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Innovative Approach for Effective and Safe Space Debris Removal

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Innovative Approach for Effective and Safe Space Debris Removal Fakultät der Luft- und Raumfahrttechnik Institut für Raumfahrttechnik und Weltraumnutzung Innovative Approach for Effective and Safe Space Debris Removal Dipl. Ing. Susanne Peters Vollständiger Abdruck der von der Fakultät für Luft- und Raumfahrttechnik der Universität der Bundeswehr München zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktor-Ingenieur (Dr.-Ing.) genehmigten Dissertation. Vorsitzender: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Matthias Gerdts 1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Roger Förstner 2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Enrico Stoll Die Dissertation wurde am 26. März 2019 bei der Universität der Bundeswehr München eingereicht und durch die Fakultät für Luft- und Raumfahrttechnik am 10. August 2019 angenommen. Die mündliche Prüfung fand am 6. Dezember 2019 statt. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. i Kurzfassung In dieser Arbeit wird ein innovativer Ansatz zur effektiven und sicheren Entfernung von Weltraumrückständen untersucht. Die Gefahr von Weltraumrückständen für den sicheren Betrieb von Satelliten in der Erdumlaufbahn hat in den letzten Jahren stark zugenommen. Weltraumrückstände sind ein wachsendes Problem der Menschen. Im- mer mehr Satelliten werden ins All gebracht. Bereits dort Befindliche erreichen ihr Lebensende, ohne, dass sich jemand darum kümmert wie es danach mit ihnen weiter geht. Einige der Satelliten treten unkontrolliert wieder in die Erdatmosphäre ein. Dabei haben sie das Potential Leben auf der Erde zu gefährden. Andere explodieren im Weltall und tragen damit zu einer steigenden Anzahl bei. Bereits angewandte Mit- tel wie Ausweichmanöver einleiten, die Richtlinien zur Verlangsamung des Anstiegs der die Erde umkreisenden unkontrollierten Körper einfordern und Methoden zur besseren Beobachtung und Vorhersage von Flugbahnen einführen, müssen durch die tatsächliche Entfernung von Objekten unterstützt werden. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es, einen wirksamen und sicheren Ansatz für die ak- tive Entfernung von Weltraumrückständen bereitzustellen, um die Anzahl der Objekte in der niedrigen Erdumlaufbahn tatsächlich zu begrenzen. Wirksam, da mindestens fünf große Objekte pro Jahr entfernt werden müssen, um einen Unterschied in den Vorhersagen zu machen und die Eskalation des bereits eingeleiteten Kaskadeneffekts zu vermeiden. Sicher, da das Szenario aufgrund eines unkooperativen Zielobjektes mit un- bekannter Drehrate, ohne Signalreflektoren und fehlender vorgefertigter Kontaktstelle für den Andockvorgang äußerst kritisch ist. Da das Annäherungsszenario zudem zeitkri- tisch ist, wird die Umsetzung von Entscheidungsprozessen an Bord unterstützt. Die Arbeit beginnt mit einer Einführung in das Thema Weltraumrückstände und dessen Bedrohung für Menschen auf der Erde sowie für Objekte im Weltraum. Es werden bereits getroffene und anvisierte Maßnahmen vorgestellt. Darüber hinaus werden die Herausforderungen der aktiven Entfernung von Weltraumrückständen dargestellt. Als nächster Schritt wird eine Mission zur Entfernung mehrerer Ziele entwickelt. Angestrebt werden fünf SL-8-Raketenoberstufen, die sich in unmittelbarer Nähe zueinander mit einer Inklination von 83 Grad und einer Höhe von etwa 980 km befinden ii - ein Gebiet, das stark durch andere Weltraumrückstände okkupiert ist. Die Mission selbst besteht aus einem Hauptsatelliten (ADReS-A) und mehreren De-Orbit-Kits. Der Missionsaufbau ist so gestaltet, dass ADReS-A jeweils ein De-Orbit-Kit tragen und an einem Zielobjekt anbringen kann. Dort dient das Kit als Schubersatz und ermöglicht eine aktive Entfernung der großen Raketenoberstufen. Während der Hauptsatellit ein einzelnes Kit zum Zielobjekt befördert, an der Raketenoberstufe anlegt und das Ver- bundsystem stabilisiert, warten die anderen Kits in einer entfernteren Umlaufbahn auf ihren Einsatz. Berechnungen für ein treibstoffsparendes Shuttleszenario werden präsentiert. Im Weiteren bietet die Systemarchitektur einen detaillierteren Aufbau der zwei Raum- fahrzeuge, einschließlich eines CAD-Modells und eines Massen- und Leistungsbudgets. Die Kombination aus ADReS-A und einem Kit ergibt annähernd das gleiche Gewicht und eine ähnliche Größe wie der angestrebte Raketenkörper. Die Sicherheit der Mission und die Entscheidungsfindungskonzepte an Bord wer- den durch das Self- & Failure-Management adressiert. Es werden verschiedene An- forderungen für das präsentierte Konzept vorgestellt, eine Fehlerbaumanalyse bezüglich möglicher Fehler durch ADReS-A wird entwickelt. Das Entscheidungskonzept der Fuzzy-Logik wird in dieser Phase der Missionsentwicklung als am besten geeignet aus- gewählt. Basierend auf der Fehlerbaumanalyse werden Fuzzy-Regeln entwickelt. Die resultierenden Vorschläge beinhalten