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Risk Assessment of Navigation Safety in the Water Area of Bohai

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Risk Assessment of Navigation Safety in the Water Area of Bohai World Maritime University The Maritime Commons: Digital Repository of the World Maritime University Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations Maritime Safety & Environment Management 8-24-2014 Risk assessment of navigation safety in the water area of Bohai Bingcong Dai Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.wmu.se/msem_dissertations Part of the Hydrology Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Risk Analysis Commons This Dissertation is brought to you courtesy of Maritime Commons. Open Access items may be downloaded for non-commercial, fair use academic purposes. No items may be hosted on another server or web site without express written permission from the World Maritime University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WORLD MARITIME UNIVERSITY Dalian, China RISK ASSESSMENT OF NAVIGATION SAFETY IN THE WATER AREA OF BOHAI By DAI BINGCONG The People’s Republic of China A research paper submitted to the World Maritime University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE (MARITIME SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT) 2014 © Copyright Dai Bingcong, 2014 i DECLARATION I certify that all the materials in this research paper that are not my own work have been identified, and that no material is included for which a degree has previously been conferred on me. The content of this research paper reflects my own personal views, and are not necessarily endorsed by the University. (Signature): Dai Bingcong (Date): July 10, 2014 Supervised by: Wang Fengwu Professor Dalian Maritime University Assessor: Co-assessor: ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This paper is developed as part of my studies to obtain the master degree of Maritime Safety and Environmental Management (MSEM) at WMU and DMU. I am profoundly grateful to all people who have supported and helped me in various ways during my studies. First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor Professor Wang Fengwu, for his patience and encouragement and for guiding me through the process of this project. His help is indeed valuable. I must give my heartfelt thanks to all professors attending the MSEM 2014 program. Their professional knowledge broadened my eyesight and instilled in me new ideas and methodologies, without which the study would not have been completed. My gratitude also goes to the administrative staff at the International Convention Research Center of DMU, for providing me with support during my study. I remain very grateful to all the classmates of MSEM 2014. I thank them for their company and for sharing their views and experiences. Together we experienced a nice time in DMU. Last but not least, my deepest gratitude goes to my parents for their encouragement and support throughout the study, for they have constantly inspired me to complete this project. iii ABSTRACT Title of Research Paper: Risk Assessment of Navigation Safety in the Water Area of Bohai Degree: MSc According to the ship safety management, navigation safety is a large and complex system, and it is constituted by the factors of "man - machine (ship) - environment - management". Navigation risk is made up of the superimposition of elements in the system and the various causes, including human unsafe behaviors and physical unsafe conditions, environment and management. In the thesis, based on several main risk factors affecting the navigation safety in the water area of Bohai (hydrometeorology, route conditions, vessel traffic, maritime supervision), the author sets up qualitative analysis from chapter 2 to chapter 5, and divides the risk factors into five grades, lowest (1), lower (2), medium (3), higher (4), highest (5), and determines the level of risk of each factor respectively for quantitative analysis in chapter 6. In the end, the author identifies, analyzes, and takes measures against the potential risk, with the purpose to improve the navigation safety. Keywords: Risk Assessment, Hydrometeorology, Route Conditions, Vessel Traffic, Maritime Supervision, Grey System, iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ......................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................. v LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background of Research ..................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research significance .......................................................................................... 2 CHAPTER 2 Risk Factors Identification about Hydrometeorology ..................... 4 2.1 The factors of wind ............................................................................................. 4 2.2 The factors of waves ........................................................................................... 6 2.3 The factors of current .......................................................................................... 9 2.4 The factors of visibility ..................................................................................... 11 2.5 The factors of sea ice ......................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 3 Risk Factors Identification about Route conditions....................... 17 3.1 The factors of the depth of water .................................................................... 17 3.2 The factors of islands and reefs ......................................................................... 19 3.3 The factors of obstruction ................................................................................. 20 3.4 The factors of oil platforms ............................................................................... 22 CHAPTER 4 Risk Factors Identification about Vessel Traffic ............................ 27 4.1 The factors of traffic flow ................................................................................. 27 4.2 The factors of vessel density ............................................................................. 30 4.3 The factors of encounter situations ................................................................... 32 4.4 The factors of traffic accidents .......................................................................... 33 4.5 The factors of fishing activities ......................................................................... 37 CHAPTER 5 Risk Factors Identification about Maritime Supervision .............. 38 5.1 The factors of vessel traffic service ................................................................... 38 5.2 The factors of assistant navigation facilities ..................................................... 39 v 5.3 The factors of port security system ................................................................... 42 5.4 The factors of water area planning .................................................................... 43 CHAPTER 6 Model Study of Risk Assessment ...................................................... 46 6.1 The grey characteristics of marine traffic system ............................................. 46 6.2 The hierarchical structure of navigation risk assessment .................................. 47 6.3 The assessment of target weight ........................................................................ 48 6.3.1 The construction of judgment matrix ......................................................... 49 6.3.2 Weight calculation ...................................................................................... 50 6.3.3 Consisitency checks ................................................................................... 52 6.4 Grey risk assessment model .............................................................................. 54 6.4.1 Grey system theory ..................................................................................... 54 6.4.2 Determine the assessment grey .................................................................. 57 6.4.3 Obtain the whitenization weight function .................................................. 57 6.4.4 Calculate the clustering coefficient ............................................................ 60 6.4.5 Comprehensive assessment ........................................................................ 61 CHAPTER 7 Navigation Risk Analysis and Suggestion ....................................... 62 7.1 Navigation risk analysis in the water area of Bohai .......................................... 62 7.2 The suggestion of navigation safety in the water area of Bohai ....................... 65 CHAPTER 8 Conclusion .......................................................................................... 69 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 70
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