STARTS AFTER PAGE 30 Rebuilding 3D Printing Networks From Scratch Gets Real ™ $14.95 JUNE 15-28, 2020

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DEPARTMENTS 5 | Feedback 11 | Leading Edge 22 6 | Who’s Where 56 | Classified NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, 7-8 | First Take 57 | Contact Us foreground, overseeing his first human 9 | Up Front 57 | Aerospace , snares a selfie with Demo-2 10 | Going Concerns Calendar astronauts Robert Behnken, left, and Douglas Hurley inside the Astronaut Crew Quarters —used for every NASA human spaceflight mission since the FEATURES 1960s. Credit: Kim Shiflett/NASA 12 | The Next Bomber? An “Arsenal Plane” emerges as a priority for the U.S. Air Force, but SPACE SUPPLY CHAIN an internal debate continues over 22 | NASA and SpaceX open a new 36 | Aerospace supply chain is due for the type of aircraft to use chapter in human spaceflight overhaul after COVID-19 14 | Fables of the Reconstruction MANUFACTURING Transborder restrictions, weak DEFENSE balance sheets among challenges 28 | Technology boosts Western air-to- 43 | Powerful optimization tools change for decimated airline networks air missile supremacy aerospace design engineers’ role 40 | Reconnecting Parts 30 | Beijing is taking the air-to-air AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT Ten years on, additive missile lead from Russia 45 | Europe’s GPS augmentation manufacturing has not changed system aims at Cat. 2 approaches 32 | New F-35 propulsion road map the aerospace landscape includes possible reengining 46 | The FAA applies its “preferred” 48 | Face to Face, Point to Point surveillance system 33 Flight Paths Forward: A look at | U.S. Army Vintage Racer concept details revealed inadvertently ASK THE EDITORS the future of business and general 55 | How can sustainable aviation fuel aviation after the coronavirus 34 | Performance is expected to leap be kept sustainable? after Australian Jindalee upgrade FROM THE EDITOR 35 | COVID-19 forces new approaches 58 | Coming soon: Aviation Week’s COMMERCIAL AVIATION to U.S. military pilot training Flight Paths Forward and more 18 | Emirates sees major benefits in tying up with a big U.S. airline 19 | Alitalia has its work cut out for ON THE COVER post-COVID-19 relaunch After 18 years and 92 launches, SpaceX founder, CEO and Chief Engineer celebrated his company’s achievement of becoming the first private entity to fly people to orbit. Space Editor Irene 20 | Europe’s LCCs face obstacles to Klotz’s report begins on page 22. NASASpaceFlight.com photo by Brady Kenninston. summer recovery Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST 21 | All SpaceJet flying suspended, production winding down to zero DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Beijing Market Briefi ngs. Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Jens Flottau [email protected] market, identify opportunities and Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK

Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] OUT OF PROPORTION selected a point on the Hudson, west DISPUTED CLAIM

Executive Editors The “COVID Relief Dwarfs Defense of Madison Square Garden, where I always enjoy Graham Warwick’s in- Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Spending” graph in “First Take” on the shoreline made a bend slightly sightful reporting. Surprisingly, I think Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] page 8 of the May 18-31 issue is high- southeastward, and someone came I caught him in a minor misstatement Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] ly misleading. The reader of such a up with the idea of making it a float- in his “Short Story” (May 18-31, p. 48). Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Editors graphic would naturally assume that ing facility, runway and all, using the In discussing the NASA Quiet Short- Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, the areas of the circles are propor- “mothballed” fleet of Liberty Ships. Haul Research Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- tional to the numbers they represent. Basically, we designed an aircraft Aircraft (QSRA), Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, It seems, however, that the designer carrier, tethered to shore and floating he notes that “it Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, of the graphic made the diameters of vertically with the tide. contributed to Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Alas, the “Chelsea Against the the design of the Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George COVID Relief Dwarfs Defense Spending STOLport Committee” representing Boeing C-17.” I Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt many West Side residents of the city suspect that he MIT Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell $1.9 Global Defense protested. The pressure on Mayor was actually thinking about the Boeing Spending in 2019 REVISED Art Director Lisa Caputo (trillions) Government Stimulus John Lindsay was too much, and the YC-14 that shared the upper-surface Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Spending in 2020 $11.0 (trillions) city withdrew its support for the two- blown-flap design demonstrated by Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Copy Editors year Northeast Corridor demonstra- the QSRA. The C-17 traces its lineage Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie

Source: McKinsey and Co. tion grant we were seeking. to the then-McDonnell Douglas YC-15 Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso COVID Relief Dwarfs Defense Spending Fifty years later, we seem to think with externally blown flaps. Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Global Defense Spending in 2019 electric propulsion of quiet, autono- Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria (trillions) Government Stimulus mous air taxi aircraft will gain public Chris Mayrand, Beavercreek, Ohio Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq $1.9 Spending in 2020 (trillions) acceptance on the ground. However, Data & Analytics ORIGINAL air traffic control issues notwithstand- Editor’s note: Here is how NASA claims Brian Kough $11.0 Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights ing, let us not ever disregard the pos- it contributed to the C-17: .gov/cen-

Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production sibility of public opposition to uncon- ters/langley/news/factsheets/C-17.html Terra Deskins Source: McKinsey and Co. strained, frequent, low- overflight Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint the circles proportional to the repre- of residential land areas. ONLINE, in response to “Is Super-STOL Editorial Offices sented numbers rather than the areas, A Viable Alternative To Electric VTOL?” 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 causing the areas to be proportional George P. Vittas, Bedford, Texas (May 18-31, p. 48), MARKPAGE writes: Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 to the square of the numbers. The 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 large circle is thus over 30 times the BIG ISLAND Very informative article. Really GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 area of the small circle, when it should “Adapt or die” is the applicable adage excellent. Years ago Douglas studied dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland be only about 5.8 times the area. Many for the airline industry today. People a Super- STOL concept with a swept IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] readers will glance at the graph and don’t want to get on airliners because wing that was rotated perhaps 20 deg. Market Briefi ngs. Beijing come away with a very inaccurate they are afraid they will get the novel for takeoff and landing to limit the Bradley Perrett [email protected] impression. coronavirus by sharing a confined takeoff rotation problem, and control Cape Canaveral space with other passengers, some was provided by elevons and rudders These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Tim Coleman, Lynchburg, Virginia of whom may have asymptomatic on a C-winglet to keep the controls in Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] COVID-19. the propwash with good lever arm. No ‘STOLPORT’ STALL executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt What the need to do is come other tails were needed. Jens Flottau [email protected] I read with interest Brad Gale’s com- up with the number and combination market, identify opportunities and Houston ments in “The Short of It” (May 18-31, of existing COVID-19 tests that work And in response to “Autonomous drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] p. 5), as I was American Airlines’ to get a 99.9% confidence level. Then Technology Prompts Ethical Calling London manager of airport planning at its for- they need to test it. Here’s how: There for German FCAS” (June 1-14, p. 32), Tony Osborne [email protected] KPAR writes: Los Angeles mer New York headquarters and had are no new COVID-19 cases on the big LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] the job of developing the “STOLPort” island of Hawaii. Airlines should fly to Lyon runway (and supporting passenger there for two weeks and regularly test “Fighting at machine speed is accom- aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] facilities) that was simulated in flight everyone on the island to confirm that panied by a real risk of escalation. So Moscow operations as described by Brad. Our no new cases arise when they fly in it is prudent that we keep humans as Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] objectives were to develop an opera- tourists. This would be the acid test. circuit breakers,” Frank Sauer Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] tion that would be superior in travel If the airlines can demonstrate So true. I’m glad that is Washington time to Eastern’s Air Shuttle and successful COVID-19 testing, they are keeping the focus on the ethics of Jen DiMascio [email protected] American’s frequent services to Dulles back in business. Adapt to testing; auto mating defense tactics. Some- Wichita Airport and Boston’s Logan Airport. don’t die. thing that all Americans, liberal or Molly McMillin [email protected] Early on, we concluded approaches conservative, need to consider. This and departures had to be over water, William Thayer, San Diego problem transcends politics. President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton or at least no further in than the West Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Side Highway, to avoid dense commer- Anne McMahon cial and residential development. We Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, also concluded we would have to be 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: close enough to the Midtown Tunnel [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; to minimize crosstown travel time. We a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 5 WHO’S WHERE Webhed: New Positions, Promotions, Honors And Elections Teaser: Primary Category: Jeff Lewis has dent and chief financial officer. He was Specialized manufacturing group Secondary Category: been promoted to vice president of finance and corpo- AlphaCoin has promoted Robert Raytheon UK CEO rate controller. He succeeds Glenn E. Brooks to chief financial officer from Bullet Points: and managing di- Tynan, who will assist the transition vice president of finance for its Con- rector from chief until his retirement this fall. necticut Coining Inc. subsidiary, and operating officer. The International Aircraft Dealers Steven Maturo to associate director Lewis has worked Association has promoted Erika Ingle of business development from plant for Babcock Marine, the Weir Group to director of operations. Ingle will manager for its Gasser & Sons sub- and Balfour Beatty within the global be responsible for the day-to-day sidiary. defense sector. He succeeds Richard operation of the organization and its MTU Aero Engines’ supervisory Daniel, who will remain as an advisor. initiatives. board has extended the contracts of Thommen Aircraft Equipment of Ball Aerospace has two of its executive board members— has hired Daniel Grosch appointed Deirdre Peter Kameritsch, chief financial and as CEO. He held leadership positions M. Walsh vice pres- chief information officer, andLars at MSI Defence Systems, Arktis Radi- ident of Washington Wagner, chief operating officer. They ation Detectors, Bruhn NewTech and operations. Walsh, are to serve through L-3 Communications. who will oversee December 2025. Bristow Group and Era Group, government rela- Robert O. Work has merging as Bristow, have announced a tions, is former chief operating officer been elected board new leadership team drawn from both of the Office of the Director of Nation- chairman of Govini, entities: Chris Bradshaw, president al Intelligence. a data science com- and CEO; David Stepanek, executive The Center for Strategic and pany whose analytic vice president and chief operating Budgetary Assessments has named platform is used by officer;Alan Corbett, senior vice pres- Chris Bassler as a senior fellow for U.S. defense agencies. Work serves on ident for Europe, , the Middle research on joint aerospace capabili- the board of Raytheon Technologies East, Asia and , and UK ties, maritime operating concepts and and is a member of the Council on For- ; Stuart Stavley, U.S. military strategy. He was chief eign Relations and the International senior vice president for global fleet strategy officer for the F-35 Lightning Institute for Strategic Studies. He was management; Samantha Willenbacher, II Joint Program Office and held sev- deputy secretary of defense in 2014-17. senior vice president and chief com- eral senior positions within the U.S. Aero Precision Holdings has elected mercial officer;Jennifer Whalen, Navy, also serving on Brad Morton to its board. He also senior vice president and chief finan- NATO forums. serves on the boards of Proponent and cial officer;Crystal Gordon, senior Paul Damphousse, Noble Aerospace. He was Eaton Corp. vice president and general counsel; vice president of Aerospace Group president. Mary Wersebe, senior vice president Calspan business Jeremy Turpin has been appointed and chief administrative officer; and devel opment, has to the Space and Satellite Professionals James Stottlemyer, vice president of been named to the International board. As Isotropic Sys- health, safety and FAA’s Commercial tems’ co-founder and chief technology environment. Space Transportation Advisory Commit- officer, Turpin heads high-throughput Lockheed Martin tee. Damphousse will serve as the chair optical multibeam antenna design and has promoted of the innovation and infrastructure development. Yvonne Hodge to working group. senior vice president MDA Corp. has hired U.S. Army HONORS AND ELECTIONS of enterprise busi- Col. (ret.) and retired NASA astro- George E. Bye has ness transformation naut Tim Kopra as vice president of been named to the from space sector vice president of robotics and space operations, re- Titan CEO program’s business innovation transformation sponsible for the work of the robotics inaugural Titan 100, and enterprise excellence. and space operations teams at MDA which recognizes Dave Andrew has been promoted to facilities in Brampton and Ottawa, 100 Colorado execu- ASL Group CEO from CEO for Africa, Ontario; Saint-Hubert, Quebec; and tives for exceptional Asia and the leasing sector, with re- Houston. Kopra was a partner and leadership, vision sponsibility for all fleet and leasing advisor at private equity firm Blue and passion. Bye is the founder of Bye operations. Andrew succeeds Hugh Bear Capital and before that was a Aerospace, a developer of innovative Flynn, who will retire as CEO in July NASA astronaut and vehicle integra- aircraft concepts. Titan CEO will con- but will serve as a nonexecutive di- tion test engineer. fer the award during 2020. c rector of ASL’s Aviation Holdings and as nonexecutive chairman of ASL’s To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files subsidiary airlines in , Belgium, (no PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on France and Hungary. companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence K. Christopher Farkas has been Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone promoted to Curtiss-Wright vice presi- U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE Webhed: New Positions, Promotions, Honors And Elections FIRST Leading the eVTOL Investment Race Teaser: (U.S. $ million) Primary Category: TAKE Joby Aviation $721 Jeff Lewis has dent and chief financial officer. He was Specialized manufacturing group For the latest, go to Secondary Category: been promoted to vice president of finance and corpo- AlphaCoin has promoted Robert AVIATIONWEEK.COM Raytheon UK CEO rate controller. He succeeds Glenn E. to chief financial officer from Brooks Lilium Bullet Points: and managing di- Tynan, who will assist the transition vice president of finance for its Con- $376 rector from chief until his retirement this fall. necticut Coining Inc. subsidiary, and SPACE operating officer. The International Aircraft Dealers Steven Maturo to associate director Four days after launching two astro- Air taxi developer Lilium has secured Lewis has worked Association has promoted Erika Ingle of business development from plant nauts to the International Space Station Volocopter $139 an additional $35 million from Tesla’s for Babcock Marine, the Weir Group to director of operations. Ingle will manager for its Gasser & Sons sub- on May 30 on a test fl ight of its Crew biggest backer, Scotland-based and Balfour Beatty within the global be responsible for the day-to-day sidiary. Dragon commercial space taxi, SpaceX investment management partnership defense sector. He succeeds Richard operation of the organization and its MTU Aero Engines’ supervisory launched another with 60 Star- EHang $92 Baillie Gifford. This values the startup Daniel, who will remain as an advisor. initiatives. board has extended the contracts of link internet satellites, boosting the con- at over $1 billion, making it the second Thommen Aircraft Equipment of Ball Aerospace has two of its executive board members— stellation to 480 spacecraft (page 22). eVTOL unicorn after Joby Aviation. Switzerland has hired Daniel Grosch appointed Deirdre Peter Kameritsch, chief financial and Overair $25 as CEO. He held leadership positions M. Walsh vice pres- chief information officer, andLars The U.S. arm of Japanese satellite-ser- Source: Aviation Week at MSI Defence Systems, Arktis Radi- ident of Washington Wagner, chief operating officer. They vicing startup Astroscale is expanding ation Detectors, Bruhn NewTech and operations. Walsh, are to serve through into geostationary orbit by acquiring L-3 Communications. who will oversee December 2025. the assets of Israeli docked life-exten- GE Capital Aviation Services has de- Several U.S. airlines are among 69 sig- Bristow Group and Era Group, government rela- Robert O. Work has sion company E‰ ective Space Solutions. livered a Boeing 777-300ER to Israel natories of a letter supporting the stay merging as Bristow, have announced a tions, is former chief operating officer been elected board Aerospace Industries in Tel Aviv as the of an order granting Ligado Networks new leadership team drawn from both of the Office of the Director of Nation- chairman of Govini, prototype for a passenger-to-freighter access to mobile satellite service bands entities: Chris Bradshaw, president al Intelligence. a data science com- conversion. for a ground-based 5G network. and CEO; David Stepanek, executive The Center for Strategic and pany whose analytic vice president and chief operating Budgetary Assessments has named platform is used by VIEW FROM EUROPE officer;Alan Corbett, senior vice pres- Chris Bassler as a senior fellow for U.S. defense agencies. Work serves on ident for Europe, Africa, the Middle research on joint aerospace capabili- the board of Raytheon Technologies East, Asia and Australia, and UK ties, maritime operating concepts and and is a member of the Council on For- search and rescue; Stuart Stavley, U.S. military strategy. He was chief eign Relations and the International Antivirus Injection for Europe senior vice president for global fleet strategy officer for the F-35 Lightning Institute for Strategic Studies. He was Responding to a brutal downturn in commercial aviation caused by management; Samantha Willenbacher, II Joint Program Office and held sev- deputy secretary of defense in 2014-17. Northrop Grumman will design the COVID-19 , the French and German governments have announced senior vice president and chief com- eral senior positions within the U.S. Aero Precision Holdings has elected HALO habitation and logistics outpost mercial officer;Jennifer Whalen, Navy, also serving on Brad Morton to its board. He also for the lunar-orbiting Gateway under a separate but comparable bailout plans for industry. They intend senior vice president and chief finan- NATO forums. serves on the boards of Proponent and $187 million NASA contract. HALO and to save employees from layo‰ s and companies from bankruptcy. cial officer;Crystal Gordon, senior Paul Damphousse, Noble Aerospace. He was Eaton Corp. the Maxar Technologies power and pro- They also aim to cut aviation’s environmental footprint. vice president and general counsel; vice president of Aerospace Group president. pulsion element are scheduled to launch Mary Wersebe, senior vice president Calspan business Jeremy Turpin has been appointed together in 2023. As the leaders in European aerospace, they have taken measures and chief administrative officer; and devel opment, has to the Space and Satellite Professionals to support export fi nancing. France now allows aircraft buyers to James Stottlemyer, vice president of been named to the International board. As Isotropic Sys- COMMERCIAL AVIATION suspend capital repayments for 12 months. health, safety and FAA’s Commercial tems’ co-founder and chief technology The Hong Kong government will gain a environment. Space Transportation Advisory Commit- officer, Turpin heads high-throughput minority stake in Cathay Pacifi c Airways In France, a dedicated €1 billion ($1.1 billion) fund, to which Air- Lockheed Martin tee. Damphousse will serve as the chair optical multibeam antenna design and as part of a HK$39 billion ($5 billion) bus, Dassault, Safran and Thales will contribute €200 million, will has promoted of the innovation and infrastructure development. bailout package that includes investment help small and midsize enterprises (SME) in need of capital. Yvonne Hodge to working group. from the carrier’s major shareholders. senior vice president MDA Corp. has hired U.S. Army HONORS AND ELECTIONS In Germany, the economic stabilization fund established for of enterprise busi- Col. (ret.) and retired NASA astro- George E. Bye has The International Air Transport Associa- companies with urgent liquidity needs is now open to the aviation ness transformation naut Tim Kopra as vice president of been named to the tion anticipates the global airline indus- sector . In France, a second fund with €300 million in subsidies over from space sector vice president of robotics and space operations, re- Titan CEO program’s try will return to profi tability in 2022, business innovation transformation sponsible for the work of the robotics inaugural Titan 100, after su‰ ering a combined loss of close three years will focus on SME digitalization and automation. and enterprise excellence. and space operations teams at MDA which recognizes to $100 billion for 2020-21 (page 14) . France will fund research with €1.5 billion over three years. In Dave Andrew has been promoted to facilities in Brampton and Ottawa, 100 Colorado execu- return, an Airbus A320 replacement is to be designed to enter into ASL Group CEO from CEO for Africa, Ontario; Saint-Hubert, Quebec; and tives for exceptional Daily  ights in Europe rose above 6,000 Asia and the leasing sector, with re- Houston. Kopra was a partner and leadership, vision on June 2 and stayed at that level for service in the early 2030s with 30% lower fuel burn . sponsibility for all fleet and leasing advisor at private equity firm Blue and passion. Bye is the founder of Bye four days, showing a post-lockdown re- In parallel, a hydrogen-powered, “zero CO2” narrowbody is to be operations. Andrew succeeds Hugh Bear Capital and before that was a Aerospace, a developer of innovative covery in air traž c is getting underway, developed for introduction in 2033-35. A new regional aircraft, either Flynn, who will retire as CEO in July NASA astronaut and vehicle integra- aircraft concepts. Titan CEO will con- Eurocontrol said (page 20). but will serve as a nonexecutive di- tion test engineer. fer the award during 2020. c hybrid electric or hydrogen-powered, should enter service in 2030. rector of ASL’s Aviation Holdings and Carbon recycler LanzaTech has launched In Germany, €1 billion has been allocated to a fund supporting as nonexecutive chairman of ASL’s To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files a sustainable aviation fuel spinoff, research—not limited to aerospace— and €1 billion is earmarked subsidiary airlines in Ireland, Belgium, LanzaJet, with $25 million in backing (no PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on for German airlines renewing their fl eets with aircraft that are at France and Hungary. companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence from Canadian and Japanese investors. K. Christopher Farkas has been Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone The company plans to begin production least 30% more fuel ež cient. promoted to Curtiss-Wright vice presi- U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S. in early 2022.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 FIRST TAKE PIPISTREL AIRCRAFT

Mitsubishi Aircraft has halted Space- The NATO Alliance Ground Surveil - Jet flight testing and production, say- lance Force conducted first flight of the ing it must first meet cost targets then RQ-4D Phoenix UAS on June 4 from achieve type certification before manu- Sigonella Air Base, Sicily. The system facturing will be considered (page 21). was delivered at the end of 2019.

DEFENSE Boeing flew the first of 72 Block III F/A- A scramjet-powered missile developed 18F Super Hornets for the U.S. Navy on under the DARPA/U.S. Air Force Hy- June 3 from St. Louis. GENERAL AVIATION personic Air-breathing Weapon Con- Pipistrel has received the first certifica- cept program was destroyed in a recent Aerospace Industrial Development tions for both an electric power unit and test accident. The missile is believed to Corp.’s AT-5 advanced jet trainer was an all-electric aircraft, with its two-seat have inadvertently separated from the photographed making its first flight on Velis Electro trainer receiving type cer- Boeing B-52 carrier aircraft during a June 10 from Ching Chuan Kang Air tification from EASA. captive-carry flight test. Base, Taiwan. South Korea plans to begin limited The U.S. Air Force has extended ini- Turkish Aerospace has revealed a mock- commercial urban air mobility service tial operational testing of the Boeing up of a second indigenous attack heli- in Seoul in 2025 following a large-scale, KC-46A tanker for at least three years, copter. The T-629 designation suggests public-private demonstration project until Boeing resolves issues with the it builds on the company’s T-625 Gokbey that will run from 2022-24. boom operator’s remote vision system. utility . Kaman Aerospace plans to fly a com- mercial unmanned aircraft based on its 16 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK K-Max heavy-lift helicopter in July or “Musk was just getting started, and some August. The optionally piloted aircraft of my colleagues did not believe he was for is to be on the market in 2021 (page 11). real and worthy of significant coverage,” AIRFLOW.AERO says Covault, who is now retired. “I felt dif- ferently and proceeded to do a major cover story. I was impressed with Musk because he was laser-focused on commercial space and reducing costs versus Boeing/McDonnell Douglas and Lockheed Martin. He had also hired one of the best rocket propulsion engineers in the world, Tom Mueller, who was key to SpaceX’s development of the Startup Airflow has announced plans to relatively simple and highly reliable Merlin develop a hybrid-electric short-takeoff- LOX/RP-1 engines.” and-landing aircraft for aerial logistics, In the article, respected physicist and able to carry a 500-lb. payload 250 nm engineer Michael Griffin explains in detail from a 300-ft. runway. how SpaceX’s model as a low-cost disruptor Beta Technologies and Joby Aviation are SpaceX’s May 30 launch of two astro- could be successful. Griffin later became to the International Space Station the first developers of urban air mobili- nauts NASA administrator and is now the Penta- on its Dragon capsule was a milestone ty vehicles to progress to the prototyp- gon’s chief technology officer. When Covault ing stage of the U.S. Air Force’s Agility for a company that was a 50-employee paid a return visit to SpaceX, framed copies Prime program. upstart when it was first featured on Avi- of the cover were hanging in Musk’s office ation Week’s cover on March 29, 2004. and at the company’s reception desk. EHang has received approval from the “David and Goliath: Can Tiny SpaceX Rock “Musk was singularly focused on defeating Civil Aviation Administration of Chi- Boeing?” the magazine asked. SpaceX na to begin commercial operation of the Boeing Delta IV Medium booster,” he founder Elon Musk did not interpret that its EHang 216 electric air taxi for un- says. “And that is exactly what SpaceX did.” positively. “It’s kind of a comical picture, to manned air logistics. be frank, because I think the implied an- Bombardier Aviation plans to lay off swer is ‘no,’” he recalled last month. Subscribers can read our 2004 2,500 employees throughout 2020, pri- But Craig Covault, the senior editor who profile of SpaceX and every issue back marily at its Canadian manufacturing wrote the five-page profile, begs to differ. to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com facilities, as it adjusts to lower post- COVID-19 business-jet deliveries. c

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY FIRST TAKE UP FRONT PIPISTREL AIRCRAFT KEVIN MICHAELS Mitsubishi Aircraft has halted Space- The NATO Alliance Ground Surveil - Jet flight testing and production, say- lance Force conducted first flight of the ing it must first meet cost targets then RQ-4D Phoenix UAS on June 4 from COVID-19 IS THE BIGGEST CRISIS The stunning fact is that it has never faced a major achieve type certification before manu- Sigonella Air Base, Sicily. The system of the jetliner era, and attention is justi- production reduction. This raises the question: Where facturing will be considered (page 21). was delivered at the end of 2019. fiably focused on air traffic, airline via- will these OEMs find the experience and insight to deal bility and production rates—with jetliner unit output with the unprecedented COVID-19 downturn? DEFENSE Boeing flew the first of 72 Block III F/A- likely to plummet 40-50% over the next two years. And what about supplier risks? It is no surprise A scramjet-powered missile developed 18F Super Hornets for the U.S. Navy on However, lurking beneath the surface are enormous that financial pressure is immense, and it is a result under the DARPA/U.S. Air Force Hy- June 3 from St. Louis. GENERAL AVIATION supply chain risks that extend well beyond supplier of a four-element sequence of events. First, suppliers personic Air-breathing Weapon Con- Pipistrel has received the first certifica- viability and attrition. What are these risks? endured OEM supply chain initiatives over the last cept program was destroyed in a recent Aerospace Industrial Development tions for both an electric power unit and Beginning with the OEMs, managing major rate decade that squeezed margins and reduced working test accident. The missile is believed to Corp.’s AT-5 advanced jet trainer was an all-electric aircraft, with its two-seat reductions is an incredibly complex undertaking for capital. Then they were asked to invest significant have inadvertently separated from the photographed making its first flight on Velis Electro trainer receiving type cer- supply chain organizations. Ordering and scheduling capital to ramp up production as Boeing and Airbus Boeing B-52 carrier aircraft during a June 10 from Ching Chuan Kang Air tification from EASA. assumptions go out the girded for a future of 60-70 captive-carry flight test. Base, Taiwan. window, and OEMs must single-aisles per month. This South Korea plans to begin limited negotiate with hundreds of Hidden Risks was followed by the 737 MAX The U.S. Air Force has extended ini- Turkish Aerospace has revealed a mock- commercial urban air mobility service suppliers—many already Unpacking the many production shutdown early tial operational testing of the Boeing up of a second indigenous attack heli- in Seoul in 2025 following a large-scale, under financial duress this year. Now COVID-19. KC-46A tanker for at least three years, copter. The T-629 designation suggests public-private demonstration project thanks to the Boeing 737 COVID-19 supply chain dangers Chris Celtruda, a vet- until Boeing resolves issues with the it builds on the company’s T-625 Gokbey that will run from 2022-24. MAX shutdown—to deter- eran industry executive, boom operator’s remote vision system. utility helicopter. mine fiscal responsibility Major Jetliner Production Reductions* recently stated that 20% of Kaman Aerospace plans to fly a com- for work in process and in- Since 1990 jetliner suppliers could fail mercial unmanned aircraft based on its ventory. Moreover, OEMs because of the pandemic. If 16 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK K-Max heavy-lift helicopter in July or need to monitor the viabili- A he is correct, a commercial “Musk was just getting started, and some August. The optionally piloted aircraft ty of thousands of suppliers 1993 1994 2002 2003 supply chain crisis could of my colleagues did not believe he was for is to be on the market in 2021 (page 11). several tiers down the chain 0 morph into a defense-indus- real and worthy of significant coverage,” AIRFLOW.AERO to identify potential failure NON trial base crisis in the U.S. points. They need to avoid -5% and Europe as crucial sub- says Covault, who is now retired. “I felt dif- the crisis that hit the global tier suppliers fail. ferently and proceeded to do a major cover automotive supply chain in For those suppliers that story. I was impressed with Musk because he 2011 when a single paint pig- -10% navigate the storm, major was laser-focused on commercial space and ment supplier went offline questions loom regard- reducing costs versus Boeing/McDonnell following the Fukushima -15% ing operations. Should Douglas and Lockheed Martin. He had also earthquake in Japan. they believe OEM produc- hired one of the best rocket propulsion Communicating accurate -20% tion-rate guidance? Should and credible information to they commit precious cap- engineers in the world, Tom Mueller, who suppliers during a crisis is -25% ital to long-lead items or was key to SpaceX’s development of the Startup Airflow has announced plans to crucial. Lack of OEM sup- conserve cash? What is relatively simple and highly reliable Merlin develop a hybrid-electric short-takeoff- ply chain function credibil- the appropriate level of LOX/RP-1 engines.” and-landing aircraft for aerial logistics, ity will lead suppliers to de- -30% production capacity? How *Unit volume reduction of 20% or more In the article, respected physicist and able to carry a 500-lb. payload 250 nm velop their own production deeply should they cut Source: Teal Group engineer Michael Griffin explains in detail from a 300-ft. runway. assumptions and capacity their workforce? Source: Teal Group how SpaceX’s model as a low-cost disruptor plans, which means they may not be ready when jet- Finally, suppliers face the same experience gap as Beta Technologies and Joby Aviation are liner demand returns. Or they could overorder, weak- OEMs. How many leadership teams have managed SpaceX’s May 30 launch of two astro- could be successful. Griffin later became to the International Space Station the first developers of urban air mobili- ening their financial position. OEM supply chain or- through a major production downturn? Are owners— nauts NASA administrator and is now the Penta- on its Dragon capsule was a milestone ty vehicles to progress to the prototyp- ganizations are often caught between the company’s particularly private equity firms—patient enough to gon’s chief technology officer. When Covault ing stage of the U.S. Air Force’s Agility desire to present an optimistic outlook to financial invest for the future and see this through? for a company that was a 50-employee paid a return visit to SpaceX, framed copies Prime program. markets and reality. Transparency and frequent com- All these risks point to the fact that the underap- upstart when it was first featured on Avi- of the cover were hanging in Musk’s office munication are of paramount importance. preciated supply chain function could be the most im- ation Week’s cover on March 29, 2004. and at the company’s reception desk. EHang has received approval from the The playbook for managing these crises is learned portant within OEMs for the foreseeable future. These “David and Goliath: Can Tiny SpaceX Rock “Musk was singularly focused on defeating Civil Aviation Administration of Chi- through experience. Boeing’s last major downturn was organizations must navigate an unprecedented crisis Boeing?” the magazine asked. SpaceX na to begin commercial operation of nearly 20 years ago, when it reduced rates from 595 and prepare for and shape a post-COVID supply chain. the Boeing Delta IV Medium booster,” he founder Elon Musk did not interpret that its EHang 216 electric air taxi for un- jetliners in 1999 to 274 by 2003. “There was a lot of “OEMs have the power to pick and choose winners on says. “And that is exactly what SpaceX did.” positively. “It’s kind of a comical picture, to manned air logistics. chaos during this crisis,” a former Boeing supply chain the other side of the crisis,” supply chain guru Cliff Collier executive tells me. “We didn’t have a full appreciation says. “And they need suppliers that are financially sol- be frank, because I think the implied an- Bombardier Aviation plans to lay off of the complexity of the situation, we didn’t thoroughly vent and able to invest. This means they will no longer swer is ‘no,’” he recalled last month. Subscribers can read our 2004 2,500 employees throughout 2020, pri- vet our assumptions, nor did we fully understand the be able to select suppliers primarily based on price.” c But Craig Covault, the senior editor who profile of SpaceX and every issue back marily at its Canadian manufacturing supplier challenges of ramping up after the crisis.” wrote the five-page profile, begs to differ. to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com facilities, as it adjusts to lower post- Most Boeing executives who navigated the ear- Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is managing director of COVID-19 business-jet deliveries. c ly-2000s downturn have retired. What about Airbus? AeroDynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 9 COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS MICHAEL BRUNO

DOES WESTERN AEROSPACE AND support within the A&D sector, as evidenced by 76% of defense need to be better protected participants voting in favor of that premise during the against Chinese investment? Should recent Aviation Week webinar. But the new U.S. CARES Washington directly invest in the U.S. Act shows it is easier said than done. Corporate Amer- defense industrial base? Does anyone know how a ica has an allergic reaction to the government getting a nationally reliable, albeit not centrally planned A&D direct stake. A&D companies would much rather Uncle marketplace works? So far, on the year-plus journey Sam pick up the costs of doing business—think tax to a “trusted capital marketplace,” the questions seem breaks, export-credit agency guarantees and govern- to outnumber the answers exponentially. ment-funded research and infrastructure—and let The U.S. is girding to ward off China’s influence on management make decisions while investors reap the the Western aerospace ecosystem after COVID-19. But profits. Taxpayers and their elected representatives as a recent Aviation Week Network webinar illustrates, may not agree whether that is enough. there is a long way to go before the right balance is achieved and the risk of messing up the world’s leading Chinese Investment in the U.S. Aviation aviation, space and defense supply base abates. “How far are we into the marathon? I think 15-20%,” Industry 2008-19: $798 million AirFinance Managing Partner Kirsten Bartok Touw said during the webinar. “We’re still figuring it out.” $400 Wall of Greenbacks Is the U.S. A&D sector at risk 300 of Chinese investors flooding in?

Tom Mayor, industrial manufacturing strategy prac- 200 tice leader at KPMG, agreed with the analogy. “We have to create a level playing field with a rapidly growing U.S. $ million global competitor,” he said during the webinar. “We can’t break the global economy while doing it. So we’re going 100 to have to step our way to leveling that playing field.” COVID-19 has made the whole Western A&D sector desperate for liquidity. The commercial side of industry is responsible for 70-80% of total business activity, mean- 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 ing the entire industrial foundation is being rocked by the novel coronavirus, including the defense industrial base. Source: National Committee on U.S.-China Relations While the Chinese have been investing in the U.S. for years, one fear is they could move in harder now Last but not least, saddling up with Uncle Sam could than they have before. “The [2008] financial crisis and have major ramifications for startups and companies in subsequent drop in demand for private planes offered the aerospace sector. By turning their backs on China, opportunities for Chinese investors in the general avi- these firms may lose out next decade on what is expected ation sector,” notes a May update to bilateral invest- to be the largest aviation system in the world. Addition- ment trends by the U.S.-supported National Commit- ally, retribution in the form of denying market access tee on U.S.-China Relations. What is more, the group’s could have consequences for overall market health. data shows a longstanding, integrated relationship has KPMG’s Mayor says part of the solution lies in har- grown despite wariness on both sides. nessing the West’s unrivaled private equity and ven- What can be done about it? There are no easy an- ture capital investment arena, along the lines of the swers. The administration of President Donald Trump “trusted capital” network being talked about in Wash- has had to water down initial chest-thumping proclama- ington. Touw expects whole new government agencies tions, too, because many questions remain unanswered. and institutions to emerge along the way. Both agree For instance, how does the U.S. government exert tech- more U.S. action is almost certain. nological controls without strangling industry? It hap- It could be a paradigm shift for a country that, A&D pened before with satellites in the 1990s, leaving an subsidies aside, has little history of industrial policy- opportunity for European competitors to emerge and making. But as Touw said: “We gradually need to take for China to focus on growing its own capabilities. more thought leadership in this space, more encour- What about investment? Should the U.S. government agement of the industrial base that we want to develop, have a sovereign wealth fund for A&D companies and and then actually start to make some investments and startups to fend off Chinese suitors? There is certainly [be] even more active.” c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS LEADING EDGE MICHAEL BRUNO GRAHAM WARWICK

DOES WESTERN AEROSPACE AND support within the A&D sector, as evidenced by 76% of THE RATIONALE FOR UNMANNING A camera under the fuselage provides a view of the defense need to be better protected participants voting in favor of that premise during the is pretty compelling. They slung load, which is carried on a cargo hook attached against Chinese investment? Should recent Aviation Week webinar. But the new U.S. CARES are often used for repetitive tasks such to a trolley that allows the external load to swing Washington directly invest in the U.S. Act shows it is easier said than done. Corporate Amer- as lifting loads, and their operating laterally. This maximizes the power available to lift defense industrial base? Does anyone know how a ica has an allergic reaction to the government getting a hours are limited by the pilots and not the machines. loads and helps the pilot maintain control of the slung nationally reliable, albeit not centrally planned A&D direct stake. A&D companies would much rather Uncle But the task of unmanning helicopters is challenging load, Dasmalchi said. marketplace works? So far, on the year-plus journey Sam pick up the costs of doing business—think tax because they tend to operate at low altitude in obsta- In the cockpit, a camera provides the ground- to a “trusted capital marketplace,” the questions seem breaks, export-credit agency guarantees and govern- cle-rich environments. station operator with a first-person view through the to outnumber the answers exponentially. ment-funded research and infrastructure—and let Kaman flew the first pilotless helicopter in 1957, windscreen. Another camera provides a view of the The U.S. is girding to ward off China’s influence on management make decisions while investors reap the a remotely controlled HTK-1. In 2011, an unmanned gauges on the instrument panel. A portable mainte- the Western aerospace ecosystem after COVID-19. But profits. Taxpayers and their elected representatives version of the company’s K-Max external-lift heli- nance computer provides a backup cockpit view to as a recent Aviation Week Network webinar illustrates, may not agree whether that is enough. copter deployed to Afghanistan with the U.S. Marine the ground control station. there is a long way to go before the right balance is Corps. Over 33 months, two helicopters carried more Development of the commercial heavy-duty UAS achieved and the risk of messing up the world’s leading than 4.5 million lb. of supplies to forward bases. builds on experimentation underway with the U.S. Chinese Investment in the U.S. Aviation aviation, space and defense supply base abates. Now, Kaman is developing a heavy-duty commercial Marine Corps using two unmanned K-Maxs originally “How far are we into the marathon? I think 15-20%,” Industry 2008-19: $798 million unmanned aircraft system (UAS) based on the FAA-cer- produced for the Office of Naval Research. The two AirFinance Managing Partner Kirsten Bartok Touw tified K-Max. Flight testing is expected to begin in July helicopters were deployed to Afghanistan in 2011-14, said during the webinar. “We’re still figuring it out.” or August, and the 12,000-lb. optionally piloted aircraft carrying more than 4.5 million lb. of cargo. $400 (see diagram) is expected to be on the market in 2021. Wall of Greenbacks Is the U.S. A&D sector at risk 300 Load Lifter of Chinese investors flooding in? Kaman is developing an

Tom Mayor, industrial manufacturing strategy prac- 200 optionally piloted K-Max tice leader at KPMG, agreed with the analogy. “We have to create a level playing field with a rapidly growing U.S. $ million global competitor,” he said during the webinar. “We can’t “We have five systems already spoken for,” break the global economy while doing it. So we’re going 100 Romin Dasmalchi, senior director of govern- to have to step our way to leveling that playing field.” ment business development, told a Helicopter COVID-19 has made the whole Western A&D sector Association International webinar on June 4. Ka- PHOTO CREDIT desperate for liquidity. The commercial side of industry man sees roles in firefighting, humanitarian assis- 0 is responsible for 70-80% of total business activity, mean- tance, oil and gas, logistics and medical missions. KAMAN AEROSPACE 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 ing the entire industrial foundation is being rocked by the Kaman plans to certify the K-Max as an optionally novel coronavirus, including the defense industrial base. Source: National Committee on U.S.-China Relations piloted aircraft so it can be flown manned to a work While the Chinese have been investing in the U.S. site and be converted there to unmanned operation for years, one fear is they could move in harder now Last but not least, saddling up with Uncle Sam could to continue flying into darkness or deteriorating In May 2019, Kaman was awarded a contract to re - than they have before. “The [2008] financial crisis and have major ramifications for startups and companies in weather. Dasmalchi cites the example of being able to turn the two aircraft to service and replace the orig- subsequent drop in demand for private planes offered the aerospace sector. By turning their backs on China, continue fighting fires into the night. inal Lockheed Martin-developed unmanned system opportunities for Chinese investors in the general avi- these firms may lose out next decade on what is expected The unmanned system is being developed by with updated equipment. The helicopters, designated ation sector,” notes a May update to bilateral invest- to be the largest aviation system in the world. Addition- Kaman and an unidentified partner using commercial CQ-24As, are being used to develop autonomy tech- ment trends by the U.S.-supported National Commit- ally, retribution in the form of denying market access off-the-shelf technology. “There are components that nology for unmanned air logistics. tee on U.S.-China Relations. What is more, the group’s could have consequences for overall market health. have already been out there flying for a long time. It Initially, the optionally piloted K-Max—certified un- data shows a longstanding, integrated relationship has KPMG’s Mayor says part of the solution lies in har- saves money, it saves weight, and you get better reli- der FAA Part 21.17b—will have GPS-based autonomy, grown despite wariness on both sides. nessing the West’s unrivaled private equity and ven- ability and redundancy,” Dasmalchi said. navigating via waypoints that are preprogrammed but What can be done about it? There are no easy an- ture capital investment arena, along the lines of the Kaman completed critical design reviews in De- which can be changed in flight by the ground operator. swers. The administration of President Donald Trump “trusted capital” network being talked about in Wash- cember for the hardware and February for the soft- Under the Marine Corps program, Kaman is experi- has had to water down initial chest-thumping proclama- ington. Touw expects whole new government agencies ware. A ground-test readiness review was conducted menting with sensor-based detect-and-avoid technol- tions, too, because many questions remain unanswered. and institutions to emerge along the way. Both agree in April, and installation of the system in the aircraft ogy, a capability that could in the future be incorpo- For instance, how does the U.S. government exert tech- more U.S. action is almost certain. is planned to be completed in June. “We’ve moved rated into the commercial K-Max UAS. nological controls without strangling industry? It hap- It could be a paradigm shift for a country that, A&D along nicely, even with the pandemic,” he said. Higher levels of autonomy, such as those being de- pened before with satellites in the 1990s, leaving an subsidies aside, has little history of industrial policy- The K-Max UAS is modified with a mission com- veloped and demonstrated by Lockheed Martin com- opportunity for European competitors to emerge and making. But as Touw said: “We gradually need to take puter, dual flight-control computers, and line-of-sight pany Sikorsky under its Matrix Technology program, for China to focus on growing its own capabilities. more thought leadership in this space, more encour- and beyond-line-of-sight data link transceivers. Dual are needed to unlock the full potential of unmanned What about investment? Should the U.S. government agement of the industrial base that we want to develop, air-data computers, GPS/inertial sensors and a rotorcraft. But once certified, the K-Max heavy-lift have a sovereign wealth fund for A&D companies and and then actually start to make some investments and altimeter are installed. Redundant electric actuators UAS will represent a significant step forward for un- startups to fend off Chinese suitors? There is certainly [be] even more active.” c are fitted to the pilot controls. manned aviation—64 years after the HTK-1. c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 11 DEFENSE > Air-to-air missiles west and east p. 28 F-35 engine p. 32 U.S. Army Vintage Racer p. 33 Australian radar upgrade p. 34

The Next Bomber? STAFF SGT. JACOB BAILEY/U.S. AIR FORCE > “ARSENAL PLANE” PROTOTYPING > AFRL DEMONSTRATED NEW BUDGET IN DISCUSSION CLEAVER MUNITION