Maßnahmen, wie in unterschiedlichen Fällen zu reagieren ist. Basierend auf den Ergebnissen der oben beschriebenen Untersuchungen wird eine Simu- lation entwickelt, um denkbare Szenarien zu testen. Eine Analyse verschiedener Setups legt die Möglichkeiten und Grenzen des vorgestellten Konzeptes offen. Zusammenfassend ist eine aktive Entfernung von Weltraumrückständen notwendig, um zukünftige Weltraumoperationen zu ermöglichen. Die vorgestellte Mission mit ihrer Möglichkeit eines Abbruchs während des Endanfluges ist ein geeigneter Ansatz. iii Abstract This work investigates an innovative approach for effective and safe space debris removal. The threat of space debris for the safe operation of satellites in Earth’s orbit increased rapidly over the last few years. Space debris is a growing human-made issue. More and more satellites are launched into space, older ones reach their end-of-life without being taken care of. Some re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere uncontrolled and may harm life on Earth. Others explode in space and add to the already large number of objects. Avoid- ance maneuver, confirmed guidelines to slow down the rising amount of uncontrolled bodies orbiting Earth, and developed mechanisms for better observation and prediction of trajectories will have to be supported by the actual removal of objects. The objective of this study is to provide an effective and safe approach for active debris removal as a tool to actually limit the number of objects in low Earth orbit. Effective as at least five large objects per year will have to be removed to make a difference within the predictions and avoid the escalation of the cascade effect already initiated. Safe as the scenario is highly critical due to an uncooperative target with unknown rotation rate, no signal reflectors, and an absent pre-designed point of contact for the berthing process. As the approach scenario is also time-critical, the implementation of on-board decision-making processes is promoted. The thesis starts with an introduction into the subject of space debris and its threat for humans on Earth and objects in space. Presented are measures already considered and taken. Additionally, the challenges of active debris removal are presented. As a next step, a mission for a multiple target removal is developed. Targeted are five SL-8 rocket bodies orbiting in close proximity at an inclination of 83 deg and an altitude of about 980 km - an area crowded with space debris. The mission itself consists of a main satellite (ADReS-A) and multiple De-orbit Kits. The mission set-up enables ADReS-A to carry and attach one De-orbit Kit at a time to a target. There, the Kit serves as thrust extension and allows for an active removal of the large debris. While the main satellite carries one single Kit to the target, berths with it, and stabilizes the compound system, the other Kits wait in a different orbit for their transportation. Calculations for a fuel-efficient shuttling scenario are given. iv The system architecture then provides a more detailed set-up of the two different kind of spacecraft including a CAD-model and a mass- and power budget. The combination of ADReS-A and one Kit results in approximately the same weight and similar size as the targeted rocket body. The safety of the mission and on-board decision-making concepts are addressed by the self- & failure-management. Different requirements for such mission are presented, a fault tree analysis of possible failures for ADReS-A is developed. The decision-making concept of fuzzy-logic is chosen as most suitable at this stage of the mission development. Based on the fault tree analysis, fuzzy rules are developed with actions on how to react in various cases assigned. On the basis of the results of the investigations described above, a simulation is developed to test for different scenarios. An analysis on different set-ups frames the capability of the introduced approach. In conclusion, active debris removal is necessary to enable future space operations. The presented mission with its possibility for an abort during the final approach is one suitable approach for such removal mission. Table of Contents v Table of Contents Table of Contents viii List of Symbols xiii Acronyms xvii 1 Introduction 1 2 Space Debris 3 2.1 Definition and Classification . 3 2.1.1 OriginandDistribution ...................... 3 2.1.2 Size ................................. 6 2.2 CollisionProbability ........................... 7 2.2.1 Theory ............................... 7 2.2.2 Experience ............................. 10 2.3 MitigationMeasures ........................... 12 2.3.1 Surveillance ............................ 12 2.3.2 OfficialGuidelines ......................... 12 2.4 ActiveDebrisRemoval .......................... 13 2.4.1 Challenges ............................. 13 2.4.2 ADRConceptStudies ....................... 15 3 Mission Design 17 3.1 GeneralConsiderations
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