STATUS AND TRENDS OF INDICATORS OF ECOSYSTEM HEALTH

THE ESTUARY SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER DELTA The San Francisco Estuary Partnership collaborates with partners throughout the Bay and Delta on regional, science-based programs to increase the health and resilience of the San Francisco Estuary. Established as part of the National Estuary Program over 25 years ago by the State of California and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Partnership manages multi-benefit projects that improve the well-being of wildlife and human communities from the inland rivers to the Golden Gate.

More information can be found at sfestuary.org

SAN FRANCISCO ESTUARY PARTNERSHIP 375 Beale Street, Suite 700, San Francisco, CA 94105 © 2019 San Francisco Estuary Partnership. All rights reserved. Please cite as The State of the Estuary 2019, San Francisco Estuary Partnership.

The Delta Stewardship Council was created in 2009 by the California Legislature to advance the state’s coequal goals for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta through the development and enforcement of a long-term sustainable management plan. Informed by the Delta Science Program and Delta Independent Science Board, the Council oversees implementation of this plan through coordination and oversight of state and local agencies proposing to fund, carry out, and approve Delta-related activities.

More information can be found at deltacouncil.ca.gov STATUS AND TRENDS OF INDICATORS OF ECOSYSTEM HEALTH

THE ESTUARY SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER DELTA SAN FRANCISCO ESTUARY A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ESTUARY THAT INCLUDES THE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN DELTA, SUISUN BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... v

ESTUARY HEALTH SCORECARD 2019 vi

MAKING A POINT OF RESILIENCE ...... vii

UPDATED INDICATORS ...... 10

FRESHWATER FLOW ...... 11 TIDAL MARSH ...... 13 VOICES: RESIDENTS ENJOY CLOSE ENCOUNTERS WITH THE ESTUARY ...... 15. . FISH ...... 17 . . . . BENEFICIAL FLOODS ...... 21 . . . URBAN WATER USE ...... 23 . . . VOICES: LANDOWNERS CHOOSE TO DO MORE ...... 25. . .

EMERGING INDICATORS ...... 28

SUBSIDED LANDS ...... 29. . . . SHORE RESILIENCE ...... 3 1 . . . URBAN GREEN SPACE ...... 33 VOICES: WEAVING JUSTICE INTO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT ...... 35

LOOKING AHEAD ...... 38

PURSUING RESILIENCE ...... 39 ASSESSING THE STATE OF THE ESTUARY ...... 41 CREDITS AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...... 4 2. . . EXECUTIVE SUMMARY J. LETITIA GRENIER, LEAD SCIENTIST

The San Francisco fish and wildlife, and give people a place to flows through the Estuary and across its subsidence and nature-based features. Estuary is a large enjoy nature. We also need to think more floodplains continue to be well below Elevation relative to sea level is a basic and diverse system. about human communities as we assess levels that could increase and restore currency that must be tracked as the Pacific Hundreds of miles the health of natural communities. This ecosystem health. Freshwater flows are Ocean rises into the Estuary. The potential of coastline stretch focus means addressing environmental a lynchpin of ecosystem processes that for the Estuary shore to be resilient to

Photo: Amber Manfree from the wide valleys injustices that are deeply embedded in sustain physical habitats, fuel the food climate change and continue to provide of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers our culture and patterns of development. web, and regulate water quality. Creative benefits to people is related to how much to the steep headlands of the Golden Gate, The second critical issue to emerge is the approaches to using and re-using fresh of the shore zone is nature-based. The final with vast agricultural fields in the Delta and need for a greater focus on landscape water for environmental purposes are emerging indicator, urban green space, urbanized shorelines in Silicon Valley and resilience—how well the Bay and the Delta needed. Long-term trend analysis shows is a first attempt to assess how access many of the region’s cities. The complexity are equipped to respond to change—so that fish communities in the Bay are to nature is distributed across more and and scale of this system means it can that people and wildlife can thrive as declining. This analysis scores an index of less advantaged communities. More work take years to detect and assess changes. climate change progresses. Taking these 10 attributes of a healthy fish community. is needed to finalize all these emerging This interim State of the Estuary Report two ideas together, this report focuses The index focuses on fish in offshore indicators before they can be included in checks in on a few indicators of health and on the nexus of social and ecological areas, and may not capture benefits to any future quantitative assessment of the explores where the assessment should resilience as we look toward the future. fish from near-shore wetland restoration State of the Estuary. head over time. projects. Despite this slow decline, fish The first section of the Report updates These emerging and updated indicators communities in the saltier parts of the In the four years since the indicators of ecological health that span will help focus efforts to restore the 2015 State of the Estuary remain in good condition, while , two issues have emerged the entire extent of the San Francisco Estuary’s health. In addition to continuing Estuary Report those in the brackish and freshwater as critical to how we assess the health of the Estuary (Bay and Delta). Recent data show the successful aspects of restoration and areas are in poor condition. estuarine ecosystem at the heart of the Bay continued progress along the trajectories conservation that this report describes, Area and the Delta. First, the health of the of the past decade. Tidal marsh restoration The next section of the report discusses we need more investment in creative ways Estuary and of the people who live near it is proceeding at a brisk pace in the Bay three emerging indicators of Estuary to use and restore flows for environmental and depend on it are inextricably linked. We and gaining traction in the Delta, while health, offering options for how to assess health, to expand and build resilient need a healthy Bay and Delta to protect our urban water conservation continues resilience in future reports. Here, for the shorelines and to weave considerations shorelines from sea level rise, help keep our to meet mandated benchmarks, even first time, the resilience of the Estuary’s of social equity more strongly into efforts waters clean, provide food and habitat for during the drought. On the other hand, shores is evaluated through the lens of to improve environmental health.

v STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 INTRODUCTION vi ESTUARY HEALTH SCORECARD 2019

STATUS AND INDICATOR AT A GLANCE TREND

ESTUARY Freshwater flows in the Estuary have been highly altered, causing reductions in inter-annual and seasonal FRESHWATER variability, and peak-flows. Freshwater flows into the Estuary in recent years reflect chronic artificial drought FLOW conditions, in sharp contrast to unimpaired flows.

Tidal marsh acreage throughout the Estuary has declined significantly from the historical amount, but restoration AY DELTA TIDAL e orts are bringing back this critical ecosystem and associated benefits. Projects in the Bay are making extensive MARSH contributions to tidal marsh area, while e orts in the Delta are beginning to make progress towards regional goals.

The condition of fish communities varies across the Estuary. In the lower Estuary, fish communities are abundant,

AY DELTA diverse, and dominated by native species. However, in the brackish and freshwater upper Estuary, native fish FISH communities are in poor condition. Based on long-term monitoring data, native fish communities across the Bay are declining. In San Francisco and San Pablo Bays, this long-term data set is from sampling only the o shore areas of the Bay and may not reflect benefits to fish populations from recent wetland restoration.

AY DELTA The frequency, magnitude, and duration of floodplain inundation in both the Bay and the Delta are too low to BENEFICIAL support healthy estuarine habitats and sustain important ecological processes. While conditions have been FLOODS variable over time, they have, in general, remained poor in the Delta and have declined in the Bay.

In both the Bay and Delta, total and per-capita urban water use have declined over the last several decades, despite AY DELTA URBAN growing populations. More e icient urban water use means that both regions met and exceeded benchmarks for WATER USE per-capita use and drought-reduction targets. The regions have modestly increased water use since the end of the drought but still maintained improvements over their 2020 benchmarks for reductions in per-capita use.

LEGEND

STATUS TREND

Good Fair Poor Improving No Change Declining Mixed

v STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 INTRODUCTION vi MAKING A POINT OF RESILIENCE CAITLIN SWEENEY, DIRECTOR, SAN FRANCISCO ESTUARY PARTNERSHIP

Now more than ever, it is important to know whether our efforts to repair and restore the San Francisco Estuary are actually working. In a time of shrinking budgets, changing conditions, and mounting pressure to achieve as many benefits as possible with each project, knowing the degree of real progress can be a game changer.

Good data and sound science enable us to show both the public and the private sector the actual degree to which the ecosystem is improving or becoming more resilient. It’s not a matter of just checking our work one time and walking away. These checkups must occur many times over many years, especially as we learn from our mistakes and innovate our approaches.

