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The Digital Acceleration

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The Digital Acceleration 4 - The Digital Acceleration 4 The Digital Acceleration Florida Spain 41 - THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 4 - The Digital Acceleration The COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated 4.2. billion people who will spend a total of 3.7 trillion the digitalization of the transatlantic and global hours on social media in 2021 – equivalent to more economies, even as it has upended the world’s way than 420 million years of combined human existence.5 of living, working and playing. Some industries have been devasted while others have grown more resilient The digital economy is not just connecting billions by fast-tracking their digital transformation. Many of people to each other, it is connecting them to digital pioneers experienced a gold rush as online billions of things, and it is connecting those billions spending surged and virtual conferencing, learning of things to each other as well.6 Cisco estimates that and gaming all skyrocketed. Analysts estimate the 500 billion devices will be connected to the Internet crisis has sped up the adoption of a wide range of by 2030.7 This has prompted former Cisco Chairman digital technologies by at least two years.1 John Chambers to predict that the globe is already moving beyond the Internet of Things (IoT) to what Digital tools powered an unprecedented worldwide he calls “the Internet of Everything: the penetration sharing of gene sequencing data to track and treat of the World Wide Web into the everyday aspects of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the COVID-19 our lives.”8 disease. The first breakthrough vaccine was a triumph of transatlantic collaboration between Germany’s For the transatlantic economy a number of digital BioNTech and U.S.-based Pfizer. The speed at transformations bear watching. which the vaccine was developed was an amazing feat of science that was reliant on barrier-breaking First, as companies and countries in North America synergies between digital and medical advances, and Europe have become more digitized and and not possible for any previous pandemic.2 connected, they have also become more vulnerable to cyberattack and disruption. Cyberattacks spiked When the pandemic subsides, more government during COVID-19, including surreptitious efforts services will be online and more people will work to gain data from scientific and medical research and learn more flexibly. Digital shopping, virtual organizations, the World Health Organization, the fitness, and online courses are all likely to become European Medicines Agency, along with companies, regular fixtures of societies across the Atlantic contact-tracing applications, and hospitals in North and beyond. Digital companies will grow into new America, Europe and around the world.9 Data theft, areas of business and play an even larger role in our cyber-espionage, supply-chain attacks, ransomware lives than they do now. Between 2020 and 2023 efforts and spear-phishing scams all rose sharply companies are expected to spend $6.8 trillion on over the past year. This growing threat landscape has digital transformation. By the end of 2021, 60% of added additional burdens to organizations grappling global GDP will be digitized.3 with business continuity, travel lockdowns, remote working, and generally struggling to stay afloat. It The numbers continue to astound. This year, humans is fueling a cybersecurity market that is expected to will generate 74 zettabytes of data – 840 million times grow to nearly $250 billion by 2023.10 the Internet’s size in 1997.4 More than 5.22 billion people now use mobile phones. 4.66 billion are now Second, the pandemic has spurred the further online. We now spend almost as much time online as digitalization and internationalization of small- and we do asleep. Nearly half a billion people began to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). While in general use social media in 2020, taking the global total to SMEs tend to lag behind larger firms in terms of digital The crisis has sped 60% the adoption of a wide range of of global GDP will be digital technologies digitized by the end by at least two of 2021 years 42 - THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 4 - The Digital Acceleration Digital transformations impacting the transatlantic economy Rise of Growth of online payments cyberattacks and shopping Digitization and Advent of the connected internationalization of SMEs factory adoption, many SMEs turned to online platforms Germany and other advanced manufacturing during COVID-19 to gain efficiencies and access to countries are likely to fare much better when it new markets, sourcing channels and a multitude comes to another new frontier: the advent of the of digital networks offering e-commerce sales, connected factory. It is estimated that smart factories teleworking capabilities and more. Digital platforms will have delivered over $500 billion in value, and have been a lifeline to restaurant owners who saw their increased overall manufacturing productivity by non-delivery sales vanish during lockdowns. Market a factor of seven, over the past five years. Their estimates suggest that the food delivery industry is potential is enhanced by 3D technologies such as set to double its 2018 value of $85 billion by 2025. 