IOC, IGCP, IHP, MAB, MOST

The Volga Vision

UNESCO’s Interdisciplinary Initiative for the Sustainable Development of the Volga-Caspian Basin Contents 4 Foreword

6 Chapter 1. Introduction

12 Chapter 2. Vision summary

18 Chapter 3. Why a vision, by whom, for whom and how?

24 Chapter 4. Selecting the most characteristic variables and indicators for describing human needs and the environment

34 Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

94 Chapter 6. Drivers and constraints

106 Chapter 7. How the Volga Basin is expected to look: Formulating the goals to be reached in a generation’s time

118 Chapter 8. How to make the envisioned future possible

132 Appendix- Maps, references and list of abbreviations 4 V

Foreword by the Director-General of UNESCO V 5

he present "Volga Vision" concludes based decision-making. UNESCO is ready the first phase of UNESCO's to play a catalytic role: to help stimulate the TInterdisciplinary Initiative for the formulation of new ideas, to promote them Sustainable Development of the Volga- amongst those most responsible for dealing Caspian Basin. This was a joint initiative of with the specific issues involved, and to UNESCO's five international science harness the required political support to programmes (IGCP, IHP, IOC, MAB and apply these ideas in practice. MOST), taking up the challenges of interdisciplinary research. By selecting the UNESCO expects that the Volga Vision will Volga Basin as a pilot case, the five science be used to ensure an open debate aimed at programmes of UNESCO and the finding better and more efficient solutions cooperating Russian scientists and scientific to the problems at stake. In this regard, it institutions have thus ventured to address should be noted that the first phase of complex problems in rapidly changing social UNESCO's Interdisciplinary Initiative has and natural environment. one additional pioneering feature. It attracted sizeable support from SUEZ The Volga Vision is a brief summary of what Environment of France, which not only scientists in the natural and social sciences helped the Initiative to succeed but also perceive as a possible, desirable future in a gave an excellent example of fruitful generation's time. This "realistic dream" is cooperation between UNESCO and the juxtaposed with a description of the present private sector. situation. The Vision is structured according to human-centred, environment- It is my pleasant duty to thank all the related objectives. relevant Russian authorities for their involvement and collaboration. My special This Volga Vision is clearly a first step thanks go to the National Commission of towards having an open, interdisciplinary the Russian Federation for UNESCO for its dialogue and interaction between scientists dedicated support throughout the and responsible policy makers. It seeks to conception and implementation of the first serve as a reference document to initiate phase of this Initiative. In October 2003, the follow-up activities and focused 32nd session of UNESCO's General interdisciplinary research projects. I am Conference adopted the resolution submitted pleased to acknowledge that numerous by the Russian Federation mandating initiatives have already been launched by UNESCO to extend the Initiative in the the international and Russian scientific present biennium to the entire Caspian Sea communities. Basin and to enhance it through the addition of a cultural dimension. I am The Volga Vision exemplifies UNESCO's grateful for this testimony of appreciation role of facilitating the strategic dialogue of UNESCO's efforts and look forward to between the science and policy communities more innovative, interdisciplinary scientific worldwide, thereby assisting the emergence work that will underpin the sustainable of policy-relevant science and evidence- development of this region.

Paris, March 2004

Koïchiro Matsuura Volga Vision V 7

Chapter 1. Introduction 8 V Chapter 1. Introduction

1.1.Background

In October 1999 representatives of UNESCO's intergovernmental environmental programmes, the WMO (World Meteorological Organization), GIWA (Global International Water Assessment ) and the Project Leader of the Russian Federal Programme "Revival of the Volga" met at UNESCO, Paris. At this meeting, they agreed to co-operate in initiating a project for the environmental and human sustainability of the Volga River and Caspian Sea basin.

On 18 May 2001 the Chairs of UNESCO's five scientific programmes (International Geological Correlation Programme [IGCP], the International Hydrological Programme [IHP], the International Oceanographic Commission [IOC], the Man and Biosphere [MAB] programme and Management of Social Transformations [MOST]) noted the deliberations of the October 1999 meeting and welcomed the initiative. The Chairs agreed that UNESCO should take the lead in formulating and launching an interdisciplinary science project for the sustainable development of the Volga- Caspian basin.

A fact-finding mission, with experts from all five science programmes participating was implemented between 20 August and 1 September 2001. Based on the report of this mission, the Steering Group decided at its third session (17-18 October 2001) to pursue the proposed UNESCO Interdisciplinary Initiative for the Sustainable Development of the Volga-Caspian Basin. Volga Vision V 9

to assist in the formulation of 1.2.The Initiative complementary project proposals, based on this Vision, that would be suitable for donor funding. Institutions and scientists (drawn mainly from the basin) have participated in During the last decade, several national and the consultation process and developed new international programmes have been approaches reflecting "real world" launched in the Volga-Caspian basin to environmental, natural resources and social improve ecological and human health, management issues. The vision approach is develop monitoring protocols and improve expected to be transferable as a concept to natural resource management in the basin. other large river basins worldwide. They have been based mainly on state-of- the-art scientific principles, methods and results, within well-defined scientific disciplines. Given the economic, social and cultural 1.3.The Vision importance of the basin for all its riparian countries, the rehabilitation and effective future management of the Volga-Caspian basin are urgent international tasks. Such Sustainable development of river basins an initiative would need to involve necessitates an integrated basin-wide ecological, geological, hydrological, social approach. In a river basin, causes and sciences, and coastal dynamics. effects result from the movement of air, water, people, animals and plants, against a Interdisciplinary, or even multidisciplinary background of climate change, environmental research, is still in its infancy. Scientists deterioration, social transformations and need to be encouraged to break down other major drivers. disciplinary boundaries to explore the potential synergies of doing things together. Integrated management of natural Setting common objectives can be a helpful resources and ecosystems must be based on first step. an interdisciplinary approach, building on established knowledge and setting common It was therefore decided in a planning objectives. meeting held at UNESCO's Paris headquarters in February 2002, that the The interdisciplinary/integrated approach initial goal in the first phase of the proposed to resource management implies public project, would be to prepare a science- participation and involvement of local based Vision for the effective future authorities and representatives of civil management of natural and human society. These features contribute to public systems. The Vision would focus on the acceptance, develop ownership and enhance sustainable development of the Volga basin capacity building, all essential elements of itself, as well as its delta and immediate sustainability. In this sense, the present coastal zone, addressing human well-being Vision is expected to serve as a catalyst for through a better understanding of the a consultation process lasting well beyond people-environment interactions. In this the preparation phase of this document. sense the Volga Vision can also be interpreted as a framework document for The Vision is neither a political document future natural resource management. nor a scientific work, yet some appreciation of both is useful in understanding its aim. It While this Vision aims to develop has been written by scientists, but with interdisciplinary approaches to tackling policy- and decision-makers as the primary complex problems, UNESCO also expects audience. 10 V Chapter 1. Introduction

Politics in a pluralistic society such as the one now developing in the Russian Federation means 1.4.Phase 1 of the participation of all stakeholders as much in the decision-making process as in the Initiative implementation phase. Consequently the term "policy maker" does not only cover elected representatives of the legislative and in the executive branches of government In order to implement the "Vision" phase of but basically all those who are interested in the Initiative, UNESCO established a Volga the future of the Volga basin. Task Force within the UNESCO Secretariat, with representatives of all five The scope of this report is limited to the aforementioned intergovernmental programmes Volga basin proper; it is human-centred, as well as the UNESCO Moscow Office. and based on interdisciplinary science, yet it is acknowledged that even within this A UNESCO Scientific Advisory Committee for the Vision was also established. It is defined domain the emphasis is on composed of the representatives of the natural/environmental sciences and on the Russian National Committees of the five social components. Without strong intergovernmental programmes of economic development and restructuring, UNESCO, the UNESCO Chair in Nizhny the Volga Vision may remain theoretical, Novgorod, representatives of federal yet economics continues to be treated as an ministries and both chambers of the "externality" as regards the environmental Parliament of the Russian Federation, status of the basin. Due to the large spatial governors and the representative of the scale of the watershed, the Vision puts presidential administration from the basin. strong emphasis on hydrological sciences, Five international experts were also water resources management and aquatic appointed by the Director General of ecology. After all, the movement of water UNESCO. determines fluxes of material within the basin and its output to the sea. Water is the The UNESCO Initiative was formally unifying agent, overriding artificial administrative launched at the 4th Great Rivers Forum demarcations. held in May 2002. The proposed Volga Vision was presented there, and its concept and scope discussed. The Forum served as an important milestone in the development of the Vision.

Following the request of the Russian Federation, and backed by several riparian countries of the Caspian Sea, it was resolved at the 32nd General Conference of UNESCO in October 2003 to extend the project to the end of 2005, with the second phase covering the entire Caspian basin. In addition, The Great Volga Route project, celebrating one thousand years of Kazan, Tatarstan and Russian history, was integrated into the UNESCO Interdisciplinary Initiative to provide an appropriate cultural dimension. Volga Vision V 11

The basic information came from 1.5.Acknowledge- contributions of a working group of mostly young Russian scientists, that was ments established by UNESCO with the help of the Commission of the Russian Federation for UNESCO and the UNESCO Chair in Nizhny Novgorod, headed by Mr. V.V. This publication is a UNESCO document Naidenko. The members are Jeanna and has no identifiable author. The Balishnikova, Elena Lazareva, Svetlana responsible entity within the UNESCO Morzhukhina, Elena Nikitina, Evgeni Secretariat was the Volga Task Force Nikolsky, Andrei Chechin, Oleg Kaschenko, mentioned above. Mr. Janos Bogardi, at Elena Ostrovskaya, Igor Petrov, Vladimir that time, from the Water Sciences Division Savin, Alexander Sergunin and Olga and IHP served as Coordinator of the Volga Voronina. Vision and, with the help of two retired UNESCO Staff members, Mr. Vefa These contributions were considerably Moustafaev and Mr. Frits Verhoog, shortened and put together in a coherent organized the project. Mr. Iouri Oliounine, a framework by Frits Verhoog. The text was retired staff member of UNESCO-IOC also further prepared with comments and inputs participated in many of the meetings. from UNESCO staff, including Uli Graebener from the Moscow Office, and Janos Bogardi. Ms. Sabine Perruzeau cooperated in the early stages of the Vision preparation and Ms. Annuka Lipponen became involved at the end of 2003.

Throughout the preparation process, valuable comments and suggestions were received from Advisory Committee members, particularly W. Cosgrove, V.V. Naidenko, Irina Springuel and Daniel Suman. Volga Vision V 13

Chapter 2. Vision Summary 14 V Chapter 2. Vision Summary

twenty-page Executive Summary of the Volga Vision is available as a Aseparate document. A diagram at the end of the summary presents the conceptual framework of the vision.

When UNESCO was approached about its possible interest in supporting and incorporating an international project concerning the Volga-Caspian basin, it sought first to determine the initiative's objectives through a long-term vision that would ensure the project was related to meeting people-centred needs and aspirations. As the Volga River runs into the Caspian Sea and not the other way round, it was decided to deal first with the Volga River itself.

The idea of shaping objectives through a vision exercise that could offer a realistic view of the situation in a generation's time, was adopted very quickly. A vision sees the future as something that depends on the will of the local population rather than external forces, historical necessity or an extrapolation of the past.

The objectives chosen are basic and human- centred: what people everywhere want for themselves and their children - health, good nutrition, security, shelter, an interesting and sustainable environment, and favorable socio-economic conditions. Although there are also other human aspirations, only those related to the physical environment have been taken into account at this stage

If the vision is to be realistic it would be counter-productive to set expectations too high. For that reason the present situation and existing conditions must be very well understood. It is not necessary to have detailed or comprehensive scientific information; nevertheless the assessment and message should reflect the truth. Volga Vision V 15

Very briefly, the situation in the basin can decisions are taken to accompany the be described as follows: the health of the change. The global economy can also have population is fairly poor, and drinking water a positive or a negative impact on the is not always of good quality. In several cities economy of the Volga basin. there is occasionally too much air pollution; many people do not have sufficient food to Technological change is in principle usually eat. Urban infrastructures such as drinking a positive factor because one can choose to water supply systems, sewerage networks accept it or not. Other factors such as and urban waste management systems, are political and social processes, including in need of renewal, and a large part of the education and the pursuit of knowledge, population lives in poverty. can also be greatly influenced by the population of the basin. There are many specific situations in the basin were the environmental situation is Targets that take into account all these unacceptable, but overall, the environment factors have been set for each of the desired in the basin, including water quality, is objectives. The targets are not like those better than in Western Europe, although used in economic planning. Rather, they admittedly such things are not easy to indicate the direction that has to be taken compare. A description of current and their value is a measure of the effort conditions is provided in chapter 5. that has to be made to improve the situation. Thus the framework remains Many factors influence the course of events flexible. It is quite possible that a certain - some related to the basin's inhabitants, value be reached already in 2015 instead of and others not. Climate change and 2030 and that is perfectly all right. It may variability are examples of the latter. The also be that a target value is not reached in Vision document states that the impact of 2030 but in 2040. That is also acceptable. climate change can be for better or for worse but an increase in precipitation can The vision of the future in relation to the have positive effects provided the right past can be presented in table form as follows:

Indicators 2000 2030

Health Life expectancy at birth for women 72 77 Life expectancy at birth for men 60 67 Child mortality (under 5 years of age) per 1,000 live births 22 10 % of people in urban areas receiving safe drinking water 50? 90 % of people in rural areas having safe drinking water 30? 60

Nutrition Average number of calories per person per day produced in the basin 2900 3200 Animal product (proteins) consumption in grams per person per day 41 50 Agricultural areas with heavy soil pollution in 1,000 ha 130 70

Security Number of deaths by natural disasters per year, averaged over 5 years 70? 30 Volume of timber lost in forest fires per year in 1,000 cubic metres 100 50

Housing and Settlements Living space in square metres per person in urban areas 19 25 Green open space in urban areas in square metres per person 100 100 % of urban households connected to water supply and sewage systems 85 97 16 V Chapter 2. Vision Summary

Indicators 2000 2030

(Housing and Settlements) % of rural households connected to water supply 22 60 % of urban households connected to usual systems, such as heating, etc. 68 80

Environment Number of endangered species as % of those listed for the year 2000, according to the Red Book 100 100 Specially protected areas in 1,000 km² 43 120 % of river stretches of high enough quality for fish to reproduce 80? 95 Spawning area in Volga Delta in 1,000 ha 525 700 Sturgeon population as % of the year 1990 60? 100 % of cities where waste and wastewater are properly managed 30 80

Social and economic objectives % of people with an income lower than subsistence level 43 20 % of people unemployed or in informal sector 30 10 Part of total income in % received by the poorest quintile of population 4.4 7 Public expenditure for education and science as % of GNP 4.6 7

Other matters Public expenditure for cultural heritage as ratio of that of year 2000 1 3 % of damage to cultural heritage because of environmental factors 50 10

The figures with a question mark indicate uncertainty about the figure and/or how to calculate it.

The objective for approximately 2030 is to Of particular importance is the need for have a safe, sustainable and stimulating financial resources. It can not be expected environment for healthy, and relatively that these resources will be made available prosperous inhabitants of the Volga basin. from outside the basin; thus they have to be generated from within - from services, This objective is attainable because the industry and agriculture. However, it must be basin has everything that is required for understood by scientists, managers and law- meeting it: the necessary natural and energy makers alike that such activities will be resources, sufficient water and a well- accompanied by the production of waste. At educated population. present environmental standards in the Volga basin are even tougher than international However, some changes will be necessary to ones, which probably makes them unrealistic. bring about the right conditions for a better future, and these are indicated in the For regulations and norms to work, they are conceptual framework scheme at the end of best established in cooperation with this chapter. They include: the willingness industry becoming stricter only gradually. of society to bear the costs and to do the But as the potential for economic growth in work, the knowledge and know-how to the basin is considered to be high, the tackle the basin's problems, the availability growing economy could reasonably be of financial resources, material and expected to finance the environmental clean-up. equipment, the establishment of rules and procedures of management (legal The knowledge and know-how to tackle the framework, governance), a commitment to problems are, in principle at least, present in protect nature and the resource base, and the basin. But there are many gaps in the adoption of a conducive social attitude knowledge due primarily to diminished (ownership, responsibility). funding for environmental monitoring and Volga Vision V 17

research since 1990. The necessary While the reasons may have been resources have again to be made available understandable in the past, today they have as good environmental management is not become counter-productive for science itself possible without adequate information. and for society as a whole. Scientists are to become aware of their societal Another consideration is that the responsibilities and make their data and knowledge presented by scientists is very information transparent and policy- often difficult to use in decision-making. relevant.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF THE VOLGA VISION

STATE OF THE BASIN IN A NECESSARY CHANGES THROUGH GENERATION'S TIME

Z Willingness of society to bear the costs Set of targeted values of the human and to do the work centred objectives: Z Knowledge & know-how to tackle the problems Z Health Z Financial resources made available Z Nutrition Z Availability of materials & equipment Z Human & environmental Security Z Rules & procedures of management Z Housing & settlements (legal framework, governance) Z Environment Z Protection of nature and the resource Z Social & economic objectives base Z Adoption of a conducive social attitude (ownership, responsibility)

DRIVERS OF CHANGE PRESENT STATE OF THE BASIN Z Climatic change & variability Set of actual values of the Z Globalization human centred objectives: Z Political & social processes Health, Nutrition, Security, Z Technological change Housing, Environment, Z Scientific knowledge & its Socio-economic objectives, use and related matters such a culture and science Volga Vision V 19

Chapter 3. Why a vision, by whom, for whom and how? 20 V Chapter 3. Why a vision, by whom, for whom and how?

A Vision is also a kind of assessment. There are two main possible purposes of an assessment: one describes how a system functions and the other sees to what extent a system works according to expectations. Obviously the Volga-Caspian project should not only be a description of how the system works. More useful and challenging is an assessment that strives to see whether the system works satisfactorily and is producing a desired situation. But to accomplish this goal, it is first necessary to describe what 3.1.Why a vision? the desired situation is. The purpose of a vision is to arrive collectively at an idea and description of a realistic desirable future, which would give A vision is a practical picture of a desirable the initial momentum to the development future. Thus it is an image of a future that of strategies and plans to move towards the can be achieved and is worth achieving. Just desirable situation. It would also give as thought may stir action, a vision may indications as to what knowledge is needed generate our world. A vision can contribute for improving the situation. A vision is to trends, as well as respond to them. It can therefore useful for guiding focused create new trends we want and prevent scientific research. those we don't. A vision provides a sense of mission and an enduring foundation for A vision, or at least its main objectives, strategies and actions. should remain valid for a long time. Consequently the vision should concern Planning from a vision requires a different basic human aspirations. It would be of no mindset to planning from today to use going into technical details in a vision as tomorrow. Planning from a vision demands these would be obsolete anyway in a working backward from it, before making decade's time. strategies. A vision concentrates on "where we want to be" as a starting point rather A vision is by definition somewhat vague, as than concentrating on "where we are". it refers to a future set approximately in a Therefore it helps to identify the changes generation's time, but it is best to relate it needed to make this future possible. to quantifiable parameters, so that progress may be measured. This not only permits Defining a vision as "where we want to be" more realistic planning at a later stage, but immediately raises the question about which also increases confidence in the ultimate changes in attitudes and approaches are success of the endeavour and keeps the required to accomplish what is expressed in objective clear and visible. Furthermore it the vision. These necessary changes are allows accountability. represented through specific goals, which in turn form the basis of strategies. Plans, the An additional idea of this vision is that it roadmaps on "how to get there", are based should facilitate the conception of research on these strategies. Schematically, the projects in the Volga basin in the fields of sequential process could be given as follows: the five intergovernmental science programmes of UNESCO.

vision>changes>goals>strategies A vision of a future situation is always built >plans>actions on knowledge of the present. However, Volga Vision V 21

limitations of availability and reliability of detailed data must be accepted for the 3.2.Choosing the time-being. As a vision describes a desired future situation, vision building is very human-centred different from scenario building, where a possible future is projected by fixing certain objectives parameter values at an assumed level. A scenario ultimately reflects the "when if" situation in case the estimated parameter value becomes reality. The most important things people need or want, are very basic. They are fairly The Russian Federation has been independent of culture and even education undergoing an important change in its levels. Some of these needs are physical and social organization since the early nineties others are more spiritual or social; some can and this process is not yet completed. be directly influenced by government action Consequently, scenarios based on the and others have to be dealt with on a extrapolation of ongoing processes and personal or on a broad social basis. Many present values of parameters would not be needs are the same for all people, whether a useful. child or adult, a woman or man, irrespective of ethnic origin or religious background. The present vision concentrates on the environment of the Volga basin and its It is tempting to try to find a method to inhabitants who are part of the environment, optimize happiness both individually and both dependent on and responsible for it. collectively. Items such as comparative Environment is understood here as the set income distribution, sense of belonging, of physical (including chemical) and opportunities for individual physical and biological surroundings for people. Besides cultural development, gender equity, nature, the Vision also includes the employment, could have been included in constructed environment of buildings, cities the Vision. All these items are very and other human-made structures. important for individuals, but it is not possible to develop a single mathematical Necessary human activities, such as formula that is applicable to the collective industry, urbanization and mineral extraction well-being and happiness of all the people in have strong environmental impacts. They a region. are mentioned in the Vision, but this document does not contain a vision of On the other hand, it is possible to identify industrial development. factors, which will contribute to this well- being and which can be directly influenced The Vision has been prepared by scientists by a government's action, irrespective of with significant international experience, the form of government . These tend to be based on material prepared by scientists physical parameters such as: health, from the Volga basin and discussed in nutrition, security, shelter, environment and meetings. However, the vision message wealth, the latter summarizing economic needs to be heard beyond the scientific and social objectives. community. Therefore any scientific objectives must be described and justified in The emphasis on physical aspects does not terms relevant to people and the environment. mean that less tangible matters such as For this reason, the Vision uses a language culture, a sense of belonging, bringing up a and reasoning understandable to all. family, having good marital relations are not important. On the contrary - but the basic factors are more fundamental and possibly easier to address. 22 V Chapter 3. Why a vision, by whom, for whom and how?

This Vision clearly distinguishes between a measure of the amount of natural the description of the desired situation and resources that must be set aside for that the means to achieve that situation. The purpose. Food production requires land, desired situation has been characterized by water, fertilizers, pesticides and the selected indicators based on human aspirations. existence of skilled farmers and herders.

Based on the above reasoning, the Vision Every person requires a certain Security in thus makes use of indicators to describe both the sense of being safe from bodily harm the future and the present situation. The and safe from damage to property or goods, criteria for indicators are that they should be: whether private or public. In an environmental vision this means being as • centred around basic human aspirations; safe as possible from natural hazards and from human-made accidents that are • representative of something real and environment-related. An example of the direct; latter is the Chernobyl nuclear accident. The particular natural hazards that • valid for and understandable by all people; sometimes become disasters in the Volga basin include: floods, droughts, extreme cold • subject to verification; and warm spells and forest or peat fires.

• present even after twenty-five or thirty In the Volga basin, proper shelter from the years (one generation's time); and weather is a must, and people have built houses and apartments, places to work and • related to the environment, or dependent to meet, referred to as Housing and at least partially on environmental settlements in this document. The fact that conditions. one has to live in winter in a protected environment underlines the need for In this document the most basic sufficient living space. A large majority of requirements of individuals have been people in the Volga basin live in urban grouped under the headings: Health, environments. There are many reasons, but Nutrition, Security, Housing and settlements, one of the most important is economic. Environment, and Social and economic objectives. Living together requires a complex infrastructure of buildings, roads and other Health is defined as optimal well-being. It communication means, all of which requires requires of course a functioning health space. The basic needs of people in the system, but for an environment related settlements have to be met through vision it implies in the first place the organized services such as water supply. absence of illnesses due to insufficient or Because urban populations live close unhealthy food, polluted air, unsafe together in an artificial environment, there drinking water, unsuitable living conditions is also a need for recreation in semi-natural and contact with dangerous substances, and natural environments. whether produced by industry, agriculture or any other source. Human settlements require land, water, energy and building materials. They disturb Nutrition stands for sufficient food with the the natural hydrological cycle by making necessary variety and of adequate quality. It large surfaces impermeable and they pollute is assumed that in principle the Volga basin through wastewater discharge, municipal should be able to produce its own food. This solid waste and emissions of polluted air. is not an absolute requirement as food can Human settlements further impact on the also be imported. But the capacity to environment through the large number of produce within the basin itself the necessary people occasionally disturbing the natural vegetable and animal calories provides some environment. Volga Vision V 23

Energy is essential in meeting many Wealth is a basic human need if one defines requirements of people in a modern society. wealth as having sufficient means to Despite its significance to the Economic and participate actively in economic and social social objectives, energy is discussed under life. It therefore refers to the concept of Housing and settlements because of its socio-economics and also quality of life. relation to a very basic human need, namely Normally Economic and social objectives that of heating in winter. include many social and psychological aspects and even questions related to the A sustainable Environment is considered organization of society. here as a basic human need, because it is related to people's wish to give their Only a functioning economy that produces children and grandchildren a good world to wealth can provide employment and live in. People need a good environment to sufficient resources to eliminate poverty, remain healthy and to be able to continue to improve the income distribution and even benefit from it. But there is more than this improve environmental conditions. In order utilitarian aspect: People also want a to have a healthy economy, nature will stimulating environment. probably have to be disturbed. Disturbance can and should be limited, but it cannot be Here, clearly, the reasoning is based both on completely avoided. what people need, and what people think the environment should look like. The main The other aspects relevant in the Volga idea in the vision is to show that there is not Vision concern Education and Science and necessarily a conflict between the needs of Cultural heritage. Education and science people and the needs of flora and fauna. are discussed because these two factors influence both how people relate to the In this Vision, the environment of the Volga environment and the capacity to solve basin is the main subject as well as a special problems that originate from human item. It covers ecosystems, biodiversity, impacts on the environment. Cultural water availability and quality , the negative heritage is discussed primarily as a set of impacts of human activities on ecosystems, buildings, monuments, sites and landscapes and the emissions of greenhouse gases. that need to be protected against pollution River water quality receives special or natural processes such as floods. attention as the rivers are the main recipients of all pollution. All river water in Factors from outside the basin such as the Volga system eventually ends up in the global change, climate change and Volga Delta and the coastal zone in the variability, environmental and technological Caspian Sea. Therefore the Delta is change, globalization and internal factors described separately as a special case study, such as social and political processes because it links the Volga basin and the influence the economy and the environment Caspian Sea. and hence have to be taken into account. These will be discussed primarily in their relation to the physical aspects of the environment. Volga Vision V 25

Chapter 4. Selecting the most characteristic variables and variables and indicators for describing human needs and the environment 26 V Chapter 4. Selecting the most characteristic variables and variables and indicators for describing human needs and the environment

4.2.Choosing indica- tors for the dif- ferent human- centred objec- 4.1.Background and tives explanation 4.2.1. Health

Health is defined as optimal well-being. For This chapter discusses the choice of the an environment-related vision this implies in human-centred objectives and indicators the first place the absence of illnesses due to used to describe the present situation and insufficient and/or unhealthy food, air the possible future. In certain cases pollution, unwholesome drinking water, secondary objectives and associated unsuitable living conditions and contact indicators have been used in order to better with dangerous substances. characterize the needs and the desired state of achievements. A good measure would be the number of days people are absent from school or work In most cases the indicators presented in due to environment-related illnesses. These this document will not cover the whole data are, however, not widely available. scope of the objective they represent as data may be lacking, or the phenomenon The most practical indicators for the health cannot be measured objectively. An of the population are: "life expectancy at indicator is a figure or sign that shows how birth" and "child mortality". Of these two, close the goal is to being achieved. For child mortality is probably the most example the goal may be good health and accurate indicator for water supply and the indicator could be "life expectancy at food because it refers to the most vulnerable birth". Life expectancy does not describe population group. Likewise, air pollution health in all its aspects, but if the health of and unhealthy food most seriously affect the the population improves, life expectancy weakest - namely children and old people. will also increase. Life expectancy, or a related indicator such In the descriptions under the different as the percentage of men and women who objectives, the secondary objectives survive beyond the age of sixty-five, is (variables) are underlined and the indicators dependent on many factors that have finally retained are given in italics. practically nothing to do with the environment. Examples are alcoholism, smoking, AIDS, accidents, the state of medical services etc. Environmental pollution is only one of the factors and probably not even the most important one for the Volga basin as a whole. Still, if one wants to increase the life expectancy one must also improve habitat, limit dangerous pollution and generally sustain a healthy environment for humans. Volga Vision V 27

A healthy environment is a necessary but In general it is difficult to ascribe a single not sufficient precondition to improve life cause to mortality, or expressed in another expectancy. In this vision the environmental way, healthy people do not die suddenly framework serves the purpose of improving from bad air quality, except in extreme life expectancy without an attempt to circumstances. Weak people, in particular quantify the contribution of the those who already have a respiratory environmental factors. Budget planning is problem, die quicker when there is a period another matter, as it may sometimes be of poor air quality. According to WHO, better to spend money on the medical 81 percent of deaths attributable to air infrastructure than on the environment. quality worldwide occur in people over the age of sixty. A descriptive indicator would Child mortality, defined as the number of be an increase in mortality during periods of deaths of children under the age of five per heavy pollution, should such data be 1,000 births, is closely related to the available. mother's level of education, the availability and affordability of medical care, nutrition Data on the effects of air pollution, suitable and especially the quality of drinking water. for a general indicator for air pollution in the The level of education is uniform in the Volga basin, were unavailable. Data exist on region and better than in most other total air emissions from stationary sources countries. Malnutrition is certainly an and transport for different pollutants such aggravating factor in some areas and for as carbon dioxide, solid particles, etc. There people living in poverty. Child mortality is are also figures for the percentage of air highly dependent on the quality of drinking discharges captured or purified. water. Infant mortality, that is the mortality of children under the age of one, is a Air pollution is being measured in several powerful indicator of maternal education, cities in the Volga basin and results are including pre-natal preparation, and the available as maps showing quality distribution availability and affordability of medical or as annual averages, but the latter are not care. A primary objective of safe water very useful for evaluating health impacts. supply should be to lower child mortality. Food quality is defined in this report as the Drinking water quality is determined by absence of harmful substances such as many factors. There are not many heavy metals, pesticide residue or harmful substances of immediate danger, but organisms like illness causing bacteria. several years' exposure to lead or mercury Again, an ideal indicator would be the can, for example, have serious number of cases of food poisoning and their consequences. On the other hand, the seriousness. However, no monitoring occurrence of pathogens that cause information seems to be available. The waterborne diseases will have immediate percentage of samples that do not meet the and serious consequences. This results from standards in the regular Russian food the microbiological pollution of drinking control sampling is the best available water but can be avoided through good indicator for food quality. water purification and adequate water distribution systems.

The best possible indicator for air pollution 4.2.2. Nutrition would be the occurrence of illnesses, and mortality. Relevant data are, however, not Sufficient and good food are essential for generally available. Data on the occurrence good health. One indicator could be the of respiratory diseases exist for several percentage of people that are undernourished. cities, but these illnesses are also related to Life expectancy at birth as a specific the quality of air indoors. indicator for nutrition is not adequate due to the number of other contributing factors. 28 V Chapter 4. Selecting the most characteristic variables and variables and indicators for describing human needs and the environment

The number of daily calories, and what form the environment since 1990, but will not be these take, individuals need on average to applicable in future if agriculture in the sustain a healthy and active life differ basin modernizes. The use of very little globally somewhat according to climate and pesticide at the right periods on most culture. In general, for the Volga basin's agricultural lands could be better for the climate, it is estimated that 3,200 calories environment than misuse on a small are needed per adult per day. If the average percentage of land. figure in the Volga basin is substantially lower, it means that a large part of the The indicator hectares that are subject to population gets much less. The average the application of fertilizer and hectares calorie intake is therefore a good indicator. that are subject to the application of pesticides should be combined with the In the Volga basin, calories are supposed to indicators for productivity and the be produced from vegetable products as application of fertilizer (or pesticides) per cereals and potatoes, and animal products ton of product. The latter data do not seem such as milk and meat. The distribution of to be available. vegetable and animal products is also a simple measure of a well balanced diet, Irrigation is necessary for agricultural albeit less accurate. production in the lower Volga because of the prevailing semi-arid climate. Agricultural Even if there is a sufficient food production production is of particular importance to and availability, there may still be the local population there. The relevant undernourishment through the inability of indicators are number of hectares under some people to buy food. Economic irrigation and the amount of water development is therefore a necessity for withdrawn. ensuring that everybody can afford sufficient food. (Poverty is discussed under Agriculture needs soils, which are an the heading "Economic and social important factor in the sustainability of the objectives"). It is assumed that the basin environment. One good indicator is the can and will grow the required food needed, number of hectares of degraded lands, that even though food could be purchased from is, lands that are no longer suitable for outside the basin. agriculture. A more descriptive parameter would be the annual loss in productivity; Fertilizer and pesticides are both needed to however this is influenced also by many ensure higher land productivity. Although other factors. Soils can be degraded by such there is enough land and good quality water phenomena, as erosion, loss of humus, available in the Russian Federation and no salinization, acidification, rising water market for larger quantities of food, higher tables (underflooding) and desertification., agricultural productivity is needed to make often caused by humans. food affordable to the population and agriculture profitable for the rural population. The appropriate use of fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture 4.2.3. Human & environmental should therefore not be ruled out. Both fertilizer and pesticide applications have an security impact on soil and water quality and can also affect consumers' health. However, This section focuses on the main with appropriate practices these negative environmental aspects of security as related impacts can be minimized. to natural and human-made disasters.

