Theory and Practice of Individual Snow Avalanche

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64 ENVIRONMENT Tel.: [email protected] +74959392240,e-mail: Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, 1,119991, gory Russia;Leninskie an admissible(10 (>1 •10 avalanche risk (<1 avalanche risk • 10 have anacceptabledegree ofindividual snow oftheterritory parts of theRussianArctic:Major Mountains, oneofthemostindustrialized parts isquantifiedforsnow avalanche risk theKhibiny relatedincluding risk to snowavalanches. Here, information allowsfor theestimationofrisk, resulting lossesisincreasingly needed. Such effects ontheenvironment andpossibly natural hazards, oftheir thecharacteristics information onprobabilistic parameters of danger isnotsufficient.Instead, quantitative thedegreesolely reporting ofavalanche economic losses. However, outthat itturned with theaimto decrease fatalitiesandreduce of snowavalanches dangerwasenhanced Arctic territories. Simultaneously, theevaluation attention to theexploitationofRussian the RussianFederation considerablyincreased 6 5 4 3 2 Aleksandr L.Shnyparkov 1 K. PeterK. Koltermann e-mail: [email protected]: Sciences, Vienna, Austria; Peter-Jordan-Strasse 82,A–1190, Tel.: +431476544373, 119991, Tel.: [email protected] +74959393151,e-mail: Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, 1, gory Russia;Leninskie 184250, Tel.: [email protected] +78153196615,e-mail: Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia;Zheleznodorozhnaya Kirovsk, 10, 119991, Tel.: [email protected] +74959392115,e-mail: Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, 1, gory Russia;Leninskie Corresponding author * 1, 119991, Tel.: [email protected] +74959391861,e-mail: of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, gory Russia;Leninskie ABSTRACT: IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC SNOW AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY AND OF PRACTICE INDIVIDUAL Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, Risk ofMountain Institute University ofNaturalResources andLife ofsnow avalanches anddebrisflows, HeadoftheLaboratory Faculty of Research scientist,Khibiny educationalandscientificbase, Faculty ofGeography, ofsnow avalanches Research anddebrisflows, scientist,Laboratory Faculty of ofNaturalRisk HeadoftheLaboratory research ofsnow Senior avalanches anddebrisflows, scientist,Laboratory Faculty –4 ) degree ofindividualsnowavalanche In recent years,In theGovernmentof –4 –10 –6 ). with The territories 4 –6 , Yury G.Seliverstov ) or unacceptable ) orunacceptable 1 , Sven Fuchs Assessment, Faculty ofGeography, 2 , Sergey A.Sokratov 5 Throughout Russia,thehighestdegree of (Fig. regionthe Magadan andChukotka 1). Putorana Plateau, mountain areas of Yakutia, Peninsula, Mountains, the theByrranga atKola Mountains include: theKhibiny regions endangered bysnowavalanches components oftheenvironment, the snow cover isoneofthemostimportant theRussianArctic, whereIn seasonal Mountains, snowavalanches individual snowavalanches risk. with anadmissibleorunacceptabledegree of some trafficinfrastructure islocated invalleys Moreover, dueto anincrease inwinter tourism, aresettlements andminingindustries situated. where Mountains the SoutheastofKhibiny (0,5and2%ofthetotal area)risk correspond to INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS: , MarinaA. Vikulina Arctic, concept of risk, Khibiny Khibiny Arctic, conceptofrisk, 3* , 6 50.029:23:13 9:23:13 25.09.2012 ggi312.indd 65 i 3 1 2 . i n d d

6 5

Fig. 1. The map of the Arctic snow avalanches regions in Russia [Myagkov & Kanaev, 1992]. The degree of avalanche danger: 225.09.2012 9:23:13

