Effects of Horizontal Resolution and Air–Sea Flux Parameterization
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Contextualizing Disaster
Contextualizing Disaster This open access edition has been made available under a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license, thanks to the support of Knowledge Unlatched. Catastrophes in Context Series Editors: Gregory V. Button, former faculty member of University of Michigan at Ann Arbor Mark Schuller, Northern Illinois University / Université d’État d’Haïti Anthony Oliver-Smith, University of Florida Volume ͩ Contextualizing Disaster Edited by Gregory V. Button and Mark Schuller This open access edition has been made available under a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license, thanks to the support of Knowledge Unlatched. Contextualizing Disaster Edited by GREGORY V. BUTTON and MARK SCHULLER berghahn N E W Y O R K • O X F O R D www.berghahnbooks.com This open access edition has been made available under a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license, thanks to the support of Knowledge Unlatched. First published in 2016 by Berghahn Books www.berghahnbooks.com ©2016 Gregory V. Button and Mark Schuller Open access ebook edition published in 2019 All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purposes of criticism and review, no part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission of the publisher. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Button, Gregory, editor. | Schuller, Mark, 1973– editor. Title: Contextualizing disaster / edited by Gregory V. Button and Mark Schuller. Description: New York : Berghahn Books, [2016] | Series: Catastrophes in context ; v. -
Hurricane Andrew in Florida: Dynamics of a Disaster ^
Hurricane Andrew in Florida: Dynamics of a Disaster ^ H. E. Willoughby and P. G. Black Hurricane Research Division, AOML/NOAA, Miami, Florida ABSTRACT Four meteorological factors aggravated the devastation when Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida: completed replacement of the original eyewall by an outer, concentric eyewall while Andrew was still at sea; storm translation so fast that the eye crossed the populated coastline before the influence of land could weaken it appreciably; extreme wind speed, 82 m s_1 winds measured by aircraft flying at 2.5 km; and formation of an intense, but nontornadic, convective vortex in the eyewall at the time of landfall. Although Andrew weakened for 12 h during the eyewall replacement, it contained vigorous convection and was reintensifying rapidly as it passed onshore. The Gulf Stream just offshore was warm enough to support a sea level pressure 20-30 hPa lower than the 922 hPa attained, but Andrew hit land before it could reach this potential. The difficult-to-predict mesoscale and vortex-scale phenomena determined the course of events on that windy morning, not a long-term trend toward worse hurricanes. 1. Introduction might have been a harbinger of more devastating hur- ricanes on a warmer globe (e.g., Fisher 1994). Here When Hurricane Andrew smashed into South we interpret Andrew's progress to show that the ori- Florida on 24 August 1992, it was the third most in- gins of the disaster were too complicated to be ex- tense hurricane to cross the United States coastline in plained by thermodynamics alone. the 125-year quantitative climatology. -
2£ Nome Nugget Oldest Newspaper in Alaska—Member Associated Press
2£ NOME NUGGET OLDEST NEWSPAPER IN ALASKA—MEMBER ASSOCIATED PRESS_. ** I VOL. LX No. 115 NOME, ALASKA, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 1958 Per Copy—15^ — V- ■- — —=r U. S. Puts Weather AVA STARTS NOME MEET TODAY Supplies Reaching Quemoy Despite Satellite Red But Is That Probing AVA WILL START their three-day meet here Blockade, Feeling Into Orbit THEat 1 o’clock this afternoon, at the U. S. Court Room. Directors who have arrived to attend the By JACK KING meeting Effort Must Fail -4 ►are as follows: Massive Eventually CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla., [ffl < »- Chuck West, of Alaska Travel By JAMES CAREY — A weather probing Vanguard Lana’s To int» can be up. Daughter Bureau; Bob Ellis, Ellis Airlines; — kept TAIPEI, Formosa, OP Fresh satellite was blasted into space These are vital questions be- Everett Patton, Alaska Highway supplies poured to Quemoy’s de- today and preliminary instrumen- Remain In Custody cause American policy of contain- Tours, and president of the Board; fenders by air and sea amid tation showed the rocket’s three ing the Formosa Strait war seems Of Her Grandmother O. F. Benecke, Alaska Coastal heavy Communist artillery fire engines performed normally. now to on the Reds Airlines; Jim Binkley, Alaska hinge denying — today. That meant the huge rocket SANTA MONICA, Calif., GP> the chance to starve out Quemoy. Riverways; Frank Downey, White The buildup came as the Chi- blazed some 300 miles high in Cheryl Crane will remain in the Warships of the U. S. 7th Fleet Pass Railroad; Wm. Ferro, Skag- nese Nationalists announced an- space, probably reaching a speed custody of her maternal grand- are escorting the convoys. -
Introduction of Confidence Interval Based on Probability Limit Method
water Article Introduction of Confidence Interval Based on Probability Limit Method Test into Non-Stationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis Keita Shimizu 1,*, Tadashi Yamada 2 and Tomohito J. Yamada 3 1 Civil, Human and Environmental Engineering Course, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, 1-13-27, Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8551, Japan 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, 1-13-27, Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8551, Japan; [email protected] 3 Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, N13 W8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8628, Japan; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +81-3-3817-1805 Received: 15 September 2020; Accepted: 27 September 2020; Published: 29 September 2020 Abstract: Nonstationarity in hydrological variables has been identified throughout Japan in recent years. As a result, the reliability of designs derived from using method based on the assumption of stationary might deteriorate. Non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis is among the measures to counter this possibility. Using this method, time variations in the probable hydrological quantity can be estimated using a non-stationary extreme value distribution model with time as an explanatory variable. In this study, we build a new method for constructing the confidence interval regarding the non-stationary extreme value distribution by applying a theory of probability limit method test. Furthermore, by introducing a confidence interval based on probability limit method test into the non-stationary hydrological frequency analysis, uncertainty in design rainfall because of lack of observation information was quantified, and it is shown that assessment pertaining to both the occurrence risk of extremely heavy rainfall and changes in the trend of extreme rainfall accompanied with climate change is possible. -
FALL 2011 - Volume 58, Number 3 the Air Force Historical Foundation Founded on May 27, 1953 by Gen Carl A
FALL 2011 - Volume 58, Number 3 WWW.AFHISTORICALFOUNDATION.ORG The Air Force Historical Foundation Founded on May 27, 1953 by Gen Carl A. “Tooey” Spaatz MEMBERSHIP BENEFITS and other air power pioneers, the Air Force Historical All members receive our exciting and informative Foundation (AFHF) is a nonprofi t tax exempt organization. Air Power History Journal, either electronically or It is dedicated to the preservation, perpetuation and on paper, covering: all aspects of aerospace history appropriate publication of the history and traditions of American aviation, with emphasis on the U.S. Air Force, its • Chronicles the great campaigns and predecessor organizations, and the men and women whose the great leaders lives and dreams were devoted to fl ight. The Foundation • Eyewitness accounts and historical articles serves all components of the United States Air Force— Active, Reserve and Air National Guard. • In depth resources to museums and activities, to keep members connected to the latest and AFHF strives to make available to the public and greatest events. today’s government planners and decision makers information that is relevant and informative about Preserve the legacy, stay connected: all aspects of air and space power. By doing so, the • Membership helps preserve the legacy of current Foundation hopes to assure the nation profi ts from past and future US air force personnel. experiences as it helps keep the U.S. Air Force the most modern and effective military force in the world. • Provides reliable and accurate accounts of historical events. The Foundation’s four primary activities include a quarterly journal Air Power History, a book program, a • Establish connections between generations. -
Impacts of Horizontal Resolution and Air–Sea Flux Parameterization On
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-333 Manuscript under review for journal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discussion started: 2 January 2019 c Author(s) 2019. CC BY 4.0 License. Impacts of Horizontal Resolution and Air–Sea Flux Parameterization on the Intensity and Structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013) Mien-Tze Kueh1, Wen-Mei Chen1, Yang-Fan Sheng1, Simon C. Lin2, Tso-Ren Wu3, Eric Yen4, Yu-Lin Tsai3, Chuan-Yao Lin1 5 1Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan 2Academia Sinica Grid Computing Centre, Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan 3Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan 4Academia Sinica Grid Computing Centre, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan 10 Correspondence to: Chuan-Yao Lin ([email protected]) Abstract. This study investigates the impacts of horizontal resolution and surface flux formulas on typhoon intensity and structure simulations through the case study of the Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013). Three different sets of surface flux 15 formulas in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model were tested using grid spacing of 1, 3, and 6 km. Both increased resolution and more reasonable surface flux formulas can improve typhoon intensity simulation, but their impacts on storm structures are different. A combination of decrease in momentum transfer coefficient and increase in enthalpy transfer coefficients has greater potential to yield stronger storm. This positive effect of more reasonable surface flux formulas can be efficiently enhanced when the grid spacing is appropriately reduced to yield intense and contracted eyewall structure. As 20 resolution increases, the eyewall becomes more upright and contracted inward. -