The number of hectares subject to the A natural disaster according to the ISDR application of fertilizer and pesticides is a (International Strategy for Natural Disaster reasonably good indicator for the impact on Reduction) is the result of the impact of Volga Vision V 29

natural hazards on a socio-economic system many people died from floods for example. with a given level of vulnerability, which The indicated number of affected people by prevents the affected society from coping natural disasters seems to be very low in the adequately with the negative impacts of an official data. extreme event. A disaster is usually defined as a serious disruption of the functioning of International databases can be helpful in society, causing widespread human, getting a better idea of the situation,. This material, or environmental losses that information is certainly not complete either, exceed the ability of the affected society to but it seems to be the best available source. cope using its own resources. A special natural hazard is the wild fire, According to existing Russian national including both forest and peat fires. The standards, a natural disaster is a large-scale indicators are here simply the volume of destructive natural hazard or creeping timber lost and the area of land affected. natural process resulting in threats to life or Adequate data are available. human health, in destruction of material property and environment; an emergency is a situation when normal conditions for human existence and activities are 4.2.4. Housing & settlements breached, a threat to human lives and health, and damage to material property, Housing (houses and apartments) has many economy and environment occur, and characteristics that could be used as emergency responses aimed to reduce risk indicators. The most obvious and measurable are required. is the available living space per person, available for each oblast and city. It is likely Technological disasters include transport that these data are based on design data accidents, accidents related to pipelines, from long ago and have been adjusted infrastructure, heating systems, fires and according to the number of people. There explosions at industrial facilities and are apparently no data on the quality of the households, emergencies at chemical plants, houses and their replacement rate. radiation emergencies, accidental collapses of buildings and other structures. An important quality aspect of housing is the number and quality of the services it is The most powerful indicators for disasters connected to. Data exist for the percentages would be the resulting number of deaths, of connections to water supply, sewage, number of people injured, number of people central heating, gas and hot water supply. affected, damage inflicted and financial Good data also exists for the number of costs. However, reliable methodologies for connections . systematic assessments of damage in monetary terms are still to be developed in An important quality aspect of living in an the Russian Federation, and this also urban environment is the availability of influences the accuracy of figures about the green space. It can be expressed in square number of people affected. The figures metres of green space per inhabitant. available reflect only government intervention, and not the total picture. Only electric power is dealt with in this sub- chapter as it is one of the most practical Data exist for the number of natural forms of energy in an urban environment. disasters, the number of technological Electricity is produced using coal, peat, oil, disasters and the number of bio-medical gas, by nuclear power plants or through disasters, but the number of deaths and hydropower. Good data exist for production people affected is only given for all figures, differentiated by source. Indices emergencies together. It is therefore not that are often used are the amount of possible to find from the official data how electricity produced per person and the 30 V Chapter 4. Selecting the most characteristic variables and variables and indicators for describing human needs and the environment

amount of electric energy produced per 4.2.5. Environment GNP per person. This latter indicator measures how efficiently energy is used and It is generally accepted that a healthy thus shows what savings could be made. environment should be sustainable and that biodiversity is an important aspect of it. The burning of peat, coal, gas and oil gives The difficulty is in defining clearly what is rise to air pollution. Even natural gas firing meant by sustainability and what society produces greenhouse gases. Nuclear power considers a healthy environment. plants may be subject to accidents with serious consequences and have problems Healthy ecosystems are an important with the disposal of waste products. aspect of the environment. Biodiversity, the Hydropower does not lead to pollution, but most suitable indicator, can most simply be the necessary constructions do impact the river. measured by counting the number of There is clearly a hierarchy in environmental species. Due to the abundance of species cost associated with energy production. and the fact that new ones are discovered every year, some species, considered The important factors with respect to the representative of ecosystem health, have environment are that energy is needed and been singled out for special prominence. For that it should be produced with minimum terrestrial ecosystems, the number of adverse environmental impact. Indicators species of mammals and the number of bird used here are therefore related to species have been selected. For aquatic production and efficiency. A good indicator ecosystems, the number of fish species has would be the ratio between production of been selected. As an overall indicator for the energy and emission of air pollutants. whole basin, the Russian Red Book of Specific air pollutants that have been endangered species is probably the most chosen as indicators of energy pollution are reliable measure of biodiversity. The sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter. number of species that are on the endangered list would be an appropriate The most serious pollutants from indicator, with the idea that no new species automobile traffic are lead and nitrogen would have to be added to the list. oxide (NOx). The number of cities that have decided to stop using leaded gasoline Protection of ecosystems and safeguarding could serve as the indicator for lead (with of biodiversity can be done in different the aim that in thirty years' time, it not be ways. One of these is the setting aside of used at all). The number of cities that have areas where human impact is absent or already stopped using leaded gasoline and negligible. These are the specially protected the rate of enforcement are not yet known. areas. There are many such areas in the Russian Federation and they are classified Accidents in the conventional energy according to different categories. Internationally, production field that affect the environment IUCN has established categories I to VI, but have a particular impact on air, soils, the available international data for the surface and groundwater. Such accidents Russian Federation are for categories I to IV are caused by leaks from gas and oil only. For the Volga basin the number of pipelines and spills due to transport hectares and the percentage of total accidents. In chapter 5, the number of protected area have been selected as accidents since 1990 is given: they are indicators. unsuitable as indicators due to their infrequent occurrence. It is reported that A large part of the Volga basin, especially in breaks in oil pipelines do occur frequently, the northern part, is covered by forest. Wise and an interesting indicator would be the and environmentally sound exploitation of amount of oil spilled per year due to pipeline forests for wood is important, but there incidents. However the corresponding data does not seem to be a simple indicator to about these accidents are not available. measure this. The only indicator used here Volga Vision V 31

is the percentage of forest over the total exceptional cases very strict quality area. requirements, but in general the strictest requirements are for drinking water Water availability is also an important production. socio-economic factor. A general indicator very often used for water availability in a The best water quality indicators would be country or region is the amount of water in those related to a basic human need such as cubic metres per person. As this is a high drinking water. However, the only figure for the Volga basin there is certainly comprehensive information on river water no need to bring water from elsewhere into quality in the basin is given by the State the basin. This indicator is of little interest, Hydrometeorological Service in the form of particularly because irrigation is only classifications: moderately polluted, polluted practiced in the downstream part of the and highly polluted length of river courses. river. The percentage of the amount of The percentages add up to 100 percent, water taken out of the river (withdrawal) by implying that there are no river reaches that the economic sectors is potentially a more are not polluted. It is not explicitly useful indicator. Most of this water is explained in the available publications how returned to the river in a more or less these water quality classes are determined. polluted state. Another part of the water is lost for the river as evaporation for example Using such terms as healthy ecosystem, through irrigation and through cooling healthy river or healthy person does not towers. imply that everything is absolutely perfect and problem-free. Rather, it indicates that The amount of water consumed in the basin negative impacts can be absorbed and per year is the difference between the coped with within a reasonably short period. amount of water withdrawn and returned to Hence, in order to determine if a river is the river. healthy it has to be stated what conditions are acceptable. It is clear that while a The distribution of the river flow going into mountain river and a low-land river have the delta is important for the preservation different characteristics they can both be of the wetland ecosystem in the Volga Delta healthy. It is unreasonable to declare a river and the nearby coastal zone. The river as unhealthy just because it is not fit for discharge is partially determined by the drinking, especially if it flows through an operation of upstream reservoirs. The industrialized area. If the only source of percentage of annual flow going into the drinking water for the local population is delta in spring can be used as an indicator, river water, it must be of such quality that as this flow rate is a determinant for fish with affordable means it is possible to reproduction. produce from it good quality drinking water.

Most pollution tends to end up in rivers, if it A good indicator would be the absence of is not forever stored in the soil or harmful products in the river water that groundwater. Water quality thus gives a could not be removed by water purification good idea of the health of the environment plants to the level of the standards for as a whole. Water quality is a function of drinking water quality at an acceptable the amount of water in the natural system, cost. Other indicators could be the the pollution going into the watercourse concentrations of harmful substances in the and the capacity of the water system to river that cannot be removed by treatment handle the pollutants. or more generally the capacity of the river to provide a possibility for fish to live and River water quality is important for the reproduce normally. aquatic ecosystem as well as for the water users, such as municipalities, industry and The water quality of the river as an agriculture. Industry may have in some ecosystem is often determined by the 32 V Chapter 4. Selecting the most characteristic variables and variables and indicators for describing human needs and the environment

general state which can be characterized by Federation often also from hospitals. Dissolved Oxygen (DO) content and Figures exist for the amount of sludge Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD). Then produced. No data exist with which an follow the concentrations of substances that indicator could be established, as for are harmful to fish. example data on the quality of the sludge and the handling of the remains of the In the Volga-Kama cascade system, the sludge after drying. inflow of nitrogen and phosphorous compounds cause algal blooms in summer. The Kyoto protocol on greenhouse gases A good indicator would be the concentrations has not been signed by the Russian of nitrates and phosphates compounds at Federation. Data exist on the amount of the the period of the year when algal blooms occur. major greenhouse gases. Good indicators are the production of greenhouses gases in In the Volga-Caspian basin comprehensive tons per inhabitant and the production of and comprehensible information on the greenhouse gases in tons per GDP per quality of river water is so scarce that it is inhabitant. practically nonexistent for both interested public and specialists. The health of the Volga Delta has been presented as a special case study because of Waste production is the basis of all its environmental importance and the fact pollution and almost all industrial activities that all river water eventually end up in the are associated with waste production. This Delta. One can argue that if the delta is waste could be treated and made harmless healthy, the water quality cannot be very by the producer of the waste. The bad upstream. As an indicator, the area in percentage of waste that is recycled or hectares of spawning has been selected. made harmless is a good indicator and data Good data are available. The importance of are available for industry, agriculture, the indicator is that it is physically visible; it transport and municipal activities. depends on many factors, including erosion and sedimentation, and also that people can Hazardous solid waste that is not treated at in a certain way and within certain limits, the source is then dumped at legal and influence the extent of the spawning areas. illegal dump sites. If waste is stored under controlled circumstances it can be considered as having become harmless. A good indicator would be the percentage of 4.2.6. Economic and social dumped waste that is stored under controlled circumstances. objectives

There are data on the amount of A preference is given to the standard wastewater by industry These data do not international indicators as used in UNDP's contain information about the concentration Human Development Report. of pollutants and thus the amount of hazardous substances cannot be known. For For the general situation, GDP per capita this reason, the "volume of wastewater" and GDP per unit of energy can be used. In becomes meaningless as an indicator. order to develop an idea of the situation, several other information items have been Sewage sludge that remains after treatment selected that describe the general socio- of waste water can be divided into economic situation. municipal, industrial and bio-medical sludge. Most sludge is produced by Concerning incomes, data on the average municipal waste water treatment plants, incomes in the Volga region and the ratios which receive the waste from the between average income and subsistence population, the industry and in the Russian level income have been used. Volga Vision V 33

In all countries there is unequal distribution costs from regular maintenance or of incomes. One set of indicators is used to restoration of cultural heritage sites and show the distribution of total national monuments. income according to five income groups ranging from the top 20 percent to the poorest 20 percent. The other, the GINI index, uses only a single indicator for 4.3.2.. Education and science income discrepancies. Even though the efficiency and allocation of For poverty, the indicator used is the public expenditure on education vary, the percentage of people that have incomes total amount can be taken as a rough below the subsistence level, currently set at measure of a society's general wealth and 60 US$ a month. Other figures given relate investment in building human capacity. to the percentage of undernourished people, Consistent, strategic investment into children under weight and height for their research and development creates business age, and infants with low birth weights. opportunities and at its best improves a Another powerful indicator is the society's competitiveness. Indicators used occurrence of tuberculosis. include the percentage of the government budgets devoted to respectively education Unemployment is in most cases one of the and research and development main causes of poverty. The number of people officially declared as unemployed is The other usual indicators for education used as indicator. This is not always a such as literacy rate, enrolment of children reliable indicator, because people may not in elementary and secondary schools, etc register as unemployed. Therefore the are of less interest because the level of estimated figures for informal employment education is already very high. If the are also given. government, federal and local, will devote sufficient funds to education and science, then it can be expected that the level will remain high. 4.3.Some indicators for related sub- jects

4.3.1. Cultural heritage

Indicators should focus on the relation of actual heritage with the environment. An important indicator is the percentage of monuments that are under negative environmental conditions, such as flooding or air pollution.

Additional data on how much funding will be required to repair the consequences of negative environmental impacts would be useful, but it is difficult to separate these Volga Vision V 35

Chapter 5. Description of the present situation 36 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

impacted the streamflow, the water quality, the fish productivity and biodiversity. Low effectiveness of fish elevators excludes passage of migratory fish to spawning grounds in the Volga upstream of the Volgograd dam. All spawning grounds of the five different migrating sturgeon species, for example, are now downstream of the Volgograd Power Station dam (the 5.1.General descrip- last in the cascade). The Volga basin is shared at least partly by tion thirty-nine oblasts (or districts) in the Russian Federation and two oblasts in Kazakhstan (Map 5-1. Annex, p.134). There are 444 towns located in the Volga The Volga River is the largest river system basin area and 57 million people of various in Europe. It springs in the Valday hills nationalities live there. The basin includes northwest of Moscow at a height of the country's most densely populated and 256 metres and flows 3,700 km towards the industrialized regions including the capital, Caspian Sea to a level of 28 metres below Moscow. There are six more cities with sea level. The river is navigable for about populations over a million: Samara, Kazan, 2,600 km. The Volga River basin area covers Ufa, Perm, Nizhny Novgorod and 1.358 million km2 (about 136 million ha). Volgograd. The basin's average population There are more than 200 sizable tributaries density is 42 inhabitants per square km of which many are navigable, including the (thus almost five times higher than the Oka, Samara, Kama and Vetluga. Navigation average for the whole Russian Federation). through the rivers and canals is possible About 80 percent of the population in the between the Baltic, the Caspian and the basin lives in urban areas. Black seas. The mean annual discharge of water at the mouth is 254 km³. At present, the volume of water taken from the Volga for the various economic sectors The annual runoff of the Volga varies is over 30 km3, that is almost 12 percent of considerably; the highest measured annual the Volga's flow. The volume of wastewater runoff of 382 km³ took place in 1926 and discharge constitutes 20 km3 of which only the lowest, 161 km³, in 1937. The Volga 10-15 percent are treated to the legally provides approximately 80 percent of total required standards prior to its release into river discharge into the Caspian Sea, the water bodies. There is large-scale development largest closed water body of the planet. The of oil and gas deposits in the region. Annual Caspian Sea basin extends over 3 million production reaches 80 million tons of crude km2, 47 percent of which is occupied by the oil and about 40 billion m3 of gas. Volga basin. European Russia has more forests than the Over the last seventy years, 716 water rest of Europe together, as well as the reservoirs of over 1 million m3 storage highest percentage of protected forest capacity have been built. They store almost areas. Nearly 23 percent of the Volga basin 70 percent of the mean annual runoff of the is covered by forest - some 32 million ha. Volga basin. There are eleven hydropower stations on the Volga and its major Biodiversity of the Lower Volga region is of tributary, the Kama. The total generating global importance and the delta wetlands capacity of the Volga-Kama cascade is are considered the best conserved in 11,409 MW. The construction of dams, Europe. A part of the Volga Delta is reservoirs and hydropower stations has designated the Astrakhan Biosphere Reserve Volga Vision V 37

and approximately half of the estuary zone zones have been adjusted to coincide with (sea-side) as a Ramsar site. At least fifteen provincial/republic borders. globally endangered bird species are registered in the Lower Volga, where four of the sturgeon species included in the IUCN Red List have spawning and feeding grounds. One salmon species is on the brink of extinction. 5.2.The Objectives For our purposes, the Volga basin has been divided into three zones: the Upper Volga, the Middle Volga and the Lower Volga 5.2.1. Health (Map 5-2. Annex, p.135). The Upper Volga, covering the north and northwestern part of Life expectancy the basin, is identified by its landscape which is more forested and colder than The average lifespan of a population is a elsewhere. The north-eastern part is good indicator of its health. Life expectancy attached to the Middle Volga because it is at birth depends on the living conditions of drained through the Kama River which joins the population combined with the quality of the Volga in its middle reach. The Middle the medical system. Living conditions and Lower Volga zones are differentiated include factors such as nutrition, housing, primarily by their landscape: the former has security, work conditions, environment and lots of rainfed agriculture and the latter is lifestyle. semi-arid steppe. In order to make statistical aggregations easier and also The following tables show that the health of accommodate regional management the Russian population is not good when structures, the demarcations of the three compared to various other countries.

Table 5-1 - Distribution of the regional entities of the Russian Federation within Data for the Russian the primary zones of the Volga basin Federation as a whole have been chosen as Primary Zone Oblast these are more generally available and are The Upper Volga Vologodskaya oblast Smolenskaya oblast comparable to those of Kirovskaya oblast Tverskaya oblast other countries. When Kostromskaya oblast Yaroslavskaya oblast one looks at life Novgorodskaya oblast expectancy data from The Middle Volga Vladimirskaya oblast the Volga basin, one sees Ivanovskaya oblast Resp. Mariy-Al that in about one Kalujskaya oblast Resp. Mordovia quarter of the oblasts life Komi-Permyatsky AO Resp. Tatarstan expectancy is higher Moskovskaya oblast Resp. Udmurtiya than the Russian Nizhegorodskaya oblast Ryazanskaya oblast average, and in one quarter it is lower. Life Orenburgskaya oblast Samarskaya oblast expectancy is lower than Orlovskaya oblast Tambovskaya oblast average in the poorest Penzenskaya oblast Tulskaya oblast regions such as Permskaya oblast Ulyanovskaya oblast Ivanovskaya, Tverskaya, Resp. Bashkortostan Chuvashskaya Resp. Vladimirskaya, and The Lower Volga Astrakhanskaya oblast Novgorodskaya. Vologodskaya oblast Resp. Kalmykiya The table 5-2 shows that Saratovskaya oblast the Russian Federation 38 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

apparent when comparing the figures for Table 5-2 - Comparison of Russian life expectancy with that of selected countries the "Probability of dying between ages 15 and 59 per 1,000 inhabitants" which show Life expectancy at birth (years) that in the Russian Federation, 40 percent of males (and 15 percent of females) die Country 1970-75 1995-2000 between the ages 15 and 59, compared to France 72.4 78.1 28 and 13 percent respectively in Hungary, Hungary 69.3 70.7 and 10 and 7 percent respectively in France. Russian Federation 69.7 66.1 Kazakhstan 64.4 64.1 It is often argued that the high mortality of Ukraine 70.1 68.1 Russian men aged 15 to 59 explains the overall low life expectancy, and that this is Tunisia 55.6 69.5 caused by the unhealthy lifestyle of Russian Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2002 men. While lifestyle factors such as living more dangerously, smoking and drinking Table 5-3 - Comparison of life expectancy of Russian too much alcohol certainly have a large males and females with that of selected countries impact, they can not alone explain the large difference. Young men in other countries Life expectancy at birth in years for men and women also take more risks than women. What Males Females might the explanation be? Country 1978 1998 2000 1978 1998 2000 France 70 74 74 78 82 82 World wide statistics from WHO show that Hungary 66 67 67 73 75 76 the distribution of deaths attributable to Netherlands 72 75 75 79 81 81 addictive substances (smoking, alcohol and Russian Federation 62 61 61 73 73 73 illicit drugs) and occupational risks (injury, Ukraine 64 64 63 74 74 74 carcinogens, airborne particulates) varies United States 69 73 74 77 80 80 greatly between men and women

Source: WHO Health Statistics Table 5-5 shows that cigarette smoking is and the Ukraine are the only countries in heavier in the Netherlands than in the which life expectancy has not increased Russian Federation and nearly the same as since 1978. in Hungary; also, in Hungary and France the alcohol consumption is higher than in the The above statistics also show that female Russian Federation, where the life expectancy life expectancy is somewhat lower than in is still lower. It should be noted that the other countries mentioned, and that of consumption of spirits is much higher in the men much lower. The discrepancy between Russian Federation, where men consume males and females becomes even more some seven times more alcohol than women. In its report Table 5-4 - Probability of dying at different ages in selected countries "Highlights on Health in the Russian Probability Probability Probability of dying Probability of dying < of dying < between ages 15 and 59 of dying in Federation", WHO states age 1 per age 5 per per 1,000 inhabitants childbirth that there is good reason 1,000 1,000 per 1,000 to suppose that the fall inhabitants inhabitants Males Females inhabitants in life expectancy in Country 1998 2001 1998 1998 1985 1993-1994 may have France 6 6 102 65 0.010 been largely due to an Hungary 10 9 281 128 0.015 increase in alcohol Netherlands 6 6 102 65 0.007 consumption, which Russian Federation 18 21 400 146 0.044 shows that alcohol Ukraine 19 20 311 124 0.025 consumption probably United States 7 7 154 79 0.008 has a large impact. Source: WHO Health Statistics Volga Vision V 39

Table 5-5 - Comparison of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption in selected countries

Average number of Consumption of alcohol Consumption of alcohol in litres 100% per adult cigarettes consumed in litres 100% per adult (over 15) per kind of beverage in the years 1999-2000 per year per person (over 15) Beer Wine Spirits Country 1980 2000 1990 - 2000 1990 - 2000 1990 - 2000 1990 - 2000 France 1,757 19.66 13.31 2.10 8.25 2.96 Hungary 2,679 16.48 11.50 3.55 4.37 3.64 Netherlands 2,775 11.07 9.45 4.62 2.72 2.05 Russian Federation 2,691 13.40 10.70 1.67 1.07 8.05 Poland 2,473 11.33 8.26 2.99 0.09 4.38 United States 2,092 10.51 9.08 5.11 1.67 2.29 Source: WHO Health Statistics It should also be noted that mortality between the ages of 0 and 65 years from all Table 5-6 - Access to essential drugs and number of causes rose sharply from 1991 to 1994, and medical doctors not only from alcohol consumption, and % of population with Number of physicians decreased slowly thereafter. access to essential (per 100,000 people) Country drugs 1999 1990-99

Although the causes of the disparity of male France 95-100 303 and female life expectancy - especially Hungary 95-100 357 mortality rates between the ages of 15 and Russian Federation 50-79 421 59 - are uncertain, it seems likely that grim Kazakhstan 50-79 353 economic and working conditions play a role, leaving men in particular defeated and Ukraine 50-79 299 depressed. The same WHO report, referring Tunisia 50-79 70 to 1999 data from the Ministry of Health Source: Human Development Report 2002 states that working conditions deteriorated the cause: the Human Development Report in all branches of industry and agriculture. 2002 gives a national figure of 421 physicians In industry, construction and transport, one per 100,000 people for the period 1990 to in five workers has to work in conditions 1999, a much higher number than in any of which do not meet health and safety the selected countries. standards and the number of such workplaces is constantly increasing. A high The relatively low access to essential drugs proportion of samples taken contain hints at economic as well as organizational excessive amounts of the most toxic challenges. In the absence of an insurance substances and chronic poisoning occurs. policy and the existence of different health systems for different categories of Table 5-5, "Probability of death at different professions and social groups, it may be ages in selected countries", shows that the expected that people without work or rate of childbirth-related deaths is much higher in the Russian Federation Table 5-7 - Tuberculosis and poverty in different countries than in other countries, Tuberculosis cases per % of population with % of population with 100,000 people in an income below 50% an income below 4 more than four times 2001 of median income in US$ a day in 2001 that of Western Europe. Country 2001 While the absolute France 6 8.0 0 numbers are relatively Hungary 22 6.7 <1 low, it shows that the Poland 23 8.6 10 medical system is not Russian Federation. 93 20.1 53 working well. The numbers of medical doctors is not United States 2 17.0 0 Source: Human Development Report 2003 40 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

working independently have difficulties in Table 5-8 - Mortality rates for infants and children receiving good medical care. under the age of five in selected countries.

The occurrence of tuberculosis, considered Infant mortality rate Child mortality (0-4) a poverty-related disease, is one indicator of (first year) per 1,000 per 1,000 live births poverty as a main cause of general ill-health. live births Country 1970 2000 1970 2000 There are some additional factors that France 18 4 18 4 impact on the indicators chosen for the Hungary 36 8 36 8 Volga Vision. HIV/AIDS has become a very Russian Federation 29 18 29 18 serious problem not only in the Volga basin Ukraine 22 17 22 17 but in the Russian Federation in general, Tunisia 135 22 135 22 where 0.9 percent of the population Source: Human Development Report 2002 between 15 and 49 years old are HIV positive. On the Eurasian land mass, only average child mortality rate, five where the Thailand has a higher rate of human rate is lower, and the remaining thirty with immunodeficiency virus (HIV). an average rate.

In conclusion, factors such as air pollution in the cities, water and soil pollution in nature, Table 5-9a - Factors of undernutrition related to child and food pollution, or the state of the mortality environment in general, do not seem to be Childhood and maternal Distribution of determining factors for life expectancy. undernutrition attributable deaths (%) Male alcohol abuse is a real challenge but 0-4 years

poverty and the related living conditions Underweight 100% would seem to be the most important Iron deficiency 72% contibuting factors to ill-health. It also Vitamin A deficiency seems that the medical services are not 85% effective in assisting those who need them Zinc deficiency 100% most. Working conditions influence male Source: WHO mortality and given the overall differences in male and female mortality ratess, poor Table 5-9b - Factors of environmental risks related to environmental conditions in the workplace child mortality and the general economic climate combined Environmental risks Distribution of with alcohol abuse may provide the best attributable deaths (%) explanation. 0-4 years Unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene 68% Urban air pollution 3% Indoor smoke from solid fuels 56% Infant and child mortality Lead exposure 0% Infant and child mortality are often used as Source: WHO indicators for public health. As previously Child mortality can have multiple causes. stated, infant mortality is the number of The WHO information in Tables 5-9a and deaths in the first year of life per 1,000 live 5-9b are based on general world wide data births, whereas child mortality (under the and do not relate directly to the actual age of five) is the number of deaths in the situation in the Russian Federation, but do first four years of life clearly indicate the most important problems to be addressed. The general situation in the Volga basin is about the same as the average in the Nutrition is the most important factor for Russian Federation. There are three regions small children. WHO and UNDP report that in the Volga basin with a higher than in the Russian Federation, 3 percent of Volga Vision V 41

children under the age of five are Quality of tap water depends on three major underweight for their age, as compared with factors: water source quality, water 2 percent for Hungary, 1 percent for the treatment, and the water distribution United States and 0 percent for Poland and system. If a city's water distribution system the European Union. is in a bad state, polluted water seeps into the pipes and most of the efforts at the Small children are most sensitive to water treatment plant are wasted. If, however, the quality as they are the greatest consumers source of raw water is microbiologically per kilogram of body weight. Weak children unsafe, the water treatment plant could still are more sensitive to bacteriological and produce good quality drinking water using viral infections than well-fed healthy ones. the appropriate water purification With well organized medical services technologies and properly operated facilities. available to all, children suffering from water quality-related illnesses should At present most of the surface water become less of a challenge. sources in the Volga basin require treatment before use for drinking water supply. Undernourishment and inadequate sanitation Moreover, a significant number of and hygiene are related to poverty and thus municipal and departmental water supply poverty, with the related difficulty of systems are not equipped with the receiving proper health care, will probably necessary treatment facilities (table 5-10). be the main factor in the relatively high In the year 2000, 22 percent of the regularly child mortality figure for the Russian monitored water sources in the rural areas Federation. did not meet sanitary standards.

Bad drinking water quality is therefore one The water supply distribution systems are of the most important health factors for generally in a very poor state due to the lack small children because it aggravates the of finance for maintenance and repair. This effects of poverty, poor nutrition and often leads to secondary microbiological ineffective health systems. contamination of drinking water.

Currently, none of the 444 cities in the Volga basin is supplied with drinking water Drinking water quality that continuously meets national standards and WHO regulations. The regions where Drinking water is one of the main problems the water supply situation is the most in the Volga basin at present. Although unsatisfactory, according to data from the there is generally sufficient water to satisfy Ministry of Health of the Russian hygiene and domestic needs, the quality is Federation, are listed in table 5-11. not always adequate. Drinking water needs to be clean and safe, causing neither Table 5-11 is inconclusive concerning water immediate health problems nor deleterious quality as no indication is given about the effects over the long term. size of the samples or the frequency of sampling. Table 5-10 - Status of surface water treatment facilities in 2000 (selected examples) Infectious diseases caused Number of water by pathogenic micro- supply systems using Not equipped with organisms (hepatitis A, surface water sources Region treatment facilities disinfection systems cholera, typhoid, amoebic and bacillary dysentery, Russian Federation 2,311 771 (34.2 %) 635 (27,6 %) etc.) provide the most Saratov Region 220 144 (65.5 %) 185 (79 %) representative indication Astrakhan Region 87 36 (41.4%) 22 (25,3%) of drinking water quality. Volgograd Region 55 17 (30,9%) 10 (18,2%) The main epidemic Source: State report on the Sanitary Situation 2000 42 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Table 5-11 - Drinking water samples that did not meet outbreaks of infectious diseases and number the standards per region in (% of samples of cases reported in 1998 are given in taken) table 5-12. The data show that the microbiological pollution is one of the main Chemical Microbiological problems of drinking water supply in the Regions parameters parameters Volga basin.

Kalmykiya Republic 93,6 36,0 In 2002, the highest number of water Kaluga Region 36,3 23,6 related epidemic outbreaks was registered Mordoviya Republic 42,1 - in the Central and Privolzhsky Federal Smolensk Region - 22,5 districts (twenty and ten, respectively) Yaroslavl Region 41,6 14,1 where the total number of affected people Kostroma Region 37,1 14,9 was 1,138. At the same time in the Russian Komi Republic 37,5 5,4 Federation, the number of water-related Moscow - 0,9 epidemic outbreaks due to intestinal Moscow Region - 6,7 infections had decreased (see table below). Penza Region 5,4 2,8 Sverdlovsk Region - 7,4 The above table gives the situation in the Perm Region - 7,5 whole country. It can be noted that the situation in 2002 was far better than in the Ryazan Region - 14,4 four years prior. Table 5-13 below gives Tver Region - 13,5 figures dating from 1998 from the Volga basin. Saratov Region 15,6 Source: State report on the Sanitary Situation, 1998 In conclusion, drinking water needs to be

Table 5-12 - Water-related epidemic outbreaks due to intestinal infections in the Russian Federation

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Registered water-related epidemic outbreaks 122 158 168 155 68 including: due to centralized water supply systems 93 117 121 105 53 Number of cases 4,403 6,077 6,853 6,289 2,756 including: due to centralized water supply systems 3,846 4,968 5,245 4,691 2,463

Source: State Report on the Sanitary Situation, 2002 chemically and micro-biologically clean. Chemical quality is important, but the limits set in the Russian Federation are more stringent even than corresponding standards in OECD countries, which makes them rather beside the point as the limits were set without any consultation or reference to industry. And the health impact of present concentrations is small. By comparison, microbiological quality has an almost immediate health impact, most notably on the weak and elderly, and can be improved dramatically at short notice through better water treatment and improved water distribution systems. This is therefore one possible priority for action. Volga Vision V 43

Air Quality Russian Federation indicate that poor air quality has a direct negative impact (e.g. Over the last decade, the air quality in the respiratory diseases, exposure of children to Volga basin has improved somewhat. The lead) on human health in cities. total mass of air emissions from stationary sources in the basin decreased by The 1999 OECD Environmental Review of 53.6 percent between 1990 and 2000 (figure Russia regarding air quality estimates that 5.1), compared to a national average of 30 to 80 percent of the populations are 44.8 percent. The decline was most living in those cities where concentrations remarkable in the Smolenskaya, could be four times higher than the Penzenskaya, Tuilskaya, Tverskaya, maximum allowable concentration (MAC). Vladimirskaya, Yaroslavskaya, Kaluizskaya, According to Russian research results, in Ulianovskaya and Orlovskaya oblasts, cities where the annual sulfur dioxide where emissions were reduced by more than concentrations are two to four times the 70 percent from their level in 1990. MAC, there is a 12 to 23 percent greater Reductions in emissions of carbon oxides, incidence of respiratory diseases. In solid particles, nitrous oxides, sulphur addition, ground level ozone is not being dioxide and other greenhouse gases were measured in the Russian Federation, and also recorded. The major cause for this lead contamination is especially noticeable downward trend is not the adoption of in cities with heavy traffic and large lead cleaner production techniques, but rather emissions from stationary sources. Some the decline of industrial production in the cities, like Nizhny Novgorod, have recently basin. phased out leaded petrol.

