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Potential Climate Change Impacts on Wind Resources POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WIND RESOURCES IN OKLAHOMA: A FOCUS ON FUTURE ENERGY OUTPUT By JAMES MACK DRYDEN, JR. Bachelor of Science in Meteorology The University of Oklahoma Norman, Oklahoma 2008 Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate College of the Oklahoma State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 2011 POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WIND RESOURCES IN OKLAHOMA: A FOCUS ON FUTURE ENERGY OUTPUT Thesis Approved: Dr. Stephen Stadler Thesis Adviser Dr. Jonathan Comer Dr. Scott Greene Dr. Mark E. Payton Dean of the Graduate College ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to acknowledge and thank the following people and organizations that assisted me with this research: Dr. Stephen Stadler Dr. Jonathan Comer Dr. Scott Greene Dr. Todd Fagin Dr. Jianjun Ge Dr. Allen Finchum Dr. Chris Fiebrich (Oklahoma Climatological Survey) Mike Larson Mike Klatt (Oklahoma Wind Power Initiative) Ethan Cook (Oklahoma Wind Power Initiative) Matt Chatelain (University of Oklahoma) Yun Zhao I would also like to thank the State Energy Office within the Oklahoma Department of Commerce who helped to fund this research. Furthermore, I would lastly like to acknowledge my family and close friends who stood by me and helped to keep me motivated to finish this research project. I love you all! iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................1 II. REVIEW OF LITERATURE....................................................................................4 Past Wind Climates ..................................................................................................4 Oklahoma Wind Climate .........................................................................................7 Potential Climate Change Impacts on Wind Resources ..........................................9 Energy Outlooks and Output Impacts ....................................................................14 III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY ...........................................................................18 Data ........................................................................................................................18 NARCCAP .............................................................................................................18 Historical Time-Slice (GFDL CM2.1) ...................................................................20 Climate Change Scenario .......................................................................................21 Future Time-Slice (NCAR CCSM3) .....................................................................23 Mesonet Data/Wind-Farm Locations .....................................................................24 Power Calculation ..................................................................................................27 Methodology ..........................................................................................................29 NARCCAP Data Processing ..................................................................................29 GIS and Spatial Statistics .......................................................................................30 Wind-Farm Site Selection and Corresponding Mesonet/NARCCAP Grid-Points 34 Power Derivations ..................................................................................................35 iv Chapter Page IV. FINDINGS .............................................................................................................39 NARCCAP Output, Power Results, Capacity Factors, and Economic Impacts ....39 1990-1999 Wind Velocities ...................................................................................40 2040-2049 Change in Wind Velocity ....................................................................42 2050-2059 Change in Wind Velocity ....................................................................45 2060-2069 Change in Wind Velocity ....................................................................48 Power Output and Percent Change .......................................................................51 Power Generation Changes from Climate Change ................................................51 Capacity Factor ......................................................................................................55 Impacts on Oklahoma’s Wind Power Industry and Economy ...............................57 V. CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................60 Limitations of Study ..............................................................................................60 Future Research .....................................................................................................62 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................63 APPENDICES .............................................................................................................70 Appendix A ..................................................................................................................70 Appendix B ..................................................................................................................81 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 – Oklahoma Wind Power Initiative wind-farm information sheet ...........................26 2 – Oklahoma Mesonet station characteristics.............................................................26 3 – Percent change in wind velocity at each wind-farm for 2040-2049 compared to 1990-1999 ..............................................................................................................42 4 – Percent change in wind velocity at each wind-farm for 2050-2059 compared to 1990-1999 ..............................................................................................................45 5 – Percent change in wind velocity at each wind-farm for 2060-2069 compared to 1990-1999 ..............................................................................................................48 6 – Power results for Centennial Wind-Farm for 1999 (x10) ......................................52 7 – Power results for Centennial Wind-Farm for future decades ................................53 8 – Power results for WWEC Wind-Farm for 1999 (x10)...........................................54 9 – Power results for WWEC Wind-Farm for future decades .....................................54 10 – Capacity Factors for each wind-farm through time .............................................56 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 – Average jet-stream path for Winter and Summer ....................................................8 2 – Study domain showing NARCCAP GCM output grid-points ...............................20 3 – IPCC SRES CO 2 emission scenarios .....................................................................22 4 – Wind-farm locations and Mesonet sites .................................................................25 5 – Power curve for GE 1.5 MW turbine .....................................................................28 6 – Histogram of 1990-1999 NARCCAP 10 m wind velocity simulations at the 33.00 N, -103.76 W grid-point...............................................................................30 7 – Local Moran’s I z-scores for median wind velocity 1990-1999 ............................32 8 – Semivariogram for 1990-99 median wind velocities .............................................33 9 – Histogram of 1990-1999 NARCCAP averaged median simulated wind velocities at 10 m for all 228 grid-points ...............................................................33 10– Histograms showing Winter wind velocity distributions at 80 m at Buffalo Mesonet site in 1999 and 2060-2069 ....................................................................36 11 – NARCCAP simulated median wind velocities (ms -1) at 10 m for 1990-1999 ....41 12 – Assesment of annual average wind velocity at 80 m at 2.5 km resolution ..........41 13 – 2040-2049 percent change in averaged median Spring wind velocity simulations (ms -1) at 10 m....................................................................................43 14 – 2040-2049 percent change in averaged median Summer wind velocity simulations (ms -1) at 10 m....................................................................................44 15 – 2050-2059 percent change in averaged median Spring wind velocity simulations (ms -1) at 10 m....................................................................................46 16 – 2050-2059 percent change in averaged median Fall wind velocity simulations (ms -1) at 10 m....................................................................................47 17 – 2060-2069 percent change in averaged median Spring wind velocity simulations (ms -1) at 10 m....................................................................................49 18 – 2060-2069 percent change in averaged median Summer wind velocity simulations (ms -1) at 10 m....................................................................................50 vii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Oklahoma possesses some of the best wind resources in the world. However, wind regimes are not static; they are dynamic in nature. Wind regimes are sensitive to natural climate variability as well as anthropogenic-driven climate change. The fundamental concern with all renewable energy based
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