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Siberia, projection Siberia, change, climaticscenario, Northeastern area, balance, glaciertermini, model, climate Asia are discussedinthepaper. application to theglaciersystems oftheNE a glaciersystem. The results of the method viaaltitudein schemes oficedistribution baseline andprojected period, hypsographic balanceprofiles for ofvertical construction The methodinvolvesones (Kamchatka). Chersky, Orulgan)andtemperate-marine continental glaciersystems (Suntar-Khayata, other climaticscenarios. We have considered usingtheECHAM 4.5andsome Mountains development in2049–60isappliedfor NEAsia The methodfor ofglaciersystems projection –by17%(1967–2003). 2003), Byrranga by20%(1945– (1970–2003), Suntar-Khayata reduced byabout30% Range of Chersky total glacierization the rate ofreduction.In of of a glacierinterms morphological type and by groups, bythesame aspect sorted The retreated glaciershave beenanalyzed with thesatellite ( mainly onareal-photo andvisualservices compilation,whichwasbasedinventory change ofglacierarea sincetheGlacier the USSR(1945,1967and1970). We studied of with thedatagiven inthe GlacierInventory ranges(2003) andChersky Suntar-Khayata, glacier state inglaciersystems ofByrranga, analysis ofthesatellite imagesdataaboutthe Paper presents theresults ofcomparative Maria D. Ananicheva Geography and Nature Management, e-mail: [email protected] andNature e-mail: Management, researcher,3 Scientific ofPhysical ofGeography Institute RAS,Department [email protected] e-mail: 2 Professor, ofClimatology, ofGeography Institute RAS,Laboratory [email protected]: 1* Leading ofGeography scientist,Institute RAS,GlaciologyDepartment, KEY WORDS: ABSTRACT 1 GLACIERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN ASIA RECENT AND FORECASTED CHANGE OF 9
Glacier system, ELA,glacier LANDSAT 1* , Alexander N.Krenke ) imagesdata. (Corresponding author) glacier retreat for ofcurrent theperiod of USSR(1960–80s)allowed assessing the Landsat oftheglacierareasComparison obtainedby projection ofglacierbehavior for thefuture. region byremote sensingmethod anda assessment ofglacierchangethisvast This wasamotivationfor thestudyof now [Ananicheva, etal, 2002](Fig. 1). phase onto warming, whichproceeds till just atthethreshold ofchanging thecold intheIGYperiod, were started observations on essentialretreat ofglaciers. Glaciological thathashadaneffect end of20thcentury regarding inthe started climate warming regionthe NESiberia isanomalousenough of RussiaandEastern Yakutia. Apparently, 1961 to 2000,are obtainedfor thesouth exceeded value)for critical from theperiod summer whenaverage dailytemperature (numberofdaysfactor inthewinter or maximal absolute valuesofthelineartrend Russia,www.meteo.ru)WDC (Obninsk, the in glaciersize, asbythedataofRIHMI- ofthelargemost essentialfactor changes issuggested to bethe in the20thcentury Temperature regime ofthishugeregion conducted. hasbeen since thennoregular observation measurements theIGYin1957–59, onlyduring of glacierstate (change). They were under studiedregion poorly interms is avery zone (subarctic Siberia ofEurasia) Northern INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION 2 , Gregory A.Kapustin , Gregory imagery and the Glacier Inventory andtheGlacierInventory imagery 3
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2 0 glaciers cover 163km inNERussia–about195glacierization isoneofthelargest centers ofpresentIt elevationsreach almost3000m. Its Ocean. theArctic entering tributaries the Indigirka theriverbasinsofAldanand between isawatershed Range The Suntar-Khayata The Suntar-Khayata Range complexes ofKamchatka. volcano-glacier andspecific Range glaciers oftheChersky of theOrulganrangeto large dendritic and regime –from types smallcirque glaciers represent ofmorphology awidespectrum Glacier systems analysedinthepaper ones–also2otherAOGCMs.4 selected 2040–2069usingECHAM4 andforperiod for a andKamchatka Siberia the North-East isappliedto 17glaciersystemsMethod in system bylinearandnon-linearvariants. oficeinachangingand altitudinaldistribution usingcalculationofELAchanges scenarios systems asawholeaccording theclimate andmassbalanceofglacier distribution theareas,and reconstruction altitudinal We alsodeveloped methodofprojection andaspect. type glacier groups withthesamemorphological warming. The estimate wasdonefor the 2005]. The mainsource ofsnowfallfor the GLACIERS STUDIED a — annual values for the warming up to 1995, T°C/50 years; b — summer trends for the same period, T°C/50 years; a —annualvalues to thewarming