Thesis Submitted to the University of London for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy THE NATIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF POSTCOMMUNIST TRANSITIONS Natalia Leshchenko London School of Economics and Political Science 2006 UMI Number: U615873 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615873 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 khjbu ^ xajumxguuE .'>»■ .;ii)nysiJM9 ajbjuh Abstract This thesis addresses the divergence of postcommunist transitions in terms of political regime types. The literature on democratisation proposes three principal factors as determining the unveiling of developmental paths in transition states: elite power configurations, economic policies, and international relations. While these factors indeed explain the success of some postcommunist democratisations, they cannot account for the array of political trajectories across the region. The thesis proposes nationalism as the principal factor behind such divergence. It suggests that the forms of nationalism available to and adopted by political elites were behind the variation in postcommunist regime development. The thesis reveals a specific postcommunist type of nationalism, egalitarian nationalism, which is ethnically inclusive but anti-liberal. It proposes that the prevalence of pro-European liberal or collectivist egalitarian nationalism determined the evolution of postcommunist transition types towards democracy or authoritarianism respectively. The argument is developed through the analysis of the historically longest and the most stable case of postcommunist transition reverted from a democratic to an authoritarian path: the post-soviet development of Belarus. The country’s elites’ effectiveness in formulating policies in national ideological terms proved consistent with their political success or failure, and thus determined the direction of Belarusian development. During the democratisation period, liberal nationalism was pursued in a way that had little resonance with inherited identities and was inconsistent with the European developmental model that its protagonists purported to profess. As such, it discredited and undermined the democratic development of Belarus. The more egalitarian national ideology, on the contrary, was upheld in a socially resonant way, and was consistent with the policies advanced in other spheres of social development. As such, egalitarian nationalism underpinned the construction and consolidation of an authoritarian regime. The main contention of the thesis is that political ideologies, and national ideologies in particular, remain a key determinant of social development in the present day world. 2 Table of Contents Abstract 2 Acknowledgements 4 Preface 5 Introduction 6 1. Theoretical deficiencies and the research agenda 10 I. Stalled democracies: problems with the literature 14 II. Nationalism as strategic tool in postcommunist transformations 24 IE. Methodological framework 31 IV. Belarus: a critical case of stalled democracy 39 2. Reconfigurations of Elites 54 I. Elite stalemate 55 II. The elite pact: divide and rule 62 III. An authoritarian leader and the administrative elite 70 3. From soviet to national ownership of the economy 82 I. Reforms without restructuring 83 II. Economic policy based on ideology 96 4. National ideology as a framework for international engagement 114 I. The Belarusian state seeks the world (and no partner in particular) 116 II. Eastern Slavs, unite!., but not quite 122 in. From cool to glacial relations with the West 131 5. Same people, different nations: civic and egalitarian nationalism 138 I. The soviet legacy as nation-building material 140 II. ‘Belarus to Europe’.. .of the past 145 ID. Egalitarian national ideology for the authoritarian regime 151 IV. Liberal versus egalitarian nationalism: no foregone conclusion 164 6. No alternative (yet) 168 I. The complacent stakeholders of the authoritarian regime 169 II. The nationally disconnected opposition 174 III. The potential for civic nationalism: existent but diminishing 183 7. Theoretical proposition and research conclusions 189 I. Nationalism as the critical elite strategy leading to the variation in postcommunist transformations 189 II. The post-soviet transformation of Belarus from the perspective of national mobilisation 207 Interviews Referenced 221 Bibliography 223 3 Acknowledgements This thesis is the product of curiosity, good luck and kindness of many extraordinary people. Professor Helmut Anheier set me on a journey by opening the door to the LSE Centre for Civil Society. Lord Ralf Dahrendorf shone the light by showing the greatness and simplicity of a true intellectual. Dr. Abby Innes led the way by being a dream of a supervisor. Like a coach to sportsman, she insisted on relentless training, taught master techniques and did not yield to the requests of a champ match until she felt the timing was right. Abby shared her time and her mind beyond the extent hoped from a tutor, and I will never be able to thank Abby enough. My examiners Dr. Gwen Sasse and Dr. Neil Robinson dedicated time and attention to help channel the ambition of the thesis into a most appropriate academic route. I was fortunate to benefit from generosity of the Atlantic Philanthropies (Lord Dahrendorf Scholarship), the UK government (Overseas Research Scheme Award), the LSE (Research Studentship), the Open Society Institute (Global Supplementary grant), the Newby Trust and the Gilchrist Educational Trust (PhD assistantships); I highly appreciate their support. I am also thankful to almost 100 political and civic activists throughout Belarus whom I interviewed for the thesis, and to Professor Nadezda Ablova, my mentor in Minsk, who guided me through the world of Belarusian politics. My special gratitude goes to the wonderful Pritchard family, who have been kind and generous, warm and caring towards me for many years and have given me a sense of home in Britain. Laura Pritchard has proof-read the thesis, yet another expression of her friendship, which I have always valued. My other friends have been great companions on this journey, both by contributing to the thesis and making sure I had a life beyond it. Olga Us took me to explore London and proved a most forgiving friend. Anastasia Nesvetailova discussed both academic ideas and fashion trends. Lesley Hustinx and Francesca Borgonovi, my academic sisters, walked the doctorate road ahead of me, and encouraged by example. Nadia Telesh, David Cashaback, Babken Babajanian, Francesco Grillo, Olga Maslovskaya, Natasha Chernyshova, Ebenezer Obadare, Nikolai Ovsianko, Sergei Ovsianko, and Victor Tsyboulko have been great people to be with and simply true friends. Last but not least, I am thankful to my brother Sergei, who resisted asking about the progress of my thesis but bought me food instead and made me have rest. I owe this doctorate to my parents, since my birth stopped them from getting theirs. Your encouragement, patience, and belief in me made me who I am. I dedicate this thesis to my family: my parents and my brother. We learned by our own experience that the wins and losses of transition often go together, yet we always appreciated the freedom and opportunities which the end of the soviet regime opened. To all of you, with deep gratitude, THANK YOU. 4 Preface On a sunny summer day in 1995, my friends and I skipped a university lecture to watch the replacement of the state emblem on the facade of the Belarusian President’s residence. The symbol we saw being removed from the top of the building was the ‘historic’ Belarusian crest, the auspice of democratic change in the country since 1991; the emblem going up into its place was that of the soviet era in Belarus. To watch the change felt like a bad dream, with the signs changing in a reverse order. We were eighteen, naive and ambitious children of perestroika and democratisation; we studied diplomacy and assumed we would lead Belarus as a new European democracy. The presidential election in 1994 and a referendum on state symbols in 1995, however, showed that the majority of Belarusians did not share our confidence. The reinstallation of the soviet emblem on the presidential residence on that summer day seemed to seal our dreams and our future. To watch the process almost hurt physically; I saw tears in my friends’ eyes. I realised that the vision of a democratic, European Belarus we had grown up with was a mere construction of symbols, ideas and myths, which could be easily dismantled. National identity suddenly seemed something very artificial, and yet hugely significant for the lives of my friends and myself. Instinctively, I had no doubt that nationalism mattered for postcommunist transitions. After four years of research for this thesis, I am able to explain why and how. 5 Introduction Postcommunist transitions have yielded divergent results, from consolidated democracies in Central Eastern Europe to consolidated authoritarian regimes in Belarus and Central Asia. This thesis addresses the divergence