World Congress on Risk 2012 “Risk and Development in a Changing World”
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Society for Risk Analysis World Congress on Risk 2012 “Risk and Development in a Changing World” FINAL PROGRAM Sydney Convention and Exhibition Centre Darling Harbour, Sydney, Australia 17-20 July 2012 Table of Contents General Information ..........................................................................................................................1 Schedule at a Glance .......................................................................................................................2 Plenary Speaker Biographies ...........................................................................................................3 Session and Symposia Supporters ..................................................................................................6 Wednesday Sessions and Plenary Luncheon ..................................................................................7 Wednesday pm/Thursday am Poster, Session 1 ............................................................................10 Thursday Plenary and Sessions .....................................................................................................12 Thursday pm/Friday am Poster, Session 2.....................................................................................14 Friday Sessions and Plenary Luncheon .........................................................................................17 Abstracts (Alphabetical by Speaker) ..............................................................................................21 Author Index ...................................................................................................................................82 Registration Hours Novotel Darling Harbour Hotel Tuesday, 17 July ................................................... 5:00-7:00 pm Sydney Convention and Exhibition Centre Wednesday, 18 July ......................................... 8:00 am-4:00 pm Thursday, 19 July ............................................ 8:00 am-4:00 pm Friday, 20 July ................................................. 8:00 am-3:00 pm World Congress on Risk 2012: Risk and Development in a Changing World Background Recognition The World Congress on Risk 2012, being held on 17-20 July in Sydney, Aus- We recognize and express thanks for the generous support of our par- tralia, focuses on the theme “Risk and Development in a Changing World.” ticipating organizations and financial sponsors, including: This is the third in the series of World Congresses on Risk, organized by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) to further develop the field of risk analysis World Congress Sponsors - Core Leadership Level: and its applications worldwide. In partnership with other professional societ- US National Science Foundation ies and organizations, the SRA launched the first of this series in 2003 in Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Europe, and held the second in 2008 in Mexico. The theme for 2012, “Risk Society for Risk Analysis and Development in a Changing World,” invokes the global trend toward World Congress Supporters: better use of risk-based concepts, tools, and processes (derived from both Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis research and practice) in science, decision-making and risk management. The SRA deeply appreciates core support from two additional major spon- American Chemistry Council sors in 2012, the US National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Alfred P. Minerals Industry Safety and Health Centre, Sloan Foundation, along with many contributing sponsors, partners, and Sustainable Minerals Institute, The University of Queensland scientific and professional organizations. Friends of the Society for Risk Analysis: Conference Coordinator: Environ Society for Risk Analysis, ICCA 1313 Dolley Madison Blvd., Suite 402; McLean, VA 22101 INERIS web: www.SRA.org; email: [email protected] World Congress 2012 Co-Chairs: And we thank the many organizations that Alison Cullen, University of Washington sponsored individual sessions (see list on page 6). Daniela Leonte, Australian Department of Health/NICNAS Jonathan Wiener, Duke University Special thanks to our Core Leadership Sponsors 1 Bayside 204 A Bayside 204 B Bayside 203 Bayside 202 Bayside 201 08:30 - 10:00 08:30 - 10:00 08:30 - 10:00 W1-A Framing the Risks of Climate W1-B Symposium: Trust and Risk W1-C Symposium: New Approaches Change Perception to Old Chemicals: Assessing the Risks of Existing Chemicals... 