This interim report is made to Delta and Bay Area citizens on the heels of our more comprehensive 2015 State of the Estuary Report, and the reports that preceded it. The San Francisco Estuary Partnership came into being in 1988 and has been working collaboratively with dozens of federal, state, NGO, community and business partners to protect and restore our Bay and Delta ever since. The Partnership’s long-standing effort to assess progress began with early research and biennial conferences, evolved into a collaboration with the Bay Institutes's pioneering 10-indicator Scorecard, and has since expanded to measure specific indicators of water quality, fish community health, habitat extent, and more. Further, we are now measuring them in the same way, year to year, so that results are directly comparable, and also checking the results against management goals set in our multi-partner 2016 Estuary Blueprint.

I am proud to continue this tradition by presenting this report and our results at the October 2019 State of the Estuary conference. This interim report reviews more recent data on five of the indicators assessed in 2015 for changes and trends — singling out key indicators that address the health of the whole Estuary, not just the Bay or the Delta, and also indicators that reflect public priorities, such as the extent of tidal marsh and the amount of freshwater flows to the system. Photo: Joe Galkowski

vii STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 INTRODUCTION viii This interim report also identifies and presents three new, emerging indicators that reflect our current concerns about how to respond to rising sea levels and increased flooding, and how to link these endeavors to the plight of communities at risk, or suffering environmental injustices, all around us. Our region is getting hotter, more fiery, and more susceptible to flooding, as well as less livable for many. These new indicators help us assess our resilience to these new challenges and new extremes.

Finally, this interim report presents some of the voices of our Estuary, the real people who farm, or manage land, or enjoy waterfront recreation, or who wonder if their proximity to our shorelines and riverbanks will be a good or a bad thing in the future. It is our residents, teachers, students, business owners, and local communities who will really decide the Estuary’s health by becoming a part of the solution, as we have tried to show in the VOICES sections of this report.

Looking ahead, we hope you will all become involved in influencing the state of your Estuary, at the heart of your Bay and your Delta. I also call on my colleagues — planners Caitlin Sweeney, SFEP Director and J. Letitia Grenier, Science Lead. and managers of our environment — to embrace the task of nurturing a broader resilience Photo: Shira Bezalel than we might find within our programmatic or jurisdictional boundaries. The projects we manage and the people and species they affect are all one, and we must recognize and work through the complexities. It will take much more than measures of acreage, elevation, and access to sustain California’s ecosystems and residents in the future.

vii STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 INTRODUCTION viii 9 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 10 A look at five central measures of Estuary health — freshwater flow, UPDATED tidal marsh extent, native fish communities, beneficial flooding, INDICATORS and how much water humans use in urban areas.

Photo: Ben Botkin

9 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 10 FRESHWATER FLOW UPDATED INDICATOR

In the last few years, the San Francisco and high flows transport nutrients, Water diversions on rivers and in the Delta, amount, timing, and duration of seasonal Estuary has continued to experience a sediments and organisms to and through the upstream region of the San Francisco flows in the Estuary’s tributary rivers. As perpetual drought in terms of freshwater the Bay, promote mixing and circulation, Estuary, also remove water for local temperatures warm in inland valleys and flows from the watershed that enter the and flush contaminants out to sea. agricultural or urban use or for export California’s population continues to grow, system, despite variation in precipitation to other areas of California, reducing the both farms and cities will need more water during these years. As discussed in the The San Francisco Estuary receives 90% amount of water that flows to the lower and will also need to use water more of its freshwater flow from the watersheds 2015 State of the Estuary Report, the Estuary. Climate change is increasingly efficiently. Conservation and management amount, timing, and patterns of freshwater of the Sacramento and San Joaquin driving shifts in precipitation patterns updates to address future conditions are flow into the San Francisco Estuary from Rivers, which drain nearly one third of the and timing of snowmelt, altering the an urgent priority. tributary rivers and streams are critical state. Both natural factors and human drivers of the Estuary’s health. Freshwater activities affect these inflows. California’s flows control the quality and quantity of Mediterranean climate and unpredictable estuarine habitat, support key ecological cycles of wet and dry years produce large processes, and significantly affect the inter-annual and seasonal variations in abundance and survival of estuarine biota, precipitation and runoff. Freshwater flows from tiny planktonic plants and animals to the Estuary during a wet, flood year can to shrimp and fish. The mixing of inflowing be nearly ten times greater than inflows fresh water and salt water from the ocean during a drought year. creates low salinity, or brackish water Flows are also affected by people. habitat for estuary-dependent species. Dams capture and store runoff from the Seasonal and inter-annual changes mountains for release into the rivers in inflow amounts trigger biological flowing to the Estuary at different times of responses like reproduction and migration, the year, and even for release in later years.

Photo: Ken James, DWR

11 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 12 FRESHATER FO

4 OOD

3 FAIR

2 POOR 1 FRESHWATER INFLOW INDEX INFLOW FRESHWATER

0 1939 1959 1979 1999 2019

INDICATOR STATUS AND TRENDS Photo: Amber Manfree The freshwater flow Index uses ten sub-metrics to assess The steady decline in the freshwater flow index over the 79 the amount, timing, and variability of freshwater flow from years of record as of 2018 has not changed in recent years STATUS AND TREND the Sacramento-San Joaquin watershed into the Delta and covered by this State of the Estuary update. Freshwater flows to the Bay. Most of the sub-metrics are calculated as comparisons the San Francisco Estuary have continued to decline in amount between actual freshwater flow conditions and flow conditions and variability, creating persistent artificial drought conditions. ESTUARY that would have occurred on the contemporary landscape The long-term decline in the index value has been driven by if there were no dams or water diversions in the watershed, declines in nine of the ten sub-metrics of freshwater flow referred to as unimpaired flow conditions. By incorporating conditions (i.e., all of the metrics except Annual Delta Inflow). unimpaired inflow into the measurement, the metrics are The four lowest values have all occurred in the last decade normalized to account for the natural year-to-year variations in (2009, 2010, 2016, and 2018), with the record low in EGEND precipitation and runoff in the Estuary’s watershed. Thus, the 2016 and the third lowest value in 2018. index assesses the degree to which flow conditions have been STATUS Good Fair Poor altered; the index is not a direct measurement of the aquatic habitat conditions (see Open Water Habitat, SOTER 2015, not

updated here) or ecological processes driven by freshwater TREND Improving No Change Declining Mixed flows (see Beneficial Floods, p. 21).

11 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 12 TIDAL MARSH UPDATED INDICATOR

Over the last 200 years, humans damage, absorbing floodwaters, filtering Panned Area transformed and developed almost out contaminants, and sequestering Year Opened t Tida etand Recent Restratin Sites 90% of the Estuary’s marshes, a major carbon. These habitats on the doorstep Tida Actin Restratin Acres landscape change described in the 2015 of millions of people also provide places State of the Estuary Report. In the to be in and appreciate nature, and to BAY 2015 last few decades, however, people have engage in scientific study, education, come to realize how valuable estuarine and recreation. Corte Madera Marsh wetlands are to the region and its future Ecological Reserve Restoration – As restoration work continues in the 2015 0.27 resilience, and scientists and resource Greenbrae Gas Pipeline Bay and Delta, and as taxpayers invest managers have been working hard to Emergency Replacement Project in these habitats through the Bay restore Bay and Delta wetlands. These Restoration Authority and other initiatives, Sears Point Wetland and restorations create complex habitats 2015 970 it is important to track increases in tidal Watershed Restoration Project that span important ecological gradients marsh acreage and impacts on the state (such as tidal to non-tidal and salt to of the Estuary. As the total area of tidal Bair Island Restoration (Inner) 2015 276 freshwater), providing a range of options marsh in the Estuary increases, so will the for marsh species and helping improve abundance and diversity of the plants and the overall health of the Estuary. Dotson Family Marsh Restoration 2017 150 animals associated with this ecosystem. Tidal marshes provide a wide array Steady improvements resulting from these Corte Madera Ecological Reserve 2018 5 of ecosystem services. These include investments will be challenged by rising Expansion and Restoration providing habitat for wildlife including sea levels, however, increasing the urgent several rare native species, acting as need for efforts to keep marshes resilient TOTAL (BAY) 101 nurseries for young fish, stabilizing and functional. DETA shorelines and buffering them from storm 2015 Decker Island 2017 140 Yolo Flyway Farms 2018 300

