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The Outbreak of the Syrian Civil War – Ethnic Division and Spill-Over Effects from Neighbouring Conflicts

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The Outbreak of the Syrian Civil War – Ethnic Division and Spill-Over Effects from Neighbouring Conflicts Prof. Blarel Caroline Ohlendorf Prof. van der Haer s2421615 Leiden University Department of Political Science Master Thesis The outbreak of the Syrian Civil War – Ethnic division and spill-over effects from neighbouring conflicts By Caroline Ohlendorf, s2421615 Submitted to Prof. Dr. Nicolas Blarel and Prof. Dr. Roos van der Haer Word count: 10 280 Leiden, 09th of January 2020 I Prof. Blarel Caroline Ohlendorf Prof. van der Haer s2421615 Abstract This master thesis examines the risk of civil war outbreak, by evaluating the interplay between ethnic division and spill-over effects of neighbouring conflicts. This is done through a case study of the Syrian Civil War and how its outbreak was influenced by the conflicts in the neighbouring countries Egypt and Tunisia. Power divisions along ethnic lines within Syria that had existed for decades have not led to a civil war outbreak before 2011. Consequently, the following research question arises: Was the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War influenced by spill-over effects of neighbouring countries? In this paper, I will explain how the ethnic divisions within Syria as potential factors contributing to a civil war outbreak were influenced by Egyptian and Tunisian political leaders. These spill-over effects are examined by analysing Twitter tweets of political actors in all three countries, focusing on the repeatedly used terms and hashtags chronologically, relating to events of the Arab Spring, first by Egyptian and Tunisian political actors and then by Syrian political actors. This study finds some evidence for the claim that spill-over effects from political actors in Egypt and Tunisia to Syrian political actors occurred in the context of the Arab Spring and the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War. II Prof. Blarel Caroline Ohlendorf Prof. van der Haer s2421615 Table of Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 2. Literature Review ..................................................................................................................... 4 2.1. Ethnic division and ethnic grievances as factors accounting for civil war outbreak ....... 4 2.2. Political Opportunity Structure as a driver for civil war outbreak ................................... 5 2.3. Transnational influence on civil war outbreak ................................................................. 6 3. Theoretical Framework ............................................................................................................ 7 3.1. Hypothesis 1: Ethnic grievances and unequal distribution of power along ethnic lines . 8 3.2. Hypothesis 2: The role of spill-over effects from neighbouring countries for the providence of new Political Opportunity Structures .................................................................... 9 3.3. Hypothesis 3: The influence of ethnicity across national borders ................................. 10 3.4. Main Argument .............................................................................................................. 10 4. Research Design ..................................................................................................................... 12 4.1. Method ........................................................................................................................... 12 4.2. Case Selection ................................................................................................................ 13 4.3. Data Collection .............................................................................................................. 14 4.4. Variables ........................................................................................................................ 15 5. Empirical Section ................................................................................................................... 18 5.1. Hypothesis 1: Ethnic grievances and unequal distribution of power along ethnic lines 18 5.2. Hypothesis 2: The role of spill-over effects from neighbouring countries for the providence of new Political Opportunity Structures .................................................................. 20 5.2.1. General explanation of the Data ................................................................................ 20 5.2.2. Analysis of the 11 hashtags and terms one by one .................................................... 21 5.2.3. Summary of results for hypothesis 2 ......................................................................... 32 5.3. Hypothesis 3: The influence of ethnicity across national borders ................................. 33 III Prof. Blarel Caroline Ohlendorf Prof. van der Haer s2421615 5.3.1. General explanation of the data ................................................................................. 33 5.3.2. Analysis of the terms and hashtags used by Abd-al-Mun'im Abu-al-Futuh (Egypt) and Moaz al-Khatib (Syria) ................................................................................................... 35 5.3.3. Results of hypothesis 3 .............................................................................................. 37 6. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 38 Appendix ...................................................................................................................................... VII References ................................................................................................................................... XIII Table of Figures Figure 1: Causal mechanisms of the outbreak of the civil war in Syria, Hypothesis 1, Hypothesis 2, Hypothesis 3. .............................................................................................................................. 11 Figure 3: Amount of usage of hashtag Egypt by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. ..... 22 Figure 4: Amount of usage of term Egypt by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. .......... 23 Figure 5: Amount of usage of hashtag Tunisia by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. .. 24 Figure 6: Amount of usage of hashtag USA by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. ...... 25 Figure 7: Amount of usage of term violence by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. ...... 26 Figure 8: Amount of usage of term Human Rights by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. ........................................................................................................................................................ 27 Figure 9: Amount of usage of term Mubarak by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. ..... 28 Figure 10: Amount of usage of term Revolt/Protest/Revolution by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. .................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 11: Amount of usage of term Freedom by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. ... 30 Figure 12: Amount of usage of term Change by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. ..... 31 Figure 13: Amount of usage of term Cooperation by political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. ........................................................................................................................................................ 32 Figure 14: Amount of use of hashtags/terms by Abd-al-Mun’im Abu-al-Futuh (Egypt) and Moaz al-Khatib (Syria). ........................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 15: Amount of use of the terms Palestine, Martyr and Revolt/Protest/Revolution by Abd- al-Mun’im Abu-al-Futuh. .............................................................................................................. 36 IV Prof. Blarel Caroline Ohlendorf Prof. van der Haer s2421615 Figure 16: Amount of use of terms Palestine, Martyr and Revolt/Protest/Revolution by Moaz al- Khatib. ............................................................................................................................................ 37 Figure 17: Overview of all hashtags and terms and how often they were used in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria between January 2011 and December 2012. ............................................................... VII Table of Tables Table 1: Ethnic Power Relations in Syria from 1970 to 2016 by the ERP Dataset Family 2019. 19 Table 2: List of all identified hashtags. .......................................................................................... IX Table 3: List of all Arabic terms with the English translation. ...................................................... XI Table 4: Overview of political actors in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia and their Twitter Handle. .... XII V Prof. Blarel Caroline Ohlendorf Prof. van der Haer s2421615 1. Introduction When the Syrian Civil War broke out in March 2011, to outside observers it appeared as if the opposing groups were motivated primarily by ethnic grievances and power divisions along ethnic lines. However, ethnic divisions and ethnic grievances within Syria had been present for decades due to Syrian society being composed of several ethnic groups – such as Sunni Arabs, Christians, Kurds, Druze, and Alawites – and the constant struggle for political power that has often led to political and economic discrimination of a whole ethnicity, especially
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