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6 6 during the1930 during avalanches, theywere entirely unprepared threads ofnaturalhazards, mainlyofsnow The developers immediately facedthe almost unsettledarea afew during years. area. appeared inapreviously The industry inthis ofnationwide importance industry mining to establish anapatite–nepheline in1929,whenadecisionwasmade started The development Mountains intheKhibiny development andinnaturalhazard activity. documented dynamicsbothinindustrial well-unique becauseofthelong-term The region is Mountains oftheKhininy highly developed Arctic territories. economic pointofviewtheseregions are region.Magadan Atthesametime, from an andsomeareas Mountains inthe Khibiny snow avalanche dangerisestimated for the of snowavalanches atthesamesites during accumulation. Numerous natural releases for changesintheconditions ofsnow avalanche formation zones are responsible changes ofrelief including thoseinthe polar night).Moreover, anthropogenic Arctic climate conditions(intensive blizzards, Mountains. Bothare bythe determined also have theiruniquefeatures intheKhibiny formation andtheavalanche site distribution course, theprocessesOf ofsnowavalanche development oftheconceptionrisk. “laboratory” for assessmentandfor risk further these changes, natural theregion isaperfect Dueto isremarkable. industry the tourism appear. Simultaneously, thedevelopment of abandoned, newminesinotherlocations the entire corresponding infrastructureare of theterritory. While someoldmineswith complexchangesthetopographyindustrial complexes. andalpineski as tourism The residentialand pittype, buildings, aswell lines, –bothopen miningmanufactures roads andrailroads, power pipelines, electric facilities canbefound in theregion, including ofinfrastructure alltypes 2012,practically In world-wide. services warning established, oneoftheoldestavalanche Centre ofAvalanche Safety JSC “Apatit” was s . After severe. After losses, the 1300 km isabout The area Mountains oftheKhibiny inany otherterritory.ment activities forof theconceptrisk planningdevelop- adaptations withrespectto further importance development, andwould beofconsiderable in theArcticregion explorationand canbecomeabaseforof risk considerations risk oftherecentlyframework accepted concept of alltheseuniquefeatures withintheoverall However, analysis withoutdoubts, in-depth of thismountainregion. Avalanche Control arecharacteristic atypical snow avalanche releases asaresult ofActive one winter season,andscheduledartificial * Not synonymic in Russian geomorphological literature. geomorphological Russian in synonymic * Not foothills to –4,9°Cat Mountains oftheKhibiny temperature decreases from –0,5°C inthe weather.of anticyclonic The meanannual withperiods of intensive activity cyclonic Peninsula are byalternation determined The winter weather conditionsattheKola mountain slopesare 400–700m. with inclinationofabout30°. The heightsof valleys are rectilinear orslightlyconcave on theleeward slopes. The slopesofthe snow accumulation andextra snow cornices snowtransfer andformationwind-driven of inclined, whichisfavourable for intensive The tops are usuallyflattened orslightly top isMt. Yudychvmchorr (1200,6ma.s.l.). are 1200ma.s.l.Mountais nearly The highest The absolute altitudesoftheKhibiny highest altitudinalzone. Cirques andcorries* Quite commonare nonsegmented slopes. and erosional cutscomplicate theslopes. Kanaev, 1992].Numerous denudationcraters & formed amongtectonic faults[Myagkov single massifwithflattop, dividedbyvalleys of anintrusionthenephelinesyenite –the represent Mountains Khibiny atectonic rise of themassifisapproximately 40km. The IN THE KHIBINY MOUNTAINS NATURAL CONDITIONS 2 andthecross-sectiondimension 1 can befound atthe 225.09.2012 9:23:13 5 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 2

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from 1,6ms meanwindspeedchanges The long-term of South(27%)and West (9%)directions. aremountain plateaus. thewinds Others (31%)directions prevail onthe and North over wholetheyear. Winds ofEast(33%) byintensive activity is characterized cyclonic The windregime Mountains oftheKhibiny precipitation amount. which represents theannualmaximumin increases upto andincludingSeptember, more from February tillApril–May, andthen andJanuary, decreasesin December even monthly precipitation amountdecreases of awinter (October–November). The precipitations placeinthebeginning take irregular. The maximalcoldseasonmonthly The coldseasons’ regime ofprecipitation is from annual, whilebelowitislessthe50%. At altitudesabove 300mitismore than50% ofthisalsodependsonaltitude. season part in therangeof1461to 640mm. The cold precipitation dependsonaltitudeandis The meantotal annualamountof winter seasons.during in January–February. Thawing canhappen were Mountains station inKhibiny registered temperatures atallthemeteorological found from November to April. The minimal the tops. Stabletemperatures below0°Care days with blizzards is changing from 154 days days withblizzards ischanging from 154days season here. of The meanannualquantity featuresare thecharacteristic ofthecold Mountains. Strong andprolonged blizzards snow avalanches formation intheKhibiny regime. They are inthe theleading factor The blizzards to are thewind linked directly 2000]. to 80ms reported upto 48ms reported speed ofgustsintheregion ofKirovsk was Lovchorr plateau [Zyuzin,2006]. The wind increases withaltitude–itis35–40%atthe 20% ofwindydays inKirovsk. The gustiness strong gusts. The gusts are recorded in regime byfrequent ischaracterized and “Tsentral’naya” weather stations. The wind 60 ms 6 7 –1 atthe Yukspor plateau andwasup –1 attheLovchorr plateau [Mokrov, –1 at “Vostochnaya” to 6ms –1 , itwasexceeding –1 at at consequences. while the “risk” istheprobabilityofsuch and theireffects presented insomeunits, as theweighted consequencesofprocesses the distinction, “damage” canbeinterpreted “damage” were considered often asequal. For Russia. Notlongago, theterms “risk” and and environmental scientificliterature in The term “risk” life israthernewinordinary variability. depth over time, withhighinter-annual increase ofthewinter maximalsnowcover be interpreted asrepresenting aslight scientific baseoftheMSU. The datacan educational- station oftheKhibiny snow cover depthatthemeteorological Figure 3showsthedynamicsofmaximal (Fig.variability 2). transfer andhashighspatial andtemporal snow under theinfluenceofwind-driven formed intheconditionsofsegmented relief is Mountains The snowcover intheKhibiny 200–300 ma.s.l. the bottoms ofvalleyswith thealtitudes altitudes upto 1200ma.s.l. to 86days in at theflattened tops ofmountainswiththe THE CONCEPT OF RISK maximal snow depth in the Khibiny Mountains Mountains Khibiny the in depth snow maximal Fig. 2. The map of the distribution of the mean mean the of distribution the of map The 2. Fig. [Kontsevaya et al., 1989] map): (55 ×45km al., et [Kontsevaya 1 – >400 cm; 2 – 200–400 cm; 3–100–200 cm; cm; 2–200–400 1 –>400 4 –<100 cm 225.09.2012 9:23:14 5 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 2