TOTAL (DELTA) 0

13 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 14 TIDA MARSH

BAY DELTA 400,000 400,000

350,000 350,000

300,000 300,000 OOD 250,000 250,000

200,000 200,000 Acres 150,000 150,000

100,000 100,000FAIR

50,000 50,000POOR

0 0 1800 1997 2009 2015 2019 1800 2002 2015 2019

INDICATOR STATUS AND TRENDS This indicator quantifies tidal marsh extent context: the pre-19th century extent of Estuary-wide tidal marsh extent has in the Bay and Delta, which have different tidal marsh in the Delta was 360,000 grown by more than 1,800 acres since the benchmarks for restoration progress. acres; 78,000 acres are currently marsh or 2015 Report, most of that within the Bay. Photo: Shira Bezalel For the Bay, scientists and managers diked lands at intertidal elevations; and, Combined with restored tidal wetlands set a long-term goal of 100,000 acres if the California EcoRestore Goals were that could transition to tidal marshes in STATUS AND TREND (approximately one-half of the tidal marsh achieved, the total marsh extent in the the future, the total extent of tidal marshes area ca. 1800) in the 1999 Baylands Delta would be 17,000 acres (see Technical exceeds one-half of the regional goal of Ecosystem Habitat Goals Report. This Appendix for details). Marsh patch size, 100,000 acres in the Bay. In the Delta, the BAY DELTA goal reflects consensus on the habitat which was evaluated in the 2015 Report, extent of tidal marsh and restored tidal needs of native tidal marsh species and is not included here because it is changing wetlands that could transition into tidal necessary improvements to ecological slowly as restoration progresses. marshes is approximately 8,300 acres. functions and biodiversity in the Bay. No While this extent is expected to increase in similar quantitative, consensus-driven coming years as more EcoRestore projects EGEND goal currently exists for the Delta. Three are implemented, this number is still well

reference values help put the current below the reference acreages discussed STATUS Good Fair Poor extent of tidal marsh in the Delta into above. Although substantial work remains to achieve restoration targets, the extent of tidal marsh in both the Bay and Delta TREND Improving No Change Declining Mixed is improving.

13 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 14 VOICES

Residents Enjoy Close Encounters with the Estuary

Photo: Treasure Island Sailing Center

Over the last few decades, major efforts have been made to improve the quality of entire Bay Trail, segment by segment. After two years of walking the trail once a month, the Estuary’s environment and natural habitats. Simultaneously, many more miles of they are more than halfway around. They have traversed beautiful neighborhoods, shoreline — sites once off limits and used for industry and the military — are now open homeless camps, and wildlife refuges. to the public all around the Bay and up in the Delta. These investments have not only improved water quality and reduced fish contamination but have also welcomed more “There’s so much you haven’t seen that you think you have,” says Christianson. “We only people to the Estuary’s shores, sloughs, rivers and open waters. As a result, thousands got in trouble once for trespassing,” she adds. of residents are now taking advantage of growing opportunities for play and recreation Those who hike the Bay Area Ridge Trail, which has dedicated 360 miles of its in and around the Estuary. Research shows that having nature accessible near daily 550-planned miles, often have stellar views of the Bay. Those who enjoy being on the activities improves human health and restores the mind. water can now take advantage of the San Francisco Bay Water Trail, which links launch Around the Bay itself, there are different ways to recreate. Some people just like to be sites and camp sites for kayaks and other non-motorized small boats. Nearly half of its near it either on the shore or in the water. Compared to 1965 when only four miles of 45 of 111 planned launch sites have been designated since 2011. trails were available for public use on the shoreline, today’s access is monumental. The Since much of the Estuary is so shallow, small human-powered vessels allow everyone San Francisco Bay Trail has completed 355 of its planned 500 miles. from those sampling water quality in the margins to those surveying bird nests on The trails are popular, and people use them to walk, jog, hike, bike, or take their dogs offshore islands to gather information and experience sloughs and backwaters for a stroll. Some return to the same spot daily, while others have more ambitious goals. firsthand. Such field observations are key to understanding the effects of our Barbara Christianson, Sally Dinwoodie, and a group of friends are circumnavigating the restoration actions on species.

15 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 16 Some people like to get close to the the pastime of generations, and a way wind and water by sailing. Others are of life for farmers and local residents. passionate about introducing young Delta residents celebrate the arrival of people to the sport. sandhill cranes every year with a festival, embracing the elegant bird as a beloved It is estimated that five percent of icon of their shared landscape. students who live in the Bay Area have never been out on the water, said former “It’s a Garden of Eden here,” says Steve Call of the Sea staff member Mary Rutz. Heringer, whose family has farmed in Call of the Sea takes 5,000 students sailing the North Delta since the 1860s and who each year. The kids can be scared, at first. delights in the sight of turtles sliding into Elk Slough, and egrets fishing nearby. “They are holding onto the gangway, and there’s lots of chatter and squeals,” says In the last few decades, progress has Rutz, who adds that after a three-hour sail also been made toward a continuous that changes. “It’s a total transformation. Clay Schmitz, S.F. Baykeeper recreational corridor trail network through They are literally dancing as they go back all five Delta counties under the Great “(Swimming in the Bay) It’s a way to connect up the gangway to leave.” with nature, the wild, in an urban area.” Delta Trail Master Plan. This corridor would link the San Francisco Bay Trail system Treasure Island Sailing Center, which — Sejal Choksi-Chugh, Executive Director, San Francisco Baykeeper and planned Sacramento River trails with runs the Set Sail Learn program, puts present and future Delta trailways. more than 1,000 kids in boats each year. Introducing children to the estuarine Whether people are near, on, or in the world on their doorstep does more than Estuary, those who commune with it give them a taste of nature. are more likely to be aware of its health vice president of San Francisco’s South were everywhere a number of years ago, and the need to invest in its future. Bay End Rowing Club. “There’s something and all of a sudden they died.” “We feel that sailing, and learning to sail, Area residents even voted recently to tax is the best way to develop life skills such about swimming in the water with other The San Francisco Baykeeper encourages themselves to further restore the natural as decision making, communication, grit, creatures. It is spiritual and connects you swimming in the Bay. “It’s a way to health of the Estuary shore. and teamwork,” says executive director to the earth.” connect with nature, the wild, in an Travis Lund. “People recognize the Bay as an important Swimmers witness environmental changes urban area,” says executive director resource,” says Laura Thompson, project firsthand. “We know when there are things Sejal Choksi-Chugh. Perhaps the most intimate way to manager for the San Francisco Bay Trail. experience the Estuary is to swim in it. going on in the water because we swim in In the Delta region, boating, hunting and “They want to get close to it.” “Swimming in the Bay is one of my favorite it,” says Hegeler, who gives as an example fishing around waterways have been things in the world,” says Fran Hegeler, the disappearance of sea stars. “Sea stars

15 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 16 FISH UPDATED INDICATOR

The San Francisco Estuary is home to waters as spawning and rearing habitat for Many stressors negatively impact native that is dominated by native species, a diverse fish community that includes their young, while others pass through the fish in the Estuary. Loss of tidal marsh which in turn are widespread throughout several species and unique populations Bay and Delta as they migrate between and floodplain habitats, pollution, and their native range, is an indicator of a that are found nowhere else on Earth. The the Pacific Ocean and the rivers of the alteration of the amount and timing healthy Estuary. Restoring a healthy fish Estuary provides habitat for commercially watershed. Fish populations that are of freshwater flows have all been community throughout the Estuary will important Chinook salmon and Pacific native to the San Francisco Estuary play linked to the decline of native fish. require focused attention on the upper herring, as well as rare and endangered an important role in local food webs, Measures of fish abundance, diversity, Estuary, where conditions are currently species, such as the Central Valley feeding humans and other animals as species composition, and distribution the poorest. Conditions favorable to some steelhead, green sturgeon, longfin smelt, well as providing nutrients and energy to are useful biological gauges for these species today may shift in the future as and Delta smelt. Of the over 100 fish related ecosystems. environmental conditions in the Estuary. the water in the upper Estuary becomes species found in the Estuary, some use its An abundant, diverse community of fish warmer and saltier with climate change.

