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Survey Report YouGov / QMUL Survey Results Sample Size: 1048 adults in London Fieldwork: 16th - 19th November 2020 Mayoral Voting Intention Vote in 2019 GE Shaun Sadiq Luisa Siân Mandu Peter Don’t Would Lib Total Other Refused Con Lab Bailey Khan Porritt Berry Reid Gammons know not vote Dem Weighted Sample 1048 183 324 31 60 9 12 16 260 92 60 254 381 118 Unweighted Sample 1048 190 341 33 70 11 15 18 253 69 48 259 392 112 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2-6 16-19 Mar Nov HEADLINE MAYORAL VOTING INTENTION Mayoral Voting Intention - Round 1 [Weighted by likelihood to vote in mayoral election, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused] Shaun Bailey 24 30 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 2 15 Sadiq Khan 49 51 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 81 56 Luisa Porritt - 4 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 20 Siân Berry 7 9 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 12 7 Mandu Reid 1 1 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 Peter Gammons - 2 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 Some other candidate 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 2 1 0 Mayoral Voting Intention - Round 2 [Weighted by likelihood to vote in mayoral election, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused] Shaun Bailey 33 36 100 0 23 6 30 100 0 0 0 48 91 3 18 Sadiq Khan 67 64 0 100 77 94 70 0 100 0 0 52 9 97 82 1 © 2020 YouGov plc. All Rights Reserved www.yougov.co.uk YouGov / QMUL Survey Results Sample Size: 1048 adults in London Fieldwork: 16th - 19th November 2020 EU Ref 2016 Gender Age Social Grade Region Ethnicity Inner Outer Total Remain Leave Male Female 18-24 25-49 50-64 65+ ABC1 C2DE White BME London London Weighted Sample 1048 472 309 516 532 113 556 217 161 618 430 381 667 631 401 Unweighted Sample 1048 534 299 445 603 113 529 222 184 671 377 383 665 702 328 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2-6 16-19 Mar Nov HEADLINE MAYORAL VOTING INTENTION Mayoral Voting Intention - Round 1 [Weighted by likelihood to vote in mayoral election, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused] Shaun Bailey 24 30 14 64 32 27 15 22 39 51 26 37 22 34 34 22 Sadiq Khan 49 51 67 17 50 53 59 59 45 31 56 42 55 49 45 63 Luisa Porritt - 4 5 3 6 3 0 5 4 7 4 5 5 4 5 3 Siân Berry 7 9 11 8 8 11 15 10 8 6 9 9 12 8 10 8 Mandu Reid 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 Peter Gammons - 2 0 4 2 2 5 0 2 3 2 1 1 2 3 0 Some other candidate 3 2 1 3 2 2 5 2 3 0 1 4 3 2 2 3 Mayoral Voting Intention - Round 2 [Weighted by likelihood to vote in mayoral election, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused] Shaun Bailey 33 36 16 80 38 33 21 25 46 62 31 45 26 40 41 25 Sadiq Khan 67 64 84 20 62 67 79 75 54 38 69 55 74 60 59 75 2 © 2020 YouGov plc. All Rights Reserved www.yougov.co.uk Sample Size: 1048 adults in London Fieldwork: 16th - 19th November 2020 Mayoral Voting Intention Vote in 2019 GE Shaun Sadiq Luisa Siân Mandu Peter Don’t Would Lib Total Other Refused Con Lab Bailey Khan Porritt Berry Reid Gammons know not vote Dem Weighted Sample 1048 183 324 31 60 9 12 16 260 92 60 254 381 118 Unweighted Sample 1048 190 341 33 70 11 15 18 253 69 48 259 392 112 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2-6 16-19 Mar Nov In May this year, elections will be held for the post of London Mayor and for London’s Assembly. On a scale of 0 (certain NOT to vote) to 10 (absolutely certain to vote), how likely are you to vote in these elections? 