From “Finca” to Forest: Forest Cover Change and Land Management in Los Santos, Panama
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From “Finca” to Forest: Forest Cover Change and Land Management in Los Santos, Panama Ruth Ngolela Byrnes Metzel Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Stephen Pacala, Ph.D April 26, 2010 This thesis represents my own work in accordance with University regulations. ____________________ Ruth Metzel 1 Dedico esta tesis a mi hermanita Sarah, y a mis hermanas Santeñas This thesis is dedicated to my little sister Ana Cristina, Ana Carolina, Sarah, Anaís y Thaysth con la and to my Santeña sisters Ana Cristina, Ana esperanza que juntas dejarémos Carolina, Anaís, and Thaysth este mundo un mejor lugar que in hopes that together we will leave this world el que encontramos. a better place than we found it. Artista/artist: Anaís García 2 Agradecimientos/Acknowledgements Boca arriba miro el hondo Face up I stare into the deep Cielo en su dimensión, Sky in all its dimensions Busco el fín de la cuestión I seek the end of the question Pero nunca llego al fondo. But never reach the bottom, Me pregunto y no respondo I ask myself and find no answer Semejante magnitud, Of a similar magnitude Lo grande, la infinitud The immensity, the infinity De la sombra constelada Of the constellated shadow Y así no comprendo nada And thus, I understand nothing Y me asombra esa quietud. And am amazed by that stillness. ~ Décima Panameña, Changmarín ~ Panamanian Décima, Changmarín Many people helped me in the attempt to understand the dimensions of this “constellated shadow,”1 and I am immensely grateful to them all. Many thanks to my adviser, Stephen Pacala, and to Stephanie Bohlmann, Anping Chen, and Jeremy Lichstein. I owe an incredible debt of gratitude to three extremely dedicated university students who helped me with the Santeño survey: Anayansi Vera, Javier Alexander Pérez, and Yanaira Barria – without your help, this thesis would not exist, and I would be eternally lost somewhere in the Azuero. To all the Santeño survey participants: you taught me more than these pages can ever contain – thank you. My thanks to Tsering Wangyal Shawa and William Guthe, Princeton’s GIS gurus, for their gracious responses to my many frantic questions. I also appreciate the contributions made to this work by Edwina Von Gal, Vernon Scholey, Omar Lopez, Ryan Chisholm, José Deago, Adrian de Froment, Angel García, Eva Garen, and by MIDA and ANAM technicians in Macaracas, Pedasí, and Las Tablas. Much love and gratitude to my parents, grandparents and friends, and twasakidila n’Zambi for blessing me with this unforgettable opportunity. Muchas personas me ayudaron mientras intentaba entender las dimensiones de este “hondo cielo” y estoy inmensamente agradecida a todos. Muchas gracias a mi profesor Stephen Pacala, y a Stephanie Bohlmann, Anping Chen y Jeremy Lichstein. Debo muchísima gratitud a tres estudiantes universitarios extremadamente dedicados y creativos: Anayansi Vera, Javier Alexander Pérez, y Yanaira Barria – sin sus ayudas, esta tesis no existiría y yo estaría perdida eternalmente en algún rincón del Azuero. A todos los participantes de la encuesta: me enseñaron mucho mas que estas páginas jamás podrían contener – gracias. Gracias a Tsering Wangyal Shawa y William Guthe, los gurús de GIS en Princeton, por contestar mis preguntas frenéticas. También agradezco las contribuciones a mi trabajo hechas por Edwina Von Gal, Vernon Scholey, Omar Lopez, Ryan Chisholm, José Deago, Adrian de Froment, Angel García, Eva Garen, y los técnicos de las oficinas de MIDA y ANAM en Macaracas, Pedasí, y Las Tablas. Mucho amor y gratitud a mis padres, mis abuelos y mis amigos, y twasakidila n’Zambi por esta bendita oportunidad inolvidable. This research would not have been possible without the generous support of the John T. Bonner Senior Thesis Fund, the Dean’s Fund, Princeton Environmental Institute, and the Round Table Senior Thesis Fund. Because this thesis grew out of research I conducted for my junior paper, cited sections of my thesis introduction are modified from my junior paper and from a CEE334 paper on Panama. 1 Changmarín, translation by the author 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS AGRADECIMIENTOS/ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................3 REFERENCE MAP OF LOS SANTOS, PANAMA...................................................................................5 RESUMEN/ABSTRACT:..............................................................................................................................6 CHAPTER I: DEVELOPMENT, POPULATION DENSITY, AND THE FOREST TRANSITION ...7 THE SANTEÑO STORY.................................................................................................................................14 FOREST COVER AND CONSERVATION VALUES IN LOS SANTOS: WHY DO WE CARE?.................................18 CHAPTER II: DETECTING FOREST COVER THROUGH SATELLITE IMAGE ANALYSIS....20 METHODS ...................................................................................................................................................20 Field Data Collection ........................................................................................................................................20 Classifying Current (2009) Forest Cover..........................................................................................................22 Classifying Past (1990 and 2001) Forest Cover................................................................................................24 Creating a Land Cover Change Map.................................................................................................................26 RESULTS.....................................................................................................................................................26 DISCUSSION................................................................................................................................................30 Comparison of Results with Past Forest Cover Classifications ........................................................................30 Forest Cover Trends in Los Santos ...................................................................................................................32 The Los Santos Forest Transition......................................................................................................................35 A Preliminary Analysis .....................................................................................................................................35 CHAPTER III: FACTORS BEHIND SMALL-SCALE FOREST COVER CHANGE........................37 METHODS ...................................................................................................................................................37 Survey Development.........................................................................................................................................37 Logistic Regression Analysis of Survey Data...................................................................................................40 Categorization of reasons for planting forest ....................................................................................................42 RESULTS.....................................................................................................................................................43 Characteristics Affecting the Decision to Maintain Forest ...............................................................................43 Characteristics Associated with the Fraction of Land Forested........................................................................46 Stated Reasons for Leaving Forest on Land......................................................................................................47 DISCUSSION................................................................................................................................................48 Land and Labor Relationships with Forest Cover.............................................................................................48 Educational Effects? An Area for Further Research.........................................................................................50 Water and Cattle: Stated Reasons for Reforestation .........................................................................................52 CHAPTER IV: THINKING BEYOND THE FOREST ...........................................................................54 METHODS ...................................................................................................................................................54 RESULTS.....................................................................................................................................................58 Trees Left on Land ............................................................................................................................................58 Trees Planted on Land.......................................................................................................................................59 Live Fence Species and Management ...............................................................................................................60 DISCUSSION................................................................................................................................................61 CHAPTER V: BLURRING THE LINE BETWEEN “FINCA” AND FOREST...................................65 THE RACE TOWARD EXOTIC TIMBER: