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Wright1344988862.Pdf (954.06 ENERGY POLITICS: THE EFFECTS OF CHINESE PETROLEUM DIPLOMACY ON US ENERGY POLICY OBJECTIVES IN NIGERIA (1993 - 2010) A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts By JENNIFER LYNN LEAPLEY B.A. Wright State University, 2005 2012 Wright State University WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES 01 August 2012 I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY SUPERVISION BY Jennifer Leapley ENTITLED Energy Politics: The Effects of Chinese Petroleum Diplomacy on US Energy Policy Objectives in Nigeria (1993 – 2010) BE ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Arts. _______________________ December Green, Ph.D. Thesis Director _________________________ Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Director, Master of Arts Program in International and Comparative Politics Committee on Final Examination: ___________________________________ December Green, Ph.D. Department of Political Science ___________________________________ Laura Luehrmann, Ph.D. Department of Political Science ___________________________________ Donna Schlagheck, Ph.D. Department of Political Science ______________________________ Andrew T. Hsu, Ph.D. Dean, School of Graduate Studies ABSTRACT Leapley, Jennifer, M.A., Department of Political Science, Wright State University, 2012. “The Effects of Chinese Petroleum Diplomacy on US Energy Policy Objectives in Nigeria (1993 – 2010).” The United States and China have turned to Africa as an additional source of oil to ensure reliable, secure access to oil supplies in the future. While China stresses noninterventionist foreign policies, the US, at least rhetorically, if not in practice, links its energy policy in Africa to its foreign policy goals. China’s petroleum diplomacy in Africa has raised concern among some scholars and policymakers about the effect an increased Chinese economic presence will have on American foreign policy objectives. The question arises: What impact has Chinese petroleum diplomacy had on US foreign policy objectives? More specifically, how strongly, if at all, does an increased Chinese economic presence correlate with less democratic African governments, worsening of African countries’ human rights records, and less transparency among African governments? This paper will examine these questions using a longitudinal study of 1993 to 2010 in one case study, Nigeria. iii Table of Contents Chapter I: Introduction .....................................................................................................................1 Statement of the Problem .............................................................................................................1 Trends in Global Oil Consumption ..............................................................................................1 Trends in US Oil Consumption ....................................................................................................4 Trends in Chinese Oil Consumption ............................................................................................5 The Research Question .................................................................................................................7 Methodology ................................................................................................................................8 Chapter II: Literature Review ........................................................................................................11 The Rise of Energy Politics ........................................................................................................11 Domestic Energy Policies ..........................................................................................................13 International Energy Policies .....................................................................................................17 Current US Energy Policies .......................................................................................................21 Current Chinese Energy Policies ................................................................................................24 Chinese Impact on American Foreign Policy Objectives ..........................................................34 Minimal to No Impact ............................................................................................................34 Significant Impact ..................................................................................................................40 Gaps In Research ........................................................................................................................43 Chapter III: Nigeria ........................................................................................................................45 Presentation of Statistics ............................................................................................................45 Explanation of Data ................................................................................................................46 Lack of Statistical Significance, Gaps in Data .......................................................................48 Background ................................................................................................................................49 1960 – 1978: Independence, the First Republic, and Military Rule .......................................49 1979 – 1993: The Second Republic, Military Rule, and the 1993 Elections .........................61 Process Tracing: 1993 - 2010 ....................................................................................................64 1993 – 1998: Abacha’s Military Dictatorship ........................................................................65 iv Political Rights During Abacha’s Rule .............................................................................66 Civil Liberties During Abacha’s Rule ...............................................................................69 Effect of Nigeria’s Oil Industry on Political Rights and Civil Liberties ...........................71 US Foreign Policy Toward Nigeria During Abacha’s Rule ..............................................73 Chinese Foreign Policy Toward Nigeria During Abacha’s Rule ......................................75 1998 – 1999: Abubakar’s Transition Program .......................................................................78 The Impact of Abubakar’s Transition Program on Political Rights and Civil Liberties ............................................................................................................................78 1999 – 2007: Obasanjo’s Presidency (The Beginning of the Fourth Republic) .....................80 Political Rights During Obasanjo’s Presidency ................................................................81 Civil Liberties During Obasanjo’s Presidency ..................................................................83 Effect of Nigeria’s Oil Industry on Political Rights and Civil Liberties ...........................87 US Foreign Policy Toward Nigeria During Obasanjo’s Presidency .................................90 Chinese Foreign Policy Toward Nigeria During Obasanjo’s Presidency .........................92 2007 – 2010: Yar’Adua’s and Jonathan’s Presidencies .........................................................94 Political Rights During Yar’Adua’s and Jonathan’s Presidencies ....................................95 Civil Liberties During Yar’Adua’s and Jonathan’s Presidencies ......................................98 Effect of Nigeria’s Oil Industry on Political Rights and Civil Liberties .........................100 US Foreign Policy Toward Nigeria During Yar’Adua’s and Jonathan’s Presidencies......................................................................................................................102 Chinese Foreign Policy Toward Nigeria During Yar’Adua’s and Jonathan’s Presidencies ....................................................................................................................105 Chapter IV: Conclusion ...............................................................................................................108 Appendix ......................................................................................................................................118 Appendix Table A1: Nigerian Oil and Total Export Data .......................................................118 Appendix Table A2: Dependent Variable Data for Nigeria .....................................................119 Works Cited .................................................................................................................................120 Works Consulted ..........................................................................................................................140 v List of Figures Figure 1: Growth in Total World Petroleum Consumption .............................................................3 Figure 2: World Crude Oil Prices from July 2008 through December 2010 ...................................4 Figure 3: US Oil Imports between January 1993 and January 2009 ...............................................5 Figure 4: Chinese Crude Oil Imports by Source, 2009 ....................................................................6 Figure 5: Chinese Oil Consumption and Production .......................................................................7 Figure 6: Nigerian Dependent Variables
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