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Kreimer/Arnold/Carlin DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT SERIES NO. 3 Public Disclosure Authorized Building Safer Cities THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. The Future of Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. Telephone: 202-473-1000 Disaster Risk Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] Public Disclosure Authorized Building Safer Cities Public Disclosure Authorized Edited by Alcira Kreimer, Margaret Arnold, and Anne Carlin The World Bank The World Public Disclosure Authorized The World Bank ISBN 0-8213-5497-3 Disaster Risk Management Series Building Safer Cities: The Future of Disaster Risk Edited by Alcira Kreimer Margaret Arnold Anne Carlin The World Bank Disaster Management Facility 2003 Washington, D.C. © 2003 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org E-mail [email protected] All rights reserved. 123406050403 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is copyrighted. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or inclusion in any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the World Bank. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail [email protected]. Photo Credits: Cover: submerged houses in Changsha, China, © Reuters NEWMEDIA INC./CORBIS; page 1: flooding after earthquake interrupts commercial activities in Turkey, © Alcira Kreimer, World Bank; page 90: flooded Manila Street, © Reuters NEWMEDIA INC./CORBIS; page 180: cleanup of church in Honduras after hurricane, © Bernard Bisson/CORBIS SYGMA; page 244: landslide destroys buildings in Venezuela, © PAHO. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for. ISBN 0-8213-5497-3 Contents Acknowledgments vii Abbreviations viii Contributors xi Editors’ Note xiv Part I Globalization and the Economic Impacts of Disasters 1. Disasters, Vulnerability, and the Global Economy 3 Charlotte Benson and Edward Clay 2. Natural Hazard Risk and Privatization 33 Paul K. Freeman 3. Natural Disaster Risk and Cost-Benefit Analysis 45 Reinhard Mechler 4. Globalization and Natural Disasters: An Integrative Risk Management Approach 57 Torben Juul Andersen 5. Urban Disasters and Globalization 75 J. M. Albala-Bertrand 6. Interdependent Disaster Risks: The Need for Public-Private Partnerships 83 Howard Kunreuther Part II Environment, Climate Variability, and Adaptation 7. Cities and Climate Change 91 Anthony G. Bigio 8. The Resilience of Coastal Megacities to Weather-Related Hazards 101 Richard J. T. Klein, Robert J. Nicholls, and Frank Thomalla 9. Flood Management and Vulnerability of Dhaka City 121 Saleemul Huq and Mozaharul Alam iii iv Building Safer Cities: The Future of Disaster Risk 10. Flooding in the Pampean Region of Argentina: The Salado Basin 137 Hilda Herzer 11. Urbanization and Natural Disasters in the Mediterranean: Population Growth and Climate Change in the 21st Century 149 Hans Günter Brauch 12. Urban Land Markets and Disasters: Floods in Argentina’s Cities 165 Nora Clichevsky Part III Social Vulnerability to Disaster Impacts 13. Disaster Risk Reduction in Megacities: Making the Most of Human and Social Capital 181 Ben Wisner 14. Living with Risk: Toward Effective Disaster Management Training in Africa 197 Prvoslav Marjanovic and Krisno Nimpuno 15. Urban Vulnerability to Disasters in Developing Countries: Managing Risks 211 E. L. Quarantelli 16. Natural Disasters and Urban Cultural Heritage: A Reassessment 233 June Taboroff Part IV Protecting Critical Infrastructure from Disaster Impacts 17. A New Structural Approach for the Study of Domino Effects between Life Support Networks 245 Benoît Robert, Jean-Pierre Sabourin, Mathias Glaus, Frédéric Petit, Marie-Hélène Senay 18. Mitigating the Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure in Developing Countries 273 Lamine Mili 19. Damage to and Vulnerability of Industrial Facilities in the 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey, Earthquake 289 Mustafa Erdik and Eser Durukal 20. The Behavior of Retrofitted Buildings During Earthquakes: New Technologies 293 Mikayel Melkumyan Figures 1.1 Dominica—Annual fluctuations in agricultural, nonagricultural and total GDP, 1978–99 22 1.2 Bangladesh—real