The Children of Hiroshima: a Bridge of Peace Between Japan and America
Teacher’s Guide Hiroshima peace project Film Pictures from a Hiroshima schoolyard, Book Running with Cosmos Flowers; The Children of Hiroshima: A Bridge of Peace Between Japan and America By Shizumi Shigeto Manale INTRODUCTION TO THE STORY, The Children of Hiroshima who lived in zero zone Right after the war and the dropping of the atomic bombs, some children in Hiroshima received an unexpected Christmas present of art supplies from Americans whose names they never learned. In gratitude, the children drew pictures and sent them back to America. The children enjoyed putting their noses close to the white paper, smelling its nice smell and drawing with the crayons that came in 24 colors--something they had never seen. These children, and the pictures they drew, were the forty-eight seeds. The joy and humor these children found in the barren landscape of the post war days not only warms our hearts but reminds us afresh that these are the most important things to human beings. The small happiness that the children were able to realize at that time ended up being a special treasure with which dreams were built and ideals pursued. Although at that time the conveniences or computers and cell phones didn’t exist, for these children, the lack of possessions wasn’t a concern because their imaginations were rich. Despite the difficult times these children had experienced, their pictures are filled with joy and a desire to live. Sixty-three years after she drew it, the main character, an older woman named Hanako, sees her drawing of herself, running with a bouquet of cosmos flowers. -
Significant Data on Major Disasters Worldwide, 1900-Present
DISASTER HISTORY Signi ficant Data on Major Disasters Worldwide, 1900 - Present Prepared for the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance Agency for International Developnent Washington, D.C. 20523 Labat-Anderson Incorporated Arlington, Virginia 22201 Under Contract AID/PDC-0000-C-00-8153 INTRODUCTION The OFDA Disaster History provides information on major disasters uhich have occurred around the world since 1900. Informtion is mare complete on events since 1964 - the year the Office of Fore8jn Disaster Assistance was created - and includes details on all disasters to nhich the Office responded with assistance. No records are kept on disasters uhich occurred within the United States and its territories.* All OFDA 'declared' disasters are included - i.e., all those in uhich the Chief of the U.S. Diplmtic Mission in an affected country determined that a disaster exfsted uhich warranted U.S. govermnt response. OFDA is charged with responsibility for coordinating all USG foreign disaster relief. Significant anon-declared' disasters are also included in the History based on the following criteria: o Earthquake and volcano disasters are included if tbe mmber of people killed is at least six, or the total nmber uilled and injured is 25 or more, or at least 1,000 people art affect&, or damage is $1 million or more. o mather disasters except draught (flood, storm, cyclone, typhoon, landslide, heat wave, cold wave, etc.) are included if the drof people killed and injured totals at least 50, or 1,000 or mre are homeless or affected, or damage Is at least S1 mi 1l ion. o Drought disasters are included if the nunber affected is substantial. -
D4pdf) and Impact Study
Examples of story-line approaches of climate change research *Izuru TAKAYABU (MRI) 05/09/2018 @ GEWEX2-2018 2018/09/03 V5 Research Background • IPCC AR6 is planned to be IPCC Expert meeting on published in 2021 assessing climate • Strong connection among information for the regions (16-18/05/2018) WGs are recommended An example of bridging study by using global model results • Here we show an example of bridging many ensembles experiment (d4PDF) and impact study. • 100-year return periods wind and storm-surge has been evaluated from d4PDF data. • It make use of O(1000) years sample size of d4PDF data. Global TC genesis frequency (d4PDF) ○ As the number of ensembles increase, sample number of rare-events The sample size is 6000 yrs. become large and we could get PDF. in the present, and 5400 yrs. In the future projections Yoshida et al, 2017 An application study by using d4PDF data Storm surges in Regional