Scottish Executive Scottish Planning Assessment Part 2 Report

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Scottish Executive Scottish Planning Assessment Part 2 Report

August 2006

This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility Ove Arup & Partners Ltd is undertaken to any third party Scotstoun House, South Queensferry, West Lothian EH30 9SE

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Contents Page 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 The Purpose of the Planning Assessment 2 1.3 The Planning Assessment Process and Purpose of this Report 3 1.4 Structure of the Part 2 Report 4 2 Analytical Approach to Part 2 of the SPA 6 2.1 Purpose of Chapter 6 2.2 Identification of Objectives 6 2.3 Identification of Issues 6 2.4 Generation of Long List of Interventions 7 2.5 Completion of Interventions Shortlisting 8 2.6 Assessment of Interventions 9 2.7 Packaging Interventions into Scenario A and Scenario B 9 2.8 Prioritisation 11 2.9 Inter-dependencies 11 2.10 Status of the Recommendations 11 3 Key Objectives for Rail in Scotland 12 3.1 Purpose of Chapter 12 3.2 Recent Rail Improvements Delivered in Scotland 12 3.3 Recent Policy Changes 13 3.4 Conclusions from Baselining and Drivers of Change 14 3.5 Rationale for an Objectives-Led Approach 19 3.6 Defining Objectives 19 3.7 Relevant Policy and Guidance 19 3.8 Regional Objectives 20 3.9 Objectives at Sub-Regional and Local Level 21 3.10 Identifying the Key Objectives for Rail 21 3.11 Tensions Between Specific Objectives 26 3.12 Implications of the Objectives for Rail’s Optimal Future Role and Focus 26 4 Generic Interventions 30 4.1 Background 30 4.2 Discussion of Key Cross-Route Generic Objectives 30 4.3 Main Issues 30 4.4 Long List of Generic Interventions 33 4.5 Generic Interventions Not Taken Forward After Shortlisting or STAG Part 1 Appraisal 36 4.6 Selected Generic Interventions 36

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4.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening 36 5 – Routes 38 5.1 Geographic interventions 38 5.2 Background 38 5.3 Key Objectives Supported 38 5.4 Main Issues 39 5.5 Long List of Interventions 44 5.6 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment 44 5.7 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions 45 5.8 The Consequences of Not Intervening 49 6 Other Inter Urban Routes 50 6.1 Background 50 6.2 Key Objectives Supported 50 6.3 Main Issues 50 6.4 Long List of Interventions 57 6.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment 58 6.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions 59 6.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening 61 7 Edinburgh Suburban Network 63 7.1 Background 63 7.2 Key Objectives Supported 63 7.3 Main Issues 63 7.4 Long List of Interventions 71 7.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment 71 7.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions 72 7.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening 74 8 Glasgow South West Routes 76 8.1 Background 76 8.2 Key Objectives Supported 76 8.3 Main Issues 77 8.4 Long List of Interventions 82 8.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment 82 8.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions 85 8.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening 89 9 Glasgow North Routes 89 9.1 Background 89 C:\DOCUMENTS AND SETTINGS\PC\MY DOCUMENTS\RECEIVED FILES\PART 2 Ove Arup & Partners Scotland Ltd REPORT.DOC Issue 1 August 2006

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9.2 Key Objectives Supported 89 9.3 Main Issues 89 9.4 Long List of Interventions 95 9.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment 95 9.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions 96 9.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening 96 10 Glasgow South East Routes 99 10.1 Background 99 10.2 Key Objectives Supported 99 10.3 Main Issues 99 10.4 Long List of Interventions 104 10.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment 104 10.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions 105 10.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening 106 11 Rural Routes - North 108 11.1 Background 108 11.2 Key Objectives Supported 108 11.3 Main Issues 108 11.4 Long List of Interventions 113 11.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Phase 1 Assessment 113 11.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions 114 11.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening 114 12 Rural Routes - South 117 12.1 Background 117 12.2 Key Objectives Supported 117 12.3 Main Issues 117 12.4 Long List of Interventions 121 12.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Phase 1 Assessment 121 12.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions 121 12.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening 123 13 Anglo-Scottish Routes 125 13.1 Background 125 13.2 Key Objectives Supported 125 13.3 Main Issues 125 13.4 Long List of Interventions 131

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13.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Phase 1 Assessment 131 13.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions 132 13.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening 134 14 Conclusions and Next Steps 136 14.1 The Strategic Implications of Policy 136 14.2 Pressing Issues and Interventions 136 14.3 Longer Term Emerging Issues and Interventions 137 14.4 Recognition of Longer Term Emerging Issues Within the Rail Strategy for Scotland 138

Appendices Appendix A Scheme Shortlisting Appendix B Appraisal Summary Tables

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1 Introduction

1.1 Background

Arup was appointed in April 2005 to provide the Scottish Executive (SE) and the Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) with a Scottish Planning Assessment. It was intended that the assessment would follow the Regional Planning Assessment process that has already been applied to examine options for the medium to longer term development of the railway in various English Regions. The contract for and management of the assignment was transferred from the SRA to the SE on 22 August 2005, as part of the restructuring of Britain’s rail industry and devolution of powers for the planning and delivery of Scotland’s railways to Scottish Ministers. Figure 1.1 shows Scotland’s major settlements and transport infrastructure.

Figure 1.1: Scotland, its Significant Settlements and Transport Network

Source: Arup

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The Scottish Planning Assessment (SPA) covers the whole of Scotland as well as examining the flows of freight and passenger transport by rail across the border with England via the (WCML), the (ECML) and the Glasgow South Western (GSW) route. This study area definition will allow the potentially competing demands of suburban passenger, longer distance passenger, freight and cross- border services to be considered explicitly. The SPA will provide the basis for the development of the railway in Scotland over the medium to longer term (up to 2026). It will assess the role of the railway in the context of forecast future patterns of demand for transport (taking account of planned changes in land use, economic development, and the wider transport network) and thus inform the priorities for SE intervention. The extent of intervention will be dependent, of course, on the availability of funding. It is also intended that the SPA will propose a vision for the role of rail in Scotland and identify its important contribution to the development of Scotland’s economy, society, communities, environment and wider transport network. The SPA will provide a critical input into ongoing SE work on the development of a Rail Strategy for Scotland and the National Transport Strategy. Furthermore, it is being developed in parallel with ’s Scottish Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS), which will identify options for the development of the railway in Scotland in the shorter term (0 – 10 years). The various strands of railway strategy work are being co-ordinated through the Scottish Rail Strategy Steering Group.

1.2 The Purpose of the Planning Assessment

The railway planning process is evolving in line with the restructuring of the rail industry after the Railways Act 2005. It has at its heart the specification and costing of a High Level Output Statement (HLOS) to be delivered by Network Rail. The HLOS will specify the totality of the outputs that the public sector wishes to buy. Scottish Ministers will prepare the HLOS for Scotland and it will set out the outputs that they wish to buy from Network Rail. The Office of Rail Regulation will cost these outputs. The SPA, and the subsequent Scottish Rail and National Transport Strategies, will provide essential information to inform the development of the HLOS for Scotland. The Planning Assessment was developed as a key component of the SRA’s planning framework. The framework was first published in the SRA’s 2003 “Network Utilisation Strategy”, which aimed to align rail planning with national and regional priorities and objectives to avoid rail becoming too focused on its own internal industry objectives. The Planning Assessment had a key role in providing this link in conjunction with stakeholder collaboration. Within the planning framework, the SRA had to ensure that its strategies were consistent with the relevant spatial strategies, and that it worked closely with local and regional planning bodies. Each Planning Assessment was intended to achieve this by ensuring its medium to longer term plan for the railway reflected, where appropriate, the policies and priorities in relevant spatial and economic strategies. In the new railway planning process this role will remain with the Planning Assessment. It can be anticipated that the Planning Assessment will identify priorities for rail based on wider national and regional priorities so providing the link with national strategy and the specification of the HLOS. In parallel, the Planning Assessment will inform the planning stages below it by providing a framework for the completion of relevant Network Rail RUSs (which aim to make best use of the existing network in the short to medium term of up to 10 years), infrastructure development, provision of freight capacity and future franchise specification/management.

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This should ensure that the railway’s shorter term plans are consistent with relevant spatial and economic strategies as well as other regional and local plans. The Planning Assessment also provides a framework for future input to spatial and economic strategies. Thus, the Planning Assessment will continue to play an essential role in railway planning.

1.3 The Planning Assessment Process and Purpose of this Report

Figure 1.2 illustrates the Planning Assessment process and shows that this report, the Part 2 Report, presents the conclusions and outputs of our work.

Figure 1.2: The Planning Assessment Process

PART 2 REPORT

Source – SRA: The Railway Planning Framework: Regional Planning Assessments, October 2003 Note: MMS refers to Multi-Modal Studies.

Our Part 1 Report1 covered the first two stages in the Planning Assessment process for Scotland: • For the Baselining stage, we assessed the present role of the railway in Scotland’s transport system, identified current travel patterns in the country (especially rail) and the present capacity and capability of the Scottish rail network. We drew conclusions on the present role and strengths and weaknesses of the railway in Scotland today.

1 Scotland Planning Assessment Part 1 Report Volumes 1 (Baselining) and 2 (Drivers of Change). October 2005. Arup for the Scottish Executive and Strategic Rail Authority.

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• During the Drivers of Change stage, we identified the future changes in Scotland that will affect travel. Typically, change will occur due to underlying growth, planned changes in land use and economic development patterns (to take account of the National Planning Framework and the complementary Framework for Economic Development in Scotland), new transport infrastructure development (including the Scottish Minister’s committed rail projects, as well as planned airport and port development) and increasing highway congestion. Critically, we assessed the impact of these Drivers for Change on rail demand and travel patterns over the period to 2026. This assessment was brought together with parallel analysis of the supply side, especially the capability and capacity of the railway network, to identify the issues that the Drivers for Change will create for the transport system in Scotland in the future and the railway in particular. We examined the capacity and adequacy of the rail network to support planned changes and used this analysis to draw some initial conclusions on the future optimal role and focus for the railway in Scotland. This report builds on the Part 1 Report’s conclusions and covers the remaining stages of the Planning Assessment process shown in Figure 1.2 above: • During the Issues and Objectives stage, we identified the key objectives set out for rail in Scotland, as well as the main issues on the railway network that could affect their delivery. These issues were drawn from the Drivers of Change analysis; • During Option Generation, we identified, grouped and shortlisted a set of interventions that would address these issues and, by implication, support the delivery of the identified key objectives; and • During Assessment, we assessed the shortlisted set of interventions (using an Appraisal Summary Table based on Part 1 of the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance [STAG]) and prioritised and packaged them into the two funding scenarios (defined in Chapter 3). This report presents our final Conclusions and Outputs from this work. It provides a set of prioritised interventions in both funding scenarios with a clear objective-led justification for their selection. The size of Scotland and the nature of its spatial, economic and railway geography means that it is easier to communicate the strategic logic of our Conclusions and Outputs by breaking down the country into logical sub-groups based on railway routes or networks. However, in the final conclusions to this report we suggest priorities for intervention across Scotland, based on the relative importance of the Drivers of Change identified in our Part 1 Report. We also recommend the next steps to be taken to develop the interventions further, such as more detailed feasibility studies, timetable analysis and simulation and development of more detailed demand forecasts and business cases.

1.4 Structure of the Part 2 Report

The remainder of this report is structured as follows: • Chapter 2 describes our analytical approach to the remaining stages of the SPA; • Chapter 3 describes and analyses the key objectives for rail in Scotland; • Chapter 4 describes our recommendations for generic interventions that could be applied to a variety of routes, rather than a spatial intervention applicable to a single route; • Chapters 5 – 13 describe our findings for each of the railway sub-groups (or networks) in Scotland covering: - the key objectives supported by the specific route;

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- the main issues on the route that could threaten the delivery of those objectives; - the long list of interventions that were selected to overcome the issues; - an explanation of why certain interventions were not taken forward; and - the packaging, prioritisation and timing of the selected interventions including other events on which they will be dependent.

• Chapter 14 summarises our conclusions (including prioritisation of routes for intervention) and recommends the next steps for taking forward the development of the interventions. The purpose of this report is to present the detailed technical analysis completed during Part 2 that underpins the overall strategic analysis. The detailed technical report will complement the strategic report, whose purpose is to identify the pressing and urgent conclusions for strategic rail priorities in Scotland.

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2 Analytical Approach to Part 2 of the SPA

2.1 Purpose of Chapter

This chapter presents the analytical approach used in the final stages of the study to complete this report. It covers the identification of the key objectives for rail in Scotland, the identification of the main resulting issues for rail and the generation and assessment of interventions to overcome these issues (and their prioritisation into different resource or funding scenarios). Our work drew heavily from the analysis and conclusions presented in the Part 1 Report.

2.2 Identification of Objectives

Key Scottish policy objectives for transport (especially rail) were identified from national policy documents including Scotland’s Transport Future: The Transport White Paper, the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG), the National Planning Framework (NPF), and The Way Forward: Framework for Economic Development in Scotland. Regional objectives were identified from the analysis of relevant transport and land-use planning documents within Scotland, especially Structure Plans, as well as discussions with the mainland Regional Transport Partnerships and other key stakeholders. The planning regime within Scotland, and the implications of the June 2005 Modernising the Planning System White Paper, are described in more detail in Section 2.3 of Chapter 2 in the Part 1 Report. Tensions between different objectives were also examined. Conclusions were drawn on the implications of the key objectives for rail’s optimal future role and focus in Scotland, taking account of what rail, as a transport mode, is good and less good at delivering given its economics.

2.3 Identification of Issues

Issues that could affect the delivery of the identified key objectives for rail were identified from earlier work during the study, as well as discussions with the SE, rail industry bodies, train operating companies, freight operating companies and other key stakeholders. Consideration was given to issues that constrain the ability of the railway to provide the necessary capacity to carry expected demand in the future (particularly in the commuting peak) and issues surrounding the adequacy of the railway network (in parallel with other modes) to fulfil its optimal future role and focus in order to support the delivery of key spatial and economic development strategies in Scotland. The identification of issues was informed by the following: • our analysis of the railway and wider transport network during Part 1; • the Planning Review during Part 1; and • outputs from forecasting undertaken during Part 1 and conclusions in the Part 1 Report; • franchise commitments to be delivered by First ScotRail. Our analysis of the rail network evaluated the capability and capacity of the railway. Items examined included the present Capacity Utilisation Index (CUI), track layouts, signalling capability, platform lengths and numbers, passenger train frequencies, freight requirements, levels of on-train crowding, route performance and known pinchpoints (informed by Network Rail’s Central Scotland Capacity Review and their Annual Business Plan). This analysis identified the present major capacity issues affecting each route and considered the implications of the Scottish Minister’s seven committed rail schemes for them.

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The Planning Review collated the key policy documents defining the strategic planning framework in Scotland over the period until 2026, as far as currently envisaged. The size of Scotland meant that we identified a number of planning sub-regions to provide structure to our analysis. Housing and employment forecasts are the key Drivers of Change, and these were collated for each sub-region to identify those locations with the highest expected growth. In the Part 1 Report, load factors were estimated for the current year for services radiating from Central Glasgow and Central Edinburgh for the peak periods. For each route, the modelled relationship between passenger volumes and capacity was compared against the observed values. Underlying travel growth, housing and employment forecasts from the Planning Review, airport growth and modal transfer from car to rail were combined to produce growth rate forecasts. Forecast load factors were produced for 2011 (to provide a new Do Minimum scenario inclusive of the Scottish Minister’s committed rail schemes), 2016 and 2026 to identify those routes with the highest growth rates and potential for overcrowding. Our analysis of the rail network was then used to identify the issues causing these difficulties. We also used the SRA’s analysis of future trends in the freight market to identify where additional capacity may be required in the future. We used the results of our Planning Review and the SRA’s analysis of the freight market to identify where current passenger and freight service levels may not be adequate to support future planning led changes. Again, our analysis of the rail network was used to identify the barriers to improving service provision.

2.4 Generation of Long List of Interventions

A long list of potential interventions was generated to address the main issues identified. Each intervention was chosen because it could potentially overcome one or more issues. Potential interventions were identified from: • optioneering analysis by the Arup team to identify potential solutions based on our experience of rail strategy and planning in Scotland and elsewhere; • discussions with Network Rail and solutions presented in their Central Scotland Capacity Review. The conclusions from this study have since been superseded by the baselining work carried out as part of the Scotland RUS, but this work was not available in time to inform the SPA; • consultation with First ScotRail; and • existing identified potential schemes and other aspirations of local authorities and regional stakeholders (collated earlier in the study and documented in Appendix B to Volume 2 [Drivers of Change] of our Part 1 Report). Guidance issued in draft by the SRA in July 2004 proposed a structure to identify interventions within Planning Assessment covering eight generic types of intervention. These were: • connectivity and market access; • journey times; • capacity – trains; • capacity – infrastructure; • usage of whole route; • usage of stations; • freight capacity providing additional paths; • freight capability (gauge).

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Using these generic intervention types, we identified a typology of interventions to assist in generating a long list covering: • better use of capacity through service planning; • changes to rolling stock; • changes to the physical network; and • interventions in other modes (or schemes not affecting railway operations).

The level of detail available to examine different interventions did vary significantly: ranging from schemes where costs and benefits had been accurately quantified to other schemes that have very limited information. If there was little or no information publicly available to appraise a particular scheme, we applied prudent estimates (including appropriate levels of optimism bias for schemes at a very early stage of development) of the likely impact, benchmarked against similar interventions. In the generation of interventions, we excluded the existing commitments discussed in the last chapter. We were also unable match the following stakeholder aspirations for potential interventions with issues that affected the delivery of the key objectives for rail. This should not necessarily be interpreted as meaning that these interventions have no potential role to play. However, we do not believe these interventions address issues that affect the key objectives set for rail, and recommend that local stakeholders appraise the business case to determine whether these ideas should be funded and implemented locally. • New railway between Eskbank and Penicuik via Bonnybrigg; • New stations at Melrose; • New station at Errol would support housing growth planned for Dundee; • Rail link to St Andrews; • Rail link from Brechin and Montrose; • Link from the ECML at Musselburgh to the Waverley Line at Brunstane; • New stations at Jordanhill West, Parkhead Forge, Millerston, Hospital, Auchenback (), Ibrox, Bogleshole, Allander, North; and • Additional Sunday services and late night / morning trains.

2.5 Completion of Interventions Shortlisting

A qualitative approach to sifting was used to develop a shortlist of interventions. Each of the interventions in the long list was assessed based on the following questions: • Does the intervention threaten delivery of specific key objectives for rail in Scotland? • Is the intervention deliverable from an operational and technical viewpoint? • Is there likely to be a robust business case (assessed from a qualitative viewpoint)? • What would be the magnitude of the intervention’s capital costs? • Is the intervention a unique solution to the issue(s) that it was selected to address? The sifting (or initial appraisal) of the long list of interventions is presented in Appendix A. The reasons why particular interventions were not shortlisted are summarised in Chapters 5 – 13. In preparing the shortlist, certain interventions were grouped to make subsequent assessment manageable and to reflect the fact that they were the same type of intervention.

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2.6 Assessment of Interventions

For other Planning Assessments, the SRA developed an approach to assessment of shortlisted interventions2 . The Appraisal Summary Table (AST) used was closely based on the Part 1 AST in the STAG. It was agreed that this AST be used for the assessment of interventions in the SPA. The AST incorporates the key appraisal criteria of: • a description including promoter, background information on its context and the source of the intervention; • indicative financial impact (critical for assignment to a funding scenario); • the planning objectives that the scheme would support; • an appraisal of implementability from technical, operational, financial and public response perspectives; and • predominantly qualitative appraisal against the five objectives for transport set by Scottish Ministers in Scotland’s Transport Future (environment, safety, economy, access / social inclusion and integration)3. An AST was completed for each shortlisted intervention to assess its value for money, deliverability and affordability: • Value for money was assessed by comparing the results of the appraisal of the intervention against the Scottish Minister’s five objectives for transport with the indicative financial impact (particularly costs to the public sector). From this we were able to draw conclusions on a scheme’s likely value for money. At this stage interventions with low value for money were not taken forward. • Deliverability was assessed using the results of the implementability appraisal. This was important for determining a realistic timescale for implementing an intervention, as well as ensuring there were not likely to be insurmountable difficulties in delivery, especially for interventions requiring significant infrastructure or rolling stock. Interventions with significant obstacles to delivery were either not taken forward or assumed to take much longer to implement; and • Affordability was assessed in order to assign interventions to either different funding scenario, as we discuss further below. The full results of the assessment of interventions can be found in the ASTs presented in Appendix B. The reasons why particular interventions were not taken forward after the assessment are summarised in Chapters 5 – 13.

2.7 Packaging Interventions into Scenario A and Scenario B

A key outcome of earlier SRA-led Planning Assessments was the identification of a framework of interventions for the future development of the railway prioritised according to their value for money and ease of delivery. The framework used took account of the funding and resource constraints surrounding the railway.

2 SRA Briefing Note. Agreeing a Fit for Purpose Regional Planning Assessment Appraisal Methodology. SRA. 2004. 2nd Draft. 3 This followed the SRA’s advice of ranking the magnitude of the impact (in terms of benefit or disbenefits) of the intervention drawing on the Appraisal Manual for Rail Schemes. Gibb Transport Consulting (for Office of Passenger Rail Franchising). 1999

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It distinguished between interventions that were affordable and should be prioritised within the current funding regime and other interventions that were not presently affordable but which should be considered should further resources become available. This approach enabled clear explanation of the impact of differing levels of resources and funding availability on the future contribution that rail could make to the delivery of wider policy objectives. Within both funding scenarios, interventions were prioritised according to the results of the assessment of interventions. It is proposed to use a similar approach for the SPA. An approach similar to the high, medium and low resource scenarios used in the Scottish Strategic Rail Study was considered but found not to fit well with the SPA process. This three scenario approach used made the presumption that there will always be a value for money major project in each part of the country. In reality, this may not always be the case and plan-led growth may require more of a focus of resources on enhancing rail routes in certain parts of Scotland. Assuming implementation of the railway projects to which Scottish Ministers have committed, two resource scenarios were defined reflecting different levels of resources or funds available to the Scottish railway industry: • Interventions were allocated to Scenario A if they have: - no requirement for annual revenue support / subsidy; - no capital costs unless the intervention appears financially viable; that is to say that the annual operating surplus would eventually fund the intervention’s capital cost over a typical appraisal or funding period; and - a confirmed (legal agreement) third party funding commitment.

The advantage of this scenario is that it makes it clear what rail could achieve if no further investment was made in major projects after 2010 and the potential contribution that rail could make to wider Scottish objectives. • Scenario B assumes a greater availability of resource and funding than in Scenario B. This could arise from higher government spending, more third party funding or lower rail industry costs. We used the results from the assessment of interventions and these definitions to allocate interventions to the appropriate resource scenario. We then used the implementability appraisal from each AST and our earlier Drivers of Change analysis to understand when interventions would be required on a route and any events on which they were dependent (such as delivery of plan-led housing development in an area). After discussions with the SE, we prioritised interventions in each resource scenario according to whether they would be required immediately, in the short – medium term (effectively the period up to 2016) or the medium – longer term (the period beyond 2016). Finally, we checked the logic flow of our intervention packages in both resources scenarios to ensure they were sequenced in a manner that ensured they were deliverable from train planning, operations and rail engineering perspectives. We took account of the typology in Section 2.4. The assumption was that the starting point would be to make better use of capacity and then move through changes to rolling stock and then the physical network to respond to growth. Due to the definition of the Scenario A, most changes to rolling stock or the physical network were found to fall into Scenario B. In parallel, we looked at schemes not affecting railway operations, such as improved station access and interchange, and for lightly used routes the potential for reducing maintenance and operating costs to complement the success of initiatives to grow demand.

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We concluded by identifying generic interventions, these themes could apply to a number of routes (Chapter 4) and route specific interventions (presented in Chapters 5 – 13). Priorities to be delivered throughout the study area are presented in Chapter 14. We also recommended the next steps required to develop the interventions from concepts to deliverable service changes or investment projects (presented in Chapter 14).

2.8 Prioritisation

Although interventions have been packaged into Scenarios A and B, for the different routes, these interventions have also been prioritised to identify the most important schemes. The magnitude of benefits generated by each scheme, and the limitations of the existing service (either in terms of overcrowding, slow journey times, low frequencies or poor service quality) were used to help define the priority list.

2.9 Inter-dependencies

The importance of inter-dependencies between schemes should not be under-estimated. For example, the implementation of a particular intervention could unlock a capacity bottleneck that would allow an alternative scheme to be introduced. The diversion of services to an alternative terminus in Glasgow could free up terminal capacity for other services, for example, diversion of trains from the High Level station to the Low Level. The proposals carefully consider the opportunities for scheme inter-dependencies, to ensure the maximum benefit from individual investments can be achieved.

2.10 Status of the Recommendations

The proposed interventions have been appraised at STAG 1 detail, although some schemes have been subject to a more detailed assessment of the likely costs, benefits and wider impacts. Although a scheme may be recommended, it should be acknowledged that further more detailed work will be required prior to implementation to demonstrate the scheme has merits and represents Value for Money.

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3 Key Objectives for Rail in Scotland

3.1 Purpose of Chapter

This chapter reviews recent railway improvements delivered in Scotland and recent wider Scottish policy changes. The key purpose of this chapter is to present a strategic analysis of the key issues and pressures that will arise on the railway and to highlight their causes. It firstly recaps the Part 1 analysis before moving onto the rationale for an objectives-led approach to the SPA before identifying relevant policy and guidance for the setting of rail objectives in Scotland. Having described the objectives, the chapter considers the implications of the inherent tensions between the different objectives. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the implications of the identified objectives on the future optimal role and focus for rail in Scotland. This provides the strategic framework for our route specific analysis presented in the following chapters.

3.2 Recent Rail Improvements Delivered in Scotland

The Scottish Strategic Rail Study (SSRS) identified that investment in rail would result in significant growth in the use of rail by expanding the capability of the existing railway and developing new markets for rail. It tested different resource scenarios to examine what might be achieved by investment. It is important to note that the schemes identified did “not, in the round, represent an ‘optimal’ investment package”. The SSRS used existing projects that were being promoted by stakeholders to examine the potential effect of investment on the demand for rail travel in the Central Belt and the North East of Scotland. Also, quality improvements that would make rail easier to use such as marketing initiatives, improvements to rolling stock and stations, and fares and ticketing initiatives were identified. The Study did not examine rail in the Highlands or the South West of Scotland. Since March 2003, when the Final SSRS Report was published, there has been a time of growth and expansion for Scotland’s passenger railway. Most areas of the country have benefited from additional passenger services, train lengthening or improvements in the quality of service offered. The on-train environment has been improved by rolling stock refurbishment and replacement, station facilities and ticket issuing facilities have been enhanced and, most importantly, train service performance has improved significantly since the start of the First ScotRail franchise. Most excitingly, the first in a series of planned line re-openings occurred in December 2005 when services were reinstated to Larkhall. This project has also improved frequencies from the south east to the north west of Glasgow through Glasgow Central Low Level and for commuters on the Milngavie branch, and towards Hamilton. It supports regeneration objectives in Lanarkshire, and has removed an important capacity constraint at Westerton. It is important not to lose sight of the fact that much has been achieved by small scale changes. First ScotRail has already delivered significant components of its committed £40m investment in Scotland’s railways. These improvements have increased the capacity of passenger services and improved on-train quality and at stations. Whilst more is to be delivered there are some key achievements in the first year of the FSR franchise, some of which were begun by the previous franchisee. Some of the improvements have been delivered in partnership with and utilising funding from Network Rail and the Scottish Executive, for example, platform extensions and the procurement of additional trains: • Improved punctuality: train delays were reduced by 20% across Scotland in the first year of the franchise with certain routes achieving greater reductions. • Increased capacity through train lengthening on a number of routes including Fife, Bathgate, Dunblane, Edinburgh to Glasgow via Shotts, Cumbernauld and . This is in addition to Edinburgh to Glasgow via Croy.

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• New journey opportunities through introduction of new services including Larkhall – Milngavie, the new Invernet rail commuter services around Inverness, a new Glasgow commuter service from Arrochar and Tarbet by extending an existing train, and more to Inverurie trains. • Acceleration of certain services such as the first service from Aberdeen to Edinburgh and a fast early morning service to Edinburgh from Dundee. • An improved on-train environment through the introduction of modern Turbostar trains on inter-urban services and certain commuter routes in the Central Belt, improvements to catering on Inverness services and refurbishment of trains on Edinburgh – North Berwick services. • Improvements to station facilities including cycle facilities at all stations and investment in ticket gates, CCTV equipment, more modern ticket vending machines and shelters. • New ticketing and fares on some routes. • Improving customer satisfaction, particularly with train service performance.

Freight conveyed by rail has also continued to grow. Rail is beginning to emerge as an alternative to the use of road on the trunk haul of the logistics chain, with major transport companies such as WH Malcolm using rail. This is a continuation of a long term trend that has seen a renaissance in the use of rail in Scotland. There have been a number of line re-openings since the 1980s (such as the highly successful Bathgate route, Newcraighall, and extension of services from Airdrie to Drumgelloch), and the ScotRail identity and brand has been firmly established. The previous National Express ScotRail franchise delivered a number of significant improvements, including increasing frequency from 2 to 4 trains per hour on Glasgow to Edinburgh services via Croy.

3.3 Recent Policy Changes

Since March 2003, a number of policy documents have been issued which have implications for the development of the rail network, and transport planning as a whole: • National Planning Framework for Scotland (2004); • Scotland's Transport Future – the Transport White Paper (June 2004); • The Way Forward: Framework for Economic Development in Scotland (June 2004); • Framework for Economic Development in Scotland (updated September 2004); • A Smart, Successful Scotland – the enterprise strategy (revised November 2004); • Scottish Executive Infrastructure Improvement Plan (2005); and • Modernising the Planning System – the planning white paper (June 2005) (formalised City Region plan proposals).

The National Planning Framework and Scottish Planning Guidance emphasises an integrated approach to transport and land-use planning as essential to delivering plan-led growth and regeneration. This is particularly important with regard to policy emphasis on the economic importance of the City Regions, sustainable transport, promoting social inclusion, and delivering plan-led growth and regeneration. Rail has a role to play supporting policy within the transport network where population or employment densities are high playing to the mode’s natural strengths.

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3.4 Conclusions from Baselining and Drivers of Change

Our Part 1 Report presented the Baseline position in Scotland and defined the future Drivers of Change and their implications, in terms of the capacity of the railway to carry growth in passenger and freight demand; and the adequacy of the railway in terms of the level or availability of services and the accessibility of services (including their integration with other modes of transport).

3.4.1 Current Nature of Scotland and Recent Trends Beyond the cities of Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee, Aberdeen and Inverness, Scotland is generally sparsely populated. Overall, the population is decreasing across the country with modest increases in the South East offset by significant decreases elsewhere. Employment is naturally highest in the cities, as are wages. Employment shows significant decline in many areas outside the Central Belt, which highlights the shift from a manufacturing based economy to a primarily service sector based economy. Nevertheless, Glasgow remains an important manufacturing centre in the UK. In summary, the cities and their hinterlands (the City Regions) are the drivers of growth across the country.

3.4.2 Current Performance of Scotland’s Rail and Transport Network Rail forms an important part of Scotland’s transport network with some 66.1 million journeys in 2003/04. Just over two thirds of these were on the Glasgow suburban rail network. 95% of the passenger services in Scotland are operated through First ScotRail with the remainder provided by GNER, Virgin West Coast and Virgin Cross Country. Freight is also important, particularly the movement of . This is a critical factor in Central Belt rail network capacity and on lines in south west Scotland. There has also been long term growth in inter-modal traffic, to / from deep sea container ports in England. The two main foci for passenger rail services are Edinburgh and Glasgow. There is also significant demand for cross-border travel along both the East and West Coast Main Lines. The majority of journeys to Edinburgh and Glasgow are journeys of less than 50km. By contrast, the majority of trips to Aberdeen are in excess of 100km. Passenger demand is concentrated: 10% of stations in Scotland generate 70% of demand. Some passenger overcrowding occurs: on the Fife Circle, the electric services from into Glasgow via Paisley Gilmour Street and certain diesel services into Glasgow including the Stirling corridor. A very small number of peak hour Edinburgh – Glasgow services via Croy also experience overcrowding. There are a number of operational constraints on the existing railway, including line speeds, track layout, signalling restrictions, the structure of the timetable and numerous sections of single track. Looking at journey times and considering interchange penalties, commuting by rail has journey time advantages. However, on longer distance inter-urban passenger journeys (except between Edinburgh and Glasgow), road remains more attractive than the rail product. The roles of rail within the wider transport network in Scotland are: • supporting Edinburgh’s economic success by enabling a skilled workforce from a wide catchment to commute into the city centre; • supporting Glasgow’s economy by enabling significant levels of commuting into the city centre; • providing an inter-urban rail service that links Edinburgh and Glasgow city centres thereby providing important economic and social connectivity between Scotland’s two major cities; • contributing to connecting the economies and societies of regional centres such as Aberdeen, Inverness and Dundee to the Central Belt;

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• providing links to the major cities and economies of England, through fast, inter-urban passenger services and the movement of large volumes of trainload and bulk freight; • providing a critical link in the supply chain for the Scottish power generation industry; • helping to address peripherality by providing lifeline rail services to rural areas in the Highlands and the South West (including connections to ferry services) and by providing certain freight services; and • supporting tourism by providing cross-border links and services to popular tourist destinations in the Highlands.

In fulfilling these roles in Scotland, rail presently focuses on the following transport markets: • high density commuter flows into Scotland’s two principal cities; • inter-urban, city centre to city centre travel by passengers between Edinburgh and Glasgow, and to a lesser extent between these cities and Aberdeen and Inverness; • less time sensitive, longer distance cross-border travellers (tourists) and those travelling to locations in the north and Midlands of England where rail is time competitive; • the movement of imported coal by trainload from Hunterston to Longannet power station (and Cockenzie), and cross-border to coal-fired power stations in England; • the movement of Scottish opencast coal by trainload from the Central Belt to coal-fired power stations in England; • the movement of deep sea containers between Mossend and Coatbridge and the major container ports in the South and East of England; and • an emerging market for the movement of freight using intermodal swap bodies on trunk flows within the logistics chain.

There are certain important markets that rail presently does not particularly serve well, including air passenger travel to airports (with the exception of Prestwick), the majority of commuting into regional centres, inter-urban travellers outside of the Central Belt and certain time sensitive cross-border travellers who presently fly to destinations in England and Wales. Rail is strongest where it serves passenger or freight flows if volumes and densities are high, such as commuting into major centres, inter-urban routes and flows of bulk freight. The railway in Scotland has important strengths today, which are: • an extensive network of commuter services around and into Glasgow, which is the busiest suburban network outside of London; • the recent development (over the last twenty years) of a commuter network into Central Edinburgh from the main and emerging locations of housing; • a competitive Glasgow – Edinburgh inter-urban rail service in terms of journey time, frequency and quality when compared to the congested road and motorway network; • providing good cross-border passenger and freight links; • the ability to move large quantities of bulk and trainload freight economically and effectively within Scotland and to England and Wales; and • although the rural railways in the north and south west of Scotland are heavily dependent on financial support, they deliver wider social benefits.

However, some important weaknesses limit opportunities to make best use of the network: • insufficient capacity on sections of the rail network that are already busy across the Central Belt: key pinchpoints constrain the opportunity for frequency increases; • services connecting Aberdeen and Inverness to Edinburgh and Glasgow in terms of its journey time, frequency, arrival times and quality when compared to alternative modes; • rail access to parts of Edinburgh is limited: frequent bus services off-set this impact; • a lack of rail access to Glasgow and Edinburgh airports;

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• the development of rail services incrementally over time has led to some role confusion • a lack of space at station car parks; • poorly timed interchange at critical hubs such as Inverness and ; • a lack of capacity on the Glasgow South Western (GSW) route for Anglo-Scottish coal traffic; and • poor integration with other public transport modes, and competition rather than collaboration in the levels of service provision on more lightly used routes.

The SPA has a central assumption that train service performance will continue to improve and be maintained. This seems realistic given FSR’s achievements in reducing delays since the start of the franchise. We have not considered performance further, other than identifying where planned increases to the quantum of train services necessitates providing additional infrastructure or signalling to maintain acceptable performance levels. The Atkins report undertaken for the SRA in 2003 considered it unlikely that progress towards a High Speed Line would result in completion of a service between Scotland and London before 2026. On that basis, for the purposes of this report, it was assumed that there would be no North – South High Speed Line in Britain implemented by 2026.

3.4.3 The Scottish Minister’s Committed Schemes for Rail • Larkhall – Milngavie (opened in December 2005); • reinstatement of Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine route (due to open in autumn 2007); • Waverley Infrastructure Works (due to be completed in November 2007); • Airdrie – Bathgate track improvements; • Edinburgh Airport Rail Link (EARL); • Rail Link (GARL); and • .

In summary, the seven committed schemes will: • provide more effective routing for certain freight services and release capacity for passenger services across the Forth Rail Bridge; • link Glasgow and Edinburgh airports to a much larger hinterland by public transport, so facilitating their anticipated growth and helping to suppress growth in car trips; • enable further commuting into Edinburgh from existing stations and areas not presently served by rail, increasing the skilled workforce labour accessible to the capital; and • encourage further commuting by rail into and across Glasgow, increasing rail’s role in supporting Glasgow’s economy and future regeneration.

The SPA assumed that all of these schemes were delivered by 2010 and examined their impact on demand and crowding. We identified that the schemes will not address all the overcrowding problems affecting routes into Edinburgh and Glasgow. EARL may actually increase load factors on certain trains. In addition, Scottish Ministers are committed to implementing two tram lines in Edinburgh to Edinburgh Airport and Granton / Leith that are likely to increase the relative importance of

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Haymarket as a destination (or interchange) in Edinburgh. Furthermore, the SPA assumes that FSR introduces all of its franchise commitments by 2011; a significant proportion of which have already been delivered.

3.4.4 Future Drivers of Change in Scotland The City Regions are expected to drive growth in Scotland, which is expected to continue to undergo important economic and demographic change. These changes will have important implications for transport in terms of commuting and inter-urban journeys, as well as the movements of freight required to support the City Regions. The most substantial economic and population growth will be in Edinburgh and across the South East region, driven by the projected continued growth and success of the Edinburgh economy. Significant population growth is forecast in the South-east. These changes are supported by plan policies, which seek to deliver expansion in many of these areas. These towns will increasingly support and benefit from Edinburgh-based employment through commuting. Demand for travel will also increase significantly as a result of the major expansion of Edinburgh Airport.

Around Glasgow, the challenge is to reduce and reverse patterns population decline. Significant regeneration is planned for central and inner areas of Glasgow, with forecast employment and economic growth. Household changes in suburban and commuter areas, will have important implications for transport. The future economic competitiveness of Glasgow will depend on its ability to attract and retain a skilled workforce, and its transport connections to other cities.

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In Aberdeen there is a need to diversify the economy away from North Sea oil and gas production, whilst in Dundee there is a need to attract and foster investment in growth sectors, following the decline of traditional industries. Inverness is likely to continue to grow as a major business and services hub. An important factor in the future success of these cities will be the quality of connections to the economically important Central Belt. The main freight markets may change after 2016 due to changes in the factors affecting the demand for the movement of key commodities such as coal and containers. The announcement by Scottish Power in February 2006 to fit flue gas desulphurisation equipment to Longannet is a positive development.

3.4.5 The Implications of Change for the Rail Networks Rail’s role will increase in importance, especially on the corridors most affected by future change. Plan-led housing and employment growth in Central Scotland will complement rail’s natural advantage in providing fast connections for centre-to- centre movements between the principal population centres, and for bringing high volumes of commuters into centres. Road congestion will continue to worsen, particularly in the Stirling, Glasgow and Edinburgh ‘motorway box’. For the purposes of this report, we agreed an assumption that there would be no road pricing over the life of the assessment.

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The significant growth in air passenger numbers at Edinburgh and Glasgow Airports will be facilitated by the opening of EARL and GARL. Growth will also be experienced at Prestwick, probably necessitating frequency improvements on services to Ayr. The rail capacity requirements of a proposed container port at Hunterston could also be significant. In certain parts of the country, rail will not have sufficient capacity to meet the demand generated by the Drivers of Change. Many routes do have sufficient capacity to accommodate demand growth. Our analysis indicated that growth in commuting by rail will continue, especially around Edinburgh and the Glasgow – Edinburgh routes. The committed rail projects will contribute to alleviating some pressure on the Glasgow suburban rail network. Crowding and congestion will particularly affect many of the radial routes around Edinburgh (especially to Fife and the airport) the Glasgow – Edinburgh via Croy route, and routes to Glasgow from Stirling and the Ayrshire coast.

3.5 Rationale for an Objectives-Led Approach

The main principle for the SPA is that it is based on an objectives-led approach. The starting point for the assessment should not be the long-list of rail scheme proposals and/or aspirations. Such an approach would be pre-disposed towards specific interventions, which might not be optimal or appropriate in the context of relevant national and regional objectives. The benefits of an objectives-led approach are that it: • recognises the importance of transport in supporting wider policy objectives; and • provides a clear and robust framework for considering the merits of different outcomes and interventions (some of which may be non-rail solutions).

3.6 Defining Objectives

For the purposes of the SPA, ‘objectives’ are defined as high-level aims or targets for the future. Objectives may be specific to a particular geographical area, and indicate in broad terms the outcome that will be achieved if the objective is met. The vital point is that these objectives should not pre-determine particular interventions; there may be a number of different means of achieving an objective. Objectives should be differentiated from detailed outcomes, and should not specify the targets for achieving the objective, or specific interventions. The rationale is to enable different interventions and solutions to be considered, and to enable an assessment of which package of interventions best addresses the objectives, with regard to deliverability and value for money. These interventions may be very different in nature. They might include management as well as infrastructure solutions, cover a range of modes, and deliver different outcomes or combinations of outcomes (i.e. improving capacity, performance, journey times, accessibility, journey quality, safety, integration, value-for-money).

3.7 Relevant Policy and Guidance

3.7.1 High-level Objectives Transport policy in Scotland emphasises the importance of an objectives-led approach to managing and improving the transport system: “Our overall aim is to promote economic growth, social inclusion, health and protection of our environment through a safe, integrated, effective and efficient transport system.” Scotland’s Transport Future: The Transport White Paper, June 2004 (p17)

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This recognises the role and importance of transport in supporting and delivering wider policy priorities for Scotland. To provide the context for the SPA, the specific high-level objectives for transport set by Scottish Ministers in Scotland’s Transport Future are listed in Figure 3.1 below. Figure 3.1: High-Level Objectives for Transport Set Out in Scotland’s Transport Future

“Our objectives are to: • Promote economic growth by building, enhancing, managing and maintaining transport services, infrastructure and networks to maximise their efficiency; • Promote social inclusion by connecting remote and disadvantaged communities and increasing the accessibility of the transport network; • Protect our environment and improve health by building and investing in public transport and other types of efficient and sustainable transport which minimise emissions and consumption of resources and energy; • Improve safety of journeys by reducing accidents and enhancing the personal safety of pedestrian, drivers, passengers and staff; • Improve integration by making journey planning and ticketing easier and working to ensure smooth connection between different forms of transport.”

From Scotland’s Transport Future: The Transport White Paper. June 2004 (p17)

3.7.2 Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) An objectives-led approach is a central principle of STAG, and is specified as the first two of the five main recurring themes for the Guidance: “Objective-led – all activities and decisions should arise from the established aims of the planning organisation with respect to transport and associated policy areas”; and “Open-minded – the Guidance suggests working up transport proposals on the basis of defined objectives supported by a thorough understanding of the problems and opportunities in the areas, rather than seeking to fit an existing proposal retrospectively to planning objectives” Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance, September 2003 (Executive Summary, para 11). The Guidance goes on to explain three important considerations when setting objectives: • there should not be any prejudice or presumption towards a preconceived solution; • objectives should be specific, attainable, and relevant, and where appropriate measurable and timed; and • objectives should relate to desired outcomes, not the processes of outputs which might precede them.

3.8 Regional Objectives

It will be important that the Regional Transport Strategies, to be produced by the Regional Transport Partnerships (RTPs), are objectives-led, recognising the importance of integration with higher-level national objectives, as well as objectives for transport at below regional level.

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As part of the SPA, discussions have been held with representatives of the RTPs. Much of the discussion with the RTPs was based on specific transport issues, problems and proposed interventions. It is clear that the RTPs, at this early stage of their development, have not yet developed clear sets of regional objectives for transport.

3.9 Objectives at Sub-Regional and Local Level

Policy documents at sub-regional and local level (for example Structure Plans, or City Region Plans in the future) include objectives for transport, as well as specific scheme proposals. It is important to consider how these objectives fit with national policy objectives. A relevant example relates to objectives in Structure Plans for future population change and housing growth. The cumulative impact of all these objectives and targets from different Structure Plans, may not be achievable at a Scotland-wide level, and may not be consistent with national targets. It is also necessary to consider proposals for intervention that derive from local or sub- regional policy documents, against a wide range of national objectives. For example, a proposal for a new station may help achieve a local objective to improve accessibility to a particular locality, but may impair the ability of the wider rail network to meet other high-level objectives in relation to performance, journey time, or value for money. These trade-offs need to be carefully considered. Proposed reforms to the planning system in Scotland seek to address these issues4. If the proposals are enacted in the forthcoming Planning Bill, all authorities will prepare Local Development Plans and authorities in the four main city regions, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen, will jointly prepare City Region Plans for these areas. The SE will discuss national priorities with City Region Plan authorities in respect of their areas.

3.10 Identifying the Key Objectives for Rail

This section identifies the policy objectives for the study area that are relevant to rail. These objectives have been identified through a review of policy at national, regional, and Structure Plan (SP) level, and discussions with stakeholders. The objectives are divided into two groups: those which relate to a theme which is applicable in many areas of Scotland, and those which are more spatially specific. At the end of this section we show that all of the objectives can be mapped back to the high level objectives for ’s Transport Future that were listed in Figure 3.1.

3.10.1 Thematic Objectives

Support plan-led growth and regeneration; improve integration with land-use planning (Transport WP 2004 p26; NPF 2004 p48, 64) Planning policy in Scotland anticipates significant development over the study period, especially in the Central Belt and around Inverness. Plan-led growth – or the reversal of decline, particularly in urban areas – is a policy aim across the country. In some areas, improvements in public transport may catalyse development, especially where the necessary physical infrastructure already exists.

4 Modernising the Planning System White Paper, June 2005

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The best potential synergy between development and the rail network is likely to arise where the new development can be provided at high densities and large scales. Rail use will also be maximised where development can be located in close proximity to stations, or where ‘feeder’ bus services can be provided to bring passengers to the stations from surrounding areas. Synergy between development and the rail network will depend on the level and quality of the rail service offered. Many areas allocated for development in the most recent round of Structure Plans are located in reasonable proximity to the existing rail network, although in some cases an appropriate halt or station may not currently exist. There are several aspirations for new development. Where appropriate, there will also be scope to ensure that some economic development that will generate freight movements can be served by rail, either through direct rail connections or through intermodal capability.

Facilitate access to airports (Transport WP p32; NPF p56) Airports are increasingly important for the Scottish economy, and are expected to grow further in the next 20 years. Airports generate significant demand for surface travel. The objective to serve the major airports of Glasgow and Edinburgh by rail will be addressed by the GARL and EARL schemes respectively. Prestwick already has its own station offering a regular service to Glasgow. The challenge for the non-rail-served airports is likely to be to improve their accessibility by other forms of public transport, providing integration with rail, where appropriate.

Facilitate access to ports (passenger and freight) (Transport WP p31; NPF p58, 64) Ferry services from mainland Scotland to the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland, and on the Clyde, have a vital role to play in facilitating trade and tourism, bringing visitors to the islands and enabling produce to be exported to the rest of the country and beyond. However, many of the ports on the west and north coasts also have the potential to attract more business in their own right. There may be a role for public transport improvements in facilitating access to these settlements. There are important existing ferry links to and mainland Europe. There is a role for public transport to provide links to all ports in Scotland that provide services to Northern Ireland and mainland Europe. Hunterston deep water facility will continue be the main freight port in Scotland, with possible further expansion anticipated should the container port proposals be taken forward. It has already been recognised that this will require investment in transport infrastructure in order for this to proceed.

Achieve more sustainable patterns of freight movement (Transport WP p40) Rail freight transport in Scotland is currently dominated by coal movements to support power generation in Scotland and England. There is significant uncertainty in relation to the continued use of coal imported via Hunterston after 2016 due to the implications of the environmental regulations surrounding the power generation industry. There is also uncertainty regarding opencast coal mining. The indications are that opencast mining in Scotland will continue to expand and export its coal across the border to England, and additional investment may be required if the current level of coal traffic continues.

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International container freight is however projected to grow significantly over the study period increasing its requirements for the use of rail. Furthermore, there will be growth in use of rail on the trunk haul flow. An important factor in maximising rail freight capability will be the provision of facilities for inter-modal interchange.

Strengthen cross-border transport links (Smart, Successful Scotland 2001 p14; Transport WP p18; NPF p48, 57) Trade with England and the rest of Europe makes a significant contribution to Scotland’s economy. Rail competes with air in the cross-border transport market. Where cross-border links can be improved, and travel times reduced, benefits can clearly be expected.

Improve integration between transport services and modes (Transport WP p22-23) Integration between public transport services and modes can serve to increase the attractiveness of travelling by public transport compared to the private car. Streamlined interchanges and well-timed connecting services can enable shorter waiting times and more pleasant passenger environments. This applies not only to rail services but to local buses, long-distance coaches and ferry services. The Disability Discrimination Act is a consideration in designing new interchange facilities and should serve to improve the experience of travelling by public transport for all users, not just those with impaired mobility. Relevant integration issues include connections between one rail service and another; rail and bus (including the provision of dedicated feeder bus services); rail and car (including car parking provision at stations); and rail and non-motorised modes (including pedestrian and cycle links between stations and their hinterlands, as well as cycle storage/transportation). Innovation in ticketing systems, so that ‘one ticket will get you anywhere’, is also promoted by the Transport White Paper (p7). A co-ordinated approach to providing travel information can also assist integration.

Foster social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private car (Transport WP p19) As set out by the Transport White Paper (2004), the availability of transport is often critical in enabling people to gain access to employment opportunities and other essential services. Public transport can therefore be vital for people without access to a car. This applies in both urban and more peripheral areas. Rail can provide access to employment and services as an alternative to the private car, although demand is sensitive to any increases in fare levels. Rail is only one part of the potential solution: other modes, such as local buses, may be well placed to achieve this objective.

Shift to more sustainable modes of transport (NPF p34; Transport WP p17) The Transport White Paper reported that unless action is taken, road traffic growth is projected to increase by 27% in the next 20 years, with detrimental effects on journey times, air quality, road safety, health and climate change (p11). The White Paper and the National Planning Framework seek instead to stabilise road traffic volumes over this period through a series of policy measures. Rail may be a suitable alternative to the private car for some types of journey, but the product needs to become more competitive. Interestingly during our stakeholder liaison, business organisations raised this as an important issue for inter-urban rail. This is relevant in seeking to encourage people to transfer from private car to public transport, and it is also important in ensuring that public transport remains attractive to existing users.

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Reduce the harmful environmental impacts of travel (NPF p34; Transport WP p17) Rail can be more environmentally friendly than other forms of transport, depending on the type of journey and rolling stock. The environmental performance of rail services per passenger depends on several factors, including the method of power generation for electric trains, and the age and fuel efficiency of diesel engines. Levels of train loading affect the relative environmental performance of rail services in comparison to other modes.

Promote tourism (Infrastructure Improvement Plan 2005 p44; FEDS 2000 page ix) Tourism is a significant part of the Scottish economy, and is to be promoted. It currently employs around 10% of the population and generates around £4.2 billion a year. Over 90% of visitors come from England, Wales or Ireland; 65% of these currently come by car (NPF p12). The most popular destinations are the Highlands, Edinburgh and Glasgow. There are several potential means by which rail could promote Scottish tourism. Among these are enhancements to cross-border services, rural services, and airport and port connections.

3.10.2 Spatially Specific Policy Objectives

Improve Glasgow-Edinburgh interaction / connectivity (NPF p70; draft GCV SP 2005; Edinburgh & Lothians SP 2004) In order to compete effectively in the global marketplace, it has been recognised that Glasgow and Edinburgh should work together and present themselves as “two economic and cultural anchors linked by a fast, high quality transport system” (NPF p70). This objective is supported by the Edinburgh & Lothians SP (2004) and the draft Glasgow Clyde Valley SP (2005). It is also supported by the revised strategy of the Scottish Enterprise Networks, A Smart, Successful Scotland (2004): “our city regions …are diverse – geographically, culturally and socially – but, in a global setting, they are not large in scale. The connections between city regions must be exploited and their strengths combined to enable Scotland to compete effectively in a global environment” (p25). There is Ministerial support for collaboration between the two cities: Tom McCabe, Minster for Finance and Public Sector Reform, announced at the Edinburgh City Region conference in May 2005 that “jointly, Edinburgh and Glasgow city regions offer a scale that, in terms of population, ranks in Europe's 20 largest city regions. Systematic and targeted collaboration at all levels will - over time - result in greater competitive advantage and allow Scotland, as well as Edinburgh and Glasgow, to punch above their individual weight” (SE press release, 26th May 2005).

Facilitate sustainable plan-led growth in Edinburgh, Fife, Lothians & Borders (Edinburgh & Lothians SP 2004; Fife SP 2005; Scottish Borders SP 2002) Sustainable growth is a key aim of all the Structure Plans in South East Scotland. In areas such as Fife, this will require the reversal of previous downward trends in population and economic activity, while in Edinburgh and the Lothians the challenge is to accommodate sufficient development to meet the needs of the growing economy. The vision set out by the Edinburgh & Lothians SP states that high density residential development is to be promoted, with the recognition that this “would be consistent with the objective of making the best use of scarce land resources and also help to underpin the viability of public transport services by concentrating demand” (p19).

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Facilitate sustainable plan-led growth and regeneration in Glasgow, the Clyde Valley and Ayrshire (draft GCV SP 2005; draft Ayrshire SP 2004) The draft GCV Structure Plan identifies Metropolitan Glasgow as “a growth centre of importance to the Scottish economy” (p10). Glasgow City Centre will continue to be a focus for investment, especially in relation to higher education, culture and tourism. The proposed amendment to the 2000 GCV Structure Plan seeks to accommodate considerable population and economic growth in the next 10-15 years. Subject to approval by the Scottish ministers, this could be in the region of up to 95,000 new households by 2017. The Joint Committee acknowledges that “success in achieving growth will depend upon investment in environmental improvement, transport networks and water development” (page i). The consultation draft Joint Ayrshire Structure Plan also envisages significant development, focused in the core investment area between Irvine, and Ayr, to stabilise the declining population. In total, the plan seeks to make provision for up to 34,000 new homes by 2025; this is expected to stabilise the population of Ayrshire at around 362,000. The SP identifies "an urgent need to raise prosperity through increased access to opportunity, and to help secure an improved long-term economic future" (para 2.5). Business links to the 'gateway' locations of Hunterston, Prestwick Airport, and the ports of Ayr and Troon are to be promoted.

Strengthen economies and service provision in rural areas (NPF p78) The National Planning Framework recognises that profound changes have taken place in the rural economy, with long-term decline of traditional industries. However, it also states that “many rural areas can absorb more people without losing their environmental quality” and that there are now greater possibilities for more diverse economic activities in rural areas (p78). “Across Scotland the aim should be to develop a diverse, modern economy with an international perspective, based on environmental and cultural resources and knowledge and expertise” (p82). Where rail already serves rural areas, it plays an important role. There may be scope to focus development around existing rail connections. However, many rural areas in the Highlands and the South of Scotland will continue to depend heavily on the road network.

Support roles of Scottish cities (such as Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness, Perth and Stirling) as economic and service hubs and tourist centres (NPF 2004 p48, p76; Cities Review 2002) The NPF places a strong emphasis on the role of cities as the drivers of the economy over the next 20 years. This requires good connectivity with other cities within Scotland and beyond, and a high quality of life in a good environment. The NPF identifies Aberdeen and Inverness as having the potential to become ‘major tourism gateways’. It identifies a need for “an approach to city region development which promotes environmental quality, local and regional distinctiveness, connectivity and the efficient and sustainable use of resources” (p48). Scottish Enterprise has identified Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness and the Stirling area among others as Economic Development Zones which have the potential to become the focus for industry and business clusters. The NPF identifies the following key objectives for each of these cities (pp75-96): • Aberdeen must build on its strengths as an energy centre and broaden its business base; there is scope for attracting more tourists and expanding the service sector, including financial services and possibly creative industries; public transport access to the airport to be improved;

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• Dundee will need to promote regeneration, neighbourhood renewal and further improvements to the quality of life within the city boundary; • Inverness needs to develop its role as Highland capital, broaden its economic base, diversify employment opportunities and improve its connections to other cities; and • Stirling and Perth can build on their high quality environments and location at key points on Scotland’s transport network to attract development.

Provide competitive links between the Central Belt and the other Scottish cities (NPF p49, 62; Cities Review 2002) The NPF and other strategic documents identify the need for better transport links between Scottish cities. It is recognised that improved connectivity between cities can enhance their individual attractiveness and enable them to grow, as well as enhancing the overall Scottish economy. Innovation can be promoted where there are good connections between clusters of related activities. Initiatives are underway to disperse some public functions from the major centres of Glasgow and Edinburgh to the other Scottish cities. Spreading economic activity more widely is expected to relieve some of the pressure in high growth areas such as Edinburgh (NPF p49).

3.11 Tensions Between Specific Objectives

It is important to consider the balance of various objectives and the necessary trade-offs that may need to be made in seeking to achieve the key objectives for rail. For instance, in the context of limited resources it may be necessary to consider the following possible inter- relationships, conflicts and trade offs: • different spatially-specific objectives; • objectives that require rail to focus on short-medium distance commuting, and objectives that require rail to provide fast long distance connections between main cities; • objectives relating to freight and how they interact with objectives relating to the passenger railway; • objectives relating to improving accessibility, and objectives to improving performance and enhancing capacity; and • objectives in relation to value for money, and wider policy objectives to improve accessibility to areas that do not generate high levels of demand for travel.

3.12 Implications of the Objectives for Rail’s Optimal Future Role and Focus

The Part 1 Report highlighted the drivers of change that will affect the importance of rail in the wider Scottish transport network in the period through to 2026. We drew attention to certain routes where capacity may not be sufficient to accommodate future demand and parts of the rail network that are not adequate to support wider spatial and economic policy. These issues (which are discussed in more detail in the subsequent chapters) threaten the delivery of the key objectives for rail identified in this chapter and pose questions regarding the optimal future role and focus for rail in Scotland because of the inherent tensions between different objectives that were discussed above: • Should rail focus on commuting or providing inter-urban connections?