Figure 5-1 - Air emissions from stationary sources in the Volga basin, National air quality 1990-2000, in 1,000 tons standards are very strict 12000 and detailed in Russia 10000 but compliance is often 8000 impossible in the current 6000 context of a weak economy 4000 and lack of capital for industries to improve 2000 their equipment and 0 1990 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 processes. Implementation of the new air law may help Source: Regions of Russia 2001 rectify these deficiencies. Despite the improvement in air quality in the basin's cities and industrial centres, air Table 5-14 - Selected Maximum Allowable Concentrations pollution is still high in many places. This is (MAC) in micrograms per cubic metre in the also caused by the increase of emissions Russian Federation and WHO recommended levels from mobile sources, particularly due to a sharp growth in the number of cars in recent MAC in Russian WHO guideline Federation (mg/m³) years. Many automobiles do not meet (mg/m³) contemporary ecological standards, and Pollutant many industrial facilities are not equipped with proper air scrubbers. Production SO2 50 125 technologies are outdated and are NOx 40 40 environmentally harmful. Today, according CO 3,000 10,000 to official statistics only about 58 percent of Benzo-a-pyrene 0.001 0.001 the total air emissions from stationary Lead 0.3 0.5 sources are captured or purified in the Volga Ozone 30 50-80 basin. This rate is lower than the Russian Particulate matter 150 120 average. Environmental reports in the Source: OECD Environmental Performance Reviews 1999 44 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Table 5.14 above shows a comparison of quality situation in the Volga basin is some standards. assumed to be on a par with that of the whole country. In its report "Highlights on Health in the Russian Federation", WHO emphasizes the need to limit the negative impacts of traffic on air quality in urban areas. This can only 5.2.2. Nutrition take place by replacing old motor vehicles with modern ones and banning the use of The nutritional situation leaded petrol. At present there is no lack of food supply in the regions of the Volga basin. However, there is a clear difference in variety of food Food quality between urban and rural areas. The average daily calorie consumption per person in the Microbiological and chemical quality of Russian Federation is approximately food is very important for human health. 2,700 kCal (WHO: Highlights on Health in One food quality indicator is the number of the Russian Federation 1999), some 500 to health control samples of food which do not 700 kCal lower than the recommended meet standards and show the presence of levels for the climate. The main caloric toxic chemicals and microbiological input is derived from cereals, potatoes, contamination of foodstuffs. According to meat, milk and vegetables. The diagrams WHO data, the average proportion of food below represent the trends in the basin's samples exceeding the safety limits of consumption of main food items. chemical parameters is estimated to be as high 1-3 percent (Highlights on Health in The figure 5-2 shows a slight increase in the Russian Federation). There have, consumption of potatoes and vegetables, however, been some positive signs over the and a large decrease in consumption of milk last years with regards to mycotoxins and and meat products, while bread consumption toxic heavy metals content. The number of for the period 1990-2000 remained relatively samples exceeding maximum permissible stable. These developments in food levels for nitrates and pesticides are 2 and consumption may well correspond to the 0,4 percent, respectively. The proportion of low purchasing power of a large part of the samples which do not meet microbiological population. For the observed time span, the contamination standards is higher and is average share of household income spent on estimated to be as high as 7 percent, but the food grew by 48.4 percent. WHO reports situation seems to be improving. The food that the Russian diet is lacking in some

Figure 5-2 - The main food consumption items in the Volga basin

kg/year Average for the Volga Basin

450,00 Meat and meat foodstuffs 400,00 Milk and milk foodstuffs 350,00 300,00 Potatoes

250,00 Bread 200,00 Vegetables, melons and gourds 150,00 100,00 50,00 0 19901991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year

Source: Regions of Russia 2001 Volga Vision V 45

vitamin groups, mainly Table 5-15 - Fish supply per capita per year in selected countries (in kg) the B group, ascorbic acid, calcium and iron salts (Highlights on Fish/Seafood in kg/cap Freshwater fish in kg/cap Health in the Russian Country 1994 2000 1994 2000

Federation). In addition, Finland 35.4 32.1 5.8 8.5 information taken from France 30.0 31.2 2.8 3.6 FAO shows that while the annual Russian Russian Federation 12.1 19.4 2.8 3.6 consumption of animal Netherlands 13.6 20.6 1.6 1.6 protein is about 41 grams Source: FAOSTAT per day, it is 50 in Poland and Hungary, Table 5-16 - Production of food products in calories per day in selected countries. and 57 and 77 in Germany and France, Production respectively (FAOSTAT Average number of Average number of 2000 data). calories per person calories per person Total number of per day from per day from animal calories per day Country vegetable products products The above graph does not specify the share of Russian Federation 2,269 648 2,917 fish, which constitutes Ukraine 2,286 585 2,853 another important and Poland 2,486 890 3,376 increasing source of Hungary 2,345 1,113 3,458 protein in the Russian France 2,245 1,346 3,591 diet, as shown in table 5- Netherlands 2,110 1,185 3,295

15. Source: the data for the countries, year 2000, are taken from FAOSTAT Table 5-16 shows that while the calories additional import of meat products, one derived from vegetable products is more or may conclude that the undernourishment less equal in the countries selected, the present in some segments of the population production of animal foodstuffs is far lower is due to difficulties in purchasing food; in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. It is undernourishment in the basin is therefore worth noting that caloric production primarily a poverty problem and not a (2,917 kCal) is higher than caloric production or availablity problem. consumption (2,700 kCal). Given the

Table 5-17 - Food production in the Volga basin

Food Upper Volga Middle Volga Lower Volga production Year thousand tons kg per thousand tons kg per thousand tons kg per per year inhabitant per per year inhabitant per per year inhabitant per item year year year

1990 4,379.6 493 37,049.9 705 11,209.2 1,682 Cereals 2000 1,691.6 200 20,426.2 396 4,940.2 739 1990 2,811.5 317 11,830.3 225 337.0 51 Potatoes 2000 3,104.6 366 11,543.2 224 1,039.1 156 1990 472.5 53 3,114.4 59 876.1 131 Vegetables 2000 1,428.7 169 4,240.6 82 632.4 95 1990 4,596.7 518 1,9015.1 362 2,891.8 434 Milk 2000 2,821.7 333 1,1526.2 224 1,549.5 232 1990 672.2 76 3,190.5 61 630.1 95 Meat 2000 294.5 35 1,481.0 29 266.5 40

Source: Regions of Russia, 2001 46 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Food production due to reduced application of fertilizers and pesticides as well as deterioration in the The main figures for food production in the technologies and equipment used in the Volga basin are given in table 5-17. agricultural sector. The table 5-18 shows the decrease in cereal yield. The figures given above show a considerable reduction in animal products such as milk Yields are very dependent on weather and meat. Numbers of all kinds of livestock conditions and may vary from year to year, showed a decline as can be seen from especially for cereals in the Upper Volga. figure 5-3. Beside the fall in demand for The table also shows an increase in potato yield. animal products, the situation is also related to the structural and economic changes in Table 5-19 compares the yields for food the agro-food sector. The livestock and products in different European countries. meat processing sector has come up against market conditions, most importantly competition Table 5-18 - Average yield per ha of cultivated area in the Volga basin (in kg/ha) from meat imports. Total for the No similar market situation Food item Year Volga Basin Upper Volga Middle Volga Lower Volga exists for cereals because 1990 1,787 1,410 1,896 1,853 of the relatively stable Cereals consumption of bread and 2000 1,373 1,120 1,508 1,218 1990 9,816 11,243 9,600 5,575 bakery products in the Potatoes basin. Therefore, the fall in 2000 10,708 12,271 10,030 9,675 1990 19,492 23,514 18,670 16,525 cereal production results Vegetables from reduction of cultivated 2000 17,822 25,000 17,105 10,200 areas, decreased crop yield Source: Regions of Russia, 2001

Figure 5-3 - Livestock reduction in the Volga basin -78,0% -62,2% 1541 -51,5% 584 503 -47,0%

348 244 221 184

1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 Upper MIddle Lower Volga Volga Volga Heads of cattle per 1,000 inhabitants

-66,5%

378 -57,0% -57,6% -74,4% 339 -67,2% 227 216 216 160 127 98 91 52 55

1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 Upper MIddle Lower Upper MIddle Lower Volga Volga Volga Volga Volga Volga Heads of pig per 1,000 inhabitants Heads of goat, sheep per 1,000 inhabitants Source: Regions of Russia Volga Vision V 47

Table 5-19 - Wheat and potato yields in the Russian According to FAO and based on other Federation and other selected countries official data, the decrease in irrigated areas in Russia as a whole during 1995-2000 was Yield per ha for Yield per ha for wheat, between 11 and 14 percent, and from 1990 Country potatoes, kg/ha kg/ha to 2000 was around 25 percent. FAO cites the economic recession as the reason for the Russian Federation 10,500 1,617 decline. Volga basin 10,708 1,373 Ukraine 12,163 1,976 Another reason is that the sprinkler systems Poland 19,376 3,227 (accounting for almost 96 percent of the Hungary 18,474 3,604 area equipped for irrigation in 1990) are France 39,383 7,116 overused, and they are not maintained. This progressively results in the complete Netherlands 46,458 8,398 destruction and subsequent abandonment Source: : The data for the countries, year 2000, are taken from FAOSTAT. The data for the Volga Basin come from Regions of Russia, 2001. of the irrigation systems. Finally, it may be that figures were inflated in the past. The low yield in the Russian Federation is caused, as previously noted, by a very scarce In 1994, again according to FAO, irrigated use of fertilizer and pesticides, absence of crops covered almost 4.1 million ha of the modern machinery and difficulties in the country, equal to 79 percent of the irrigated maintenance and operation of existing area. Fodder represented the largest machines. This production system did not irrigated crop area with almost 2.6 million ha, lead to food shortages, thus there has been 62 percent of the total. It was followed by no incentive to increase the yield. However, cereals and pulses (figure 5-4). this low productivity leads to low income for the Figure 5-4 - Distribution of irrigated area in the Russian Federation in 1994 by crop farmers. In principle, with Irrigated crops Total: 4 095 000 ha in 1994 better land management it would be possible to Other cereals and pulses diminish the surface of cultivated areas by half Maize while doubling productivity Rice per hectare. Such a policy would have the Industrial crops (mainly sugar beets) benefit of improving farm incomes while also Vegetables and potatoes keeping land free for Fodder crops environmental purposes. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 thousand hectares Source: FAO Irrigation Water withdrawal for agriculture (including irrigation) was estimated to be 15 km³ for According to official statistics from the year the whole of the Russian Federation in 2000 edition of "The Protection of the 1994, compared to 10.5 km³ in the year Environment", the total area of irrigated 2000. lands in the Volga basin was 1,724,400 ha (1.78 percent of the total agricultural area The CASSEAS project, which studies the in the basin). The major part of irrigated water balance of the Caspian Sea and the agricultural lands in the Volga basin is in the Volga basin, estimated a 40 to 50 percent Middle (55.1 percent) and the Lower Volga loss of irrigated areas in the basin over the (43.4 percent). During 1995-2000, the irrigated last ten years; which would bring the total agricultural area was reduced by 15 percent. irrigated area in the basin to some 900,000 ha. 48 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

In the year 2000, total water withdrawal for economic functions. Solonetzic soils are agriculture (including irrigation) in the characterized by their high alkalinity as well Volga basin was estimated to be 2 km³. as by significant deterioration of water- This is, compared to the total annual flow related physical characteristics - increased of about 230 km³ and the natural density, insufficient porosity and weak variability, a low figure and as such has little water permeability. environmental impact on either the river itself or the Caspian Sea. In the Volga basin, 20 percent of agricultural land is subject to salinization. The largest areas of saline soils are concentrated in the

Soil conditions Table 5-20 - Soil salinization at the Volga basin in 1995

According to data from Saline and the Russian cadastral Saline soils, Solonetzic soils, solonetzic soils, % of total area of service, by the end of Primary zones thousand ha thousand ha thousand ha soils 2000, 1.5 million hectares Upper Volga 0 0 0 0.0 of agricultural land in the Middle Volga 820.6 2,129.3 2,949.9 5.4 Russian Federation were Lower Volga 5,181.8 9,527.9 1,4709.7 63.5 classified as "damaged". Total in the Volga basin 6,002.4 1,1657.2 1,7659.6 20.0 This figure includes 311 thousand hectares of Source: State report on condition and the use of land. exhausted land (Protection of the Lower Volga, as illustrated by table 5-20 Environment). In the basin itself, the and map 5-3 (Annex, p.136). damaged lands represent 0.12 percent of the total agricultural area. The semi-desert zone of the Lower Volga is subject to desertification. It is a complex The Volga basin covers five natural climatic process wherein the top layers of soil lose zones with precisely marked soil zoning, their structure and are transformed into including south-taiga (forest), forest- sandy, stony soils. One of the basic reasons steppe, steppe, dry-steppe and semi-desert. for the desertification of pastoral land is Each zone is characterized by distinctive excessive herd size, overgrazing and other parameters and processes defining local soil inappropriate pasture management practices. conditions and suitability of each territory for agricultural production. The Upper Volga's south-taiga zone, which represents 10 percent of the arable area, has Degradation processes in forest-steppes and undergone water-logging and been steppes are caused by inappropriate land transformed into swamps: this changes use, including overgrazing, which often reductive-oxidative conditions as well as the leads to increased water erosion. The content and structure of organic substances intensity of erosion depends on the in the soil. As a result of oxygen shortage in combination of such factors as the erosive the soil and anaerobic processes, toxic oxide potential of precipitation and soil compounds of manganese and iron are conditions, the condition of the ground accumulated, suppressing the activity of surface, the presence and character of a useful soil microorganisms. All these vegetative cover, and the type of soil. modifications have negative effects on plants. The dry-steppe and semi-desert zones are marked by solonetzic and saline soils. Soil About 45 percent of cropland soils in the salinization is the accumulation of easily south-taiga zone have a medium to strong dissoluble and toxic salts which affect acidic reaction. Excessive soil acidity in this plants in the soil structure. Salinization zone negatively influences the growth and reduces the soil's general ecological and development of plants. Volga Vision V 49

Although there are several areas with soil A comparison of fertilizer use in selected problems in the Volga basin, there is an countries including the Russian Federation abundance of very good soils in the basin. is given in table 5-22. The use of fertilizer in the Volga basin is therefore very low, overall, and the argument that even less should be used in Fertilizers order to avoid its seeping into groundwater reserves may not be valid. In fact, it is not at The use of organic fertilizers has diminished all clear that agricultural run-off is the main everywhere, except in the Saratov region. In cause of the algal growth that appears in general, the volumes of mineral fertilizers summer in some of the Volga's reservoirs. applied within the Middle and Lower Volga This could also be caused by localized basin have diminished by 15 percent and pollution problems. 16 percent, respectively, and increased within the Upper Volga basin by 7 percent between 1995-2000. Table 5-21 shows the Pesticides dynamics of fertilizer application in the three zones of the Volga basin. Unlike other pollutants, pesticides are deliberately dispersed into Table 5-21 - Delivery of fertilizers to the field in the Volga basin (thousand tons) the environment to eliminate pests. The Organic fertilizers, Mineral fertilizers recalculated for in 1,000 tons comparison with organic fertilizers, stability of many pesticides zones in 1,000 tons ensures their accumulation in soils over many years, 1995 2000 1995 2000 and their high toxic Upper Volga 14,330 7,304 81.5 86.9 capacity affects agricultural Middle Volga 56,932 30,093 749.9 639.1 ecosystems (plants and Lower Volga 1,355 1,444 16.6 14.0 animals), finally causing Source: Regions of Russia, 2001 irreversible changes. These changes may affect humans as well. Table 5-22 - Total use of fertilizer in different countries in the year 2000 Pesticides are applied on 12.2 percent of the Total fertilizer Fertilizer use in kg per ha basin's agricultural areas. According to the use in metric of pastures plus arable data of the Chief Administration of the tons land Country Chemistry and Plants Protection of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian 299,000 136 Finland Federation, there was a reduction in areas France 4,144,800 145 of pesticides application in the Volga basin Hungary 417,000 74 between 1985-2000, as shown in table 5-23. Netherlands 418,000 217 No data are given here on the application Russian Federation 1,420,000 7 rate (kg/ha) of pesticides. Source: FAOSTAT Table 5-23 - Use of pesticides in the Volga basin in 1986 and 2001

1986 2001 Agricultural Application of % of agri- Agricultural Application of % of agri- grounds, pesticides, cultural area grounds, pesticides, cultural area Primary zones thousand ha thousand ha thousand ha thousand ha

Upper Volga 12,719 2,527 19.9 12,301 523 4.2 Middle Volga 58,098 21,304 36.7 57,814 9,644 16.7 Lower Volga 26,743 4,278 16.0 26,737 1,614 6.0 Total in the Volga basin 97,560 28,109 28.8 96,852 11,781 12.2

Source: Data come from the reports of the Ministry of Agriculture, 1986-1990, 2001 50 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Although minerals are now the most environmental losses which exceeds the important chemical pollutant of agricultural ability of the affected society to cope using surface waters, until 1990 pesticides played its own resources. A natural disaster, in the a significant role. Polluting substances from terminology of the UN system, is the result the whole Volga basin territory have already of the impact of a natural hazard on a socio- been present for many years in the economic system with a given level of reservoirs of the Volga River. vulnerability, which prevents the affected society from coping adequately with the The present situation shows improvement negative impacts of any of the natural in the ecological situation on the one hand, hazards which might have struck. and deterioration of agricultural production (UN/ISDR). on the other, as pest controls do increase productivity. One of the challenges of the According to existing Russian national next thirty years will be to find the balance standards (GOST) a natural disaster is a between the use of pesticides in agricultural large-scale destructive natural hazard or production and the health of the population creeping natural process resulting in threats and environment. to life or human health, in destruction of material property and environment; emergency is a situation when normal conditions for human existence and Socio-economic factors of food activities are breached, a threat to human lives and health, and damage to material production property, economy and environment occur, and emergency responses aimed at risk At the time this section was written, not reduction are required. Emergencies are much information was available to the classified according to their scale, i.e. authors regarding the state of agriculture transboundary (international), federal, from the farmers' point of view and the regional, territorial, and local. difficulties in making agriculture profitable, nor was official information available about Major types of natural hazards that occur land ownership, investment possibilities, regularly in the Volga basin and that maintenance and credit. By extrapolation threaten human security include river floods from available information such as the fact and coastal flooding, severe storms, forest that in rural areas, less than 30 percent of and peat fires and associated haze, extreme the population has water supply snowfalls and frosts, droughts, landslides connections, and by reading about the and insect infestations. It is important to condition of rural schools in the press, it is note that natural hazards themselves do not possible to conclude that the economic necessarily lead to natural disasters. It is conditions of rural populations and farmers only their interaction with people, with their are likely to be far below those of urban livelihoods and their environment that populations. generates impacts which may reach disastrous proportions and lead to emergency situations. Poor communities in the rural areas of the basin are especially 5.2.3. Human and environ- vulnerable as their ability to totally recover from disaster and to earn a modest income mental security are limited. As a result, prospects of escaping poverty are postponed if not Natural disasters jeopardized altogether.

A disaster is usually defined as a serious According to official data of the Russian disruption of the functioning of society, Federation Ministry on Civil Defence, causing widespread human, material, or Emergencies and Natural Disasters Volga Vision V 51

Mitigation (EMERCOM) there were a total the deaths of eight people, with about 200 of fifty-one natural disasters emergencies in more badly affected; 2,143 buildings were 2001 in the Volga basin, with more than a destroyed. The economic damage amounted half of emergency situations (thirty-four) to 1.6 billion US$. registered in Middle Volga region. Abnormal air temperature fluctuations with However, reliable methodologies for snow melting during winter periods were the systematic damage assessment from reason for destruction of winter crops in emergencies and their negative human and 2001 in Saratov oblast (135,000 ha), in environmental impacts across the country Bashkortastan (135,000 ha), Tatarstan do not yet exist. Existing assessments are (125,000 ha) and in Mary-el republic usually approximate with regards to the (79,000 ha). Agricultural crops were numbers of affected persons and the extent severely damaged by unusually severe frosts of the economic damage. in Orel, Tambov and Tuila oblasts. According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, Deaths related to natural disasters in the about 88 percent of the total damage to region are usually caused by heavy agricultural lands from natural disasters is snowstorms and periods of extreme low attributed to droughts, abnormal temperatures, as well as other extreme temperature fluctuations and hail. weather events. A relatively high proportion of deaths in the Volga basin are caused by Summer droughts (atmosphere and soil) are technological rather than natural hazards, frequent in the Central, Privolzsk and whereas the total number of people affected Southern federal districts where they is usually higher in natural disasters. For negatively affect agricultural crops. In example, in 2001, only about one tenth of Povolzye, for example, emergencies caused fatalities associated with emergency by droughts are being regularly registered situations in the Russian Federation were every two to three years. In 2001, some caused by natural disasters. 416,000 ha of crops were ruined in Saratov oblast, 317,000 ha in Bashkortastan, and The number and frequency of extreme 158,000 ha in Volgograd oblasts. Late weather fluctuations and abnormal spring and summer droughts with meteorological events (storms, hurricanes, accompanying dry winds are typical and tornadoes, heavy rainfalls and snowfalls) frequent in Astrakhan oblast. resulting in emergencies has increased in recent years throughout the basin. Most of its territory is vulnerable to destructive storms with heavy snowfalls and rainfalls, or Forest and peat fires hail. Most vulnerable to winter extreme weather events are the oblasts of Recently, wildfires have become more Vladimirskaya, Kalujskaya, Saratovskaya, problematic and are starting to cause more Nizhnegorodskaya, and Mordovia. During damage. For example, in 2000 about summer periods, heavy rainfalls, storms, 101,000 cubic metres of timber were burned and hail result in severe damage to crops in Table 5-24 - Wildfires in the Volga basin, 2000 important agricultural Number of fires Area affected by Timber affected and areas. They cause floods fires(hectares) burned (thousand cubic in the settlements and Volga region metres) destroy infrastructure and 41 roads. Most vulnerable Upper Volga 1,266 1,825 are the regions on the Middle Volga 2,362 7,067 55 left bank of the Volga. In Lower Volga 303 218 5 July 1998 a destructive Volga basin 3,931 9,110 101 storm in Moscow caused Total Russian Federation 22,421 1,328,557 39,626 52 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

in forest fires in the basin, and some vulnerability to floods (with about one third 9,100 ha were affected by wildfires. Often, of the total population of each region) is forest and peat fires are accompanied by registered in Volgogradskaya and haze which negatively affects human Yaroslavskaya oblasts, in Kalmikiya, Mari- health, causing aggravation of chronic El, Bashkortostan republics, and in Komi- respiratory deceases, sometimes resulting in Permyatsky. Currently, levels of preparedness fatal outcomes. Negative impacts are also and protection in the flood-prone regions of associated with changes in landscapes, in the basin are poor. biodiversity and in ecosystems, especially in pristine areas of the Volga basin. Settlements in many areas do not have the necessary engineering protection. Often, flood-related emergencies occur because of violation of existing technical norms for Floods construction of houses in flood-prone areas: they are built ignoring existing regulations Floods are among the regularly occurring and checks are not performed regularly. and destructive natural disasters in the Volga basin. Often, they result in severe Education of the local population is required social and economic damage to livelihoods, regarding how to effectively reduce the risks and require emergency evacuations. They of floods, how to adapt to them, and what also damage agricultural crops and destroy behaviour and regulations to adapt in flood- infrastructure and buildings. About 4.7 million prone areas. Unfortunately, most of the people in the basin are reported potentially population still relies heavily on "good luck" vulnerable to floods (Shahramanyan M.; when facing possible disasters. Akimov V. and Kozlov K. 1998. Ocenka prirodnoi i technogennoy bezopasnosti At the same time, most of the existing Rossii, Moscow, Delovoy Express). High hydrotechnical facilities are aged and worn-

Table 5-25 - Natural disasters in the Volga basin from 1994 to 2001

Type of Location Disaster subset Year Deaths Total Primary source disaster affected

Epidemic Tatarstan Arbovirus 2000 0 564 UN:WHO/OMS Epidemic Volgograd region Arbovirus 1999 33 526 UN:WHO/OMS Extreme temp Moscow Cold wave 1994 42 0 ReIns:Swiss Extreme temp Moscow Cold wave 2000 232 94 Press:AFP Extreme temp Moscow Cold wave 1999 162 246 Press:AFP Extreme temp Moscow, Saint- Cold wave 2001 332 174 US Gov:NOAA Extreme temp Petersburg Cold wave 1995 208 108 ReIns:Swiss Extreme temp Moscow Cold wave 1993 41 260 ReIns:Swiss Extreme temp Moscow Cold wave 1997 22 0 Lloyds Cas Wk Drought Moscow Drought 1998 0 0 Lloyds Cas Wk Flood Tatarstan Flood 1994 7 1,000 US Gov:OFDA Flood Kalmykia Flood 1998 0 3,500 Lloyds Cas Wk Flood Veliky Ustyug Flood 2000 0 Press:AFP Extreme temp Moscow Heat wave 1995 20 0 ReIns:Swiss Extreme temp Moscow Heat wave 2001 276 0 Press:AFP Wind storm Caspian Sea Storm 1995 52 2,100 Lloyds Cas Wk (Kalmykiya Republic)

Wind storm Moscow Storm 1998 8 160 Lloyds Cas Wk

Source: OFDA/CRET Data base, University of Louvain Volga Vision V 53

out. Technical conditions are critical, occurred in recent years. However, incidents placing many settlements and territories at such as trucks leaking chemicals, pipeline risk. About one third of the water reservoirs leaks or railway tanker accidents do occur, have been in operation for over thirty years as reported in table 5-26. and urgently need renovating. Failure of hydrotechnical facilities could result in large- Unfortunately, accidents, especially scale flooding of Moskovskaya, Tverskaya, transport-related ones, cannot be entirely Yaroslavskaya, Kostromskaya, Ivanovskaya, avoided, although those related to pipeline Nizhegorodskaya oblasts. For example, in transport of oil and gas can. case of an accident at the Moscow River reservoir cascade, the flooded area might The above table only gives information amount to 350 km², with 340,000 people at about large accidents, and is not risk, and in case of an accident of the representative of everything that could go Nizhegorodsky (Gorky) reservoir, the flood wrong. There are many more smaller could affect a territory of 2,800 km², with incidents involving industries and pipelines. about 190 settlements and a population of about 550 thousand.

In conclusion, the number of people killed is 5.2.4. Housing and settlements highest by far in disasters involving extreme temperatures, especially the cold. The Housing number of flood-related deaths is very low, floods affect the largest number of people, The indicator "living space" measures the and it is likely that the numbers are much average number of square metres available higher than reported. per person in a house or apartment. The living space in the three zones of the Volga basin is shown in table 5-27 and in map 5-4 Environmental disasters and accidents (Annex, p. 137). The slight increase since 1990 is probably due to the reduced number of human origin of inhabitants.

Major technological disasters affecting the The authors of the report have no environment at a large scale have not information about the number of living

Table 5-26 - Human-origin disasters with an environmental impact from 1990 to 1997 in the Volga basin

Date Location Installation Product Effect on Other effects humans

29/03/90 Ufa Leak from gas Natural gas Killed: 462 Trees destroyed pipeline.Explosion caused by (equivalent 10,000 tons Injured: 706 at 4 km. two passenger trains at 800 TNT) Windows broken metres from pipeline at 15 km 25/06/93 Moscow Collision between trailer, Gasoline Killed: 10 gasoline tanker.Fire involving Injured: 24 trolley bus passengers 11/02/94 Berezniki Metallurgical plant leak Chlorine Injured: 30 05/03/95 Bashkortostan Explosion after gas leak Gas Killed: 11 14/05/96 Shumerlya Rail cars derailed on bridge, Phenol in Volga River Injured: 100 pollution of river (30 tons) 16/02/97 Saratov Pipeline leak 1,500 tons oil (400 tons in Mechetka, Volga River) 65 ha oil slick

Source: OECD Environmental Performance Review of 1999 for Russia 54 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Compared to smaller countries, the spacious system of Russian urban development is accompanied by an increased cost of development and maintenance of the centralized engineering infrastructure systems, and an increased volume and range of intra-urban transportation. However, the wish of the population to have sufficient green space may well be worth this extra cost, and Russian cities are well able to cater to this need.

Underflooding

Underflooding is a temporary rise of groundwater resulting in the flooding of the affected area. It is caused by an increase of units (houses, apartments) that will have to groundwater levels in adjoining areas, be renovated, partially or totally, in the next sometimes due to a similar increase in river thirty years. Such a figure could vary or reservoir levels. The only effective between 10 and 50 percent. This would be remedy in most cases, besides lowering important to know because housing water levels in nearby water bodies, is construction impacts on the environment, effective drainage (for example through through the mining of building materials, pumping) of the excess underground water. transport, dust, noise and disturbance of ecosystems. Practically all large cities of the Volga basin - Moscow, N. Novgorod, Saratov, Astrakhan - are subject to underflooding, as are the historical cities, Yaroslavl, Kazan, Urbanization and landscaping Tver, Suzdal, and other monuments such as Kuskovo, Ostankinskiy Palace in Moscow The most important recreational development and the Borodino battle field. No more than is in a strip of land along the rivers in the 12 percent of the Volga basin's affected Volga basin from the Upper Volga to cities has protection measures and Volgograd, where the optimum set of structures against underflooding. parameters exist: few people, attractive landscapes, numerous islands, and significant The area of underflooded lands, as defined numbers of monuments of culture, on a cadastral database on very humid and archaeology, architecture and art. waterlogged lands, has increased by 50 percent since 1980. This is partly due to an increase in precipitation in the last Table 5-28 - Green open space in urban areas in square twenty years. This underflooding often metres per inhabitant in 2000 leads to public health problems from water- borne diseases, in addition to deformation Open space in cities Range within the of buildings, structures, pipelines and other Zones regions engineering infrastructure, and a decrease Upper Volga 89.16 58 to 117 of seismic stability of buildings and Middle Volga 126.40 52 to 379 structures, among other consequences. Lower Volga 137.68 62 to 285 Volga Vision V 55

Communal services Indicators Data Base of UN HABITAT states that Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod On the average, the indices for the Volga are practically 100 percent served with basin coincide with national data. piped water supply, while the figure for Astrakhan is 81 percent. It is useful to note that the density of facilities differs significantly between regional From the above figures one can conclude centres, cities of regional importance and that while the number of people connected rural areas. Parameters for facilities differ to piped water supply and sewerage very much for urban and rural areas: at the networks is satisfactory in larger cities, this end of 1998, 86 percent of urban housing is not the case for the smaller rural resources in the Russian Federation were communities. supplied with piped water, 84 percent with sewage network, 74 percent with hot water supply and 87 percent with central heating. All indices of these parameters are 50 to Energy 80 percent lower for rural areas. Energy comes to the urban environment in It is not easy to compare these figures with the form of coal, oil, gas and electricity. data from other countries. The WHO Within most individual homes, offices and statistics for access to improved drinking many small enterprises, electricity is the water sources range from 98 to 100 percent, most widely used source of energy. but the definition of the term "improved Electricity in the Volga basin is produced by drinking water sources" is so vague that it is nuclear power plants, thermal power plants of little use here. The Global Urban and by hydropower. Table 5-30 gives some statistics. Table 5-29 - Communal facilities in the Volga basin in 2000 Hydropower only accounts % of households equipped with for 10 percent of total electricity production, Water sewage central gas hot water supply network heating supply but is very important as Primary zones pipes it covers peak demand. Upper Volga 65 58 58 84 47 Hydroelectric power Middle Volga 69 64 73 85 53 stations are also used to regulate frequency and Lower Volga 62 57 62 90 43 voltage in the power Total Volga basin 67 61 67 85 50 system. They work in Total Russian Federation 73 69 73 70 59 parallel with thermal Source: Regions of Russia, 2001 and nuclear plants and increase their reliability Table 5-30 - Production of electric power in the Volga basin for 1999 (GWh) and profitability. The installed capacity of Power production by Total Thermal Hydro- Nuclear From other hydroelectric power the Unified Energy In GWh Power electric sources Systems stations working at the in % of in % of in % of in % of Volga basin is 11.7 GW. (UES) total total total total The Volga-Kama UES Russian Federation 791,065 62 19 15 4 coordinated hydroelectric UES Center 226,167 60 7 28 5 system is the principal UES Middle Volga 88,275 53 23 23 1 source of generation, UES Ural 188,318 90 3 2 5 with eleven hydroelectric power stations and a UES North-West 76,617 33 18 41 8 combined capacity of Total UES by Volga basin 579,377 65 10 21 4 11.4 GW. 56 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Introduction of such technologies over the Table 5-32 -Volga-Kama coordinated hydroelectric system coming three decades will significantly improve both human and environmental Installed Annual Start of the capacity, average first unit, health. The transition of the power complex Hydroelectric Megawatts output, year from coal and oil to natural gas and nuclear power station Gwh energy is also possible. This would result in Volga River a decrease of emissions into the atmosphere.

Ivankovsk 30 130 1937 Uglich 110 240 1940 Rybinsk 330 110 1941 5.2.5. Environment Nizhny Novgorod 520 1,513 1955 Cheboksary 1,404 3,500 1980 The Volga River basin area covers Kuibyshev 2,300 10,900 1955 1.358 million km2 (about 136 million ha) Saratov 1,360 5,400 1967 and is by far the largest basin in Europe. Volgograd 2,563 11,100 1958 The Volga River flows for 3,600 km from Kama River the Valday hills not far from Saint Petersburg IKama 504 1,915 1954 to the Caspian Sea. Its largest tributaries Votkinsk 1,000 2,320 1961 are the Oka, Samara, Kama and Vetluga. Nizhne-Kamsk 1,248 2,540 1978 For much of its length the river has a high Total 11,369 39,668 right bank and a low left bank. It is free Source: V. Naydenko from ice for 200 days in the north to Table 5-32 shows that the installed 260 days per year in the south. It is largely hydropower capacity tends to increase fed by water from melting snow and is prone downstream. For purposes of comparison, a to high and long spring floods. The Volga larger thermal power plant has an installed traverses almost all the landscape zones of capacity of 2,000 Megawatts. the Russian plane, from forest to semi- desert. The climate is continental with cold The population used approximately 6,152 kwh winters and relatively warm summers. The of electric power per person per year in the annual precipitation ranges from 600 mm in Volga basin in 1990. In the year 2000, the the north to 200 in the south. electricity consumption per inhabitant for the whole of the country was 4,181 kwh, a The entire Volga basin is a unique natural figure not far from the 6,000 used in France and cultural environment. The largest and the Netherlands. It is, however, much European river, the biggest forests in lower than the United States and Finland, Europe and the small slopes of the basin each of which uses more than 12,000, and underline its peculiarities. Within this basin much higher than Poland and Hungary's the biodiversity of the Lower Volga region is 3,000 kwh per person per year. of global importance and its delta wetlands are considered the best conserved in The combined power station system Europe. A part of the Volga Delta has been supplies the Volga region with the required named the Astrakhan Biosphere Reserve electric energy. The current energy supply and approximately half of the estuary zone in the Volga basin, combined with the is designated as a protected wetlands site operational and power stations under under the Ramsar Convention. Two other construction, is expected to be sufficient for biospheres in the Volga basin are also the next thirty years. However, an increase internationally recognized by the UNESCO- of energy production will likewise cause an MAB (Man and Biosphere) programme: the increase of harmful emissions in the Darvinskiy Biosphere Reserve and the environment. Energy-efficient technologies Nijegorodskoe Zovolje Biosphere Reserve. are rare in the Russian Federation in At least fifteen globally endangered bird comparison to other European countries. species are registered in the Lower Volga. In Volga Vision V 57

Table 5-33 - Comparison of the Rhine-Meuse, Danube and Volga river basins, using 1999 data from the World Resources Institute

Rhine/Meuse Danube Volga

Basin area in km²Mean annual discharge in 198,731 795 686 1,410,994 m³/s, at the mouth 2,300 6,000 8,100 Population density in people per km² 304 103 42 Large cities 68 60 61 Total fish species 60 103 88 Threatened fish species 1 18 5 Ramsar sites 20 47 2 Protected areas in % of basin area 18% 7% 1% Wetlands in % of basin area 1% 1% 2% Arid area 0% 3% 20% Forest area 7% 20% 23% Cropland 64% 67% 59% Developed area (cities, roads, etc) 26% 11% 10% Shrub 1% 1% Grassland 1% 6% Eroded area 1% 18% 11% Large dams 6 11 14 the delta area there are spawning grounds The data for the Volga basin in table 5-33 of four threatened sturgeon species included are sometimes different from data given by in the IUCN Red List. other sources; nonetheless, the figures in the table are adequate for making general The river is part of a trade route several comparisons. Two of the most striking thousands of years old from Central Asia to statistics in the table are the basin's low the Baltic. Navigation was and is practiced population density and the high average aver the whole reach of the Volga and its river discharge. It is therefore possible in major tributaries. Soil quality, especially in principle to have good environmental the middle regions is among the best in the conditions in the basin. world for agriculture. It is therefore not astonishing that important cities, such as The dams built on the river have Nizhny Novgorod and Volgograd were transformed it into a series of artificial established at its banks. In the seventeenth reservoirs. The numerous industries discharge century, navigation started to be improved their wastewaters - more or less treated - through engineering works, leading finally into the river. Most cities do not clean their in the twentieth century to the construction municipal wastewater. Accordingly, there of large dams and reservoirs on the Volga are many environmental black spots in the and the Kama. The availability of transport basin. This situation has lead to widespread possibilities and the presence of raw protest campaigns from individuals, non- materials lead further to the establishment governmental organizations and scientists. of a great number of important industries. Their campaigns were so successful that articles appeared in major national Table 5-33 provides a general comparison of newspapers some even stating that the the Volga basin with two large European Volga is an open sewer and dying. river basin systems. Irrespective of differences, there are also interesting similarities. However, this chapter of the Vision shows that such a negative conclusion is not 58 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

warranted and that the Volga River is, with overheated in summer in these shallow all the needs for improvements, in general a areas, stimulating algal blooms and causing rather healthy river worth being looked after the accumulation and decay of organic and with bright prospects. matter. As a result, the ecosystems are transformed, and the biological balance is temporarily altered.