3D printing, 3D visualization and 3D configuration. Moreover, the OECD reports that digitalization is “the These digital innovations are changing how products key strategic means” for SMEs to reach international are designed, manufactured, used and serviced. markets by lowering trade costs and easing access Mass production is shifting to mass customization. across borders. There is substantial opportunity Product-based manufacturing models are through further internationalization. According to increasingly complemented by product-as-a-service Eurostat, less than half of small businesses with models. Extended trade-in-task supply chains are e-commerce sales sell in other EU countries and an evolving into smarter, connected and more resilient even lower share sell outside of the EU. A similar trend systems. Lower-cost countries, such as China, are no can be observed for medium-sized firms selling via longer the automatic first choice for manufacturing e-commerce: half sell in other EU countries and less facilities, as producers build capacities closer to than a third sell outside of the EU.11 their customers and seek to avoid bottlenecks and chokepoints.14 Third, the pandemic accelerated an ongoing transformation in the way people spend and move Entering the Bio-Cognitive Age their money. More than 40% of the world’s adult population uses the Internet to pay bills or shop Even as we grapple with the advances and challenges online.12 FinTech, a combination of technology and of the “Digital Age,” some pathfinders are already financial services, holds promise for deploying funds charting new revolutionary advances in quantum more nimbly to places and people in need. The physics, biology, nanotechnology, behavioral and consumer-oriented FinTech market alone is expected cognitive sciences and artificial intelligence (AI).15 to reach $11.2 trillion in transaction value by 2024. In previous surveys we used Table 1 to herald the Digital payments account for the largest segment of possibilities. Now we are able to give this chart that market, with a transaction value of $4.9 trillion in greater detail, as this new age has already arrived, 2020 that is expected to reach $8.4 trillion by 2024. due to scientific breakthroughs and to the cascading China and the United States lead this market, with changes wrought by the pandemic. New industries Europe struggling. For instance, while cash is still are appearing, led by pioneering companies on both king in Germany, mobile payments in China (such sides of the Atlantic. as Alipay and WeChat Pay) have already all but replaced cash.13 43 - THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 4 - The Digital Acceleration Table 1 The Expanding Digital Frontier TECHNOLOGIES BIO-COGNITIVE AGE: bio-informatics, synthetic NOVEL MATERIALS HEALTHCARE BIO- Impact: biology, “omics,” (e.g. Tandem (e.g. BioNTech, MANUFACTURING PRECISION from economic telemedicine, cognitive Repeat, Zymergen, Amyris, Imagene (e.g. Kraig Biocraft, INDUSTRIES to biological commerce, augmented Altrika Box, Velo Labs, Babylon, Bolt Threads, (e.g. Trace and cognitive reality, remote intelligence, 3D, Novamont) Atomwise, Hello Inspidere, AmSilk, Genomics, Inori, transformation telerobotics Better, Benevolent Seevix) Flow Health, AI) Codexis) DIGITIZATION AGE: smart devices and GOODS SERVICES PROPERTY sensors, IOT, big (e.g. Kijiji, (e.g. Deliveroo, (e.g. AirBnB, data, AI, 5G, platform Gumtree) TaskRabbit) Buzzmove) economy GENE-EDITING Impact: (e.g. Caribou Biosciences, from limited business CRISPR Therapeutics, and personal impact Pairwise, Editas Medicine) to transformation of all economic sectors SMARTPHONE AGE: smartphones, APIs, social media, apps Impact: TRANSPORTATION BIOLOGICAL digital advertising and (e.g. Uber, PLATFORMS marketing, multiple devices autonomous (e.g. Ginkgo Bioworks, per person, individuals as vehicles, BlaBlaCar) Ferment Consortium, content creators Mammoth Biosciences) INFORMATION AGE: mobile phones, laptops, 2G/3G, GPS, WiFi Impact: remote work, FINANCIAL BIOPRINTING connected anytime SERVICES (e.g. Cellbricks, and everywhere (e.g. Kickstarter, Labnatek, Cellenion, TransferWise) Foldlink, Nanofiber Solutions) PC AGE: Impact: Desktop and personal e-commerce, OTHERS ENERGY computing, PC software, e-mail, chat, healthcare, (e.g. Tesla, Solazyme, Internet technologies efficiency, education, energy, Novozymes,
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