up for 1995, T°C/50 period, trends thesame years; b—summer for T°C/50 Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of positive temperature trends: 2 [Ananicheva etal., c — winter trends for the same period, T°C/50 years T°C/50 c —winter period, trends thesame for for theIGY(Fig. thestudyduring 2 glacier waschosenasakey Massif Northern also significant inwinter. Glacier31inthe massif oftherange, Arcticairinvasions are autumn.For glacier and early thenorthern inspring, summer inparticular Okhotsk, brought from thePacific andtheSeaof glacier systems ismoisture thathasbeen Fig. 2. Maps and schemes of the regions regions the of schemes and Maps 2. Fig. a) Suntar –Khayata Mountains under study: study: under a ) 117.08.2011 11:53:18 7 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 1
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which cover 113km containsabout300glaciers Range Chersky According to thelatest assessments, the Range.2350–2400 minSuntar-Khayata 2150–2180magainst (ELA) here islower: Therefore, linealtitude theoverall equilibrium moisture supplyfrom thePacific Ocean. the AleutianLow, inthearea ofprevailing andcloserto Range of theSuntar-Khayata located to ofNESiberia thenorth inner part occupiesthe contains anumberofridges) mountainsystem (which Range The Chersky RangemountainThe Chersky system main watershed line, mainly onleeward present islocated alongthe glacierization wereRange) firstmappedinthe1940s. The (Verkoyansky The glaciersofOrulganRidge Ridge Orulgan 2005]. (Fig. 2 2 1 Fig. 2. Maps and schemes of the regions regions the of schemes and Maps 2. Fig. b ) c) Range Orulgan under study: study: under 2 [Ananicheva atal., 20 km about80glacierscovering morphology; (basically cirque andhanging glacier to south.GlaciersofOrulgan north 25 km forms areas –intwo and stretching 112km slopesinconcave(eastward-facing) relief seasonal variations being under the influence beingundertheinfluence seasonal variations than over any otherregion ofRussiaandshows Peninsula, precipitation ishigher Kamchatka related mainlyto theAleutianLow. Within the the glacierswithmoisture from cyclones whichfeed andtheSeaofOhkotsk, Ocean 50and60°N,nearthePacificlies between glaciers. glaciers Kamchatka The Kamchatka featurevolcanism isthecharacteristic glaciated regions considered inthisstudy, in non-volcanic regions. Notably, outofall volcanism), andlessthan19% Quaternary 44% onancientvolcanic massifs (regions of located intheregions volcanism, ofactive about of 448glaciers, withacombinedarea of consists glacierization The Kamchatka Kamchatka (Fig.western oftheArcticOcean. sector 2 Atlanticand from theNorth cyclones incoming is lower than2000m,andtheglaciersface descendtoglacier termini 1500m;theELA ofRussiawhere part climate-influenced glaciation istheonlyoneincontinental- the topography isrelatively low. The modern Fig. 2. Maps and schemes of the regions regions the of schemes and Maps 2. Fig. 2 906 km ) existonaccountofclimate since b) Range, Chersky Buordakh Massif (a center of glaciarization) 2 . Of theseglaciers, 38%are . Of under study: study: under only c ).
for for 117.08.2011 11:53:19 7 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 1
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2 2 increases from north-west of themonsoon(Muraviev, 1999).Precipitation and eastern withthealtitudes and eastern –western, middle,system inthree parts and Taimyra riversdividethemountain and vastrolling plateaus. Valleys ofPyasina parallel orenechelonmountainchains Siberia. They are formed bythesystem of ofthe part Taimyrnorthern Peninsular, NW are Mountains located intheByrranga Byrranga Mountains (maximal elevation is 1146 m). Mountains (maximal elevationis1146 m). Mountains 400–600 mи600–1000correspondingly above 2200m.(Fig. 2 theELArises well inlandonKamchatka 500 ma.s.l. andtheELAis~1000m,whereas coast, theglaciersthere descendto 250– Peninsula, whichfacesthePacific Ocean Due to abundantprecipitation onKronotsky ofglaciation. maritime-type the modern relief andgeological structureshave ledto precipitation regimes, otherclimaticfactors, http://www.meteo.ru). The temperature and (Russian Hydrometeorological Service, according to lowlandweather stations (upto 2000mmyr to south-east Fig. 2. Maps and schemes of the regions regions the of schemes and Maps 2. Fig. under study: study: under d) Kamchatka d ). (400 mmyr
