Investment locations Germany 2020 Office – rents and yields The German office property markets have not yet been affected by the effects of the pandemic in terms of value. Three factors are decisive in this respect: the good economic development that continued until mid-February, the relatively low supply of new construction in the metropolitan regions or CBDs and the delaying effects of a recession on the floor-space markets. At present, we therefore do not see any significant change in our rental and yield forecast up to September, although economic development will leave its mark at the beginning of the third quarter.
Kiel
16.00 5.5 Rostock
12.50 Lübeck 6.4
12.50 6.3 Schwerin Wilhelmshaven Hamburg 9.50 9.00 7.5 6.4 29.00 2.9
Bremen
14.50 4.5
39.50 2.6
17.00 Berlin 4.5 Potsdam 13.00 Hanover 6.0 Osnabrück Salzgitter Braunschweig 15.50 12.50 5.7 6.0 Magdeburg 15.50 16.00 4.5 8.00 5.9 Münster Bielefeld 6.2 12.50 6.7 15.50 4.2 Gütersloh Cottbus 9.00 Paderborn 6.2 9.00 10.50 14.50 6.5 10.00 6.5 Krefeld 5.1 6.7 14.50 Hamm 5.4 12.50 Bochum Dortmund 15.50 Halle/Saale 6.5 Duisburg 5.0 12.00 Essen 5.8 Hagen 10.50 10.00 Leipzig Krefeld Ratingen 6.5 Dusseldorf 6.8 Kassel Mönchen- Wuppertal 15.50 gladbach Solingen 4.5 28.50 14.50 Dresden Dusseldorf 9.50 13.00 3.0 5.3 6.1 Neuss Leverkusen 7.5 Weimar Erfurt 15.00 Cologne Jena 4.9 Ratingen 12.50 Siegen Gera Marburg Chemnitz 26.00 4.8 11.50 8.50 15.00 Aachen 11.50 5.0 7.1 12.50 3.1 7.50 5.5 Bonn 7.2 11.50 6.2 10.50 16.00 7.0 7.0 7.0 4.8 Neuss 23.50 4.3 13.50 3.7 Koblenz 45.00 2.8 15.50 14.50 12.50 9.00 4.2 Frankfurt/M. 6.0 6.0 6.4 11.50 Prime rents and prime gross yields: Wiesbaden Offenbach/M. 5.2 Schweinfurt Mainz Aschaffenburg Darmstadt Bamberg 15.50 11.50 14.99 Prime rent in €/sq m 4.8 14.00 6.0 Würzburg Trier 14.50 4.8 5.8 5.4 Prime gross yield in % 16.80 12.50 10.50 12.00 5.0 6.1 Erlangen 6.6 6.2 Fürth Mannheim Kaiserslautern Nuremberg Ludwigshafen Heidelberg 12.00 6-month trend: rising 6.0 16.50 11.50 12.50 3.9 Saarbrücken 16.50 stable 6.4 6.0 4.9 Heilbronn Regensburg falling 13.50 Karlsruhe 5.4 14.50 13.50 14.50 5.2 5.0 Prime rent: 5.2 Stuttgart Ingolstadt Definition according to gif e.V.: The top rent 24.50 3.0 15.00 represents the median of the uppermost 4.9 price segment, with a market share of Ulm Augsburg 3 % of the total letting take-up (excluding 15.80 5.0 owner-occupiers), during the last 12 months. Munich
40.50 Freiburg 2.6 Prime gross yield: 15.50 The prime gross initial yield is the simple 16.50 6.0 4.8 comparison of the contractual rent with the Konstanz acquisition price excluding purchaser‘s costs. The prime gross initial yield corresponds to the multiplier normally used in the market. 2020 Ø prime rent ∆ 2019/2020 Ø prime gross yield ∆ 2019/2020
A-location 33.29€/m2 7.25% 2.88% -18Bp 2 4.66% B-location 16.02€/m 3.09% -40Bp As of 1st quarter 2020 C-location 14.10€/m2 5.62% 5.58% -31Bp Contact: [email protected] D-location 11.35€/m2 8.30% 6.20% -50Bp Source: Catella Research 2020 * bp = basis point Yield/risk profile for office markets in 2020
Prime gross yield in % Prime gross yield in %
9.0%
8.0% Section overview: B-, C-, D-locations 8.0% 7.0%
6.0% Wilhelmshaven – Solingen – 5.0% – Siegen 4.0% 7.0% Weimar – Marburg – Gera – Chemnitz – Stuttgart Cologne Hamburg Kaiserslautern 3.0% Berlin – Hagen Paderborn – – Magdeburg Dusseldorf Frankfurt (Main) Gütersloh 2.0% Munich Krefeld – – Halle – Cottbus 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Saarbrücken – – Schweinfurt – Schwerin Lübeck – Hamm Rostock Risk factor Salzgitter – – Trier Jena 6.0% Wuppertal – – Würzburg Bielefeld – – Osnabrück – Fürth – Offenbach | Braunschweig – Koblenz Aschaffenburg Ludwigshafen – Kassel | – Potsdam Erlangen Office markets have been classified according to their size (existing stock). Kiel – – Ratingen Duisburg – – Heilbronn Bamberg – Mönchengladbach Karlsruhe – Category A = > 5 million sq m – Ingolstadt Bochum – B = � 2 million to 5 million sq m 5.0% Regensburg C = Dortmund – Ulm – – Erfurt < 2 million sq m (further differentiation for Mannheim – Augsburg D = } Leverkusen – – Aachen C & D in terms of regional significance) Darmstadt Dresden Mainz Freiburg Hanover – Bremen – – Heidelberg | | Bonn– Münster Leipzig Essen – – Wiesbaden 4.0% – Nuremberg
– Neuss
Methodology: Catella Research 2020 risk model is based on the volatility of office Risk factor 50 60 70 80 90 yields and the ratio of the respective office space stock to the total stock, including the vacancy rates of all locations. Schematic representation based on a fully let As of 1st quarter 2020 property in the category core or new construction in a prime location. Source: Catella Research 2020