Steve Trimble Washington n “Arsenal Plane” has rapidly emerged as a short-term Air-dropping palletized munitions from priority for the U.S. Air Force, but an internal debate C-17s and C-130s is one option for solv- continues over the type of aircraft to use, potentially ing a strike-power capacity problem. Aaffecting the service’s existing command structure and 120 bombers by 2032 as the B-2 and the Northrop Grumman B-21 program. B-1B fleets are retired. Gunzinger, a former bomber pilot, A proposal to modify Lockheed in more long-range munitions to sup- forecasts the Air Force will order C-130s and Boeing C-17s to air-drop port the Arsenal Plane concept. about 120 B-21s by 2040. Combined existing and new long-range muni- All the parties involved agree that with 75 B-52s, however, the fleet would tions is now favored as a short-term the airborne component of the Air still be about 30 aircraft short of the solution by the Air Force Warfighting Force’s long-range strike capability minimum deemed required by the Air Integration Capability (AFWIC) office, is inadequate, even after Northrop Force today. Closing that gap—either which is charged with developing new Grumman delivers at least 100 B-21s, by loading long-range munitions on ex- operational concepts by the Air Staff. which are expected to replace a fleet isting airlifters, developing a new air- Air Force Global Strike Command of 20 Northrop B-2s and 62 Rockwell craft for that purpose or buying more (AFGSC), which has responsibility for B-1Bs and operate alongside about 75 B-21s—is driving the internal debate. the bomber fleet and inventory of inter- Boeing B-52s. At its core, the debate is over cost- continental ballistic missiles, prefers “What we see is that no matter effec tiveness and capacity. A stealthy developing a new aircraft optimized how big our bomber force is, the ca- bomber such as the B-21A is more for the mission, rather than seeking to pacity that the Joint Force needs is expensive than an Arsenal Plane but borrow strike capacity from an already always more and more,” says Maj. needs less expensive, unpowered muni- overburdened air mobility fleet. Gen. Clinton Hinote, deputy director tions because they can be released clos- Neither proposal is endorsed by the of the AFWIC, which develops new op- er to the target. On the other hand, the Mitchell Institute, the think tank arm erational concepts with the Air Staff. B-21A is still in the early development of the Air Force Association (AFA). The Air Force’s latest estimate of phase, so Northrop may need more In a prepublication report obtained the requirement calls for a fleet of at than a decade to deliver a significant by Aviation Week, Col. (ret.) Mark least 220 bombers, Gen. Timothy Ray, number of aircraft. Gunzinger, the institute’s director the head of AFGSC, told reporters in In 2006, the Congressional Budget of Future Aerospace Concepts and early April. Office considered an Arsenal Aircraft Capa bility Assessments, argues the According to a fleet forecast in based on a Boeing C-17 loaded with a most cost-effective solution is to buy the Mitchell Institute report, the Air supersonic cruise missile and conclud- more B-21 bombers rather than invest Force inventory could decline to about ed that it would be less effective than

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE Air-to-air missiles west and east p. 28 F-35 engine p. 32 U.S. Army Vintage Racer p. 33 Australian radar upgrade p. 34 > An Inventory Estimate for the U.S. Air Force Bomber Fleet

425 A new estimate of the U.S. Air Force’s 400 375 bomber inventory shows a long-term 350 shortfall, which is prompting calls to 325 Inventory will not recover to fiscal 2020 level bolster capacity by adding an Arsenal 300 until the mid-2030s Plane or buying more B-21s. 275 250 A a penetrating bomber and require an 225 extra $3.5 billion to order more C-17s. 200 As the Pentagon locked in require- 175 Bomber bathtub ments for the B-21A program four 150 years later, an Air Force-funded study 125 by Rand compared the costs of a pen- Bomber Inventory Air Force Total 100 etrating bomber versus an Arsenal 75 50 Plane concept. If the U.S. military en- gages in at least 20 days of airstrikes 25 0 over a 30-year period, the 2010 study 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 concluded a penetrating bomber would Fiscal Year be more affordable than the required STAFF SGT. JACOB BAILEY/U.S. AIR FORCE Source: Mitchell Institute investment in the Arsenal Plane. Source: Mitchell Institute Even though the Air Force award- because it can increase munition ca- some airpower experts still reject the The Next Bomber? ed Northrop a contract to develop pacity significantly in the near term. idea that anything less than a stealthy the B-21A in October 2015, however, “It’s all about capacity and that bomber is adequate. “ARSENAL PLANE” PROTOTYPING AFRL DEMONSTRATED NEW the debate has continued. Will Roper, you’ve got to create enough capacity Instead of lobbing long-range mis- > > then director of the Strategic Capa- so that long-range punch is really a siles, the B-21 is designed to get close BUDGET IN DISCUSSION CLEAVER MUNITION bilities Office within the Office of the punch,” Hinote says. “This is why we enough to a target to use short-range, Secretary of Defense, unveiled an Ar- think that there’s a real possibility here direct-attack weapons. Such munitions senal Plane concept in February 2016, for using cargo platforms to be able to do not need to carry fuel and propul- showing a Lockheed C-130-like aircraft increase the capacity of fires.” sion systems and thus can be smaller in Steve Trimble Washington dispensing palletized munitions. Not everyone agrees with that proportion to the size of their warhead. A year later, Roper became assis- approach. As the commander of the “Size matters, since the number of n “Arsenal Plane” has rapidly emerged as a short-term Air-dropping palletized munitions from tant secretary of the Air Force for ac- Air Force’s bomber fleet, Ray told re- weapons that can be delivered per air- priority for the U.S. Air Force, but an internal debate C-17s and C-130s is one option for solv- quisition, technology and logistics, and porters in early April that he does not craft sortie decreases as weapon size ing a strike-power capacity problem. the Arsenal Plane moved to the Air want a commander to have to choose increases,” Gunzinger writes in the continues over the type of aircraft to use, potentially Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). between using a C-17 for either weap- Mitchell Institute report. affecting the service’s existing command structure and 120 bombers by 2032 as the B-2 and In January, the AFRL completed the ons or airlift capacity. In addition to capacity, Gunzinger A also questions the cost of an Arsenal the Northrop Grumman B-21 program. B-1B fleets are retired. first test of a new palletized munition “When you think about using a cargo Gunzinger, a former bomber pilot, dropped by an MC-130J. A picture of plane, you’re in competition for other Plane’s required inventory of long- A proposal to modify Lockheed in more long-range munitions to sup- forecasts the Air Force will order the new weapon—the Cargo Launch C-130s and Boeing C-17s to air-drop port the Arsenal Plane concept. about 120 B-21s by 2040. Combined Expendable Air Vehicles with Ex- Cost of Bombers vs. Cruise Missiles existing and new long-range muni- All the parties involved agree that with 75 B-52s, however, the fleet would tended Range (Cleaver)—showed six tions is now favored as a short-term the airborne component of the Air still be about 30 aircraft short of the munitions on each pallet. A follow-up AN I $1,400 $2,500 solution by the Air Force Warfighting Force’s long-range strike capability minimum deemed required by the Air test involving an airdrop from C-17s 20 days of conflict Costs favor Integration Capability (AFWIC) office, is inadequate, even after Northrop Force today. Closing that gap—either was scheduled in April. 1,200 costs turn in favor of penetrating bomber penetrating bomber 2,000 in 10 or 15 days which is charged with developing new Grumman delivers at least 100 B-21s, by loading long-range munitions on ex- The Cleaver testing satisfied AFRL 1,000 operational concepts by the Air Staff. which are expected to replace a fleet isting airlifters, developing a new air- that C-130s and C-17s could adapt 1,500 Air Force Global Strike Command of 20 Northrop B-2s and 62 Rockwell craft for that purpose or buying more one of the core capabilities for both 800

600 (AFGSC), which has responsibility for B-1Bs and operate alongside about 75 B-21s—is driving the internal debate. aircraft: airdrop. The C-17 also has 1,000 the bomber fleet and inventory of inter- Boeing B-52s. At its core, the debate is over cost- demonstrated the capability to release 400 Cruise Missile Cost Standoff Aircraft + Hypersonic Cruise Missiles continental ballistic missiles, prefers “What we see is that no matter effec tiveness and capacity. A stealthy air-launched rockets from the cargo Costs (U.S. $ million) Total 500 Penetrating Bomber Cost Standoff Aircraft + JASSM-ER developing a new aircraft optimized how big our bomber force is, the ca- bomber such as the B-21A is more bay. In 2006, a C-17 was used to airdrop 200 Total Costs Fiscal 2020 (U.S. $ million) Total Penetrating Bomber + Direct Attack Weapons (Procurement + Operations and Support) (Procurement (Procurement + Operations and Support) (Procurement for the mission, rather than seeking to pacity that the Joint Force needs is expensive than an Arsenal Plane but a launcher for a hypersonic boost-glide 0 0 borrow strike capacity from an already always more and more,” says Maj. needs less expensive, unpowered muni- missile. The aircraft also is used by the 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 overburdened air mobility fleet. Gen. Clinton Hinote, deputy director tions because they can be released clos- Missile Defense Agency to test inter- Days of Conflict in 30-Year Period Days of Conflict in 30-Year Period Neither proposal is endorsed by the of the AFWIC, which develops new op- er to the target. On the other hand, the ceptors by dropping surrogates of me- Sources: RAND and Mitchell Institute Mitchell Institute, the think tank arm erational concepts with the Air Staff. B-21A is still in the early development dium-range ballistic missiles. of the Air Force Association (AFA). The Air Force’s latest estimate of phase, so Northrop may need more The AFRL completed the tests airlift requirements,” Ray said. “I think range munitions, versus a bomber’s

In a prepublication report obtained the requirement calls for a fleet of at than a decade to deliver a significant weeks before the Defense Department the Sources:Arsenal RAND and Mitchell Plane Institute concept is probably more affordable, precision-guided by Aviation Week, Col. (ret.) Mark least 220 bombers, Gen. Timothy Ray, number of aircraft. completed plans for the fiscal 2022 bud- better defined as more of a clean-sheet bombs. A conflict with China or Russia Gunzinger, the institute’s director the head of AFGSC, told reporters in In 2006, the Congressional Budget get proposal. “We are in discussions approach to a platform that can afford- could generate a massive list of targets. of Future Aerospace Concepts and early April. Office considered an Arsenal Aircraft right now about how we proceed to ably and rapidly fill the gap.” “Using tens of thousands of very Capa bility Assessments, argues the According to a fleet forecast in based on a Boeing C-17 loaded with a prototyping and fielding,” Hinote says. While Hinote and Ray debate long-range standoff weapons that cost most cost-effective solution is to buy the Mitchell Institute report, the Air supersonic cruise missile and conclud- For AFWIC, arming C-130s and C-17s whether an existing or clean-sheet a million dollars or more each is simply more B-21 bombers rather than invest Force inventory could decline to about ed that it would be less effective than with long-range weapons is attractive design is better for an Arsenal Plane, not affordable,” Gunzinger writes.c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 13 FABLES OF THE RECONSTRUCTION

COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Emirates-U.S. airline tie-up? p. 18 Alitalia relaunch p. 19 European LCCs p. 20 SpaceJet pause p. 21

FABLES OF THE RECONSTRUCTION > AIRLINES MAY LOSE $100 BILLION THROUGH 2021 > ANNUAL PASSENGER TOTAL IS REVERTING TO THE 2006 LEVEL

Rebuilding airline networks will take time and will be a ected by new, highly volatile variables.

Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Adrian Schofield Auckland, Ben Goldstein and Sean Broderick Washington he airline industry remains in the early stages of an un- Which aircraft should be fl own? And how much of the rebuilding can be precedented crisis. Demand, while beginning to recover, modeled on past fl ows? remains minimal, and cash is fl owing out at stunning The answers, much like the recov- speed. A wave of bankruptcies has yet to materialize, ery’s expected path, will diƒ er based T on specifi c circumstances. but only because governments were quick to bail out airlines “Normally, network planning is identifi ed as being too big, or too economically important, to fail. one-third math, one-third trial and error and one-third gut feeling,” says Now that there are early signs questions they are pondering: Which Philipp Goedeking, managing director of recovery, airlines face their next markets should come back online of consultancy Avinomics. “During major challenge—quickly rebuilding fi rst, and how should they be served? the coronavirus pandemic, it’s really networks that took decades to con- Does local traffic have priority over only 10% math. There will have to be struct and optimize. Among the key connecting markets or vice versa? a lot of experimenting.”

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FABLES OF THE RECONSTRUCTION

COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Emirates-U.S. airline tie-up? p. 18 Alitalia relaunch p. 19 European LCCs p. 20 SpaceJet pause p. 21

travel restrictions have begun to come standstill with little data to support down in many parts of the world, most forward-booking estimates has airline remain in place for long-haul flying. leaders understandably nervous. Some That shifts the focus to domestic and contend that discounting will not help

OF THE short-haul operations. Lufthansa, for the recovery, because the demand dip FABLES RECONSTRUCTION example, recorded less than 2% of its is more linked to health concerns than AIRLINES MAY LOSE $100 BILLION THROUGH 2021 ANNUAL PASSENGER TOTAL IS REVERTING TO THE 2006 LEVEL normal traƒ c in April but is now ex- economic considerations. > > panding to 15% in the second half of Despite this, and perhaps in re- JOERIESAIATIO.ET June. Published schedules through sponse to historically low load factors September have capacity back to 40% even with major capacity reductions, of precrisis levels, but the airline will fares are falling. IATA fi gures showed serve 70% of its previous long-haul domestic ticket prices were down 23% points and 90% of European destina- in May compared to a year ago. Inter- tions. In other words, its network will national fares did not drop as fast, but be broad but not deep. Many markets a near-complete lack of capacity to sell will be served but at low frequency. likely helped support pricing. That pattern is popular with other Many airlines expect international carriers operating di’ erent business ticket prices to drop, too, as capaci- models. EasyJet is fl ying 30% of nor- ty begins to return over the coming mal July-September levels but will be weeks. Europe, in particular, bears covering 75% of its network by August. watching as more governments move Given the trend of broad but lim- to lift travel restrictions. ited demand, European airlines are While each region will face unique restarting their networks with small sets of restrictions and COVID-19-con- aircraft. Beginning June 15, Austrian tamination risks that will infl uence how Airlines is operating the fi rst routes, airlines proceed, several general global after an almost complete three-month trends are expected to emerge. Domes- lock-down, using mainly Embraer 190s tic routes will generally recover fi rst, and de Havilland Dash 8-400s. followed by short-haul international Another element of pandemic-in- markets, with most long-haul ser- duced passenger behavior wreaking vices lagging. Leisure-traƒ c demand havoc on airline planning is last-min- will lead recovery in many regions, as ute booking. International Air Trans- individuals relieve pent-up urges of port Association (IATA) data show a wanderlust while companies remain preference for very late booking—61% conservative with travel budgets. Across networks, fre- Projected 2020 Airline Performance quencies will build slow- By Region ly, and in some cases—the Region Passenger Demand Passenger Capacity Net Profi t U.S. being a primary ex- (revenue passenger kilometers) (available seat kilometers) (U.S. $ billion) ample—the larger air- AFRICA -58.5% -50.4% -$2.0 lines’ desires to rebuild ASIA-PACIFIC -53.8 -39.2 -29.0 balance sheets will take Rebuilding airline networks will take time and will EUROPE -56.4 -42.9 -21.5 priority over replicating pre pandemic capacity. be a ected by new, highly volatile variables. LATIN AMERICA -57.4 -43.3 -4.0 The Asia-Pacific re- MIDDLE EAST -56.1 -46.1 -4.8 gion is following the pat- -52.6 -35.2 -23.1 tern, with many domes- Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Adrian Schofield Auckland, Ben Goldstein and Sean Broderick Washington GLOBAL -54.7 -40.4 -$84.3 tic markets bouncing Source: IAA back quickly as internal he airline industry remains in the early stages of an un- Which aircraft should be fl own? And For hub carriers, a top-to-bottom of passengers are buying their tickets travel restrictions ease and airlines how much of the rebuilding can be rebuild should, in theory, start with within three days of departure, com- reestablish routes, generally with precedented crisis. Demand, while beginning to recover, modeled on past fl ows? long-haul connections, as they have pared to 46% before the crisis. The fewer frequencies. Attention is shift- remains minimal, and cash is fl owing out at stunning The answers, much like the recov- the most logistical limitations. share of passengers booking 12 days ing to the more complicated question speed. A wave of bankruptcies has yet to materialize, ery’s expected path, will diƒ er based Asia-Pacifi c evening departures arrive or more prior to their planned fl ight, of how and when international ser- T on specifi c circumstances. in Europe in the morning and must be is down to 8% from 20%. vices can be restored. but only because governments were quick to bail out airlines “Normally, network planning is timed to abide by curfews while max- The shift means visibility of actu- identifi ed as being too big, or too economically important, to fail. one-third math, one-third trial and imizing passenger connections. Most al loads is more limited than before, ASIAPACIFIC error and one-third gut feeling,” says lucrative are long-haul-to-long-haul but there is also more significant up- Several Asia-Pacifi c airlines have be- Now that there are early signs questions they are pondering: Which Philipp Goedeking, managing director connections, in this case Asia via Eu- ward potential right up to departure. gun to tentatively add more routes to of recovery, airlines face their next markets should come back online of consultancy Avinomics. “During rope to North America or Africa. Historical volumes for specific city their bare bones international net- major challenge—quickly rebuilding fi rst, and how should they be served? the coronavirus pandemic, it’s really But the pandemic’s realities mean pairs at certain times of the day are works, even though travel restrictions networks that took decades to con- Does local traffic have priority over only 10% math. There will have to be this theory must be altered signifi- also of limited value. have yet to ease signifi cantly. struct and optimize. Among the key connecting markets or vice versa? a lot of experimenting.” cantly. While domestic and regional Coming out of an almost complete Restarting with low frequency al-

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lows these airlines to meet the limited through their airports starting in ternational service due to COVID-19 demand that exists while positioning June. Most foreign travelers will not concerns. The rules were eased slight- themselves to respond when more be allowed to end their journeys in ly on June 8, but carriers are still lim- markets reopen. In some cases, air- Hong Kong or Singapore, but they will ited to a few weekly flights. lines have been initially focusing on be able to connect there. Korean Air and Asiana Airlines routes that have strong cargo and This is an important step for Ca- said in May they intended to add sev- passenger demand. thay and SIA. Although many of their eral flights to mainland China to their For most carriers in the region, strat- key markets for connecting flights June schedule, if approvals could be egies to rebuild international networks remain closed, they can position obtained. But because the restrictions will depend heavily on government themselves to capture transit traffic were not loosened sufficiently, both decisions to reduce cross-border re- as it begins to return. They can also airlines were forced to shelve these strictions. Asia-Pacific countries have ensure that other major connecting plans. Their schedules now list one widely contrasting rates of progress hubs in Asia and elsewhere do not route each through July. in containing the pandemic, meaning steal a march on them and gain a This situation highlights that re- restrictions will ease at different times competitive advantage. suming international services will require flexibility for many Projected U.S. Domestic Traffic Recovery . Plans will often have to be changed at short by Carrier Types notice if governments do not 110 open borders as expected, or

100% if new spikes in coronavirus cases arise. 90 Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand plan to estab - 80 lish a travel bubble that would allow all passengers to fly be- 70 Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways tween the two countries with Network Carriers* no quarantine requirements. 60 Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says Southwest Airlines if it is successful, this could be 50 Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers** a template for opening other

40 international markets one by one. A joint industry/gov- 30 ernment working group with 2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 representatives from both countries has presented a re-

*Includes American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. port on how the travel bubble **Includes Frontier Airlines, Spirit Airlines and Allegiant Air. Source: Delta Airort onsultants could be implemented.

and will often be difficult to predict. Discussions have begun among NORTH AMERICA Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Ca- some Asia-Pacific governments about In the U.S., carriers are restoring thay Pacific are particularly focused easing border and quarantine restric- capacity at an uneven pace, largely on international markets reopening, tions to allow some essential travel to depending on their relative exposure as they have no domestic networks. resume. These will initially be bilater- to international flying. -U.S. Cathay Chairman Patrick Healy says al arrangements between countries so flying remains off limits to all but es- that the carrier is “even more vul - that procedures and safeguards can sential travelers, cutting off a major nerable” to international restrictions be rigorously monitored. Such pro- market for carriers from both coun- than others because it is “wholly grams may expand to multilateral tries; generates 22% of its reliant on cross-border travel.” In agreements in the longer term. annual revenues from U.S. flying. most cases, there is little clarity on China and South Korea were Among the Big Three U.S. legacy when and how restrictions in other among the first to establish proto - carriers, American Airlines is add- markets will be lifted, SIA CEO Goh cols for approved essential business ing back flights most aggressively Choon Phong says. This adds a ma- travelers, starting May 1. China and in July, with plans to operate 55% of jor challenge to network recovery Singapore began a similar program in its domestic schedule, boosted by a planning. early June. These three countries are heavier focus on domestic flying. Del- SIA and Cathay also have a high- also holding talks with other Asia-Pa- ta Air Lines and United Airlines— er proportion of international transit cific countries with a view to forming with greater exposure to long-haul traffic via their hubs than most other essential travel agreements. markets across the Atlantic and Pa- airlines. They rely on connecting traf- For many Asian airlines, access to cific—are taking a more conservative fic flows, such as those between West- China is vital to their networks, and stance, adding back 37% and 30% of ern Europe and Australasia. they want to begin reopening routes to domestic routes, respectively. Singapore and Hong Kong both Chinese cities. However, the Chinese “American Airlines went into the decided to allow transit passengers government has heavily restricted in- crisis in worse shape than Delta or

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION lows these airlines to meet the limited through their airports starting in ternational service due to COVID-19 United in terms of its balance sheet, as many leased aircraft as those two such routes on U.S. schedules before demand that exists while positioning June. Most foreign travelers will not concerns. The rules were eased slight- but in terms of a domestic rebound, plus Southwest combined. the pandemic. themselves to respond when more be allowed to end their journeys in ly on June 8, but carriers are still lim- its network exposure is the best of the “American’s new fleet, and the ex- markets reopen. In some cases, air- Hong Kong or Singapore, but they will ited to a few weekly flights. three,” says Seth Kaplan, an airline pense associated with that fleet, will GLOBAL OUTLOOK lines have been initially focusing on be able to connect there. Korean Air and Asiana Airlines analyst with Kaplan Research. “The force it to fly more than the network IATA expects the recovery to be slow, routes that have strong cargo and This is an important step for Ca- said in May they intended to add sev- reality is that Delta and United are might support initially,” Swelbar says. with aggregate global airline profit- passenger demand. thay and SIA. Although many of their eral flights to mainland China to their structured as more global airlines. Meanwhile, Southwest has a ability returning in 2022. Profits then For most carriers in the region, strat- key markets for connecting flights June schedule, if approvals could be That’s a great thing to be when the simpler, domestic-heavy network would be “in line with longer-term egies to rebuild international networks remain closed, they can position obtained. But because the restrictions global economy is going well, but to stimulate and tremendous fleet growth trends for passenger and will depend heavily on government themselves to capture transit traffic were not loosened sufficiently, both right now, you’d probably rather have flexibility. The carrier has more cargo traffic,” Chief Economist Brian decisions to reduce cross-border re- as it begins to return. They can also airlines were forced to shelve these American’s network.” than 100 older Boeing 737NGs that Pearce says. strictions. Asia-Pacific countries have ensure that other major connecting plans. Their schedules now list one Beyond the Big Three, the coun- it could park or keep flying and new IATA’s nearer-term outlook sees widely contrasting rates of progress hubs in Asia and elsewhere do not route each through July. try’s domestic carriers are restoring 737 MAXs on the way. a relatively steep recovery of global in containing the pandemic, meaning steal a march on them and gain a This situation highlights that re- capacity at an accelerated clip in July, “Southwest is the wild card,” Swel- airline traffic, down as much as 95% restrictions will ease at different times competitive advantage. suming international services will bolstering the view that international bar says. “Will they get smaller, or year-over-year, to a full-year figure require flexibility for many exposure is a near-term impediment will they take advantage of the op - of 54% below 2019. Next year, traffic Projected U.S. Domestic Traffic Recovery Asian airlines. Plans will often to recovery. Southwest Airlines and portunity to increase their share in will be 29% below the 2019 baseline, have to be changed at short JetBlue Airways, for example, will critical markets?” but up 55% from the anomalous 2020 by Carrier Types notice if governments do not operate 62% and 50% of their respec- Early indications from the airline results. 110 open borders as expected, or tive original schedules, while smaller suggest the latter. “Our progression Pearce says the pattern is similar to how the industry emerged from 100% if new spikes in coronavirus leisure carriers such as Allegiant Air from April all the way through to the cases arise. and Spirit Airlines will operate at 85- last few weeks of December can ba- the global financial crisis in 2008 90 Meanwhile, Australia and 90% of last year’s capacity. sically be thought of as one flat, long, and 2009, albeit with losses at “a New Zealand plan to estab - More aggressive growth by small- steady ramp-up of capacity,” says much larger scale.” 80 lish a travel bubble that would er carriers and conservative advances Southwest Chief Commercial Officer The IATA guidance is based on allow all passengers to fly be- by the Big Three would be a repeat Andrew Watterson. several assumptions but contains 70 Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways tween the two countries with of the post-Great Recession recovery. DAC’s outlook for the U.S. market significant uncertainty. IATA as- Network Carriers* no quarantine requirements. Delta Airport Consultants (DAC) sees projects what it calls a “square-root- sumes the novel coronavirus can be 60 Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says shaped” recovery, combining a steep, contained, a second wave of infec- Southwest Airlines this as a likely scenario, with one no- if it is successful, this could be table exception—Southwest will join initial rise followed by years of min- tions can be avoided, and testing will 50 Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers** a template for opening other its smaller competitors in the more imal growth that mimics that math be effective in 2021. The effects of a

40 international markets one aggressive camp. symbol. Strict capacity discipline by recession, a slow reopening of mar- by one. A joint industry/gov- The Dallas-based carrier’s current the Big Three—Swelbar says annual kets and a cautious return of business 30 ernment working group with schedule has its late-2020 capacity capacity-increase percentage rates travel are also factored in. Important- 2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 representatives from both on par with year-earlier figures. The for American, Delta and United may ly, the forecast is based on a vaccine countries has presented a re- aggressiveness is a sign that South- lag behind GDP growth—will keep not yet becoming available through next year. The pace of the recovery *Includes American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. port on how the travel bubble west is prepared to leverage its pre- the U.S. market from becoming a **Includes Frontier Airlines, Spirit Airlines and Allegiant Air. Source: Delta Airort onsultants could be implemented. dominantly domestic network to grab yield-eroding market-share battle. could therefore accelerate should a market share from competitors with More headwinds will come from vaccine be found sooner. and will often be difficult to predict. Discussions have begun among NORTH AMERICA weaker balance sheets and hubs to what Swelbar says will be a return Based on the traffic growth, IATA Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Ca- some Asia-Pacific governments about In the U.S., carriers are restoring rebuild that rely on at least some in- of the “hassle factor.” Much as new now believes the airline industry will thay Pacific are particularly focused easing border and quarantine restric- capacity at an uneven pace, largely ternational feed. screening protocols rendered short lose $84 billion in 2020 and $15.8 bil- on international markets reopening, tions to allow some essential travel to depending on their relative exposure The strategy is reminiscent of the flights less practical and all flights lion in 2021, breaking a decade-long as they have no domestic networks. resume. These will initially be bilater- to international flying. Canada-U.S. period after 9/11, when Southwest’s la- less convenient after 9/11, new streak of full-year profits. The indus- Cathay Chairman Patrick Healy says al arrangements between countries so flying remains off limits to all but es- bor-cost advantages, combined with health-screening requirements will try made a $220 billion net profit in that the carrier is “even more vul - that procedures and safeguards can sential travelers, cutting off a major financial frailty among its largest U.S. add time to travel. The Airports 2010-19, and the 2016-19 profit was nerable” to international restrictions be rigorously monitored. Such pro- market for carriers from both coun- peers, left it in position to strike—and Council International suggests build- $120 billion. than others because it is “wholly grams may expand to multilateral tries; Air Canada generates 22% of its strike it did. While American, Delta ing in 1 hr. or more per departure, at IATA expects 2020 revenues to reliant on cross-border travel.” In agreements in the longer term. annual revenues from U.S. flying. and United (and their premerger least at the outset. fall by 50% to $419 billion in 2020 and most cases, there is little clarity on China and South Korea were Among the Big Three U.S. legacy partners) hobbled along for most of The bottom-line result from DAC’s climb back to $598 billion next year. when and how restrictions in other among the first to establish proto - carriers, American Airlines is add- the decade at capacity levels below model indicates a full recovery to “Financially, 2020 will go down as markets will be lifted, SIA CEO Goh cols for approved essential business ing back flights most aggressively those of late 2001, Southwest and 2019-level traffic figures in 2024 at the worst year in the history of avi- Choon Phong says. This adds a ma- travelers, starting May 1. China and in July, with plans to operate 55% of smaller majors, including Alaska and the earliest, and the networks will ation,” says IATA Director General jor challenge to network recovery Singapore began a similar program in its domestic schedule, boosted by a Hawaiian Airlines, plus the ultra-low- not look the same. A conservative and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. “On planning. early June. These three countries are heavier focus on domestic flying. Del- cost segment, grew relative to 2001. approach to growth by the big net- average, every day of this year will add SIA and Cathay also have a high- also holding talks with other Asia-Pa- ta Air Lines and United Airlines— Based on announced aircraft re - work carriers, combined with the $230 million to industry losses.” er proportion of international transit cific countries with a view to forming with greater exposure to long-haul tirements, the fleets of American, added burden created by new pro - He estimates that airlines will carry traffic via their hubs than most other essential travel agreements. markets across the Atlantic and Pa- Delta and United combined are tocols, could be enough to render 2.2 billion passengers this year, a full- airlines. They rely on connecting traf- For many Asian airlines, access to cific—are taking a more conservative “likely” to be at least 17% smaller well some short-haul flying redundant, year mark last seen in 2006, and lose fic flows, such as those between West- China is vital to their networks, and stance, adding back 37% and 30% of into 2022, says DAC Chief Industry Swelbar says. The most vulnerable $37 on every passenger flown. Next ern Europe and Australasia. they want to begin reopening routes to domestic routes, respectively. Strategist William Swelbar. Delta and markets are small and nonhub air- year’s passenger count is projected to Singapore and Hong Kong both Chinese cities. However, the Chinese “American Airlines went into the United have older fleets, while Amer- craft within 180 mi. of a large or me- approach 3.4 billion, or just more than decided to allow transit passengers government has heavily restricted in- crisis in worse shape than Delta or ican, with a younger fleet, has nearly dium hub. There were more than 160 2014’s annual total. c

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Emirates Sees Major Benefits in domestic feed on one end and Emir- ates’ reach into Asia on the other— Tying Up With a Big U.S. Airline could offer similar benefits. But no such deals are in the works. In 2018, the U.S. signed separate > THE AIRLINE HAS NO PLANS FOR GLOBAL ALLIANCE MEMBERSHIP deals with the Qatar and United Arab FEEDING U.S. HUBS IS SEEN AS A MAJOR DRIVER OF GROWTH Emirates governments whereby the > Middle Eastern carriers voluntarily share more complete financial infor- Sean Broderick Washington and Jens Flottau Frankfurt mation. American and Qatar Airways followed up with the codeshare deal, he relationship between U.S. huge amounts of business, because we settling a dispute during which Qatar airlines and Gulf carriers has are the single largest producer . . . com- CEO Akbar Al Baker had threatened to Tbeen hostile for years. Emir- ing out of the East [beyond Europe] leave Oneworld unless the dispute was ates’ launch of a fifth-freedom Airbus into the United States,” Clark says. resolved to his satisfaction. A380 service from Milan to New York “There’s a huge opportunity there that With Qatar now tied to American, in October 2013 led American Airlines, Emirates could bring to the United SkyTeam member Delta and Star Al- Delta Air Lines and United Airlines to States without going into an alliance. It liance co-founder United remain the launch a massive PR campaign about would be a tap that you turned on, sat most attractive U.S.-based global- alleged unfair government subsidies back and watched us fill large numbers carrier partners for Emirates. Clark for Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways and of their airplanes.” says Emirates holds no grudges over the subsidy row but suggests the fallout is at least part of the reason Emirates hopes a tie-up with a big U.S. airline could bolster its Dubai hub. Delta and United have not made any commercial overtures. “That’s where we are,” he says. But that is probably only part of it. The Star Alliance has relatively strict rules for its members’ relation- ships outside of the alliance. The idea is for them not to enter into agree - ments that compete too much with members and weaken their market positions. There are exceptions. Sin- gapore Airlines has a codesharing agreement with Air France-KLM, which is part of SkyTeam. Numerous DUBAI AIRPORTS smaller arrangements are focused on Emirates and request the U.S. govern- Emirates has codeshare agreements feeder services in certain geographies. ment to intervene. and partnerships with several carriers, Emirates, as the largest international The once-massive campaign had be- including Alaska Airlines and JetBlue airline by available seat kilometers come all but unnoticeable before the Airways in the U.S. Clark points to its pre-COVID-19, is a wholly different industry collapsed amid the COVID-19 more extensive link with Oneworld beast. A tie-up with United would be pandemic. In a highly unusual turn, member Qantas as an ideal example seen as negatively influencing transit American and Qatar set aside their of close cooperation that benefits both flows through European hubs, such as publicly traded differences and an- sides and avoids the constraints of a Lufthansa’s in Frankfurt and , nounced a new codeshare deal at the formal airline alliance. between North America and Asia. end of February, an agreement that Emirates and Qantas struck their The same would apply for Delta had been suspended since 2017 in spite original deal in 2013 to codeshare and its partners Air France-KLM and of the two carriers’ Oneworld alliance and leverage services in Dubai, Perth Virgin Atlantic. Delta owns stakes in membership. Delta and Qatar have and Singapore for both carriers’ the two European groups and has no been among the largest shareholders customers. The deal was renewed interest in weakening their business. of LATAM Airlines, now in bankrupt- for another five years in 2018. “The The one scenario that seems to cy. While Etihad is shrinking to bou- Qantas arrangement is a really good elude Emirates—in spite of the compli- tique-airline status, the big question one,” Clark says. “It’s not an alliance, cations of trying to convince a member has been whether Emirates might con- because it was [developed] bilateral- of a global alliance to do business with sider a deal with another U.S. carrier, ly from a commercial and marketing it—is to join one itself. “People like us presumably United or Delta. point of view.” have always charted our own destiny Tim Clark, president of Emirates Clark suggests that a similar ar- and not allowed ourselves to be ham- Airline, has a clear answer: Yes. “It rangement with a large U.S. carrier—to strung by people who don’t think as makes far more sense to have Emir- leverage major hubs such as Emirates’ we do,” Clark says. “Our approach has ates deal with one of the Big Three Dubai base or a U.S. carrier’s large Eu- always been, ‘If you can’t make your [than join a global alliance] and deliver ropean operation, combined with U.S. own way, then don’t bother.’” c

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Emirates Sees Major Benefits in domestic feed on one end and Emir- Alitalia Has Its Work Cut Out ket,” consultant Andrea Giuricin, CEO ates’ reach into Asia on the other— of TRA Consulting, wrote in a May 27 Tying Up With a Big U.S. Airline could offer similar benefits. But no for Post-COVID-19 Relaunch blog post published on the Istituto such deals are in the works. Bruno Leoni website. In 2018, the U.S. signed separate > NATIONALIZED ALITALIA AFTER THE COVID-19 CRISIS HIT But with a strong position on only > THE AIRLINE HAS NO PLANS FOR GLOBAL ALLIANCE MEMBERSHIP deals with the Qatar and United Arab a few transatlantic routes, it is un- THE AIRLINE WILL RELAUNCH WITH €3 BILLION ($3.4 BILLION) FEEDING U.S. HUBS IS SEEN AS A MAJOR DRIVER OF GROWTH Emirates governments whereby the > likely that getting the Italian carrier > Middle Eastern carriers voluntarily IN INITIAL CAPITAL back on board will be a priority for share more complete financial infor- the other JV partners, Edmond says. Sean Broderick Washington and Jens Flottau Frankfurt mation. American and Qatar Airways Helen Massy-Beresford Paris “We’ve seen, over the last few years, followed up with the codeshare deal, being part of an immunized JV is im- he relationship between U.S. huge amounts of business, because we settling a dispute during which Qatar hen Alitalia filed for bank- A330-200, A319, A320 and A321 and portant for profitability, but Alitalia is airlines and Gulf carriers has are the single largest producer . . . com- CEO Akbar Al Baker had threatened to ruptcy in May 2017, unable Embraer E175 and E190 aircraft. not coming to this from a position of Tbeen hostile for years. Emir- ing out of the East [beyond Europe] leave Oneworld unless the dispute was Wto stand up to intensifying “The difficulty is Alitalia isn’t start- strength,” Edmond says. ates’ launch of a fifth-freedom Airbus into the United States,” Clark says. resolved to his satisfaction. competition from low-cost carriers in ing with a clean sheet of paper,” says “Long-haul is one of the big assets A380 service from Milan to New York “There’s a huge opportunity there that With Qatar now tied to American, its home market after years of ineffi- Patrick Edmond, head of the aviation in which to invest,” Patuanelli said in in October 2013 led American Airlines, Emirates could bring to the United SkyTeam member Delta and Star Al- ciency, it came as no great surprise to consultancy Altair Advisory. “It’s re- May, also referring to “possible new Delta Air Lines and United Airlines to States without going into an alliance. It liance co-founder United remain the observers of the airline industry. launching as a high-cost carrier. transatlantic alliances.” launch a massive PR campaign about would be a tap that you turned on, sat most attractive U.S.-based global- What nobody would have predict- “It’s hard to see how you build any Now that the partnership has ex- alleged unfair government subsidies back and watched us fill large numbers carrier partners for Emirates. Clark ed was that three years later Alitalia kind of profitable long-haul operation pired, Alitalia plans to make use of for Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways and of their airplanes.” says Emirates holds no grudges over would still be clinging to life. Now out of Rome when Milan is Italy’s eco- codeshares with Delta to drive traffic. the subsidy row but suggests the nationalized, the airline is looking to nomic center. This is something that Alitalia’s alliance membership is also fallout is at least part of the reason make a fresh start after a global pan- has hamstrung Alitalia for decades more important for the carrier than Emirates hopes a tie-up with a big U.S. airline could bolster its Dubai hub. Delta and United have not made any demic that has devastated the com- with attempts to operate a two-hub for SkyTeam itself. “The challenge for commercial overtures. “That’s where mercial air transport industry and led arrangement.” Alitalia is that it hasn’t been able to we are,” he says. to several airline casualties. But that is probably only part of After a fruitless, nearly three-year it. The Star Alliance has relatively search for a buyer, Alitalia was hit hard Alitalia is resuming flights after widespread groundings. strict rules for its members’ relation- by the COVID-19 crisis as flights ground ships outside of the alliance. The idea to a halt. Italy then decided to nation- is for them not to enter into agree - alize the carrier as part of a broader ments that compete too much with economic support package aimed at members and weaken their market helping the country recover from the positions. There are exceptions. Sin- devastating impact of the coronavirus. gapore Airlines has a codesharing Italy’s government has insisted that agreement with Air France-KLM, it does not just want to rescue the air- which is part of SkyTeam. Numerous line, which began life in 1947, but to DUBAI AIRPORTS smaller arrangements are focused on relaunch it as an Italian success story Emirates and request the U.S. govern- Emirates has codeshare agreements feeder services in certain geographies. that will also play a key role in boost- ment to intervene. and partnerships with several carriers, Emirates, as the largest international ing the country’s tourism sector. The once-massive campaign had be- including Alaska Airlines and JetBlue airline by available seat kilometers With €3 billion ($3.3 billion) in fund- come all but unnoticeable before the Airways in the U.S. Clark points to its pre-COVID-19, is a wholly different ing from the Italian state behind it, the industry collapsed amid the COVID-19 more extensive link with Oneworld beast. A tie-up with United would be pressure is now on for the “new Alita- member Qantas as an ideal example seen as negatively influencing transit pandemic. In a highly unusual turn, lia” to prove that is possible. The plan JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET American and Qatar set aside their of close cooperation that benefits both flows through European hubs, such as will also come under scrutiny from the publicly traded differences and an- sides and avoids the constraints of a Lufthansa’s in Frankfurt and Munich, European Commission, which could Competition will be fierce as airlines maintain a premium positioning over nounced a new codeshare deal at the formal airline alliance. between North America and Asia. lead to more delays in the relaunch. gradually emerge from their wide - the years,” Edmond says. “Once upon end of February, an agreement that Emirates and Qantas struck their The same would apply for Delta For Alitalia to succeed, it will need spread groundings, Edmond says. a time, decades ago, Alitalia was seen had been suspended since 2017 in spite original deal in 2013 to codeshare and its partners Air France-KLM and to follow the lead of its European peers Long-haul is one of the areas as a stylish and fancy offering. But it of the two carriers’ Oneworld alliance and leverage services in Dubai, Perth Virgin Atlantic. Delta owns stakes in and downsize its operations to fit the Patuanelli has singled out as a longer- will be a challenge to get back to that.” membership. Delta and Qatar have and Singapore for both carriers’ the two European groups and has no new lower-demand environment. The term focus for the new Alitalia. North The relaunch of the new Alitalia is been among the largest shareholders customers. The deal was renewed interest in weakening their business. International Air Transport Associa- American destinations are an import- just the latest twist in a long-running of LATAM Airlines, now in bankrupt- for another five years in 2018. “The The one scenario that seems to tion (IATA) does not expect air traffic ant area of focus, and the airline will saga. When the coronavirus crisis hit, cy. While Etihad is shrinking to bou- Qantas arrangement is a really good elude Emirates—in spite of the compli- to return to 2019 levels until 2023. have to look for a way to make up for Italy’s government saw no other op- tique-airline status, the big question one,” Clark says. “It’s not an alliance, cations of trying to convince a member “The government’s intention is not the loss of a transatlantic joint venture tion but to nationalize the airline in a has been whether Emirates might con- because it was [developed] bilateral- of a global alliance to do business with yet another rescue of the airline but (JV) with Delta Air Lines, Air France bid to save it. The move sent a strong sider a deal with another U.S. carrier, ly from a commercial and marketing it—is to join one itself. “People like us rather the relaunch of the flag carri- and KLM, which ended Dec. 31, 2019. signal: For Italy, allowing Alitalia to go presumably United or Delta. point of view.” have always charted our own destiny er,” Economic Development Minister The existing antitrust immunity (ATI) out of business was not an option. Tim Clark, president of Emirates Clark suggests that a similar ar- and not allowed ourselves to be ham- Stefano Patuanelli said last month. grant between the airlines expired on “I think Alitalia may be around for a Airline, has a clear answer: Yes. “It rangement with a large U.S. carrier—to strung by people who don’t think as The carrier is planning to ap - May 20, 2020. while, but I don’t think that’s driven by makes far more sense to have Emir- leverage major hubs such as Emirates’ we do,” Clark says. “Our approach has proach that relaunch with just over That exit leaves Alitalia “increas- anything in the air transport space,” ates deal with one of the Big Three Dubai base or a U.S. carrier’s large Eu- always been, ‘If you can’t make your two-thirds of its precrisis fleet of ingly isolated in an increasingly tough Edmond says. “I think that’s just driv- [than join a global alliance] and deliver ropean operation, combined with U.S. own way, then don’t bother.’” c Boeing 777-300ER, 777-200ER, Airbus and competitive air transport mar- en by the political landscape.” c

