International Security Program March 2008

SOUTHEAST ASIA BULLETIN

Feature Article CSIS Southeast asia initiative Thai-U.S. Relations in the The CSIS Southeast Asia Initiative is a project of the International Security Pro- Regional Context gram, Asia Group. CSIS launched the ini- tiative in January 2008 to provide a venue Krit Garnjana-Goonchorn for greater focus, examination, and analysis Ambassador of the Kingdom of to the United States of Southeast Asian affairs within Washing- ...... ton’s policy community. The initiative will include regular roundtables, conferences, Any study of the bilateral relationship between the United States and Thai- studies, and forums to spotlight develop- land, or any country for that matter, should be viewed in the context of the ments in the region. CSIS will also seek to regional setting. For Thailand, that regional setting is Southeast Asia or, more partner with other interested organizations specifically, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). At the and individuals within and outside Wash- same time, account should be taken of circumstances within Thailand itself ington to maximize the flow of information, that have undoubtedly influenced the course of its relationship with the United analysis, and outreach on Southeast Asian States from time to time, just as changes in the United States’ world view, and affairs in the United States. especially its view of Southeast Asia, have played a part in the process. An important component of the initiative will be the monthly Southeast Asia Bul- The United States naturally has its own priorities with regard to its relations letin, which will provide a timely overview with the full range of countries reflected in its foreign policy. These priorities of key developments, events, and facts are necessarily driven by perceptions of its national interests, which in them- about the region, and offer a forum for selves are a function of diverse variables and changing circumstances, both short essays by official and unofficial com- domestic and foreign. During the Cold War and the age of East-West ideologi- mentators on regional affairs. cal differences, Southeast Asia ranked high in the priorities of U.S. foreign Derek Mitchell, director, Southeast Asia policy. The region was then in the front line of the Cold War. The Vietnam Initiative, and Brian Harding, research War consumed U.S. resources and demanded undivided attention, just as the associate, welcome your feedback on the Iraq War is doing in the Middle East today. Southeast Asia Bulletin at dmitchell@csis. org and [email protected] respectively. Thailand was a key factor in the region and a focus of U.S. attention at the time. Then the Cold War ended and priorities shifted. Conflicts in the Middle East, the scourge of terrorism, and post-9/11 trauma became the overwhelm- ing focus of U.S. foreign policy. In the recent past, U.S. interests and engage- Southeast Asia policy in focus ment in Southeast Asia have found themselves largely confined to the back burners. The White House announced on February 25 the nomination of Scot A. Marciel to be Given the recent developments in the geopolitical landscape in Asia, notably the first ambassador for ASEAN affairs. the rapid emergence of India in South Asia and the rise of China in East Asia, Marciel, currently deputy assistant secre- however, the United States might once again seek to reengage with the region, tary of state for Southeast Asia, will remain or risk being left tangled in a web of missed opportunities. A channel through deputy assistant secretary and concurrently which the United States can effortlessly revitalize its interaction with the re- serve as ambassador. The nomination is in gion is ASEAN, which has always remained open to U.S. engagement. It is a accordance with the U.S. Senate’s United States Ambassador for ASEAN Affairs Act region that has been broadly recognized for its vital strategic importance, due of September 2007, sponsored by Senator to its location and economic strength—actual and potential—and ASEAN is Richard Lugar, which called for an ambas- well placed to forge a bridge among the emerging powers in the region and a sador for ASEAN affairs to be named. link between the two oceans. (continued on pg 2)