250–320 m, –1 –1 ) ) absolute area reduction,themeanfor each of glaciersandtheiraspect. We calculated bythesamemorphological type sorted We analyzed Δ ofgeography,the Institute RASin1970. area measurements, madebyexpeditionof dated by1958–59withadditionofafew wasusedfor area determination the IGY) Koreisha (anexplorer oftheseglaciersduring additionto thisanevidenceofProf.In M.M. (APS) in1945. conducted survey aerial-photo were defined inmajorcasesbythedataof Glacier areas Mountains oftheSuntar-Khayata andthatof2000s–Δ in theInventory theglacierareabetween estimations, given USSR, we canassessarea lossfor thetime ofthe same glaciersfrom GlacierInventory Usingthedataaboutareas ofthe surveys). forMountains 2002–2003(dataof andByrranga Range Mountains, Chersky and areas ofglaciersfor theSuntar-Khayata present. Upto nowwe identifiedlengths present timeglacierstate from theLGM to exploredis apoorly region of interms (Taimyr Peninsular) which andNESiberia, of glacierdatabasecreation for the West mountain glaciationwere usedfor thestart for mappingmodern multi-zonal imagery General andappliedanalysistechniques of glaciers Siberia change by satelliteforNorthern imagery Techniques appliedto assess the glacierarea Osipova, 1989] forcharacteristics theseyears. [Dolgushin, size ofglaciersandtheirmorphologic surveys –onlyin1950-s.countries Areal-photo later thanotherRussianmountain known oftheglacierexistence hereThe fact became role.diabase plays animportant and Palaeozoic age, amongthemgabbro- are composedwithrocks ofPrecambrian CENTURY TILL PRESENT CENTURY TILL FROM THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH ASSESSMENT OF GLACIER AREA CHANGE
1950-s и1967-sdefinedanumber, S for thegroups ofglaciers, Landsat S . 118.08.2011 11:30:40 8 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 1
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2 3 Table 1. Reduction of glacier area for Suntar-Khayata (by morphological type and aspect)
Aspect/Morthological type S SE E SE S SW W NW
1945–2003
Compound-valley 0.41/1/13.7 0.43/2/16 0.7/2/27.5 0.22/2/8.2
Valley 0.12/5/9.5 0.21/7/20.2 0.1/1/6.3 0.16/1/0 0.48/1/26.7 0.25/9/17.9
Corrie-valley 0.2/6/27.5 0.16/10/17.5 0.87/1/87 0.33/1/33 0.12/10/15.4
Corrie 0.11/6/29.6 0.27/7/31.2 0.08/3/13.8 0.18/14/33.6
Hanging-corrie 0.18/13/27.5 0.24/3/69.1 0/1/0 0.16/1/20 0.17/5/36.7
Hanging 0.17/7/33.6 0.26/4/49.7 0.23/1/76.7 0/1/0 0.1/5/39
Shifting-valley 0.45/2/44.2
1970–2003
Compound-valley 0.41/1/13.7 0.43/2/16 0.7/2/27.5 0.22/2/8.2
Valley 0.12/5/9.5 0.21/7/20.2 0.1/1/6.3 0.16/1/0 0.48/1/26.7 0.25/9/17.9
Corrie -valley 0.2/6/27.5 0.16/10/17.5 0.87/1/87 0.33/1/33 0.12/10/15.4
Corrie 0.11/6/29.6 0.27/7/31.2 0.08/3/13.8 0.18/14/33.6
Hanging-corrie 0.18/13/27.5 0.24/3/69.1 0/1/0 0.16/1/20 0.17/5/36.7
Hanging 0.17/7/33.6 0.26/4/49.7 0.23/1/76.7 0/1/0 0.1/5/39
Shifting-valley 0.45/2/44.2 117.08.2011 11:53:21 7 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 1
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Table 2. Reduction of glacier area for Chersky (by morphological type and aspect)
Aspect/Morthological type S SE E SE S SW W
1970–2003
Dendritic 1.2/1/10
Compound-valley 0.44/5/23.1 0.84/2/55.4 1.98/1/55 0.79/3/11.6
Valley 0.21/9/16.4 0.37/2/49.4 0.67/2/52 0.12/2/14.3 0.12/2/13.5 0.5/3/38.4
Corrie -valley 0.14/4/18.3 0.64/1/71.1 0.48/1/60
Corrie 0.11/19/27.7 0.8/1/21.3 0.04/2/27.5 0.13/2/26.5 0.08/1/11.4 0.35/2/62.5
Hanging-corrie 0.08/3/25 0/1/0
Hanging 0.06/5/25 0.16/1/53.3 0.05/1/50.0 margins with we appliedDEM(ETOPO-30) ofglacier individual glaciersandcorrections in summer. For more precise locationof indicatesin onepattern snowdisappearing 2001 and2003. The absenceoficeatleast patches (lots),covered withicebothin theareaInto oftheglacierwe included real contours ofglaciersfor thattime. 2003) madepossibleto definethemost contours for different dates (2001and baseplate. oftheglacier The comparison glaciers byinteractive digitizing over raster We contours constructed for individual (SLCcorrector off). was produced intheconditionofbroken by 2001andone–2003whenthesurvey images, ofthemare two dated byAugust the results ofanalysisthree ofsatellite thispaper wethese conditions. present In asmallnumberofimageswhichfit select year. In approximately from 20.08to 05.09each ofmaximalablation, time –intheperiod glaciers are openfrom snowfor ashort that Additional difficultiesconsistinthefact Mountains. images for Byrranga gauze) hasaggravated ofsatellite aselection climate features (“polar night”, cloudinessand –glaciersbehindtheArcticCircleobjects and region andto mapthem. The locationofthe glacier changeinthisinsufficientlyexplored sensing approach isareal chanceto estimate for thefieldresearch,transportation remote andresource-required Due to poor accessibility is madealsoby glacierstate The assessmentoftheByrranga by space imagery Method ofByrranga glaciersassessment retreat in%. number ofglaciersinthegroup/relative and 2,thecolumnsshowsabsolute retreat/ Inventory. The results are presented intables1 Δ group Δ Mapper Mapper made by S / S , (%),where S + Landsat (km