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6 8 Beck [1992]. He characterized the modern themodern Beck [1992].Hecharacterized may betracedbackto ofrisk determination The institutionalapproach inthe etal.,event [Kovalev 1991],etc. the probabilityofoccurrence ofundesirable &Shnyparkov, 1997;Myagkov 2004], Murzin, ofadecreaseterms & inlife time[Bykov in2004]; themathematicalexpectation &Shnyparkov, 1997;Myagkov & Murzin, event multiplied byitsconsequences[Bykov illness, accident,catastrophe, probability of losses, theprobability ofevents –death, of 1995b]; themathematicalexpectation [Porfir’ev, intensity certain 1991;Myagkov, al., 1999];therepeatability ofevents with undesirable (negative) results [Osipovet. 1999]; thepotential dangerofobtaining 1995;Osipovet.al.,appearance [Ragozin, among them:theprobabilityofdanger characteristics. The following canbenoted scientific literature isrelated to statistical The mostprominent in definitionof risk and social-psychological (behavioural). can beallocated: statistical, institutional Three approaches to the “risk” definition Fig. 3. The winter maximal snow cover depth at the meteorological station of the Khibiny educatio- Khibiny the of station meteorological the at depth cover snow maximal winter The 3. Fig. nal-scientific base of the MSU in 1984–2012 in MSU the of base nal-scientific details byPorfir’ev [1991] group ofpersons. wasstudiedin This aspect accepted decisionsbya result ofcertain definition wasinterpreted inRussiaasa asa society society”“Risk andhis “risk” thus making the thus making “snow avalanche risk” to be of anundesirableconsequence ofahazard, is theprobability as accepted bymajorities term. the risk The Russian definitionof “risk” common definitionandunderstanding of recent whenscientistscameto a isvery It ethnic experience. byinherentas determined perception and consider attitudeto naturalandotherrisks etal., 2003]. al., 1997;Myagkov These works was raised[Myagkov, 1995a; Vashchalova et cultural differences in theattitudeto risk of the20 1976;Al’gin, 1989].At the end [White, risk relation ofapersonorgroup ofpersonsto Socio-psychologists note thespecificof [Bratus’, 1984]. 1976;Oigenzikht, similar definitioniswidelyusedinjurisdiction situations.management inemergency The th century the challengeofethno- century during the during analysisof 225.09.2012 9:23:14 5 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 2

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hazard and consequences at a certain site hazard andconsequences atacertain system, resulting from theconvolution of Thus, isthepotential lossto risk theexposed may materializewhich therisk [Renn,2008b]. in occurrence; and(3)aspecificcontext of what humansvalue;(2)thelikelihood (1) outcomes thathave upon animpact therefore,of risk, containsthree elements: and quantifiedbynumbers. The definition to thesesettings belinked effects canclearly oncetheadverse in theconceptofrisk, a specificallydefinedhazard setting, results thus funnellingdownthelatent dangerof 1995b; Fuchs, 2009]. Following thelatter and oftime[Myagkov,and aspecifiedperiod of agiven magnitude inaspecifiedlocation ofoccurrence orprobability by alikelihood ofoccurrence anddescribed by likelihood the threatening state orcondition,indicated thatispotentially damaging; and(2) activity thereby exist:(1)thephysical process or as ahazard, different whiletwo meanings undesirable states ofrealityare referred to that have thepotential about to bring Technically, theseprocesses andsituations state ofthestudiedsystem [Renn,2008b]. this conceptisdirected towards thefuture an event andtheconsequences. Therefore, of thetrigger between causal connections This inherently impliesthatpeopledo make whenitwillrealize itspotential. uncertainty adverse to occurisappreciated, there is Although thepotential for something [Seliverstov etal.,valued bymankind 2008]. thus adverse effects to thoseattributes to damage, loss, orsimilarnegative and 1983]. Undesirablestates ofrealityare linked &Kasperson, [Kates or humanactivities reality may occurasaresult ofnaturalevents thatanundesirablestate of the likelihood common denominator thecombinationof existsthatshow,term aslowest nevertheless, broad rangeofconceptualizationsthe actors.as well Consequently, aspractical a of many scientificandprofessional disciplines Around theworld, hasbeenafocal risk topic and industry. of theeffects ofsnowavalanches onsociety the probabilityofundesirableconsequences 6 9 occurrence ofahazard ( scenario oftheprobability quantifying function to naturalhazards isconceptualized bya equation (Equation1),whichwithrespect relationship isregularly expressed bytherisk ofnaturalsciences,the perspective this oftime. period In acertain and during ( by the individual value of objects by theindividualvalueofobjects damage [e.g., Fuchs, 2009],andspecified of andtheirextent by theelementsatrisk quantified The consequencescanbefurther ( related exposed consequencesonobjects exposure ( R    cf. Renn[2008a]: Adams, 1995]dueto thefollowing reasons, the socialsciences’ side[Freudenburg, 1988; from criticism certain analysis hasattracted thistechnical conceptofrisk Nevertheless, Kunreuther, 2003]. analyses [e.g., 1996;Freeman Schwarz, & analyses [e.g., Schneider, 1991]andactuarial and hasitsroots inbothtechnical risk forframework probabilistic assessment risk providesThis quantitative definitionofrisk the on scenario R (Equation 2). A c

i, j i, j Oj Oj = = actual risk [Short, 1984]; [Short, risk actual failures anddeficitsthatmay increase the controlling isprone risks to organizational ofmanagingThe institutionalstructure and et al., 1982;Zinn& Taylor-Gooby, 2006]; analysesarerisk ableto capture [Fischhoff average probabilities usedintechnical and consequencesare more complexthan humanactivities between The interactions equationaccordingly; technical risk preferences, whichisnotmirrored bythe effect isrelated to theirvaluesand What peopleperceive asanundesirable ): ), therelated independence vulnerability f f ( ( p p Si Si , , A c Oj p Oj ). (1) Oj , v i , ( v Si Oj, Oj ) of objects ) ofobjects