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With the recent completion of the ASEAN Charter, stipu- tunity to reinvigorate the partnership. Having overcome a lating broader and deeper integration, ASEAN has come of year-long, painstaking process of rebuilding democracy, age and is eager to exert its due role in regional affairs and, Thailand has unquestionably demonstrated its commitment where appropriate, beyond. For the United States, ASEAN to democratic rule. The United States for its part should use presents a mechanism through which it can play a part as a this opportunity to reaffirm its commitment of friendship and driving force for peace and dynamic change in the region. to reengage itself fully to cooperate with Thailand. It should Even here, there is hardly a need to cast our sights beyond also look forward to strengthening this relationship, not only working toward fuller realization of the potential of the ex- with Thailand, but also with the region as a whole. There is isting mechanisms, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and much room for further cooperation with ASEAN in trade, participation in the new and more inclusive East Asia Dia- education, science and technology, culture, etc., and for the logue, which has ASEAN at its core. United States to establish a firm foothold in the region. As a key player in ASEAN, and a staunch ally of the United As the oldest friend of the United States in Asia, Thailand States, Thailand stands as a natural partner to strengthen U.S. values our affinity and alliance, and is committed to a long- engagement with the region. Thailand has always been at the term, mutually beneficial relationship. However, as a coun- center of ASEAN’s development and is a positive force in the try caught up in a fast-changing geopolitical landscape, process of change and development in the region. There was Thailand, as has historically always been the case, must re- hardly ever a time that Thailand was left out of the picture on main open to engagement and interaction with a spectrum major developments. ASEAN itself was born 40 years ago in of countries. Where the United States fits in that spectrum Thailand. In the regional context, Thailand has always played depends on its own actions. These actions should, how- an instrumental role in preserving security and stability in the ever, not merely be a gesture of goodwill, but they must region, as well as promoting economic growth, especially come from the realization—or indeed, cold strategic calcu- among the mainland countries of ASEAN. Thailand has also lation—of the United States’ own interests in Thailand and been a strong proponent for freedom and democracy. On the Southeast Asia. security side, Thailand has been an active partner with the 1 United States and the international community in the wars on This reference is to , whose essay on the terrorism, narcotics, and human trafficking. Later this year, future of ASEAN was featured in the inaugural issue of Thailand will be assuming the chairmanship of ASEAN from this newsletter last month. His essay is available here: Singapore, and it is a happy coincidence that a consummate https://www.csis.org/component/option,com¬¬_csis_pubs/ diplomat from Thailand has recently assumed the position of task,view/id,4327/type,3/ the new ASEAN secretary-general.1 Each year Thailand also hosts the Cobra Gold exercise, which has become a showcase of joint military strength in Southeast Asia Timeline of Events Asia. It is attended each year by more and more countries in Feb. 5, 2008: Nuon Chea, brother No. 2 under Pol Pot’s the region, including China and Japan. The exercise, in which Khmer Rouge, appears in court for the first time. He is the United States plays a leading role, reflects the evolving the most senior surviving member of the regime. nature of relationships in the region and has, in turn, adapted itself to remain relevant to present day changes. Feb. 5, 2008: The Philippine Parliament ousts its speak- er, Jose de Venecia, after he accuses President Gloria Another example where Thailand enabled positive U.S. en- Arroyo and her family of corruption. gagement in the region was in the aftermath of the tsunami Feb. 5, 2008: The United States unveils a new round of that struck Thailand and the surrounding coastal countries sanctions against Burma, this time targeting seven new at the end of 2004. Thailand provided facilities at the U- individuals and their companies. See http://www.treas. Tapao Naval Base for the United States to stage rescue and gov/press/releases/hp807.htm. relief operations in the affected areas. This far-reaching ef- fort, achieved by the United States through its partnership Feb. 7, 2008: A new Australia-Indonesia security pact, with Thailand, helped turn around the perceived tide of anti- known as the Lombok Treaty, comes into force. It re- American sentiment in Muslim countries of Southeast Asia. places a prior treaty annulled by Indonesia after Australia supported East Timor’s independence. The Treaty covers As Thailand and the United States celebrate the 175th an- 10 areas including cooperation on defense, counterter- niversary of bilateral relations this year, it is a good oppor-