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 W2-A Symposium: Risk Assessment, W2-B Risk Perception and Commu- W2-C Symposium: Risk Emergence W2-D Symposium: Advances in Risk W2-E Symposium: Product Liability in Sustainable Development and Multi- nication and Emerging Risk: The IRGC Project Assessment Methodologies a Global Marketplace Criteria Decision Analysis Wednesday Plenary Luncheon - Extreme Risks: Shocks & Disasters; 12:00-13:30, Parkside Ballroom B Speakers: Pierre-Alain Schieb and David Zhang 14:00 - 15:30 14:00 - 15:30 14:00 - 15:30 14:00 - 15:30 14:00 - 15:30 W3-A Disasters, Socioeconomic De- W3-B Perception and Communica- W3-C Symposium: iNTeg-Risk Proj- W3-D Symposium: Tools for Quantita- W3-E Symposium: Public Decision velopment and Modeling Methods tion in Nuclear, Mercury, Metals and ect: Part 1 tive Microbial Risk Assessment Making and Risk Management Medicine Poster Session 1 - 15:30 - 16:00; Bayside Terrace 16:00 - 17:30 16:00 - 17:30 16:00 - 17:30 16:00 - 17:30 16:00 - 17:30 W4-A Energy Risks and Governance W4-B Perception and Communica- W4-C Symposium: iNTeg-Risk Proj- W4-D Symposium: Quantitative Mi- W4-E Symposium: Biosecurity and Wednesday 18 July 2012 Wednesday tion ect, Part 2 crobial Risk Assessment and Water Intelligence Analysis Supply Management Thursday Plenary Session, Synthetic Genomics, Risk and Governance - Sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; 08:30 - 10:00, Bayside 204 AB Speakers: Michele Garfinkel and Robert Friedman Poster Session 1 - 10:00 - 10:30; Bayside Terrace 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 T2-C Risk and Disease T2-D Symposium: Extreme Event T2-AB Symposium: Emerging Risks and Synthetic Biology: Part 1 Risks: Low-Probability, High-Conse- quence A Roundtable on Risk Challenges, World Development, and Risk Analysis: An International Journal; 12:00-12:40, Bayside 203 Roundtable on Regional Affairs and SRA Integration; 12:45-13:25, Bayside 202 13:30 - 15:00 13:30 - 15:00 13:30 - 15:00 13:30 - 15:00 13:30 - 15:00 T3-A Toxic Exposures T3-B Emerging Risks and Synthetic T3-C Global Financial Risks/Assess- T3-D Symposium: Issues Emerging T3-E Symposium: Food Safety Biology: Part 2 ing Emerging Risks after the 3.11 Earthquake in Japan... Poster Session 2 - 15:00 - 15:30; Bayside Terrace 15:30 - 17:00 15:30 - 17:00 15:30 - 17:30 15:30 - 17:00 15:30 - 17:00 T4-A Symposium: Vaccines and Risk T4-B Risks and Opportunities in the T4-C SETAC Symposium: Human T4-D Symposium: Risk T4-E Food Health Risks Thursday 19 July 2012 Perception Field of Genomics and Ecological Implications of Climate Communication Strategies Change 08:30 - 10:00 08:30 - 10:00 08:30 - 10:00 08:30 - 10:00 08:30 - 10:00 F1-A Symposium: Transdisciplinary F1-B Natural Disasters F1-C Symposium: Assessing Emerg- F1-D Reducing Accident Risks F1-E Changing Risks in Land Use Risk Analysis ing Chemical and Biological Risks and Air Quality Poster Session 2 - 10:00 - 10:30; Bayside Terrace 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 10:30 - 12:00 F2-A Symposium: Global Catastroph- F2-B Warnings, Perceptions, and F2-C Symposium: Risk Analysis Tools F2-D Safety, Accident, F2-E Symposium: Air Pollution and ic Risks (GCRs) Consequences for Biosecurity Response Health Risks Friday Plenary Lunch - Global Public Health; 12:00 - 13:30, Parkside Ballroom B Speakers: Antoine Flahault and Raina MacIntyre 14:00 - 15:30 14:00 - 15:30 14:00 - 15:30 14:00 - 15:30 14:00 - 16:00 F3-A Risk and Nanotechnologies F3-B Risk of Climate Change F3-C Symposium: Health F3-D Risk Assessment in Industrial F3-E Symposium: Risks in New SRA Impact Assessment Settings Regions: Latin America and North Africa Friday 20 July 2012 16:00 - 17:30 16:00 - 17:30 16:00 - 17:30 16:00 - 17:30 16:00 - 17:30 F4-A Symposium: Regulation of F4-B Qualitative Uncertainty Methods F4-C Benefit Cost and Risks in Devel- F4-D Symposium: Risk Communica- F4-E Symposium: Energy, Security GMOs in South East Asia oping Countries tions and H1N1 and Emergency Management Plenary Keynote Speaker Biographies Plenary Luncheon Session - Extreme Risks: Shocks and Disasters Wednesday 18 July, Parkside Ballroom; 12:00 - 13:30 Pierre-Alain Schieb; OECD Dr. Pierre-Alain Schieb (a French national) is Counsellor in the Directorate of Science, Technology and Industry of the OECD, and Head of Futures Projects as part of the International Futures Programme, the OECD’s strategic foresight unit. Before joining the OECD in 1994, Dr. Schieb was Executive Vice-President of International Business of one France’s major corporations (1991-1994); Dean of a graduate school of business (1985-1991); and held an Associate-Professorship at the Uni- versity of Paris, Dauphine and other Universities in France and Canada (1970-1985) Plenary Luncheon Session - Extreme Risks: Shocks and Disasters Wednesday 18 July, Parkside Ballroom; 12:00 - 13:30 David Dian Zhang; University of Hong Kong Dr. David Zhang is Professor in the Department of Geography of the University of Hong Kong, where he has been a member of the faculty since 1995. He previously taught at the Department of Geography of the University