BAY FISH COMMUNITIES

4 SOUTH BAY CENTRAL BAY SAN PABLO BAY SUISUN BAY OOD OOD OOD 3 2017 2017 FAIR FAIR 2 FAIR 2017 POOR POOR BAY FISH INDEX BAY 1 POOR

2017 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

17 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 18 FISH

INDICATORS Fish communities differ between the salty and distribution. The results for each of from three long-term sampling programs. Bay and the brackish and fresh waters these attributes were aggregated into a Fish The approach mirrors that used in the Bay farther upstream in Suisun Bay and the Index score for each of the four sub-regions. Fish Index but offers a different perspective Delta. As such, the State of the Estuary fish These analyses rely on data from the focused solely on the upper Estuary. analysis has different indicators for the Bay Interagency Ecological Program’s Bay Study (lower Estuary) and Delta (upper Estuary). which samples fish in the offshore waters of The benchmarks (or reference conditions) for the lower Estuary. New data from shallow the Bay Fish indicator are based on measured The Bay Fish Index uses ten metrics areas restored to tidal influence in the values from 1980-1989 (the earliest years for to evaluate the status and trends of South Bay are now available to understand most of the surveys), maximum measured the Estuary’s fish community in four how these habitats are used by fish, and values for the Estuary or sub-regions, sub-regions: South, Central, San Pablo they will be incorporated into future recognized interpretations of ecosystem and Suisun Bays. The metrics evaluate health, and best professional judgment. iterations of this report as appropriate. Photo: Scott McReynolds different attributes of the fish community: The upper Estuary fish indicator mirrors this abundance, diversity, species composition, The upper Estuary fish indicator uses data approach for setting benchmarks. STATUS AND TREND

BAY DELTA

EGEND

STATUS Good Fair Poor

Fish researchers from different agencies collaborate on Suisun Marsh sampling. TREND Improving No Change Declining Mixed

Photo: Amber Manfree

17 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 18

FISH UPDATED INDICATOR

STATUS AND TRENDS In the lower Estuary, the condition of the and, in Suisun, distribution. This trend is Bay fish community differs among the four based upon fish sampled in the offshore sub-regions. Fish abundance, diversity, waters of the lower Estuary. The trend for species composition, and distribution were fish in the shallow margins of the Bay is all highest in Central and South Bays, where unknown, as no regional long-term data overall conditions (the Fish Index) were set exists for that habitat type. Recent consistently good. Conditions in San Pablo data from South Bay show that restored Bay were generally good but with lower wetlands there are highly used by fish, abundance levels and higher prevalence of including endangered longfin smelt. non-native fish species. Fish communities in Suisun Bay were in poor condition, with In the upper Estuary, fish communities relatively low abundance, diversity, native are in poor condition in most sub-regions species composition, and distribution. examined, with mixed trends. The state of these communities reflects a long- Although the overall score for Bay fish term decline derived from many factors was good, the condition of the fish described earlier, and from shorter-term community has been declining in all sub- adverse conditions imposed by the regions of the Bay over the entire 38-year 2012-2016 drought and related water study period. Declines in Bay fish indices management actions. As an exception to were most dramatic in Suisun and San the overall trend, proportion of native fish Pablo Bays, driven by drops in metrics showed an improvement in Suisun Marsh of abundance, species composition, during the last five years.

To assess restoration success, researchers measure the carcasses of salmon returning to spawn in Putah Creek.

Photo: Robin Meadows

19 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 20 UPPER ESTUARY FISH COMMUNITIES

UPPER ESTUARY SUBREGION STATUS TREND INDICATORS

Suisun Marsh Fair Declining

Suisun Bay Pelagic Very Poor Declining Native Fish Abundance Central-West Delta Very Poor Declining Photo: James Ervin Pelagic

Delta Beach Zone Very Poor Declining

Suisun Marsh Poor Improving

Suisun Bay Pelagic Poor Stable Percent Native Fish Central-West Delta Very Poor Stable Pelagic

Delta Beach Zone Very Poor Declining Photo: James Ervin

Suisun Marsh Poor Stable

Suisun Bay Pelagic Fair Stable Percent Native Species Central-West Delta Very Poor Declining Pelagic

Delta Beach Zone Very Poor Stable Photo: James Ervin

19 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 20 BENEFICIAL FLOODS UPDATED INDICATOR

Before people built dams, diversion Dams and diversions substantially large areas of productive, low-salinity times to simulate natural flows. structures, and levees on most of the modified the frequency, magnitude, and habitat in Suisun and San Pablo Bays. Accommodating beneficial flooding, rivers in the Sacramento-San Joaquin duration of high volume flows through and absorbing more future flooding watershed, the rivers would flood, spilling the Delta and into San Francisco Bay. Today, resource managers are working caused by climate change, is possible over their banks when snow melted each Although seasonal high flows occur less to reestablish historical floodplain with good design, multi-benefit project spring. This process sent high volumes of frequently now, when they do occur they habitat and riparian woodlands in some planning, and science to measure fresh water into the Estuary and created still drive multiple ecological processes. locations, giving rivers more room to outcomes. However, the extensive shallows and floodplain habitat important These include activating food webs on move and flood. There are also efforts alteration of Estuary waterways to the health of the estuarine food web. tidal and fluvial floodplains and creating to release water from dams at strategic development right up to the edge of so many rivers and shores makes strategies such as setting back levees to reestablish floodplains challenging in some locations. Since the 2015 State of the Estuary Report, the capacity of older upstream water storage facilities (Oroville) and watershed drainage infrastructure to handle high rainfall events such as occurred in the very wet winter of 2017 has been put severely to the test. Updating aging dams and diversions based on new conditions and science, and expanding current efforts to open up floodplains and build multi-benefit infrastructure, will be key to the region’s future resilience. High water event at Cosumnes River Preserve delivers sediment and nutrients to Delta habitats.

Photos: Judah Grossman, The Nature Conservancy

21 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 22 BENEFICIA FOODS

BENEFICIA FOODS 4 OOD

3 FAIR

2 POOR

BENEFICIA FOODS INDEX FOODS BENEFICIA 1

0 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

EEND DETA BA

Photo: Amber Manfree INDICATOR STATUS AND TRENDS STATUS AND TRENDS This beneficial flooding analysis uses two indicators are based on three types of The frequency, magnitude, and duration separate indicators for the Bay and Delta data: unimpaired flow (see Freshwater of floodplain inundation and high-volume to measure and evaluate the frequency, Flows p. 11) and flood data records; inflows to the Estuary continue to be BAY DELTA magnitude, and duration of ecologically biological information on floodplain too low to drive or support important important high-volume flow or flood habitat, productivity dynamics, and use ecological processes in the lower events. The first indicator measures for spawning, rearing and migration; and watershed and Estuary. Bay and Delta floodplain inundation by evaluating current regulatory standards for minimum flood flows have not met primary reference seasonal inflows to the Delta from the Bay inflows. Status was determined by conditions in nine of the last ten years. The EGEND Yolo Bypass, the large, partially managed evaluating flows according to reference exception was 2017, the seventh wettest floodplain immediately upstream of conditions for frequency, magnitude, year in the 88-year data record. Overall, the Estuary in the lower Sacramento and duration. These three scores were flood conditions have fallen below the STATUS Good Fair Poor River basin. The second indicator then averaged for an overall score of the standard needed to support healthy measures flood events by evaluating indicator status. estuarine habitats, sustain critical ecological TREND Improving No Change Declining Mixed high volume freshwater flows to the Bay. processes, and meet regional management The benchmarks for evaluation of both goals (Estuary Blueprint 2016).

21 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 22 URBAN WATER USE UPDATED INDICATOR

