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Information to Users INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced trom the· microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, 'some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copY submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough. substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. ln the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also. if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed. a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by seetioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand corner and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6D x 9- black and white photographie prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI d!rectly to arder. Bell & Howell Information and Leaming 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor. MI 48106-1346 USA 800-521-0600 NOTE TO USERS This reproduction is the best copy available. • A STUDY OF TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TRANSITION IN THE ~t WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, 1963-1996 by Christopher T. Fogarty Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences McGill University ~Iontreal, Quebec August 1999 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Master ofScience. ©C.T.Fogrurty1999 • National Library Bibliothèque nationale 1+1 of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliographie Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395. rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1 A ON4 Ottawa ON K1A ON4 canada canada VOUf file Votre ,.hiftH!QI aur file Notre fefèlfHlœ The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive licence allowing the exclusive pennettant à la National Library ofCanada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or sell reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies ofthis thesis in microform, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic fonnats. la fonne de microfiche/film, de reproduction sur papier ou sur fonnat électronique. The author retains ownership ofthe L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantial extracts frOID it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son penmSSlon. autorisation. 0-612-55057-5 Canada • ABSTRACT The transformation of 45 tropical cyclones into extratropical cyclones over the western Nàhh Atlantic Ocean between 1963 and 1996 is studied. Cases are selected from the National Hurricane Center's "best track" archive. National Centers. for Environmental Prediction (NeEP) reanalyses of geopotential height data are used to construct a synoptic-dynamic climatology of extratropical transition. or "ET". The Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) upper-air archive of six near-track stations is used to produce sounding composites. Primary results of the study follow. 1. A statistically-significant lOOO-SOO-hPa warm anomaly (with respect to the 1963-96 climatology) persists for the one-week period prior to the passage of the tropical systems into the Canadian Maritime provinces. 2. A northwestward extension of the surface subtropical anticyclone exists over the Canadian Atlantic Provinces during the two-day period prior to the arrivai of the cyclone. 3. The tropical cyclone's warm core and conditionally-unstable tropical airrnass are maintained after transition. 4. The presence of quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent, typically seen in extratropical cyclones, is observed during periods in which the systems are still classified as tropical cyclones. This forcing for ascent continues during the extratropical transformation, and typically occurs ahead and to the left of the storm track. • li RÉsUMÉ • Ce travail est le résultat de l'étude de quarante-cinq transitions de dépressions tropicales ~~ dépressions extratropicales ayant eu lieu dans l'ouest de l'océan Atlantique nord entre 1963 et 1996. Les cas ont été choisis parmi les trajectoires lissées des archives du National Hurricane Center. Les réanalyses des hauteurs géopbtentielles ont été utilisées pour produire une climatologie synoptique et pour analyser le forçage quasi­ géostrophique iors des transitions extratropicaies (ET). Les données àu Foret.:ast Systems Laboratory (FSL) provenant de six sites de lancement localisés près des trajectoires ont été utilisées pour produire des composites de radiosondage. Cette étude a révélé que 1. une crête anormale de l'épaisseur géopotentielle 1000-500 hPa se forme au-dessus du centre de l'Amérique du nord au moins une semaine avant la transition; 2. deux jours avant l'arrivée de la dépression, l'anticyclone subtropical stétend au-dessus des provinces maritimes du Canada; 3. le noyau chaud de la dépression tropicale est maintenu