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A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of Warwick Permanent WRAP URL: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106953/ Copyright and reuse: This thesis is made available online and is protected by original copyright. Please scroll down to view the document itself. Please refer to the repository record for this item for information to help you to cite it. Our policy information is available from the repository home page. For more information, please contact the WRAP Team at: [email protected] warwick.ac.uk/lib-publications Japan and East Asian Monetary Regionalism: Towards a Proactive Leadership Role? By Shigeko Hayashi A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics and International Studies University of Warwick Department of Politics and International Studies August 2002 TABLE OF CONTENTS Abbreviations iv Japanese words v* List of tables vii Acknowledgements viii Declaration ix Abstract x Chapter 1 Introduction 1 The review of literature on Japanese foreign policy 4 Hypotheses 13 Analytical framework 17 Research methods 28 Chapter outline 32 Original contributions 33 Chapter 2 Historical Review of Japan’s East Asian Policy in the Postwar Period 36 1945- to th e 1960s 37 The 1970s 56 Since the 1980s 66 Chapter 3 The Washington Consensus versus the Japanese Approach and Implications for the East Asian Financial Crisis 101 Policy debates on development and transition between Japan and Washington 102 The development of the arguments between Japan and the Washington Consensus 115 The divergence of opinion on the causes of the East Asian financial crisis in 1997 127 Chapter 4 Japanese Policies Towards the East Asian Financial Crisis 135 The Thai crisis 135 The AMF proposal - the origin and initial discussions 139 The politics surrounding the AMF 143 What made Japan interested in a regional financial mechanism? 148 The failure of the AMF proposal and its replacement with the Manila Framework 156 The AMF proposal and the implications for Japan's policy style 159 The spread of the crisis to Indonesia and Japan's policies towards it 160 The Korean crisis and Japan’s policy towards it 163 The New Miyazawa Initiative 166 Chapter 5 Japanese Policy Towards East Asian Regionalism 174 The initial development of the ASEAN + 3 meeting 175 The second meeting of ASEAN + 3 in December 1998 180 The Mission for the revitalisation of the Asian economy (The Okuda Mission) 182 The third meeting of ASEAN + 3 in November 1999 185 The Chiang Mai Initiative 187 Expansion of the ASEAN + 3 framework to other areas 196 The fourth meeting of ASEAN + 3 in November 2000 197 The stance of the US on East Asian regionalism 200 The crisis and momentum of East Asian regionalism 201 Some implications for the study of regionalism 206 ii Chapter 6 The style of Japanese Foreign Policy: A Low-profile and Incremental Approach 210 The style of Japanese foreign policy in the postwar period 210 The implication of Japan's policies towards the East Asian crisis and East Asian regionalism for the style of Japanese foreign policy 223 How unique is the style of Japanese policy? 231 How deliberate is the style of Japanese foreign policy? 234 Chapter 7 Conclusion 241 Bibliography 259 279 List of Interviewees iii ABBREVIATIONS ACCSF Asian Currency Crisis Support Facility ADB Asian Development Bank AFT A ASEAN Free Trade Area AMF Asian Monetary Fund ANU Australian National University APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN ISIS ASEAN Institute of Strategic and International Studies ASEAN + 3 ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea ASEAN PMC ASEAN Post Ministerial Conference ASPAC Asia Pacific Council BIBF Bangkok International Banking Facilities BOJ Bank of Japan CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe EAEC East Asian Economic Caucus EAEG East Asian Economic Grouping EC European Community EEC European Economic Community EMEAP Executive Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Banks EPA Economic Planning Agency EU European Union FDI foreign direct investment GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GNP gross national product G7 Group of Seven industrialised countries IMF International Monetary Fund IPE International Political Economy IR International Relations JERC Japan Economic Research Centre JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LDP Liberal Democratic Party MEDSEA Ministerial Conference for Economic Development of Southeast Asia MITI Ministry of International Trade and Industry MOF Ministry of Finance MOFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement New AID Plan New Asian Industrial Development Plan NGO non-governmental organisations NICs Newly Industrialising Countries ODA overseas development assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECF Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund OPT AD Organisation for Pacific Trade and Development PAFTA Pacific Free Trade Area IV PAFTAD Pacific Trade and Development Conferences PBEC Pacific Basin Economic Council PECC Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference PKO peacekeeping operation SDF Self-Defence Forces UN United Nations UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WDR World Development Report WTO World Trade Organisation v JAPANESE WORDS gaiatsu foreign pressure Gaitame Shingikai Committee on Foreign Exchange and Other Transactions hoshu honryu the conservative policy line Keidanren Japan Federation of Economic Organisation Keizaidoyukai Japan Association of Corporate Executives Nikkeireii Japan Federation of Employers’ Association keizai kyoryoku economic cooperation seikei bunri the separation of politics from economics yosei shugi request from recipient governments vi LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1 Japanese Outward FDI by regions (1965-1995) 61 Table 2-2 Japanese Exports by regions (1965-1995) 61 Table 2-3 Japanese Imports by regions (1965-1995) 62 Table 2-4 The total amounts of Japanese ODA (1956-1997) 62 Table 2-5 Japan's bilateral ODA by regions (1980-1998) 76 Table 2-6 Japan's bilateral ODA by Recipients of Largest Amounts (1970-1998) 76 Vll ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My thanks go to numerous people, and especially my supervisors. Professor Richard Higgott and Dr Christopher W. Hughes. Particular thanks are due to them for their constant encouragement to me over the past four years. I will always be indebted to them for their patient guidance, invaluable comments and advice with considerable insight, which not only guide me onto a broad picture, but also directed my attention to detail. It is not possible to say how much I have learned from them. I would also like to thank the people I interviewed for this thesis. Despite their extremely tight daily schedules, most of them offered their time generously to answer my questions frankly and seriously. I am fortunate to have stimulating fellow Ph D. students at the University of Warw ick, Helen Nesadurai, Hitesh Patel, Francisco Huanacune, Liliana Pop, Fernanda Tuozzo and Paola Robotti. They were a great source of energy for me to conduct the research Also, I am grateful to Liliana for helping me to carefully proofread the thesis. 1 thank my parents and brother Tomoaki in Japan for always supporting and understanding me. Such a w arm family is the basis of my life, let alone this research. My dear husband Yuji deserves all of the rest of my thanks. Not only have his constant encouragement and unlimited support pushed me to go ahead without hesitation, but also his intelligence has always inspired me. DECLARATION This dissertation is my own work, and it has not been submitted for a degree at another university. Shigeko Hayashi Department of Politics and International Studies August 2002 IX ABSTRACT This thesis examines Japanese postwar foreign policy, specifically regional policy, based on two hypotheses that are closely related: (1) There has been a growing interest among Japanese policymakers in Japan taking greater initiative independent of US policy, not only economically but increasingly in the political and even the security area. (2) Japan has been quietly pursuing definite strategies for enhancing its national interests, and this style of Japanese foreign policy has been effective for achieving its goals, given domestic, regional and international constraints imposed on it. The thesis offers detailed analyses, within the framework of IR and 1PE, on what has changed in Japanese policy, what has caused the changes, what Japan has achieved throughout the postwar period and how and why Japan's policy exhibits such a style. These themes arc examined by looking at Japan's regional policy in the postwar period in the historical context, as well as by studying three case studies, namely: (1) the ideological differences between the Japanese approach and the Washington and Post-Washington Consensus on economic development and sy stemic transition. (2) Japanese policy towards the East Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 and (3) Japanese policy towards East Asian regionalism. Extensive interviews with Japanese policymakers, such as MOF and MOFA officials, and Japanese intellectuals arc used for investigating these case studies. The thesis makes the following original contributions to knowledge. Firstly, it advances the discussions about the nature of Japanese foreign policy, which has been the subject of academic controversy over the last few' decades, by shedding light on two related questions, namely (1) whether Japanese foreign policy can be characterised as reactive or strategic,