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University of Florida Thesis Or Dissertation Formatting ASSESSING CONSERVATION PRIORITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN LOS SANTOS, PANAMA: A METHODOLOGY FOR SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT, SOCIOECOLOGICAL FOREST CONSERVATION PLANNING By MICHAEL L. BAUMAN A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2015 © 2015 Michael L. Bauman To Larry A. Wilson, Anthony Martin, and Stephanie A. Bohlman ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Acknowledgements go to my graduate committee, Claudia, Stephen, and especially to Stephanie, for helping me get to the end. Acknowledgements also go to the Azuero Earth Project, the Farmer’s and Rancher’s association of Los Asientos. Special thanks to the community of Los Asientos for sharing their time and knowledge and to Marie and Yeya for opening their homes. Similarly, thanks go to former Peace Corps Volunteers Katie and Bracken Kilpatrick and Katie Van der Bilt, who introduced me to their communities. A special thanks to Nuevo Ocu, who helped me get a tow truck for my field vehicle. For funding and support of the project, acknowledgements also go to the Tropical Conservation and Development program, the School of Natural Resources and Environment. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 8 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... 9 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... 10 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 13 2 IDENTIFYING MULTIPLE FOREST TRANSITION PATHWAYS IN FOREST REGROWTH OF LOS SANTOS, PANAMA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT ..................................................... 17 2.1 Background ................................................................................................... 17 2.2 Study Area .................................................................................................... 19 2.3 Methods ........................................................................................................ 20 2.3.1 Preliminary Assessment of Regrowth ................................................. 21 2.3.2 Spatial Unit for Analysis ...................................................................... 22 2.3.3 Regrowth Magnitude ........................................................................... 22 2.3.4 Preparation of Variables ...................................................................... 23 2.3.5 Methods of Analysis ............................................................................ 25 2.4 Results .......................................................................................................... 27 2.5 Discussion ..................................................................................................... 29 2.5.1 Correlations with Mean Slope ............................................................. 29 2.5.2 Forest Transition Regions ................................................................... 29 2.5.2.1 Forest transition in the High Slope region .................................... 29 2.5.2.2 Forest transition in the Low Slope Southern region ..................... 31 2.5.2.3 Forest transition in the Low Slope Northern region ...................... 32 2.5.3 Data Limitations and Uncertainty ........................................................ 34 2.5.3.1 Limitations and errors from census data ...................................... 34 2.5.3.2 Effects of sampling scale ............................................................. 35 2.5.4 Applications into Conservation Planning ................................................. 35 2.6 Summary ....................................................................................................... 36 3 IDENTIFICATION OF CONSERVATION PRIORITY AREAS AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONSERVATION OPPORTUNITIES IN LOS SANTOS, PANAMA ................................................................................................................. 46 3.1 Background ................................................................................................... 46 5 3.2 Methods ........................................................................................................ 49 3.2.1 Overview of Modeling Conservation Area Networks ........................... 49 3.2.2 Conservation Features ........................................................................ 51 3.2.2.1 Birds and amphibians .................................................................. 51 3.2.2.2 Primates ...................................................................................... 53 3.2.2.3 Forest habitats ............................................................................. 54 3.2.2.4 Ecoregions ................................................................................... 54 3.2.3 Model Cost Surfaces ........................................................................... 55 3.2.3.1 Measures of organizational support ............................................. 55 3.2.3.2 Joint area and organizational support cost surface ...................... 58 3.2.4 Preparation of Model Inputs ................................................................ 59 3.2.5 Model Assessment and Comparison................................................... 59 3.3 Results .......................................................................................................... 61 3.3.1 Model Comparisons ............................................................................ 61 3.3.2 Sensitivity to Individual Conservation Feature Groups ........................ 62 3.3.3 Differences among Individual Conservation Feature Groups .............. 63 3.3.4 Assessing Effectiveness of Protected Areas and Organizational Support ................................................................................................ 64 3.4 Discussion ..................................................................................................... 65 3.4.1 Analysis of Organizational Support and Conservation Features ......... 65 3.4.1.1 Organization support in systematic conservation planning .......... 65 3.4.1.2 Comparison of conservation features .......................................... 66 3.4.1.3 Comparison of organizational support and conservation features ........................................................................................ 67 3.4.1.4 Assessment of methodology for including organizational support ......................................................................................... 68 3.4.2 Caveats ............................................................................................... 69 3.4.2.1 Evaluation of conservation features ............................................. 69 3.4.2.2 Evaluating planning unit size ....................................................... 70 3.4.3 Implications for Conservation on the Azuero ....................................... 70 3.4.3.1 Areas with high conservation value and high organizational support ......................................................................................... 70 3.4.3.2 Areas with high conservation value and low organizational support ......................................................................................... 71 3.4.3.3 Areas with high organizational support and low conservation values .......................................................................................... 72 3.5 Summary ....................................................................................................... 73 4 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................ 84 APPENDIX A LANDOWNER INTERVIEW FORM IN ENGLISH ................................................... 85 B LANDOWNER INTERVIEW FORM IN SPANISH ................................................... 89 C CONSERVATION FEATURE TARGETS ................................................................ 93 6 D ORGANIZATION SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEWS IN ENGLISH .................... 99 E ORGANIZATION SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEWS IN SPANISH .................. 102 F SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL ON THE CALCULATION OF JOINT COST (AREA AND ORGANIZATONAL SUPPORT) ....................................................... 105 LIST OF REFERENCES ............................................................................................. 108 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .......................................................................................... 119 7 LIST OF TABLES Table page 2-1 Non-government programs identified in 2012 that facilitate increased forest cover in the province. ......................................................................................... 37 2-2 Classification of regrowth from Hansen et al. (2013) forest cover data. ............. 38 2-3 Biophysical and socioeconomic variables used to model regrowth. ................... 39 2-4 Conditional Aikaike Information Criterion (AICc) scores for single-variable geographically-weighted regression (GWR) models
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