surveying devices. surveying Thematic Mapper and Thematic Mapper Thematic 2 ), andrelative decrease ofarea archives we managedto S –anarea given inthe Landsat
satellite
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(Buordakh Massive) ismore Massive) intensive(Buordakh thanin Range ofChersky over centralpart warming the reason may berooted that inthefact individual glacierstheselossesare significant, a glacier, given intheInventory. However for and thoseofpossiblewrong assessmentsof (relatively lowresolution, cloudiness, etc.) errors ofourestimates bothbytheimages have obviouslyto includeinto these5%the not related to general climate situation,we really advancedglaciersdueto thereasons, ranges have Besides enhancedtheirextent. andChersky glaciers ofSuntar-Khayata al, 2003].However about5%oftheentire 2004,Ananichevaet fall [Gruza,Ranjkova, temperature trends and especiallyinspring region thatnowisdistinguishedbymaximal uptowarming, now. which keeps There isthis the considered dueto climate timeperiod glaciersreduced forSiberia theirextent oftheNE majority The overwhelming andaspect selected by morphological type oftheReduction glacierarea forthe groups glaciers(Fig. type transaction 2 specification ofthemargins united between of pseudo3DimagebyDEMfacilitates spatial resolution 1km/pixel.Construction OF NE SIBERIA GLACIER CHANGE RESULTS OF THE ASSESSMENT 2 5 Fig. 2. Maps and schemes of the regions under study: study: under regions the of schemes and Maps 2. Fig. e) Byrranga Mountans, Taimyr, map 3D model e ). types (thetypes area andcomplicated-valleyglaciers ofdendrite however anumberofrelativelyKhayata, big glaciers ofbigsize here thaninSuntar- hanging glaciers, ingeneralthere are lesser represented valley, mainlybycorrie, and is glaciarization Range The Chersky 2005]. [Ananicheva, Krenke, Range Suntar-Khayata systems isdifferent. isonlypossibleto say It glaciers inthegroups for bothmountain 1970) isratherdifficult,since the numberof ofassessment–since 2 data(thesameperiod glaciersonthebasisoftables1and Chersky ofΔ Comparison valley, andcorrie. corrie-valley morphological types, butespeciallyfor firall (higherwarming) and NWaspects of thearea lostisalsolarge amongNE,E, in thisregion. ( Relative portion that consistent withmore intensive warming glaciers, (0.7–0.8km ofNWandNEaspect difference (Δ area –from 0.84to almost2km lostmaximum glaciers oftheseaspects value thevalleyandcomplicated- northern 35 years. The prevailingofglaciersis aspect lastingfor ofwarming and intensity recent scale ofarea lossisconsistent withglaciersize and north-western. In In and north-western. S ) is fixed among those corrie ) isfixed amongthosecorrie S >10km S for and theSuntar-Khayata 2 ) are developed. The 2 . The largest . The absolute S /Δ valley S , %) 118.08.2011 11:29:16 2 8 ) . 0 8 . 2 0 1 1
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2 6 162.2 km area mountainswas ofSuntar-Khayata ourestimationin2003 theentireBy glacier oftherangesstudied. parts forcharacteristic centralandeven northern change themore intensive meltingis strengthened) dueto circulation process therecentduring 30years (warming ofthemountainsystems, parts in southern not intensive) glaciermeltingwasgreater upto 1970-s(warming following tendency: considered region demonstrates the Takahashi, 2005]we cansay thatthe With accountof[Ananicheva, Koreisha, region [Ananicheva, 2005]. Krenke, solid precipitationsea comingfrom Okhotsk glaciers issmoothedoutbyincrease of NE Siberia. Warming for inSuntar-Khayata anomalies for therecent inthe warming that distinguishesbymaximumtemperature ofChersky thattherethe fact iscentralpart in Suntar-Khayata. The reason mightroot in range reduced greaterChersky thanthose 35yearsthat during large glaciersofthe to 113km has thesamerate, itsarea would decrease rangeglaciationretreatthat theChersky equal to 60.8км it decreased by23.4km system andtheirarea is84.2km cover aboutahalfoftheentire glacierofthis As rangethespaceimages for theChersky by 19.3%: is attributed to valley and transaction types, tois attributed valleyandtransaction evidence) thebiggestlossinabsolute values glaciers (11).Since1967(the Inventory are relatively (twinned) many transaction prevail,morphological types andthere valley (19glaciers)andnear-slope (12) the aspect, andnorthwestern northern glaciershas ofByrranga The majorpart Byrranga glaciers: changeofthe area in 1970. 1945 Inventory (199.4km 1945 Inventory the total area ofglaciersaccording to the glaciation in2003appeared to belessthan 2 . The area oftheSuntar-Khayata 2 in2003compared to 156km 2 . Undertheassumption 2 2 (28%)andwas ) by37.2km 2 . In 2003 . In 2 or 2