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 19 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

ple, a city break. That risk also applies Europe’s LCCs Face Obstacles to visitors to the UK.” The UK government will be review- to Summer Recovery ing the quarantine measure at the end of June, so it could be removed. But > AIRLINES START LEGAL ACTION OVER UK QUARANTINE even so, airlines still face barriers to re- covery, including the pricing dilemma. > LCC s FACE PRICING PRESSURE AS SUMMER SEASON With economic turmoil throughout GETS UNDERWAY the region affecting consumer spend- ing power, LCCs will be the obvious Helen Massy-Beresford Paris choice for cost-conscious consumers who wish to get away this summer. s the summer vacation season Airways, EasyJet and have And after months of lockdown, begins, Europe’s travel land- together taken the first step toward Europeans do want to get away—re- Ascape is looking very different legal proceedings, sending a preac- cent data released by price compar- from previous years: Even if the peak tion protocol letter to the government ison site TravelSupermarket.com of the COVID-19 pandemic appears June 5 and describing the measures as showed British consumers made 40% to have passed for many countries, “disproportionate and unfair on Brit- more searches for overseas vacation Europe’s low-cost carriers (LCC) face ish citizens as well as international packages for July, August and Sep- daunting obstacles to recovery. visitors arriving in the UK.” tember in the second part of May, According to Eurocontrol statistics, The 14-day quarantine came into compared with the first two weeks of daily flights in Europe are showing the force June 8, with most residents the month. first significant signs of recovery, with returning to the UK and visitors re- LCCs may even benefit from de - four days of more than 6,000 flights at quired to provide journey and contact mand from consumers who would

the start of June. That is a drop in the JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET ocean compared with last year’s levels. EasyJet is one of three airlines challenging But for airlines, it represents a major the UK government’s quarantine policy. improvement on the virtually empty skies of April and May, when most countries were in strict lockdown. Ryanair plans around 1,000 daily flights from July 1, while EasyJet has said it will resume flights beginning June 15, with about 50% of its 1,022 routes operating in July, although flights will operate at only around 30% of normal July-September capacity. Some LCCs are even poised to take advantage of the post-COVID-19 en- vironment to further their growth details and self-isolate their first 14 normally choose to travel long-haul plans: Budapest, Hungary-based LCC days in the UK, or face a fine of £1,000 but prefer to stay closer to home amid Wizz Air, which has been expanding ($1,300). the ongoing post-pandemic uncertain- rapidly for some time, is hoping to Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has ty. And for newly hesitant travelers, a take advantage of its strength to seize been vocal in his criticism of the mea- short point-to-point service is likely opportunities opened up by the corona- sure, saying on ITV June 3: “What’s sad to be more appealing than a long-haul virus crisis, starting with new bases in about it is that the British government flight wearing a mask. Larnaca, Cyprus, and at Malpensa Air- is introducing this quarantine at the But as LCCs attempt to lure hesi- port in Milan. very time when every other European tant consumers with low prices—such “Many carriers don’t have any government is removing travel restric- as EasyJet’s one-way flights from Lon- money to invest in anything, but we tions, is encouraging visitors to visit don Gatwick Airport to Malaga, , are benefiting from this situation be- again and is trying to restart tourism.” from £22.99—they are increasing their cause we have the financial strength Ryanair now expects to carry 75-80 financial pressure at a time when they to expand,” CEO Jozsef Varadi said in million passengers this year, down from cannot rely on usual high load factors a June 5 interview. 150 million last year. to make the numbers add up. As LCCs take to the skies once again, “As LCCs gradually reintroduce “LCCs are very dependent on high however, they face significant hurdles. flights and try to gauge which routes load factors, and while I think some For example, LCCs that rely heavi- will have the necessary demand to level of travel will return, we won’t see ly on destinations to and from the UK justify those flights, quarantine may the load factors we saw before,” says face an immediate obstacle to their re- act as a demand suppressant,” says Wyatt. Although he thinks LCCs will covery from the UK government’s de- Nicholas Wyatt, a travel and tourism fare better than legacy counterparts, cision to impose a 14-day quarantine on analyst for GlobalData. “For Ryanair “I think there will be a big profitability most international arrivals. and EasyJet, a lot of bookings are for hit,” he adds. c To no one’s surprise, airlines have short trips—a 14-day quarantine does criticized the measure, and British cast doubt on the viability of, for exam- —With Kurt Hofmann in

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION ple, a city break. That risk also applies Europe’s LCCs Face Obstacles to visitors to the UK.” All SpaceJet Flying Suspended, the commercial-aircraft subsidiary The UK government will be review- is working toward. to Summer Recovery ing the quarantine measure at the end Production Winding Down to Zero Mitsubishi Aircraft did not directly of June, so it could be removed. But answer a question as to whether and > SPACEJET MANUFACTURING PLANS WILL FOLLOW CERTIFICATION > AIRLINES START LEGAL ACTION OVER UK QUARANTINE even so, airlines still face barriers to re- when flight testing at Moses Lake covery, including the pricing dilemma. MHI SIGNALS COMMITMENT BY COMPLETING CRJ PROGRAM would resume. Again, the likely answer LCC s FACE PRICING PRESSURE AS SUMMER SEASON > > With economic turmoil throughout ACQUISITION GETS UNDERWAY the region affecting consumer spend- The  rst SpaceJet prototype, ing power, LCCs will be the obvious pictured here soon after arrival at Helen Massy-Beresford Paris choice for cost-conscious consumers Moses Lake , is no longer  ying. who wish to get away this summer. s the summer vacation season Airways, EasyJet and Ryanair have And after months of lockdown, is that the company does not know. For begins, Europe’s travel land- together taken the first step toward Europeans do want to get away—re- the moment, it is just keeping the four Ascape is looking very different legal proceedings, sending a preac- cent data released by price compar- aircraft there, leaving options open from previous years: Even if the peak tion protocol letter to the government ison site TravelSupermarket.com and avoiding the expense of returning of the COVID-19 pandemic appears June 5 and describing the measures as showed British consumers made 40% them to Japan. ITSISI AIRRAT to have passed for many countries, “disproportionate and unfair on Brit- more searches for overseas vacation Bradley Perrett Beijing In mid-March, the seventh and Europe’s low-cost carriers (LCC) face ish citizens as well as international packages for July, August and Sep- eighth SpaceJets—of the same design daunting obstacles to recovery. visitors arriving in the UK.” tember in the second part of May, udging the outlook for the not know until cost targets have been standard as the sixth—were in the fi - According to Eurocontrol statistics, The 14-day quarantine came into compared with the first two weeks of Mitsubishi Aircraft SpaceJet achieved. And it will not know when nal stages of production. The seventh daily flights in Europe are showing the force June 8, with most residents the month. Jprogram is not easy, not least to resume manufacturing until the re- has now been completed, and work is first significant signs of recovery, with returning to the UK and visitors re- LCCs may even benefit from de - because the company itself is unsure gional jet has been declared airworthy. continuing on the eighth, the compa- four days of more than 6,000 flights at quired to provide journey and contact mand from consumers who would of what it will do. Meeting cost-cut- MHI, which is also the SpaceJet pro- ny says. Production work on other the start of June. That is a drop in the JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET ting objectives has taken priority even gram’s airframe-manufacturing con- SpaceJets has been halted—another ocean compared with last year’s levels. EasyJet is one of three airlines challenging over setting a schedule for achieving tractor, built six prototypes by March, cost-control measure. No manufac- But for airlines, it represents a major airworthiness certification. Yet the fi ve of which conformed to an original turing activity in the program will the UK government’s quarantine policy. improvement on the virtually empty commitment to program completion design that program managers had take place at all once the eighth air- skies of April and May, when most is obvious. realized in 2016 was not certifiable. craft is ready. countries were in strict lockdown. The regional jet program has halt- Four of those fi ve aircraft are at Moses “We will revisit the decision on Ryanair plans around 1,000 daily ed all fl ight testing worldwide and is Lake, where fl ight testing stopped in production after we achieve TC and flights from July 1, while EasyJet has winding down production to zero. April due to the coronavirus pandemic. after a thorough evaluation of the said it will resume flights beginning Staffing at the home of the develop- Of the two other prototypes, both at new state of the aviation industry,” June 15, with about 50% of its 1,022 ment e ort in Nagoya, Japan, will be Nagoya, one is the crucial sixth unit, the company says. routes operating in July, although reduced, Mitsubishi Aircraft says, which follows the certifi able, updated Japanese media variously reported flights will operate at only around 30% briefl y outlining its plans to Aviation design and is the main aircraft for last month that SpaceJet production of normal July-September capacity. Week. This follows earlier news that the remainder of fl ight testing. When was merely being reduced or that it Some LCCs are even poised to take the company would close operations Mitsubishi Aircraft said on May 25 had stopped only because of delays in advantage of the post-COVID-19 en- outside Japan, except the main fl ight- that it was reducing the Moses Lake receiving parts. vironment to further their growth details and self-isolate their first 14 normally choose to travel long-haul test base, at Moses Lake, Washington, operation to preservation of the air- Asked about the size of the develop- plans: Budapest, Hungary-based LCC days in the UK, or face a fine of £1,000 but prefer to stay closer to home amid where operations have been reduced craft there, it said nothing about fl ight ment operation at Nagoya, the compa- Wizz Air, which has been expanding ($1,300). the ongoing post-pandemic uncertain- to preserving the prototypes there. testing at Nagoya. ny says: “There will be impact to our rapidly for some time, is hoping to Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has ty. And for newly hesitant travelers, a On June 1, the industrial group com- But Nagoya fl ight testing had also teams in Nagoya, but plans are still in take advantage of its strength to seize been vocal in his criticism of the mea- short point-to-point service is likely pleted its purchase of the Bombardier been halted as a measure to control the fi nal stages of evaluation.” opportunities opened up by the corona- sure, saying on ITV June 3: “What’s sad to be more appealing than a long-haul CRJ program, the likely foundation of costs, the company said on June 2 in On May 11, MHI said it had dropped virus crisis, starting with new bases in about it is that the British government flight wearing a mask. future SpaceJet maintenance and mar- written answers to Aviation Week development of the smaller of the two Larnaca, Cyprus, and at Malpensa Air- is introducing this quarantine at the But as LCCs attempt to lure hesi- keting. The CRJ business , now called questions. The sixth prototype, called SpaceJet versions, the M100, which was port in Milan. very time when every other European tant consumers with low prices—such MHI RJ Aviation Group, does not in- FTV10, would stay there, it added. tailored for the U.S. market. The fi rst “Many carriers don’t have any government is removing travel restric- as EasyJet’s one-way flights from Lon- clude CRJ manufacturing facilities, “There is a possibility that flight version to be certifi ed will be the M90, money to invest in anything, but we tions, is encouraging visitors to visit don Gatwick Airport to Malaga, Spain, which will wind up production of that testing will begin again in Japan, but which is designed to seat 88 passengers are benefiting from this situation be- again and is trying to restart tourism.” from £22.99—they are increasing their regional jet this year . Bombardier ex- [there are] no specific plans yet for in an all-economy arrangement. cause we have the financial strength Ryanair now expects to carry 75-80 financial pressure at a time when they pected to receive a net profi t of C$550 resumption of flight-test activities,” The SpaceJet program was launched to expand,” CEO Jozsef Varadi said in million passengers this year, down from cannot rely on usual high load factors million ($410 million) from the sale. the company stated. “[The] focus is in 2008, when the type was called the a June 5 interview. 150 million last year. to make the numbers add up. MHI would not have chosen to spend still on cost control and meeting the Mitsubishi Regional Jet, or MRJ. As LCCs take to the skies once again, “As LCCs gradually reintroduce “LCCs are very dependent on high that money —as it had on May 7, when budget directives. Once those have SpaceJet losses, which drove MHI into however, they face significant hurdles. flights and try to gauge which routes load factors, and while I think some it fi nally agreed to the deal —if it no lon- been reached, the company will begin the red in fi scal 2019, are expected to For example, LCCs that rely heavi- will have the necessary demand to level of travel will return, we won’t see ger thought the SpaceJet had a future. rebuilding the plan to reach TC in this o set profi ts fully from other activities ly on destinations to and from the UK justify those flights, quarantine may the load factors we saw before,” says The most recent official outlook new environment.” across the sprawling industrial group face an immediate obstacle to their re- act as a demand suppressant,” says Wyatt. Although he thinks LCCs will for fi rst delivery of the SpaceJet has Announcing its fi nancial results for in fi scal 2020. c covery from the UK government’s de- Nicholas Wyatt, a travel and tourism fare better than legacy counterparts, been no earlier than April 2021. With the year through March 31, MHI said cision to impose a 14-day quarantine on analyst for GlobalData. “For Ryanair “I think there will be a big profitability all the prototypes grounded, the ques- on May 11 it would set an appropriate Aviation Week editors discuss most international arrivals. and EasyJet, a lot of bookings are for hit,” he adds. c tion arises of when Mitsubishi Aircraft budget for the program, consider- whether the regional jet program will sur- To no one’s surprise, airlines have short trips—a 14-day quarantine does expects to get a type certifi cate (TC). ing the group’s fi nancial headwinds. vive —and whether its troubles will benefi t criticized the measure, and British cast doubt on the viability of, for exam- —With Kurt Hofmann in Vienna The company’s answer is that it will This “appropriate budget” is what Embraer.

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 2 SPACE NASA’ S NEW ERA

> SPACEX PREPS FOR OPERATIONAL FLIGHTS Toward that goal, NASA found kin- dred spirits in two distinct industries: > NASA IS EXTENDING PARTNERSHIPS BEYOND LEO the fast-paced tech world enshrined by SpaceX and the steadfast aero - space domain of Boeing. Bolstered by Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral about $8 billion of taxpayer money, the companies took the lead in de - AS THE U.S. DESCENDED INTO ONE OF ITS signing, developing, testing and ulti- mately flying low-Earth-orbit (LEO) darkest chapters in recent history, with transportation systems for astronauts COMMERCIAL more than 100,000 Americans dead from and other travelers. the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment The SpaceX solution is attached to CREW the International Space Station (ISS) COUNTDOWN levels not seen since the Great Depression now, having reached the milestone of the 1930s and widespread protests over of a crewed flight test well ahead of police brutality and racism, NASA kicked Boeing. SpaceX’s May 30 launch of LOGO PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK NASA astronauts Douglas Hurley off a space mission that may become as and Robert Behnken on a Falcon 9 iconic as the Apollo Moon landing more than 50 years ago. rocket marked the first orbital launch of humans by a private company and The success of the new endeav - endurance. By partnering with private the first launch of astronauts aboard a or will be measured not only by its companies, NASA seeks to build hu- U.S. spaceship since the space shuttle technological achievement—namely man exploration and space transpor- program ended in 2011. restoring U.S. capability to launch tation programs that, unlike Apollo, “It’s a little hard to process at this astronauts into orbit—but also by its will never end. point,” SpaceX founder, CEO and

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

and life becoming multiplanetary for three liquid-fueled main engines were the first time time in the 4.5 billion fueled before astronauts arrived at NASA’ S year history of Earth,” Musk adds. the launchpad. If the ongoing Demonstration “Hearing the venting and the valve Mission-2 (Demo-2) is successful, sounds and the little vibrations associ- SpaceX could be ready to fly its first ated with the fueling operation was a long-duration crew rotation mission new experience for us,” Behnken told on Aug. 30. reporters on June 1. NEW ERA “We’re at the dawn of a new age, NASA’s safety oversight board also the beginning of a space revolution,” delved into SpaceX’s use of an au- says NASA Deputy Administrator Jim tonomous flight termination system Morhard. “This is really something on the Falcon 9, among other issues. much bigger than all of us. Our hope Traditionally, the responsibility for and prayer is to inspire the next gen- triggering destruction of a wayward eration, give hope for many people who booster rests in the hands of a range need it right now.” safety officer on the ground. It is a testament to the preparation “SpaceX and Boeing are very dif- of the joint NASA-SpaceX team that in ferent in terms of how they approach the days leading up to the Falcon 9’s systems engineering and integration,” 3:22 p.m. EDT liftoff on May 30, the pri- ASAP member George Nield tells Avi- mary concern was the weather. Flori- ation Week. “The traditional approach da’s fickle summertime storm cycle this is [to] do lots and lots of analysis until year started early, dashing plans for an you’re very confident that everything initial launch attempt on May 27. With is going to work as you laid it out.” the potential for rocket-triggered light- SpaceX has a more agile process, Former NASA astronaut Karen ning in the skies around Cape Canaver- which is to build something, test it and Nyberg, spouse of Demo-2 Crew Dragon al, the Demo-2 countdown was halted if it does not work as expected, change with 16 min. 53 sec. left on the clock. it, says Nield. “It can be very frustrat- Commander Douglas Hurley, and their “It is good for the agency to have a ing and scary for people used to the son watched the liftoff of Hurley and wet dress rehearsal behind us,” NASA other approach because a typical astronaut Robert Behnken on May 30. Administrator Jim Bridenstine said engineer will want to lock down the on May 29. design right at the beginning and then The scrub provided the first demon- not change anything going forward.” stration—albeit an unplanned one—of The traditional approach makes what was once a highly controversial components and systems easier to plan to fuel the booster with 1.2 mil- track since approved designs stay the KAREN NYBERG lion lb. of superchilled rocket-grade same. But Nield notes it also “locks kerosene and liquid oxygen after the you into whatever level of safety—or > SPACEX PREPS FOR OPERATIONAL FLIGHTS Toward that goal, NASA found kin- Chief Engineer Elon Musk said after astronauts were strapped inside the unsafety—that that system has.” dred spirits in two distinct industries: the launch. “It’s difficult to come up Crew Dragon capsule perched on the The SpaceX way presented a chal- > NASA IS EXTENDING PARTNERSHIPS BEYOND LEO the fast-paced tech world enshrined with cohesive sentences that make rocket’s nose. lenge for NASA as it tried to assess by SpaceX and the steadfast aero - any sense. . . . It’s just ‘wow’” (AW&ST The procedure, known as “load the robustness of the company’s sys- space domain of Boeing. Bolstered by June 1-14, p. 56). and go,” was once a showstopper for tems engineering and integration. Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral about $8 billion of taxpayer money, “This is hopefully the first step on a NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory “They came up with something that’s the companies took the lead in de - journey toward a civilization on Mars Panel (ASAP). The space shuttles’ really impressive, frankly—a software AS THE U.S. DESCENDED INTO ONE OF ITS signing, developing, testing and ulti- program they call a ‘bill of design’ sys- mately flying low-Earth-orbit (LEO) tem, which is used for all aspects of the darkest chapters in recent history, with transportation systems for astronauts manufacture, the workflow process and COMMERCIAL more than 100,000 Americans dead from and other travelers. the verification review,” says Nield, the the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment The SpaceX solution is attached to former head of the FAA’s Office of Com- CREW the International Space Station (ISS) JOEL KOWSKY/NASA mercial Space Transportation, which COUNTDOWN levels not seen since the Great Depression now, having reached the milestone will be licensing the space taxis after of the 1930s and widespread protests over of a crewed flight test well ahead of they have been certified by NASA. police brutality and racism, NASA kicked Boeing. SpaceX’s May 30 launch of “Everything is online, so somebody in a certain shift can see what happened LOGO PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK off a space mission that may become as NASA astronauts Douglas Hurley Kathy Lueders, and Robert Behnken on a Falcon 9 NASA’s Commercial in the last shift,” says Nield. “It’s all tied iconic as the Apollo Moon landing more than 50 years ago. rocket marked the first orbital launch Crew Program together through the component draw- ings, notes and production procedures. of humans by a private company and manager, watched the The success of the new endeav - endurance. By partnering with private the first launch of astronauts aboard a And it’s all automated so when you get or will be measured not only by its companies, NASA seeks to build hu- U.S. spaceship since the space shuttle crewed flight test reach to the end, you can see when this test technological achievement—namely man exploration and space transpor- program ended in 2011. the ISS May 31. was done and what the results were, restoring U.S. capability to launch tation programs that, unlike Apollo, “It’s a little hard to process at this how changing a particular valve has an astronauts into orbit—but also by its will never end. point,” SpaceX founder, CEO and impact on this other system.”

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In addition, the system automatically catches deviations such as hu- man error in data entry. “Boy, when some of the longtime NASA managers hear about these things, they’re just drooling because they had nothing like that in the era of the shuttle,” says Nield. “Everything was manual and on paper. It was very di cult to understand what the impacts of all the various systems were and how to quickly make a change that would roll downhill through all the other systems that were involved. “It took a while to deploy [the SpaceX system], understand it and implement it completely, but now that it’s being used, it is certainly an impressive system,” he adds. “They have given NASA almost complete access to that system so they don’t even have to be standing here looking over every component being installed or watching every test, because they can go in and check what the status is and understand what the impacts of a particular test are by just questioning that software system.” The harmonic convergence of NASA and SpaceX will be tested throughout the ongoing Demo-2 mission, laying the foundation for cooperation on the Trump administration’s signature space initiative, K SLE/NASA Artemis, and its goal to land two U.S. astronauts—specifi cally a man Ro b e r t B e h n ke n and a woman—on the south pole of the Moon in 2024. About the only surprise from the Demo-2 mission so far was the crew’s Age: 49 Education: Washington University; unexpectedly sporty ride to orbit on the Falcon 9’s upper stage, powered California Institute of Technology by a single Merlin 1D vacuum engine. “It was a smoother fi rst stage, a little rougher second stage than we saw Robert Behnken joined the Astronaut Corps in on the shuttle,” says Behnken, the Demo-2 joint operations commander. 2000 after serving as a U.S. Air Force test en- “The shuttle had solid rocket boosters to start with, and those burned gineer on the Lockheed Martin F-22 and other very rough for the fi rst 2.5 min.,” adds Hurley, Crew Dragon commander. programs. He  ew two space shuttle missions, “The fi rst stage with Falcon 9, with the nine [liquid-fueled] Merlin engines STS-123 in March 2008 and STS-130 in February and roughly the same amount of time, was a much smoother ride. 2010, logging more than 708 hr. in orbit and more “Where the di— erences started . . . was at staging,” he continues. “The than 37 hr. spacewalking during six outings. Behnken, an Air Force colonel with a doctorate ISS Commander Christopher in mechanical engineering, served as chief of the Cassidy, right, and Russian Astronaut O‰ ce from July 2012 to July 2015 and cosmonauts , then became one of four astronauts embedded left, and Ivan Vagner, second with both of NASA’s Commercial Crew provid- from left, greeted Demo-2 ers, SpaceX and Boeing, working on developing astronaut Behnken. space taxis. Behnken is now the joint operations com- mander for the ’ rst crewed  ight of the SpaceX Crew Dragon, which launched on May 30, 2020. “The thing that’s really been the most exciting for me working with the SpaceX team is their agility to react to something that we identify as an area that could be improved, or some area that is a problem—the way that they’re able to quickly resolve it,” he said during a prelaunch interview. He is married to NASA astronaut Megan McArthur and father of their six-year-old son, who received a call from his dad shortly after the Dragon reached the ISS. “I just wanted to under- stand what his experience [of the launch] was and share that a little bit with him while it was still fresh in his mind,” Behnken said. He and Crew Dragon Commander Douglas Hurley could spend up to four months at the ISS, helping out the short-sta› ed crew.

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With the launch of In addition, the system automatically catches deviations such as hu- astronauts Douglas Hurley man error in data entry. and Robert Behnken aboard “Boy, when some of the longtime NASA managers hear about these a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule things, they’re just drooling because they had nothing like that in the era of the shuttle,” says Nield. “Everything was manual and on paper. It was on May 30, the U.S. nine-year very di cult to understand what the impacts of all the various systems hiatus in human orbital were and how to quickly make a change that would roll downhill through flight came to an end. all the other systems that were involved. “It took a while to deploy [the SpaceX system], understand it and implement it completely, but now that it’s being used, it is certainly an impressive system,” he adds. “They have given NASA almost complete access to that system so they don’t even have to be standing here looking over every component being installed or watching every test, because they can go in and check what the status is and understand what the KIM SHIFLETT/NASA impacts of a particular test are by just questioning that software system.” The harmonic convergence of NASA and SpaceX will be tested throughout the ongoing Demo-2 mission, laying the foundation for cooperation on the Trump administration’s signature space initiative, K SLE/NASA Artemis, and its goal to land two U.S. astronauts—specifi cally a man Ro b e r t B e h n ke n and a woman—on the south pole of the Moon in 2024. Douglas Hurley About the only surprise from the Demo-2 mission so far was the crew’s Age: 49 Education: Washington University; unexpectedly sporty ride to orbit on the Falcon 9’s upper stage, powered Age: 53 Education: Tulane University California Institute of Technology by a single Merlin 1D vacuum engine. was selected as an astronaut by NASA “It was a smoother fi rst stage, a little rougher second stage than we saw Robert Behnken joined the Astronaut Corps in on the shuttle,” says Behnken, the Demo-2 joint operations commander. in 2000, but it was nine years before he made his 2000 after serving as a U.S. Air Force test en- “The shuttle had solid rocket boosters to start with, and those burned way to space as the pilot of STS-127, a July 2009 gineer on the Lockheed Martin F-22 and other very rough for the fi rst 2.5 min.,” adds Hurley, Crew Dragon commander. BILL INGALLS/NASA space shuttle mission to deliver and install the programs. He  ew two space shuttle missions, “The fi rst stage with Falcon 9, with the nine [liquid-fueled] Merlin engines final two components of the Japanese Experiment STS-123 in March 2008 and STS-130 in February and roughly the same amount of time, was a much smoother ride. Module to the International Space Station (ISS). 2010, logging more than 708 hr. in orbit and more “Where the di— erences started . . . was at staging,” he continues. “The He returned to space for the shuttle program’s than 37 hr. spacewalking during six outings. STS-135 finale in July 2011, a cumulative time Behnken, an Air Force colonel with a doctorate in orbit of more than 648 hr. Nine years later, ISS Commander Christopher in mechanical engineering, served as chief of the Hurley found himself in the commander’s seat Cassidy, right, and Russian Astronaut O‰ ce from July 2012 to July 2015 and for the first piloted flight test of NASA’s Commer- cosmonauts Anatoly Ivanishin, then became one of four astronauts embedded cial Crew Program. left, and Ivan Vagner, second with both of NASA’s Commercial Crew provid- Hurley, a retired colonel in the Marine Corps, from left, greeted Demo-2 ers, SpaceX and Boeing, working on developing says the time spent as a Boeing F/A-18 E/F Super astronaut Behnken. space taxis. Hornet test pilot helped him prepare the Behnken is now the joint operations com- NASA-SpaceX team, many of whom were con- mander for the ’ rst crewed  ight of the SpaceX ducting their first human spaceflight. “All along Crew Dragon, which launched on May 30, 2020. in the process that you see in the military, there “The thing that’s really been the most exciting for are delays and technical challenges, and you me working with the SpaceX team is their agility have to work through them,” says Hurley. “There to react to something that we identify as an area were many reasons why we didn’t make the initial that could be improved, or some area that is a [Demo-2] launch date, but that’s generally how problem—the way that they’re able to quickly technological development works.” resolve it,” he said during a prelaunch interview. He launched with fellow astronaut and best He is married to NASA astronaut Megan friend Robert Behnken onboard a SpaceX Crew McArthur and father of their six-year-old son, Dragon capsule on May 30, 2020, and reached who received a call from his dad shortly after the the ISS a day later. “This was an extremely long Dragon reached the ISS. “I just wanted to under- road for Bob and I,” Hurley told reporters during an stand what his experience [of the launch] was infight press conference. “It’s taken hard work and and share that a little bit with him while it was still dedication over almost nine years to get us where fresh in his mind,” Behnken said. we are now. . . . Take a message from NASA,” he He and Crew Dragon Commander Douglas added. “Anything is possible.” Hurley could spend up to four months at the ISS, Hurley is married to retired NASA astronaut helping out the short-sta› ed Expedition 63 crew. Karen Nyberg and is father of their 10-year-old son. NASA

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Hale, now a consultant at Special Aerospace Services. The verdict should be in later this year. Hurley and Behnken transferred to the ongoing Expedition 63 crew, which is short-staffed due to U.S. paid rides on Soyuz coming to an end. The flight readiness of SpaceX’s next Crew Dragon will drive how long the Demo-2 mission lasts. The capsule, which the crew named Endeavour after the retired space shuttle that hosted both astronauts’ first flights, is designed to remain in orbit for up to 119 days. Operational A SpaceX Crew Dragon vehicles will remain docked to the ISS capsule carrying astronauts for six months. for the the first time made What the U.S. will be like when an automated approach and Hurley and Behnken return is uncer- docking at the ISS May 31, tain. Amid ongoing political and eco- nomic turmoil, peaceful and not-so- 19 hr. after reaching orbit. peaceful demonstrations and a deadly NASA virus that has yet to be stemmed, first-stage engine shut off, and then it began mulling whether the commer- NASA is pressing for a 12% budget hike takes a second between the booster cial partnering agreements estab- for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 to separating and the Merlin vacuum en- lished under the George W. Bush ad- $25.2 billion, in an attempt to pull off a gine starting. At that point, we go from ministration to fly cargo to the ISS in crewed lunar landing in 2024. roughly 3g to 0g in half a second, prob- the post-shuttle era could be a model The parallels between the social ably. Then when that Merlin vacuum for transporting astronauts as well. unrest and violence of the 1960s and fires, we start accelerating again for In 2010, during the Obama admin- ’70s, which became a backdrop for the the next 5-6 min. until we achieve orbit. istration, NASA launched the Com- Apollo Moon landings, and present day “It’ll be interesting to talk to the mercial Crew Development program, are eerily similar. “We have had mo- SpaceX folks to find out why it was a lit- ments in American history tle bit rougher ride on the second stage where we have had challenges than it was for the shuttle on those as a nation,” Bridenstine told three main engines,” Hurley adds. reporters after the Demo-2 SpaceX’s capsule is designed to launch. “We think back to fly autonomously, but Hurley and Behnken had two opportunities be- NASA Administrator Jim fore reaching the ISS to input manual Bridenstine, left, President controls, via touch screens, and test Donald Trump, Vice President the Dragon’s handling characteristics. Mike Pence and Second Lady “It flew very well, very crisp . . . just about like the simulators,” Hurley Karen Pence watched the radioed to dual Mission Control Cen- launch on a balcony at ters at SpaceX headquarters in Haw- Kennedy Space Center. thorne, California, and at the Johnson Space Center in Houston. “It’s been a the 1960s with the Vietnam spectacular spaceship so far,” he noted War, the civil rights abuses on Twitter. and the civil rights protests. NASA has been preparing for a new We think about the height of chapter in human space exploration the Cold War. And yet we had BILL INGALLS/NASA since the Columbia Accident Inves- this moment in time—July tigation Board in 2003 called for the aiming not only to save money and 20, 1969—when all of America stopped, retirement of the space shuttles as provide a U.S. alternative to the Rus- literally just stopped, because we had soon as ISS assembly was complete. sian Soyuz crew transport system but American astronauts walking on the Initially, the agency planned to have also seed a new industry for commer- surface of the Moon. And then we re- its Orion deep-space capsule, in devel- cial space travel. peated that five more times. opment since 2006, double as an ISS “The “The Apollo program eventually crew transport. has been a great experiment by NASA ended,” he adds. “But what is great But facing budgets that would not to see if commercial companies can about NASA is that we bring people support both LEO and deep-space do this particular job,” says former together. Everybody loves exploration; transportation initiatives, the agency shuttle program manager Wayne it’s unifying.” c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

Hale, now a consultant at Special Aerospace Services. The verdict should be in later this year. Hurley and Behnken transferred C-390 MILLENNIUM to the ongoing Expedition 63 crew, It’s been a few months since the C-390 MILLENNIUM which is short-staffed due to U.S. paid airlifters started serving the Brazilian Air Force, rides on Soyuz coming to an end. The READY FOR fulfilling the missions for which they were designed flight readiness of SpaceX’s next Crew Dragon will drive how long the Demo-2 with complete success, and in the coming months mission lasts. more units will join the service. At the same time, The capsule, which the crew named the Portuguese Government signed a contract for THE MISSION the acquisition of five units to be operated by the Endeavour after the retired space shuttle that hosted both astronauts’ Portuguese Air Force. This is a significant moment first flights, is designed to remain in in the C-390 MILLENNIUM program, marking its orbit for up to 119 days. Operational Entry Into Service and the confirmation of the A SpaceX Crew Dragon vehicles will remain docked to the ISS aircraft’s operational effectiveness within NATO. capsule carrying astronauts for six months. The combination of 21st century, state-of-the-art for the the first time made What the U.S. will be like when advanced systems and proven engines, in conjunction with a worldwide sustainment alliance of reputable an automated approach and Hurley and Behnken return is uncer- suppliers, makes the C-390 MILLENNIUM the docking at the ISS May 31, tain. Amid ongoing political and eco- nomic turmoil, peaceful and not-so- most reliable, easy to operate and efficient aircraft 19 hr. after reaching orbit. peaceful demonstrations and a deadly in its class. NASA virus that has yet to be stemmed, first-stage engine shut off, and then it began mulling whether the commer- NASA is pressing for a 12% budget hike takes a second between the booster cial partnering agreements estab- for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 to separating and the Merlin vacuum en- lished under the George W. Bush ad- $25.2 billion, in an attempt to pull off a gine starting. At that point, we go from ministration to fly cargo to the ISS in crewed lunar landing in 2024. roughly 3g to 0g in half a second, prob- the post-shuttle era could be a model The parallels between the social ably. Then when that Merlin vacuum for transporting astronauts as well. unrest and violence of the 1960s and fires, we start accelerating again for In 2010, during the Obama admin- ’70s, which became a backdrop for the the next 5-6 min. until we achieve orbit. istration, NASA launched the Com- Apollo Moon landings, and present day “It’ll be interesting to talk to the mercial Crew Development program, are eerily similar. “We have had mo- SpaceX folks to find out why it was a lit- ments in American history tle bit rougher ride on the second stage where we have had challenges than it was for the shuttle on those as a nation,” Bridenstine told three main engines,” Hurley adds. reporters after the Demo-2 SpaceX’s capsule is designed to launch. “We think back to fly autonomously, but Hurley and Behnken had two opportunities be- NASA Administrator Jim fore reaching the ISS to input manual Bridenstine, left, President controls, via touch screens, and test Donald Trump, Vice President the Dragon’s handling characteristics. Mike Pence and Second Lady “It flew very well, very crisp . . . just about like the simulators,” Hurley Karen Pence watched the radioed to dual Mission Control Cen- launch on a balcony at ters at SpaceX headquarters in Haw- Kennedy Space Center. thorne, California, and at the Johnson Space Center in Houston. “It’s been a the 1960s with the Vietnam spectacular spaceship so far,” he noted War, the civil rights abuses on Twitter. and the civil rights protests. NASA has been preparing for a new We think about the height of chapter in human space exploration the Cold War. And yet we had BILL INGALLS/NASA since the Columbia Accident Inves- this moment in time—July tigation Board in 2003 called for the aiming not only to save money and 20, 1969—when all of America stopped, retirement of the space shuttles as provide a U.S. alternative to the Rus- literally just stopped, because we had soon as ISS assembly was complete. sian Soyuz crew transport system but American astronauts walking on the Initially, the agency planned to have also seed a new industry for commer- surface of the Moon. And then we re- its Orion deep-space capsule, in devel- cial space travel. peated that five more times. opment since 2006, double as an ISS “The Commercial Crew program “The Apollo program eventually crew transport. has been a great experiment by NASA ended,” he adds. “But what is great But facing budgets that would not to see if commercial companies can about NASA is that we bring people support both LEO and deep-space do this particular job,” says former together. Everybody loves exploration; transportation initiatives, the agency shuttle program manager Wayne it’s unifying.” c c-390.com

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Raytheon’s AIM-120 Amraam has WESTERN EDGE kept more or less the same shape throughout its life, but technology has allowed the weapon to expand its > TECHNOLOGY BOOSTS AIR-TO-AIR MISSILE SUPREMACY OF THE WEST range, engagement envelope and PK. Advancements in modern electron- > AESA-BASED ACTIVE SEEKERS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE ics and miniaturization of components COMMONPLACE ON MISSILES can open additional room in the mis- sile body to squeeze in more propel- Tony Osborne London lant. Engineers must strike a balance, however, to maintain the weapon’s WHEN THEN- SWEDISH make sure that European air forces aerodynamic loading and mass, as PART Air Force chief Mats at least have a weapon that maintains well as its center of gravity, as the 2 OF 2 Helgesson declared the long-range [beyond-visual-range] supe- propellant is used up. Other options MBDA’s Meteor beyond- riority over weapons like the [Chinese] to expand range might be to use a dif- visual-range air-to-air missile in ser- PL-15 in a way that the AIM-120 family ferent mix of propellants. The Defense vice in 2016, he hailed the weapon as a cannot. I think we will see more ram- Science and Technology Laboratory “game changer” for the country’s Saab jet-powered weapons from other manu- in the UK has been exploring the use Gripen fighter fleet. It meant the Gripen at last had a weapon the Swedish Air Force knew would outrange the air-to-air weap- ons being fielded by the Russians in the Baltic region. “It gives us capabilities that we really need to defend our airspace,” Helgesson said then. “That means a lot to the air defense of a small country.” The principle of the Meteor’s ram- jet is relatively simple: At launch, the weapon is boosted to speed by a rocket motor, propelled by fuel that fills the void in the missile case that will ultimately become the ramjet’s combustion chamber. As the weapon builds up to speeds beyond Mach 2 and the rocket pro - pellant is expended, it transitions to Since its introduction on the Gripen, the MBDA Meteor ramjet operation, allowing it to be is now operational on the Eurofighter Typhoon and the throttled to speeds of Mach 5. Dassault Rafale. Integration for the F-35 is ongoing. As well as boosting range, this also increases the weapon’s lethality, STEFAN KALM/SAAB known as its probability of kill (PK), facturers in the future as countries look of a process called Resonant Acoustic MBDA asserts, because it is able to to improve the ability of nonstealthy Mixing (RAM), which allows propel- maintain energy in the final moments assets to contribute kinetic fires from lants and even warhead explosive to of the engagement and react if the tar- outside the highest-threat airspace.” be better mixed together. get aircraft attempts to maneuver out Ramjet technology goes a long way BAE Systems’ experiments with of the weapon’s path. toward resolving the issue of long- RAM-mixed explosives yielded a 20% “The mantra of Meteor was to range performance with high-end increase in explosive power than more achieve the range of Phoenix with capability without needing an ever- traditional forms of mixing. If similar the agility of Amraam [Advanced larger aircraft to carry the engines. improvements can be made in the mix- Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile],” But it comes with a premium price tag ing of propellant, this could lead to ad- says Russ Martin, head of military that does not fit every missile need. ditional space being saved inside a mis- advisors at MBDA. “If you want to Instead, manufacturers are explor- sile body. In the new version of France’s increase range there is compromise; ing a number of new approaches to Mica NG missile, to debut around 2026, you can add more propellant,” he says. extend range. engineers plan to use a dual-pulse mo- “But you cannot keep putting bigger One of the easiest solutions is to add tor developed by Roxel that provides and bigger missiles on fewer and few- more fuel to the missile. But this is not the weapon with up to 30% more range. er fighters.” easy if the weapon is constrained by the The pulse also can be used to provide Justin Bronk, an airpower and tech- need to maintain form factors, a com- more power when dealing with highly nology research fellow at the London- mon issue when a missile is integrated maneuverable targets. based Royal United Services Institute onto advanced combat aircraft with fly- Cleaning up weapon aerodynam- says: “What Meteor has done is to by-wire control systems, for example. ics is another option. While they look

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Each iteration of the Amraam’s development Raytheon’s AIM-120 Amraam has has introduced miniaturized systems and WESTERN EDGE kept more or less the same shape technologies to increase range and throughout its life, but technology lethality. Cropped fins were used has allowed the weapon to expand its to allow the weapon to squeeze range, engagement envelope and PK. > TECHNOLOGY BOOSTS AIR-TO-AIR MISSILE SUPREMACY OF THE WEST into the weapon bays of Advancements in modern electron- > AESA-BASED ACTIVE SEEKERS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE ics and miniaturization of components low-observable fighters. COMMONPLACE ON MISSILES can open additional room in the mis- sile body to squeeze in more propel- Tony Osborne London lant. Engineers must strike a balance, Raytheon’s AIM-9 Sidewinder has however, to maintain the weapon’s evolved rapidly since its development WHEN THEN- SWEDISH make sure that European air forces aerodynamic loading and mass, as in the 1950s and is now available in the well as its center of gravity, as the PART Air Force chief Mats at least have a weapon that maintains AIM-9X version as a highly agile dogfighting missile. 2 OF 2 Helgesson declared the long-range [beyond-visual-range] supe- propellant is used up. Other options TURBOSQUID MBDA’s Meteor beyond- riority over weapons like the [Chinese] to expand range might be to use a dif- visual-range air-to-air missile in ser- PL-15 in a way that the AIM-120 family ferent mix of propellants. The Defense sleek, many air-to-air missiles feature data link. That allowed it to commu- comes to fitting the technologies into vice in 2016, he hailed the weapon as a cannot. I think we will see more ram- Science and Technology Laboratory drag-inducing components that allow nicate back and forth with the launch the small nosecone of an air-to-air “game changer” for the country’s Saab jet-powered weapons from other manu- in the UK has been exploring the use them to be slid on rails and connect aircraft, while a conformal antenna on missile, but Israel’s Rafael has taken Gripen fighter fleet. to the aircraft via umbilical cable. the nose offers a wider field of view to the first steps. Its Stunner surface- It meant the Gripen at last had a That physical connection to the air- receive targeting updates from more to-air missile, jointly developed with weapon the Swedish Air Force knew craft can potentially be replaced with angles in flight. Raytheon, uses both radar and im- would outrange the air-to-air weap- a wireless one. Such proposals have Other major steps to improve weap- aging seekers, installed inside an ons being fielded by the Russians in been suggested for the weapons that on lethality will be the introduction of asymmetric nose. It seems likely the the Baltic region. might equip Britain’s future Tempest new technology into radio-frequency technology will make the leap to an “It gives us capabilities that we combat aircraft. (RF) seekers, such as active, electroni- air-to-air missile in the coming years, really need to defend our airspace,” It remains unclear, however, what cally scanned array (AESA) technology. perhaps in the next-generation Python Helgesson said then. “That means a lot technologies have been adopted for Just as AESAs have revolutionized or Derby missiles developed by Rafael. to the air defense of a small country.” the U.S. Air Force’s future long-range the fighter’s fire-control radar, the MBDA is currently advancing the The principle of the Meteor’s ram- air-to-air missile—the Lockheed technology is able to bring similar development of the Mica NG, a rad- jet is relatively simple: At launch, Martin AIM-260. Details of the air benefits to missiles with their low- ically reengineered version of the the weapon is boosted to speed by a intercept missile program, developed er-energy requirements compared legacy Mica missile, which was devel- rocket motor, propelled by fuel that as a counter to the Chinese PL-15, to more conventional active seekers. oped in the 1980s and 1990s for the fills the void in the missile case that were revealed last summer (AW&ST They are also better able to deal with Rafale family (AW&ST June 17-30, will ultimately become the ramjet’s July 1-14, 2019, p. 36). electronic countermeasures. 2019, p. 102). The Mica was developed combustion chamber. According to the Air Force, the “AESA technology has virtually no through France’s experience with the As the weapon builds up to speeds AIM-260 shares similar dimensions downsides apart from being a tech- Magic family of IR-guided missiles and beyond Mach 2 and the rocket pro - with the AIM-120 and provides “sig- nology that is difficult to master,” says the R.530 family of semiactive radar- pellant is expended, it transitions to Since its introduction on the Gripen, the MBDA Meteor nificantly greater” range. The service Bronk. guided missiles. The Mica, which ramjet operation, allowing it to be is now operational on the Eurofighter Typhoon and the has also said it does not use air-breath- Japan’s AAM-4B already has a was developed in two versions—one throttled to speeds of Mach 5. Dassault Rafale. Integration for the F-35 is ongoing. ing propulsion, leading to speculation locally developed AESA seeker. Offi- an IR-guided version, the other an As well as boosting range, this about what approach could provide cials say the weapon can switch to its RF-seeker version—makes use of the also increases the weapon’s lethality, STEFAN KALM/SAAB the additional range. Missile experts own guidance at a 40% greater range same airframe but features minor known as its probability of kill (PK), facturers in the future as countries look of a process called Resonant Acoustic interviewed by Aviation Week sug- than the AIM-120, allowing the fight- modifications at the nose to package MBDA asserts, because it is able to to improve the ability of nonstealthy Mixing (RAM), which allows propel- gest several different approaches to er updating the missile to “snip” the the different seeker heads. maintain energy in the final moments assets to contribute kinetic fires from lants and even warhead explosive to the problem, with miniaturization of bond between fighter and missile ear- The Mica can be used in both the of the engagement and react if the tar- outside the highest-threat airspace.” be better mixed together. the weapon’s electronics at the top of lier and from a much safer distance— within-visual-range and beyond- get aircraft attempts to maneuver out Ramjet technology goes a long way BAE Systems’ experiments with the list. It is an approach that has al- allowing the aircraft to engage anoth- visual-range environment, making of the weapon’s path. toward resolving the issue of long- RAM-mixed explosives yielded a 20% ready worked well for the weapon that er target. The scalability of an AESA it one of only a handful of Western “The mantra of Meteor was to range performance with high-end increase in explosive power than more the AIM-260 will go on to replace, the means the technology can be used on IR-guided missiles designed to oper- achieve the range of Phoenix with capability without needing an ever- traditional forms of mixing. If similar AIM-120. smaller missiles as well. MBDA is al- ate beyond visual range. the agility of Amraam [Advanced larger aircraft to carry the engines. improvements can be made in the mix- The Amraam is the West’s preemi- ready planning to use an AESA in the Progressive upgrades have kept Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile],” But it comes with a premium price tag ing of propellant, this could lead to ad- nent long-range air-to-air missile, with RF-guided version of the Mica NG. the West’s shorter-range missiles rel- says Russ Martin, head of military that does not fit every missile need. ditional space being saved inside a mis- 10 kills to its credit. Miniaturization of In the same way that AESA technol- evant. Indeed, the alphabet has almost advisors at MBDA. “If you want to Instead, manufacturers are explor- sile body. In the new version of France’s the Amraam’s components has been ogy is less prone to jamming, imaging run out of letters to define the number increase range there is compromise; ing a number of new approaches to Mica NG missile, to debut around 2026, part of the weapon’s development infrared (IIR) technologies can help of upgrades for the AIM-9 Sidewind- you can add more propellant,” he says. extend range. engineers plan to use a dual-pulse mo- throughout its life. The AIM-120C-7, prevent the missile from being seduced er, now in its 9X derivative. Since the “But you cannot keep putting bigger One of the easiest solutions is to add tor developed by Roxel that provides for example, introduced electron- by decoy flares. There is discussion 9X was developed in the early 2000s, and bigger missiles on fewer and few- more fuel to the missile. But this is not the weapon with up to 30% more range. ics on round, rather than longitudi- about whether multimode seekers, Raytheon has adopted a Block up - er fighters.” easy if the weapon is constrained by the The pulse also can be used to provide nal cards, opening additional space. perhaps combining RF and IIR to work grade approach to the weapon. Justin Bronk, an airpower and tech- need to maintain form factors, a com- more power when dealing with highly When it came to adding more capa- together, could result in weapons less From the AIM-9M to the 9X, nology research fellow at the London- mon issue when a missile is integrated maneuverable targets. bility to the Delta model of the weap- susceptible to countermeasures. Raytheon added thrust-vectoring based Royal United Services Institute onto advanced combat aircraft with fly- Cleaning up weapon aerodynam- on, which arrived on the front line in There are costs and technical hur- vanes and flight controls for extreme says: “What Meteor has done is to by-wire control systems, for example. ics is another option. While they look 2015, Raytheon added a bidirectional dles to overcome, particularly when it agility. The company also strength-

