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Trends in Space Commerce Foreword from the Secretary of Commerce As the United States seeks opportunities to expand our economy, commercial use of space resources continues to increase in importance. The use of space as a platform for increasing the benefits of our technological evolution continues to increase in a way that profoundly affects us all. Whether we use these resources to synchronize communications networks, to improve agriculture through precision farming assisted by imagery and positioning data from satellites, or to receive entertainment from direct-to-home satellite transmissions, commercial space is an increasingly large and important part of our economy and our information infrastructure. Once dominated by government investment, commercial interests play an increasing role in the space industry. As the voice of industry within the U.S. Government, the Department of Commerce plays a critical role in commercial space. Through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Department of Commerce licenses the operation of commercial remote sensing satellites. Through the International Trade Administration, the Department of Commerce seeks to improve U.S. industrial exports in the global space market. Through the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, the Department of Commerce assists in the coordination of the radio spectrum used by satellites. And, through the Technology Administration's Office of Space Commercialization, the Department of Commerce plays a central role in the management of the Global Positioning System and advocates the views of industry within U.S. Government policy making processes. I am pleased to commend for your review the Office of Space Commercialization's most recent publication, Trends in Space Commerce. The report presents a snapshot of U.S. competitiveness as well as a forecast of trends into the near future. While the report indicates future growth in space commerce, it also shows that we in the United States have work to do to improve our competitive position. As Secretary of Commerce, I look forward to working with industry, the Congress, and other parts of the Executive branch to enhance the commercial use of space and American competitiveness in this area. Donald L. Evans Table of Contents Content Page Table of Contents . .i Table of Figures . .ii Table of Tables . .iv Section 1 · Overview 1.1 Purpose of report . .1-1 1.2 General methodology . .1-1 1.3 Overview of industry segments . .1-2 Section 2 · Space Transportation 2.1 Overview of trends, drivers, and events . .2-1 2.2 U.S. and world launches, 1996-2002 . .2-2 2.3 U.S. & world commercial launch trends . .2-6 2.4 Launch sites . .2-14 2.5 Selected references . .2-18 Section 3 · Satellite Communications 3.1 Overview of trends, drivers, and events . .3-1 3.2 Transponder leasing . .3-3 3.3 Retail/subscription satellite services . .3-6 3.4 Ground equipment . .3-8 3.5 World commercial communications satellites on orbit . .3-11 3.6 Satellite manufacturing . .3-12 3.7 Proposed satellite systems . .3-15 3.8 Selected references . .3-17 Section 4 · Remote Sensing 4.1 Overview of trends, drivers, and events . .4-1 4.2 U.S. and world commercial imagery sales . .4-4 4.3 Current and future U.S. and world remote sensing satellite systems . .4-7 4.4 Selected references . .4-13 Section 5 · G.P.S. 5.1 Overview of trends, drivers, and events . .5-1 5.2 U.S. and world commercial GPS user equipment sales . .5-2 5.3 U.S. and world commercial GPS units sold . .5-6 5.4 Sample U.S. and world producers of GPS equipment . .5-8 5.5 Sample related GPS companies . .5-10 5.6 Selected references . .5-11 i Table of Figures Figure Page 1.1. World revenue for space industry segments, in billions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .1-2 1.2. Space industry revenues by industry segment, in billions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .1-4 2.1 World commercial and civil government and quasi-commercial launches, 1996-2002 . .2-3 2.2 U.S. commercial and civil government and quasi-commercial launches, 1996-2002 . .2-4 2.3 U.S. and rest of world launch industry revenue, in billions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .2-5 2.4 World-wide commercial launches by mass class capacity of launch vehicle, in maximum pounds to LEO: small, < 5,000; medium, 5,001 to 12,000; intermediate, 12,001 to 25,000; heavy, > 25,000 . .2-7 2.5 U.S. commercial launches by mass class capacity of launch vehicle, in maximum pounds to LEO: small, < 5,000; medium, 5,001 to 12,000; intermediate, 12,001 to 25,000; heavy, > 25,000 . .2-8 2.6 Worldwide commercial launches by payload owner region, 1996-2000 . .2-9 2.7 U.S. commercial launches by payload owner region, 1996-2000 . .2-10 2.8 Worldwide commercial launches by provider region, 1996-2000 . .2-12 2.9 Worldwide commercial launches by orbit, 1996-2000 . .2-13 2.10 U.S. commercial launches by orbit, 