longer. These processes leadupto different anablationperiod and winter thatmakes glaciers reduced insize from 0.1to 0.7km pattern). pattern). That iswhy the bigger–incyclonic eastern, anticyclonic, weather) in and12w(24days, western part 13s (59days peryear, completely cyclonic The largest role belongsto theECMs– is5days andlessonaverage.the frequency rare in total) – areof theECMs(49types very However thelastdecadeamajorpart during weather. anti-cyclonic they basicallybring summer In Taimyr isundermany ECMs, and part. weather inthenorth-eastern cyclonic invasion;undergoes there cyclonic are anti- of which thesouth-western part Taimyr Dzerdzeevskii [1962,1975],under of Boris winter –correspondingly) byclassification (ECM) 12sand13w(sw–summer is now “elementary circulation mechanism” winteractivity. themostlongstanding In Taimyr hasbeenunderintensive cyclonic of atleastthesouth-westernperiod part recent dozenIn years thealmostentire cold 3). (Table windward slopesthanonleeward ones sotheglaciersretreatedcyclones, less on for abarrier western Mtsserves Byrranga pronounced eastwardthanwestward. Mts, herewithByrranga thetrends are more the stations, located to thesouthfrom Т Specifically thepositive annualtrends of weather-stations, mentionedabove. This isingoodcorrespondence withdata face SouthandEast,have suffered most. indicator,climate-related theglaciers, which As for a thatisto someextent theaspect couloirs glaciersofmiddleandsmallsize. the biggestloss 1.0 km as 0.01–0.1km slope glaciersreduced theirarea asmuch near-Corrie, corrie-valley, corry-hanging, Т either closeto zero, orslightly-positive. The largest ones(2–4.5km asthe aspect basically oftheNorthern year year (summer increase isdueto the 2 (data of 1967). In relative (dataof1967).In values(%) Т 2 Δ , theinitialareas are 0.1to sum S refers to valleyand corrie, –less)are recorded at 2 ). Onaverage these Т
of inter-seasons Т sum trends are 117.08.2011 11:53:22 7 . 0 8 . 2 2 . 0 1 1
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aspect. aspect. degree ofglaciersreductionifnotingtheir 2 grouped by morphological type and aspect, aspect, and type bymorphological grouped 7 group. indicates increase,Note: Minus onaverage bya Aspect Morpho-type lesser than0.1km Note: The tablecontainsdataaboutthe glaciersfrom theUSSRGlacierInventory, thestate ofmore than30glaciers Table 3. Relative retreat of Byrranga glaciers, glaciers, Byrranga of retreat Table Relative 3. W030317 11 0,3 13 1,1 00 0,3 2,0 21 1,1 0,1 14 2,0 0,2 13 0,1 0,4 NW 21 0,2 0,2 W 0,4 0,5 SW 0,2 S 0,5 SE 14 E 0,2 NE N –45 0,02 20 0,1 Near-slope 0,2 Couloir –0,05 13 26 (twinned) 0,04 Transection 0,3 0,6 Hanging Corrie- 0,05 0,15 00 Corrie Corrie-Valley 0,0 Valley Compound 0,00 glaciers, which The numberof Parameter area doesnot change 546(therest 15 2 hasnotbeenconsidered. Landsat data, km ,11514 16 1,5 0,1 0,21 0,02 The numberof 2 reduced area glaciers with
disappeared) data, 1967 Table 4. Total retreat of Byrranga glaciers Byrranga of Table Total 4. retreat km 2 Δ S Total glacierarea, , % Δ S % 1967, km 922.916.5 24.39 29.2 the Inventory (air-photo-surveys of various ofvarious (air-photo-surveys the Inventory than thetotal area ofglaciersaccording to since 1945in2003appeared to beless glaciation oftheSuntar-Khayata Reduction evidence ofthe V.A. Saranaexpedition. temperature trends andcited-above into accounthas exceeded 20%,taking to present theretreat glaciers ofByrranga with the1967state (T has reduced asmuch Mountains, whichwasinventoried,Byrranga 2003byourestimationtheglaciationof In channels”. or rubblefieldsare forming alongthese sites ofmainchannelsdischarge. “Anthills” with morainematerials, theexclusions are valley glaciersurfaces. They are notcovered glaciers. There are onthe nosnowandfirn of ability rate andinsignificant transporting available. The latter indicates slowmovement morainesarevalley glaciers;terminal not melt water discharge to isattributed the any. Steep tongue, cutwithchannelsfor to largechanged proportionally glaciersif to bemostresilient,turned andtheirsize slower.200 m.Smallglaciersshrink They retreated by100–120m,Glacier55– other. Since1967the Yuzhniy Glaciertongue ofsomeglaciersfrom eachadjunction have beenbrokenoutaccompaniedwith For 40 years large glaciercomplexes “nowadays glaciersare retreating. Byrranga the glacierstate, ourestimates: confirming Mts recently, presents newevidenceabout author ofwhichhasbeento theByrranga up to 2003. The paper[Sarana,2009], the We estimated theglacierretreat byarea 2 Total glacierarea, 2003, km 2 able 17% as 4). Obviously, up Reduction ofarea Reduction for 36years, % compared 117.08.2011 11:53:22 7 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 1