, Si Si , p ), andtheprobabilityof Oj,

Si ). (2) j to scenario to scenario p Si ) andthe j at risk atrisk 225.09.2012 9:23:15 i

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7 0   materials, aswell asmissingpreparedness inappropriate buildingtechniques and land use, improper development planning, adaptation to nature, suchasmisdirected hazards isthustheresult ofbadorfalse physical laws. Any damagedueto natural process operatinginnature isonlybasedon nature [e.g., Wisner etal., 2004]sinceany disaster is causedbyhumansandnot andconsequently any form ofnatural risk, argued thatany naturalhazard andresulting hazard community. hasbeenrepeatedly It ted equivalentresults withinthegeogra phic These findingsfrom socialsciencesstimu la- 

Risk analysescannotberegardedRisk asan The numerical combination of magnitude, combinationofmagnitude, The numerical and interpreted; arein howrisks characterized, measured, [Fischhoff, 1995]andvaluesare reflected scientificactivity objective, value-free Technical analysescanprovide risk only the other[Slovic, 1987]; preferencespeople showdistinct for oneor high-probability events ismade, whereas andlow-consequence/ low-probability no difference high-consequence/ between exposed.the elementsatrisk Consequently, equal weight for thehazard componentand andconsequencesassumes frequency [Slovic etal., 1982;Slovic, 1987]. withthehazard andsoon familiarity to influencetherisk, personal ability ofvoluntariness, includingaspects of risk much more comprehensive conception revealed thatmostindividualshave a perception,on risk instead, have clearly & Stallen,1981;Slovic, 1987].Studies perceptions risk biases thatgovern [Vlek and ofheuristics and identifiedaseries ofindividualperceptionpatterns ofrisk researchers investigated theunderlying cognitive psychologists and decision [Cullen &Small, 2004].Moreover, oftheprobabilitydistribution the variance different degrees dependingupon ofrisk Each individual, however, may face the populationandlong-timeduration. aggregate dataover larger segments of tion of passive mitiga- with respectto theso-called arguments are alsousedbynaturalscientists [Dombrowsky,concerned 2002],these and insufficientawareness ofthepeople [2009]. etal. [2004]andFuchsoutlined inKienholz isbasedongeneralideas natural hazard risk, tocurrently manage inusealpinecountries process areas. as The overall conceptofrisk, (local)analysesof individual on large-scale by Fuchs etal. [2008]andothersfocusing scale (regional) analyses;andmore recently etal.and Keiler [2004]withrespectto small- refinedwere byBollingeretal. [2000] further 1994]. school [Kienholz, These approaches essential inputsoriginate from theBerne this, inalpinecountries, namely inSwitzerland, to viewpoint. Complementary international an issuesinabroaderrisk senseandtaking in Fell etal. [2008]focusing onlandslide of naturalhazard managementare risk given to development thehistorical contributions With respect to mountainhazards, major relationship (Equation2). as afunctional where allparameters neededare combined point ofview, mirrored equation, intherisk analyses andevaluationis, from a technical fromshift hazard andvulnerability to risk focus ofresearch [Fuchs etal., 2007]. This emerged asa conceptincreasingly inthe years, theassessmentofvulnerability whileinrecenttowards theconceptofrisk, developed approaches hadbeenfurther hazard assessment[Schuster, 1978]. These gravitational dynamics, isrooted in of naturalevents, above alltriggered by of view, dealingwithundesired outcomes fromNevertheless, anaturalsciencespoint paradigm [Cutter, 2001]. analysis andthedevelopment oftherisk asthebeginningrisk ofquantitative risk onsocialbenefitversus technological article scientistspointto Starr’sMost [1969]seminal geographic) research onnaturalhazard risk. pointofany (andthereforestarting also physical environment, whichisafundamental andthe society between in theinteraction 2009]. Obviously, isrooted theconceptofrisk natural hazard [e.g., risk Holub&F uchs, 225.09.2012 9:23:16 5 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 2