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• If capacity is limited, should rail focus on fast or stopping services (and is further investment justified so it can do both, or are other modes of transport part of the solution)? • What should be the balance of use of the network for passenger and freight services? • Should new routes be opened or existing bottlenecks removed to enable the improvement of existing services? • Should rail focus on the main city regions and centres in Scotland and, if so, how should it serve smaller centres and rural areas? • Should new stations be opened or achieve better integration with other modes to achieve growth from existing stations? The nature of rail’s fixed asset base means that rail is most efficient and effective at focusing on high volume flows of passengers and freight, and routes with high densities of population or employment along them. Examples would include inter-urban travel between major cities (especially where the road journey is less competitive or unreliable), high density commuting flows, and bulk flows of freight such as coal and links to major airports. However, consideration should also be given to making best use of the rail network. These opportunities must take account of capacity constraints, wider policy initiatives and making best use of rail. If there is sufficient capacity, there may be scope to introduce local rail services to complement the faster inter-urban network, plus retain capacity for freight. There may be merits in restructuring existing services, and introducing new trains to meet this objective. The introduction of any additional or restructured services must be subject to a rigorous financial and economic assessment. If there is less capacity or congestion already exists on the network, choices may need to be made to prioritise rail services. Taking account of the key objectives for rail, this suggests that rail’s future optimal role and focus should be as follows: • Enabling rail commuting on high volume flows into Edinburgh and Glasgow each weekday. Rail’s existing time advantage over road for such journeys should grow as motorway and road congestion worsens and the committed rail schemes are implemented. This should increase rail’s importance as a mode for business and leisure journeys provided that rail frequencies facilitate turn up and go travel by passengers. Rail will continue to be critical to supporting the successful future growth of Edinburgh and plan-led growth in Glasgow. Solutions to increase capacity or spread peak demand will be essential if rail is to fulfil this role. • Improving connectivity between Glasgow and Edinburgh by providing a fast, frequent, high quality service on the main route via Croy as well as utilising the reopened Airdrie – Bathgate route, and through improving frequency and speed on the under-utilised routes via Shotts and Carstairs for inter-urban trips from areas less able to access the Croy route. Effective information provision on the different routes between Scotland’s two major cities will be essential. • Providing a competitive inter-urban rail product in terms of journey time, frequency, arrival times and quality between the Central Belt and Inverness, Aberdeen and other major cites and towns (particularly Perth and Dundee) to support the important economic role of the City Regions and to provide more competitive links from the Central Belt.

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• Enabling more sustainable commuting into regional centres where volumes and densities are sufficiently high. This can be achieved by timetabling services to make effective use of rolling stock capacity, since passengers are travelling in the contra-peak direction to the main flows towards Edinburgh or Glasgow. • Enabling continued cross-border travel between Scotland and England (particularly the north) given the competitive journey times on the ECML and WCML for journeys. Commencement of 125mph running on the WCML between Preston and Glasgow will reinforce the importance of the WCML as a strategic route with Glasgow to London journey times reduced to just over 4 hours. • Linking Scotland to its major airports. Planned rail connections to Edinburgh and Glasgow Airports will offer attractive public transport connections from a range of origins across Scotland to these rapidly expanding airports, particularly against a backdrop of worsening congestion on the and the Forth Road Bridge. Rail will also be critical in supporting a step change in passenger throughput at Prestwick Airport (rising from 2 to 6m passengers per annum over the period examined by the SPA).

• Linking Scotland to its major ports and conveying high volumes and regular flows of freight. The rail connections to Hunterston are especially important and may become more so in the future should the container port proposal be implemented.

• Enabling continued travel from rural areas into regional centres where railways and stations presently exist, especially the network of rural routes serving Inverness from the Far North, the West Highlands and South West Scotland. These routes will contribute to connecting the rural population with locations where regeneration and / or employment growth are planned. This will help to strengthen economies and service provision in the more rural areas of the country. Private car and bus services will still have an important role to play, especially where employment locations are dispersed. However, better integration with bus, especially infilling when train frequencies are low, will contribute to improved public transport accessibility in these areas and provide a viable and affordable alternative to the private car so promoting social inclusion. To achieve this requires: • best use of rail on the trunk journey; • integration with other modes and with wider spatial and economic strategies; and • continuing to focus investment on flows with overall high volumes and densities. The identified future optimal role and focus for rail provides a useful overall strategic focus to the identification of issues and generation and assessment of interventions in the subsequent chapters of this report. Generally, rail should avoid focusing on lower volume flows and densities where it is less efficient and effective such as: • some time sensitive Anglo-Scottish passenger journeys, principally business, where air can offer a more time sensitive product; • acting as a local distributor network for passengers, since private car, buses or light rail are normally better placed to fulfil these roles; • serving low density developments including small local communities; • operating in isolation from other modes, particularly in rural areas; • generally carrying wagonload or general merchandise freight unless on the trunk haul; and

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• trying to fulfil multiple roles (such as providing fast inter-urban journeys and serving local stations) where one role dilutes the impact of the other. This is especially important if the rail network has insufficient capacity / capability to meet both objectives and resources do not exist to fund significant enhancement. These factors will be taken into account in the generation and assessment of interventions.

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4 Generic Interventions

4.1 Background

During the SPA, it became apparent that there are a number of generic issues on the Scottish rail network that are not spatially or route specific. Most of these issues are current and need action today, or they will threaten realisation of certain of the key policy objectives identified for rail. Only a few of the issues will emerge in the future. The conclusions presented in this chapter provide an important context for the spatially and route specific analysis provided in subsequent chapters.

4.2 Discussion of Key Cross-Route Generic Objectives

In the future, the generic interventions could contribute to a number of key thematic objectives. These objectives include: • improving integration between transport services and modes; • fostering social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private car; • shifting to more sustainable modes of transport; • reducing the harmful environmental impacts of travel; • supporting plan-led growth and improved integration with land-use planning; and • supporting roles of Scottish cities as economic hubs.

4.3 Main Issues

The Part 1 report identified a number of general issues affecting the rail network, including: • limited availability of car parking, particularly at principal stations within the central belt; • rolling stock quality, particularly on the inter-urban routes to improve the competitiveness of rail versus other modes, primarily for business passengers; • high concentration of demand, particularly the high profile in the peak hour to Edinburgh and Glasgow; • services that operate with fewer coaches than the maximum permitted; • opportunities to construct new stations to generate new rail demand; • small scale infrastructure solutions that could potentially unlock capacity bottlenecks; • improving the quality of station facilities, commensurate with the level of use.

4.3.1 Modal Access The Part 1 report highlighted the limited availability of car parking at many stations. This restricted availability could limit the opportunity for further commuting growth into Edinburgh and Glasgow, and reduce the attractiveness of off-peak rail travel. There is a lack of non-car alternatives to many stations, even in locations with relatively high residential densities. Innovative approaches to improve modal access may be appropriate in rural areas, if the population catchment is insufficient to justify a bus feeder.

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4.3.2 Rolling Stock Quality The rolling stock quality deployed on the cross-border routes has been improved following the introduction of the new Pendolino fleet on the West Coast Main Line, and the refurbishment of the electric GNER fleet using the East Coast Main Line. However, the stakeholder consultations highlighted the lack of facilities in standard class on First ScotRail inter-urban services may discourage business passengers. The lack of plugs for lap-tops, better refreshments and additional tables do not offer a conducive working environment. The current rolling stock quality was identified as a particular constraint, particularly for business travellers5. Projects including EARL could allow better rolling stock to be procured, with a rolling stock cascade to allow service quality to be enhanced on other routes.

4.3.3 Peak Spreading / Train Lengthening We noted the relatively high concentration of arrivals during the peak hour into Edinburgh and Glasgow in the Part 1 report. First ScotRail strengthen some train formations in the peak hour to accommodate the level of demand. Providing additional capacity to meet further patronage growth is unlikely to represent a cost effective solution, since these units would only be required for a limited number of services. The additional capacity will only be required for a very small number of services. Consequently, the feasibility of alternative pricing mechanisms or incentives to encourage some passengers to travel outside the peak hour and use the “shoulder peak” periods (defined as 07.00-08.00 and 09.00-10.00 in the morning peak. This type of pricing mechanism could offer a cost-effective solution to support further commuting growth. The introduction of pricing mechanisms should be supported by train lengthening to ensure a higher proportion of trains operate at the maximum permitted length, for example, train lengthening to ensure services operate at 6-car length. The merits of enhanced frequency or train lengthening were considered. Generally, train lengthening represents a more affordable solution than higher train frequencies, particularly as additional infrastructure is generally required. This choice is considered in more detail for individual routes in subsequent chapters.

4.3.4 Incremental Network Enhancement The Central Scotland Capacity Study (CSCS) completed by Railtrack Scotland in 2001 identified a series of small scale improvements to improve network performance. The CSCS highlighted a series of relatively modest initiatives, including: • signalling enhancements at Glasgow Queen Street Low Level, Finnieston to Rutherglen, Dalmeny to Haymarket; • junction improvements to alleviate capacity bottlenecks, Milngavie branch line, Rutherglen East Junction between Rutherglen and Newton and the removal of single lead junctions at Bellgrove, Westerton and Craigendoran, Newbridge Junction. These types of generic intervention may be particularly important for dense suburban networks in Glasgow and Edinburgh.

5 The perceived poor on-train environment for business travel was a notable criticism expressed by the financial and business community during stakeholder liaison (such as the Scottish CBI)

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4.3.5 Quality of Interchange Stations The quality of station facilities can encourage greater use of the rail network. It is important to acknowledge the progress already achieved by FSR to improve station facilities, and this has led to a reduction in penalty payments through the SQUIRE regime. A better waiting environment at key interchange stations including Dundee, Perth, Inverness, Stirling, or Kilmarnock could encourage more passengers to use rail, especially if the proposed service enhancements to specific routes are delivered. These stations were selected since they form key interchanges between the following services: • Dundee – inter-urban trains from Aberdeen to Glasgow / Edinburgh and the semi-fast service from Edinburgh via Kirkcaldy; • Perth – inter-urban services from Aberdeen to Glasgow, and Inverness to Edinburgh; • Stirling – inter-urban services from Aberdeen to Glasgow, and local stopping trains from Stirling to Edinburgh and Glasgow; • Inverness – trains from the and the routes to Thurso / Wick, Kyle of Lochalsh and Aberdeen; • / Hamilton / / Dalmuir – key interchanges on the Glasgow suburban network; • Kilmarnock – trains from Glasgow on the GSW to Carlisle, and services to / from Girvan.

4.3.6 Minimum Station Facilities In addition to improving facilities at key interchanges, establishing a minimum standard of facilities for suburban stations could also help to encourage new rail patronage. These standards could depend on the level of passenger footfall, but may include: • better passenger information of current rail services; • improved waiting facilities; • improved security measures; • better information on the availability of connecting bus routes from the station to encourage wider modal interchange. Within Scenario A it would be useful to plan to implement an intervention to further improve standards at suburban stations to offer a minimum standard of facilities.

4.3.7 New Stations There are a significant number of stakeholder aspirations for new stations in Scotland. It is not possible to assess the business case for each new station as part of this study, so we have highlighted a number of criteria to help evaluate particular proposals, including the scope for demand generation and the operational impact of a new station. It is therefore recommended that the SE develop a new stations policy to handle proposals for stations. This could be an adaptation of the guidance previously developed by the SRA which highlights the economic, operational and technical issues. For example, on fast inter-urban services, additional station calls may jeopardise the role of rail because they slow down services and use line capacity, unless the number of trips generated is significant. Alternatively on rural networks, an extra station could generate important new revenue without affecting the operations.

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Consequently, the issues affecting the feasibility of a new station on the inter-urban network will differ compared with the rural networks, such guidance should constantly emphasise that high population densities and volumes are generally required for rail to be effective. We understand guidance is being developed by Network Rail on behalf of the DfT and Transport Scotland with input from these organisations.

4.4 Long List of Generic Interventions

Table 4.1 summarises the long list of generic interventions. We have allocated a reference number to each general problem, and given each potential solution a reference number. Generic themes are listed in Table 4.1, and interventions are shown separately for the individual routes. If an intervention is applicable to more than one route, the reference is also shown in each chapter. The spatial interventions for individual routes presented in Chapters 5-13.

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Table 4.1: Main Issues and Long List of Generic Interventions

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions GEN-I01: Implement peak pricing mechanism to encourage people to travel in the shoulder peak and reduce Passenger overcrowding on a over-crowding on the busiest trains. limited number of peak trains, Concentration of commuting in the peak particularly services from Glasgow hour means that some passengers using GEN-I02: Procure additional rolling stock GEN-P1 Queen Street, Fife and Bathgate the busiest 1 or 2 trains to Glasgow or to enable more services to operate at the into Edinburgh. Crowding problems Edinburgh during each peak period are maximum permitted length (generally 6- are also noted on a limited number forced to stand. car formations). of trains in Glasgow. GEN-I03: Review the usage of existing rolling stock to optimise the existing balance of 3 and 6-car trains. GEN-I04: Refurbish rolling stock to Rolling stock quality is inadequate, Current inter-urban units have limited improve on-board environment, particularly for the principal inter- facilities (lap-top plugs, tables) etc for particularly for business passengers, for GEN-P2 urban routes to attract business business passengers and therefore do not example, more tables, plugs for lap-tops passengers. offer a conducive working environment. in standard class and better on-board refreshments. Some new stations would not generate sufficient new demand to justify the station construction costs. Furthermore the GEN-I05: Examine the financial and Construction of new stations to help GEN-P3 introduction of a new station could cause operational business case to construct develop new passenger markets. operational problems, particularly if there is new stations. a mix of express and stopping services using the route.

First ScotRail count data illustrates many GEN-I06: Examine the scope for car parks are already operating at Modal access to some stations is additional car parking, particularly at capacity. This lack of capacity could GEN-P4 inadequate to support further stations close to the strategic road restrict opportunities for future commuting patronage growth. network. growth, and the opportunities to develop an off-peak market.

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions GEN-I07: Examine the scope for bus-rail feeder services to the principal stations, Bus feeder services providing connections particularly if residential densities are to main stations is inadequate. relatively high. GEN-I08: Examine the feasibility of innovative pricing mechanisms for taxis to serve stations with relatively low density residential development. GEN-I09: Examine the case for Current network layout restricts delivering relatively small scale network There are several examples of single lead capacity in some locations; these improvements, including enhancements junctions, signalling constraints, and GEN-P5 can affect the ability of the network to signalling capability, revising junction sections of the network that operate close to recover following service layouts to improve operational resiliency, to capacity, particularly in Glasgow. perturbation. and other infrastructure schemes to improve network performance. GEN-I10: Identify a series of improvements to stations to deliver The current ScotRail franchise includes the minimum standards of facilities, including Facilities at some stations are SQUIRE regime to maintain standards of waiting areas, passenger information, GEN-P6 inadequate to encourage seamless station facilities, but this proposal is more security, and modal interchange journeys using public transport. wide ranging. information. The range of facilities should be commensurate with the level of passenger throughput. GEN-I11: Identify a series of The proposed timetable amendments Facilities at some stations are improvements to key interchanges could increase the importance of inadequate to encourage seamless including Perth, Dundee, Aberdeen, GEN-P7 interchange at some major interchanges, journeys using public transport, Inverness and Kilmarnock to deliver and existing waiting facilities may be particularly at major interchanges. minimum standards of facilities at these inadequate. stations.

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4.5 Generic Interventions Not Taken Forward After Shortlisting or STAG Part 1 Appraisal

4.5.1 Interventions Not Taken Forward at shortlisting During shortlisting (see Appendix A), a number of the long listed interventions were not taken forward: • Refurbishment of rolling stock on rural routes. Whilst rolling stock quality improvements for the inter-urban routes passed the shortlisted, improvements for the rural networks were not taken forward. Passenger loadings on these routes are generally low, and there is a lack of business passengers to justify the investment; • Bus feeder service from North Berwick to Edinburgh. We proposed a lower cost solution to improve public transport connectivity. However, the relatively slow journey times caused by traffic congestion means this intervention is unlikely to be viable, since the bus timings would be considerably slower than the current rail journey times; • Bus feeder services to Dunbar and Carstairs stations. Population densities are too low to justify the introduction of feeder services. Alternative solutions with innovative pricing for taxis may represent a more cost effective solution; • New stations if they fail to generate sufficient wholly new trips, rather than simply abstract journeys from adjacent stations. Secondly, the operational implications of some proposed new stations may cause difficulties, particularly if there is a mix of stopping and express services.

4.5.2 Interventions not taken forward after STAG Part 1 assessment All interventions were taken forward after completion of the STAG Part 1 assessment.

4.6 Selected Generic Interventions

A series of generic themes have been developed to underpin the spatially specific interventions discussed in Chapters 5-13. We have highlighted a series of themes that should underpin the spatial interventions, but it is not possible within the terms of reference and timescales for completing the SPA to appraise these interventions individually. Consequently, we would recommend that local stakeholders develop individual business cases for these interventions. Table 4.2 overleaf summarises the matrix of interventions for individual routes.

4.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening

There are significant consequences of not delivering these interventions. These ideas are very much the enablers for future interventions. If there is not good integration with car and other modes, this will be a barrier to rail travel. It will also lead to significant motorway and road congestion in the future (remembering that the SPA assumed no road pricing as a basis for analysis). This will threaten rail’s ability to contribute to objectives surrounding sustainability, the environment and integration between modes of transport. If the on-train environment and stations are not welcoming then passengers are likely to choose other modes. Stations that are not perceived as secure will also exclude certain sections of society from rail travel.

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Table 4.2: Matrix of Interventions for Individual Routes

Pricing Train Rolling New Modal Incremental Quality of lengthening stock stations access network interchange quality enhancement

Edinburgh – √ √ √ √ √ Glasgow

Other inter-urban √ √ √ √ √

Edinburgh Local √ √ √ √ √ √

Glasgow South √ √ √ √ √ West

Glasgow North √ √ √ √ √

Glasgow South √ √ √ √ √ East

Rural Routes – √ √ √ North

Rural Routes – √ √ √ South

Anglo – Scottish √ √ √ √ √ Routes

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5 Edinburgh – Glasgow Routes

5.1 Geographic interventions

Each of the interventions listed in the next nine chapters would require business case appraisal and may require some amendment to their scope in light of the appraisal results. It would be good practice to compare their net benefits to improvements to the existing routes while developing the outline business case, while being cognisant of the wider economic impacts associated with supporting plan-led growth by developing other rail corridors.

5.2 Background

The SPA’s analysis assumes the delivery of the seven schemes to which the Scottish Ministers are committed. These include diverting two of the 4tph on the route via Croy and Falkirk High between Edinburgh and Glasgow via EARL to Edinburgh Airport, and the 4tph operating between Edinburgh and Glasgow via Airdrie and Bathgate. Reopening Airdrie – Bathgate will provide important new links to both Glasgow and Edinburgh to connect areas of future plan-led housing growth around Armadale and in the Livingston area. In our 2011 “Do Minimum”, it is assumed that this re-opening is implemented providing 4tph on the route with a city centre – city centre journey time of just over one hour. This includes some additional stations to serve plan-led housing development between Drumgelloch and Bathgate (especially at Armadale). To fully explore the means by which rail can contribute to improving Glasgow – Edinburgh interaction and connectivity, it is necessary to consider these other routes in this chapter: the diesel route via Shotts with its present relatively slow and infrequent service and the route via Carstairs. The route via Shotts serves the area of plan-led housing development around Livingston and the edge of the development along the Glasgow Clyde Valley. Presently it also provides an important freight corridor for imported coal moving from Hunterston to power stations in England via the ECML due to the lack of capacity on other Anglo-Scottish routes such as the GSW. The route via Carstairs provides a further alternative Glasgow – Edinburgh route. Consideration is also given to potential enhancements to the stations and existing diesel services between Cumbernauld and Glasgow which, when combined with a proposal for a park and ride station at Allandale off the M80, would relieve further growth in crowding on the Edinburgh – Glasgow via Croy route. This route is relevant, given the significant number of passengers from Cumbernauld that presently use Croy as a park & ride. Figure 5.2 at the end of the chapter illustrates the present network of routes between Edinburgh and Glasgow and the improvements arising from the recommendations in our study.

5.3 Key Objectives Supported

In the future the Glasgow – Edinburgh routes could contribute to a number of the key thematic objectives for rail of which the most important for identifying specific interventions are to: • support plan-led growth and regeneration; • facilitate access to airports (Edinburgh Airport via EARL); and • facilitate access to ports (Hunterston traffic using the Shotts route); They could also contribute to the following key spatially-specific policy objectives for rail: • improve Glasgow – Edinburgh interaction and connectivity;

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• facilitate sustainable plan-led growth in Edinburgh and the Lothians, and in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area; and • strengthen the roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and tourist centres.

5.4 Main Issues

Certain issues on the rail network could prevent the routes contributing to delivering the identified key objectives and fulfilling their important role in the Scottish transport network. They are listed in Table 5.1 overleaf. The main issues highlighted in the table are: • crowding caused in the peak hour on the Croy route due to the concentration of demand into this peak (worsened on the Croy route by 2tph serving Edinburgh Airport). Load factors will increase with passengers from Strathclyde and Falkirk travelling to Edinburgh Airport; • capacity constraints on the network preventing service frequency improvements to better serve areas of plan-led growth and to provide alternative Edinburgh – Glasgow routes via Shotts and Carstairs; • the interface with freight in Edinburgh (including the flow of Anglo-Scottish coal traffic from Hunterson to the ECML). Our analysis assumes that the implementation of the committed rail schemes will overcome certain constraints to increasing the quantum of services and improving timetable flexibility over the routes: • the Waverley Station upgrade (Phase 1a) will provide additional platform capacity at the station and remodel the station throat so enabling up to 4 additional trains per hour to use the station. The SE has provisionally allocated these train paths for the Airdrie - Bathgate scheme (2tph) and for extra services to Fife (2tph). This is an important consideration for any improvements in frequencies on the Shotts route; • in addition to providing an additional, but slower 4tph service between Edinburgh and Glasgow, the Airdrie – Bathgate scheme will remove constraints imposed by the single lead junction at Newbridge. The Airdrie to Bathgate scheme will also address a major constraint imposed by the existing single line section between Cawburn Junction and Bathgate by doubling this throughout; and • the Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine scheme will remove Longannet coal traffic east of Polmont Junction. The diversion of the Longannet coal traffic will have an impact on performance over the Greenhill to Stirling corridor, although this will be offset by the performance benefit from removing this traffic from the Polmont to Winchburgh corridor and over the Forth Bridge.

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Table 5.1: Main Issues and Long List of Interventions on Edinburgh – Glasgow routes

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions Generic: Implement peak pricing mechanism to Concentration of commuting in the peak hour encourage people to travel in the shoulder peak means that passengers using the busiest 1 and reduce over-crowding on the busiest trains. or 2 trains to Glasgow or Edinburgh during EG-I01: Develop a marketing strategy to Passenger overcrowding on a limited number each peak period are forced to stand. publicise the alternative routes between of peak period Glasgow – Edinburgh services Forecasts show that other trains appear to Edinburgh and Glasgow (following the will worsen. The problem will be particularly have some spare seating capacity. Platform completion of the Airdrie-Bathgate route, and EG-P1 acute on trains arriving and departing from lengths at Glasgow Queen Street impose the proposed improvements to the Shotts the new Edinburgh Airport station in the peak constraints on further train lengthening route). The strategy will highlight the alternative period as the airport’s passenger throughput (Platform 1 can only accommodate 3-car routes between Edinburgh and Glasgow. increases. sets and only platforms 2, 6 and 7 can accommodate 6-car trains) and the EG-I02: Introduce longer trains to tackle over- constraints listed for Issue EG-P2 below crowding. Intervention would require platform restrict further increases in frequencies. lengthening at stations including Queen Street and Edinburgh Waverley. EG-I03: Increase service frequency to 6tph to alleviate over-crowding on the busiest trains. Numbers of platforms at Glasgow Queen Improved frequency would also attract Street and their platform lengths (described additional patronage from the M8. There may be in EG-P1 above). The service sector will continue to grow in scope for some services to operate non-stop Edinburgh and Glasgow city centres, which Track layout south of Cowlairs Junction into between Glasgow and Edinburgh. Intervention will increase the demand for business and Glasgow Queen Street causes timetabling could require additional platforms at Glasgow leisure travel between the city centres. constraints for the 11-12tph in each direction. Queen Street, and construction of passing loops EG-P2 Further frequency enhancements will be between Cowlairs and Greenhill to allow Edinburgh-Glasgow trains must inter-work constrained by a number of significant express trains to overtake stopping services with stopping trains from Dunblane / Stirling constraints on timetabling flexibility and (although the journey times for stopping west of Greenhill Upper Junction due to the capacity. services may be penalised), and use the lack of passing loops on the two-track proposed turnback at Haymarket. railway, and east of Polmont Junction due to track layout. EG-I04: Increase service frequency to 6tph, with train frequencies serving the intermediate stations reduced.

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions EG-I05: Construction of a new dedicated high speed link between Edinburgh and Glasgow to alleviate over-crowding on existing services and deliver faster journey times between the city centres and support economic growth. EG-I06: 2tph operating semi-fast between Glasgow Central and Edinburgh. Principal stopping pattern is Uddingston, Shotts, West Trains serve all intermediate stations, so Calder, Livingston South and Haymarket. Other journey times are relatively slow compared intermediate stations between Holytown and with other modes. Slateford served by alternative trains. Intervention should be marketed as an Services only operate at hourly intervals, alternative service between Glasgow and except for a very limited number of short, Edinburgh. Higher train frequencies may require commuter workings. signalling improvements between Slateford and Significant population growth is forecast for There are a number of capacity constraints Midcalder, and re-doubling Midcalder Junction. West Lothian. There is an inadequate level of including: Additional platform capacity may also be service (generally hourly) for commuting, required at Glasgow Central and Edinburgh the long single lead junction onto the Shotts EG-P3 business and leisure trips from stations on Waverley. There may also be a requirement for route at Midcalder Junction and adjacent bi- the line from Glasgow Central to Edinburgh a local stopping service from Edinburgh to West directional section. via Shotts, and may be inadequate to support Calder to support population growth in West the forecast population growth. signalling headway of 6 minutes between Lothian. Slateford and Midcalder on route shared with EG-I07: Deliver improved capacity for the Shotts intercity services to Carstairs and coal traffic route, by diverting coal via the GSW route throughout. following improvements to the route. Flat junctions and mixture of stopping EG-I08: New rail service from Lanark to patterns on the approach to Glasgow Edinburgh to support plan-led growth Central. Generic: Improve station facilities at Addiewell to support the planned growth in usage, if the proposals for an adjacent prison are delivered

EG-P4 There are infrequent services on the route via Carstairs is located at the convergence of EG-I09: Enhance the frequency of trains to

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions Carstairs that could make a greater the WCML routes to Edinburgh and hourly between Glasgow Central and Edinburgh contribution to providing city centre to city Glasgow. Served very infrequently by First via Carstairs to supplement the existing GNER / centre journeys than at present. ScotRail trains (not GNER or Virgin), and VXC trains. access to the strategic highway network is Generic: Improved local bus services to poor. Carstairs to enhance access to rail network. Capacity constraints at Glasgow Central (platforms) and Edinburgh. Generic: Introduce additional parking provision, particularly at Croy where low density residential development reduces the attractiveness of bus- based Park & Ride. Generic: Identify opportunities for bus-based feeder services to Falkirk, Polmont and Linlithgow. Car parks are generally full on the route, First ScotRail data indicates existing parking EG-I10/ GN-I02: Electrification of the limiting the potential for rail to capture the availability is very limited at most stations. growth in demand for commuting and leisure Cumbernauld line would allow 2tph to be travel to Glasgow and Edinburgh. This is Train service frequencies and present diverted from Queen Street, freeing track and EG-P5 particularly important where housing growth availability of car parking on the platform capacity. Frequencies on the is planned around Falkirk and Grangemouth Cumbernauld line increasing demand for car Cumbernauld line could be increased so and where stations serve a relatively large parking and travel on the route into Glasgow encouraging more passengers to use the park and ride catchment, particularly at Croy. via Croy. service – particularly those currently using Croy as a Park and Ride. This would ease demand on the Croy route into Glasgow and ‘control’ the requirement for additional parking at Croy. Generic: Expand existing Park & Ride facilities at Uddingston to support possible patronage growth on the Shotts route from service frequency enhancements.

Continued use of the Edinburgh Suburban Timetable conflicts at Haymarket West EG-I11: Removal of conflicting passenger EG-P6 Line for coal traffic to Cockenzie power Junction between freight trains using the services to allow freight frequencies to be station (to 2016 but unclear beyond) and for Edinburgh Suburban Line and services increased.

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions other freight flows via Millerhill creates towards Glasgow and Fife. EG-I12/ ED-I10 / GSW–I09: Increase line conflicts at Haymarket West Junction. capacity for the Glasgow South West route via Dumfries. Current capacity constraints on the GSW mean some coal trains are forced to use the ECML and are routed via the and Millerhill. Coal trains originating from Fife pass through Haymarket West Junction.

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5.5 Long List of Interventions

Table 5.1 includes the long list of interventions generated, mapped against the issues that each addresses. The table is relatively self-explanatory but some key themes within the list of interventions should be highlighted: • The enhancement of the alternative route into Glasgow from Cumbernauld and Falkirk Grahamston (with a possible new park and ride site at Allandale). • Better information provision through an effective marketing strategy to publicise alternative ways of travelling between Edinburgh and Glasgow. The aim is to encourage travellers in the catchments of alternative routes, such as Airdrie – Bathgate and the Shotts and Carstairs lines (if the interventions to improve services on these routes were implemented), to use these alternatives, rather than park & ride at intermediate stations on the Croy route. • Increased service frequencies to cater for increasing demand for city centre to city centre travel. Identified solutions range from increasing from 4tph to 6tph on the route via Croy and establishing both 2tph semi-fast service on the Shotts route and a regular hourly service on the Carstairs route through to establishing a new dedicated, high speed line between the two cities. Such interventions should reduce the need to increase frequencies further and lengthen trains on the Croy route. • Provision of an alternative route to the Shotts line for Anglo-Scottish coal traffic by interventions to enhance the GSW route (discussed in more detail in Chapter 13).

5.6 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment

5.6.1 Interventions not taken forward at shortlisting During shortlisting (see Appendix A), a number of the long listed interventions were not taken forward: • Intervention EG-I04 – achieving a 6tph frequency on the Croy route by removing other services was not taken forward due to the probable resulting revenue loss and overcrowding on some local services into Edinburgh and Glasgow. • Intervention EG-I05 – the construction of a dedicated high speed line between the two cities was not taken forward because of its high cost, and the environmental / technical risks to delivery. Many journeys on the existing main route via Croy are not city centre to city centre suggesting that the business case for such a service would be weak (and not helped by abstraction of revenue from existing services). A high speed line may have merits if it formed part of a strategic connection to London and the South East, but this represents a major study in its own right, and is being led by DfT Rail. • Intervention EG-I08 – the introduction of a new direct service from Lanark to Edinburgh was not taken forward because of its probable poor business case and the fact that with the implementation of other interventions (service improvements to the Shotts and Carstairs routes) alternative routes will exist for those wishing to make this journey. • Intervention EG-I11 – the removal of passenger services to accommodate freight growth on the Glasgow – Edinburgh routes was not taken forward. Alternative solutions to increase capacity were identified and the removal of passenger services directly conflicts with certain key objectives for rail on these routes.

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5.6.2 Interventions not taken forward after STAG Part 1 assessment The following interventions were not taken forward after completion of the STAG Part 1 assessment (see Appendix B): • EG-I02 – running longer 9-car trains on the Croy route did not perform strongly when assessed. It has potentially high capital costs (£100m or greater if further phases of the Waverley upgrade are not implemented) because of the requirement to provide longer platforms (including potential additional platforms to permit platform lengthening at Edinburgh Waverley and Glasgow Queen Street). However, train lengthening is really only required for certain peak hour services. Our analysis in the Part 1 Report suggests that without train lengthening average load factors6 across the 3-hour AM peak will only rise to a maximum of just under 90% approaching Edinburgh Airport station. The implication of this is that crowding is just concentrated in the peak hour7 and does not justify the significant additional investment required (including the provision of significantly more car parking at intermediate stations). There would also be significant oversupply of capacity outside of the peak. Other interventions (described below) on the Edinburgh – Glasgow routes when combined with joint marketing of services should contribute to managing peak hour loadings in the future. • EG-I03 – increasing frequencies from 4tph to 6tph via Croy could alleviate peak hour overcrowding and attract some additional patronage from the parallel M8. However, the scheme is costly both in its additional operating costs and requirement for additional infrastructure (again in the order of £100m). The principal benefits would be slight access and social inclusion benefits through increased service frequencies. The scheme would again require additional operating subsidy and support for infrastructure investment. The benefits generated were not commensurate with the capital costs, so the scheme was not taken forward. Other recommended interventions including the proposed enhancements via Shotts and Carstairs will provide significant additional city centre to city centre service frequency improvements, this is discussed further below.

5.7 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions

The remaining interventions performed strongly in their STAG Part 1 assessments (see Appendix B). Our recommended approach to taking forward the interventions is summarised in Figure 5.1. This figure and similar ones in later chapters, shows our recommended priorities for future interventions in both Scenario A and Scenario B. Interventions are categorised (by colour coding) using the typology explained in Chapter 2. The key dependencies for each intervention (plan-led development or other changes on the rail network) are listed. In addition to the interventions shown in Figure 5.1, the delivery of the Airdrie to Bathgate committed scheme and the proposed pricing intervention to encourage passengers to travel during the shoulder peak periods form important elements of the overall strategy for the route.

6 Defined as the ratio of passengers to seated capacity provided. 7 Analysis undertaken during Baselining showed that crowding at present was confined to one or two peak arrivals into Edinburgh and Glasgow in the 0820 – 0840 time band. Outside of this time band trains had between a third and a half of available seated capacity free.

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Figure 5.1: Edinburgh – Glasgow Routes Interventions Prioritised by Timescale and Resource Scenario

Short to Medium to Immediate Medium Long Term Scenario Recommended Interventions Term Dependencies

A No interventions identified N/A

B Electrification of the Cumbernauld Housing growth on the Stirling corridor and car parking line, and new park & ride at pressures at Croy. Allandale

Marketing strategy to inform public of the alternative rail travel Completion of the committed Airdrie - Bathgate and Shott choices between Edinburgh and line improvements Glasgow

Additional services to deliver an Requirement for additional Edinburgh - Glasgow capacity - hourly fast Glasgow - Carstairs - lower cost solution Edinburgh

Glasgow South Western freight None upgrade

Enhancement of the Shotts route Delivery of housing growth, particularly in West Lothian. between Edinburgh and Glasgow Additional platform capacity required at Glasgow Central to introduce limited stop trains

Interventions Not Taken Forward Key Longer trains between Edinburgh and Glasgow Better use of capacity through service planning Change to the physical network 6tph between Edinburgh and Glasgow Change to rolling stock Other modes

Scottish Executive Edinburgh - Glasgow Interventions

Timescale for Interventions - Draft 11-Oct-05 j:\117897\timescale for intervention.xls There are some important points to note from the overall strategy shown in Figure 5.1: • If all the recommend service frequency interventions were implemented this would deliver 11tph in the medium to longer term between Edinburgh and Glasgow comprising 4tph on the Croy route, 4tph on the Airdrie – Bathgate route and 3tph between Glasgow Central and Edinburgh via Shotts (2tph) and Carstairs (1tph). Some of these improvements would be dependent on the delivery of plan-led growth (particularly on the Shotts route) and rising demand (the Carstairs route). The result would be a significant step change over the situation today and would deliver a major connectivity improvement to interaction and connectivity between Scotland’s two principal cities. Furthermore, it would provide significant service level improvements to catchments that presently do not have easy access to Edinburgh to Glasgow rail services. Passengers from West Lothian and Lanarkshire will have Airdrie – Bathgate services and passengers within the catchment of Glasgow Central High Level suburban services (for example, Ayrshire) will have 3tph hour to Edinburgh with a relatively convenient change of train (journey time is almost the same via Carstairs or an improved Shotts service when the walk time to Queen Street is taken into account). Passengers at key stations on the Shotts route will also have a much improved service, complementing Airdrie – Bathgate services in West Lothian. This strategy needs effective marketing to the travelling public to inform them of the most appropriate route for their journey and to ensure demand pressure is eased on the Croy route in the peak hours. It should be noted that only an 8tph service could be achieved in Scenario A although this would not negate the benefits of a more effective marketing strategy to inform travel choice. Further funding would be needed to achieve the remaining improvements. The marketing strategy for the Edinburgh – Glasgow would evolve as other routes are improved, and different travel choices become available.

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• In the short to medium term in Scenario B, it is recommended that the intervention to improve the Shotts route be developed further. This would offer a 2tph semi-fast service (calling perhaps at Uddingston, Shotts, West Calder, Livingston South and Haymarket). • A faster journey time of about an hour would be achieved. Some skip stopping would be required to maintain some level of service to other stations and plan-led housing growth in West Lothian may justify a dedicated West Calder – Edinburgh shuttle in the longer term. The scheme would require small scale incremental signalling and capacity improvements on the route and would best be supported by an upgrade of the GSW route to reduce the use of the Shotts route by Anglo-Scottish coal traffic. • The major constraint to delivering the scheme is platform availability at both Glasgow Central High Level and Edinburgh Waverley. We understand from Network Rail that after the construction of additional platform capacity for the Glasgow Airport services, there is no additional platform capacity without resorting to very expensive infrastructure solutions. The optimal solution would be to electrify the Whifflet route and divert the present 2tph services to Glasgow Central Low Level station turning back at Anderston (this intervention is discussed further in Chapter 10). This would provide the necessary platform capacity for the Shotts route enhancement as well as permitting an additional 1tph to operate to Kilmarnock (an important intervention discussed in Chapter 8). This forms a higher priority than the improvements via Motherwell and Carstairs, since investment in the Shotts route would deliver a greater step change in the rail service, and would support housing growth in West Lothian. Platform availability is also a constraint at Edinburgh Waverley. Whilst a bay platform at Haymarket is planned as an interim measure during Phase 1a of the Waverley Station improvements, this would be located on the north side of the station, and not readily accessible for the Shotts line. Consequently, a more detailed review of train paths into Waverley is needed. • To complement these improvements in Scenario B, it is recommended the intervention to enhance the Cumbernauld services and possibly develop a new park and ride at Allandale be further developed in the short to medium term. Additional services and car parking on the route would relieve crowding on the Croy route. Furthermore it would release capacity at Glasgow Queen Street High Level for additional services, principally to Stirling / Dunblane where crowding is forecast to grow in the future. These interventions are discussed further in Chapter 9. • Finally, in the medium to longer term in Scenario B, it may be necessary to provide a regular hourly Glasgow to Edinburgh via Carstairs service to cater for expanding city centre to city centre demand from Glasgow Central (and by implication Ayrshire). This will require the release of further capacity at Glasgow Central High Level. Possible solutions to free up sufficient platform capacity are discussed in Chapter 10. To achieve competitive journey times, the number of intermediate stops must be minimised, with trains timed to complement the existing longer distance trains from Glasgow Central to Edinburgh via Carstairs. Figure 5.2 overleaf illustrates the recommended interventions schematically showing their relationship to the present railway network and services.

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Figure 5.2: Edinburgh – Glasgow Routes (Present Network, Scottish Ministers’ Committed Schemes and Prioritised Recommended Interventions from SPA.

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5.8 The Consequences of Not Intervening

increased peak hour crowding on services via Croy and Falkirk High with associated impacts on road congestion; significant areas of plan-led growth, especially West Lothian, continuing to have an inadequate inter-urban service to both Glasgow and Edinburgh; the catchment of railway routes radiating from Glasgow Central remaining relatively isolated from direct services to Edinburgh with possible implications for future plan-led housing growth on the corridors to Ayr and Kilmarnock, as well as for Prestwick Airport growth; and no improvement of the interaction and connectivity between Scotland’s two principal cities and, thus, their success.

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6 Other Inter Urban Routes

6.1 Background

For the purposes of the SPA these were defined as the routes from Edinburgh and Glasgow to Aberdeen via Dundee and Inverness via Perth, as well as services between Aberdeen and Inverness. Part of this network is also important for freight: coal will continue to be conveyed from the Port of Hunterston to Longannet coal-fired power station via the reopened Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine route. The trend towards greater use of rail on the logistics trunk flow combined with recent authorisation to clear the loading gauge of route to the north east of Scotland from Mossend for high-cube deep sea containers, indicates a growing use of parts of the inter-urban network by intermodal freight. The Part 1 Report identified that the product offered to passengers on these routes is not always competitive to other modes in terms of journey time, frequency, arrival times and quality compared with other modes. There is also some role confusion on inter-urban passenger services between providing truly inter-urban services and also services to local stations. This has implications for the effectiveness of inter-urban passenger services in providing rail connections between Scotland’s City Regions to support their important economic role in the country.

6.2 Key Objectives Supported

In the future, other inter-urban routes could contribute to a number of the key thematic objectives. The most important interventions are to: • support plan-led growth / regeneration; • facilitate access to airports (directly via Edinburgh – Aberdeen / Perth services using EARL and indirectly to GARL); • achieve more sustainable patterns of freight movement (particularly to both Aberdeen and Inverness); • shift to more sustainable modes of transport; and • promote tourism (through access to the Highlands). They could also contribute to the following key spatially-specific policy objectives for rail: • provide competitive links between the Central Belt and other Scottish cities; and • strengthen the roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and tourist centres.

6.3 Main Issues

Certain issues on the rail network could prevent the other inter-urban routes contributing to delivering the identified key objectives and fulfilling their important role in the Scottish transport network. They are listed in Table 6.1 overleaf. The main issues highlighted in the table are:

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• limitations of the inter-urban product given the expected future growth in travel demand (particularly to and from Edinburgh) on both the Aberdeen and Inverness routes. Infrastructure constraints and the rolling stock quality were highlighted as key constraints. On city centre to city centre flows between Aberdeen / Inverness and Edinburgh / Glasgow, rail is still attractive to many passengers, but its attractiveness could be further improved by journey time reductions and improvements to the travelling environment. Although rolling stock quality was identified as a generic issue, it was highlighted as a specific constraint by the business community; • conflict between faster inter-urban services and local services linking the intermediate markets is a barrier to rail making adequate connections between the city regions; • poor service frequencies and slow journey times from Perth, particularly to Edinburgh where plan-led housing growth will increase the demand for travel to employment centres in the Central Belt; • poor interchange to the Far North and Kyle routes at Inverness in part caused by poor inter-urban service frequencies; • demand for local travel stimulated by plan-led housing growth around Inverness, Aberdeen and Dundee, as well as between Aberdeen and Inverness; and • freight capacity issues caused by increased demand for freight movement by rail due to developments such as the clearance of the loading gauge on the route to Aberdeen and beyond to Elgin to accommodate high cube, deep sea containers, the planned Raithes Farm freight terminal at Dyce north of Aberdeen and potential increased movement of biomass (both to Longannet and to possible new biomass power stations in Fife and Ayrshire). Our analysis assumes that the implementation of the committed rail schemes will overcome certain constraints to increasing the quantum of services and improving timetable flexibility over the routes: • the Waverley Station upgrade (Phase 1a) will provide additional platform capacity at the station and remodel the station throat so enabling up to 4 additional trains per hour to use the station. The SE has provisionally allocated these paths for the Airdrie-Bathgate scheme (2tph) and for extra services to Fife (2tph); and • the Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine scheme will remove Longannet coal traffic east of Polmont Junction (including across the Forth Bridge). The diversion of the Longannet coal traffic will have an impact on performance over the Greenhill to Stirling corridor, although this will be offset by the performance benefit from removing this traffic from the Polmont to Winchburgh corridor and over the Forth Bridge. It will also free up capacity to run extra trains from Fife into Edinburgh (taking advantage of the additional capacity provided by the Waverley station upgrade. Also, the SE confirmed funding for the scheme to enhance the loading gauge sufficient to carry high-cube, deep sea containers north from Mossend north to Aberdeen and Elgin in October 2005.

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Table 6.1: Main Issues and Long List of Interventions on Other Inter-Urban Routes

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions

A combination of these constraints on the Generic: Refurbish rolling stock to improve on- routes from Edinburgh and Glasgow to board environment, particularly for business Inverness and Aberdeen limit the potential to passengers, for example, more tables, plugs for increase frequency, improve journey time or lap-tops in standard class, better on-board offer a more attractive arrival time in refreshments. Edinburgh and Glasgow. IU-I01: Introduce hourly service between Perth Numbers of platforms at Glasgow Queen and Inverness – with trains adopting a skip-stop Street and their platform lengths (Platform 1 calling pattern to achieve faster journey times. The growing importance of Edinburgh, can only accommodate 3-car sets and only Faster journey time will help rail compete more Glasgow and Edinburgh Airport to the platforms 2, 6 and 7 can accommodate 6-car effectively with car drivers via the A9, and also Scottish economy will increase the demand trains) and the constraints listed for Issue make better use of existing line capacity. for business and leisure travel on the inter- EG-P2 below restrict further increases in Majority of trains from Inverness should be urban services from Aberdeen and frequencies. timetabled to Edinburgh, with trains timed to Inverness. However, a number of constraints connect with services between Glasgow and limit the scope to increase frequencies, Track layout south of Cowlairs Junction into Aberdeen at Perth. IU-P1 improve journey time or bring forward earliest Glasgow Queen Street causes timetabling arrival times into Edinburgh and Glasgow constraints for the 11-12tph in each direction. IU-I02/ ED-I08: Improved train frequencies (particularly from Inverness), which are not require an infrastructure solution to increase Current signalling capability at the ‘Carmuirs currently attractive for business travellers. capacity between Ladybank and Perth (possibly Triangle’ causes significant constraints. Arrival times to Inverness for business 1-2 passing loops depending on train travellers from the Central Belt are also Signalling headways of 5 minutes between frequencies), and other infrastructure unattractive. Haymarket and Inverkeithing (with only 1 enhancements north of Perth (possibly between train allowed across Forth Bridge in each Dalwhinnie and Newtonmore and Pitlochry to

direction at any one time) causes significant Dunkeld). constraints on capacity when combined with IU-I03: Improved frequency to Inverness via Fife inter-working with Fife Circle local services. is deliverable following the completion of the Trains must inter-work with stopping trains Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine link, although from Dunblane / Stirling west of Greenhill improved frequency to Inverness requires extra Upper Junction due to the lack of passing capacity. loops on the two-track railway, and local IU-I04: Introduce earlier departure / arrival times services via the Fife Circle. to Inverness to support forecast economic

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions growth in the Highlands. Additional rolling stock will need to be procured to deliver the improved 15 miles of single track between Ladybank train frequencies. and Hilton Jn near Perth is a significant constraint on capacity. IU-I05: Revise stopping pattern on the Aberdeen services, particularly to Edinburgh to Use of the Greenhill to Stirling route by reduce journey times and improve rail Longannet coal traffic after reopening of the competitiveness versus car. Trains could only Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine route until at call at the principal stations north of Dundee least 2016. (Edinburgh services), plus Perth & Stirling Sections of single track on Highland Main (Glasgow trains). Other trains will be introduced Line, between Perth and Inverness. or modified to serve the intermediate stations. Layout at Usan (south of Montrose) is single IU-I06/ED-I03: Introduce a new hourly service to track, and this creates a timetabling Dundee from Edinburgh operating semi-fast via constraint on the route, given the mixture of Kirkcaldy. Spare line capacity is delivered passenger and freight services. following the completion of the Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine scheme. Trains will call at stations Requirement for a number of inter-urban between Dundee and Markinch. The service services to also provide the core service to would allow journey times for Aberdeen services local stations along their route, particularly to be improved. on services to Inverness, which increases journey time. Certain stations have very low IU-I07: Improved rail service between Aberdeen levels of demand such as Balmossie, Barry and Inverness to support planned economic and Links and Golf Street in Tayside. housing growth. Additional infrastructure capacity required if regular hourly service is introduced.

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Car parks are generally full on the route limiting the potential for rail to capture Generic: Examine the scope for bus – rail feeder growth in the demand for commuting, First ScotRail data indicates existing car services to the principal stations, particularly if business and leisure travel to Glasgow and parks have limited spare capacity and the residential densities are relatively high. IU-P2 Edinburgh ( Aberdeen and Inverness to a scope for viable bus feeder routes to stations Generic: Introduce additional parking provision, lesser extent). This is particularly important outside the principal population centres is particularly at stations where low density where housing growth is planned and at very limited. residential development reduces the stations that serve a wide Park & Ride attractiveness of bus-based Park & Ride. market. The rail alignment is not direct via Fife or IU-I08 / RRN-I03: Hourly service from Inverness Dunblane, and trains must inter-work with to Edinburgh all day would be supplemented by stopping services. Journey times are not additional hourly peak trains operating semi-fast competitive with M90, and the maximum via Kirkcaldy to support planned commuting frequency of service offered via the growth from north Fife and Perth. Housing growth in the Perth area will cause Ladybank route is just 2 hourly. The main IU-I02: Improved train frequencies require an a growth in demand for travel into Glasgow constraints on improvement (described in IU-P3 infrastructure solution to increase capacity and Edinburgh but rail services from Perth more detail in IU-P1 above) are the long between Ladybank and Perth (possibly 1-2 to Edinburgh are inadequate. Ladybank – Hilton Jn single track section, passing loops depending on train frequencies), signalling headways between Haymarket and and other infrastructure enhancements north of Inverkeithing and inter-working with slower Perth (possibly between Dalwhinnie and freight and passenger services. Newtonmore and Pitlochry to Dunkeld).

Rolling stock does not offer a good working Generic: Refurbish rolling stock to improve on- Rolling stock quality is not attractive for environment for business travellers (such as board environment, particularly for business business travellers (who will be an plugs for laptops etc). passengers, for example, more tables, plugs for lap-tops in standard class, better on-board IU-P4 increasingly important component of the Inter-working of Class 158s with Class 170s refreshments – higher quality on-board should inter-urban market with the development of on the Inverness route will worsen quality offer better competition with road. the city centres). and are likely to be insufficient quality to attract business travellers. Interchange at Inverness station to rural Timing for connecting services is not IU-I01: Introduction of an hourly service between IU-P5 services is poor, which exacerbates their particularly convenient to encourage onward Perth and Inverness, will improve interchange for geographic peripherality. rail journeys. onward passengers north of Inverness.

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IU-I07: Improved rail service between Aberdeen and Inverness to support planned economic and housing growth. Additional infrastructure Significant new housing development is capacity required if regular hourly service is planned around the main towns between Trains depart 1-2 hours, although departure introduced. Inverness and Aberdeen especially in times are not regular. Capacity constraints Moray. New residents will need to access IU-I09: Deliver Invernet Phase 2 (more frequent IU-P6 prevent hourly services from operating; much the services and economies of Inverness rail services between Inverness and Elgin) to of the route is single track with crossing and Aberdeen. The present rail service support planned housing growth on the Moray points mainly in stations. frequency between Aberdeen and Inverness Firth. less than hourly and sometimes two hourly. IU-I10: Improve bus services on the A96 corridor between Inverness and Elgin to support planned population growth for the Moray Firth IU-I11: Review timetabling of freight and passenger trains to confirm there is sufficient Opening of Raithes Farm freight terminal Single track route north of Aberdeen without capacity to accommodate forecast freight traffic. IU-P7 will increase the demand for freight paths crossing points except at Dyce station. Implement proposed gauge enhancement to W10 between Aberdeen and Dyce. clearance to Elgin, and expand terminal capacity if required. IU-I12: New rail service between Perth and Arbroath would support housing growth planned for Dundee, and improving the rail service for Dundee’s travel to work catchment. Generic: New station at Dundee West to support Lack of local rail service of sufficient Growth in housing around Dundee will housing growth planned for Dundee frequency to be attractive for commuting and stimulate demand for travel into Dundee as IU-P8 leisure travel into Dundee – current rail Generic: Stations improvements to enhance the well as other towns and cities for service from many local stations in Tayside is waiting environment at Arbroath, Montrose, employment and leisure purposes. relatively low. Carnoustie, Broughty Ferry and Monifieth could encourage additional trips by rail. IU-I13: Introduce new / improved bus services between Carnoustie and Dundee to improve public transport to the residential areas along this route to support plan-led housing and economic

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growth. This intervention would allow train services to intermediate stations to be reduced.

IU-I14: Introduction of enhanced bus links from Aberdeen to Inverurie and Stonehaven to support housing growth IU-I15: Improve rail frequencies serving Aberdeen travel to work area through the introduction of Aberdeen Phase 2. Phase 2 requires the Aberdeen to Inverness Growth in housing around Aberdeen will Lack of local rail service of sufficient service to be enhanced to hourly and extending stimulate demand for travel into Aberdeen IU-P9 frequency to be attractive for commuting and trains to Stonehaven. In addition it proposes as well as other towns and cities for leisure travel into Aberdeen. extending 1tph from Edinburgh or Glasgow from employment and leisure purposes. Dyce to Inverurie. IU-I16: Improve rail service that serves Aberdeen travel to work area through the introduction of Phase 2. This builds on Phase 2 by adding a dedicated half-hourly service between Stonehaven and Inverurie to deliver 4tph. Seasonal overcrowding due to tourism on IU-I01: Introduction of an hourly service between Highland Main Line is popular with tourists the Highland Main Line will worsen as the Perth and Inverness would help alleviate IU-P10 causing overcrowding, in spite of some train tourist industry in Scotland continues to seasonal overcrowding. formations being strengthened. grow. Possible construction of bio-mass electricity IU-I17: Construction of additional passing loops Several sections of the Highland Main Line generation plants at Glenrothes and Killoch with capability to accommodate freight trains, are single track, and there may be IU-P11 in Ayrshire will increase demand for train supporting the higher train frequencies using the insufficient capacity to accommodate the paths on the Highland Main Line and other Highland Main Line. additional freight movements. routes.

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6.4 Long List of Interventions

Table 6.1 includes the long list of interventions generated, mapped against the issues that each addresses. The table is relatively self-explanatory but some key themes within the list of interventions should be highlighted: • Providing an improved inter-urban product for passengers to both Inverness and Aberdeen from the Central Belt through the removal of certain capacity constraints that prevent frequency improvements (such as the long single track section between Ladybank and Perth). Making best use of capacity created by the Waverley Station upgrade and the diversion of Longannet coal traffic away from the Forth Bridge and separating out the local service role from the inter-urban role where it is feasible and economic to do so also form key themes. The improved product (delivered by a number of interventions) would consist of: - an hourly service between Perth and Inverness with a skip-stop calling pattern to allowing rail to compete more effectively with road. This would part utilise the first of the additional train paths to Fife created by the diversion of Longannet coal trains from the Forth Bridge and the Waverley station upgrade. Increased frequencies to Inverness would also address the issue of long interchange times to rural services to the north, especially if coupled with an improvement to the station amenities; - Inverness services predominantly going to Edinburgh but with timed connections to Aberdeen – Glasgow inter-urban services at Perth with improvements to the station environment at this key interchange; - Although the existing size of the rail markets to Glasgow and Edinburgh are similar, the majority of extra services from Inverness are routed towards Edinburgh, since there are no alternative services. This intervention would also improve rail connectivity from Perth to Edinburgh; - earlier departure / arrival times on Inverness – Central Belt services in both directions to encourage business travel by rail; and - a revised stopping pattern on Aberdeen – Glasgow / Edinburgh services to reduce journey times and improve competitiveness versus car. Edinburgh services would only call at the principal stations north of Dundee (with skip stopping to serve the intermediate locations) running fast south to Edinburgh (possibly via Cowdenbeath route, which with enhancement would be faster). Consideration should be given to the peak calling patterns, since additional stops may need to be introduced to meet the continued commuting growth from Fife into Edinburgh. Glasgow services would also call at Perth and Stirling south of Dundee. A new hourly semi-fast service would be introduced between Dundee and Edinburgh to serve the principal intermediate stations (using the second of the additional train paths to Fife created by the committed schemes). Dundee would therefore become an important on the network and would require improvements to the station environment.

• Subject to the realisation of planned housing growth in Perth, the introduction of an additional peak hourly service from Perth to Edinburgh would provide 2tph for commuters (including the hourly service from Inverness to Edinburgh), thus providing a significantly more attractive frequency and journey time than the current service. • Introduction of a regular hourly service between Aberdeen and Inverness to improve access to each city from the intermediate towns where there is future plan-led housing growth. Subject to the level of housing growth delivered in Moray this could be supplemented by additional peak services between Inverness and Elgin.

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• Public transport improvements to improve opportunities for commuting into Dundee and Aberdeen, some of which are rail-based. • Provision of additional capacity for freight to serve Raithes Farm and other generators of freight traffic on this part of the network.

6.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment

6.5.1 Interventions not taken forward at shortlisting During shortlisting (see Appendix A), a number of the long listed interventions were not taken forward: • Intervention IU-I09 – the improvement of train frequencies between Inverness and Elgin was not taken forward partly because of its infrastructure requirements west of Elgin and because it would not deliver the size of benefits that would be achieved by the intervention to introduce an hourly service between Inverness and Aberdeen. It was also felt that first introducing the hourly service between the two cities would help to establish a stronger public transport market to towns on the route. In the future, this may justify revisiting further frequency improvements on the route. • Intervention IU-I10 – the improvement of bus services on the A96 corridor between Inverness and Elgin was not taken forward as an alternative to Invernet Phase 2 because of the limited benefits it would deliver when implemented in parallel to an hourly train service between Aberdeen and Inverness. • Intervention IU-I14 – the introduction of enhanced bus links between Inverurie, Aberdeen and Stonehaven were not taken forward because the bus solution is unlikely to offer a competitive journey time. A previous study showed that both options for Aberdeen Crossrail would deliver higher benefits than the bus solution.

6.5.2 Interventions not taken forward after STAG Part 1 assessment The following interventions were not taken forward after completion of the STAG Part 1 assessment (see Appendix B): • IU-I12 – the introduction of a new stopping rail service providing a more regular service to local stations between Perth, Dundee and Arbroath (along with the opening of a station at Dundee West) was not taken forward. Whilst offering some benefits and meeting certain key objectives for rail, the financial subsidy identified in earlier work could be understated because it did not take full account of optimism bias on operating costs. Also, there is a high frequency bus service on the parallel bus corridor across Dundee suggesting it may be difficult for a rail service to be competitive and achieve the revenue forecasts claimed. Furthermore, the appraisal does not appear to assess the impact of a competitive responsive from the bus operators. Focussing on developing the bus service as the main public transport provision on the corridor through more bus prioritisation and associated measures would be a lower cost option and deliver significantly greater benefits. This is a situation where the densities and volumes do not best suit rail and other modes would be more effective at providing a public transport service. It would also provide the opportunity to consider closing the intermediate stations with current low usage on the route offering cost savings to the rail industry that could be used to fund enhancements elsewhere. • IU-I16 – Aberdeen Crossrail Phase 3 was not taken forward because of its high costs to the public sector when compared to the benefits delivered (principally access and social inclusion).

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The intervention would deliver an additional 2tph between Inverurie and Stonehaven along with the opening of three new stations including one at Aberdeen Airport. The intervention could only be implemented after Aberdeen Crossrail Phase 2, which itself would build on the First ScotRail franchise’s plans to extend the Aberdeen – Inverness services to Stonehaven (Phase 1). Earlier work shows that Phase 2 delivers the greatest ratio of additional passengers per pound of subsidy. Phase 2 assumes an hourly Aberdeen – Inverness service is in place and continues to run to Stonehaven and extends the hourly Edinburgh / Glasgow services to Inverurie. This would provide 2tph between Stonehaven and Inverurie. Earlier studies showed that adding a further 2tph with a dedicated shuttle between the two stations in Phase 3, along with opening new stations, increases the funding requirement per passenger journey.