distribution of 100-year return storm-surge / surface wind periods Future percent change in sea surface wind speeds (contour) and storm surges (coast line) in 100-year return periods. The right color-bar shows the range of sea surface wind speed change, the bottom color-bar shows the range of storm surge change (unit: percentage). (Mori et al, 2018 submitted) Relationships between RCMs, ESD, and meteorological phenomena MIP - CMIP6 AO-GCM Res - High Grid size DDS) ABL scheme) ( ( (Dynamical frame) 100km LSM 50km Hydro RANS CORDEX Convection parameterization Convection 25km 10km Extreme 5km precipitation 1km Gray zone DDS Hydro - LES Non ESD Urban Urban canopy Cloud microphysics Cloud CMIP6 CORDEX DDS High-Res-MIP ESD RCM’s structure Projects Orlanski (1975)’s diagram The influence of horizontal resolution of the numerical model • Why we need high resolution model? – Here we confirm it, from Kanada and Wada (2016) • To investigate the impact of model resolution on simulated intensity and intensifying rate of an extremely intense tropical cyclone (Cat. -
The Air Typhoon Model for Japan
In 2018 and 2019, four powerful The AIR Typhoon typhoons struck Japan, incurring total insured losses of more Model for Japan than USD 30 billion from wind, precipitation-induced flooding, and storm surge damage. As the number and value of properties in Japan’s risk-prone areas continues to grow, it is essential for companies operating in this market to have the tools that will help effectively manage and mitigate the financial risks from future devastating typhoons. THE AIR TYPHOON MODEL FOR JAPAN While in the context of Japan’s recent The AIR Typhoon Model for Japan—part of AIR’s Northwest Pacific Basinwide Typhoon Model—provides a realistic view typhoon history, the losses for the of potential losses from tropical cyclones with a catalog back-to-back seasons of 2018 and incorporating cutting-edge science that best reflects the current understanding of the spatial-temporal characteristics 2019 seem high, we know that if of tropical cyclones in this basin. To facilitate risk assessment Typhoon Ida (1958) and Typhoon and risk differentiation at a highly granular level, the model incorporates the latest engineering research in the resilience of Vera (1959) were to recur today, local construction to the perils of typhoon winds, precipitation- the losses would be even higher. induced flooding, and storm surge. In the stochastic catalog of the AIR Robust Catalog Leverages Data from Leading Regional Organizations Typhoon Model for Japan, there are The model features a large catalog of simulated events that 698 instances of aggregated insured appropriately characterizes the frequency, track, and other meteorological aspects of potential future storms. -
JICA Handbook for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)
JICA Handbook for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) (Forethought to DRR for Development Projects) MARCH 2015 Japan International Cooperation Agency JICA SUNCOH CONSULTANTS Co., Ltd. EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE Co., Ltd. JICA Handbook for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) (Forethought to DRR for development projects) 1. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE HANDBOOK ................................................... 1 Background of the Development of the Handbook 1 Purpose of the Development of the Handbook 2 Structure of the Handbook 2 2. ABOUT “MAINSTREAMING DISASTER RISK REDUCTION” ....................... 4 Global Trend of 4 Significance and Effects of 6 3. METHOD OF DISASTER RISK SCREENING AND SCOPING FOR JICA'S PROJECTS ................................................................................................................ 9 Actions by JICA in Disaster Risk Reduction 9 Value of Forethought for Disaster Risk Reduction 10 Development of Economic Simulation Model for Investment for DRR 14 Method for Disaster Risk Reduction Forethought 15 Reduction of Disaster Risk 17 Improvement of adaptation abilities for natural hazard and disaster 17 Improvement of capabilities about local disaster risk reduction 21 Forethought to DRR in Development Projects 22 4. JICA’S DISASTER RISK SCREENING AND SCOPING FOR DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS: IMPLEMENTATION METHODS IN PROJECTS ................................. 25 Flow of Disaster Forethought in Projects and Positioning of the Handbook 25 Overview 25 Flow of Disaster Risk Screening and Scoping 27 Screening -
Is the USAF Flying Force Large Enough? Assessing Capacity Demands in Four Alternative Futures
C O R P O R A T I O N Is the USAF Flying Force Large Enough? Assessing Capacity Demands in Four Alternative Futures Alan J. Vick, Paul Dreyer, John Speed Meyers For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2500 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0072-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The 1997 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) directed the Department of Defense to conduct a systematic review of U.S.