GO Regional Express Rail Initial Business Case Page I
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Executive Summary • Scenario 2: Two-Way All-Day – Enhanced diesel service on all corridors with no electrification. This Initial Business Case (IBC) was developed over a 12-month period, starting in April 2014 by a team of Metrolinx staff and consultants. It is the • Scenario 3: 10-Year Plan – Frequent service on most inner corridors result of a collaborative effort including many departments and individuals with limited electrification. within Metrolinx and the Ontario Ministry of Transportation (MTO). • Scenario 4: Full Build (Beyond 10-Year Plan) – Frequent service on This IBC is a response to the commitment made by the Province of Ontario all inner corridors with full electrification. in 2014 to implement a Regional Express Rail (RER) over a 10-year • Scenario 5: 10-Year Plan Optimized – Frequent service on most period. This document provides the evidence and business case to support inner corridors with significant electrification will be achieved under this this commitment, as well as developing the service concept and providing scenario. input to the phasing plan. The IBC touches on virtually every aspect of the GO rail system and its conversion from a diesel-powered commuter railway to an electric regional express system that will provide faster, more frequent and all-day services across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). In order to develop the appropriate solution for the GTHA at this early stage of program, five scenarios were developed and analyzed. The evaluation of all five scenarios is presented within this IBC. While the recommended RER program aligns most closely with Scenario 5, it is informed by multiple considerations from a variety of scenarios to obtain an optimal result. Further analysis of infrastructure, systems, service design and other considerations is required over the life of the program. This analysis will result in additional modifications as appropriate. The scenarios considered are as follows: • Scenario 1: Do Minimum – Peak-focused limited capital with no electrification. This scenario becomes the base scenario against which the others are measured to determine relative performance. GO Regional Express Rail Initial Business Case Page i For each scenario, the service pattern, rolling stock, and required infrastructure are defined, with estimates of ridership, environmental considerations and impacts, and operating and capital costs. This information is used to calculate the financial and economic benefits. Best practices are applied in the development of alternative analyses and refinement of the program to achieve best possible value for resources invested. The RER Business Case Model (BCM) was developed specifically for this project to determine the best option for implementing RER across the whole GO Transit rail system as well as the impacts for each corridor. This summary presents the key findings of a detailed evaluation of the RER project. It demonstrates how the recommended scenario was arrived at while allowing for further refinement to achieve even greater value. The financial and economic results presented in this IBC are derived from the BCM’s service plans, which identify train frequency, rolling stock type and train size, and the infrastructure required to support the plan. These plans were developed in order to determine capital and operating costs in each scenario. The costs are based on GO’s recent construction and operating experience. Numerous assumptions that inform the calculations can be found in Appendix C. Some of the key assumptions in the BCM that impact the results are shown in Table 1. GO Regional Express Rail Initial Business Case Page ii Table 1: Key Economic, Cost and Policy Assumptions Included There is a compelling strategic case for RER. Evidence presented here in the RER Business Case Model (BCM) indicates that RER would be an enhanced “backbone” of the regional Item Assumption transit system, by accommodating more medium and longer distance trips in the GTHA. Early research indicates that, together with some other key Project Life 60 years elements of the Regional Transportation Plan (The Big Move), such as Discount Rate 3.5% per year real discount rate integration with local transit and fare integration, there is the potential for Implementation All new services commence 20241 further increased ridership, utilization of the system, and benefits to 2.3% per year on average (varies by route) to residents and businesses of the region. RER will attract substantial traffic Underlying 2044. In all scenarios, peak capacity is added to Demand Growth off the GTHA’s highway and road system, and enable continued economic maintain current average train loads growth, not just in downtown Toronto but at nodes across the region. Some No changes to 2015 fare structures; no real Fares increase in fares additional benefits that have not been quantified but are described Other charges are assumed for modelling qualitatively, such as reduced subway crowding and improved productivity, purposes – these are represented by a potential Other Charges are discussed in this document. RER will encourage more efficient urban parking charge implemented before the end of the RER program development, and make it feasible to travel across the region for work, No real increase in the costs of train crew labour, Costs study, or play without a car. diesel fuel or electricity Auto Operating $0.63 per km, increasing at 0.7% per year to 2044 The five scenarios evaluated in this IBC represent different levels of capital Costs investment3. The recommended RER program possesses a strong EA, Engineering 15% of base capital costs and Design Financial Case (Figure 1) and Economic Case (Figure 2). Contingency - 50% of base capital costs Infrastructure Productivity and resource factor - 25% of base The program is deliverable over the 10-year period, and can be reliably (Corridors) capital costs and successfully operated in the years following, which indicates a strong Infrastructure 2 Contingency - 50% of base capital costs Deliverability and Operations Case. (System Wide) For an extensive list of BCM assumptions see Appendix C. For definition of The five scenarios cover a wide range of investment options, including Productivity and Resource Factor see Appendix A. different service solutions on different corridors as follows: 1 For the purposes of this IBC, 2024 has been modelled as the start date of service. It is recognized that service will in fact be introduced over several years, in some cases resulting in services being introduced 3 earlier. This is a reasonable working assumption for the purpose of analysis and where services are Figures are Net Present Values discounted to January 1, 2015, in 2014 prices. They exclude inflation and introduced earlier than 2024, benefits will generally be greater. Therefore these are conservative working financing charges. Figures are totals including works totalling $2 billion previously committed by the assumptions. Exact phasing and timing of implementation still TBD. Province. Figures include rolling stock and other expenditures required for traffic growth over the period to 2 In most cases see appendices for exact information and costing information. In all cases, capital cost 2074, but do not include inflation. Thus, actual capital expenditures for the 10-year project period will be contingencies are between 10% and 50%. different. GO Regional Express Rail Initial Business Case Page iii Scenario 1 is the Do Minimum (DM) option used to evaluate all other Airport. This scenario and the resulting recommended RER program has scenarios on an incremental basis. Metrolinx would need to invest been defined to maximize return on investment while mitigating risks. approximately $5 billion mostly on trains, car parking, and safety systems Depending on resolving various challenges, it can be delivered over 10 to expand peak capacity to keep pace with growing demand, but without years for approximately $13.5 billion. It does not preclude, but rather any expansion of all-day services. This scenario represents a lower level of prepares for, services to Milton and Kitchener to be eventually electrified investment and system improvement. and frequent all-day services introduced when agreement is reached on co-existence of GO and freight on these privately-owned corridors. Scenario 2 is Two-Way All-Day (2WAD) service, which expands hourly 2WAD services to Hamilton, Meadowvale, Kitchener, Barrie, Richmond Hill Scenario 5 (10-Year Plan Optimized) was developed in early 2015 as a and Unionville. Metrolinx would invest approximately $10 billion, with most solution that optimized the results from an analysis of scenarios one to of the additional expenditure paying for double-tracking and associated four. It shows the optimal scenario that maximizes benefits while meeting infrastructure improvements. all four business case tests (Strategic, Financial, Economic and Deliverability). Scenario 3 is the 10-Year Plan, i.e. the service and infrastructure that could be provided by 2024 within a $12 billion budget. GO would operate Under the recommended RER program, annual ridership will increase by all-day services every 15 minutes to Aldershot, Mt. Pleasant, Aurora, two and a half times between the years 2014 and 2029 while annual Unionville and Oshawa. Faster electric trains would replace diesels on the operating costs will increase by much less than two and half times. GO Lakeshore corridor between Oshawa and Aldershot. Other routes would already recovers approximately