6.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions

The remaining interventions performed strongly in their STAG Part 1 assessments (see Appendix B). Our recommended approach to taking forward the interventions is summarised in Figure 6.1. In addition to the interventions shown in Figure 6.1, the implementation of the additional hourly service to Dundee, facilitated by the improvements at Waverley and the Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine scheme are some of the most important priorities. Furthermore, the generic interventions including selected improvements to key interchange stations, additional parking and improved rolling stock quality should also form high priorities. The recent rolling stock improvements with better catering facilities introduced by First ScotRail on the Inverness route form a useful first step. Figure 6.1: Other Inter-Urban Routes Interventions Prioritised by Timescale and Resource Scenario

Short to Medium to Immediate Medium Long Term Scenario Recommended Interventions Term Dependencies

A Dundee - Carnoustie bus services None

B Aberdeen - Edinburgh / Glasgow journey time improvements with a Completion of Edinburgh Waverley Phase 1 and Stirling modified calling pattern. - Alloa - Kincardine, delivery of line speed Edinburgh services possibly via improvements Cowdenbeath with line speed improvements

New hourly service from Dundee Completion of Edinburgh Waverley Phase 1 and Stirling to Edinburgh possibly via - Alloa - Kincardine, housing growth in Fife, revisions to Kirkcaldy the stopping pattern on the Edinburgh services

Hourly service to Inverness from Continued economic growth of Inverness as an Edinburgh and capacity important City-Region, and planned housing growth in enhancements on the Highland Perth and Fife, delivery of capacity enhancements Main Line

Hourly service to Perth from Edinburgh, and capacity Continued delivery of housing growth in Perth and north enhancements between Ladybank Fife, delivery of capacity enhancements and Perth

Aberdeen - Inverness and Delivery of housing growth in Aberdeen travel to work Aberdeen Crossrail Phase 2, and area and the Moray Firth, delivery of capacity gauge clearance enhancements

Review of timetabling for freight and passenger trainsto confirm Freight demand may increase following the upgrading there is sufficient capacity to of the Elgin route to W10 capability accommodate forecast freight traffic growth

Interventions Not Taken Forward Key Better use of capacity through service planning Change to the physical network Perth - Arbroath service Change to rolling stock Other modes Aberdeen Crossrail Phase 3

Scottish Executive Inter Urban Interventions

Timescale for Interventions - Draft 11-Oct-05 j:\117897\timescale for intervention.xls

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There are some important points to note from the overall strategy shown in Figure 6.1: • Without devoting additional resources to these routes, there is limited potential to deliver improvements. In Scenario A the only immediate improvements that could be achieved is improving access to stations by other modes (car parking provision and integration with bus feeders) and further improving the Dundee – Carnoustie bus service (as an alternative to rail provision on this local corridor). • These are important improvements in their own rights but do little to enhance the inter- urban network or meet some of the key objectives for the role of rail and importance attached to the City Regions in future Scottish economic development. Scenario B provides the route to achieving this change. • The interventions to deliver the package of improvements to the inter-urban product for passengers to Inverness and Aberdeen from the Central Belt (described in detail in Section 6.4 above) performed strongly when assessed. The focus on accelerated hourly services operated with higher quality rolling stock focussing on interchange hubs at Perth (between Glasgow and Edinburgh services), Dundee (for the semi-fast service south to Edinburgh) and Inverness (for Far North services) was essential to achieving this strong STAG Part 1 performance. The importance of the Aberdeen trains running non-stop south of Dundee outside the peak periods is important; this could achieve journey time savings of 10-15 minutes. The intermediate stations would be served by a stopping service to Dundee from Edinburgh. It is therefore recommended that these interventions be developed further. This is the most important spatial intervention for the inter-urban routes. Consideration should be given to the requirements of freight when doing this (especially the possibility of growth in container traffic to North East Scotland and the potential for biomass traffic in the future). • The possibility of routeing Aberdeen - Edinburgh services via the potentially faster Cowdenbeath route should also be examined (although the route would need some upgrading). The improvements do require delivery of the Waverley station Phase 1 upgrade and diversion of Longannet coal traffic via the reopened Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine route. Furthermore, the business case for the Inverness improvements is likely to be dependent on achieving plan-led housing growth around Inverness, Perth and within Fife, as well as the continued economic growth of Inverness and Edinburgh. Improvements to the Inverness route form the next most important priority after enhancements to the Aberdeen services. • An hourly skip-stop service between Inverness and Perth is recommended to improve rail connectivity between the Highlands, the central belt, and Edinburgh / Glasgow. Further work is needed to identify the potential calling pattern for the service, and the additional infrastructure requirements needed to support the more frequent services. Capacity improvements between Ladybank and Perth would also be required. • Subject to plan-led housing growth around Aberdeen and in towns between Aberdeen and Inverness, it may also be necessary to implement the hourly service between the two cities in conjunction with Aberdeen Crossrail Phase 2. These interventions should form a lower priority than the improvements to the inter-urban routes from Edinburgh to Aberdeen / Inverness.

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• In the medium to longer term in Scenario B, consideration should be given to introducing an additional hourly service from Perth – Edinburgh for commuters. This is dependent on plan-led housing growth in Perth (encouraging more commuting) and Fife, and would complement the improvements to service frequencies achieved by the short to medium enhancement to Inverness – Perth – Edinburgh services. Road congestion in the Central Belt will increase the attractiveness of rail for commuting in the future and the short to medium term enhancements will help to grow the rail travel market from Perth. Since the demand for an additional commuter service from Perth to Edinburgh is dependent on new housing, it forms a lower priority than the proposed improvements to the Inverness to Edinburgh service. Figure 6.2 overleaf illustrates the recommended interventions schematically showing their relationship to the present railway network and services.

6.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening

compromises rail’s ability to contribute to the economic success of Scotland’s City Regions, particularly if road and motorway congestion in the Central Belt worsens;

rail services continue to have limitations in terms of quality, frequency, journey time and morning arrival time; jeopardise other objectives including access to Edinburgh Airport where rail could play an important role in facilitating the planned growth at the airport.

future freight capacity could be compromised by lack of investment in the passenger network.

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Figure 6.2: Other Inter-Urban Routes (Present Network, Scottish Ministers’ Committed Schemes and Prioritised Recommended Interventions from SPA)

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7 Edinburgh Suburban Network

7.1 Background

The network of local services around Edinburgh has grown in recent years in response to the success of the city’s economy and housing growth in the surrounding area. The Edinburgh suburban network includes the routes to North Berwick, Fife, Stirling / Dunblane, Bathgate and Newcraighall. This network will benefit from four of the committed schemes: the Waverley railway line to Tweedbank serving the central Borders; the extension to Glasgow and increase in frequency of Bathgate services, the additional capacity arising from Edinburgh Waverley enhancement and the diversion of Longannet coal traffic from the Forth Bridge to the Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine route.

7.2 Key Objectives Supported

In the future, the Edinburgh local routes could contribute to a number of the key thematic objectives for rail of which the most important for identifying specific interventions are to: • support plan-led growth (particularly connecting the successful Edinburgh economy to its catchment area for workers) and regeneration; • facilitate access to airports (directly to Edinburgh Airport via Fife and Stirling / Dunblane services using EARL); • foster social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private car; and • improve integration between transport services and modes. They could also contribute to the following key spatially-specific policy objectives for rail: • facilitate plan-led growth in Edinburgh, Fife, Lothians and the Borders; and • strengthen the roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and tourist centres.

7.3 Main Issues

Certain issues on the rail network could prevent the Edinburgh local routes contributing to delivering the identified key objectives and fulfilling their important role in the Scottish transport network. They are listed in Table 7.1 overleaf. The main issues highlighted in the table are: • emerging crowding on peak trains from Fife (where there is already some standing on a few peak hour trains) due to the growth of Edinburgh Airport and plan-led housing development; • the lack of direct rail connections to some locations of plan-led housing growth in Fife and Clackmannanshire; • crowding emerging on peak hour Bathgate services despite the frequency improvements arising from the Airdrie – Bathgate scheme, along with the associated risks to performance if the Airdrie services continue to operate across Glasgow to Helensburgh and Balloch; • crowding also emerging on a few peak hour Borders Rail services from Newcraighall / Tweedbank;

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• constraints on improving frequencies to North Berwick to serve plan-led housing growth, although these constraints could be removed if Cockenzie closed, and the associated coal trains ceased; • freight capacity issues caused by the movement of coal and potential growth in other commodities. Our analysis assumes that the implementation of the committed rail schemes will overcome certain constraints to increasing the quantum of services and improving timetable flexibility over the routes: • the Waverley Station upgrade (Phase 1a) will provide additional platform capacity at the station and remodel the station throat so enabling up to 4 additional trains per hour to use the station. The SE has provisionally allocated these paths for the Airdrie-Bathgate scheme (2tph) and for extra services to Fife (2tph); • the Airdrie – Bathgate scheme will remove constraints on service frequencies eastwards from Bathgate by redoubling and electrifying the route and removing the single lead junction at Newbridge; and • the Stirling – Alloa – Kincardine scheme will remove Longannet coal traffic east of Polmont Junction (including across the Forth Bridge). The diversion of the Longannet coal traffic will have an impact on performance over the Greenhill to Stirling corridor, although this will be offset by the performance benefit from removing this traffic from the Polmont to Winchburgh corridor and over the Forth Bridge. It will also free up capacity to run extra trains from Fife into Edinburgh (taking advantage of the additional capacity provided by the Waverley station upgrade). Overall the committed schemes facilitate some major increases in frequency and the availability of rail services on the Edinburgh local routes, with the exception of the .

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Table 7.1: Main Issues and Long List of Interventions on Edinburgh Local Routes

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions Generic: Strengthen existing rolling stock Present shortage of rolling stock means formations on the Fife Circle to make better use some units are short-formed (2 or 3-car of existing line capacity. units) in the peak periods. Generic: Introduce peak pricing to encourage Congestion on the Forth road bridge means journeys during the shoulder peak period to rail attracts a high mode share for centre-to- optimising existing line capacity. centre trips. ED-I01: Restructure the Fife timetable following Average load factors on local Fife commuter Platforms lengths are restricted to 6-cars at diversion of Longannet coal trains via Stirling. trains are already close to 100% with some some stations so constraining options for This would allow two additional passenger train passengers required to stand in certain platform lengthening. services per hour to operate. trains. Further housing growth is planned in ED-I02: Split the existing Fife Circle trains to Fife and growth of air passenger throughput Frequency improvements are constrained by improve timetable flexibility, and revise the ED-P1 at the new Edinburgh Airport station will signalling headways of 5 minutes between Cowdenbeath services to terminate at increase this load factor further (especially to Haymarket and Inverkeithing (with only 1 Levenmouth via the freight-only line from Methil. the north of Edinburgh Airport station where train allowed across Forth Bridge in each load factors will be just over 120% by 2026) direction at any one time), which causes ED-I03/ IU-I06: Operate a new hourly service but there are presently constraints on train significant constraints on capacity when from Edinburgh to Dundee with a semi-fast lengthening and increasing frequency. combined with inter-working with inter-urban calling pattern. Trains would serve the busiest service. stations in Fife, and serve intermediate stations Local Fife trains currently operate as north of Markinch to Dundee allowing improved ‘circular’ services. This imposes timetabling journey times on the inter-urban trains from constraints given the requirement to inter- Aberdeen. work with longer distance trains and freight. ED-I04: Improved signalling Haymarket to Inverkeithing to improve timetable resilience.

Generic: Enhance bus links from Glenrothes Some locations for planned housing growth Remoteness of Glenrothes from Glenrothes town centre to Glenrothes with Thornton station in Fife, Central and Clackmannanshire are with Thornton station. ED-P2 not presently directly served by passenger (current service is only hourly). Levenmouth is not rail served although a rail services from Edinburgh and areas Generic: Enhance existing bus service from disused freight line exists from Thornton planned for employment growth in Edinburgh Levenmouth to Glenrothes with Thornton

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions outside the city centre. North Junction to Methil. Station (current frequency is 3/hour, with relatively long journey times). Alloa will only have passenger services to Glasgow despite its relatively close proximity ED-I02: Split the existing Fife Circle trains to to Edinburgh. There are no passenger improve timetable flexibility, and revise the services to Clackmannan or Kincardine. Cowdenbeath services to terminate at Levenmouth via the freight-only line from Methil. No rail services to Leith / Grantown, and limited services to Edinburgh Park. ED-I05: Re-open the Grangemouth branch line for passenger trains to serve the existing Limited rail service to serve major proposed population catchment and reduce the need to housing at Auchterarder. drive to Polmont and Falkirk. Generic: Bus feeder from Grangemouth to Polmont to improve access to the local rail network. ED-I06: Opportunity to introduce a passenger service from Alloa to Edinburgh via the freight- only line to serve the planned housing growth areas in Clackmannanshire. Line speed may need to be improved, and capacity enhanced, particularly across the Forth Bridge and the approach to Waverley. Intervention would also require the construction of a south to west Charlestown chord, and could start from Stirling to deliver wider benefits. Generic: Bus feeder service from Alloa and Kincardine to Dunfermline for interchange with services on the Fife Circle. Generic: Construction of a new station at Greenloaning / Blackford to support housing growth north of Dunblane. Station could replace the existing station at Gleneagles, and be served by extending one of the Dunblane trains

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions to Perth and improving the attractiveness of interchanges at Perth and Stirling Generic: Peak hour services must be operated in 6-car formations to control crowding levels, Passenger overcrowding on a limited number even though train frequencies will increase. of peak period Bathgate services will worsen, Platform lengths at Edinburgh Waverley and ED-P3 due to the additional demand arising from the at other stations served by the services Generic: Introduce peak pricing to encourage frequency improvement after reopening through to central Glasgow. journeys during the shoulder peak period thus through to Airdrie. optimise existing line capacity.

ED-I07: Review timetabling of existing services to improve resilience, and reduce the potential risk for train delays. Trains could be split at Potential for worsening performance on Lack of capacity for turning back services in central Glasgow using a turnback facility near services from Bathgate due to their extension Central Glasgow. Charing Cross. If there are performance ED-P4 through Airdrie and Central Glasgow to Economies of rolling stock from through benefits from terminating the Airdrie – Bathgate Helensburgh and Balloch. running. trains in central Glasgow, the existing Helensburgh / Balloch trains could operate to other destinations in east Glasgow (for example, Cumbernauld).

High 3-hour peak loadings on services from Generic: Introduce peak pricing to encourage journeys during the shoulder peak period thus Borders Rail through Newcraighall suggest Platform lengths at Edinburgh Waverley and that if the peaked nature of Edinburgh optimise existing line capacity. ED-P5 at other stations served by the services. commuting is repeated on this route then 1 or Generic: Doubling the track between Portobello

2 peak trains will be significantly Junction and Niddrie Junction would improve overcrowded. the flexibility of timetable planning.

Car parks are generally full limiting the Generic: Improve quality of bus / rail potential for rail to capture growth in demand interchanges in Fife. First ScotRail data indicates existing parking ED-P6 for commuting and leisure travel to Edinburgh (and to Glasgow on the Airdrie – Bathgate availability is very limited at most stations. Generic: Improve the quality of bus / rail route). This is particularly important where interchange in Edinburgh, and examine the housing growth is planned between Airdrie scope to restructure bus routes once Edinburgh

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions and Edinburgh and in Fife. Tram Lines 1 and 2 have been completed given the greater dispersal of employment in Edinburgh. Generic: New station at Kirkcaldy East to improve access to the rail network, and reduce pressure on Kirkcaldy. Generic: New station at Wormit to improve access to the rail network from North Fife. Generic: Construct a new station at Bannockburn to serve the proposed residential catchment and provide an attractive Park & Ride site for motorists using the M9. Generic: Construct a new station at Causeway to serve the proposed residential catchment and provide an attractive Park & Ride site for motorists using the M9. Generic: Construct a new station at Cowie to serve the proposed residential catchment and provide an attractive Park & Ride site for motorists using the M9. Generic: Construct a new station at Winchburgh to serve the 3,000 - 5,000 new houses and offer opportunities for strategic Park & Ride. Generic: Development of a strategic park & ride facility at Musselburgh to alleviate parking constraints, particularly at Waverley to serve East Lothian and east Edinburgh.

External connectivity to other useful Single track branch from Ladybank to Perth ED-I08/IU-I02: Increase the capacity of the ED-P7 interchange stations, such as Perth, is restricts service frequency to 1 train every 2 Ladybank to Perth route by constructing 1-2 relatively poor. hours. passing loops. Additional capacity would allow

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions train frequencies to Perth to be improved. ED-I09: Upgrade the Edinburgh South Suburban line for passenger trains. Continued use of the Edinburgh Suburban Line for coal traffic to Cockenzie power Timetable conflicts at Haymarket West ED-I10/ EG-I12/ GSW–I09: Increase line station (to 2016 but unclear beyond) and for Junction between freight trains moving onto capacity for the Glasgow South West route via ED-P8 other freight flows via Millerhill to the ECML the Edinburgh Suburban Line and services Dumfries. Current capacity constraints on the creates conflicts at Haymarket West towards Glasgow and Fife. GSW mean some coal trains are forced to use Junction. the ECML, and are routed via the Shotts line and Millerhill. Coal trains originating from Fife pass through Haymarket West Junction. Generic: Construction of additional passing loops between Monktonhall Junction and Drem Junction to improve timetabling flexibility. ED-I11: Operate 2tph to North Berwick all day, since the current daytime frequency of 1tph on Single track branch line to North Berwick, the weekdays is inadequate. number of local stations on the ECML west ED-I12: Re-open the Longniddry to Haddington of Drem, the lack of loops (other than at Timetabling of North Berwick services, which branch line to improve rail access to this Prestonpans in the Up direction) and the will remain important due to continued settlement. location of Drem station on the main line ED-P9 housing growth along the route, impose a rather than the branch line causes ED-I13: Upgrade the existing rail connections significant constraint on the operation of the timetabling and capacity constraints on from Blindwells to the ECML for passenger ECML to Drem. ECML given the journey time differential of services, although the amount of adjacent 15 minutes between branch and intercity housing is very limited. services. Generic: Expand existing car parking facilities at Longniddry to encourage park & ride trips from Haddington. ED-I14: Introduce an express bus service from North Berwick to supplement the hourly weekday off-peak service frequency.

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions ED-I04: Improved signalling on the Forth Bridge between Dalmeny and Inverkeithing to improve Signalling headways of 5 minutes between timetable frequency and timetable resilience. Expansion of opencast mining in Fife with the Haymarket and Inverkeithing (with only 1 requirement for ‘export’ to the English market Generic: Construction of the Charleston chord ED-P10 train allowed across Forth Bridge in each will increase demand for freight paths direction at any one time), to deliver improved operational flexibility for coal southbound. traffic originating from Longannet.

ED-I15: Removal of passenger services to accommodate additional coal traffic. Possible construction of bio-mass electricity Connections from Redford Junction towards ED-I16: Upgrade single track sections from generation plants at Glenrothes and Killoch in Markinch / Kirkcaldy are single track, and ED-P11 Redford Junction towards Markinch and Ayrshire will increase demand for train paths there may be insufficient capacity for Kirkcaldy to increase line capacity for freight. on the Highland Main Line and other routes. additional freight.

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7.4 Long List of Interventions

Table 7.1 includes the long list of interventions generated, mapped against the issues that each addresses. The table is relatively self-explanatory but some key themes within the list of interventions should be highlighted: • A mix of interventions to both address future crowding on Fife Circle services and to improve access to rail from areas of plan-led housing growth in the county comprising: - restructuring of the railway timetable through Fife. We are proposing that two additional paths released through the committed schemes could be used for the additional hourly Dundee – Edinburgh semi-fast service via Kirkcaldy, the introduction of hourly Inverness services, plus the possible future introduction of additional peak commuter services to Perth described in the last chapter. This would provide some additional capacity through Fife and improve rail connections to the north, especially to Perth and Inverness. This would be complemented by a restructuring of the Fife Circle timetable involving breaking the circular service. This would enable the reinstatement of services to Levenmouth (1tph via Kirkcaldy and 1tph via Cowdenbeath), and help to deliver improved timetable reliability in central Scotland; - the longer term possibility of developing a public transport from Alloa / Kincardine to Edinburgh, which could eventually be rail-based if Longannet coal traffic ceased and demand grew sufficiently. • Splitting the new Edinburgh – Glasgow via Bathgate service from Glasgow electric services to Helensburgh and Balloch if a more detailed operational assessment indicates there are performance benefits from restructuring the Airdrie to Bathgate service to operate from central Glasgow. However, this is a variation of the committed scheme to be introduced by the Scottish Ministers, and the benefits of any alternative scheme would need to be demonstrated in operational terms. • Potential use of capacity freed when Cockenzie power station closes for introduction of an additional hourly off-peak service to North Berwick or Dunbar. • Provision of sufficient capacity for freight growth including developing the GSW as an alternative freight route for Anglo-Scottish coal currently routed through Edinburgh (discussed in more detail in Chapter 13). There is also some overlap with some of the interventions identified in the last chapter, which also benefit local travel into Edinburgh. Those are the additional services from Perth and the restructuring of services southwards from Dundee to create a separate semi-fast service to facilitate faster Edinburgh – Aberdeen inter-urban service journey times.

7.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment

7.5.1 Interventions not taken forward at shortlisting During shortlisting (see Appendix A), a number of the long listed interventions were not taken forward: • Intervention ED-I05 – the intervention to re-open the Grangemouth branch to passenger services was not taken forward on the grounds of its likely poor business case and the difficulties of providing an operational solution other than a shuttle service to Falkirk Grahamston. A bus based feeder to Polmont station combined with the provision of additional car parking was felt to offer better value for money and provide a better connection.

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• Intervention ED-I12 – the proposal to reopen the Longniddry to Haddington branch line was not taken forward because the catchment is not dense enough to attract sufficient passengers to cover the capital costs of reopening. The additional services would adversely affect capacity and reliability east of Edinburgh Waverley, and could restrict the opportunity to deliver frequency increases to North Berwick, or a new local service to Dunbar. More car parking at Longniddry would provide a more affordable alternative to this intervention; • Intervention – ED-13 – upgrading the link from the ECML to Blindwells was not taken forward for shortlisting, since the level of new housing proposed is relatively small, and there could be wider performance implications for the ECML; • Intervention ED-I15 – the removal of passenger services to accommodate coal traffic was not taken forward because of the likely impact it would have on the network of local services around Edinburgh that are crucial to the city’s economic success. There are alternative solutions, including the routeing of Anglo-Scottish coal traffic via the GSW (intervention ED-I10).

7.5.2 Interventions not taken forward after STAG Part 1 assessment The following interventions were not taken forward after completion of the STAG Part 1 assessment (see Appendix B): • ED-I09 – the proposals for rail services on the Edinburgh South Suburban line would require new stations and current freight-only route to be upgraded. This is already a busy route for Anglo-Scottish freight so the capital costs should not be underestimated. The assessment of operational feasibility report prepared for the City of Edinburgh Council identified a number of constraints affecting key parts of the network, including Haymarket and Waverley stations. There would also be journey time implications if existing services were re-routed via the ESSL. Although some of the options have a positive Net Present Value, the patronage and revenue forecasts do not take account of the other transport schemes that could abstract some patronage, most notably the proposed Edinburgh Line 3 tram scheme. The rail service would compete with a high frequency bus service from many of the origins served by the ESSL (there are up to 4-6 buses per hour on most routes). Since the estimated capital costs range from £15m to £31m, the scheme’s benefits are relatively small compared to its capital costs. • ED-I13 – extending one of the trains that currently terminate at Dunblane to Perth was rejected after shortlisting. The number of proposed houses at Blackford is relatively small, and there is insufficient demand using the existing services between Perth and Dunblane to justify the introduction of additional services. • ED-I14 – the lower cost alternative of supplementing the existing hourly North Berwick service with an express bus was not taken forward because of the likely journey time by road compared to train, which would limit its attractiveness and therefore the resulting economic benefits. Whilst the alternative rail option would at present need some additional passing loops west of Drem, the likely cessation of power generation at Cockenzie in the short to medium term will free up some capacity on this part of the ECML which may reduce the needs for this additional infrastructure.

7.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions

The remaining interventions performed strongly in their STAG Part 1 assessments (see Appendix B). Our recommended approach to taking forward the interventions is summarised in Figure 7.1.

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Figure 7.1: Edinburgh Local Routes Interventions Prioritised by Timescale and Resource Scenario

Short to Medium to Immediate Medium Long Term Scenario Recommended Interventions Term Dependencies

A No interventions identified

B New hourly, semi-fast service Completion of Edinburgh Waverley Phase 1 and Stirling from Dundee to Edinburgh via - Alloa - Kincardine Kirkcaldy

Hourly service to Perth from Continued delivery of housing growth in Perth and north Edinburgh Fife

Train splitting / Fife Circle, Delivery of the housing growth at Levenmouth extension to Levenmouth

New passenger service from Alloa Continued delivery of housing growth in Alloa / via Longannet to Edinburgh Kincardine, coal traffic to Longannet ceases.

Construction of additional freight capacity near Glenrothes, including upgrading the single Construction of new freight terminal lead junctions from Redord Junction

1tph additionally to North Berwick (off-peak) or Dunbar, and Delivery of housing growth in east Edinburgh construction of passing loops west of Drem

Interventions Not Taken Forward Key Passenger services via the Edinburgh South Suburban Better use of capacity through service planning Route Other modes Change to the physical network Extension of 1tph from Dunblane to Perth Change to rolling stock

Scottish Executive Edinburgh Local Interventions

Timescale for Interventions - Draft 11-Oct-05 j:\117897\timescale for intervention.xls There are some important points to note from the overall strategy shown in Figure 7.1: • With greater resources in Scenario B there is scope to provide further capacity on the network and improve access. In the short to medium term, it is recommended that the focus be on the restructuring of the timetable in Fife to provide more capacity and reinstate a rail link to Levenmouth (subject to the delivery of plan-led housing growth in the town), where there is plan-led housing growth, as described in detail in Section 7.4 above. This scheme could also generate improved performance on the Fife Circle, and the additional subsidy requirement needed to support the improved service is relatively small. This should be implemented in parallel with the recommended changes to the inter-urban services through Fife recommended in the last chapter. Given the current load factors and forecast number of new houses, improvements to the local services in Fife should form the most important priority for this set of routes. • On the east side of Edinburgh, it is recommended that the intervention to increase off- peak weekday train service frequency to North Berwick or Dunbar be implemented when coal traffic to Cockenzie ceases. Further work is needed to compare the relative merits of an extra hourly service to North Berwick or a new local service to Dunbar. Improvements to the local rail network may represent a more effective solution to improve connectivity to Dunbar, compared with amending existing Anglo-Scottish services. If Dunbar offers a stronger case, public transport connectivity to North Berwick could be improved by connecting a bus feeder from North Berwick to Drem with the Dunbar service. This is also an important intervention given the planned housing growth in East Lothian, although it forms a lower priority than the Fife routes. • In the medium to longer term within Scenario B, consideration should be given to introducing an additional hourly commuter service to Perth from Edinburgh via Fife. As discussed in the previous chapter, the prioritisation for this intervention is dependent on the timescale and number of new homes constructed in north Fife and Perth.

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If power generation ceases at Longannet and the Alloa – Dunfermline bus link has been successful at developing a public transport market to Edinburgh (in conjunction with the delivery of plan-led housing growth) then consideration should be given to the introduction of a Stirling - Alloa – Edinburgh service (possibly via a reinstated Charleston chord at Dunfermline). This is a relatively low priority, given the various dependencies. • In the medium to longer term, interventions to increase freight capacity should not be ignored in Scenario B as opencast coal mining develops in Fife, Anglo-Scottish coal traffic increases and the possibility of one or more locations for biomass power generation emerges. This would include upgrading the GSW route as an alternative for some Anglo-Scottish coal traffic, ensuring passenger timetable proposals are compatible with freight growth and resolving some key capacity bottlenecks (such as the north and south chords from Redford Junction near Glenrothes). Figure 7.2 overleaf illustrates the recommended interventions schematically showing their relationship to the present railway network and services.

7.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening

Failure to respond to plan-led housing growth, could lead to a worsening passenger overcrowding, particularly the Fife routes

Commuters could switch to road, leading to worsening congestion and a deterioration in the city environment

If rail services become inadequate, this may delay the pace of plan-led growth, and the expansion of the nationally important Edinburgh economy may be constrained

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Figure 7.2: Edinburgh Local Routes (Present Network, Scottish Ministers’ Committed Schemes and Prioritised Recommended Interventions from SPA.

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8 Glasgow South West Routes

8.1 Background

The Glasgow suburban rail network is the second busiest British suburban railway. For that reason, it has been subdivided into three sub-groups: South West, South East and North; reflecting the existing geography of the railway and the patterns of services. The South West routes radiate from Glasgow Central High Level station and serve Ayrshire and Inverclyde as well as Prestwick airport and the Ayrshire coast branches to (including the branch to Hunterston) and Ardrossan via Saltcoats. The route to Kilmarnock is the northern end of the GSW and includes the branch to East Kilbride and the link across from Kilmarnock to Ayr and Troon. The Inverclyde routes serve Gourock and Wemyss Bay via Port Glasgow. We have not included the route south of Ayr to Girvan and (which is included with the Rural Routes – South and discussed further in Chapter 12) and the GSW route south of Kilmarnock to Carlisle including associated freight branches (which is treated as an Anglo- Scottish route within the SPA and discussed further in Chapter 13). However, we do discuss the interfaces with these services in the chapter, including the role of the GSW as a corridor for Anglo-Scottish rail-borne coal traffic. The Glasgow South West routes play a critical role in the Scottish rail freight network. The route to Largs provides the link to Hunterston. Imported coal is moved to both Longannet (via , Paisley Gilmour Street and ) and to English coal-fired power stations (via the GSW route and Glasgow / Shotts route to the ECML). As discussed in Chapter 2, there is significant uncertainty surrounding the future movement of coal although the price of gas and oil may make the medium term retention of Longannet power station more likely (with fitment of flue gas desulphurisation equipment). Clydeport’s proposals for the development of a container wharf adjacent to the existing facilities at Hunterston has significant implications for future capacity requirements on the railway via Kilwinning (and possibly also via the GSW) if implemented.

8.2 Key Objectives Supported

In the future, the Glasgow South West routes could contribute to a number of the key thematic objectives for rail of which the most important for identifying specific interventions are to: • support plan-led growth and regeneration; • facilitate access to airports (Prestwick International Airport); • facilitate access to ports (the critically important Scottish port at Hunterston); • achieve more sustainable patterns of freight movements; • foster social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private car; and • improve integration between transport services and modes. They could also contribute to the following key spatially-specific policy objectives for rail: • facilitate plan-led growth in Glasgow, the Clyde Valley and Ayrshire; and • strengthen the roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and tourist centres.

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8.3 Main Issues

Certain issues on the rail network could prevent the Glasgow South West routes contributing to delivering the identified key objectives and fulfilling their important role in the Scottish transport network. They are listed in Table 8.1 overleaf. The main issues highlighted in the table are: • future passenger overcrowding affecting services to the Ayrshire coast are caused by two factors: plan-led housing growth and the forecast growth in passenger throughput from the present 2 million passengers per annum (mppa) to 6mppa in twenty years time at Prestwick Airport. There are a number of capacity constraints on the Ayrshire coast route that constrain service frequencies); • the significant capacity requirements for the movement of imported coal to Longannet coal-fired power station (and until recently, Cockenzie) from Hunterston combined with the capacity implications of the development of a container wharf at the port and potential further growth in opencast coal mining in Ayrshire; • poor interchange in Central Glasgow from Glasgow Central to Glasgow Queens Street that restricts the opportunities for onwards rail journeys from the Glasgow South West routes; • urban – suburban population shift from Glasgow to areas of plan-led housing growth around Kilmarnock and is likely to increase the demand for travel into Central Glasgow for employment. Services are presently constrained to an hourly service by the existing infrastructure layout; • the potential development of a biomass power-generation plant in Ayrshire could require additional train paths via Paisley or Kilmarnock. Our analysis assumes that the implementation of the committed Glasgow Airport Rail Link scheme will result in the route between Paisley Gilmour Street and Shields Junction, which is a significant bottleneck, being partially three-tracked with bi-directional running to increase capacity. This will mainly benefit services to the airport. Incidentally, the additional 4tph operating to the airport combined with existing service frequencies from Paisley Gilmour Street creates a high frequency service from this important traffic generator8.

8 Our Part 1 Report identified the Glasgow – Paisley Gilmour Street flow as the second busiest single flow in Scotland after Edinburgh - Glasgow

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Table 8.1: Main Issues and Long List of Interventions on Glasgow South West Routes

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions Generic: Branding of the network to ‘Scottish suburban stations standard’. Implementation of minimum standards for service frequency, station facilities, and passenger information systems. Some rolling stock formations do not make best use of existing capacity. balance of 3- Generic: Review existing allocation of rolling car and 6-car trains between the Ayr / Largs / stock to revise the balance of three and six car Ardrossan and Gourock / Wemyss Bay trains between the Ayr and Port Glasgow routes requires review. Planned housing growth in Ayrshire routes. (especially along the coast and Gourock Capacity bottlenecks constrain the quantum GSW–I01: Reduce the service frequency to Valley) will increase demand for commuting of trains that can operate to and from Gourock to 2tph, and redeploy the spare rolling and leisure travel into Glasgow based on the Ayrshire. These include: stock to the Ayr route to support the planned Scottish Executive’s forecasts. There is housing growth on the Ayrshire coast and platform capacity at Glasgow Central; already a relatively high peak 3-hour average forecast expansion at Prestwick Airport. load factor south of Paisley Gilmour Street, 4 minute signalling headways between GSW–I02: Introduce skip-stop calling pattern to GSW-P1 which is forecast to increase upwards of Paisley and Kilwinning due to 3-aspect serve Hillington West / Hillington East / 115% by 2026. This is likely to lead to signalling between Paisley and Brownhill. Cardonald stations to make better use of significant overcrowding on services in the a two track railway between Paisley and existing line capacity and support improved train peak hour. The capacity provided by the Kilwinning with a mix of express, all stations frequencies to the Ayrshire coast. GARL between Paisley Gilmour Street and services and freight trains from Hunterston Shields Junction does not address all of the Generic: Better signalling between Paisley and (each with different stopping patterns and constraints on increasing capacity from the Kilwinning to support the additional train running speeds) and the lack of a Down GSW Electric Routes. frequencies to Ayr. Loop at Elderslie. GSW–I03: Revise stopping pattern of Wemyss single track passenger route to Largs from Bay / Gourock trains to stop all trains at the Saltcoats. intermediate stations between Glasgow Central and Paisley Gilmour Street delivering 4tph for Hillington West / Hillington East / Cardonald. GSW–I04: Introduce 1-2 additional services per hour to Ayr to support housing growth on the Ayrshire coast and forecast passenger growth

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions at Prestwick Airport. Intervention may require additional capacity between Paisley and Glasgow Central to support the higher train frequencies. GSW–I05: Construct a new rail alignment to Bridge of Weir from Johnstone to support planned population growth in Ayrshire. GSW–I06: Upgrade GSW as a potential route for imported coal - intervention could allow train frequencies via Kilwinning to increase.

Existing train formations and frequencies GSW–I04: Introduce 1 additional service per provide inadequate capacity to support hour to Ayr to support housing growth on the The 2003 DfT White Paper on ‘Future of Air passenger growth, particularly during the off- Ayrshire coast and forecast passenger growth Transport’ forecasts significant passenger peak. Much of the growth will be focused on at Prestwick Airport. Intervention may require growth at Prestwick Airport over the next 20 low cost airlines whose passengers tend to additional capacity between Paisley and years (numbers will treble from 2m to 6m have a greater propensity to use public GSW-P2 Glasgow Central to support the higher train passengers per annum), which will put transport. frequencies. pressure on increasingly crowded services High proportion of flights by overseas from Ayr as the airport already has a high rail Generic: Upgrade station facilities at Prestwick operators, and the resulting dispersal of mode share. Airport to enhance waiting environment for visitors to Scotland by rail. passengers, proposed enhancements include Other constraints are as SW-P1. staffing, and better passenger information. Generic: Improve facilities at Ayr and Troon stations to encourage bus – rail integration. Car parks are generally full limiting the Generic: Expand the existing Park & Ride potential for rail to capture growth in the facilities at Kilwinning, Johnstone and the other demand for commuting and leisure travel to First ScotRail data indicates existing parking GSW-P3 major stations. Glasgow. This is particularly important where availability is very limited at most stations. housing growth is planned on the Ayrshire Generic: Identify opportunities to deliver better coast. bus-rail interchange at the principal stations to reduce the pressure on car parking availability. Generic: Improve bus-rail integration at

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions Kilmarnock Station to reduce the reliance on car parking provision at the station. GSW–I07/ AS-I13: Additional freight capacity from Hunterston, including the construction of Single track freight only line to Hunterston passing loops or electrification of the Largs Imported coal from Hunterston to Longannet port is parallel to the single track passenger freight-only branch line to allow additional train and Cockenzie presently puts significant route. movements and timetable flexibility. demands onto the capacity of the route from the port near Largs to Shields Junction (with Lack of W10 gauge clearance for high-cube GSW–I08/ AS-I15/ RRS-I05: Construct a some coal moving to England via the deep sea containers should the container rounding loop facility at Mauchline to improve Newton-on-Ayr and Mauchline Junction. The port be developed. operational flexibility, avoiding unnecessary use long term future of imported coal through of line capacity to reposition freight trains. GSW-P4 The capacity bottlenecks north of Kilwinning Hunterston is uncertain. However, there are described in SW-P1 above. GSW–I09: Develop a routeing strategy for proposals to develop Hunterston as a deep freight trains originating from Hunterston. sea port with potentially significant demands Single track, 10 mile long route from Newton- for additional cross-border train paths via on-Ayr to Mauchline Junction is critical for GSW–I06/ED-I10/ EG-I12: Increase line Paisley towards Rutherglen and Mossend. moving coal to England but is a significant capacity for the Glasgow South West route via There is uncertainty surrounding the demand bottleneck given its slow line speed, lack of Dumfries. Current capacity constraints on the for coal. crossing point and single line token GSW mean some coal trains are forced to use signalling. the ECML, and are routed via Shotts and Millerhill. Coal trains originating from Fife pass through Haymarket West Junction. GSW–I10: Construction of Glasgow Crossrail to facilitate cross-city journeys. Scheme could Lack of a direct heavy rail link between allow trains from Ayr to be extended to Interchange in Central Glasgow is relatively Central and Queen Street stations, although Cumbernauld via the Strathbungo Link, poor between Glasgow Central and Queen GSW-P5 it is possible to interchange onto some improving access to other destinations within Street, restricting the opportunity for onward services via Glasgow Central Low Level. Glasgow centre and facilitating cross-Glasgow journeys by rail. journeys. Intervention could also improve network efficiency, and reduce platform availability constraints at Glasgow Central.

GSW-P6 Possible construction of bio-mass electricity Newton-on-Ayr to Mauchline Junction is a GSW–I08/ AS-I15/ RRS-I05: Construct a generation plants at Glenrothes and Killoch in freight-only route, but single track section rounding loop facility at Mauchline to improve

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions Ayrshire will increase demand for train paths may have insufficient capacity for additional operational flexibility, avoiding unnecessary use on the Highland Main Line and other routes. freight movements. of line capacity to reposition freight trains. Generic: Train lengthening on the Kilmarnock route to support urban – suburban population shift. Forecast urban – suburban population shift Existing single track between Barrhead and GSW-I11: Infrastructure solution between from Glasgow fuelled by planned housing Kilmarnock prevents the introduction of a Kilmarnock and Barrhead to allow 2tph to growth around Kilmarnock and Stewarton is GSW-P7 regular 2tph service to Kilmarnock from Glasgow Central all day and additional capacity likely to encourage additional medium Glasgow. An irregular 2tph currently for freight, supporting planned urban – suburban distance commuting and leisure travel into operates in the peak flow direction. population shift. Glasgow the Kilmarnock route. Generic: Improvements to Busby Junction to allow better timetable flexibility for the East Kilbride and Kilmarnock routes. GSW-I11: Infrastructure solution between Kilmarnock and Barrhead to allow 2tph to Glasgow Central all day and additional capacity Lack of capacity for growth in freight traffic for freight, supporting planned urban – suburban (such as ‘export’ of opencast coal to Existing single track between Barrhead and population shift. GSW-P8 Kilmarnock means that all capacity is used England) north of Kilmarnock. GSW-I12: Expansion of freight terminal at by passenger services at the moment. Elderslie, and extension of the Paisley Canal branch line, and associated capacity enhancements on the branch.

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8.4 Long List of Interventions

Table 8.1 includes the long list of interventions generated, mapped against the issues that each addresses. The table is relatively self-explanatory but some key themes within the list of interventions should be highlighted: • Tackling the emerging overcrowding on services to the Ayrshire coast by interventions that could provide up to 2 additional hourly services to Ayr. A number of alternative interventions were identified to deliver this. Introducing the first additional hourly service through timetable restructuring is relatively straightforward and would not require additional infrastructure (even at Glasgow Central High Level), although the performance issues arising from these timetable changes requires careful consideration. Consideration may also be given to the introduction of longer trains, with 4-car units replacing 3-car units if growth at Prestwick Airport and housing development on the Ayrshire coast is achieved. These rolling stock capacity enhancements could be delivered as part of a wider rolling stock replacement programme in Scotland. • However, the second new hourly service to Ayr would require additional infrastructure and platform capacity to be released at Glasgow Central High Level. It could also require some additional signalling and infrastructure capacity near Kilwinning (although the requirement could be reduced if capacity on the GSW route to Carlisle is increased, so it could handle a higher number of coal trains from Hunterston to England than at present). • Interventions to provide more capacity on the route between Glasgow and Kilmarnock subject to the release of capacity at Glasgow Central High Level (possibly achieved by electrification of the route to Whifflet and the diversion of services to the Low Level station).The additional train capacity could be achieved by lengthening services to 6-car, or increasing frequencies. • Implementation of the Glasgow Crossrail project to facilitate more cross-city journeys. • Provision of additional capacity for handling other sources of growth in rail freight traffic including the proposals for a container port at Hunterston and growth in opencast coal mining in Ayrshire. The construction of a container port at Hunterston could help to develop the case for double tracking between West Kilbride and Saltcoats, this would strengthen the case for improving the GSW route but would also require other interventions, particularly the construction of a run-round loop at or near Mauchline to reduce the present unnecessary use of line capacity to reposition trains of opencast coal to face the right direction for the journey south on the GSW to England.

8.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment

8.5.1 Glasgow Crossrail The construction of Glasgow Crossrail is a potential intervention to facilitate cross-city journeys. Whilst the intervention (GSW-I10) was shortlisted, it was not taken forward after the STAG Part 1 Assessment for a number of reasons. Firstly, there appears to be insufficient demand for cross-city travel on the routes proposed based on the latest demand study (Glasgow Cross-City Rail Link Demand Study) prepared by MVA in 2001. Table 8.2 summarises the then identified demand for cross-Glasgow trips by public transport and car.

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Table 8.2: Cross Glasgow Trips

Origin Public Transport Trips Car Trips (2 way 24 hours) (2 way 24 hours) Newton 1,618 3,661 Cathcart Circle 1,019 2,956 653 3,592 East Kilbride 612 3,818 Barrhead / Kilmarnock 656 5,068 Paisley Canal 774 3,406 Ayr / Inverclyde 2,234 19,150 TOTAL 77,566 41,651

Source: MVA 2001 Car trips are the most likely source of mode shift to rail that would occur due to Crossrail. The largest proportion of cross-city car journeys is from Ayr / Inverclyde. This destination of these trips is summarised in Table 8.3. Table 8.3: Destinations of Cross Glasgow Trips from Ayr / Inverclyde

Destination Car Trips (2 way 24 hours) Aberdeen 2,058 Dunblane 4,656 Edinburgh North 5,039 Cumbernauld 2,044 1,723 Airdrie 3,630 TOTAL 19,150

Source: MVA 2001 The table shows that the largest of these cross-city car flows is Ayr / Inverclyde to Edinburgh North (5,039 2 way daily trips). If it is assumed that this equates to 2,500 one way trips by car and that about 20% of these (500 one way trips) are made in the morning peak hour, then if rail captures 20% of them due to Crossrail then this would equate to 100 trips in the morning peak hour. This would not even fill half the seats on one train composed of typical Glasgow suburban rolling stock9. This is the largest identified cross-city car flow so it can be seen that potential demand for a cross-city rail service on the other flows will be even smaller. Furthermore, it should be noted that the route via the will extend journey times for certain journeys to the city centre (for example, from East Kilbride and Kilmarnock), which may have a negative impact on demand. This analysis suggests that the economic benefits from the scheme will be limited and insufficient to cover the latest capital cost estimates, which we understand from Strathclyde Passenger Transport (SPT) to be between £140m and £150m for the cross city link via the former Strathbungo link (the exact number depends on the number of train services).

9 For example, a Class 320 electric multiple unit has 230 seats.

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It should be noted that we understand that these costs do not cover any additional infrastructure required to superimpose the Crossrail service on the wider timetable and network so the actual capital costs are likely to be higher. This suggests that the scheme will offer very low value for money for the cost to the public sector, despite its wider benefits such as improving accessibility to Glasgow city centre (although these might be overstated given the longer journey times that result on some routes) and integration with other modes of transport (such as the subway at the proposed Glasgow Cross station). Furthermore, the point should not be lost that other interventions recommended for further development in this report would, when combined with the Scottish Minister’s seven committed rail schemes, deliver a significant improvement to cross-city travel opportunities in Glasgow and meet many of the objectives claimed for Crossrail. They are: • The interventions described in Chapter 5 to improve services from Glasgow Central High Level to Edinburgh via both the Shotts and Carstairs route could deliver up to 3tph with about an hour’s journey time to Edinburgh city centre. The wait time should be more attractive than crossing the city centre and waiting for the 4tph, 50-minute service via Croy. These interventions will enable direct interchange to Edinburgh services from Ayrshire and Inverclyde services at Glasgow Central High Level. • The intervention to electrify and improve service frequencies to 4tph on the Cumbernauld line will require the diversion of these services to Glasgow Queen Street Low Level and their possible integration with electric services to the North West of the City (or else turnback at Charing Cross). This will create a number of new cross city journey possibilities (with interchange at Bellgrove), as well as provide a direct rail service to more city centre stations than is available from Cumbernauld today. This intervention is discussed further in Chapters 5 and 9. • The intervention to electrify the Whifflet route and extend it to to enable it to serve the new settlement planned at (described in Chapter 10) would enable its diversion to Glasgow Central Low Level, turning back at Anderston. This would significantly improve access to the city centre from Whifflet, Wishaw and the new settlement at Ravenscraig. Also, the intervention would release capacity at Glasgow Central High Level to deliver frequency improvements on other routes (most likely the interventions to enhance service to Kilmarnock and to Edinburgh via Shotts). • The intervention to convert selected suburban routes in south Glasgow to light rail would free up further capacity at Glasgow Central High Level for frequency improvements and create the opportunity to create a light rail route (possibly using lower cost diesel tram train technology) into the city centre. This would further improve city centre access.

8.5.2 Interventions not taken forward at shortlisting During shortlisting (see Appendix A), a number of the other long listed interventions were not taken forward: • Intervention GSW-I01 – a low cost intervention to increase the service frequency by 1tph to the Ayrshire coast by reducing the service frequency by 1tph on the Inverclyde services via Port Glasgow. While the present level of frequency on the Inverclyde services is high, compared to actual usage, this is part of the Glasgow Clyde Valley “Corridor of Growth”. Therefore reducing service frequencies would be incompatible with providing a sufficiently frequent service to support the key objective for rail of facilitating plan-led growth and regeneration in this area.

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• Intervention GSW-I03 – the intervention to revise the stopping pattern of Inverclyde trains to stop all these trains at the intermediate stations between Paisley Gilmour Street and Glasgow Central was not taken forward. Although this would provide a 4tph frequency to these stations, their existing patronage figures are low and the corridor is well-served by buses. The intervention was not taken forward because of the low volumes at the station and the bus alternative offered, and because the additional stops would require additional capacity to be created on this busy stretch of railway due to the mix of stopping and fast and semi-fast services that it would create. • Intervention GSW-I05 – the intervention to reopen the railway from Bridge of Weir to Johnstone on the Ayr route was not taken forward because there is unlikely to be capacity for an additional service into Glasgow Central east of Paisley Gilmour Street, particularly given the timetabling solution proposed between Paisley and Glasgow Central that includes an additional hourly train. Furthermore, the population densities served would be unlikely to create a robust business case. A mix of improved car parking at Johnstone and Port Glasgow combined with a possible quality bus corridor is likely to offer better value for money.

8.5.3 Interventions not taken forward after STAG Part 1 assessment Other than Glasgow Crossrail, all interventions were taken forward after the STAG Part 1 assessment.

8.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions

The remaining interventions performed strongly in their STAG Part 1 assessments (see Appendix B). Our recommended approach to taking forward the interventions is summarised in Figure 8.1. There are some important points to note from the overall strategy shown in Figure 8.1: • Over the short to medium term, it is recommended that interventions in Scenario A focus on responding to the crowding issues on services to the Ayrshire coast. Crowding could initially be better controlled by implementing incentives to encourage shoulder peak commuting travel and the provision of additional rolling stock to ensure peak (peak hour and shoulder peak services) run at the maximum train lengths. The growth arising from plan-led housing growth and Prestwick Airport growth also justifies the further development of the intervention to adopt a skip-stop calling patterns at the stations between Paisley Gilmour Street and Glasgow Central. This would make more effective use of line capacity and enable the timetabling of an additional 1tph to Ayr for which there is sufficient capacity at Glasgow Central High Level station. We understand from discussions with Network Rail that sufficient capacity could be available to support a further hourly service towards Ayr without additional infrastructure if the calling patterns to Hillington West, Hillington East and Cardonald were amended. • This could be sufficient additional frequency for the route in the medium to longer term, depending on the level of housing and airport growth actually achieved, and the success of the shoulder peak pricing initiative. Station improvements at Prestwick airport will complement these schemes further promoting use of rail by air passengers (rail’s share is already high at about 30%). Improvements to the Ayr route should form the most important priority for the Glasgow South West routes, given current load factors, and the various demand drivers affecting the route.

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Figure 8.1: Glasgow South West Routes Interventions Prioritised by Timescale and Resource Scenario

Short to Medium to Immediate Medium Long Term Scenario Recommended Interventions Term Dependencies

New hourly service to Ayr and A Prestwick Airport with timetable Delivery of housing growth on the Ayrshire coast, and changes with skip stopping airport growth at Prestwick. Platform availability at calling pattern east of Paisley Glasgow Central Gilmour Street

B Additional hourly service to Delivery of housing growth on the M77 corridor, and the Kilmarnock, with trains extended commencement of ferry operations from Cairnryan. to Girvan Additional platform capacity at Glasgow Central

Introduction an additional train between Barrhead and Kilmarnock to compete more effectively with the M77

Further new hourly service to Ayr Continued delivery of housing growth on the Ayrshire and Prestwick Airport coast, and airport growth at Prestwick

Capacity improvements, Supports the growth of the Elderslie freight terminal particularly on the Paisley Canal branch line

Capacity enhancements on the Introduction of Hunterston as a container port, and GSW to support the growth in further growth of coal traffic coal traffic

Freight capacity enhancements Introduction of Hunterston as a container port for Hunterston

Construct a rounding loop facility at Mauchline to improve operational flexibility

Interventions Not Taken Forward Key Better use of capacity through service planning Change to the physical network Glasgow Crossrail Change to rolling stock Other modes

Scottish Executive Glasgow South West Interventions

Timescale for Interventions - Draft 11-Oct-05 j:\117897\timescale for intervention.xls

• With greater resources in Scenario B there is scope to provide further capacity. In particular, responding to planned housing growth on the route to Kilmarnock. By improving the layout at Busby Junction (where the East Kilbride route diverges) and reinstating some double track between Kilmarnock and Barrhead it is possible to operate 2tph all day to Kilmarnock, subject to the release of capacity at Glasgow Central High Level. Further capacity could be created by train lengthening. As discussed earlier, this could be best achieved by electrification of the Whifflet routes and the diversion of the services into the Low Level station (the intervention is discussed further in Chapter 10). The intervention, which should be developed further, would also benefit the Rural Routes – South from Ayr to Girvan and Stranraer. One of the hourly services would be extended to Girvan. This would provide an opportunity to simplify the timetable for services to Girvan / Stranraer services by focussing all services to Glasgow via Troon and Kilmarnock, with timetabled connections and improvements to Kilmarnock station to facilitate interchange to stations southwards to Carlisle on the GSW route. Improvements to the Kilmarnock route should form the second most important priority for the Glasgow South West route, given the current inadequacies of the existing service, and the existing load factors. • In the medium to longer term, it is recommended within Scenario B that the intervention to introduce an additional service to Ayr be developed further. The introduction of this intervention and the priorities with which it is introduced will depend on further housing and Prestwick airport growth.

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• The additional services would almost certainly require a reduction in signalling headways between Paisley and Kilwinning as well as potentially some additional line capacity such as one or more dynamic loops, particularly in the Ayr direction. Coincidently this may be best achieved with a package of improvements to intervene to provide additional capacity for freight or by the cessation of coal traffic from Hunterston. However, it should be noted that this scheme does require the release of capacity from Glasgow Central High Level station. If it is assumed that the capacity released by Whifflet route electrification is best used for additional Kilmarnock and Edinburgh via Shotts services, then this scheme would either require the implementation of an intervention to convert some of the suburban lines in south Glasgow to light rail. This would free up platform capacity, and forms a medium to longer term intervention (discussed further in Chapter 10). • The upgrade of the GSW as an alternative route for Anglo-Scottish coal movement would be required if coal movements to England from Hunterston continue as now (discussed further in Chapter 13). This intervention should be developed further. Should the proposal for a container port at Hunterston be implemented, this will initially require only a relatively small number of train paths per day (4-6 to Clydeport), which it should be possible to accommodate without significant investment other than possibly redoubling the to Hunterston10 and electrifying the second track. Re- signalling and additional track capacity between Kilwinning and Paisley may be required. These trains would go to Mossend via Kilwinning, Paisley and Shields Junction. As further docks are opened the requirement for daily trains would increase. It is a recommended a more detailed study is undertaken to develop a routeing strategy and examine alternatives for this traffic. With clearance of the loading gauge of the GSW route for the diversion of Virgin West Coast Pendolino operated services, we understand that it would only require additional expenditure to clear for high-cube deep sea containers. However, this route is not electrified. An alternative or complementary medium to longer term Scenario B intervention would be to provide more capacity by reducing signalling headways on the route via Kilwinning and Paisley, which also contribute to delivering an additional hourly train service to Ayr. Depending on volumes and the future situation with regard to coal movement from Hunterston and Ayrshire opencast mines, there is a further option. That would be the development of an alternative route for freight diverging at Elderslie (the container terminal could be expanded to fulfil a role as an inland container terminal for Hunterston as well as its existing similar role for Grangemouth) via a reinstated connection to the Paisley Canal branch, which would require electrification. If other options for providing additional capacity are exhausted then this potential intervention should be developed. The priorities for freight interventions must be treated differently to the possible passenger interventions. Figure 8.2 illustrates the recommended interventions schematically showing their relationship to the present railway network and services.

10 At the moment passenger services use one electrified single line and Hunterston freight use another parallel non-electrified single line.

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Figure 8.2: Glasgow South West Routes (Present Network, Scottish Ministers’ Committed Schemes and Prioritised Recommended Interventions from SPA)

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8.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening

failure to support plan-led growth in Ayrshire

Limitations supporting growth at Glasgow International and Prestwick Airports, due to limitations of the rail access to Glasgow city centre.

suppress expansion plans for the Port of Hunterston’s, due to the environmental impact of additional road freight on the surrounding area.

9 Glasgow North Routes

9.1 Background

The North routes serve the north west (Milngavie, Dalmuir, Helensburgh and Balloch) from both Central and Queen Street Low Level stations, the routes east from Glasgow Queen Street Low Level to Springburn, Airdrie, Bathgate and Edinburgh (from 2010) and the diesel routes north from Queen Street High Level to Maryhill, Cumbernauld and Stirling. The routes’ only significant role in the movement of rail freight will be the flow of imported coal from Hunterston to Longannet via Cumbernauld, Greenhill, Larbert and Stirling.

9.2 Key Objectives Supported

In the future, the Glasgow North routes could contribute to a number of the key thematic objectives for rail of which the most important for identifying specific interventions are to: • support plan-led growth and regeneration; • foster social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private car; and • improve integration between transport services and modes. They could also contribute to the following key spatially-specific policy objectives for rail: • facilitate plan-led growth in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley; and • strengthen the roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and tourist centres (the Airdrie route will also play a key role in improving Glasgow – Edinburgh interaction / connectivity).

9.3 Main Issues

Certain issues on the rail network could prevent the Glasgow North routes contributing to delivering the identified key objectives and fulfilling their important role in the Scottish transport network. They are listed in Table 9.1 overleaf. The main issues highlighted in the table are: • the risk of worsening performance due to the quantum of trains passing through a number of constraints (due to the Larkhall – Milngavie opening particularly the Milngavie branch and the – Partick section of route) and the extension of Airdrie services from Helensburgh / Balloch to Bathgate and Edinburgh; • growth in employment and economic activity in Central Glasgow coupled with plan-led housing growth on the corridor to Stirling stimulating demand for travel into Glasgow Queen Street High Level where there are real capacity constraints on increasing frequencies;

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• freight capacity issues caused by the movement of coal and potential growth in other commodities. Our analysis assumes that the implementation of the committed Larkhall – Milngavie scheme will remove the bottleneck caused by Maryhill trains having to run on west to Westerton to turnback (at the junction for the Milngavie branch) by restoring the link from Maryhill to Anniesland. It will also increase off-peak frequencies on the Milngavie branch to 4tph; with 6tph through Glasgow Central Low Level (peak frequencies are higher). This will make a contribution to reduce crowding levels and improving the availability of rail services on the corridor.

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Table 9.1: Main Issues and Long List of Interventions on Glasgow North Routes

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions GN-I01: Deliver capacity improvements between Queen Street and Cowlairs to improve timetable flexibility – double tracking the junction at Cowlairs South, additional signals on the approach to Queen Street and the construction of third bi-directional track for local trains improving timetable resilience for local and inter-urban services.

Platform lengths at Glasgow Queen Street GN-I02/ EG-I10: Electrification of the impose constraints on further train Cumbernauld Line would allow 2tph to be lengthening: (Platform 1 can only diverted from Queen Street freeing track and accommodate 3-car sets and only platforms platform capacity. Frequencies on the The growing importance of Glasgow to the 2, 6 and 7 can accommodate 6-car trains). Cumbernauld line could be increased, so Scottish economy will increase the demand encouraging more passengers, particularly for business and leisure travel on the Track layout south of Cowlairs Junction into those currently using Croy Park & Ride to ease services. However, a number of constraints Glasgow Queen Street causes timetabling GN-P1 demand on the Edinburgh - Glasgow route into limit the scope to increase frequencies, constraints for the 11-12tph in each direction. the High Level Station. The train frequencies lengthen trains, reduce journey times or Local trains from Maryhill, Cumbernauld / from Cumbernauld could also be improved, and enhance network reliability for services into Falkirk Grahamston and Stirling / Dunblane new connections constructed allowing cross- Glasgow Queen Street. must inter-work with expresses from Glasgow journey opportunities. Edinburgh / Aberdeen west of Greenhill GN-I03: Construction of an alternative Park & Upper Junction due to the lack of passing Ride at Castle Cary (Allandale) between Croy loops on the two-track railway. and Falkirk adjacent to Junction 4 M80. Line capacity issues require careful consideration given the current line utilisation. GN-I04: Spare terminal capacity at Queen Street created by diverting passenger services from Cumbernauld could be allocated to enhance the Maryhill services or the stopping trains towards Stirling / Dunblane (3tph on both routes). Improved frequencies towards Stirling

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions may require the construction of dynamic passing loops between Cowlairs and Greenhill allowing express trains to overtake stopping services. This could increase journey times by about 5 minutes.

