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Natural – A National Threat The USGS Role in Reducing Losses USGS Science Helps Build Safer Communities In the United States each year, natural Seven events in the United States and Puerto Rico hazards cause hundreds of deaths and cost billions of dollars in disaster aid, disruption of commerce, and destruc- tion of homes and critical infrastructure. Although the number of lives lost to natural hazards each year generally has declined, the economic cost of major disaster response and recovery continues to rise. Each decade, property damage from natural hazards events doubles or

Presidential triples. The United States is second only Disaster to Japan in economic damages resulting Declarations from natural . By County 1965–2003 A major goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is to reduce the vulner- ability of the people and areas most at risk from natural hazards. Working with partners throughout all sectors of society, Presidential Disaster Declarations in the United States and Territories by county from the USGS provides information, products, 1965–2003 reflect the broad geographic distribution and impacts of , , and knowledge to help build more resil- hurricanes, , , volcanoes and . (Map not to Scale. Source: FEMA) ient communities. Natural Hazards Impacts: USGS Science Seeks to Achieve:

• Earthquakes have the highest potential for causing catastrophic • Rapid impact assessments delivered to emer- casualties, property damage, and economic disruption. gency managers

• Over 75 percent of declared Federal disasters are related to • Real-time inundation mapping to support emergency floods. response

• More than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of • Predictions of coastal impacts 48 hours before hurricane a coast. Many of these areas, especially the Atlantic and Gulf landfall coasts, will be in the direct path of future hurricanes. • Tsunami risk maps for all coastal areas that may be at risk • Landslides affect every State, causing $3.5 billion dollars annually in damages and between 25 and 50 deaths. • Better predictions of where and when landslides will occur

• The United States faces significant tsunami threats to the • Early detection of volcanic activity to allow maximum West Coast, , Alaska, and island territories in the response time Caribbean and the Pacific. • Real-time condition information to support rapid • The United States has 169 active volcanoes capable of firefighting activity producing a wide range of hazards that threaten people and infrastructure on the ground as well as aircraft in flight. • Integrated information about multiple hazards to create new products that are useful for reducing loss of life and • In 2004, wildfires burned more than 8 million acres in 40 property from natural hazards. States.

U.S. Department of the Interior Fact Sheet 2007-3009 U.S. Geological Survey Printed on recycled paper February 2007 The USGS provides scientific research The USGS is focusing on strengthen- and real-time information to help citizens, ing its science that deals with natural emergency managers, and policymakers hazards that typically have a sudden decide how to react to each and onset and can have catastrophic con- how to safeguard society. sequences in terms of loss of life and destruction of property—earthquakes, The USGS has the lead Federal floods, hurricanes, landslides, tsunamis, responsibility for issuing alerts about volcanoes, and wildfires. It brings a earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and land- broad combination of disciplines—biol- caused widespread slides. These effective forecasts and warn- ogy, , hydrology, geography, and destruction along the Gulf Coast in late ings, which are based on the best possible geospatial information technology—to summer 2005. (Photo by Mark Wolfe, FEMA) scientific information, are intended to bear on all these hazards. This work is enhance public safety and reduce losses. also applicable to more gradual hazards such as and the effects of chang- Other agencies rely on USGS infor- ing climate. The USGS, in collaboration mation to help them fulfill their respon- with its partners, can help reduce disaster sibilities regarding natural hazards. For losses by: example, the National Service (NWS) relies on USGS real-time stream- • Issuing more timely and accurate flow information for developing forecasts warnings of the severity and locations and issuing flood watches and warnings. of hazards when they occur The NWS also relies on data from • Ensuring the availability of hazard USGS-supported seismic networks as a predictions and warnings to all those An eruption cloud ascends from Redoubt primary input for tsunami warnings. who may be impacted by a natural , Alaska, as viewed to the west from the Kenai Peninsula on April 21, 1990. hazard USGS seismic hazard maps provide (Photo by R. Clucas) information essential to building codes • Developing products in formats that adopted by States and localities nation- are useful to a wide range of users wide. USGS pre-hurricane forecasts and that can be quickly put into the regarding impacts to infrastructure are hands of essential for evacuation and poststorm personnel to guide their rescue and recovery efforts. USGS notices of vol- recovery efforts canic activity are used by the Federal Aviation Administration, NWS, airlines, • Characterizing natural hazards and and the Department of Defense to keep their risks air traffic flowing safely. USGS volcano • Installing and operating the monitor- hazard assessments are used by State and A 1964 earthquake-generated tsunami left ing networks necessary to detect and severe damage in Seward, Alaska, and local communities and land managers to track hazardous phenomena along Prince William Sound. (Photo by the guide development in hazardous areas and Department of the Interior) to develop eruption response and mitiga- • Increasing the scientific understanding tion plans. The USGS and its Federal of why, where, how, and when natural partners monitor seasonal wildfire danger disasters occur and communicating conditions and provide firefighters with that understanding to affected com- maps of current fire locations, perimeters, munities and the Nation. and potential spread.

USGS Priorities for Natural Hazard Science

The USGS has made major advances in its ability to assess, monitor, and pre- Homes in East Grand Forks, Minn., are sub- dict natural hazards. Its current challenge merged following flooding in 1997. (Photo by David Saville, FEMA) is to turn technical ability into operational capability. A Vision for the Future

In order to provide science that safeguards society from natural disasters, the USGS must collect accurate and timely information from modern observation networks, assess areas at risk from natural hazards, and conduct research targeted at improving hazard predictions.

