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Numerical Study on the Extremely Rapid Intensification of an Intense Tropical Cyclone: Typhoon Ida (1958)

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Numerical Study on the Extremely Rapid Intensification of an Intense Tropical Cyclone: Typhoon Ida (1958) 4194 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 72 Numerical Study on the Extremely Rapid Intensification of an Intense Tropical Cyclone: Typhoon Ida (1958) SACHIE KANADA Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi, Japan AKIYOSHI WADA Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan (Manuscript received 25 August 2014, in final form 7 June 2015) ABSTRACT Extremely rapid intensification (ERI) of Typhoon Ida (1958) was examined with a 2-km-mesh nonhydrostatic model initiated at three different times. Ida was an extremely intense tropical cyclone with a minimum central pressure of 877 hPa. The maximum central pressure drop in 24 h exceeded 90 hPa. ERI was successfully sim- ulated in two of the three experiments. A factor crucial to simulating ERI was a combination of shallow-to- moderate convection and tall, upright convective bursts (CBs). Under a strong environmental vertical wind 2 shear (.10 m s 1), shallow-to-moderate convection on the downshear side that occurred around the intense near-surface inflow moistened the inner-core area. Meanwhile, dry subsiding flows on the upshear side helped intensification of midlevel (8 km) inertial stability. First, a midlevel warm core appeared below 10 km in the shallow-to-moderate convection areas, being followed by the development of the upper-level warm core as- sociated with tall convection. When tall, upright, rotating CBs formed from the leading edge of the intense near- surface inflow, ERI was triggered at the area in which the air became warm and humid. CBs penetrated into the upper troposphere, aligning the areas with high vertical vorticity at low to midlevels. The upper-level warm core developed rapidly in combination with the midlevel warm core. Under the preconditioned environment, the formation of the upright CBs inside the radius of maximum wind speeds led to an upright axis of the secondary circulation within high inertial stability, resulting in a very rapid central pressure deepening. 1. Introduction processes (e.g., Kepert 2012), TC vortex dynamics and associated convection (e.g., Montgomery and Enagonio Although there have been steady improvements in 1998; Montgomery et al. 2006), and air–sea interactions forecasting the tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs), fore- beneath the TC (e.g., Ito et al. 2011; Wada et al. 2014). casting their intensities remains a challenging issue (e.g., More accurate prediction of the rate of TC in- Wang and Wu 2004), because TC intensity and its changes tensification is a key factor for improving intensity involve a wide variety of processes over multiple temporal forecasts. According to TC best-track data, most in- and spatial scales. These processes include atmospheric tense TCs, specifically category 4 and 5 (Kaplan and and oceanic environmental phenomena (e.g., Gray 1968; DeMaria 2003) TCs on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane Hendricks et al. 2010; Riemer et al. 2010; Wada et al. scale (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), un- 2012), cloud microphysics (e.g., Sawada and Iwasaki 2007; dergo rapid intensification (RI). One of the definitions Zhou and Wang 2011), planetary boundary layer (PBL) of RI is a central pressure drop greater than 42 hPa within 24 h (Holliday and Thompson 1979). The RI associated with extremely intense TCs is of great con- Denotes Open Access content. cern because of the serious damage caused by these storms, particularly in coastal regions. TC intensification is theoretically explained by sym- Corresponding author address: Sachie Kanada, Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, metric and asymmetric mechanisms. The former involves a Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan. symmetric, overturning, balanced circulation above E-mail: [email protected] the PBL (Charney and Eliassen 1964; Ooyama 1969). DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0247.1 Ó 2015 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 07:43 PM UTC NOVEMBER 2015 K A N A D A A N D W A D A 4195 Recently, Vigh and Schubert (2009) used a balanced more important for triggering RI above the boundary vortex model to show that diabatic heating within a layer or inside the boundary layer and for determining region of high inertial stability inside the radius of the rate of intensification? maximum azimuthal mean wind (RMW) results in a First, the structural changes of the TC inner-core re- rapid increase of positive warm-core temperature gion just before and during RI need to be clarified. To anomalies. By applying the Sawyer–Eliassen equation provide this clarification, we performed numerical ex- to a balanced vortex, Pendergrass and Willoughby periments that allowed us to investigate the temporal (2009) also found that diabatic heating inside the evolution of