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Draft Redacted Version OG&E ENERGY INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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Draft Redacted Version OG&E ENERGY INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN Draft Redacted Version OG&E EN ERGY INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN Draft Date: September 1, 2006 Prepared by: OGE Energy Corp 321 N Harvey Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 73102 Contact: Leon Howell, Manager Resource Plann ing 405-553-3296 OGlE' Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..... ............................................. ... .. .......................................... .. ......... ......... .. ... i 1. INTRODU CTION......................................... ......... .. .. .............................................. .. ......... ....... .... 1-1 It. LOAD FORECAST AND CALCULATION OF CAPACITY NEEDS ................................... II-I A . OG& E 'S SERV[CE TERttITdiZY . .•••• 11-1 B . ECONOMIC OUTLOOK . 11- 2 1. Oklah oma Economic Otrdlaak. .. .. .... .. .. .. ...... .. ..... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 11-3 2. Arkansas Eco nomi c Oudlook . .. .. .. .. ........ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 11-4 C. FORECAST QF ENERGY SALES AND PEAK DEMA N D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ...................... .. .. .. .. ..... .. .. ..... .. 11-4 1. Energy Sales Farecast.. .. .. .. .. ... .. ........... .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. ......... ........ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 11-5 2. PeakDemarrd Forec ast . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. ... .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. IC-5 a. Peak Demand Forecasting Methodology . ... ........ ........ .. ....... .... ... ... ..... ... ..... ... ........ ... .... ... ........ .. ......... II-5 b. Forecastin g Peak Loads............ ........ ........ ... .... ... ........ ... ... ... ........ .... .... ... .... ... ........ .... .... ... ...... ... ....... .. 11-7 c. Exp ected Loads by Weath er Probability... ....... ... .... .... ... ... ... ........ ........ .... ... .... ....... ........ .. ..... ... ... ....... 11-8 d. Total Peak D emand , Including Wholesale Contracts. ... ....... .... ... .... .... ... ........ ........ .... ... ... ....... ... ....... .. 11-9 3. Low and High-Growth Cases . .. .. .. ... .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .11-10 D . CALCUL.AT[ONOFCAPACITYNEEDS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .......... .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. ...11-1 2 1. Required Reserv e Margins ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .... ...... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ............ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .C1-12 2. Base Case - Capaciry Margins .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..l1-I3 3. Low and High-Growth Cases . .. .. .. .. .. .. .... ...... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .11-1 4 liI . OG&E'S RESOU RCE YORTFOLfO AND REGULATO RY 1 LEGISLATIVE DRrVERSI fI-l A . EXISTING GENERATION AND DSM RESOURCES .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..... .. .. .. ........... .. .. ... .. .. .. ... IlI-1 1. Retirement ofGeneration Facilities .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 111-5 2. Enid Improvements.. .. .. ........... ..... .. .. .. .. ... ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 111-5 3. Qualifying Fa cilities Purchase Pow er Cvrrtracts .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ...... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. III-5 4. Wind Generation . .. .. .. .. ........ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ............ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. I11-5 5. Existing DSM.. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... ..... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. ........... .. ..... .. III-6 B . COAL AND NATURAL GAS SUPPL[ES . .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. ..... ............. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. ..... .. 111-6 I , Coal Supply and Transportation . .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. ... ........ .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....... .. .. .. .. 111-7 2. Natural Gas Supply and TrnnsportAtion ........ .. .... .. ... .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .... .... .. ....... .. 111- 7 C . TRANSMISSION CAPABILII'IES A N D EXPANSION PLANS ........... .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... ....... .. I[I-8 1 . Current Tran smission System .4dequacy .. .. .. ... .. .. .. ............. .. .. ...111-9. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..... .. .. ... .. Z SPP Regional Transmission Organfzation (RTO) Expansion Plan s . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. 111-9 a. Reliability Upgrades ... ... ..... ... .... .... ... ..... ... ... ........ ....... ... ........ ... ..... ... .... ... ........ ........ ... ... .... ....... .. ....... I1 1-4 b. Economic Upgrades ... ... .... ... ..... .... .... ... ........ ........ ... ....... ....... ... ..... ... ........ ........ ... ... .. .. .... .... ... ...... ... .. iTI-1 0 3. FERC Transmission Considerations for Incremental Generation .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. ....... .. .... .. ... I1I-11 D . SPP AND REG10iVAL E LECTRICITY MARKETS . .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..... .. ..... I1I-12 1. SPP Overview .. .. .. .. .. .. ............ .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .......... .... ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....... .. .. ... 1II-1 2 Z. SPP Murkei Demnnd, Supply, and Pricss .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. ..... .. .. .......... III-14 3. New SPP Market Services ...... .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. ........... ....... 111-17 4. Transmission Service and System Expans ian .. ........ .. ....... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... ....... .. ..... I11-19 E. REGULATORY AND LEGISLATIVE DA3VER5 .. .. .. ... .. ...... .. .. ....... .. .. ...... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. ... .. .. III- 23 1 . State Utili ty Commissiorts....... .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....... .. .. ....... 11I-24 2. FER C . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ......... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. ........ .. .. ... .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... ....... III-14 3. NERC. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .......... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. _................. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. ....... .....III-24 4. EPACT 2005 . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ...... .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ... .. .. ..... .. ......... ... 111-25 5. Environmental Regulatiort ...... .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ............. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ... .. .... .. ........... 111-2 5 a. Sulfur Dioxide .. .. ........ ... ... .... .... .... ....... ........ .......... .... ... ... ............... ... .... .... ........ ... ... ... ........ ... ....... ... III-26 b. Nitrogen Dioxide ... ... ... ........ ........ ........ ........ ... .... ... ........ ... ....... ........ ... ... .... ........ ........ ... ... ... .... ...... ... III-26 a ODEQ Permitting . ....... .... .... ........ ........ .................. .......... .................................. .............................. 111-27 d. Mercu ry . ... ...... .... .. ....... ........ ........ ........ .... .... ... ....... ........ ... ....... ... .... ... .... .... ........ ....... ... ....... ... ....... .. 111-27 e. Ambient Ozone, Fine Particulates and Visibifi ty ... ....... ... ........ ....... .... ... .... ........ ........ ... ...... .... ...... ... II[-27 f. Carbon Dioxide .. .. ....... .... .... ... ..... .... .... ... ....... ........ ... ....... ....... ... .... .... ........ ...... .... .... ... ....... ... .... ... ... II 1-28 g. Water ..... ... ...... .... ... ... ... ........ ........ ........ .... ... .... ....... .... ... ... ........ ... ... .... .... .... ........ ... ... ... ........ ... ....... .. 111-29 IV. ANA LYSIS OF OG&E'S RESOURCE OPTIONS ....................................... .. .... ..................... 1V-1 Page i 9/1/2006 Table of Contents A. MODELING APPROACH AND INPUTS . ............ .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ...... .. .. .. ...... .. .. .. .. ..... .. .. .. IV-1 1. Specication of Resource Alt ernatives . .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ........ .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. I V-2 a. Resources Evaluated Using CEM and PAR ... ... .... ... ....... ... ....... .. ........ ........ ........ .................. ... ....... ..IV-3 b. Model Input Assumptions. .... ... ....... ........ ........ .... ... ... ....... ... ....... ... ....... ........ ........ ........ .... ... ... ........ .... 1V-4 c. Transmission Cost As sumpti ons.. ... ...... ... .... ... ....... ... ........ .. ........ ... ... ... ........ ........ ........ ........ .... ...... .... IV-5 2. Natural Gas and Coal Price flssumptions .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .....
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