Collect Information from Earth Assess and Characterize Target Research on Hazard Observation Hazard Networks Natural Hazards Processes and Prediction

Robust monitoring networks provide Characterizing hazards—determining Accurate forecasts and predictions are the fundamental information needed where they are likely to occur and how dependent on understanding the physical to accurately predict and characterize large they are likely to be—is essential processes that control the occurrence, hazards as well as information vital to for making decisions about where and distribution, timing, and severity of a response and recovery efforts. Modern- how to live and build. Examples include: hazard. Additional targeted research is ization of earthquake, volcano, and needed to make significant advances in flood monitoring networks in particular ✔ Evaluating the physical and socio- hazard prediction: are critical to help communities prepare economic of both the for, respond to, and rebuild following built and the natural environment to ✔ Advancing knowledge of the time- natural hazard events. Future success multiple hazards dependence of earthquake processes depends on: can enable forecasts that focus on ✔ Creating multi-hazard maps for those faults most likely to rupture ✔ Fully deploying the Advanced at-risk urban areas soon. National Seismic System to improve ✔ Enhancing LANDFIRE—an inter- ✔ seismic monitoring of the 26 U.S. Forecasting the style and magnitude agency cooperative assessment of urban areas at greatest risk from of volcanic eruptions builds on the wildfire factors—to project changes earthquakes current ability to forecast the timing in vegetation, fire fuels, and fire char- of eruptions. acteristics over time ✔ Developing the National Volcano ✔ Understanding of processes Early Warning System so that the ✔ Developing streamflow character- will form the basis for real-time most threatening of the Nation’s istics for all locations in the Nation, landslide and debris-flow warning volcanoes are well monitored with including areas without streamgages systems. modern, real-time networks ✔ Assessing vulnerability of hurricane- ✔ Research on tsunami-generating ✔ Esuring a stable, core network of threatened U.S. coasts to different processes will improve assessments of USGS-supported streamflow stations hurricane types and intensities tsunami hazard potential. for continuity of data critical for flood warnings, drought management, and ✔ Determining potential for tsunami ✔ Advancing non-contact data collec- other uses generation in U.S. offshore tion and real-time estimates of mea- surement uncertainty could signifi- ✔ Providing high-resolution digital ✔ Expanding the Marsh Surface Eleva- cantly improve flood estimates. tion Table Network to evaluate the imagery to more accurately character- effects of hurricanes on coastal ize hazard susceptibility. ✔ An enhanced awareness of the role of wetlands wetlands in protecting coastal com- munities from the ravaging impacts of ✔ Systematically acquiring moderate hurricanes is needed to improve risk resolution, multi-spectral imaging; assessments. temporally repeated National Land Cover Dataset products; and LIDAR to assess and monitor hazards-related landscape changes.

Parts of were devastated following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake in October 1989. (Photo by C.E. Meyer, USGS) Early Warning of Hazards USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project

When a hazard looms, advanced The USGS proposes a new project in Southern California to demonstrate how warning can make a critical difference integrating information and products about multiple hazards can help to reduce vul- in saving lives and protecting property. nerability of high-risk communities to natural hazards. The Multi-Hazards Demon- A primary goal of USGS science is to stration Project brings the unique research and systems capabilities of the USGS to provide warnings further in advance of bear on the complex issues surrounding natural hazards events, especially those that the onset of a hazard event. Priorities are interrelated such as fire, floods, debris flows, earthquakes, or tsunamis. include: Why Southern California? ✔ Earthquakes: Develop new method- Southern California has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme ologies that use seismic data telem- catastrophic losses due to natural hazards. Estimates of expected losses from these etry to reduce the response time for hazards in eight counties of Southern California exceed $3 billion per year. earthquake notification, in some cases before shaking begins This project will expand the use of USGS science through more effective risk communication and better technology. The USGS will engage the local emergency ✔ Volcanoes: Provide a five-minute management community in all phases of the project to determine their needs, design notification of ash-producing volcanic projects to fulfill those needs, and deliver relevant products that result in more eruptions so that air traffic control disaster-resilient communities. Integrated information from modern earth observa- centers can provide airline pilots and tion networks, targeted research on hazards processes, and comprehensive hazard dispatchers enough lead time to alter assessments will lead to better understanding of when, where, and how hazards flight plans occur. As a result, predictions will be more timely and accurate, providing the lead ✔ Landslides and Debris Flows: time needed to save lives and property. Develop and fully deploy debris-flow The USGS is working closely with a number of partners in Southern California, early warning systems in partnership who will help plan and guide the implementation of the USGS Multi-Hazards Dem- with the NWS onstration Project. Results expected include: ✔ Flood: Provide real-time information from USGS streamgages for the NWS ✔ Prototype early warning systems and others to use in making forecasts for flash floods and debris flows and issuing flood warnings ✔ Integrated hazards maps developed ✔ Forecast Coastal Change in collaboration with local emergency Resulting from Hurricanes: managers Forecast the expected locations ✔ Hazard scenarios to identify and relative magnitudes of extreme coastal changes 48 hours before hurri- cane landfall by using hurricane track ✔ Systems for hazards monitoring and intensity forecasts supplied by the and National Hurricane Center ✔ Robust/hardened information In June 2005, these homes in Laguna technology and telecommunications Beach, Calif., were heavily damaged dur- systems to ensure availability ing landslides triggered by record rainfall. of critical information at all times. (Photo by the USGS)

For More Information An ambulance passes evacuees during a June 2002 wildfire in Colorado. (Photo by www.usgs.gov/hazards/ Bryan Dahlberg, FEMA)