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 29 DEFENSE

ened the airframe to cope with higher get closer to their targets than non- mode autonomous seeker that could G load, with a high-resolution IIR-star- stealthy aircraft, but they are com- attain the reach of the medium-range ing focal plane array seeker in the nose. promised by only being able to carry AIM-120 and the maneuverability of Raytheon miniaturized several compo- a few weapons in their weapon bays. the short-range AIM-9X. Lockheed nents in the weapon’s guidance unit and The Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, for Martin has previously unveiled its fuse on the Block 2 upgrade, opening example, can carry a maximum of six CUDA concept, a hit-to-kill weapon room to add a data link, a technology AIM-120s in its weapon bay and two using technology from the company’s that is becoming more commonplace AIM-9s in the side bays, while the PAC-3 missile. It would be equipped even on smaller missiles. Lockheed Martin F-35 is currently with a radar seeker and forward at- Israel continues to place a premi- able to carry just four AIM-120s inter- titude control motors for high agility. um on highly agile dogfighting mis- nally, although efforts are underway “Smaller missiles could be the next siles, including the Python 5, revealed to enable the carriage of six. major step,” suggests Bronk. “Having to the world in 2003, which like the Aircraft such as the Eurofighter spent so much on stealthy aircraft, Sidewinder has steadily evolved. The Typhoon can carry up to eight air-to- there is an attractiveness in increas- weapon makes use of an IIR seeker air missiles in different configurations, ing their cost-effectiveness per kill.” that presents a “recognizable” target while Boeing has demonstrated the As adversary missiles become image, thereby allowing the guid- ability of advanced versions of its F-15 smarter, industry is also looking at the ance computer to select the most Eagle to carry 16-20 beyond-visual- need for defensive hard-kill missiles effective impact point, which is at a range missiles in an “arsenal fighter” that could be treated like an expend- point slightly to the rear of the target configuration. able flare or chaff. MBDA is studying cockpit canopy, according to Aviation U.S. manufacturers have proposed the potential for such systems for Week reporting. several smaller weapons that could Europe’s future combat air systems, But it is low-observable aircraft help aircraft such as the F-22 double while the U.S. Air Force issued a call that may drive the next steps in air- their internal missile loads. Raythe- for the development of a Miniature to-air missile development. By their on last year proposed the Peregrine, Self-Defense Munition last November very nature, stealthy aircraft can a 6-ft. (1.8-m) missile with a multi- (AW&ST Oct. 28-Nov. 10, 2019, p. 57). c

Force service only around 2015. The Beijing Is Taking Air-to-Air weapon has since been seen on com- Missile Lead From Russia bat aircraft participating in missions over Syria and on recent Sukhoi Su-35 intercepts in the Baltic Sea. The vari- > THE PL-15 IS ONE OF THE PROMPTS FOR AIM-260 DEVELOPMENT ant now in service in Russia is the R-77-1 (AA-12B), which is an upgrade > CHINESE PROGRESS MAY HAVE SPURRED RENEWED of the basic missile. A further devel- RUSSIAN INVESTMENT opment, likely to be designated as the AA-X-12C, Barrie suggests, may Tony Osborne London also be in testing and destined for use on the Su-57 Felon and the Su-35S he sight of four long-range air- “If you look at what the Chinese Flanker-M. to-air missiles in the weapons have invested into air-to-air missile Russia also needs to address a re- Tbay of China’s Chengdu J-20 development in terms of intellectual placement or modernization plan for low-observable fighter at the Zhuhai capital and finance, and contrast it the R-73/74 (AA-11A/B Archer) fam- Airshow two years ago rang alarm with the Russian equivalent, there is ily of short-range missiles, experts bells among officials throughout the no comparison,” says Douglas Barrie, say. Although the performance of the Pentagon. an aerospace fellow with the London- Archer surprised the West in the ear- Their fear was that China’s accel- based International Institute for Stra- ly 1990s because of the way its seeker erated air-to-air missile work had de- tegic Studies. was combined with a helmet-mount- veloped a weapon that could match, or Russia’s air-to-air missile industry ed sight, its lack of imaging infrared even exceed, the classified range for has been steadily getting back on its (IIR) seeker, which is now a prerequi- the most state-of-the-art variant of the feet over the past decade. The sector site for a modern within-visual-range U.S. Advanced Medium-Range Air-to- was hobbled by limited investment in weapon, means it is more vulnerable Air Missile (Amraam)—a weapon in the post-Cold War period and large- to countermeasures from those weap- service not only with the U.S. but also ly sustained by exports until the last ons with an IIR seeker. Vympel is said with several regional allies. few years. to be working on a new version of the It is not an unreasonable assump- Although it has been in develop - weapon with an IIR seeker. tion, analysts suggest. In terms of air- ment since the end of the Cold War, The Russian Air Force has also to-air missile technologies produced the Vympel R-77 (AA-12 Adder), also taken deliveries of the 200-km-range by the U.S.’ near-peer adversaries, known as Moscow’s equivalent to the (120-mi.) Vympel R-37M (AA-13A China is now the one to watch. U.S. Amraam, entered Russian Air Axehead). This is an updated version

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE JUNE 2020 ened the airframe to cope with higher get closer to their targets than non- mode autonomous seeker that could G load, with a high-resolution IIR-star- stealthy aircraft, but they are com- attain the reach of the medium-range ing focal plane array seeker in the nose. promised by only being able to carry AIM-120 and the maneuverability of Raytheon miniaturized several compo- a few weapons in their weapon bays. the short-range AIM-9X. Lockheed nents in the weapon’s guidance unit and The Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, for Martin has previously unveiled its fuse on the Block 2 upgrade, opening example, can carry a maximum of six CUDA concept, a hit-to-kill weapon room to add a data link, a technology AIM-120s in its weapon bay and two using technology from the company’s that is becoming more commonplace AIM-9s in the side bays, while the PAC-3 missile. It would be equipped even on smaller missiles. Lockheed Martin F-35 is currently with a radar seeker and forward at- SPECIAL Israel continues to place a premi- able to carry just four AIM-120s inter- titude control motors for high agility. um on highly agile dogfighting mis- nally, although efforts are underway “Smaller missiles could be the next siles, including the Python 5, revealed to enable the carriage of six. major step,” suggests Bronk. “Having MISSION MODS to the world in 2003, which like the Aircraft such as the Eurofighter spent so much on stealthy aircraft, Sidewinder has steadily evolved. The Typhoon can carry up to eight air-to- there is an attractiveness in increas- weapon makes use of an IIR seeker air missiles in different configurations, ing their cost-effectiveness per kill.” W that presents a “recognizable” target while Boeing has demonstrated the As adversary missiles become image, thereby allowing the guid- ability of advanced versions of its F-15 smarter, industry is also looking at the ance computer to select the most Eagle to carry 16-20 beyond-visual- need for defensive hard-kill missiles D effective impact point, which is at a range missiles in an “arsenal fighter” that could be treated like an expend- point slightly to the rear of the target configuration. able flare or chaff. MBDA is studying cockpit canopy, according to Aviation U.S. manufacturers have proposed the potential for such systems for Week reporting. several smaller weapons that could Europe’s future combat air systems, But it is low-observable aircraft help aircraft such as the F-22 double while the U.S. Air Force issued a call that may drive the next steps in air- their internal missile loads. Raythe- for the development of a Miniature to-air missile development. By their on last year proposed the Peregrine, Self-Defense Munition last November very nature, stealthy aircraft can a 6-ft. (1.8-m) missile with a multi- (AW&ST Oct. 28-Nov. 10, 2019, p. 57). c

Force service only around 2015. The Beijing Is Taking Air-to-Air weapon has since been seen on com- Missile Lead From Russia bat aircraft participating in missions over Syria and on recent Sukhoi Su-35 intercepts in the Baltic Sea. The vari- > THE PL-15 IS ONE OF THE PROMPTS FOR AIM-260 DEVELOPMENT ant now in service in Russia is the R-77-1 (AA-12B), which is an upgrade > CHINESE PROGRESS MAY HAVE SPURRED RENEWED of the basic missile. A further devel- RUSSIAN INVESTMENT opment, likely to be designated as the AA-X-12C, Barrie suggests, may Tony Osborne London also be in testing and destined for use on the Su-57 Felon and the Su-35S he sight of four long-range air- “If you look at what the Chinese Flanker-M. to-air missiles in the weapons have invested into air-to-air missile Russia also needs to address a re- Tbay of China’s Chengdu J-20 development in terms of intellectual placement or modernization plan for low-observable fighter at the Zhuhai capital and finance, and contrast it the R-73/74 (AA-11A/B Archer) fam- Airshow two years ago rang alarm with the Russian equivalent, there is ily of short-range missiles, experts bells among officials throughout the no comparison,” says Douglas Barrie, say. Although the performance of the Pentagon. an aerospace fellow with the London- Archer surprised the West in the ear- Their fear was that China’s accel- based International Institute for Stra- ly 1990s because of the way its seeker erated air-to-air missile work had de- tegic Studies. was combined with a helmet-mount- veloped a weapon that could match, or Russia’s air-to-air missile industry ed sight, its lack of imaging infrared even exceed, the classified range for has been steadily getting back on its (IIR) seeker, which is now a prerequi- the most state-of-the-art variant of the feet over the past decade. The sector site for a modern within-visual-range U.S. Advanced Medium-Range Air-to- was hobbled by limited investment in weapon, means it is more vulnerable Air Missile (Amraam)—a weapon in the post-Cold War period and large- to countermeasures from those weap- service not only with the U.S. but also ly sustained by exports until the last ons with an IIR seeker. Vympel is said with several regional allies. few years. to be working on a new version of the D D ADDITIE MANUACTURIN It is not an unreasonable assump- Although it has been in develop - weapon with an IIR seeker. tion, analysts suggest. In terms of air- ment since the end of the Cold War, The Russian Air Force has also E L I U T to-air missile technologies produced the Vympel R-77 (AA-12 Adder), also taken deliveries of the 200-km-range by the U.S.’ near-peer adversaries, known as Moscow’s equivalent to the (120-mi.) Vympel R-37M (AA-13A China is now the one to watch. U.S. Amraam, entered Russian Air Axehead). This is an updated version

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Always reaching higher

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MRO 4 HIGHLIGHTS & NEWS BRIEFS MAINTENANCE CHECK

SAFETY & REGULATORY The March MRO 6 Boeing Exemption Request MRO 7 Pandemic Spotlights Forward for MRO Cleaning Protocols MRO 8 ARSA Update y son just graduated from high school dur- AIRLINE INSIGHT ing a pandemic, global What business improvements MRO 9 Ryanair M Karsten Muhlenfeld on how warming, worldwide recession, will you make during this the airline is adjusting MRO and riots in the U.S. following the stressful time? DATA death of George Floyd. This is far MRO 12 Data for Lessors from the environment in which I want to launch him into the world. How lessors keep track of the data generated by their His virtual commencement speak- Aviation Week’s Fleet Discovery equipment and improvements er, Chris Cox, former Facebook chief data shows that the number of parked/ they would like to see product officer, acknowledged this reserve aircraft (those flying 1-2 days OPERATIONS isn’t the ideal time to be graduating per week) has increased from 2,670 on MRO 16 Pandemic Complications but pointed to Isaac Newton, who fled May 14 to 3,153 on May 28, meaning Lessors and lessees try to Trinity College in Cambridge to escape that airlines are preparing to resume adjust to the new normal for the bubonic plague in 1665. While quar- more flights. Also, in May the 10 larg- the lease-return process antining at home, he created new in- est European airlines showed a fairly sights into math—helping to develop steady increase in flight hours but only AIRCRAFT what is now calculus. He also stud- a very slight increase in cycles, indi- MRO 17 Medical Mods cating more actual revenue or What goes into converting passenger and cargo aircraft Global Fleet Status cargo flights, as opposed to for medical missions? those needed to retain parked/ Stored reserve or idle status. ENGINES The number of aircraft that MRO 20 Engine MRO Plagued Parked have moved into long-term stor- by Low Demand age has also increased, suggest- The availability of spare ing that airlines are taking steps engines with life left will to position their assets in accor- save airlines money dance with their recovery plans. WORKFORCE Parts sales, especially for MRO 21 Workforce Trends those on the lower end of the Study findings reveal the price spectrum and PMA parts, Parked/Reserve In Service impact of the labor shortage started to pick up for several and the MRO outlook Source: Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery companies in May. Given that MRO revolves ENGINEERED ied optics and found that white light around maintaining the worldwide MRO 23 Additive Advantage is composed of a spectrum of colors. fleet, gaining an understanding of its The COVID-19 crisis Source: Aiation ee Netor leet Discoer highlights the value of Newton also contemplated how the composition is a big step forward for additive manufacturing for universe worked and in so doing dis- the aftermarket. Now we just need aerospace and MRO covered gravity. people to resume flying. Most people’s pandemic productiv- That process won’t happen as re- ENGINE ANALYSIS ity is nothing like this, but it is good to gally as the “Pomp and Circumstance” MRO 26 GE90 Outlook focus on what you can do and consider march written by Sir Edward Elgar in An overview of airworthiness the possibilities. What adjustments 1901, but hopefully the march will be directives affecting the GE90 and business improvements can you steady. So less pomp, but the circum- MRO LINKS make during this stressful time? stances are starting to look positive for MRO 28 Remote-Collaboration Tools One positive is that airline traffic our industry’s recovery. June should be is starting to rebound. Chinese air- a good indicator. VIEWPOINT lines carried 1.04 million passengers Hold your chin up and move for - MRO 30 Paul Oliver, Airbus on June 5, the first time this has hap- ward! c pened since Jan. 28, according to the COVER: LUFTHANSA TECHNIK Civil Aviation Administration of China. —Lee Ann Shay

AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 MRO3 O News Briefs

Highlights Briefs Air Canada completed its final Boeing 767 CRJ Aftermarket Support Changes Hands passenger flight (24307; Montreal-Toronto) Bombardier’s exit from commercial aerospace was finalized June 1 with the on June 2; it operated 767s for 38 years. sale of its CRJ aircraft program to Japanese manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in a deal that includes its maintenance support services. Avia Solutions Group, which owns FL The sale of the regional jet program became somewhat drawn out, with both parties entering negotiations last year before agreeing on a $550 million Technics and Storm Aviation, has decided price last October. The deal paves the way for Bombardier to focus solely on to sell Baltic Ground Services Poland. business jet production, after offloading all of its commercial aircraft pro- grams—including the Q400 to an affiliate of Longview Aviation Capital in DHL took delivery of an EFW-converted 2019, followed by the sale of its C Series program to Airbus. Airbus A330-300F (777; ex-China Eastern), Operating as the newly established MHI RJ Aviation Group to be based out its fourth; it is expected to take two more in of Montreal, MHI will assume control of all maintenance, engineering, airwor- 2020 and up to 12 total. It is the first high- thiness certification support, refurbishment, asset management, marketing gross-weight-converted A330 and has a and sales activities for the CRJ. In addition, MHI will take on the regional aircraft’s type certificates and related intellectual property rights. 62-ton-plus payload. EFW received the The service centers it picks up as part of this deal will likely further boost supplemental type certificate in 2017. MHI’s aftermarket network for its own SpaceJet program, which has been hampered by a string of delays owing to technical issues. It is now expected GE Aviation won a $394 million contract to enter service in either late 2021 or early 2022. to provide J85 engine supplies for T-38s operated by the U.S. Air Force and Navy. India Tax Changes Seek To Bolster MRO The T-38 is expected to remain operational Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced, as part of a stimu- until 2040. lus plan, a package of initiatives aimed at industrial infrastructure, coal and mineral mining, defense production, civil aviation and aircraft maintenance. GA Telesis created the Flight Solutions In civil aviation, Sitharaman is aiming to reduce operating costs by $130 mil- Group (FSG) by combining its Component lion a year. The minister notes that only 60% of Indian airspace is now available Solutions Group (part-outs, parts sales, for civil aviation. She wants to ease restrictions so civilian flying becomes more efficient and management of airspace improves to save fuel, time and costs. distribution, flight hour services, inventory The ministry is also seeking to develop world-class airports through public- leasing, APU management and repair man- private partnerships. Six more airports have been identified for a second agement) with newly formed GAT Logistics round of bidding, and Sitharaman expects additional private investment in Solutions Group (logistics/warehousing) and 12 airports of about $1.7 billion. Tarmac Solutions Group (tooling/GSE). It Both airspace and airport improvements would benefit aircraft maintenance projects FSG will double its revenue by 2023. indirectly. But the minister also wants India to become a global hub for aircraft MRO. She says the tax regime for the MRO ecosystem has been rational- ized, and she expects Indian component repairs and airframe maintenance INDIGO is expected to return up to 120 to increase annual revenue to $260 million from $104 million in three years. A320ceo-family aircraft to lessors over next Sitharaman’s MRO plans also include major engine manufacturers setting two years, to be replaced with A320neos. up repair facilities in India in the coming year, and a “convergence between defense and the civil MROs” to create economies of scale. Domestic, more ITS plans in late June to tear down an ex- efficient MRO should also lower unit maintenance costs for India’s airlines. SAS 737-800 (28324) in Wales, It maintains inventories in Chandler, Arizona, and . AAR To Close Duluth Facility U.S.-based MRO provider AAR plans to close its facility at Duluth, Minne- ST Engineering secured S$838 million sota, by late July following a decrease in work related to the novel corona- ($603 million) in aerospace contracts in the virus pandemic. first quarter of 2020 versus S$1.3 billion in AAR says it was informed by a primary customer that due to the global the same period in 2019. New deals include industry downturn, the facility will receive no new maintenance projects at the site “for the foreseeable future.” MRO contracts from Chinese airlines for Once the facility closes, around 275 staff will lose their jobs, AAR says. Staff A320s and CFM56-7Bs and from a South- were informed of the decision to permanently close the shop in mid-May. east Asian airline for 737 and Q400 compo- The move to shut down the Duluth International Airport site, which AAR nent support. opened in 2012 after its previous occupation by Northwest Airlines, represents a step change after the company renewed its lease with the Duluth Economic Triumph Systems and Support extended Development Authority for another 20 years last year. an MRO contract for an international CH-47 2 At the 188,000-ft. facility, AAR has specialized in Airbus and Boeing nar- Chinook fleet for six more years. rowbody airframes across six support shops with capacity for up to four narrowbodies at a time. c Briefs Source: SpeedNews

MRO4 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O News Briefs

Highlights Briefs Air Canada completed its final Boeing 767 CRJ Aftermarket Support Changes Hands passenger flight (24307; Montreal-Toronto) Bombardier’s exit from commercial aerospace was finalized June 1 with the on June 2; it operated 767s for 38 years. sale of its CRJ aircraft program to Japanese manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in a deal that includes its maintenance support services. Avia Solutions Group, which owns FL The sale of the regional jet program became somewhat drawn out, with both parties entering negotiations last year before agreeing on a $550 million Technics and Storm Aviation, has decided price last October. The deal paves the way for Bombardier to focus solely on to sell Baltic Ground Services Poland. business jet production, after offloading all of its commercial aircraft pro- grams—including the Q400 to an affiliate of Longview Aviation Capital in DHL took delivery of an EFW-converted 2019, followed by the sale of its C Series program to Airbus. Airbus A330-300F (777; ex-China Eastern), Operating as the newly established MHI RJ Aviation Group to be based out its fourth; it is expected to take two more in of Montreal, MHI will assume control of all maintenance, engineering, airwor- 2020 and up to 12 total. It is the first high- thiness certification support, refurbishment, asset management, marketing gross-weight-converted A330 and has a and sales activities for the CRJ. In addition, MHI will take on the regional aircraft’s type certificates and related intellectual property rights. 62-ton-plus payload. EFW received the The service centers it picks up as part of this deal will likely further boost supplemental type certificate in 2017. MHI’s aftermarket network for its own SpaceJet program, which has been Navigate the Road to hampered by a string of delays owing to technical issues. It is now expected GE Aviation won a $394 million contract to enter service in either late 2021 or early 2022. to provide J85 engine supplies for T-38s operated by the U.S. Air Force and Navy. Recovery with Confi dence India Tax Changes Seek To Bolster MRO The T-38 is expected to remain operational Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced, as part of a stimu- until 2040. lus plan, a package of initiatives aimed at industrial infrastructure, coal and mineral mining, defense production, civil aviation and aircraft maintenance. GA Telesis created the Flight Solutions The only solution dedicated to commercial aftermarket In civil aviation, Sitharaman is aiming to reduce operating costs by $130 mil- Group (FSG) by combining its Component lion a year. The minister notes that only 60% of Indian airspace is now available Solutions Group (part-outs, parts sales, for civil aviation. She wants to ease restrictions so civilian flying becomes more professionals, MRO Prospector contains accurate and reliable efficient and management of airspace improves to save fuel, time and costs. distribution, flight hour services, inventory The ministry is also seeking to develop world-class airports through public- leasing, APU management and repair man- MRO data and intelligence so you can fi nd new opportunities. private partnerships. Six more airports have been identified for a second agement) with newly formed GAT Logistics round of bidding, and Sitharaman expects additional private investment in Solutions Group (logistics/warehousing) and 12 airports of about $1.7 billion. Tarmac Solutions Group (tooling/GSE). It Both airspace and airport improvements would benefit aircraft maintenance projects FSG will double its revenue by 2023. indirectly. But the minister also wants India to become a global hub for aircraft MRO. She says the tax regime for the MRO ecosystem has been rational- ized, and she expects Indian component repairs and airframe maintenance INDIGO is expected to return up to 120 to increase annual revenue to $260 million from $104 million in three years. A320ceo-family aircraft to lessors over next Sitharaman’s MRO plans also include major engine manufacturers setting two years, to be replaced with A320neos. up repair facilities in India in the coming year, and a “convergence between Details on thousands Discover maintenance Research operator’s fl eets defense and the civil MROs” to create economies of scale. Domestic, more ITS plans in late June to tear down an ex- of contracts covering opportunities, including by tail number, including efficient MRO should also lower unit maintenance costs for India’s airlines. SAS 737-800 (28324) in Wales, It maintains 37,000 aircraft and component repairs by age, hours, cycles and inventories in Chandler, Arizona, and Dublin. 80,000 engines. ATA Chapter. lease status. AAR To Close Duluth Facility U.S.-based MRO provider AAR plans to close its facility at Duluth, Minne- ST Engineering secured S$838 million sota, by late July following a decrease in work related to the novel corona- ($603 million) in aerospace contracts in the virus pandemic. first quarter of 2020 versus S$1.3 billion in AAR says it was informed by a primary customer that due to the global the same period in 2019. New deals include industry downturn, the facility will receive no new maintenance projects at the site “for the foreseeable future.” MRO contracts from Chinese airlines for Visit aviationweek.com/MROP to schedule your demo. Once the facility closes, around 275 staff will lose their jobs, AAR says. Staff A320s and CFM56-7Bs and from a South- were informed of the decision to permanently close the shop in mid-May. east Asian airline for 737 and Q400 compo- The move to shut down the Duluth International Airport site, which AAR nent support. opened in 2012 after its previous occupation by Northwest Airlines, represents a step change after the company renewed its lease with the Duluth Economic Triumph Systems and Support extended Call 866.857.0148 (within N. America) Development Authority for another 20 years last year. an MRO contract for an international CH-47 2 At the 188,000-ft. facility, AAR has specialized in Airbus and Boeing nar- Chinook fleet for six more years. +1.847.763.9147, or go to rowbody airframes across six support shops with capacity for up to four aviationweek.com/MROP narrowbodies at a time. c Briefs Source: SpeedNews

MRO4 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Safety & Regulatory Boeing Exemption Request Eyes 737NG Tailpipe Fire Issue

Boeing has asked the FAA for an ex- 737-700 built in late 2011 and delivered but offered an alternative. “[P]rovid- emption that would allow it to modify a via a lessor to KLM, where it remains ed adequate justification is provided, 737NG engine exhaust part and permit in service. Boeing may wish to consider submit- its installation throughout the CFM56- The new exhaust eliminated regu- ting a request for exemption to 14 CFR 7 fleet. The upside: The change would latory-compliance issues, but it intro- 25.863 to allow drain holes to be add- cut down on aborted takeoffs (ATO) duced other challenges. Among them ed to the long-exhaust plug,” Boeing and other in-service incidents linked was that many 737NG operators now quotes the agency as saying in its reply. to apparent engine fires, and it would had different engine-exhaust configu- Earlier this year, Boeing submit- save operators money. The downside: rations, each requiring its own spare ted its exemption request, includ- The part, and by extension the entire parts. It also did nothing to solve the ing a provision that would allow the 737NG fleet, would not meet FAA long-exhaust configuration problems. new plug to be installed on the entire flammability-protection rules. The CFM56-5-powered Airbus CFM56-7 fleet. The complex story dates from 2009, A320ceo-family fleet had a similar “The current restrictions on the when Boeing learned that its CFM56-7 issue with its long-exhaust design. long-exhaust configuration increase “long” exhaust did not meet FAA Part Airbus proposed the drain-hole modi- airline operating costs arising from 25.863, which calls for minimizing risk fication, which the European Union additional inventory cost and configu- of fluid ignition in components where Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) ac- ration management,” Boeing says. “In leaks are possible. The issue involved oil cepted. EASA reasoned that the risk addition, removing this restriction will allow greater operator flexibility and increased efficiency.” Boeing’s requested exemption would The new plug would cut down on affect the entire 737NG fleet. long-exhaust tailpipe fires and not add risk to the short-exhaust models,

JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET Boeing says in its exemption request. Fewer tailpipe fires “would reduce operator unscheduled maintenance, service disruption, and airplane evacu- ations,” Boeing adds. In comments on Boeing’s petition, CFM suggests that tailpipe fires are a far greater safety risk than oil drip- ping on exhaust nozzles. “In 2019, tailpipe fires were the lead- ing cause of powerplant-caused abort- ed takeoffs,” the engine-maker says, adding that there have been “at least” 19 such incidents in the last five years. These fires required a full engine over- haul, at a cost of $4 million, for engines doused in fire-suppression agent. “The proposed drainage has been demonstrated on a comparative buildup in the exhaust plug over time. of fires resulting from oil dripping out CFM56-powered airplane, and the In 2011, CFM introduced the of the newly modified plug was less se- benign nature of leakage into the ex- CFM56-7BE, which required engine- rious than the ATO issues caused by haust nozzle has been demonstrated installation changes to incorporate the original, drainless design. on the short-plug version of the the new powerplant variant. Among In 2018, Boeing went to the FAA 737NG,” CFM adds. the changes was a shorter exhaust and proposed a similar change for Southwest Airlines, which has more configuration, which includes drain the 737NG engines. Among its argu- 737NGs in its fleet than any other op- holes and added heat shielding, and ments was that the long-configuration erator, says the original long-exhaust meets the regulations. The short- CFM56-7 fleet was experiencing tail- configuration has caused “several” exhaust became standard on 737NG pipe fires eight times more often than tailpipe fires. Line No. 3762, which Aviation Week’s the CFM56-5 fleet. The FAA rejected “These events did not generate a Fleet Discovery database shows is a the new plug design as noncompliant flight deck fire warning indication.

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They were typically observed by air- Delta Air Lines, which like sible, and Boeing has developed a Boeing Exemption Request craft located behind the departing Southwest operates 737NGs with service bulletin detailing the process. aircraft or by passengers, flight at- both exhaust configurations, says But the change is considered a major Eyes 737NG Tailpipe Fire Issue tendants and ground personnel,” the the drainage holes “will significantly modification—a costly endeavor with airline tells the FAA. “These events reduce” tailpipe fires on the older specific record-keeping and other Boeing has asked the FAA for an ex- 737-700 built in late 2011 and delivered but offered an alternative. “[P]rovid- could have been easily avoided by plac- airframes, while a single plug for the regulatory requirements. Adding a emption that would allow it to modify a via a lessor to KLM, where it remains ed adequate justification is provided, ing several simple holes in the exhaust entire CFM56-7 fleet “will help to new drain plug to the short-exhaust 737NG engine exhaust part and permit in service. Boeing may wish to consider submit- nozzle (to account for engine position simplify configuration as well as in- configuration is as simple as it sounds. its installation throughout the CFM56- The new exhaust eliminated regu- ting a request for exemption to 14 CFR and wing dihedral) instead of numer- ventory cost.” The FAA is reviewing Boeing’s re- 7 fleet. The upside: The change would latory-compliance issues, but it intro- 25.863 to allow drain holes to be add- ous operational disruptions and unnec- Installing the short-exhaust con- quest. c cut down on aborted takeoffs (ATO) duced other challenges. Among them ed to the long-exhaust plug,” Boeing essary customer inconvenience.” figuration on older 737NGs is pos- —Sean Broderick and other in-service incidents linked was that many 737NG operators now quotes the agency as saying in its reply. to apparent engine fires, and it would had different engine-exhaust configu- Earlier this year, Boeing submit- save operators money. The downside: rations, each requiring its own spare ted its exemption request, includ- The part, and by extension the entire parts. It also did nothing to solve the ing a provision that would allow the International Civil Aviation Organi- 737NG fleet, would not meet FAA long-exhaust configuration problems. new plug to be installed on the entire Pandemic Spotlights zation guidance on protecting cargo flammability-protection rules. The CFM56-5-powered Airbus CFM56-7 fleet. pilots issued May 11, refer to manufac- The complex story dates from 2009, A320ceo-family fleet had a similar “The current restrictions on the turers’ recommendations. when Boeing learned that its CFM56-7 issue with its long-exhaust design. long-exhaust configuration increase Cleaning Protocols While the guidance is not new, “long” exhaust did not meet FAA Part Airbus proposed the drain-hole modi- airline operating costs arising from OEMs say they will work to make it 25.863, which calls for minimizing risk fication, which the European Union additional inventory cost and configu- A renewed focus on cleaning aircraft May cited reports of noncompliance at more readily available. An early item of fluid ignition in components where Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) ac- ration management,” Boeing says. “In interiors has operators paying close 16 U.S. carriers and one in Canada. Most on a new Boeing initiative’s to-do list leaks are possible. The issue involved oil cepted. EASA reasoned that the risk addition, removing this restriction will attention to what works as a disinfec- of the issues concern the frequency and is reaffirming which cleaners and allow greater operator flexibility and tant and, critically, what is permitted thoroughness of aircraft-interior disin- materials are approved for different increased efficiency.” for use on different surfaces. Reports fecting and the materials being used. aircraft surfaces, says Mike Delaney, Boeing’s requested exemption would The new plug would cut down on from the front lines suggest signifi- A common example is pilots being pro- who is heading up the just-launched affect the entire 737NG fleet. long-exhaust tailpipe fires and not cant confusion and, in several cases, vided with hand wipes that are not on Confident Travel Initiative. Boeing add risk to the short-exhaust models, airworthiness issues. the Environmental Protection Agency’s says it will push to harmonize rec-

JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET Boeing says in its exemption request. A pilot for an unnamed airline filed E-list, which tracks products known to ommended product lists as much as Fewer tailpipe fires “would reduce a NASA Aviation Safety Reporting work against the novel coronavirus. possible among manufacturers. The operator unscheduled maintenance, System report in mid-May detailing JAIME REINA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES service disruption, and airplane evacu- an onboard smoke event. “[An] air ations,” Boeing adds. carrier captain reported smelling In comments on Boeing’s petition, a burning smell during cruise,” the CFM suggests that tailpipe fires are report’s summary says. “Post-flight a far greater safety risk than oil drip- maintenance briefing advised the pi- ping on exhaust nozzles. lots that alcohol from wipes may be “In 2019, tailpipe fires were the lead- shorting out wires.” The unnamed air- ing cause of powerplant-caused abort- line reported that the issue had turned ed takeoffs,” the engine-maker says, up on “several” aircraft. adding that there have been “at least” Aircraft manufacturers have pub- 19 such incidents in the last five years. lished procedures on how to clean These fires required a full engine over- aircraft and what products to use for haul, at a cost of $4 million, for engines years. Events such as SARS and the doused in fire-suppression agent. current COVID-19 pandemic have “The proposed drainage has been prompted them to issue reminders demonstrated on a comparative and, as lessons are learned, provide buildup in the exhaust plug over time. of fires resulting from oil dripping out CFM56-powered airplane, and the updates. For example, Boeing has is- In 2011, CFM introduced the of the newly modified plug was less se- benign nature of leakage into the ex- sued several multi-operator messages CFM56-7BE, which required engine- rious than the ATO issues caused by haust nozzle has been demonstrated since the beginning of the year linked installation changes to incorporate the original, drainless design. on the short-plug version of the to aircraft cleaning. The OEM’s lists the new powerplant variant. Among In 2018, Boeing went to the FAA 737NG,” CFM adds. include products that are approved OEMs are issuing guidance on flight deck cleaning best practices. the changes was a shorter exhaust and proposed a similar change for Southwest Airlines, which has more for use and are verified by govern- configuration, which includes drain the 737NG engines. Among its argu- 737NGs in its fleet than any other op- ment health agencies as being effec- The FAA and other regulators are goal, says Delaney, is to give operators holes and added heat shielding, and ments was that the long-configuration erator, says the original long-exhaust tive against the prevailing threat, cur- hesitant to mandate aircraft-cleaning choice while ensuring they do not have meets the regulations. The short- CFM56-7 fleet was experiencing tail- configuration has caused “several” rently the virus that causes COVID-19. protocols, referring instead to health to stock multiple brands of the same exhaust became standard on 737NG pipe fires eight times more often than tailpipe fires. But some operators are still strug- agency guidance, which focuses large- general products to do the same job Line No. 3762, which Aviation Week’s the CFM56-5 fleet. The FAA rejected “These events did not generate a gling to follow procedures. An Air Line ly on aircraft cabins. Instructions on on different manufacturers’ aircraft.c Fleet Discovery database shows is a the new plug design as noncompliant flight deck fire warning indication. Pilots Association report issued in mid- cleaning flight decks, such as in the —Sean Broderick

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ARSA UPDATE Virtual Must Still Relate to Reality

A MODERN WORKDAY INCLUDES COUNTLESS virtual But who was this supposed to help, advise or encourage? communications—emails, video conferences and meet- In other words, who or what was the target audience? ings, text messaging, social media exchanges, you name it. There were no media advisories or broad public an- In today’s environment, the usually busy schedule of nouncements drawing attention to the session. Only those industry events has also become an adventure in remote who already carefully watch FAA communications—or connectivity. Online streaming services are recovering ARSA.org—were even aware of the event. There was no sponsorship and registration revenue lost by the inability clear agenda or information on content or context. The to hold in-person gatherings. Trade associations are be- approach and discussion were too technical and obscure coming adept at holding crisis-focused webinars and live- to hearten a nervous flyer. Nor were there any specifics streaming sessions to enable and even stimulate member regarding compliance obligations or operational issues connection. The Aviation Week Network—no slacker when that could help a curious certificate holder. it comes to reinvention—is producing a slate of webinars None of the information provided generated broader that offers a regular venue for the industry to share and coverage or discussion. An internet search for “FAA Avia- revisit predictions, advice, viewpoints and best practices. tion Safety Town Hall” finds nothing from the usually at- The underlying goal of any communication—in-person, tentive aviation industry trade press. During the event, audio and visual recordings, streaming or otherwise deliv- Manzelli befuddlingly reminded “media viewers” that all ered—is to provide value to a target audience. Adhering to discussions were “on background,” a standard phrase this focus will ensure that the end-user, be it colleagues in meant to prevent reporters from ascribing statements to the same company or an industry-wide audience, is prop- particular speakers. We appreciate the agency’s use of erly served now and in the future. remote technology, but its effort was all virtual and not An example of the need for improvement was on dis- much reality. Remote connectivity must ultimately ensure play May 14. After a week-long delay caused by technical that user involvement at least approximates an in-person, difficulties, the FAA hosted a virtual “Aviation Safety Town on-premises experience. This standard—replicating direct Hall.” Originally, ARSA’s notice about the event included personal experience—will sound familiar to anyone who the promise of an exchange with invited panelists. For rea- has followed the industry’s broader effort to institute rea- sons unknown, when the association’s executive director sonable remote connectivity policy. With care and atten- was informed (48 hr. in advance) that the event would be tion, it can be achieved in a maintenance facility or on a live-streamed on the agency’s YouTube channel, there flight line. were no engagement instructions of any kind. On the same day as the FAA event, ARSA Executive The session included two panels moderated by Ad- Director Sarah MacLeod and I participated in a webinar ministrator Steve Dickson and Flight Standards Executive hosted by our colleagues at Helicopter Association Inter- Director Rick Domingo. At its most condensed, the video national. Similar to Aviation Week’s and other industry of- screen packed in 14 faces: Dickson and Domingo, sup- ferings, these sessions are readily available to the public, ported by FAA Assistant Administrator for Communica- their purpose and participants are known and registration tions Brianna Manzelli, were joined by senior executives is straightforward. In preparation, the production team from air carriers and trade unions including Delta Air Lines, provided regular updates to help us keep our presenta- United Airlines and American Airlines as well as the Na- tions relevant. We delivered our session materials early, ran tional Air Traffic Controllers Association and the Air Line through the technology and prepared to take questions Pilots Association. and interact with participants. The exchanges were pleasant and generally positive, The “new” normal demands that the aviation industry packed with praise for collaboration and responsiveness and the FAA become capable of using virtual reality, par- from both industry and the government, affirmations (and ticularly since it is neither new nor virtual. It is a method of reaffirmations) of the value of safety management systems communicating that can be the same and in some cases and promises to “stick with what we know” in both crisis even better (one cannot attend an industry meeting in management and the eventual return to “normal opera- flip-flops) than an in-person, on-premises experience. c tion.” It was a demonstration of intra-industry back-patting about quick action and coordination and the work being Brett Levanto is vice president of operations with Obadal, done to protect crewmember health and passenger safety. Filler, MacLeod & Klein.

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ARSA UPDATE Ryanair Virtual Must Still Relate to Reality RYANAIR

A MODERN WORKDAY INCLUDES COUNTLESS virtual But who was this supposed to help, advise or encourage? In an interview conducted in two parts, one shortly before the novel communications—emails, video conferences and meet- In other words, who or what was the target audience? coronavirus pandemic and one in the middle of it, Ryanair Director ings, text messaging, social media exchanges, you name it. There were no media advisories or broad public an- of Maintenance and Engineering Karsten Muhlenfeld talks to Inside Ryanair Fact File In today’s environment, the usually busy schedule of nouncements drawing attention to the session. Only those MRO’s James Pozzi about the low-cost carrier’s capacity plans and HISTORY: industry events has also become an adventure in remote who already carefully watch FAA communications—or Ryanair was founded in how it has adjusted maintenance operations given the COVID-19 crisis. 1984 and commenced operations connectivity. Online streaming services are recovering ARSA.org—were even aware of the event. There was no the following year. Under the sponsorship and registration revenue lost by the inability clear agenda or information on content or context. The In late 2019, Ryanair sent some lines good solution, as it guarantees we will leadership of Michael O’Leary, who to hold in-person gatherings. Trade associations are be- approach and discussion were too technical and obscure of maintenance outside Europe to receive an in-depth level of expertise joined Ryanair in 1987 before later coming adept at holding crisis-focused webinars and live- to hearten a nervous flyer. Nor were there any specifics Joramco in the Middle East. Was the and product knowledge. becoming CEO, the airline has streaming sessions to enable and even stimulate member regarding compliance obligations or operational issues decision to look beyond Europe for grown to be one of Europe’s largest connection. The Aviation Week Network—no slacker when that could help a curious certificate holder. some maintenance requirements a What is the ratio of insourced to and operates a route network across it comes to reinvention—is producing a slate of webinars None of the information provided generated broader capacity-driven one? outsourced maintenance? 40 countries in Europe, North Africa that offers a regular venue for the industry to share and coverage or discussion. An internet search for “FAA Avia- and the Middle East. revisit predictions, advice, viewpoints and best practices. tion Safety Town Hall” finds nothing from the usually at- It wasn’t solely a capacity issue. We Currently it stands at around 80% of FLEET: Before the grounding of its The underlying goal of any communication—in-person, tentive aviation industry trade press. During the event, want to operate our capacity in our maintenance being done in-house, with fleet, Ryanair operated 273 Boeing audio and visual recordings, streaming or otherwise deliv- Manzelli befuddlingly reminded “media viewers” that all existing hangars, but if that is fully the remainder of work outsourced to 737-800 aircraft. The wider group utilized, then we will naturally have to third parties. ered—is to provide value to a target audience. Adhering to discussions were “on background,” a standard phrase has nearly 200 more aircraft, with outsource work. In order to do that, we this focus will ensure that the end-user, be it colleagues in meant to prevent reporters from ascribing statements to 120 737-800s operated by work with several companies in Europe November 2019 saw some issues re- the same company or an industry-wide audience, is prop- particular speakers. We appreciate the agency’s use of and 26 Airbus A320-200s operated or close to the continent. Joramco had lated to pickle fork cracks on Boeing by Austrian low-cost carrier . erly served now and in the future. remote technology, but its effort was all virtual and not shown itself to be very efficient and to 737-800 aircraft, which led to three An example of the need for improvement was on dis- much reality. Remote connectivity must ultimately ensure Ryanair is also among the most deliver a very good MRO service; so Ryanair-operated aircraft being high-profile customers for Boeing’s play May 14. After a week-long delay caused by technical that user involvement at least approximates an in-person, we decided to try it as a provider. It’s grounded. Did this issue have a signif- troubled 737 MAX program, with difficulties, the FAA hosted a virtual “Aviation Safety Town on-premises experience. This standard—replicating direct the first year we have worked with icant effect on your fleet operation? firm orders for 135 of the next- Hall.” Originally, ARSA’s notice about the event included personal experience—will sound familiar to anyone who Joramco. We sent two full scheduled generation narrowbody in place and the promise of an exchange with invited panelists. For rea- has followed the industry’s broader effort to institute rea- lines of heavy maintenance, and we Our mechanics identified a small num- options on a further 75. The airline sons unknown, when the association’s executive director sonable remote connectivity policy. With care and atten- are happy with what it has delivered. ber of findings on some aircraft that said earlier this year that the service was informed (48 hr. in advance) that the event would be tion, it can be achieved in a maintenance facility or on a Joramco isn’t the only external sup- needed to be repaired and that was entry of the MAX could be delayed plier we are using, however—we have for Boeing to repair. From that point live-streamed on the agency’s YouTube channel, there flight line. by up to two years, but it remains five other MRO providers undertaking of view, it had no impact on us because were no engagement instructions of any kind. On the same day as the FAA event, ARSA Executive committed to the program. checks for us. We are in a season with it was only a small number of aircraft, The session included two panels moderated by Ad- Director Sarah MacLeod and I participated in a webinar significant scheduled maintenance and occurring during the winter sea- MAINTENANCE CAPABILITIES/LOCATIONS: ministrator Steve Dickson and Flight Standards Executive hosted by our colleagues at Helicopter Association Inter- [March 2020], which is fixed, and son meant we had some spare aircraft The airline has more than 70 line Director Rick Domingo. At its most condensed, the video national. Similar to Aviation Week’s and other industry of- because of the growth of the fleet at available. Nearly all of our heavy fleet maintenance sites, with its four larg- screen packed in 14 faces: Dickson and Domingo, sup- ferings, these sessions are readily available to the public, certain times, we have very specific re- maintenance is done in the winter, so est locations at London Stansted ported by FAA Assistant Administrator for Communica- their purpose and participants are known and registration quirements. That means working with we could afford to send these aircraft to in the UK, Dublin, Milan Bergamo tions Brianna Manzelli, were joined by senior executives is straightforward. In preparation, the production team external companies. Boeing to be repaired and see no impact. in Italy and Madrid. Its heavy main- from air carriers and trade unions including Delta Air Lines, provided regular updates to help us keep our presenta- tenance operation includes four United Airlines and American Airlines as well as the Na- tions relevant. We delivered our session materials early, ran Ryanair has built up some impressive Given growing internal base sites across Europe: Prestwick in Scotland, where it has six lines; tional Air Traffic Controllers Association and the Air Line through the technology and prepared to take questions in-house capabilities on airframes, maintenance requirements, how is Kaunas in Lithuania with two lines; Pilots Association. and interact with participants. but is it looking to add more in areas Ryanair looking to address concerns such as parts repairs? about MRO capacity in its network? Wroclaw in Poland with two lines; The exchanges were pleasant and generally positive, The “new” normal demands that the aviation industry and Seville, Spain, which will expand packed with praise for collaboration and responsiveness and the FAA become capable of using virtual reality, par- We do the major overhaul of the air- Upon reviewing our heavy main- from its current two lines to four from both industry and the government, affirmations (and ticularly since it is neither new nor virtual. It is a method of craft and for some parts—for exam- tenance capacity across sites in lines by 2021. reaffirmations) of the value of safety management systems communicating that can be the same and in some cases ple, an aircraft water boiler—we will Prestwick (UK) with five maintenance MAINTENANCE STAFF: Pre-COVID-19, and promises to “stick with what we know” in both crisis even better (one cannot attend an industry meeting in repair them in-house at one of our bays, Kaunas (Lithuania), Wroclaw c Ryanair had more than 2,000 engineers management and the eventual return to “normal opera- flip-flops) than an in-person, on-premises experience. workshops. But for complicated parts (Poland) and Seville (each with two in total, comprising 1,100 in heavy tion.” It was a demonstration of intra-industry back-patting related to an aircraft’s electronics, we bays), we analyzed where it made maintenance, 800 in line mainte- about quick action and coordination and the work being Brett Levanto is vice president of operations with Obadal, outsource to the OEM, and that won’t sense to grow further and decided that nance and 200 staff in logistics, ma- done to protect crewmember health and passenger safety. Filler, MacLeod & Klein. change. We feel that going to the OEM we will expand the hangar in Seville by terials and continued airworthiness. for these more specialized repairs is a an additional two bays in 2021. We’re

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Airbus, and we have followed their in- RYANAIR structions. The aircraft are flown regu- larly, which will allow us to resume op- erations quite fast once we are able to.