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rorism, maritime security, emergency preparedness, and Feb. 20, 2008: Some 100 members of a hard-line Islamic transnational crime. A key stipulation is that Australia group protest peacefully outside the Danish embassy in will not support separatist causes in Indonesia. Jakarta after a cartoon of the Prophet Muhammad reap- peared the previous week. Feb. 7, 2008: The United States resumes military assis- tance programs with Thailand, including foreign military Feb. 25, 2008: During a visit to Jakarta, U.S. defense financing, international military education and training secretary Robert Gates promises to help Indonesia over- (IMET), and peacekeeping operations. This assistance haul its military, saying the United States is ready to help had been suspended since Thailand’s September 2006 provide airlift and other maritime capabilities that the coup, though aid for counterterrorism, proliferation of country needs. He also acknowledges Indonesia’s place weapons of mass destruction, and joint military exer- as a leader in the region and agrees to supply Jakarta cises continued. with F-16 fighter jets. Secretary Gates’s Jakarta speech can be found at http://www.defenselink.mil/speeches/ Feb. 11, 2008: An Indonesian court sentences the former speech.aspx?speechid=1218. director of Garuda Indonesia to 12 months in prison for his part in the murder of Munir Said Thalib, a human rights Feb. 25, 2008: The U.S. Department of the Treasury activist, aboard a Garuda flight in September 2004. announced further economic sanctions against two key financial operatives of the Burmese regime, their kin and Feb. 11, 2008: A rebel militia attempts to assassinate various companies. See http://www.treas.gov/press/re- Timor Leste’s president Jose Ramos Horta and prime leases/hp837.htm. minister Xanana Gusmao. Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd announces an additional 190 Australian Feb. 25, 2008: The U.S. Department of State and the troops will be sent to the country to provide additional U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) security (see Major Regional Developments). announce a multisector development assistance program to help ASEAN reach its goal of establishing a peaceful, Feb. 12, 2008: Burma’s top general, Than Shwe, un- prosperous, and stable community of nations—the ASE- veils plans to hold a referendum on a new constitution AN Community—by 2015. The U.S. government’s com- in May followed by “democratic elections” in 2010 (see mitment, which will run for eight years to match ASE- Major Regional Developments). AN’s time frame for achieving the ASEAN Community, Feb. 13, 2008: Malaysian prime minister Abdullah was funded at $7 million in 2007. For further details of the Ahmad Badawi dissolves parliament more than a year assistance package, see http://www.aseansec.org/21407.htm. ahead of schedule, paving the way for a general election Feb. 25, 2008: The White House announces the nom- in March (see Major Regional Developments). ination of Scot A. Marciel as the first ambassador for Feb. 14, 2008: Philippine security officials announce ASEAN affairs. Marciel, currently deputy assistant sec- they have uncovered a plot by Islamist militants linked retary of state for Southeast Asia, will remain deputy as- to the al Qaeda network to assassinate President Gloria sistant secretary and concurrently serve as ambassador Arroyo and target foreign embassies. Critics claim that (see U.S. Southeast Asia Policy in Focus). the announcement is fabricated in an attempt to dissuade Feb. 28, 2008: The leader of the Islamist militant group potential protestors from attending an anti-Arroyo rally Jemaah Islamiyah in Singapore, Mas Selamat Kastari, the next day. escapes from prison, provoking a massive manhunt by Feb. 15, 2008: An estimated 10,000 people, including Singaporean authorities. Kastari, accused of planning left-wing and Roman Catholic Church–backed groups, various terrorist attacks, including a planned attempt to protest in Manila to demand the resignation of Philip- hijack and crash a plane into Changi airport in 2001, had pine president Gloria Arroyo. been in detention since 2006 under Singapore’s Internal Security Act after being extradited from Indonesia. Feb. 15, 2008: Brunei Darussalam ratifies the Associa- tion of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Charter, be- Feb. 28, 2008: Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shi- coming the second nation to do so, after Singapore. nawatra returns to Thailand, whereupon he is immediately arrested and taken to court to face charges of corruption and Feb. 20, 2008: Malaysia and Laos ratify the ASEAN abuse of power relating to his time in office. He is granted Charter, bringing the total number of ratifications to four. bail and told not to leave Thailand without permission.

center for strategic and international studies | international security bulletin 4 | Southeast Asia Bulletin

MAJOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS ...... Déjà Vu as Thailand’s New Political Attempted Assassination of Timor Leste’s Leadership Landscape Takes Shape The democratically elected leaders of Timor Leste (for- Thailand’s new coalition government signaled a return to merly East Timor) survived coordinated assassination the politics and policies of ousted former prime minister attempts by rebels in the early morning of February 11. . Thailand’s new cabinet, which was President José Ramos Horta was shot and badly wounded. sworn in on February 7, includes many senior Thaksin Rebel leader Alfredo Reinado was killed in the ensuing loyalists, including Noppadon Pattama, Thaksin’s former gun battle with the president’s guards. In a separate but legal adviser who became foreign minister, and Surapong related incident, Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão escaped Suebwonglee, Thaksin’s former spokesman, who has an ambush while in his car. The attacks were the culmi- assumed the finance portfolio. Prime Minister Samak nation of a protracted dispute between the government Sundaravej will concurrently serve as defense minister. and Reinado’s small militia, which had aligned itself with Former centerpieces of Thaksin’s populist agenda also aggrieved former soldiers from the western part of the look set to be revived, including cheap health care for the state who were sacked by the government in 2006, which poor, debt suspension for farmers, and the controversial sparked widespread violence and unrest. The government “war on drugs,” which previously led to a massive and had been in negotiations with Reinado, who had fled to brutal police crackdown on the country’s rampant meth- the hills, shortly before these latest attacks. In a show amphetamines industry. Prime Minister Samak also an- of support for its fledgling neighbor, Australia commit- nounced ambitious plans for five megaprojects, including ted 190 extra soldiers and police, adding to its already a controversial project to divert water from the Mekong 800-strong force of peacekeeping personnel in the coun- River to feed the water-starved northeast and additional try. To the surprise of many, the attacks did not spark mass transit for . The month ended with Thak- further violence in the country, which remains under a sin’s dramatic return to Thailand, immediate detainment state of emergency. President Ramos Horta is recovering by civil police authorities, and release on bail. in a hospital in Darwin, Australia. Burmese Junta Calls for Constitutional Malaysian Prime Minister Badawi Dissolves Referendum and New Election Parliament, Sets March Elections On February 9, Burma’s State Peace and Development On February 13, Malaysian prime minister Abdullah Ah- Council, the ruling junta, announced that it would hold mad Badawi dissolved Parliament, nearly a year ahead a referendum on a new constitution in May and conduct of schedule, leading the way for elections on March 8. a general election in 2010. Although the announcement The move comes at a time of relatively weak support for suggests progress toward Burmese democracy, the demo- the Badawi government but suggests that his administra- cratic opposition and ethnic minority groups of the coun- tion expects a weakening economy to further erode con- try were not consulted either during the drafting of the fidence in the government in coming months. The move proposed constitution or concerning the decision to hold also prevents prominent opposition leader Anwar Ibra- new elections. The elections would be the first since 1990, him from contesting the election as Malaysian law bars when the junta ignored the results of a landslide victory citizens from elected office for five years after serving a for the democratic National League for Democracy party prison sentence. (For Anwar this would be April 2008: over the junta’s party. Democracy leader Aung San Suu Anwar’s imprisonment ended in 2004, but his sentence Kyi is barred from the proposed elections through a tar- for corruption ended in April 2003 and other charges were geted constitutional provision excluding from office any- later overturned.) Badawi’s Barisan Nasional (National one married to a foreign national or whose children hold Front) coalition, in power since Malaysia’s independence foreign passports. The constitution reportedly will also in 1956, will retain its majority, but with a smaller num- guarantee 25 percent of parliamentary seats to the mili- ber of seats due to the expected difficulty of keeping es- tary and allow the military at will to assume emergency tranged ethnic Indians in the coalition, alienation among powers. State-run media outlets in Burma have hailed the some ethnic Chinese over perceived corruption within the proposed constitution and election as progress toward leadership of the pro-government Malaysian Chinese As- “disciplined democracy.” Official reaction from the re- sociation, and rising discontent over Badawi’s leadership gion toward Burma’s move was mixed, while the United among followers of the dominant United Malays National States dismissed the elections outright as a “sham.” Organization (UMNO) party.

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Southeast Asia Miscellaneous Facts Other Projects/Reports from the International Security ▪ Of Indonesia’s approximately 240 million people, Program’s Asia Group about 124 million live on Java, although the island constitutes only 7 percent of Indonesia’s landmass. Assessing Contemporary China: The China Balance Sheet ▪ In addition to being the world’s largest Muslim na- http://www.csis.org/isp/chinabalancesheet/ tion, Indonesia is home to almost 19 million Chris- tians, the third most in East Asia after the Philippines U.S.-China Dialogue on Internal Developments and China. in North Korea http://www.csis.org/isp/dialoguenorthkorea/ ▪ There are some 43 million mobile phone users in the Philippines, and only 4.6 million internet users. U.S.-China Strategic Nuclear Dynamics http://www.csis.org/isp/nucleardynamics/ ▪ Cambodia is an extremely young country with 34 percent of its population aged 14 years or younger and The K-Factor: Korean-Americans Attitudes only 3.6 percent aged 65 years or over. Toward and Impact on U.S.-Korea Policy http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_ ▪ The government of Laos has reportedly cofinanced progj/task,view/id,1015/ the country’s first feature film in nearly 20 years, a ro- mantic drama titled Good Morning, Luang Prabang, Congressional Attitudes and the Future of the in reference to the nation’s ancient capital. U.S.-ROK Alliance http://www.csis.org/isp/rok/ ▪ Extending about 1,000 miles north to south, Vietnam is only 30 miles wide at its narrowest point. Bridging Strategic Asia: The Rise of India in East Asia and the Implications for the U.S.- Japan Alliance http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_ progj/task,view/id,1004/ southeast asia events at csis February Issue of the Southeast Asia Bulletin http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/080207_sea_bulletin_1.pdf On February 8, 2008, CSIS hosted Hasyim Muzadi, chairman of Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia’s largest sociocultural Muslim organization. International Security Program’s Asia Group

Derek Mitchell, Senior Fellow and Director EVENTS to watch for IN march Bonnie Glaser, Senior Associate and Consultant Malaysia will hold general elections on March 8. Brian Harding, Research Associate

In early March, the UN envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Alyson Slack, Research Associate Gambari, will make his third visit to the country since Lee Ridley, Research Assistant/Project Coordinator September. Alexis Rado, Intern Admiral Timothy J. Keating, Commander, U.S. Pacific Fergus Green, Intern Command, will testify before the Senate Armed Ser- vices Committee on March 11 and before the House Kingston Kwek, Intern Armed Services Committee on an unconfirmed date. Liana Lim Hinch, Intern

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