1996-2000 . .2-14 2.11 U.S. operational and proposed orbital launch sites . .2-15 2.12 World (non-U.S.) active orbital launch sites . .2-16 3.1 World satellite communications industry revenues, by sector, in billions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .3-2 3.2 U.S. and rest of world transponder leasing revenues (not including resale or brokering revenues), in billions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .3-4 ii Table of Figures 3.3 U.S. and rest of world transponder leasing employment (not including resellers or brokers), 1996-2002 . .3-5 3.4 U.S. and rest of world retail/subscription satellite services revenues, in billions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .3-6 3.5 U.S. and rest of world retail/subscription satellite services employment, 1996-2002 . .3-7 3.6 U.S. and rest of world satellite communications' ground equipment manufacturing revenues, in billions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .3-9 3.7 U.S. and rest of world satellite communications' ground equipment manufacturing employment, 1996-2002 . .3-10 3.8 Operational commercial communications satellites, by orbit type, as of December 31, 2000 . .3-11 3.9 Operational commercial communications satellites, by orbit type, as of December 31, 2000 . .3-13 3.10 U.S. and rest of world satellite manufacturing employment (does not include government personnel), 1996-2002 . .3-14 4.1 U.S. and rest of world pre-value-added commercial remote-sensing satellite imagery revenues, in millions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .4-5 4.2 U.S. and rest of world commercial remote-sensing satellite data provider employment, 1996-2002 . .4-7 5.1 GPS revenues earned by producers, in billions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .5-3 5.2 Annual GPS customer expenditures, in billions U.S. $, 1996-2002 . .5-4 5.3 GPS industry employees, 1996-2002 . .5-5 5.4 Commercial GPS units sold, in thousands, 1996-2002 . .5-6 5.5 Distribution of GPS units sold by market component, year 2000 . .5-7 5.6 GPS market trends, 1996-2002 . .5-8 iii Table of Tables Table Page 2.1 U.S. and rest of world launch services employment, 1996-2002 . .2-6 2.2 Selected payloads by payload owner region . .2-11 2.3 Commercial launch vehicles by region . .2-11 2.4 U.S. active and licensed orbital launch sites . .2-15 2.5 World (non-U.S.) orbital launch sites and vehicles . .2-17 3.1 Select major satellite operators, worldwide, as of December 31, 2000 . .3-12 3.2 Operational and/or deploying LEO commercial satellite constellations . .3-16 4.1 Overview of current operational U.S. and world remote-sensing satellites producing commercially available imagery . .4-8 4.2 Technical information on current operational U.S. and world remote- sensing satellites producing commercially available imagery . .4-9 4.3 Overview of future U.S. and world remote-sensing satellites that will be producing commercially available imagery . .4-11 4.4 Technical information on future U.S. and world remote-sensing satellites that will be producing commercially available imagery . .4-12 5.1 Sample U.S. and world GPS equipment producers, year 2000 . .5-9 5.2 Sample related GPS companies, year 2000 . .5-10 iv Section One Overview Overview 1.1 Purpose of report Understanding the current size of the space industry, the likely future industry trends, and the effects of these trends is an enormous challenge to industry and to policy makers. The challenge in understanding the space industry stems from two factors. First, the space industry is broader than most people realize. It is not only composed of satellites and their launches, but now encompasses many direct-to-consumer applications, Internet services, and entertainment applications. Second, the industry is rapidly evolving from an industry dominated by civil government and military activities to an industry experiencing dramatic growth in commercial arenas. The unprecedented demand for commercial telecommunications services and new commercial applications are the primary driving forces of the space industry today. With recent and continuing advances in the space industry, the Department of Commerce's (DOC) Office of Space Commercialization sought to produce a publication detailing current indicators and near-term future trends for major space industry segments. This document, Trends in Space Commerce, provides benchmark indicators and trend information that can be used by Congress, the industry, and other interested parties. Futron Corporation assisted the DOC Office of Space Commercialization in the development and preparation of Trends in Space Commerce. This document details the results of an analysis of the space transportation, satellite communications, remote-sensing, and global positioning system (GPS) industry segments. The document includes indicators for each industry segment for 1996 to 1999, with projections for 2000 to 2002.
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