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2 8 (e.g. Hess, 1904; Kalesnik, 1963),andused (e.g. Hess, 1904;Kalesnik, is basedontheGefer/Kurowski method measurements.direct The latter assumption of theglaciersystems incaseofabsence of ELAto top bebetween levels andtermini ablation attheELAlevel andtheassumption ofaccumulationandchange, equality systems involving ELAresponse to climate method for non-tidal mountainglacier methods upto now. We have developed which cannotbesolved byhydrodynamic task, important isvery change scenarios systems asawholeaccording to climate Projection ofglacier andreconstruction circulation patterns. or archipelago andsimilaratmospheric the environment: thesamemountain system glaciers united bytheircommonlinkswith The term “glacier system” refers to asetof glaciarization. Range reduction ofChersky butisslower thanthe the SeaofOkhotsk compensated byincreased snowfallfrom whereas inSuntar-Khayata, ablationlossis glaciersapproximatelyof Byrranga thesame range withinNESiberia. The rate ofretreat ofthis inthecentral part maximal warming of it isingoodcorrespondence withthefact to 2003theglaciersdecreased by28%that dates) up by19.3%.As Range, for theChersky AND KAMCHATKA GLACIERS CHANGE FOR NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA ASSESSMENT OF “GLACIER SYSTEMS” Fig. 3. Examples of hypsographic curves (distribution of ice area versus altitude) for northeast Siberia glaciers systems ( systems glaciers Siberia northeast for for present time. We usedtheassumption ablation andparallelto accumulationprofile accumulation valuesattheELA,equalto basedon extrapolation incorporating at1500m, identified byobservation byprecipitation gradients in Kamchatka meteorological station(2050ma.s.l.) and accordingSiberia to theSuntar-Khayata We precipitation extrapolated innortheast system. on prevailing inthe morphological type depending concentration onglaciersurface oncoefficientofsnowwith correction precipitation (weather stationsrecords) Accumulation iscalculated from solid on glaciercoolingwasintroduced. formula 1982]. Correction empirical [Krenke, from summertemperature bygeneral climatic dataisused. Ablationiscalculated mass-balance componentsallavailable To ofpresent distribution estimate vertical change (Fig. 3). upward) underclimateice covered surfaces of change ofglaciersystem (shift vertical in theglaciersystem isabasisfor modeling ofglacierized areadistribution versus altitude of hypsographic schemesshowingthe most climate models. The construction by with thatoftaken WMO andinthe is abaselinethatcoincidesto amajorpart wascompiled) the USSRGlacierInventory with climate. 1960–1980(when The period for situationwhenglaciersare inbalance a ) and for Kamchatka ( Kamchatka for ) and b ). 117.08.2011 11:53:22 7 . 0 8 . 2 0
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Kurowski methodof ELAidentification,the Kurowski to newclimate inaccordance withtheGefer/ adaptation ofglaciers isassumedthatafter It possible naturalvariability. into account 2040–2069, additionallytaking reductionoftheglaciersformaximum likely other AOGCMs. The aimisto evaluate the greater with by2100incomparison warming as ascenario,GGa11 whichpredictsrelatively We have chosentheECHAM4/OPYC3 – them give theanticipated ELAvalues(Fig. 4). parameters.scenario of The intersections are oftheGCM– byintroduction constructed by thegrid. the entire altitudinalrangeencompassed the glaciersystem islocated, spreads over forscenario eachgrid pointwithinwhich that thetemperature change, given inthe 2 9 Fig. 4. Mass balance (accumulation and ablation, directed in oppositional way) vertical profiles for for profiles way) vertical oppositional in directed ablation, and (accumulation balance Mass 4. Fig. a glacier system of northeast Siberia – northern massif of Suntar-Khayata (a) and for Kamchatka – Kamchatka (a) for and Suntar-Khayata of massif –northern Siberia northeast of system a glacier Kluychevskaya Volcano (b). Solid lines – baseline period, dashed line – projection byECHAM4 –projection line dashed period, –baseline lines (b). Solid Volcano Kluychevskaya Projected vertical balance curves Projected balancecurves vertical the glacier elevation difference thetop between of distribution byelevationinthesystem. distribution hypothesis assumptionofprojected ice the baselineperiod. This issocalledlinear zero (at to altitudefromsteps changesinproportion atintermediate elevation ice distribution the highestpointremains unchanged. The where theglacierized area equalszero, and 2069. Their lowest pointcoincideswith under considerationfor 2040– theperiod ice againstaltitudefor theglaciersystems we of obtainedtheprojected distributions H Using theequation: ELA between projected) isequalto theelevationdifference ends =ELA H high p H – ) to 100%(at high p (
H and glacier terminus ( and glacierterminus andELA high –ELA p p ) =2ELA
H (index ends ) relative to p p means – H H H ends high ends 117.08.2011 11:53:23 ). , 7 , . 0 8 . 2 0 1 1
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3 0 Mountains. The entire was glacierization development ofglacier systems ofByrranga We alsoappliedthemethodto projectthe ofthesystem. the centralpart compensated withlesserarea decrease in inupperzones willbe The shrinkage diminish lessthanbythelinearhypothesis. Areas covered withice bythisregularity discussed recently [Ananicheva etal., 2010]. (Fig. 5).More indetailthemethodwas in thestudiedsystems) hasbeenobtained glaciers oftheprevailing morphological type Scandinavian Alpineandtwo glaciers (two repeated 30years after forsurveys four valley asthedifference such between shrinkage oftheice vs altitude. curve Anempirical ofitsicedistribution of glacierinterms altitudinal surveys warming) and after analogy withtheresult ofrepeated (before More realistic thanlinearassumptionisthe 2069) [Ananicheva, 2007]. Krenke, (2040– climatic conditionsofthescenario accumulation volume versus altitudefor the ofprojected ablation/ the distribution accumulation layerand curves to derive systems were Projected iceareas for theglacier Fig. 5. The empirical curve of ice distribution versus altitude as a difference between 30-year surveys surveys 30-year between adifference as altitude versus distribution ice of curve empirical 5.The Fig. multiplied by ablation for four glaciers (two Alpine and two Scandinavian) ECHAM–ECHAM 5 wescenario usedanewgenerationof divided into four systems. As a climatic 1 ofELAupwardthe shift willbe lessinthe Calculation ofprojected changesshowsthat considerably. systems to isfound climate warming to vary widely andthereactionoftheseglacier vary The conditionsofglaciernourishment complexes ofKamchatka. volcano-glacier andspecific Range, glaciers oftheChersky of theOrulganrangeto large dendritic and regime types,from smallcirque glaciers ofmorphology systems withawidespectrum We have usedthisapproach to studyglacier formass balancecharacteristics 2049–60. Asia glaciersystems andtheir Northeastern the areas andmorphological structureof are estimates ofthepossiblechanges The results ofthemethodapplication appropriate. is willdisappearifthisscenario Mountains up to 2060,i.e. theglaciersofByrranga systems to beabove thepeaksoftopography got theprojectionofELAfor eachfour echam5.html http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/modelle/echam/ 1 . As aresult we have 117.08.2011 11:53:23 7 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 1
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3 1 Table 5. Change of glacier systems characteristics in Northeastern Siberia and Kamchatka up to the mid 21st century (2040–2069) The elevation range Ablation and accumulation The shift of Glaciated area, km2, % Balance, cm yr-1 ΔН (from basic of the glacier system, m at the Нela, mm Glacier system ela to projected Basic Projected Basic Projected Basic Projected Basic Projected period), m period period period, km2 period, km2 (%) period period period period
Northeastern Siberia Orulgan Northern Knot 250 750 400 7 2(27) 740 1230 +23 0 Orulgan Southern Knot 500 760 0 12 0 580 0 +14 – Cherskiy –Erikit knot 320 700 200 7 1 (10) 710 1020 +7 0 Cherskiy-Buordakh 300 1640 1280 63 18(29) 700 1050 - 2 –11 Cerskiy-Terentykh 300 1520 1180 28 8 (29) 720 1130 +2 + 6 Suntar-Khayata, North 350 1080 520 111 26(23) 620 850 -26 –70 Suntar-Khayata, South 500 1110 60 22 0.4(2) 460 650 -40 –30 SUM 250 55.4 (22) Kamchatka Sredinny Range Eastern Slope 600 2850 2160 124 24(20) 1430 1460 -44 –170 Sredinny Range Western Slope 570 1900 1330 264 55(21) 1430 1470 +20 –44 Shiveluch Volcano 600 3240 2720 30 16(52) 1160 1080 –36 –50 Kluchevskaya Group 420 3950 3660 124 85(69) 1000 1100 +31 –4 Tolbachek Volcano 580 3085 2680 70 33(47) 1200 1350 +50 +3 Tumrok and Gemchen ranges 430 1020 0 11 0 1710 0 –81 – Khronotskiy Range 510 1150 260 91 9(10) 3350 3800 –48 –116 Valaginskiy Range 610 1000 0 9 0 1400 0 –40 – Volcanows of South-Eastern Kamchatka 300 2660 2340 34 14(41) 1350 1550 –44 –60 Ichinskiy Volcano 740 2080 780 29 6(22) 1510 1550 +17 +3 SUM 786 242(30.8) SUM totally 1036 Ichinskiy Volcano (with account of 1210* 2080 0 29 0 1510 800* +17 – blow-off from the slopes)