Human water use reduces the amount of watersheds, such as the Napa River and earthquakes and droughts, and cuts the feet, and the per-person use in gallons fresh water available for other beneficial Alameda, Coyote, Los Gatos, and San costs of treating and transporting water. per capita per day (gpcd or per-capita uses, such as sustaining the Estuary’s Mateo Creeks. The remaining 15% is from As previewed in the 2015 State of the use). Residential use is not part of the 2019 native species, habitats, and other groundwater, which is a locally significant Estuary Report, the 2012-2016 drought indicator discussed here, but is assessed in ecosystem services. Withdrawals of supply source to urban users in the mobilized collective action and stimulated the 2015 Report Technical Appendix for the surface and groundwater for use by the Santa Clara and Livermore Valleys, and in changes in how we use water. Although the Bay region. The new Delta-Suisun region communities and farms in and around Fremont and the North Bay. Non-potable long-term decrease in the Estuary’s urban indicator only measures the total urban the San Francisco Estuary total about 2.1 recycled water is a small (about 5%) but water use is a hopeful trend, the challenges water use and the total per capita use (data million acre-feet per year (maf/yr), with growing supply source in the Bay region. and threats of recurring drought, warming were not available for residential use and about half going to homes, businesses, temperatures, population growth, and the total use for longer periods). These institutions, and industries and half About 25% (0.27 maf/yr) of the Estuary’s greater stresses on freshwater-dependent measures of potable or drinkable water do used for agriculture. About 90% of the urban water use is from the communities ecosystems require still more efficiency not include recycled water (see the 2015 agricultural use is in the Delta and drawn within and adjacent to the Delta’s Secondary and less dependence on using potable Technical Appendix for additional details). from local channels. Zone and Suisun Marsh, including the City of water to meet urban water needs. Another Sacramento. Over 80% of the supply for those drought is inevitable, and this indicator The benchmarks used to evaluate About 75% (0.84 maf/yr) of the Estuary’s communities comes from the diversion of will continue to track whether urban water progress on this indicator are targets urban water use is in the cities and towns surface water from the Sacramento and users have made conservation a way of life. based on the goals of the state’s 2009 in the watersheds surrounding the San San Joaquin Rivers in the Delta and their Water Conservation Act (SBX7-7), which Francisco Bay. Most of the Bay region’s tributaries. Groundwater is an important INDICATOR established targets for reductions in per- urban water supply — nearly 75% in an supply for communities such as Stockton, This update to the urban water use capita use by 2015 and 2020. For the Bay average year — is imported, primarily Sacramento, Brentwood, and Discovery Bay. indicator includes estimates of Delta use region a regional target of 125 gpcd for from the Delta and Sierra rivers, with for the first time. Due to differences in data 2020 and 137 gpcd for 2015 was previously Although greater precipitation and runoff smaller amounts from the Russian River availability, the indicator is separated into determined by the state. For this report’s in recent years have eliminated mandatory and Lagunitas Creek. As a result, the Bay two regions — Bay and Delta-Suisun. The Delta-Suisun region, there is no state conservation, conserving water is still a region relies more on imported water Bay indicator measures both the total established regional goal, but one was priority for urban water suppliers and the than any other region in the state. Less urban water use and just the residential determined for 2015 (205 gpcd) and 2020 state. Water conservation increases water than 10% of the Bay Area’s urban supply portion (single and multi-family) in two (180 gpcd) by calculating a 10% reduction supply reliability, reduces vulnerability to is withdrawn from surface water in local ways: the annual potable volume in acre- (for 2015) and 20% reduction (for 2020)

23 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 24 URBAN ATER USE DELTA-SUISUN WATER USE PER CAPITA in the Bay region, it also showed the same 140 trend of increasing population, decreasing OOD 160 total water use, and increased efficiency. Overall, per-capita use declined by 31% in 180 FAIR the Delta-Suisun region. 200 The 20% per-capita use reduction target POOR

GALLONS PER CAPITA 220 for 2020 was achieved in the Bay and Delta- Suisun regions by 2014 and continued 240 to drop through 2015 and 2016. The two 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 regions also achieved drought-imposed reduction targets in total volumetric water BAY AREA ATER USE ER CAITA use by 2016. Many individual suppliers 90 OOD easily achieved their 2020 benchmarks 110 for reductions in per-capita use. The 8%

130 F gpcd increase in the two regions since the drought was expected, and can be 150 attributed to population and economic

170 POOR growth, as well as increases in outdoor AONS ER CAITA water use after the drought, particularly in 190 the hotter inland regions. Photo: Sally Dinwoodie 210 1986 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 F Despite the recent increases in per-capita FAIR use, dramatic and sustained long-term STATUS AND TRENDS from the 2005 regional gpcd, determined suppliers since the drought. Consistent gains in water-use efficiency have been by population-weighting the individual with the trends in coastal California, achieved because of existing regulations, suppliers’ gpcd values. Additional targets the Bay region used 27% less potable plumbing standards, technological BAY DELTA from which to evaluate progress in total water in 2017 than in 1986, despite a 31% progress on appliance and industrial and residential use, including the State increase in population over the same efficiency, and landscape transformations Water Board’s 2015 and 2016 requirements period. This combination indicates that lowering potable water use. To provide to reduce total use during the drought, are water is now being used much more ongoing potable water-use savings, discussed in the Technical Appendix. efficiently on a per-capita basis; the 110 efficiency efforts will need to encompass EGEND gallons per capita per day in 2017 is a STATUS AND TRENDS greater use of locally derived, non-potable little more than half of the 200 gallons sources, such as recycled wastewater for In the four years since the 2015 State of STATUS Good Fair Poor used 30 years ago. direct and indirect potable uses as well the Estuary Report, both Bay and Delta- the onsite reuse of graywater, rainwater, Suisun regions maintained the longer- Although water use in the Delta-Suisun and stormwater. TREND Improving No Change Declining Mixed term trend of reduced potable water use region was evaluated over a much shorter despite modest increases by some retail time period, 13 years versus the 32 years

23 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 24 VOICES

Landowners Choose to Do More

Photo: Delta Protection Commission

Scientists and resource managers constantly evaluate indicators of Estuary health— “We’re just caretakers of the land,” says Bruce Cakebread, one of the property owners. from inflows of freshwater to numbers of native fish to the growth of wetlands around Both he and Michael Honig of Honig Winery & Vineyard, another riverside landowner, the Bay—but citizens who own land around the edges of the Estuary and its rivers and say their decision to get their neighbors on board for the restoration project was streams are also doing their part, hands-on, to help, sometimes partnering with NGOs a matter of principle, a sense that the river gave them what they have—including and government agencies and sometimes on their own. Their actions, from giving the rich soil they use to grow grapes—and this project was a way to give back. “Not floodplains back to large rivers to sharing crops with wildlife to stabilizing creek banks, every piece of ground has to have a grapevine in it. This is just adjusting the balance,” are improving water quality and providing much-needed habitat for wildlife. Cakebread says.

On the Napa River, two vintners gave up two and a half acres of fertile grape-growing The property owners formed a new Maintenance Assessment District for the reach—for land to restore a stretch of river that had become choked with silt. Water quality in the the next 20 years they will voluntarily pay a small amount toward removing invasive river was so poor in the Rutherford Reach that the San Francisco Bay Regional Water species and repairing any stream bank erosion that occurs. Quality Control Board was preparing to list it as impaired and to impose strict water use limits on riverside landowners. Instead, the landowners partnered with Napa County on In Hamilton City, west of Chico, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers partnered with a $20 million restoration project that reconnected the river to its floodplain at strategic The Nature Conservancy and River Partners to purchase flooded almond fields in locations, allowing sediment to fall out in the right places and providing spawning order to set back a levee on the Sacramento River, giving the river room to move and habitat for salmon. The vintners think their flexible, cooperative approach to restoration reconnect with its floodplain. Close to 1,500 acres of new riparian vegetation between on private land could be an example for others, and in fact a new nine-mile stretch the river and the levee are busy sequestering carbon, while local farmers continue downstream is now being restored. growing almonds and other valuable orchard crops behind the new setback levee.

25 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 26 The landowners in the local reclamation district will pay for maintenance of the setback levee. The Nature Conservancy’s Ryan Luster says local farmers became an amazing resource for the project, providing their expertise to help plant hundreds of acres of native trees—at an industrial scale—in the new floodplain.

On a much smaller scale, three private property owners along Codornices Creek in Berkeley restored a stretch of creek flowing through their yards in 2019, hiring a restoration firm to pull back the creek banks to give the creek room to move and create a floodplain, and planting hundreds of native plants to shade the creek’s waters for the threatened steelhead trout that live downstream. “We have always loved living on a creek, and we’ve always hated the concrete walls that stopped this section of creek from living up to its potential. We knew that if we restored the creek we could have willow trees and water striders, and maybe frogs and even fish someday,” says resident Juliet Lamont.

And in the upper Estuary, farmers are growing crops that feed migrating birds, nurturing willows and sycamores along streams and rivers traversing their land, and welcoming fish, birds and wildlife onto their property. In the North Delta, Russell van Loben Sels, whose family has farmed the Delta since 1876, grows minimum-till corn on about 70 acres next to the Stone Lakes National Wildlife Refuge, a practice that leaves about five Photo: Chessa Moreno percent of the kernels after harvest. “The kernels are all on top, sandhill cranes love it,” he says. “All they have to do is hop across the levee and into the field.” Before the refuge “We’re just caretakers of the land.” was established, he only saw a few cranes in his field; now he sees around 100. Other — Vintners Bruce Cakebread & Michael Honig Delta landowners, like fifth generation pear-grower Tim Neuharth, share their vision of a (latter pictured above in Napa River) sustainable Delta economy and environment through farm tours.

With floods, wildfires, algal blooms, and other impacts to water quality and the health of native species on the rise, working with farmers and private landowners to expand stewardship of the Estuary will become yet more urgent and important.

25 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 UPDATED INDICATORS 26 27 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 28 A look at three cutting-edge indicators of Estuary resilience developed since the 2015 State of EMERGING the Estuary Report. These emerging indicators offer vital insights into the frontiers of Estuary management based on science. In the future, these indicators will be refined with additional INDICATORS input from scientists and stakeholders to identify appropriate datasets, approaches, and benchmarks for meaningful and replicable tracking of these aspects of resilience.