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(2) thequantitative estimationofprincipal oftheevent; and as suchthefrequency processes, i.e. and therecurrence interval occurrence ofthestudied probability oftheincludes: (1)thedetermination The quantitative process characterization volumes available for displacement. andpossible including location,spatialextent ofeachprocessextent will beidentified, will beclassifiable. Additionally, thephysical of potential processes underconsideration into aGISenvironment. As aresult, thetypes analoguehazardhow to convert information etal.2010]. Keiler [2004]present amethodof analysis procedures [Mazzorana&Fuchs, are therefore increasingly includedinhazard information available [Fuchs etal., 2001]and judgment, provide often theonly as expert aswell localexperience knowledge, a priori approaches,2008]. Suchheuristic basedon & Krummenacher, 1995;Seliverstov etal., newspapers, chronicles, etc., seeKienholz maintenance records, photographs, aerial topography, geologyandclimate [e.g. from on processes insimilarlocations, mapping, information ofhistoric gathering to identifyhazards includegeomorphological Fell etal., 2008].Methods, whichmay beused and vegetation cover [e.g., Shnyparkov, 2004; geology, failure mechanics, climate conditions geomorphology,between hydrogeology, process i.e. characteristics, therelationship mechanismsinrelationship totriggering the processes requires anunderstandingof The qualitative identificationofhazard analyses.numerical prediction analyses, andprocess-based analysis ofprocess parameters, probabilistic quantitative methodsincludethestatistical documentation andothersources, while models includetheanalysisofevent 2005; Fuchs etal., 2008]. Thereby, qualitative etal., occurrence andmagnitude [Vilchek ofof theircorresponding frequency processes together withanevaluation is to potential identify andcharacterize ofhazardThe mainobjective analysis RISK ANALYSIS 7 1 natural processes andphenomena, are dangerous with various evaluation connected assessmentandpossibledamage of risk developing methodologies and techniques Integrated investigations, aimedat scales [Fuchs etal., 2004;Shnyparkov, 2004]. hazard analysesonafederal andregional quantitative methodsare widelyappliedfor events inamore comprehensible style. Thus, and/or classificationsofdifferent process quantitative approaches draw comparisons contrasttoanalysis. qualitative methods, In analysis; and(2)process-based andnumerical (1) statisticalandprobabilistic prediction differenttwo approaches [Fuchs etal., 2008]: processescharacterize canbedividedinto reliable indication.Quantitative methodsto on pastprocess magnitudes themost isoften gathered)(heuristically information available nor statisticalanalyses[Fuchs etal., 2008]. The ofacatchmenton physical characteristics probability ofoccurrence sofar, neitherbased assessment for ofanexact thedetermination are norigorous methodsthatallowastrict catchment, there occurrence inaparticular to proposeofprocessefforts thelikelihood a setofcalculations. Despiteconsiderable define theprobabilityvalueto beusedin Therefore to explicitly itisnecessary assessment [Mazzorana&Fuchs, 2010]. ofthehazard in considerableuncertainties be usedasaproxy instead, whichresults inthedepositionarea will run-out during tothe probability reach adefinedpoint ofmeteorologicalinterval phenomena)or mechanism(e.g.,main triggering recurrence 2005]. Consequently, theprobabilityof effect [Fuchs 2005; &McAlpin, Vilchek etal., causeand from between thecomplexity to alack ofmeasurement dataresulting event notquantifiabledue itselfisoften mountain hazards, ofthe theprobability may beused. However, to with respect of anevent, several probability concepts order al., thefrequency to 2008].In describe out length,anddepositionarea [Fuchs et assessment, i.e. theprocess magnitude, run- process parameters neededfor hazard RISK ASSESSMENT 225.09.2012 9:23:16 5 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 2

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7 2 can beexpressed byuseofdifferent indices: area [Myagkov, 1995b]. certain These losses over oftimeinthe adefiniteimpact period lossescausedbysnowavalanche various Avalanche risk evaluation by Yolkin [2004]. suggested andalready tested risk for karst elaborated onthebasisofmethodology an exampleofwideruse, ispresented. was It assessment for large mountainregions, as paper amethodofindividualavalanche risk inthis irrespective ofthehazard orrisk, consistent methodologyofgeneraluse, etc. of transportation, To encouragea protected systems –roads, railways, means tourists, aswell asfor many of categories local population,migrating peopleand estimationsfor and allowto getnecessary techniques canbeusedindifferent scales State University). These methodologies and of Geography, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow (Faculty Assessment Laboratory Natural Risk oftheresearch activity also part a longtime. More recently theybecome of SnowAvalanches Flows andDebris for intheResearchbeing conducted Laboratory     Seliverstov, 1992]. Thematic maps compiled oflosses[Molotkov,the probability 1992; whichdetermine characteristics, activity parameters, aswell asanumberofavalanche social andeconomicaccount various Possible into damageevaluationtakes 

Annual numberoffatalities; Probability ofdeceaseanindividual Probable damagemagnitude; staying there temporarily; within thegiven area or permanently groupfrom ofpeopleliving theparticular Probable ofdestroyed proportion Probable costsofforced stoppage constructions; and damagedbuildingsother result ofavalanche activity. systems asa emerged intransportation includestheprobabilityof location withinthedangerous territory: of stay ofanindividualandhispossible oftheduration isestimated asafunction It hazard areas the average during day andyear. of exposure) ofanindividualinavalanche index definesthedurationofstay (time values are applied: investigation. thefollowing thisproject In human settlementsandroads inareas under mainly dueto thepresence orabsenceof evaluationandgeneralization basis ofexpert year. The valuesof one during within thedangerous territory localindividual duration ofstay ofatypical where territory during oneday, during territory localindividualwithinthedangeroustypical The valuesof    This is a function ofadegreeThis isafunction inwhich Population vulnerability inspace number ofdays). (the duration ofavalanche dangerperiod

Population vulnerability intime following parameters were made: all grid cellssubsequentcalculationsofthe To indicesfor getthevaluesofavalanche risk estimation. onthemapappliedasabasisfor 3 km (grid cells),eachsideofwhichequalled investigation were squares dividedinto exact the helpofGISMapInfo. Allareas under information. Calculationswere madewith sourcethe principal ofsnowandavalanche Geography [Kotlyakov, 1997]were usedas by researchers oftheMSUFaculty of V

t equal to 1hour. settlements, there areIf noroads andhuman If there areIf any humansettlements, min; there areIf someroads, =× 4365 24 t d t d

is theaverage durationofstay ofa t y , (3) t t y d correspond to theannual isequalto 1sec; t d were estimated onthe t y istheaverage t d isequalto 1 ( v t ):