Aquatic biota and ecosystems After the construction of dams, those fish species (Caspian lamprey, beluga sturgeon, Today, the Volga River is not only a sevruga sturgeon, starred sturgeon) watercourse, but a water system controlled migrating upstream from the Caspian Sea by a cascade of reservoirs. The Volga-Kama disappeared from the Volga upstream of the system of reservoirs can store almost 200 Volgograd dam. Only two out of eleven dam km³ of water. Many years of operation of structures (Saratov and Volgograd) were the Volga-Kama cascade have shown that equipped with fish elevators. They are the original objectives set forth in the period reported to have zero efficiency. of their design and construction have been largely achieved. The system is of great The decline of the sturgeon population in significance for the national economy. The the Caspian Sea is caused by the reservoirs provide water and head for the disappearance of 80 percent of the generation of electric power at low cost and spawning areas upstream of the dams, the cover the peak loads in the power systems. changes in the level of the Caspian Sea, the The high-capacity reservoirs on the rivers reduction, from 120 million to 70 million ensure flood control and safety of the sturgeon fry through artificial reproduction, population and natural areas. The system and above all poaching. The poaching also has created also favourable conditions for leads to damage to the fishes that escape stable water supplies throughout the year to capture. Moreover, the genetic diversity of cover the needs of urban areas, industries, the sturgeon species is declining due to the and agriculture. Moreover it provides choice of standard fishes for artificial favorable conditions for the navigation of reproduction, the mass illness 1988-1989 large vessels. and intensive fishing. The water quality in the delta cannot be blamed, as this has A reservoir's impact on the water quality is improved in the last decade. ambiguous and subject to changes over time. For example, negative results due to a Biological diversity in the Volga River can slower water exchange in the reservoirs were be represented by its ichthyofauna. Before accompanied by better water quality the dam constructions of the Volga, parameters such as: transparency, colour, seventy-four fish species existed; at present content of suspended matters and underwater there are about eighty-eight fish species. vegetation. Bottom sediments in the reservoirs Twenty-three species inhabit the Caspian cause an accumulation of pollutants, heavy Sea (sturgeon, herrings and carps) and metals, pesticides, oil products and organic spawn in the Volga River; the other species compounds. This is clearly the negative are full-time residents of water bodies in the consequence of pollution, but were it not for Volga basin. reservoirs these pollutants would spoil the spawning areas in the Lower Volga and the After construction of the dams, the habitat for young sturgeons maturing in the populations of some permanent species, e.g. northern Caspian Sea. grayling, Volga carp, bullhead and others were reduced sharply; and currently there Shallow water areas in the reservoirs occupy are small local populations in some about 0.5 million ha out of 2.65 million of tributaries. Nevertheless, not a single fish the surface of reservoirs of the Volga-Kama species disappeared completely. Other system at design level. Water is sometimes populations became more numerous and Volga Vision V 59

Table 5-34 - Hydrobiological parameters of the Volga reservoirs (1998)

Phytoplankton Animal plankton Benthos

Number of Average Average Number Average Average Number Average Average species number biomass, of number biomass, of number biomass, of organ- mg/l species of organ- g/m3 species of organ- g/m3 isms, mill isms, isms, Reservoir cells per pcs/m3 pcs/m3 liter Gorky reservoir 120-140(70-75 15.32 3.44 55-75 18500 0.38 35-37 3307 25 green algae, (at the dam (at the dam 30-40 diatoms) 50400) 0.76)

Chebok- sary 140-165(80 green 20-45 0.93 -5.7 60-80 9,000-15,500 0.19-0.7 110-130 1840 4.31 reservoir algae,40 diatoms) (at the dam) (at the dam)

Saratov reservoir 18.08 1.59 2,400 0.027 1,639 21.76

Volgograd 70-95(45% diatoms, 40.76 4.54 10,490 0.259 3,239 13.78 reservoir 40% green algae, 16% cyano-bacteria Source: V. Naidenko extended their habitat zones. Populations situation where the natural water deals well of vendace and draft smelts from Lake with the pollution it receives (the B- Beloe migrated not only to all reservoirs in mesaprobic zone). The water is usually the Upper Volga but to all reservoirs in the transparent or slightly turbid, odour free Volga system. Many fish species which and generally not coloured. The waters are disappeared from the main rivers survive in characterized by a rich submerged the tributaries. As a result of lower pollution vegetation, abundant macrozoobenthos levels in the basin during the 1990s, these and coarse fish. The slight pollution or no populations increased and are still pollution zone is called the Oligosaprobic increasing (chars, dudgeons, minnows, riffle zone. This is the kind of water were minnows). Salmonid species thrive. The water quality in the Volga reservoirs is thus not ideal, but Since the 1980s, some species from the certainly not very bad either. White and Baltic Seas, as well as from the Black and Caspian Seas have appeared in Determination of the so-called saprobic the Upper Volga and migrated within this index is a specific method of evaluating the basin. state of water using biota. Its use for water quality monitoring has been applied The typical hydrobiological parameters of particularly in Eastern Europe because the Volga reservoirs presented in table 5-34 there the taxonomy of aquatic systems is are based on the research works carried out well developed. in 1998 by the State Scientific and Research Institute of Lake and River Fish Industry The saprobic index is a measure originally (SSRILRFI), the Institute of Biology of developed to indicate how well an Inland Waters of the Russian Academy of ecosystem has dealt with upstream Science and the Institute of the Volga Basin biological contamination from organic Ecology of the Russian Academy of Science. matter such as waste water discharged in urban area. At first, the receiving water Such an ecosystem assessment based on body is of very poor quality but then biota is the most objective method for the becomes gradually better due to the natural global evaluation of water quality. In this cleaning capacity of nature. The index system, moderate pollution is defined as a ranges from 1 to 4. A value of 1 represents 60 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

a very good situation and 4 stands for a very water purification technology is based on bad situation coagulation, sedimentation, filtration and disinfection. oligosaprobic S=1.0 to 1.5 Water fit for salmons Natural waters always beta-mesosaprobic S=1.5 to 2.5 Odour-free clear water with rich vegetation. contain certain amounts Coarse fish thrive. of chemical and alpha-mesosaprobic S=2.5 to 3.5 Dark grey water and smells rotten, floating dirty- biological substances grey masses. and some rivers have high concentrations of polysaprobic S=3.5 to 4 Anaerobic conditions, fish usually not present. these, depending on the natural circumstances. Source: Water Quality Assessments, 1992, UNESCO Classifying rivers as Table 5-35 shows that the Volgograd polluted, moderately polluted or highly reservoir was beta-mesosaprobic in the polluted without further information is years 1984 to 1989. therefore not very useful.

Table 5-35 - Saprobic index for the Volgograd reservoir Water quality in the Russian Federation is over the seasons and the years 1984-89 assessed according to the standards assigned to the potential uses of water Year Spring Summer Autumn bodies: for drinking water supply, fisheries 1984 - 1.90 1.88 and recreational use. The main rivers in the 1985 2.42 2.08 2.10 Volga basin are used for all of these 1986 2.18 2.03 1.88 proposes and current assessment of their 1987 2.28 1.99 2.06 quality is based on the strictest category of 1988 2.33 2.06 2.01 all Russian standards. Standards, which are the same nationwide, are in the form of 1989 2.05 1.92 1.96 MACs (Maximum Allowable Concentrations) Source: V. Naidenko of potentially harmful substances for water The saprobic indices measured in different intakes for drinking water supply. Many MACs places in the Volga Delta (SSRILRFI, 1984- are more stringent than corresponding 1990) are between 1.18 and 2.36, with most standards in OECD countries. measurements around 2.20. The composition and concentration of pollutants in surface waters depends largely on the type and intensity of human River water quality activities. In the Russian Federation, in order to avoid consideration of a large The UN Economic Commission for Europe number of water quality parameters, defines (river) water quality as "physical, assessment of surface water bodies is made chemical, and biological characteristics of by using the integrated water water necessary to sustain desired water contamination index (IWCI). IWCI is based uses". Hydropower production and navigation on a statistical method of water quality do not require high quality water. Irrigation assessment (itself based on two parameters needs a better quality while drinking, that are always measured , Biological fishing, recreation and habitat for aquatic Oxygen Demand [BOD] and Dissolved organisms require a still higher quality. Oxygen and four substances that are selected according the situation) and is used Approximately 85 percent of water used for by the Federal Service of Russia for drinking water supply in the Volga basin is Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of the taken from surface water sources, including Environment (Roshydromet). Table 5-36 the Volga River itself, although rural areas shows the quality of the main surface water rely mostly on groundwater. Widespread bodies in the Volga basin as assessed by the Volga Vision V 61

Table 5-36 - Classification of water bodies in 1997 according to Roshydromet

Moderately polluted Polluted Highly polluted Total length of Zone of the estimated river Volga basin courses, km km % km % km %

Volga basin 14,833 5,241 35.33 9,377 63.22 215 1.45 Upper Volga 2,973 1,610 54.15 1,363 45.85 0 0.00 Middle Volga 10,522 3,631 34.51 6,676 63.45 215 2.04 Lower Volga 1,338 0 0 1,338 100.00 0 0

IWCI. Map 5-5 on the surface water quality Basin is far from that described in alarmist in the Volga basin is presented in the Annex evaluation, such as in 'Ecocide in the USSR' (p.138). (1993) it is important to note that the Volga Basin, with its rich biodiversity and perfect The same river that would be called places for recreation and tourism is unique moderately polluted in the Russian in Europe". In a UNEP Newsletter it is said Federation would probably be considered as that: "In spite of increasing phosphorous reasonably healthy in Western Europe. loads, the water quality of the Volga and Kama Rivers is about an order of magnitude The Volga is therefore officially classified as better than that of two major western polluted by Russian standards and its European rivers, the Danube and Rhine". tributary, the Oka, as heavily polluted. Other publications praised the status of the Because no comprehensive official data on wetlands in the Volga Delta and noted that the water quality of the Volga basin are the water quality in the delta has improved available, there are many rumours and considerably in the last ten years. alarmist statements pertaining to it. Green Cross declares in its project description The alarmist statements on the status of that, "The creation of the artificial lakes the river have attracted university cascade on the Volga reduced the speed of researchers from abroad. In general their the stream and increased bacterial pollution measurements do not concur with the by more than 10,000 times". The World excessive negative expectation. An example Commission on Water for the 21st Century is the table in an article by Gremm, Heidt claimed that, "Up to 97 percent of the and Frimmel from Germany (Die grosse surface water in the Volga basin is Unbekannte: Qualitaet russischer Fluesse, considered unsafe as a source of drinking in Chemie unserer Zeit, 2002, Nr. 4). The water". The UK Rivers Network states that, data are reproduced in table 5-37. "There are so many chemicals in the water that the ponds don't freeze any more", and Table 5-37 shows that in the Volga only the that "Russia's black caviar has been largely DOC (Dissolved Organic Carbon) is higher affected by toxic chemicals that eat away than in the Rhine or the Elbe. DOC is a the sturgeons' flesh". The World Rivers measure for organic substances. Review has said, "The Volga River has become the nation's sewer...". The cry The Moscow River however is worse in "The Volga is dying" is heard quite often. quality than the Elbe, with which it can be Moscow News in June 2001 had an article compared in size and demographic entitled "Great Russian Killer River". pressures. The main pollutants are nitrates, phosphate, ammonium and some organic However, the Volga Water Resources compounds. Research Institute stated in an article of the European Water Association: "However, The main pollutants of the Volga and its the actual ecological situation in the Volga tributaries are organic substances, oil, 62 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Table 5-37 - Pollutant concentrations in the some Volga basin rivers, the Rhine and Elbe. The Volga data are downstream of Nizhny Novgorod

Parameters Moscow riverOka Volga Rhine Elbe

DOC in mg/l 6.9 5.8 8.5 2.3 5.6 Ammonium-N, mg/l 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.25 0.3 All - P, mg/l 1.7 0.25 0.2 0.17 0.3 Nitrate -N, mg/l 3.7 1.3 0.5 3.2 3.9 Cd, µg/l, 0.02 <0.05 0.03 0.07 0.15 Cr, µg/l 1.9 0.1 0.3 3.8 3.2 Cu, µg/l 8.5 6 2.7 5.3 6.1 Ni, µg/l 5.5 <2 2.6 3.5 4.2 Pb, µg/l 3.2 <1 0.8 1.9 10.7 Zn, µg/l 15.2 2.1 34 23 42.2 Hg, µg/l 0.05 <0.005 nm* 0.03 0.12

* Not measured nutrients, phenols, detergents, and heavy The following figures (Source: V. Naidenko) metals. Research performed within the present the Hydrometeorological Service frame of the Target Federal Program (Roshydromet) data on water quality of the "Revival of the Volga" shows that only 10- main rivers in the Volga basin for the years 30 percent of pollutants are being 1995 to 2000. discharged by the point sources (municipal and industrial waste water discharges) and The higher the Dissolved Oxygen (Fig. 5-5) the bulk of pollutants enters the water in the river, the better is generally the bodies from the non-point sources biological quality. Thus at all observation (agricultural and urban runoff). Point points in the basin, the oxygen concentration sources are meant here to be the official was satisfactory from 1996 to 2000. waster water discharges, all the other discharges are called non-point, including The BOD is a measure of the amount of thus illegal discharges. organic substances are in the water, the higher the BOD the more organic matter. If the organic matter comes from waste, than

Figure 5-5 - Concentration of dissolved oxygen in the rivers of the Volga basin (1995-2000) mg/l 12 1995 1996 1 1997 1998 1999 8 2000

6 summer standard

4 winter standard

2

0 Kostroma Klyazma Oka Oka Oka Belaya Vyatka Kama Volga River River River River River Holunitsa River River River River (6,9 km (0,3 km (13 km (0,7 km (at (0,7 km down (1,3 km (6,6 km (down down down above down Nizhny Ilynskoye down down Astrakhan) Bui town) Kovrov) Ryazan) Pavlovo) Novgorod) village) Vyatskie Sarapul) Polyany town) River, sampling point Volga Vision V 63

Figure 5-6 - The values for the Biological Oxygen Demand in the rivers of the Volga basin (1995-2000) mg/l

6 1995 1996 5 1997 1998 1999 4 2000

3

2 standard (fisheries)

1

0 Kostroma Klyazma Oka Oka Oka Belaya Vyatka Kama Volga River River River River River Holunitsa River River River River (6,9 km (0,3 km (13 km (0,7 km (at (0,7 km down (1,3 km (6,6 km (down down down above down Nizhny Ilynskoye down down Astrakhan) Bui town) Kovrov) Ryazan) Pavlovo) Novgorod) village) Vyatskie Sarapul) Polyany town) River, sampling point

Figure 5-7 - Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) values in the rivers of the Volga Basin (1995-2000)

mg/l 50 1995 45 1996 40 1997 1998 35 1999 2000 30 25 20 15 standard (water supply) 10 5 0 Kostroma Klyazma Oka Oka Oka Belaya Vyatka Kama Volga River River River River River Holunitsa River River River River (6,9 km (0,3 km (13 km (0,7 km (at (0,7 km down (1,3 km (6,6 km (down down down above down Nizhny Ilynskoye down down Astrakhan) Bui town) Kovrov) Ryazan) Pavlovo) Novgorod) village) Vyatskie Sarapul) Polyany town) River, sampling point

Figure 5-8 - Concentration of oil products in the rivers of the Volga basin (1995-2000)

mg/l 1.2 1995 1996 1 1997 1998 1999 0.8 2000

0.6

0.4

0.2 standard 0.1 (water supply) 0.05 0 standard Kostroma Klyazma Oka Oka Oka Belaya Vyatka Kama Volga (fisheries) River River River River River Holunitsa River River River River (6,9 km (0,3 km (13 km (0,7 km (at (0,7 km down (1,3 km (6,6 km (down down down above down Nizhny Ilynskoye down down Astrakhan) Bui town) Kovrov) Ryazan) Pavlovo) Novgorod) village) Vyatskie Sarapul) Polyany town) River, sampling point 64 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

the BOD is a measure of pollution. In general, reflecting the current water quality and the lower the BOD the better. According to providing information on anthropogenic Russian standards, the BOD for fisheries impact over preceding decades. In certain should be lower than 2 mg/litre, compared to hydrological and hydrochemical conditions, European Union standards for fisheries and highly contaminated sediments could be the wildlife that range from 3 to 6 mg/litre. source of secondary pollution of water due to the desorption process. The BOD figures (Fig. 5-6) of the same years for the different reservoirs of the Volga- Between 1995 and 2002 an assessment of Kama cascade often go above the 2 mg/litre heavy metal pollution of the Volga River limit, but do not exceed 4.5 mg/litre. and some of its tributaries (Oka, Moscow, Sura, Klyazma, etc.) was made based on The COD is another way to measure organic geoaccumulation indexes and in the substances in the river. The concentrations framework of the Russian-German of COD observed in surface waters over the international projects "Oka-Elbe" and world range from 20 mg/litre or less in "Volga-Rhine": the investigations showed unpolluted waters to greater than 200 mg/litre that the Volga is quite healthy in terms of in waters receiving effluents (Water Quality sediment quality. The Moscow and the Assessments; UNESCO; WMO; UNEP; et Klyazma Rivers are the most polluted in al. 1992). COD levels are therefore not very terms of sediment load. The situation is high in the Volga basin (Fig. 5-7). directly related to activity of a large number of enterprises of Moscow and the Moscow Some oil pollution in water bodies is region in the basins of these rivers. acceptable: in the Russian Federation, a Reduction of waste water discharge in the maximum of 0.1 mg/litre of oil products is 1990s reduced sediment contamination. allowed. Standards differ in other countries - in France, for example, they range from fFigure 5-9 (Annex, p.140) shows how the 0.01 to 0.3 depending on the river and the situation can improve in just a few years situation. Oil at such low concentrations is even in the case of the quality of sediments not dangerous to health, but still gives the in a river, in this case the Klyazma river in water an unpleasant taste and smell. the Moscow area.

The concentrations of oil products in the reservoirs of the Volga-Kama cascade are Comparison of the quality generally below 0.2 mg/litre, with a much parameters of the Volga and Rhine higher figure in some cases, such as a figure of 0.99 mg/litre in 1996 in the Cheboksary In terms of length, catchment area and reservoir (Fig. 5-8). annual discharge the Volga is the greatest river in Europe. It exceeds these attributes Similar figures can be drawn for the of the Rhine by far. However the basins of concentrations of nitrites and zinc. In both the Volga and Rhine have many similar cases one can see that the quality of the features in their respective development. river and the sediment levels in the reservoirs comply with European Union and The Rhine basin covers nine countries that American standards, although not always have high levels of economic development with Russian ones. and the Rhine River is one of the most important waterways in Europe. The Volga basin covers at least partly the territory of thirty-nine of the most developed oblasts of Sediment quality the Russian Federation and two oblasts of Kazakhstan. The Volga, and its navigation Quality of aquatic sediments is widely extensions, connects the Baltic, White, recognized as an important parameter Black and Caspian Seas. Volga Vision V 65

Figure 5-9b - Comparison of the main parameters of the Volga and Rhine

4000 3740 1600000 300 1358740

3500 1400000 3 254 250 3000 2 1200000

2500 1000000 200 2000 800000 150 1500 1320 600000 79 Length, km 1000 400000 Catchment area, km 189707 100 500 200000 Annual water discharge, km 0 0 50 Volga Rhine Volga Rhine Volga Rhine

Source: V. Naidenko and Michael von Berg The Rhine basin is densely populated and discharges. All riparian countries in the highly industrialized. Some 50.5 million Rhine basin have a high economic people live in this area. The basin of the development and they were all in a position Volga River comprises nearly 45 percent of to finance and to undertake effective the industrial potential of the Russian measures for recovery of the Rhine Federation, 50 percent of agricultural environment. Between 1970 and 1990 more production facilities and is home to about than 50 billion US$ were invested for the 57 million people. construction and reconstruction of treatment plants in the basin. This resulted In the Rhine Basin, 119 waterworks use in the gradual improvement of Rhine water bank-filtrated Rhine water to supply about quality: indeed, it improved to such a degree 20 million people with drinking water. that by 1990, salmon and sea trout had Approximately 85 percent of water for returned to the river. household and drinking purposes for the Volga basin is taken from surface water Adopted in 1987, the Rhine Action sources. Thus the water quality of both the Programme (RAP) clearly defined the Volga and the Rhine is a very important targets to be reached by the year 2000 issue. including: to allow higher fish species to return and live in the Rhine (sub- By the end of 1960s, pollution of the Rhine programme Salmon 2000); to guarantee became intolerable mainly due to industrial, further use of the Rhine as a source for agricultural and municipal waste waters drinking water; and to reduce pollution of that were discharged into the river without the Rhine sediments. or with insufficient prior treatment. By that time the Rhine had the reputation of being Figures 5-11 and 5-12 compare the "the most romantic sewer of Europe". The dissolved oxygen content, ammonia pollution of the river by organic substances nitrogen, phosphorus, zinc and copper had reduced dissolved oxygen content to concentrations in the Volga and Rhine below 2 mg/litre (minimal fisheries level Rivers. being 4 mg/litre). Due to acute oxygen deficiency, almost all aquatic life had The high figure for the concentration of disappeared from the Rhine. phosphorus in the Volga is noteworthy. For the other parameters the situation in the In the early 1970s however, programmes Volga is better than in the Rhine. were developed in the framework of the International Commission for the Figures 5-13 and 5-14 show the heavy metal Protection of the Rhine to reduce the concentrations in the sediments of the Volga industrial and municipal wastewater and Rhine Rivers. (G. Mueller et al. 1999). 66 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Figure 5-11 - Average dissolved oxygen content in the Volga and Rhine 10 9,8 9,6 9,4 9,2 9 8,8 8,6 8,4

Dissolved oxygen content, mg/l 8,2 8 Rhine (at Kleve- Volgograd res., Volgograd res., Bimmen, border 1995 2000 between Germany and the Nether- lands) average for 1993-1995

As for lead, copper and arsenic levels in southern part. Therefore the average runoff sediments, the high figure for the module in the Upper Volga area is more than concentration of arsenic in the Saratov 10 litres/s per km², compared to 2-5 litres/s reservoir of the Volga can be noted, but for per km² in the Middle Volga and less than the other substances the situation in the 0.2 l/s per km² in the Lower Volga. The Volga is better than in the Rhine. A similar average annual runoff of the Volga River is graph could be made for nickel and 254 km³, (254,000 million cubic metres). chromium concentrations. A cascade of large-capacity reservoirs on the Volga and Kama Rivers has been built to provide stable water supply, flood control Water availability and use and secure waterways for navigation. The total storage capacity of the reservoirs on Water availability the Volga at their design level is 187 km³.

The river runoff in the Volga basin consists Renewable groundwater resources in the of 55-65 percent melted snow, 10-15 Volga basin are estimated at about percent surface runoff, and 25-30 percent 40.05 km3/year, approved groundwater groundwater. Annual average precipitation exploitation is 7.86 km3/year. At present, ranges from 500 to 800 mm in the northern the total groundwater withdrawal in the part of the basin to 180-200 mm in its Volga basin amounts to 5.17 km3/year. Volga Vision V 67

Total water withdrawal Table 5-38 - Water use by sector in the Volga basin (million m3) from the natural water sources for public water Industrial Domestic Agriculture, Total water use water use irrigation supply in the Volga basin included is 6,442 million m3/year. (Protection of the Upper Volga 3,915 658 63 4,636 Environment). In 2000, 8,979 5,301 590 14,870 Middle Volga municipal waterworks Lower Volga 2,504 675 1,976 5,154 purified 64.3 percent of Total 15,398 6,634 2,629 24,661 total water withdrawal, Source: Protection of the Environment with 18 percent purified in the rural areas. In 1995 these figures were Water use 56.6 percent and 14 percent respectively.

Table 5-38 shows clearly the differences between the three geographic zones and shows that aggregations of average water Terrestrial ecosystems use over the entire basin would be misleading. But, even from this table it is Agriculture is the main influence on natural difficult at first sight to draw useful systems in the Volga basin today. conclusions. Water use means here all water Agricultural development is highest in the that is drawn from the river, whether it is steppe zone of the Lower and the Middle returned later to the river or not. If industry Volga (that is, the southern part of would thus use great amounts of water Samarskaya oblast and western coast of because there is any way enough, then Saratovskaya oblast , Orenburgskaya oblast industrial water use would be very high and Vologodskaya oblast) where it occupies while this would make not much difference between 75 and 90 percent of the total area, for the river downstream. and part of it is irrigated. The agricultural characteristics of the semi-desert and Water consumption is the water that is desert areas in the Lower Volga basin withdrawn from the river and not returned. (Astrakhanskaya oblast, part of the That covers only the water that is lost to Vologodskaya oblast , Kalmikiya republic) evaporation. In the Volga basin such loss differ to the other regions': the total area of comes mainly though irrigation, and it is agricultural development here is 60- currently estimated to be around 2 km3 67 percent of total land area, but only which is 2 billion m3. The real water use 8 percent of this is arable land. Most of the through consumption in the basin can be agricultural lands of the Lower Volga region estimated to be less then 1 percent of the total. are made up of dry steppe, semi-steppe pastures and flood plain meadows. From 1995 to the year 2000, industrial and domestic water use did not change much, Terrestrial ecosystems of the Volga basin but water use for irrigation decreased in all include a vast variety of animal species. the three regions, particularly in the Lower There are more than fifty species, which are Volga zone where irrigation is widely used for hunting including furry animals practiced. It went there from 3.4 billion m3 (squirrel, marten, fox, ermine, polecat, in 1995 to about 2 billion m3 in the year 2000. hare, lynx, wolf, brown bear), and near- water animals (musk-rat, beaver, mink and In the administrative region of the Volga desman otter listed in the Red Book. Ten basin, which is somewhat larger than the species of forest-inhabiting birds use the hydrographic basin, of the about 26 billion water for nesting, with approximately twice m3 total water withdrawal, about 4 billion as many species inhabiting meadows, m3 was from groundwater for industry, marshy plains, fields and steppes. domestic purposes and agriculture. 68 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Table 5-39 - Rare and endangered (listed in the Red Book) species of birds and mammals in the Volga basin

Species Latin name Genus Habitat Threats Protective measures Saker Falcon Broadleaf forests, mixed forests, The destruction of the habitat Existing specially protected areas, Falco cherrung pinetree forests, foothills of through agricultural cultivation establishment of specially Falco mountains. The bird tends to shy of steppes and forest-steppe protected areas which will away from dense forest areas, areas. The decrease of the encompass the habitat, boosting deserts and semi-deserts. volume of food available because the activities of the nursery of the regulation of the rodents farms. Raising the public population. Illegal capturing of awareness, fighting poachers. adult birds, taking of nestlings with the view to raising hunting birds, destruction of nests.

Golden Eagle Forest areas, big marshes, The destruction of the habitat, Existing specially protected areas. Aquila chrysaetus mountainous areas. process of decreasing of tall-tree Establishment of "calm zones" Accipitridae - forest areas. Food deficit. around the nests, poaching Hawks, Eagles and Kites Hunting by humans. fighting.

Great Bustard Steppes, agricultural land which Disturbance, ruining of eggs in Establishment of specially Otis tarda is not used. nests, the deterioration of nesting protected areas which will Otidida areas and feeding conditions due encompass the habitat, nursery to agricultural activity farms, poaching fighting. intensification. Poaching.

Short-toed-Eagle Temperate rain forests which The decrease of number of Existing specially protected areas Circaetus gallicus contain clearings and marshes. reptiles and amphibians, forest and artificial breeding. logging, drainage of forests, hunting by humans and disturbance.

Spoonbill Vast rush thickets, the areas Degradation of nesting marshes Protection of the Astrakhan and Platalea leucorodia around lakes, open shallow due to industrial use and burning other reserves. Starting to protect Platalea - ibises and waters. of rush thickets, regulation of the nesting areas, intensification spoonbills river flow and water deficit. The of poaching fighting. decrease of the volume of food available, poaching, disturbance.

Demoiselle Crane Dry steppes with rare grassy Agricultural cultivation and Existing specially protected areas, Anthropoides virgo cover, salt-marshes. There has degradation of traditional habitat creation of gene bank and nursery Cranes been a tendency of inhabiting - dry steppes. Cattle grazing farm. Designing protective agricultural land. which disturbs, poaching and measure geared to conditions in catching of chicks for zoo export. agricultural areas.

Sociable Plover Dry steppes which occasional Agricultural cultivation of Expansion of the existing network Chettusia gragaria grass cover, open banks of water steppes. of specially protected areas. Charadriiformes bodies.

Dalmatian Pelican Big and fish rich water bodies The decrease of the habitat due It has been included in the pelecanus crispus with vast rush thickets, to the river flow regulation and attachment to the Second Pelicanidae sometimes salty water bodies diversion of water for the Convention On international without surface water plants. purposes of amelioration. The trade in wild flora and fauna decrease of the amount of food species under threat of extinction. available, disturbance during the Establishment of protected area nesting time. where there is no commercial activity during the nesting time.

Imperial Eagle Forest-steppes and deserts: the The destruction of habitat Existing specially protected areas. Aquila heliaca necessary condition is because of the use of land for Intensification of the fight against Accipitridae combination of small forests and commercial purposes, ruining of poaching. Locating and vast open space. nests accompanied b poaching, protecting the remaining nests. hunting. Volga Vision V 69

Species Latin name Genus Habitat Threats Protective measures Pallas's sea eagle Near big water bodies not visited Competition against white tailed Establishments of gene bank. Haliaeetus leucoryphys by humans. eagle, disturbance, poaching, Intensification of the fight against accidental deaths in traps, poaching. poisoned bail, electricity lines.

White headed duck Relatively big fresh or salt water The decrease of the habitats due Banning the use of nets for Oxyura leucocephata bodies with rush thickets to the river flow regulation and fishing during summer breeding Anatidae surrounded by forests. During diversion of water for the purposes period. Preservation of water winter time - sea bays and of melioration. The tendency of bodies in drought-prone areas. unfreezed lakes. the keeping minimum water levels of water bodies.

Osprey Big water bodies surrounded by Decrease of the nesting areas Locating the nests and Pandion haliaetus tall-tree forests or pine tree because of the forest logging or establishing protective calm zones Pandionidae forests, big river deltas. cutting of some tall trees, around them, fighting the pollution of water bodies, illegal poaching. shooting, disturbance.

Tawny Eagle Open plains and hilly landscape, Intensive cultivation of steppe. Existing specially protected areas, Aquila rapax virgin soil, semi deserts. Decrease of the amount of food fighting the poaching. It has been Accipitridae available doe to the artificial included in the attachment to the lowering of the number of Second Convention On rodents. Increased disturbance, international trade in wild flora poaching and ruining of nests. and fauna species under threat of Deaths because of encounters extinction. with electricity lines.

Little Bustard Agricultural land which has not Degradation of the habitat Protection in hunting reserves, Otis tetrax been used for a long time, steppes because of the agricultural intensification of fight against Otididae or semi desert turning into steppe. cultivation and intensive cattle poaching, additional feeding grazing. Destruction of nests, during hard winters, designing a decrease of the area suitable for technology for artificial breeding winter time life, poaching, food in cages. deficit during winter. Black Stork Meadows, clay plains. Dense tall- Decrease of the feeding area, of Protection in reserves. Design Ciconia nigra tree forests in the marshy plains, the number of trees, poaching. and implementation of Storks alluvial land in the south of its preservation plans for some habitat in the Middle Asia. especially valuable marshy and forest areas. Preservation of some good trees, fighting poaching.

Russian Desman Otter Lakes, rivers which flow slowly, Alternation and intensive for Desmana moschata deep with no surface vegetation, commercial purposes of the Linnaeus talpidae reach in invertebrates and some habitat, poaching. place to hide on the shore.

Giant Bat Parks, broadleaf, sometimes The biological features lead to Does not need any special protective Nyctalus siculus coniferous forests. the specie's fewness. measures other then bringing the usage of pesticides in order. Baibak Parts of uncultivated grassy steppes Cultivation of steppe, reintroduction Banning the commercial hunting, Palunbo Marmota with ravines. Steep river banks. of forests, poaching. establishment of protected areas. bobak Muller Marbled Polecat Virgin steppes, agricultural land Cultivation of steppe, over Control of reproduction, keeping Vormelea peregusna which is not used so it can grazing, usage of insecticides. some reserve of animals in the Guldenstaedt regenerate itself, clay and sage- nursing farms. Mustelidaes brush deserts.

European Bison Broad leaf and mixed forests of Poaching (less and less now), Bison bonasus the forst steppe zone. scarcity of suitable habitat. Linnaeus Bovidae

Source: V. Naidenko 70 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

The threats that are mentioned most in the collected and taken into account. They above table are decrease of habitat, have a total surface comparable with decrease of food due to pest control, specially protected areas of federal insecticides, loss of habitat of the prey importance. population, disturbance by humans, hunting, poaching and illegal capturing, and About 6 percent of the basin's total area accidents such as collisions with powerlines. can be classified as a protected zone. The ploughed agricultural area covers 50- 60 percent, while the rest is forest and pastures. Specially protected areas The internationally available data for Some regions have in addition special different countries do not always allow for regional protected areas, for example good comparisons. The Russian Government Astrakhanskaya oblast, Kalujskaya oblast, lists only the highly protected federal areas Komi-Permyatsky AR, Permskaya oblast, (IUCN category I to IV), while some other Mari-El Republic, Mordovia Republic, countries list all protected areas (categories Tatarstan Republic, Ryazanskaya oblast, I to VI). Samarskaya oblast, Chuvashskaya Republic, Vologodskaya oblast, Novgorodskaya The situation in the Russian Federation is oblast have up to two protected areas, and better than table 5-41 seems to indicate: if Bashkortostan Republic, four protected one compares the national situation to the areas. situation in the basin, then a more reasonable figure would be around There are considerable areas of protected 6 percent. Specialists believe that the total natural territories of provincial and protected area needs to be increased in municipal value such as reserves, natural order to maintain the region's biodiversity. monuments and historical park complexes. The data on these territories still need to be

Table 5-41 - Comparison of major protected areas in Forests different countries in 1996 At least 23 percent of the total area of the Major protected areas as % Volga basin is covered by forests, mostly in of national territory Region the Upper and Middle Volga regions, as can be seen in table 5-42. Canada 9.5 Sweden 4.7 The influence of forest exploitation on Russian Federation* 3.1 natural systems is highest in the northern Kazakhstan* 2.7 and northeast parts the Volga basin, where The countries with an * list only areas in categories I to IV, while the others the economically exploitable woods list I to VI. Category I being the highest protected. (Vologda, Kostroma, Perm, Sverdlovsk Table 5-40 - Specially Federally protected areas in thousand hectares, 2000

Number of protected species* Number Total area, of sites thousand hectares Animals other birds plants fishes Zone than birds

Lower Volga 4 232.7 22-46 128-280 212-1,007 5-56 Middle Volga 31 4,260.9 22-319 126-251 146-1,295 9-60 Upper Volga 8 582.7 18-60 121-240 268-1,000 9-35

* The ranges indicate the lowest and the highest numbers of species in the different reserves in the zone Source: State report on condition and the use of land. Volga Vision V 71

Table 5-42 - Distribution of forested areas in the Volga classes (Class 1 being most hazardous and basin Class 4 the least). Most Class 4 waste would Forest area, Wood stock, not be classified as hazardous in OECD 3 countries. Region in thousand in million m hectares

Upper Volga 37,263.3 5,144.9 Some 94 to 95 percent of the waste generated in the Russian Federation is Middle Volga 42,348.2 5,761.5 considered industrial waste. In 2000, the Lower Volga 1,675.9 97.0 remaining 5 percent was derived from Source: Protection of the Environment agricultural and municipal activities. Metallurgy, chemical, petrochemical and area, Udmurtiya republic and Bashkortostan) coal industries are the largest industrial are concentrated. The wood-chemical, pulp polluters. Most of the industrial waste is and paper industries contribute to the non-hazardous resource extraction waste pollution of the water systems. and is largely unregulated. In 1997, industrial hazardous waste generation Timber-harvesting in the southern taiga amounted to 89.4 million tons, of which without forest regeneration changes the 39.1 million tons was used at source by the distribution of tree species. Today it is generators, 9.2 million tons was dominated by secondary small-leaved pine decontaminated and 17.2 million tons was and derivative forests. A significant part of transferred to other enterprises for further the bogs have been drained, yet the total treatment and disposal. Despite declining area of extreme humid soil has barely industrial activity in the 1990s, the volumes decreased because part of the cleared reported had increased (possibly as a result territories are swamped. of better reporting).

