.9 53.0 53.8 51.1 53.6 54.2 52.8 52.0 55.1 53.1 49.4 48.0 48.0 47.4 48.3 Eurozone 52.3 51.2 51.6 51.7 51.5 52.8 52.0 51.7 52.6 53.5 53.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 57.4 58.1 58.5 60.1 60.6 59.6 58.6 56.6 56.2 55.5 54.9 55.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 51.8 51.4 50.5 49.3 47.6 47.9 47.7 47.6 46.5 47.0 45.7 Germany 52.3 50.5 50.7 51.8 52.1 54.5 53.8 53.6 54.3 55.0 54.3 55.6 56.4 56.8 58.3 58.2 59.5 59.6 58.1 59.3 60.6 60.6 62.5 63.3 61.1 60.6 58.2 58.1 56.9 55.9 56.9 55.9 53.7 52.2 51.8 51.5 49.9 47.6 44.7 44.4 44.3 45.0 43.2 43.5 41.7 France 50.0 50.2 49.6 48.0 48.4 48.3 48.6 48.3 49.7 51.8 51.7 53.5 53.6 52.2 53.3 55.1 53.8 54.8 54.9 55.8 56.1 56.1 57.7 58.8 58.4 55.9 53.7 53.8 54.4 52.5 53.3 53.5 52.5 51.2 50.8 49.7 51.2 51.5 49.8 50.0 50.6 51.9 49.7 51.1 50.1 Italy 53.2 52.2 53.5 53.9 52.4 53.5 51.2 49.8 51.0 50.9 52.2 53.2 53.0 55.0 55.7 56.2 55.1 55.2 55.1 56.3 56.3 57.8 58.3 57.4 59.0 56.8 55.1 53.5 52.7 53.3 51.5 50.1 50.0 49.2 48.6 49.2 47.8 47.7 47.4 49.1 49.7 48.4 48.5 48.7 47.8 Spain 55.4 54.1 53.4 53.5 51.8 52.2 51.0 51.0 52.3 53.3 54.5 55.3 55.6 54.8 53.9 54.5 55.4 54.7 54.0 52.4 54.3 55.8 56.1 55.8 55.2 56.0 54.8 54.4 53.4 53.4 52.9 53.0 51.4 51.8 52.6 51.1 52.4 49.9 50.9 51.8 50.1 47.9 48.2 48.8 47.7 Netherlands 52.4 51.7 53.6 52.6 52.7 52.0 53.2 53.5 53.4 55.7 57.0 57.3 56.5 58.3 57.8 57.8 57.6 58.6 58.9 59.7 60.0 60.4 62.4 62.2 62.5 63.4 61.5 60.7 60.3 60.1 58.0 59.1 59.8 57.1 56.1 57.2 55.1 52.7 52.5 52.0 52.2 50.7 50.7 51.6 51.6 Australia 52.1 50.8 50.9 50.5 54.2 52.6 51.9 52.2 55.0 55.9 57.1 57.2 55.3 55.7 56.3 55.5 55.9 56.2 54.4 53.5 53.8 55.5 56.3 57.1 55.4 55.6 54.3 55.5 53.2 55.0 52.4 53.2 54.0 54.5 54.6 54.0 53.9 53.1 52.0 50.9 51.0 52.0 51.6 50.9 50.3 Greece 50.0 48.4 49.0 49.7 48.4 50.4 48.7 50.4 49.2 48.6 48.3 49.3 46.6 47.7 46.7 48.2 49.6 50.5 50.5 52.2 52.8 52.1 52.2 53.1 55.2 56.1 55.0 52.9 54.2 53.5 53.5 53.9 53.6 53.1 54.0 53.8 53.7 54.2 54.7 56.6 54.2 52.4 54.6 54.9 53.6 Emerging China 48.4 48.0 49.7 49.4 49.2 48.6 50.6 50.0 50.1 51.2 50.9 51.9 51.0 51.7 51.2 50.3 49.6 50.4 51.1 51.6 