Helensburgh and Balloch branch lines are Generic: Review timetabling of existing services single track, and there is potential to export to improve resilience, and reduce the potential delays across the network in the event of risk of train delays. Trains could be turned back service perturbation. using a facility at Charing Cross. Helensburgh / Completion of the Airdrie to Bathgate scheme Furthermore the route from Hyndland to Balloch trains could be operated to / from will mean trains operate from Waverley to Bellgrove via Glasgow Queen Street Low Cumbernauld to improve timetable resilience on Helensburgh / Balloch branch lines. This is a both routes. GN-P2 Level has track layout and signalling significant distance with trains crossing a headway constraints with associated Generic: Improve existing signalling capability number of known pinchpoints with a risk of performance risks. between Bellgrove and Finnieston to improve performance issues. Lack of platforms to enable eastbound trains timetable resilience. to turnback at Glasgow Queen Street Low Generic: Improved layout of the single lead Level. junctions at Craigendoran and Bellgrove would enhance timetable flexibility / resilience. Generic: Strengthen existing rolling stock formations on the North Electric route to support Lack of rolling stock to strengthen trains housing growth in the Clyde Valley Population growth is forecast for the Glasgow further. Generic: Increased capacity between Finnieston Clyde Valley particularly around Frequency improvements would require and Hyndland would improve network Helensburgh, which will have an impact on certain constraints to be removed, performance, given the complexity of train GN-P3 loadings on some services. Given the particularly signalling capacity between movements using Hyndland Junction. Solution concentration of commuting into the peak Bellgrove and Queens Street Low Level. could comprise 3 or 4 tracking, turnbacks and hour in the central belt this may create some Furthermore additional trains could not run additional cross-overs for passenger trains. crowding problems on certain services. on to Edinburgh via Airdrie and Bathgate and Generic: Branding of the network to ‘Scottish may require alternative destinations. suburban station standards’ including implementation of minimum standards for service frequency, station facilities, and

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions passenger information systems. Branch line is only partially double-track with a dynamic loop between Bearsden and Hillfoot. Completion of the Larkhall to Milngavie Generic: Improve the junction layout at Services from Milngavie run through the scheme will double train frequencies on the Westerton to improve timetable flexibility. capacity constrained route via Hyndland, GN-P4 Milngavie branch line to 4tph creating Glasgow Central Low Level and Rutherglen. Generic: Double the Milngavie branch line to additional performance risks as the branch is improve capacity, and enhance timetable only partially double track. Whilst performance regime benchmarks resilience. have been adjusted to take account of the additional train movements, the risk to network performance remains. GN-I05: Examine the opportunities to run fewer, Train frequencies operating between Section is operating at capacity, despite but longer trains on selected routes, so the Hyndland and Partick are high, 18tph during installation of four-aspect signalling. number of seats from each station is GN-P5 the busiest hour. Additional trains from Hyndland Station is also used as a crew unchanged. Intervention would improve Milngavie will put further pressure on network change. timetable resilience but could reduce the performance. adequacy of rail services. GN-I06: Procure replacement rolling stock for the existing Class 314 / 318 / 320 fleet. Examine Ability of the Class 314 / 318 / 320 fleet to the feasibility of high density rolling stock with deliver a reliable service may deteriorate in Units will need to be replaced during the lower seating requirements on the Milngavie to GN-P6 the future as reliability declines with lifetime of the SPA assessment period. Springburn, and Dalmuir to Bellgrove via associated impacts on performance. Clydebank routes. Rolling stock would need to be deployed on these dedicated routes to be effectively utilised. Generic: Improve Park & Ride facilities at Car parks are generally full limiting the Airdrie, Helensburgh and Easterhouse stations. potential for rail to capture growth in the First ScotRail data indicates existing parking GN-P7 demand for commuting and leisure travel to availability is very limited at most stations. Generic: Enhance to encourage Glasgow. interchange between rail, bus and the Underground.

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions Imported coal from Hunterston to Longannet will put significant demands onto the capacity Existing capacity of route from Greenhill to Generic: Construction of dynamic passing loops of the route from Greenhill to Stirling. The between Cowlairs and Greenhill will improve GN-P8 Stirling. long term future of imported coal through timetabling flexibility for passenger services, Hunterston is uncertain beyond 2016 which and create additional capacity for freight may release capacity for other uses. GN-I07: Improvements to the existing Motherwell to Cumbernauld service by extending trains to Stirling, providing Present hourly pattern of services to connectivity with an important interchange in Glasgow is irregular with 3tph but two within central Scotland. 10 minutes of each other and a 30 minute Generic: Lengthen Bishopbriggs platforms to Planned housing growth around Stirling and gap until the third. accommodate 6-car trains creating additional Alloa will increase peak loadings and GN-P9 Bishopbriggs station can only take 5-car line capacity to support population growth on increase the demand for off-peak travel to trains preventing all Stirling and Dunblane the Stirling corridor. Edinburgh and Glasgow. being extended to 6-cars. Generic: Introduce selective door opening at Current signalling capability at the ‘Carmuirs Bishopbriggs to allow 6-car trains to operate Triangle’ causes significant constraints. without lengthening the platforms. GN-I08: Introduction of an additional hourly service towards Stirling to support population growth.

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9.4 Long List of Interventions

Table 9.1 also includes the long list of interventions generated with them mapped against the issues that each addresses. The table is relatively self-explanatory but some key themes within the list of interventions should be highlighted: • A set of interventions that are potentially interlinked and would deliver more capacity on rail corridors presently radiating from Glasgow Queen Street High Level where crowding could be a problem. These include the option of adding capacity between Queen Street and Cowlairs through provision of additional signalling and / or infrastructure. The alternative options could form a package comprising: - electrification of the Cumbernauld line and the diversion of the existing 2tph from Falkirk Grahamston / Cumbernauld to the Low Level Station via a connection known as the Garngad chord. As discussed in the last chapter, this could create new journey opportunities both across the city centre and to other destinations with effectively timed connections at Bellgrove; - an increase in service frequency to 4tph from Cumbernauld to encourage greater use of the route (so easing crowding on parallel services into Glasgow on the route via Croy as was discussed in Chapter 5). The effectiveness of this enhancement could be increased by extension of services to a park & ride site at Allandale (adjacent to the M80) to the north east of Cumbernauld (with possible future extension to Falkirk Grahamston station) - the proposal envisages the retention of trains to both Barnhill and Springburn from the North Electrics network (2tph) - services will terminate in central Glasgow, and turnback at a facility near Charing Cross. Further work is needed to understand the operational issues associated with extra services operating via Glasgow Queen Street Low Level. - the capacity released at Glasgow Queen Street High Level station could be used to increase frequencies to Stirling / Dunblane by 1tph (where reasonably significant future demand growth is forecast some additional infrastructure may be needed between Greenhill and Stirling subject to the amount of Longannet coal traffic over this route at that time) and possibly also Maryhill or retention of the additional path for performance benefits. Signalling headways in to Glasgow Queen Street High Level could also be improved

• Improved access to the railway through car parking expansion, new station proposals and the use of bus-based feeders.

9.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment

9.5.1 Interventions not taken forward at shortlisting During shortlisting (see Appendix A), a number of the long listed interventions were not taken forward: • Intervention GN-I01 – the intervention to provide additional infrastructure between Glasgow Queen Street High Level and Cowlairs was not taken forward because of the likely cost and that alternative solutions exist with bigger benefits (such as electrification and diversion of the Cumbernauld services to the Low Level station) However, a lower cost solution to improve signalling headways in the Queen Street High Level Tunnel was taken forward for shortlisting.

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• Intervention GN-I07 – the opportunity to run fewer but longer trains was not taken forward because it conflicts with the general aspiration to run services with acceptable level of frequency to maximise accessibility to public transport to promote social inclusion. There is also a risk of revenue reduction arising from frequency reductions given the relatively high frequencies on parallel bus routes. • Intervention GN-I08 – the intervention to procure higher density rolling stock (such as units recently introduced for inner suburban services on South East Trains in Greater London) for Glasgow inner suburban services (such as to Milngavie, Springburn, Dalmuir and Bellgrove) at the time of fleet replacement was not taken forward. Whilst this intervention could offer benefits by increasing overall capacity, these units are confined to inner suburban routes. Whilst this is an acceptable solution for short distance journeys, units are diagrammed to other routes, and these types of units are not likely to be acceptable on longer distance services to Helensburgh or Balloch. • Intervention GN-I10 – the intervention to improve the existing Motherwell – Cumbernauld service by extending it to Stirling to provide an orbital rail route around the east side of Glasgow was not taken forward because of the infrastructure and signalling required to resolve capacity issues at Carmuirs and north of Greenhill. The scheme is unlikely to deliver a robust business case given the existing, very small, passenger base.

9.5.2 Interventions not taken forward after STAG Part 1 assessment All interventions were taken forward after the STAG Part 1 assessment.

9.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions

The remaining interventions performed strongly in their STAG Part 1 assessments (see Appendix B). Our recommended approach to taking forward the interventions is summarised in Figure 9.1 overleaf.

9.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening

failure to support plan-led growth and regeneration in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley

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Figure 9.1: Glasgow North Routes Interventions Prioritised by Timescale and Resource Scenario

Short to Medium to Immediate Medium Long Term Scenario Recommended Interventions Term Dependencies

A No recommended interventions

B Cumbernauld electrification, and May represent a lower cost solution for Glasgow extension of the trains to the Crossrail. Completion of the Airdrie - Bathgate scheme North Electrics network via allows opportunity to restructure the timetable Glasgow Central Low Level

Platform extensions at Bishopbriggs to facilitate 6-car Continued passenger growth on the Stirling corridor, operation between Stirling to and the procurement of additional rolling stock Glasgow Queen Street

Additional hourly service to Delivery of the intervention is either dependent on coal Stirling from Glasgow to support traffic to Longannet ceasing, or signalling housing growth improvements between Larbert and Stirling

Interventions Not Taken Forward Key Better use of capacity through service planning Change to the physical network None Change to rolling stock Other modes

Scottish Executive Glasgow North Interventions

Timescale for Interventions - Draft 11-Oct-05 j:\117897\timescale for intervention.xls There are some important points to note from the overall strategy shown in Figure 9.1: • The platform extensions at Bishopbriggs may form a Scenario A intervention. The capital costs for the extensions are relatively modest, and the combination of existing load factors and planned housing growth could remove the need for financial support, and allow 6-car train to operate. This intervention should form the highest priority for the Glasgow North routes. • The intervention to improve the Cumbernauld route services should be developed (including electrification, increased train frequencies to 4tph, diversion to Glasgow Queen Street Low Level station and the extension to a park & ride at Allandale). This is a Scenario B intervention and would provide relief to crowding on the Edinburgh – Glasgow via Croy route; improve access to the city centre and release capacity at Glasgow Queen Street High Level that could be used for additional services or to improve timetable robustness. This forms the second most important priority for these routes. Further feasibility work is needed to determine whether there is sufficient capacity to accommodate the proposed services from Cumbernauld via Glasgow Queen Street Low Level station. This could also release extra services to Stirling from Glasgow Queen Street. • In the medium to longer term, the level of plan-led housing development coupled with further growth in economic activity in Central Glasgow might justify an increase in the frequency of the service towards Stirling. The robustness of the eventual business case will be dependent on the amount of additional infrastructure required. The majority of the demand on this route originates from Lenzie, Bishopbriggs and Croy. Any reduction or cessation of Hunterston - Longannet coal traffic will reduce the need for such infrastructure. The additional service would require the diversion of the Cumbernauld services from Glasgow Queen Street High Level. The remaining capacity could be used to provide more timetable robustness or consideration be given to improving at least peak hour frequencies on the Maryhill route. Figure 9.2 illustrates the recommended interventions schematically showing their relationship to the present railway network and services.

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Figure 9.2: Glasgow North Routes (Present Network, Scottish Ministers’ Committed Schemes and Prioritised Recommended Interventions from SPA)

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10 Glasgow South East Routes

10.1 Background

The South East routes radiate from Glasgow Central High and Low Level stations. These cover the routes from the High Level station around the Cathcart Circle and to Whifflet and from the Low Level Station to Motherwell, Lanark, Hamilton and Larkhall. The routes to Edinburgh via Shotts and Carstairs were dealt with in Chapter 5 and the Anglo-Scottish WCML route from Glasgow Central via Motherwell is discussed further in Chapter 13. This part of the rail network has some significant roles in the movement of rail freight. The major container terminal at Mossend is located just to the south of Whifflet and connected to the WCML, with the route from Ravenscraig to Whifflet already electrified. It plays a critical role in the movement of Anglo-Scottish container traffic. In the future, it could play an important role at the north end of the network of continental freight services network radiating from the Channel Tunnel assuming this traffic continues to recover. Coatbridge Freightliner Terminal to the north of Coatbridge Central station is similarly important for Anglo-Scottish traffic. Also, the route east from Rutherglen is presently important for the movement of imported coal from Hunterston to both Longannet (via Cumbernauld, Greenhill and Stirling) and England via the Shotts route and ECML. As previously discussed, the future of this flow is uncertain.

10.2 Key Objectives Supported

In the future, the Glasgow South East routes could contribute to a number of the key thematic objectives for rail of which the most important for identifying specific interventions are to: • support plan-led growth and regeneration; • facilitate access to ports; • contribute to achieving more sustainable patterns of freight movements; • foster social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private car; and • improve integration between transport services and modes. They could also contribute to the following key spatially-specific policy objectives for rail: • facilitate plan-led growth in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley; and • strengthen the roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and tourist centres.

10.3 Main Issues

Certain issues on the rail network could prevent the Glasgow South East routes contributing to delivering the identified key objectives and fulfilling their important role in the Scottish transport network. They are listed in Table 10.1 overleaf. The main issues highlighted in the table are: • forecast growth, particularly the new settlement proposed for the Ravenscraig steelworks site, will increase loadings on services into Glasgow Central. The location of the proposed station also requires further consideration, since it could be located on one of three routes;

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• increasing pressure on Mossend (with its restricted numbers of reception sidings) and Coatbridge from the growth in inter-modal traffic, and potential increased pressure on the route via Rutherglen should Hunterston coal traffic be maintained at current levels and the container port proposals be implemented. Our analysis assumes that the implementation of the committed Larkhall – Milngavie scheme will increase off peak frequencies to 6tph through Glasgow Central Low Level (peak frequencies are higher) and provide a 2tph service to Dalmuir from Larkhall. This will make a contribution to reduce crowding levels and improve the availability of rail services on the corridor.

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Table 10.1: Main Issues and Long List of Interventions on Glasgow South East Routes

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions GSE-I01: Construct a new station at Ravenscraig to support the significant planned housing development. Generic: Review detailed train loadings on Some trains only operate as 3-car services via Glasgow Central to identify formations, rather than 6-car. requirement to reallocate or strengthen rolling Constraints on increasing capacity because stock formations. existing track layouts and current signalling GSE-I02: Extend the existing services from capability restricts the opportunities for Whifflet to Ravenscraig to support the planned Forecast growth, particularly the potential additional trains to operate due to signalling housing growth. large new settlement at Ravenscraig, will headways from Rutherglen to Finnieston, GSE-P1 increase peak load factors arriving at the train mix between Rutherglen East Junction GSE-I03: Electrification of the Whifflet and central Glasgow stations. and Newton West Junction, the 70mph Holytown routes, allowing these trains to be single lead junction at Newton West with diverted via Glasgow Central Low Level to long adjacent section of single line and the create additional platform capacity at the High mix of stopping patterns between Uddingston Level station. Trains could utilise the existing Junction and Motherwell. turn-back facility at Anderston. Generic: Branding of the network to ‘Scottish suburban station standards’ including implementation of minimum requirements for service frequency, station facilities, and passenger information systems.

Only three reception loops cause capacity GSE-I04: Construction of additional reception issues on the approach. Growth in deep sea and inter-modal freight sidings to maintain wider network performance, on the trunk haul will put pressure on Terminal capacity at Mossend. particularly if the inter-modal network in GSE-P2 Mossend, which is a key terminal for freight Scotland is expanded.

traffic. However, its capacity is constrained GSE-I05: Construction of new terminal at by its limited number of reception sidings. Coatbridge to support the expansion of the inter-modal network in Scotland.

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions GSE-I06: Procure replacement rolling stock for Units will need to be replaced during the Ability of the Class 314 / 318 / 320 fleet to the Class 314 / 318 and 320 fleet – note low lifetime of the SPA assessment period. deliver a reliable service may deteriorate in seating densities with significant standing space GSE-P3 the future as reliability declines with are not suitable for the Motherwell / Lanark / associated impacts on performance. Larkhall routes due to the relatively long journey

times from Glasgow Central. Generic: Review timetabling of services to improve resiliency, particularly following the introduction of Larkhall trains. Generic: Better signalling and additional turnbacks between Finnieston and Rutherglen to deliver better timetable flexibility.

Flat junctions can cause performance Generic: Improve the junction between problems if service perturbation occurs. Rutherglen and Newton to deliver better timetable flexibility. Single lines such as parts of the Hamilton Track layout and number of flat junctions may Circle between Airbles and Hamilton Central GSE-I07: Examine the feasibility of converting limit the opportunities for improved selected suburban routes to light rail (diesel GSE-P4 cause performance problems. performance or additional services to tram-train). This could significantly alleviate alleviate existing crowding problems. Existing track / signalling capability restricts platform constraints at Glasgow Central High the opportunity to improve train frequencies Level to support service improvements on the Cathcart Circle. elsewhere in the city. It would also allow suburban frequencies to be increased, and an alternative alignment would improve access to Glasgow city centre. There is also potential to serve new catchments, including the Castlemilk Estate that has very low levels of car ownership. GSE-I08: Examine the potential for train lengthening to increase capacity on the Cathcart Circle.

GSE-P5 Imported coal from Hunterston to Longannet Constraint SE-P2. Generic: Examine scope for improved timetable and Cockenzie presently puts significant flexibility, given revisions to the track layout and

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions demands onto the capacity of the route from Lack of W10 gauge clearance north of other flat junctions that will primarily benefit the port via Rutherglen. The long term future Mossend for high-cube deep sea containers passenger trains. of imported coal through Hunterston is should the container port be developed. GSE-I09: Increase line capacity on the uncertain. However, there are proposals to Hunterston branch line by electrifying the develop Hunterston as a deep sea port with freight-only section. potentially significant demands for additional cross-border train paths via Paisley towards Rutherglen and Mossend. There is uncertainty surrounding the demand for coal. Generic: Enhance Motherwell Station interchange to encourage a higher percentage Car parks are generally full limiting the of rail passengers to use buses to access to the potential for rail to capture growth in the First ScotRail data indicates existing parking GSE-P6 network. demand for commuting and leisure travel to availability is very limited at most stations. Glasgow. Generic: Enhance Hamilton Station interchange to encourage a higher percentage of rail passengers to use buses to access the network.

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10.4 Long List of Interventions

Table 10.1 includes the long list of interventions generated, mapped against the issues that each addresses. The table is relatively self-explanatory but some key themes within the list of interventions should be highlighted: • General use of incentives to encourage shoulder peak commuting mixed with ensuring all trains run at maximum length in the peak hour and shoulder peaks to better spread and handle the concentration of demand within the peak hour. • Interventions to provide more capacity to cater for the proposed new settlement at Ravenscraig. At present there is only 1tph on the route on which a station could be constructed, but this could be increased to 3tph with the extension of the 2tph service to Whifflet south to Wishaw via the new station. Furthermore, effective deployment of rolling stock could be used to strengthen the busiest trains. If this route was then electrified and trains diverted to the Low Level station (turning back at Anderston) then, as discussed in earlier chapters, this would free up two train paths into the High Level station that could be used for enhancements to services on the Edinburgh via Shotts and Kilmarnock routes. • Possible provision of additional capacity to support the growth of Anglo-Scottish inter- modal, deep sea container and Channel Tunnel traffic including provision of some additional reception capacity at Mossend and expansion of Coatbridge. • Train lengthening beyond the current 6-car maximum on the Cathcart Circle to meet future demand. There are a number of infrastructure constraints that would restrict the scope to improve frequencies, including platform availability at Glasgow Central, and junction capacity, so train lengthening may offer a lower cost solution to boost train capacities. • Another potential solution to improve capacity on the Cathcart Circle is examining the feasibility of converting suburban routes in south Glasgow to some form of light rail. This would free up a significant amount of capacity into Glasgow Central High Level in the peak period. This could be used to improve timetable robustness of the remaining services and to facilitate frequency improvements on the routes to Edinburgh via Carstairs (discussed in Chapter 5) and to the Ayrshire coast (discussed in Chapter 8). It would also enable a significant increase in service frequency on the Circle with access to the city centre via a new alignment from West. The scheme would deliver significant accessibility and social inclusion benefits through the frequency improvements and potential expansion of the system to serve areas of very low car ownership, such as the Castlemilk Estate.

10.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Part 1 Assessment

10.5.1 Interventions not taken forward at shortlisting All interventions were taken forward at short-listing.

10.5.2 Interventions not taken forward after STAG Part 1 assessment All interventions were taken forward after the STAG Part 1 assessment.

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10.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions

The remaining interventions performed strongly in their STAG Part 1 assessments (see Appendix B). Our recommended approach to taking forward the interventions is summarised in Figure 10.1. Figure 10.1: Glasgow South East Routes Interventions Prioritised by Timescale and Resource Scenario

Short to Medium to Immediate Medium Long Term Scenario Recommended Interventions Term Dependencies

A No interventions recommended

B Delivery of the new setllement at Ravenscraig. Electrification of the route to Service improvements could be delivered as a diesel Whifflet, and extension to service as a lower cost alternative. Re-routeing of Wishaw. New station at services to Low Level station could create platform Ravenscraig capacity for other service enhancements using Glasgow Central High Level

Construction of additional Intervention would to support the expansion of the reception sidings at Mossend inter-modal network. Increase capacity of single track section to / from Hunterston

Construct a new freight terminal at Coatbridge to support the expansion of the inter-modal terminal

Examine the potential of Intervention would release platform capacity at converting suburban routes in Glasgow Central High Level south Glasgow to light rail

Interventions Not Taken Forward Key Better use of capacity through service planning Change to the physical network Train lengthening on the Cathcart Change to rolling stock Other modes

Scottish Executive Glasgow South East Interventions

Timescale for Interventions - Draft 11-Oct-05 j:\117897\timescale for intervention.xls

There are some important points to note from the overall strategy shown in Figure 10.1: • In Scenario B, additional resources would be available. It is recommended that the intervention to extend the Whifflet services to Wishaw to serve the proposed station at Ravenscraig should be developed for implementation when the new settlement is constructed. This should include the proposal to electrify the route and divert services to Glasgow Central Low Level station in order to release capacity at Glasgow Central High Level station for additional services to Kilmarnock and Edinburgh via Shotts. The electrification and diversion of Whifflet services from the High Level station should be considered for implementation even if the Ravenscraig development does not happen, because of the benefits delivered by the capacity released at the High Level station. Depending on the timescale and phasing of development at Ravenscraig, the construction of a new station, and extension of the Whifflet trains to Wishaw to deliver an adequate rail service should be the main priority for the Glasgow South East routes. Further feasibility work is needed to understand the operational implications of diverting trains from Glasgow Central High Level to the Low Level terminus. • Also, in the short to medium term in Scenario B, it is recommended that interventions are developed to expand capacity at Mossend (principally reception sidings) and Coatbridge in response to increased movement of inter-modal traffic. This will become essential if the container port proposal at Hunterston is implemented to its full capacity.

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• In the medium to longer term, it is recommended that the intervention be developed further to convert selected suburban routes in south Glasgow to light rail (including investigation of diesel tram train and other alternatives). As already discussed the scheme would deliver accessibility and social inclusion benefits for this area of Glasgow and would also free up capacity at Glasgow Central High Level station to enable service frequency improvements on other routes and improve timetable robustness. This could create sufficient capacity to accommodate additional trains between Edinburgh and Glasgow via Carstairs and services towards Ayr. This intervention should form a lower priority than improvements to the Whifflet route, given the potential complexity of route conversions. Figure 10.2 overleaf illustrates the recommended interventions schematically showing their relationship to the present railway network and services.

10.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening

failure to support plan-led growth and regeneration at sites such as Ravenscraig

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Figure 10.2: Glasgow South East Routes (Present Network, Scottish Ministers’ Committed Schemes and Prioritised Recommended Interventions from SPA)

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11 Rural Routes - North

11.1 Background

The Rural Routes – North include: • the (WHL) from Glasgow Queen Street via Helensburgh Upper to Oban and Fort William / Mallaig; and • the routes north from Inverness to Wick / Thurso and Kyle of Lochalsh.

Train frequencies are low on all of these routes, with only three trains per day on the routes in the Highlands. There is also a daily sleeper service to Fort William from London / Edinburgh. There is also a southbound commuter service from Lairg to Inverness and from Arrochar & Tarbet to Glasgow Queen Street. On all of the routes, end to end journey times are slow compared to car. Whilst the routes are reliant on subsidy, innovative ideas developed by the Highlands Rail Partnership have identified new passenger markets to grow revenue. Rolling stock quality is also a consideration, with Class 156 units deployed on the WHL, and Class 158s on the routes from Inverness. Whilst the routes are heavily reliant on subsidy, innovative ideas have been implemented by the Highlands Rail Partnership to identify new passenger markets and grow revenue. The recent patronage and revenue growth presented in the Case for Rail in the Highlands and Islands demonstrates the benefits of these initiatives. Furthermore, the study highlighted the relatively high percentage of rail users without access to a car and the resulting importance of the railway for social inclusion. The low frequencies on the Far North Lines mean wait time at Inverness when changing for the Highland Main Line or the Aberdeen route is unattractive. This is not helped by poor frequencies on both inter-urban services south to the Central Belt or on the Aberdeen route.

11.2 Key Objectives Supported

In the future, the rural routes in the north could contribute to a number of key thematic rail objectives, of which the most important are: • fostering social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private car; and • promoting tourism; They could also contribute to the following key spatially-specific policy objectives for rail: • strengthen economies and service provision in rural areas; and • support roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and tourist centres.

11.3 Main Issues

Certain issues on the rail network could prevent these rural routes contributing to delivering the identified key objectives and fulfilling their important role in the Scottish transport network. They are listed in Table 11.1 overleaf. The main issues highlighted on the table are: • the competitiveness of journey times. On the the rail distance from Inverness to Wick is about 30% longer than the equivalent road distance, so rail journey times are relatively uncompetitive compared with other modes;

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• plan-led housing growth and industrial development along the Cromarty Firth north of Inverness will increase demand for travel into Inverness; and • although early morning trains operate from Lairg and Arrochar & Tarbet to Inverness and Glasgow respectively, arrival times for stations significantly further north are not attractive for business passengers. These commuter services were extended from Tain and Garelochhead in the December 2005 timetable change and this has widen the potential catchment for the services. Operational considerations are an important timetabling consideration, given the single track sections that restrict flexibility. Our analysis assumed the delivery of the following committed enhancements, which address certain of the issues on Table 11.1. They are: • implementation of the scheme known as Invernet Phase 1 that will deliver an important step-change in rail service for the Far North Line. An additional was procured to operate a new commuter service between Newtonmore to Inverness in the morning peak. This will be deployed to operate a two-hourly service between Inverness and Tain / Invergordon for the rest of the day.

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Table 11.1: Main Issues and Long List of Interventions on Rural Routes - North

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions

Single track routes impose restrictions on RRN-I01: Deliver a faster rail service to timetabling flexibility affecting both the Wick from Inverness by adopting a skip-stop Far North and West Highland Lines. This Timetable planning based on operational RRN-P1 calling pattern. reduces the role that these routes could considerations, rather than commercial. play in linking the Highlands to the major RRN-I02: Construction of Georgemas chord centres of Inverness and Glasgow. to reduce journey times. RRN-I03 / IU-I08: Proposed hourly service from Perth to Inverness (potential Interchange at Inverness station to intervention to solve IU-P1) will enhance Timing for connecting services is not interurban services is poor, which frequencies on the Highland Line and RRN-P2 particularly convenient to encourage exacerbates their geographic reduce wait times at Inverness for onward onward rail journeys. peripherality of the Highlands. connections. Improved waiting facilities at Inverness.

Lack of a direct heavy rail link between Central and Queen Street stations, Generic: Encourage better use of Dalmuir Interchange from the West Highland Line although it is possible to interchange onto Station as an interchange station to the RRN-P3 to services from Glasgow Central is not some services via Glasgow Central Low Glasgow Electric network for passengers convenient. Level. from the West Highland Line.

Rail distance between Inverness and Rail delivers relatively poor journey time Wick is about 30% further than the road RRN-I04: Strategic journey time competitiveness compared with other distance – means rail timings are about 1 improvements and the construction of a modes, particularly to support the hour slower than even coach. Alignment RRN-P4 crossing over the Dornoch Firth linking Tain expanding Highland economy focused on of the West Highland Line is also longer with Golspie. This would allow semi-fast Inverness, and to link the West Highland compared with the A82, delivering slower services to Thurso / Wick from Inverness. to the services and economy of Glasgow. journey times to Fort William compared with car.

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions Arrival time to Glasgow from West Highland Line stations (north of Arrochar Arrival times to principal destinations are & Tarbet) unattractive for business RRN-I05: Extend the existing commuter RRN-P5 not conveniently timed to encourage passengers. Arrivals from the Far North services north from Lairg and Arrochar & commuting or business travel. Line (north of Train) and the Kyle Line Tarbet to serve wider catchments. are also unattractive for business passengers. Passenger numbers are low given the limited catchments, particularly outside RRN-I06: Examine the feasibility of the tourist season. franchised coaches to improve public transport frequency and complement Rural lines are heavily reliant on subsidy, Constraints listed in IU-P6: trains depart existing rail services to in-fill between trains. RRN-P6 and this restricts opportunities to improve 1-2 hours, although departure times are service quality. not regular. Capacity constraints prevent RRN-I07/ RRS-I03: Examine the feasibility hourly services from operating; much of of ‘lower cost, innovative revenue solution’ the route is single track with crossing model. points mainly in stations. Class 156s (West Highland Line) and Service quality is inadequate to Class 158s (Far North Lines) offer Generic: Refurbish Class 156 (West encourage significant business relatively poor internal comfort for Highland Line) / 158 (Far North Lines) units RRN-P7 passengers. This will become an journeys lasting up to 5 hours (Mallaig). to deliver a better on-board travelling increasing issue, particularly if the Trains operate a maximum of five times environment. economic growth in Highland is achieved. per day, caused by a combination of low demand and capacity bottlenecks.

Planned housing growth and industrial Generic: Construction of a new station at development along the Cromarty Firth Conan Bridge will deliver better access to north of Inverness to Tain will increase Timetable planning based on operational the rail network to discourage passengers RRN-P8 demand for commuting, business and considerations, rather than commercial. driving to Dingwall / Muir of Ord. leisure travel into Inverness but the RRN-I08: Review the passenger loadings Invernet service to Tain / Invergordon will using the 2-hourly service from Inverness to only be two-hourly. Tain / Invergordon to determine if demand

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions justifies a more frequent service to support housing demand. Proposals to develop a commercial port RRN-I09: Identify requirements for on the Cromarty Firth, if realized, or a Timetable planning based on operational additional network capacity given the RRN-P9 pulp mill at Invergordon could increase considerations, rather than commercial. additional passenger train movements north the demand for freight paths for inter- of Inverness following the implementation of modal traffic north of Inverness. Invernet Phase 1.

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11.4 Long List of Interventions

Table 11.1 includes the long list of interventions generated, mapped against the issues that each addresses. The table is relatively self-explanatory, but some key themes within the list of interventions should be highlighted: • Achieving faster journey times from Inverness to Wick / Thurso, either by adopting a skip-stop calling pattern or delivering strategic journey time improvements, possibly by line speed improvements and the construction of a new alignment over the Dornoch Firth. • The service frequency improvements between Perth and Inverness will help to reduced waiting times at Inverness for connection to onward services. • Innovative solutions to generate additional passengers and revenue, and scope to reduce maintenance regimes to achieve cost savings using examples of best practice from elsewhere in the UK. • Seeking to develop timetables that meet commercial objectives rather than operational requirements, particularly in terms of service quality, and arrival times to Inverness and Glasgow. This may include franchised coaches operating to improve public transport frequencies and to in-fill between trains, as running additional trains beyond those achievable with the existing rolling stock fleet is likely to be prohibitive in terms of the cost to the public sector.

11.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Phase 1 Assessment

11.5.1 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting During shortlisting (see Appendix A), a number of the long listed interventions were not taken forward: • Intervention RRN-I01 – the introduction of a skip-stop calling pattern between Wick / Thurso and Inverness to reduce journey times was not taken forward. With just 3 trains per day, this intervention was not taken forward due to the lack of alternative services that could call at those stations not served by the faster trains. We have already highlighted the importance of the social inclusion objective in rural areas, and this intervention would directly conflict with this objective. Furthermore it would remove potential sources of revenue from the smaller stations, which are unlikely to be replaced by significant numbers of additional passengers from the larger stations. Other interventions may present a more effective way of reducing journey times while still meeting the social inclusion objective. • Intervention RRN-I02 – the construction of a new chord at Georgemas Junction to reduce journey times to reduce journey times to Thurso was not taken forward. Analysis of LENNON ticket data suggested there would be insufficient passengers likely to benefit from the journey time saving to result in a robust business case; • Intervention RRN-I05 – the extension of commuter services beyond Lairg and Arrochar & Tarbet respectively was not taken forward. Population catchments further north of the present boundary of commuter services towards Wick / Thurso and Oban / Fort William are very sparse, and there are no other significant intermediate towns before these stations. Thus benefits will be limited and would be unlikely to cover additional operating costs (especially any requirement to lease additional rolling stock).

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11.5.2 Interventions Not Taken Forward after STAG Part 1 assessment The following intervention was not taken forward after completion of the STAG Part 1 assessment (see Appendix B): • RRN-I04 – reducing journey time between Inverness and Wick / Thurso by the construction of a new crossing over the Dornoch Firth and further line speed improvements. Consultants appointed to prepare indicative scheme costs estimated that the line speed improvements to permit 90mph operation would be about £40-50m. However, this estimate does not include the capital costs for crossing the Dornoch Firth to achieve the desired journey time of about 2 hours between Inverness and Wick. Although the scheme could deliver wider social and economic benefits for the Highlands, the analysis of LENNON ticket data indicates there are just 100 rail trips per day north of Tain. Given the relatively small number of trips, it will be difficult to develop a robust business case for this proposal, given the significant capital costs, and additional operating costs.

11.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions

The other interventions performed reasonably strongly in their STAG Part 1 assessments (see Appendix B). Our recommended approach to taking forward these interventions is summarised in Figure 11.1 overleaf.

11.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening

Failure to develop new passenger markets or reduce costs

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Figure 11.1: Rural Routes – North Interventions Prioritised by Timescale and Resource Scenario Short to Medium to Immediate Medium Long Term Scenario Recommended Interventions Term Dependencies

A No interventions identified

B Introduction of franchised Will require co-operation with existing coach operators coaches

Apply the 'low maintenance, Maintenance regime may be influenced by the future innovative revenue' model freight requirements

Construction of additional Delivery of housing growth, and the development of capacity to support freight and new freight flows passenger rail aspirations

Interventions Not Taken Forward Key Better use of capacity through service planning Change to the physical network Strategic journey time improvements Change to rolling stock Other modes (Dornoch crossing)

Scottish Executive Rural North Interventions

Timescale for Interventions - Draft 11-Oct-05 j:\117897\timescale for intervention.xls There are some important points to note from the overall strategy shown in Figure 11.1: In Scenario B, several successful initiatives have been introduced to attract new passengers, which are demonstrated by recent passenger growth. However, there are other good practice examples emerging in other parts of the UK that could be studied. The scope for potential savings in maintenance costs should be considered, although the feasibility of reduced standards will be dependent on the freight requirements on these routes. The introduction of Invernet Phase 1, together with the franchised coach services, represents a significant step change in public transport frequencies on these rural routes. • We would recommend that further work is completed to examine the practicalities of introducing franchised coaches as a lower cost solution to improve frequencies and reduce waiting times on Far North and WHL routes. These coaches would operate to complement the departure times of existing rail services, and should operate as branded railway services. Tickets would be inter-operable, with passengers able to use rail for their outward journey and return using a coach or vice versa. This should form a lower cost solution in the short to medium term. However, the possible limitations of integrating franchise coaches with existing rail services, as the parallel road network may not be suitable to serve all intermediate stations. • Towards the medium to longer term in Scenario B further intervention might be required to create more capacity for growth. For example, the results of our Planning Review presented in the Part 1 Report indicated housing growth is planned along the Cromarty Firth driven by the attractiveness and economy of the Inverness City Region. The take- up rate for this housing will determine whether existing frequencies would need to be further improved. There are also proposals for use of bio-mass for power generation, and other proposals that could generate demand for additional freight paths. Highlands & Islands Enterprise, HITRANS and the Highland Rail Partnership have commissioned a separate study ‘Room for Growth’ that will identify the potential medium to long term capacity requirements and potential interventions for delivery. This intervention requires a watching brief, but any intervention will have a lower priority than the previous ideas described. Figure 11.2 illustrates the recommended interventions schematically, showing their relationship to the present day railway network.

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Figure 11.2: Rural Routes - North (Present Network, Scottish Ministers’ Committed Schemes and Prioritised Recommended Interventions from SPA)

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12 Rural Routes - South

12.1 Background

This route covers a relatively small part of the rail network in South West Scotland, between Kilmarnock to Stranraer via Ayr. There is a relatively low frequency, but the service pattern is also not consistent. There are 2tpd between Stranraer and Glasgow Central via Paisley Gilmour Street, 3tpd between Stranraer and Glasgow via Kilmarnock, 2tpd from Girvan to Kilmarnock and 2tpd from Stranraer to Carlisle / Newcastle. This service pattern may be confusing for passengers, and does not facilitate interchange at key stations, particularly Kilmarnock. Line speeds are relatively slow, so rail struggles to compete with other modes, particularly given the improvements to the M77 / A77 for passengers travelling towards Glasgow. There are limited freight flows using the route, although there are growing numbers of coal from the open cast mines located in Ayrshire.

12.2 Key Objectives Supported

In the future, the rural routes in the south could contribute to a number of key thematic rail objectives, of which the most important are: • fostering social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private car; and • promoting tourism; They could also contribute to the following key spatially-specific policy objectives for rail: • strengthen economies and service provision in rural areas; and • support roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and tourist centres.

12.3 Main Issues

Certain issues on the rail network could prevent these rural routes contributing to delivering the identified key objectives and fulfilling their important role in the Scottish transport network. They are listed in Table 12.1 overleaf. The main issues highlighted on the table are: • plan-led housing growth around Girvan and Stranraer increase the importance of the slow journey times by rail compared to car (especially from Stranraer) and the potentially confusing present train service pattern; • the arrival / departures times for services to Stranraer are closely geared towards the ferry services to Northern Ireland. Stena are planning to relocate their ferry operations from Stranraer to Cairnryan from 2006. Whilst Cairnryan is not directly rail served, it could be served by a shuttle bus from Girvan, offering scope to amend the timing of trains to Stranraer to meet the requirements of other passengers, rather than just ferry passengers. There are committed plans to close the existing rail terminus at Stranraer Harbour, and replace this with a new town centre station, offering scope for it to be developed as a bus – rail interchange so increasing the catchment of the rail service; • access to Prestwick Airport is poor from South West Scotland; the combination of low frequencies, and inconvenient interchange at Kilmarnock for GSW services, discourages rail users from this corridor. This is important given the significant growth planned for the airport.

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• like the rural routes in Northern Scotland, the route to Stranraer is heavily reliant on subsidy; • there are potential future freight developments in addition to opencast coal production that could increase the need for capacity.

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Table 12.1: Main Issues and Long List of Interventions on Rural Routes - South

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions Improvements to the M77 / A77 have significantly improved road journey times to Stranraer. Capacity constraints on Glasgow SW Journey time competitiveness of rail Electrics routes between Kilwinning and Generic: New station at Dunragit / Glenruce. compared with other modes, particularly Shields Junction. car is weak to Stranraer. Trains operate RRS-I01: Restructure timetable to operate Lack of alternative route via Kilmarnock RRS-P1 beyond Ayr 7 times per day. Some trains at times that are linked to the for additional trains due to single track additional housing is planned around requirements of other passengers, rather between Barassie and Kilmarnock and Stranraer and Girvan making this a than ferry users. slightly more important issue. Kilmarnock and Barrhead. Arrival and departure times from Stranraer are focused towards ferry arrival times rather than other passenger groups. RRS-I02: Improved rail service from Girvan to Kilmarnock to improve rail access for Relocation of Stena ferry port to ferry passengers to Ayr and Kilmarnock for Cairnryan will increase journey time to the Proposed relocation of Stena ferry port to interchange with the GSW with some trains RRS-P2 port but provide an opportunity to retime Cairnryan will necessitate the extended to Stranraer forming a Stranraer to services to increase their attractiveness introduction of a new bus feeder. Kilmarnock shuttle. to other passenger groups. Generic: Development of Stranraer interchange to encourage better bus / rail linkages.

DfT Future of Air White Paper forecasts Limited number of through trains per day RRS-I03/AS-I10: Introduce additional direct significant growth at Prestwick Airport. from the Dumfries line to Prestwick due trains to Prestwick from GSW line to RRS-P3 Rail connectivity to the airport from the to single track between Barassie and improve rail connectivity from Dumfries and Glasgow South West line via Kilmarnock Kilmarnock and capacity constraints Galloway and support forecast passenger is very restricted. At the moment a south of Kilmarnock due to freight use growth. relatively small proportion of air and single track section between Annan C:\DOCUMENTS AND SETTINGS\PC\MY DOCUMENTS\RECEIVED FILES\PART 2 REPORT.DOC Page 119 Ove Arup & Partners Scotland Ltd Issue 1 August 2006

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions passengers originate from South West and Gretna Green. RRS-I02: Improved rail service from Girvan Scotland. to Kilmarnock to improve rail access for ferry passengers to Ayr and Kilmarnock for interchange with the GSW with some trains extended to Stranraer forming a Stranraer to Kilmarnock shuttle. RRS-I01: Restructure timetable to operate trains at times that are linked to the requirements of other passengers, rather Low passenger volumes means services than ferry users. are heavily subsidized. Significant Rural lines are heavily reliant on subsidy, proportion of trips currently using the line RRS-I03 / RRN-I07: Examine the feasibility RRS-P4 and this restricts opportunities to improve is made by ferry passengers, loadings of a ‘lower cost, innovative revenue service quality. could be reduced when the terminal is solutions’ model. relocated to Cairnryan. RRS-I04 / AS-I16: Replace passenger rail service to allow GSW to operate as a dedicated freight corridor. Service quality of Class 156 units is Generic: Refurbish Class 156 units to Class 156s offer relatively poor internal RRS-P5 inadequate, particularly to encourage deliver a better on-board travelling comfort for journeys lasting up to 3 hours. significant business passengers. environment. Possible construction of bio-mass RRS-I05 / GSW–I08 / AS-I15: Construct a Newton-on-Ayr to Mauchline Junction is electricity generation plants at Glenrothes rounding loop facility at Mauchline to a freight-only route, but single track RRS-P6 and Killoch in Ayrshire will increase improve operational flexibility, avoiding section may have insufficient capacity for demand for train paths on the Highland unnecessary use of line capacity to additional freight movements. Main Line and other routes. reposition freight trains.

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12.4 Long List of Interventions

Table 12.1 includes the long list of interventions generated, mapped against the issues that each addresses. The table is relatively self-explanatory, but some key themes within the list of interventions should be highlighted: • Provision of a more understandable and regular rail service to Girvan, particularly given the relocation of ferry services to Cairnryan. This intervention is in part delivered through the improvements recommended to Kilmarnock services in Chapter 8 by the introduction of a regular hourly service to Girvan. This offers a potential opportunity to operate a bus feeder services from Girvan to the ferry terminal for passengers without access to a car; • The Mauchline run-round facility is a new facility that would improve operational flexibility for freight trains and would reduce the number of services making lengthy diversions via Newton-on-Ayr, Troon and Kilmarnock to re-position for the rest of their journey;

12.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Phase 1 Assessment

12.5.1 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting During shortlisting (see Appendix A), a number of the long listed interventions were not taken forward: • Intervention RRS-I03 – the intervention to provide more additional direct trains to Prestwick Airport from the GSW route was not taken forward. Present services on the routes to Stranraer and the GSW are infrequent, and timing of connecting services at Kilmarnock is not particularly convenient. This causes confusion for passengers. We will explain in Chapter 13 our rationale for recommending the GSW route should be used primarily for freight. In light of this, we do not recommend additional passenger trains from the GSW corridor. Also, the proportion of passengers from Dumfries & Galloway to Prestwick Airport is relatively small meaning that a robust business case is unlikely. We believe that regularity of train service on the GSW (see Chapter 13) and the use of Kilmarnock as a convenient interchange between the hourly service to Girvan (a recommendation in Chapter 8) and the 2-hourly GSW service are sufficient for the potential market. • Intervention RRS-I04 – the intervention to operate the GSW as only a freight corridor was not taken forward because of the social inclusion considerations and strengthening rural economies objectives set for rail. Furthermore the road network is poor so replacement buses would offer a much extended journey time. By re-timetabling the route to best utilise additional capacity provided for Anglo-Scottish freight traffic, it should be possible to operate a 2-hourly passenger service.

12.5.2 Interventions Not Taken Forward after STAG Part 1 assessment All interventions were taken forward after the STAG Part 1 assessment.

12.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions

The other interventions performed reasonably strongly in their STAG Part 1 assessments (see Appendix B). Our recommended approach to taking forward these interventions is summarised in Figure 12.1.

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Figure 12.1: Rural Routes – South Interventions Prioritised by Timescale and Resource Scenario

Short to Medium to Immediate Medium Long Term Scenario Recommended Interventions Term Dependencies

A No interventions identified

B Construction of new town centre following relocation Stranraer Interchange of ferry port to Cairnryan

Timing of services to / from Stranraer, and regular service to Re-timetabling exercise required Girvan, Kilmarnock and Glasgow Central

Apply the 'low maintenance, Maintenance regime may be influenced by the future innovative revenue' model freight requirements

Interventions Not Taken Forward Key Better use of capacity through service planning Change to the physical network Change to rolling stock Other modes None

Scottish Executive Rural South Interventions

Timescale for Interventions - Draft 11-Oct-05 j:\117897\timescale for intervention.xls

There are some important points to note from the overall strategy shown in Figure 12.1: We believe there is scope to develop innovative solutions to attract additional passengers to the network, particularly once the Stena ferries to Northern Ireland have be relocated to Cairnryan. Whilst the number of trains to and from Stranraer may be unchanged compared with the current timetable, the timing could be revised to meet the requirement of non-ferry passengers more effectively. The completion of the new bus-rail interchange in Stranraer town centre forms an important part of this intervention. Re-timing service departures is a lower cost solution than improvements to the Girvan service, but this intervention should be accorded a high priority. • There are several examples of good practice that could be adopted to develop new rail markets, and the suitability of ideas introduced on the Far North Lines, and elsewhere in Britain should be examined. The opportunities to reduce the maintenance regime will be dependent on the future requirement for freight. This should be explored further in the context of opencast mine expansion, potential plans for a biomass power generation plant in South Ayrshire and interventions on the GSW to ease operation of freight services on this route and across from the Ayrshire coast. This intervention should also be accorded a high priority, and would complement the proposals to re-time trains proposed for the Stranraer line. • In Scenario B the Glasgow South West intervention to implement a 2tph service to Kilmarnock could be used to create an important interchange at Kilmarnock. One of those hourly services will run on to Girvan calling at all intermediate stations and every two hours the other will continue over the GSW to Carlisle. This service could still provide a through journey to Glasgow Central and an hourly service to Girvan would be attractive, although the potential demand needs to be considered in more detail. About 7 trains per day are currently extended from Girvan to Stranraer, but the timing of these services would be influenced by the local market rather than ferry passengers. This would replace the existing complex timetable and would be easier for rail users to understand. It is recommended that this intervention (including station improvements at Kilmarnock) is developed further in the short to medium term. This intervention forms the main priority for the route.

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Figure 12.2 overleaf illustrates the recommended interventions schematically, showing their relationship to the present day railway network.

12.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening

Failure to develop new passenger markets or reduce costs

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Figure 12.2: Rural Routes - South (Present Network, Scottish Ministers’ Committed Schemes and Prioritised Recommended Interventions from SPA)

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13 Anglo-Scottish Routes

13.1 Background

Hourly passenger services from Edinburgh to London on the ECML are provided by GNER, with some services extended northwards to Aberdeen and Inverness: there are additional peak services and hourly Virgin Cross Country services to the North of England and onwards via the Midlands southwards. The majority of rolling stock is new or refurbished; new Pendolino rolling stock has been introduced on WCML services from Glasgow to London operated by Virgin West Coast, with GNER has recently refurbishing its electric train fleets. These are supplemented via hourly Virgin Cross Country services operating on the WCML via Carstairs. The WCML from Edinburgh is an important freight route since it can accommodate high-cube, deep sea containers. There are 8 trains per day between Glasgow Central and Carlisle via the GSW and Kilmarnock, with a further two trains per day from Stranraer to Carlisle and Newcastle. The GSW is already an important freight route, but the number of freight paths is constrained by signalling and long single track sections on the route (particularly between Annan and Gretna near Carlisle). These capacity constraints mean some coal trains originating from Hunterston and from opencast mines are forced to use the ECML (using the route via Shotts from Glasgow).

13.2 Key Objectives Supported

In the future, the Anglo-Scottish routes could contribute to a number of key thematic rail objectives, of which the most important are: • strengthening cross-border transport links; • achieving more sustainable patterns of freight movements; • facilitating access to ports; • encouraging a shift towards more sustainable travel patterns; and • reducing the harmful environmental impacts of travel. They could also contribute to the key spatially-specific policy objectives for rail of supporting the roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and tourist centres

13.3 Main Issues

Certain issues on the rail network could prevent these rural routes contributing to delivering the identified key objectives and fulfilling their important role in the Scottish transport network. They are listed in Table 13.1 overleaf. The main issues highlighted on the table are: • Although passenger services via the ECML and WCML offers an attractive product in terms of journey time and frequency to the principal northern cities, rail is less competitive than air for time sensitive passengers to London and the South East. Furthermore, the balance between serving the principal passenger markets to maintain the attractiveness of journey times versus improving access to the high speed cross- border network from smaller intermediate stations may conflict. However, the attractiveness of WCML will increase, given the introduction of 125mph running to Glasgow, reducing journey times to London to 4.5 hours. • The importance of achieving high speeds and good service quality should be emphasised, allowing business passengers to make efficient use of their travel time.

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GNER has recently completed the refurbishment of its electric train fleet, whilst the new Pendolinos also offer a conducive environment for business passengers. • The high speed passenger services departing from Edinburgh on the ECML are relatively closely spaced (GNER and VXC), which creates sufficient capacity for the local trains to North Berwick, coal trains to Cockenzie, and longer distance freight. Identifying train paths to support aspirations for local stopping service may compromise network performance. Furthermore, the population catchments that could use dedicated local services may be insufficient. The mixture of high speed passenger services and freight on the WCML could also restrict the opportunities for a local stopping passenger service if network performance is maintained. • Carlisle is an important gateway station for Dumfries & Galloway, but trains times are not particularly convenient to attract interchange between the WCML and the GSW. The lengthy wait times for connecting trains discourages passengers from using the local service. • We have highlighted the requirement for some coal trains originating from Hunterston to use the route via Shotts and then the ECML given the capacity constraints on the GSW. The combination of limited signalling capability, a single track section between Annan and Gretna and irregular passenger services cause capacity constraints for freight.

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Table 13.1: Main Issues and Long List of Interventions on Anglo-Scottish Routes

Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions AS-I01: New local rail service from Anglo-Scottish services only call at one Edinburgh to Berwick / Newcastle. intermediate station between Edinburgh Waverley and Berwick-upon-Tweed, with Generic: New stations to support a local rail trains now calling every 2 hours to service at East Linton and Reston. Dunbar. Generic: New Park & Ride facility at Southbound departures from Edinburgh Musselburgh. towards Newcastle via the ECML are Attractive, competitive cross-border rail AS-I02: Hourly service to Dunbar delivered bunched (xx.00 / xx.05). However, even- links have a vital role supporting the by adding additional stops on existing trains, interval departures could restrict freight Scottish economy both for passenger and particularly on the VXC services since capacity, given the differences in running freight movements. This will require passengers are generally less time times. sufficient capacity for speed and sensitive. AS-P1 frequency of service. However, local Interface with freight and North Berwick Generic: Revise the existing track / platform communities along the route have services between Monktonhall and Drem layout at Dunbar to accommodate the aspirations for improved access south of constrains capacity. The North Berwick higher train frequencies. Edinburgh. services imposes a number of local stations on the ECML, there is a lack of Generic: Introduce an innovative pricing loops (other than at Prestonpans in the strategy for local taxis to improve rail access Up direction) and the location of Drem to Dunbar for passengers without access to station on the main line rather than the a car. branch line causes timetabling and Generic: Identify scope for an improved bus capacity constraints on ECML given the service connecting local communities with journey time differential of 15 minutes Dunbar to improve access to the rail between branch and intercity services. network.

Attractive, competitive cross-border rail Only one intermediate station on WCML AS-I03: Better bus interchange / car parking links have a vital role supporting the to Carlisle. Pattern of services to with additional trains stopping at Lockerbie to create a major intercity public transport AS-P2 Scottish economy both for passenger and Lockerbie is infrequent and with uneven freight movements. This will require gaps between departures. Balance hub for Dumfries. sufficient capacity for speed and between improving access to the rail Generic: Revise current track layouts at frequency of service. However, local network, and maintaining / enhancing Carstairs to increase line speed and reduce

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions communities along the route have journey times for longer distance journey times between Carlisle and aspirations for improved access south of passengers requires careful Edinburgh. Motherwell. consideration. Generic: New Park & Ride station at Uneven pattern of VXC departures from Symington to encourage longer distance Edinburgh to Carlisle, caused by limited commuting from the A702 corridor, availability of train paths and platforms particularly to Edinburgh, and strategic Park elsewhere on the network. & Ride trips from the M74. Carstairs is located at the convergence of Generic: New station at Beattock served by the WCML routes to Edinburgh and existing WCML trains. Glasgow. Served very infrequently by Generic: Improved station facilities at First ScotRail trains (not GNER or Carstairs, with Carlisle to Edinburgh trains Virgin), and access to the strategic calling additionally at Carstairs. highway network is poor. AS-I04: New local service from Carlisle to Glasgow via WCML including new stations at Beattock and Symington. Generic: Improved local bus services to Carstairs to enhance access to rail network. Train capacities on some services may Trains can be overcrowded, since the AS-I05: Better yield management for longer AS-P3 be inadequate to support longer term VXC units are only formed of 4-5 distance services to avoid over-crowding on growth, and seasonality of demand. coaches. VXC trains via the ECML. AS-I06: WCML upgrade. Rail journey times to London and the Timings are not competitive with air for AS-I07: Revise calling pattern on ECML South East are not competitive with air. business passengers, or even some services to enable more trains to reach Journey times to London from Edinburgh leisure trips. London in 4.5 hours or less. AS-P4 are generally about 4.5 hours, and 4 hours 10 minutes from Glasgow to Train frequencies may be too low, Generic: Continued refurbishment of electric London following completion of the generally 1tph from Edinburgh or train fleet to improve on-board environment, WCML upgrade. Glasgow via the WCML. particularly for business passengers using the WCML.

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions AS-I08: Restructure timetable to improve connectivity at Carlisle with trains to the GSW line. AS-I09: Deliver additional track capacity between Gretna and Eastriggs, together with additional intermediate block signalling Capacity bottlenecks on the Glasgow capacity on the GSW line to support There are poor connections at Carlisle South Western (GSW) (single track planned freight growth. between services to Kilmarnock and sections between Annan and Gretna intercity trains. There is likely to be some Green and Kilmarnock and Barrhead), AS-I10/RRS-I03: Introduce additional direct AS-P5 growth in demand for travel on the route the use of the GSW for cross-border coal trains to Prestwick from GSW line to support to Kilmarnock due to planned housing and operational considerations means forecast airport passenger growth. development at Annan, Dumfries and connection timings at Carlisle are poorly AS-I11: Increase frequencies between along the M74 Link Corridor. timed. This encourages passengers to Carlisle and Dumfries to hourly by in-filling drive to Dumfries, rather than use rail. existing timetable and deliver better connectivity to interchange stations. AS-I12: Increase frequencies between Carlisle and Glasgow to two- hourly by in- filling existing timetable and deliver better connectivity to interchange stations. Single track section between Gretna AS-I13/ GSW-I07: Additional freight capacity Junction and Annan imposes a significant from Hunterston, including the construction constraint on timetabling along with the of passing loops or electrification of the Kilmarnock to Barrhead section which Largs freight-only branch line to allow Forecast growth in cross-border freight also causes a timetabling / capacity additional train movements and timetable movements will place additional capacity AS-P6 constraint for passenger and freight flexibility. constraints on GSW route, particularly services. AS-I14: Revise track layout at Dumfries to between Annan and Gretna. Single track, 10 mile long route from enhance flexibility for freight traffic. Newton-on-Ayr to Mauchline Junction is AS-I15/ GSW–I08/ RRS-I05: Construct a critical for coal moving to England, but is rounding loop at Mauchline to improve a significant bottleneck given its slow line flexibility for freight trains, avoiding

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Reference Issues Description Issue Cause Interventions speed, lack of crossing point and single unnecessary use of line capacity to line token signalling. reposition freight trains. AS-I16/ RRS-I04: Replace passenger rail service and operate the GSW as a freight-

only route.

There are proposals to develop Constraints on access to Mossend and AS-I17: Improved freight access to Mossend Hunterston as a deep sea port with capacity south on the WCML. by creating additional freight loops to AS-P7 potentially significant demands for support forecast growth in inter-modal additional cross-border train paths from Conflicts with Ravenstruther coal traffic traffic. Mossend. on the Down WCML near Carstairs.

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13.4 Long List of Interventions

Table 13.1 includes the long list of interventions generated, mapped against the issues that each addresses. The table is relatively self-explanatory, but some key themes within the list of interventions should be highlighted: • New dedicated local services on the ECML and WCML, supported by new stations at East Linton / Reston and Symington / Beattock respectively; • Better train frequencies at both Lockerbie and Dunbar to establish intercity gateway stations to serve Dumfries & Galloway and East Lothian respectively; • Better connectivity at Carlisle for interchange passengers; • Higher frequency of passenger services on the GSW route; and • Additional capacity on the GSW, and a restructured passenger timetable to support freight growth.

