City of Richmond Climate Change Adaptation Study APPENDIX City of Richmond Climate Action Plan Appendix F: Climate Change Adaptation Study Acknowledgements The City of Richmond has been an active participant in the Contra Costa County Adapting to Rising Tides Project, led by the Bay Conservation Development Commission (BCDC) in partnership with the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the State Coastal Conservancy, the San Francisco Estuary Partnership, the San Francisco Estuary Institute, Alameda County Flood Control and Water Conservation District and the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, and consulting firm AECOM. Environmental Science Associates (ESA) completed this Adaptation Study in coordination with BCDC, relying in part on reports and maps developed for the Adapting to Rising Tides project to assess the City of Richmond’s vulnerabilities with respect to sea level rise and coastal flooding. City of Richmond Climate Action Plan F-i Appendix F: Climate Change Adaptation Study This page intentionally left blank F-ii City of Richmond Climate Action Plan Appendix F: Climate Change Adaptation Study Table of Contents Acknowledgements i 1. Executive Summary 1 1.1 Coastal Flooding 2 1.2 Water Supply 2 1.3 Critical Transportation Assets 3 1.4 Vulnerable Populations 3 1.5 Summary 3 2. Study Methodology 4 2.1 Scope and Organize 4 2.2 Assess 4 2.3 Define 4 2.4 Plan 5 2.5 Implement and Monitor 5 3. Setting 6 3.1 Statewide Climate Change Projections 6 3.2 Bay Area Region Climate Change Projections 7 3.3 Community Assets 8 3.4 Relevant Local Planning Initiatives 9 3.5 Relevant State and Regional Planning Initiatives 10 4. Climate Change Exposures 14 4.1 Temperature 14 4.2 Precipitation 16 4.3 Drought 17 4.4 Wildfire 18 4.5 Sea Level Rise 19 5. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Framework 21 5.1 Vulnerability 21 5.2 Consequences 22 5.3 Risk Assessment 23 6. Asset Profiles: Vulnerability, Risk, and Response Actions 24 6.1 Emergency Response Services and Public Facilities 25 6.2 Public Health 30 6.3 Housing and Schools 37 6.4 Water Supply 46 6.5 Wastewater Management 49 6.6 Stormwater Management 55 6.7 Transportation Infrastructure 59 6.8 Flood Management 67 6.9 Energy Infrastructure 73 6.10 Solid Waste/Hazardous Materials Management 77 6.11 Parks, Natural Areas, and EcoSystems 86 6.12 Commercial and Industrial Assets 95 7. Sources 106 City of Richmond Climate Action Plan F-iii Appendix F: Climate Change Adaptation Study Figures Figure 4.1: Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature for A2 and B1 Scenarios 14 Figure 4.2: Number of Extreme Heat Days per Year – low emissions (B1) scenario 15 Figure 4.3: Number of Extreme Heat Days per Year – high emissions (A2) scenario 16 Figure 4.4: Decadal Average Precipitation to 2100 for A2 and B1 scenarios 17 Figure 4.5: Wildfire Hazard Areas in the City of Richmond 18 Figure 4.6: Potential Inundation from Sea Level Rise along Richmond Shoreline 20 Figure 6.1: Disadvantaged Communities in Richmond 26 Figure 6.2: Community Assets and Vulnerable Populations 26 Figure 6.3: City of Richmond Neighborhoods 37 Figure 6.4: Housing, Schools and Public Services – Richmond Southeast 38 Figure 6.5: Housing, Schools and Public Services – Richmond Port and Harbor Areas 38 Figure 6.6: Housing, Schools and Public Services – Richmond Northwest 39 Figure 6.7: City of Richmond Wastewater Assets 49 Figure 6.8: Map of City Stormwater Assets Potentially Affected by Sea Level Rise 56 Figure 6.9: City of Richmond Transportation Infrastructure 59 Figure 6.10: City of Richmond Shoreline Characteristics 67 Figure 6.11: City of Richmond Shoreline Characteristics 68 Figure 6.12: Current FEMA Flood Zones overlain with Sea Level Rise Projection 70 Figure 6.13: Industrial Parcels and Hazardous Materials Sites – Richmond Southeast 77 Figure 6.14: Industrial Parcels and Hazardous Materials Sites – Richmond Port and Harbor Areas 78 Figure 6.15: Industrial Parcels and Hazardous Materials Sites – Richmond Northwest 79 Figure 6.16: City of Richmond Shoreline Open Space 86 Figure 6.17: City of Richmond Parks and Open Space 87 Figure 6.18: Commercial Parcels – Richmond Southeast 95 Figure 6.19: Commercial Parcels – Richmond Port and Harbor Areas 96 Figure 6.20: Commercial Parcels – Richmond Northwest 97 Tables Table 6.1: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Community Services and Public Facilities 27 Table 6.2: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Public Health 31 Table 6.3: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Housing and Schools 41 Table 6.4: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Water Supply 47 Table 6.5: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Wastewater Management 52 Table 6.6: Stormwater Assets in the City of Richmond Potentially Affected by 6 Feet of Sea Level Rise Plus MHHW (NAVD88) 55 Table 6.7: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Stormwater Management 57 Table 6.8: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Transportation Infrastructure 62 Table 6.9: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Flood