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Verdsettelse Av SAS AB Verdsettelse av SAS AB Bacheloroppgave EK208E – Regnskap og økonomistyring Martin Andersen og Steffen Evjen Knudsen 1 Forside Abstract The main purpose of this study is to conduct a valuation of the Scandinavian airliner SAS AB. At the end of our valuation, we compared our results with the stock price and valuation published on the Stockholm stock exchange. They are also secondary listed on the Oslo stock exchange and the Copenhagen stock exchange. SAS AB is the leading airline in Scandinavia, but suffer great competition today, which they also have done for some time now. The SAS group includes the brands Scandinavian Airlines, Widerøe and Blue1. They are also a member of the world’s leading airline alliance, Star Alliance. We have conducted our valuation by taking a basis in the CAPM, WACC and DCF model. To support our valuation, we based the models above, on a cash flow budget. The cash flow budget is made on the basis of a strategic analysis, as well as a financial analysis in order to get a fair estimate on our predicted cash flows. When we discounted our predicted cash flows, with the calculated required rate of return, we ended up with an equity value of SEK 2.122.050.000. This is fairly close to the listed value of our valuation date; which is the 14th of May. The 14th of May the equity value listed on the Stockholm stock exchange was SEK 2.319.450.000. That means that we have come up with a value that is 8, 6 % down from the listed value. We then divided the equity value with the number of shares to find a share value of SEK 6,45. I Forord Den treårige bachelorutdanningen i økonomi og ledelse innebærer at vi må skrive en bacheloroppgave. Den har vi skrevet under våren 2012. Vår oppgave er skrevet innenfor profileringen ”Regnskap og Økonomistyring” og har et omfang på 15 studiepoeng. Oppgaven er en verdsettelse av Scandinavian Airlines AB. Temaet ble verdsettelse, da vi finner verdsettelse å være det mest interessante temaet innenfor fagområdet. SAS ble valgt som verdsettelsesobjekt, da vi synes det ville være interessant å se på verdien av en gammel kjempe, som har slitt litt de siste årene. Videre har også fly vært et interessefelt gjennom oppveksten. Oppgaven har til tider gitt oss svært frustrerende stunder og utfordringer har tidvis føltes nærmest uoverkommelige. Vi føler likevel at vi har kommet gjennom med hodet over vannet. Vi vil rette en stor takk til vår veileder Universitetslektor Einar Torrisen, for god oppfølging, gode samtaler og en dør som alltid sto åpen. En stor takk rettes også til Therese Nilsen med andre for jobben som korrekturlesere. Til slutt ønsker vi å rette en stor takk til hverandre for et godt gjennomført samarbeid, som har ført til et produkt som vi begge er stolte av. Handelshøgskolen i Bodø, ved Universitet i Nordland, 25. mai 2012. ____________________ ____________________ Martin Andersen Steffen Evjen Knudsen II Sammendrag Denne oppgaven er basert på problemstillingen: “Hva er verdien av det børsnoterte selskapet SAS AB?” Den 14. mai 2012 var SAS AB notert på Stockholm stock exchange med en aksjekurs på SEK 7,05. Det gir en selskapsverdi på 2 319 450 000 sek. Vi har gjennomført strategiske analyser og analyser av nøkkeltall, for å prøve å forstå hva som skaper verdi i selskapet. Vi har tatt den kunnskapen vi fikk gjennom analysene til anvendelse, sammen med ulike verdsettelsesmodeller for å finne det vi mener er ”riktig” selskapsverdi. Vi har valgt å basere vår verdsettelse hovedsakelig på DCF-modellen. For å kunne benytte denne modellen har vi regnet oss frem til et avkastningskrav på egenkapitalen og et avkastningskrav på totalkapitalen. Vi har benyttet CAPM-modellen for å komme frem til et avkastningskrav til egenkapitalen på 6, 7663 %. Videre har vi benyttet oss av WACC- modellen for å fastsette avkastningskravet til totalkapitalen som vi fant å være 4,57 %. Avkastningskravet til totalkapitalen ble så brukt til å neddiskontere de fremtidige kontantstrømmene vi fant ved å sette opp et fremtidsregnskap. Ved å neddiskontere de fremtidige kontantstrømmene kom vi frem til at selskapet på verdsettelsesdatoen 14. mai i være øyne er verdt 6,45 sek. Det gir en selskapsverdi på SEK 2 122 050 000. Vi kan da se at vi har kommet frem til en verdi som ligger på 91,4 % av børskursen 14. mai. Det betyr en nedside på 8,6 %. Denne verdien har vi valgt å støtte opp med en sensitivitets analyse og en rimelighetsvurdering ved hjelp av flere ulike multiplikatormodeller. Dog støtter vi synet av at verdsettelse ikke er noen eksakt vitenskap, i tillegg er vår verdsettelse basert på store mengder subjektive antakelser. Dette gjør at vi ikke vil komme med noen kjøps- eller salgsanbefaling basert på denne oppgaven. III Innholdsfortegnelse 1 Innledning til Verdsettelse av SAS AB .............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Valg av oppgave ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problemstilling ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Hensikt ..................................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Oppgavens oppbygning ........................................................................................................... 2 2 Scandinavian Airlines AB ................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Innledning ................................................................................................................................ 4 2.1.1 Kursutvikling .................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Historie .................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Visjon, Mål og Strategi ............................................................................................................. 7 2.4 Eierforhold ............................................................................................................................... 7 2.5 Konsernstruktur ....................................................................................................................... 8 2.6 Star Alliance ............................................................................................................................. 9 3 Metode .......................................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Innledning .............................................................................................................................. 11 3.2 Forberedelse .......................................................................................................................... 11 3.3 Forskningsspørsmål ............................................................................................................... 12 3.4 Forskningsdesign ................................................................................................................... 12 3.4.1 Kvalitativt design ........................................................................................................... 12 3.4.2 Kvantitativt design ......................................................................................................... 13 3.5 Datainnsamling ...................................................................................................................... 14 3.6 Data analyse .......................................................................................................................... 14 3.7 Rapportering .......................................................................................................................... 15 3.8 Reliabilitet.............................................................................................................................. 15 3.9 Validitet ................................................................................................................................. 15 3.10 Feilkilder ................................................................................................................................ 16 4 Ulike verdsettelsesmodeller .......................................................................................................... 17 4.1 Innledning .............................................................................................................................. 17 4.2 Balansebaserte metoder ....................................................................................................... 18 4.2.1 Substansverdi/verdijustert egenkapital ........................................................................ 18 4.2.2 Likvidasjonsverdi ........................................................................................................... 19 4.2.3 Matematisk verdi/bokført egenkapital ......................................................................... 20 IV 4.3 Inntjeningsbaserte metoder .................................................................................................. 20 4.3.1 Dividendemodeller ........................................................................................................ 20 4.3.2 Kontantstrømbaserte modeller ....................................................................................
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