13.5 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting and After STAG Phase 1 Assessment

13.5.1 Interventions Not Taken Forward at Shortlisting During shortlisting (see Appendix A), a number of the long listed interventions were not taken forward: • Intervention AS-I01 – the intervention to provide a local rail service between Edinburgh and Berwick-upon-Tweed / Newcastle was not taken forward because there would be insufficient passenger demand to justify a dedicated local rail service given the frequency of GNER and VXC trains. Also, additional passenger trains could affect performance of high speed passenger and freight services and necessitate additional infrastructure • Intervention AS-I04 – a new local service between Carlisle and Glasgow / Edinburgh serving new local stations is unlikely to have a robust business case. Intermediate population catchments are relatively sparse, and the new local service would be unlikely to attract sufficient patronage. Introducing a better service from Lockerbie, together with better car parking and bus-rail interchange would offer a more cost effective solution. New local passenger trains could also create performance issues for existing high speed passenger services and freight services without additional infrastructure. • Intervention AS-I11 – the reasons for the not taking forward the proposal for additional direct trains to Prestwick Airport from via the GSW route were discussed in the last chapter. • Intervention AS-I12 – increasing trains frequencies between Carlisle and Dumfries to 1tph were not taken forward because the potential population catchments are relatively sparse, and an hourly service is unlikely to be viable. Furthermore, the extra passenger train paths would restrict the opportunities for additional freight to use the route. This is important, given the potential role for this corridor as a principal Anglo-Scottish freight route. • Intervention AS-I16 – as discussed in the last chapter the intervention to operate the GSW as only a freight corridor was not taken forward because of the social inclusion and strengthening rural economies objectives set for rail.

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13.5.2 Interventions not taken forward after STAG Part 1 assessment The following intervention was not taken forward after completion of the STAG Part 1 assessment (see Appendix B): • AS-I02 – creation of an hourly service to Dunbar by stopping additional VXC trains was not taken forward. The delivery of this intervention would conflict with other objectives to improve cross-border journey times, and modifying the stopping pattern of longer distance services would not address the current inadequacies of the rail service, particularly to Edinburgh. A possible intervention has been identified to improve rail services to Dunbar, as part of the Edinburgh Suburban network.

13.6 Packaging, Prioritisation and Timing of Selected Interventions

The other interventions performed reasonably strongly in their STAG Part 1 assessments (see Appendix B). Our recommended approach to taking forward these interventions is summarised in Figure 13.1 overleaf. Figure 13.1: Anglo-Scottish Routes Interventions Prioritised by Timescale and Resource Scenario

Short to Medium to Immediate Medium Long Term Scenario Recommended Interventions Term Dependencies

A Innovative pricing structure for taxis to key rail-head stations on Co-operation with local taxi firms cross-border routes - Lockerbie, Dunbar and Carstairs

B Improved train frequencies from Revisions to the CrossCountry timetable, and Dunbar, and construction of a procurement of Local Trransport Strategy funding to new platform on the Down Line support interchange

Revised timetable for CrossCountry to improve Increased service frequency to service to Lockerbie to form a gateway intercity station Lockerbie, and improved for Dumfries & Galloway. Procurement of Local interchange facilities Transport Strategy funding to support interchange

Possible clockface timetable on other parts of the ECML could facilitate journey time improvements for ECML journey time improvements Anglo-Scottish services. Intervention may involve infrastructure improvements, particularly towards the London end of the route

Mauchline run round facility None

Regular two-hourly service between Carlisle and Glasgow Restructured passenger and freight timetable Central by amending existing services Capacity enhancements to the GSW route, including double Gauge clearance is only likely to be required if tracking between Eastriggs and Hunterston is developed as a container port. Gretna, signalling improvements, Aspirations to improve the Shotts route for passenger plus gauge clearance if services Hunterston is developed as a container port

Interventions Not Taken Forward Key Better use of capacity through service planning Change to the physical network Revision to Anglo-Scottish Change to rolling stock Other modes services to include extra stops at Dunbar

Scottish Executive Anglo-Scottish Interventions

Timescale for Interventions - Draft 11-Oct-05 j:\117897\timescale for intervention.xls

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There are some important points to note from the overall strategy shown in Figure 13.1: • It is recommended that a package of short to medium term interventions to improve capacity for freight on the GSW be developed. These include relatively small scale schemes to deliver better operational efficiency including the Mauchline run-round loop, to more strategic interventions comprising partial track doubling between Gretna and Annan, and reduction of signalling headways on the GSW (using solutions such as intermediate block signals). In the longer term, gauge clearance may also be required, particularly if Hunterston develops into a container port. This intervention should form the highest priority for the Anglo-Scottish routes, particularly given the potential benefits to other routes. These improvements could release capacity for other passenger service improvements, for example, enhancements to the Shotts routes. • Timetable revisions to deliver a regular two-hourly service between Carlisle and Glasgow Central via Kilmarnock forms an integral part of the strategy to optimize capacity on this key freight corridor through having a standard 2-hour timetable. These timetable changes should be accorded a high priority, since they complement the freight improvements described above. • In Scenario A the focus is on the delivery of small-scale improvements including improved interchange to other modes at stations and station improvements, especially at the larger stations. Development of the intervention to provide an innovative pricing structure for taxis to access gateway stations on cross-border routes including Lockerbie, Carstairs and Dunbar to benefit households without access to a car would be prudent. Although this will require some funding support, it represents a more affordable solution than the bus feeders, given the dispersed population catchments served by these stations. This would support other potential interventions, particularly availability of car parking at the gateway stations, plus improvements to bus-rail integration. • In Scenario B in the short to medium term we recommend improving train frequencies to Lockerbie to create “gateway” stations for intercity services serving Dumfries and Galloway. This is justified given the relatively small in-scope catchment for dedicated local services, together with capacity limitations of introducing extra services. Calling patterns of existing services should be revised to include an extra station stop on appropriate services. Passengers using VXC trains are generally less time sensitive, so calling patterns should be modified to call additionally at Lockerbie. The December 2005 delivers a further frequency improvement, and any further improvements must take account of the capacity impacts elsewhere on the network if the number of trains calling at Lockerbie is further increased. The combination of modal access improvements, together with any further scope to enhance train frequencies should form the highest priority for improving passenger services on the high speed Anglo-Scottish routes. • Journey time improvements on the ECML form a medium to long term intervention. The current stopping pattern for Edinburgh to London services is non-standard, and reflects the commercial requirements of the train operator. However, the development of a standard hour timetable between West Yorkshire and London could provide the stimulus for a similar timetable for trains to the North East and Scotland. This forms a lower priority, given the longer term timescale to implement this intervention. Figure 13.2 overleaf illustrates the recommended interventions schematically, showing their relationship to the present day railway network.

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13.7 The Consequences of Not Intervening

Failure will compromise the ability of rail to achieve more sustainable patterns of freight movements and improve cross-border freight links

Failure to accelerate ECML services in the longer term will leave air as the most important mode for travel to London with associated environmental and other disbenefits.

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Figure 13.2: Anglo Scottish Routes (Present Network, Scottish Ministers’ Committed Schemes and Prioritised Recommended Interventions from SPA)

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14 Conclusions and Next Steps There have been significant changes in the Scottish rail sector: Scottish Ministers have now committed to the delivery of seven rail projects, one of which was opened at the end of 2005. In parallel, First ScotRail has delivered improvements that have improved the performance and quality of railway services, and delivered more capacity on certain routes, while rail freight has continued to expand Furthermore, Scotland’s spatial and economic policy has been updated and important priorities have been set for transport. An important role has been set for rail in supporting the development of Scotland’s City Regions, facilitating plan-led growth and regeneration, and contributing to an inclusive, sustainable transport system. Scottish Ministers intend to use their new powers under the Railways Act 2005 to produce a rail strategy for Scotland: this SPA provides part of the evidence base for that strategy

14.1 The Strategic Implications of Policy

Rail’s is naturally strong and most efficient and effective when it focuses on high volume flows of passengers and freight, and routes with high densities of population or employment along them. This is because of rail’s fixed and costly asset base. By focussing on volume and density, rail’s role and strategic focus can be best defined. Otherwise there is a danger that rail tries to do everything and dilutes its effectiveness. This is important if best use is to be made of the Scottish rail network. If there is insufficient capacity to cater for all demands on a stretch of railway, choices will need to be made to prioritise rail’s future role and strategic focus. The implication of policy, when combined with rail’s natural strength in carrying high volumes and supporting high densities, is that rail’s future optimum role and strategic focus should be as follows:

Enabling rail commuting on high volume flows into Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Improving connectivity between Glasgow and Edinburgh by providing a fast, frequent, high quality service on the main route via Croy as well as utilising the other routes more effectively.

Providing a competitive inter-urban rail product in terms of journey time, frequency, arrival times and quality between the Central Belt and other major centres.

Enable sustainable commuting into regional centres where volumes and densities are high.

Enabling continued cross-border travel between Scotland and England given the road competitive journey times on the ECML and WCML for journeys of up to 3 hours. The WCML upgrade will improve the competitive position of rail for longer journeys to the Midlands and London.

Linking Scotland to its major airports.

Linking Scotland to its major ports and conveying high volumes and regular flows of freight.

Enabling continued travel from rural areas into regional centres where railways and stations presently exist, especially the network of rural routes .

14.2 Pressing Issues and Interventions

A number of pressing issues were identified in the last ten chapters that need to be addressed by early intervention. The resulting list of interventions are summarised below and should be the priority for development into implementable projects or timetable changes: each requires further development to fully evaluate their contribution to the overall transport objectives

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• A set of generic interventions to: • address peak overcrowding in the short term by ensuring maximum train lengths are operated in the peak on the busiest services and fares encourage shoulder peak travel; • improve integration with other modes through enhanced car parking and better interchange to other modes such as bus; • improve the on-train environment when rolling stock refurbishment or replacement creates an opportunity; • improve station quality by defining minimum standards for all stations and enhancing key interchange stations; • revise new stations policy to provide clear guidance to promoters and evaluators of new stations and which recognises the strategic role and focus for rail on different types of services and routes; and • deliver small-scale, capacity improvements to deliver capacity and performance benefits and to unlock known bottlenecks on the network.

• A set of specific interventions, of which the most important are:

Electrification and frequency enhancements on the Cumbernauld route

Relieving peak hour crowding on the Edinburgh to Glasgow via Croy and Falkirk High route through the introduction of service improvements on the Shotts and Cumbernauld routes, and the implementation of “softer” marketing policies to inform travellers of route options

Restructuring of the timetable through Fife to create more capacity (through separation of Aberdeen inter-urban services from a new Dundee – Edinburgh semi-fast service.

Resolving the role conflict on the inter-urban network linking Aberdeen and Inverness to the Central Belt and achieving a more car competitive rail product.

Increasing capacity for coal traffic on the Glasgow South Western route

Increase frequencies to North Berwick or Dunbar using the capacity freed by the eventual cessation of coal traffic to Cockenzie to.

Implementing timetable revisions on the Ayr corridor to introduce an additional hourly service to support plan-led housing growth and growth at Prestwick Airport

Creating additional infrastructure to allow 2tph between Glasgow and Kilmarnock to support plan- led growth

Platform lengthening at Bishopbriggs to allow 6-car on the services to operate to Stirling

Electrification of the , and diversion of trains to Glasgow Central Low Level

Resolving crowding issues on the Glasgow suburban network

Improving service frequencies to gateway stations at Dunbar and Lockerbie on the principal Anglo- Scottish routes

Further small-scale locally led incremental enhancements on the rural railway

14.3 Longer Term Emerging Issues and Interventions

Another set of issues were identified which are likely to emerge in the future or are dependent on growth have some degree of uncertainty. an event of which there is still some uncertainty. These issues need to be logged and built into rail strategy, but do not require immediate scheme development.

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Supporting plan-led growth between Edinburgh and Glasgow: improving the interaction and connectivity between the two cities by developing further rail services via Carstairs

Improvements to service frequencies between Aberdeen and Inverness

introduce a cross-Aberdeen service between existing stations from Inverurie to Stonehaven.

Introduction of a further hourly commuter service from Perth to Edinburgh

Reduction of journey times on the ECML

Continuing to cope with demand growth on the Glasgow suburban network. including extension of Whifflet services to Wishaw to serve the new development at Ravenscraig

Providing capacity for expansion of rail freight, particularly to the north east and at Mossend and Coatbridge.

The conversion of south Glasgow suburban lines to light rail to improve service quality and release terminal capacity to accommodate other service improvements

Implementation of recommendations for enhancements from the “Room for Growth” study of the rural railway in the Highlands.

14.4 Recognition of Longer Term Emerging Issues Within the Rail Strategy for Scotland

The Rail Strategy for Scotland will be based on a number of sources of evidence including the SPA, the NR RUS and the written consultation exercise on the Rail Strategy. It is hoped the conclusions presented in this report and the evidence in its associated Part 2 Technical Analysis Report, as well as our earlier Part 1 Report will be useful for the development of the Strategy. It is important that the strategy focuses on the role of rail in Scotland and that the links are clearly shown from taking action to address the most pressing issues to recognising the emerging issues in the future and their relative importance

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Appendix A Scheme Shortlisting

Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh-Glasgow Routes

Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Estimated Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Capital Costs Solution?

Intervention will have revenue implications; it is unlikely that the Implement peak pricing shoulder peak pricing regime will mechanism to encourage attract sufficient new passengers to Availability of technology to support Shortlisted – solution passengers to travel in the offset the revenue loss from Generic EG-P1 Yes innovative ticketing and pricing Low No to optimise existing shoulder peak and reduce passengers retiming their journey to structure. capacity over-crowding on the busiest the shoulder peak. Whilst subsidy trains payments to ScotRail may increase slightly, this may offset the timescales for major infrastructure investment.

Develop a marketing strategy to publicise the alternative routes between Edinburgh and Glasgow (following the Marketing strategy to highlight the Shortlisted - cost- Effective marketing campaign should completion of the Airdrie- difference journey choices for effective solution to attract additional demand given the EG-I01 EG-P1 Bathgate route, and the Yes passengers between Edinburgh and Low No improve public improved publicity of rail connections proposed improvements to the Glasgow, and the intermediate awareness of rail between Edinburgh and Glasgow Shotts route). The strategy will stations. services highlight the alternative routes between Edinburgh and Glasgow

Shortlisted – for Introduce longer trains to further appraisal, with tackle over-crowding. Longer trains will require platform some reservations Intervention would require Intervention would require platform extensions and infrastructure about necessity of the EG-I02 EG-P1 platform lengthening at Yes lengthening at stations including Queen constraints, particularly at terminus High No intervention given the stations including Glasgow Street and Edinburgh Waverley. stations mean this solution is unlikely to alternative proposals Queen Street and Edinburgh be effective. for the Edinburgh - Waverley Glasgow route. Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh-Glasgow Routes

Increase service frequency to 6tph to alleviate over-crowding on the busiest trains. Improved frequency would also attract additional patronage from the M8. There may be scope for some services to operate non- Shortlisted – for Intervention could require additional Significant infrastructure costs stop between Glasgow and further appraisal, with platforms at Glasgow Queen Street, associated with extra platforms and Edinburgh. Intervention could some reservations the construction of passing loops track capacity to support higher train require additional platorms at about necessity of the EG-I03 EG-P2 Yes between Cowlairs and Greenhill to frequencies. May require additional Medium No Glasgow Queen Street, and intervention given the allow express trains to overtake subsidy, given the increase in train construction of passing loops alternative proposals stopping services, and the use of the mileage, despite attracting additional between Cowlairs and for the Edinburgh - proposed turnback at Haymarket. patronage. Greenhill to allow express Glasgow route. trains to overtake stopping services (although journey times for stopping services may be penalised), and use the proposed turnback at Haymarket

Rejected - intervention would lead to revenue Business case may be marginal, since loss from the service Increase service frequency to Low cost intervention will require the the additional revenue generated from changes, and cause 6tph, with train frequencies EG-I04 EG-P2 Yes removal of some passenger trains the Edinburgh - Glasgow trains may Low No overcrowding for serving the intermediate serving intermediate stations not be sufficient to offset the revenue passengers using the stations reduced loss from other stations remaining local services to Glasgow and Edinburgh

Construction of a new City centre to city centre flows only dedicated high speed link account for about 50% of passenger Rejected – other between Edinburgh and Likely to be a very high cost journeys between Edinburgh and interventions are likely Glasgow to alleviate over- intervention with associated technical, EG-I05 EG-P2 Yes Glasgow. Journey distance is relatively High No to address the same crowding on existing services operational and environmental delivery small, diluting the benefit from the issue at lower cost and and deliver faster journey issues. High delivery risk. faster journey time, and many journeys risk. times between the city centres are not centre-to-centre. and support economic growth Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh-Glasgow Routes

2tph operating semi-fast between Glasgow Central and Edinburgh. Principal stopping pattern is Uddingston, Shotts, West Calder, Livingston South and Haymarket. Other intermediate stations between Holytown and Slateford served every 2 hours with a skip-stop calling pattern as demand from these stations is insufficient to merit a more frequent service. Procurement of additional rolling stock This intervention should be Intervention could generate a to operate the higher train frequencies. marketed as an alternative reasonable business case, since faster Other services may need to be revised service between Edinburgh journey times will allow the route to be to create sufficient terminal capacity at Shortlisted - service EG-I06 EG-P3 and Glasgow, and delay the Yes marketed as an alternative Edinburgh - Low Yes Glasgow Central and Edinburgh. quality and adequacy timescales for improving train Glasgow service. Improved service will Signalling and junction improvements frequencies via Croy. Higher also support population growth in West east of Midcalder Junction may be train frequencies may require Lothian. required. signalling improvements between Slateford and Midcalder, and re-doubling of Midcalder Junction. Additional platforms may also be required at Glasgow Central and Waverley. Opportunity to extend the North Berwick trains to West Clader to provide a local service and support population growth in West Lothian.

Deliver improved capacity for Upgrade the GSW route to improve the Shotts route by diverting Potential significant benefits if the GSW Shortlisted - improved signalling headways and increase the EG-I07 EG-P3 coal via the GSW route Yes is upgraded. Intervention could also High No capacity for strategic permitted gauge clearance for the following improvements to the deliver capacity for other routes. freight movements route. GSW route Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh-Glasgow Routes

Construction of a new connection at Dedicated service to Edinburgh is Lanark Junction to facilitate train unlikely to generate a robust business New rail service between movements towards Carstairs. case. Improvements planned for Rejected - poor EG-I08 EG-P3 Lanark and Edinburgh to Yes Low No Potential requirement for signalling / Carstairs, together with aspirations for business case support plan-led growth junction improvements east of improved frequencies between Midcalder Junction. Glasgow Central and Edinburgh.

Improve station facilities at Robustness of business case is Addiewell to support the dependent on the expansion of Rejected - poor Generic EG-P3 planned growth in usage, if the Yes No major barrier to implementation. Low Yes Addiewell Prison to attract additional business case proposals for an adjacent passengers. prison are delivered

Enhance the frequency of trains between Glasgow Rail market to Edinburgh from Line capacity on WCML to Carstairs Central and Edinburgh via Motherwell is already significant Shortlisted - service EG-I09 EG-P4 No and from Midcalder Junction to Low No Motherwell and Carstairs to despite the relatively low frequencies quality. Edinburgh may need to be improved. supplement existing GNER (trains currently run every 2 hours). and VXC frequencies.

Improved local bus services to Business case likely to be relatively Rejected - lack of in- Generic EG-P4 Carstairs to enhance access to No No particular operational constraints weak given the dispersed land use Low No scope demand to the rail network patterns support a bus feeder

Introduce additional parking Will increase the catchment of the rail provision, particularly at Croy Shortlisted – low cost Complexity and timescale for network, particularly for commuters and where low density residential solution to improve Generic EG-P5 Yes implementation is dependent on land encourage off-peak travel by rail (when Low No development reduces the access to the rail availability. existing car parks are usually already attractiveness of bus-based network full) Park & Ride.

Identify opportunities for bus- May require financial support initially to Shortlisted – low cost based feeder services to Low risk. May require existing routes to cover the operating costs. Could be solution to improve Generic EG-P5 Yes Negligible No Falkirk, Polmont and be modified to serve the rail stations. funded through the submission of Local access to the rail Linlithgow Transport Strategies. network Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh-Glasgow Routes

Electrification of the Cumbernauld Line would allow 2tph to be diverted from Queen Street, freeing track Would attract an increased number of and platform capacity. passengers to the Cumbernauld route Frequencies on the Overhead electrification, and improved and could abstract passengers from Shortlisted -scheme Cumbernauld Line could be signalling capacity to support the higher Croy to help 'control' future parking could generate increased so encouraging train frequencies, construction of the requirement. Although the scheme significant benefits for more passengers to use the EG-I10 / GN-I02 EG-P5 Yes Garngad link to facilitate access to could relieve parking at Croy, the Medium No the Cumbernauld Line service - particularly those Glasgow Queen Street Low Level. construction of another station on this and generate spin-off currently using Croy Park and Construction of new station and route could create capacity problems, benefits for parking Ride - so easing demand on revisions to signalling layout. given the mixture of fast and stopping availability at Croy. the Croy route into Glasgow trains. Some demand is likely to be and 'controlling the parking abstracted from existing stations. requirement at Croy. These trains could either use the Charing Cross turnback, or be extended across Glasgow

Expand existing Park & Ride Shortlisted - facilities at Uddingston to Likely to increase passenger revenue potentially increased support possible patronage Availability of land adjacent to the Generic EG-P5 Yes as more passengers are able to park at Low No rail demand for growth on the Shotts route stations stations. commuting and leisure from service frequency trips. enhancements

Rejected - alternative solutions are available to increase freight Removal of conflicting Reduction of passenger frequencies capacity, for example, passenger services to allow Identification of passenger services to will have a negative impact on EG-I11 EG-P6 Yes Negligible No additional passing freight frequencies to be remove from the timetable revenues, so the business case is loops to support increased unlikely to be attractive aspirations for additional passenger and freight services

Increase the line capacity for the Glasgow South West via Upgrade the GSW route to improve Dumfries. Current capacity Potential significant benefits if the GSW Shortlisted - improved EG-I12 / ED-I10 / signalling headways and increase the EG-P6 constraints on the GSW mean Yes is upgraded. Intervention could also High No capacity for strategic GSW-I10 permitted gauge clearance for the some coal trains are forced to deliver capacity for other routes. freight movements route. use the ECML, and are routed via Haymarket West Junction. Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Inter-Urban

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Refurbish rolling stock to improve the on-board Potential to attract additional users off environment, particularly for Relatively easy intervention to deliver, the A9, particularly business Shortlisted - service Generic IU-P1 / IU-P4 business passengers, for Yes but rolling stock availability during Low Yes passengers, so likely to generate a quality example, more tables, plugs upgrade may be an issue reasonable financial case. for lap-tops in standard class, better on-board refreshments

Introduce hourly service to Perth and Inverness from Edinburgh with trains alternating between limited Calling pattern would require stop (Aviemore, Kingussie and construction of 1-2 passing loops Pitlochry), and all intermediate Enhanced service frequency with between Ladybank and Perth, and stations. Faster journey time regular hourly trains has potential to IU-P1 / IU-P5 / other passing loops north of Perth. Shortlisted - improved IU-I01 will help rail compete more Yes attract more traffic, particularly Medium Yes IU-P10 Procurement of additional rolling stock. service adequacy effectively with car drivers via business passengers, from the A9. Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine scheme the A9. Majority of trains from Financial support may still be required. creates sufficient additional capacity to Inverness should be operate the higher train frequencies. timetabled to Edinburgh, with trains at Perth timed to connect with services between Glasgow and Aberdeen.

Improved train frequencies require an infrastructure solution to increase capacity Additional capacity is needed to deliver between Ladybank and Perth improved frequency between Perth (possibly 1-2 passing loops and Edinburgh (1tph all day, and 2tph depending on train Construction of an additional 1-2 Shortlisted - improved IU-I02 / ED-I08 IU-P1 / IU-P3 Yes during the peak). Significant potential Low Yes frequencies), and other passing loops service adequacy demand could be abstracted from the infrastructure enhancements A9 / M90 if the rail service was north of Perth, for example, improved. between Dalwhinnie & Newtonmore and Pitlochry & Dunkeld). Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Inter-Urban

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Improved frequency to Inverness via Fife is Additional capacity is needed to deliver deliverable following the Completion of the Stirling - Alloa - improved frequency between Perth completion of the Stirling - Kincardine scheme will release train and Edinburgh (1tph all day, and 2tph Shortlisted - improved IU-I03 IU-P1 Alloa - Kincardine link, Yes paths to Fife. Additional capacity during the peak). Significant potential Low Yes service adequacy although improved frequency between Ladybank and Perth (1-2 demand could be abstracted from the to Inverness requires extra passing loops) A9 / M90 if the rail service was capacity to maintain timetable improved. resiliency.

Introduce earlier arrival / departure times to Inverness to support forecast economic Intervention is consistent with the growth in the Highland. Procurement of additional rolling stock Shortlisted - service IU-I04 IU-P1 Yes higher service frequency proposed for Low Yes Additional rolling stock will to operate a more frequent timetable quality the route. need to be procured to deliver the improved train frequencies.

Revise stopping pattern on the Aberdeen services to Glasgow and Edinburgh to reduce journey times and improve rail competitiveness versus car. Majority of demand originates from the Various timetabling constraints at Trains could only call at the largest stations, and faster journey Shortlisted - service IU-I05 IU-P1 Yes Usan, Fife Circle and the approaches Low Yes principal stations north of times would improve competitiveness quality to Glasgow and Edinburgh. Dundee (Edinburgh services), of rail versus car on the A90. plus Perth & Stirling (Glasgow trains). Other trains will be introduced / modified to serve the intermediate stations Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Inter-Urban

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Introduce a new hourly service to Dundee from Edinburgh operating semi-fast via Kirkcaldy. Spare line capacity The Fife Circle is one of the busiest via Fife is delivered following routes on the network and demand is the completion of the Stirling – concentrated to a small number of Alloa – Kincardine scheme. busy stations with a high number of Trains will call at stations Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine scheme will new houses and jobs planned nearby. Shortlisted - service IU-I06 / ED-I03 IU-P1 between Dundee and Yes create sufficient capacity for the extra Inclusion of extra stops north of the Low No quality Markinch. Train routeing via train paths via Fife. Markinch to Dundee line will allow inter- Cowdenbeath will significantly urban journey times to be reduced. improve connectivity to the Train routeing via Cowdenbeath will north, optimise existing line significantly improve rail connectivity to capacity via Kirkcaldy. This North Fife and Tayside. could allow journey times for all Aberdeen trains to be improved

Improved rail service between Aberdeen and Inverness to Hourly service will require additional Additional housing planned will help to support planned economic line capacity. Procurement of extra strengthen demand and more frequent Shortlisted - service IU-I07 IU-P1 / IU-P6 and housing growth. Yes Low No rolling stock to operate the higher train rail service will help to attract more quality Additional infrastructure frequencies. motorists from the competing A96. capacity required if regular hourly service is introduced

Examine the scope for bus-rail May require financial support initially to Shortlisted - low cost feeder services to the principal Low risk, may require existing routes to cover the operating costs. Could be solution to improve Generic IU-P2 stations, particularly if Yes Negligible No be modified to serve the rail stations. funded through the submission of access to the rail residential densities are Local Transport Strategies. network relatively high.

Introduce additional parking Will increase the catchment of the rail provision, particularly at Shortlisted - low cost Complexity and timescale for network, particularly for commuters stations where low density solution to improve Generic IU-P2 Yes implementation is dependent on land and to encourage off-peak travel by rail Low No residential development access to the rail availability (when existing car parks are usually reduces the attractiveness of network already full). bus-based Park & Ride Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Inter-Urban

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Hourly service from Inverness Additional capacity is needed to deliver to Edinburgh all day would be Completion of the Stirling - Alloa - improved frequency between Perth supplemented by additional Kincardine scheme will release train and Edinburgh (1tph all day, and 2tph hourly peak trains operating Shortlisted - improved IU-I08 IU-P3 Yes paths to Fife. Additional capacity during the peak). Significant potential Low Yes semi-fast via Kirkcaldy to service adequacy between Ladybank and Perth (1-2 demand could be abstracted from the support planned housing passing loops) A9 / M90 if the rail service was growth from north Fife and improved. Perth

Improved train frequencies require an infrastructure solution to increase capacity Additional capacity is needed to deliver between Ladybank and Perth improved frequency between Perth (possibly 1-2 passing loops and Edinburgh (1tph all day, and 2tph depending on train Construction of an additional 1-2 Shortlisted - improved IU-I02 / ED-I08 IU-P3 / IU-P1 Yes during the peak). Significant potential Low Yes frequencies), and other passing loops service adequacy demand could be abstracted from the infrastructure enhancements A9 / M90 if the rail service was north of Perth (possibly improved. between Dalwhinnie and Newtonmore and Pitlochry to Dunkeld).

Refurbish rolling stock to improve on-board environment, particularly for business passengers, for Potential to attract additional users off Relatively easy intervention to deliver, example, more tables, plugs the A9, particularly business Shortlisted - service Generic IU-P4 / IU-P1 Yes but rolling stock availability during Low Yes for lap-tops in standard class, passengers, so likely to generate a quality upgrade may be an issue better on-board refreshments reasonable financial case. – higher quality on-board should offer better competition with road

Calling pattern would require construction of 1-2 passing loops Introduction of an hourly Enhanced service frequency with between Ladybank and Perth, and service between Perth and regular hourly trains has potential to IU-P5 / IU-P1 / other passing loops north of Perth. Shortlisted - improved IU-I01 Inverness, will improve Yes attract more traffic, particularly Medium Yes IU-P10 Procurement of additional rolling stock. service adequacy interchange for onward business passengers, from the A9. Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine scheme passengers north of Inverness Financial support may still be required. creates sufficient additional capacity to operate the higher train frequencies. Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Inter-Urban

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Improved rail service between Aberdeen and Inverness to Hourly service will require additional Additional housing planned will help to support planned economic line capacity. Procurement of extra strengthen demand and more frequent Shortlisted - service IU-I07 IU-P6 / IU-P1 and housing growth. Yes Low No rolling stock to operate the higher train rail service will help to attract more quality Additional infrastructure frequencies. motorists from the competing A96. capacity required if regular hourly service is introduced.

Deliver Invernet Phase 2 Intervention may require additional Rejected- hourly (more frequent rail services capacity west of Elgin to maintain Intervention will incur lower operating service between IU-I09 IU-P6 between Inverness and Elgin) Yes existing performance, given the costs than alternative improvements Low No Aberdeen and to support planned housing existing single track layout and between Aberdeen and Inverness. Inverness likely to growth on the Moray Firth network utilisation. deliver larger benefits

Rejected - bus based Improve bus services on the solution will offer Bus based solution will not deliver a A96 corridor between No major issues to address, bus limited benefits to step change in public transport quality IU-I10 IU-P6 Inverness and Elgin to support Yes timings must complement rail Low No support economic to support economic growth in planned population growth for departure times growth, and improve Highland the Moray Firth connectivity to Aberdeen

Review timetabling of freight and passenger trains to confirm there is sufficient capacity to accommodate Shortlisted - forecast freight traffic. IU-I11 IU-P7 Yes No action required No action required Negligible Yes supporting freight Implement proposed gauge capacity enhancement to W10 clearance to Elgin, and expand terminal capacity if required

New rail service between Shortlisted- bus- Perth and Arbroath would Identification of train paths that do not Financial subsidy would be required to based solution may support housing growth conflict with express services to support the service although faster offer better value for IU-I12 IU-P8 planned for Dundee, and Yes Aberdeen. Benefits would be improved inter-urban trains would help to reduce Low No money, but a rail improving the rail service for if delivered in conjunction with revised the magnitude of the operating solution may deliver Dundee's travel to work express services to Aberdeen. subsidy. other benefits catchment. Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Inter-Urban

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Shortlisted- construction of a new Need to confirm signalling has Station would not be served by New station at Dundee West station is dependent sufficient capability to accommodate Edinburgh trains. Could be served by Generic IU-P8 to support housing growth Partial Low No on the introduction of extra station without affecting line proposed local service between Perth planned for Dundee. the stopping service capacity. and Arbroath. between Perth and Arbroath

Partially shortlisted - Station improvements at recommend Arbroath, Montrose, No major issues affecting Usage is very low at some stations, so improvements to Carnoustie, Broughty Ferry implementation; improvements should business case is unlikely to be robust Generic IU-P8 No Low Yes Arbroath, Montrose, and Monifieth could be linked to possible service unless linked to a package of service and Carnoustie if they encourage additional trips by improvements to maximise benefits. improvements are used as 'hub' rail. stations

Introduce new / improved bus services between Carnoustie Could generate a reasonable financial and Dundee to improve public case since bus operating costs are transport to the residential Shortlisted - improved Relatively easy to deliver improved bus lower than rail and vehicle capacities areas along this corridor to connectivity to IU-I13 IU-P8 Yes services given investment in bus may be more suitable for the relatively Low No support plan-led housing and intermediate rail priority measures for the corridor. low demand. High frequency bus economic growth. This stations solution will improve connectivity to the intervention would allow train principal hubs. services to intermediate stations to be reduced

Rejected - bus Enhanced bus service will offer Introduction of enhanced bus solution is unlikely to Relatively easy to deliver improved bus relatively low operating costs links between Inverurie, offer a competitive IU-I14 IU-P9 Yes services given investment in bus compared with the rail-based options. Low No Aberdeen and Stonehaven to journey time, given the priority measures for the corridor. Journey times are likely to be slow support housing growth potential benefits from compared with rail alternative a rail based solution Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Inter-Urban

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Improve rail frequencies serving Aberdeen travel to work area through the Shortlisted - service Infrastructure upgrades estimated to introduction of Aberdeen enhancements can be cost £45m. Additional rolling stock Crossrail Phase 2. Phase 2 Operating subsidy will be required delivered using may need to be procured for the extra envisages enhancing the although housing growth in Aberdeen marginal rolling stock IU-I15 IU-P9 Yes Aberdeen-Inverness trains, but Medium No Aberdeen to Inverness service travel to work area will strengthen resources to deliver a extensions to Inverurie could be to hourly and extending trains financial case step-change in quality accommodated within the existing train to Stonehaven, and extending to support planned-led fleet. 1tph from Edinburgh / growth Glasgow from Dyce to Inverurie

Improve rail service serving Aberdeen travel to work area Construction of new stations at Estimated capital costs is £90m. through the introduction of Kintore, Aberdeen South, , Significant housing and employment Aberdeen Crossrail Phase 3. Shortlisted - service IU-I16 IU-P9 Yes plus further infrastructure growth will be required to justify the High No This builds on Phase 2 by quality enhancements (two passing loops procurement of additional dedicated adding a dedicated half-hourly north of Aberdeen). units. service between Stonehaven and Inverurie

Calling pattern would require construction of 1-2 passing loops Enhanced service frequency with Introduction of an hourly between Ladybank and Perth, and regular hourly trains has potential to IU-P10 / IU-P1 / service between Perth and other passing loops north of Perth. Shortlisted - improved IU-I01 Yes attract more traffic, particularly Medium Yes IU-P5 Inverness would help alleviate Procurement of additional rolling stock. service adequacy business passengers, from the A9. seasonal overcrowding. Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine scheme Financial support may still be required. creates sufficient additional capacity to operate the higher train frequencies.

Construction of additional Shortlisted - passing loops with capability Construction of additional passing Intervention is likely to generate a intervention supports to accommodate freight trains loops, retimetabling of passenger and positive business case, since enhancement of IU-I17 IU-P11 Yes Low Yes to support higher train freight services to support higher train additional capacity will support both passenger and freight frequencies using the frequencies passenger and freight enhancements services to the Highland Main Line Highland Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh Local Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Procurement of additional rolling stock Strengthen existing rolling Both rail and road corridors between to allow existing rolling stock stock formations on the Fife Fife and Edinburgh are constrained, so Shortlisted -capacity Generic ED-P1 Yes formations to be strengthened. Depot Low No Circle to make better use of train lengthening may represent a cost and service quality capacity may be an issue if fleet size existing line capacity. effective solution to boost capacity. increases significantly.

This solution will identify a pricing Introduce peak pricing to strategy to incentivise passengers to Whilst longer trains can provide a cost- encourage journeys to be travel in the shoulder peak, making effective solution to maximise line Shortlisted - better ED-P1 / ED-P3 Generic made during the shoulder Yes better use of existing capacity. capacity, platform extensions may not Low No use of existing / ED-P5 peak to optimise existing line Intervention could be linked to be a cost-effective solution, given the capacity capacity. strengthening train formations in the infrastructure constraints. shoulder peak periods.

Restructure the Fife timetable Fife routes are already approaching following the diversion of the Review timings of passenger trains to capacity, and the road alternative is Shortlisted - improved Longannet coal trains to ED-I01 ED-P1 Yes optimise capacity following diversion of capacity constrained. Intervention Low Yes service adequacy, and Stirling. This would allow two freight services should generate a positive business reduced overcrowding additional passenger services case per hour to operate

Split the existing Fife Circle trains to improve timetable Opportunity to save a new rail market Restructure the Fife local timetable to Shortlisted - improved flexibility, and revise the at Levenmouth and lower performance deliver improved network performance. network performance ED-I02 ED-P1 / ED-P2 Cowdenbeath services to Yes penalty payments as a result of the Low Yes Upgrade the Levenmouth line for and serving new rail terminate at Levenmouth via improved timetable resiliency, so passenger services. markets the freight-only line from business case should be reasonable. Methil

Operate a new hourly service from Edinburgh to Dundee Significant housing growth is planned with a semi-fast calling for Fife, and improved rail connectivity pattern. Trains would serve via Cowdenbeath will support these Additional hourly train path is available the busiest stations in Fife, objectives. The service will also Shortlisted - capacity ED-I03 / IU-I06 ED-P1 Yes to Fife following the completion of the Low Yes and serve intermediate improve links to the north from and service quality Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine link stations north of Markinch to Cowdenbeath to Fife, Tayside and Dundee allowing improved Edinburgh, so the intervention should journey times on the inter- deliver a robust business case urban trains from Aberdeen.

Improved signalling Solution would reduce signalling Investment may be justified from better Shortlisted - improved ED-I04 ED-P2 / ED-P10 Haymarket to Inverkeithing to Yes headways to deliver improved network performance and lower Low Yes network capacity improve timetable resiliency timetable flexibility. performance penalty payments. Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh Local Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Enhance bus links from Glenrothes town centre to Operation of dedicated shuttles to Low density residential development Shortlist - better Generic ED-P2 Glenrothes with Thornton Yes connect the station with the main could make it difficult to develop a Low No access to the rail station (current service is only residential areas robust business case network hourly) Enhance existing bus service Bus based solution could provide a from Levenmouth to Introduction of dedicated shuttles to cheaper solution to the rail alternative, Shortlist - better Glenrothes with Thornton Generic ED-P2 Yes improve journey times compared with although this intervention would not Low No access to the rail station - current frequency is 3 car resolve the potential performance network / hour with relatively long problems journey times

Re-open the Grangemouth branch line for passenger Insufficient line capacity for new direct services to serve the existing Would involve upgrading the existing service to Edinburgh and a shuttle to Rejected - due to poor ED-I05 ED-P2 Yes Low Yes population catchment and freight-only branch line Falkirk Grahamston is unlikely to be business case reduce the need to drive to particularly attractive. Polmont and Falkirk

Bus based solution will deliver a more Bus feeder from Grangemouth No major issues to address, Shortlisted - better affordable solution than rail alternative, Generic ED-P2 to Polmont to improve access Yes intervention will require operation of Low Yes access to the rail and provide better connectivity to to the local rail network dedicated shuttles network principal stations

Opportunity to introduce a passenger service from Alloa to Edinburgh via the freight- Scheme may not generate a positive only line to serve the planned Potential capacity constraints on the business case in the short term, given housing growth areas in single track section, given freight flows Shortlisted - viability the low line speed, limited signalling ED-I06 ED-P2 Clackmannanshire. Line Yes to / from Longannet, although Stirling - Low Yes is dependent on the capability, and lack of capacity to speed may need to be Alloa - Kincardine will partially alleviate Longannet coal flows operate a regular service may reduce improved, and capacity this bottleneck the attractiveness of a rail service enhanced, particularly across the Forth Bridge and the approach to Waverley

Bus feeder from Alloa and Bus-based solutions would provide an Introduction of dedicated bus shuttles Shortlisted - better Kincardine to Dunfermline for alternative, more flexible solution than Generic ED-P2 Yes to improve journey times compared Low Yes access to the rail interchange with services on rail alternative, and provide better with car network the Fife Circle connectivity to the principal stations Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh Local Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Construction of a new station at Greenloaning / Blackford to support housing growth south Shortlisted - new of Perth near Auchterarder. Existing station at Gleneagles has station would serve Proposed station could limited passenger use (about 60 Construction of a new station, access major housing replace the existing station at passengers per day), and the new Generic ED-P2 Yes from the A9, review signalling Low No development more Gleneagles, and be served by station would be more conveniently capability for the route. conveniently than the extending one of the Dunblane located to serve the proposed major existing Gleneagles trains to Perth, and improving housing development station the attractiveness of interchanges at Perth and Stirling.

Train plan needs to ensure 6-car trains Shortlisted - maintain Peak hour services from Intervention will incur higher operating operate into Waverley during the AM / enhance seating Bathgate must be operated in costs, although the additional capacity Generic ED-P3 Yes and PM peak hours, although the Low Yes capacity from Bathgate 6-car formations to control will be required from a service additional capacity will largely be following the service crowding levels adequacy perspective redundant west of Bathgate improvements

Review timetabling of existing services to improve resiliency and reduce the potential risk of train delays. Trains could be split, so the Airdrie- Bathgate trains terminate in Requires a review of existing Service revisions are likely to deliver Shortlisted - better ED-I07 ED-P4 central Glasgow using a Yes timetabling to identify scope to service performance benefits, and should not Negligible Yes operational turnback facility at Charing patterns require additional units to be procured. performance Cross. The Helensburgh / Balloch trains could operate to other destinations in east Glasgow (for example, Cumbernauld)

Doubling the track between Construction of additional Scheme could generate a reasonable Portobello Junction and infrastructure may be advantageous Shortlisted - better business case given improved Generic ED-P5 Niddrie Junction would Yes from a timetabling perspective, Low No operational timetable flexibility following the improve the flexibility of particularly given the extended performance completion of Borders rail. timetable planning operation of services to Galashiels. Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh Local Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Enhance the quality of bus-rail Schemes could be funded by Local Alternative Shortlisted - better Improve the quality of rail-bus Generic ED-P6 Yes interchange to reduce the reliance of Transport Strategies prepared by funding Yes access to the rail interchanges in Fife park and ride individual councils. mechanism network

Improve the quality of bus / rail interchange in Edinburgh, Tram routes will offer a step change in Worsening traffic congestion affecting and examine the scope to public transport to Edinburgh Airport Greater Edinburgh means public Shortlisted - better restructure bus routes once Generic ED-P6 Yes and Leith / Grantown. Requires co- transport alternatives are becoming Negligible Yes access to the rail Edinburgh Tram Lines 1 and 2 operation with local operators to increasingly important to the private network have been completed, given restructure some routes car the greater dispersal of employment in Edinburgh

Significant housing growth planned for Rejected - new station Existing signalling must be sufficient to Fife and Kirkcaldy is already one of the will have capacity New station of Kirkcaldy East accommodate extra dwell time at the busiest stations. Alternative station implications for the to improve access to the rail Generic ED-P6 Yes new station. Mixture of semi-fast and would reduce the access pressure on Low No Fife network, network, and reduce pressure stopping trains could create difficulties Kirkcaldy. Line capacity may be particularly given the on Kirkcaldy for line capacity. insufficient, given the mixture of semi- additional trains fast and stopping trains. proposed

Rejected - new station could be served by New station at Wormit to Existing signalling must be sufficient to Unlikely to generate a robust business proposed stopping Generic ED-P6 improve access to the rail Yes accommodate extra dwell time at the case, since the catchment area is Low No train to Dundee, but network from North Fife new station. relatively small potential business case is relatively weak

Construction of a new station Station could serve a twin function, at Bannockburn. Serves the Construction of a new station. Impact and therefore generate a reasonable Shortlisted - better proposed residential of an additional stop on line capacity Generic ED-P6 Yes business case. May require additional Low Yes access to the rail catchment, and provides an south of Stirling given the mixture of line capacity, significantly increasing network attractive park & ride for fast and stopping trains. the capital costs for the scheme. motorists using the M9

Construction of a new station at Causeway. Serves the Construction of a new station. Impact Potential station catchment is small, Rejected - impact on proposed residential of an additional stop on line capacity Generic ED-P6 Yes and is less well connected to the M9 Low No line capacity and weak catchment, and provides an south of Stirling given the mixture of for strategic park and ride. business case attractive park & ride for fast and stopping trains. motorists using the M9 Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh Local Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Construction of a new station at Cowie. Serves the Construction of a new station. Impact Potential station catchment is small, Rejected - impact on proposed residential of an additional stop on line capacity Generic ED-P6 Yes and is less well connected to the M9 Low No line capacity and weak catchment, and provides an south of Stirling given the mixture of for strategic park and ride. business case attractive park & ride for fast and stopping trains. motorists using the M9 A new station would serve the Construction of a new station proposed 3000-5000 planned new at Winchburgh to serve the 3- Construction of a new station will have Shortlisted - better homes and could generate a Generic ED-P6 5,000 new houses and offer Yes capacity implications given its Low No access to the rail reasonable business case. New station opportunities for strategic park proximity to Edinburgh Airport network would have line capacity implications & ride though Development of a strategic Park & Ride facility at Musselburgh to alleviate Although an additional stop would parking constraints, Expand existing car parking provision, incur a journey time penalty for through Shortlisted - better Generic ED-P6 particularly at Waverley, to Yes and lengthen the platforms to passengers, a limited number of Low No access to the rail serve East Lothian and east accommodate longer trains services could call at the strategic park network Edinburgh. Proposed Tram & ride. Line 3 could also serve the new facility

Increase the capacity of the Ladybank to Perth route by constructing 1-2 passing Construction of 1-2 passing loops. Will loops. Additional capacity require the completion of the Stirling- Likely to generate a reasonable Shortlisted - would allow train frequencies Alloa-Kincardine scheme to create ED-I08 / IU-I02 ED-P7 Yes business case, given the planned Low Yes adequacy of the rail to Perth to be improved (an sufficient capacity via Fife. Potential for housing growth in Fife and Perth. service hourly service to Inverness is a new station at Newburgh, given proposed – IU02), with extra capacity enhancements. peak trains to encourage commuting).

Orbital rail service is unlikely to Shortlisted - better Upgrade the Edinburgh South Upgrade the route and construct new generate a robust business case, and access to the rail ED-I09 ED-P8 Suburban Line for passenger No stations. Passenger trains would need operation of additional trains would Low No network for services to interwork with existing freight trains. also affect the reliability of other train communities south of paths into Edinburgh Waverley Edinburgh Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh Local Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Increase the line capacity for the Glasgow South West via Upgrade the GSW route to improve Dumfries. Current capacity Potential significant benefits if the Shortlisted - improved ED-I10 / EG-I12 / signalling headways and increase the ED-P8 constraints on the GSW mean Yes GSW is upgraded. Intervention could High No capacity for strategic GSW-I10 permitted gauge clearance for the some coal trains are forced to also deliver capacity for other routes. freight movements route. use the ECML, and are routed via Haymarket West Junction.

Construction of additional Construction of additional passing loops between Infrastructure provision could be infrastructure to allow express trains to Shortlisted - network Generic ED-P9 Monktonhall Junction and Partial justified by improved performance and Low Yes overtake local passenger services and capacity Drem Junction to improve network reliability freight trains. timetable flexibility

2tph operate during the peak periods Scheme could generate a robust case but frequency drops to 1tph during the given the housing growth forecasted Operate 2tph all day to North daytime. Additional frequencies would for East Lothian. May require a Shortlisted - Berwick, since the current ED-I11 ED-P9 Yes need to be timetabled around existing passing loop on the branch line. A new Low Yes inadequacy of the rail daytime frequency of 1tph on passenger and freight services. Better park and ride facility at Longniddry service weekdays is inadequate frequencies would enhance the could also strengthen the financial adequacy of the existing service. case for intervening.

Unlikely to attract a significant passenger catchment. The new trains Re-open the Longniddry to Rejected - unlikely to operating on the branch line would Haddington branch line to Restore the former alignment for generate satisfactory ED-I12 ED-P9 Yes also adversely affect capacity east of Medium No improve rail access to this passenger services. business case and Waverley and restrict the opportunities settlement capacity implications. to improve train frequencies from North Berwick

Upgrade the existing rail Unlikely to attract a significant Rejected - unlikely to connections from Blindwells to Upgrade existing freight-only line for passenger catchment. Extra services ED-I13 ED-P9 No Medium No generate satisfactory the ECML for passenger passenger services would have capacity implications east business case services. of Waverley Expand existing car parking Intervention will deliver a stronger Shortlisted - better facilities at Longniddry to Generic ED-P9 No Expansion of the existing car park business case than re-opening the Low No access to the rail encourage park & ride trips branch line network from Haddington Introduce an express bus No particular technical issues to Intervention may offer a lower cost service from North Berwick to Shortlisted - better address, buses must be conveniently solution than rail, although would be ED-I14 ED-P9 supplement the hourly Yes Low No access to the rail timed given the existing rail departure less effective in supporting population weekday off-peak service network times growth in East Lothian frequency Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Edinburgh Local Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Shortlisted - although Construction of the Charleston intervention is Revised layout at Charleston Junction chord to improve operational Construction of the south-to-west dependent on the may have limited benefits due to the re- Generic ED-P10 flexibility for freight trains to Yes connection would avoid freight trains Low No introduction of routeing of freight via the Stirling-Alloa- Longannet via the Forth reversing at Dunfermline passenger services Kincardine connection. Bridge from Alloa to Edinburgh

Rejected - alternative solutions are available to increase freight Reduction of passenger frequencies Removal of passenger capacity, for example, Identification of passenger services to will have a negative impact on ED-I15 ED-P10 services to accommodate Yes Negligible No additional passing remove from the timetable revenues, so the business case is additional coal traffic loops to support unlikely to be attractive aspirations for additional passenger and freight services

Upgrade single track sections Business case will be dependent on from Redford Junction towards the quantity of additional freight. Shortlisted - although ED-I16 ED-P11 Markinch and Kirkcaldy to Yes Improve capacity Intervention could offer minor Low Yes dependent on the increase line capacity for performance benefits for passenger volume of freight freight trains Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow SW Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Branding of the network to ‘Scottish Suburban Station’ Identify those stations with the Shortlisted – low cost Relatively low cost solution to provide standards with minimum minimum service frequency, and solution to improve consistency of station facilities and Generic GSW-P1 standards for service Yes develop ideas through Local Transport Low Yes attractiveness of rail improve service quality to encourage frequency, station facilities, Strategies to improve interchange, offer and encourage seamless public transport journeys and passenger information passenger information, waiting facilities. modal shift systems

Review existing allocation of May require amendments to the Restructured train sets would alleviate rolling stock to revise the existing train plan to support the revised overcrowding on the Ayr route without Shortlisted - service Generic GSW-P1 balance of three and six car Yes diagramming. No platform extensions Low No incurring significant additional rolling quality improvement. trains between the Ayr and should be required, since a mixture of 3 stock lease costs. Port Glasgow routes and 6-car trains currently operate.

Rejected - although Reduce the service frequency the current rail service to Gourock to 2tph, and Revised service pattern could support appears over- redeploy the spare rolling passenger growth on the Ayr route, specified, forecast Reallocation of train capacities and stock to the Ayr route to although passengers on the Gourock population growth in GSW-I01 GSW-P1 Yes frequencies to serve existing / future Negligible No support the planned housing passengers will face a small dis- the Glasgow Clyde demand for the two routes growth on the Ayrshire coast benefit reflecting the frequency Valley Structure Plan and forecast expansion at reduction. will increase the Prestwick Airport population and jobs served by this corridor

Shortlisted - scheme Introduce skip-stop calling offers capacity benefits Intervention could generate a pattern to serve Hillingdon and opportunities for reasonable business case, given the West, Hillingdon East and Revise stopping patterns of existing wider service population growth on the Ayrshire Cardonald stations to make services, and modify the franchise enhancements. Bus GSW-I02 GSW-P1 Yes coast and the forecast growth at Negligible No better use of existing capacity, specification allowing these stations to routes serving this Prestwick Airport. Solution offers and support improved train be served by skip-stopping trains corridor are relatively scope for a low-cost intervention to frequencies to the Ayrshire good, this partially create additional capacity coast explains why station usage is relatively low

Shortlisted - capacity Better signalling between Availability of signalling resources is Improved network performance and upgrade needed to Paisley and Kilwinning to relatively scarce. May require additional opportunities to strengthen service Generic GSW-P1 Yes Low No support future growth support improved train interventions elsewhere to maximise frequencies to Ayr could be sufficient and maintain network frequencies to Ayr the benefits to justify investment performance Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow SW Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Revise stopping pattern of Existing passenger usage is relatively Wemyss Bay / Gourock trains small, and corridor is served by an to stop all trains at the Extra stopping services would restrict attractive bus route. Business case is Rejected - capacity intermediate stations between the timetabling of trains to / from unlikely to be robust, as additional constraints and GSW-I03 GSW-P1 Yes Medium No Paisley Gilmour Street and Glasgow Central unless capacity was station stops at these intermediate insufficient passenger Glasgow Central delivering improved. stations will require additional line demand. 4tph for Hillington West / capacity given the mix of stopping and Hillington East / Cardonald non-stopping trains.

Introduce additional 1-2tph on the Ayr route to support Intervention is likely to require capacity Requires procurement of additional housing growth and Prestwick enhancements between Paisley rolling stock as well as the Shortlisted - service GSW-P1 / GSW- Airport expansion. Intervention Gilmour Street and Glasgow Central to GSW-I04 Yes infrastructure costs for the additional Low No quality improvement P2 may require additional support additional train frequencies; line capacity to support the extra for the Ayr corridor capacity between Paisley and and improvements between Paisley and services Glasgow Central to support Kilwinning. higher train frequencies.

Capacity restrictions east of Paisley Construction of a wholly new line will Rejected - unlikely to Construct a new rail alignment Gilmour Street after GARL is result in high capital costs. Introduction be sufficient capacity between Bridge of Weir and constructed are unlikely to facilitate an of a quality bus link to an existing east of Paisley GSW-I05 GSW-P1 Yes Medium No Johnstone to support forecast attractive rail service. General technical station (Johnstone) and associated Gilmour Street for a population growth in Ayrshire. constraints associated with the interchange facilities likely to offer new service to construction of new rail alignments. better value for money. Glasgow Central.

Upgrade GSW as a potential Upgrade the GSW route to improve Potential significant benefits if the route for imported coal - Shortlisted - improved signalling headways and increase the GSW is upgraded. Intervention could GSW-I06 GSW-P1 intervention could allow train Yes High No capacity for strategic permitted gauge clearance for the also deliver capacity benefits for other frequencies via Kilwinning to freight movements route. routes, for example, Kilwinning increase

Upgrade station facilities at Prestwick Airport to enhance Shortlisted - improved waiting environment for Station upgrade could generate a station facilities given Generic GSW-P2 passengers - proposed Yes Enhancement of station facilities positive business case, given the Low Yes forecast increase in enhancements include staffing forecast throughput in passengers passenger throughput and better passenger information Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow SW Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Likely to generate a robust business Improve facilities at Ayr and Delivery of station and interchange Shortlisted - better case; revenue should increase with Generic GSW-P3 Troon stations to encourage Yes improvements through the Local Low No access to the rail additional passengers attracted to the bus-rail integration Transport Strategy framework. network rail service.

Shortlisted - Expand existing park and ride Likely to increase passenger revenue potentially increased facilities at Kilwinning, Availability of land adjacent to the Generic GSW-P3 Yes as more passengers are able to park Low No rail demand for Johnstone and other major stations at stations. commuting and leisure stations trips.

Identify opportunities to deliver Likely to generate a robust business better bus-rail interchange at Delivery of station and interchange Shortlisted - better case; revenue should increase with Generic GSW-P3 the principal stations to reduce Yes improvements through the Local Low No access to the rail additional passengers attracted to the the pressure on car parking Transport Strategy framework. network rail service. availability

Improve bus-rail integration at Enhance the quality of bus-rail Schemes could be funded by Local Alternative Shortlisted - better Kilmarnock Station to reduce Generic GSW-P3 Yes interchange to reduce the reliance of Transport Strategies prepared by funding Yes access to the rail the reliance on car parking park and ride individual councils. mechanism network provision at the station

Additional freight capacity Uncertainty regarding the future coal from Hunterston, including the flows from Hunterston, and the Shortlisted - extent of construction of passing loops, Electrification of the Largs branch line possible development of a container the intervention is GSW-I07/ AS- GSW-P4 or electrification of the freight- Yes between Hunterston Junction and Holm port. If there was insufficient capacity Low Yes dependent on the I13 only branch line to allow Junction on the branch line, this could restrict growth in freight traffic additional train movements the potential growth for freight traffic to / from the port. and timetable flexibility serving the port.

This intervention could demonstrate a Construction of a rounding positive business case, since other loop facility ay Mauchline to infrastructure solutions to increase Shortlisted - improved GSW-I08 / AS- GSW-P4 / GSW- improve flexibility of freight Construction of a rounding loop to Yes capacity may be delayed or not Low No capacity for strategic I16 / RRS-I05 P6 trains, avoiding unnecessary improve operational flexibility required. This would deliver freight movements use of line capacity to re- operational benefits by reducing the position trains number of trains via Kilwinning Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow SW Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Shortlisted - exact definition of the Develop a routeing strategy Relatively small scale interventions intervention is GSW-I09 GSW-P4 for freight trains originating Yes Implement additional capacity solutions could generate a positive impact by Low No dependent on the from Hunterston facilitating additional freight traffic quantity of freight originating from Hunterston

Increase the line capacity for the Glasgow South West via Upgrade the GSW route to improve Dumfries. Current capacity Potential significant benefits if the Shortlisted - improved GSW-I10 / ED- signalling headways and increase the GSW-P4 constraints on the GSW mean Yes GSW is upgraded. Intervention could High No capacity for strategic I10 / EG-I12 permitted gauge clearance for the some coal trains are forced to also deliver capacity for other routes. freight movements route. use the ECML, and are routed via Haymarket West Junction.

Construction of Glasgow The Strathbungo link offers the lowest Crossrail that could facilitate SPT has reviewed various options to capital costs for the options assessed. Shortlisted - cross-city journeys, improved deliver Crossrail, but upgrading the Some passengers experience slightly significant efficiency GSW-I11 GSW-P5 network efficiency and Yes Strathbungo link for passenger services longer journey times, although this is Medium No benefits for rail reduced platform between Shields Junction and Bellgrove partially offset by higher train network in Glasgow. requirements at Glasgow offers the lowest capital costs frequencies and better access to Central. central Glasgow for some journeys.

This intervention could demonstrate a Construction of a rounding positive business case, since other loop facility ay Mauchline to infrastructure solutions to increase Shortlisted - improved GSW-I08 / AS- improve flexibility of freight Construction of a rounding loop to GSW-P6 Yes capacity may be delayed or not Low No capacity for strategic I16 / RRS-I05 trains, avoiding unnecessary improve operational flexibility required. This would deliver freight movements use of line capacity to re- operational benefits by reducing the position trains number of trains via Kilwinning

Housing growth at Kilmarnock will Train lengthening on the strengthen financial case for Requires procurement of additional Shortlisted - improved Glasgow to Kilmarnock route intervention. Capacity constraints may Generic GSW-P7 Yes rolling stock to lengthen existing train Low No capacity on existing to support urban - suburban result in train lengthening being a cost- formations service. population shift effective alternative to infrastructure solutions Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow SW Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Infrastructure solution Existing single track between Barrhead Existing service is inadequate between Kilmarnock and and Kilmarnock prevents regular 2tph particularly when competing with the Barrhead to allow 2tph to Shortlisted - improved GSW-P7 / GSW- service; an irregular 2tph operates in upgraded M77 motorway. Improved GSW-I12 Glasgow Central all day, with Yes Low No frequencies for an P8 the peak flow direction. Construction of frequencies will help to attract new additional capacity for freight, existing service. a passing loop at Stewarton would passengers. Housing growth at supporting the urban - permit 2tph Kilmarnock suburban population shift.