Where is Ryanair parking its aircraft?

We have parked the aircraft at our main bases (located throughout Eu- Ryanair’s maintenance plans have rope) to ensure that we can perform been adjusted due to the novel maintenance efficiently. coronavirus pandemic. What reductions or changes has Ryanair had to make to its also growing capacity in Prestwick tenance operations in the wake of the maintenance teams due to COVID-19? from five bays to six bays this year. COVID-19 outbreak. We’ve already grown there signifi- The COVID-19 pandemic has created cantly on the base maintenance side. Ryanair grounded its entire aircraft an unprecedented crisis for the avia- We’ve also ramped up our line main- fleet after the novel coronavirus tion industry. We are now facing a new tenance network and in the past year pandemic led to global travel environment of lower fares and dis- or so have added new lines at Milan restrictions. How has this affected torted competition due to below-cost Bergamo Airport. your maintenance operations? selling by inefficient airlines propped up by unlawful state aid. Unfortunate- Inside MRO spoke again to Karsten We have chosen to put aircraft in short- ly, all areas of the business have seen Muhlenfeld in May 2020 for an update term storage or in active parking. The staff reductions in order to adjust to on how the airline has adapted its main- procedures are provided by Boeing and this new environment. c

● ● ●

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Airbus, and we have followed their in- RYANAIR VIRTUAL structions. The aircraft are flown regu- larly, which will allow us to resume op- September 22-24, 2020 erations quite fast once we are able to.

Where is Ryanair parking its aircraft? Co-located with We have parked the aircraft at our main bases (located throughout Eu- Ryanair’s maintenance plans have rope) to ensure that we can perform been adjusted due to the novel maintenance efficiently. coronavirus pandemic. What reductions or changes has Ryanair had to make to its also growing capacity in Prestwick tenance operations in the wake of the maintenance teams due to COVID-19? from five bays to six bays this year. COVID-19 outbreak. We’ve already grown there signifi- The COVID-19 pandemic has created cantly on the base maintenance side. Ryanair grounded its entire aircraft an unprecedented crisis for the avia- We’ve also ramped up our line main- fleet after the novel coronavirus tion industry. We are now facing a new tenance network and in the past year pandemic led to global travel environment of lower fares and dis- or so have added new lines at Milan restrictions. How has this affected torted competition due to below-cost Bergamo Airport. your maintenance operations? selling by inefficient airlines propped up by unlawful state aid. Unfortunate- Inside MRO spoke again to Karsten We have chosen to put aircraft in short- ly, all areas of the business have seen Muhlenfeld in May 2020 for an update term storage or in active parking. The staff reductions in order to adjust to on how the airline has adapted its main- procedures are provided by Boeing and this new environment. c

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How lessors keep track of the data generated by their equipment and improvements they would like to see

s airlines prepare to weather a period of lower demand MAA AA in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, analysis As the owners of their equipment, of aircraft-generated data and other technologies that aircraft and engine lessors are clear- ly entitled to all of the operating and promote maintenance efficiencies—and lower costs—will be- maintenance data that it generates. come increasingly important. At the same time, the debate Indeed, accurate maintenance and about who has access to operating and maintenance data is life-cycle records are a crucial part of likely to intensify, with OEMs, MRO providers and airlines all asset management both in the highly technical sphere of spare engine leas- pressing their respective claims. ing and for aircraft lessors since the The value of such data and its ana- lessors fi t into the picture—something value of aircraft as they age is increas- lytics for each of the above parties of an anomaly, given that they own a ingly tied to that of their engines. And has been well-documented, but less large chunk of the global aircraft and within the engines, much of the value discussed is how aircraft and engine spare engine fl eet. is in their life-limited parts (LLP)

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“During a lease, it’s our policy to visit Such information might include our operators once every two years,” reports on exhaust gas termperature says Justin Phelan, vice president of (EGT) margins, fan speeds and fuel marketing for Engine Lease Finance flow, inputs that form a crucial part of OR (ELF), one of the largest independent engine trend and health monitoring. It engine lessors. “We look at the LLP also feeds into predictive maintenance sheet, SBs [service bulletins], ADs models and would allow lessors to con- [airworthiness directives], state of the duct more in-depth asset management engine trends and the last borescope with better projections, says Phelan. [inspection]; and if there was any in- “You may be approaching a shop visit OR tervening maintenance work done, we where you would like to swap out an en- would seek that data to review it.” gine; you may like to avoid a shop visit In most cases, engine lessors have but take back the engine early,” he adds. little trouble seeing maintenance re- And while the lessor can receive all cords since their leases expressly al- the trend-monitoring data at lease- low for it. However, Phelan notes that end, during the lease—when it would problems sometimes arise when the be most useful—airlines can be averse lessor wants to verify, for example, to providing it, citing their right to that no parts manufacturer approval data exclusivity. (PMA) parts or designated engineer- “We’ve been working with airlines on ing representative (DER) repairs were a case-by-case basis to get better access used during the overhaul—as this can to that data, but some are not forthcom- affect asset value and transferability— ing and say, ‘We have the right to quiet How lessors keep track and asks to see the “dirty fingerprint” enjoyment of the engine, and we can’t records for parts taken off and in- always push the button that easily and of the data generated stalled on the engine. give you the data,’” says Phelan. “At the time of the shop visit, the op- Nonetheless, lessors can still glean by their equipment and erator may not have requested a copy key insights from the utilization data of all the dirty-fingerprint records they that is readily available. For example, are entitled to, and at a later date some an engine that suddenly came off wing improvements they MROs will charge to take that informa- would suggest a maintenance event tion out of deep storage,” he says. that the asset owner would want to would like to see Phelan adds that one “large” engine follow up on. MRO provider tried to refuse access “You can do quite a lot that with uti- to such records citing inspector con- lization data—you can make general fidentiality, “even though for the vast assumptions—but you can get very majority you can’t recognize the person bespoke and very granular when you because it is a coded number.” get the precise details,” says Phelan.

OPERATING DATA SHARING AND COLLABORATION Keeping an eye on utilization Unlike maintenance records, operat- Many aftermarket companies now try data can tell a lessor when an ing data is generated on a daily basis to digitize maintenance histories and engine comes off wing. (at least in normal times) and as a parts records, either through entering result presents different access chal- the data into a bespoke platform or ROLLS-ROYCE lenges. For while most lessors are simply by scanning paper documents able to see basic utilization data that into a PDF format. s airlines prepare to weather a period of lower demand MAA AA and, crucially, in the proof of those shows when their equipment is burn- ELF uses the latter method, having in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, analysis As the owners of their equipment, parts’ histories. ing cycles, more detailed information gone largely paperless about five years of aircraft-generated data and other technologies that aircraft and engine lessors are clear- Accordingly, aircraft and engine les- from engine and aircraft sensors is ago in favor of a searchable internal ly entitled to all of the operating and sors usually will conduct periodic on- often not so readily available. database of PDF records than can be promote maintenance efficiencies—and lower costs—will be- maintenance data that it generates. site checks to ensure customers are “Our leases provide that we get a copy accessed via a web portal. Phelan de- come increasingly important. At the same time, the debate Indeed, accurate maintenance and keeping up to date with their mainte- of all data generated by our engines, so scribes the system as “effective and about who has access to operating and maintenance data is life-cycle records are a crucial part of nance records, to inspect maintenance strictly speaking we are entitled to see very user-friendly,” adding that “noth- likely to intensify, with OEMs, MRO providers and airlines all asset management both in the highly planning documents and to coach them the engine trend monitoring . . . . And in ing we have seen on the market has technical sphere of spare engine leas- about return conditions. In addition to theory we would be able to get in on a made our system obsolete yet.” pressing their respective claims. ing and for aircraft lessors since the the physical status of the aircraft, these near real-time basis. But in most cases Similar sentiments are expressed of- The value of such data and its ana- lessors fi t into the picture—something value of aircraft as they age is increas- will also cover and require well-orga- it doesn’t happen like that . . . and that’s ten by other players in the aftermarket, lytics for each of the above parties of an anomaly, given that they own a ingly tied to that of their engines. And nized and complete maintenance and a function of the operator not giving the but while internal systems can work has been well-documented, but less large chunk of the global aircraft and within the engines, much of the value modification histories as well as back- OEM the green light to provide that in- smoothly for their users, the huge va- discussed is how aircraft and engine spare engine fl eet. is in their life-limited parts (LLP) to-birth traceability for valuable LLPs. formation to us,” says Phelan. riety of formats and software used by

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LUFTHANSA TECHNIK different companies creates headaches to anyone with the appropriate per- Engine lessors often struggle to when it comes to sharing data. mission. In fact, lessors comprise a access trend-monitoring data before Gil Krazier, director for engine lease particularly appropriate use case for their leases end. and trade at Israel Aerospace Indus- blockchain, given their need for trusted tries (IAI), told Inside MRO last year data, their need to audit that data and One way to speed up development that “there is still no clear way to share the existence of multiple actors across of blockchain solutions for life-cycle documents in this industry; each les- their networks. tracking is to start on a smaller scale sor, airline and MRO holds its own so- “I do think blockchain has a lot of than the one envisaged by Phelan. For lution for documentation, and it can be merit in it,” says Phelan. “If there is example, GE and a small number of difficult to access these.” one universally accepted system for industry partners are developing a Reconciling data in the format of one the whole industry, that makes things distributed ledger to track the parts platform with that of another can prove very simple.” in its engines. Given the OEM’s mar- to be a considerable administrative Phelan suggests that a big organiza- ket share, this is a significant develop- burden, even though the data itself is tion such as a Tier 1 OEM should take ment, and some industry observers identical. The burden may sometimes the lead in developing such a system, believe there is still value in setting up be enough to push airlines to stick with adding that it would probably need the initially limited ledgers, as they have a particular maintenance provider or support of the International Air Trans- the potential to grow organically. OEM service because of the weight of port Association, the International Civil Phelan also notes that broad accep- accumulated data residing with it and Aviation Organization, all the OEMs and tance has proved to be enough for in- the desire to preserve the integrity of many of the larger airlines. In fact, the dustry collaborations in the past, such that information. However, if that data benefits of blockchain are most evident as the incident/accident clearance is accurate and readily available to all at scale, although adding more partici- statement that affirms that a part has parties, it might reduce barriers to pants may create other difficulties. One not been involved in an accident or sub- entry for other MRO providers —and is gaining the approvals and agreement ject to certain harmful conditions. thereby increase competition. on how to structure and launch the sys- “That’s an example from the past The solution to this problem may tem; another is the technology chal- where experts have got together—it involve blockchain technology and the lenge of dynamic security access, since isn’t accepted by everybody but it’s by provision of a single, immutable source certain parties to a distributed ledger a large swathe; so nothing is perfect, of equipment and parts histories via may not always be entitled to view some but that’s an example of how you might a distributed ledger that is accessible or all of the information in it. do it in the future,” he says. c

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LUFTHANSA TECHNIK different companies creates headaches to anyone with the appropriate per- Engine lessors often struggle to when it comes to sharing data. mission. In fact, lessors comprise a access trend-monitoring data before Gil Krazier, director for engine lease particularly appropriate use case for their leases end. and trade at Israel Aerospace Indus- blockchain, given their need for trusted tries (IAI), told Inside MRO last year data, their need to audit that data and One way to speed up development that “there is still no clear way to share the existence of multiple actors across of blockchain solutions for life-cycle documents in this industry; each les- their networks. tracking is to start on a smaller scale sor, airline and MRO holds its own so- “I do think blockchain has a lot of than the one envisaged by Phelan. For lution for documentation, and it can be merit in it,” says Phelan. “If there is example, GE and a small number of difficult to access these.” one universally accepted system for industry partners are developing a Reconciling data in the format of one the whole industry, that makes things distributed ledger to track the parts platform with that of another can prove very simple.” in its engines. Given the OEM’s mar- to be a considerable administrative Phelan suggests that a big organiza- ket share, this is a significant develop- burden, even though the data itself is tion such as a Tier 1 OEM should take ment, and some industry observers identical. The burden may sometimes the lead in developing such a system, believe there is still value in setting up be enough to push airlines to stick with adding that it would probably need the initially limited ledgers, as they have a particular maintenance provider or support of the International Air Trans- the potential to grow organically. Become a member today. OEM service because of the weight of port Association, the International Civil Phelan also notes that broad accep- accumulated data residing with it and Aviation Organization, all the OEMs and tance has proved to be enough for in- Visit aviationweek.com/AWINinfo to schedule your demo. the desire to preserve the integrity of many of the larger airlines. In fact, the dustry collaborations in the past, such that information. However, if that data benefits of blockchain are most evident as the incident/accident clearance is accurate and readily available to all at scale, although adding more partici- statement that affirms that a part has parties, it might reduce barriers to pants may create other difficulties. One not been involved in an accident or sub- entry for other MRO providers —and is gaining the approvals and agreement ject to certain harmful conditions. thereby increase competition. on how to structure and launch the sys- “That’s an example from the past The solution to this problem may tem; another is the technology chal- where experts have got together—it involve blockchain technology and the lenge of dynamic security access, since isn’t accepted by everybody but it’s by provision of a single, immutable source certain parties to a distributed ledger a large swathe; so nothing is perfect, of equipment and parts histories via may not always be entitled to view some but that’s an example of how you might Or call Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 or a distributed ledger that is accessible or all of the information in it. do it in the future,” he says. c Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106

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somebody on-site to do our technical redeliveries for us, but Pandemic also talking to the airlines,” he says. He attributes this to revenue-starved carriers laying off or furloughing employees in the wake of the novel coronavirus. Complications Crickett shares pessimism across the industry as a whole about the future for some carriers, with airline insolvencies Lessors and lessees adjust to a new and financial distress on the horizon, and he foresees the crisis lasting another 3-4 months at least. “Some airlines normal for the lease-return process are not going to recover,” he says, citing a lack of cash, re- sources or government backing while also believing that James Pozzi London some widebody operators could find conditions tough. The knock-on effects of aircraft order cancellations and the lack ease returns for aircraft and engines have long been of new commitments are expected to affect not only OEMs considered complicated and often costly processes. but to a lesser extent some MRO shops, Crickett believes. L This is due to various factors such as the logistics of “They’ve spent years scaling up and now suddenly have to redelivering the asset to the right location and then having it turn back—that’s a huge knock-on effect,” he says. However, inspected by the multiple parties involved in the handover to Crickett is hopeful that the industry will grasp the opportu- ensure lease terms are met. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 nity for a greater push toward e-signatures post-COVID-19, has restricted the movement of many aerospace assets across which would be a positive change. borders due to global travel shutdowns, these processes have Bill Gibson, a partner at law firm Vedder Price, says become more complicated for lessors and lessees alike. that before the novel coronavirus, both the redelivery of the asset along with the transition of an aircraft or engine to a follow-on operator were complicated procedures. He cites several reasons why this has been the case, ranging from reaching agreement between the lessor and follow-on lessee about the condition of the asset to “more

The novel coronavirus has created more challenges for lessors such as SMBC.

prosaic” complications such as getting the necessary parties to sign documents and having them notarized or legalized as part of e-registration requirements. In this still-evolving environment, Gibson says new approaches will be nec- essary. “If before all of these complica- tions we were having to plan ahead, now we are really having to plan a longer SMBC AERO ENGINE LEASE timeline,” he says. However, even now “The biggest problem that people are experiencing today he is already seeing the impact of COVID-19. “In terms of is the inability to travel and the inability for people who are timing, we are seeing an awful lot of scheduled redeliveries traveling to stop off. Moving aircraft and engines around is move sideways just because of all these difficulties and at difficult, as there are a number of countries that are closed,” a fluctuant time, and that can create a problem.” he says. said Allan Rennie, technical director at asset management Rennie of KV Aviation believes there likely will not be specialist KV Aviation, during Aviation Week’s “Assessing relief in the short term for these complications and sees the Challenges of Lease Returns” webinar in late April. them remaining for some time to come. “The difficulties Aside from redeploying the asset, getting access to the nec- we are seeing now will probably continue for the next 12-18 essary manpower for the lease-return process is proving to be months until every country relaxes some of their travel and challenging. “Trying to get technical consultants into a posi- immigration policies,” he says. With the added possibility of tion to actually do a lease return is also very difficult,” Ren- further measures being imposed—such as screening pas- nie says. “The number of agencies we use are all employing sengers pre-flight—there are concerns that this may further local nationals to do their returns in their hometowns and deter travelers and lead to a further knock-on effect on the countries, so as a result the skillset isn’t readily available, leasing of assets. “There’s going to be another level of com- depending on where the return is actually taking place.” plication getting people from A to B and, equally, getting the Graeme Crickett, chief technology officer of SMBC Aero right people in the right place to do MRO returns, engine Engine Lease, also cites manpower issues emerging during returns and aircraft returns—it’s another level of complica- the downturn. “Our greatest issue isn’t just trying to find tion that we’ll have to work around.” c

MRO16 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Operations O Aircraft somebody on-site to do our technical redeliveries for us, but light enough to be easily handled by Pandemic also talking to the airlines,” he says. He attributes this to Medical Mods two people. The MRO is now in the revenue-starved carriers laying off or furloughing employees concept phase to adapt the PTU with in the wake of the novel coronavirus. What goes into converting passenger and cargo EpiShuttle, a single-patient isolation Complications Crickett shares pessimism across the industry as a whole aircraft for medical missions? and transport system for providing about the future for some carriers, with airline insolvencies intensive care monitoring and treat- Lessors and lessees adjust to a new and financial distress on the horizon, and he foresees the Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago ment. The company also says it has crisis lasting another 3-4 months at least. “Some airlines been in close contact with several air normal for the lease-return process are not going to recover,” he says, citing a lack of cash, re- he novel coronavirus pandemic tensive care, ventilation and disinfec- forces in Europe that are looking for sources or government backing while also believing that has seen passenger air traffic tion. LHT removed passenger seats, medevac mission solutions for crisis James Pozzi London some widebody operators could find conditions tough. The T fall dramatically, but many oper- galleys and luggage bins to provide situations such as COVID-19. knock-on effects of aircraft order cancellations and the lack ators and MROs are adapting to new room for a patient transport isolation Canadian MRO Flying Colours ease returns for aircraft and engines have long been of new commitments are expected to affect not only OEMs demand during the unprecedented unit, which was surrounded by an air- Corp., which has experience convert- considered complicated and often costly processes. but to a lesser extent some MRO shops, Crickett believes. situation by pursuing temporary tight tent with negative pressure as ing aircraft ranging in size from the L This is due to various factors such as the logistics of “They’ve spent years scaling up and now suddenly have to redelivering the asset to the right location and then having it turn back—that’s a huge knock-on effect,” he says. However, inspected by the multiple parties involved in the handover to Crickett is hopeful that the industry will grasp the opportu- ensure lease terms are met. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 nity for a greater push toward e-signatures post-COVID-19,

has restricted the movement of many aerospace assets across which would be a positive change. LUFTHANSA TECHNIK borders due to global travel shutdowns, these processes have Bill Gibson, a partner at law firm Vedder Price, says become more complicated for lessors and lessees alike. that before the novel coronavirus, both the redelivery of the asset along with the transition of an aircraft or engine to a follow-on operator were complicated procedures. He cites several reasons why this has been the case, ranging from reaching agreement between the lessor and follow-on lessee about the condition of the asset to “more

The novel coronavirus has created more challenges for lessors such as SMBC. prosaic” complications such as getting the necessary parties to sign documents and having them notarized or legalized as part of e-registration requirements. In this still-evolving environment, Gibson says new approaches will be nec- essary. “If before all of these complica- tions we were having to plan ahead, now we are really having to plan a longer SMBC AERO ENGINE LEASE timeline,” he says. However, even now modifications for cargo conversions well as two exterior tents to serve as Airtight tents protect the rest of “The biggest problem that people are experiencing today he is already seeing the impact of COVID-19. “In terms of and medical transport. buffers for entering and exiting the the aircraft from contagious patients is the inability to travel and the inability for people who are timing, we are seeing an awful lot of scheduled redeliveries For Lufthansa Technik (LHT), isolation tent. To prevent contami- in LHT’s Airbus A340 evacuation traveling to stop off. Moving aircraft and engines around is move sideways just because of all these difficulties and at which employs approximately 1,000 nation in the event of a sudden pres- aircraft. difficult, as there are a number of countries that are closed,” a fluctuant time, and that can create a problem.” he says. people in its VIP and special mission sure loss, LHT integrated flaps into said Allan Rennie, technical director at asset management Rennie of KV Aviation believes there likely will not be aircraft department, COVID-19 is not the isolation tent structure that could Beechcraft King Air to the Bombar- specialist KV Aviation, during Aviation Week’s “Assessing relief in the short term for these complications and sees the first pandemic to create demand open and safely collect the air. It also dier Q400 into medevac formats, the Challenges of Lease Returns” webinar in late April. them remaining for some time to come. “The difficulties for special aircraft used to transport installed electrical connections and points out that these try to replicate Aside from redeploying the asset, getting access to the nec- we are seeing now will probably continue for the next 12-18 and treat highly contagious patients. a special communication system for on-the-ground environments as closely essary manpower for the lease-return process is proving to be months until every country relaxes some of their travel and The MRO was commissioned by aircraft crew and medical staff. as possible in the air. challenging. “Trying to get technical consultants into a posi- immigration policies,” he says. With the added possibility of Germany’s Federal Foreign Office to An integral part of the design was “Creating the medical space re - tion to actually do a lease return is also very difficult,” Ren- further measures being imposed—such as screening pas- convert an Airbus A340 into a special LHT’s patient transport unit (PTU), quires an intelligent approach, some nie says. “The number of agencies we use are all employing sengers pre-flight—there are concerns that this may further evacuation aircraft during the Ebola which provides the necessary un - ingenuity and, on occasion, a bit of local nationals to do their returns in their hometowns and deter travelers and lead to a further knock-on effect on the epidemic in 2014. derlying infrastructure and medical imagination,” says Sean Gillespie, ex- countries, so as a result the skillset isn’t readily available, leasing of assets. “There’s going to be another level of com- In addition to providing space for equipment needed to transport inten- ecutive vice president for operations at depending on where the return is actually taking place.” plication getting people from A to B and, equally, getting the a patient transport isolation unit, the sive care patients on a large aircraft. Flying Colours. He notes that in addi- Graeme Crickett, chief technology officer of SMBC Aero right people in the right place to do MRO returns, engine A340 required special adaptations to LHT says it can be installed within tion to forming close relationships with Engine Lease, also cites manpower issues emerging during returns and aircraft returns—it’s another level of complica- isolate crew, prevent contamination minutes using seat-track adapters medical equipment suppliers, the MRO the downturn. “Our greatest issue isn’t just trying to find tion that we’ll have to work around.” c and supply power to systems for in- in any aircraft, and it is small and tries to maximize the use of space and

MRO16 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 MRO17 O Aircraft to ensure that the equipment can be such example is a project the MRO safely and securely installed. “Space began for aerial firefighting provider and weight have to be taken into con- in 2018, for which it is sideration, as well as the needs of at- modifying six Q400MR aircraft with tending clinicians so they have the best interchangeable interiors for pas- possible environment to deliver the senger, cargo, combi-transport and best possible care. We need to consider medevac modes. The aircraft remain patient access and egress—you don’t in cargo mode while firefighting op - want to be lifting a critically ill patient erations take place, but the side wall over a set of obstacles,” he explains. fittings and alignment are designed so At the basic level, Gillespie says the custom interiors can be quickly medevac installations incorporate changed as needed. stretcher beds, medical oxygen supply “The design of the interior change- and seating for passengers and medi- out is influenced by the need to be able cal staff. More advanced, dedicated to make the swap-out of the compo- air ambulances are outfitted with full nents within a short period of time,” emergency equipment offering life- explains Gillespie, noting that Fly- support systems for critical medical ing Colours aimed for a design that FLYING COLOURS CORP. emergencies as well as soundproofing could be changed out in 6 hr. or less to reduce noise levels in the cabin. To by a team of 6-8 people. “This was the carry out medical missions and do incorporate specialized components initial request, and we even timed it various operations so they don’t have such as these, Flying Colours also with stopwatches to ensure we met an aircraft on the ground,” says Mi- needs to obtain the appropriate sup- the needs as requested.” chael Knight, vice president for sales plemental type certificates (STC). One company offering a unique and marketing. “This takes experience and can be take on transforming cargo aircraft The company recently began pro- extremely complicated, as the equip- interiors is Knight Aerospace, which duction of its universal patient mod- ment will often incorporate complex designs, manufactures and installs ule and aero-medical bio-containment electrical components, unusual mate- custom modules that can roll on and module (ABCM), which build on the rials that are not generally found in the off and then be locked into an aircraft’s VIP modules it has already been pro- aviation environment or specific items cargo handling system. The San An- ducing for government customers not normally used on aircraft, which tonio-based company describes the worldwide. Typically designed for means we have to do a lot of testing to modules as being similar to “building cargo aircraft such as the Lockheed make sure the materials can be vali- an aircraft inside of an aircraft.” C-130 or Airbus A400M, Knight Aero- dated for aviation use,” Gillespie says. “We’re giving our customers the space’s modules have been produced Flying Colours anticipates that it ability to transform their cargo air- with a heavy focus on elements such will receive more medevac-related re- craft into multi-use aircraft. Having as acoustic and vibrational treatment, quests after COVID-19—particularly an aircraft on the ground is expen- air quality and lighting to make travel- for multipurpose interiors that can sive, so we’re giving them the ability ing inside feel more like a commercial be easily swapped out as needed. One to transport high-level individuals, aircraft—and as close to a hospital setting as possible. “One of the things that we bring to the table that’s very unique is pressurization. We

KNIGHT AEROSPACE can either pressurize our modules for negative pres- sure or positive pressure,

One of Knight Aerospace’s custom interior modules was loaded onto a Lockheed C-130J Super Hercules.

depending on the kinds of patients that we’re trying to transport, so this starts help- ing you in things like conta- gion,” says Bianca Rhodes, president and CEO of Knight Aerospace. “For instance, if you’re transporting a burn

MRO18 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Aircraft to ensure that the equipment can be such example is a project the MRO A Bombardier Challenger 650 mede- ceiling so wires do not become ob - safely and securely installed. “Space began for aerial firefighting provider vac interior Flying Colours completed stacles, and a sink component with and weight have to be taken into con- Conair Group in 2018, for which it is for Swiss Air-Rescue Rega. hot water, refrigeration and a safe for sideration, as well as the needs of at- modifying six Q400MR aircraft with controlled medications. Rhodes says tending clinicians so they have the best interchangeable interiors for pas- gious diseases such as COVID-19, the other unique elements include hori- possible environment to deliver the senger, cargo, combi-transport and concern becomes more about prevent- zontal and vertical railings for equip- best possible care. We need to consider medevac modes. The aircraft remain ing contamination from reaching crew. ment storage and intensive care unit patient access and egress—you don’t in cargo mode while firefighting op - For example, Rhodes notes that dur- (ICU) beds that come out of the wall want to be lifting a critically ill patient erations take place, but the side wall ing the Ebola outbreak, aircraft used to to allow full access to the patient. over a set of obstacles,” he explains. fittings and alignment are designed so transport patients needed to be ground- The medical modules can also be At the basic level, Gillespie says the custom interiors can be quickly ed afterward for decontamination. taken off a cargo aircraft and oper- medevac installations incorporate changed as needed. “Separating the air crew from the ated on the ground once hooked up to stretcher beds, medical oxygen supply “The design of the interior change- patient and the medical crew is huge. a power source, so they could poten- and seating for passengers and medi- out is influenced by the need to be able You can take this structure, roll it in, tially serve as remote clinics or ICUs cal staff. More advanced, dedicated to make the swap-out of the compo- lock it into the aircraft in an hour, fly in areas with less developed medical air ambulances are outfitted with full nents within a short period of time,” your mission, come back, roll it off and facilities. Knight Aerospace expects emergency equipment offering life- explains Gillespie, noting that Fly- you’ve not exposed the aircraft or the the solution to have appeal for both support systems for critical medical ing Colours aimed for a design that FLYING COLOURS CORP. air crew to any of that,” says Rhodes, military and international nongovern- emergencies as well as soundproofing could be changed out in 6 hr. or less noting that the interior can be further ment organizations. to reduce noise levels in the cabin. To by a team of 6-8 people. “This was the carry out medical missions and do patient, you want as few contaminants enhanced to separate medical crew Since the COVID-19 outbreak, incorporate specialized components initial request, and we even timed it various operations so they don’t have in the atmosphere as possible because from patients. Rhodes says Knight Aerospace has such as these, Flying Colours also with stopwatches to ensure we met an aircraft on the ground,” says Mi- infection is probably the biggest issue To help design the medical modules, worked with its initial customer for needs to obtain the appropriate sup- the needs as requested.” chael Knight, vice president for sales for a burn patient.” Knight Aerospace’s engineers studied the universal patient module to expe- plemental type certificates (STC). One company offering a unique and marketing. Conversely, when it comes to conta- operating rooms, ambulances and air dite production and has since received “This takes experience and can be take on transforming cargo aircraft The company recently began pro- medical helicopters to understand several other requests, primarily from extremely complicated, as the equip- interiors is Knight Aerospace, which duction of its universal patient mod- Medical aircraft require electrical the nuances of transporting patients. the air forces of various countries. It ment will often incorporate complex designs, manufactures and installs ule and aero-medical bio-containment connections for specialized equip- The modules feature 30 air changes has also sold its first ABCM, which it electrical components, unusual mate- custom modules that can roll on and module (ABCM), which build on the ment such as life-support systems. an hour, electrical components in the expects to complete soon. c

rials that are not generally found in the off and then be locked into an aircraft’s VIP modules it has already been pro- LUFTHANSA TECHNIK aviation environment or specific items cargo handling system. The San An- ducing for government customers not normally used on aircraft, which tonio-based company describes the worldwide. Typically designed for means we have to do a lot of testing to modules as being similar to “building cargo aircraft such as the Lockheed make sure the materials can be vali- an aircraft inside of an aircraft.” C-130 or Airbus A400M, Knight Aero- dated for aviation use,” Gillespie says. “We’re giving our customers the space’s modules have been produced Flying Colours anticipates that it ability to transform their cargo air- with a heavy focus on elements such will receive more medevac-related re- craft into multi-use aircraft. Having as acoustic and vibrational treatment, quests after COVID-19—particularly an aircraft on the ground is expen- air quality and lighting to make travel- for multipurpose interiors that can sive, so we’re giving them the ability ing inside feel more like a commercial be easily swapped out as needed. One to transport high-level individuals, aircraft—and as close to a hospital setting as possible. “One of the things that we bring to the table that’s very unique is pressurization. We

KNIGHT AEROSPACE can either pressurize our modules for negative pres- sure or positive pressure,

One of Knight Aerospace’s custom interior modules was loaded onto a Lockheed C-130J Super Hercules. depending on the kinds of patients that we’re trying to transport, so this starts help- ing you in things like conta- gion,” says Bianca Rhodes, president and CEO of Knight Aerospace. “For instance, if you’re transporting a burn

MRO18 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 MRO19 MRO Engines Engine MRO Plagued by Low Demand and Rising Retirements Availability of spare engines with life left will save airlines money Sean Broderick Washington he collapse in airline passenger rest of the fleet could be reshaped by ments, we believe airlines and lessors demand quickly found its way a surge in retirements. will have more options regarding en- Tinto the engine-overhaul world, Consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory gine green time, which could initially with inductions dropping 50% or more analyzed the 15,000 aircraft parked limit the uptick in engine MRO activ- in April in some major networks. En- as of early May due to the pandemic- ity,” says Canaccord Genuity analyst gine MRO will recover, but its climb will related capacity pulldown. Its conclu- Ken Herbert. “We continue to view the be complicated by several factors intro- sion? Nearly a third of them, or 4,600 engine aftermarket as one of the stron- duced by the sudden glut of airplanes aircraft, are at least 15 years old and gest over the cycle . . . but the potential that airlines find on their hands. many may never return. But engines availability of used material can have a First, the good news: Even factor- with green time—life-limited parts direct impact on both component and ing in the current-generation Leap and with cycles remaining or acceptable engine OEMs and spare parts sales PW1000 families, most narrowbody exhaust gas temperature margins— into the aftermarket.” engines are still approaching their prime aftermarket-revenue years. Projected Aircraft Retirements, 2020 CFM joint-venture partners Safran Narrowbody Widebody Regional Jet Turboprop Totals and GE note that 57% of the combined CFM56-5B and -7B fleet is less than 10 SCHEDULED 210 89 70 84 453 years old, and 62% of it has had one EARLY 821 443 507 424 2,195 shop visit or none at all. Source: Oliver Wyman As traffic recovers, narrowbodies are candidates to be cycled back into Before the pandemic hit, the af - are expected to lead the way as more the fleet. termarket was pegged to post year-

NO CREDIT NEEDED domestic travel and suppressed long- A similar analysis by Oliver Wyman over-year growth somewhere in the haul demand maintains pressure on identified 2,200 aircraft parked during high single-digits, at least. Aviation widebodies. This bodes well not just the pandemic that are not likely to re- Week’s Commercial Fleet & MRO for CFM but also Pratt & Whitney and turn, with the largest chunk, 37%, be- Forecast had the full market generat- MTU as well, which lean heavily on the ing narrowbodies. Those retirements ing $82.5 billion for 2020, with about V2500s and PW1100G-JMs that share will free up about 4,000 engines with 40% coming from engine work. the Airbus A320ceo and A320neo at least 90 days of life remaining, says Now such estimates vary widely, fleets, respectively, with CFM. Derek Costanza, a partner at the firm. all because the pace of recovery is Most of those engines are on long- Most of the available engines will have impossible to project. Canaccord says term agreements. But if aircraft are 1-2 years of life in them before they a steady rise in activity in the second not flying, that revenue stream slows. need overhauls, but some will have half of the year could limit the full-year GE says its long-term revenue, most of up to four years, Costanza says. The decline to 25%, with the most signifi- it generated by the CFM product line, combined green-time pool is expected cant dip coming during the current could be off by 50% this quarter. Pratt to reduce engine restoration visits 9% quarter. Raytheon says its commercial & Whitney parent Raytheon Technolo- for the remainder of 2020 and 7% next aftermarket business, which includes gies saw engine inductions plummet year—the equivalent of $1.75 billion in Pratt and Collins Aerospace, will be 70% in April after what was a largely engine overhaul expenses. down closer to 50%. routine first quarter. The relatively short-lived relief likely MTU, which arguably has the broad- For current-generation platforms means that green-time usage will not est visibility among manufacturers into that power the most prominent in-pro- eat into MRO revenues for more than a the engine MRO market due to its risk- duction models, recovery will be linked couple of years as demand ramps back sharing stakes across many platforms, to hours and cycles. Operators of Air- up. But its depth will be dictated by is not looking beyond what it can see. bus A220s, A320neos, A350s, Boeing both the number and types of aircraft “You don’t even know exactly how 787s, and—once they are cleared to retired. Another factor will be the im- many shop visits you’re going to have return—the all-Leap-1B-powered minent jump in available used service- in quarter two,” says MTU CEO Reiner 737 MAX fleet, will be turning to their able material, which will lessen reliance Winkler, conveying the challenge of of- old standbys, the engine OEMs, for on the new-parts market. fering even updated full-year guidance. support. But MRO demand from the “If we do in fact see a surge in retire- “It’s far too early to speculate.” c

MRO20 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MRO Engines MRO Workforce Engine MRO Plagued by Low MRO Workforce Trends Study findings reveal impact of Demand and Rising Retirements labor shortage and MRO outlook

Availability of spare engines with life left omared to si monts ao, o odLee o Ann Shay Chicago descrie te ricin enironment will save airlines money he aviation aftermarket was already bracing for a mar- “The most negative groups were PMA (54% expected Sean Broderick Washington ket downturn in March, when the COVID-19Cutting pandemic’s price, worse conditions) and OEM-owned MROs (53% expected impact was starting to spread rapidly aroundpressuring the margins world. worse conditions),” Bank of America’s analysis concluded. T N/A he collapse in airline passenger rest of the fleet could be reshaped by ments, we believe airlines and lessors In a survey conducted by the Aviation Week Network and The MRO industry was feeling pricing pressure at demand quickly found its way a surge in retirements. will have more options regarding en- PricingBank increase of America and from March 6 to April 1, 41% of respondents the time of the survey compared to the previous six Tinto the engine-overhaul world, Consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory gine green time, which could initially improvingsaid their margins business had declined over the prior six months, months—33% were already cutting prices, and 38% pre- with inductions dropping 50% or more analyzed the 15,000 aircraft parked limit the uptick in engine MRO activ- although 37% had not seen a significant change. When asked dicted they would in the next six months. While about half in April in some major networks. En- as of early May due to the pandemic- ity,” says Canaccord Genuity analyst to project business conditions for the next six months, how- were not planning pricing changes at the time of the sur- gine MRO will recover, but its climb will related capacity pulldown. Its conclu- Ken Herbert. “We continue to view the ever, 48% of respondents predicted less work, and only 30% vey compared to six months prior, that number decreases be complicated by several factors intro- sion? Nearly a third of them, or 4,600 engine aftermarket as one of the stron- expected no significant change (see chart at top left below). slightly when considering the rest of the year (see chart at duced by the sudden glut of airplanes aircraft, are at least 15 years old and gest over the cycle . . . but the potential Given the steep decline in airline traffic since the survey lower left below). that airlines find on their hands. many may never return. But engines availability of used material can have a was conducted, those numbers would probably be even When it comes to hiring technical staff, it should not be No change in company First, the good news: Even factor- with green time—life-limited parts direct impact on both component and more pessimistic now. or competitor pricing surprising that the vast majority (77%) had been having a ing in the current-generation Leap and with cycles remaining or acceptable engine OEMs and spare parts sales PW1000 families, most narrowbody exhaust gas temperature margins— into the aftermarket.” In the next six months, What What havehave beenbeen thethe consequencesconsequences engines are still approaching their how would you describe of your difficultiesof your difficulties in filling technical in filling positions? prime aftermarket-revenue years. Projected Aircraft Retirements, 2020 n te net si monts, o od o What have been the consequences the market outlook in your industry? It has taken longer to completetechnical work for customers positions? 60% CFM joint-venture partners Safran Narrowbody Widebody Regional Jet Turboprop Totals descrie te maret otoo in or indstr thanof it would your if the difficulties company was fully instaffed filling technical positions? and GE note that 57% of the combined Increased labor costs due to overtime SCHEDULED 210 89 70 84 453 It has taken longer to complete work for customers 48% CFM56-5B and -7B fleet is less than 10 than it would if forthe currentcompany employees was fully staffed 60% EARLY 821 443 507 424 2,195 Better years old, and 62% of it has had one Increased training costsIncreased to cover labor knowledge costs due gaps to overtime 41% Source: Oliver Wyman 2 for current employees 48% shop visit or none at all. Company has turned down or lost business As traffic recovers, narrowbodies are candidates to be cycled back into Before the pandemic hit, the af - Worse Increased trainingor customercosts to cover opportunities knowledge gaps 25% 41% are expected to lead the way as more the fleet. termarket was pegged to post year- Company has notCompany added new has technicalturned down capabilities or lost business 22% or orexpanded customer ratings opportunities 25% NO CREDIT NEEDED domestic travel and suppressed long- A similar analysis by Oliver Wyman over-year growth somewhere in the haul demand maintains pressure on identified 2,200 aircraft parked during high single-digits, at least. Aviation CompanyCompany has has not decided added againstnew technical or delayed capabilities expanding its current location(s) 11% 22% widebodies. This bodes well not just the pandemic that are not likely to re- Week’s Commercial Fleet & MRO or expanded ratings CompanyCompany has decided has decidedagainst oragainst delayed or delayed8% for CFM but also Pratt & Whitney and turn, with the largest chunk, 37%, be- Forecast had the full market generat- openingexpanding additional its current facilities location(s) 11% MTU as well, which lean heavily on the ing narrowbodies. Those retirements ing $82.5 billion for 2020, with about 0 Company has not sought new approvals or certificates Company has decided against or delayed7% V2500s and PW1100G-JMs that share will free up about 4,000 engines with 40% coming from engine work. from foreign openingaviation additionalauthorities facilities 8% the Airbus A320ceo and A320neo at least 90 days of life remaining, says Now such estimates vary widely, No change CompanyOther has not consequences sought new approvalsnot listed aboveor certificates11%7% fleets, respectively, with CFM. Derek Costanza, a partner at the firm. all because the pace of recovery is from foreign aviation authorities Most of those engines are on long- Most of the available engines will have impossible to project. Canaccord says Other consequences not listed above 11% term agreements. But if aircraft are 1-2 years of life in them before they a steady rise in activity in the second not flying, that revenue stream slows. need overhauls, but some will have half of the year could limit the full-year In the next six months, how would GE says its long-term revenue, most of up to four years, Costanza says. The decline to 25%, with the most signifi- you describe your expectations Has your company had difficulty In the next six months, how would you describe Has your company had difficulty it generated by the CFM product line, combined green-time pool is expected cant dip coming during the current regarding the pricing environment? fillingfilling MROMRO managementmanagement positions? could be off by 50% this quarter. Pratt to reduce engine restoration visits 9% quarter. Raytheon says its commercial your expectations regarding the pricing environment? Has your company had difficulty Don’t know & Whitney parent Raytheon Technolo- for the remainder of 2020 and 7% next aftermarket business, which includes N/A filling MRO management positions? gies saw engine inductions plummet year—the equivalent of $1.75 billion in Pratt and Collins Aerospace, will be 19% 5% Cutting price, Don’t know 70% in April after what was a largely engine overhaul expenses. down closer to 50%. Pricing increase and pressuring margins Yes, but it has not impacted 19% the business significantly routine first quarter. The relatively short-lived relief likely MTU, which arguably has the broad- improving margins 38% 12% 25% Yes, but it has not impacted For current-generation platforms means that green-time usage will not est visibility among manufacturers into the business significantly that power the most prominent in-pro- eat into MRO revenues for more than a the engine MRO market due to its risk- duction models, recovery will be linked couple of years as demand ramps back sharing stakes across many platforms, 25% to hours and cycles. Operators of Air- up. But its depth will be dictated by is not looking beyond what it can see. bus A220s, A320neos, A350s, Boeing both the number and types of aircraft “You don’t even know exactly how No 46% 787s, and—once they are cleared to retired. Another factor will be the im- many shop visits you’re going to have No 46% 10% return—the all-Leap-1B-powered minent jump in available used service- in quarter two,” says MTU CEO Reiner No change in company 45% Yes, and it has impacted 737 MAX fleet, will be turning to their able material, which will lessen reliance Winkler, conveying the challenge of of- or competitor pricing 10%the business significantly old standbys, the engine OEMs, for on the new-parts market. fering even updated full-year guidance. Yes, and it has impacted the business significantly support. But MRO demand from the “If we do in fact see a surge in retire- “It’s far too early to speculate.” c Sources: Aviation Week Network/BoA Global Research