225.09.2012 9:23:16 This t ( 5 d V . is 0 s 9 ): . 2 0 1 2

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V where the territory underinvestigation, the territory ofnaturaldisaster)to within theimpact snow avalanches: of isexposedto theimpact a territory distinguished on avalanche risk maps.distinguished onavalanche risk Values different levels are ofindividual avalanche risk [Vorob’ev, 2005],three ofzones with types Situations ofEmergency Russian Ministry Following therecommendations ofthe total populationofthegiven area ( onthe by dividingthecomplete socialrisk ofoneyear.period This indexiscalculated underinvestigation forthe territory individual from somegroup ofpeoplewithin of fatalaccidentledto thedeathofan where Individual avalanche risk result ofanavalanche impact. shows theannualnumberoffatalitiesas in thearea underinvestigation. This index avalanches, R density: space, andpopulation avalanche frequency intimeand of thepopulationvulnerability of fatalaccidentsamongpeopleisafunction Complete social(collective) avalanche risk used. different underinvestigation territories were both hypsometric andlandscapemapsof valuesoftheindex particular determine proved [1991]. byBlagoveshchenskii To height, relative heightandlandscapetype, avalanches andsuchparameters asabsolute to snow ofaterritory the susceptibility a closecorrelation, existingbetween figures were calculated onthebasisof difficult task. That iswhy thecorresponding estimation ofthisindexpresents arather total area ofthegiven territory. Small-scale 7 R 3 col s ind = = = S S F y t R p S × , (4) f y F isthearea ofahazard zone (exposed . (6) . is the recurrence interval of istherecurrence interval d × d V is the density ofpopulation isthedensity t × V s , (5) ( R ind ) istheprobability p S ): t isthe ( R col ) less than1 • 10 characterize characterize acceptable level. Values more than1 • 10 lower indicesto individualavalanche the risk scale avalanche control programs, whichmay is possibleonlyincombinationwithlarge- erection ofbuildingsandotherconstructions outandthe population mustbecarried avalanche protection measures for the admissible 1 •10 be erected withoutrestriction. Values from can new buildingsandotherconstructions measures for thepopulationare neededand areas, where nospecialavalanche protection [Akkuratov, 1972]* (classification by “cause offormation” ofsnowavalanchesPractically allthetypes to April. from50%) happenintheperiod February snow avalanches releases (slightlymore than inJune. of while thelastwere Most observed releases even were inSeptember, observed May. someyears thefirstsnowavalanches In are andcontinueupto noted inOctober Normally, thereleases ofsnowavalanches immediately thefirstsnowfalls. after is 240days. causawere reported The mortis Mountains endangered intheKhibiny period average,In thedurationofanavalanche- population andto lower thelevel ofrisk. to protect the andcompulsory necessary a wholesetofavalanche control measures is and for existingsystems anddeveloped lands projects are no newconstruction permitted including the International one. International the including classifications, other of existence on awareness with Russia and USSR in years dozen several over used widely most one, *The ofsnowavalancherepeatability releases is fromthis numbervaries 22to 71days. The avalanches From are observed. year to year average, there are snow 44days whenactual period, in theavalanche-endangered During 80% ofthetotal numberofsnowavalanches). by theavalanches causedby blizzards (about Mountains. Khibiny ispresented The majority AND RISK IN THE KHIBINY MOUNTAINS AVALANCHE ACTIVITY –6 to 1 • 10 risk areas, risk where considerable unacceptable –4 –6 define the boundaries of definetheboundaries indicate 2 ) can take placeinthe ) cantake risk areas, risk where acceptable risk –4 225.09.2012 9:23:16

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7 4 i.e. more than2avalanches peryear. There the Centre ofAvalanche Safety JSC “Apatit”, by from 50avalanche catchments observed average,high. In 107avalanches are released Fig. 5. The quantity of fatalities caused by snow avalanches in the Khibiny Mountains during the the during Mountains Khibiny the in avalanches by snow caused fatalities of quantity 5.The Fig. period of registering by the Centre of Avalanche Safety JSC “Apatit” (1935–recent): (1935–recent): “Apatit” JSC Safety Avalanche of Centre bythe registering of period Fig. 4. The degree of snow avalanche activity: activity: avalanche snow of degree The 4. Fig. Blue – local people; Red –visitors Red of theregion people; –local Blue 1 –low;2medium; 3–high Mountains also vary inawiderange:from alsovary Mountains volumes ofsnowavalanches intheKhibiny from someavalanche catchments. The can bemore than10avalanches perseason 225.09.2012 9:23:17 5 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 2