Improvements to Busby Single-lead configuration of the junction Relatively small capital cost will Shortlisted - capacity Junction to allow better Generic GSW-P7 Yes is a capacity constraint; the intervention increase timetable flexibility for Low Yes and service quality timetable flexibility for the East will upgrade the junction Kilmarnock and East Kilbride routes. enhancements. Kilbride and Kilmarnock routes

Availability of train paths east of Expansion of freight terminal Intervention will require the construction Paisley Gilmour Street is very limited, Shortlisted - business at Elderslie, and extension of of a new inter-modal terminal. given the mixture of passenger and case is dependent on GSW-I14 GSW-P8 the Paisley Canal branch line, Yes Additional capacity will be required for High Yes existing freight movements. Business achieving continued and associated capacity the to support the case will be dependent on the freight growth enhancements on the branch. extra freight movements development of the freight terminal Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow North Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Deliver infrastructure improvements between Queen Street and Cowlairs to Will involve the construction of a new Shortlisted - relatively Will improve service reliability by improve timetable flexibility – third track that could potentially cause low cost signalling relieving pressure on the station double tracking the junction at disruption to services. Completion of solution will improve approach providing a dedicated bi- GN-I01 GN-P1 Cowlairs South and the Yes this additional track may be challenging High Yes capacity and directional line for the Cumbernauld construction of third bi- in engineering terms given the operational flexibility trains, but capital costs are likely to be directional track for local trains constrained approach to Glasgow approaching Queen prohibitive improving timetable resiliency Queen Street station. Street for local and inter-urban services

Electrification of the Cumbernauld Line would allow 2tph to be diverted from Queen Street freeing track and platform capacity. Frequencies on the Cumbernauld line could be increased, so encouraging Electrification would improve journey Shortlisted - service more passengers, particularly Completion of the overhead times and service quality. Train quality improvements those currently using Croy electrification and construction of new GN-I02 / EG-I10 GN-P1 Yes frequencies could also be improved to Medium Yes and capacity Park & Ride - so easing connections to Alexandra Parade line to 4tph, attracting a higher proportion of improvements at demand on the Edinburgh - facilitate cross-Glasgow journeys demand originating from Cumbernauld. Queen Street. Glasgow route into the High Level Station. The train frequencies from Cumbernauld could also be improved, and new connections constructed allowing cross-Glasgow journey opportunities.

Construction of an alternative Park & Ride at Castle Cary Attractiveness of the park & ride will be (Allandale) between Croy and dependent on delivering other Construction of a new station, with Shortlisted - better Falkirk adjacent to Junction 4 improvements to the Cumbernauld GN-I03 GN-P1 Yes adequate secure parking located close Low No access to the rail M80. Line capacity issues line, including enhanced frequencies, to the station network require careful consideration new journey opportunities and better given the current line service quality. utilisation Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow North Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Spare terminal capacity at Queen Street created by diverting passenger services from Cumbernauld could be allocated to enhance the Maryhill services and the stopping trains from Stirling / Intervention assumes that trains from Shortlisted - service Enhanced frequencies to Stirling may Dunblane (3tph on both Cumbernauld are diverted from Queen adequacy for the generate a reasonable business case, GN-I04 GN-P1 / GN-P8 routes). Improved frequencies Yes Street. Additional capacity may be Low No Stirling corridor to given the forecast population growth towards Stirling may require required on the Stirling route, given the support population planned for the corridor the construction of dynamic mix of fast and stopping services growth passing loops between Cowlairs and Greenhill allowing express trains to overtake stopping services. This could increase journey times by about 5 minutes.

Review timetabling of existing services to improve resiliency, and reduce the potential risk of delays. Trains could be Intervention should generate a turned back using a facility at Shortlisted - improved Review of timetabling of North electric reasonable business case through GN-I05 GN-P2 Charing Cross. Helensburgh / Yes Low No timetable reliability and services to improve resiliency. improved network resiliency and lower Balloch trains could be flexibility performance penalty payments. operated to / from Cumbernauld to improve timetable resiliency on both routes

Improve existing signalling Shortlisted – medium Intervention could improve network capability between Bellgrove Enhancement of existing signalling cost solution to Generic GN-P2 Yes reliability and reduce the level of Low Yes and Finnieston to improve capability increase existing line performance penalty payments timetable resiliency capacity

Improved layout of the single Likely to have a reasonable business Shortlisted – medium lead junctions at Craigendoran Junction improvements would deliver case, although intervention should be cost solution delivering Generic GN-P2 and Bellgrove would enhance Yes improved network reliability as well as Low No supported by a wider timetable capability and timetable flexibility and timetable flexibility. adequacy study. flexibility. resiliency Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow North Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Strengthen existing rolling Intervention could generate a Shortlisted – medium stock formations on the North Intervention would require procurement reasonable business case, given the cost solution to Generic GN-P3 Electric route to support Yes of additional rolling stock to strengthen Low No significant housing growth planned for increase existing line housing growth in the Clyde existing train formations. the Glasgow Clyde Valley. capacity Valley

Increased capacity between Shortlisted - project Finnieston and Hyndland Capacity bottlenecks elsewhere on the could deliver improved would improve network Involves construction of additional network could restrict the opportunities operational efficiency GN-I06 GN-P3 performance, and could allow Yes tracks and revisions to junction at Low Yes to maximise the potential benefits of given convergence of additional trains to be Finnieston. this intervention routes from Queen introduced. Solution could Street and Central comprise 3 or 4 tracking

Branding of the network to ‘Scottish Suburban Station’ Identify those stations with the Shortlisted – low cost Relatively low cost solution to provide standards with minimum minimum service frequency, and solution to improve consistency of station facilities and Generic GN-P3 standards for service Yes develop ideas through Local Transport Low Yes attractiveness of rail improve service quality to encourage frequency, station facilities, Strategies to improve interchange, offer and encourage seamless public transport journeys and passenger information passenger information, waiting facilities. modal shift systems

Shortlisted – solution Would improve capacity, and enhance to improve timetabling Improve the junction layout at Additional capacity will help to improve timetable resiliency given the flexibility given the Generic GN-P4 Westerton to improve Yes timetable reliability and reduce Low No committed plans to increase train frequency increase timetable flexibility performance penalty payments. frequencies to 4tph. planned for Milngavie branch line.

Shortlisted – solution Double-track the Milngavie Intervention would improve capacity, to improve timetabling Additional capacity will help to improve branch line to increase and enhance timetable resiliency given flexibility given the Generic GN-P4 Yes timetable reliability and reduce Low No capacity, and enhance the committed plans to increase train frequency increase performance penalty payments. timetable resiliency frequencies. planned for Milngavie branch line. Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow North Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Rejected – Examine the opportunities to intervention conflicts run fewer, but longer trains on with objective to selected routes, so the May free up timetable capacity but Conflicts with objectives Revenue neutral if number of seats enhance service number of seats from each likely to be politically difficult to for service adequacy unchanged, however there is a quality and social GN-I07 GN-P5 station is unchanged . implement , and conflicts with Negligible No reducing the potential reduction from reduced inclusion issues. Intervention could improve aspirations to run a metro style high attractiveness of rail service frequency. Intervention would also timetable resiliency, but could frequency service. be difficult to deliver reduce the adequacy of the from a political network perspective

Procure replacement rolling stock for the existing Class 314 / 318 / 320 fleet. Examine Rejected – rolling the feasibility of high density Class 314 / 318 / 320 units are due to Alternative rolling stock could offer stock deployment is rolling stock with lower seating become life-expired. Intervention would crowding relief benefits but there are a not confined to specific requirements on the Milngavie involve replacing existing stock with number of operational difficulties. GN-I08 GN-P6 Yes Low No routes, so the number to Springburn, and Dalmuir to units offering lower seating densities Unlikely that a dedicated fleet could be of units will need to Bellgrove via Clydebank and higher total capacities to deployed, since the vehicle increase, reflecting the routes. Rolling stock would accommodate additional demand. requirement would increase. revised composition need to be deployed on these dedicated routes to be effectively utilised

Likely to be revenue neutral or positive dependent on land prices and scope for additional revenue generation. Will Shortlisted – low cost Improve Park & Ride facilities increase catchment of commuter rail Relatively low risk intervention. Risk is solution to increase Generic GN-P7 at Airdrie, Helensburgh and Yes network, encourage mode switch. Low No likely to lie in land price and availability. reach of commuter rail Easterhouse stations Likely to be particularly helpful in network encouraging off-peak travel by rail (when existing car parks are often already full)

Potential for funding through Local Transport Strategy framework with Enhance Partick Station to Shortlisted – medium individual Councils responsible for their Likely to generate a reasonable encourage interchange cost solution to Generic GN-P7 Yes submissions. Integration with other business case with potential to attract Low Yes between rail, bus and the increase reach of modes will improve access to the rail new public transport users. Underground commuter rail network network is consistent with wider objectives for integrated transport. Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow North Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Construction of dynamic passing loops between Cowlairs and Greenhill will Generic GN-P8 improve timetabling flexibility As GN-I04 As GN-I04 As GN-I04 As GN-I04 As GN-I04 As GN-I04 for passenger services, and create additional capacity for freight

Improvements to the existing Better connectivity to a major Motherwell to Cumbernauld interchange station in central Scotland service by extending trains to Routing Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine freight Rejected - existing would significantly enhance the GN-I09 GN-P9 Stirling, providing important Yes traffic via Larbert will pose a capacity Low Yes service is used by very attractiveness of the new service. connectivity with an important constraint at 'Carmuirs Triangle'. few passengers However, there may be insufficient interchange in central capacity for additional freight trains Scotland

Shortlisted - although Lengthen Bishopbriggs Intervention is likely to require platform extensions platforms to accommodate 6- Platform extensions to 6-car trains will significant capital costs to lengthen the are relatively complex car trains creating additional be expensive because of the proximity platforms, given these constraints. given the constraints Generic GN-P9 Yes Medium Yes line capacity to support of signals and underbridge structures at Operational and patronage benefits at Bishopbriggs, this is population growth on the both ends of the station. are unlikely to be sufficient to offset a more cost effective Stirling corridor. these costs. solution than selective door opening.

Introduce selective door Rejected - significant Solution is unlikely to be more opening at Bishopbriggs to Intervention will require modifications to capital costs required affordable than platform lengthening, Generic GN-P9 allow 6-car trains to operate Yes the train fleet allowing selective door Low Yes to achieve these given the number of trains to be without lengthening the opening benefits by modifying modified. platform the train fleet

Intervention assumes that trains from Shortlisted - service Enhanced frequencies to Stirling may Introduction of an additional Cumbernauld are diverted from Queen adequacy for the generate a reasonable business case, GN-I10 GN-P9 hourly service to Stirling to Yes Street. Additional capacity may be Low No Stirling corridor to given the forecast population growth support population growth required on the Stirling route, given the support population planned for the corridor mix of fast and stopping services growth Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow SE Routes

Contributes to Estimated Problem to be Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Delivery of SPA Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved Case Solution? Objectives? Costs

Likely to have a positive business Will support planned 10,000 new Shortlisted – Construct a new station at case, given the number of new houses homes in commuter hinterland. Effects improved access to Ravenscraig to support the proposed. Small journey time dis- GSE-I01 GSE-P1 Yes on line capacity and journey times for Low No the rail network to significant planned housing benefit for through passengers, but existing passengers will need to be support new housing development this will be offset by possible frequency considered development improvements.

Review detailed train loadings on services via Glasgow Central Negligible impact on operating costs, Shortlisted, more Intervention will require small scale Generic GSE-P1 to identify requirement to Yes although amendments to the train plan Negligible No effective use of revisions to the train operating plan reallocate or strengthen rolling should help to alleviate crowding levels existing rolling stock stock formations

Extend the existing services from Whifflet to Ravenscraig to Current 2tph may be inadequate given support planned housing growth. the forecast number of new houses. Existing service pattern may be Shortlisted - improved GSE-I02 GSE-P1 Line from Ravenscraig to Yes Completion of overhead electrification, inadequate, given the potential Low Yes access to the rail Whifflet may need to be and procurement of additional rolling demand using this service network electrified if other interventions stock are delivered

Electrification of the Whifflet and Electrification could enhance service Holytown routes, allowing these Electrification will incur relatively high Shortlisted - service quality, and attract additional trains to be diverted via Glasgow capital costs. Intervention would quality and adequacy passengers. Extension of trains from Central Low Level to create improve platform availability at Glasgow of the rail service to GSE-I03 GSE-P1 Yes Whifflet could also serve the major Low Yes additional platform capacity at Central High Level station. Trains would the major housing housing development at Ravenscraig, the High Level station. Trains also need to use the turnback facility development at with the new patronage supporting the could utilise the existing turn- near Anderston. Ravenscraig business case for improvements. back facility at Anderston.

Branding of the network to Identify those stations with the Shortlisted – low cost ‘Scottish Suburban Station’ Relatively low cost solution to provide minimum service frequency, and solution to improve standards with minimum consistency of station facilities and Generic GSE-P1 Yes develop ideas through Local Transport Low Yes attractiveness of rail standards for service frequency, improve service quality to encourage Strategies to improve interchange, offer and encourage station facilities, and passenger seamless public transport journeys passenger information, waiting facilities. modal shift information systems

Construction of additional Additional loops likely to have a robust reception sidings to maintain Potential disruption / blockades whilst business case, since the extra wider network performance, Shortlisted - wider GSE-I04 GSE-P2 Yes the new reception sidings are capacity could support the expansion Low Yes particularly if the inter-modal operational benefits connected to the main network of the inter-modal freight market in network in Scotland is Scotland expanded. Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow SE Routes

Contributes to Estimated Problem to be Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Delivery of SPA Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved Case Solution? Objectives? Costs

Shortlisted - delivery of a new terminal is Construction of new terminal at dependent on the Complex project to construct a new Coatbridge to support the Additional terminal capacity may be proposed development GSE-I05 GSE-P2 Yes terminal and connect it to the Scottish High Yes expansion of the inter-modal required to support inter-modal growth of Hunterston as a rail network network in Scotland container port, and capacity constraints at Mossend

Procure replacement rolling stock for the Class 314 / 318 and 320 fleet – note high density High density rolling stock formations Small increase in patronage and Rejected - intervention formations are not suitable for are not suitable for these services to revenue due to the higher service will not deliver a step- GSE-I06 GSE-P3 Yes Low Yes the Motherwell / Lanark / Larkhall, Lanark and Motherwell due to quality. Revenue growth will help to change in service Larkhall routes due to the the relatively slow journey times offset the higher lease costs quality relatively long journey times from Glasgow Central

Review timetabling of services Shortlisted – low cost Intervention should improve timetable to improve resiliency, intervention to improve Generic GSE-P4 Yes No major issues likely to address resiliency, and reduce performance Negligible Yes particularly following the capacity and service penalty payments introduction of Larkhall trains reliability.

Relatively high cost intervention could be financially viable if extra trains Better signalling between Addition of extra signals will deliver allowed, although a robust business Shortlisted - Generic GSE-P4 Finnieston and Rutherglen to Yes Low Yes better timetable flexibility case could be harder to construct operational benefits deliver better timetable flexibility purely on grounds of timetable flexibility. Track layout and number of flat Improve the junction between junctions may limit the opportunities for Intervention could improve timetable Shortlisted - Generic GSE-P4 Rutherglen and Newton to Yes improved performance or additional resiliency, and reduce the performance Low Yes operational benefits deliver better timetable flexibility services to alleviate existing crowding penalty payments problems Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow SE Routes

Contributes to Estimated Problem to be Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Delivery of SPA Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved Case Solution? Objectives? Costs

Examine the feasibility of converting the Cathcart Circle and the branch lines to Newton and Neilston to light rail, possibly diesel tram-train. This proposal could remove up to 20 trains during the peak period from Glasgow Central creating Shortlisted – deliver additional platform capacity for Could remove up to 20 trains during the Light rail may offer better value for network flexibility, other services. Frequencies peak period from Glasgow Central, money than existing heavy rail service maximise could be improved, due to the creating additional platform capacity for which is subsidised. Light rail could effectiveness of other GSE-I07 GSE-P4 Yes High Yes more flexible signalling other services. Conversion of existing deliver improved service quality and interventions and arrangements offered by light alignment to light rail, and construction enhance access to Glasgow city improve social rail. A light rail conversion would of new route into Glasgow city centre centre inclusion, in particular improve access to Glasgow city on Castle Milk Estate. centre, using a alignment north of Pollokshields West. There is also potential to serve new catchment via a branch line serving Castlemilk Estate that experiences very low levels of car ownership.

Procurement of additional trains, limited Intervention may not generate an Rejected - intervention Examine the potential for train number of 6-car trains currently attractive business case, since the will not deliver a step- GSE-I08 GSE-P4 lengthening to increase capacity Yes Low Yes operate, so platform lengthening is not rolling stock will only be required at change in service on the Cathcart Circle required certain times of the day quality

Examine the scope for improved timetable flexibility, given Requirement for an intervention is Small scale infrastructure Shortlisted – low cost revisions to the track layout and Generic GSE-P5 Yes dependent on longer term future for enhancements may be justifiable to Negligible Yes intervention to improve other flat junctions that will coal traffic support the coal flows to Longannet capacity for freight primarily benefit passenger trains Increase line capacity on the Electrification of the freight-only branch Intervention should generate a positive Hunterston branch line by Shortlisted - GSE-I09 GSE-P5 Yes will improve timetable flexibility for other business case, given the wider Low Yes electrifying the freight-only operational benefits parts of the network in central Scotland timetabling / operational benefits section Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Glasgow SE Routes

Contributes to Estimated Problem to be Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Delivery of SPA Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved Case Solution? Objectives? Costs Enhance Motherwell Station Good integration with other modes will Funding may be outside scope of SPA interchange to encourage a Shortlisted - better improve access to the rail network and but likely to generate a reasonable Generic GSE-P6 higher percentage of rail Yes Low Yes access to the rail is consistent with wider objectives for business case. Potential for funding passengers to use buses to network integrated transport. through Local Transport Strategy access to the network Enhance Hamilton Station Good integration with other modes will Funding may be outside scope of SPA interchange to encourage a Shortlisted - better improve access to the rail network and but likely to generate a reasonable Generic GSE-P6 higher percentage of rail Yes Low Yes access to the rail is consistent with wider objectives for business case. Potential for funding passengers to use buses to network integrated transport. through Local Transport Strategy access to the network Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Rural North

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Deliver a faster rail service to Single track route may constrain the Improved connectivity between Wick from Inverness by effectiveness of a skip-stop calling principal stations may offer some Rejected - poor RRN-I01 RRN-P1 Yes Low No adopting a skip-stop calling pattern. Exclusion of stations would benefits but alternative solutions will be business case. pattern conflict with social inclusion objectives. needed for the other stations.

Very small reduction in journey times Construction of a chord at Journey time savings to Thurso and and passenger numbers benefiting is Rejected - poor RRN-I02 RRN-P1 Georgemas to reduce journey Yes Wick; also improves network Low Yes unlikely to produce a positive business business case. times efficiency. case.

Proposed hourly service from Perth to Inverness (potential intervention to solve IU-P1) Improved train frequencies to Would require procurement of Shortlisted - improved Generic RRN-P2 will enhance frequencies on Yes Inverness will reduce waiting time, and Negligible Yes additional rolling stock. service reliability. the Highland Line and reduce encourage through trips. wait times at Inverness for onward connections

Encourage better use of Dalmuir Station as an Would improve interchange for Likely to be negligible capital cost for a interchange station to the passengers from the West Highland scheme which could encourage Shortlisted - service Generic RRN-P3 Yes Negligible Yes Glasgow Electric network for line onto the Glasgow electrified interchange to the Glasgow electric quality improvement. passengers from the West network network. Highland Line

Strategic journey time improvements and the Shortlisted - Potentially complex construction of Will involve considerable capital construction of a crossing over intervention could new alignment, and likely capacity expenditure to construct the new RRN-I03 RRN-P4 the Dornoch Firth linking Tain Partial High No deliver a step-change problems of interworking semi-fast alignment, but would be unlikely to with Golspie. This would allow in service quality for trains with existing services. attract significant passenger volumes. semi-fast services to Thurso / the Far North Line Wick from Inverness

Extend the existing commuter Poor business case; passenger Would encourage commuting to services north from Lairg and volumes from north of Tain and Rejected - poor RRN-I04 RRN-P5 Yes Glasgow and Inverness by rail and Low No Arrochar & Tarbet to serve Arrochar are too low to justify business case. discourage car use. wider catchments extension of services.

Examine the feasibility of Introducing coach services is a franchised coaches to improve cheaper alternative to upgrading rail Shortlisted - improved public transport frequency and Will enhance frequency on the RRN-I05 RRN-P6 Yes infrastructure to provide an enhanced Low No public transport complement existing rail Highland Region. frequency. Will also reduce reliance on service. services to in-fill between subsidy. trains Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Rural North

Examine the feasibility of A number of pilot schemes have been RRN-I06 / RRS- May increase patronage and revenue Shortlisted - service RRN-P6 ‘lower cost, innovative Yes identified in England, but the potential Low No I03 on rail services in rural areas quality improvement. revenue solution’ model impacts are still relatively unknown.

Rejected - scope to Refurbish Class 156 (West Better quality rolling stock may increase patronage by Highland Line) / 158 (Far Rolling stock availability may be increase patronage, although trains refurbishment is very Generic RRN-P7 North Lines) units to deliver a Yes affected while units are being Low Yes operate only five times per day, with a limited due to better on-board travelling refurbished. limited business market. infrequent running of environment trains. Construction of a new station at Conon Bridge will deliver New station is unlikely to generate a better access to the rail Rejected - poor Generic RRN-P8 Yes Construction of a new station. robust business case given proximity Low No network to discourage business case. to adjacent stations. passengers driving to Dingwall / Muir of Ord

Review the passenger loadings using the 2-hourly Shortlisted - outcome service from Inverness to Tain Economic growth and plan-led housing Additional capacity may be required if is dependent on the RRN-I07 RRN-P8 / Invergordon to determine if Yes on the Cromarty Firth will determine Low No train frequencies are increased success of Invernet demand justifies a more the robustness of the business case Phase 1 frequent service to support housing demand

Identify requirements for additional network capacity Capacity constraints on existing given the additional passenger network, given committed Growth in freight traffic to/from Shortlisted - potential RRN-I08 RRN-P9 train movements north of Yes improvements to enhance passenger Cromarty could require additional <£10m Yes for growth in rail Inverness following the frequencies from December 2005 on capacity to be created. freight. implementation of Invernet the Tain Line. Phase 1 Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Rural South

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Construction of a new station; need to New station at Dunragit / determine whether existing signalling In scope catchment is unlikely to be Rejected - poor Generic RRS-P1 No <£10m No Glenruce can accommodate an additional sufficient to justify a new station. business case. station. Will allow timetable restructuring to Restructure timetable to ensure it meets the needs of operate trains at times that are 'conventional' users, rather than rail Shortlisted - RRS-P1 / RRS- Revised timetable could increase rail RRS-I01 linked to the requirements of Yes passengers. Also facilitates Low Yes enhanced service P4 patronage from Stranraer. other passengers, rather than development of Stranraer interchange quality. ferry users to encourage better bus-rail integration.

Improved rail service from Girvan to Kilmarnock to improve rail access for ferry Business case should be strengthened Will require timetables to be passengers to Ayr and by operating through services south of RRS-P2 / RRS- restructured by extending one of the Shortlisted - service RRS-I02 Kilmarnock (for interchange Yes Kilmarnock towards Girvan, and Low Yes P3 trains from Kilmarnock to Girvan via quality improvements. with the GSW), with some providing a convenient interchange Troon trains extended to Stranraer with the GSW forming a Stranraer to Kilmarnock shuttle

Development of Stranraer Relocation of Stranraer station Funding package has been agreed Shortlisted - better Generic RRS-P2 interchange to encourage Yes following the transfer of ferry services with the Scottish Executive and Low Yes access to the rail better bus/ rail linkages to Cairnryan Dumfries & Galloway Council network Rejected - poor business case. An Introduce direct services to improved shuttle Prestwick Airport from South Extra services will require additional service from Girvan Limited catchments on GSW line to RRS-I03 / AS-I10 RRS-P3 West Scotland to improve Yes line capacity and procurement of <£10m No with conveniently Prestwick Airport connectivity and support rolling stock. timed interchange at forecast passenger growth Kilmarnock offers a more cost-effective solution. Examine the feasibility of A number of pilot schemes have been RRS-I03 / RRN- introducing lower cost / May increase patronage and revenue Shortlisted - service RRS-P4 No identified in England, but the potential <£10m No I06 innovative revenue solutions on rail services in rural areas quality improvements. impacts are still relatively unknown. model Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Rural South

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Regular two hourly passenger service Rejected, intervention Intervention would create additional could allow freight timings to be would conflict with the Replace passenger rail capacity for freight, although a restructured. Bus replacement service social inclusion service to allow GSW to replacement bus service would be would lead to a significantly slower RRS-I04 / AS-I17 RRS-P4 Yes Low Yes objective, and re- operate as a dedicated freight required to serve the A76 / A75 journey time. Replacement of the timetabling solution corridor corridor between Kilmarnock and passenger service is unlikely to be would deliver Carlisle necessary unless significant freight additional capacity growth is achieved.

Rejected - scope to Better quality rolling stock may have a increase patronage by Refurbish Class 156 units to Rolling stock availability would be small benefit on patronage, although refurbishment is very Generic RRS-P5 enhance on-board travelling No affected while units are being there is a limited business market to <£10m Yes limited due to the small environment refurbished. attract. Units are generally fit for business market using purpose these trains.

Construction a rounding loop facility at Mauchline to Upgrade the GSW route to improve Potential significant benefits if the Shortlisted - improved RRS-I05 / GSW- improve operational flexibility, signalling headways and increase the RRS-P6 Yes GSW is upgraded. Intervention could High No capacity for strategic I08 / AS-I16 avoiding unnecessary use of permitted gauge clearance for the also deliver capacity for other routes. freight movements line capacity to re-position route. freight trains Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Anglo-Scottish Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

In-scope catchment is relatively small Rejected - lack of Interworking new stopping service with New local rail service from and is unlikely to justify a dedicated demand for a existing high speed intercity services AS-I01 AS-P1 Edinburgh to Berwick-upon- Yes new service. Some additional Low No dedicated service and and freight traffic could create line Tweed and Newcastle infrastructure may also be required to potential infrastructure capacity problems. maintain timetable resiliency. requirements.

In-scope catchment is relatively small Rejected - lack of Interworking new stopping service with New stations to support a and is unlikely to justify a dedicated demand for a existing high speed intercity services Generic AS-P1 local rail service at East Linton Yes new service. Some additional Low No dedicated service and and freight traffic could create line and Reston infrastructure may also be required to potential infrastructure capacity problems. maintain timetable resiliency. requirements.

An additional stop would incur a Rejected - better bus Expand existing car parking provision, New park & ride facility at journey time penalty for through connectivity would Generic AS-P1 Yes and lengthen the platforms to Low No Musselburgh passengers, so it is unlikely to enhance access to accommodate longer trains generate a positive business case. Waverley

Hourly service to Dunbar Modification to existing services to Shortlisted - better rail delivered by adding additional deliver revised frequency to Dunbar. Additional platform will resolve some connections east of stops on existing trains, This could require the construction of capacity constraints; no extra line AS-I02 AS-P1 Yes Low No Edinburgh by particularly on the VXC an additional platform to facilitate capacity needed to accommodate new establishing a principal services since passengers are stopping northbound traffic without services. rail hub. generally less time sensitive crossing the track.

Shortlisted - will Revise the existing track / Existing services at Dunbar use a Intervention could generate a facilitate better rail platform layout at Dunbar to single platform. Reinstate the Down reasonable business case if introduced connections east of Generic AS-P1 Yes Low Yes accommodate higher train platform to reduce the number of trains as part of proposals to enhance train Edinburgh by frequencies crossing the Up line frequencies calling at Dunbar establishing a principal rail hub. Introduce an innovative pricing strategy for local taxis to May represent a more affordable Shortlisted - better Generic AS-P1 improve rail access to Dunbar Yes Limited constraints. Low No solution than a dedicated rail service. local rail connectivity. for passengers without access to a car

Identify scope for an improved Rejected - insufficient bus service connecting local Population densities may not be population catchment No major operational reasons Generic AS-P1 communities with Dunbar to Yes sufficient to attract enough passengers Low No to generate enough preventing implementation improve access to the rail to operate a viable bus service demand to support bus network feeders Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Anglo-Scottish Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Would create regular train frequencies Better bus interchange / car and better journey opportunities Shortlisted - improved parking with additional trains Development of Lockerbie as an between Dumfries, Lockerbie and connectivity for AS-I03 AS-P2 stopping at Lockerbie to Yes interchange for Dumfries and Low No Glasgow and Edinburgh, supporting Lockerbie and create a major intercity public Galloway. wider social inclusion and economic Dumfries & Galloway for Dumfries regeneration objectives.

Revised current track layouts Intervention could generate a at Carstairs to increase line Shortlisted - improved Modify track layout to increase line reasonable business case if Generic AS-P2 speed and reduce journey Yes Low No journey times for speeds operational flexibility is improved, and times between Carlisle and through passengers journey times are reduced Edinburgh

New park & ride station at Symington to encourage Rejected - existing New station would make WIMP more longer distance commuting Construction of a new station; and facility at Carstairs accessible to local communities as Generic AS-P2 from the A702 corridor, Yes potential impact on line capacity from Low No represents a cheaper well as encouraging strategic park and particularly to Edinburgh, and additional dwell time. solution if existing ride to Edinburgh from M74 and A702 strategic park & ride trips from facilities are upgraded. the M74

Rejected - existing New station at Beattock Construction of a new station; and Scheme is unlikely to generate a facility at Carstairs Generic AS-P2 served by existing WCML Yes potential impact on line capacity from robust business case given since local Low No represents a cheaper trains additional dwell time. population catchment is small. solution if existing facilities are upgraded.

Improved services from Carstairs Improved station facilities at could attract passengers from South Rejected - journey Carstairs, with Carlisle to Add an extra station dwell time in the Generic AS-P2 Yes Lanarkshire, although the dis-benefits Low No time dis-benefits for Edinburgh trains calling timetable for through passengers requires through passengers additionally at Carstairs careful consideration

New dedicated service is unlikely to New local service from Interworking a local service with generate a robust business case, Rejected - lack of Carlisle to Glasgow via WCML existing 125 mph passenger trains and AS-I04 AS-P2 Yes given the procurement of dedicated Low No existing capacity to including new stations at freight traffic is likely to cause line rolling stock and limited population support new service. Beattock and Symington capacity problems. catchments.

Improved local bus services to Business case likely to be relatively Rejected - lack of in- Generic AS-P2 Carstairs to enhance access No No particular operational constraints weak given the dispersed land use Low No scope demand to to the rail network patterns support a bus feeder Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Anglo-Scottish Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs Better yield management for Intervention should be achievable Scheme would alleviate overcrowding longer distance trains to avoid Shortlisted - improved AS-I05 AS-P3 Yes since GNER trains are already pathed without incurring costs of procuring Negligible Yes over-crowding on VXC trains service quality. ahead of VXC trains. extra rolling stock. via the ECML Funding package agreed for the AS-I06 AS-P4 WCML Upgrade Yes Deliver scheme N/A Yes Committed upgrade

Scheme would enable long distance Revise calling pattern on Potential for VXC to call at smaller ECML journeys to compete more ECML to enable more trains to Shortlisted - improved AS-I07 AS-P4 Yes centres missed by GNER, since VXC effectively with air services, particularly Negligible Yes reach London in 4.5 hours or service quality. travel market is less time sensitive. if delivered in conjunction with other less service quality improvements.

Rolling stock with laptop power points Continued refurbishment of GNER committed to refitting their and wireless internet access are electric train fleet to improve electric 225 fleet as "Mallards" at a important factors to encourage Included in Shortlisted - improved Generic AS-P4 the on-board environment, Yes cost of £25m as part of their franchise business travellers to choose rail. the GNER Yes service quality. particularly for business commitment. Fleet refurbishment is These are committed improvements to franchise passengers using the WCML understood to be almost complete. be delivered as part of the GNER franchise.

Restructure timetable to Capacity bottlenecks on Dumfries line Timetable restructuring would be more Shortlisted - improve interchange at (Annan - Gretna single track) restricts AS-I08 AS-P5 Yes cost-effective than infrastructure Low No improving service Carlisle with trains to the GSW the introduction of a regular 2-hourly upgrade. reliability. line service between Carlisle and Glasgow.

Deliver additional track capacity between Gretna and Shortlisted - creates Eastriggs, together with Intervention should generate an additional capacity to Introduce additional track capacity to AS-I09 AS-P5 additional intermediate block Yes attractive business case, given the Low Yes support freight growth, support wider freight growth signalling capacity on the aspirations for freight growth and deliver wider GSW line to support planned capacity benefits freight growth

Rejected - improved interchange at Introduce additional direct Kilmarnock, and a trains to Prestwick from GSW Capacity constraints affect timetabling Likely requirement to upgrade GSW AS-I10/ RRS-I05 AS-P5 Yes Low No regular hourly service line to support forecast airport on GSW line. route to support extra trains. to Girvan offers a passenger growth better value for money solution Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Anglo-Scottish Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Capacity bottlenecks on Dumfries line Rejected - insufficient Increase frequencies between and restricted timetable flexibility, demand outside the Carlisle and Dumfries to May generate social and economic particularly between Gretna - Annan. peak period, and hourly by in-filling existing benefits, however scheme may not AS-I11 AS-P5 Yes Hourly service to Glasgow may affect Low No additional passenger timetable and deliver better attract sufficient demand to justify freight demand, particularly on services will conflict connectivity to interchange extra services. Kilmarnock - Barrhead single track with aspirations to stations section. increase freight.

Increase frequencies between Carlisle and Glasgow to two- Regular two-hourly service could Shortlisted - hourly by in-filling existing Regular two-hourly passenger service generate additional demand, intervention will deliver AS-I12 AS-P5 Yes Low No timetable and deliver better will release capacity for freight trains intervention will also create extra benefits for both connectivity to interchange freight capacity passenger and freight stations

Additional freight capacity from Hunterston including the construction of passing loops Could demonstrate a robust business Would involve electrification from AS-I13 / GSW- or electrification of the freight- case and improve timetable flexibility, Shortlisted - improved AS-P6 Yes Hunterston junction to Castlehill Low No I07 only branch line to allow particularly if Hunterston is developed freight flexibility junction additional train movements into a deep sea container port. and improved timetable flexibility

Shortlisted - Revise track layout at Intervention needs to be delivered as intervention needs to AS-I14 AS-P6 Dumfries to enhance flexibility Yes Modify existing track layout part of a wider freight enhancement Low No be delivered as part of for freight traffic strategy for the GSW route wider route strategy

Construction of a rounding This scheme could demonstrate a loop facility at Mauchline to positive business case, since other AS-I15 / GSW- improve flexibility of freight Shortlisted - improved AS-P6 Yes Construction of a rounding loop infrastructure solutions to increase Low No I08 / RRS-I05 trains, avoiding unnecessary freight flexibility capacity may be delayed or not use of line capacity to re- required. position freight trains Scheme Shortlisting Scotland Planning Assessment Anglo-Scottish Routes

Estimated Problem to be Contributes to Delivery Qualitative Assessment of Business Unique Reference Intervention Description Deliverability Capital Recommendation resolved of SPA Objectives? Case Solution? Costs

Regular two hourly passenger service Rejected - intervention Intervention would create additional could allow freight timings to be would conflict with the Replace passenger rail capacity for freight, although a restructured. Bus replacement service social inclusion services and operate the replacement bus service would be would lead to a significantly slower AS-I16 / RRS-I04 AS-P6 Yes Low Yes objective, and re- GSW route as a dedicated required to serve the A76 / A75 journey time. Replacement of the timetabling solution freight corridor corridor between Kilmarnock and passenger service is unlikely to be would deliver Carlisle necessary unless significant freight additional capacity growth is achieved.

Improve freight access to Additional loops likely to have a robust Mossend by creating Potential disruption / blockades whilst business case, since the extra Shortlisted - wider AS-I17 AS-P7 additional freight loops to Yes the new reception sidings are capacity could support the expansion Low Yes operational benefits support forecast growth in connected to the main network of the inter-modal freight market in inter-modal traffic Scotland

Appendix B Appraisal Summary Tables

Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Pricing to Encourage Travel During Shoulder Peak and Train Reference: GEN-P01 Lengthening to Support Growth

Introduce pricing mechanisms to incentivise passengers to travel in the shoulder peak periods (between 0700-0800 and 0900-1000) to Description support future commuting growth (EG-I01, ED-I02). This could be combined with increased train lengths in the shoulder peak periods to operate a higher proportion of trains at the maximum 6-car length (GEN-I01, GEN-I02, GEN-I03)

Promoter SE, First ScotRail would implement this scheme

Source Arup proposal.

Small capital investment required. Major stations are already gated (Edinburgh Waverley, Haymarket, Glasgow Central, Capital Costs Glasgow Queen Street), although modifications to existing ticket gates may be required. Procurement of additional rolling stock will similarly be required.

Operating Costs Additional rolling stock would be required to lengthen trains, with increased operating costs associated with train lengthening.

Indicative This intervention could delay the requirement for major infrastructure investment. Revenue could drop when a small proportion Financial of passengers retime their journeys, although this decrease may be partially offset by lower fares in the shoulder peak Revenue Impact: attracting a small number of additional passengers, and also delay the need to invest in further rolling stock, ie beyond the current 6-car length.

Third Party Funding None

Potentially a small increase, to fund the extra rolling stock lease / operating costs. Costs would be significantly less if Cost to Public Sector additional network capacity was required.

Background Information: The introduction of pricing mechanisms to incentivise passengers to travel in the shoulder peak, coupled with solutions to lengthen trains to the maximum permitted length could delay the timescale for major new investment, for example, train lengthening beyond 6- cars, or signalling enhancements, additional station capacity. Pricing mechanisms could spread demand more evenly, given the high concentration of peak arrivals in Edinburgh and Glasgow. This model has been successfully applied by the train operator c2c for the Scheme Context: London Tilbury and Southend route through the implementation of 'flexitime season' tickets that offer discounts for passengers arriving before a specific time. This technique has yet to be applied outside London, although it formed one of the recommendations from the West Midlands Route Utilisation Strategy. Neith Glasgow Central High Level or Low Level stations are currently gates, although manual barriers are used for peak services. We are aware that First ScotRail are developing proposals to gate all or parts of these (and other) stations

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Supports planned growth, offers improved Glasgow-Edinburgh interaction and connectivity and facilitates plan-led growth in Edinburgh Objectives: and supports the shift towards sustainable transport.

Current capacity constraints on the network cause overcrowding particularly during the peak hours. Financial incentives to encourage Rationale for Short-listing: passengers to travel during the shoulder peak periods would optimise existing capacity and delay the timescale for significant investment in new infrastructure or rolling stock

Implementability Appraisal:

No significant barriers to implementation. Existing ticket gates at major stations would need to be modified to differentiate between Technical: tickets valid for the shoulder peak and other parts of the peak period.

Will require effective revenue protection measures to ensure compliance. Peak rolling stock avaliability would need to be increased to Operational: cover 3 hour morning peak rather than just the present peak hour period, and therefore requires a detailed examination of the existing train plan. Additional depot capacity may be required to maintain the extra units.

Intervention will have financial implications for First ScotRail with the small transfer of passengers purchasing cheaper shoulder peak Financial: tickets. Additional subsidy would be required to offset the reduction in farebox revenue, but this could still offer Value for Money, if the timescale for major infrastructure schemes to boost capacity was delayed

Intervention offers commuters the opportunity to retime their journey to work, and reduce commuting costs. Strengthened rolling stock Public: formations will also provide an overall increase in seats during the 3-hour peak period.

Government's Objectives for Transport Neutral impact. Since the intervention is only likely to generate a small number of new rail trips, so the environmental benefits would be Environment: 0 very small.

Neutral impact. Since the intervention is unlikely to attract new journeys to rail from car that could reduce the number of accidents that Safety: 0 occur.

Slight positive impact. Intervention could reduce overcrowding levels during the peak hour (0800-0900) on commuter services into Economy: + Glasgow and Edinburgh. This intervention also increases train capacities for passengers wishing to travel during the shoulder peak periods.

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Intervention could make rail travel more affordable for commuters on lower incomes by meeting the social + Inclusion: inclusion objective.

Integration: 0 Neutral impact. Scheme would have a negligible impact on integration with other modes. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Improve Inter Urban Rolling Stock Quality Reference: GEN-P02

Improve travelling environment in standard class on cross border and inter-urban services aimed at attracting more business Description passengers. If the service quality was improved, the rail journey time could be used more productively, encouraging modal transfer from other modes, including car and air. (GEN-I04)

Promoter SE, with First ScotRail, GNER, Virgin Rail implementing

Source Arup proposal

Rolling stock refurbishment could be partially funded by increased farebox revenue from attracting additional passengers, Capital Costs particularly business users that may be willing to pay higher fares. Enhancements may need to be financially supported by the SE.

Operating Costs Operating costs should not increase.

Indicative Revenue will increase as improved rail service quality will attract more passengers. The Passenger Demand Forecasting Financial Revenue Handbook offers guidance on the likely revenue impact, although train operators should undertake specific market research to Impact: assess the potential benefits, and benchmark the results against other rolling stock improvements.

The decision to enhance the travelling environment is a commercial decision for individual train operators in Scotland. GNER Third Party Funding have almost completed a programme of refurbishment for their fleet of electric 225 trains with WiFi internet technology installed in some trains, whilst the Virgin Pendolino fleet offers a good travelling environment.

Cost to Public Sector None

Background Information:

An enhanced travelling environment for Anglo-Scottish services and inter-urban routes in Scotland, including greater availability of WiFi internet technology and lap-top points in standard class will allow rail to compete with alternative modes more effectively, even if rail Scheme Context: offers a slightly slower journey time. The improved facilities are aimed at allowing business passengers to use the travelling time more productively.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Strengthen cross-border links, provide competitive links between the Central Belt and the other Scottish cities. Objectives:

Rationale for Short-listing: Intervention would enhance service quality to attract new passenger markets, particularly from the business community.

Implementability Appraisal: Technical: No significant barriers to implementation.

Operational: Rolling stock availability may cause a problem during the upgrade

Decision to improve the on-board travelling environment is a commercial decision to be taken by individual train operators, if there is Financial: potential to attract new passengers, particularly business users. However the SE may choose to partially fund the improvements, given the importance of encouraging mode shift to rail

Public reaction is likely to be favourable, particularly business passengers. Intervention may cause a slight increase in peak period Public: crowding on certain services if the number of seating layout is re-configured to include more tables

Government's Objectives for Transport Slight positive impact. Enhanced quality of the rail service could remove some car trips from the highway network delivering Environment: + environmental benefits.

Slight positive impact. Enhanced quality of the rail service could remove some car trips from the highway network reducing the number Safety: + of accidents

Positive impact. An improved working environment on rail services would allow business travellers to make better use of travel time, Economy: ++ compared with air or car.

Access / Social 0 Neutral impact Inclusion:

Integration: 0 Neutral impact Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: New Stations Policy Reference: GEN-P03

Description Produce a framework to guide stakeholders on key considerations and the rationale for delivering new stations (GEN-I05).

Promoter SE to guide stakeholders in Scotland

Source Arup proposal

Capital Costs N/A - dependent on the specific scheme

N/A - dependent on the specific scheme. Due to the number of new stations opened over the last 20 years, there are now very Operating Costs few station openings that can be accommodated without breaching minimum turn-around times.

The policy should emphasise the importance of the scheme being generative in terms of demand and revenue, ie it should generate more new trips than are lost through additional journey time. It is important to identify new sources of potential Indicative demand, for example, significant housing development adjacent to the proposed station, or the ability to serve a significant Financial Revenue park & ride market if good connections exist to the strategic highway network. Some of the proposed new stations proposed by Impact: stakeholders are located adjacent to major housing developments, or have scope to alleviate car parking / access constraints at adjacent stations, so should generate a positive business case.

None confirmed, although there may be potential to incorporate proposals as part of the Local Transport Strategy submission Third Party Funding prepared by individual Councils.

Cost to Public Sector Not known

Background Information: The aspiration to construct a new station arises for several reasons, either the opportunity to serve a major new housing or commercial developments, strategic park & ride opportunities, or the lack of suitable parking / other access modes to existing stations. It is important Scheme Context: for stakeholders to understand the issues that need to be addressed in terms of access, supporting plan-led growth, the net demand generation and the operational implications.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Intervention offers a shift towards more sustainable modes of transport, foster social inclusion by offering a viable and affordable Objectives: alternative to the private car

New stations can offer opportunities to develop new rail markets, and allow existing markets to expand by creating new opportunities for Rationale for Short-listing: park & ride. However, stations must be considered in a strategic context and take account of potential operational considerations.

Implementability Appraisal:

Technical: Construction of individual stations is likely to require short-term possessions to complete.

The potential impact affecting train capacity (is there sufficient spare on-train capacity to attract new passengers to the route?) and network capacity (what is the mix of fast / stopping passenger services, plus freight using the route, and what are the implications if an Operational: additional stop is made) requires careful consideration. Intervention should be considered in a strategic context to avoid the incremental revisions to the network that conflict with wider capacity issues.

Detailed study required to assess the potential demand generated by the new station. This needs to take account of the potential Financial: revenue abstraction from other stations, additional journey time for existing passengers, the opportunity for 'walk-in' demand (within 2km), or the potential for strategic park & ride.

Public reaction is normally supportive towards new stations. However, local objections may be raised regarding possible visual intrusion, Public: or traffic impact affecting people living close to the station.

Government's Objectives for Transport Better access to the rail network could attract existing car drivers, encouraging modal transfer and reduce the journey length to access to Environment: the rail network. The reduction in car journeys would deliver environmental benefits, although the magnitude of these benefits will be determined by the attractiveness of the rail service. Scale of the benefits is dependent on the likely station usage

Better access to the rail network could attract existing car drivers, encouraging modal transfer and reduce the journey length to access to Safety: the rail network. The reduction in car journeys could deliver accident savings, although the magnitude of these benefits will be determined by the attractiveness of the rail service. Scale of the benefits is dependent on the likely station usage

Better access to the rail network will reduce overall journey times, the impact on punctuality and reliability, effect on crowding, and Economy: availability of passenger facilities. Scale of the benefits is dependent on the likely station usage

Access / Social New rail station will deliver a step-change improving local access. New station could also encourage social inclusion by improving Inclusion: access to the network for households without a car. Scale of the benefits will be dependent on the level of use

Schemes could potentially provide a step-change in level of public transport integration by creating scope for additional bus-rail Integration: interchange, particularly at stations adjacent to major housing or office developments. Scale of impact will be dependent on the level of use Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Improve Access and Interchange to the Railway Reference: GEN-P04

Deliver enhancements to stations to provide accessible interchange to bus and other modes (GEN-I07, GEN-I08) . Increase car parking Description capacity (GEN-I06).

Promoter SE, First ScotRail, individual County Councils

Source Stakeholder aspirations

Improved car parking facilities likely to have low capital cost unless decking is required. Cost per space is typically about Capital Costs £1,000, although costs may rise if construction is complex. Costs of developing public transport interchanges will be dependent on the scope of works, but Local Transport Strategy funding could be available.

Car parking facilities may be self funding, although parking at some stations is free. Revisions to existing bus schedules or Operating Costs newly introduced routes will incur increased operating costs, but the operator may be willing to operate these services commercially, given the potential revenue generation. Indicative Financial Impact: Revenue from parking charges should offset the construction and operating costs at some stations. Parking at most of the smaller stations is currently free. Typical revenue per space is about £500 per space per annum, and therefore revenue will Revenue have covered the capital costs after a couple of years. Farebox revenue will also increase by attracting additional passengers to the rail network.

Parking schemes likely to be self-funding. Interchange improvements could be funded through the Local Transport Third Party Funding Submission prepared by Councils.

Cost to Public Sector No additional costs for car parking. Interchanges may require third party funding.

Background Information:

First ScotRail data indicates that the majority of station car parks are operating at, or close to capacity (particularly in the central belt). Scheme Context: This will restrict the opportunities for further growth in commuting travel, or the potential to develop off peak rail demand to fill spare capacity during the daytime. Lack of car parking is seen as a key constraint by the business community

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Improved integration between transport services and modes, shift to more sustainable modes of transport Objectives:

Additional car parking at new stations / enhanced modal interchange will improve access to the rail network. Improved access facilities Rationale for Short-listing: will support forecast peak growth to the major economic centres in Scotland, but also facilitate off-peak growth, since potential passengers may be discouraged from using rail by the lack of available car parking.

Implementability Appraisal: Would require individual studies assessing the feasibility of expanding parking provision at stations and improved bus-rail interchange Technical: facilities.

Proposals will require negotiation with local bus operators to re-route some services. Proposals may also require revisions to the local Operational: highway network to improve connectivity, especially for bus access.

Additional car parking is likely to be self-funding unless construction is very complex. Business case for interchange improvements will Financial: be funded on the wider environmental and access benefits, and could be included in the Local Transport Strategies prepared by Councils.

Proposals to improve station access are unlikely to encounter any significant public opposition, although residents living close to the Public: station may be affected by possible visual intrusion, from the additional trips to / from the station.

Government's Objectives for Transport Slight positive impact. Increased parking availability at the principal stations could remove some car trips from the highway, particularly Environment: + during the inter-peak. Convenient bus access to stations could encourage a small number of commuters to switch from car - both outcomes will deliver environmental benefits.

Slight positive impact. Increased parking availability at the principal stations could remove some car trips from the highway during the Safety: + inter-peak. Convenient bus access to stations could encourage a small number of commuters to switch from car, both interventions will reduce total car kilometres on the network, and hence cut the number of accidents.

Positive impact. Improved access to the station would attract new rail passengers, particularly during the off-peak since the additional Economy: ++ spare capacity means new passengers can be accommodated at marginal cost.

Access / Social Positive impact. Better public transport links to the station would support social inclusion objective and improve access to jobs for those ++ Inclusion: without access to a car.

Positive impact. Schemes could potentially provide a step-change in level of public transport integration, and encourage greater use of Integration: ++ sustainable modes. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Reliability improvements, particularly for the Glasgow Reference: GEN-P05 Suburban network

Implement relatively small scale infrastructure schemes to 'unlock' capacity bottlenecks across Scotland, but particularly on the Glasgow Description suburban network that could deliver a step-change in performance. These interventions could include junction improvements (doubling single-lead junctions), signalling improvements (reducing headways) or creating additional network capacity. (GEN-I09)

Promoter WESTRANS, Network Rail, First ScotRail

Source Stakeholder aspirations

Capital costs will vary depending on the complexity of solution. Some outline costs for individual schemes were included in the Central Scotland Capacity Study on behalf of Network Rail in 2001. However, these costs need to be reviewed, and the Capital Costs individual interventions prioritised, given the proposed changes to the timetables (both as part of the committed enhancements, and the emerging recommendations from the SPA). Capacity bottleneck improvements could be carried out at modest cost as part of the Network Rail Route Utilisation Strategy.

Indicative Operating Costs Not calculated yet, but likely to be negligible Financial Impact: Revenue benefits associated with the improved journey time reliability have not been calculated. It is unlikely these Revenue interventions will facilitate improved train frequencies, instead service reliability will improve.

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Not known

Background Information: The suburban network in Glasgow is complex, with high frequency services operating on most routes. The majority of key junctions are not grade separated, and there are also several sections on the outer part of the network that are only single track. Furthermore, the signalling capability for several sections is operating close to capacity. If service perturbation does occur, delays can be 'exported' Scheme Context: across the network, given the complex interface between different service groups. Potential interventions include additional track capacity for example between Milngavie & Westerton, Partick & Hyndland and Barrhead to Kilmarnock, increased signalling capability particularly via Glasgow Central and Glasgow Queen Street Low Level stations and improvements at Bellgrove, Newton, Busby, Westerton and Craigendoran Junctions. Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration, particularly in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, facilitate access to airports, especially to Objectives: Glasgow Airport.

Rationale for Short-listing: Intervention comprises relatively low cost initiatives that could deliver a step-change in network performance.

Implementability Appraisal: Many of these small scale schemes have previously been appraised, but there is a requirement to review the recommendations, and Technical: update the potential benefits and costsof schemes to reflect the emerging recommendations from the SPA. Additional track capacity will require possessions to deliver. The signalling solutions may be difficult to deliver, given the current shortage of signalling engineers

Operational: Interventions will be delivered as part of weekend possessions, so replacement bus services will be required

Detailed simulation modelling required to quantify the relative benefits of each intervention, and the possible synergies between Financial: schemes. The detailed modelling will calculate the potential reduction in delays that could occur, and the resulting financial benefit.

Public reaction should be supportive towards interventions that improve performance, particularly as the proposals are relatively low Public: cost.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Environment: 0 Neutral impact. Enhanced performance is unlikely to deliver significant environmental benefits

Safety: 0 Neutral impact. Enhanced performance is unlikely to deliver a significant reduction in accidents

Positive impact. Intervention should reduce the number of delay minutes occurring on the network, by increasing capacity at recognised Economy: ++ capacity pinch-points Access / Social 0 Neutral impact Inclusion:

Integration: 0 Neutral impact Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Branding of Selected Suburban Services Reference: GEN-P06

To develop and apply a consistent standard for passenger information, station security and facilities on selected urban routes in Description Glasgow and Edinburgh. A minimum service frequency may also be stipulated on some routes. (GEN-I10)

Promoter SE / SESTRAN / WESTRANS - First ScotRail would deliver intervention

Source Arup proposal

Costs to upgrade suburban stations. If interchange is being improved with other modes, Local Transport Strategy funding may Capital Costs be available.

Slight increase in cost to maintain the improved facilities, monitor security equipment and keeping passenger information up to Operating Costs date. Indicative Financial Revenue Initiatives should increase revenue, particularly evenings and weekends, given the security improvements. Impact:

Third Party Funding Local Transport Strategy monies could be available to fund these improvements

Cost to Public Sector Interventions would be funded by alternative funding initiatives.

Background Information: The existing ScotRail franchise includes the SQUIRE regime that imposes a minimum standard of facilities and station cleanliness. Fines are imposed if the pre-determined standards are not achieved. A pilot study has been inroduced in South London to deliver a 'metro' concept on four routes, offering a minimum standard of facilities, including security, proximity to a bus interchange, lighting, Scheme Context: quality of the waiting areas, and the availability of information to assist the onward journey. The initial signs emerging from this pilot are positive, and this concept could be applied to a number of routes, particularly in Glasgow, but also to a lesser extent in Greater Edinburgh.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Improve integration between transport services and modes, encourage a shift towards more sustainable transport Objectives:

Implementation of the 'Scottish Suburban Station Standards' branding would provide a step change in service quality for passengers, and progress towards a seamless public transport network. Improved integration with other modes through better information and Rationale for Short-listing: through ticketing would provide better bus-rail connectivity. By establishing minimum standards for security and passenger waiting facilities will deliver a step change in quality.

Implementability Appraisal: Technical: No significant barriers to investment.

Operational: Could require the support of local bus operators to modify existing routes to serve the stations more effectively.

Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook describes the potential revenue improvements from station enhancements. The station Financial: enhancements will generate additional revenue, whilst the better connectivity between bus and rail will help develop a seamless interchange between modes.

Public: Security improvements likely to be welcomed by existing passengers, and could attract new passengers at evenings / weekends.

Government's Objectives for Transport Slight positive impact. Enhanced station facilities and better connectivity with other modes could remove a small number of car trips from Environment: + the highway network delivering environmental benefits.

Slight positive impact. Intervention is unlikely to significantly reduce the number of accidents, but it would enhance personal safety at Safety: + stations

Positive impact. Intervention to improve station facilities and security could increase travel during off-peak periods, ticketing and Economy: ++ passenger information facilities would also improve.

Access / Social Positive impact. Intervention should improve social inclusion as better linkages to the rail network should encourage new travel markets, ++ Inclusion: particularly those households without access to a car.

Integration: ++ Positive impact. Intervention will develop a step change in bus-rail integration at stations. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Improve station facilities at key interchanges Reference: GEN-P07

Improve waiting environment at selected stations in Scotland. Deliver enhancements to these stations to provide accessible interchange Description between rail services. Extent of station improvements will depend on location, typical wait times, and the number of passengers using the interchange (GEN-I11).

Promoter First ScotRail, various Councils

Source As above.

Capital Costs Improvement costs at strategic interchanges will vary depending on the level of existing facilities.

Change in operating costs should be negligible once the additional capital investment has been procured. Any change in Operating Costs operating costs would be absorbed by the commercial operator if the incremental revenue was sufficient to offset the extra costs

Indicative Station improvements could generate a small amount of additional revenue - guidance in the Passenger Demand Forecasting Financial Handbook offers advice on the likely change in revenue and patronage that could be achieved if station improvements are Revenue Impact: delivered. The patronage / revenue impact will depend on the scale of improvements, and the number of passengers forecast to use the interchange

Station improvements could be funded through Local Transport Fund submissions, to encourage greater use of the rail Third Party Funding network, and to ensure interchange is not perceived as a deterent to using the network.. There may be some scope for funding from commercial developers at larger stations

Cost to Public Sector No additional costs for car parking, interchanges may require 3rd party funding.

Background Information:

Arup has identified a series of possible service enhancements that could be delivered benefiting both suburban and inter-urban routes. As part of these service changes, a number of strategic interchange stations will be created, including Stirling, Perth, Dundee, Inverness, Scheme Context: Kilmarnock, Dalmuir, Aberdeen and Bellgrove. To ensure interchange is not perceived as a deterent to passengers, facilities at these stations should be improved. The station improvements will complement a wider timetabling review to improve connectivity between services at these stations. Lack of parking is perceived as a key constraint on the the use of rail by the business community.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Improve integration between transport services and modes, encourage a shift towards more sustainable transport Objectives:

Connectivity at key interchange stations is an important role when reviewing service patterns. It is not practical to operate direct trains Rationale for Short-listing: between all routes, so establishing principal hubs that offer convenient interchange between services will meet this objective.

Implementability Appraisal: Technical: Implementation of the improved station facilities

A review of existing timetabling connections at the principal stations is required, to identify scope for reducing interchange penalties. This Operational: timetabling assessment will complement the enhanced station facilities.

Business case for interchange improvements will be funded on the wider environmental and access benefits, and requests for funding Financial: will be included in the Local Transport Strategies prepared by Councils.

Proposals to improve station facilities should receive public support, given the potential to deliver wider environmental and integration Public: benefits.

Government's Objectives for Transport Slight positive impact. Improved interchange facilities could attract a small number of car drivers to rail, if the overall journey time is Environment: + improved. Intervention should deliver small environmental benefits.

Neutral impact. Improved interchange facilities could attract a small number of car drivers to rail, if the overall journey time is improved, Safety: 0 but the overall impact on accidents is likely to be negligible.