117.08.2011 11:53:24 * The projected elevations are higher than the real topography, so the glaciation in these cases will not exist under the scenario used. 7 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 1
1 31 GEOGRAPHY 1 : 5 3 : 2 4 gi311.indd 32
32 GEOGRAPHY . Dzerdzeevskii, B. (1962)Fluctuation ofclimate andofgeneralcirculation oftheatmosphere 9. projections byHadCM2GSDXprojections (minimal We alsotested fourglaciersystems under key 5). (Table 70%oftheirpresent areawill preserve volcano) tops), whileothers(Kluchevskaya above mountainshappens ifELAshifts volcano andothers)systems (it(Ichinsky glacier massifs aswell assome Kamchatka Orulganand Suntar-Khayata of southern calculations alsopredictthedisappearance and dependsonprecipitation rate. Our ELAchangeasaruleisgreater Kamchatka as against500minthesouth),while (230m Siberia ofnortheast parts northern REFERENCES 1 AnanichevaM.D., Davidovich N.V., J-L.Mercier (2003)Climate changeinNorth-East 1. 8. Dolgushin L.D., Dolgushin OsipovaG.B. (1989)Glaciers. Moscow, “Mysl”, 447 pp.8. Gruza G.V., A.(2004)Climate state, changediscovering: variability, Ranjkova andextremity 7. Ananicheva,M.D., glaciation(bytheexampleofNorthEast A.N.(2007)Mountain Krenke 5. 6. Ananicheva, M. D., Krenke A. N., and Barry R.G.(2010) Asia Ananicheva, M.D., mountain A.N.,andBarry The Northeast Krenke 6. Ananicheva,M.D., M.M.(2006)GlacierchangesinSuntar-Khayata G.A.,Koreysha Kapustin 4. D., Mand AnanichevaMaria Michael Koreysha Takahashi Shuhei(2005)Assessment of 3. AnanichevaM.D., line A.N.(2005)Changesofclimaticsnowlineandequilibrium Krenke 2. climatology – Tellus, vol. 14,№3,p. 328–336. Hemisphere andsomeproblems ofdynamic latitudesoftheNorthern in extra-tropical of climate. Meteorology andHydrology, N4, p. 50–66. glaciers inthenearfuture byAOGCM scenarios. 4,p.The Cryosphere, 435–445. Ed.-in-Chief. V.M. Kotlyakov. p. Moscow, 277–293. Nauka, EurasiaintheRecentPastimmediate future. Future. GlaciationinNorth andImmediate In: Chapter andKamchatka). of Siberia Eurasiain “Glaciation andsnowcover inNorth 2001–2003. Dataofglaciologic studies. M,Pub. 101,p. 63–169. oftheUSSRandsatellite from images theGlacierInventory Range andChersky Mountains ofSnowandIce. 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The area ofinterests includesGIS ofPhysical GeographyDepartment andNature Management, State University.Moscow Heisnowascientificresearcher atthe in thenearfuture byAOGCM scenarios. 4,2010 The Cryosphere, A.N.Krenke); Asia mountainglaciers 2008 (co-author The Northeast and related technogenic catastrophes. Vol.3, Part 2.Moscow, IGRAS, Environment In: andClimate Siberia. Change:natural North-Eastern Davidovich N.V.); Evolution oftheglaciological parameters fieldsin recent pastandthenearfuture. M Eurasiainthe GlaciationofNorthern climatic optimum.In: theHolocene Eurasiaduring Glaciation ofmountainsNorthern change, mountainglaciersandpolarregions. publications: Main interests includesglaciology, glacio-climatology, environmental leading researcher ofGeography. oftheRASInstitute The area of Geography, State University. Moscow Atpresent sheisthe Kamchatka). In: Glaciation of Northern Eurasiaintherecent past GlaciationofNorthern In: Kamchatka). Russiaand forecasts. glaciation(for Mountain north-eastern Moscow, AnanichevaM.D.); 2005(co-author Glaciological 96. inXX Siberia eastern century. Dataofglaciological studies, Pub. linealtitudesinthenorth- of climaticsnowlineandequilibrium the USSRterritory. Leningrad, Hydrometeoizdat, 1982;Changes regions. exchange publications:Mass inglaciersystems Main on mountain glaciersandicecaps, aswell astheclimate ofpolar RAS. The area ofinterests isglacio-climatology, climatology, ofClimatology, attheLaboratory works of Geography, Institute Faculty ofGeography, State University. Moscow Atpresent he graduated from theFaculty ofGeography, , P hD, graduated from theFaculty of oscow, Nauka, 2007 (co-author oscow, 2007(co-author Nauka, 17.08.2011 11:53:24
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