atmospheric environmental conditions and RMW results in a rapid increase of tangential winds inner-core structures of an extremely intense TC ac- and, thus, a contraction of the RMW. companied by extremely rapid intensification (ERI). In contrast, the asymmetric mechanism highlights a We paid special attention to the structural changes of rotating, deep convection (i.e., vortical hot towers), the inner-core region before the onset of ERI to thor- generally in relation to the spinup mechanism of maxi- oughly understand the mechanisms associated with ERI mum tangential winds in the TC boundary layer, where processes in the inner-core region and to identify the the winds are affected by surface friction (Bui et al. 2009; inner-core structures and environmental conditions for Montgomery et al. 2014; Montgomery and Smith 2014; the onset of ERI. Smith et al. 2009). Many previous studies have linked deep convection around the storm center to TC intensification. In the late 2. Model and methodology 1980s, Steranka et al. (1986) found that maximum winds 2 a. Case description of TCs in most cases increased by 5 m s 1 or more within 24 h, during which time intense convection with high This study chose an extremely intense TC [minimum cloud tops lasted more than 9 h. Based on a composite central pressure (MCP) , 900 hPa] case that had un- analyses of airborne Doppler observations, Rogers et al. dergone the greatest rapid deepening, according to best- (2013) reported that intensifying TCs had a relatively track data, since 1952. A tropical depression formed from large amount of tall and vigorous convection [i.e., con- an easterly wave around the Marshall Islands on 20 Sep- vective bursts (CBs)] inside the RMW compared with tember 1958 and was named Ida at 1800 UTC 20 September steady-state TCs. Sanger et al. (2014) examined the (Fig. 1). The storm moved to the west while maintaining a spinup mechanism of rapidly intensifying Super Typhoon central pressure of 985 hPa. At 0000 UTC 22 September, Jangmi (2008) and reported the observation of multiple the TC changed direction to the northwest and initiated RI. rotating updrafts and a huge upright updraft with strong, The TC underwent an extremely rapid drop in central 2 low-level convergence and intense relative vorticity in- pressure (CP) at rates that exceeded 20 hPa (6 h) 1 from side the RMW. The contribution of CBs to an upper-level 0600 to 1200 UTC 23 September and reached an MCP of warm core have also been suggested in observational and 877 hPa at 0600 UTC 24 September. The maximum drop numerical studies (Chen and Zhang 2013; Guimond et al. rate of CP per 6 h (dCP6h) was 39 hPa. The TC then moved 2010; Heymsfield et al. 2001). northward and made landfall in Japan around 34.48N, Recently, Kieper and Jiang (2012) found that a ring- 139.08E at 1500 UTC 26 September. The TC caused tor- like axisymmetric pattern of precipitation detected from rential flooding in southeastern Japan that resulted in 1269 satellite observations was related to RI. Furthermore, fatalities. based on an 11-yr Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission b. Model description database (http://pmm.nasa.gov/trmm), a statistical rela- tionship existed between inner-core convection inten- The nonhydrostatic atmosphere model is based on the sity and TC intensification (Jiang 2012). However, that Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) operational non- study also indicated that the increase of RI probability hydrostatic mesoscale model (JMANHM; Saito et al. above the climatological mean predicted by the existence 2007). The 2-km-mesh version (NHM2) includes bulk- of hot towers was not very large. In addition, the RI type cloud microphysics with an ice phase (Murakami probability without hot towers was still 4.9% (Jiang 2012). 1990), a clear-sky radiation scheme (Yabu et al. 2005), Moderate-to-deep convection and associated latent heat and a cloud radiation scheme (Kitagawa 2000). No cu- release significantly increased only after RI had been un- mulus parameterization scheme is adopted in NHM2. derway for at least 12 h (Zagrodnik and Jiang 2014). The model applies the Deardorff–Blackadar scheme There is debate about the importance of the axisym- (Deardorff 1980; Blackadar 1962) and the Louis scheme metric and asymmetric processes of TC intensification (Louis et al. 1982) with a surface-roughness-length for- (e.g., Nolan et al. 2007). Which of the mechanisms is mulation based on Kondo (1975) as the PBL scheme and Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 07:43 PM UTC 4196 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 72 FIG. 1. Domain of the NHM5 experiment and track of Typhoon Ida (1958) every 6 h indicated by closed black symbols. Closed square symbols indicate the location of the minimum central pressure. The rectangle outlined by the red line shows the domain of the NHM2 experiments. Black numbers indicate the day in September 1958. (top- right inset) Tracks of the TC simulated with NHM5 (blue), 2112 (green), 2118 (orange), and 2200 (red), as well as the best track (black).
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