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China's Coal Market

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China's Coal Market December 2014 China’s Coal Market: Can Beijing Tame ‘King Coal’? OIES PAPER: CL 1 Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe, OIES Research Associate The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2014 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-78467-017-7 About the author Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe is an independent consultant on energy and raw materials, focussing on international issues. Since 2012, she has collaborated with the Energy Centre of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) as a research associate, with CyclOpe, the reference publication on commodities, with CEDIGAZ, the international centre of information on natural gas of IFPEN, and since 2014 with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES). Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe has a long and proven experience in global gas and energy markets, gained during her past positions at IFPEN/CEDIGAZ, the UN/ECE, the IEA and ATIC Services. She is the author of several reference publications on energy markets. Her latest publications include reports on gas and coal: Japan’s new energy policy (CEDIGAZ Insight, November 2014), China’s Gas Strategy (IFRI, November 2014), Coal and Coal Competition in the EU Power Sector (CEDIGAZ, June 2014), Shale gas development in Europe (IFRI, January 2014), The impact of the U.S. shale gas revolution on Europe’s petrochemical industries (IFRI, November 2013), Underground gas storage in the world (CEDIGAZ, June 2013), Global coal trade: from tightness to oversupply (January 2013). i December 2014: China’s Coal Market Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies for giving me the opportunity to write this report on China’s coal market, at a time when drastic evolution in Chinese coal and environmental policies significantly impacts Chinese and international markets. In particular, I wish to thank Bassam Fattouh, Director of OIES, for his encouraging support. My special thanks to Matthew Holland, who edited the first draft of this report, and made valuable comments and improvements. ii December 2014: China’s Coal Market Contents Structure of the report .......................................................................................................................... 1 Executive summary .............................................................................................................................. 2 Short-term: the key priority is to resolve the domestic oversupply issue ............................................ 2 Medium/long-term: a major restructuring and transformation of the coal sector ................................ 3 Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................................ 5 1. Introduction: the key role of China in the international coal market ........................................... 6 1.1. China accounts for half of global coal demand ............................................................................ 6 1.2. China has driven global coal growth ............................................................................................ 6 1.3. China has become the world’s largest coal importer ................................................................... 7 1.4 China is the current price-setting country for steam coal .............................................................. 8 1.5. China is engaged in a major transformation of its energy system ............................................... 9 2. New orientation of Chinese energy policy ................................................................................... 11 3. Towards peak coal demand ........................................................................................................... 13 3.1 The power sector, and therefore industrial demand, dominates coal demand ........................... 13 3.1.1 Main consuming sectors ....................................................................................................... 13 3.1.2 Coal accounts for three-quarters of China’s electricity generation ....................................... 14 3.2 Transformation of the economy .................................................................................................. 14 3.2.1 Shift in economic structure and slower economic growth..................................................... 14 3.2.2 Rising energy efficiency ........................................................................................................ 15 3.2.3 China to control energy use to fulfill its energy and carbon intensity targets ....................... 16 3.3 Fighting air pollution .................................................................................................................... 17 3.3.1 The Airborne Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan ................................................. 17 3.3.2 Local response: Beijing and other major big cities ............................................................... 20 3.3.3 Impact on the existing coal fleet ........................................................................................... 21 3.3.4 Impact on coal imports .......................................................................................................... 23 3.4 Diversification of the electricity mix and acceleration of the development of green energy sources .............................................................................................................................................. 24 3.4.1 China to speed up the development of renewables ............................................................. 24 3.4.2 China to ramp up nuclear power ........................................................................................... 25 3.4.3 China to accelerate gas development .................................................................................. 25 3.4.4 New targets for 2017 ............................................................................................................ 26 3.5 Cap on CO2 emissions ................................................................................................................ 27 3.6 Coal resource tax reform............................................................................................................. 28 3.5.1 Central and provincial governments fighting against illegal taxes ........................................ 28 3.5.2 Coal resource tax .................................................................................................................. 28 4. Coal demand: the great transformation and migration ............................................................... 29 4.1 The development of large coal-power bases .............................................................................. 29 4.2 Advanced clean coal technologies .............................................................................................. 31 4.2.1 Clean coal conversion .......................................................................................................... 31 iii December 2014: China’s Coal Market 4.2.2 Clean coal combustion ......................................................................................................... 32 4.2.3. Carbon capture, use and storage ........................................................................................ 32 4.3 Strategic development of long-distance, large-capacity, cross-regional power transmission .... 35 4.3.1 A strategic move and a long-term vision .............................................................................. 35 4.3.2 UHV projects ......................................................................................................................... 36 4.4 Chemical conversion: the ‘sleeping giant’ ................................................................................... 38 4.4.1 Coal-to-Gas entering a new stage ........................................................................................ 39 4.4.2 Coal-to-chemicals ................................................................................................................. 41 4.4.3 Coal-to-liquids ....................................................................................................................... 42 4.4.4 Coal conversion projects face many challenges that will limit the number of approved projects .......................................................................................................................................... 43 4.5 The peak coal demand debate ................................................................................................... 45 5. Coal supply ...................................................................................................................................... 50 5.1. Coal production has tripled since 2000 ...................................................................................... 50 5.2. Huge coal resources but unevenly distributed
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