MRO20 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MROWhich statement best reflects your company’s INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 MRO21 workforce plans for the coming year? We plan to add positions and/or hire new employees

45%

44% 12%

We do not plan to change We plan to eliminate positions the size of our workforce and/or lay off employees MRO Workforce

hard time finding the right people, causing work to take The estimated average proportion of respondents’ work- longer and labor costs to be higher (see chart at bottom forces that comprise contract labor is 16.2%. right of preceding page). Respondents say about 15% of current staff will reach About half (46%) of employers were seeing a shift in re- retirement age in the next five years on average. Given that quired skills due to the digitalization of aircraft and tools many companies have offered voluntary leave programs and such as predictive maintenance, and 41% were increasing others have furloughed workers during the pandemic, the training to cover knowledge gaps in general. However, while workforce composition post-pandemic could very well be 54% said potential employees have sufficient skill sets, there different. just aren’t enough of those people to hire. Respondents to the survey came from a mix of the indus- Of the 35% of respondents who said it is difficult to fill try—independent MROs, OEM-owned MROs, airline MROs, MRO management positions, only 10% said that is affecting and parts manufacturers and distributors. About 70% of re- their business significantly. spondents work for companies headquartered in the U.S. c

Are you seeing changes in the required What percentage of your workforce Are you seeingskill sets changes for employees in the required What percentage is contract of labor? your workforce due to skilldigitalization/the sets for employees use of big data? is contract labor? Are you seeing changes in the required due to digitalization/the use of big data? What percentage41% or higher of of workforce your workforce skill sets for employees 31 to 40% is contract labor? due to digitalization/the use of big data? of workforce 41% or 9%higher of workforce 3% Don’t know 21 to 30%31 to 40% 0% of 17% of workforceof workforce 9% 25% workforce 6%3% Don’t know 21 to 30% 0% of 46% Yes 17% of workforce 6% 25% workforce 46% Yes 11 to 20% of workforce 14% 11 to 20% of workforce 14%

No 37% 42% No 37% 1 to 10% 42%of workforce

1 to 10% of workforce What percentage of your staff is entering Does Doesthe laborthe labor pool pool you you are are hiring hiring from What percentage of your staff retirement age in the next five years? have potentialfrom employees have potential with employees sufficient skill sets?What percentageis entering of retirement your staff age is entering Does thewith labor sufficient pool you skill are sets? hiring from 41% orin higher the ofnext staff five years? Yes, and enough retirement age in the next five years? have potential employees with sufficient skill sets? 31 to 40% of staff supply of qualified 4% 41% or higher of staff candidates 6% Yes, and enough 31 to 40% of staff supplythat I canof qualified meet 16% 21 to 30% 4% my hiring needs 6% candidates of staff 12% that I can meet 16% 21 to 30% my hiring needs of staff 12% 0 to 10% 54% 40% of staff 0 to 10% Don’t know 17% 54% 40% of staff Yes, but not Don’t know 17% enough qualified candidatesYes, but not that enoughI can qualifiedmeet 38% 13% mycandidates hiring needs that 11 to 20% I can meet 38% No of staff 13% my hiring needs 11 to 20% of staff No

Sources: Aviation Week Network/BoA Global Research

MRO22 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MRO Workforce MRO Engineered hard time finding the right people, causing work to take The estimated average proportion of respondents’ work- broadly to organizations that haven’t longer and labor costs to be higher (see chart at bottom forces that comprise contract labor is 16.2%. Additive Advantages started down that path, was that the right of preceding page). Respondents say about 15% of current staff will reach technology can be effectively used About half (46%) of employers were seeing a shift in re- retirement age in the next five years on average. Given that The COVID-19 crisis highlights the value of within aerospace to effect rapid change, quired skills due to the digitalization of aircraft and tools many companies have offered voluntary leave programs and additive manufacturing for aerospace and MRO which is exactly what you need when such as predictive maintenance, and 41% were increasing others have furloughed workers during the pandemic, the you’re looking at the challenges an training to cover knowledge gaps in general. However, while workforce composition post-pandemic could very well be Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago MRO environment experiences.” 54% said potential employees have sufficient skill sets, there different. Paula Hay, vice president for ad- just aren’t enough of those people to hire. Respondents to the survey came from a mix of the indus- s aerospace OEMs face produc- application engineer at Fast Radius. vanced manufacturing engineering Of the 35% of respondents who said it is difficult to fill try—independent MROs, OEM-owned MROs, airline MROs, tion cuts, layoffs and liquidity “It’s really offered an interesting al- and technology at Collins Aerospace, MRO management positions, only 10% said that is affecting and parts manufacturers and distributors. About 70% of re- A challenges in the midst of the ternative without the need to convert says additive has demonstrated its their business significantly. spondents work for companies headquartered in the U.S. c novel coronavirus crisis, the suffering the entire manufacturing line over to ability to adapt quickly to the current supply chain may force the industry an entirely new process that it hasn’t environment, but that does not mean it to move more toward innovative solu- been equipped for,” says Schroeder. will be fast-tracked everywhere. Are you seeing changes in the required What percentage of your workforce tions such as additive manufacturing “Additive allows for a much quicker “Because there is so much uncer- Are you seeingskill sets changes for employees in the required What percentage is contract of labor? your workforce (AM) to meet demand for aircraft com- digital alternative to cutting an injec- tainty and slowdown in aviation right due to skilldigitalization/the sets for employees use of big data? is contract labor? ponents and tooling. tion molding tool or setting up a line now, it’s not clear whether or not orga- Are you seeing changes in the required due to digitalization/the use of big data? What percentage41% or higher of of workforce your workforce skill sets for employees 31 to 40% is contract labor? due to digitalization/the use of big data? of workforce 41% or 9%higher of workforce 3% Don’t know 21 to 30%31 to 40% 0% of 17% of workforceof workforce 9% 25% workforce 6%3% Don’t know 21 to 30% 0% of 46% Yes 17% of workforce 6% 25% workforce 46% Yes 11 to 20% of workforce 14% 11 to 20% of workforce 14%

No 37% 42% No 37% 1 to 10% 42%of workforce These face shields were additively manufactured using the Stratasys 1 to 10% of workforce F900 printer in response to What percentage of your staff is entering the COVID-19 crisis. Does Doesthe laborthe labor pool pool you you are are hiring hiring from What percentage of your staff retirement age in the next five years? STRATASYS have potentialfrom employees have potential with employees sufficient skill sets?What percentageis entering of retirement your staff age is entering Does thewith labor sufficient pool you skill are sets? hiring from 41% orin higher the ofnext staff five years? Chicago-based AM specialist Fast for stamping or any other traditional nizations will invest the resources to Yes, and enough retirement age in the next five years? have potential employees with sufficient skill sets? 31 to 40% of staff Radius is finding that additive’s ability manufacturing technology where it just advance additive or reserve them for supply of qualified 4% 41% or higher of staff to ramp up production quickly in un- takes a very long time to ramp that up.” running daily operations,” says Hay. “If candidates 6% Yes, and enough 31 to 40% of staff certain times makes it a valuable piece Scott Sevcik, vice president for the we do see an uptick in new adoptions, supplythat I canof qualified meet 16% 21 to 30% 4% of the supply chain—as evidenced by aerospace business segment at Strata- it will most likely be first in the area of my hiring needs 6% candidates of staff 12% its role in increased production of sys, notes that U.S. aerospace compa- tools and then spread more to parts.” that I can meet 16% 21 to 30% medical equipment such as face shields nies with 3D-printing expertise were Sevcik notes that tooling remains my hiring needs of staff 12% 0 to 10% and parts for ventilators. called upon by the government during a growth area within additive, and 54% 40% of staff “That’s really kind of proven out over the COVID-19 crisis to help produce at Collins—which is in the process of 0 to 10% the past month or so here, and similarly medical equipment for the Federal creating several centers of excellence Don’t know 17% 54% 40% of staff Yes, but not we’re seeing the same situation with Emergency Management Agency, and for additive—development efforts have Don’t know 17% enough qualified other customers such as those in aero- they were able to deliver it within just started around directed-energy deposi- candidatesYes, but not that space or large industry where, especially a few days. tion to both repair damaged parts and enoughI can qualifiedmeet 38% earlier this year when the virus was “An industry that’s often viewed as build large-scale parts and tooling. 13% mycandidates hiring needs that 11 to 20% over in the [Asia-Pacific] region, they stodgy and cumbersome really turned Additive materials themselves are I can meet 38% No of staff were experiencing supply shortages. on a dime, and they could do it because also an area where both Stratasys and 13% my hiring needs 11 to 20% We were able to meet some of those they’ve built up a level of expertise with Fast Radius see innovation happening of staff No demands by converting some of those industrial 3D printing and equipment,” within aerospace. Fast Radius points to products to additive to be able to ensure says Sevcik. “I think what it demon- new polymer materials coming to mar- that they were still able to operate their strated very loudly within those or- ket that are flame-, smoke- and toxic- Sources: Aviation Week Network/BoA Global Research factories,” says Matt Schroeder, senior ganizations, and hopefully even more ity-rated. Stratasys recently released

MRO22 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 MRO23 MRO Engineered

COLLINS AEROSPACE Collins says this additively manufac- trical connector parts for automotive for testing in the initial stages, but tured thrust reverser cascade array uses and is now working with a large then also as either a bridge to tool - is the largest additively manufactured aerospace OEM that manufactures ing—where it makes sense to make structural nacelle part. It will be electrical components for aircraft. the first, say, 10,000 using additive ready for flight tests on business Schroeder says the 3D-printed elec- before converting over to traditional jets later this year. trical connectors can be customized methods. Or, in some cases, we’re ac- tually able to achieve a performance its Antero material, which can “with- improvement by using additive, and, stand oils, fuels and hydrocarbons bet- if it makes sense, to produce using ad- ter than any plastic that you’d typically ditive throughout the entire life of the see in 3D printing,” Sevcik says. program,” he adds. In recent projects with the U.S. Air One innovation from the consumer Force, Stratasys has focused on inno- goods industry where Schroeder says vations such as colored materials and adaptation for aviation uses could also printed textures to reduce post-pro- be possible is the implementation of cessing, meaning parts can go straight lattice technology, which entails engi- from the 3D printer to aircraft. Fast neered structures able to dampen vi- Radius’ Schroeder notes that AM color bration or impact. “A lot of the work technology also enables printing of ele- that we’re doing in those spaces is to ments such as logos, serial numbers and really understand how these struc- QR codes directly onto tools and parts. tures are architected, and how to de- This can enable “true traceability across FAST RADIUS sign these structures is then also be- the entire product life cycle, where Logos, serial numbers and QR codes ing carried over to aerospace, where that QR code can be specific to that can be 3D-printed directly onto tools you can reduce the vibration within a single product, and you can trace [it] and parts for easier traceability. system and you can reduce, in some all the way back to the machine that cases, impact,” he says. [it] was manufactured on.” Innovations based on a customer’s requirements. Reducing vibration is a key focus like this could allow customers to scan “For instance, if there’s a very low- area for the engineering of next-gen- QR codes to quickly order replacement volume application with new electric eration electric vertical-takeoff-and- parts or even have implications for flying aircraft, we can very quickly landing aircraft, so this technology blockchain record-keeping systems. design a connector that’s able to meet could prove useful in their designs. Schroeder believes that some 3D- that application without the need for Aircraft used for medical transport printing innovations taken from other any capital investment or the need to also seek to reduce vibration to create industries—such as automotive or cut a tool, so we can very quickly ramp a hospital-like environment in the air consumer goods—could also have ap- up those connectors in the product de- (see page MRO17), so this could also plications for aerospace. Fast Radius velopment cycles,” he says. be advantageous in today’s COVID-19 has already created 3D-printed elec- “Often we’ll see customers use it environment. c

MRO24 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MRO Engineered

September 1-3, 2020 Dallas, TX

#MROAM | Moving Forward at MRO Americas!

• Industry in Crisis: How to build resiliency in your business in the midst of a global pandemic. COLLINS AEROSPACE Collins says this additively manufac- trical connector parts for automotive for testing in the initial stages, but • Navigating the World of Mergers & Acquisitions and tured thrust reverser cascade array uses and is now working with a large then also as either a bridge to tool - Industry Consolidation is the largest additively manufactured aerospace OEM that manufactures ing—where it makes sense to make structural nacelle part. It will be electrical components for aircraft. the first, say, 10,000 using additive • All Hands on Deck: What can the industry realistically expect in the ready for flight tests on business Schroeder says the 3D-printed elec- before converting over to traditional jets later this year. trical connectors can be customized methods. Or, in some cases, we’re ac- coming days and what role will MROs, OEMs, fuel companies, and tually able to achieve a performance financial institutions play in helping to keep US airlines in business? its Antero material, which can “with- improvement by using additive, and, stand oils, fuels and hydrocarbons bet- if it makes sense, to produce using ad- ter than any plastic that you’d typically ditive throughout the entire life of the Keynote Speakers see in 3D printing,” Sevcik says. program,” he adds. In recent projects with the U.S. Air One innovation from the consumer Force, Stratasys has focused on inno- goods industry where Schroeder says vations such as colored materials and adaptation for aviation uses could also printed textures to reduce post-pro- be possible is the implementation of cessing, meaning parts can go straight lattice technology, which entails engi- from the 3D printer to aircraft. Fast neered structures able to dampen vi- Radius’ Schroeder notes that AM color bration or impact. “A lot of the work technology also enables printing of ele- that we’re doing in those spaces is to ments such as logos, serial numbers and really understand how these struc- QR codes directly onto tools and parts. tures are architected, and how to de- This can enable “true traceability across FAST RADIUS sign these structures is then also be- John Holmes Doug Parker the entire product life cycle, where Logos, serial numbers and QR codes ing carried over to aerospace, where President & CEO CEO that QR code can be specific to that can be 3D-printed directly onto tools you can reduce the vibration within a single product, and you can trace [it] and parts for easier traceability. system and you can reduce, in some AAR American Airlines all the way back to the machine that cases, impact,” he says. [it] was manufactured on.” Innovations based on a customer’s requirements. Reducing vibration is a key focus like this could allow customers to scan “For instance, if there’s a very low- area for the engineering of next-gen- Learn more and register at: QR codes to quickly order replacement volume application with new electric eration electric vertical-takeoff-and- parts or even have implications for flying aircraft, we can very quickly landing aircraft, so this technology mroamericas.aviationweek.com blockchain record-keeping systems. design a connector that’s able to meet could prove useful in their designs. Schroeder believes that some 3D- that application without the need for Aircraft used for medical transport printing innovations taken from other any capital investment or the need to also seek to reduce vibration to create Diamond Sponsors industries—such as automotive or cut a tool, so we can very quickly ramp a hospital-like environment in the air consumer goods—could also have ap- up those connectors in the product de- (see page MRO17), so this could also plications for aerospace. Fast Radius velopment cycles,” he says. be advantageous in today’s COVID-19 has already created 3D-printed elec- “Often we’ll see customers use it environment. c

MRO24 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MRO Aircraft Analysis

GE90 Outlook An overview of airworthiness directives affecting the GE90 JOEPRIESAVAITION.NET

Frank Jackman Washington

allout from the October uncon- a low-speed rejected takeoff. Debris A Thai Airways 777-300ER suffered a tained failure of a GE90-115B en- from the uncontained failure damaged GE90 engine failure last October. F gine on a Thai Airways Boeing the aircraft’s fuselage and the other en- 777-300ER continues. gine. The root cause of the failure is about 340 in parked reserve (idled) or On May 12, the FAA issued another still under investigation. parked status. airworthiness directive (AD) related In the days after the failure, the FAA In 2013, two GE90 engines suf - to the event, this one requiring initial issued an emergency AD and later fol- fered inflight shutdowns in just three and repetitive ultrasonic inspections of lowed up with a final ruling requiring months, resulting in an emergency certain interstage high-pressure tur- removal of the interstage seal from AD in May 2013 for -110B1s and -115Bs bine (HPT) rotor seals installed on GE- eight specific -115B engines. In January, equipped with particular transfer 90- 110B1 and -115B engines. Depending the FAA issued a second emergency gearbox assembly (TGB) radial gear- on the inspection results, the AD also AD (2020-01-55) extending the seal shafts. The assemblies targeted had calls for removal and replacement of removal requirement to select GE90- been manufactured by a GE supplier the HPT rotor seal. 110B1 engines, bringing the number of during a six-month period between The latest AD, effective May 27, also engines involved to 16. September 2012 and March 2013. requires the removal of the interstage In January, GE issued a service bul- The AD prohibited an aircraft from HPT rotor seal at the next engine letin to -115B and -110B1 operators on being operated if more than one in- shop visit. how to do an on-wing ultrasonic inspec- stalled engine had an affected TGB ra- The ADs are targeted at a group of tion at the air holes of the interstage dial gearshaft. The final AD revised the 16 engines that are operated by just HPT rotor seal. The FAA cited the GE applicability of the directive to include two carriers. None of the engines is service bulletin in the latest AD. -76B, -77B, -85B, -90B, -94B and -113B installed on U.S.-registered aircraft, The first GE90-powered 777 com- engine models. The AD also required according to the FAA. pleted its maiden flight in February installing a new TGB radial gearshaft. A spokesman for GE said the compa- 1995. Since entering service, the engine Another series of ADs was issued ny is limited in what it can say because family has accumulated more than 95 following the September 2015 uncon- the AD is part of an ongoing investi- million flight hours and 13 million cy- tained failure of a GE90-85B engine on gation but that the engine-maker is cles, according to the manufacturer’s a British Airways 777-200ER. The en- working closely with its customers data. The -115B has a dispatch reliabili- gine failed and caught fire during the and regulatory authorities to inspect ty rate of 99.97% and an engine-caused takeoff roll on a flight from Las Vegas or replace HPT interstage seals on a inflight shutdown rate of 0.0004, the McCarran International Airport. The “limited population” of -115Bs. OEM says. crew rejected the takeoff, and the air- On Oct. 20, the Thai Airways 777 The Aviation Week Network’s Fleet plane was evacuated on the runway. was taking off from Bangkok on a Discovery database shows that about A subsequent investigation found scheduled flight to when the 200 of the 1,200 Boeing 777 aircraft the engine had failed because of a fa- HPT failed, and the crew conducted fleet are in long-term storage, with tigue crack in the high-pressure com-

MRO26 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MRO Aircraft Analysis MTU AERO ENGINES pressor (HPC) stage 8 disk, according to the NTSB. The board said the HPC stage 8-10 spool failed due to a sus- tained-peak low-cycle fatigue crack, GE90 Outlook but the cause of the crack’s initiation could not be determined. An overview of airworthiness directives affecting the GE90 In January 2016, the FAA issued an AD requiring eddy current or ultra- sonic inspections of the HPC stage 8-10 spool and the removal of failed parts. In April 2017, the FAA issued an AD requiring eddy current inspection of the spool at each shop visit for all of the affected engines and repetitive on-wing eddy current or ultrasonic in- spections for certain affected engines prior to shop visits.

JOEPRIESAVAITION.NET A product quality escape at a GE supplier prompted the FAA to issue The GE90 engine family has accumulated more than 95 million flight hours. AD 2018-20-22 in October 2018 requir- ing the removal and replacement of during the manufacturing process, but Air Lines, have recently announced certain combustion cases from GE90- the welds were not approved by GE or plans to retire their 777s, aftermarket 110B1, -113B and -115B engines. Accord- the FAA. The combustion cases are demand for the GE90 will most likely Frank Jackman Washington ing to the AD, AECC Aero Science and life-limited parts, and the unapproved decrease because of the COVID-19 Technology Co. Ltd. had performed welds reduced the material capability pandemic unless those aircraft are allout from the October uncon- a low-speed rejected takeoff. Debris A Thai Airways 777-300ER suffered a welds on newly manufactured com- of the cases, the FAA said. picked up by other carriers or con- tained failure of a GE90-115B en- from the uncontained failure damaged GE90 engine failure last October. ponents to correct errors introduced Since some airlines, including Delta verted into freighters. c F gine on a Thai Airways Boeing the aircraft’s fuselage and the other en- 777-300ER continues. gine. The root cause of the failure is about 340 in parked reserve (idled) or On May 12, the FAA issued another still under investigation. parked status. airworthiness directive (AD) related In the days after the failure, the FAA In 2013, two GE90 engines suf - to the event, this one requiring initial issued an emergency AD and later fol- fered inflight shutdowns in just three and repetitive ultrasonic inspections of lowed up with a final ruling requiring months, resulting in an emergency MILITARY AVIATION certain interstage high-pressure tur- removal of the interstage seal from AD in May 2013 for -110B1s and -115Bs bine (HPT) rotor seals installed on GE- eight specific -115B engines. In January, equipped with particular transfer LOGISTICS & MAINTENANCE 90- 110B1 and -115B engines. Depending the FAA issued a second emergency gearbox assembly (TGB) radial gear- SYMPOSIUM (MALMS) on the inspection results, the AD also AD (2020-01-55) extending the seal shafts. The assemblies targeted had calls for removal and replacement of removal requirement to select GE90- been manufactured by a GE supplier the HPT rotor seal. 110B1 engines, bringing the number of during a six-month period between The latest AD, effective May 27, also engines involved to 16. September 2012 and March 2013. September 2-3, 2020 • Dallas, TX requires the removal of the interstage In January, GE issued a service bul- The AD prohibited an aircraft from HPT rotor seal at the next engine letin to -115B and -110B1 operators on being operated if more than one in- shop visit. how to do an on-wing ultrasonic inspec- stalled engine had an affected TGB ra- Discuss logistics, maintenance and sustainment solutions The ADs are targeted at a group of tion at the air holes of the interstage dial gearshaft. The final AD revised the with military aviation leaders. 16 engines that are operated by just HPT rotor seal. The FAA cited the GE applicability of the directive to include two carriers. None of the engines is service bulletin in the latest AD. -76B, -77B, -85B, -90B, -94B and -113B Keynote: Brig. Gen. Shirley Franko installed on U.S.-registered aircraft, The first GE90-powered 777 com- engine models. The AD also required Steven Morani Linda Hurry Director Strategic Plans and Policy according to the FAA. pleted its maiden flight in February installing a new TGB radial gearshaft. Assistant Secretary Director of Logistics of Defense for DCS/Logistics, DASN Sustainment, A spokesman for GE said the compa- 1995. Since entering service, the engine Another series of ADs was issued Materiel Readiness, Engineering & Force ASN (RD&A) ny is limited in what it can say because family has accumulated more than 95 following the September 2015 uncon- OSD Protection, USAF the AD is part of an ongoing investi- million flight hours and 13 million cy- tained failure of a GE90-85B engine on gation but that the engine-maker is cles, according to the manufacturer’s a British Airways 777-200ER. The en- Dan Gillian Scott Starrett Mike Kelly working closely with its customers data. The -115B has a dispatch reliabili- gine failed and caught fire during the VP Government President, Director, Sustainment and regulatory authorities to inspect ty rate of 99.97% and an engine-caused takeoff roll on a flight from Las Vegas Services, StandardAero Operations, Advanced Military and Energy or replace HPT interstage seals on a inflight shutdown rate of 0.0004, the McCarran International Airport. The Boeing Global Services Development Programs, Lockheed Martin “limited population” of -115Bs. OEM says. crew rejected the takeoff, and the air- Aeronautics Company On Oct. 20, the Thai Airways 777 The Aviation Week Network’s Fleet plane was evacuated on the runway. was taking off from Bangkok on a Discovery database shows that about A subsequent investigation found scheduled flight to Zurich when the 200 of the 1,200 Boeing 777 aircraft the engine had failed because of a fa- Registration is FREE for active, uniformed service men and women • Co-Located with MRO Americas HPT failed, and the crew conducted fleet are in long-term storage, with tigue crack in the high-pressure com- Register at militarylogistics.aviationweek.com #MALMS |

MRO26 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 MRO27 MRO Remote-Collaboration Tools Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago

1. Hands-Free Guidance 1

Company: RealWear Specifications: RealWear’s HMT Platform for remote collaboration consists of a hands-free, voice-guided headset with a high-definition camera tailored for industrial use cases. In addition to enabling two-way video calling between workers in the field and remote experts, the platform gives workers access to technical manuals and documents, step-by-step instructions and internet of things data visualization. The device is capable of pairing with any Android app that has been optimized for hands-free voice control. RealWear says the HMT Platform is “flying off the shelf” right now, thanks to its recent integration with Microsoft Teams. 10 times faster than current inspec- marketplace.aviationweek.com/ 2 tion methods while reducing safety company/realwear concerns for technicians working at height. The company’s secure cloud 2. Remote Expertise platform enables immediate upload and sharing of inspection data to Company: Testia give customers an objective view of Specifications: Testia Remote Assistance an aircraft’s structural condition as is a browser-based application for real-time, well as access to the digital history expert quality assurance on remote tasks of inspections for potential predictive such as maintenance inspections or repairs. maintenance use cases. Technicians on site are linked to a remote marketplace.aviationweek.com/ expert via live video communication, and company/donecle the expert can then draw on the screen via the tool’s integrated whiteboard feature 4. Long-Distance Problem-Solving or take control of the settings and results from measurement devices or computers Company: Expert Teleportation used on site. The tool is device-agnostic Specifications: Expert Teleportation and can run on smartphones, computers is a hands-free remote-collaboration and wearables, with the ability to store and system that pairs smart glasses with share data via the cloud. 3 software to connect technicians with marketplace.aviationweek.com/ remote experts. Technicians completing company/testia-airbus-company tasks such as inspections can use the system to contact an expert and share 3. Automated Aircraft Inspections what they are seeing to get help in solving problems. Expert Teleportation Company: Donecle is working to integrate new functionality Specifications: Donecle’s drones can into the system, including automated be used for visual inspection of entire reporting using machine learning and aircraft exteriors, combining high-resolution a maintenance application to provide images with automated defect detec- step-by-step instructions. tion and report generation. According marketplace.aviationweek. com/ to Donecle, its solution inspects aircraft 4 company/expert-teleportation

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MRO28 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MRO Remote-Collaboration Tools provide efficiencies for aircraft and Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago engine inspections. Atheer says the platform helps companies deliver on- the-job training faster and more broadly 1. Hands-Free Guidance across multiple locations, providing a 1 20-50% reduction in the cost of training Company: RealWear a distributed workforce. The company Specifications: RealWear’s HMT Platform also says the platform can enable for remote collaboration consists of a better supply chain collaboration for hands-free, voice-guided headset with a the maintenance and repair of aircraft high-definition camera tailored for industrial components. use cases. In addition to enabling two-way marketplace.aviationweek.com/ video calling between workers in the field and company/atheer remote experts, the platform gives workers 5 access to technical manuals and documents, 7. DIY Interactive Video Tutorials step-by-step instructions and internet of things data visualization. The device is 5. Remote Borescope Company: Speach capable of pairing with any Android app that Inspections Specifications: A knowledge-sharing has been optimized for hands-free voice platform from Speach enables MRO control. RealWear says the HMT Platform is Company: Safran technicians in the field to capture “flying off the shelf” right now, thanks to its Specifications: Safran’s interactive digital work instructions from recent integration with Microsoft Teams. 10 times faster than current inspec- B.SIde is a remote borescope- their locations and share them with marketplace.aviationweek.com/ 2 tion methods while reducing safety inspection service to enable team members worldwide. The platform company/realwear concerns for technicians working at both on-the-job training of blends audio, video, text documents, height. The company’s secure cloud technicians working on Safran 6 images and hyperlinks to allow MRO 2. Remote Expertise platform enables immediate upload engines and provide expert technicians to quickly create, share and and sharing of inspection data to advice during borescope engine view tutorials on a tablet or smartphone. Company: Testia give customers an objective view of inspections. Technicians are 7 Speach promotes the platform as Specifications: Testia Remote Assistance an aircraft’s structural condition as able to share live images of beneficial for both onboarding new is a browser-based application for real-time, well as access to the digital history borescope inspections that workers and enabling technicians in any expert quality assurance on remote tasks of inspections for potential predictive both parties can zoom in on and location to share step-by-step video such as maintenance inspections or repairs. maintenance use cases. consult while conducting a face- instructions with colleagues worldwide. Technicians on site are linked to a remote marketplace.aviationweek.com/ to-face video call. The system marketplace.aviationweek.com/ expert via live video communication, and company/donecle comes with accessories to company/speachme the expert can then draw on the screen connect to and share borescope via the tool’s integrated whiteboard feature 4. Long-Distance Problem-Solving images with live experts from 8. Guided Maintenance or take control of the settings and results Safran as well as an interactive from measurement devices or computers Company: Expert Teleportation web platform and iOS app that Company: Librestream used on site. The tool is device-agnostic Specifications: Expert Teleportation features an automated checklist Specifications: Librestream’s Onsight and can run on smartphones, computers is a hands-free remote-collaboration and inspection report generation mobile collaboration platform enables and wearables, with the ability to store and system that pairs smart glasses with tool. technicians to work remotely with share data via the cloud. 3 software to connect technicians with marketplace.aviationweek. experts and customers to perform marketplace.aviationweek.com/ remote experts. Technicians completing com/company/safran guided maintenance tasks, conduct company/testia-airbus-company tasks such as inspections can use the 8 remote inspections, and witness and system to contact an expert and share 6. Digitized Work Instructions certify tests. The augmented reality 3. Automated Aircraft Inspections what they are seeing to get help in platform features software capabilities solving problems. Expert Teleportation Company: Atheer such as analytics, capture of content for Company: Donecle is working to integrate new functionality Specifications: Atheer’s training and audits, data visualization, Specifications: Donecle’s drones can into the system, including automated Augmented Reality Management digital work instructions and more, as be used for visual inspection of entire reporting using machine learning and Platform enables teams to well as optional accessories such as the aircraft exteriors, combining high-resolution a maintenance application to provide collaborate remotely using video Onsight Cube thermal wearable. images with automated defect detec- step-by-step instructions. assistance from remote experts marketplace.aviationweek. com/ tion and report generation. According marketplace.aviationweek. com/ and digitized work instructions, company/librestream- to Donecle, its solution inspects aircraft 4 company/expert-teleportation which the company says can technologies-inc

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MRO28 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 MRO29 MRO Viewpoint By PAUL OLIVER Paul Oliver has been in customer support roles at Airbus since 2002 and has led North American customer service since 2016. AIRBUS fleet. Another told me it is taking full MRO’s New Normal advantage of this period for multiple modifications and tidying up aircraft Finding the way forward from parked to the extent of even being able to “clean the seat tracks with a tooth- to flying aircraft brush” if the crisis continues. Doing maintenance is good, as long as it verything about the coronavirus pandemic has been does not consume too much cash and provided it goes into aircraft that will Edramatic: the speed at which air traffic slowed, the huge eventually fly again. numbers of aircraft that were parked, and the resulting hit After the crisis, the “new normal” to airline revenues. As many as 15,000 aircraft have been put for airlines seems destined to be oper- ating with less liquidity and a smaller into some form of parking, storage or early retirement. workforce, resulting in demand for off-balance-sheet approaches for long- Early in the crisis, the question of nounced very early on that it would term spares and maintenance. The how much parking, storage and retire its entire MD-88 and MD-90 surge in availability of used service- end-of-life maintenance was being fleets. Furthermore, as airline ex- able material that will accompany planned for the fleet gave an indica- ecutives scrambled to decide which early retirements of aircraft will tion of how long airline executives aircraft would be parked and for how create a much higher supply than expected the pandemic to last. Some long, the playing field shifted again demand in that market. were even requesting minimum or with rapidly falling fuel prices. How will MROs fare in this new curtailed work packages, not just The word being used most often environment? Traditionally, in down- because of the unprecedented about aircraft mix these days is “ad- turns the MRO sector is hit as hard volume of aircraft aptation.” Virtually all as the airlines. Line activities dry up being parked but also airlines have declared quickly as routes and frequencies because they were For the MROs they will emerge with are shed, and heavy maintenance looking to “keep their smaller and more is deferred as aircraft requiring planes warm” in able to adapt efficient fleets—with major MRO events are preferen- expectation of a quick quickly, there fewer types and more tially parked. Meanwhile, engines rebound. Airbus fuel-efficient planes. and components are harvested from reacted swiftly by should be rich American Airlines owned-asset aircraft, resulting in adapting the type and recently said it will less work for engine MROs and amount of maintenance pickings as the retire Airbus A330- OEMs, which rely heavily on that needed for various crisis ebbs. 300s, Boeing 757s aftermarket for services business. durations of parking, and 767s, Bombar- For the MROs able to adapt quick- thereby optimizing dier CRJ200s and ly, there should be rich pickings as maintenance costs, and by creating a Embraer 190s. Shortly thereafter, the crisis ebbs. Carriers with ultra- geospatial “Parking Management” Delta declared that its entire fleet of low costs per available seat-mile are app based on its digital Skywise Boeing 777s will not return to service, betting on a fast rebound when it fi- platform. despite recently investing heavily in nally happens. MROs that can match The big question quickly became: new interiors for many of them. It the cost structure of those carriers How long will parking be required? is also a clear signal that long-haul will be best placed to benefit from On the one hand, there is an impera- traffic will be slower to recover. the upturn. Successful will be the tive to preserve cash and ground If there is a small silver lining here, agile MROs that adapt to the need aircraft. On the other hand, airline it is the unexpected opportunity for bundled services incorporating a bosses wanted to limit the time and for bundling maintenance. In many wide spectrum of activities and can effort needed to get the fleet flying cases, abrupt parking meant both add extra value—as well as those again once the worst of the crisis is aircraft and mechanics were col- that act as true partners in helping over. As the true size and scale of this located. This presents a rare chance carriers with their recovery efforts. pandemic continues to unfold, it may to embody mods in one shot without The new normal for MROs will be become evident that some of the early having to compete with network a very different place, with con- decisions made about short-term planners for precious ground time, as solidation likely, highly competitive aircraft parking were premature. is the case during so-called “normal” bundled offerings and greater levels It is also clear that less efficient times. One U.S. operator is working of partnership. The only remaining aircraft will be the first to be retired. at full pace, performing a cabin retro- question is: When will all of this start For example, Delta Air Lines an- fit for a sizable portion of its Airbus to take off again? c

MRO30 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MRO Viewpoint By PAUL OLIVER MRO ADVERTISING SECTION Paul Oliver has been in customer support roles at Airbus since MRO s is an online service that connects ers a sellers in the MRO industry. Become an MRO Links power 2002 and has led North American user by registering at mrolinks.com/register. Registration is FREE, enabling you to nd hundreds of products like the customer service since 2016. ones featured below and to connect with more than 8000 companies. You can create a personalized save list, learn AIRBUS about companies’ specialties, get contact details and request information at mrolinks.com. fleet. Another told me it is taking full To advertise in MRO Links, contact Elae l a or elaelaaoweeom MRO’s New Normal advantage of this period for multiple modifications and tidying up aircraft The 25th Annual MRO Americas Conference and Exhibition will take place September 1-3, Finding the way forward from parked to the extent of even being able to 2020 in Dallas, Texas. The conference and exhibition provide the ultimate opportunity for aviation “clean the seat tracks with a tooth- professionals to gather knowledge, debate the issues, forge new partnerships and cement existing to flying aircraft brush” if the crisis continues. Doing relationships. The worldwide fallout from the novel coronavirus pandemic makes this more important than maintenance is good, as long as it ever before. The -day conference agenda will address what the industry can realistically expect in the coming days and what role MROs, OMs, fuel companies, and fi nancial institutions will play in helping verything about the coronavirus pandemic has been does not consume too much cash and provided it goes into aircraft that will to keep airlines in business. MRO Americas is the largest and most important event for the commercial Edramatic: the speed at which air traffic slowed, the huge eventually fly again. air transport maintenance, repair and overhaul industry. The conference and exhibition is co-located with numbers of aircraft that were parked, and the resulting hit After the crisis, the “new normal” the Military Aviation Logistics & Maintenance Symposium (MALMS) that drives the .S. military to partner with the private sector. The exhibition hall will host the Go Live Theatre and the Aerospace to airline revenues. As many as 15,000 aircraft have been put for airlines seems destined to be oper- ating with less liquidity and a smaller Maintenance Competition- two live action special features that are open to all attendees. or more into some form of parking, storage or early retirement. workforce, resulting in demand for information please visit mroamericas.aviationweek.com. off-balance-sheet approaches for long- Visit aaoweeomees for more information, including complete exhibitor listings and MRO Links participants! Early in the crisis, the question of nounced very early on that it would term spares and maintenance. The how much parking, storage and retire its entire MD-88 and MD-90 surge in availability of used service- 1ST CHOICE AEROSPACE ACME MANUFACTURING COMPANY end-of-life maintenance was being fleets. 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ALI ADVAD MATRIALS AT BRA AVIATI Bii, AERO SERVICES BY TIMKEN CHAPPELL SUPPLY & EQUIPMENT Replace costly machined aluminum parts with HX5 Test Equipment:Pitot-Static, Battery, Loop/Bonding Bii, Aero Services by Timken Biological Waste Water Treatment System

Alpine Advanced Materials Cobra’s wide range of Bearing Inspection, Inc. (Bii) The latest in Bio Wastewater manufactures custom aircraft adapters pair is the Timken team providing Systems. Turns organic engineered, lightweight perfectly with ATEQ’s anti-friction bearing inspection, contaminants (oil, grease, etc) parts made with HX5™ automated ADSE 650 reconditioning, and engineering into carbon dioxide & water. thermoplastic nanocomposite Pitot-Static RVSM tester. services to air carriers, engine Available for either RECYCLE or for aerospace and This compact,competitively overhaul facilities, ground power DISCHARGE operations & offers lower maintenance than any defense applications. HX5 priced unit is completely generation organizations, the other system on the market today, extremely low operating cost components are half the weight of aluminum at the same weatherproof, has built-in pressure/vacuum pumps, aero derivative market, and & simple equipment operation. strength, extremely resistant to corrosion and chemicals, yet programmable leak testing and uses a remote touchscreen military organizations worldwide. HANDLES TOUGH ORGANIC APPLICATIONS: Engine highly coatable. tablet with on-screen help. Overhaul Shops, Tire & Wheel Shop, General Maintenance Avionics/Instruments Facilities www.chappellsupply.com • Cabin Interiors/ alpineadvancedmaterials.com Tools & Equipment • Hangars .ateaviation.com InFlight Entertainment • httpsmarketplace.aviationeek. & Equipment • Ground httpsmarketplace.aviationeek. www.timken.com Manufacturing https://marketplace.aviation- Components • Connectors/ comproductreplacecostl Support Equipment • Airport comproducttesteuipmentpitot Manufacturing & https://marketplace.aviationweek.com/ & Distributing • week.com/product/biological- Fasteners • Parts machinedaluminumpartsh5 Equipment & Services staticbatterloopbonding Distributing product/bii-aero-services-timken-6 Consumables/Supplies waste-water-treatment-system

AVMA AVSIGT AVIATI STWAR CONECSUS AEROSPACE DELTA TECHOPS Cargo & Medevac Solutions for Dash 8 and CRJ Cloud-Based Software for MRO, Surplus, and Jet Engine Recyclers & Precious Metal Refiners Delta TechOps MRO Services Distribution Businesses Our engineering team Conecsus Aerospace is a Delta TechOps is can support requests Built on the Salesforce certified destruction facility a fully integrated, for custom aircraft cloud-based platform, & the largest buyer of scrap global maintenance interiors. Talk to us AvSight allows for endless jet engines in the world. We organization and the about permanent and fl exibility to simplify and source scrap jet engines on largest airline MRO temporary cargo or make your business more an international level & handle in North America. medevac solutions. With effi cient. Entirely paperless, all logistics involved in the Using lean and 6S, locations in Canada and the US, our MRO facilities have the and with automation and mobility built-in, your business can transport of materials. We specialize in the recovery of Gold, Six Sigma principles, space and experience required to complete your package run effi ciently anywhere. Platinum, Palladium & Silver. our ISO 9001 freighter or medevac conversions. certified team is equipped to handle all of your maintenance needs, from engines .Avma.com .avsight.net Asset Management www.conecsusaerospace.com down to components. httpsmarketplace.aviationeek. Technology • Manuals/ httpsmarketplace.aviationeek.com • Environmental https://marketplace.aviationweek. www.deltatechops.com Maintenance, Repair & comproductcargomedevac Repair Documentation/ productcloudbasedsoftaremro Services/Green • com/product/jet-engine-recy- Maintenance, Repair & https://marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Overhaul solutionsdash8andcr Records • Software surplusanddistributionbusinesses Metals clers-precious-metal-refiners Overhaul product/delta-techops-mro-services

BA SYSTMS BALDWI SATY MLIA DUCOMMUN INC. ELBITAMERICA Wings of Change Now’s the Time to Move Up to Baldwin! Premier Aftermarket Solutions Provider A/C Maintenance, Engineering, Technical Solutions

For more than four decades, we’ve Simple to use OEM & Aftermarket Global Tip-to-Tail been a world leader in the design SMS/QMS software, Supplier of Electronic solutions provider and development of fl ight controls, Baldwin provides Systems, Push specializing in engine controls, fl ightdeck MROs and FBOs Button Assemblies, Commercial & Military systems, and cabin systems. implementation, ongoing Lighted Panels, mid-sized single or We are now developing next support, and services. Engine Start Switches, Lightning Diversion Strips and Extruded twin engine turbo generation systems that will enable Contact us and see why Thermoplastics for Cabin Interiors. We are an FAA Licensed prop / fan aircraft all-electric and hybrid-electric tens of thousands of Repair Station – Air Agency Certificate Number D5YR708X. providing sustainment aircraft and engines. users utilize Baldwin! and specialized upgrade / modification solutions. MRO and Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) provider.