Management 70 Table 6.10: Richmond Power Substations Inundated by Current 100-year Flood and with Sea Level Rise 73 Table 6.11: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Energy Security and Infrastructure 74 Table 6.12: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Solid Waste/Hazardous Materials Management 81 F-iv City of Richmond Climate Action Plan Appendix F: Climate Change Adaptation Study Tables (continued) Table 6.13: Park Area and Percentage Inundated at Present and With Sea Level Rise for Regional Parks in Richmond 89 Table 6.14: Richmond City Parks Exposed to Current and/or Future Flood Risk 89 Table 6.15: Marinas in Richmond Exposed to Current and/or Future Flood Risk. 90 Table 6.16: Parks, Natural Areas, and EcoSystems 91 Table 6.17: Vulnerability and Risk Profile for Commercial and Industrial Assets 100 City of Richmond Climate Action Plan F-v Appendix F: Climate Change Adaptation Study This page intentionally left blank F-vi City of Richmond Climate Action Plan Appendix F: Climate Change Adaptation Study 1. Executive Summary The City of Richmond Climate Change Adaptation Study (Adaptation Study) examines a broad spectrum of the community’s climate change vulnerabilities and prioritizes potential adaptation responses based on the greatest risks, needs, and synergies with related planning efforts. The Adaptation Study is meant to guide adaptation planning by identifying important City-owned and community assets that are vulnerable to climate change impacts, assessing the risk that climate change poses to those assets, and recommending response actions that the City should integrate into its planning efforts to mitigate that risk. The overall goal is to establish a stronger framework for gathering data, making decisions, and prioritizing actions that will improve the City’s resilience to climate change over time. The Adaptation Study assesses vulnerabilities for the following twelve functional categories of community assets, which include City-owned or operated facilities deemed critical for operations, utility services, and risk management, and other assets that are important to community health, safety, and well-being: 1. Community Services and Public Facilities 7. Transportation Infrastructure 2. Public Health 8. Flood Management 3. Housing and Schools 9. Energy Infrastructure 4. Water Supply 10. Solid Waste/Hazardous Materials Management 5. Wastewater Management 11. Parks, Natural Areas, and Ecosystems 6. Stormwater Management 12. Commercial and Industrial Assets Richmond’s greatest risks related to climate change are a product of the City’s bayside setting, the inherent sensitivities of its Mediterranean climate, and its dependence on imported water from the distant Sierra Nevada Mountains as its primary water supply. Some of the City’s most critical assets are located in close proximity to the low-lying shoreline where risk of damage or disruption from sea level rise is significant. These include wastewater treatment facilities, residential neighborhoods, the Chevron Refinery and other industrial areas including the Port of Richmond, highways, rail lines, emergency response facilities, and parks. Climate change is expected to bring hotter and drier summers and winter storms that are predicted to be fewer in number but higher in intensity. These changes can stress natural habitats and public health while posing a potentially serious risk to the long-term reliability of the City’s potable water supply. Based on this study, the City-owned and community assets at highest risk from climate change by the year 2100 include the following: 1. Property and infrastructure located in areas along the Bay shore prone to coastal flooding from sea level rise, and associated higher risk of liquefaction during seismic events. Current levees are not designed to protect these assets from sea level rise; 2. The City’s long-term potable water supply, which is largely dependent on runoff from the Sierra Nevada Mountains, especially during dry years; 3. Road transportation assets including streets and highway approaches that are located in flood- prone areas along the Bay shore; 4. The health and well-being of the most vulnerable of the City’s residential populations, and its natural inhabitants (flora and fauna), which can experience severe stress from extreme heat, drought and extreme precipitation events. City of Richmond Climate Action Plan F-1 Appendix F: Climate Change Adaptation Study Richmond is already engaged in multiple planning efforts that address some or all of these risks, but this Adaptation Study represents the City’s first widely coordinated effort to identify and document vulnerabilities across a broad range of community assets and assess the risk of climate-related impacts to those assets over near-term (to 2050) and longer-term (to 2100) planning horizons. 1.1 Coastal Flooding Adaptation strategies for sea level rise should be woven into a comprehensive vision for the Bay shore that addresses climate change along with other issues including water quality, the protection of shoreline ecology, public access and recreation.