Photo: Barbara Christianson

27 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 28 SUBSIDED LANDS EMERGING INDICATOR

Significant portions of previously tidal Land uses that keep the soils wet—like areas in the Bay and Delta have been managed ponds and wetlands—generally diked off and disconnected from tidal halt or limit subsidence, while land uses action to accommodate agriculture, that keep soils dry most of the year—like urban development, duck ponds, salt agriculture and urban development— ponds, and a diverse set of other land generally allow subsidence to continue. uses. The low elevation of these areas Changes in elevation can indicate places them at increased risk of flooding the degree to which key biophysical as sea level rises and intense rainstorms processes, such as sediment deposition become more common. In addition, and marsh accretion, are occurring. many of these former tidal marshes and These processes allow mudflats and tidal mudflats have subsided significantly marshes to maintain their elevations below sea level —in some areas as low as relative to the tide, and can mitigate 25 feet —as a result of sediment oxidation risk from storm surge, erosion, and sea and compaction. Subsidence and these level rise, thus contributing to shoreline accompanying processes exacerbate resilience. The 2015 State of the Estuary flood risk, contribute to greenhouse gas Report explored recent changes in emissions, and reduce the potential for sediment circulation and compared them restoring important intertidal habitat to historical conditions. In the years since, types. In addition, subsided lands in the an even more precise understanding Delta put the reliability of the state’s water of the interplay between elevation, supply at risk by increasing the likelihood subsidence, sea level, restoration, and of saltwater intrusion. sediment transport has been emerging.

Subsidence on Twitchell Island adjacent to the San Joaquin River.

Photo: Amber Manfree

29 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 30 INTERTIDA AND SUBTIDA ANDS In the Bay, less than 500 acres are 10 feet or more below MHHW. 500000

Land uses vary across the two regions 450000 in these low-lying areas. Agriculture 400000 dominates land use in the Delta’s 350000 disconnected areas, while managed 300000 wetlands, managed ponds, agriculture, and urban areas predominate in the Bay. 250000 About 75% of the Bay’s disconnected 200000

lands at or below tidal elevation host the 150000 types of wetlands or aquatic habitats 100000 that halt or limit subsidence (including unvegetated flats, marsh, seasonal 50000

wetlands, slope and depressional Area at Subtidal or Intertidal Elevation (Acres) 0 wetlands, managed ponds, and managed Bay Delta Connected to Disconnected from The map shows areas of the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta at wetlands); only 4.5% of the analogous the Tides the Tides intertidal or subtidal elevation, and whether they are connected to or disconnected from the lands in the Delta host these land uses. tides. Darker orange areas are tidally disconnected areas that have experienced more severe land subsidence. AND USE As land continues to subside, sea levels rise, and flooding from creeks and 180000 INDICATOR EARLY RESULTS groundwater becomes more prevalent, 160000 This emerging indicator summarizes Overall, the San Francisco Estuary greater intervention will be required to 140000 current elevations in the Bay and Delta encompasses 400,000 acres of land at maintain and protect farms, cities, and at a broad scale. It quantifies the amount intertidal or subtidal elevations that other land uses in areas below MHHW. 120000 of land below the average daily high tide are now disconnected from the tides. In some of these areas it could be more 100000 (“mean higher high water” or MHHW) This represents a larger area than the cost-effective (and beneficial for the that is diked off from tidal action, and acreage still influenced by tides every environment) to restore tidal habitats or 80000 to convert to habitat types that reduce categorizes land use and elevation within day. Approximately three quarters of 60000 these areas. This new analysis reflects the these lowlands behind levees exist in the the rate of subsidence. Many large- 40000 current state of the Estuary and does not Delta, while the Bay hosts the remaining scale restoration projects have already occurred in formerly disconnected areas incorporate planned restoration. quarter. The former suffers from more 20000

and others are underway. Area Disconnected from the Tides (Acres) severe subsidence than the latter, due to 0 the Delta’s deep historical peat soils. Future iterations of this analysis will DELTA BAY DELTA BAY gauge how well wetland restoration, as 0-10  >10  Below MHHW Below MHHW In the Delta, there are more than 160,000 well as other interventions like sediment acres of tidally disconnected land at augmentation, change elevations in the Terrestrial Wetlands, Aquatic Habitat Habitat Types Types, and Salt Ponds elevations of 10 feet or more below MHHW. region and enhance resilience. Agriculture Urban Development

29 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 30 SHORE RESILIENCE EMERGING INDICATOR

As the place where land and water meet, full influences of tide, freshwater flows, the Estuary’s shore is both an important sediment sources, and connectivity for area for people to live, work, and play and living organisms, they often return other a critical zone for resilience to climate significant benefits, like processing change. As climate change accelerates, nutrients for better water quality, impacts from sea-level rise, more intense sequestering carbon, supporting storms, and rising groundwater are endangered species, and fueling the food expected, incurring steep costs to protect web for fish and other wildlife. infrastructure, property, and people In contrast, the levees and seawalls in these areas. In looking to the future, that often protect developed and landowners and planners are considering agricultural areas are static features how the Estuary’s shores can be made that require ongoing maintenance and more resilient and how they can continue rebuilding. Where these land uses have to provide benefits for people and been placed over peat soils, the dry land nature, despite the expected climate- loses elevation, exacerbating the risks related perturbations. from sea-level rise. Halting and reducing Natural systems, like marshes and subsidence along the shore is a key factor other wetlands, can be resilient assets for resilience. Areas of semi-natural along the shore. Tidal marshes can ecosystems, like managed wetlands and gain elevation as sea level rises by ponds, provide many benefits, although accumulating sediment and plant matter. they tend not to be as resilient as fully Research shows that wetlands can natural systems. For example, diked provide effective shoreline protection wetlands can support wildlife and prevent during storm events and have relatively land subsidence to some degree, although low long-term maintenance costs. they cannot grow vertically at pace with sea A biologist coaxes California seablite to grow over dead branches, When these areas are subject to the level rise, the way some tidal marshes can. creating a tall arbor where birds and mice could escape high tides. Photo: Melissa Patten

31 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 32 SHORE RESILIENCE INDICATOR EARLY RESULTS 2% ag. 13% 23% other This emerging indicator categorizes the In the Bay, more than half of the shore managed habitat pond and types 21% managed Estuary’s heterogeneous shore to provide (54%) supports natural and managed wetland urban 41% marsh an example of how the potential for wetlands that can help impart resilience.

resilience could be tracked over time. The In the Delta, only 13% of the shore Bay categories are intended to demonstrate supports these ecosystems. Over time, 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% a spectrum of resilience from relatively this indicator could track management low (developed and agricultural land) actions to protect cities and agriculture Delta to intermediate (diked and managed using adaptation strategies that include 9% 56% 3% 10% 22% other wetlands) to relatively high (ecosystems nature-based shores. urban agriculture managed marsh habitat types wetland subject to key land-surface processes, like flooding and sediment dynamics). As this indicator is refined in future analyses, differences between the Bay and The shore zone was assessed via Delta are important to keep in mind. In the a three-step process: Bay, the shore zone is primarily located 1. Define and delineate on a map around the periphery, transitioning the land-water interface. upslope to terrestrial areas. In the Delta,

on the other hand, much of the shore is San Pablo Bay 2. Characterize land use within a Suisun Bay 100-meter shore zone landward along leveed channels bordering subsided of that line. islands. These differences mean that the types of benefits provided by shore 3. Classify each reach of the shore ecosystems and land uses vary across zone, based on land use and the Bay and the Delta. Thus, each region ecosystem type. may have different nature-based or Central Bay This indicator requires further multi-benefit shore types that are more San development to better capture important appropriate. In the Bay, for example, Francisco features of resilient shores. For example, suitable projects may include beach and levee data sets for the Delta might be oyster reef restoration to reduce erosion; Approx. Bay-Delta divide More resilient (marsh, managed wetlands and ponds) South Bay further refined and integrated with in the Delta, they might favor wetland Less resilient (urban, agriculture) shore type to allow a more nuanced restoration to halt subsidence and regain Resilience not categorized (other) categorization based on elevation and elevation. As novel shore features, such land-water connectivity. In addition, as ecotone levees and tule farming, are improvements in how the shoreline is piloted and mapped, this approach could delineated and categorized could be be expanded to track them. made with more spatial data and analysis and greater scientific input.