Avionics/Instruments • www.ducommun.com Avionics/Instruments • Cabin .baesstems.com Technology • Manuals/ BaldinAviation.com Cabin Interiors/Inflight https://marketplace.avia- www.elbitamerica.com Interiors/InFlight Entertainment • httpsmarketplace.aviationeek. Repair Documentation/ httpsmarketplace.aviationeek.com Entertainment • Electrical • tionweek.com/product/ Avionics/Instruments • https://marketplace.aviationweek. Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul comproductingschange Records • Software productnostimemovebaldin Lighting • Parts premier-aftermarket-solutions-provider Components • Parts com/company/elbitamerica

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EIOTT ANACTRING EOER Elliott Manufacturing Integrated Core Solutions: Airlines, Defense & MRO

Elliott Manufacturing is a global oftware for Hangar, ine, hops, leader in fl exible shaft systems Engineeringompliance and that safely and effi ciently transmit upply hain Management rotational power. ur products can be found in some of the REATER velocity, applied labor effi ciency capacity and control most challenging and rugged REDED turn-around times and quality escapes environments around the world. IMPRED usability, processing and forecasting ince opening our doors in 1, the Elliott product portfolio has evolved to include fl exible shaft assemblies, fl exible couplings, gearboxes, clutches, push-pull control assemblies, and valve actuation systems. Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul • Components Aftermarket Services • • Military Maintenance Consulting Services

ETOSENERG EVANS COOSITES INC Fuel Nozzle and Accessory Repair and Overhaul Maintenance Services of Airframe Components

EthosEnergy Accessories Evans omposites, Inc. repair and omponents provides comprehensive overhaul of fl aps, slats, elevators, testing and overhaul services for aero ailerons, rudders, vertical stabilizers, engine fuel nozzles, injectors, harnesses, horizontal stabilizers, spoilers, leading sensors, and engine components. In and trailing edges, wing tips, trim tabs, support of PW000, PW000, 00, fairings, pylons, doors, access panels, M, , , E0, TPE1, engine inlet and fan cowls. TD-00, pey, and Tay. AA, EAA, AA, A110 approved.

Components • Engines • Hydraulics/Pneumatics • Military Maintenance • Third Party Maintenance Aerospace Materials

EACT ETROOG EERIETA INC AEROSACE Quality Inspection/Reverse Engineering/CT Scanning We specialize in complex/exotic sheet metal parts.

We offer training and EMI forms exotic metals into complex support, contract services, shapes with precision and accuracy. software and hardware We currently hot form and cold form salesrentals.Industrial T, RE, Aluminum, Inconel, Titanium, D scanners and trackers, Hastelloy and Waspaloy with follow and structured light on machining andor laser trimming. systems are some of the We produce major structural and hardware we sellrent. Also, we offer our services on- and off- power-plant components for aircraft site, shortlong range, and contactnon-contact data collection. and spacecraft.

Technology • Hardware Aerospace Materials • • Software Metals

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EIOTT ANACTRING EOER GAA INTERNATIONA INC GARRO SERVICES INC Elliott Manufacturing Integrated Core Solutions: Airlines, Defense & MRO It’s all about the Accessories GAR-MRO Services, Inc.

Elliott Manufacturing is a global oftware for Hangar, ine, hops, alaxy International, Inc, AR-MR ERIE leader in fl exible shaft systems Engineeringompliance and operating since 000, is specializes in testrepair that safely and effi ciently transmit upply hain Management an AA-certifi ed 1 repair overhaul of pneumatic rotational power. ur products station dedicated to the repair valves for oeing, Airbus, Embraer, R. Each technician is fully can be found in some of the REATER velocity, applied labor effi ciency capacity and control and overhaul of mechanical AP certifi ed with over years of civil military component most challenging and rugged REDED turn-around times and quality escapes accessories such as exciters, repair. We look forward to earning your business and delivering environments around the world. IMPRED usability, processing and forecasting transducers, lube pumps, and best value solutions for your test, repair, overhaul requirements. ince opening our doors in 1, AP fuel controls. the Elliott product portfolio has evolved to include fl exible shaft assemblies, fl exible couplings, gearboxes, clutches, push-pull control assemblies, and valve actuation systems. Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul • Maintenance, Repair & Components • Connectors/Fasteners Overhaul • Components Aftermarket Services • • Electrical • Hydraulics/Pneumatics Maintenance, Repair & • Military Maintenance Consulting Services • Lighting Overhaul

ETOSENERG EVANS COOSITES INC GO INAS AREAS SA ERER AIRCRAT SERVICE Fuel Nozzle and Accessory Repair and Overhaul Transforming expertise into MRO service excellence Expert Electrical Engine Harness Repair Service Maintenance Services of Airframe Components ur world-class With over years of wire Maintenance, Repair harness experience, Herber EthosEnergy Accessories Evans omposites, Inc. repair and verhaul facility is Aircraft delivers a superior omponents provides comprehensive overhaul of fl aps, slats, elevators, centered on atin America harness with enhancements testing and overhaul services for aero ailerons, rudders, vertical stabilizers, at Tancredo eves International Airport . enerating over exceeding the quality, reliability engine fuel nozzles, injectors, harnesses, horizontal stabilizers, spoilers, leading 00.000 hours of availability every year. and value of EM products. sensors, and engine components. In and trailing edges, wing tips, trim tabs, ur rapid turn around time will support of PW000, PW000, 00, fairings, pylons, doors, access panels, have your aircraft back in service M, , , E0, TPE1, engine inlet and fan cowls. quickly reducing A’s and TD-00, pey, and Tay. AA, EAA, costly delays. AA, A110 approved. Cabin Interiors/InFlight Components • Engines • Entertainment • Airframes Manufacturing & Hydraulics/Pneumatics • • Components • Landing Distributing • Parts • Military Maintenance • Gear/Wheels/Brakes • Electrical • Engines/ Third Party Maintenance Aerospace Materials Painting/Coatings Engine Systems

EACT ETROOG EERIETA INC AEROSACE AVIATION SERVICES OOS INCORORATED Quality Inspection/Reverse Engineering/CT Scanning We specialize in complex/exotic sheet metal parts. Geared up to land your business! Aircraft Latches & Clamps from Ho-Ho-Kus, Inc.

We offer training and EMI forms exotic metals into complex HM Aviation ervices, is an AA Ho-Ho-us’ DEIED support, contract services, shapes with precision and accuracy. approved repair station operating out and MADE in A software and hardware We currently hot form and cold form of a ,000 sq. ft. facility in pa-ocka, product lines include push salesrentals.Industrial T, RE, Aluminum, Inconel, Titanium, . We’re located miles away from button, hook, pin, tension, D scanners and trackers, Hastelloy and Waspaloy with follow Miami International Airport making us accessible to the world pressure relief latches, and structured light on machining andor laser trimming. in only minutes. The ability to overhaul a wide variety of military, gooseneck hinges, double systems are some of the We produce major structural and regional and commercial aircraft landing gear and accessories action hinges, handles, hardware we sellrent. Also, we offer our services on- and off- power-plant components for aircraft allows us to service the majority of your fl eet. At HM Aviation hold open rods, fairlead site, shortlong range, and contactnon-contact data collection. and spacecraft. ervices, , we have specialized ourselves with narrow body blocks, panel fasteners, programs D, MD0, MD0, 1, , , and quick release clamps. , -10 by incorporating tooling and personnel dedicated to the overhaul of these gears specifi cally. Manufacturing & Distributing • Technology • Hardware Aerospace Materials • Maintenance, Components • Connectors/Fasteners • Software Metals Repair & Overhaul • Consumables/Supplies • Parts

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IDEAGEN INAIR LEGACY AVIONICS SOLUTIONS Quality and Safety Management Software Legacy Avionics Solutions, Fly Today Fly Tomorrow

Ideagen works with IAir Aviation is AA the world’s top aviation EAA ertifi ed and companies, MR has I00101 companies, and their ertifi cation. We invite supply chains to help modernize and centralize their quality and you to see how we can safety management systems into a single software platform. increase your overall ur fl agship product, -Pulse, is used by over 00 aerospace reliability through product companies and Part 1 MRs. specialization, customer communication and a strong commitment to quality. We are your specialist in egacy Avionics and RT based repairs. www.ideagen.com www.inairaviation.com Technology • Manuals/ https://marketplace.aviation- https://marketplace.aviationweek. Repair Documentation/ week.com/product/quality-and- Avionics/Instruments • com/product/legacy-avionics- Records • Software safety-management-software Components • Electrical solutions-fl y-today-fl y-tomorrow

INCERTEC INTERSKY PRECISION INSTRUMENTS, LLC NADCAP Metal Finishing, Electroplating & NDT Component MRO - Its in our DNA

IERTE is a Intersky’s highly skilled ADAP Accredited and experienced plating company surgeons perform providing highly- operations in its parts engineered, specialty hospital everyday to metal plating solutions revive the components you thought were ready for the morgue or for industries and products where precision, knowledge and ER. We also save the lives of various test sets in our calibration experience matter. ertifi cations I 001, I 1001, ER. If your parts need saving, you know where to go A100, ITAR, RoH ompliant, ederal irearms icense.

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INTREPID AEROSPACE INC. KAMATICS RWG Intrepid Aerospace Inc Reliability and lower operating costs

Intrepid Aerospace holds amaticsRW’s dedicated imited Airframe, anding engineering and sales teams ear and Accessory have worked closely with all ratings for oeingAirbus major aircraft manufactur- Regional. pecializing in ers worldwide, and various advanced composites, operators to identify bearing interior, hydraulics, problems, create engineering solutions, and develop pneumatics and electromechanics. We give our customers new applications utilizing our products. the convenience of a one stop shop for all their MR needs. We focus on quality without compromise.

www.kaman.com/engineered www.intrepidaerospaceinc.com Engineering and Design https://marketplace.aviation- Maintenance, https://marketplace.aviationweek. • Parts Manufacturer • week.com/product/reliability- Repair & Overhaul com/product/intrepid-aerospace-inc Parts Distributor and-lower-operating-costs

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IDEAGEN INAIR LEGACY AVIONICS SOLUTIONS AEROSACE IER TOO COAN Quality and Safety Management Software Legacy Avionics Solutions, Fly Today Fly Tomorrow We’re all about the craft. Industry Leader in High Quality Tool Solutions

Ideagen works with IAir Aviation is AA F Aerospace is We design, fabricate and the world’s top aviation EAA ertifi ed and an industry leading maintain the highest quality tool companies, MR has I00101 Maintenance and kits in the industry, facilitating companies, and their ertifi cation. We invite Engineering organization improved organization, supply chains to help modernize and centralize their quality and you to see how we can with facilities in elowna productivity and profi ts while safety management systems into a single software platform. increase your overall BC and Hamilton ON. saving time on the job. Contact ur fl agship product, -Pulse, is used by over 00 aerospace reliability through product Specializing in heavy us today for a custom solution for companies and Part 1 MRs. specialization, customer checks and major your business. communication and a structural and avionic modifi cations, F has the depth of strong commitment to quality. We are your specialist in egacy capability to meet all of your support needs with exceptional Avionics and RT based repairs. quality and on-time performance. www.ideagen.com www.inairaviation.com Technology • Manuals/ https://marketplace.aviation- https://marketplace.aviationweek. Repair Documentation/ week.com/product/quality-and- Avionics/Instruments • com/product/legacy-avionics- Maintenance, Repair & Records • Software safety-management-software Components • Electrical solutions-fl y-today-fl y-tomorrow Overhaul Tools & Equipment

INCERTEC INTERSKY PRECISION INSTRUMENTS, LLC NN EDING AC AEROSACE COR NADCAP Metal Finishing, Electroplating & NDT Component MRO - Its in our DNA Precision Welding, Fabrication, and Machining Complete solutions for your defense requirements

IERTE is a Intersky’s highly skilled Lynn Welding specializes MAC Aerospace specializes in ADAP Accredited and experienced in Fusion & Resistance the support of military aircraft, plating company surgeons perform Welding & Brazing of complex radar and weapon systems. providing highly- operations in its parts Aerospace parts. Lynn Welding Repair and Overhaul services engineered, specialty hospital everyday to is NADCAP & AS 9100D for Hydraulic, Pneumatic, metal plating solutions revive the components you thought were ready for the morgue or approved. Lynn Welding is Electro-mechanical, Electrical, for industries and products where precision, knowledge and ER. We also save the lives of various test sets in our calibration certifi ed to weld for most major Accessory, Instrumentation, experience matter. ertifi cations I 001, I 1001, ER. If your parts need saving, you know where to go Aerospace primes around the world. Lynn Welding also has Communication, Navigation A100, ITAR, RoH ompliant, ederal irearms icense. CNC Milling, Wire EDM and manual machining capabilities. and Radar components.

Cabin Interiors/InFlight www.incertec.com Avionics/Instruments • Entertainment • https://marketplace.aviationweek. Components • Electrical www.InterskyAero.com Airframes • Components • Manufacturing & Distributing Manufacturing & com/product/nadcap-metal- • Lighting • Military https://marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Engines/Engine Systems • • Components • Connectors/ Distributing fi nishing-electroplating-ndt Maintenance product/component-mro-its-our-dna Military Maintenance Fastenes • Parts • Airframes

INTREPID AEROSPACE INC. KAMATICS RWG ETRIC CORORATION OIEADIN AEROSACE Intrepid Aerospace Inc Reliability and lower operating costs Are Your Connectors Switch-Rated? Mobile-Baldwin Aerospace

Intrepid Aerospace holds amaticsRW’s dedicated MELTRIC Switch-Rated The Mobile Chamber of Commerce imited Airframe, anding engineering and sales teams plugs and receptacles and Baldwin County Economic ear and Accessory have worked closely with all combine the safety of a Development Alliance provide ratings for oeingAirbus major aircraft manufactur- disconnect switch with economic development and site Regional. pecializing in ers worldwide, and various the convenience of a selection services to prospective advanced composites, operators to identify bearing plug and receptacle in aerospace companies exploring interior, hydraulics, problems, create engineering solutions, and develop one device. They are UL/ South Alabama for relocation and pneumatics and electromechanics. We give our customers new applications utilizing our products. CSA listed for Motor and Branch Circuit Disconnect Switching. expansion opportunities. The Mobile-Baldwin region is home to the convenience of a one stop shop for all their MR needs. 0-00A, up to 100 hp, Type X/IP69/IP69, built-in lockout/ some of the worlds premier aerospace companies, with industry We focus on quality without compromise. tagout provision. leaders like Airbuss U.S. Final Assembly Line and Collins Aerospace as anchor regional tenants. www.kaman.com/engineered Manufacturing & www.intrepidaerospaceinc.com Engineering and Design https://marketplace.aviation- Distributing • Components • Maintenance, https://marketplace.aviationweek. • Parts Manufacturer • week.com/product/reliability- Electrical • Lighting • MRO Repair & Overhaul com/product/intrepid-aerospace-inc Parts Distributor and-lower-operating-costs Americas Aftermarket Services

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MUNDO-TECH NSL AEROSPACE Aerospace Tube Bending & Oxygen Cleaning NSL PMA Sealants - FAA Approved for OEM Use

Mundo-Tech is a contract PMA ealants manufacturer of abricated cover your fuel tank and Tube Assemblies for Aerospace. fuselage needs with pecializing in Reverse 1, 10R, Engineering, avatory Tubes 0, 0, and Ducts, Tie Rods, Engine Tubes, more. ur products Drain Tubes, xygen Tubes, are approved for use Pneumatic Hydraulic Tubes. on a number of EMs including oeing, Airbus, ombardier, and Embraer. The xygen leaning, Welding, itting. A100 Rev D PMA ealant product line was approved in 00.

www.mundo-tech.com nslaerospace.com Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul https://marketplace.aviation- https://marketplace.aviation- • Engines/Engine Systems • week.com/product/aerospace- Aerospace Materials • Advanced week.com/product/nsl-pma- Hydraulics/Pneumatics tube-bending-oygen-cleaning Materials/Composites • Chemicals sealants-faa-approved-oem-use

ODYSSEY ENINES, LLC OTTO INSTRUMENT SERVICE, INC. REPAIR -LEASE - TEST - INVEST Otto Instrument Service - Complete MRO Services Commercial and Military dyssey Engines, provides MR support, ounded in 1, tto engine leasing, fi eld Instrument ervice, Inc. is a service, engine testing, world leading independent material management MR service provider, earning support and asset management. ur core focus is to repair, buy, a reputation for providing sell, test and lease engines. We take pride in being your one superior overhaul, repair stop shop for securing all your M, and TD solutions. manufacturing services for instrumentation, avionics electrical accessories. tto is a licensed authorized Honeywell ervice enter.

Airframes • Components • www.ottoinstrument.com Engines/Engine Systems • www.odysseyengines.aero https://marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Hydraulics/Pneumatics • https://marketplace.aviationweek. Maintenance, product/otto-instrument-service-complete- Landing Gear/Wheels/Brakes com/product/repair-lease-test-invest Repair & Overhaul mro-services-commercial-and-military

PACIIC AERO TECH PACIIC TOOL Cockpit Window Overhaul Got FOD? We Can Help!

Pacifi c Aero Tech is a premier AA Part oreign bject Debris can 1 Repair tation providing ew and jeopardize the quality of your verhauled ockpit Windows since repairs. oeing tandard 1. In addition to best-in-class frame Tools by Pacifi c Tool remove repairs, we provide EM-level, AA-approved repairoverhaul D from hard to reach full rebuild of transparencies for oeing , , and places and ensure your aircraft. ur transparency rebuild program offers signifi cant aircraft is ready to fl y. Pacifi c savings to both operators and MRs worldwide. As part of Tool stocks 10,000 tandard Tools to keep your work clean as our program, we are actively in the market for “as-removed” and a whistle. ee them all at www.pacifi ctool.com ER units. As a testament to our quality, we are proud to have been awarded the oeing Aviall upplier Excellence Award Tools & Equipment • Test eight straight years. Equipment • Hangars pacifi caerotech.com & Equipment • Ground www.pacifi ctool.com Manufacturing & https://marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Support Equipment • Airport https://marketplace.aviationweek. Distributing product/cockpit-window-overhaul Equipment & Services com/product/got-fod-we-can-help

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MUNDO-TECH NSL AEROSPACE PATRIOT COMPONENTS PERORMANCE PLASTICS Aerospace Tube Bending & Oxygen Cleaning NSL PMA Sealants - FAA Approved for OEM Use PATRIOT COMPONENTS Non-marring Aircraft Maintenance Tools EXCEEDING YOUR EXPECTATIONS Mundo-Tech is a contract PMA ealants Performance Plastics, manufacturer of abricated cover your fuel tank and We are service minded Enduroharp Tube Assemblies for Aerospace. fuselage needs with professionals operating as product line consists of pecializing in Reverse 1, 10R, service industry leaders, nonmetallic tools used Engineering, avatory Tubes 0, 0, and our service product is to remove adhesives, Ducts, Tie Rods, Engine Tubes, more. ur products client centric. We believe in sealants, and coatings Drain Tubes, xygen Tubes, are approved for use supporting our clients needs from aircraft structures. Pneumatic Hydraulic Tubes. on a number of EMs through affordable quality repairs to increase client RI, this for Providing aerospace including oeing, Airbus, ombardier, and Embraer. The the betterment of all involved in todays market. maintenance professionals an adhesive removal tool that holds xygen leaning, Welding, itting. A100 Rev D PMA ealant product line was approved in 00. an effective edge, without damaging composite substructures. www.mundo-tech.com nslaerospace.com www.patriotcomponents.us www.performanceplastics.com Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul https://marketplace.aviation- https://marketplace.aviation- Maintenance, Repair & https://marketplace.aviationweek. Tools & Equipment https://marketplace.avia- • Engines/Engine Systems • week.com/product/aerospace- Aerospace Materials • Advanced week.com/product/nsl-pma- Overhaul • Components • com/product/patriot-components- • Tools • Aerospace tionweek.com/product/ Hydraulics/Pneumatics tube-bending-oygen-cleaning Materials/Composites • Chemicals sealants-faa-approved-oem-use Hydraulics/Pneumatics eceeding-your-epectations Materials non-marring-aircraft-maintenance-tools

ODYSSEY ENINES, LLC OTTO INSTRUMENT SERVICE, INC. R&D DYNAMICS REE INDUSTRIES, INC. REPAIR -LEASE - TEST - INVEST Otto Instrument Service - World Leader in Air Cycle High-Performance Tarps and Covers Complete MRO Services Commercial and Military Machine Technology dyssey Engines, ur custom packaging can provides MR support, ounded in 1, tto RD Dynamics offers the most meet the demands of almost engine leasing, fi eld Instrument ervice, Inc. is a cost effective, low risk solution to any environment or application. service, engine testing, world leading independent your replacement part needs by Product features such as anti- material management MR service provider, earning utilizing our years of engineering static properties, fi re retardancy, support and asset management. ur core focus is to repair, buy, a reputation for providing experience, designing and fabricating heat shrinkability, corrosion sell, test and lease engines. We take pride in being your one superior overhaul, repair for the EM and testing in inhibition or excellent weathering stop shop for securing all your M, and TD solutions. manufacturing services for accordance with the AA’s stringent characteristics are available. instrumentation, avionics electrical accessories. tto is a requirements.We now provide verhaul and Repair capability licensed authorized Honeywell ervice enter. with our 1 Repair acility, Hartford Aero Maintenance. Maintenance, Repair & Airframes • Components • www.ottoinstrument.com www.rddynamics.com Overhaul • Airframes • www.reefi ndustries.com Engines/Engine Systems • www.odysseyengines.aero https://marketplace.aviationweek.com/ https://marketplace.aviationweek. Military Maintenance • https://marketplace.avia- Hydraulics/Pneumatics • https://marketplace.aviationweek. Maintenance, product/otto-instrument-service-complete- Components • Engineering and com/product/world-leader-air- Windows/Transparencies tionweek.com/product/ Landing Gear/Wheels/Brakes com/product/repair-lease-test-invest Repair & Overhaul mro-services-commercial-and-military Design • Hydraulics/Pneumatics cycle-machine-technology • Consumables/Supplies high-performance-tarps-and-covers

PACIIC AERO TECH PACIIC TOOL RELLI TECHNOLOY, INC. ROPER HITNEY/ TENNSMITH/ ECKOLD Cockpit Window Overhaul Got FOD? We Can Help! Relli Technology, Inc. Eckold KF 340 Kraftformer

Pacifi c Aero Tech is a premier AA Part oreign bject Debris can Relli Technology inc - wholesale ecause of the size and range of tools for the 0, it is the 1 Repair tation providing ew and jeopardize the quality of your distributor of Aerospace and Defense perfect all-rounder for any shop. Tooling options for shrinking, verhauled ockpit Windows since repairs. oeing tandard asteners and miscellaneous Aircraft stretching, doming, planishing, fl attening and more. raftformers 1. In addition to best-in-class frame Tools by Pacifi c Tool remove Defense parts. We serve a wide can be used in a variety of functions thanks to their refi ned repairs, we provide EM-level, AA-approved repairoverhaul D from hard to reach range of customers in a variety of design and comprehensive tool options. full rebuild of transparencies for oeing , , and places and ensure your industries including aerospace, aircraft. ur transparency rebuild program offers signifi cant aircraft is ready to fl y. Pacifi c aviation, MR, Defense, and other savings to both operators and MRs worldwide. As part of Tool stocks 10,000 tandard Tools to keep your work clean as commercial concerns. We stock a our program, we are actively in the market for “as-removed” and a whistle. ee them all at www.pacifi ctool.com large variety of inventory including “A”, “M”, “A”, “A”, ER units. As a testament to our quality, we are proud to have “A” and “E” parts. been awarded the oeing Aviall upplier Excellence Award Tools & Equipment • Test eight straight years. Equipment • Hangars Maintenance, Repair & pacifi caerotech.com & Equipment • Ground www.pacifi ctool.com www.relli.com Overhaul • Components • www.roperwhitney.com Manufacturing & https://marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Support Equipment • Airport https://marketplace.aviationweek. https://marketplace.aviationweek. Engines/Engine Systems • https://marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Distributing product/cockpit-window-overhaul Equipment & Services com/product/got-fod-we-can-help Parts com/company/relli-technology-inc Military Maintenance product/eckold-kf--kraftformer

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Learn More at aviationweek.com/speednewsaviationweek.com/speednews of the R-37 missile (AA-X-13), which Since the advent of PL-12, Beijing’s And further developments of PL-15 never entered service. The R-37 is road map of development has expand- may be on the way. Like the U.S., the main armament of the Mikoyan ed. The PL-10, a dogfighting missile, is China has realized the challenge of MiG-31 Foxhound C, which potential- a weapon that experts suggest could squeezing more weaponry into the ly gives it a standoff range to shoot have reach beyond the within-visu- weapon bays of low-observable fight- down support aircraft such as tank- al-range arena similar to that of the ers, with four PL-15s fitting into the ers and airborne early-warning plat- MBDA Advanced Short-Range Air- bay of the J-20. But there are hints forms—while still keeping the aircraft to-Air Missile and the South African that Chinese engineers are develop- out of range of the fighters protecting A-Darter. ing a compressed carriage version their targets. The R-37M would also And there is the long-range PL-XX, of the weapon, notionally called the be used to engage bombers carrying possibly the PL-17 weapon, first PL-16, with the same performance as cruise missiles as well as the projec- glimpsed on a People’s Liberation the PL-15. tiles themselves. Army Air Force J-16 in late 2016, which China is also up-arming fourth-gen- Barrie says recent investments in is essentially a flying telegraph pole eration fighters. Imagery from China Russian air-to-air missile capabilities designed to hold at-risk assets such as may even have been partly spurred tankers and intelligence-gathering air- on by Chinese developments, not to craft (AW&ST, Dec. 5-25, 2016, p. 31). mention concerns that Moscow could Barrie says the PL-XX weapon is lose market share to Chinese air-to-air likely fitted with an active, electron- missiles in the export arena over the ically scanned array (AESA) seeker coming years. and possibly with an IR adjunct to China’s technological edge may overcome any attempt to jam the prompt some nations to undertake weapon with electronic counter - integration of Chinese missiles on measures in the final moments of the their fighters or cause others simply engagement. to purchase Chinese combat aircraft Open-source information also such as the Chengdu JF-17 Thunder, suggests China may be developed in conjunction with Paki- exploring ramjet tech- stan. The JF-17 has already secured nology, which could The PL-15 is equipping orders from Myanmar and . provide China with China’s high-end fighters, During the 1990s, China’s air-to-air a capability similar including the J-10, J-16 and missile inventory consisted of weap- to the MBDA Me- the stealthy J-20 platforms. ons purchased from Russia, or clones of them, and other Western missiles recently showed dual pylon such as the U.S. AIM-9 Sidewinder or rails for air-to-air missiles on the the French Matra Magic. Beijing also Chengdu J-10, increasing the potential secured a large number of the Python 3 weapon carriage of the aircraft. air-to-air missiles from Israel. But Chi- Nevertheless, questions remain na’s purchase of Sukhoi Su-27 Flankers teor. There about how good the Chinese air-to-air from Russia and access to technolo- appear to be missiles really are. gy from Israel likely helped pave multiple design Unlike their U.S. counterparts, the way to produce the first developments in this the Chinese weapons have not seen indigenous Chinese be- area, Barrie suggests. regular use. For example, the U.S. yond-visual-range mis- “The Chinese air-to-air Amraam has 10 kills and thousands sile: the PL-12, also missile road map is not that of test firings to its credit. However, called the SD-10 dissimilar to that of the [Soviet open-source data does not reveal the for the export Union] during the 1980s,” Barrie says. extent of Chinese missile test pro - market. The “All of the Soviet Union’s 1980s [air-to- grams or whether dozens, hundreds missile in TURBOSQUID air missile] projects suffered lengthy or even thousands of rounds are fired its origi- delays or were shelved. The Chinese before a weapon reaches the front line. nal form projects have benefited from two de- Experts argue that it would be fool- may have cades of sustained investment.” hardy to dismiss their capabilities, used some Nonetheless, the PL-15 remains the particularly given the leaps in tech- Russian technology in the seeker, actu- weapon of concern, even with the U.S. nology achieved by Chinese industry ators and data link, Barrie says, while Air Force pushing the development over the last two decades. an upgraded version is introducing of the Lockheed Martin AIM-260 as “These are not just copies,” Barrie more indigenous components. a counter. says. “This is their own work, and they “The PL-12 allowed Chinese in- Experts think the PL-15, like the are proud of these developments.” dustry to get its head around what a PL-17, may have an AESA seeker, al- But are the Chinese weapons on par modern air-to-air missile looked like,” though this has not been confirmed, with the very best Western weapons? Barrie says. “Now, with much of the but Barrie notes the weapon has so far “Probably not quite,” Barrie answers. development in-house, there is very been generally associated only with “But they have closed the gap and will little evidence of external support.” platforms that have AESA . continue to do so.” c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 31 DEFENSE

burn reduction or 10% thrust improvement. Pratt has pre- viously said the GO-2 package reduced fuel consumption by Power Change as much as 20%, with a 15% overall thrust improvement. In 2018, Pratt also proposed another two-step upgrade pack- age tailored for the F-35B variant, increasing the vertical > NEW F-35 PROPULSION-UPGRADE ROAD MAP thrust generated by the Rolls-Royce LiftFan by 2.5-5%. IS IN THE WORKS The GO-1 package is focused on upgraded materials, blade-geometry refinements and coating improvements in PLANNED FUNDING WILL KICK IN BY FISCAL 2023 > the high-pressure compressor, turbine and combustor. Ele- ments of the upgrade derive from technology tested since Steve Trimble Washington and Guy Norris Los Angeles 2013 in the U.S. Navy Fuel Burn Reduction program and from the even earlier Air Force-supported component and he F-35 Joint Program Office is assembling a proposal engine structural-assessment research (Caesar) initiative for dramatic thrust and fuel-efficiency improvements for the F119 engine that preceded the F135. Tto the Lockheed Martin fighter’s propulsion system. The more ambitious GO-2 package leverages variable- The options under review include upgrading the existing cycle advances developed as part of the more recent Air Pratt & Whitney F135 turbofan and revisiting earlier stud- Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Adaptive Engine Tech- ies, potentially to reengine the fighter in the longer term nology Demonstration (AETD) program. Although Pratt with advanced adaptive technology to achieve a step change has not detailed which specific elements of AETD these in range and power. involve, they are likely to include the adaptive fan module Later this year or in 2021, the Joint Program Office (JPO) tested on an F135 in 2017 at the Air Force’s Arnold Engi- will submit the F-35 Propulsion Road Map for 2035, which neering Development Complex in Tennessee as well as at will propose a recommended timeline for consideration by the company’s facilities in Florida. AETD was also the forerunner of the Adaptive Engine Transition Program (AETP), which the AFRL launched in 2016 when it awarded contracts worth $1 billion each to General Electric and Pratt to design, build and test proto- type 45,000-lb.-thrust-class adaptive engines. The new centerline designs exploit technology developed under the earlier Adaptive Versatile New upgrades Engine Technology and AETD, are coming for the F-35 both of which tested ways of propulsion system. dynamically modulating a third stream of air between the en- gine’s core and bypass duct. The variable-cycle concept enables optimized operations at different flight conditions, saving up to 25% in fuel burn and generating up to 10% extra thrust. Designated the GE XA100 and Pratt XA101, the two AETP engines are designed to mature adaptive-cycle tech- nology, which is sized for potential application in the F-35 as well as follow-on sixth-generation fighter designs. The PRATT & WHITNEY initial flight-weight prototypes are expected to be delivered the three U.S. customers as well as international partners, to ground-test teams in 2021. Given typical engine-develop- a JPO spokeswoman confirms to Aviation Week. ment timelines, this would suggest they could be certified The JPO will seek funding for the F-35 propulsion up - and ready to enter production within five years. grade plan in the fiscal 2023 budget, which the Defense The internal F-35 Operational Advisory Group endorsed Department will unveil in early 2022. a propulsion-growth study last fall, the JPO spokeswom- A propulsion upgrade would mark a new phase for the an confirmed for the first time on June 4. As a result, the program. The single-engine F-35’s impressive power capac- Program Management Office (PMO) for the F-35 propulsion ity has been a constant throughout the program’s nearly system began two separate efforts. 20-year history. First, the PMO partnered with Naval Air Systems Com- Although the F135 engine is meeting requirements now, mand’s Advance Design Group to analyze growth projec- the F-35 itself is evolving. The Block 4 follow-on moderniza- tions for the weight and thermal requirements of the F-35 tion program will introduce a major electronics upgrade in air vehicle and mission systems. The working group then Lot 15 aircraft, which are scheduled for delivery in fiscal evaluated potential upgrade options for the F135, including 2023. As Block 4 introduces new sensors and weapons on elements of Pratt’s GO-1 and GO-2 proposals. the aircraft, the overall weight of the aircraft is increasing, In parallel, the F135 PMO also “engaged” with the AETP which creates special problems for the short-takoff-and-ver- program at AFRL, the JPO spokeswoman said. tical-landing F-35B. The PMO now plans to “develop a technology transition Anticipating these growing demands on the propul- road map that could provide an alternative engine option sion system, Pratt has since 2017 proposed a series of up- that capitalizes on the latest technologies that promise both grades—known as Growth Options (GO) 1 and 2—to support high performance and significant gains in fuel efficiency,” Block 4 requirements, with GO-1 offering either a 6% fuel the JPO spokeswoman said. c

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE burn reduction or 10% thrust improvement. Pratt has pre- Vintage Racer - Loitering viously said the GO-2 package reduced fuel consumption by Vintage Racer Concept Suggests Power Change as much as 20%, with a 15% overall thrust improvement. In Weapon System Overview 2018, Pratt also proposed another two-step upgrade pack- Hypersonic Entry for Loitering UAS Hypersonic Ingress age tailored for the F-35B variant, increasing the vertical NEW F-35 PROPULSION-UPGRADE ROAD MAP > thrust generated by the Rolls-Royce LiftFan by 2.5-5%. THE VINTAGE RACER COMPLETED FLIGHT TESTING IN 2019 Ingress trajectory IS IN THE WORKS > The GO-1 package is focused on upgraded materials, Low signature/cross-section blade-geometry refinements and coating improvements in THE PENTAGON TRANSITIONED THE CONCEPT TO THE ARMY PLANNED FUNDING WILL KICK IN BY FISCAL 2023 > > the high-pressure compressor, turbine and combustor. Ele- FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT Time Over Target ments of the upgrade derive from technology tested since Up to 60-90 min. loiter on station Steve Trimble Washington and Guy Norris Los Angeles 2013 in the U.S. Navy Fuel Burn Reduction program and Steve Trimble Washington from the even earlier Air Force-supported component and Multirole he F-35 Joint Program Office is assembling a proposal engine structural-assessment research (Caesar) initiative n inadvertent release indi - paper visible in the picture carries the Engagement and support roles for dramatic thrust and fuel-efficiency improvements for the F119 engine that preceded the F135. cates the U.S. Army is work- headline: “Vintage Racer - Loitering Tto the Lockheed Martin fighter’s propulsion system. The more ambitious GO-2 package leverages variable- Aing on a loitering weapon sys- Weapon System (LWS) Overview.” Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance The options under review include upgrading the existing cycle advances developed as part of the more recent Air tem that can enter a target area at The raw image provides only a Position, navigation and timing Pratt & Whitney F135 turbofan and revisiting earlier stud- Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Adaptive Engine Tech- hypersonic speed, then dispense one grainy glimpse of the main bullet ies, potentially to reengine the fighter in the longer term nology Demonstration (AETD) program. Although Pratt or multiple unmanned aircraft sys- points, including the terms “Hyper- Networked communications in a contested environment with advanced adaptive technology to achieve a step change has not detailed which specific elements of AETD these tems (UAS) to loiter above the area sonic Ingress,” “Survivable,” “Time Modular Payload in range and power. involve, they are likely to include the adaptive fan module for 60-90 min. Over Target,” “Multirole” and “Cost Later this year or in 2021, the Joint Program Office (JPO) tested on an F135 in 2017 at the Air Force’s Arnold Engi- The concept, named Vintage Racer, Imposition Strategy.” Multirole and easily upgraded will submit the F-35 Propulsion Road Map for 2035, which neering Development Complex in Tennessee as well as at previously appeared as only a vague But a processed version of the im- Cost Imposition Strategy will propose a recommended timeline for consideration by the company’s facilities in Florida. reference in Defense Department bud- age, which was enhanced with Adobe Inexpensive to deploy AETD was also the forerunner of the Adaptive Engine U.S. ARMY Photoshop software Transition Program (AETP), which the AFRL launched and obtained by Avi- Target is $100,000-200,000 per vehicle in 2016 when it awarded contracts worth $1 billion each to ation Week, provides General Electric and Pratt to design, build and test proto- more details of the Costly to defeat type 45,000-lb.-thrust-class adaptive engines. The new Vintage Racer con- Source: U.S. Army centerline designs exploit technology developed under cept (see table). the earlier Adaptive Versatile In broad strokes, Inside the target area, the aircraft New upgrades Engine Technology and AETD, Vintage Racer ap- could perform “engagement and sup- are coming for the F-35 both of which tested ways of pears similar to a port roles,” according to the briefing propulsion system. dynamically modulating a third long-canceled pro- paper. The term “engagement,” along stream of air between the en- gram that integrated with LWS nomenclature in the title, gine’s core and bypass duct. The variable-cycle concept 13 Brilliant Anti- Tank suggests the UAS would carry a war- enables optimized operations at different flight conditions, (BAT) submunitions head, allowing the aircraft to function saving up to 25% in fuel burn and generating up to 10% into the Army Tac- like a suicide drone such as the Israel extra thrust. tical Missile System Aerospace Industries Harpy or Aero- Designated the GE XA100 and Pratt XA101, the two (Atacms) Block II, Vironment Switchblade. AETP engines are designed to mature adaptive-cycle tech- a new version of The Vintage Racer’s loitering sys- nology, which is sized for potential application in the F-35 the short-range, tems also could perform nonweap - as well as follow-on sixth-generation fighter designs. The As Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy (far right) received surface-to-surface onized roles, the paper’s text shows. PRATT & WHITNEY initial flight-weight prototypes are expected to be delivered a briefing at the AUSA in the General Atomics booth missile that was The sub-bullets under the “Multirole” the three U.S. customers as well as international partners, to ground-test teams in 2021. Given typical engine-develop- on multiple topics, his hand rested on a briefing canceled in 2003. heading suggest the aircraft could a JPO spokeswoman confirms to Aviation Week. ment timelines, this would suggest they could be certified paper revealing critical new details about the Vintage The Atacms Block II function as an aerial sensor; provide The JPO will seek funding for the F-35 propulsion up - and ready to enter production within five years. Racer concept (see table). was designed to en- accurate positioning, navigation and grade plan in the fiscal 2023 budget, which the Defense The internal F-35 Operational Advisory Group endorsed ter a target area at or timing for other weapons or platforms Department will unveil in early 2022. a propulsion-growth study last fall, the JPO spokeswom- get justification documents released near hypersonic speeds and release the in the target area; or serve as a com- A propulsion upgrade would mark a new phase for the an confirmed for the first time on June 4. As a result, the in February. The “advanced capabil- BAT submunition, which then would munications relay. program. The single-engine F-35’s impressive power capac- Program Management Office (PMO) for the F-35 propulsion ity” funded by a Quick Reaction Fund use acoustic sensors and an onboard The heading for “Cost Imposi- ity has been a constant throughout the program’s nearly system began two separate efforts. is listed in the budget documents as warhead to identify and destroy ar- tion Strategy” offers another clue 20-year history. First, the PMO partnered with Naval Air Systems Com- a “success story” had performed a mored formations. about the type of delivery mecha- Although the F135 engine is meeting requirements now, mand’s Advance Design Group to analyze growth projec- flight test in 2019 and transitioned to Unlike the nonloitering BAT sub- nism involved. The Vintage Racer, the F-35 itself is evolving. The Block 4 follow-on moderniza- tions for the weight and thermal requirements of the F-35 the Army for follow-on development munitions, Vintage Racer releases the paper says, will be “inexpen- tion program will introduce a major electronics upgrade in air vehicle and mission systems. The working group then and prototyping. multiple, winged UAS, according to sive to deploy,” with a target cost of Lot 15 aircraft, which are scheduled for delivery in fiscal evaluated potential upgrade options for the F135, including But the first details about the con- a graphic visible on the enhanced $100,000-200,000 per vehicle. Such 2023. As Block 4 introduces new sensors and weapons on elements of Pratt’s GO-1 and GO-2 proposals. cept emerged when Aviation Week copy of the briefing paper. The UAS a price rules out more exotic delivery the aircraft, the overall weight of the aircraft is increasing, In parallel, the F135 PMO also “engaged” with the AETP spotted a picture posted on Army dispenser—possibly an Atacms-like mechanisms such as a new class of which creates special problems for the short-takoff-and-ver- program at AFRL, the JPO spokeswoman said. Secretary Ryan McCarthy’s Flickr ballistic missile—could deliver the intermediate-range, ground-launched tical-landing F-35B. The PMO now plans to “develop a technology transition page on June 6. The picture shows UAS to the target within 5-8 min. No hypersonic glide vehicles, which are Anticipating these growing demands on the propul- road map that could provide an alternative engine option McCarthy receiving a briefing at the range for Vintage Racer is given, but expected to cost millions of dollars sion system, Pratt has since 2017 proposed a series of up- that capitalizes on the latest technologies that promise both General Atomics exhibit booth during it could travel nearly 500 km (270 nm) each. Instead, the cost seems aligned grades—known as Growth Options (GO) 1 and 2—to support high performance and significant gains in fuel efficiency,” the Associ ation of the U.S. Army con- in 5 min. if the average speed during with a simpler ballistic missile as the Block 4 requirements, with GO-1 offering either a 6% fuel the JPO spokeswoman said. c vention in October 2019. A briefing the flight is Mach 5. UAS dispenser. c

