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Risk Assessment of Navigation in Laotieshan Channel World Maritime University The Maritime Commons: Digital Repository of the World Maritime University Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations Maritime Safety & Environment Management 8-24-2014 Risk assessment of navigation in Laotieshan Channel Jichao Na Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.wmu.se/msem_dissertations Part of the Environmental Studies Commons, and the Risk Analysis Commons This Dissertation is brought to you courtesy of Maritime Commons. Open Access items may be downloaded for non-commercial, fair use academic purposes. No items may be hosted on another server or web site without express written permission from the World Maritime University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WORLD MARITIME UNIVERSITY Dalian, China Risk Assessment of Navigation in Laotieshan Channel By Na Jichao People’s Republic of China A research paper submitted to the World Maritime University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In MARITIME SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2014 © Copyright Na Jichao, 2014 i DECLARATION I certify that all the materials in this research paper that are not my own work have been identified, and that no materials are included for which a degree has previously been conferred on me. The contents of this research paper reflect my own personal views, and are not necessarily endorsed by the University. (Signature): Na Jichao (Date): July 10, 2014 Supervised by: Fu Yuhui Professor Dalian Maritime University Assessor: Co-assessor: ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research paper was developed as a part of my study at WMU for completing my master’s degree in Maritime Safety and Environmental Management. I would like to express my thanks to the generous help I received from many people and organization which have greatly contributed to my success. I would like to express my deep gratitude and appreciation to my supervisor Professor Fu Yuhui for his guidance and encouragement. His advice and support is indeed invaluable not only for my current research but also for my future career. I also want to express my sincere thanks to Dalian MSA who provides me this precious opportunity to study in WMU. I remain very grateful to all those who helped me completing this study. I thank them very much for providing me useful information and sharing their views which contributes to success of this study. Lastly, I thank my wife Yanrong for her support and sacrifice throughout my study. As a father whose daughter is bounding to senior high school and a son whose parents being over eighty, I have a lot to carry on my shoulders for my family. I am fortunate to have her take all of my responsibilities, which makes me fully concentrate on my study. iii Abstract Title of Dissertation: Risk Assessment of Navigation in Laotieshan Channel Degree: Master of Science With the rapid development of shipping industry in recent years, the sea freight service has become one of the main transportation characterized by its low transportation cost and feasibility of carrying bulk cargo. As the carrier of goods by sea, cargo shipping has gradually develops into a large-scale, specialized and rapid expanding industry; the number of the ship grows every day, as a result, the marine traffic density increases sharply, which makes the navigation environment more complex. Especially in some important waterways, due to the dense traffic flow and complex navigational environment, these channels have become the areas where the major marine traffic accidents happen frequently. Laotieshan Channel is not only the throat of Bohai Bay, but also the most important route for the vessels in and out from major ports of Bohai Bay. Therefore, the vessel traffic flow is very heavy. Due to the strong wind, high waves, rapid current and foggy weather in the nearby waters, as well as the prohibited military areas in both sides, the water available for sailing of the merchant vessels isonly 5.5 nautical miles in width which contribute Laotieshan Channel getting more and more complex, congested, and dangerous with high traffic density, complex flow direction and frequent marine accidents. This paper analyzes potential risks of current navigation at Laotieshan Channel based on the information of navigational environment, traffic flow, traffic management and questionnaire results about Laotieshan Channel. Key words: Laotieshan Channel, Traffic Flow, Navigation Environment, Survey, Risk, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration ................................................................................................................... ii Acknoledgements ........................................................................................................ iii Abstract ........................................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... v List of Tables ............................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................. vii List of Abbreviations................................................................................................... ix Chapter I Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Reserch Background ........................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Objective and Contents ........................................................................ 2 Chapter II Analysis of Navigation Environment and Traffic in Laotieshan Channel ......................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Analysis of Navigation Environment in Laotieshan Channel .............................. 3 2.2 Laotieshan Channel Traffic Flow Research and Analysis ................................... 6 2.2.1 Track Distribution in Laotieshan Channel .................................................. 6 2.2.2 Vessel Speed Distribution ........................................................................... 9 2.2.3 Vessel Passing Volume Analysis ............................................................... 10 2.2.4 Influences of the Port Development to the Traffic Flow .......................... 13 2.3 Analysis of Marine Accidents Happened in Laotieshan Channel ...................... 22 2.3.1 Types of Marine Accident ......................................................................... 23 2.3.2 Time Distribution of Marine Accident Occurrence .................................. 23 2.3.3 Geological Distribution of Marine Accident Occurrence ......................... 25 2.3.4 Fishing boat operation’s influences on Laotieshan Channel navigation ... 26 Chapter III Analysis on Navigation Risk Questionnaire in Laotieshan Channel ..................................................................................................................................... 30 3.1. Contents and Targets of Questionnaire ............................................................. 30 3.2 Analysis of Questionnaire Results ..................................................................... 31 3.2.1 Vessel Navigation Risk Level in Laotieshan Channel ................................ 31 3.2.2 Influences of Geological and Weather Conditions on Navigation Safety .. 33 3.2.3 Analysis of the Speed Limit Regulation in Laotieshan Channel ................ 35 Chapter IV Potential Navigation Risks Assessment ............................................ 38 4.1 Determination of Navigation Risk Assessment Indexes .................................... 38 4.2 Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation on Navigation Risk in Laotieshan Channel 40 4.2.1 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation ................................................................ 40 4.2.2 Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Navigation Risk Level ..................... 42 Chapter V Conclusions .............................................................................................. 47 5.1 Conclusion Analysis .......................................................................................... 47 v 5.2 Research Limitations ......................................................................................... 47 5.3 Suggestions ........................................................................................................ 48 References ................................................................................................................... 49 Appendix1 Questionnaire of Laotieshan Channel Navigation Risks .................... 51 vi List of Tables Table 2.1 Statistics of Laotieshan Channel Accidents from 2009 to 2013…………..23 Table 4.1 Each Evaluation Index’s Danger Evaluation Standard……………………39 Table 4.2 All Evaluation Index values of the Laotieshan Channel……….…………44 List of Figures Figure 2.1 Laotieshan Channel and Nearby Waters on A Sea Chart…………………..4 Figure 2.2 Laotieshan Channel SRS and Reporting System Diagram………………...5 Figure 2.3 Vessel Track Diagram in Bohai Sea in 2013…………………………….....7 Figure 2.4 Laotieshan Channel SRS Diagram…………………………………….…..8 Figure 2.5 The Channel’s Eastbound and Westbound Vessel Speed Distribution in 2013……………………………………………………………………………………9 Figure 2.6 Channel Vessel
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