51.0 51.0 50.8 51.5 51.5 51.6 51.0 51.1 51.1 51.0 50.8 50.6 50.0 50.1 50.2 49.7 48.3 49.9 50.8 50.2 50.2 49.4 49.9 50.4 51.4 Indonesia 48.9 48.7 50.6 50.9 50.6 51.9 48.4 50.4 50.9 48.7 49.7 49.0 50.4 49.3 50.5 51.2 50.6 49.5 48.6 50.7 50.4 50.1 50.4 49.3 49.9 51.4 50.7 51.6 51.7 50.3 50.5 51.9 50.7 50.5 50.4 51.2 49.9 50.1 51.2 50.4 51.6 50.6 49.6 49.0 49.1 Korea 49.5 48.7 49.5 50.0 50.1 50.5 50.1 48.6 47.6 48.0 48.0 49.4 49.0 49.2 48.4 49.4 49.2 50.1 49.1 49.9 50.6 50.2 51.2 49.9 50.7 50.3 49.1 48.4 48.9 49.8 48.3 49.9 51.3 51.0 48.6 49.8 48.3 47.2 48.8 50.2 48.4 47.5 47.3 49.0 48.0 Taiwan 50.6 49.4 51.1 49.7 48.5 50.5 51.0 51.8 52.2 52.7 54.7 56.2 55.6 54.5 56.2 54.4 53.1 53.3 53.6 54.3 54.2 53.6 56.3 56.6 56.9 56.0 55.3 54.8 53.4 54.5 53.1 53.0 50.8 48.7 48.4 47.7 47.5 46.3 49.0 48.2 48.4 45.5 48.1 47.9 50.0 Brazil 47.4 44.5 46.0 42.6 41.6 43.2 46.0 45.7 46.0 46.3 46.2 45.2 44.0 46.9 49.6 50.1 52.0 50.5 50.0 50.9 50.9 51.2 53.5 52.4 51.2 53.2 53.4 52.3 50.7 49.8 50.5 51.1 50.9 51.1 52.7 52.6 52.7 53.4 52.8 51.5 50.2 51.0 49.9 52.5 53.4 Mexico 52.2 53.1 53.2 52.4 53.6 51.1 50.6 50.9 51.9 51.8 51.1 50.2 50.8 50.6 51.5 50.7 51.2 52.3 51.2 52.2 52.8 49.2 52.4 51.7 52.6 51.6 52.4 51.6 51.0 52.1 52.1 50.7 51.7 50.7 49.7 49.7 50.9 52.6 49.8 50.1 50.0 49.2 49.8 49.0 49.1 Russia 49.8 49.3 48.3 48.0 49.6 51.5 49.5 50.8 51.1 52.4 53.6 53.7 54.7 52.5 52.4 50.8 52.4 50.3 52.7 51.6 51.9 51.1 51.5 52.0 52.1 50.2 50.6 51.3 49.8 49.5 48.1 48.9 50.0 51.3 52.6 51.7 50.9 50.1 52.8 51.8 49.8 48.6 49.3 49.1 46.3 South Africa 49.6 49.1 47.0 47.9 50.2 49.6 49.9 49.8 50.7 50.5 50.8 51.6 51.3 50.5 50.7 50.3 50.2 49.0 50.1 49.8 48.5 49.6 48.8 48.4 49.0 51.4 51.1 50.4 50.0 50.9 49.3 47.2 48.0 46.9 48.2 49.0 49.6 50.2 48.8 50.3 49.3 49.7 48.4 49.7 49.2 India 51.1 52.4 50.5 50.7 51.7 51.8 52.6 52.1 54.4 52.3 49.6 50.4 50.7 52.5 52.5 51.6 50.9 47.9 51.2 51.2 50.3 52.6 54.7 52.4 52.1 51.0 51.6 51.2 53.1 52.3 51.7 52.2 53.1 54.0 53.2 53.9 54.3 52.6 51.8 52.7 52.1 52.5 51.4 51.4 4th Quarter 2019 Market Outlook, Page 8 Source: Bloomberg, Markit.
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