0 – Certain NOT to vote 8 2 1 5 2 9 6 0 3 66 11 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 1 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 1 3 4 1 0 0 5 2 0 4 0 3 3 1 1 1 1 5 7 2 2 8 2 18 0 12 11 10 23 5 4 2 6 3 1 3 2 3 0 0 13 5 1 0 2 4 2 7 6 4 8 7 3 0 16 4 7 1 0 4 6 6 8 7 6 10 18 6 0 0 0 8 0 3 7 9 8 9 8 7 8 12 10 7 0 14 11 0 4 9 8 8 10 – Absolutely certain to vote 52 75 64 43 67 66 67 36 38 8 30 66 59 64 Don’t know 5 1 3 0 2 0 7 9 8 2 25 3 5 2 3 © 2020 YouGov plc. All Rights Reserved www.yougov.co.uk Sample Size: 1048 adults in London Fieldwork: 16th - 19th November 2020 EU Ref 2016 Gender Age Social Grade Region Ethnicity Inner Outer Total Remain Leave Male Female 18-24 25-49 50-64 65+ ABC1 C2DE White BME London London Weighted Sample 1048 472 309 516 532 113 556 217 161 618 430 381 667 631 401 Unweighted Sample 1048 534 299 445 603 113 529 222 184 671 377 383 665 702 328 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2-6 16-19 Mar Nov In May this year, elections will be held for the post of London Mayor and for London’s Assembly. On a scale of 0 (certain NOT to vote) to 10 (absolutely certain to vote), how likely are you to vote in these elections? 0 – Certain NOT to vote 8 2 7 8 9 2 11 7 5 6 11 9 8 9 8 1 1 1 0 1 0 3 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 3 1 0 3 1 0 1 3 2 2 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 1 2 1 2 5 7 5 4 6 7 8 7 5 6 5 9 8 6 5 9 6 3 4 2 2 4 5 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 2 4 7 6 4 6 5 6 5 7 4 4 5 7 5 6 4 9 8 7 9 4 7 7 6 9 6 6 9 5 7 8 7 8 9 8 9 8 7 8 6 7 9 11 8 8 6 8 7 8 10 – Absolutely certain to vote 52 59 60 53 51 48 46 60 62 55 47 53 51 60 39 Don’t know 5 3 6 5 5 16 4 3 2 4 6 4 5 2 8 4 © 2020 YouGov plc. All Rights Reserved www.yougov.co.uk Sample Size: 1048 adults in London Fieldwork: 16th - 19th November 2020 Mayoral Voting Intention Vote in 2019 GE Shaun Sadiq Luisa Siân Mandu Peter Don’t Would Lib Total Other Refused Con Lab Bailey Khan Porritt Berry Reid Gammons know not vote Dem Weighted Sample 1048 183 324 31 60 9 12 16 260 92 60 254 381 118 Unweighted Sample 1048 190 341 33 70 11 15 18 253 69 48 259 392 112 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2-6 16-19 Mar Nov In May 2021, elections will be held for the post of London Mayor. If there were an election tomorrow for Mayor of London, how would you vote? Shaun Bailey – Conservative 14 18 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 2 9 Sadiq Khan – Labour 31 31 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 58 36 Luisa Porritt – Liberal Democrats - 3 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 Siân Berry – Green 5 6 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 4 Mandu Reid – Women’s Equality Party 1 1 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 Peter Gammons – UKIP - 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 Some other candidate 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 2 1 0 Don’t know 22 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 25 20 31 Would not vote 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 4 4 3 Refused 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 3 2 In the Mayoral election you also get a second choice vote. Who would you give your SECOND CHOICE to? [Asked to those who indicated they would vote in the previous question; n=726] Shaun Bailey – Conservative 9 8 19 3 9 3 16 60 0 0 0 1 21 2 2 Sadiq Khan – Labour 19 15 4 19 20 48 31 0 6 0 0 1 5 23 20 Luisa Porritt – Liberal Democrats - 11 9 16 16 11 0 4 0 0 0 0 6 12 32 Siân Berry – Green 19 21 10 35 29 8 26 0 0 0 0 2 8 32 29 Mandu Reid – Women’s Equality Party 3 5 4 5 12 11 0 5 6 0 0 0 3 6 3 Peter Gammons – UKIP - 5 16 0 4 3 0 12 16 0 0 0 15 0 2 Some other candidate 3 4 7 1 3 1 28 7 39 0 0 0 8 2 1 Don’t know 14 17 23 17 5 9 0 6 34 0 0 8 25 16 7 Would not vote 3 4 6 3 2 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 3 2 Refused 10 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 87 1 5 2 5 © 2020 YouGov plc.
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