31 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 32 URBAN GREEN SPACE EMERGING INDICATOR

Open spaces within urban areas provide diverse benefits for wild animals, plants, and people that live nearby. Green spaces decrease urban runoff, improve downstream water quality, and provide habitat for native wildlife, while also benefiting human health and wellbeing. Urban parks improve local air quality and reduce local temperatures, contributing to lowered rates of childhood asthma and heat-related deaths in nearby areas. Exposure to urban parks is also associated with improved mood, increased physical activity, lower heart rate, and other human health benefits.

Park and population distributions together determine how equitably people benefit from parks. A park’s accessibility influences how frequently people visit it and how likely they are to reap health benefits from it. Parks should be vibrant and well used; however when people do not have much park space in their neighborhoods relative to the number of people, parks can become overcrowded, and facilities strained. The distribution of parks is inequitable in many cities in the US, as lower-income communities of color tend to have less access to parks than more affluent communities. This disparity has strong implications for disadvantaged The map shows the amount of nearby park area per person in urban areas around the Estuary. Park area per person is a ratio that takes into account communities, given the many health benefits the total acreage of green space within a half mile of one’s home and the number of people living within a half mile of that green space. Areas on the that regular access to nature provides. urban edge with sparse populations and expansive nearby parks exhibit the highest park area per person, whereas points in more populated areas and with fewer, smaller parks exhibit lower values.

33 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 34 URBAN GREEN SPACE INDICATOR This indicator highlights park access in public land varies from community disadvantaged communities to evaluate to community. In disadvantaged This emerging indicator calculates the area how accessible parks are for communities communities, parks tend to be smaller of park per person in urbanized locations most in need. While this indicator assesses with more potential users nearby than in across the Estuary. It incorporates two disparities in park benefits across the other areas. Residents of disadvantaged metrics: the area of park accessible within region, addressing the disparities is not as communities are therefore likely to a ten-minute walk (half mile) of one’s simple as constructing new parks. Without experience fewer of the mental, physical, home, and the number of people sharing concurrent policies to keep residents and social health benefits associated with that park area to approximate the relative RAN AREAS in their homes and ensure housing parks. The information discussed here is benefit individuals can derive from parks. OERALL affordability, park creation may exacerbate a prototype of what a full-fledged urban To understand disparities in the existing gentrification and displacement greening indicator could be in future State (91 f t per person) distribution of these benefits, park area trends. Addressing park access disparities of the Estuary Reports. Such an indicator per person in the region is compared to thus requires community-driven processes would allow us to track changes in public park area per person in disadvantaged and local and state policies that prevent access to green space over time, as cities communities, as identified by the these outcomes. add new parks and plazas, as communities California Environmental Protection grow and change, and as shorelines adapt Agency (CalEPA), the California EARLY RESULTS to rising sea levels. This indicator could be Department of Water Resources (DWR), Most urban areas around the San Francisco made more robust by including factors and the Metropolitan Transportation Estuary exceed the national average in such as park quality and routes of access, Commission (MTC). The CalEnviroScreen terms of park access. More than 75% of and by tracking whether increases in 3.0 (CalEPA) disadvantaged community the residents of many cities in the Bay and publicly accessible green space correlate DISADANTAGED designation is based on pollution, health, Delta live within a ten-minute walk of a with increases in gentrification and COMMNITIES and socioeconomic indicators, while park, which is 20% higher than the national displacement. Access for all will remain (61 f t per person) the DWR disadvantaged communities average. However, the amount of accessible a key factor in Estuary resilience. designation is based solely on income. The MTC communities of concern designation factors in income, race and several other 1 demographic factors. Together, these SCALE disadvantaged community designations include low-income neighborhoods, those If publicly accessible green space were with a majority of people of color, and divided among all people living within those that experience high pollution levels. a half mile of it, the median resident of the Estuary would have 91 ft2 of park. This analysis overlooks some complexities of park access, such as routes of access Meanwhile, the median resident of a and the relative quality of various parks. disadvantaged community in the region However, this approach—using public would have 61 ft2 of park (over 30% less space). data—can easily be tracked through time. Photo: Shira Bezalel

33 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 34 VOICES

Weaving Justice into Environmental Management

Photo: Karl Nielsen

Regional efforts that support the health The impacts of impaired estuarine One connection between Estuary and community concerns. This is more the case of the Estuary are enriched when voices health are not felt equally. Discriminatory community health is rising seas and with residents of frontline neighborhoods from communities are front and center. government policies implemented over flooding. Flooding can disproportionately that face multiple stressors on a daily basis. Planners and project managers work in decades have resulted in disproportionate affect low income communities of color “Most people are just thinking in the now, a complex landscape where restoration, environmental burdens on, and adverse along riverbanks or the Estuary’s shoreline. they barely know where they are going to water quality, and climate resilience health outcomes for, many low-income Housing policies and practices placed get their next meal from, let alone thinking intersect with racial and environmental communities of color. For years, these these communities in floodprone areas about [flooding or sea level rise] in 50 years,” justice, tribal sovereignty, public health and communities have urged a transformation alongside industrial uses. Underinvestment says Marquita Price, a planning officer for much more. Listening to and aligning with in the ways that scientists, policymakers, in these areas has since resulted in the East Oakland Collective. “We can at least underrepresented voices provides essential and managers envision a healthy estuary. inadequate infrastructure to handle storm supplement people’s basic services so they community-based insights into resilience. surges and heavy rainfall. Today, leadership and vision from can actually focus on how environmental or “Many of the same drivers that put the community advocates are beginning “The shoreline communities are now the climate change issues impact their lives.” health and function of San Francisco to shift the conversation, as they work frontline communities,” says Sheridan In Marin City, topography sets up the Bay so at-risk have also placed certain with organizations like the San Francisco Enomoto, a San Francisco Bayview Hunters community for flood problems. “It’s a communities at-risk,” says Josh Bradt, Estuary Partnership to ensure more Point community organizer. bowl,” says Terrie Green, a Co-Director an environmental planner with the San inclusive approaches to conservation and Future flooding and other climate impacts, of Shore Up Marin City, pointing out the Francisco Estuary Partnership. restoration around the Estuary. however, may not be the most pressing of steep mountain slopes on three sides

35 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 36 which direct runoff directly into the city’s on a contaminated two-well system for downtown, while on the fourth side decades, and residents have little recourse. Richardson Bay often overflows Highway 101. “It’s expensive,” Trujillo says, “You have to drive miles into the city just to get water.” Another connection between Estuary and Meanwhile, families in San Francisco’s community health is poor water quality, Hunters Point, like other communities near long recognized by regulators as a risk contaminated former industrial sites around to both humans and wildlife. Efforts to the Bay, still live surrounded by what city address these risks at the policy level, native and public affairs consultant Theo however, do not always reach the more Ellington refers to as a “toxic soup,” even critical Estuary residents, who experience after decades of promised cleanups. these threats from the dinner table to the tap to the backyard. Subsistence fishing Another nexus between environmental remains a common practice, and is often quality and social justice is proximity, the only option for many Estuary residents as well as access, to open space or with fish-based traditional diets. Yet many recreational opportunities. Research fish caught in Bay and Delta waters contain shows that access to nature helps people

unhealthy levels of mercury and PCBs. live healthier, happier lives. These benefits Photo: Nick Sebastian are distributed unequally across the Bay Drinking water can also be unhealthy in Area, with poorer communities— often of “The shoreline communities are now some Estuary communities. Families in color— continually facing under-investment the frontline communities.” the San Joaquin Valley, for example, find including but not limited to less green — Sheridan Enomoto, San Francisco Bayview Hunters Point community organizer themselves with well water laced with space (see p.33). Adding to this complexity, arsenic and nitrates from agricultural urban greening or creation of open space runoff. “Our water was poisoned,” says can drive up rent prices and displace the community advocate Hugo Trujillo. “Our very people for whom the park was created. children couldn’t eat the local vegetables.” Communities have consistently called for Matheny Tract in Tulare County has relied