The natural landscapes are modified most Information collected at the regional level in the sub-zone of deciduous woods. tends to show some decline in hazardous Between 40 and 50 percent of territory is waste generation, reflecting the decline in tilled land, thus reducing the percentage of production. In Nizhny Novgorod, for forest lands to 30-40 percent. example, a 15 percent decline in overall hazardous waste generation was reported between 1996 and 1997, reaching over 50 percent in major industrial sectors such Waste production and pollution as chemicals where production had fallen significantly. Apart from a rate of According the 1999 report on the state of 51 percent reported in 1996, the rate of the environment in the Russian Federation, hazardous waste utilization has been the country is estimated to generate some relatively constant over the past five years, 7 billion tonnes of waste annually, reaching 43 percent in 1997. The proportion amounting to 80 billion tons of accumulated of waste treated, neutralized, or transferred solid waste. The largest proportion of this elsewhere for recovery or treatment has also waste originates from resource extraction, remained relatively constant, although particularly as waste rock from mining there has been a decrease in treatment of operations. With the exception of tailings Class 1 waste. An increased use of deep from uranium mining, most of this material burial as disposal option has been recorded. is not considered waste in OECD countries. (OECD) Organized collection of waste generation data is generally focused on non-radioactive In the Volga basin, in 2000, the total industrial waste considered to present an amount of hazardous waste generated was environmental hazard. The classification 41 million tons. Compared to total system used defines 140 generic waste types hazardous waste produced, the reused or which are subdivided into four hazard neutralized part reached on average overall 72 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

types of industry only 38.5 percent, with a accumulation of such material within maximum of 80.1 percent for black municipal treatment facilities was (ferrous) metallurgy. The Vologda region, estimated at the level of 200 million tons in where neutralization activities are fairly well 1993. Sludge lagoons occupy significant organized, stands out with a figure of land surface close to major urban centres. 60 percent. The Orenburg Oblast and the Use of sludge for soil conditioning is Republic of Bashkortostan present, restricted in many industrial cities because respectively, a corresponding ratio of 21 and of its high metals content. Sludge is 10.8 percent. In the Moscow and Ryazan produced by biological wastewater Oblasts, among others, not more than treatment plants which receive both 6 percent of the waste is treated or recycled. municipal and industrial wastewater. No In the Kostroma Oblast, waste neutralization national estimates of the amounts of is completely absent. biomedical waste produced are available. Few facilities within the health care system Dumping waste into landfills is widespread can adequately treat or dispose of in the Russian Federation compared to potentially infectious waste; observations of Western countries. About 70 percent of the MSW disposal practices indicate that some dumping sites comply with corresponding of this waste goes to municipal landfill official standards. Due to the insufficient (OECD for national data). number of official dumping sites (polygons) for storing and burying industrial waste, the Waste is also discharged as part of environmentally harmful practice of illegal processed water directly in the rivers. When dumping has become widespread. considering the wastewater discharge figures in table 5-43 below, it must be Municipal solid waste (MSW) generally recognized that industry uses large amounts encompasses domestic household waste, of water for production and discharges it non-hazardous waste collected from back to the river with low concentrations of enterprises, public cleansing waste and a waste material. portion of the industrial waste stream. Annual MSW generation in urban areas is Volumes of nuclear waste continue to grow. estimated at 50 million tons or 340 kg per The type and quality of radioactive waste capita, and 97 percent of this waste is facilities range from relatively sophisticated landfilled. This is consistent with data containment systems to various types of collected in various urban areas in the land disposal, lagoons and underground former Soviet Union (e.g. Moscow city and disposal of liquid waste. General concern region, 390 kg per capita; Dnjepropetrowsk, exists about these facilities' technical 330 kg; the Donetsk region, 300 kg; Kiev, adequacy and capacity (OECD). 290 kg; Rostov, 370 kg; Nizhny Novgorod, 270 kg; Petrozavodsk, 280 kg) (OECD for Although oil is by itself not a waste product, national data). it becomes a pollutant if it is going into the environment and that is frequently the case Sewage sludge amounted to 60 million tons due to insufficient maintenance of transport in 1996, representing a 5 percent increase facilities. The Target Federal Program over the amount reported in 1995. Total mentions that 30 percent of automobile

Table 5-43 - Wastewater discharges in million m³ within the Volga basin

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Region

Upper Volga 988.5 955.7 962.6 946.2 909.1 710.0 Middle Volga 10,792.7 10,448.7 10,413.0 10,248.7 10338.1 8662.5 Lower Volga 779.7 716.0 662.6 648.4 657.8 590.8

Source: Target Federal Program "Revival of the Volga" Volga Vision V 73

gas-pumping stations have been in The Russian Federation's role in global operation beyond their design service greenhouse gas emissions is considerably period; most of oil production equipment is different from that of advanced industrial worn out by more than 50 percent, as is one countries or other countries in transition: it third of the equipment in the gas industry. is responsible for 17 percent of the world's In oil-processing the share of the production greenhouse gas emissions, yet with assets no longer functioning optimally is 22 percent of the world's forested area, it estimated at more than 80 percent. plays an even more significant role in absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

From 1990 to 1996, energy intensity per Greenhouse gases unit of GDP increased by about 15 percent. In 1996, the energy intensity of the Russian As a result of human activity, emissions of economy was over 2.4 times higher than the so-called greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, average for OECD countries. Economic methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, etc.) restructuring, combined with the economic have increased. Accumulation of greenhouse downturn, has led to reduced energy gases in the atmosphere disturbs the efficiency. Manufacturing energy use per Earth's natural radiative balance, and is unit of output is up to twice the level in considered to lead to general warming of the western European countries (OECD). Earth's surface and global climate change. The OECD Environmental Figure 5-15 - Sources of greenhouse gases in the Russian Federation in millions review of 1999 for Russia of tons, 1994 mentions that despite 1800 sharp reductions in 1600 carbon dioxide emissions, 1400 the Russian Federation 1200 remains the world's third 1000 Power industry largest emitter from 800 Total energy use. There is 600 considerable potential 400 for greenhouse gas 200 reduction, as energy 0 efficiency is fairly low CO2 CH4 N2O Other gases Source: OECD and cost savings could be achieved through its In the Russian Federation, the thermal improvement. Large energy savings would power stations, burning natural gas directly, also increase the availability of fuel for bear the greatest responsibility, accounting export and help provide an opportunity to for up to 71 percent of greenhouse gases trade emission quotas. emissions.

After 1990, the Russian Federation experienced a recession in industrial production causing a sharp reduction in 5.2.6. Social and economic energy consumption and therefore in greenhouse gas emissions. Nowadays, the objectives development of nearly all industrial sectors is accompanied by an increase in Economic situation greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, reduction of greenhouse gas emission has become The following three tables give a comparison extremely complex and requires intensive between the economic situation in the financial, economic and political efforts. Russian Federation and selected countries. 74 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Table 5-44 - Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita that the country is not making sufficient use of its scientific potential to earn income. GDP per capita Country (PPP* US$) The table 5-46 shows that agriculture year 2001 brings in far more income as a percentage of France 23,990 Gross Domestic Product than in Western Poland 9,450 Europe, compared to services that earn Hungary 12,340 somewhat less, and industry somewhat Russian Federation 7,100 more. Although this is not necessarily a Ukraine 4,350 negative situation, it is likely that with increasing economic growth, the services Kazakhstan 6,500 sector will gain employees to the detriment * Purchasing Power Parity Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2003 of agriculture. Table 5-44 shows that in the year 2001 the The last column in the table shows that GDP per inhabitant in the Russian direct foreign investment is still very low, Federation was less than a third of Western which means that foreign investors distrust Europe's. When the GDP per inhabitant is either the economic possibilities or the low, it is much more difficult to find funds general business climate. for other sectors, like science or the environment, than for immediate basic needs. As far as the current socio-economic situation in the Volga basin is concerned, The table 5-45 shows that for the Russian the region is full of contrasts and Federation the percentage of high contradictions. On the one hand, there are technology exports as a percentage of regions with a sustainable industrial and manufactured goods is low, while the agricultural growth potential; they are primary exports as a percentage of attractive to Russian and foreign merchandise exports is high. This means investments (Moscow, Moscow Oblast,

Table 5-45 - Export and import data, 2000

Imports of goods Exports of goods Primary exports as Manufactured High-technology and services, as % and services, as % % of merchandise exports, as % of exports, as % of of GDP of GDP exports merchandise manufactured Country exports exports

Canada 41 44 30 64 19 United States 13 11 13 83 34 France 27 29 17 81 24 Hungary 67 63 12 86 26 Russian Federation 25 46 65 22 14 Kazakhstan 47 59 80 20 10

Source: World Bank Statistics

Table 5-46 - Economic data from World Bank Statistics Year Agriculture value Industry value added Services value Foreign direct added as % of GDP as % of GDP added as % of GDP investment, net inflow Country in million US$ in 2001

Netherlands 2000 2.72 26.50 70.12 51,239 France 2001 2.88 25.57 71.55 50,250 Hungary 1997 6.09 33.76 60.15 2,440 Russian Federation 2001 6.81 37.32 55.87 2,469 Kazakhstan 2000 10.48 40.91 50.45 2,763 Volga Vision V 75

Leningrad Oblast, Tatarstan, Samara Table 5-47 - Average monthly incomes in roubles in the Oblast, Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk Oblast). Volga basin On the other hand, there are depressed regions with a stumbling economy and Roubles 2001 insignificant investment levels (Ivanovo Regions Oblast, Ryazan Oblast, Ulyanov Oblast, Republic of Mari El, and Komi-Perm Upper Volga 2,324 Autonomous Area). Middle Volga without Moscow 1,972 Middle Volga with Moscow 2,434 Regional differences can also be seen Lower Volga 1,922 through incomes and wages. While in Whole Volga basin 2,226 Moscow the average wage was 5,516.1 rubles (2001), in the Komi-Perm attractive "showcase of Russian capitalism". Autonomous Area it was only 1,689.6 The total cash income in Moscow was rubles. In some regions (Chelyabinsk 12,136 roubles per person per month in Oblast, Orenburg Oblast, Republic of Komi, 2001 - i.e., 5.5 times more than the Volga and Bashkortostan) wage arrears (mostly basin average. caused by the private sector) became a serious problem potentially entailing social Real available incomes of the population for tensions. Unemployment rates vary greatly. the last ten years have decreased 1.8 times. While for the Central and North-Western In 2000 the income level was 55 percent federal districts this is not a major problem, that of 1990. Nevertheless, the dominant for the Volga, Urals and Southern federal trend has been one of improvement, due to districts it is a topical issue (particularly, for economic growth and the drop in Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Nizhny Novgorod unemployment. In the first half of 2000, Oblast, Penza Oblast Perm Oblast, Samara compared with the same period of 1999, Oblast, Chelyabinsk Oblast, Sverdlovsk real disposable incomes in the Russian Oblast and Volgograd Oblast). The demographic Federation grew by 8.2 percent, real wages situation is different as well. Although in by 23.3 percent, and real pensions by Kalmykia the demographic balance is 21.3 percent. This helped offset the effects positive (+0.5%), in some regions the of the 1998 crisis (when the economic situation is nearly critical: for example, in activity sharply dropped and the country Tver Oblast (-14.3%) and Tula Oblast (-14.2%). defaulted on external debts) to some extent, but was not sufficient to reverse the overall long-term deterioration. Similar figures are valid also in Volga regions. In Incomes 2000, compared with 1999, real disposable incomes increased by 12.46 percent, and in The average monthly incomes in the three 2001 by 13 percent as compared to 2000. zones in 2001 are given in the table below. The exchange rate was 25 roubles for a No changes occurred in personal income dollar, but prices for consumer goods were generation between 2000 and 2001: wages, lower than in Western Europe. The average including undisclosed wages, continued to income increased by 37 percent compared constitute the largest share of income in the to the year before. Volga basin (approximately 41.1 percent in 2000 and 41.4 percent in 2001). In this case Moscow stands apart. Owing to its status as the country's capital, its skilled labour, and developed transport and financial infrastructure, the majority of the Distribution of incomes country's financial resources are concentrated in Moscow. Moscow today is an "oasis of The period 1999-2000 saw complex and social well-being" and serves as a highly contradictory trends in the distribution of 76 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

incomes, with both improvements and Such a tendency can also seen in the Gini deterioration in living standards. The most Coefficient dynamics (see table 5-48). The acute social problems in the Russian Gini index is a composite index of income Federation were again the widening income distribution and is equal to 0 when the gap, reduction in real incomes as the result distribution is completely egalitarian. If a of inflation, continuing poverty among a society's total income accrues to only one large part of the population, emergence of person/household unit, leaving the rest with regional poverty zones, deepening of no income at all, then the Gini coefficient regional disparities in the standard of living, will be 1 or 100 percent. and in a number of cases, slowness of the social protection system to react to the The UNDP Human Development Report negative effects of the ongoing reforms. 2003 gives information about income distribution in different countries. Figures During the past nine years, the middle class for a selected number of countries are given has gradually been eroded and the gap in table 5-49. The table shows that in between the rich and the poor has widened. Russia, the poorest 10 percent of the people While the poorest quintile of the Volga have only 1.7 percent of the total income, basin population received approximately and the richest 10 percent have nearly 40% 7.4 percent of total money incomes in this of the total income. The Gini index shows period (1.25 times more than the average that the income distribution in the Russian level in the country), the proportion of Federation is the least egalitarian of the incomes of the second, third and fourth European continent and is even more quintiles decreased progressively. More skewed than in the United States. money incomes have been concentrated in the fifth, wealthiest quintile. Its share climbed from 38 percent to nearly 47 percent between 1992 and 2001. Poverty However, in 1998 and 1999, this gap stopped widening to a degree and even One of the causes of poverty in the Russian started to narrow. Federation is low wages for an increasing number of employees. In 1999, 42.2 percent

Table 5-48 - Development of the Gini index in the Volga basin from 1991 to 2001 Year 1991 1995 1998 2000 2001

Gini index 0.260 0.381 0.401 0.399 0.396

Table 5-49 - Income distribution in different countries in the second half of the 1990s

% of total income that is received by the given category

Country Survey year Poorest 10% Poorest 20% Richest 20% Richest 10% Gini index

Netherlands 1994 2.8 7.3 40.1 25.1 0.326 United States 1997 1.8 5.2 46.4 30.5 0.408 France 1995 2.8 7.2 40.2 25.1 0.327 Hungary 1998 4.1 10.0 34.4 20.5 0.244 Russian Federation 1998 1.7 4.4 53.7 38.7 0.487 Kazakhstan 1996 2.7 6.7 42.3 26.3 0.354 Ukraine 1999 3.6 8.8 37.8 23.2 0.290

Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2003 Volga Vision V 77

of all employees received wages at or below Table 5-50 - Distribution of poverty in the Volga basin the so-called subsistence level. The average ratio of the actual payment with subsistence % of people with incomes level in Volga regions in 2001 was Zone lower than subsistence level in 151.8 percent, ranging from 127.86 for the 1999 Upper Volga zone to 161.34 for the Lower Upper Volga 40.17 Volga and 166.1 for the Middle Volga. At Middle Volga (without Moscow) 44.78 present, a large number of people in the Middle Volga (with Moscow) 43.80 work force receive much less than 100 US$ Lower Volga 55.50 a month.

The officially accepted method for One sees from the table that poverty is very measuring poverty is based on the concept present throughout the basin and is most of absolute poverty, when the minimal widespread in the Lower Volga. needs for a particular level of social development required to maintain health and work capability and the selection of goods and services to meet these needs (the Unemployment so-called minimum consumer basket) are determined. The money value of the The growth of employment that began in consumer basket, the amount of obligatory the second quarter of 1999 helped to payments and charges in aggregates are overcome the negative trend in called the subsistence level. The number unemployment levels. At the end of and percentage of people with a money February 1999, 10.4 million people in the income below the poverty line are used as Russian Federation were jobless, more than officially established poverty indicators at any time since the market reforms began throughout the Russian Federation. in the 1990s. However, the official unemployment rate has remained For reasons connected with the country's surprisingly low throughout the reform socio-economic reforms and major changes years as statistics record only jobless people in the level and structure of consumption, a registered with state employment agencies. new approach to measuring poverty was The number of officially registered developed. In 1999 and 2000, the government unemployed people in the last three years passed a number of regulations, which has not exceeded 20 percent of the total included a Technique for Calculating the number of unemployed. The considerable Subsistence Level in the Russian Federation. gap between total and registered unemployment can be attributed partly to A quarter-by-quarter analysis of poverty in the lack of incentives for job seekers to the Russian Federation in 1998 to the first register as unemployed due to the low level quarter of 2000 shows that, due to the of unemployment benefit, months of delays August 1998 crisis, many more people were in benefit payment, and a complicated left with incomes below the subsistence registration procedure. level. Absence of any strategic line in social policy on incomes support has led to that a Due to economic growth and the share of the needy population (needy are all reorganization of the consumer-oriented whose incomes are lower than living wage sector, in the second quarter of 1999 cost), that decreased from 33.6 percent, in through 2000, both the total and officially 1992 to 20.8 percent in 1997 increased up registered number of unemployed people to 36 percent (41 percent by a new technique had been reduced. While prior to August of living wage calculation) in 2000. 1998 many enterprises and employees in this sector evaded taxes, after the crisis The table 5-50 sums up the poverty some employees had to settle for jobs with situation in the Volga basin. lower pay in the taxable sector. However, 78 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

not all employees sought permanent jobs. In According to figures of the Russian the first quarter of 2000, as the overall Federation Employment Program for 1998- number of filled vacancies at enterprises 2000, 7.5 million people in the country as a and organizations (except for small whole, or 11.6 percent of the total work businesses) increased by 1 percent force, are employed full time on a regular or compared to the same period of 1999, the irregular basis in the informal economy. In number of people holding more than one job times of economic hardship, the informal rose by 2 percent and the number of sector should be treated as a way of meeting employees working under civil law contracts demand for new jobs. But for the most part, by 10.4 percent. On the whole, in recent the informal sector is characterized by low years, the proportion and number of productivity, inadequate incomes and poor economically active Russians using flexible working conditions, little different from work schemes have been growing. But exploitation. frequently, the new jobs that are being created as a result of the current economic Table 5-52 provides some international upturn are unsteady jobs, with low pay and comparisons for unemployment and poverty inadequate social protection. between cities in the Volga basin and in selected European countries. The table 5-51 gives the situation in the Volga basin. The table shows that The table shows that in the large richer unemployment in the Volga basin decreased cities of the Volga basin, official considerably from 1998 onwards in all three unemployment is lower than in Berlin, but zones, but is still much higher than in 1992 that employment in the informal sector is with no clear sign of falling to the pre-crisis very high. level.

Table 5-51 - Percentages of the active population unemployed in the Volga

1992 1998 2000 2001

Upper Volga 4.59 12.84 8.79 7.69 Middle Volga 4.21 12.43 9.49 8.69 Lower Volga 5.85 19.00 12.87 11.93

Table 5-52 - Some international data on poverty and unemployment in cities

% households % of total Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment below the employed (male) (female) (total) locally defined population in City Country poverty line the informal

Ankara Turkey 14.94% 7.70% 6.40% 7.30% Astrakhan Russian Fed. 34.40% 20.20% 15.30% 16.60% 15.90% Berlin Germany 15.80% 13.70% Gdansk Poland 4.90% 6.00% 1.33% 2.29% 1.50% Kostroma Russian Fed. 26.70% 21.30% 12.90% 9.50% 11.20% Minsk Belarus 17.90% 0.70% 1.80% 1.20% Moscow Russian Fed. 17.60% 25.10% 4.90% 4.60% 4.80% Nizhny Novgorod Russian Fed. 21.50% 20.20% 9.60% 8.50% 9.10% Stockholm Sweden 5.60% 5.30% 4.30% 4.80% Vilnius Lithuania 16.00% 6.10% 6.70% 6.40% Source: State report on the Sanitary Situation, 1998 Volga Vision V 79

Astrakhan, Tver, Tula, Ulyanovsk, Ryazan 5.3.Other relevant and Kirov. Different studies in the basin have revealed more than 80,000 archeological matters monuments, including houses, burial grounds, and sanctuaries. From this number 12,600 objects are under the protection of the state. 5.3.1.Cultural heritage Gradual changes in the condition of cultural The Volga basin has a rich cultural heritage. heritage objects are documented in annual The rivers of the basin historically played an state reports on the situation of the important role in the migration of all kinds environment in the Russian Federation. of people and settlements rose on the banks According to the official data, in 2001 in the of rivers already more than thousand years Federation, more than 13,600 monuments ago. The rivers allowed communication of a historic and cultural value were under between various remote territories and negative influence of environmental factors, everywhere along these traditional trade including about 3,200 which were under the routes traces exist of ancient civilizations. influence of factors of natural origin, and more than 10,400 under the influence of The cultural heritage of this region is a factors of anthropogenic origin. During the significant and important part of the accounting period, based on incomplete multinational population's heritage of the data, ninety-eight monuments were Russian Federation as a whole. A number of irretrievably lost. 10,922 monuments and sites in the basin have the status of being of federal value and Among the country's most widespread as such are included in the Uniform State challenges are: visual infringements on the Register of objects of cultural value. Seven landscape, building and reconstruction of sites located in the Volga basin are on monuments without the appropriate UNESCO's World Heritage List. licenses, as well as the execution of repairs changing the historical appearance of The various climatic zones of the basin have monuments, especially characteristic of determined the technological variety of private owners or enterprises. constructions and types of buildings. Magnificent samples of wooden architecture It is estimated that about 4 percent of the from the seventeenth century onwards are Volga basin's cultural heritage objects are conserved in the northern part of the Volga lost every year. That is much more than in basin, well known for the quality of its the rest of the Federation where the loss is prized woods. Many museums of traditional estimated to be around 0.3 percent. Of national wooden architecture have been particular note is the loss of archeological established on the basis of these objects in monuments due to natural processes near various areas (Kostroma, Novgorod, the sea and the rivers Vologda, Vladimir and Nizhny Novgorod regions). Unique samples of stone The urban environment is often harmful to architecture are found in the middle part of monuments. About 625 settlements were the Volga. Archeological monuments subject to floods, 604 to landslides, 368 to prevail among various kinds of cultural erosion and gully formation and 137 heritage objects in the southern steppe settlements to karst problems. These zone. harmful processes seem to be on the increase because preventive engineering Ninety-six cities and rural settlements of the works are no longer executed in the Volga basin have the status of historical majority of the cities in the Volga basin. In settlements. Among then are Moscow, recent years, underflooding of urbanized Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan, Yaroslavl, areas due to rises in groundwater levels 80 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

occurred in 78 percent of the region's cities. number in the Federation, and the basin This flooding diminishes the structural contains eighteen of the country's twenty- safety of cultural heritage buildings and nine museum-manors. In a number of constructions. regions, the restored historical ensembles include parks, reservoirs and other During the last seven years, anthropogenic landscape components of these protected factors, with some exceptions, dominated territories. At the same time, the active over factors of a natural origin leading to process of destruction of historical damage to cultural heritage sites. Among landscapes is prevented, as in museum- the last ones, coastal erosion, transgression reserves, and their security zones improved. of the sea, landslides, and erosion play a special role. Monuments in the Republic of It seems that about 75 percent of cultural Kalmykia suffered from the increase in level heritage objects have some environmentally of the Caspian sea. related problems. In 2001, the most widespread issues concerning museum- Among the anthropogenic factors that reserves and museum-manors included: the harm cultural monuments are air pollution, growth of recreational visits, poaching, vibrations and other kinds of infringement visual infringement of landscapes, allowing of the geological environment. Consequences construction in the area of museums- of air pollution were especially sharply reserves and their security zones, cutting shown in the Novgorod area (more than 400 down of trees and bushes, other objects), Kirov area (more than 500 infringements in protection, absence of the objects), and the Kostroma area (more than property rights to the cultural heritage area 1,000 objects). and absence of legal rights for the actual borders of museum-reserves. The rise of groundwater level and the flooding of areas where water reservoirs and This tendency continued to reduce the channels have been constructed is an acute areas of city and country parks, objects of problem for cultural heritage sites, for landscape gardening art of the last example in such traditional places as centuries, manor parks and other protected Moscow, Suzdal, Vladimir and other cities objects of landscape architecture that play a of the 'Gold ring'. Deterioration of the large role in the ecological well-being of the condition of cultural heritage objects in the population of the Volga basin. The main Volgograd area is in many respects reasons for this extremely negative connected to the rise of groundwater levels phenomenon is the construction of new related to the functioning of the Volgograd buildings on the sites, actual destruction of and Tsimlyansk reservoirs, and the Volga- park landscapes because of lack of Don navigation canal. Construction of maintenance, as well as deterioration of the irrigating systems in the 1980s led to condition of the flora, leading to a loss of landslides on the banks of the rivers and the their recreational, aesthetic and social flooding of low territories. value.

In order to conserve the noteworthy places A process is underway to hand back in the Russian Federation, museum-reserves religious buildings to religious associations were created. These are large areas in the Volga basin. This process concerns all including not only monuments but also faiths. About one thousand temples, surrounding landscapes. Significant, monasteries, mosques, and synagogues are frequently unique museum collections and restored and new religious buildings are the most valuable monuments of being constructed. Restoration of religious architecture, history and nature, are buildings results in the recreation of the concentrated there. Forty-nine museum- architectural and historical skyline of many reserves are located in the Volga basin, Volga basin valleys. accounting for 55 percent of the total Volga Vision V 81

5.3.2.Education and Science while the percentage of GDP dedicated to education may be identical, the GDP per At the start of the third millennium, the inhabitant - and therefore expenditure per Russian Federation belonged to the world's student - may differ greatly from one most educated countries. The adult literacy country to another, as indicated in the table rate is more then 99 percent. The following 5-55. This table shows that Russian public tables show the indicators normally used by expenditure per inhabitant for education is the UN to describe a country's educational low. UNESCO statistics for 2000-2001 and scientific development. suggest an even lower amount of only 2.9 percent of GDP spent on public education Although the above statistics show that the which means that the public expenditure situation in the Russian Federation is per inhabitant was a mere PPP 206 US$. comparable to that of other countries, they Although these figures say nothing about are all expressed as percentages. Therefore, the quality of the education offered, they may indicate that it Table 5-53 - Education statistics in selected countries for gross enrolment and remains mostly theoretical students in natural sciences because there are Gross enrolment ratio, Gross enrolment ratio Tertiairy students in insufficient funds for levels 1, 2 and 3, in % in tertiairy education, science, math and in % engineering, in % laboratories and workshops. Country 2000-2001 2000-2001 1998-2000 Low salaries for teachers Netherlands 99 55 20 may also mean the France 91 54 25 educational system has Poland 88 56 ? difficulty attracting young Hungary 82 40 32 people. Russian Federation 82 64 49 Over the past ten to fifteen Source: UNESCO statistics and UNDP Human Development Report 2003 years, major changes have occurred in Russian Table 5-54 - Public expenditures for education and composition by level in selected countries education, affecting every aspect from forms of Public education Public education expenditures as % of ownership and financing, to expenditures in 1989-2000 total 1990-2000 curricula and educational As % of total methods. As % of GDP government Pre-primary Secondary Tertiary Country expenditure For the Volga basin, as Netherlands 4.8 10.7 30.9 39.8 29.3 for the whole country, France 5.8 11.5 31.4 49.5 17.9 the population has Hungary 5.0 14.1 36.8 46.3 15.5 typically obtained a high level of education but Russian Federation 4.4 9.6 23.2 57.4 19.3 distribution of services is Ukraine 4.4 15.7 14.4 53.1 19.9 uneven within the Source: Human Development Report 2002 and 2003 territories of the basin. Higher education is still Table 5-55 - Public expenditure for education in selected countries among the population's Public education GDP per capita Expenditure on public main priorities and the expenditure in (PPP US$) education per country has a huge 1989-2000 as % of in 2001 inhabitant in PPP Country GDP US$ scientific potential including human resources for United States 4.8 34,320 1,467 advanced technologies. France 5.8 23,990 1,391 Hungary 5.0 12,340 617 Economic instability in Russian Federation 4.4 7,100 312 recent years has led to Poland 5.2 9,450 491 insufficient funding of Source : Human Development Report 2003 82 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

most educational and scientific institutions this limiting their capacity for and programmes. There is now a clear crisis professional growth. in the fields of education, culture and science. The material base of many The environmental education system is educational and scientific institutions has based on such Federal Laws as become obsolete and worn out, and not all "Environmental Protection" and "About institutions can afford repair and Education". The concept of continuous maintenance. A gap in equipment standards environmental education for different age between the central and provincial scientific groups has been proposed. It addresses and educational institutions is evident, with three levels, including education in schools the result that there is less possibility for and universities and complementary studies people from the provinces to participate in for adults and is supported by state international and even Russian scientific authorities. programmes, workshops, or training courses. Some schools have special classes with more The shortcomings of the education system in-depth treatment of environmental at present include: sciences. Several universities in the Volga region offer courses in Ecology, Natural • Lack of funds, which restricts the Resources Use and Environmental development of educational institutions, Protection and related subjects. In addition, introduction of up-to-date educational regional centres for ecological education methods, provision of modern equipment, and other organizations, both public and the ability to attract highly qualified private, carry out training seminars, staff, etc.; conferences and expeditions studying local flora and fauna. Some of these centres have • Poor collaboration between educational their own journals and newspapers where institutions and industry, which limits the teachers and scientists can publish possibilities of graduates in finding environmental articles. appropriate jobs; The environmental education system gives • Separation between research and school children, students and interested teaching, because research is executed adults sufficient environmental knowledge, outside the universities in institutes of the but as a rule the knowledge is too academies of science; theoretical. As a result, most people do not yet have an environmental culture leading • The existing labor market is not to a sense of stewardship for the sufficiently researched which leads to environment and do not consider surplus of specialists of certain professions themselves a part of nature, but part of and lack of other specialists; society only. Thus people do not feel responsible for the country's environmental • Big differences in possibilities to obtain a situation and tend rather to delegate good-quality education between populations environment protection functions to the in central oblasts and provinces, large state and local authorities. cities and rural areas, people with high and low income; The scientific establishment in a country is of basic importance for the organized • Crisis of the post-graduate education pursuit and maintenance of knowledge. In system, constraining professional growth the environmental field this means of employees; and knowledge about the status and the functioning of ecosystems as well as • Weak integration of educational and knowledge about matters that influence the scientific institutions into international environment such as industrial production programmes and scientific communities, processes. There are no international Volga Vision V 83

statistics about the capacity of the scientific mean that the large majority of specialists establishment in the Russian Federation can only do theoretical paperwork and little that are specific to the environment. The new knowledge based on surveys or tables below give an impression of the experiments is being generated. general situation in Research and Technology in the country. Environmental data and knowledge are dealt with in subchapter 5.3.3. 5.3.3. Environmental data and

The table 5-56 shows that the receipt of scientific information royalties and licence fees per person and also per researcher is rather low in the Information is defined here as knowledge Russian Federation. Among other things, that reduces uncertainty in decision-making this may mean that Russian Research and and/or helps to better understand the Development is not contributing as much as society and environment in which we live. it could to the creation of wealth. Information is useful if it influences a decision and/or if it allows us to optimize The table 5-57 shows that while the Russian the benefit/cost ratio of our activities. Federation has a great number of high-level Information can also be defined as a set of specialists in Research and Development, items of knowledge organized for a purpose. these specialists have very few funds with which to work. Such conditions may well Knowledge is generally sought to increase our understanding of the Table 5-56 - Technology: diffusion and creation world. By itself this is a good reason for each Internet Patents Receipts of R&D Scientists individual to receive and users per granted to royalties and expenditures and to process information: 1,000 people residents licence fees as % engineers in per million US$ per of GDP R&D per an informed individual is people person million people better able to both Country 2001 1999 2001 1996-2000 1996-2000 exploit and protect the Finland 430 1 112.5 3.4 5,059 environment. France 264 195 42.3 2.2 2,718 Poland 98 26 1.2 0.7 1,429 The same is true for groups of individuals, Hungary 184 30 9.4 0.8 1,445 societies, countries, etc. Russian Federation 30 105 0.4 1.0 3,481 The environment should Ukraine 12 12 0.1 0.9 2,118 be exploited in an Source: Human Development Report 2003 organized way so that both the society and the Table 5-57 - Expenditures for Research and Development environment can be sustained. Knowledge R&D GDP per R&D Scientists and Expenditures then is not only an expenditures inhabitant expenditures engineers in per scientist as % of GDP in PPP US$ per R&D per and engineer individual affair, but inhabitant million people in PPP US$ knowledge becomes an (calculated) per year issue for society. Thus Country 1996-2000 2001 1996-2000 (calculated) society has an interest in Finland 3.4 24,430 831 5,059 164,000 promoting the pursuit of France 2.2 23,990 528 2,718 194,000 knowledge. Poland 0.7 9,450 66 1,429 46,000 Hungary 0.8 12,340 99 1,445 69,000 Science (that is organized knowledge) is often seen Russian Federation 1.0 7,100 71 3,481 21,000 as an intrinsic good, but in Ukraine 0.9 4,350 39 2,118 18,000 most cases governments, Source: Human Development Report 2003 84 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

because they have to levy taxes to finance and is evolving. However, the present scientific activities, have to give preference monitoring information is not sufficient to to knowledge that leads to increasing provide decision-makers with efficient economic gains and minimizing losses, environmental policy advice, and it does not sustainability of the society and the world at have an important role in increasing public large, including the survival of certain awareness. Moreover, the information it animal and plant species. provides is often understandable only by specialists. Countries normally establish special institutions to increase, maintain and In the Russian Federation, the public tends spread knowledge. However, their income to rely on official mass media for obtaining and in general their existence is only environmental information. Meanwhile, possible if the society at large is convinced according to the annual opinion polls of the of their usefulness. Thus scientific Institute of Social and Political institutions need to be able to define their Investigations of the Russian Academy of tasks in a framework that makes sense to Sciences, 50 to 60 percent of the managers governments and legislators or whoever of regional environment protection services determine the flow of funds. consider that ecological information given by the central and regional mass media is In 1985 the Soviet Union introduced the too sporadic to be very useful. State Environmental Review system. It aimed to assess and set permissible levels Information obtained from current for the environmental impact of projects ecological monitoring systems in the Volga and regional development schemes. The basin is also important for conducting process included environmental appraisal environmental protection activities. However, reports, which are similar in many ways to the information does not fully meet the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requirements for the implementation of reports. This system still exists today. The science-based, effective management Russian Federation's 2000 EIA regulation decisions aimed to regulate anthropogenic contains detailed provisions on the format pressures on the environment. The main and timing of public participation at all shortcoming is the impossibility of stages of the EIA process. conducting a comprehensive data analysis because the monitoring systems are not The Russian Federation disseminates oriented towards such analyses. For aggregate environmental information, example, information coming from the although specific data by company or monitoring sub-systems often does not facility are usually not disclosed to the match the necessary spatial and temporal public. The Ministry of Natural Resources requirements. has an Internet web site and publishes annual environmental status reports Often the lack of timely ecological providing information from industrial information prevents quick and adequate sectors as well as indicating the amount of action to detect pollution sources and apply pollution they produce. As environmental appropriate measures and sanctions. The NGOs become more active it is expected present organization of information that they and the public will use this exchange and the absence of mobile devices information more and more. to conduct observations cause difficulties in organizing operational interactions of The existing state ecological monitoring environmental agencies. This ability to system was established by the Federal Law react promptly to incidents of high and On Environment Protection as the primary extremely high pollution levels is hampered. source of ecological information in the country. It may therefore be said that an Many of the available sources of ecological environmental monitoring system is in place information are based on different and often Volga Vision V 85

incompatible reporting standards (forms, In short, the environmental monitoring formats, protocols, transfer regulation, system needs to be redefined to provide ways and forms of storage). information which would and could influence decisions. Other common complaints about the present system include the following: The following statements summarize the main issues. • Significant volume of information is not processed and stored in electronic form; • The knowledge gathering and processing system is seriously under-funded and it • Additional information sources available may not function effectively. are not used sufficiently (data of observations obtained by scientific and • Although not generally admitted, there research institutions, data provided by seems to be a very serious backlog in non-governmental organizations, data of knowledge about the environmental scientific, research, experiments and situation. Since 1991, except through design data); some externally financed projects dealing within some specific regions, very limited • Unified regional standards concerning surveys have been carried out by Russian quality of environments (water, soil, specialists with the result that most sediments, air, etc) are not elaborated environmental information dates from and applied; before 1990. Consequently, the available information may not reflect the present • Data collected at present from existing situation and no trends can be reliably traced. monitoring sub-systems and types are not integrated due to the absence of • To be able to manage the environment, it criteria and methods; is necessary to have good knowledge about the human-related factors that • Ecological information going to the impact on the environment, such as public is often not adapted to its industrial processes. perception level which leads to ambiguous interpretation of data including those • As the financial burden for cleaning up presented in the mass media; the environment is to be equitably distributed, it is necessary to have • Public access to information is limited; information that is freely available to all parties concerned. Confidence is based on • Access is very limited when it concerns realistic information. "closed subjects"; • Monitoring, information processing and • There is little exchange of information presentation are often conducted based on between sectors; and norms and standards which are not discussed with stakeholders, are too severe • There is a lack of scientific information compared to international standards and on the cause-effect relations between can not be complied with. This leads to pollution and biodiversity, public health, the production of knowledge that is not environmental impacts, etc. useful as policy-relevant information.