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m a few thousandsupto hundreds thousands as 1125thousandm wasreported of instrumentalobservations the variability ishigh(Fig.the variability 6).Figure 6also in anyof risk Athigherresolution direction. canmove thetotal degreeavalanche activity any considerablechangesinpopulationor acceptableandunacceptable.between Thus, to themiddleofscale[Vorob’ev, 2005] degree ofindividualsnowavalanche risk for wholethearea is6,3 • 10 implemented individualsnowavalanche risk people intheregion as34000,theaverage 5. Taking of meanquantity thelong-term 164. Their dynamicsare presented inFigure is Mountains snow avalanches intheKhibiny Avalanche Safety JSC “Apatit” causedby from the1930 The total amountofregistered fatalities (Fig.of snowavalanche activity 4). corresponds to ahighandmediumdegree most oftheregion Mountains oftheKhibiny 2009], of avalanches perseason[Vikulina, ofthalweg againsttherepeatability per km ofavalanche paths on thebaseofquantity According to theclassification,constructed 7 5 3 . theperiod The maximalvolume during s Fig. 6. The individual snow avalanche risk in the Khibiny Mountains to 2012 bytheCentre of 3 . –5 . This putthe (Fig. 6). The areas withadmissible(10 degree ofindividualsnowavalanches risk Situations [Vorob’ev,of Emergency 2005], recommendations oftheRussianMinistry to acceptable(<1 • 10 corresponds the mostofanalysedterritory allowed to Mountains concludethat Khibiny The presented inthe assessmentofrisk above. bythemethoddescribed Mountains Khibiny estimationforsnow avalanches risk the Figure 6showstheresults oftheindividual tourists. –from thelocalstovictims thevisiting ofthesnowavalanches of themajority changeinthecategory shows theon-going the valleys of the rivers Kukisvumchorr and the valleysofrivers Kukisvumchorr areindividual snowavalanche risk situated in admissible andunacceptabledegree of situated. Additionally, with theterritories andsettlementsare where mostofindustry at theSoutheastofmountainmassif, respectively) are situated of thetotal territory (0,5and2% individual snowavalanche risk and unacceptable(>1 • 10 CONCLUSIONS –6 ), according to the –4 ) degrees of –4 –10 –6 225.09.2012 9:23:18 ) 5 . 0 9 . 2 0 1 2

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7 6 10. Cutter,10. S.(2001). The changing nature andhazards. ofrisks hazardscapes. American S.Cut- risk: Cullen,9. A.,Small,The role M.(2004).Uncertain andlimitsofquantitative assessment. Bykov, N.V. A.A.,Murzin, (1997).Problems inanalysisofthesafety ofhumans,and society 8. 7. Bratus’, outlineoftheory. Moscow: Yuridicheskaya S.N.(1976).Legal andlegality: liability Bollinger, 6. D., H.,della Buri, Valle, H.,Krummenacher, G.,Hegg, H.R.,Kienholz, C., Keusen, B., Blagoveshchensky, V.P.5. ofavalanche loads. (1991).Determination Alma-Ata:Gylym.116p. 4. social U. Questionsofsurvival, Beck, (1992)From society: to therisk society industrial Al’gin, 3. A.P. Mysl’. anditsrole insociallife. (1989).Risk Moscow: 192p. 2. Akkuratov, V.N. Mountains. (1972).Snowavalanches Cand. intheKhibiny Sci.thesis. Adams, London: J. Routledge. 1. 228p. (1995).Risk. Mountains cannot be eliminated. It can be canbe cannotbeeliminated.Mountains It of peopleto snowavalanches intheKhibiny Thus, thespatialandtemporal vulnerability mitigation measures canhardly beexpected. the 100%protection ofpeoplebytechnical in Active Avalanche Control. Dueto highcost, of100%success does notallowexpectation timeperiods, which avalanche-endangered the slopesduring the avalanches-endangered complete ofthepeopleaccessto termination forecast alsoappliesto isimpossible. It 100% justificationofthesnowavalanche by Figure 6.However, atpresent timethe without doubts, presented changethepattern will, development oftheterritory The further (Fig.risk 6). with thehighestindividualsnowavalanches (Fig. 4)are notthesameasterritories withthehighestavalanche activity territories andwinter tourists. resorts railroads, ski The avalanches isto miningindustry, motor and routes are. Thus, themainthreat from snow where mostpopularwinter touristic Kuniiok, REFERENCES ter, Ed. Washington: Press, JosephHenry p. 1–12. M. Small, Press, University Eds. Cambridge Cambridge: ofthefield. characterization Aninterdisciplinary T. analysisandsociety: Risk McDaniels, Nature. Sankt-Petersburg: 247p. Nauka. literatura. 214p. Symposion Interpraevent, Villach. P.,Mani, 1:25000.Internationales Bern desKantons Roth,H.(2000).Gefahrenhinweiskarte structure andecological enlightenment. Theory, Culture &Society, 9(1),p. 97–123. State University. Moscow Kirovsk: 124p. (inRussian). under grant agreement No262693. Community’s Seventh Framework Programme fundingfromreceived theEuropean partial The research leadingto theseresults has prepared to receive insafety. there, andwhichthearea isnotcompletely not always prepared to naturalconditionsin visitors tobrings adeveloping area, whichare simplification oftheaccessto asite inevitably 51935atFigurefatalities atDecember 5),but of buildingindangerous sites (the89 ofdisastrousinpositioning victims mistakes facilitiesshouldnotbecome new industrial other regions intheRussianArctic. Notonly planning ofthefuture development of shouldbeaccounted forMountains inthe from experience The long-term theKhibiny and visitors. measures andbyeducationoflocalpeople decreased byeffective avalanche-protective ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