annual fluctuations in GDP, agricultural, and nonagricultural sector product, 1996–2000 23 1.3 Malawi—real annual fluctuations in GDP and agricultural, industrial, and services sector product, 1980–98 25 Contents v 2.1 Economic losses from natural catastrophes in the 20th century 34 2.2 Natural catastrophe trends in the 20th century 35 3.1 Impacts of natural disasters 45 3.2 Project analysis under risk 47 3.3 World Bank post-disaster reconstruction loans in relation to total World Bank lending, 1980–99 48 3.4 Risk management of natural disasters 49 3.5 Important indicators for ability to spread disaster risk for Honduras and the United States 52 3.6 Projection of GDP paths with and without insurance of public assets in Honduras 52 4.1 Development in reported and insured catastrophe losses, 1970–2001 (three-year moving averages) 58 4.2 The relationship between economic growth and catastrophe losses, 1990–2000 59 4.3 Economic growth and changes in tariff rates 61 4.4 Economic losses and export concentration 62 4.5 Commodity price developments, 1990–2000 65 4.6 Elements of the dynamic risk management process 66 9.1 Demarcation between Pre-Mughal and Mughal Dhaka 123 9.2 The buildup area of the Mughal capital 124 9.3 Flood and drainage infrastructure of Dhaka 128 9.4 Water level hydrographs for Turag, Tongi, Buriganga, and Balu Rivers and rainfall in Dhaka during 1998 131 9.5 Water level hydrographs for Turag, Tongi, Buriganga, and Balu Rivers and rainfall in Dhaka during 1988 132 9.6 Existing and proposed flood control and management infrastructure in Dhaka 134 11.1 Worldviews and environmental standpoints 150 11.2 Horizontal and vertical security dimensions 151 11.3 Causes and outcomes of environmental stress 151 17.1 Risk scenario: a linear process 249 17.2 Evaluation of the impacts of a natural hazard and use of the results 250 17.3 Summary of the psychological varieties of unsafe acts 251 17.4 Diagram of the characterization of a life support network 254 17.5 Consequence curve for a municipality 256 17.6 Diagram of the conditions for decreasing the efficiency of a mission 257 17.7 Vulnerability curve for a transformer station 258 17.8 Definition of links 260 17.9 Affected components as a function of the water level rise in the upstream storage basin 261 17.10 Example of a repercussion function: relationship between the water level in a storage basin and at a transformer substation 262 17.11 Schematization of a risk curve 263 18.1 Major regions and river basins in Brazil 281 Tables 2.1 Catastrophe exposure in case study countries 40 2.2 Government financing needs in case study countries 40 2.3 Resource gap in case study countries 41 vi Building Safer Cities: The Future of Disaster Risk 3.1 Qualifications to applicability of risk neutrality–theorem 51 3.2 Disaster losses and availability of resources for spreading risk for the United States and Honduras 51 3.3 Assessment of costs and benefits of insuring public assets in Honduras 53 6.1 Expected outcomes associated with investing and not investing in protection 83 6.2 Illustrative example: Expected costs associated with investing and not investing in protection 84 8.1 The world’s largest cities, with projected populations in 2015 exceeding 8 million 103 8.2 Summary of the major weather-related hazards and the occurrence of subsidence during the 20th century for coastal megacities as forecast in 2015 104 8.3 Qualitative overview of direct socioeconomic impacts of weather-related hazards and climate change on a number of sectors in coastal zones 107 8.4 Generic approaches to hazard reduction based on purposeful adjustment 107 9.1 Area and population of Dhaka City, 1600–2001 126 9.2 Flood-affected people in Dhaka City by severity of the flood, 1998 129 9.3 Cost of rehabilitation and replacement of Dhaka Water Supply System (DWASA), March 1999 129 9.4 Flood characteristics of 1988 and 1998 floods in surrounding rivers of Dhaka City 133 10.1 Average rainfall for each region 138 11.1 Population growth of Mediterranean countries, 1850–2050 153 11.2 Changes in the urbanization rates of MENA countries (1950–2030) 154 11.3 Growth of urban centers in the Mediterranean, 1950–2015 (millions) 154 11.4 People reported killed by natural disasters