Moreover, structured and targeted • Large amounts of data are not processed information sharing between the regions is with a clear purpose in mind. lacking, and when it occurs, then it is mostly due to personal contacts of involved • Results of monitoring are often given in a staff members and not the result of an form that does not make sense to non- institutionalized information sharing process. specialists. This is often done deliberately 86 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

to keep discussions away from societal The programme is budgeted by objectives questions. However, the result is a vicious and by ministry or administration. The total circle that perpetuates the problem of budget was 140 billion 1998 roubles of monitoring done in a vacuum and which which the Federal Budget takes 11 billion, is therefore performed without any the regional administrations 81 billion and reference to social needs. other sources 48 billion.

• Although access to information has The originally foreseen final results are improved since 1991, the fear remains summarized as follows: that by making information available, it may be misused. Clearly, information is • Termination of polluted wastewater still seen as something that should be discharge into natural water bodies; controlled tailored to suit political goals. • Providing safe drinking water supply; • The lack of free availability of data means that these data can not be verified by • Reduction of specific drinking water other scientists. consumption by 20 to 25 percent;

• Scientific articles tend to avoid giving the • Reduction of consumption of drinking original data and only present the results. water for industrial use by 35 to 40 The conclusions derived from them are, percent; therefore, often considered as unreliable because the sources can not be checked. • Reduction of industrial atmospheric emissions from stationary sources by 1.9 times; 5.3.4. Other major related pro- • Reduction of motor transport air pollution by 1.7 times; grammes, projects and • Increase productivity of fisheries in activities in the Volga basin reservoirs by 2;

There are very many Russian and • Extension of migrating and semi- international activities related to the migrating fish reproduction by 30 to 40 environment of the Volga basin. This percent; section focuses on those which were considered most important during the • Realization of optimum operation development of the Vision concept. regimes on the reservoirs of the Volga- Kama cascade;

• Creation of a basin wide network of Target Federal programme "Volga nature and environmental monitoring; Revival" • Providing for the production of The full title of the programme, which was environmentally safe agricultural produce; approved in 1998, is "Rehabilitation of ecological situation in the Volga basin and • Forming a network of special nature its tributaries, restoration and preventing protection areas in the Volga Basin up to degradation of natural complexes of the 3 percent of the total area of the basin; Volga basin for the period up to 2010". A summary of the programme was published • Upgrading and construction of storm in English in 1998 by the Ministry of Natural water collection systems in towns and big Resources of the Russian Federation. industrial sites; Volga Vision V 87

• Elimination of illegal industrial and and Information Management Theme. The domestic waste dumps; data loaded into the system were prepared by the responsible persons nominated by the • Creation of a network of facilities for national focal points. processing and recycling of wastes; and CEP has done research and presents • Establishment of a system of continuous information, among other matters, on the ecological education in the Volga basin. interactions between the Volga Delta and the Caspian Sea and the possible impacts of This is an important programme for the climate change on the discharge of the sustainable development of the Volga basin. Volga River into the Caspian Sea.

The most detailed part of the programme is Another UNDP/GEF project was "Integrated the budget. The results described above are conservation of wetlands biodiversity in the very good as general objectives. There is Lower Volga". certainly a kind of vision behind the project, but it is not formulated and therefore it is not always clear what the socio-economic purpose or the result of the proposed The European Union and the Volga measures is. For that reason, it is also difficult to determine the relative priorities The European Union is supporting of the different measures. For example the environment-related projects that are a effort to improve the quality of drinking cooperative effort between universities and water is much more important for public research institutions from the EU and the health than reducing the consumption of Russian Federation. TACIS is one such drinking water. programme. Normally these projects - several of which focus on the Volga basin - Some of the results will certainly not be are financially small-scale and related to obtained by 2010, such as "termination of education and research. polluted waste water discharge" and "providing all people with safe drinking One example is the "Environmental water". Management Training in the Volga Basin" project, which comprises the development of need-based software material and training-of-trainers in a concrete model. The GEF Caspian-Volga project United Kingdom and French institutions cooperated. The Caspian Environment Programme (CEP) is a cooperative effort of the littoral The European Community also financed a countries of the Caspian Sea. Supported by study by French, German and British the Global Environment Facility (GEF) research institutions in cooperation with the which is managed by the World Bank, State Hydrological Institute (SHI) in St. UNDP and UNEP, the programme is also Petersburg entitled "Hydrological and supported in the framework of the Hydrodynamical Studies and Predictions of European Union Technical Assistance to the Caspian Sea Water Level Rise. Impact CIS countries programme ( TACIS ). of climate factors and man's activities (CASSEAS)". This project uses different A comprehensive Caspian Sea Information Global Circulation Models to study a range System (CaspSIS) on human resources, of scenarios of climatic and land use change institutions, databases (data sets), in the Volga River basin. According to the programmes and projects, as well as a scenarios, which are based on Russian Caspian Sea Bibliography is being models and include the SHI palaeoclimatic developed in a framework of the CEP Data one, annual precipitation in the basin is 88 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

expected to increase between 1 and between regions as far as Scandinavia and 10 percent in the years ahead. Asia. The Volga Route refers to the way from Tehran via the Caspian Sea and the Volga River, to St Petersburg and the Baltic Sea, to Oslo. The international project Russian-German scientific coope- "Great Volga Route" was established in the ration in the Volga basin framework of preparations for the thousandth anniversary of the founding of Between 1997 and 2001, within the Kazan, Tatarstan, in the Russian framework of a Russian-German research Federation. project "Volga-Rhein", which has succeeded the "Oka-Elbe" project, sediments were The initial phase of the programme (2001- analysed in the eight cascades of the Volga 2004) is being carried out mainly through River with their corresponding water annual international conferences held on reservoirs between the Valdai hills and boats that travel between the cities of the Astrakhan, and in the three most important Volga Route. The project is dedicated to tributaries of the Volga River: Kama, Oka the history of the Great Volga Route, and to and Sura. seeking solutions to the cultural, ecological, social and economic problems among the Volga Route's cities' and regions.

The related activities of the In October 2003, the UNESCO General UNESCO Chair in Nizhny Novgorod Conference decided that the Volga Route Project would be executed in the framework Since 1997, the Nizhny Novgorod State of the UNESCO Volga-Caspian Initiative, of University of Architecture and Civil which the this Volga Vision exercise is the Engineering has hosted the UNESCO Chair first step. on "Ecologically Safe Development of Large Regions - the Volga Basin". Professor V. V. Naidenko is the Chairholder. Within this framework, courses of relevance to large 5.3.5. Case study: Ecosystem river basins, including the Volga basin are provided. There are also many other and natural resources activities related to the Volga in the framework of the UNESCO Chair and the management: context of Russian initiatives. the Lower Volga, the A publication of direct importance for the Volga Vision effort is the publication (in Delta and the coastal zone Russian) in 2003 of the book on the Volga (ISBN 5-901915-01-2) by prof. V. V. Naidenko The UNESCO Volga-Caspian Initiative entitled "Velikaya Volga". The publication concerns both the Volga River basin and the consists of two volumes and contains a Caspian Sea and its basin. A space image of wealth of environment-related data and the Volga Delta and the northern Caspian information. It is considered the most Sea is presented in map 5-6 (Annex, p.139). comprehensive monograph on the Volga basin. The environment-related vision for the Volga basin is the first activity of this initiative. The link between the river and the sea is in this case the Volga Delta which The Volga Route project carries 80 percent of the freshwater inflow to the sea with the usual nutrients and For some 3000 years at least, the Volga has polluting substances. facilitated the exchange of goods and ideas Volga Vision V 89

As previously mentioned, the global activity. In general the region has a large importance for biodiversity of the Lower potential for tourism development. Volga region and especially of the Volga However, ineffective management of delta is widely acknowledged. The wetland tourism and recreation may lead to habitat is considered to be the best destruction and degradation of nature, conserved in Europe. Part of the Delta is the decline in natural reproduction of the fauna Astrakhan Biosphere Reserve and and flora and physical disturbances of approximately half of the Delta has been ecosystems and individual species. designated a Ramsar Site (800,000 ha). In the region there are fifteen rare bird species The perceived environmental problems in listed in the Red Book of the Russian the delta include: decline in commercial fish Federation. Relict plant species listed in the stocks; deterioration of environment Red Book of the Russian Federation occur quality; degradation of coastal landscapes; in this area together with at least twenty loss of coastal habitats; loss of biodiversity; endemic fish sub-species. Three globally and decrease of the health of the significant bird migration routes run over population. the Volga Delta, serving millions of waterfowl of many dozens of species. It is The Volga Delta is in and surrounded by estimated that 7 to 10 million water birds Dagestan, Kalmykia and the Astrakhan use the area in spring and fall respectively. oblast. The socio-economic situation is much more desperate than in most parts of The importance of the Lower Volga region other Russian regions. The reason stems is growing in the field of oil and gas from the previously very low level of exploration and extraction. In general, gas economic development as well as the social reserves in the Astrakhan oblast alone are and political instability in the Northern estimated at 6 trillion m3, condensate - Caucasus. 1.2 billion tons, oil - 7 million tons. At present, about 10 percent of oil and An agricultural economy prevails in condensate and approximately 6 percent of Kalmykia and Dagestan. Priorities for the total gas production in the Russian economic development in the Astrakhan Federation is extracted here. It is estimated oblast are oil-and-gas extraction and that, at current rates of extraction, the processing, pipeline transportation, ship- largest Astrakhan gas condensate deposit building and ship repair, fuel industry and may be exploitable for 100-150 years. The fisheries. extractive sector provides a large potential for development of the infrastructure and Table 5-58 gives figures for industrial associated sectors. According to economic production in the three regions, expressed in forecasts, development of the oil and gas billion rubles of produced value. The table industry would provide tens of thousands of shows the importance of the fuel and energy jobs in the region, which would help to sector and to a lesser degree that of the food reduce the level of local unemployment and industry. The high figure for the percentage social tension. of unprofitable enterprises does not mean

Individual, non-group Table 5-58 - Regional industry structure, 1999 (data in billion rubles) tourism has long been an attraction for both locals Indice Dagestan Kalmykia Astrakhan oblast and outsiders. The major Commodity production 10.6 attractions include fishing, 3.8 0.9 hunting and recreation. Energy production 25.3 36.7 n/a Extensive development of Fuel industry 15.7 23.1 32.7 commercial tourism is Engineering industry 14.1 6.0 12.4 emerging in the region as Food industry 22.3 20.0 23.6 a new type of economic % of unprofitable enterprises 64.8 71.5 47.0 90 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

good quality water and Table 5-59 - Regional Human Development Index for 1999 have no treatment plants. Due to sea level GDP per Life Combined Income Life Education capita by expectancy education index expectancy index rise the problems of PPP US$ at birth, gross index ground water pollution years enrolment have increased and Region index, % productivity of coastal Russia 7,473 66.0 0.740 0.720 0.683 0.910 pasture has declined. Republic of Dagestan 2,493 70.1 0.786 0.537 0.752 0.925 Astrakhan Region 5,142 66.1 0.736 0.658 0.686 0.909 The common problem Republic of Kalmykia 3,088 66.0 0.790 0.572 0.684 0.927 of socio-economic development in Kalmykia Source: Human Development Report 2001 for the Russian Federation and particularly of its that these industries are not useful; the coastal area is the poor condition of its figure is more an indication that in industrial and social infrastructure. The Dagestan and Kalmykia the economic following challenges have been identified: reforms have not yet taken root. • There is no reliable transport connection The Russian Federation publishes Human with neighbouring regions; Development Indices, based on the methodology of the Human Development • The existing drinking water distribution Reports of UNDP. Table 5-59 gives the system for inhabitants and industries is in statistics for the three regions that form the a very bad state and often delivers economic zone of the Volga Delta. Analysis contaminated water; of the data in the table shows that the Caspian regions have rather low ratings • Power supply systems have become when compared to the seventy-eight regions obsolete, and some are in a state of of the Russian Federation. The Caspian emergency, especially in the flooded region is characterized by high demographic coastal zone; and heterogeneity, a multi-national population, significant differences in the labour market • The level of gas supply, irrespective of the and lower levels of urbanization than the natural resources remains the lowest in rest of the country, as can be seen in table Russia - only 5 percent. 5-60. Compared to other Caspian regions, the A dangerous public health and epidemiological Astrakhan oblast has a relatively high level situation has developed in Dagestan, where of financial and economic development. the occurrence of typhoid fever is fifteen However, the housing situation in the oblast times higher than the Russian Federation as is fairly bad, and slow to improve. Only a whole. This is largely connected to some 30 percent of houses in the oblast are unsatisfactory drinking water supply, and supplied with water, sewage, and central pollution of water sources from waste heating, and that figure drops to less than discharges. The drinking water treatment 10 percent in the coastal zone. In rural capacity in Dagestan constitutes only about areas, no more than 10 percent of 50 percent of the necessary volume. Over households are supplied with gas. 76 percent of food production enterprises are not provided with a sufficient volume of With regard to recreational facilities, the Russian coast is unevenly Table 5-60 - Volga Delta zone urbanization levels (% of urban population) and in general insufficiently

Average in Russian developed. The heaviest Dagestan Kalmykia Astrakhan oblast Federation recreational loads fall on the Volga Delta and the 42 39 67 73 coast of Dagestan. Volga Vision V 91

Over the last ten years, public health has significant changes. In the 1930-1940s, it deteriorated and incidence of certain occupied 700,000 ha and was fully flooded diseases has increased. This is due to the by the Volga in spring and summer. Now decline in living standards resulting from the the total area of spawning grounds in the economic crisis, as well as essential services Volga Delta constitutes 525,000 ha, out of such as drinking water supply. which 465,000 ha are located directly in the delta and 60,000 ha in the lower part of the The reasons for the degradation of coastal Volga-Akhtuba floodplain. landscapes include economic activities, sea level fluctuations (including surges), climatic At a flow volume of 130-110 km3 in the events, flooding and desertification. Loss of second quarter of a year, the highest water bio- and genetic diversity is mainly due to level in the delta reaches 565-561 cm, which non-rational use of agricultural lands and allows flooding of the entire spawning the introduction of alien species. grounds and hay fields. In years of high water, all the lands in the delta and The river provides significant commercial floodplain are flooded compared to fishing. The Lower Volga and the Northern 60 percent in years of low flow. Caspian are among the largest fishing areas of the country, where some 50 percent of The spawning area in the delta depends on inland water fish catches are harvested, two main factors: the magnitude and including about 70 percent of sturgeons. duration of the spring flooding period, and The area from Volgograd to the Northern the existence and management of suitable Caspian provides the spawning grounds of spawning grounds. Effectiveness of fish sturgeons and semi-migratory fish species. reproduction also depends on the duration Along with natural reproduction of fish in of the fry feeding period in the spawning the Lower Volga, artificial reproduction of grounds, itself determined by the water level fish is widespread as well (hatcheries, fish of the Volga in spring. In years of high farms, etc.). These hatcheries produce over water, the duration is between fifty and 50 million fry of sturgeons and semi- seventy days. Over that period the fry migratory fish each year. However, only develop enough to migrate downstream. In about 1 percent of fry survives due to their years of low water, the duration of that high vulnerability. period decreases to thirteen to twenty days, and in years of extremely low water, only The region thus serves as a spawning area seven to nine days. This leads to mass and provides a food base for the majority of mortality of fry in remaining water bodies. migratory and semi-migratory fish of the Caspian Sea and the Volga River, including One indicator of fish stock reproduction is globally threatened and highly valuable the productivity of spawning grounds. sturgeon species. Construction of the Table 5-61 gives the variations from 1931 to reservoir cascade on the Volga has led to 1990 for some fish species together with the the loss of spawning grounds, and its stocks volume of the spring flood. The table shows are supported now only through artificial that the lowest productivity is typical for breeding. Spawning grounds of sturgeons years of minimal water flow (1971-1980). are conserved within the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain and in the delta. The presence of In the eastern part of the delta, work to natural spawning grounds is a necessary improve fisheries has been carried out over condition for conservation of the gene pool 215,000 ha, providing for earlier flooding of of these fish species. spawning grounds, free passage of spawners and successful migration of fry in the river. Effectiveness of fish reproduction is According to estimations, fish productivity determined by the size of flooded area and in the improved areas is about 170 kg/ha, the flood regime. The area of spawning compared to a yield of only 74 kg/ha in the grounds in the twentieth century underwent unimproved grounds yield. 92 V Chapter 5. Description of the present situation

Table 5-61 - Fish spawning ground productivity in the Volga-Caspian area, hundred kg/ha

Volga flow for the II quarter, Years km3 Vobla Bream Zander Wild carp Total

1931-1940 - 1.18 1.40 0.90 0.50 3.98 1941-1950 - 0.80 1.00 0.70 0.40 2.90 1951-1958 136.5 1.30 0.50 0.40 0.20 2.40 1961-1970 106.1 0.35 0.35 0.07 0.05 0.82 1971-1980 90.3 0.15 0.14 0.04 0.08 0.41 1981-1985 96.4 0.17 0.22 0.04 0.12 0.55 1986-1990 114.6 0.37 0.33 0.04 0.07 0.81

According to official statistics, sturgeon shipping waste discharges; agricultural catches declined from 11,000 tons (1910- runoff and drainage waters; and pollution 1930) to 1,800 tons (1996-1998), and total risk from exploration and extraction of commercial catches declined by almost five hydrocarbons. Although current levels of times due to overfishing and poaching, loss aquatic pollution are not yet a major threat, of spawning grounds, and disturbance of the prognosis suggests that an increase in the fishes' food base. Moreover, the Caspian economic activities in coming years may states have no regional agreement on well result in increased levels of water sustainable catch limits, nor do they have a pollution. Moreover, there is a lack of general pricing policy for the export of fish reliable scientific knowledge on the and caviar. interrelation between pollutants and biodiversity and even on actual pollution Natural fluctuations in Caspian Sea water levels. There is a lack of regulatory rules and level impact the coastal zone significantly. methods for biodiversity assessment in the Throughout history, habitats and species EIA procedure, and so far there are no have had continually to adapt to naturally approved ecological requirements for changing hydrological conditions. During hydrocarbon exploration and extraction in the last century, however, the natural the Northern Caspian and Volga-Akhtuba dynamic cycles have been modified by floodplain. human interventions such as dam construction and reservoir development, Poaching has become yet another scourge industrial water usage, the construction of for fish resources. According to data from dikes, drainage of wetlands, and other fish protection agencies, sports fishing in changes. It is widely shared view that the volume has become equal to industrial effects of climate change can be added to operations. The following factors have been these drivers. The recent increase of the identified as likely reasons for poaching and water level in the Caspian Sea (up to 2.5 m) overuse of natural resources: lack of other resulted in changes in the feeding and forms of employment, commercial gain, breeding conditions for many mammals and meeting local food needs, and recreation. water birds, and a loss of shallow aquatic Subsistence hunting and fishing is clearly areas. Habitat loss was compensated to increasing as overall economic condition is some extent through a shift inland. worsening, especially in rural areas. However, no effort was made to restore the Poaching for sturgeon and other wetlands on former agricultural lands. commercial fish species has increased over the last years as a result of high profitability Sources of aquatic pollution are located of this "business" and insufficient controls. both within the Lower Volga region and Every year it becomes more and more upstream. The main sources of aquatic difficult to control poaching due to lack of pollution are municipal, industrial and equipment. Sometimes even violations by Volga Vision V 93

employees of management and control making system based on information about agencies are noted. the area being managed. Reasons for this problem include: Most problems and conflicts arising from the use of coastal resources are related to • lack of a regulatory base describing the the fact that the coastal zone is not permissible status of managed areas; regarded as a distinct and integrated subject of management. One shortcoming • lack of data that can describe the current of the current federal legislation in the state of ecosystems in a meaningful way Russian Federation is its separate consideration of issues related to legal • lack of standards for permissible pollution regulation of various kinds of natural loads; and resources, i.e. oil, gas, fish, tourism, agriculture. The result is that the state • lack of an adequate decision-making control, registration, protection and use of system. individual kinds of resources are not integrated. Improving the management of the Caspian coastal zone requires application of up-to- Current legislation does not fully define the date information technologies and remote responsibilities and competence of the sensing control data. Increase of Russian Federation regional authorities and management effectiveness requires the local governments concerning the development of a regulatory and legal base, management of coastal zones and their elaboration of appropriate economic resources. Hence, the use of various kinds of mechanisms, development of information natural resources within a part of the support systems for managerial decision- coastal zone may be under the competence making, and careful consideration of of authorities at different levels. In addition, organizational issues. sometimes the regional legislation concerning the use, guarding and protection At present there is a lack of cooperation of coasts contradicts the federal legislation. between the Caspian riparian states, Although at present (since 1996) the legal between regions of the Russian Federation basis for management of coastal and between stakeholders. In order to environment is being elaborated, the improve management of the Caspian Federal Coast Code has still not been adopted. ecosystem it is necessary to coordinate efforts of all Caspian states within the The basic management task for the Caspian framework of international programmes coastal zone is the adjustment of the and interstate agreements. coastal socio-economic complexes to environmental changes (including significant However, one very hopeful sign is the recent fluctuations of the sea level), and Framework Convention for the Protection maintaining the uniqueness of the of the Marine Environment of the Caspian biodiversity and commercial importance of Sea signed by all the riverine states, bioresources. This requires that adequate Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, the Russian management of the coastal zone Federation and Turkmenistan, on 4 environment should be understood to November 2003 in Tehran. The Convention require the regulation of anthropogenic applies to the marine environment and is impacts on ecosystems based on monitoring intended to protect the Caspian from all data and development forecasts. sources of pollution. It covers the protection, preservation, restoration and The main problem of ecosystem sustainable and rational use of the management is the lack of any decision- biological resources of the Caspian Sea. Volga Vision V 95

Chapter 6. Drivers and constraints 96 V Chapter 6. Drivers and constraints

words economic growth is essential in order to sustainably improve the condition of both people and environment. Predictions for annual economic growth rate range between 2 and 6 percent for the next thirty years. While this indicates an expected positive trend, the uncertainty of the prediction over such a long period is significant and could possibly remain so despite further economic study and analysis. 6.1.Introduction People's behaviour and attitudes are of primary importance. One aspect of this is how they organize themselves in a society - the overview of political and social The previous chapter described the processes will illustrate this point. A prevailing human and environmental particularly relevant aspect here is the situation in the basin. These conditions environmental management systems, the offer a snapshot of a process influenced by related scientific research and information human activities and decisions, but also systems and the attitudes of the population subject to external influences. towards science and towards the environment. This chapter attempts to summarize those external factors that may help or hinder the Improvement of the situation is partly conditions in the Volga basin. Some of these dependent on technology, and if a problem factors - such as climate change and the can be solved by technological means, that state and organization of the world's solution is among the easiest to implement. economy - are difficult to influence, some Technology is of prime importance in waste stimulate change and may favour positive prevention and treatment. Technology can development while still others could be seen be both a powerful driver and a potent tool as serious obstacles. in the improvement of environmental conditions. The Russian Federation is part of the global process. It can influence the course of events, but can not determine them and it will need to adapt. This assumption implies that the global situation will influence the pace of economic growth in the economy in 6.2.Climate change the Volga basin. In this Vision document it is assumed that there will be no great and variability disasters or abrupt changes in the coming decades. Gradual changes, even negative ones, could be compensated by adaptation and appropriate countermeasures. Climate is defined as the conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a Other factors, the most important of which long period of time; it is the long-term are basic human needs, are internal to the summation of the atmospheric elements country and can be influenced, at least to a (and their variations) that, over short time certain extent. While it is possible to cover periods, constitute the weather. These the basic needs of the population with a elements are solar radiation, temperature, weak economy, it is extremely difficult to humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, bring about necessary changes when and amount), atmospheric pressure, and economic growth is stagnant. In other wind (speed and direction). Volga Vision V 97

Climate has always been variable. range from -70 mm to +180 mm, with the Bioclimatic data and other historical idea that most likely there will be an evidence proves for example that between increase in precipitation. the year 900 and 1100 northern Europe was warmer, and between 1600 and 1700 colder, Russian scientists have made special studies than at present. on possible climate change and its consequences for the Volga basin. They Coal burning for energy production started expect the global warming to continue and large-scale industrialization of the its effect on all natural and anthropogenic nineteenth century, Since then the carbon processes to increase. During the last dioxide (one of the major greenhouse gases) twenty years, a climate change has been content, of the atmosphere has doubled, observed throughout the whole Volga basin. contributing to an increase in global A trend towards rising land air temperature temperatures. was clearly noted. The observed warming within the basin was accompanied by higher Global circulation models (mathematical annual precipitation and a northward models that simulate the earth climate on movement of southern terrestrial and the basis of physical laws) try to predict aquatic species. future climate characteristics, and in particular temperature and precipitation The climate change predicted for the that can be expected over the next fifty to coming decades would primarily affect one hundred years. These models are water resources (upon which the becoming better, but one can still not be population's water supply is largely sure how close the results are to reality. It is dependent), irrigation, different industries, however certain that climate is variable and navigation, extreme events and ecology in that the meteorology of the next century the Volga basin. Some of the consequences will not necessarily be the same as the last. of climate change in the basin include: The socio-economic consequence is that robust development options that take this • The volume of water resources is likely to variability into account are needed for the increase: in many areas of the basin, future, rather than so-called optimal depending on physiography, annual options based on information of the past. runoff could increase by 15 to 20 percent. The higher water availability of rivers Russian scientists have played an important would necessarily lead to a redistribution part in studying climate change within the in streamflow. WMO Climate Change Programme. The IPCC, the International Panel for Climate • River discharge increases during the low Change, predicts an average global flow period. warming in the twenty-first century of 2 to 5 degrees centigrade. In addition, the increase in air temperature would cause additional evaporation from Climate change research is very much an the reservoirs and from irrigated fields. international activity and for Europe as a These water vapour fluxes could then whole, information provided by the Hadley stimulate additional precipitation. Centre for Climate Prediction and Research According to some assessments, a global in the United Kingdom is frequently used warming of 2°C, would cause a mean annual for predictions of the consequences of increase in precipitation of 75-150 mm/year climate change on water resources. The in the upper and middle reaches and 200- Hadley global models suggest that in the 250 mm/year in the lower Volga reaches. Volga basin temperatures will rise between All these changes could result in 2 and 5 degrees in summer and winter. The evapotranspiration in the basin increasing predictions of change in annual by 70 mm/year and in higher runoff by 30- precipitation for the years 1970 to 2100 40 mm/year. 98 V Chapter 6. Drivers and constraints

These changes in climatic and hydrological characteristics would lead to a higher water 6.3.Globalization availability in the basin. A whole new scheme for controlling water flow using the reservoirs would be required. This would require conceptual changes in the system of The present day world is characterized by flow control by the reservoirs for these two paradoxical trends. On the one hand, expected, but quite different, conditions of globalization is in progress as nations the hydrological regime. respond to an expanding range of international linkages, economic interdependence, and to It is likely that the increase in air temperature policy issues that can no longer be managed and higher concentrations of greenhouse within the framework of individual nation gases would shift the boundaries of states. On the other hand, there are physiographic zones, reducing the area of growing international activities at the coniferous forest distribution but expanding subnational level. Subnational units (states, the deciduous forest area. Larger and larger provinces, autonomous republics etc.) areas would be occupied by broad-leaved prefer to respond to global challenges forests, forest-steppes and steppes. Thus, as themselves. Thus, international and a result of the climate change, forested national politics are increasingly shaped by areas would be spread northward; and the regional, as well as subnational and local additional mixed and broad-leaved forests dynamics. To denote this contradictory would introduce changes to tree species and phenomenon scholars invented the terms biodiversity in flora and fauna. "fragmentation" and "globalization" thus implying a complex nature of interaction of It is expected that severe winters will affect the two contrary processes. 40 to 50 percent less of the basin, while mild winters would extend over an area several The worldwide process of globalization times larger. This would create favourable strengthens a sub-state/local global conditions for increasing agricultural governance. This process is also observable productivity. It should be also noted that in the Volga basin. Such a shift in better conditions are expected for winter governance results from the growth of crops in wintertime along with longer direct transboundary links between sub- vegetation periods. state authorities, who have consequently undertaken a substantial number of policy However, despite these positive consequences initiatives that bypass central governments. of climate change, it is necessary to note Numerous transnational links have been there could be negative effects also. There established by local authorities in areas such may be more and more severe floods in the as trade, transportation, communications, wet areas, and more frequent droughts and culture, environmental protection, fighting higher aridity in the dry areas. In addition, organized crime and drug trafficking. natural soil fertility may end up lower in the future as a result of the more intensive Along with official (state) actors plant growth resulting from higher transnational companies (TNCs) have concentrations of carbon dioxide. It is become important players in a globalizing unlikely that the additional delivery of world. Globalization has altered the very organic matter to the soil would nature of TNCs. Originally, there was a compensate for the accelerated rate of clear demarcation between production, humus decomposition caused by global which occurred at the headquarters, and warming. The net result could mean a loss secondary activities, which occurred in the of nutrients and fertility. subsidiary branches. Now, companies can be truly global, as the headquarters are merely a site for strategic decision-making, while production (or its different stages) Volga Vision V 99

can be located in different countries. information producers favour transparency Companies can also establish a uniform and democratic rules. Some of them try to brand image in all countries. Management monopolize the information flow and personnel may develop their careers across the impose their views on the broad public. whole corporation. The top management can include people from several countries, Private and information sectors are not the with all managers communicating in a only actors outside the public sector that single language, usually English. contribute to globalization. Much of the initiatives comes from the so-called 'third The growth in the number of TNCs, the sector', the term that denotes non- scale of their activities and the complexity governmental, non-official, non-profit of their transactions have had profound organizations. These movements are global consequences for subnational units, inasmuch as they address transnational national sovereignty and the international issues, pursue their causes by exploiting the system. It is no longer possible to view each results of globalization (international law country or region as having its own separate and standards, Internet and other electronic economy. In fact, the control of communications, air travel, etc.) and, in governments over the currency and foreign some cases, emphasize their global identity trade, two important attributes of (cosmopolitan values, world citizenship, sovereignty, has diminished. The financial exterritoriality, and so on). meltdown of 1998 in the Russian Federation has demonstrated the country's dependence Despite the lack of finance and on global financial processes. The ups and coordination, NGOs (non-governmental downs in Russian domestic prices on organizations) have contributed to global gasoline also can be explained by governance in numerous ways. They have fluctuations on the global oil market. been particularly useful in such areas as Foreign trade can no longer be seen only as human rights protection, ecology, trade between countries, it may also be demography, conflict resolution, cultural intra-firm trade. According to the UN data, exchange, global networking and so on. intra-firm trade accounts for around one NGOs have been instrumental in providing third of all world trade in goods. global agencies such as UNESCO, UNICEF, the UN Office of High Commissioner for In the age of information societies, Refugees, and World Bank with advice and globalization is facilitated by a plethora of feedback. information producers - mass media, information agencies, public relations and consulting firms, Internet users, etc. Most of them are integrated into the global communication networks. Internet is the most obvious manifestation of globalization 6.4.Political and in the field of information. social processes The dissemination of information facilitates the formation of interest groups and NGOs. It makes them stronger in terms of their political influence in a region, increases the Along with its exposure to globalization the educational level of regional actors, most remarkable process in the post- integrates them into regional, national and communist Russian Federation (including international information and political the Volga basin) was its regionalization and space, challenges traditional political the process of decentralization that institutions, speeds up democratic reforms accompanied it. Regionalization has a and opens up Russian regions for number of consequences - both positive and international cooperation. However, not all negative - for socio-economic and political 100 V Chapter 6. Drivers and constraints

systems. The decentralization process may pressure of interest groups on the federal lead to the disintegration of the single bodies can easily be predicted. economic and financial space and disrupt the traditional system of division of labour Together with new broader opportunities between and within regions as has been put for building institutional capacity and in place in Soviet times. applying new policy tools, the transition to new economic and political systems in the The 1998 economic and financial crisis country in general, and in the regions of the intensified the process of fragmentation in Volga basin, in particular, has imposed the Russian economic and financial space. additional constraints on sustainable Many Russian regions established quotas on development of these regions. The number export/import of some products and of opportunities increased, but so did the erected customs check-points on their number of challenges. The urgent needs for internal borders. economic reforms and measures, the necessary social actions in many cases Regionalization of the economic space and resulted in distinctly lower priorities for autarkic tendencies made the Federation environmental policy implementation. New less cohesive. Another implication of the environmental mechanisms lost their Russian Federation's regionalization is effectiveness in part because of the reflected in the party system. Political weakness of the government at all levels, parties have many important functions: the shadow economy with its inherent articulation, aggregation and representation corruption, the strong impacts of the of different social interests, conceptualizing lobbying interest groups, and low public political ideologies, recruitment of elites and control over non-transparent administrative political leaders, organizing and serving the decision-making. There is no doubt that the election system, execution of political success or failure of institutional reform of control over the bureaucracy, provisions of environmental monitoring and administration, a feedback within the political system, etc. increasingly depends not only on the In a stable federal state, parties overlook the adopted environmental policy and equally important integrative function by institutions as such, but to a greater extent serving as instruments of political on results of administrative reforms, on representation for regions and control over effectiveness of economic institutions, on local officials by central officials. In other possibilities to overcoming financial crisis words, parties are important ties that bind and other external factors. The economic federal states together. and political transition has brought additional constraints into environmental However, the Russian Federation lacks a policy implementation. It appears that strong party system at the regional level. when sustainable development schemes are Under these circumstances, interest groups officially advertised, economic goals in the try to replace parties although they are actions of the regional governments and incapable of taking over all party functions administrations take precedence over the within the political system. Some political environmental priorities . organizations that call themselves parties seem in fact vehicles for group interests At the same time, the public has become rather than real parties. much more concerned about social issues and problems of immediate survival, With regionalization of the country the prevention of crime, about salaries and social base for national parties can be pensions, provision of access to public further fragmented. Hence, a strong goods, rather than about environmental national party system, which could be a issues. The growing poverty and decline in pillar for an efficient federation will be more living standards in the Volga basin resulted and more difficult to be created. Instead, in the increase of poaching and breaches of the rise of regional parties and increasing fishing and hunting regulations, in Volga Vision V 101

lumbering violations, destruction of rare importance in the environmental sphere. wildlife species. Unlicensed fishing on a Under a weak public control, economic mass scale is common in the Volga Delta, interests usually appear to be stronger than and in many other places. Responsible environmental ones, as clearly manifested regional authorities appeared to be too weak in some Volga regions. Violations of to enforce existing regulations and standards, environmental regulations are becoming proving again that weak authorities are more numerous. always poor protectors of nature. With all the problems relating to the All these new realities after the decade of enforcement of environmental regulations transition have implications for the efforts described above, the danger exists that as to solve ecological problems. While the some polluting industrial processes become pollution sources in many places ceased to unacceptable in Western Europe they will exist (due to closure of industries, reduction find increasing use in the Russian of agricultural production and use of Federation because of export opportunities pesticides), there is still a widely held to Western Europe. perception that the environmental situation has deteriorated.