35 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS 36 direct collaboration and engagement in Residents in frontline communities, As an EJ advocate and consultant, Mari Just as physical scientists measure the siting and development of green space with lived experience and long-term Rose Taruc has pressed agencies to ask restoration outcomes in the Estuary, Taruc so that benefits are developed for existing relationships in their neighborhoods, themselves if their programs are “culturally says it is crucial for regulatory bodies to residents, to improve the quality of their possess local knowledge that is crucial relevant.” If an agency wants to develop clarify goals and measure if they’re making neighborhoods, and prevent displacement. to developing sensitive solutions. inclusive programming, she says, it needs progress in a community. “That data is During the 2018 Resilient by Design Bay to tap into activities and practices that important for an agency to grade itself on, in As communities lead the way and Area Challenge, Marin City community exist in the communities it wants to terms of who’s at the table, and [the degree government agencies build skills to members and designers reimagined flood serve. “People of color might use the land of] that representation and investment.” partner and collaborate, solutions are risk management using permaculture differently than white folks,” she says. emerging that work to address historical techniques to slow, store, and divert Even as environmental justice has become patterns of injustice, and seek to benefit excess water flow. A key component José G. González, another EJ consultant, more of a priority, funding hasn’t kept up. all Estuary residents. of their work was building homegrown also cautions against making disadvantaged When longtime community organizers expertise through a permaculture design communities the “objects of programming.” consult on equity policy, they should course with local residents. The work He says “It’s not about empowering people, be seen as experts in their field, and be sought to show what resiliency planning it’s about helping them demonstrate the compensated accordingly, says Armenta. looks like “when community voices take power they already have.” González is the founder emeritus of Latinos Outdoors, Meaningful engagement comes from the lead,” said Pandora Thomas of the maintaining investments in relationships, design team. and he pushes agencies at the forefront of Estuary management to “support the whether an agency establishes an ongoing Public agencies throughout the state are community voices that are already there.” presence in the communities it serves or making efforts to understand and adopt pulls up more seats at the drawing table to environmental justice (EJ) principles, As it stands, Taruc thinks that too often include and fairly compensate community including centering community voices “the burden is placed on community leaders. In any case, prioritizing equity will to ensure historic patterns of injustice members to prove that there’s a problem.” likely feel disruptive to business as usual. become an issue of the past. Community That responsibility slows down the As Taruc reminds the agencies she consults advocates and EJ and social equity development of solutions, she says. for, that’s the point. “Structural racism is so pervasive that things feel like normal. What consultants are beginning to serve as One step González believes agencies can guides, translators and bridge builders happens when we interrupt that normalcy take to shift that burden is to incorporate and then measure [the results]?” to the process, connecting these “quantitative community feedback loops, disparate perspectives in an effort to like in an ecological system.” The goal “We can’t restore ecological health without create both a healthy and equitable is to tap into community feedback as a also restoring our social fabric,” says Letitia estuary. There are many lessons yet standard procedure. Grenier, Resilient Landscapes Program to learn about how to accomplish this Director at the San Francisco Estuary objective, but the following takeaways Longtime EJ advocate Phoenix Armenta Institute. “This is beyond what those of us provide a powerful glimpse into some believes it’s crucial to collect quantitative working on the Estuary’s ecosystem can do of the fundamental considerations and information on community health. “Data North Richmond community meeting. by ourselves, but we recognize they must requirements for this to work. is what moves government and people to Photo: Courtesy of SFEP be addressed in concert.” action,” she says.

37 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 EMERGING INDICATORS PB This report is one in a series of State of the Estuary Reports LOOKING to periodically update the Delta and Bay Area communities on AHEAD the health of our Estuary.

Photo: Nick Sebastian PURSUING RESILIENCE

The State of the Estuary Report is a recovered quickly, and others did not. trusted source of the most up-to-date, Some may have been too weakened by scientific information on the health of long-term stresses, while others may be the San Francisco Estuary’s wildlife and strengthened by continued ecosystem ecosystems. The report summarizes restoration activities on many levels. long-term datasets from both the Bay and The current datasets that underpin this Delta across a broad spectrum of health last period reflect a lot of variability. It will indicators. Methods used to compile this be important, therefore, to keep an eye powerful picture of how the Estuary is on these indicators to see if recent doing have been steadily fine-tuned by the trends continue. partners contributing to the report over more than a decade. Also during the update period concerns about environmental equity, This 2019 update covers an interesting regional affordability, and the safety of period in which the Estuary experienced disadvantaged communities in the path both severe drought conditions and a of sea level rise have come to the fore. The rebound to non-drought conditions. In partners contributing to this report intend the past, in response to similar shifts in to make stronger links to these issues and conditions, some species and landscapes voices in future updates. Photo: Nick Sebastian

39 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 LOOKING AHEAD 40 The San Francisco Estuary Partnership intends to continue periodic reporting on the status and trends presented in its 2015 and 2019 reports. Maintaining continuity with past analyses, and responding to new priorities and changing conditions, supports science-based management of the Estuary environment. The Partnership also believes that providing succinct, accessible results in a report format is useful to busy decisionmakers, and helps focus attention on an ever more complex picture of social-ecological resilience.

As people around the Bay and in the Delta work to save water, restore flows, sustain native species, and adapt to new extremes, our options are shrinking. What is commonplace now may not be sustainable in the future. Those of us engaged in reporting on, analyzing, and adapting to these challenges need to both stick it out and step it up. Resilience is not built or regained overnight. The task of deepening our understanding of the ecosystem we all live in, and rely on, reflects our shared sense of responsibility and hope for the future. Photo: Joe Galkowski

39 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 LOOKING AHEAD 40 ASSESSING THE STATE OF THE ESTUARY

This 2019 report provides an update to selected indicators from the 2015 State of the Estuary Report. The indicators revisited for this report were chosen because there was data available to provide an Estuary-wide update, and because they each represented one important attribute of Estuary health—water, habitat, wildlife, processes, and people. In combination, these indicators provide an updated snapshot of the overall health of the Estuary.

The three emerging indicators included in this report were developed as a step toward including resilience in a more significant way. The focus of these emerging indicators was decided, in part, by considering whether relevant, frequently updated datasets were available, and whether they could be analyzed in a cost-effective way in the future.

Decisions about what to include in this report were made by a Steering Committee of advisors from the San Francisco Estuary Partnership, the Delta Stewardship Council, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in collaboration with the San Francisco Estuary Institute.

More information about the 2015 Report and the Technical Appendices can be found at sfestuary.org/our-estuary/soter/ Photo: Nick Sebastian

41 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 LOOKING AHEAD 42 CREDITS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

SCIENCE COORDINATION Urban Water Use John Callaway, COVER PHOTOS Peter Vorster, Delta Stewardship Council April Robinson, Greg Reis, Left to right: Shira Bezalel; Don Yee; San Francisco Estuary Institute Shira Bezalel; Ken James The Bay Institute Luisa Valiela, SCIENCE LEAD U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Urban Green Space ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS J. Letitia Grenier, Matt Benjamin, COPYEDITING San Francisco Estuary Institute Sam Safran, Ariel Rubissow Okamoto, This report was funded by the San Erica Spotswood, Lisa Owens Viani Francisco Estuary Partnership and CONTRIBUTING SCIENTISTS San Francisco Estuary Institute the Delta Stewardship Council. Freshwater Flows VOICES sections draw from ESTUARY News Christina Swanson, Nature-based Shorelines Magazine stories with additional research We would like to thank the many people Natural Resources Defense Council Katie McKnight, by Aleta George and Audrey Mei Yi Brown. who contributed to the development Sam Safran, and review of this report, including: Beneficial Floods Julie Beagle, DESIGN Ruth Askevold, Josh Bradt, Gary Bobker, Christina Swanson, San Francisco Estuary Institute Natural Resources Defense Council Miguel A. Osorio, Layout Design Amanda Bohl, Josh Collins, Will Dominie, Elevation Metropolitan Transportation Commission Liz Duffy, Cristina Grosso, Kathy Hieb, Tidal Marsh Extent Matt Benjamin, Peter Beeler, Estuary Map Nahal Ipakchi, Jessica Law, Jeremy Lowe, Emily Clark, Sam Safran, Metropolitan Transportation Commission Darcie Luce, Ron Melcer, Thomas Mumley, San Francisco Estuary Institute Sam Safran, Heidi Nutters, Ellen Plane, Sandra Scoggin, San Francisco Estuary Institute PRINTER STEERING COMMITTEE Tim Smith, and Christina Toms. JT Litho, Fish Caitlin Sweeney, Oakland, California Christina Swanson, San Francisco Estuary Partnership Printed on Recycled Paper Natural Resources Defense Council Jon Rosenfield, Liz Juvera, ONLINE MATERIALS San Francisco Estuary Partnership The Bay Institute/Bay Keeper Tony Hale, Bill Bennett, Martina Koller, San Francisco Estuary Institute The Bay Institute Delta Stewardship Council

41 STATE OF THE ESTUARY 2019 UPDATE 2019 LOOKING AHEAD 42 STATUS AND TRENDS OF INDICATORS OF ECOSYSTEM HEALTH

THE ESTUARY SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER DELTA