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1 Electric Residential Load Growth in Kabul City-Afghanistan For 1 Electric Residential Load Growth in Kabul City-Afghanistan for Sustainable Situation A thesis presented to the faculty of the Russ College of Engineering and Technology of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science Mohammad S. Sharifi November 2009 © 2009 Mohammad S. Sharifi. All Rights Reserved. 2 This thesis titled Electric Residential Load Growth in Kabul City-Afghanistan for Sustainable Situation by MOHAMMAD S. SHARIFI has been approved for the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science and the Russ College of Engineering and Technology by __________________________________ Jeffrey J. Giesey Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science _______________________________ Dennis Irwin Dean, Russ College of Engineering and Technology 3 Abstract SHARIFI, MOHAMMAD S., M.S., November 2009, Electrical Engineering Electric Residential Load Growth in Kabul City-Afghanistan for Sustainable Situation (104 pp.) Director of Thesis: Jeffrey J. Giesey Load growth/forecasting have become a significant importance research area to the operation of electricity organizations whether they are governmental or non- governmental entities. It enhances the reliability of the power system and energy efficiency. This thesis presents a study of residential load growth in Kabul City for a sustainable condition. The main stages are the analysis of data and information received from the semi-structured interview with authorities at the Ministry of Energy and Water, De Afghanistan Brishna Mossessa (DABM), power companies involved in distribution system, household drop-off survey, 30-min kWh demand data, and the historical data received from DABM. Eventually, it was found how much power does a customer consumes now and an appliance-based approach was initiated to investigate the kWh will be consumed by a residential customer on sustainable condition. Consequently, these results determine the number of customers to be connected to distribution transformers. Approved: __________________________________________________ Jeffrey J. Giesey Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 4 Acknowledgements As this thesis work goes essentially into its end, I am thrilled to extend my sincere and appreciation to my thesis advisor Dr. Jeffrey J. Giesey for his continued and generous support, help, and guidance through these years. I would also like to thank my thesis committee members, Dr. Savas Kaya, Dr. Wojciech M. Jadwisienczak, and Dr. Xiaoping Shen for their kind support. I have always believed that education is the foundation for a sustainable development in Afghanistan, and with that in mind I would like to thank all the outstanding professors of Ohio University from whom I have had the privileges to learn. That would be their great contribution for the rehabilitation of the war-torn Afghanistan, as cash injection proved to not be a sustainable solution. I also should thank my friends, collogues, former students, and authorities in Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) and De Afghanistan Brishna Mossesa (DABM) for their endless support and provision of data. They have provided me with data and information I needed. It is also worth to thank Dr. Shad M. Sargand for his benevolent efforts to initiate my program and my sincere thanks to USAID for its financial support through the years of my study. Last but not least, my deepest appreciation to my family, my beloved mom and my dearest brothers. You are the ones who have taken care of my children and have helped me “stretch my dreams” to attain what I always thought to obtain. My three sons and two daughters are also greatly appreciated for their extra measure of patience, love, and support. 5 Table of Contents Page Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ 4 List of Tables ................................................................................................................. 8 List of Figures ................................................................................................................ 9 Chapter 1: Power Development in Afghanistan ...................................................... 10 1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 10 1.2 Overall Power System in Afghanistan ............................................................. 11 1.2.1 Generation ................................................................................................. 11 1.2.2 Transmission Line ..................................................................................... 15 1.2.3 Distribution System ................................................................................... 16 1.2.4 Power Utility in Afghanistan ..................................................................... 17 1.2.5 Rural Electrification .................................................................................. 19 1.3 Power System in Kabul City ............................................................................ 21 1.3.1 Generation ................................................................................................. 21 1.3.2 Transmission Line ..................................................................................... 26 1.3.3 Distribution System in Kabul City ............................................................ 27 1.3.4 Power Utility in Kabul City ....................................................................... 30 1.4 Demand for Electricity ..................................................................................... 31 1.5 Objectives ........................................................................................................ 31 1.6 Outline of the Thesis ........................................................................................ 32 Chapter 2: Power System Load and Load Forecasting ............................................ 34 2.1 Power System Load Models ............................................................................ 35 2.1.1 Static Load Models .................................................................................... 36 2.1.2 Dynamic Load Model ................................................................................ 38 2.2 Load Forecasting .............................................................................................. 41 2.2.1 Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) ....................................................... 41 2.2.2 Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting (MTLF/LTLF) ...................... 42 6 2.3 Factors Affecting Load .................................................................................... 43 2.3.1 Weather Factor .......................................................................................... 43 2.3.2 Time Factor................................................................................................ 43 2.3.3 Customer Class Factor ............................................................................... 44 2.3.4 Economical Factors ................................................................................... 46 2.4 Load Forecasting Method ................................................................................ 46 2.5 An Overview of Distribution Systems ............................................................. 47 2.6 Aspects of the Loads ........................................................................................ 51 2.7 Allocation of Load to Distribution Transformers ............................................ 53 2.7.1 Application of Diversity Factor ................................................................. 53 2.7.2 Load Survey Method ................................................................................. 54 2.7.3 Transformer Load Management Method ................................................... 54 2.7.4 Metered Feeder Maximum Demand Method ............................................ 55 Chapter 3: Research Procedures .............................................................................. 56 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 56 3.2 Data Gathering ................................................................................................. 56 3.2.1 Semi-structured Interviews with Relevant Parties..................................... 56 3.2.2 Household Drop-off Survey ...................................................................... 57 3.2.3 Meter-based Survey ................................................................................... 59 3.2.4 Data Received from DABM ...................................................................... 60 Chapter 4: Result ..................................................................................................... 61 4.1 Data Process ..................................................................................................... 61 4.1.1 Results from the Interview with MEW, DABM and Relevant Parties ...... 61 4.1.2 Household Drop-off Survey Result ........................................................... 63 4.1.3 Meter-based Survey Findings .................................................................... 67 4.1.4 Analysis of Data from DABM .................................................................. 73 4.1.5 Appliance-based Approach .......................................................................
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