Another important set of drivers and constraints for environmental protection as a part of sustainable development of the 6.5.Technological Volga basin is rooted in the decentralization of the environmental institutional change framework. Together with many positive features, serious problems emerged in the course of its implementation, for regional institutions are characterized by a number Technological improvement and innovations of weaknesses. At the start of reforms many in environment-friendly industries could hopes for improving ecological situation create job opportunities and can in many in the regions were associated with other ways contribute to both economic and decentralization and transfer of ecological improvements. However, as a management functions from the center to particular feature of innovations, their the regional (local) level so as to bring occurrence, nature and consequences decision-making process closer to the cannot be predicted. objects in need for protection. However, these hopes have not been justified in many Moreover, technological innovations in cases. On the contrary, decentralization has general in industry and transport, and sometimes aggravated environmental technological improvements related to the problems. The general cause was that handling of waste products in particular, will formation of democratic institutions at the also lead to substantial improvements in air, local level has proven to be more difficult soil and water quality. These methodologies than at the federal level. are always associated with costs and the industry will implement these on two Local elites retained power in many local conditions. One is a requirement of society, institutions, spreading their control over which can be by law or through public environmental protection, and especially pressure. The other is the possibility of over development of natural resources, and creating eonomic benefit. The industry over budgets allocated for these purposes. should be profitable in order to invest in Having eliminated control from above, local environmental measures. authorities have in some cases managed to avoid democratic control and accountability If the financial means are not available to before the public, which is of a particular invest in new methods to curb pollution, 102 V Chapter 6. Drivers and constraints

then it is also likely that no funds will be and has also affected the pattern of energy available to maintain and repair existing consumption. For the first time in the equipment and thus existing technology will country, during the period of 1996-97, an slowly deteriorate leading to even more increase in energy efficiency occurred, that pollution. is a reduction in energy consumption for an equivalent GDP. Profitability is not a requirement for public enterprises and institutions such as The economic situation requires, as a top municipalities, but the environmental priority, improvement of energy efficiency. measures should still be financed and this Simply at the stage of energy production requires again a healthy, taxable economy. from the raw energy source, the annual loss has already reached the equivalent of 30 It has to be pointed out that, in general, the million tons of fuel. In practically all relatively low technological level of industry industries at the moment, energy-intensive in the Russian Federation has led in many technologies and equipment are prevailing. cases to increased contamination of waters. Closed cycle water technologies, despite The above reasoning tends to show that the their availability, have not been widespread. major problem is the poor financial However, in the Upper and Middle Volga, situation of the private and public the volume ratio of recycled water over total enterprises. This is indeed a principal water use has been fairly satisfactory. The problem, but does not illustrate the situation is often paradoxical: production complete picture. In a situation were many levels have decreased due to the economic industries can not follow the rules, also the recession while the pollution level has been in enterprises that make good profits tend to some instances multiplied by three in five years. try to limit spending on maintenance, repair and innovations in technological measures Two main facts explain this situation. to prevent environmental damage. Factories pollute more per production unit. The equipment is obsolete and not repaired As a conclusion, one may say that the state on time. Besides, the raw material, cheaper of technological knowledge as such is not an than previously, often contains a higher level important constraint in efforts to improve of impurities including harmful substances. environmental conditions in the Volga basin. The systems for the industrial waste water treatment are also in a critical situation.

Another reason is in the emergence, in cities, of a multitude of small-sized shadow production units often responsible for 6.6.Scientific know- abundant release to the environment of harmful effluents (example: tanning ledge and use industry). They function quasi-legally and usually dump their effluents or waste either without any treatment into the municipal water drain or directly into water bodies. Even in a pluralistic society, a large river Municipal sewage systems are not equipped basin must be managed by laws, rules and to treat this type of pollution appropriately. regulations. In a free system, this management may be minimal, but measures are still to be One way to reduce waste is to produce more taken so that users do not harm each other. effectively. For example there is a great One of the most telling examples of this is potential for savings in the use of energy. water management and use. The production recession in the Russian Federation since 1990 has entailed a Basinwide integrated water resources significant reduction of energy consumption management has been endorsed by several Volga Vision V 103

international events as the accepted past. Such planning was popular in the paradigm for the state-of-the-art approach eastern European countries and also in the to manage this resource. For some southern European countries after the specialists this means that all activities in a Second World War up to twenty or thirty basin should be centrally coordinated. years ago. Others explain that integrated management is only a framework or system where every At present such detailed planning is no user or planner should take into account the longer thought necessary, but the interest of all other stakeholders. philosophical background has not changed completely. The search for single optimal Thus the accepted terminology covers solutions, the idea that the future is several concepts, and very often the determined by the past and that everything situation is a combination of the above will go wrong without a powerful central options, but it is useful to discuss the matter entity determining in detail the future as juxtaposed as possible since the different course of actions is still widespread. systems need different kinds of scientific knowledge and information. The scientific establishment in the centrally planned countries had a key role to play in One school of planning or management is the whole framework. If there is one optimal to set up a loose schedule with clear solution, the scientists have to find it for the instructions on the methods, goals, people government and because scientific logic is and budget involved. The advantage of this the truth, the general population has no system is its flexibility, the disadvantage ground to question the decisions of the that the discussion has to be continued on government. The plan was consequently the how things are to be accomplished. It also law. requires a consensus on the usefulness of the activity as a whole. This means that the In such a centrally coordinated system, the objectives should be formulated in such a scientists play their roles within the system way that a future government with a different and the data they gather and the political inclination would support the idea. information they produce have the purpose of facilitating the work of the central Another concept of planning is to make a authority. Data and information then detailed plan of what should be done, at became tools and are strictly controlled to what time and with what budget and by avoid that information may be used against whom. A lot of discussion and work go in the system itself, usually with the argument the preparation of the plan. If it is well of the superior interests of the state. prepared then it is internally consistent. In Preferred ways to communicate information most cases these large-scale plans are relied on the use of composite indices and adopted as a law in parliament. The percentages. advantage of such a plan is that everybody knows what to do. The disadvantage is that As the information system as a whole is it is very difficult to change or to adapt. conceived to serve the interests of the Consequently several institutions have been central authority, it is organized in such a built on the basis of the plan and the related way that different entities in the system do law. These institutions tend to be against no have a full picture of the situation. any idea of change. Independent scientists from outside the system have no possibility to criticize There are also philosophical backgrounds management options because they do not for the need of detailed planning. One of have access to the data sources. these is the idea that there is only one truth, and one optimal solution to a problem. Unavoidably, such centrally managed Another is the idea that the present - and systems tend to be inflexible because they therefore the future - is determined by the are basically unstable and for that reason a 104 V Chapter 6. Drivers and constraints

very large effort is needed to keep them the different political systems. It is quickly alive. This has meant that information was becoming part of the regular socio- to be controlled as well. This concept economic life, where its usefulness must be worked as long as the boundary conditions proven. As a consequence it is expected that did not change too much; however, in a the number of scientists will decrease and rapidly changing world the efforts to keep a the unity of higher education and research centrally coordinated knowledge and will gradually be re-established. information system leads at least to Simultaneously, the privileged position of stagnation if not to collapse. academies and their research institutes will be weakened. The scope of research will The science establishment was very certainly shift to the applied arena, away resourceful in sustaining itself in the from the theoretical focus. It is also centrally coordinated and controlled expected that the social appreciation of system. Funding and protection for (basic) natural sciences, in particular with institutes and projects were secured by young students, will diminish in comparison using scientists' strongest "weapon": to business administration and science itself. Withholding primary data and management, law and social sciences and information, using complicated methods engineering. and language and giving theoretical or even ambiguous answers to real world problems These changes are neither bad by definition, were common tools. Unlike in open societies nor can they be avoided. However, political the science establishment was well guidance of the process is essential. Major separated from other segments of society. stresses of the transition of the scientific The traditional links between scientific establishment are to be minimized. research and university education were Monitoring of the process and eventually greatly crippled by assigning research and direct actions are needed to avoid that, doctoral qualifications to scientific instead of a transition, a "meltdown" of the institutes of the academies, while reducing scientific establishment would occur. Were the universities virtually to the teaching this to occur, the knowledge base in the function. Scientists were expected to give Volga basin would be severely damaged. advice but were separated from decision making and thus became non-responsible The bias of a "separated science" can be for the consequences of their advice. best illustrated by the fact that most of the Maximum Allowable Concentrations The above text clearly describes the past, (MAC) for potentially harmful substances without which it is not possible to in environmental media (water, air, soil) are understand the present functioning of the often higher in the Russian Federation than scientific system in the Russian Federation. the values set in international standards. Today, the situation is the same as regards the organizational structure, but at the Scientists are asked advice on the same time very different in the sense that establishment of norms for pollutants. the scientific establishment has lost its MACs are usually established based on the privileged status and most of its research negative health effects of a certain funds. However, it has not yet fully adapted pollutant. It is indeed very difficult, time- to the new situation. consuming and expensive to establish with scientific exactitude how much damage is In an open democratic society science will caused and at what concentration a certain automatically lose its privileged, though substance provokes negative effects on segregated, status. In a more commercial- certain groups of people. Many studies are minded world, it must compete for carried out throughout the world and in acknowledgement and funding as science some cases accidents have occurred. There will lose its attractiveness as one of the is therefore a considerable amount of arenas of ideological competition between information, but not enough to establish Volga Vision V 105

with certainty the consequences of the more about the environment and the people choice of a certain value for a MAC. than governments in other countries. Another reason may be that norms are Scientists asked to establish a MAC in a determined exclusively by scientists without certain country could just take the norms pressure from industry or local from an international organization like governments. In this case the scientists, WHO or from OECD, or from a country being the sole responsible actors, will play it which already has established norms. safe and propose stricter norms than the However, it may be considered that the internationally agreed ones. circumstances in that country are somewhat different and that specific One can say in general that if norms are so national studies are to be made that make it strict that industries and local authorities necessary to have specific national or can not comply with them, then the norms regional values for MACs. are counterproductive, because they do not lead to an improvement of the In some countries, higher MAC values are environmental situation. established under pressure from industry or agriculture to avoid bankruptcy or because In describing the health of the environment it is impossible under the prevailing and setting environmental norms, scientists situation of natural and/or economic therefore play a critical role. The conditions, to comply with international information they provide can be a powerful norms. A typical example is nitrates in driver towards a better environment and drinking water. better living conditions for the population. But if information is kept hidden, or is The opposite, that is setting lower and presented in a meaningless way, then it can therefore stricter MACs than international also become an important constraint to norms also occurs. One reason may be a understanding and action. political objective to show that a state cares Volga Vision V 107

Chapter 7. How the Volga Basin is expected to look: Formulating the goals to be reached in a generation’s time 108 V Chapter 7. How the Volga Basin is expected to look: Formulating the goals to be reached in a generation’s time

The present Vision is human-centered, environmentally oriented and focuses on indicators with their corresponding target values. These indicators describe aspects of the social and ecological well-being, irrespective of the political framework within which they are to be achieved. They represent factors which can be influenced by feasible economic, administrative or scientific activities. Their numerical values (in the sense of minimum targets) represent 7.1.Description of aspiration levels, set by scientists. These indicator values are considered to be a possible desi- feasible without being over-optimistic. rable future with This chapter summarizes the results of consultations among scientists on how a an evaluation desirable future in a generation's time could/should look like in the Volga basin. of its feasibility: Objectives and related targets are set for what may be identified as a descriptive model of the future of the basin. The Summary indicators reflect universal values and aspirations, irrespective of the various regional, ethnic or religious backgrounds. The desirable state of the Volga basin in a generation's time can certainly not be Numerical figures and statements do not described by scientific methods alone. The aim to represent infallible truth. It is neither time scale and the complexity of social, expected nor is it necessary that the reader natural and economic processes render any agrees with them; rather they are meant to form of forecasting or extrapolation virtually provoke thought, to mobilize decision- useless. Long-term horizons tend to defy makers, the public, and the scientific even human imagination. Unexpected community to substantiate or to revise political events, rare yet major disasters, these statements as well as to move to great scientific or technological discoveries achieve, or even surpass the targets set for can trigger unexpected changes and processes the different challenges. bringing either great improvements or substantial deteriorations on almost any issue. Scientists are particularly invited to consider the lack of knowledge and Regardless of the fact that these changes scientific information in the basin that this have affected many areas over the last Vision reveals. Interdisciplinary research decade or so, including the Volga basin, areas are to be identified, and projects they remain generally unpredictable. In the formulated to fill these knowledge gaps that 1970s, no one ever imagined the scope and prevent from defining more accurately the magnitude of the changes that have targets or mapping strategies on how to occurred since then. Once they occur achieve them. however, they pose new, unexpected management challenges. The question As this is a vision, the wording of this "how further?" becomes very relevant. A chapter is so-adapted and a formulation visioning exercise is therefore most choice was made: "we see, or we expect". appropriate after catalytic changes, at the Although the words "it is expected" look onset of what is expected to be a more more objective, they would give the stable development period. impression that there is an impersonal Volga Vision V 109

algorithm with which the expected result working conditions, nutrition, drinking could be formulated. This would be far from water, environmental quality, lifestyle and the truth. Furthermore, the "we" is an other factors. We do not expect that appeal to personal responsibility. poverty will disappear quickly from the basin, nor that health services will have One could ask who is "we"? That is left sufficient financial means to function open, "we" are certainly the authors and effectively for everybody within ten years. contributors, but one can also imagine that There will therefore be a delay before it is the idea that the "we" will be the matters start to improve again. How long scientists dealing with the Volga and finally this delay will be, nobody knows, but it is becomes the people of the Volga basin. unlikely that in 2030 indicator values will have reached those of Western Europe at present. 7.2.Discussing the For women we have taken the current values in the EU minus four years, coming various categories to a figure of seventy-seven, which is four years more than at present. From the data in chapter 5 we can see that an increase of four years over two decades represented a 7.2.1. Health substantial gain even in countries that had ample financial resources to spend on The indicators chosen in chapter 4 for health. describing the health situation in the Volga basin are: For men we have anticipated a considerable improvement in life expectancy, namely six • Life expectancy at birth for women, in years; additional years. The reason for this is that the situation is unacceptably bad and • Life expectancy at birth for men, in years; should be a major priority for the country. and Child (up to their fifth anniversary) • Child mortality (under five years of age) mortality is four times higher in the Russian per 1,000 live births. Federation than in Western Europe, and, according WHO, probably still under- In chapter 5 the situation around the year recorded. Reducing child mortality is easier 2000-2002 was described, and the following than increasing life expectancy and values were taken: improvement can be more or less rapid: an essential element is lowering the death rate Health indicators, present situation of children during the first year of life. We expect that child mortality can be brought Life expectancy at birth for women, in years ...... 73 down to a figure between 10 and 15 per Life expectancy at birth for men, in years ...... 61 thousand live births. Finally we have chosen the figure of 10 promille, which although Child mortality (under five years of age) possible will not be easy to attain. per 1,000 live births...... 22 Health indicators, the view for 2030 In chapter 5 information was also given about the indicator values for other Life expectancy at birth for women ...... 77 countries , showing that the situation is not good in the Volga basin. Life expectancy at birth for men...... 67 Child mortality (under 5 years of age) Life expectancy depends on access to and per 1,000 live births...... 10 quality of medical services, living and 110 V Chapter 7. How the Volga Basin is expected to look: Formulating the goals to be reached in a generation’s time

The life expectancy depends thus on because of the renewal of the automobile many factors, only some of which are park. We do not expect that all industrial air environmental. With increasing development pollution will have disappeared, but we that will allow for better medical services, envisage a drastic reduction. At present, it life expectancy will increase, but without has been estimated that WHO norms are at improved environmental conditions, the present regularly or systematically exceeded increase will only be slight. Good in thirty cities in the Volga basin. For the environmental conditions in the broadest future, the figure of 10 cities has been sense (including the quantity and quality of selected to show that there will be a clear food and drinking water, air quality as well improvement. as general working and living conditions) are a requisite for a long and healthy life. Current child mortality rates are excessive, at 22 per 1,000 live births. This high This section focuses on air quality and mortality is partly due to difficult economic drinking water quality. Illnesses due to soil conditions of the parents and less-than- pollution are statistically of little importance. ideal medical systems. An aggravating factor is the bad microbiological quality of Health related indicators, present situation drinking water in many parts of the basin. % of samples of food products that are below (microbiological) standards...... 7 The municipalities are responsible for drinking water quality in all circumstances, Number of cities in the Volga basin and the quality of the water in the river and where WHO standards for air quality are regularly (not by accident) exceeded...... 30? reservoirs can not be accepted as an excuse. As the quality of the raw water is, in the % of people in urban areas receiving safe vast majority of cases, more or less drinking water...... 50? acceptable, priority should be given to improving the microbiological quality of % of people in rural areas having safe drinking water...... 30? drinking water.

(the question mark means that the available The information concerning the safety of information is not very clear, either due to the absence of measurement or to unclear definitions) drinking water is very unreliable. Many sources report that no urban areas in the Volga Microbiologically, food is regularly basin can guarantee a microbiologically safe monitored. The present 7 percent of drinking water every day of the year. unsatisfactory samples can be reduced to Although the table gives a figure of 2 percent; to try to reduce it even further 50 percent of people without access to safe would not be advisable. water in urban areas, this is again a token figure. For rural areas the information The influence of poor air quality on life available is even less reliable. expectancy is not easily determined, although it is known that particularly However, in thirty years it is certainly vulnerable groups are likely to have possible to ensure that all cities in the basin problems. This is of special concern to small have access to safe water and that all children and the elderly. It is therefore inhabitants are properly connected. necessary to considerably reduce the Therefore a goal of 90 percent can number of urban areas where air quality is reasonably be reached. For the rural regularly harmful to health. population, it is much more difficult to guarantee a continuous safe water supply. It is reported that air quality is very bad in Although 60 percent of rural people many urban centres of the Volga basin. We receiving a secure bacteriologically safe expect that in the next thirty years, the water supply does not mean that 40 percent most noxious substances in automobile- of people continuously receive poor, related air pollution will largely disappear unhealthy water, but points to the challenge Volga Vision V 111

of guaranteeing that the water is always soils in the world with high natural fertility. safe. At present the nutrition situation in the basin is not up to standards, as the average We foresee the following indicator values caloric intake is estimated to be around for 2030: 2,700 to 2,900. This is not, by itself, an unacceptable figure, but because it is an Health related indicators, situation in 2030 average, the figure shows that there are % of samples of food products that are large groups of people who have to live on below (microbiological) standards ...... 2 much less.

Number of cities in the Volga basin where The quality of the diet is more an indicator WHO standards for air quality are regularly of the socio-economic situation than of the (not by accident) exceeded ...... 10 capacity of the basin to produce enough food, as shown by the relatively low animal % of people in urban areas receiving safe product consumption rate. In order to drinking water...... 90 improve the situation, both the total calorie % of people in rural areas having safe drinking and protein intakes have to be improved. water...... 60 Taking into account the agricultural potential of the Volga region, the fact that improvement of agricultural yields can take 7.2.2. Nutrition place with minimal environmental impact and with the expectation that the economy The indicators chosen in chapter 4 for will considerably improve in the next thirty describing the nutrition situation in the years, the nutrition situation in the Volga Volga basin are: basin should normalize in the near future. We have therefore taken the WHO • Average number of calories per person recommended figures as a goal for 2030. per day produced in the basin; There are areas where the soils are damaged • Animal product (proteins) consumption to such a degree that agriculture can no in grams per person per day; and longer be practiced - it is estimated that this concerns 0.12 percent of the agricultural • Agricultural areas with heavy soil area in the Volga basin, especially in the pollution in 1,000 ha. southern part where there are forest- steppes, steppes and semi-deserts and Chapter 5 described the 2000-2002 situation where soil degradation is a serious problem. and the following values were selected: We foresee that half of the area which is presently degraded will be made productive Nutrition indicators, present situation again. It would probably not be worth the effort to recover the other part. Average number of calories per person per day produced in the basin...... 2,900 Irrigated agriculture has traditionally been needed in the south of the basin, because of Animal product (proteins) consumption in grams per person per day...... 41 low precipitation. Over the last ten years, the volume of water taken from the river for Agricultural areas with heavy soil pollution irrigation has diminished. Even if the in 1,000 ha ...... 130 withdrawal for irrigation should, over thirty years, double compared to 2000, the The conclusion in chapter 5 is that the food reduction in river flow at the delta would be production potential in the Volga basin is less than 2 percent on an annual basis. very high, because although it does not have Irrigation is necessary in the region in order an ideal climate, it has probably the best to sustain agriculture, particularly the 112 V Chapter 7. How the Volga Basin is expected to look: Formulating the goals to be reached in a generation’s time

production of vegetables and fruits. It is not The uncertainty for the figure of the however needed for the production of number of fatalities per year originates from cereals in the Volga basin as a whole. the fact that in the Russian Federation, statistics of the numbers of deaths due to We expect to have attained the following accidents and due to environment-related goals for 2030: disasters are aggregated.

Nutrition indicators, situation in 2030 Forest and peat fires are major hazards that occur every year and destroy large forest Average number of calories per person per day produced in the Basin ...... 3,200 areas. With appropriate prevention Animal product (proteins) consumption measures the annual loss of timber per year in grams per person per day ...... 50 can be halved over the next thirty years.

Agricultural areas with heavy soil pollution Although the number of deaths due to in 1,000 ha ...... 70 natural disasters is relatively low, the number of people affected is certainly much higher, for example in the case of floods. 7.2.3. Human & Environmental However, reliable data are absent, which Security means that there is no system where individual people are reimbursed for the The indicators chosen in chapter 4 for damage caused for example by floods. We describing the human and environmental foresee the introduction of an insurance security situation in the Volga basin are: system, whether public or private. This would result in the need for reliable data • Number of deaths by natural disasters which might justify expenditures for per year, averaged over five years; and prevention and protection, leading in turn to a reduction of the number of affected persons. • Volume of timber lost in forest fires per year in 1,000 cubic metres. We foresee the following indicator values for the year 2030: The present situation was described in Environment-related security chapter 5 and the following values were taken: Number of deaths by natural disasters per year, averaged over five years ...... 30 Environment-related security indicators, present situation Volume of timber lost in forest fires per year in 1,000 cubic metres ...... 50 Number of deaths by natural disasters per year, averaged over five years ...... 70?

Volume of timber lost in forest fires per year in 1,000 cubic metres ...... 100 7.2.4. Housing and settlements

(the question mark means that the available The indicators chosen in chapter 4 for information is not very clear, either due to the absence of measurement or to unclear definitions) describing the housing and settlements situation in the Volga basin are: Chapter 5 concluded that the Volga basin is generally not prone to frequent and serious • Living space in square metres per person natural disasters. There are occasional in urban areas; floods, coastal flooding, and severe storms, and fatalities are mostly caused by extreme • Green open space in urban areas in cold periods. It is considered that by improving square metres per person; standards of living and better services for the urban homeless, the annual number of • % of urban households connected to deaths can be halved in thirty years. water supply and sewage systems; Volga Vision V 113

• % of rural households connected to water per person was around 18 square metres, supply; and but in many cases it was less. It is unlikely that all the old apartments will still be • % of urban households connected to functional in thirty years, and in many cities other systems, such as heating, etc. the municipal infrastructures such as water supply and sanitation networks are sub- The present situation was described in standard, due to insufficient maintenance chapter 5 and the following values were and repair. This means that a considerable taken: effort has to be made to renovate the urban structures, including maintenance and Housing and settlements indicators, present upgrading of pipes and treatment facilities. situation Living space in square metres per person The unavoidable renewal of the buildings in urban areas ...... 19 and infrastructures in cities will make it possible to improve the quality of the Green open space in urban areas in square housing and to increase the living space. metres per person ...... 100

% of urban households connected to water There are currently many parks and open supply and sewage systems ...... 85 spaces between apartment blocks in practically all cities. It is considered % of rural households connected to water supply ...... 22 important to maintain sufficient green space although it may be tempting to use % of urban households connected to other that space for purposes other than systems, such as heating, etc...... 68 recreation.

The conclusion in chapter 5 is that the There is no reason why the indicators Volga basin is well-equipped with the should not be the ideal ones for urban areas necessary facilities, at least in urban areas. in 2030, and therefore we foresee that they However, in many cases the municipal will be optimal. As regards rural areas, it infrastructure and facilities require can not be expected that all houses will be maintenance and repair. connected to water supply and other utility services by 2030: it is considered just It is a normal human wish to have a safe, possible for 60 percent of rural households healthy dwelling that protects from the to be connected to a municipal drinking elements, gives sufficient privacy and where water system. the necessary services such as water supply, electricity, heating, telephone and other We foresee the following indicator values amenities are available. for the year 2030:

At present the large majority of people live Housing and settlements indicators for the year in apartment houses in urban areas. It is 2030 expected that a number will want to move Living space in square metres per person in to individual houses in the suburbs and the urban areas ...... 25 countryside: this change will consume space formerly occupied by forest and agricultural Green open space in urban areas in square metres per person ...... 100 areas. Although at the basin scale, this % of urban households connected to water additional occupation of soil will be supply and sewage systems ...... 97 negligible, the impact on municipal services will not. % of rural households connected to water supply ...... 60

Most existing apartments were built in the % of urban households connected to usual 1960s and 1970s. The planned living surface systems, such as heating, etc...... 80 114 V Chapter 7. How the Volga Basin is expected to look: Formulating the goals to be reached in a generation’s time

7.2.5. Environment large part to diminishing water pollution. It should be possible to manage the water The present situation was described in quality in order to allow fish to multiply chapter 5 and the following values were taken: normally. We have set a goal of 95 percent of river stretches with water of sufficiently Environment indicators, present situation high quality. Number of endangered species as % of those appearing in the Red Book for the The health of the sturgeon population is of year 2000 ...... 100 great importance both as a symbol for how Specially protected areas in 1,000 km2 ...... 43 nature should be dealt with and for obvious economic reasons. It is not reasonable to % of river stretches of high enough quality for fish to reproduce normally ...... 80? expect the dams and reservoirs to disappear from the Volga, and therefore other Spawning area in Volga Delta in 1,000 ha . . . . .525 solutions will have to be applied to bring the Sturgeon population as % of the year 1990 . . . . 50? sturgeon population above its 1990 level. Among these is the increase of the spawning % of cities where waste and waste water are area in the Volga Delta. Experts from the properly managed ...... 30 delta research institutions believe that (the question marks means that the available 700,000 ha would be sufficient. information is not very clear, either due to the absence of measurement or to unclear definitions) At present, there are many pollution "black The conclusion in Chapter 5 was that, spots" in the basin, and probably not all of overall, the Volga basin is a beautiful area the industrial pollution problems - either with very varied flora and wildlife. It is important past or present - are properly documented. that this remain the case and that the We expect that they will be, and that present "black spots" are rehabilitated. gradually the waste dumps will be made This is possible in the space of thirty years. environmentally harmless.

It is difficult, and perhaps not realistic or At present, most of the basin's urban appropriate, to quantify environmental wastewater and other municipal and quality. However, numerical values facilitate industrial wastes are not properly managed. comparisons. The figures here do not give a In addition, much of the waste produced comprehensive perspective, but the selected within the urban areas are not treated indicators are certainly part of the whole centrally. It is foreseen that within thirty picture and if these improve, this would imply years all urban wastes will be dealt with by that great general progress will have been made. municipal services. The better management and in particular better treatment of If the surface of protected areas in the Volga municipal wastewaters will significantly basin increases by three, this will mark a improve the quality of the rivers and reservoirs. huge step in preserving the region's biodiversity. A threefold increase is In the future, industry is expected to considered both desirable and possible become an active partner in the determination because the area under cultivation will of realistic new environmental quality decrease due to increases in agricultural standards which will allow both profit- productivity. The increase in protected making and investment in clean technologies areas, and their proper management, will and pollution-preventing techniques. also lead to a better protection of endangered species. The objective is thus Agricultural pollution, other than that simply to avoid further loss of biodiversity in caused by agricultural industries, will the basin's terrestrial ecosystems. remain minimal in the basin. Fertilizer and pesticide use is expected to increase but Biodiversity in aquatic ecosystems is overall will also remain small-scale. We expected to increase over time, thanks in expect that in time, the conclusion will be Volga Vision V 115

reached that it is necessary to improve the 7.2.6. Social and economic economic situation of the rural population and that at a faster rate than for the urban objectives population. Economic improvement in rural areas is seen as a prerequisite for the The present situation was described in preservation and improvement of the chapter 5 and the following values were taken: environment. Social and economic objectives, present Navigation is an important economic % of people with an income lower than activity in the basin, and will remain so. subsistence level ...... 43 Pollution by fluvial navigation, with the % of people unemployed and in informal exception of oil transport, is normally very sector ...... 30 low compared to urban pollution. It is Part of income in % received by the poorest possible to construct oil tankers so that the quintile of population ...... 4.4 consequences of accidents are minimized. Public expenditure for education and science Oil leaks from pipelines are an important as % of GNP ...... 4.6 source of pollution. Such leaks are expected to cease, as the oil industry is earning Chapter 5 showed that the economy has to sufficient revenue to construct and grow in order to finance the measures to maintain a good transport network. improve environmental conditions, fight pollution and preserve the biological We foresee the following indicator values resources of the basin. Anthropogenic for the year 2030: pollution is inevitable, and only with sufficient resources can people address the problem. Environment indicators for the year 2030 Number of endangered species as a % of those This vision is environmentally-oriented and listed in the Red Book for the year 2000 ...... 100 therefore it does not address economic issues in detail. However, a tripling of real Specially protected areas in 1,000 km2 ...... 120 income per urban inhabitant and somewhat % of river stretches of high enough quality more, 3.5 times, for the rural population, is for fish to reproduce normally ...... 95 possible and desirable to create the financial Spawning area in Volga Delta in 1,000 ha . . . . .700 base to make the vision a reality. Sturgeon population as % of the year 1990 . . . .100 The additional, socially urgent consequences % of cities where waste and waste water are of this economic development would be that properly managed ...... 80 the desirable values of the identified human- centred indicators on unemployment and income distribution would be reached. It is to be noted that although the Vision envisages 20 percent of the population living on an income still under the official subsistence level, this is not an ethically motivated choice. Rather, it is the acknowledgement that irrespective of a justified prudent optimism concerning future trends, not all problems and distortions can be rectified in a generation's time.

The chosen values for the future are based on comparisons with other countries. Twenty percent of the population below the 116 V Chapter 7. How the Volga Basin is expected to look: Formulating the goals to be reached in a generation’s time

subsistence level is a high value, and even 7.2.7. Cultural Heritage this figure will require great effort. The percentage of people unemployed and It is clear that in future, the rich cultural working in the informal sector is seen as heritage should be preserved. For an being brought down to 10 percent. This environmentally oriented vision, this means figure indicates that work in the informal a first step of ensuring the physical sector, where no social benefits can be monuments are safe from the weather, air derived, will have become exceptional. pollution and flooding. To accomplish this, public expenditure must be increased An environment in a modern state can only considerably. At present it is not very clear be properly managed if the population in how much is actually being spent towards general understands the problems and this end, but the expectation is that it knowingly supports the necessary measures should be tripled in thirty year's time. and restrictions. There must be, at all levels and in all regions, good technical specialists, and scientists must have the means with which to convey the right information to the 7.3. Conclusion decision-makers.