après la transition; 4. il Ya augmentation du forçage quasi-géostrophique pendant la transition et le forçage ascendant tend à s'exercer habituellement à l'avant et sur la gauche de la trajectoire. • iii • TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract 0:, ii Résumé Hi Table of Contents iv Acknowledgments vi Chapter 1 -Introduction 1 1.1 Extratropical Transition 1 1.2 ~Iotivation 2 1.3 Thesis Objectives 4 Chapter 2 - National Hurricane Center Archive and Case List 5 2.1 National Hurricane Center Archive 5 2.2 Case List 5 Chapter 3 - NCEP Composite and Diagnostic Reanalyses 18 3.1 The NCEP Reanalysis Data Set 18 3.2 Synoptic Climatology of ET 18 3.2.1 Data Compositing Procedures 18 3.2.2 Analysis ofSynoptic Climatology 19 3.3 Diagnostics of Quasi-geostrophic Forcing 25 3.3.1 Computational Procedure 2S 3.3.2 Examples ofExtratropical Transition 26 3.3.3 Example ofET Rainfall Pattern 28 3.3.4 Example ofET Cloud Pattern 29 • iv Chapter 4 • Upper-air Data Set and Sounding climatology 35 4.1 The Data Set 35 • 4.2 Sable Island Sounding Climatology 36 'p Chapter 5 • Tropospheric Structure During Transition 40 S.l Sounding Data Compositing Procedures 40 5.2 Results of Sounding Composites 44 5.3 Analysis of Convective Instability 52 5.4 Analysis of Thermal Advection 55 Chapter 6 • Summary and Conclusions 58 References 60 • v • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Th~-, completion of this project would not have been possible without assistance from colleagues and friends. 1 would like to thank my supervisor Dr. John Gyakum for bis guidance throughout this study. 1feel we work very weIl as a teani, both contributing new ideas and techniques on the topic of extratropical transition. This was a very interesting project, and 1 thank Dr. Gyakum for allowing me to pursue my interest into scientific research. His enthusiasm and interest in this area of meteorological research provided me with more incentive to work hard to complete aIl of what we set out ta do, and ta achieve this, the final product. It is certainly difficult ta name all those who have helped in any way - big or small- throughout the course of my research, however, 1wish ta thank my colleagues in Dr. Gyakum's syooptic meteorology research group for their help over the past year. Marco Carrera, Rick Danielson and Werner Wintels were always willing to help with computer-related questions. 1 thank Werner and Rick for those many hsynoptic discussions" in the computer lab that spawned sorne of my research ideas. 1 especially would like to thank Ayrton Moraes for bis tutoring of a course that 1 needed to pass to advance to the research stage and Dr. Owen Hertzman at Dalhousie University for persuading me to continue with research. We appreciate Steve Miller's assistance from Environment Canada for providing us with the daily weather summaries. 1 would like to thank my colleagues, friends and family for their understanding during the difficult times, particularly during the early stages of research. My family has been with me all the way, helping in any way they cano • vi • 1. Introduction 1.1 Extratropical Transition Extratropical transition (ET) is defined as the transformation of a tropical cyclone (TC) into an extratropical cyclone. The process invalves an intrusion of drier air inta the innèc <...irculalion, jncn~asing asymnlèLry, and progressive 10s5 of the distinctive üpper• level circulation and warm-core structure of a TC (Sinclair 1993a). Brand and Guard (1979) define ET as a process by which a TCls primary energy source changes from ~.,'. latent-heat release to baroclinic processes. ET usually occurs when a tropical cyclone moves from the low latitudes into the mid-latitudes where it often "recurves" upon interaction with the westerlies. Recurvature is said to have occurred if the tropical cyclone'spath changes from a westward heading to an eastward heading while maintaining sorne poleward motion. Interaction with the westerlies implies that the tropical cyclone'spath has been influenced by the mid- to upper-tropospheric winds. and its structure changed owing to the presence of quasi-geostrophic forcing (e.g.. Bosart and Lackmann 1995). The transition of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone often begins over the subtropical latitudes, 25° ta 35° in both hemispheres. ETs are most commonly found in the western North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of North America, western North Pacific Ocean off China and lapan, and western South Pacifie Ocean off New Zealand and Australia (Sinclair 1993b). This study focuses on ET in the western North Atlantic Ocean. ET systems onglnating as tropical cyclones and undergoing transition to an extratropical cyclone can last for over two weeks.
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