Slight positive impact. Improved interchange could attract additional passengers to the network, if the overall end-to-end journey times Economy: + are reduced, and waiting facilities enhanced.

Access / Social 0 Neutral impact Inclusion:

Positive impact. Interventions could potentially reduce the perceived disbenefit of interchange, and could enhance rail-rail integration Integration: ++ with reduced connection times, and better waiting facilities at key stations. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Marketing of Glasgow Edinburgh Services Reference: EG-P01

This is a concept to market all Glasgow - Edinburgh services as one product (EG-I01). Frequency will increase to 11tph with the proposals to improve the Shotts (EG-I06) and Carstairs routes (EG-I09), and the committed Airdrie - Bathgate re-opening. The Description intervention could include inter-available ticketing. The principal aim of this intervention is to encourage local passengers from Ayrshire and West Lothian to use their local station on the different Glasgow - Edinburgh routes, rather than park & ride at intermediate stations.

Promoter SE, WESTRANS, SESTRAN. First ScotRail, and to a lesser extent GNER and Virgin CrossCountry would implement

Source Arup proposal

Capital Costs None

Advertising costs to market the revised services. This could be achieved by a mixture of on-train, internet and newspaper Operating Costs marketing initiatives. Indicative Financial Revenue Costs of advertising likely to be offset by the additional revenue generated from new rail passengers. Impact:

Third Party Funding None confirmed, Train Operators would need to take a commercial decision to fund any marketing campaign.

Cost to Public Sector Nil

Background Information:

At present, the main route between Edinburgh and Glasgow is via Falkirk High with 4tph offering a journey time of about 50 minutes. Trains arrive / depart at Glasgow Queen Street, with intermediate stops at Croy, Falkirk High, Polmont and Linlithgow. Whilst the route via Carstairs departing from Glasgow Central to Edinburgh offers a journey time of about an hour, trains only depart every two hours, Scheme Context: Furthermore, the Shotts route is not attractive in terms of journey time or frequency. The completion of the Airdrie - Bathgate scheme, and the proposed improvements to the routes (described in other Appraisal Summary Tables) via Shotts (2tph, with a journey time of about 1 hour) and Carstairs (1tph, with a journey time of about 1 hour) would allow the alternative routes between Edinburgh and Glasgow to be marketed, offering a choice for intermediate markets, and the choice of a terminus in central Glasgow.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Marketing strategy to support improved Glasgow-Edinburgh interaction and connectivity and facilitates plan-led growth in Edinburgh and Objectives: Lothians

Arup is proposing a step-change in service quality for the Shotts and Carstairs routes between Edinburgh and Glasgow to complement Rationale for Short-listing: the existing service via Falkirk High, and the committed improvement between Airdrie and Bathgate. It is therefore important to publicise the different journey choice available for passengers.

Implementability Appraisal: No significant barriers to implementation, since the intervention assumes the delivery of the Airdrie - Bathgate scheme, and the delivery Technical: of improvements to the Carstairs and Shotts routes.

This marketing campaign should be supported with product branding and route maps illustrating the different journey choices and a Operational: composite timetable. Although First ScotRail will remain the principal operator for Edinburgh - Glasgow trips, GNER / Virgin CrossCountry services would need to be included to deliver the 11tph.

Financial: Relatively low cost intervention, intended to maximise passenger awareness of the different journey choices available.

Public: Public reaction likely to be favourable, given the greater awareness of the enhanced Edinburgh to Glasgow rail product.

Government's Objectives for Transport Slight positive impact. As greater awareness of the step-change in travel choices between Edinburgh and Glasgow could remove car Environment: + trips from the busy M8 corridor delivering environmental benefits.

Slight positive impact. As greater awareness of the step-change in travel choices between Edinburgh and Glasgow could remove car Safety: + trips from the highway network, reducing the number of accidents on the busy M8 corridor.

Positive impact. A greater awareness of the step-change in travel choices between Edinburgh and Glasgow will demonstrate the Economy: ++ benefits of the improved frequencies, faster journey times, new journey opportunities available by attracting new passengers to the rail network by more effective branding and product awareness.

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Greater public awareness of the journey choices will support the social inclusion objective, by improving journey + Inclusion: opportunities from the intermediate stations.

Positive impact. Improved rail-rail integration, since the enhanced marketing campaign will inform passengers they are able to use Integration: ++ different terminus stations in Glasgow, particularly improving connectivity to Glasgow Central. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table

Intervention Details: Lengthening trains between Edinburgh and Glasgow Reference: EG-P02

Description Run longer trains between Edinburgh and Glasgow to alleviate peak overcrowding. (EG-I02)

Promoter First ScotRail

Source Stakeholder aspiration - SESTRAN, WESTRANS

Likely cost is about £100m (including an allowance of 66% for optimism bias. Intervention includes two additional platforms at Glasgow Queen Street Station, platform lengthening at Croy, Falkirk High, Polmont, and Linlithgow. Phase 2 of improvements Capital Costs at Waverley Station could deliver longer platforms, but funding source has yet to be confirmed. Although Phase 2 would deliver longer paltforms, although it would remove vehicular traffic from the station, and the creation of replacement facilities on East Market Street

Operating Costs £4.7m per annum (including 41% optimism bias), this assumes trains will be lengthened to 8-car during the peak period Indicative Financial Additional revenue generated is small, although load factors are expected to increase by about 10% by 2016, and a further Impact: 10% by 2026. With the possible exception of 1-2 services in the morning peak, recent train lengthening to 6-car means there is Revenue spare capacity to accommodate forecast growth in load factors. However, these load factor forecasts do not take account of the potential passenger abstraction to other stations resulting from the improvements to the Shotts or Carstairs routes.

Third Party Funding Phase 2 of the Waverley scheme could deliver platform lengthening, although no funding source has been identified.

Cost to Public Sector Significant capital costs required.

Background Information:

Majority of peak period trains between Edinburgh and Glasgow are operating as 6-car formations. A small number of the busiest current trains (typically 1-2 services in each direction) have load factors in excess of 100%. Given the continued employment growth forecast, Scheme Context: particularly for Edinburgh, coupled with the likely increase in load factors resulting from the opening of the Edinburgh Airport Rail Link, lengthening trains may be required to create increased capacity without improving train frequencies.

Planning Objectives:

Supports plan-led growth, offers improved Glasgow-Edinburgh interaction and connectivity and facilitates plan-led growth in Edinburgh Links with the Planning and Lothians; supports the shift towards sustainable transport, supports sustainable access to Edinburgh Airport following construction Objectives: of rail link. There are 2000 new homes planned in Falkirk, a further 14,000 in the Falkirk Council area and 3,000 in Edinburgh

Intervention will make effective use of existing line capacity to support plan-led growth in Edinburgh and Glasgow, and provide additional Rationale for Short-listing: capacity to support employment, population and airport related growth in the Central Belt

Implementability Appraisal:

Platform lengthening beyond 6-cars will create significant technical issues, given the constraints at all intermediate stations, including Technical: proximity to bridges, signals and other constraints, including the tunnel at Glasgow Queen Street. Car parking capacity, particularly at intermediate stations would need to be improved. Depot capacity may also need to be increased to maintain the extra units.

Operational: No major revisions would need to be made to the timetable.

Longer trains are unlikely to generate a robust business case since the additional capacity will only be required on a very limited number of peak services. Intervention may not generate significant additional demand as alternative trains are less busy (other services are less Financial: than 70% full) - hence passengers are not being discouraged from the network due to overcrowding. Potential for other interventions to 'manage' crowding levels on the busiest services, including pricing mechanisms and significant service enhancements that would benefit other routes

Public reaction is likely to be neutral, since the intervention will only benefit a small number of commuters on a limited number of peak Public: services.

Government's Objectives for Transport Neutral impact. Overcrowding affecting a limited number of services does not appear to discourage rail passengers from using these Environment: 0 trains. Spare capacity on existing services indicates lengthening is unlikely to attract wholly new passengers; hence environmental benefits are likely to be small.

Neutral impact. Overcrowding affecting a limited number of services does not appear to discourage rail passengers from using these Safety: 0 trains. Spare capacity on existing services indicates lengthening is unlikely to attract wholly new passengers; hence accident savings are likely to be negligible.

Negative impact. Intervention is likely to have a modest impact on load factors by reducing crowding levels. Number of wholly new Economy: -- passengers attracted to rail is likely to be very small. No impact on journey times, reliability, train frequency or rolling stock quality. Additional revenue is unlikely to cover the incremental operating costs.

Access / Social Neutral impact. Train lengthening does not offer improved frequencies or journey time to improve wider connectivity to local transport 0 Inclusion: networks.

Neutral impact. Train lengthening does not offer improved frequencies or journey time to improve wider connectivity to local transport Integration: 0 networks. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Edinburgh - Glasgow 6tph via Croy Reference: EG-P03

Increase the frequency of trains between Edinburgh and Glasgow via Croy to 6tph from 4tph. Both additional trains would call at Falkirk, Description with extra services to Croy and Polmont / Linlithgow (1tph). (EG-I03)

Promoter First ScotRail, Network Rail

Source Stakeholder aspiration (SESTRAN / WESTRANS)

Significant capital costs due to need for additional passing loops at Cowlairs-Greenhill, extra platforms at Glasgow Queen Capital Costs Street, need to use turnback facility at Haymarket and procurement of additional trains. Indicative capital costs including optimism bias are £100m

Operating cost for the additional 2tph between Edinburgh and Glasgow is £6.2m per annum (including an allowance of 41% for Operating Costs optimism bias) Indicative Financial Impact: Introduction of an extra 2tph between Edinburgh and Glasgow would generate an additional £1.12m revenue per annum. Revenue About 50% of this revenue is centre-to-centre demand, although the increase between Edinburgh and Falkirk is also important.

Third Party Funding Additional subsidy would need to be secured to meet the difference between revenue and operating cost

Cost to Public Sector Substantial contribution required from the public sector

Background Information: Service frequency is a key consideration given relatively short journey time between Edinburgh and Glasgow. Service frequency was improved from 2tph to 4tph as part of the previous franchise, but 6tph would offer a turn-up and go service. This intervention assumes Scheme Context: sufficient infrastructure is delivered to allow the additional trains to be superimposed onto the network, and not replace local stopping services to Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Planning Objectives:

Supports plan-led growth, offers improved Glasgow-Edinburgh interaction and connectivity and facilitates plan-led growth in Edinburgh Links with the Planning and Lothians; supports the shift towards sustainable transport. There are 2000 new homes planned in Falkirk, a further 14,000 in the Objectives: Falkirk Council area and 3,000 in Edinburgh that could generate new demand on the Edinburgh to Glasgow route.

Frequency enhancements could generate larger benefits than simply lengthening trains to alleviate crowding on a limited number of trains. However, additional capacity must be created to support this intervention, since it would be unacceptable to reduce train Rationale for Short-listing: frequencies on other parts of the network to create sufficient capacity for the extra services, given the potential loss in revenue and overcrowding that would result on other services.

Implementability Appraisal: Intervention requires the planning and implementation of several major infrastructure schemes to support the planned higher train Technical: frequencies. There is potential for lengthy service disruption (weekend possessions) during implementation that would affect existing revenues

A retimetabling exercise for the Edinburgh to Glasgow routes, plus other services to / from Queen Street and Edinburgh Waverley would Operational: be required to optimise capacity, given the various pinchpoints on the network

Additional revenue generated by the service enhancements does not cover the incremental operating costs, whilst economic benefits Financial: generated are unlikely to offset the significant capital expenditure needed. Transport Model for Scotland indicates the proportion of centre-to-centre trips between Edinburgh and Glasgow that could be "inscope" is relatively small.

Public would benefit from service enhancements to both Glasgow and Edinburgh, whilst intermediate stations would also benefit from Public: the frequency improvements.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Slight positive impact. The intervention would attract some new passengers from the M8 motorway given the frequency improvements, Environment: + thus delivering environmental benefits.

Slight positive impact. The intervention would attract some new passengers from the M8 motorway given the frequency improvements, Safety: + thus reducing the number of accidents

Negative impact. Existing trains between Edinburgh and Glasgow will not be sufficient to attract patronage/revenue to cover operating costs, given the dispersed pattern of highway trips identified in the TMfS. Improved train frequencies will reduce wait times for existing Economy: -- users. Additional frequencies will have a minimal impact on crowding levels. However, the additional revenue will not cover the incremental operating costs.

Access / Social Positive impact. Increased train frequencies to intermediate stations will improve access to the rail network, particularly to households ++ Inclusion: without access to a car.

Integration: 0 Neutral impact. Scheme would have a negligible impact on integration with other modes. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Improvements to the Edinburgh to Glasgow service by Intervention Details: Reference: EG-P04 enhancing the Shotts route Amend the stopping pattern on Edinburgh - Glasgow service via Shotts to deliver faster journey times, and improve train frequencies to the principal stations (Uddingston, Shotts, West Calder, Livingston South and Haymarket). Additional shuttle service could be operated Description between West Calder and Edinburgh hourly and calling at all intermediate stations. Reduced service frequency to Carfin, Cleland, Hartwood, Fauldhouse and Briech stations. (All EG-I06)

West Lothian Council, City of Edinburgh Council, Strathclyde Passenger Transport, WESTRANS, SESTRAN, First ScotRail to Promoter implement

Intervention was previously examined in terms of an additional hourly service from Glasgow Central to Edinburgh calling at the principal Source intermediate stations, delivering a journey time of about an hour.

Relatively low capital costs. Intervention likely to require small scale signalling and capacity improvements. Additional platform capacity at Glasgow Central required - the SPA identifies a number of solutions to generate additional platform capacity, including the electrification of the Whifflet Line to allow trains to be diverted to Glasgow Central Low Level station or the Capital Costs conversion of the Cathcart Circle to light rail. Services may need to use turnback facility at Haymarket if there is insufficient platform capacity at Waverley, and funding for subsequent upgrades is not awarded. The proposed turnback is located on the northside of the station, so alternative services may need to be revised and terminated at Haymarket to free-up capacity for the additional service(s) from the West Calder line.

Indicative £5.2m per annum (including an allowance of 41% for optimism bias) for the additional services between Edinburgh and Financial Operating Costs Glasgow via Shotts, plus a further £1.5m to operate a local shuttle to West Calder serving the intermediate stations west of Impact: Edinburgh

This intervention also requires a detailed understanding of the actual (rather than the station) origin / destination to quantify the Revenue potential benefits.

Third Party Funding No third party funding confirmed.

Cost to Public Sector Relatively small.

Background Information:

Edinburgh to Glasgow is the single largest existing rail flow in Scotland, but interventions to increase train frequencies or operate longer trains via Croy and Falkirk High will require significant capital investment. The existing service on the Shotts route is inadequate, both in Scheme Context: terms of frequency and journey time. Furthermore, there is significant population growth planned for parts of the West Lothian corridor, and it may be necesary to serve the local stations east of West Calder with a dedicated shuttle, given the requirement to achieve a journey time of about 1 hour.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration and better transport integration, facilitating plan-led growth in Edinburgh and the Lothians. Objectives: Will also improve Glasgow - Edinburgh interaction.

Cost effective solution to improve the Edinburgh - Glasgow rail services, but also offers scope to develop new passenger markets, especially serving the principal intermediate stations with a combination of better frequencies and faster journey times to achieve a step- Rationale for Short-listing: change in public transport quality. Service will also significantly improve connectivity to Glasgow Central, particularly offering interchange with services to Glasgow Airport and the Ayrshire coast. Intervention would form part of the wider marketing strategy for Edinburgh and Glasgow routes

Implementability Appraisal: Additional infrastructure required to support an improved service is relatively small. Extra capacity could be created at Glasgow Central High Level station, possibly by diverting Cathcart Circle to a wholly new light rail alignment, or electrifying the Whifflet route with trains Technical: diverted to the Low Level station. Junction improvements and signalling enhancements at Midcalder may also be required, lthough these should not require lengthy possessions. Timetabling study needed for the route. Semi-fast calling pattern will need to be incorporated into the timetable to include extra trains at Glasgow Central, and other known pinchpoints at Newton and Midcalder. Proposed improvements to the Glasgow South West route via Operational: Dumfries will also offer benefits with the removal of coal trains via Shotts due to the current capacity limitiations of the Shotts route. Existing diesel trains from Whifflet would need to be diverted to Glasgow Central Low Level station (achieved by route electrification) to free sufficient platform capacity at the High Level statiom for the enhanced Shotts services. Delivers a step change in public transport quality to support plan-led growth, minimal infrastructure solutions are required and therefore Financial: the intervention delivers a stronger case than other Edinburgh - Glasgow interventions to improve service quality.

Significantly improved rail service for the Shotts line will attract positive public support for the majority of passengers using the busiest Public: stations on the route. However, service frequencies to intermediate stations will be reduced. The magnitude of the dis-benefit could potentially be offset by the operation of bus feeder services providing connectivity to the principal hubs

Government's Objectives for Transport Positive impact. Improved rail service delivering better connectivity with the principal stations and Glasgow / Edinburgh will attract traffic Environment: ++ from the A71 and A721 corridors delivering environmental benefits

Positive impact. Improved rail service delivering better connectivity with the principal stations and Glasgow / Edinburgh will attract traffic Safety: ++ from the A71 and A721 corridors, and reduce the number of accidents

Positive impact. Will improve service quality to existing rail markets through a combination of faster journey times and higher frequencies. Additional frequencies will also support population growth. There is also scope for higher quality rolling stock to be Economy: ++ introduced, by replacing the current Class 156 units with Class 170s, the higher specification units may be required to achieve the proposed journey time

Positive impact. Improved train frequencies and journey time from the principal stations on the Shotts line will improve access to rail, Access / Social ++ particularly for households without access to a car. Bus feeder services providing connectivity from the smaller intermediate stations to Inclusion: the principal hubs will off-set the potential dis-benefits from a reduced frequency

Positive impact. Intermediate stations may benefit from improved bus-rail interchange from the principal stations including Uddingston, Integration: ++ Shotts, West Calder and Livingston South. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Edinburgh - Glasgow via Carstairs Reference: EG-P05

Frequency improvements to supplement existing trains to deliver a new hourly service between Glasgow Central and Edinburgh via Description Carstairs (EG-I09)

Promoter WESTRANS, SESTRAN, delivered by GNER and First ScotRail.

Source Arup internal

Junction and signalling improvements likely to be required at Midcalder, these costs could be supported by service Capital Costs improvements for the Shotts route.

Operating costs for an additional two-hourly service between Glasgow and Edinburgh via Carstairs to supplement existing Operating Costs GNER / VXC frequencies is £3.6m per annum (including an allowance of 41% for optimism bias. Indicative Financial Impact: Further work is required to model potential trips accurately at Carstairs particularly given the potential demand from Lanark Revenue towards Edinburgh. This intervention should be considered as part of a wider Edinburgh to Glasgow marketing strategy.

Third Party Funding None confirmed.

Cost to Public Sector Not known.

Background Information: Frequency on this route is currently two hourly, with GNER trains extended beyond Edinburgh to Glasgow Central. VXC operate a daily service in each direction, and First ScotRail operate 2 trains per day for operational reasons to re-position North Berwick trains. Journey Scheme Context: times are longer than the route via Falkirk, but this service serves the important market between Motherwell and Edinburgh Waverley (about 83,000 journeys per annum).

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Intervention would support other service enhancements between Edinburgh and Glasgow to improve connectivity, and serve the Objectives: intermediate stations

The two-hourly service via Motherwell to Edinburgh is inadequate, and frequency improvements would deliver 3tph between Glasgow Rationale for Short-listing: Central and Edinburgh, and support the wider package of rail improvements between the two cities.

Implementability Appraisal:

Line capacity between Carstairs and Midcalder Junction may need to be improved; particularly by revising the single-lead junction layout Technical: and upgrading signalling. These improvements could be part-funded by improvements to the Shotts route (EG-I07).

Timetable needs to be structured to operate at even intervals to the current trains between Edinburgh and Glasgow via Carstairs to Operational: maximise the potential passenger benefits from the service improvements. Additional platform capacity at Glasgow Central could be delivered by removing the Cathcart Circle services from the terminus (GSE-I12).

There is scope to further develop the rail market between Motherwell and Edinburgh, whilst more effective marketing of the service given Financial: the improve frequency would attract a higher proportion of centre-to-centre trips between Edinburgh and Glasgow. An additional stop at Carstairs could also attract park & ride traffic from Lanark, providing a more affordable solution than a dedicated rail service.

Public: Intervention is likely to receive positive feedback, particularly from passengers benefitting from the service enhancements

Government's Objectives for Transport

Slight positive impact. An hourly service via Motherwell could attract a higher proportion of commuters and leisure passengers currently Environment: + using car to switch to rail, delivering environmental benefits.

Slight positive impact. An hourly service via Motherwell could attract a higher proportion of commuters and leisure passengers currently Safety: + using car to switch to rail, reducing the number of accidents.

Slight positive impact. Improved frequencies via Motherwell and Carstairs will deliver a more adequate rail service, reduce wait times, Economy: + and support growth in the economic centres of Edinburgh and Glasgow

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Improved frequency will strengthen links to employment and leisure opportunities, particularly to Edinburgh, given + Inclusion: the alternative rail services between Motherwell and Glasgow

Integration: 0 Neutral impact. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table

Reduced journey times from Aberdeen to Edinburgh and Glasgow, with a Intervention Details: Reference: IU-P01 new service to Dundee from Edinburgh via Kirkcaldy

Removal of intermediate stops south of Dundee for Edinburgh trains and operating a skip-stop service between Aberdeen and Dundee would reduce end-to-end journey times and improve the competitiveness of rail versus car (IU-I05). Intermediate stations south of Dundee served by a Description new hourly service operating semi-fast via Kirkcaldy to maintain a direct service (IU-I06, ED-I03). Selected improvements at key stations between Dundee and Aberdeen.

Promoter , SESTRAN, WESTRANS, implemented by First ScotRail

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Intervention has been developed to avoid any requirement for infrastructure solutions, for example, additional capacity at Usan. Additional Capital Costs train paths via Fife created by the completion of the Phase 1A works at Edinburgh, and the completion of the Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine scheme

Retimetabling exercise required . Estimated operating cost for an additional hourly service between Dundee and Edinburgh via Operating Costs Cowdenbeath is £5.05m per annum (including an allowance of 41% for optimism bias). Indicative Financial Impact: Intervention should generate additional revenue, given the journey time improvements proposed for the main population centres. Revenue Detailed demand study required to understand passenger numbers using each station to identify the optimium calling pattern

Scottish Executive has agreed to fund the improvements to Waverley Station, and the Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine scheme, creating the Third Party Funding additional capacity on the Fife Circle

Cost to Public Sector TBC

Background Information: There are numerous intermediate stops between Aberdeen and Glasgow / Edinburgh leading to extended journey times that reduces the attractiveness of rail versus car. The removal of some intermediate stops would improve journey times. The additional hourly service from Dundee Scheme Context: to Edinburgh would provide a regular service to the intermediate stations south of Dundee would help to boost capacity on the Fife Circle for commuters

Planning Objectives:

Intervention supports plan-led growth and regeneration, offers improved integration between modes, fosters social inclusion, represents a shift to Links with the Planning sustainable transport, supports the role of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and provides more competitive links between the Central Objectives: Belt and other cities; providing more competitive public transport links between the Central Belt and other Scottish cities. There are 5,700 new homes planned for Aberdeen, 3,000 new homes planned for Perth and 1,200 new homes planned for Dundee

Passenger numbers using some of the existing intermediate stations are relatively low, although demand may be partially suppressed by the poor, Rationale for Short-listing: irregular service frequencies. Intervention makes the best use of the opportunities created by the introduction of extra services to Fife following the completion of the Stirling - Alloa - Kincardine scheme, and Waverley Station Phase 1 improvements.

Implementability Appraisal: No significant technical barriers to implementation, since it is assumed that the intervention can be delivered without requiring additional Technical: infrastructure.

Services to Aberdeen from Glasgow and Edinburgh will need to be re-timetabled, given the revised calling pattern. Semi-fast service via Cowdenbeath will need to be incorporated into the timetable to avoid potential conflicts with the stopping trains. Key considerations are the flighting Operational: of services via the Fife Circle to reflect different operating speeds, and minimise the likelihood of reactionary delays. The Rules of the Plan may need to be revised to accommodate these timetable changes, and ensure a resilient timetable is delivered

Passengers to Edinburgh from Leuchars, Cupar and Springfield may receive a slightly longer journey time given trains operate via Cowdenbeath, Financial: although the additional journeys / revenue from the Aberdeen services to Edinburgh as a result of the journey time improvements will offset any dis- benefits.

Intervention should generally receive strong public support, given the opportunity for improved journey times on the Aberdeen services to Public: Edinburgh and Glasgow. However, there may be small dis-benefits for passengers between Markinch and Leuchars, following the removal of through journey opportunities north of Dundee.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Environment: ++ Positive impact. Faster journey times should encourage motorists to switch from the A90, delivering environmental impacts.

Positive impact. Faster journey times should encourage motorists to switch from the A90, reducing the number of accidents. Intervention will have Safety: ++ no material impact on the levels of personal safety.

Positive impact. Journey time reductions achieved by removing some intermediate stops south of Dundee will generate additional revenue. This improvement will offset the small potential reduction in revenue from Leuchars, Cupar and Springfield given the extended journey times to Economy: ++ Edinburgh. There will also be frequency benefits for the busier local stations in Fife, and these extra trains will deliver crowding relief during the peak

Access / Social Slight positive impact. New service via Kirkcaldy will maintain new journey opportunities to north Fife and Dundee, improving access to the rail + Inclusion: network for inter-urban journeys.

Integration: + Slight positive impact. New service via Kirkcaldy and express trains to Dundee will facilitate rail-rail interchange. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table

Intervention Details: Bus links from Dundee to Carnoustie. Reference: IU-P02

Introduction of bus feeder services to provide a low-cost solution to improve journey times on inter-urban rail services via Dundee (IU- Description I13) Promoter Local bus operator

Source Arup internal

Additional bus priority measures could be required to support the current priority measures, but these could be funded through Capital Costs the Local Transport Strategy submission.

Operating Costs It is proposed that existing services are revised, so additional operating costs will be minimal. Indicative Financial Additional passengers attracted by the improved connectivity to Dundee and Carnoustie stations should cover the small Revenue Impact: increase in operating costs

Third Party Funding Potential contribution from Local Transport Strategies.

Cost to Public Sector Unknown

Background Information: Existing rail services to intermediate stations between Dundee and Carnoustie are constrained by poor frequencies operating at irregular intervals.This attracts a low level of demand, and the rail service is competing with a high frequency bus service. The requirement to Scheme Context: serve these small intermediate stations also extends journey times on inter-urban services. The existing bus services would be modified to improve connectivity with Dundee and Carnoustie stations and the intermediate residential areas, delivering a cost effective solution This intervention would also allow inter-urban rail journey times to be reduced.

Planning Objectives: Supports plan-led growth and regeneration, offers improved integration between modes, fosters social inclusion, represents a shift to sustainable transport, supports the role of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and provides more competitive links between the Links with the Planning Central Belt and other cities; providing more competitive public transport links between the Central Belt and other Scottish cities. About Objectives: 1,200 new homes are planned for Dundee, plus additional employment and office land. Bus services could ben extended beyond Dundee city centre to serve regeneration areas in the western part of the city.

Passenger numbers using the existing intermediate stations are relatively low, this is possibly affected by the poor service frequencies. A Rationale for Short-listing: bus-based solution offers a low-cost solution to expand the public transport market for this corridor.

Implementability Appraisal:

No significant technical barriers to address, although the bus priority measures to facilitate an efficient and reliable local bus network Technical: could be further improved, given the growing significance of this corridor.

Operational: Requires co-operation with local bus operators to modify existing services to improve connectivity between to residential areas.

Business case would be strengthened by modifying existing bus services to make the routes more convenient attracting additional Financial: patronage. Revenue benefits are also likely to accrue from improving inter-urban rail journey times.

Scheme could attract local support. Improved connectivity to local rail hubs with reliable bus services will deliver benefits, particularly for Public: households without access to a car.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Neutral impact. Negligible environmental benefits resulting from motorists switching onto improved local bus services in order to access Environment: 0 rail hubs.

Neutral impact. Negligible accident benefits resulting from motorists switching onto improved local bus services in order to access rail Safety: 0 hubs.

Positive impact. Bus-based solution offers a relatively low-cost alternative to develop a public transport market for the Dundee- Economy: ++ Carnoustie corridor, improving frequencies for local users, allowing journey times on inter-urban services to be reduced. Revising an existing high frequency bus service could offer a more cost effective solution than rail alternatives

Access / Social Positive impact. Improved bus services and frequencies will offer significant benefits for households without access to a car, delivering ++ Inclusion: social inclusion benefits.

Positive impact. Significantly improved connectivity between local bus and rail networks by delivering connections to key rail stations. Integration: ++ Opportunity for joint bus-rail ticketing to encourage through journeys Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table

Intervention Details: Perth - Arbroath stopping service Reference: IU-P03

Introduce a new stopping rail service between Perth and Arbroath (IU-I12). Would involve construction of a new station at Dundee West. Description Also includes station improvements at Arbroath, Montrose, Carnoustie, Broughty Ferry and Monifieth.

Promoter Central, Angus and Dundee Councils

Source Tay Estuary Rail Study

Capital Costs £12.5m at 2002 prices, including an allowance for optimism bias at 66%

Operating Costs £1.92m per annum, £65.3m Present Value, but assumptions do not include an allowance for optimism bias (normally 41%)

Indicative Financial New service will attract 313,000 trips per annum, generating £1.095m revenue per annum. £40.5m Present Value (note Revenue Impact: revenue totals include 25% transfer from bus

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector About £37m over the appraisal period to fund the capital costs and the gap between revenue and operating costs

Background Information:

Existing stations between Perth and Arbroath are served by Glasgow-Aberdeen trains that fail to provide reasonable frequencies to smaller intermediate stations. The intermediate stopping pattern leads to uncompetitive journey times from the larger stations for inter- Scheme Context: urban trips. Introduction of a dedicated rail service and new station at Dundee West would support plan-led regeneration for Tayside, and allow inter-urban services to benefit from faster journey times.

Planning Objectives:

Intervention supports plan-led growth and regeneration, offers improved integration between modes, fosters social inclusion, represents Links with the Planning a shift to sustainable transport, supports the role of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs and provides more competitive links Objectives: between the Central Belt and other cities. An additional 3,000 new homes are planned for Perth, 1,200 in Dundee, plus additional land for employment and office uses

Intervention will deliver a step-change in public transport quality between Perth and Arbroath and support plan-led growth and regeneration initiatives in Dundee. Intervention will also improve accessibility and reduce social exclusion, enhance the efficiency and Rationale for Short-listing: effectiveness of rail operations, to improve the quality of the public transport on offer, and ensure the rail improvements are properly integrated with other public transport

Implementability Appraisal:

No major infrastructure constraints, although possessions will be required during the construction of the proposed station at Dundee Technical: West. Business case assumes that additional trains can be delivered without the requirement for extra infrastructure. Capital costs required to upgrade station facilitates and a new station at Dundee West

Timetables will need to be co-ordinated with the faster inter-urban services to avoid conflict with other passenger services and maintain a reliable rail service. This service could also be linked to a Glasgow - Perth service (extended from Dunblane). This would also deliver Operational: 2tph to Perth and Dundee. However, this proposal requires further assessment of the operational and performance impacts, since the LENNON data indicates there are very limited commercial benefits from operating such a through service

Previous modelling work indicates that financial subsidy will be required to support this service. Business case is strengthened if inter- urban journey times are improved. A bus-based alternative may offer better value for money than rail as well as more flexibility to serve the dispersed travel markets.The promoter's business case does not appear to take account of any potential competitive response from Financial: bus operators to protect their market share if the rail service was improved. Financial case for new station at Dundee West is dependent on the delivery of population and economic forecasts. The case for revising this proposal to operate to / from Fife rather than Perth is also weak, since the number of 'cross-Dundee' trips from Fife is very small.

Likely to attract reasonable support, given potential to enhance frequency from intermediate stations and improve connectivity to the Public: principal stations. New station at Dundee West can be expected to generate public support.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Slight positive impact. Improved rail service would attract motorist from the A90 corridor resulting in environmental benefits in terms of Environment: + emissions / particulate matter.

Slight positive impact. Improved rail service would attract motorist from the A90 corridor resulting in safety benefits, with the reduction of Safety: + 3 accidents. Modest improvements for personal security arising from the station enhancements

Slight positive impact. Reduced journey times for some inter-urban services, with reduced wait times for local rail journeys. Journey time Economy: + savings quantified as £1.08m per annum.

Slight positive impact. New station at Dundee West would improve access to the rail network for households with access to a private car. Access / Social + Intervention offers limited other benefits for households without access to a car, due to the remote station locations. Benefits will be Inclusion: smaller than the alternative bus service, since the proposed rail frequencies would be significantly lower

Integration: + Slight positive impact. Better access to major rail hubs for rail-rail integration. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table

Service improvements from Edinburgh to Perth and Inverness, Intervention Details: plus associated capacity improvements on the Highland Main Reference: IU-P04 Line

Hourly Inverness to Edinburgh service, with reduced journey times (IU-I01, IU-I02, IU-I03). Additional commuter services from Perth to Edinburgh to support planned housing growth in Perth and north Fife. Earlier arrival and departure times at Inverness could be introduced (IU- I04), and increased frequencies will reduce wait times at Inverness for onward connections (RRN-I03). Intervention could include additional Description peak trains from Perth to Edinburgh, depending on the take-up of housing in Perth and north Fife. Capacity on the Highland Main Line would be increased, both to support an enhanced passenger service, but could also support additional freight traffic. Improved services to / from Inverness will also connect with Aberdeen trains at Perth to facilitate interchange and access to Glasgow. Intervention may require capacity improvements between Haymarket and Inverkeithing to improve timetable resiliency (ED-I04).

Promoter HITRANS, First ScotRail, Central Council

Source Arup internal

Capital Costs Capital costs for additonal capacity (passing loops) are estimated as £60m including an allowance of 66% for optimism bias

£5.65m per annum, including an allowance for optimism bias. Potential savings could be achieved from a more detailed timetabling Operating Costs exercise to deploy units units on other routes to reduce costs.

The service improvement for the Highland Main Line would create a significant step-change in service quality. This proposal will Indicative require a detailed assessment of the potential market, since the number of highway trips via the A9 corridor towards Edinburgh Revenue Financial represented in the TMfS also appears to be under-represented. Consequently, further work is required to identify the potential Impact: demand

Scottish Executive has agreed to fund Phase 1A of the Waverley Station upgrade, and the Stirling - Alloa - Kincardine project that Third Party Funding will create sufficient capacity on the Fife Circle for the enhanced services to Perth and Inverness. Both additional services are assumed to operate via Kirkcaldy.

Cost to Public Sector Unknown

Background Information:

The rail service to Inverness from Edinburgh / Glasgow is inadequate, both in terms of journey time and frequency to support an economically buoyant city in the Highlands and compete with the A9 / M90 routes. Commuter services from Perth to Edinburgh are also Scheme Context: inadequate, offering slow journey times and poor frequencies with different routeings via Kirkcaldy or Dunblane. Some parts of the Highland Main Line are also approaching capacity, and this could restrict the future opportunities for additional freight movements unless additional capacity is created.

Planning Objectives:

Intervention would support plan-led growth and regeneration in the Highlands, encourage transport integration, support the roles of Scottish Links with the Planning cities as economic and service hubs especially those outwith Glasgow and Edinburgh, promote tourism, and provide more competitive Objectives: linkages between the Central Belt and other cities. About 9,000 new homes at Inverness are forecast, with 1750 new homes at Newtonmore, 3000 new homes at Perth and 3,000 new homes at Kirkcaldy

The intervention is a relatively low cost solution to deliver an improved rail service to compete more effectively with car in terms of both Rationale for Short-listing: journey time and frequency compared with the A9 / M90. Proposal will also deliver significantly improved commuting opportunities from Perth to Edinburgh compared with the current timetable. Could create additional capacity to support new freight flows using the Highland Main Line.

Implementability Appraisal:

Construction of additional passing loops between Ladybank and Perth, and possibly near Newtonmore and Dalwhinnine. Construction is Technical: likely to require weekend possessions, although they should be relatively straightforward to deliver. Station improvements also required at Perth to improve waiting environment, given interchange with the Aberdeen services for journeys towards Edinburgh.

Timetables for the Highland Main Line and the services via Kirkcaldy will need to be restructured (changes need to take account of the Aberdeen line trains), and the development of the proposed interchange at Perth. Intervention will also establish a regular service interval for Operational: the intermediate stations between Perth and Inverness. Key considerations are the flighting of services via the Fife Circle, to reflect the different operating speeds, and minimise the likelihood of reactionary delays. The Rules of the Plan may need to be revised to accommodate the possible timetable changes, and ensure a resilient timetable is delivered.

Improved rail service to Inverness will require financial support, particularly until the service has been marketed effectively, and the housing Financial: growth in Perth (3,100 new homes) and North Fife (2,450 new homes) has been delivered.

Public: Strong public support, given the potential step-change in rail service between Edinburgh and principal stations to Inverness.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Positive impact. Significantly improved rail service from Perth and Inverness to Edinburgh will attract car drivers from the parallel A9 / M90 Environment: ++ routes, delivering environmental benefits.

Positive impact. Significantly improved rail service from Perth and Inverness to Edinburgh will attract car drivers from the parallel A9 / M90 Safety: ++ routes, reducing the number of accidents on these strategic routes

Positive impact. Intervention will deliver journey time reductions of about 15 minutes between Edinburgh and Inverness compared with the majority of existing services, and frequency benefits (regular hourly departures). Service improvement south of Perth offers a significant step- Economy: ++ change in services for commuters, particularly if train frequencies are increased to 2tph in the longer term. Intervention would also increase train capacity from the principal stations, helping to alleviate passenger overcrowding

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Intervention will deliver a regular service interval to the intermediate stations on the Highland Main Line, this will offer + Inclusion: benefits for households without access to a car.

Positive impact. Intervention will establish Perth as a key interchange, enabling passengers to transfer between the Inverness-Edinburgh and Integration: ++ the Aberdeen-Glasgow services without incurring excessive waiting time. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table

Intervention Details: Improved service between Aberdeen and Inverness, Reference: NES-P01 gauge enhancement to Elgin, and Aberdeen Crossrail Phase 2

Introduction of a regular hourly service between Aberdeen and Inverness (IU-I07), extended to Stonehaven (IU-I15). Hourly Edinburgh or Description Glasgow trains extended to Inverurie to create 2tph between Stonehaven and Inverurie. Intervention also assumes the completion of gauge clearance from Mossend to Elgin via Aberdeen.

Promoter NESTRANS

Source STAG 1 report produced for NESTRANS

Capital Costs £45m including optimism bias, includes a new station at Kintore north of Dyce to improve access to passenger services

Operating Costs Additional £1.5m per annum (£39.5m Present Value) for the enhanced passenger services

Indicative Financial Revenue New services will generate £0.718m per annum (£11.65m Present Value) from the enhanced passenger service. Impact:

Third Party Funding None confirmed, although the Scottish Executive has provided the funding to complete a STAG 2 appraisal.

£73m (capital costs, plus the operating deficit). However, this intervention delivers the best ratio of additional passengers per £ Cost to Public Sector subsidy required, compared to other options evaluated, including bus-based alternatives

Background Information: Principal journey to work area for Aberdeen includes Inverurie (17 miles north west) to Stonehaven (14 miles south). Proposal has been examined by a STAG 1 appraisal previously, with different combinations of mode (bus or rail), service frequencies, service patterns and new stations. A technical study has also been completed, with the rail scheme costs developed to GRIP 4 detail. STAG 1 assumed that Scheme Context: Incremental Output Statement scheme on the Aberdeen - Inverness route would not be completed, but the proposed freight terminal at Raithes Farm, gauge enhancement to Elgin and 0.25tph freight paths to Elgin would be delivered. A further £400,000 of funding has been awarded by the SE to undertake a STAG 2 appraisal. From December 2005, some trains that currently terminate at Dyce will be extended to Inverurie - this forms the first phase of Aberdeen Crossrail

Planning Objectives:

The intervention supports plan-led growth and regeneration, improves integration between transport modes, fosters social inclusion, Links with the Planning encourages shift to more sustainable modes, supports roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs, especially those outwith Objectives: Glasgow & Edinburgh. About 1000 new houses are planned for Inverurie, and a further 800 new homes at Porthlethen.

Rationale for Short-listing: This intervention delivers the strongest benefit cost ratio of the options appraised by the STAG 1.

Implementability Appraisal:

Technical: New station to be constructed at Kintore, plus the construction of static passing loops at Kintore and Kittybrewster (north of Aberdeen).

Retimetabling of services, particularly on the Aberdeen to Inverness line, and ensuring the services extended to Stonehaven are about Operational: 30 minutes apart from the Edinburgh / Glasgow services, minimising the likelihood of timetabling conflicts occurring.

This option generates about 200 new public transport trips per day, comprising 150 walk-in trips, 80 park & ride trips and 70 external Financial: trips, but 100 trips are abstracted from bus. Funding source to cover the difference in operating cost and revenue has been identified.

Intervention will offer a step-change in public transport quality to serve the Aberdeen travel to work area, and offer a viable alternative to Public: driving. Strong level of public support should be given.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Environment: + Slight positive impact. Intervention will abstract 1.73m car kilometres from the road network annually, delivering environmental benefits

Safety: 0 Neutral. Unlikely to have a significant benefit in reducing accidents on the A90 / A96 corridors.

Slight positive impact. Intervention offers a significant step change in train frequencies between Stonehaven and Inverurie to support the housing growth. Additional train frequencies would also prevent overcrowding on existing services if housing growth occurs. However, Economy: + intervention will be dependent on £28m funding support over the appraisal period to cover the difference between operating and capital costs. No improvement in on-train or station facilities

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Improved frequencies will enhance access to the rail network. Construction of a new station at Kintore will + Inclusion: improve access to the rail network, particularly for households without access to a car

Neutral impact. Limited scope to integrate buses with enhanced rail service, since buses may compete with rail service to try and Integration: 0 maintain market share. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table

Intervention Details: Aberdeen Crossrail Phase 3 Reference: NES-P02

Intervention builds on the second phase of Aberdeen Crossrail by further improving train frequencies between Inverurie and Stonehaven Description with a dedicated 2tph overlaid onto the existing timetable, with new stations serving Aberdeen Airport, Aberdeen South and Newtonhill. (All IU-I16)

Promoter NESTRANS

Source STAG 1 report produced for NESTRANS

£90m including optimism bias (assuming Phase 1 is completed first), includes the three new stations described above, and Capital Costs additional passing loops north of Aberdeen to facilitate the higher service frequency.

Estimated annual operating costs for a dedicated 2tph service with Turbostar units, plus the service extensions proposed in Operating Costs Phase 1 is £4.7m per annum (£123.79m Present Value)

Indicative Financial Revenue forecasts generate £0.943m per annum. (£20.29m Present Value). Additional 5,700 new homes planned for Impact: Aberdeen, although it is unclear from the STAG methodology the number of houses included in the appraisal methodology. Revenue Results indicate a significant financial surplus would be required to support the service. This intervention does not deliver the strongest financial case of the options tested

None confirmed, although the Scottish Executive has provided the funding to complete a STAG 2 appraisal to identify the Third Party Funding preferred option (£400,000 contribution)

Cost to Public Sector £193.5m (capital costs, plus the operating deficit).

Background Information:

Principal journey to work area for Aberdeen extends from Inverurie (17 miles north west) to Stonehaven (14 miles south). Proposal has been examined by a STAG 1 appraisal previously, with different combinations of train frequencies, service patterns and new stations. A technical study has also been completed, with scheme costs developed to GRIP 4 detail. STAG 1 assumed that Incremental Output Scheme Context: Statement scheme would not be completed, but the proposed freight terminal at Raithes Farm, gauge enhancement to Elgin and 0.25tph freight paths to Elgin would be delivered. Intervention would build on earlier enhancements between Aberdeen and Inverness and Aberdeen Crossrail Phase 1 and 2 to improve rail services to support the Aberdeen travel to work area.

Planning Objectives: The intervention supports plan-led growth and regeneration, improves integration between transport modes, fosters social inclusion, Links with the Planning encourages shift to more sustainable modes, support roles of Scottish cities as economic and service hubs, especially those outwith Objectives: Glasgow & Edinburgh. About 1000 new houses are planned for Inverurie, and a further 800 new homes at Porthlethen, and 5,800 new homes in Aberdeen (some may be in-scope to the railway).

Rationale for Short-listing: Intervention would build on the first phase of Crossrail by delivering a step-change in service quality for the Aberdeen travel to work area

Implementability Appraisal:

Technical: Three new stations to be constructed at Kintore, plus the construction of further passing loops.

Retimetabling of services, particularly on the Aberdeen to Inverness line, and ensuring the services extended to Stonehaven / Portlethen are about 30 minutes apart from the Edinburgh / Glasgow services. Dedicated services would need to be superimposed onto the Operational: existing timetable. Consideration must be given to the flighting of services, to ensure the local services do not conflict with other inter- urban routes

This option generates about 350 new public transport trips per day, comprising 940 walk-in trips, 85 park & ride trips and 74 external Financial: trips, but 750 trips are abstracted from bus. Funding source to cover the difference in operating cost and revenue yet to be identified.

Intervention will offer a step-change in public transport quality to serve the Aberdeen travel to work area, and offer a viable alternative to Public: use of the private car. Strong level of public support should be given.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Environment: + Positive impact. Intervention will abstract 2.96m car kilometres from the road network annually, delivering environmental benefits

Safety: 0 Neutral impact. Unlikely to have a significant benefit in reducing accidents on the A90 / A96 corridors.

Negative impact. The intervention offers a significant step change in train frequencies to support the housing growth with 4tph between Economy: -- Inverurie and Stonehaven. However, improved services will require £100m funding support over the appraisal period to cover the difference between operating costs and revenues

Access / Social Positive impact, improved frequencies will enhance access to the rail network. Construction of new station at Kintore, Aberdeen Airport, ++ Inclusion: Aberdeen South and Newtonhill will improve access to the rail network, particularly for households without access to a car

Neutral impact. Limited scope to integrate buses with enhanced rail service, since buses may compete with rail service to try and Integration: 0 maintain market share. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Glasgow South Western Corridor Reference: GSW-P01 Busby Junction improvements; 2tph between Glasgow Central and Kilmarnock (GSW-I12) (including additional infrastructure) of which 1tph extended to Girvan and intermittently to Stranraer assuming current frequencies are maintained (RRS-I03), amend departure times Description to Stranraer (RRS-I01). Examine the feasibility of introducing a lower cost/innovative revenue solutions model (RRS-I03). Train lengthening on the Kilmarnock route would relieve crowding on some peak services. Promoter Dumfries & Galloway Council, WESTRANS, First ScotRail to deliver

Source Stakeholder aspirations

Estimated cost for improvements to Busby Junction are £1m (if delivered at the same time of junction renewals), and additional Capital Costs passing loop between Barrhead and Kilmarnock is £20m (costs include an allowance of 66% for optimism bias)

Operating costs are £3.5m per annum for an hourly service to Girvan from Glasgow Central via Kilmarnock (including an Operating Costs allowance of 41% for optimism bias). Assumed operating costs for services to Stranraer are unchanged Indicative Financial Impact: Improved rail service could generate additional revenue, particularly between Kilmarnock and Glasgow for flows competing Revenue with the M77. More detailed analysis is required to understand the potential transfer to rail from car required.

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Modest costs to cover the infrastructure costs described above, and the additional subsidy

Background Information:

The section between Kilmarnock and Barrhead is single track with a passing loop at Lugton. This track layout prevents 2tph operating all day between Glasgow and Kilmarnock although there is a limited peak 2tph service.. The service to Stranraer is timetabled around the Scheme Context: ferry departures, but the relocation of the ferry terminal to Cairnryan will remove these timing constraints. Busby Junction (convergence of routes from Kilmarnock and East Kilbride) is a single lead, and this causes timetabling constraints. The existing service pattern on the Kilmarnock / Troon / Ayr route is poorly integrated with passenger services on the GSW.

Planning Objectives:

New housing is planned for the corridor (8000 at Kilmarnock 400 at Girvan, 300 at Stranraer); the increase in service frequency between Links with the Planning Kilmarnock and Glasgow will ensure better service by rail to compete more effectively with the recently extended M77. Services will also Objectives: improve connectivity to Prestwick Airport from stations on the GSW - this is important given the significant planned airport expansion.

Current service to Kilmarnock is only hourly, and this frequency is inadequate to compete with the recently extended / improved M77 / Rationale for Short-listing: A77. Furthermore, opportunities to interchange between the Troon line and the GSW at Kilmarnock are poor. Improved / restructured passenger timetable with Kilmarnock developed as a key interchange will tackle these constraints.

Implementability Appraisal:

Technical: Improve track layout at Busby Junction, and construct an additional passing loop between Kilmarnock and Barrhead.

Timetabling review required, amendments to the timetable will create better connections at Kilmarock with the GSW services, and the timing of trains extended beyond Girvan to Stranraer can be modified to better meet the requirements of other passengers, rather than Operational: just ferry users. Electrification of the Whifflet line allowing trains to be diverted via the Low Level station at Glasgow Central is required to free sufficient platform capacity at the High Level station for the higher train frequencies to Kilmarnock. Service improvements to Kilmarnock will require financial support, but will deliver a step-change in rail service quality for the M77 / A77 Financial: corridor. Hourly service from the Kilmarnock route to Prestwick and Girvan (for Cairnryan) will also improve connectivity to these principal public transport hubs.

Public: Unlikely to encounter public opposition.

Government's Objectives for Transport Slight positive impact. Improved rail service between Kilmarnock and Glasgow Central will attract motorists from the M77 corridor, Environment: + delivering environmental benefits

Slight positive impact. Improved rail service between Kilmarnock and Glasgow Central will attract motorists from the M77 corridor, Safety: + reducing the number of accidents on the M77.

Positive impact. Intervention will deliver improved frequencies and offer new direct journey opportunities, therefore cutting wait time at Economy: ++ stations, particularly benefiting the Kilmarnock route. Overcrowding will also be reduced following improved frequencies and train lengthening. Access / Social Slight positive impact. Improved train frequencies on the Kilmarnock route will enhance access to the rail network, particularly for + Inclusion: passengers without access to a car.

Positive impact. Intervention will significantly improved end-to-end journey times to key public transport hubs in South West Scotland, Integration: ++ through the restructured timetable delivering better connectivity to Prestwick Airport and Girvan (for connections to Cairnryan). Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Glasgow South Western Corridor Reference: GSW-P02

Capacity enhancements for the Glasgow South Western corridor (GSW-I10), including additional line capacity between Eastriggs and Gretna (track doubling - AS-I10), run round loop at Mauchline to allow freight services to be repositioned (GSW-I08, AS-I16, RRS-I05), and improvements to the absolute block signalling (also AS-I10), and revised track layout at Dumfries (AS-I15). Passenger service to be Description revised to provide a regular two-hourly service between Glasgow Central and Carlisle via Kilmarnock (AS-I09, AS-I13). A restructured passenger timetable will also deliver freight capacity benefits. Intervention would also include a routeing strategy for Hunterston freight traffic to be prepared, particularly if the proposals to deliver a deep-sea container port are implemented (GSW-I09) (although the delivery of the container port is not dependent on the cessation of the existing coal services.

Promoter WESTRANS, First ScotRail and freight operators to deliver

Source Stakeholder aspirations

Cost of track doubling between Eastriggs and Gretna, improved signalling, and the cost of constructing the run-round facility at Mauchline is up to £200m (estimates have been benchmarked against other out-turn costs for other freight enhancements Capital Costs including Felixstowe to Nuneaton and Southampton to the West Midlands, and include gauge clearance costs), but this will require further detailed work.

Indicative Operating Costs Negligible change, since passenger service frequencies on the GSW are unchanged. Financial Revised passenger service would generate limited additional revenue, but intervention creates scope for additional freight Impact: Revenue capacity

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector None confirmed

Background Information:

The Glasgow South Western (GSW) route is heavily used for freight, with a passenger service that operates about every 2 hours between Glasgow and Carlisle (irregular departure times). There are a number of constraints on the route that restrict the level of freight Scheme Context: use, consequently some freight services to northern England originating from Hunterston must use the Shotts route and the East Coast Main Line. Currently the single track sections between Troon and Kilmarnock, and Mauchline Junction and Newton-on-Ayr are predominantly used as single direction routes. This can force coal trains to make lengthy diversions to re-position.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning The GSW is an important freight route, and increasing its capacity will reduce the amount of freight that is forced to use alternative Objectives: routes, for example, the Shotts route.

Current mix of freight and passenger services using the route does not optimise existing capacity. Selected capacity improvements could Rationale for Short-listing: allow a significantly higher quantity of freight to use the route, alleviating pressure on other routes. A restructured passenger timetable would see Kilmarnock becoming a key interchange.

Implementability Appraisal:

Technical: Need to construct a rounding loop at Mauchline, upgrade signalling, gauge clearance and double track Eastriggs to Gretna.

Timetabling review required to allow additional freight movements. Timetable must allow convenient interchange between the GSW and Operational: the Troon route at Kilmarnock

The package of interventions for the GSW are likely to generate significant benefits, particularly the capacity relief that could be Financial: delivered on other parts of the network (for example, the Shotts route and the ECML), and used for an improved passenger service

Public: Unlikely to encounter public opposition.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Positive impact. The rounding loop, and the other capacity enhancements will create additional freight capacity, delivering environmental Environment: ++ benefits both locally (in terms of greater network efficiency), regionally and nationally by removing lorries from the roads, and creating capacity for additional passenger services on other parts of the network.

Slight positive impact. The rounding loop, and the other capacity enhancements will create additional freight capacity, and reduce the Safety: + number of accidents by creating opportunities for better passenger rail services to locations elsewhere on the network.

Positive impact. Step change in freight capacity for the GSW will generate positive economic impacts. Impact for passenger services Economy: ++ likely to be negligible

Access / Social 0 Neutral impact. A restructured, clockface timetable will deliver a negligible improvement to passengers accessing the rail network Inclusion:

Integration: 0 Neutral impact. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Improved electric service to South West Glasgow Reference: SWG-P01 Adopt a skip-stop calling pattern east of Paisley Gilmour Street (GSW-I02), allowing an additional 1tph to Ayr (GSW-I04). Review Description allocation of rolling stock (3 and 6-car formations on the Ayr and Port Glasgow routes). Improve station facilities at Prestwick Airport station. Promoter WESTRANS, First ScotRail to implement

Source WESTRANS, Network Rail, Arup internal

Revised stopping pattern east of Paisley Gilmour Street makes better use of existing line capacity; no additional infrastructure Capital Costs would be required

Operating Costs £2.95m per annum for an additional service to Ayr (includes an allowance of 41% for optimism bias).

Indicative The current and forecast load factors for the Ayr routes indicate crowding will affect services, particularly south west of Paisley Financial Gilmour Street. An additional service would be required to alleviate crowding, and support the forecast housing and airport Revenue Impact: growth on the Ayrshire coast and Prestwick Airport respectively. Timetabling study required to minimise the potential loss in revenue if journey times from Wemyss Bay, Ardrossan and Largs are slightly extended.

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Not known

Background Information: Demand on the Ayr route is high, with passenger crowding currently observed south of Paisley Gilmour Street. The Gourock route appears over-specified, in terms of train frequencies compared with current demand. However, the population and employment proposals outlined in the Glasgow Clyde Valley Structure Plan will increase demand on this route, and any service reductions would Scheme Context: conflict with wider objectives. Proposal to revise the current calling pattern of trains that currently serve the three intermediate stations east of Paisley Gilmour Street to a skip-stop pattern would make more effective use of line capacity. Number of trips between the intermediate stations (for example, Hillington West to Hillington East) is very small (less than 1000 trips per annum), so the potential impacts from removing the through services is likely to be small.

Planning Objectives:

Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration in Glasgow, facilitates access to airports (Prestwick), supports shift to more sustainable Objectives: modes of transport. About 8,000 new homes planned for Irvine, and a further 8,000 new homes planned for Ayr

Rationale for Short-listing: This package of interventions maximises existing line capacity and serves a growing market towards Ayr.

Implementability Appraisal: Technical: No technical barriers to implementation

An extra 1tph to Ayr is feasible given the retimetabling of services between Paisley Gilmour Street and Glasgow Central that will Operational: maximise existing line capacity.

Intervention should generate a reasonable business case, reflecting the potential demand growth on the Ayr corridor, and the significant Financial: passenger growth from Prestwick Airport. Additional capacity required to support planned growth

Although passengers travelling between Hillington West, Hillington East and Cardonald will be inconvenienced by the service changes, Public: the number of passengers affected is small. Intervention will support planned growth on the Ayr corridor, and the better service frequency will attract strong public support.

Government's Objectives for Transport Slight positive impact. Potential for mode shift to rail should have positive environmental implications by discouraging potential traffic Environment: + growth from using the A77 / M77 corridor

Slight positive impact. Mode switch is encouraged from road to (relatively safe) rail, reducing the number of accidents on the A77 / M77 Safety: + routes

Positive impact. Offers a relatively low cost intervention to make better use of existing line capacity, thus allowing an additional hourly Economy: ++ service to be delivered to Ayr to support the population and airport-related growth planned. Train frequencies will also increase, and crowding levels will be reduced. Timetable changes will mean adverse operational reliability and performance impacts will be minimised.

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Improved rail service to the Ayrshire coast will deliver better access to employment and leisure opportunities in + Inclusion: Glasgow, given the planned population growth for the corridor

Slight positive impact. The intervention provides a better rail service to Prestwick airport, increasing train frequencies from 2tph to 3tph Integration: + from Glasgow Central to Ayr Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Improved electric service to South West Glasgow Reference: SWG-P02

Signalling improvements between Paisley Gilmour Street and Kilwinning; electrification of Largs freight-only line (effective double Description tracking) (GSW-I07, GSW-I08, GSE-I10, GSW-I09); and a new link from Paisley Canal to Elderslie and capacity improvements on the branch line (GSW-I14), additional hourly service from Ayr to Glasgow Central (GSW-I04).

Promoter Freight Operating Companies, First ScotRail

Source Central Scotland Capacity Study (Railtrack), SPT, WESTRANS

Capital Costs Intervention will require significant capital costs, and the requirements are strongly linked to future potential freight growth

Operating Costs Additional £2.95m operating costs per annum including an allowance of 41% for optimism bias Indicative Intervention will deliver significant benefits, particularly if proposed freight developments occur. Further hourly service to Ayr Financial Revenue will help to support housing growth and air passenger growth at Prestwick Airport Impact: Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Not known

Background Information: Hunterston (on the Largs branch line) may become a container port if the coal traffic to Longannet, and other power stations in northern England ceases. Consequently, there is potential for the current freight volumes to increase. Significant housing growth is planned for the Ayr corridor as well as threefold growth in passenger traffic to Glasgow Prestwick airport from 2m to 6m passengers per annum. The airport currently achieves a 30% mode share, and the relatively poor road links to the airport means this proportion should be retained. Scheme Context: However, the opening of GARL will put extra pressure on the existing capacity constraints on the network east of Paisley Gilmour Street. There are also proposals to expand a freight terminal at Elderslie, but the capacity constraints east of Paisley Gilmour Street will mean an alternative route to Shields Junction is required. The single track sections on the Paisley Canal line will need to be upgraded to create additional capacity and extended to Elderslie.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration in Glasgow and shift to more sustainable modes of transport, facilitates access to ports and Objectives: airports (Prestwick),

This package is based on upgrading the existing line to allow better performance against the policy objectives described above. It will Rationale for Short-listing: provide greater scope for achieving a step-change in rail service to the Ayrshire coast, albeit at a higher cost.