The objectives related to education and Around the year 2030 it is expected that the science in the Volga basin aim to secure the Volga basin will have a healthy population status quo, because the country has one of with enough food of the right quality for the highest educational levels and scientific everybody, living in a safe, healthy and standards worldwide. In recent years the interesting cultural and natural negative economic trends have threatened environment, which will have a flourishing these levels. Therefore a net increase of economy providing the rural and urban budgetary allocations will be needed to population a much higher income than in compensate the "meager years". the year 2000. Modernization and reorientation to address the real problems are indeed needed both in The vision of the future in relation to the education and science. In the future, the past can be presented in table form as Russian Federation is expected to spend the follows: same proportion of funds per inhabitant on education and science and technology as Indicators 2000 2030 other developed countries. Health We foresee the following indicator values for the year 2030: Life expectancy at birth for women . . . . 72 . . . 77 Life expectancy at birth for men ...... 60 . . . 67 Social and economic objectives, situation in 2030 Child mortality (under 5 years of age) % of people with an income lower than per 1,000 live births ...... 22 . . . 10 subsistence level ...... 20 % of people in urban areas receiving safe drinking water ...... 50? . . 90 % of people unemployed and in informal sector ...... 10 % of people in rural areas having safe drinking water ...... 30? . . 60 Part of income in % received by the poorest quintile of population ...... 7 Nutrition Public expenditure for education and science as % of GNP ...... 7 Average number of calories per person per day produced in the basin ...... 2,900 .3,200 Animal product (proteins) consumption in grams per person per day ...... 41 . . . 50 Agricultural areas with heavy soil pollution in 1,000 ha ...... 130 . . 70 Volga Vision V 117

Indicators 2000 2030 All these goals can be realistically reached and several may be surpassed. A condition Security is, of course, that the right decisions are Number of deaths by natural disasters taken and the work to reach the goals is per year, averaged over 5 years ...... 70? . . 30 performed. Nothing can however be Volume of timber lost in forest fires accomplished without the necessary funds per year in 1,000 cubic metres ...... 100 . . 50 and only a good working economy can produce these funds. The next chapter, Housing and Settlements entitled "How to make the envisioned future possible?" will delve deeper into the Living space in square metres per person in urban areas ...... 19 . . . 25 matter of requirements. Green open space in urban areas In the year 2000, the heads of State and in square metres per person ...... 100 . .100 Government of the United Nations adopted % of urban households connected the UN Millennium Development Goals. A to water supply and sewage systems . . . 85 . . . 97 framework of eight goals, eighteen targets % of rural households connected and forty-eight indicators to measure to water supply ...... 22 . . . 60 progress was established. Each year, the % of urban households connected Secretary General of the UN reports on to other systems, such as heating . . . . . 68 . . . 80 progress. The latest of such report is document A/58/323 dated 2 September Environment 2003. Number of endangered species as % of those for the year 2000, according Several of the targets and indicators are of to the Red Book ...... 100 . .100 direct relevance to the Vision. Target 5 is to reduce by two thirds, between 1990 and Specially protected areas in 1,000 km² ...... 43 . . .120 2015, the under-five mortality rate. This is equivalent to a child mortality rate of 9, % of river stretches of high enough while in the Vision the goal is 10 for 2030. quality for fish to reproduce normally . . 80? . . 95 Such discrepancies are unavoidable as the Spawning area in Volga Delta Millennium Goals are meant to be valid for in 1,000 ha ...... 525 . .700 the whole world, they are sometimes not Sturgeon population as % relevant for some countries and in this case of the year 1990 ...... 100 . .100 it is very unlikely that developed countries % of cities where waste and waste can bring down child mortality by two water are properly managed ...... 30 . . . 80 thirds because it is already low compared to the world average. The Russian Federation Social and economic objectives has already met or can easily meet all the other Vision-related Millennium targets. % of people with an income lower than subsistence level ...... 43 . . . 20 % of people unemployed and in informal sector ...... 30 . . . 10 Part of income in % received by the poorest quintile of population ...... 4.4 . . 7 Public expenditure for education and science as % of GNP ...... 4.6 . . 7

Other Public expenditure for cultural heritage as ratio of that of year 2000 ...... 1 . . . 3

(The figures with a question mark indicate uncertainty about the figure or/and the way how to calculate them). Volga Vision V 119

Chapter 8. How to make the envisioned future possible 120 V Chapter 8. How to make the envisioned future possible

and benefits are discussed at all levels. Only through a decision process where all interested parties and people can be represented and heard can one arrive at a general acceptance of the necessary measures.

The scope and form of recommendations summarized in this chapter will be 8.1.Background and illustrated by the example of drinking water supply. The goal is to supply sufficient introduction water of good quality to everyone at or close to their homes. This requires adequate water supply systems and networks which in turn require: The 2030 objectives are clearly stated in chapter 7: to have healthy citizens in a safe • Willingness of society as a whole to do the and stimulating environment in the Volga necessary work and to accept the basin. This is admittedly a limited objective financial and eventual social costs; and does not cover all aspects of life, but it is essential for all one could desire in life. • Adoption of a proper social attitude, This is also an objective any government, including the development of responsibility; irrespective of its political background, would promote and attempt to guarantee. • Knowledge for planning, construction, maintenance and operation; Objectives such as distribution of wealth, peaceful human relations, economic and • Financial resources for construction, gender equity are not detailed here. This maintenance and operation; does not imply that these issues are not important; however, they are not primarily • Materials and equipment for construction environment-related. They are nevertheless and maintenance; important because they do influence the implementation of the measures necessary • Rules and procedures for the management to achieve the objectives mentioned above. of planning, construction, maintenance and operation; and It is not always clear how far or how deep a government should go to ensure a safe and • Protection of natural resources. stimulating environment and at what levels the envisaged measures should be taken and These requirements are not specific to discussed. The question of safety in the water supply alone, and can be applied to all sense of the absence of threat of bodily objectives and human needs identified harm is easily understood, because explicitly in this Vision. They go far beyond providing this aspect of security is certainly the water sector and thus are dependent on the responsibility of any government all other sectors of society, even those that anywhere. In the case of floods, all levels of are not under control of the water government are involved, down to the specialists. For example, if water specialists individual. In the case of decisions involving are hindered in the implementation of their large engineering protection measures, it is duties by deficiencies for example in the sometimes necessary to keep the final hygiene education of the children or in the decisions at the highest level because of the education of technicians, then they should many conflicting interests involved. Still, at least appeal to the appropriate even then it is important that the options, authorities to remedy the situation. Hence, advantages and disadvantages and costs measures proposed in the Vision should go Volga Vision V 121

beyond the narrow area of water services, if and groups for whom they work. They necessary. should be able to explain in clear language their rationale for action, what it will cost Within each technical field there are and to whom it will bring benefits. specialists who know what to propose and what to do in a specific situation. In the Everywhere in the world, old approaches to framework of the Vision they have not all problems have a significant impact on been consulted. However, they should be addressing emerging issues. The discrepancy involved in the planning and implementation between the old-fashioned and the new phases of the measures proposed here for approaches is accentuated when sweeping the future. social, political and economic change occurs within a short time. The Volga basin is This chapter identifies in general what currently undergoing such changes. As far society as a whole should do. In the case of as scientific analysis and professional drinking water supply for example, the approaches towards critical problems are choice of the most appropriate water concerned, efforts will have to be made treatment technology is a matter for the towards greater openness and realism. specialists in that particular field and it is up Theoretical but "optimal" solutions based to them to make that choice in the planning on scientific assumptions can easily yield phase. Consequently, the Vision document unsustainable results, while less theoretical will not cover these questions. The same but more practical solutions representing reasoning holds for the choice of varieties of expert judgment and social reality tend to salt-tolerant crops. These are questions produce more robust, long-lasting results. that have to be answered by agricultural Consultation, a culture of open debate, scientists and farmers and not by society as participatory approaches should become a whole, even though some decisions common practice in science and eventually require the setting of political engineering and environmental management. priorities. One reality that must be accepted is that In order to make the envisioned future a society will always produce waste and that reality, scientific knowledge, legislation and only a healthy economy where both engineering works are all necessary. These industries and agriculture are profitable will have to be carefully planned and executed generate sufficient funds to be able to with the participation of the concerned reduce pollution at the source and treat it population. Scientists and engineers from properly. It is therefore inefficient from the the basin are very capable of preparing the environmental perspective to establish relevant strategies, and planning and environmental standards that industry and implementing them. Technological advances agriculture can not meet considering the are also made continuously. As these are costs of rehabilitation and maintenance. steps succeeding the vision phase, this chapter proposes no detailed technical The following description of necessary steps solutions. and measures needed is organized according to the basic human needs identified in this As informed citizens, scientists and document. This section attempts to engineers have a high degree of associate the consequences of the proposed responsibility in shaping public opinion. measures, legislation, public awareness- This does not make them decision-makers raising etc. with the selected indicators. as they are neither the beneficiaries of the However, because the indicators alone do works, nor have they the direct political not reflect the whole range of possible responsibility. Scientists and engineers in improvements, this chapter may contain the Volga basin have to be more aware that proposals whose intended effect would not they must communicate with decision- be measured by the selected indicators. makers, and with the specific communities, 122 V Chapter 8. How to make the envisioned future possible

The Vision is not an implementation plan The causes of the low male life expectancy and consequently gives no schedules. The must be further examined, and based on targets are to be reached "in a generation's findings, a programme should be developed time". Thus, the Vision implies long for specific remedial action. The low life transitional periods. expectancy of men can be partly attributed to environment-related factors such as the conditions within industry and mining sectors and other difficult working environments. Housing conditions and nutrition of the poorest part of the 8.2.Discussion ac- population are additional factors. The battle against alcoholism is a long term cording to the effort and must be continued. categories of With increased economic development, the situation is likely to improve. However, defined human other factors also come into play. For example, it is difficult to obtain proper needs medical care if a person is without work and lacks sufficient money. The medical system has to be reorganized to address such cases.

In this sub-chapter, each selected basic At present, medical services may be under- human need is described, along with what funded and inefficiently organized because measures, steps and changes in attitude are the availability of knowledge and trained necessary to arrive at the desired future in a manpower does not seem to be the cause of generation's time. the problems. Considerable investments are needed in the public health sector. It is absolutely crucial that the medical expertise and services should be available throughout 8.2.1. Health the entire national territory, as well as throughout different sectors of the society. Very few aggregate measures are as powerful as those used in the health sector Many more other factors influence life to characterize the situation. Life expectancy, such as the occurrence of expectancy at birth not only symbolizes the HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. Of these two, human desire for a long life, but also is a tuberculosis has links to environmental good reflection of improved public health issues as the disease is particularly and general socio-economic conditions. associated with poverty and poor living conditions. The remedy is threefold: As Chapter 5 reveals, life expectancy in the improve socio-economic conditions in Russian Federation has gradually decreased general, and improve living conditions and during the last decades. It is particularly health care for the poor. noteworthy that there is a twelve-year difference between male and female life The extent that air pollution is an expectancy. Many reasons explain this large important factor for life expectancy at discrepancy including the economic national scale is unknown, but it is most difficulties in the transitional period, likely that it can negatively influence the unhealthy working conditions, and lifestyle. health of many people. Therefore, the Throughout the world the life expectancy of modernization of industries should be a women exceeds that of men, but the priority in order to reduce unacceptable air discrepancy is extremely large in the pollution. This may simultaneously improve Russian Federation. production technology and its efficiency. Volga Vision V 123

Child mortality is even more closely related substances should not be used as an excuse to the environment than life expectancy. for not providing safe potable water. While Mortality of children under the age of five the harmful substances should be brought could relatively easily decrease to less than to the minimum concentration possible 15 per 1,000 live births in the next thirty during the purification process, their years. With deliberate extensive actions and concentration in river waters is generally changes in society, child mortality could lower then in Western Europe. even fall under 10 per 1,000 live births. For many people, the reduction of child Hygiene education in schools, media and mortality is the paramount objective and an awareness campaigns through the activities environment-related indicator of improving of the public health administration and societal and environmental situation. NGOs should create the necessary social pressure which does not accept The quality of drinking water has been compromises on drinking water quality. It is identified as a key factor impacting child necessary to explain throughout all levels of mortality. The first priority is the proper society the relationship between health and treatment of raw water to produce clean water and the cost of producing, biologically safe drinking water for the delivering and treating the water to be supply systems. The reconstruction and consumed. Realistic information should be repair and maintenance of the water used to show the present health situation, distribution system is part of this priority and public information campaigns in action. If possible, rural areas should be schools should become a regular feature. In served, as far as water supply is concerned, the rural areas, it is probably best by extending the urban systems. If that is emphasize informing the population not feasible, villages should be supplied through materials distributed in schools to from bacteriologically safe, local the children and through local television groundwater. The second priority is the and radio. These materials should be collection and treatment of wastewater. region-specific.

Improving drinking water supply is thus the Specific knowledge of the actual situation is first priority among the environment- needed for planning. The knowledge about related factors that influence public health. the natural environment and water The present excuse for frequently providing resources exists, although it is not always as unsafe drinking water to the population - freely available to the services as needed. that is, the bad quality of river and reservoir Often this information is hidden in one of water and the state of distribution networks the numerous scientific institutes. The - is unacceptable. The municipal authorities secrecy surrounding information collected are responsible for the public water supply, by public institutions, relying on taxpayers as well as the distribution network, money, should disappear. In some cases whatever the quality of the raw water. data are unreliable and because data are not open to scrutiny this uncertainty cannot be There is still a widespread misconception eliminated. A general deterioration of the that providing bacteriologically safe observation networks and data processing drinking water would not lower the has also been reported. presently high level of child mortality because of other predominant factors like All basic materials for construction and the economic recession and the state of the operation of water supply and sanitation medical services. The scientific community systems are available in the Russian also highlights the presence of heavy metals Federation for a quick improvement of the and other potentially harmful chemical present situation. In principle, local substances in raw water as the major industries are capable of providing all the problem for drinking water. Although true, equipment needed for the construction of the presence of other undesirable water supply and sanitation systems. 124 V Chapter 8. How to make the envisioned future possible

Biological treatment of water is feasible. In any case, water supply systems should The country has the technological know- lead to better health of the population how, there is sufficient space and energy is whole. Irrespective of the management not expensive. Thus, a good technical basis model, water supply systems must be exists to solve the problem of providing financed, and the citizens will have to pay bacteriologically safe drinking water to the for it in one way or another. Money is a very public. Other potential constraints may powerful instrument to directly influence exist in the areas of management, funding, water use behaviour. Therefore it is always and enforcement. better to require users to pay for water in such a way that it leads to rational and The standards, design rules and procedures economic water use, even if sometimes it inherited from the Soviet times should be may be necessary to provide public subsidies revised to become more realistic. For the to ensure that the public health objectives moment internationally accepted OECD or are achieved. WHO standards should be used as appropriate. Regulations and guidelines Urban populations in general, and also should be made to help improve the specifically in the Russian Federation, are situation. relatively more affluent than the rural populations. Therefore, realistic water pricing It is important to adjust the regulations and should start to be developed in urban areas first. guidelines so they support what is possible, feasible, and reasonable. Maintaining high In many regions, the rural population will standards that can not be implemented to have difficulties in paying the full price of impress foreign and local public opinion is water. For the purpose of managing water simply counterproductive. This leads to demand, it is not necessary that the full distorted information which makes it price be paid, as long as the level of the price impossible to get a reliable view of the real has the desired effect. How the government, situation which in turn leads to faulty national or local, contributes to the cost of planning. This vicious circle must be broken. the water supply is a political, technical, and financial decision. The government's In the last years, much discussion has objective is to improve the public health surfaced about whether water is an situation as quickly as possible with the economic or a social good. Many arguments limited funds available. are put forward in favour of private drinking water supply systems. Throughout the world very good and efficient public as well as private systems exist in all sizes. Many 8.2.2. Nutrition factors come into play in the choice of one kind of system or the other. It is not easy to As indicated in the previous chapters, the predict in advance which system is best in a Vision objective for the nutritional status in particular situation. From a theoretical the Volga basin is to make available 3,200 point of view it would probably be best to calories per person per day. The available have a diversity of solutions so that water is not a limiting factor. Irrigation is experience can be gained. Possible needed most in the dryer and warmer competition between the two types of climatic zones in the south. Irrigation systems, public and private, keeps both demand and highest water availability systems healthy. Choices should be made on (along the Lower Volga) coincide. The a case-by-case basis, tailoring to the impact on the environment, even in the case appropriate local conditions. A need for of doubling the irrigation water use monitoring and effective oversight by compared to 1990, would remain minimal. competent public authorities and for the direct involvement of the municipal Neither land availability nor the quality of administrations will always be necessary. the soils are limiting factors at basin level. In Volga Vision V 125

the south, however, in the semi-arid part of The rural economy in the Volga basin the basin, large areas are degraded. The depends largely on agricultural production necessary knowledge exists to improve and food-processing which still employ a these lands. In order to improve agriculture, large part of the population. Significant it will be necessary to have a new farmer economic decline in the recent years due to profile: a responsible, capable, and well- structural reorganization of the agro-food educated manager of a small or large sector has resulted in strong social profitable agricultural enterprise. pressure in rural areas of the basin. Inefficient restructuring policies increased This will not be possible without a change in unemployment levels and deteriorated attitude of the urban population and the social infrastructure in rural areas. This led present leaders towards the rural areas and to intensive migration among the young towards farmers. This change can be rural population to the cities. It is essential accomplished through activities such as public to elaborate an integrated policy that will information campaigns, the establishment pay appropriate attention to economic and of science and technology "museums" in social aspects of rural areas' development. the capital and in other urban centres specifically geared to land, water and Stable macro-economic and effective agriculture. Education of farmers will be institutional frameworks are the most particularly important. The purpose of necessary conditions for successful these actions is to increase the social status development of the agro-food sector in the of the farmer. It is clear that this increase in Volga basin. The agricultural potential of social status includes a higher income, an the basin is more than sufficient for the idea that must also be accepted by the needs of its population. This potential could urban population. Thus increasing wealth of be realized by implementation of market the rural population is an indirect indicator mechanisms and elimination of structural of a better nutritional status for all people. barriers preventing the development of a competitive economic environment. "Rehabilitation" of the farmer includes also the rectification of the image of the farmer While significant progress has been as a major polluter through the reckless use achieved in economic transition, a clear of fertilizer and pesticides. In many cases, long-term concept of agricultural policy still modern agriculture with its high remains to be developed. The interim policy productivity and better remuneration for measures have addressed mainly the the farmer may require some use of fertilizer immediate problems. As a result, the and pesticides. Therefore the environmentally internal links between production and sustainable use of these substances should consumption areas are still inefficient. The be promoted through training, financial agricultural problems in the Volga basin are incentives and by regulatory means. The similar to those of the country as a whole financial incentives work only when the and their solution depends on the actors have a certain wealth at stake and development of a comprehensive agricultural are conscious of the impacts of their actions. policy, as well as on efficient use of the scientific, technological and economic Present agricultural producers, managers of potential of the regions in the basin. food processing enterprises, and employees probably lack marketing and business skills. This results in low efficiency and competitive ability of enterprises. In recent 8.2.3. Human and Environmental years many institutions have started to offer research, courses and training, but these Security activities lack co-ordination and are not able to reach the broader audience due to Previous chapters have explained that most financial problems. of the deaths from natural hazards are 126 V Chapter 8. How to make the envisioned future possible

caused by extreme cold periods. The Annual forest and peat fires cause much loss solution to this problem is to provide shelter of wood and result in significant negative to those in need. environmental consequences. These wildfires can not totally be avoided, but Protection against natural hazards like efforts can be made to limit their extent. floods is generally well organized and the effort of studying, monitoring, building and maintaining protection engineering works is to be continued. Because of the possible 8.2.4. Housing and settlements neglect of protection measures and decreasing maintenance of larger hydraulic There is no doubt that by the year 2030 it structures, it is necessary to review the state should be possible to achieve the goals of these structures urgently. related to housing and the communal services in the Volga basin. Drinking water It is necessary to review the methodologies supply is one of the most important aspects for decision-making in disaster prevention of the problem and is dealt with under the and mitigation to take into account the sub-chapter health. The other important potential consequences of climate change. environment-related aspect of human The whole field of decision-making for a settlements, municipal waste management future which is inherently uncertain is to be is dealt with under the sub-chapter developed as a contrast to the previous environment. In general it can be said that a system where precise forecasts were considerable effort has to be made to expected. renovate the urban infrastructures, including the maintenance and upgrading of Good data do not exist on how many people water supply and sewage pipes and are affected, nor to what extent, by natural treatment facilities. hazards. Protection against disasters through engineering works and other Guaranteeing a good urban environment measures requiring funds, the state must needs a continuous effort by both the calculate how much money will be saved authorities and the public, and the when the measures are implemented, just as authorities need to make an effort to it calculates the cost of implementing improve the attitude and willingness of measures. The damage caused by a natural people (the main consumers of services) to hazard is normally damage to both public support the necessary measures. and private property. The state may decide to do nothing related to private property, It is necessary to raise awareness of the need but this still must be taken into account in to spend efforts and funds for the calculations, as private property forms part maintenance and repair of public works and of the wealth of the Russian Federation as a communal infrastructures such as whole. It is necessary to develop a method apartment blocks. It is to be expected that to quantify damage through natural a large number of the apartment blocks hazards to private property and establish an constructed in the 1960s and 1970s will appropriate monitoring system. have to be renovated or replaced.

It may also be appropriate to study the possibility of a voluntary, or mandatory, insurance system against natural disasters, 8.2.5. Environment for private homes, as well as the land and crops of farmers. Even if such an insurance There is virtually no physical resource - or system is not adopted in the near future, a the lack of it - which would hinder study would provide good insight into the achievement and maintenance of a healthy types of damages and losses. environment in the Volga basin. Volga Vision V 127

Achieving the targeted values for the increase considerably in the future. In environmental indicators is merely principle, all industries are able to treat indicative because these will be influenced their wastewater or to manufacture by many other factors (i.e. economic products without contaminating the natural development) well beyond the bounds of waters. Economic penalties and incentives, direct environmental rehabilitation. in a corruption-free climate, practically However, there is an undeniable connection. always give the best results in convincing Nowhere can this inseparable link between industries to adopt source reduction, recycle environmental and economic objectives be waste, or eliminate them safely. better demonstrated than in the aspiration to increase the spawning ground for In order to improve environmental sturgeon. Highly symbolic itself, the conditions, the first step is to know and consolidation of the stock of the inherent understand the present state of the natural species is of utmost ecological importance environment and its needs. In addition, with a simultaneously high economic benefit. environmental information - especially ecological information - has to be The environment has many facets. Given comprehensive because ecosystem elements the size and geographical and climatic are interrelated. Well trained and broadly diversity of the Volga basin, a detailed educated specialists must closely monitor description and complicated comparisons of the state of the environment. non-commensurate ecological values would be required. Watercourses and underlying The best information on the natural aquifers generally provide a potent situation in the region is probably in the ecological link between the different field of hydrometeorology. Plans exist for regions, climatic zones and landforms. the improvements and management of the Therefore, the environmental/ecological hydrological and meteorological networks. status of the basin is generally well reflected Streamflow and other hydrological data are in the chemical, biological and physical of direct importance for reservoir state of the waters. management.

All surface water quality parameters should Environmental information is not only have acceptable values at any place in the needed to be able to control pollution and to basin providing safe drinking water without prepare environmental impact statements. recourse to expensive technologies. There The environment also changes naturally. As are many other factors that are involved in natural resource development is a very long- securing an ecologically rich and term process, it is necessary to closely stimulating aquatic and terrestrial follow the time series of environmental environment. Water quality parameters data. should also permit wildlife to be sustained or re-established. To be able to manage the environment, it is important to have good knowledge about The progress in environmental development the man-made factors that impact the depends largely on public attitude and environment, such as industrial processes. willingness to support the necessary As the financial burden for rehabilitation is measures for nature conservation, as well as a shared responsibility, it is necessary that on an improvement in the economic information be freely available to all parties situation. For environmental protection, concerned. Confidence is based on realistic public awareness and participation is as information. important as the scientific and technological development level of society. International practice shows that efficient financial, technological and scientific Industrial pollution is relatively low today management is an essential tool for the due to the decline of production, but may improvement of the environment. 128 V Chapter 8. How to make the envisioned future possible

Management strategies have to be human health or the environment, revising developed that foster a harmonious co- standards in line with internationally existence of humans and nature. The work established standards, and reviewing on environmental legislation and rules for legislation to eliminate inconsistencies nature protection must be continued. A and fill gaps; particular emphasis should be based on agreements with local populations for the • continue efforts already under way to protection of natural reserves and other introduce human health and ecologically- valuable areas; otherwise the regulations based risk assessment methodology as a will not be enforceable. Economic activities priority-setting instrument in the like large industries and mining companies environmental and public health sectors; should also be considered in the environmental management. Regulations, • strengthen and unify the environmental positive and/or negative economic incentives monitoring system, in order to establish and agreements work best in combination. an objective information base for policy development and implementation; develop In general, the polluter pays principle should a core set of environmental indicators and be applied. In the present economic promote their use at federal and regional situation, it seems recommendable to levels; and integrate the aspects of environmental protection and ecological development as • continue efforts to improve public access part of the development process in other to environmental information and parts of the economy, such as rural participation in decision-making; strengthen development and tourism. efforts to increase public environmental awareness. The implementation of the environmental reforms met serious problems due to socio- Air quality economic decline and budgetary shortages for the environmental protection. The • aligning air quality standards with importance of environment within the international ones and simplifying general policy decreased. Since the 1996 permitting and focusing on large pollution reorganization of federal environmental sources; institutions, their influence at the federal and regional levels has significantly been • promote sustainable transport strategies, reduced. This shift resulted in significant including the phasing-out of leaded reduction of efficiency of the economic tools petrol, the introduction of alternative for environmental protection. The polluter fuel, energy savings and carbon dioxide pays principle as the main instrument for emission reductions, the promotion of regulation of economic-environment public transport, and the use of physical balance has become less effective. planning instruments and clean air plans at the municipal level; and In order to improve environmental performance of the Volga basin, the following measures, • improve air quality monitoring (e.g. urban which were first recommended by the ozone), warning and reporting to the OECD in their review of the status of the public, and introduce concrete measures environment in 1999, are proposed: to reduce the severity of episodes of bad air quality. Environmental regulatory framework Water quality standards • streamline the environmental regulatory framework (standards, permitting, charges) • review standards concerning the quality by concentrating on a limited group of of water bodies, drinking water and substances, in particular those harmful to wastewater discharges, in light of Volga Vision V 129

international health and water bioresources Contaminated site management conservation-based standards relating to health and ecosystem protection; • develop a long-term contaminated sites management programme, including an • continue to give high priority to providing inventory, risk prioritisation, clarification drinking water of good quality and in of liability, and related regulatory and sufficient quantities, with special attention economic instruments; to rural areas; increase the use of groundwater resources for drinking water • consider improvements in and strengthening supply; strengthen the protection of water of industrial accident prevention, abstraction areas; preparedness and control; and

• improve the effectiveness of existing • collect and publish emission data on polluting wastewater treatment facilities; put new enterprises; encourage environmental ones into operation in areas experiencing performance reporting by companies. water scarcity and serious health effects; ensure that industrial enterprises progress in regard to pre-treatment of wastewater; and 8.2.6. Social and economic • improve data used in water management through, for instance, harmonization and objectives co-ordination of monitoring, improvement of data quality and analysis, and extension The goal of this environment-related vision of regular reporting. is not to make recommendations regarding how to promote and strengthen industrial Waste management and agricultural development. The economy must grow in order to be able to • further implement the waste management finance the measures to improve information system as a support tool for environmental conditions, to fight pollution decision-making; develop and implement and to preserve the biological resources of realistic strategies for incremental the basin. Strong economic development is progress in regional industrial waste also a prerequisite for improving the health management, based on secure landfill and system, for initiating measures to prepare storage facilities, recycling and resource for and mitigate consequences of natural recovery initiatives, and waste prevention disasters, for constructing appropriate through cleaner production; housing, and creating a healthy urban environment. • rehabilitate municipal waste collection and disposal facilities through ensuring The argument that industrial and economic adequate funding of service providers and development are necessary for environment upgrading and/or development of new protection is not, of course, an excuse for landfills; - build upon positive attitudes industry to pollute beyond the norms set up concerning waste reduction, recycling and by society. The point is that there should be resource recovery through expanded a mutual understanding between those provision of information to the public and stakeholders who produce goods or services NGO involvement; and and those who protect the environment. There is no need for absolute harmony, they • establish uniform land disposal facility should both forcefully defend their views, standards for municipal solid waste and but ultimately be prepared to settle for an various types of industrial waste (including agreement. hazardous waste, as appropriate), in order to provide a basic level of environmental No industrial activity should be life- protection in the near future. threatening, but in most industries this is 130 V Chapter 8. How to make the envisioned future possible

not the case at all. The standards at the moment are such that in the majority of 8.3.Science for the cases, the industry can not comply. Industries know this and therefore do not early twenty- respect the norms. The first and most important task is to adapt the standards for first century waste discharge in all forms of industry and mining to a level that is technically and The recommended measures proposed in financially possible. Standards have thus to the Vision and in particular in chapter 8 are be set in discussion with industry and do not general ideas and activities that have the necessarily have to be uniform everywhere, purpose of creating a broader intellectual although that should be the long term aim. framework for the future. The actual improvements in water supply, sanitation The prospects for economic growth in the and irrigation, for example, will have to be Volga basin are considered to be good in the prepared, planned and implemented by the long term. If there is an average annual engineers and scientists in the region. They growth in GNP between 3 and 4 percent, need instructions, a framework and the the GNP per inhabitant will be tripled in means from the governments and the thirty years and for that reason one can ask support of the population concerned. There industries and service to invest gradually in are however certain areas where the anti-pollution measures. accumulated experience and actual knowledge of administrators, engineers and Part of the economic growth should be scientists might be insufficient to tackle the devoted to improving the environment. problems successfully. Special attention must also be given to diminishing poverty as quickly as possible. The previous chapters, especially 5, 6, 7 and Another socio-economic need is to improve section 8.2 gave a general picture of the living conditions in the rural areas. basin, the present situation and the desired future. The Vision indicates drivers influencing Improving the environment requires the trends and possible steps towards achieving agreement of the general population for the the human-centered objectives. All these financial and other restrictions that this chapters have revealed, both implicitly and imposes. The population must understand explicitly, the lack of information available the cost and benefits of activities to be to tackle the problems encountered. implemented on a long term basis. There is an urgent need to eliminate these A dual effort of economic development and identified "blank spots" in the scientific environment improvement requires, at all knowledge map. Data, information and levels and in all regions, good professionals their scientific analysis is needed to prepare who understand the issues and the local the appropriate, well informed policy situations. The education and training of decisions. In the context of this Vision this these specialists should be strengthened. policy-relevant research is expected to be Furthermore the scientific community must multi- and interdisciplinary in the broadest adopt a more realistic attitude towards sense. Not only many natural and social industry and economic development and sciences should be included but also inter- must be given the means to obtain the disciplinary overlaps between science and appropriate data, which is necessary to technology, science and culture, sciences prepare the reports for decision-making at and public health, and science and all political levels. management should be explored. Volga Vision V 131

Following the spirit of the Vision, the does not mean that basic science is research agenda of the coming decades unnecessary but in the stress-laden should drastically move away from the transitional phase, science must contribute "science for knowledge" philosophy which to the resolution of the burning social, has had such a strong influence on science economic and ecological problems. In this in the Soviet Union. Instead, there should period basic (fundamental) sciences must be more research to identify and evaluate take a secondary position as far as research what kind of scientific approaches and funding is concerned. No longer can the knowledge would contribute best towards "luxury” of using science as a political improving human lives and livelihoods, instrument in ideological confrontation be including the environment within which afforded. Instead, research must capitalize humans live. Science should fill the on its potential to prepare for a better knowledge gaps in the foundation of social, economic and ecological future. sustainable development. This constraint Volga Vision V 133

Appendix- Maps, references and list of abbreviations 134 V Appendix. Maps, references and list of abbreviations

Map 5-1. Administrative borders of the Volga basin Vision Volga Vision V 135

Map 5-2. Primary zones of the Volga basin Vision 136 V Appendix. Maps, references and list of abbreviations

Map 5-3. Soil salinization at the Volga basin Volga Vision V 137

Map 5-4. Living space in the Volga basin 138 V Appendix. Maps, references and list of abbreviations

Map 5-5. Surface water quality in the Volga basin Volga Vision V 139

Map 5-6. The Volga Delta (Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team,NASA/GSFC, http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/viewrecord?25522) 140 V Appendix. Maps, references and list of abbreviations

Figure 5-9: Mercury in the sediments of the Klyazma River

1995 Uch Uchinskoe a l e reservoir n a P n V g e a Chernogolovka K l' B h Pushkino o o k r ir o s c y z V l. Pirogovo a a h L n a ip Ivanteevka r c n e h y

Pirogovskoe Fryazino h a a y

S n

reservoir t o Mytischi l B Pokrov Starye Petushki P ol.D u K Schelkovo Noginsk b Omutischi El ektrogorsk n Losino-Petrovskiy V a Moscow Shalov y r k 'ga Monino a Orekhovo- Sen Balashikha ka a Obukhovo Bo l.Dvory -Zuevo Gorodischi l.Us h m Kl o St.Kupavna Elektrostal yazma B Vereya Pavlovskiy Fryazevo Posad Drezna Likino-Dulevo zna 1999 Dre Uch Uchinskoe a l e reservoir n a P n V g e a Chernogolovka K l' B h Pushkino o o k r ir o s c y z V l. Pirogovo a a h L n a ip Ivanteevka r c n e h y

Pirogovskoe Fryazino h a a y

S n

reservoir t o Mytischi l B Pokrov Starye Petushki P ol.D u K Schelkovo Noginsk b Omutischi El ektrogorsk n Moscow Losino-Petrovskiy V a Volga Vision V 141

References

1. V. Naidenko. 2003. The Great Volga at the Frontier of Millennium. From Environmental Crisis to Sustainable Development. Vol.1 and Vol. 2, Nizhny Novgorod. 368 p./ ISBN 5-901915-04-6.

2. State report on sanitary and epidemiological situation in the Russian Federation in 1998

3. State report on sanitary and epidemiological situation in the Russian Federation in 2000

4. State report on sanitary and epidemiological situation in the Russian Federation in 2002

5. State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics. 2001. Regions of Russia, 2001: Statistical yearbook. Vol. 2, ISBN 5-89476-100-X (?.2)

6. World Health Organization (WHO). 1999 (November). Highlights on Health in the Russian Federation.

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List of abbreviations

BOD Biological Oxygen Demand

COD Chemical Oxygen Demand

DO Dissolved Oxygen, it is expressed as a concentration, mg/litre. Note: the term DOC is used for Dissolved Organic Carbon.

EC European Community, now the EU, the European Union

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

EMERCOM Russian Federal Ministry for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Natural Disasters Mitigation

FAO Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations

FAOSTAT Statistics database of FAO

FIG Financial-Industrial Group

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GNP Gross National Product

Gini Index A statistical coefficient indicating income inequality in a society, named after Mr. Corrado Gini, an Italian statistician and demographer

GOST State standard (State Committee of the Russian Federation for Standardization and Metrology)

GW Giga watt, a measure of power or capacity to deliver energy, Giga stands for billion or a 1000 million

Gwh Giga watt hours, a measure for work performed or energy/power delivered. Giga stands for multiplication by one billion, that is one thousand million

UN-HABITAT United Nations Human Settlements Programme

HDR (year) Annual Human Development Report from UNDP, with the year it was published

HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus

HPS Hydraulic Power Station

IDNDR International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction - now the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 144 V Appendix. Maps, references and list of abbreviations

IGCP International Geological Correlation Programme of UNESCO

IHP International Hydrological Programme of UNESCO

IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO

IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature

MAC Maximum Allowable Concentration

MOST Management of Social Transformations Programme of UNESCO

MSW Municipal Solid Wastes

Mtoe Million tons of oil equivalent, a unit to compare the energetic value of different kinds of energy sources. The unit is thus the energy value of one million tons of oil.

MW Mega watt. A watt is a unit of power, equal to one joule of work performed per second. Mega stands for million, thus multiplied by 10 to the power 6.

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

NPS Nuclear Power Station

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

PR Public Relation

TB Tuberculosis

TNC Trans National Company

TNT Trinitrotoluene, a high explosive

TPS Thermal Power Station

UNCHS United Nations Commission on Human Settlements

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund

UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

WHO World Health Organization of the United Nations