Hamilton Rapid Transit Preliminary Design and Feasibility Study

Hamilton Rapid Transit Preliminary Design and Feasibility Study A-LINE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL IMPACT REPORT Version: 2.0 Hamilton Rapid Transit Preliminary Design and Feasibility Study A-LINE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL IMPACT REPORT Version: 2.0 February 2012 A-Line Economic Potential Impact CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................... I 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................ 1 Study Purpose ............................................................................................. 2 Report Overview ......................................................................................... 4 2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION ................................................................................. 5 Introduction ............................................................................................... 5 Policy Context Overview ................................................................................ 5 Rapid Transit Network .................................................................................. 8 Definition of Alternatives .............................................................................. 14 3 STUDY APPROACH ...................................................................................... 17 Introduction .............................................................................................. 17 Approach ................................................................................................. 17 Selection of Economic Potential Indicators ........................................................ 18 4 FINANCIAL ACCOUNT .................................................................................. 21 Introduction .............................................................................................. 21 Capital Costs ............................................................................................. 21 Operating & Maintenance Costs ...................................................................... 22 Capital and Operating Savings ........................................................................ 22 Revenues ................................................................................................. 22 Revenue-Cost Ratio ..................................................................................... 23 5 TRANSPORTATION USER ACCOUNT ................................................................. 25 Introduction .............................................................................................. 25 Key inputs and assumptions ........................................................................... 25 Passenger Benefits ...................................................................................... 25 Personal Costs ........................................................................................... 26 Accessibility .............................................................................................. 28 Summary .................................................................................................. 33 6 LAND USE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT ACCOUNT ............................................... 35 Introduction .............................................................................................. 35 Contents A-Line Economic Potential Impact Transport and Urban Development .................................................................. 35 Socio Economic Context ............................................................................... 36 Future growth ........................................................................................... 38 Development Impacts .................................................................................. 43 Land Value Uplift ....................................................................................... 48 Summary .................................................................................................. 56 7 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACCOUNT .............................................................. 57 Supply Side Impacts .................................................................................... 57 Demand Side Impacts .................................................................................. 60 Disruption During Construction ....................................................................... 67 Summary .................................................................................................. 68 8 ENVIRONMENTAL ACCOUNT .......................................................................... 69 Introduction .............................................................................................. 69 Key inputs and assumptions ........................................................................... 69 Emissions ................................................................................................. 70 Energy use ................................................................................................ 71 Summary .................................................................................................. 73 9 SOCIAL AND COMMUNITY ACCOUNT ................................................................ 75 Introduction .............................................................................................. 75 Crime ...................................................................................................... 75 Health ..................................................................................................... 75 Social Need............................................................................................... 76 Summary .................................................................................................. 79 10 SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS .................................................................. 81 Introduction .............................................................................................. 81 Impact Profile ........................................................................................... 81 Net Present Impacts .................................................................................... 81 MAE Summary ............................................................................................ 83 11 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................... 87 Minimum Density ........................................................................................ 99 Development Charges ................................................................................. 100 Project Costs............................................................................................ 109 Contents A-Line Economic Potential Impact Results ...................................................................................................111 FIGURES Figure 1.1 LRT – Lyon, France ............................................................... 2 Figure 1.2 BRT – Nantes, France ............................................................ 3 Figure 2.1 Location of Urban Growth Centres In and Around Hamilton .............. 6 Figure 2.2 Proposed B-L-A-S-T Network ................................................... 9 Figure 2.3 The A-Line Corridor ............................................................. 10 Figure 2.4 A-Line LRT and BRT Option Alignments ..................................... 13 Figure 5.1 Key Destinations along the A-line Corridor ................................. 30 Figure 6.1 2011 Combined Population and Employment Densities ................... 37 Figure 6.2 2011 Demographic Densities of the TAZ Statistical Boundary Areas within the LRT and BRT Catchment Areas .................................. 38 Figure 6.3 2031 Forecast Population Densities along the A-Line Corridor .......... 40 Figure 6.4 2031 Forecast Employment Densities along the A-Line Corridor ........ 41 Figure 6.5 Illustration of Property Market Impacts ..................................... 50 Figure 6.6 Property Market Impact Timing ............................................... 50 Figure 6.7 Current Land Use within the LRT Catchment Area ........................ 53 Figure 6.8 Current Land Use within the BRT Catchment Area ........................ 54 Figure 7.1 Average Weekly Earnings By Industry (2010) ............................... 63 Figure 8.1 Comparative CAC Emission Rates for Bus and Car ......................... 70 Figure 8.2 Change in CAC Emission Costs with Implementation of BRT ............. 71 Figure 9.1 Areas of Social Need ............................................................ 78 Figure 9.2 Overall Ranking of Cumulative Scores for Health, Social and Economic Variables .......................................................................... 78 TABLES Table 1 Summary Land Use and Urban Development Impacts ...................... ii Table 2.1 RT Headway and Travel Times ................................................ 16 Table 3.1 Economic Potential Indicators ................................................ 18 Table 4.1 Total Capital Costs for BRT and LRT (2010 Prices) ........................ 21 Contents A-Line Economic Potential Impact Table 4.2 Revenue-Cost Ratio for BRT and LRT (2010 Prices) ....................... 23 Table 5.1 RT Capacities

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