Implementability Appraisal: Delivering adequate freight access requires a link from Paisley Canal to Elderslie and the electrification of Largs branch line from Technical: Hunterston junction to Ardrossan South Junction. Signalling improvements to the west of Paisley GS will reduce headways, allowing additional passenger services.

Operational: Signalling improvements between Paisley and Kilwinning are required to facilitate the extra hourly service to Ayr from Glasgow.

The extension from Paisley Canal to Elderslie is only likely to be viable if the freight terminal is expanded, and other freight terminals in Financial: central Scotland operate at capacity. The business case for these improvements may be weaker than the other intervention for South West Glasgow (ref GSW-P01), and may only be required towards the end of the assessment period.

Unlikely to encounter public opposition. Will be politically more acceptable than the other intervention for South West Glasgow (ref GSW Public: P-01) which involves some service alterations.

Government's Objectives for Transport Positive impact. Potential for considerable mode shift to rail given the significant population and airport growth, delivering environmental Environment: ++ benefits if traffic from the M77 / A77 was removed.

Slight positive impact. Potential for considerable mode shift to rail given the significant population and airport growth, delivering accident Safety: + savings if traffic from the M77 / A77 was removed.

Positive impact. package will enable rail to support the economy of Glasgow (in underpinning a wide labour catchment and access to Economy: ++ airports for business and leisure travel). Additional capacity on the Paisley Canal branch will support inter-modal freight growth, and complement the expanded terminal at Elderslie.

Access / Social Positive impact. Growth in population forecast for the rail corridor will have better access to the employment and leisure opportunities in ++ Inclusion: Glasgow.

Integration: ++ Positive impact. Package will provide better links and facilitate greater service reliability for both of Glasgow's airports. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Glasgow Crossrail - Reference: GC-P01

The "Base level" comprises the operation of additional services from Kilmarnock, Barrhead and East Kilbride via the re-opened Strathbungo link and a new connection at High Street to Charing Cross. "Incremental stage" comprises services between Falkirk Description Grahamston, Dunblane and Edinburgh to Ayr and Kilmarnock - note these services are all wholly new trains, and do not replace existing services. (All GSW-I11)

Promoter SPT

Various technical studies completed on behalf of SPT by Scott Wilson and MVA (Glasgow Cross-city link Appraisal for Local Service Source Options, Glasgow Cross-city Rail Link Demand Study) Technical Feasibility Study (Scott Wilson)

Technical Feasibility report prepared for Scott Wilson range from £115m to £188m (calculated at Q1 2005 prices, and including 66% optimism bias). However, estimated capital costs do not include any allow for additional infrastructure to support Capital Costs additional train services, for example, East Kilbride or Kilmarnock. Analysis of the network indicates that extra capacity would be required on these routes to support the extra frequencies, and therefore capital costs could significantly increase

Operating Costs Annual operating costs range from £3m to £25m depending on the combination of infrastructure and train service options. Indicative Financial TEE tables prepared for SPT (Option D4, Appraisal of Local Service Option by MVA) indicate that revenues cover about 55% Impact: Revenue of operating costs over the appraisal period (£14.5m PV revenue). Contributory factors include the relatively low level of cross- city travel, and the limited access to Glasgow city centre

Third Party Funding None confirmed yet

Public sector will need to fund the on-going deficit between operating costs and revenue. TEE tables prepared for SPT indicate Cost to Public Sector the economic benefits generated will cover the capital costs , although no source has been identified to fund the capital costs

Background Information: Glasgow Crossrail closes a gap in the Scottish rail network enabling new connections between the north and south Glasgow rail networks and increases accessibility to the city, by introducing new journey opportunities to Charing Cross, although the journey times will be extended compared with the timing to Glasgow Central. The study also claims the scheme will improve connectivity to key Scheme Context: interchanges, encourage social inclusion, and reduce levels of car use by offering credible alternatives. However, the South West - North East corridor is outside the principal Glasgow Clyde Valley 'Corridor of Growth' that will act as the principal focus for residential and employment growth, although it would offer some improved connections to Ayrshire benefiting plan-led housing growth and Prestwick Airport growth.

Planning Objectives: Support plan-led growth and regeneration particularly in Glasgow, improve integration between transport modes, foster social inclusion, Links with the Planning shift to more sustainable transport modes, reduce the harmful environmental impacts of travel. Improved accessibility for cross-Glasgow Objectives: trips

Glasgow Crossrail will introduce new journey opportunities for cross-city movements, and deliver wider social inclusion and access, and Rationale for Short-listing: supports the delivery of certain planning objectives.

Implementability Appraisal: Technical study by Scott Wilson for SPT demonstrates that the introduction of passenger services via the Strathbungo link and the High Street curve is feasible. Feasibility of introducing additional trains to Kilmarnock / Ayr / East Kilbride and Dunblane / Falkirk was outside Technical: the remit of the study, but will require additional work. The introduction of these trains is likely to require additional infrastructure capacity to support the new services, and these costs have yet to be quantified by the scheme promoter.

Additional services to Kilmarnock / Ayr / East Kilbride and Dunblane / Falkirk Grahamston will need to be incorporated into the timetable. Operational: Careful consideration needs to be given to the inter-working of new trains with existing services.

Whilst the demand assessment (Glasgow Cross-city Rail Link Demand Study) concluded there are significant number of in-scope trips, we believe this conclusion may over-state the actual number of in-scope trips that would be attracted by a new rail cross-city rail service. Financial: Given the relatively small number of trips, we envisage significant financial support would be required to cover the difference between operating costs and revenue.

Public reaction may be positive, since the intervention will introduce new cross-Glasgow journey opportunities. However, the additional Public: services will offer longer journey times to the city centre, which may generate adverse public reaction.

Government's Objectives for Transport Slight positive impact. Glasgow Crossrail will offer an alternative to car for cross-Glasgow trips, delivering environmental benefits. Environment: + Intervention will generate some environmental dis-benefits during construction though.

Slight positive impact. Glasgow Crossrail will offer an alternative to car for cross-Glasgow trips, reducing the number of accidents on the Safety: + busy motorway network in Glasgow / Central Belt.

Negative impact. Although Glasgow Crossrail will improve train frequencies between suburban stations and reduce the requirement for interchange, the scheme will only cover about 50% of its operating costs through fare-box revenue. Relatively small cross-city travel market indicates the potential to improve the financial position is limited. The indicative capital costs do not include the infrastructure Economy: -- investment required elsewhere on the network. Some journey times will be extended. We also believe there are lower cost and less technically complex solutions to the identified transport needs, such as improving frequencies between Glasgow Central and Edinburgh via Shotts or Carstairs. The proposed improvements with Cumbernauld trains modified / extended to operate on the North Electrics route also offers opportunities for cross-city movements that will better support the proposed population growth in the Glasgow Clyde Valley.

Access / Social + Slight positive impact. Crossrail will encourage social inclusion, particularly around the Gorbals area of Glasgow Inclusion:

Slight positive impact. Crossrail will improve access to key interchanges to encourage model interchange including Charing Cross and Integration: + the subway system at West Street, albeit with extended journey times. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Train lengthening/better connectivity for Reference: WED-P01 the Fife Circle from Clackmannan

Some rolling stock formations operating local services on the Fife Circle are short formed (less than the 6-car maximum) due to a Description shortage of units. Intervention includes extending all services operating as 6-car trains and a bus connection from Alloa to Dunfermline.

Promoter SE, SESTRAN, First ScotRail to implement

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Capital Costs No capital costs required, since platforms on the Fife Circle have already been lengthened to 6-car formations.

£1.2m per annum, including an allowance for optimism bias. Intervention assumes 3tph will be extended by 2-cars during each Operating Costs peak period Indicative Financial Train lengthening will have a small impact in generating wholly new demand. However, the extra capacity will help to support Impact: Revenue the planned population growth for Fife by reducing forecast load factors

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector £1.2m per annum, to cover costs of leasing rolling stock.

Background Information: The local services operating via Fife have the highest load factors in Scotland throughout the peak travel periods. Furthermore, the planned housing growth for Dunfermline (4,550 new homes) Kirkcaldy (3,000), Levenmouth (1,200), Glenrothes (1,700) and Markinch (2,450) will further increase load factors. The Edinburgh Airport Rail Link will also generate new demand. The committed interventions Scheme Context: will deliver limited additional capacity, so train lengthening to 6-cars will optimise existing line capacity. Existing bus connection from Alloa to Dunfermline could be modified to serve Dunfermline rail station additionally to improve public transport connectivity to Edinburgh, since the opportunity for a rail solution from Alloa would be extremely limited until the future of freight flows to Longannet is known.

Planning Objectives:

Links with the Planning Train lengthening represents a relatively cost-effective solution to increase train capacities. Will also facilitate sustainable plan-led Objectives: growth and regeneration in Edinburgh and Fife.

Completion of Phase 1 Waverley Station and Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine schemes will allow coal trains to Longannet to be diverted from the Forth Bridge, creating 2 additional train paths per hour towards Fife. Train lengthening will maximise these capacity benefits without Rationale for Short-listing: requiring additional infrastructure solutions. Bus solution to Alloa could offer the best short term solution to develop a public transport market from Alloa towards Edinburgh.

Implementability Appraisal: No major technical barriers to implementation since no platform extensions are assumed, although depot capacity for maintaining the Technical: additional units needs to be considered.

Platform capacity at Edinburgh Waverley Station needs to be considered if pairs of 2 or 3 car trains currently share the same platforms. Operational: The timetabling of the Alloa bus services will need to complement arrival and departure timings at Dunfermline.

Intervention could deliver a reasonable business case, given train lengthening to 6-car is a relatively low cost solution to optimise Financial: existing line capacity without requiring platforms to be lengthened. Bus-based solution for Alloa - Dunfermline forms a low cost solution to develop the public transport market.

Overcrowding is an important issue for passengers; so proposals to operate a higher proportion of trains with 6 cars and thus reduce Public: crowding levels will prove popular with commuters

Government's Objectives for Transport

Slight positive impact. Should help to minimise rail passengers switching to car, with subsequent environmental disbenefits. However, Environment: + the road alternative for journeys between Fife and Edinburgh via the Forth Bridge is also severely capacity constrained.

Slight positive impact. Should help to minimise rail passengers switching to car, with subsequent potential safety disbenefits. However, Safety: + the road alternative for journeys between Fife and Edinburgh via the Forth Bridge is also capacity constrained.

Positive impact. Intervention would reduce overcrowding on Fife routes, with scope to attract additional patronage given the extra capacity in the shoulder peak (before 08.00 and after 0900). This intervention should be implemented in conjunction with the proposed Economy: ++ pricing mechanism to encourage travel during the shoulder peaks and 'manage' future crowding levels. Bus-based solution for Alloa can be delivered at marginal cost, and forms the optimum financial solution, given the relatively low current passenger numbers. Intervention will have no impact on station facilities, journey times or rolling stock quality

Access / Social Positive impact. Train lengthening will encourage commuting trips from the new housing planned for Fife, given current crowding levels. ++ Inclusion: Alloa - Dunfermline bus feeder service will improve access to the rail network, particularly for households without access to a car.

Integration: + Slight positive impact. Bus feeder will improve links to Dunfermline rail station encouraging bus-rail interchange Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Split Fife Circle with services diverted to Levenmouth to Reference: WED-P02 introduce new journey opportunities and improve performance

Involves splitting up Fife Circle trains (1tph in each direction) with services diverted to new station at Levenmouth (ED-I02). Will also Description include signalling upgrades between Inverkeithing and Haymarket and increased capacity in the Glenrothes area to support freight growth (ED-I04/ ED-I18).

Promoter Fife Council, First ScotRail to implement

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Indicative capital costs estimated as £3.5m to upgrade the freight-only line, and construct a new station at Levenmouth Capital Costs (includes an allowance of 66% for optimism bias)

Operating Costs £0.8m per annum, (£29.8m PV)

Forecast farebox revenue is slightly lower than the operating costs (£26.1m PV revenue), so a small operating subsidy will be Indicative Revenue required Financial Impact: Third Party Funding None.

Funding source for the capital costs to be identified. Intervention generates a NPV of £0.2m over the lifetime of the appraisal, Cost to Public Sector although if a funding source can be identified for the capital costs and the operating deficit, this intervention will generate a positive BCR

Background Information: Fife Circle currently operates as a 'circular' route with 1tph in each direction, plus additional trains to Markinch / Cowdenbeath. However, this creates performance issues due to the constraints of timetabling of 'circular' services, given the requirement to path services on both sides of the Circle. Operating trains to Levenmouth could offer greater flexibility to timetable services more efficiently. Existing signalling Scheme Context: on the Forth Bridge permits only a single train on the bridge at any one time. Potential for new freight traffic via Glenrothes may require additional capacity to support additional train movements without affecting passenger services. Revised timetabling of Fife services could also develop a new passenger market to Levenmouth. There are significant development opportunities at Levenmouth with 1,200 new houses and office development planned.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Will facilitate plan-led growth and regeneration in Edinburgh and Fife, revised timetabling will present a cost-effective solution to improve Objectives: capacity

Will improve freight capacity and generally enhance timetabling of passenger services with an opportunity to serve new passenger Rationale for Short-listing: markets at a marginal cost.

Implementability Appraisal: Requires upgrading freight-only line to Levenmouth to passenger standards, including enhanced signalling, construction of new Technical: Levenmouth station. Also requires an infrastructure solution to increase route capacity in the Glenrothes area.

Operational: Timetabling study to asses the potential benefits from the revised service pattern - requires simulation modelling.

Scope to improve performance and reduce penalty payments, as well as the opportunity to serve new passenger markets. Patronage Financial: forecasts indicate 800 return trips will be made on the branch line, so the additional operating costs are virtually covered by fare-box revenue.

Likely to generate support given the scope for improved network performance and opportunities for better public access to rail services Public: from Levenmouth.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Slight positive impact. Small environmental benefits from extending passenger trains to Levenmouth, more significant benefits will result Environment: + from potential to abstract freight movements from the A9 (particularly if the biomass plant in the Highlands is developed).

Slight positive impact. Small safety benefits from extending passenger trains to Levenmouth, more significant benefits will result from Safety: + potential to abstract freight movements from the A9 (particularly if the biomass plant in the Highlands is developed).

Positive impact. Combination of potential freight and passenger benefits (proposed new rail service almost covers its operating costs), Economy: ++ so the intervention delivers a reasonable financial case. Intervention will also introduce new passenger services on a freight-only line

Access / Social Positive impact. Benefits will result from extended services to new passenger market at Levenmouth, particularly for households without ++ Inclusion: the use of a car to park & ride at Glenrothes with Thornton

Integration: 0 Neutral. Benefits will be largely neutral in the Fife area, with potential marginal benefits at Levenmouth. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Upgrade existing freight line between Alloa Reference: WED-P03 Intervention Details: and Dunfermline

Upgrade existing freight-only alignment between Alloa and Dunfermline to passenger standard (ED-I06). Introduction of new service Description would require the construction of Charlestown chord, to avoid trains reversing at Dunfermline (ED-I16).

Promoter Clackmannanshire Council

Source Arup internal

Capital Costs Requires a detailed study to assess the upgrade costs, given the current usage of the route for freight.

Operating Costs Estimated operating cost is £4.33m per annum, including an allowance of 41% for optimism bias Indicative Financial Impact: Revenue Will be dependent on the take-up of new housing in the Alloa area, and the continued buoyancy of the Edinburgh economy

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Not known

Background Information: The Alloa route via Dunfermline is presently served by freight-only route. Potential cessation of Longannet coal traffic from 2016 could Scheme Context: create an opportunity to deliver a passenger service on this route; a rail service would be a step-change in public transport quality compared with the lower cost bus alternative.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration in Fife and Edinburgh and encourages modal shift to more sustainable modes of transport. Objectives:

Plan-led growth could stimulate sufficient housing growth to create a significant commuting market into Edinburgh, this may be best Rationale for Short-listing: served by rail. Improved signalling between Haymarket and Inverkeithing would create sufficient capacity for additional trains into Edinburgh.

Implementability Appraisal: Would require improved line speeds via Longannet route to support a viable passenger service, passing loops to deliver extra capacity Technical: and construction of Charleston chord to avoid trains reversing at Dunfermline.

Timetabling of extra passenger services on the single track branch line, to ensure trains are able to cross on the passing loops. Operational: Signalling will need to be improved to support extra services across the Forth Bridge

It may be challenging to generate a robust financial case, due to the relatively low housing growth planned and dispersed patterns of Financial: demand for rail services.

Public: Intervention should receive reasonable financial support, given the new journey opportunities towards Fife and Edinburgh

Government's Objectives for Transport

Slight positive impact. New direct rail service will attract a small number of motorists from A947 and Kincardine Bridge, generating wider Environment: + environmental benefits.

Slight positive impact. New direct rail service will attract a small number of motorists from A947 and Kincardine Bridge, generating wider Safety: + safety benefits.

Neutral impact. Unlikely to generate strong benefits in terms of business case. Intervention would create new rail based journey Economy: 0 opportunities, but relatively low in-scope demand would make it difficult to produce a robust case.

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Compared with the lower cost bus service proposal, a new rail service will offer improved access to the wider rail + Inclusion: network with new journey opportunities.

Slight positive impact. It will be possible to integrate the rail services via Alloa with the remainder of the rail network more effectively than Integration: + a bus-based alternative Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Details: Extended hourly service from Dunblane to Perth Reference: WED-P04

Description Hourly Dunblane service extended to Perth serving a new station at Blackford, replacing the existing station at Gleneagles (ED-I13).

Promoter Central

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Capital Costs Construction costs for a new a station are £2-3m

Operating Costs Service extension to Perth incurs about £980,000 per annum (including an allowance of 41% for optimism bias) Indicative Financial Additional revenue would be unlikely to justify the cost of constructing a new station, or the additional operating costs of Impact: Revenue extending an hourly service to Perth

Third Party Funding None confirmed.

Cost to Public Sector None confirmed.

Background Information:

The existing station at Gleneagles is relatively poorly served with an infrequent irregular calling pattern. Significant housing growth planned at Blackford and Greenloaning could justify an alternative station served by a more regulae train service. Additional stops on Scheme Context: Aberdeen trains would conflict with objective to reduce journey times on these routes, so extending hourly Dunblane trains could provide better connectivity

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Will support plan-led growth and regeneration as well as improved integration with land use planning. Will also encourage more Objectives: sustainable modes of transport and provide competitive public transport links between the Central Belt and other Scottish cities.

Extension of Dunblane services to serve Blackford offers an opportunity to improve service frequency and connectivity between Rationale for Short-listing: Dunblane, Stirling and Perth.

Implementability Appraisal: No major issues to address, since the intervention assumes no additional capacity would be required to deliver the service Technical: improvements.

Timetabling of new stopping service to Perth. Intervention also requires 1 additional unit to be procured to operate the revised train Operational: diagrams. Services would need to be flighted to avoid the Aberdeen trains

Financial: New housing that could be served by the proposed station is very limited, so the financial case is unlikely to be robust.

Public support should be largely positive, since the small disbenefit for passengers using the existing Gleneagles station would be offset Public: by the improved train frequencies to Perth and Blackford.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Environment: + Slight positive impact. Improved rail service will attract drivers from the parallel A9 route delivering local environmental enhancements.

Safety: + Slight positive impact. Improved rail service will attract drivers from the parallel A9 route delivering local safety enhancements.

Slight negative impact. Although the intervention will deliver frequency improvements if the Gleneagles station is replaced by Blackford, Economy: - but intervention is unlikely to generate sufficient passengers to significantly constribute to the incremental operating costs

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Significantly improved service from Blackford may result in rail providing a convenient alternative to car use, + Inclusion: particularly for commuting.

Integration: + Slight positive impact. Significantly improved opportunity for rail-rail interchange at key destinations. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Introduce passenger services on the Edinburgh South Intervention Details: Reference: WED-P05 Suburban Line

Introduction of passenger services on the freight-only Edinburgh South Suburban Line (ED-I09). Consultants have examined the feasibility of extending trains that currently terminate at Waverley east via Portobello Junction to the ESSL, or diverting passenger Description services from Glasgow, Dunblane and Bathgate via the ESSL to offer new journey opportunities. Intervention could extend journey times for passengers if services are re-routed. Track doubling between Portobello Junction and Niddrie Junction

Promoter City of Edinburgh Council

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Consultants appointed by the City of Edinburgh Council reviewed the likely capital costs for the potential options, and ranged from £15m to £31m (excluding optimism bias). The capital costs do not take account of the rail services that would be Capital Costs prevented if the ESSL trains were introduced, for example, loss of capacity between Haymarket and Waverley, and the requirement for additional capacity via the through platforms.

The consultants examined a range of service options, with operating costs of £1m - £2.7m per annum (cost estimates exclude Operating Costs the 41% allowance for optimism bias) Indicative Financial A range of options were tested, with additional revenue from £0.3m per annum to £2.5m. However, the description of the Impact: Revenue modelling approach is relatively limited in the consultants report, and the assumptions to define the station catchments appear optimistic. The majority of the rail services proposed will require an additional subsidy of about £1m per annum.

Third Party Funding No funding source has been identified.

Cost will be £20m-£30m for the capital costs, plus about £1m per annum to meet the difference in farebox revenue and Cost to Public Sector operating costs

Background Information: ESSL is currently a freight-only route. There are no passenger services, and the former stations have become derelict. Although the Scheme Context: ESSL will create new journey opportunities, there are a number of conflicts with other passenger services, including Haymarket West Junction and platform availability at Waverley Station.

Planning Objectives:

Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration in Edinburgh, improve integration with land-use planning, foster social inclusion by offering Objectives: viable and affordable alternatives to the private car.

Intervention delivers new journey opportunities, and the lessons from Edinburgh Crossrail could enable a local passenger service to be Rationale for Short-listing: introduced.

Implementability Appraisal: Existing signalling capability needs to be upgraded, reinstatement of former stations including Gorgie, Morningside and Craigmillar, Technical: construction of additional platforms at Waverley to support the additional service patterns.

Proposed intervention is not consistent with "what is rail good at?", namely transporting significant number of passengers to major Operational: destinations over a reasonable distance. This intervention would require revisions to the existing timetable to incorporate the revised service patterns.

Other interventions could be developed that would deliver a stronger financial case (enhanced bus services, or a wholly new tram route Financial: to South East Edinburgh) than an orbital rail service for local journeys.

Although there is a public support for introducing passenger services via the ESSL, this support may weaken if the introduction of Public: passenger trains affected the reliability / journey times of existing inter-urban or commuter trains, or prevented new services being introduced due to capacity restrictions elsewhere on the network, notably at Edinburgh Waverley.

Government's Objectives for Transport Neutral impact. A new rail service could attract some car drivers achieving limited environmental benefits, although the journey length Environment: 0 may be relatively short.

Neutral impact. A new rail service could attract some car drivers reducing the number of accidents, although the journey length may be Safety: 0 relatively short.

Slight negative impact. Intervention will require about £1m subsidy per annum, and could prevent other rail services operating to / from Economy: - Edinburgh. There are alternative cost-effective solutions that could be introduced instead, for example, improved bus services or Tram Line 3 to improve connectivity to Edinburgh Waverley.

Access / Social 0 Neutral impact. Intervention would offer limited benefits to improve access to the rail network Inclusion:

Slight negative impact. Intervention could improve rail-rail integration at Haymarket and Waverley, although the relatively low frequencies Integration: - will be less attractive than a higher frequency bus service. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: South East Glasgow Reference: SEG-P01

New station at Ravenscraig (GSE-I01); Electrification of Whifflet line (GSE-I03), and extension of Whifflet services to Wishaw (GSE-I02); Description Junction improvements at Newton

Promoter SPT

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Construction for a new station are typically £2-3m depending on the station specification, and the estimated electrification Capital Costs costs from Glasgow Central and Wishaw via Whifflet are about £16m

The operating costs for extending the half hourly service from Whifflet is about £700,000 per annum (including a 41% Operating Costs allowance for optimism bias)

Indicative Financial The 3,500 new homes at Ravenscraig could generate about 30,000 trips per annum, or £66,000 revenue using a trip rate Impact: Revenue calculation (Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, and the average fare from Wishaw. Further work would be required to assess the potential additional demand from Wishaw to Whifflet.

Third Party Funding None confirmed, although may be potential for developer contribution.

Cost to Public Sector Electrification and additional operating costs

Background Information: There are proposals to build 3,500 new homes on the former site of the Ravenscraig steelworks, with 10,000 jobs created. The station would be served by just an hourly train between Glasgow Central and Lanark via Motherwell, and this is inadequate given the potential Scheme Context: trip generation. Trains would need to use the single lead junction at Newton, so there are performance benefits from improving this junction. If funding was more limited, existing diesel services from Whifflet could be extended to Wishaw to make the required improvement, although this would prevent the service enhancements to Shotts and Kilmarnock from being delivered.

Planning Objectives:

Links with the Planning 3,500 new homes are planned for Ravenscraig, and the improved services to south east Glasgow would provide the plan-led growth and Objectives: encourage sustainable patterns of travel movement.

Upgrade of the Whifflet line would support planning objectives and economic growth around Glasgow as well as providing a higher level Rationale for Short-listing: of network flexibility.

Implementability Appraisal: Line electrification and junction improvements required (Newton Junction specifically), as well as construction of a new station at Technical: Ravenscraig.

Electrification will mean that services on the Whifflet line can be operated via Glasgow Central Low Level station, and turn back at Operational: Anderston. This would deliver 3tph to serve the new station at Ravenscraig. The diversion of trains to Glasgow Central Low Level would free platform capacity at the High Level station to allow frequencies from Kilmarnock and Shotts to be increased.

New housing should increase demand, and allow a higher service frequency / new journey opportunities from other stations in south Financial: east Glasgow.

Public: Unlikely to encounter public opposition.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Positive impact. Line electrification from Glasgow Central to Wishaw via Whifflet will allow diesel units to be replaced, improving air Environment: ++ quality in south east Glasgow. Further environmental benefits will accrue if mode shift from car is encouraged by the improved service.

Slight positive impact. Improved rail service will offer an attractive alternative to driving, and help to control congestion and the number of Safety: + accidents on the main routes in south east Glasgow.

Positive impact. Service enhancements will reduce overcrowding and waiting time compared with the existing hourly frequency that Economy: ++ could serve Ravenscraig. Service quality would be enhanced, and journey times reduced by the introduction of electric units.

Access / Social Positive impact. A new station at Ravenscraig will provide good quality access to Glasgow city centre, particularly for households without ++ Inclusion: access to a car.

Integration: + Slight positive impact. Opportunity to structure bus routes to serve the new station. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Cathcart Circle Reference: SEG-P02 Conversion of Cathcart Circle and branch lines to Newton and Neilston to light rail with a new on-street alignment to serve Glasgow city Description centre (GSE-I07). Promoter WESTRANS, First ScotRail or other concessionaire to deliver

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Capital Costs Initial feasibility study prepared, but no assessment of costs prepared

Operating Costs Initial feasibility study prepared, but no assessment of costs prepared

Indicative Initial feasibility study prepared, but no assessment of demand / revenue prepared. Revenue could be increased by increasing Financial Revenue train frequencies, and serving new markets - notably the Castlemilk Estate. Impact:

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Not known

Background Information: The suburban Cathcart Circle network in Glasgow has a number of constraints, including platform availability at Glasgow Central, various flat junctions and signalling limitations that constraint potential opportunities to improve frequencies. Journey distances are Scheme Context: relatively short, and the routes are self-contained, allowing a potential conversion to light rail. Additional subsidy would also be required to support the service improvement

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Encourages social inclusion, use of sustainable modes of transport. Objectives:

A non-heavy rail solution may provide an affordable solution to enhance service quality and frequencies, given the various constraints Rationale for Short-listing: outlined above.

Implementability Appraisal:

Three services (Cathcart Circle, Newton and Neilston) would be converted to light rail, together with the construction of a new double Technical: track branch to the Castlemilk estate. A new alignment would be constructed to serve the Glasgow city centre, with the alignment diverging between Muirhouse South and Muirhouse North Junctions.

Proposal could remove up to 20 trains from Glasgow Central High Level terminus during the peak period, freeing up platform capacity for Operational: other service enhancements, including extra trains to Kilmarnock, and Edinburgh to Glasgow via Shotts. Frequencies could be improved due to more flexible signalling arrangements permitted for light rail.

Conversion to light rail could reduce the current financial subsidy required to support the existing heavy rail service. Patronage and Financial: revenue forecasts require careful consideration, given the shortfall that has affected other light rail schemes in the UK.

Light rail schemes are popular with the public, given the potential service quality improvements, frequency increases and scope to serve Public: new passenger markets, including the Castlemilk Estate.

Government's Objectives for Transport Slight positive impact. Since the higher frequencies, and improved service quality should attract car drivers. The modal shift should Environment: + deliver environmental benefits.

Slight positive impact. Since the higher frequencies, and improved service quality should attract car drivers. The modal shift should Safety: + deliver environmental benefits.

Positive impact. Additional frequencies will reduce wait times, and the alternative alignment into Glasgow city centre could reduce overall Economy: ++ journey times. Light rail system could also stimulate regeneration. Station improvements could deliver personal security benefits for passengers

Access / Social Positive impact. The Castlemilk estate has relatively low car ownership levels. The new light rail alignment would improve linkages to ++ Inclusion: Glasgow city centre, facilitating employment and other journey opportunities.

Integration: ++ Postive impact. The existing bus routes could be restructured to integrated with the light rail network Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table

Intervention Details: Glasgow North improvements Reference: NEG-P01

Platform lengthening at Bishopbriggs station to permit 6-car trains on the Stirling corridor to operate, introduction of an extra hourly Description service to Stirling from Glasgow Queen Street to support planned population and economic growth if the existing freight services to Longannet ceased (GN-I10), and the signalling headways in the Glasgow Queen Street High Level Tunnel were reduced (GN-I01).

Promoter WESTRANS, Network Rail

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Capital Costs Estimated cost for platform extension at Bishopbriggs is up to £1m (including an allowance for optimism bias)

Operating Costs £1.89m per annum to operate an additional hourly service between Stirling and Glasgow Queen Street

Indicative Financial Further work is needed to determine the interaction between demand on the Stirling corridor and improvements on the Revenue Impact: Cumbernauld route need to be quantified.

Third Party Funding None confirmed

£1m for the capital costs, plus the on-going subsidy if the additional service is introduced. Subsidy requirement will be affected Cost to Public Sector by the take-up of housing, and the resulting demand generated

Background Information:

Bishopbriggs Station is the only station on the Stirling to Glasgow Queen Street route unable to accommodate 6-car trains. This causes both a timetabling and capacity constraint for passengers, since trains can only be formed of a maximum of 5-cars. The Stirling corridor Scheme Context: has a relatively high load factor into Glasgow Queen Street, and the possible cessation of freight services to Longannet could generate sufficient spare capacity to operate an additional hourly service. The signalling headways approaching Queen Street station could also be reduced to improve line capacity by reducing the headway between trains

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration in Glasgow, foster social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private Objectives: car, shift to more sustainable modes of transport,

Although platform lengthening at Bishopbriggs is relatively complex given the proximity to signals and overbridge, this solution represents a cheaper alternative than Selective Door Opening (SDO). SDO would require modifications to a significant proportion of the Rationale for Short-listing: diesel fleet, and is therefore more costly. Additional Stirling service only assumed to be operationally viable if Longannet coal trains cease post 2016.

Implementability Appraisal: Platform lengthening at Bishopbriggs is relatively difficult, given the proximity to adjacent signals and overbridges at both ends of the Technical: station. Additional signalling on the approach to Queen Street Station will require possessions to implement, this is likely to result in inter- urban services terminating short of Glasgow Queen Street at weekends.

Possible cessation of coal services to Longannet from 2016 and proposed introduction of additional services to Stirling will need to be Operational: incorporated into the timetable. The introduction of additional signalling in the Queen Street High Level Tunnel could also generate scope to revise existing timetabling of services to enhance timetable resiliency.

Intervention could generate a reasonable financial case, given that platform lengthening at Bishopbriggs represents a more cost- Financial: effective solution than SDO. Furthermore, the additional capacity achieved by improving the signalling headways will improve line capacity, and reduce delays through better performance

Intervention could receive public support if additional capacity was introduced, particularly benefiting commuters. Furthermore, the Public: planned housing growth for the Stirling corridor will mean the extra hourly service proposed could attractive sufficient patronage to make it viable

Government's Objectives for Transport

Slight positive impact. Train capacities on the Bishopbriggs route will be increased by 20%, whilst the additional services to / from Stirling Environment: + will help to attract motorists from the congested A80 corridor, delivering wider environmental benefits

Slight positive impact. Train capacities on the Bishopbriggs route will be increased by 20%, whilst the additional services to / from Stirling Safety: + will help to attract motorists from the congested A80 corridor, reducing the number of accidents

Positive impact. Intervention makes better use of existing line capacity by platform lengthening, but improved signalling between Economy: ++ Cowlairs and Glasgow Queen Street will enhance reliability.

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Additional train frequencies to Stirling will offer a minor improvement in delivering better access to the network, + Inclusion: particularly for households without access to a car.

Integration: 0 Neutral impact. Additional train frquencies will offer neglible benefits for improved integration Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Service enhancements for the Cumbernauld route, and Intervention Details: Reference: NEG-P02 improved frequencies to Stirling

Electrification of the Cumbernauld line to Falkirk Grahamston (GN-I02, EG-I10). Intervention includes construction of a new park & ride at Castle Cary / Allandale (GN-I03) and construction of a new connection at Garngad to provide a connection from the Stepps route to the Bellgrove route, and junction improvements at Bellgrove to increase capacity given the additional train movements. Services could operate to stations on the North Electrics network creating new journey opportunities from north west Glasgow to north east Glasgow. Description Diversion of 2tph between Cumbernauld and Glasgow Queen Street could create additional capacity to introduce an extra hourly service to / from Stirling, regardless of the future of Longannet freight flows, although signalling headways approaching Queen Street may need to be improved (GN-I01). Services from the Cumbernauld route could be extended on to the North Electrics network, allowing the Airdrie- Bathgate services to be terminated at central Glasgow, improving timetable resiliency

Promoter Falkirk Council, SESTRAN, WESTRANS, First ScotRail to implement

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Capital costs for the new park and ride station at Allandale are taken from a feasibility study undertaken by Jacobs Babtie and Capital Costs Corus Rail Infrastructure Services. Depending on the specification of the station, indicative capital costs for the scheme are £17.9m - £21.7m, including an allowance of 66% for optimism bias

Scheme promoter has calculated indicative operating costs costs for the scheme are £x.xm, including an allowance of 41% for Operating Costs optimism bias

Indicative Financial The A80-M80 corridor study appraised several options including new stations at Allandale (Castle Cary). The indicative financial appraisal for the park & ride sites appear to have merits, it will be important to assess the business case for these Impact: Revenue proposals with the possible electrification of the Cumbernauld line, and the subsequent extension of trains onto the North Electrics route. The potential overlap with the park & ride station at Bannockburn was also assessed.

Third Party Funding None confirmed yet

Cost to Public Sector To be confirmed

Background Information: Existing services from Glasgow Queen Street operate half-hourly to Cumbernauld, with an hourly service extended to / from Falkirk Grahamston. However, the relatively slow journey times mean the Cumbernauld line is relatively under-used, and the lack of onward Scheme Context: journey opportunities from Queen Street. Line electrification will improve service quality. Potential improvements to the Cumbernauld Line were identified in the Central Scotland Capacity Study (A80 corridor study) to alleviate the Croy route and create an additional route into central Glasgow. Further study commissioned by Falkirk Council.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration in Glasgow, foster social inclusion by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private Objectives: car, shift to more sustainable modes of transport,

Intervention will deliver a step-change in service quality for the Cumbernauld route, and alleviate over-crowding problems between Croy Rationale for Short-listing: and Glasgow.

Implementability Appraisal:

Overhead line electrification to Cumbernauld / Falkirk Grahamston, construction of a new connection at Garngad, junction improvements Technical: at Bellgrove, construction of a new park & ride station at Allandale (Castle Cary).

Revised timetable will be required to incorporate the higher train frequencies from Cumbernauld / Falkirk Grahamston. Timetabling solution will need to take account of train frequencies west of Bellgrove towards Charing Cross from Airdrie-Bathgate. There may also be Operational: an opportunity to operate these trains onto the North Electric route if the Airdrie-Bathgate services are revised to operate to / from central Glasgow, rather than Helensburgh / Balloch. Services via Croy will also need to be re-timetabled if additional trains to Stirling are introduced, given the re-routing of the Cumbernauld services via Queen Street Low Level station

Intervention should generate a reasonable financial case, given the potential displacement of trips from Croy, and the additional trips that could be attracted by the proposed park & ride at Allandale, attracting journeys from the M80. Direct services to stations on the North Financial: Electrics network could also generate new demand, given the cross-Glasgow journey opportunities. Extra hourly trains to Stirling could also generate new revenue, given the relatively high current load factors, and the forecast housing and employment growth planned for the route

Intervention should attract strong public support, given the improved frequencies and journey opportunities achieved by these Public: enhancements. Service quality will also improve, following the introduction of modern electric units to replace the existing diesel stock on the Cumbernauld route

Government's Objectives for Transport Positive impact. Intervention will deliver improved capacity, frequency and service quality for the A80 corridor, and attract motorists given Environment: ++ the forecast population and employment growth, delivering wider environmental benefits

Positive impact. Intervention will deliver improved capacity, frequency and service quality for the A80 corridor, and attract motorists given Safety: ++ the forecast population and employment growth, delivering accident savings

Positive impact. Several potential travel markets identified that could be served by an enhanced service to Cumbernauld / Falkirk, by improving train frequencies. Furthermore, addtional trains could also support the planned population and employment growth affecting Economy: ++ the Stirling corridor that will reduce crowding levels on the route. Intervention may also deliver benefits for cross-Glasgow trips, without requiring the infrastructure costs likely if Glasgow Crossrail is delivered. Line electrification will allow improved rolling stock quality to be introduced, with scope for faster journey times, given the better access to a wider range of destinations in Glasgow city centre.

Access / Social Positive impact. Enhanced rail service to the Cumbernauld line will improve access to the rail network, particularly if the Allandale park & ++ Inclusion: ride is constructed

Positive impact. Intervention will improve the opportunities for direct rail journeys to a number of stations in central Glasgow, but also Integration: ++ encourage rail-rail interchange at stations including Bellgrove Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Improved connectivity to North Berwick and Reference: EED-P01 Dunbar

Description Express bus link to Edinburgh from North Berwick (ED-I14); Innovative rail/taxi ticketing scheme at Dunbar station

Promoter SE, First ScotRail and local taxi operators to deliver.

Source Arup internal

Capital Costs None

Operating Costs Additional operating costs for a bus shuttle is £210,000 per annum between North Berwick and Edinburgh

Possible bus journey time is likely to be significantly slower than the rail service to the benefits of the additional frequency to 'in- Indicative fill' the rail frequency and develop a larger public transport market is likely to be very small. Traffic congestion in Edinburgh is Revenue Financial unlikely to make the possible journey time by express bus competitive. Funding support would be required for the Dunbar taxi- Impact: rail system to make the fare structure more affordable

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Not relevant. The bus offers a significantly slower journey time than rail, so the bus-based intervention should not be Cost to Public Sector recommended

Background Information: There are currently 2tph operating to / from North Berwick during the peak periods and on Saturdays, although this frequency reduces to 1tph during the off-peak periods on weekdays since the freight flows to / from Cockenzie mean there is insufficient capacity to operate higher frequencies. An hourly service to North Berwick is not car competitive, so the introduction of an express bus link would help to develop the public transport market without requiring significant capital investment. Dunbar is the principal hub for the ECML in East Scheme Context: Lothian, although the population densities are too low to support 'conventional' bus feeder services, so an alternative innovative approach may be required to improve connectivity to the station for households without access to a car. Although the express bus feeder would serve 500 new homes planned for North Berwick, the proposed buses would not servbe the new homes planned at Haddington or Blindwells

Planning Objectives:

Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration in Edinburgh and Lothian, improve integration with land-use planning, foster social inclusion Objectives: by offering viable and affordable alternatives to the private car.

This is a lower cost alternative for developing a public transport market between North Berwick and Edinburgh, rather than a rail based Rationale for Short-listing: solution. The innovative taxis reflects the low population densities in East Lothian that restrict the suitability of bus-based alternatives. Case study examples from Austria have demonstrated that such schemes could be effective.

Implementability Appraisal: Technical: No technical issues foreseen

Bus services should be timed to be given even departures to / from North Berwick compared with the existing hourly rail service. Bus Operational: services will be unable to compete with the rail service in terms of journey time.

Relatively low cost, but the lengthy journey times compared with the rail will limit the attractiveness of the service. Additional 500 new Financial: homes planned for North Berwick could help build the case for additional public transport frequency on the corridor

Public: Unlikely to encounter public opposition.

Government's Objectives for Transport Neutral impact. Transfer from car to bus or rail given the combined public transport frequency is likely to generate very small Environment: 0 environmental benefits

Neutral impact. Transfer from car to bus or rail given the combined public transport frequency is likely to generate very small accident Safety: 0 savings by relieving traffic on the A198 / A1.

Slight positive impact. Intervention will improve public transport frequencies between North Berwick and Edinburgh, and complement the Economy: + existing local bus services connecting the intermediate towns. Intervention is unlikely to deliver any crowding benefits or improve service quality.

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Allows passengers from a relatively rural area better access to the rail network at Dunbar, particularly households + Inclusion: without access to a car. This will facilitate improved journey opportunities to key destinations including Edinburgh

Slight positive impact. Bus services should compliment the existing train timetable, although it may be very difficult to achieve acceptable Integration: + journey times, given traffic congestion in Greater Edinburgh, even during the off-peak. Taxi/rail pricing scheme will encourage wider access to the rail network in a largely rural area. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: East of Edinburgh Reference: EED-P02

2tph to North Berwick (ED-I11); Platform revisions at Dunbar (AS-I05); modify stopping pattern of Virgin CrossCountry trains to call Description additionally at Dunbar, passing loop west of Drem, and track doubling between Portobello Junction and Niddrie Junction

Promoter SESTRAN to deliver, Virgin CrossCountry, First ScotRail

Source Stakeholders aspiration

Capital Costs Capital costs for reinstating a platform at Dunbar is up to £10m, including an allowance of 66% for optimism bias.

Additional station access costs incurred for extra stops at Dunbar are modest, £2.35m for an additional service to North Operating Costs Berwick Indicative Financial Services to Dunbar were improved in the June 2005 timetable to a regular two-hourly daytime service. However, the benefits of Impact: Revenue this service improvement have yet to be fully reflected in the LENNON ticket data. Further work to determine the likely change in demand resulting from the service improvements would be required.

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Infrastructure and operating costs

Background Information: Currently, 1tph operates to North Berwick to Edinbrugh off peak on weekdays. Furthermore, the bus based solution is unlikely to generate sufficient demand, given the relatively slow journey times. There is only a single platform at Dunbar, so Down trains (towards Edinburgh) must cross the Up Line (trains towards Berwick-upon-Tweed and London) to reach the platform. This is not a significant Scheme Context: operational constraint, since trains only call at Dunbar every 2 hours outside the peak period. The East Coast Main Line west of Drem towards Edinburgh is twin track but without passing loops. Consequently, there is potential for significant delays if a late running intercity service is pathed behind a stopping service operated by First ScotRail, given the disparity of about 15 minutes between the journey times for stopping and express services.

Links with the Planning Supports plan-led growth and regeneration in Edinburgh and the Lothians. The improved service from Dunbar would support cross- Objectives: border links

Intervention will provide a more frequent service between North Berwick and Edinburgh and support the 500 new homes planned for North Berwick, and 750 new homes at Haddington. Intervention will also deliver a step change in service quality with an hourly service to / from Dunbar, helping to establish this station as the key gateway to the intercity network in East Lothian, given the 500 new homes Rationale for Short-listing: planned. Passing loops west of Drem will improve timetable flexibility, particularly given the constraints on the North Berwick branch line, or if the coal traffic to Cockenzie continues beyond 2016. This interventions represent relatively small schemes to benefit a crucial Anglo- Scottish route.

Implementability Appraisal: Intervention will require the construction of a second platform on the Up line at Dunbar, and passing loop west of Drem. Both Technical: interventions will require possessions to complete.

ECML timetable needs to be revised to accommodate the additional dwell time at Dunbar. Revisions should not cause any particular Operational: conflicts, since there is a reasonable gap between the express services. However, services to / from North Berwick could arrive immediately prior to an express service, so additional passing loop(s) west of Drem would improve timetable flexibility.

Additional stops using existing trains likely to deliver better Value for Money than a dedicated service. Intervention will deliver a step- Financial: change in adequacy of rail service for both North Berwick and Dunbar.

Public: Unlikely to encounter public opposition.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Neutral impact. 2tph between North Berwick and Edinburgh, and 1tph between Dunbar and Edinburgh will deliver a more adequate level Environment: 0 of service, this will begin to encourage reasonable levels of modal shift with attendant environmental benefits.

Safety: 0 Neutral impact. Mode switch is encouraged from the A1 to the (relatively safe) rail, although the benefits are likely to be small scale

Positive impact. more frequent intercity links will reduce wait time at Dunbar, cutting overall journey times. Intervention should also Economy: ++ improve punctuality and reliability.

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Better services to relatively rural parts of East Lothian will deliver convenient rail connections to Edinburgh and + Inclusion: the wider rail network.

Integration: 0 Neutral impact. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Rural North Reference: RN-P01

Introduce franchised coaches with inter-available tickets (RRN-I05); Apply 'low cost, innovative revenue' solution (RRN-I06); Improve Description interchange facilities at Inverness for connection to Far North line

Promoter HITRANS, First ScotRail

Source Stakeholder aspirations

Capital Costs Negligible

Operating Costs Negligible, services would be operated by existing commercial operators.

Indicative Additional revenue generated would be shared between First ScotRail and the existing coach operator(s). Other solutions to Financial Revenue boost patronage on the Far North Lines must be self-funding Impact:

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector None

Background Information: The Far North Line is predominantly rural, and has a limited number of daily services - 3 trains per day to Wick / Thurso and the Kyle of Lochalsh (an extra service per day operates in each direction during the summer), plus a further 2 hourly service to Tain / Invergordon from December 2005 (Invernet Phase 1). Connection times at Inverness from the Highland Main Line can be relatively long due to the Scheme Context: infrequent services. There are a number of freight movements using the route, with aspirations to further grow the freight market. However, these freight aspirations could affect the feasibility of reducing maintenance requirements given the existing and current freight flows

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Enhanced rail services will improve rural transport, encourage social inclusion and could reduce the subsidy requirement for the routes. Objectives:

The proposed interventions will help to develop the public transport market in the Far North, without requiring expensive infrastructure Rationale for Short-listing: solutions to boost revenue

Implementability Appraisal: Technical: No technical difficulties with this intervention

Franchised coaches must be operated as a complementary, rather than competitive manner to develop the public transport market. Operational: Other proposed improvements to the Highland Main Line will improve interchange at Inverness by reducing wait time

Financial: Relatively low cost option should perform adequately in financial terms.

Public: Intervention is likely to attract reasonable support

Government's Objectives for Transport

Environment: 0 Neutral impact. Any resultant mode switch to public transport is unlikely to deliver a tangible environmental benefits

Safety: 0 Neutral impact. Any resultant mode switch to public transport is unlikely to deliver a significant reduction in accidents

Slight positive impact. Improved public transport frequency will reduce wait times for passengers, and could reduce the financial support Economy: + needed for the Far North routes. Punctuality, rolling stock quality, and station facilities are likely to be unchanged

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Improved public transport frequency will support the social inclusion objectives by delivering better links to the + Inclusion: employment and leisure opportunities at Inverness, with interchange for other destinations

Positive impact. Developing an integrated bus/ rail timetable will maximise the travel frequency benefits for passengers, particularly if the Integration: ++ initiative is supported by an integrated ticketing Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Rural North Reference: RN-P02

Description Increase network capacity for additional passenger and freight services (RRN-I02, RRN-I07, RRN-I08)

Promoter HITRANS, First ScotRail

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Capital Costs Capital costs will be dependent on the specific capacity measures identified

Operating Costs Incremental operating costs will be dependent on the additional services (either freight or passengers) to be proposed Indicative Financial Revenue Incremental operating costs will be dependent on the additional services to be proposed Impact: Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Not known

Background Information:

The Far North Line is predominantly rural, and has a limited number of daily services - 3 trains per day to Wick / Thurso and the Kyle of Lochalsh, plus a further 2 hourly service to Tain / Invergordon from December 2005 (Invernet Phase 1). There is significant housing and Scheme Context: economic growth forecast for Inverness and the Highlands, plus aspirations for additional freight traffic. The existing single track alignment could restrict the implementation of these proposals, due to insufficient capacity to provide additional rail services.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Additional network capacity will support the plan-led growth in the Highlands, encourage sustainable transport patterns, and reduce the Objectives: environmental impact of transport

Engineering solution to upgrade existing capacity constraints will provide a significant step-change in rail capacity to support aspirations Rationale for Short-listing: for additional passenger and freight services. A separate study commissioned by the Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE) is examining the potential infrastructure requirements in more detail for both passenger and freight.

Implementability Appraisal:

Technical: Track and signalling upgrades may be required to boost capacity to support new passenger and freight movements.

Operational: Retimetabling exercise would be required to maximise capacity following delivery of the new infrastructure.

Possible new port at Cromarty, or the proposed biomass plan would support the business case for additional line capacity to be created. Financial: Invernet phase 1 will deliver a step change in rail frequency benefiting stations between Tain and Inverness,, which may be sufficient to support housing and economic growth

Public: Unlikely to face public opposition

Government's Objectives for Transport Positive impact. Intervention could remove a significant number of lorry movements from the A9 corridor south of Inverness, delivering Environment: ++ environmental benefits.

Positive impact. Intervention could remove a significant number of lorry movements from the A9 corridor south of Inverness, reducing the Safety: ++ number of accidents.

Positive impact. Additional capacity for freight movements, and to a lesser extent passenger services will help support wider economic Economy: ++ growth

Access / Social 0 Neutral impact. The intervention does not include proposals for new stations Inclusion:

Integration: 0 Neutral impact. The intervention does not include specific proposals to improve bus / rail connectivity Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Strategic Journey Time Improvements for the Reference: RN-P03 Far North Line

Improvements to the end-to-end journey times between Wick / Thurso and Inverness to reduce the peripherality between the Far North Description of Scotland and Inverness (RRN-I03,).

Promoter HITRANS

Source Stakeholders aspiration

Consultants examining this proposal have included an allowance of £40-50m for line speed improvements to permit 90- Capital Costs 100mph operation. Estimated capital costs do not include an allowance for the new connection at Georgemas, a new station at Halkirk, or the proposed crossing at Dornoch Operating Costs No operating costs prepared yet Indicative Financial Estimate of revenues yet to be prepared, but overall road and rail travel market between Inverness and Wick / Thurso is Revenue Impact: relatively small.

Third Party Funding None confirmed yet

Cost to Public Sector Significant, given the line speed improvements and construction of a new crossing over Dornoch Firth

Background Information: Demand for rail in the Highlands increased significantly, including a 50% increase on the Far North Line, 40% on the Kyle line, 35% on the Highland Main Line and 20% on the West Highland Line (source: 'The Case for Rail in the Highlands and Islands'). Rail also plays a Scheme Context: key role encouraging social inclusion (for example, 40% of passengers using the route did not have access to a car), whilst rail generates about £20m of environmental benefits (over a 30 year appraisal period) by removing cars from the road, and almost £50m of freight benefits. However, journey times from Inverness to Wick / Thurso are significantly slower than the car or even bus alternative.

Links with the Planning Intervention will foster social inclusion, deliver a shift towards more sustainable modes, reduce the harmful environmental impact of Objectives: travel, and promoting tourism.

Small scale interventions, for example, skip-stop calling pattern, are unlikely to deliver journey time benefits since they conflict with wider Rationale for Short-listing: social inclusion issues. Any reduction in service frequency would not support the wider social inclusion objective given existing frequencies are already relatively low.

Implementability Appraisal:

Construction of a wholly new alignment via the Dornoch Firth is a major infrastructure scheme, whilst the line speed improvements will Technical: cause disruption to existing services during the programme of upgrades

It is proposed a limited stop service would operate calling at the principal stations only, to deliver a journey time of about 2 hours Operational: between Inverness and Wick. A slower, less frequent service would also operate between Lairg and Inverness. A detailed timetabling study will therefore be required to incorporate these changes, and accommodate aspirations for freight growth.

Passenger demand forecasts have yet to be prepared, but the potential in-scope demand is relatively small. There are only 100 passengers per day in each direction north of Tain towards Thurso / Wick. The Transport Model for Scotland highway matrices also Financial: indicate the number of longer distance road trips is relatively small, so it is difficult to identify how a robust business case could be developed for the proposal

Overall, the intervention would receive strong public support, particularly from residents / businesses located in the Far North, although Public: the population catchment near Lairg would be disadvantaged by the proposals

Government's Objectives for Transport

Slight positive impact. Significantly faster journey times should encourage a small number of motorists to switch from the A9, delivering Environment: + environmental impacts.

Neutral impact. Faster journey times should encourage motorists to switch from the A9, having a negligible impact on the number of Safety: 0 accidents on the A9. Intervention will have no material impact on the levels of personal safety.

Negative impact. The intervention will deliver a step-change in rail service between Inverness and Wick / Thurso in terms of frequencies and journey times. The financial cost of delivering these improvements will be significant, given the existing subsidies needed to Economy: -- financially support this route. Furthermore, the wider economic benefits are unlikely to cover the substantial capital costs needed to deliver the additional infrastructure

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Benefits from the improved rail journey times for Wick / Thurso should be sufficient to offset the disbenefits for + Inclusion: residents / businesses from Lairg

Integration: 0 Neutral impact Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: Main Anglo-Scottish Routes Reference: ANS-P01

Description Hourly service to Lockerbie with improved modal interchange (AS-I04). Revised track layout at Carstairs

Promoter Dumfries & Galloway Council , Virgin CrossCountry to deliver

Source Stakeholder aspirations

Capital Costs Negligible, interchange improvements could be funded by the Local Transport Strategy

Negligible change in operating costs, since existing stopping patterns would be revised to call more frequently at Carstairs and Operating Costs Lockerbie Indicative Financial Regular service from Lockerbie would mean station is established as a gateway for Dumfries & Galloway. Further work to Revenue Impact: model demand given the potential step-change in service quality would be required.

Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Small

Background Information: At present, Virgin CrossCountry services call at Lockerbie, with trains calling every 1-2 hours. Timings are more convenient for Scheme Context: northbound journeys than southbound trips towards Carlisle. Potential to establish Lockerbie as an intercity gateway station for Dumfries & Galloway.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning Intervention would improve access to the rail network, particularly for cross-border flows, and journeys to Glasgow / Edinburgh. Objectives:

Rationale for Short-listing: Intervention does not require additional services to deliver objectives, so it forms a relatively low cost intervention

Implementability Appraisal: Technical: No issues foreseen

Would require additional dwell time at Lockerbie to be included in the timetable. The additional stops will lead to a small journey time Operational: increase on VXC, although these increases will generally affect leisure passengers, who are usually less time-sensitive.

Intervention could generate additional revenue, particularly if Lockerbie is developed as a gateway station for Dumfries & Galloway, with Financial: a regular hourly service offering both cross-border trips, and journeys to Glasgow and Edinburgh

Public: Improved local rail services could offset reduced long distance journey times.

Government's Objectives for Transport

Slight positive impact. Development of a public transport interchange served by regular intercity trains could deliver significant Environment: + environmental benefits, by encouraging car drivers currently using the A74(M) / M6 corridor to switch to rail.

Slight positive impact. Development of a public transport interchange served by regular intercity trains could reduce the number of Safety: + accidents by encouraging car drivers currently using the A74(M) / M6 corridor to switch to rail.

Slight positive impact. Improved rail service from Lockerbie will significantly reduce wait time, and reduce the requirement to park & ride Economy: + to Motherwell and Carlisle.

Access / Social Slight positive impact. Improved frequency will offer local passengers a significantly better rail service to employment and leisure + Inclusion: opportunities in Glasgow, Edinburgh and major cities in northern England.

Integration: ++ Positive impact. Rail frequency improvements can be supported by additional car parking and extra bus feeder services from Dumfries. Scotland Planning Assessment - Appraisal Summary Table Intervention Package: ECML Journey Times Reference: ANS-P02

Improved ECML journey times, offering more services between Edinburgh and London in 4.5 hours or less (AS-I08). Better yield Description management on CrossCountry services (AS-I06)

Promoter SESTRAN, delivered by GNER

Source Stakeholder aspiration

Capital Costs Further work is needed to determine whether current capacity could facilitate faster journey times

Operating Costs Negligible Indicative Not calculated - intervention would require a detailed business case including the perception of air passengers to the faster Financial Revenue journey times Impact: Third Party Funding None confirmed

Cost to Public Sector Not known

Background Information: There is an aspiration to reduce journey times on the ECML to allow rail to compete with air more effectively. Stops at the smaller intermediate stations would be replaced, and served by other trains, for example, Virgin CrossCountry or the Newcastle - London GNER Scheme Context: service. In particular, journey time reductions would improve connectivity to principal destinations served by the ECML. Such a timetable is unlikely to be delivered until the changes affecting services between Yorkshire and London are delivered, which could facilitate a standardised timetable to the North East and Scotland from London.

Planning Objectives: Links with the Planning The intervention would strengthen cross-border links, improve integration between transport services and modes, and encourage a shift Objectives: to more sustainable modes of transport

Journey time savings could allow long disance ECML journeys to compete more effectively with air services, particularly if delivered in Rationale for Short-listing: conjunction with other service quality improvements. The current stopping pattern is largely reflects the higher volume of passengers using GNER closer to London.

Implementability Appraisal:

Technical: Infrastructure constraints would prevent the introduction of a standard calling pattern, and faster journey times to Edinburgh

A detailed retimetabling exercise would be required. Although Virgin CrossCountry services could call additionally at Dunbar to improve Operational: existing service frequencies, these trains would need to be timed carefully to minimise the interchange penalty at Newcastle to maintain attractive journey times for London passengers.

The high number of business passengers on the ECML, particularly on medium distance journeys is significant, given the relatively high Financial: passenger yield. Reduced journey times would improve the competitive position of rail compared with domestic air services, particularly if the journey time enhancements were supported by improvements to service quality

Intervention may generate some local opposition to the revised stopping patterns, particularly from the smaller intermediate stations. Public: However, this impact could be mitigated by improving the frequency of VXC services from these stations and carefully timetabling services to provide convenient interchange with GNER services at Newcastle.

Government's Objectives for Transport Neutral impact. Any resulting modal shift from air to rail is unlikely to reduce the frequency of air between Edinburgh and London, hence Environment: 0 the environmental benefits are likely to be negligible.

Neutral impact. Any resulting modal shift from air to rail is unlikely to reduce the frequency of air between Edinburgh and London, hence Safety: 0 the reduction in accidents is likely to be negligible

Positive impact. Faster journey times to northern England, the East Midlands and London will help to reinforce the strong economic Economy: ++ performance of Edinburgh, and strengthen its status as financial, administrative and legal centre.

Access / Social 0 Neutral impact Inclusion:

Integration: 0 Neutral impact ISBN 1 906006 06 7 (web only publication)