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8 0 cities ofRussia(2007,withco-authors). sokratov/. research. Listofpublications isavailable at:http://istina.imec.msu.ru/accounts/profile/ Geography. research His interest ofsnowandcover includesallpossible aspects Davos, Switzerland. Recently heisSeniorResearch Scientist attheMSUFaculty of Snow, andLandscapeResearch /SwissFederal for Institute SnowandAvalanche Research, www.sven-fuchs.de/links/publikat.html.link: andtheRussianFederation.Africa, The listofpublicationscanbeaccessedbyfollowing this extensive research inmountainregions experiences ofEurope, SoutheastAsia, Central analyses, andgeomorphology.vulnerability human-environment interaction, Hehas Sergey A.Sokratov Sergey Sven Fuchs Shnyparkov AlexandrL. flows risk in Russia (2009, with co-authors); Natural risk for Naturalrisk the inRussia(2009,withco-authors); flows risk Debris ofRussia(2011,withco-authors); attheterritory century Colorado atBoulder, U.S.A.; SwissFederal for Institute Forest, Data Center and World DataCenter for Glaciology, of University Research inEnvironmental Sciences/NationalSnowandIce Shinjo, Japan;Graduate SchoolandtheCooperative for Institute ScienceandDisaster Prevention,Research for Institute Earth ofLowInstitute Temperature Sciences, Sapporo, andNational ofGeography inInstitute RAS; obtained in1998.Hewasworking PhD. (landhydrology, water resources andhydrochemistry), University, Sapporo,obtained in1997atHokkaido Japan and Sciences) ofEnvironmental1988. HeholdsaPhD (Doctor Earth Faculty ofGeography, State University, Moscow andgraduated in managementforassessment andrisk mountain hazards, and Life Sciencesin researchVienna, Austria. His includesrisk he isAssistant Professor ofNaturalResources attheUniversity in mountainregions.human-environment interaction Currently (venia docendifor Geography, 2010) for related hisworks to Avalanche Research SLFinDavos, Switzerland;andaHabilitation appointment attheSwissFederal for Institute Snowand afour during years undertaken studies onsnowavalanche risk 2000 (MSc).HeholdsaPhD obtainedin2004for hisspatiotemporal (Austria) andgraduatedof Munich(Germany) andInnsbruck in situations ofNaturalorigin attheendofXX –beginning ofXXI publications: ofemergency The analysisofthedistribution focuses onNaturalhazards, assessment. Main dangerandrisk Laboratory. Hereceived hisPh. D. degree research in1991.His Lomonosov State University, Moscow recently astheHeadof Snow Avalanches Flows, andDebris Faculty ofGeography, of intheResearch Laboratory in 1980.Since1980heisworking Geography, Lomonosov State andgraduated University Moscow studiedGeography andGeologyattheUniversities studied glaciology and geocryology atthe studiedglaciologyandgeocryology studiedglaciologyattheFaculty of 225.09.2012 9:23:19 5 . 0 st 9

. 2 0 1 2

9 : 2 3 : 1 9 i1.nd81 81 gi312.indd technologies Chernous, P. (2007,co-author A.). programme. Faculty ofGeography, State University, Moscow establishedundertheRussianMega-grant atthe 2010heistheLeadingDecember Assessment Laboratory ScientistoftheNaturalRisk in Paris from systems inalloceans. warning 2006–2010 to establishtsunamiearly Since he ledthe Tsunami Group Oceanographic oftheIntergovernmental Commission, UNESCO, and providing tsunamiin2004 consistent oceanographicOcean datasets. theIndian After ofheatandfreshwater Atlantic the climate system, estimatingthetransports intheNorth renamed DHI,nowBSH,in1991hewasengagedresearch focused ontheocean’s role in Director ofthe Project attheIOS, WOCE International Office Wormley, to the Returning UK. Yury G.Seliverstov graduated from State University Moscow Marina A. Vikulina attheFaculty studiedgeomorphology of KlausPeter Koltermann circulation conditionsofmasssnow avalanches formation (2009). Russia (2009);Snowavalanches attheplain(2008);Macro- of of themare: attheterritory Snowavalanches: dangerandrisk of Russia.Hepublishedmore than60scientificpublications, main geography ofhisfieldinvestigations allregions covers practically geography ofavalanches, analysis, risk GISapproach. The of Geography, MSU. include The fieldsofhisscientificactivity ofSnowAvalanches Flows, andDebris at theLaboratory Faculty (Faculty ofGeography) in1985.Since1989heisresearch scientist unstable conditionsofsnow onaslopewiththeuseofGIS as anexample)(2009); Mountains (with Khibiny The modelingof (2010); Assessment ofsnowavalanche activity, hazard andrisk Assessment ofsnowavalanche hazard: methodsandresults publications: Main GIS technologies andtheconceptofrisk. PhD. degree in2010.Herresearch focuses onsnowavalanches, Geography, recently asthescientificresearcher. Sheobtained educationalandscientificbase,the Khibiny MSUFaculty of at 2001sheisworking degreewith Master in2000.SinceJanuary Geography, Lomonosov State andgraduated University Moscow the EquationofState ofSeawater). From 1987to 1991hewas Sea. Hegave lectures atHamburg (Polar University Oceanography, withathesisonthedeepcirculationUniversity oftheGreenland 1988heobtainedadegreeOceans. In ofDrrernat from Hamburg Atlantic,Arctic andAntarctic Sea,North cruises intheNorth ocean circulation to orleadingextensive withcontributing DHI, Hamburg, oncurrents, hydrography ofshelfseas, large-scale atthethenDeutschesHydrographischesInstitut Seas. Heworked Sea (Diploma) withathesismodellingseichesintheBaltic/North and Geophysics atHamburg University, graduating in1968 studiedOceanography, Meteorology 50.029:23:20 9:23:20 25.09.2012

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