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 33 DEFENSE

Performance Is Expected To Leap include simultaneous multiple-radar operation and various aspects of fre- After Australian Jindalee Upgrade quency management at high spatial resolution. Together, this dramatical- > THE ARRAYS WILL REMAIN, BUT JUST ABOUT ALL THE REST ly improves radar utilization, in effect OF THE RADAR SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED multiplying the radar resource avail- able for mission operations as well > THE PROJECT IS DUE TO BE COMPLETED IN 2028 as providing operators with higher- fidelity information for more effective Bradley Perrett Adelaide, Australia radar management.” Frazer formerly worked on these illed as an upgrade, the work the Phase 5 upgrade completed in that systems at the DSTG. His company is by BAE Systems on Austra- year (AW&ST Sept. 22, 2014, p. 42). providing radar-design expertise, mod- Blia’s three over-the-horizon ra- But the program is hardly restricted eling and test services to the program. dars actually amounts to rebuilding to replacing old system elements with BAE is making some parts at its the sensor system, addressing parts new ones of similar performance. The Adelaide facility, the home of the obso lescence while providing a jump work involves new diagnostics, elec- program and the company’s high- in performance. tronic hardware, software and signal frequency radio expertise. “We are Two years after the program be - processing, the spokesperson says. very focused on the manufacturing gan, the system design review is due BAE is working very closely with the side of things to get cheaper and in June. Preliminary design review will government’s Defense Science and faster,” BAE says. The company mo- bilized for the program before the gov- ernment signed the contract. A receiving array of one of the three Jindalee BAE says higher performance, in- radars in the Australian Outback. cluding lower noise, is required from new parts. The work will improve diag- nostics as well: The radars will be bet- ter able to monitor their condition, and this will include automatic responses to failures. The radars currently surveil their fields of view by shifting from one patch of surveilled area to another; each patch is called a tile. After the up- grade, the radars will be able to watch multiple tiles simultaneously. Power BAE SYSTEMS management, currently manual, will follow in 2021, and detail design review Technology Group (DSTG), the origi- become automatic. about 12 months later, a BAE spokes- nator of much of the know-how behind The interface with operators will person says. Program completion is the system. be better, becoming more instinctive- scheduled for 2028. According to BAE, everything in ly usable and needing less training. The upgrade is called Joint Project the radars will be replaced except for Monitoring of the ionosphere (called 2025 Phase 6, the name reflecting the their huge transmission and reception sounding) will be improved, along with utility of the radars’ data to all three arrays and maybe the high-power am- signal processing. There will be a leap services, even though the Royal Aus- plifiers. BAE and Lockheed Martin, in resolution, the precision with which tralian Air Force (RAAF) operates which formerly supported two of the targets are located and tracked. them. Together, they are formally radars, are studying whether to pro- Better sensitivity can be assumed, called the Jindalee Over-the-Horizon pose replacement of the amplifiers, even though BAE will not discuss the Radar Network. too, since they present some difficulty matter beyond saying the upgraded The RAAF says the sensors can in maintenance. New amplifiers may radars will be able to deal with small, surveil the air and surface as far as be much more powerful, but their full low-flying targets. Generally declin- 3,000 km (1,900 mi.) away. They bounce power may not be needed. ing to discuss the specifics of perfor- high-frequency radio off the ionosphere, The work also will introduce a mance, BAE would not depart from so coverage starts at the 1,000-km technology called common aper - the long-standing RAAF description range, which is why the radars have ture receiver array (CARA), says of minimum target size: a BAE Hawk been built deep in the Outback. There Gordon Frazer, CEO of subcontrac- trainer. A key, unanswered question is a good reason to think they can tor FrazerLab. “Technically very de- is whether the sensors will be able to see farther than 3,000 km because manding and at the forefront of the detect and track cruise missiles. Canberra has never bothered to build innovation in Phase 6, CARA expands There is potential to extend the extra radars on the coast. the functions that can be performed daily time period for operation, the In 2014, the defense department de- concurrently by the receiver sys- spokesperson says. Operation of ra- scribed Phase 6 as basically an effort to tem,” Frazer says in a written reply dars of this kind is severely limited at address parts obsolescence, following to Aviation Week questions. “These night, when the ionosphere weakens. c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Performance Is Expected To Leap include simultaneous multiple-radar U.S. Military Turns their routers instead of using wireless home internet, operation and various aspects of fre- which reduced latency and resulted in a more streamlined, After Australian Jindalee Upgrade quency management at high spatial to Remote Pilot Training less glitchy process. resolution. Together, this dramatical- Meanwhile, the Army was tackling similar challenges at > THE ARRAYS WILL REMAIN, BUT JUST ABOUT ALL THE REST ly improves radar utilization, in effect > ARMY PAUSES TO ASSESS TRAINING OPTIONS Fort Rucker in Dale County, Alabama, where the service OF THE RADAR SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED multiplying the radar resource avail- produces pilots to fly the Boeing AH-64 Apache and CH-47 able for mission operations as well > AIR FORCE AND NAVY IMMEDIATELY PIVOT Chinook and Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk. In addition to > THE PROJECT IS DUE TO BE COMPLETED IN 2028 as providing operators with higher- TO REMOTE INSTRUCTION training its own pilots at Fort Rucker, the service also as- fidelity information for more effective sists with the training of foreign military aviators from as Bradley Perrett Adelaide, Australia radar management.” Lee Hudson Washington many as 47 countries annually at the base. Frazer formerly worked on these The Army established a virtual instructor’s course so that illed as an upgrade, the work the Phase 5 upgrade completed in that systems at the DSTG. His company is nce the global coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S., the instructor pilots could learn how to teach using a digital by BAE Systems on Austra- year (AW&ST Sept. 22, 2014, p. 42). providing radar-design expertise, mod- the military moved to ramp up remote pilot training platform, says Maj. Gen. David Francis, U.S. Army Aviation Blia’s three over-the-horizon ra- But the program is hardly restricted eling and test services to the program. Ooptions. But it is unclear if the trend will continue Center of Excellence and Fort Rucker commanding general. dars actually amounts to rebuilding to replacing old system elements with BAE is making some parts at its after the contagion passes. “COVID-19 has enabled us to really take a look at ourselves the sensor system, addressing parts new ones of similar performance. The Adelaide facility, the home of the Before COVID-19, the Air Force was developing immersive and how we’re delivering training,” he says. Francis envisions obso lescence while providing a jump work involves new diagnostics, elec- program and the company’s high- training devices that would help instruct students remote- a blend of in-person and virtual training once the crisis passes. in performance. tronic hardware, software and signal frequency radio expertise. “We are ly as part of Air Education and Training Command’s Pilot As the pandemic took hold, the Navy, too, set up remote Two years after the program be - processing, the spokesperson says. very focused on the manufacturing Training Next program, says Lt. Col. Ryan Riley, commander instruction with unprecedented speed. With 45 students per gan, the system design review is due BAE is working very closely with the side of things to get cheaper and of Detachment 24. Instead of the pupil coming into the office, class, the service would not have been able to comply with in June. Preliminary design review will government’s Defense Science and faster,” BAE says. The company mo- receiving an in-person brief, locating a training device and social distancing guidance from the Centers for Disease Con- bilized for the program before the gov- executing a mission, Riley’s team was looking ernment signed the contract. at how to conduct those events with both the A receiving array of one of the three Jindalee BAE says higher performance, in- student and instructor at separate locations. radars in the Australian Outback. cluding lower noise, is required from “What we wanted to see, prior to new parts. The work will improve diag- COVID-19, was how far [we could] push the nostics as well: The radars will be bet- bounds of remote instruction,” Riley says. ter able to monitor their condition, and The pandemic turned that desire into a this will include automatic responses need to provide students the same level of to failures. instruction re- The radars currently surveil their motely as they Cadet 1st Class Cade fields of view by shifting from one would in person. Cavanagh used an patch of surveilled area to another; The Air Force immersive training each patch is called a tile. After the up- and training com- device during a Pilot grade, the radars will be able to watch panies were al- Training Next course. multiple tiles simultaneously. Power ready working to BAE SYSTEMS management, currently manual, will develop virtual training systems when follow in 2021, and detail design review Technology Group (DSTG), the origi- become automatic. COVID-19 struck, and the pandemic seems about 12 months later, a BAE spokes- nator of much of the know-how behind The interface with operators will to have accelerated adoption. “There are person says. Program completion is the system. be better, becoming more instinctive- only so many places to train,” says Todd scheduled for 2028. According to BAE, everything in ly usable and needing less training. Probert, defense and security group presi- JENNIFER SPRADLIN/U.S. AIR FORCE The upgrade is called Joint Project the radars will be replaced except for Monitoring of the ionosphere (called dent at CAE. Though the military was once 2025 Phase 6, the name reflecting the their huge transmission and reception sounding) will be improved, along with reluctant to fully tap into distance training, the question has trol and Prevention, according to Lt. Tim Benoit, aviation utility of the radars’ data to all three arrays and maybe the high-power am- signal processing. There will be a leap become: “Is there a way to centralize that instruction?” he preflight indoctrination instructor at Naval Aviation Schools services, even though the Royal Aus- plifiers. BAE and Lockheed Martin, in resolution, the precision with which says. Pilots more than 100 mi. from a training base would Command located in Pensacola, Florida. So in just five days, tralian Air Force (RAAF) operates which formerly supported two of the targets are located and tracked. be required to quarantine for two weeks once they arrived. the Navy created a digital classroom and launched classes them. Together, they are formally radars, are studying whether to pro- Better sensitivity can be assumed, The technology, however, was “very glitchy,” Riley says. for its student Coast Guard, Marine Corps and Navy pilots. called the Jindalee Over-the-Horizon pose replacement of the amplifiers, even though BAE will not discuss the The main problem was latency. So the team got to Benoit had selected flight instructors to test the new dig- Radar Network. too, since they present some difficulty matter beyond saying the upgraded work, disassembling hardware and issuing the newest ital system, and the next day he prepared a presentation to The RAAF says the sensors can in maintenance. New amplifiers may radars will be able to deal with small, equipment to students and some of the instructor corps. train the rest of the instructors. “We were able to adapt to surveil the air and surface as far as be much more powerful, but their full low-flying targets. Generally declin- Another issue was the fact the detachment’s home-use de- this without missing any productivity targets,” Benoit says. 3,000 km (1,900 mi.) away. They bounce power may not be needed. ing to discuss the specifics of perfor- vices were running off a laptop. The team discovered that The Navy does not plan to employ remote instruction high-frequency radio off the ionosphere, The work also will introduce a mance, BAE would not depart from various software programs such as remote screen-sharing after the COVID-19 crisis but views the technology as an so coverage starts at the 1,000-km technology called common aper - the long-standing RAAF description were taxing the central processing unit (CPU) heavily, alternative when a natural disaster such as a hurricane range, which is why the radars have ture receiver array (CARA), says of minimum target size: a BAE Hawk overwhelming laptops, says Lt. Col. Robert Knapp, De - hits. The service is recognizing the advantages of remote been built deep in the Outback. There Gordon Frazer, CEO of subcontrac- trainer. A key, unanswered question tachment 24 operations officer. learning, however, which include saving time and money. is a good reason to think they can tor FrazerLab. “Technically very de- is whether the sensors will be able to “No matter how good a laptop you buy, they’re just never Students have access to each session’s recording and as- see farther than 3,000 km because manding and at the forefront of the detect and track cruise missiles. going to run at the same speed as a desktop computer,” sociated course materials, and the technology would allow Canberra has never bothered to build innovation in Phase 6, CARA expands There is potential to extend the Knapp says. “We took some of our older desktop comput- students not in Pensacola to take the courses. extra radars on the coast. the functions that can be performed daily time period for operation, the ers that were in the building and sent those home with “It can also be used in conjunction with in-person training In 2014, the defense department de- concurrently by the receiver sys- spokesperson says. Operation of ra- students to replace the laptops, which opened up a lot to prep students . . . and it’s been used to enable guest speak- scribed Phase 6 as basically an effort to tem,” Frazer says in a written reply dars of this kind is severely limited at more CPU bandwidth.” ers” in another city, Benoit says. “Those are some things address parts obsolescence, following to Aviation Week questions. “These night, when the ionosphere weakens. c The students also were asked to plug their devices into that I think may persist beyond the pandemic.” c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 35 SUPPLY CHAIN RECONNECTING PARTS > SUPPLIERS AWAIT MORE GUIDANCE BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO OPTIMISTIC > UP TO 20% OF LOWER TIERS COULD EXIT A&D IN CONSOLIDATION WAVE

Michael Bruno Washington

eveloped countries may be opening their economies and cy’s global A&D and aviation practice. loosening social-distancing restrictions, but for aero- “I don’t think they have oŽ cially an- swered that question.” space and defense suppliers, the debate is about how Suppliers are girding for more bad much worse things will get. news. In June, Airbus is expected to D update its midterm production plans The dichotomy is spurred by falling aircraft, the core growth driver for the for its narrowbodies and widebod- demand for aviation-centered manu- entire A&D industry. ies. While Boeing has not specifi cally facturing that will only lessen further Aircraft giants Airbus and Boeing scheduled an update of its own, ana- in coming years, while supply will and Tier 1 suppliers are contemplating lysts and advisors widely expect both see new challenges after COVID-19. such decisions now, several industry leading aircraft OEMs to outline fur- But yet to come are decisions on how insiders tell Aviation Week. Actions ther cuts to monthly rates, as airline supply chains will be refashioned after could start emerging by the third or and lessor demand withered starting cuts of 30-50%—or more—in monthly fourth quarter. in March. production rates of large commercial “There are a lot of big questions At the same time, smaller manu- because first the OEMs need to de- facturers are shelving new projects Production has restarted across cide what they want to do next with including the Mitsubishi SpaceJet re- aerospace manufacturing after their coalitions of suppliers,” says Eric gional aircraft (see page 21). Even the COVID-19 outbreaks, and inventory is Bernardini, AlixPartners managing Lockheed Martin F-35, perhaps the another pressure point to manage. director and co-head of the consultan- single most protected aircraft pro- AIRUS

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUPPLY CHAIN BOEING

Production of large commercial aircraft is being slashed, especially of widebodies such as these Boeing 787s. RECONNECTING gram currently, will see 18-24 fewer deliveries this year due to the novel coronavirus crisis. PARTS By late May, suppliers still had more questions than answers, according to what executives told Wall Street ana- > SUPPLIERS AWAIT MORE GUIDANCE BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO OPTIMISTIC lysts in first-quarter teleconferences. For many, April program cutbacks an- > UP TO 20% OF LOWER TIERS COULD EXIT A&D IN CONSOLIDATION WAVE nounced by Airbus and Boeing had yet to be translated into purchase orders and other guidance for suppliers. Michael Bruno Washington “Everybody is trying to show a good face because, first of all, the first quar- eveloped countries may be opening their economies and cy’s global A&D and aviation practice. ter only had barely two weeks or three loosening social-distancing restrictions, but for aero- “I don’t think they have oŽ cially an- weeks [from] impact the crisis,” says inventory or manufacturing capabil- That was not always the case. As swered that question.” Bernardini. That almost certainly will ity, while others may elect to go into Tom Mayor, a KPMG partner and in- space and defense suppliers, the debate is about how Suppliers are girding for more bad change by July, when second-quarter other markets completely. One larger dustrial manufacturing strategy prac- much worse things will get. news. In June, Airbus is expected to financial results start being revealed, consultancy to large A&D clients says tice leader, puts it, around the start of D update its midterm production plans either fully or in advance warnings to there is 30-50% extra capacity in the the Vietnam War, the U.S. industry The dichotomy is spurred by falling aircraft, the core growth driver for the for its narrowbodies and widebod- investors. “I suspect that when the industrial base for the longer term. saw roughly equal work on the com- demand for aviation-centered manu- entire A&D industry. ies. While Boeing has not specifi cally second-quarter numbers come up in That sober outlook is shared by mercial and defense sides. But since facturing that will only lessen further Aircraft giants Airbus and Boeing scheduled an update of its own, ana- the next earnings calls, there will be a Kevin Michaels, managing director of then, it has changed to 70-80% in favor in coming years, while supply will and Tier 1 suppliers are contemplating lysts and advisors widely expect both different conversation when they show AeroDynamic Advisory and an Avi- of commercial. With the latter sudden- see new challenges after COVID-19. such decisions now, several industry leading aircraft OEMs to outline fur- and share the damage—first in their ation Week guest columnist. “We’re ly flagging for the next 3-5 years due But yet to come are decisions on how insiders tell Aviation Week. Actions ther cuts to monthly rates, as airline top line, and second, of course, on their especially concerned about the Tier 2, to the pandemic, the whole industrial supply chains will be refashioned after could start emerging by the third or and lessor demand withered starting supplier base.” 3 and 4 suppliers,” he says. “Suppliers foundation will be rocked. cuts of 30-50%—or more—in monthly fourth quarter. in March. As many as a fifth of lower-tier A&D have really faced this whole litany of Which sector is most at risk? Sev- production rates of large commercial “There are a lot of big questions At the same time, smaller manu- suppliers could exit the sector over the events that have happened. We had eral commenters list aerostructures because first the OEMs need to de- facturers are shelving new projects next 18 months, seasoned supply chain the supply chain squeeze from the first, as the segment was fragmented Production has restarted across cide what they want to do next with including the Mitsubishi SpaceJet re- experts tell Aviation Week. Some will [Boeing] Partnering for Success 1.0 and suffering lower pretax profit mar- aerospace manufacturing after their coalitions of suppliers,” says Eric gional aircraft (see page 21). Even the go out of business, choose to merge and 2.0 and SCOPE+ at Airbus. Then gins before the crisis. Maintenance, COVID-19 outbreaks, and inventory is Bernardini, AlixPartners managing Lockheed Martin F-35, perhaps the into others or just walk away from suppliers were asked to deploy capex repair and overhaul and parts sup- another pressure point to manage. director and co-head of the consultan- single most protected aircraft pro- A&D for other industries. for a massive ramp-up in single-aisles. pliers to large civil aircraft also are “Either through consolidation or Then we had the [Boeing 737] MAX listed, especially for widebodies and AIRUS attrition you’re probably going to see shutdown, and now we have the older airliners likely to be favored for a number closer to 20%,” says Chris COVID-19 crisis. All of this has signifi- retirement. Several publicly traded Celtruda, a former executive at the new- cantly weakened the supply chain.” suppliers are exposed to varying de- ly merged Aero Precision and Kellstrom Half of the defense supply chain is grees (see tables, page 38). Defense and a longtime partner to pri- seeing cash concerns, Celtruda and Boeing and its suppliers are seen as vate equity investors. “The stress lev- Michaels say. There was “massive” more vulnerable than Airbus and its els [and] liquidity challenges grow the idling of Northeast U.S. suppliers, ecosystem, both because MAX pro- deeper you go in the supply base.” home to engine-making ecosystems, duction is practically null and because He cites the 2013 federal sequestra- and also in Washington state, Wich- there are around 800 inventoried 737s tion as an example, when there was a ita, Dallas-Fort Worth, Arizona and to be delivered in addition to custom- similar, sudden softening of long-term California hubs. ers’ own parked aircraft. Besides re- business plans and 10-15% of smaller Celtruda and Michaels stress it is duced passenger demand subduing suppliers exited the business in the af- not only a commercial aerospace is- aircraft needs, lessors eager to rent out termath. But this downturn is worse. sue but also a growing challenge to the their own increased inventory will com- “I don’t think we’ll see a snap back. I defense industrial base, as evidenced pete with new deliveries and orders. think we’ll see something similar to af- by recent Pentagon concerns and the “The long backlog does provide ter 9/11,” after which it took five years Joint Strike Fighter production roll- some certainty, but we expect a sig- for airlines to get back to precrisis ca- back. Jefferies analysts estimate the nificant amount of cancellations and pacity levels. Defense Department has pushed $3 deferrals to be the story of 2020,” Tier 1s and OEMs will provide finan- billion worth of accelerated payments says the Jefferies analyst team led by cial lifelines to certain Tier 2-4 provid- into the supply chain. Defense officials Sheila Kahyaoglu. ers, especially those with intellectual acknowledge they have learned much Bernardini has a similar view. property and that are critical parts more in recent months how the de - “Some of our customers in the airline providers. But many insiders expect fense industrial base is dependent on industry, they don’t want to spend $1 bankruptcies and asset sales such as the commercial market. on a new delivery,” he says.

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 37 SUPPLY CHAIN Supplier Exposure by Aircraft Platform Percentage of 2020 Estimated Revenue BOEING 737 747 777 787 Spirit AeroSystems 48.2% Triumph Group 5.2% Boeing 17.3% Boeing 19.2% Boeing 22.3 Spirit AeroSystems 1.8 Spirit AeroSystems 16.9 Spirit AeroSystems 16.1 Hexcel 10.5 Boeing 1.7 Hexcel 7.7 Hexcel 10.1 Triumph Group 8.4 Hexcel 0.3 United Technologies* 3.6 United Technologies* 5.3 Woodward 5.9 Woodward 0.3 Triumph Group 2.9 Triumph Group 3.0 TransDigm Group 3.3 United Technologies* 0.2 TransDigm Group 1.0 Woodward 2.0 United Technologies* 2.9 TransDigm Group 0.0 Woodward 0.7 Honeywell International 1.2 Honeywell International 1.6 Honeywell International 0.3 TransDigm Group 1.2

AIRBUS A320 A330 A350 A380 Hexcel 8.2% Rolls-Royce 3.0% Hexcel 12.4% Hexcel 3.6% Triumph Group 7.6 Triumph Group 2.5 Spirit AeroSystems 3.8 TransDigm Group 1.1 Spirit AeroSystems 7.4 Hexcel 1.1 United Technologies* 2.7 United Technologies* 1.1 United Technologies* 4.8 Spirit AeroSystems 0.8 Honeywell International 1.6 Woodward 0.4 TransDigm Group 3.6 Woodward 0.5 TransDigm Group 1.4 Spirit AeroSystems 0.4 Woodward 3.4 United Technologies Aero* 0.4 Triumph Group 0.7 Honeywell International 0.2 Honeywell International 0.6 Honeywell International 0.1 TransDigm Group 0.1

EMBRAER further says. “We estimate retirements supply bases. Decisions are going to E2 Family will rise over the next four years to more be rushed, partly based on liquidity than 7% in 2023,” the Jefferies group crunches at smaller suppliers. Produc- Triumph Group 4.0% said in a late-May report. “The older air- tion rates could hover above delivery Woodward 1.2 craft that are currently parked may be rates for several quarters just to allow Rockwell Collins* 1.0 permanently retired as airlines look to supply chains to adapt, but eventual- balance supply with a new level of lower ly they will be lowered further, likely Moog 1.0 demand.” What is more, the current lev- eliminating more suppliers. United Technologies* 0.8 el of the parked fleet is almost threefold “You won’t be able to support every- what was reached after 9/11 and fourfold body,” Bernardini says. OEMs and Honeywell International 0.2 following the 2008 financial crisis. Tier 1s will make decisions based on That all means lower revenue and supplier reliability and relationships, *Now Raytheon Technologies worsening financial metrics for suppli- he predicts. If someone desirable is Sources: Jefferies and companies ers, almost all of which built up staff distressed or too small to survive and fixed assets to meet prepandemic at lower business levels, OEMs and Kahyaoglu’s team forecasts annual historic levels of A&D business. But in Tier 1s will be tempted to transfer deliveries will be “relatively flat” from talking with industry customers, con- work—but possibly still demand the 2019 through 2023 as deliveries recover sultant Bernardini says he still hears same pricing as before. following an expected 30% decline this too much optimism and an aversion to “Of course, the supplier is going to year. Narrowbody deliveries are expect- worst-case planning. “The first thing say, ‘How can I give you the same pric- ed to fall 16% this year, with the return you need to make sure is that you have ing if I’m doing 25 shifts [when] you to MAX deliveries offset by lower air- the go-dark scenario,” he says. “The asked for 50?’ The [customer] will say, line demand due to the decline in utili- second thing we do is see if they’re ‘Well, because I’m giving you more vol- zation because of COVID-19. Widebody short on liquidity.” Next come how to ume or business, so you can absorb all production and deliveries are expected resize your company and how to re- fixed costs.’” to fall 63% in 2020, driven by lower uti- structure your own supply chain. Adds Bernardini: “You’re going to lization for long-haul flights as interna- According to many industry advi- have a lot of discussion like this, and it tional cancellations climb higher. sors, the downturn came so suddenly may or may not work, depending on the Retirements are expected to affect up that OEMs and top-tier suppliers did supplier and the segment of the supply to 3.3% of the fleet this year, the team not have time to properly plan new chain we’re talking about.” c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUPPLY CHAIN Supplier Exposure by Aircraft Platform Percentage of 2020 Estimated Revenue BOEING 737 747 777 787 Spirit AeroSystems 48.2% Triumph Group 5.2% Boeing 17.3% Boeing 19.2% Boeing 22.3 Spirit AeroSystems 1.8 Spirit AeroSystems 16.9 Spirit AeroSystems 16.1 Hexcel 10.5 Boeing 1.7 Hexcel 7.7 Hexcel 10.1 Triumph Group 8.4 Hexcel 0.3 United Technologies* 3.6 United Technologies* 5.3 Fleet Discover Militar Woodward 5.9 Woodward 0.3 Triumph Group 2.9 Triumph Group 3.0 TransDigm Group 3.3 United Technologies* 0.2 TransDigm Group 1.0 Woodward 2.0 United Technologies* 2.9 TransDigm Group 0.0 Woodward 0.7 Honeywell International 1.2 Honeywell International 1.6 Honeywell International 0.3 TransDigm Group 1.2

AIRBUS Discover pportunit wit A320 A330 A350 A380 Hexcel 8.2% Rolls-Royce 3.0% Hexcel 12.4% Hexcel 3.6% nparalleled rackin o Triumph Group 7.6 Triumph Group 2.5 Spirit AeroSystems 3.8 TransDigm Group 1.1 Spirit AeroSystems 7.4 Hexcel 1.1 United Technologies* 2.7 United Technologies* 1.1 Global Militar Fleets United Technologies* 4.8 Spirit AeroSystems 0.8 Honeywell International 1.6 Woodward 0.4 TransDigm Group 3.6 Woodward 0.5 TransDigm Group 1.4 Spirit AeroSystems 0.4 Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Woodward 3.4 United Technologies Aero* 0.4 Triumph Group 0.7 Honeywell International 0.2 Edition simplifi es tracking global military aircraft and Honeywell International 0.6 Honeywell International 0.1 engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing and rotary TransDigm Group 0.1 — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. EMBRAER further says. “We estimate retirements supply bases. Decisions are going to ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 E2 Family will rise over the next four years to more be rushed, partly based on liquidity than 7% in 2023,” the Jefferies group crunches at smaller suppliers. Produc- engines in service with more than 400 military Triumph Group 4.0% said in a late-May report. “The older air- tion rates could hover above delivery operators. Woodward 1.2 craft that are currently parked may be rates for several quarters just to allow ● Searchable and fi lterable by aircraft, engine, Rockwell Collins* 1.0 permanently retired as airlines look to supply chains to adapt, but eventual- balance supply with a new level of lower ly they will be lowered further, likely category, mission, lift type, weight class and Moog 1.0 demand.” What is more, the current lev- eliminating more suppliers. more. United Technologies* 0.8 el of the parked fleet is almost threefold “You won’t be able to support every- what was reached after 9/11 and fourfold body,” Bernardini says. OEMs and See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can Honeywell International 0.2 following the 2008 financial crisis. Tier 1s will make decisions based on That all means lower revenue and supplier reliability and relationships, help you track aircraft and engines so you never *Now Raytheon Technologies worsening financial metrics for suppli- he predicts. If someone desirable is miss a business opportunity. Sources: Jefferies and companies ers, almost all of which built up staff distressed or too small to survive and fixed assets to meet prepandemic at lower business levels, OEMs and Kahyaoglu’s team forecasts annual historic levels of A&D business. But in Tier 1s will be tempted to transfer deliveries will be “relatively flat” from talking with industry customers, con- work—but possibly still demand the 2019 through 2023 as deliveries recover sultant Bernardini says he still hears same pricing as before. o learn more, o to following an expected 30% decline this too much optimism and an aversion to “Of course, the supplier is going to year. Narrowbody deliveries are expect- worst-case planning. “The first thing say, ‘How can I give you the same pric- aviationweek.com/FDMilitar ed to fall 16% this year, with the return you need to make sure is that you have ing if I’m doing 25 shifts [when] you to MAX deliveries offset by lower air- the go-dark scenario,” he says. “The asked for 50?’ The [customer] will say, Or call: line demand due to the decline in utili- second thing we do is see if they’re ‘Well, because I’m giving you more vol- Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 zation because of COVID-19. Widebody short on liquidity.” Next come how to ume or business, so you can absorb all Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 production and deliveries are expected resize your company and how to re- fixed costs.’” to fall 63% in 2020, driven by lower uti- structure your own supply chain. Adds Bernardini: “You’re going to lization for long-haul flights as interna- According to many industry advi- have a lot of discussion like this, and it tional cancellations climb higher. sors, the downturn came so suddenly may or may not work, depending on the Retirements are expected to affect up that OEMs and top-tier suppliers did supplier and the segment of the supply to 3.3% of the fleet this year, the team not have time to properly plan new chain we’re talking about.” c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST MANUFACTURING > Optimization tools and design engineers’ role p. 43 ADDITIVELY SOBER

> 3D PRINTING MACHINES FALL SHORT, > THE TECHNOLOGY IN A&D STILL STANDARDS ARE UNRESOLVED, AND COULD SEE 17% COMPOUND ANNUAL TRAINING IS MISSING GROWTH RATE ASCENT AEROSPACE IT

Michael Bruno Washington Ascent Aerospace, a provider of fter decades of tinkering and years of major investments, aerospace tooling systems, factory automation and integration, in May aerospace and defense companies finally have found unveiled its large-format additive Aresonant missions for their 3D printers. manufacturing machine. It was The catch: It is for personal pro - by annual revenue, announced similar installed in Santa Ana, California, tective equipment (PPE), the face efforts, with the latter engaging nearly alongside Ascent’s composite tool- masks and gear in strong demand 70 3D printers across its global loca- ing shop, autoclave and clean room. following the COVID-19 outbreak, tions to produce as many as 2,500 face not for A&D products. shield headbands a week. for optimism and sobering reminders In April, Boeing announced it was To be sure, the surge of 3D-printed why manufacturing in the sector has activating its additive manufacturing PPE from A&D represents the sector not fundamentally changed. (AM) network to create parts for face pivoting to address an immediate pub- “You’ve got to have some hype to get shields using 3D printing. The giant lic crisis. Yet A&D’s AM machinery has to the point where someone says, ‘Yes, A&D company targeted an initial never been so universally marshaled, I’m going to buy $5 million of laser production rate of several thousand marking a climax for an advanced tech- wire deposition equipment,’” says a week. Unionized workers donated nology that has been decades in devel- Laura Ely, a former leader of GKN overtime, and AM machines from opment but short of paradigm-shifting Aerospace’s AM efforts who is now an St. Louis to Puget Sound in Washing- results inside industry. Why is that? industry advisor at the Barnes Group. ton to Huntington Beach, California, Like flying cars and orbital space “The problem that we have now is it’s and Huntsville, Alabama, were en- tourism, 3D-printed aircraft have so overhyped that it’s just, like, ‘stop.’ gaged. Boeing’s advanced technology remained a distant goal passed from We don’t need any more evangelizing. subsidiaries Argon ST and Aurora generation to generation. Now, as We need people [who] understand Flight Sciences also participated. A&D enters a new phase of post- how to get out of the trough.” Airbus and Raytheon Technologies, pandemic business conditions, AM Ely and others point to the “Gartner the other two leading A&D companies evangelists are seeing both reason hype curve” for AM in A&D, a chart

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST MANUFACTURING > Optimization tools and design engineers’ role p. 43

produced by the eponymous consul- dustry genuinely saw the fi rst class of sive amounts of tweaking on it. tancy and popular at industry con- structural-grade output directly from “With any of the major [A&D] man- ferences for the way it visualizes the 3D printers. ufacturers , you hear a story of a lemon ADDITIVELY SOBER adoption of 3D printing (see chart). “Aerospace companies grasped the that they got from them—every single Gartner in 2019 placed A&D AM near technology in the 1990s,” says Scott one,” she continues. That becomes an > 3D PRINTING MACHINES FALL SHORT, > THE TECHNOLOGY IN A&D STILL the bottom of a downslope entering the Killian, business development manag- issue because industry is looking for “ trough of disillusionment.” It will take er for aerospace at EOS, a provider applications, not experiments. “I do STANDARDS ARE UNRESOLVED, AND COULD SEE 17% COMPOUND ANNUAL 5-10 years before 3D printing in A&D of metal and polymer laser-sintering feel that the general consumer, they’re TRAINING IS MISSING GROWTH RATE gets to the “plateau of productivity.” AM machines, materials and services. past the point of ‘I’m just going to buy “There are examples where the Killian has more than 25 years in the a machine just to play around with,” industry is more advanced than that, sector, dating to DTM, a forerunner Ely adds. where people would defi nitely argue, provider. He recalls the excitement in There also are gaps in what is ‘N o, we’re walking up the slope of en- industry after GE Aviation unveiled needed. “Unfortunately, even though lightenment. We’ve got our produc- the 3D-printed Leap engine fuel nozzle there are a lot of companies trying to tion factory, and we’re getting closer in the early 2010s. “We really expected speed up and produce new powders, to that plateau of productivity,’” says a lot of other people to kind of pile on fi laments and materials for additive Ely. “But that is more the exception with that,” he says. “And then, for lack manufacturing, we still have some than the norm. The examples are of a better term, things seemed to stall limitations about which materials we there, but it is defi nitely not something a little bit.” have on the market,” Castaneda says. that would be true across the industry. Juan Carlos Munguia Castaneda At the same time, both Castaneda That might represent the 5% that are is engineering director at M Aero- and Ely point to shortfalls in A&D playing in additive manufacturing.” space RTC and recently presented at practitioners applying AM. “If you According to several interviews and the SAE AeroTech Digital Summit. don’t do an optimization of the part, reports, what is holding back A&D is He has a master’s degree in aero- you will have weight concerns,” its cultural rigidity—often a benefi t in space design with a focus on additive Castaneda says. “It will use a lot of maintaining high safety levels but also manufacturing and has worked for material instead of reducing the ma- a hindrance to innovation—as well as suppliers such as Collins Aerospace, terial you are using.” more corporate-level issues including now part of Raytheon Technologies. Another compounding challenge is insufficient personnel training and He and Ely note that there are still surface fi nishes. There are many ef- challenging business cases. There also many limitations on the supply side forts to improve the printing itself, but ASCENT AEROSPACE IT are issues in matching 3D-printing re- of 3D printing. most of the time further fi nishing is alities to A&D needs. “Equipment manufacturers are required once it is out of the printer to It has been a long time in the mak- not quite hitting the bar of people’s get to fi nal specs. This begets inconsis- ing. The fi rst technologies were in the expectations,” Ely says. “If you buy tencies, the demon of quality control 1980s, and the fi rst metals and work- a standard CNC [machine], you have in replication. fl ows came in the 1990s. But invest- a set of expectations from really any “There are not a lot of industry Michael Bruno Washington Ascent Aerospace, a provider of ment casting and sintering of green supplier . . . that things will operate standards yet for additive process- fter decades of tinkering and years of major investments, aerospace tooling systems, factory parts came only in 2006-10, when in- correctly, so we won’t have to do mas- es, and the aerospace business is all automation and integration, in May about standards,” Killian says. Related to that, “to get a part on an airplane aerospace and defense companies finally have found unveiled its large-format additive resonant missions for their 3D printers. from ground zero with additive man- A manufacturing machine. It was Peak of T C ufacturing to actually fl y is millions of installed in Santa Ana, California, Infl ated The catch: It is for personal pro - by annual revenue, announced similar Expectations D AD dollars,” he notes, because certifi cation tective equipment (PPE), the face efforts, with the latter engaging nearly alongside Ascent’s composite tool- is part-oriented. masks and gear in strong demand 70 3D printers across its global loca- ing shop, autoclave and clean room. But even as the machinery and following the COVID-19 outbreak, tions to produce as many as 2,500 face business model remain challenges, not for A&D products. shield headbands a week. for optimism and sobering reminders human resources are a bigger In April, Boeing announced it was To be sure, the surge of 3D-printed why manufacturing in the sector has issue. “There is a lot of activating its additive manufacturing PPE from A&D represents the sector not fundamentally changed. lack of training—not a (AM) network to create parts for face pivoting to address an immediate pub- “You’ve got to have some hype to get TIME lot of people actually shields using 3D printing. The giant lic crisis. Yet A&D’s AM machinery has to the point where someone says, ‘Yes, know how to use ad- A&D company targeted an initial never been so universally marshaled, I’m going to buy $5 million of laser Plateau of ditive manufacturing,” production rate of several thousand marking a climax for an advanced tech- wire deposition equipment,’” says Productivity Castaneda says. a week. Unionized workers donated nology that has been decades in devel- Laura Ely, a former leader of GKN Priti Ely agrees. “What is Slope of overtime, and AM machines from opment but short of paradigm-shifting Aerospace’s AM efforts who is now an i Aerospace the biggest thing that’s EXPECTATIONS a efese Enlightenment St. Louis to Puget Sound in Washing- results inside industry. Why is that? industry advisor at the Barnes Group. keeping AM from being used ton to Huntington Beach, California, Like flying cars and orbital space “The problem that we have now is it’s Trough of in a broader sense? The answer is and Huntsville, Alabama, were en- tourism, 3D-printed aircraft have so overhyped that it’s just, like, ‘stop.’ Disillusionment people— [they] are not broadly educat- gaged. Boeing’s advanced technology remained a distant goal passed from We don’t need any more evangelizing. ed on additive manufacturing processes subsidiaries Argon ST and Aurora generation to generation. Now, as We need people [who] understand Innovation or how to design with them or use them Flight Sciences also participated. A&D enters a new phase of post- how to get out of the trough.” Trigger in a manufacturing setting,” she says. Airbus and Raytheon Technologies, pandemic business conditions, AM Ely and others point to the “Gartner Source:rer “Aerospace is what we call a the other two leading A&D companies evangelists are seeing both reason hype curve” for AM in A&D, a chart risk-averse industry,” notes Patrick

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 4 MANUFACTURING

Dunne, vice president for advanced Despite the frustrations, there is from it,” Killian says. application develop ment at 3D Sys- widespread agreement that AM’s “Direct metal printing will really tems and a longtime proponent for role will continue to grow in A&D. The only be applicable for small, thin-wall, AM in A&D. aerospace 3D-printing market was es- highly detailed components,” Dunnes “What I do see generally is it is the timated at $1.86 billion in 2019 and is notes. “That’s the reality, so [it would fresh-out-of-college, inexperienced expected to grow at a compound an- be] fuel injectors and small little brack- [folks who] have never been shouted nual growth rate (CAGR) of almost ets and stuff like that. It doesn’t make at by design for manufacturing folks 17% over the next seven years to $6.72 sense economically to use it for big actually lead to iterations. . . . Folks billion in 2027. In January, market re- parts. For indirect metals, which we who know what they’re doing would search companies Million Insights and class as investment casting, there are never have considered it in the first Stratview Research separately said far better economics with investment place,” he says. “Now we have folks A&D will be a key customer propelling casting and far more opportunities.” that have grown up in a world where the greater 3D-printing industry this Meanwhile, Ely and Killian point 3D printing has always existed. It’s not decade, with a CAGR of 34%. to the space sector, as the advent of a a novelty item anymore to them, it’s Killian says the next five years will commercial low-Earth-orbit market- another tool in the toolbox.” bring a dramatic pickup in utilization. place allows more from-scratch design In her current advisory job, Ely Interestingly, the coronavirus pan- and manufacturing. “The people who says she encounters the same prob- demic is not expected to have much are really advancing in particular with lem across industry. Clients say, “‘We of an effect on AM utilization. Part of additive manufacturing are people in bought a machine, it costs a lot of that is because it still is not applicable the space arena, and part of that has money; we’re kind of struggling a little to around 75% of A&D manufacturing, to do with how mission-critical hard- bit, and we don’t really know what to especially larger aircraft subsystems ware is certified,” Ely says. do next.’ That is a really common one.” and flight-critical parts—and may not “There are not lots of volumes The solutions, according to Ely, of- be for a long time to come. right now, so that means there are ten are elementary: Have you plotted “There are millions of parts out not a whole lot of machines out there your qualification and certification there [on which] you shouldn’t even building tons of rocket parts yet,” says plan? Have you gotten the machine be wasting time trying to put it in Killian. “But it’s going to happen, and calmed down and qualified? additive; you cannot get any benefit we’re pretty excited about it.” c

October 27-29 2020 Co-located with Barcelona, Spain

Gather with industry leadership and stakeholders to respond to impacts of this unprecedented time. • Develop best practices for bringing about recovery • Join the conversation around what the future will look like for airlines/MROs • Source new suppliers and reconnect with old • Connect with friends and colleagues

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42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST MANUFACTURING

Dunne, vice president for advanced Despite the frustrations, there is from it,” Killian says. use another tool in a different work­ application develop ment at 3D Sys- widespread agreement that AM’s “Direct metal printing will really Designer-Optimized place. “If that part did not work, you tems and a longtime proponent for role will continue to grow in A&D. The only be applicable for small, thin-wall, would go back to Step 1, and the loop AM in A&D. aerospace 3D-printing market was es- highly detailed components,” Dunnes would take a couple of weeks to con­ “What I do see generally is it is the timated at $1.86 billion in 2019 and is notes. “That’s the reality, so [it would > GENERATIVE DESIGN PRODUCES STRUCTURALLY OPTIMIZED PARTS verge,” says Zeigler. “What we have fresh-out-of-college, inexperienced expected to grow at a compound an- be] fuel injectors and small little brack- achieved is to reduce that couple of [folks who] have never been shouted nual growth rate (CAGR) of almost ets and stuff like that. It doesn’t make > OPTIMIZATION IS EXPANDING INTO OTHER DOMAINS weeks to a couple of hours—and un­ at by design for manufacturing folks 17% over the next seven years to $6.72 sense economically to use it for big der the same roof.” actually lead to iterations. . . . Folks billion in 2027. In January, market re- parts. For indirect metals, which we Graham Warwick Washington Generative engineering and topol­ who know what they’re doing would search companies Million Insights and class as investment casting, there are ogy optimization are putting simu­ never have considered it in the first Stratview Research separately said far better economics with investment or the providers of the software we’re talking about spaceflight, 1 lb. lation­based tools at the engineer’s place,” he says. “Now we have folks A&D will be a key customer propelling casting and far more opportunities.” tools used in aerospace design costs $10,000 to launch,” says Frankel. fingertips, giving them an automated that have grown up in a world where the greater 3D-printing industry this Meanwhile, Ely and Killian point Foffices around the world, the “Companies tell me they are willing to capability to explore a wider design 3D printing has always existed. It’s not decade, with a CAGR of 34%. to the space sector, as the advent of a capability is already in place to enable pay $2,000­3,000 more for a part that space and create a better part. “The a novelty item anymore to them, it’s Killian says the next five years will commercial low-Earth-orbit market- engineers to create better parts using delivers a 1­lb. weight saving.” companies that are embracing gener­ another tool in the toolbox.” bring a dramatic pickup in utilization. place allows more from-scratch design additive manufacturing. What is hold­ Additive manufacturing (AM) can ative engineering and 3D printing are In her current advisory job, Ely Interestingly, the coronavirus pan- and manufacturing. “The people who ing the technology back is its econom­ also reduce assembly steps by a factor on a path to disrupt their industry,” says she encounters the same prob- demic is not expected to have much are really advancing in particular with ics compared with the of 10, by consolidating says Frankel. But it is no easy task. lem across industry. Clients say, “‘We of an effect on AM utilization. Part of additive manufacturing are people in traditional manufac­ parts and reducing “First they need to find the ideal ma­ bought a machine, it costs a lot of that is because it still is not applicable the space arena, and part of that has turing processes used SIEMENS DIGITAL INDUSTRIES SOFTWARE the buy­to­fly ratio terial for the application. Then they money; we’re kind of struggling a little to around 75% of A&D manufacturing, to do with how mission-critical hard- across the industry. of raw material to need to create the ideal design. Then bit, and we don’t really know what to especially larger aircraft subsystems ware is certified,” Ely says. Once the cost and finished part by a they have to qualify the process to do next.’ That is a really common one.” and flight-critical parts—and may not “There are not lots of volumes time required to certi­ factor of 10. produce it repeatably and flawlessly. The solutions, according to Ely, of- be for a long time to come. right now, so that means there are fy the powder materi­ “The question Then, finally, the parts they make have ten are elementary: Have you plotted “There are millions of parts out not a whole lot of machines out there als have been reduced today is not wheth­ to be certified. It’s a big challenge.” your qualification and certification there [on which] you shouldn’t even building tons of rocket parts yet,” says and the processes to er additive manu­ Additive manufacturing and gener­ plan? Have you gotten the machine be wasting time trying to put it in Killian. “But it’s going to happen, and finish the parts after facturing is a great ative design “are inverting the natural calmed down and qualified? additive; you cannot get any benefit we’re pretty excited about it.” c printing have been technology, but order of engineering,” says Frankel. automated, then the when it can move “Designers used to worry about cre­ powerful optimiza­ into the realm of in­ ating the form of a product, and the tion tools that have dustrialization,” says engineers’ responsibility was to test been placed at the Zeigler. “The reason whether it accomplished its function. fingertips of design it is more success­ Now the designer is specifying the Co-located with engineers can be ful­ ful in space than in function and the engineering software October 27-29 2020 ly exploited, software commercial aviation is automatically determining the form.” Barcelona, Spain providers say. Generative engineering uses is because of compe­ More so than AM, perhaps, it is the “We are on jour ­ simulation to create optimized tition with tradition­ optimization tools that will bring the neys with a number of designs within constraints set al manufacturing biggest change to aerospace, because customers to do what by the engineer. methods, which for they work with all manufacturing pro­ we call industrialized long­series produc­ cesses. “Looking ahead, we will have additive manufacturing,” says Aaron tion are still more economical.” generative engineering for more than Gather with industry leadership and Frankel, additive manufacturing soft­ Zeigler does not believe engineer the design of products. We’ll be look­ ware program vice president at Sie­ training or skills are holding AM back, ing at leveraging generative engineer­ stakeholders to respond to impacts mens Digital Industries Software. “We because the design software available ing for manufacturing, using simula­ are looking to enable companies to today provides the capabilities need­ tion­based applications to determine of this unprecedented time. design­optimized applications and then ed to exploit the technology. “We are the optimal routing for a product produce those parts in large volumes.” providing generative design tools that through the factory based on the • Develop best practices for “The design technology has been allow you to start the design of your equipment available,” Frankel says. bringing about recovery deployed for a couple of years now,” part in a CAD [computer­aided design] Simulation­based optimization has • Join the conversation around says David Zeigler, aerospace and de­ environment, optimize the topology of been around for 30 years but began what the future will look like for airlines/MROs fense industry vice president at Das­ the structure, run all the simulations in the domain of computer­aided en­ sault Systemes. “If you look at the in terms of stress and prepare all the gineering (CAE), which comes after • Source new suppliers and reconnect with old different segments, additive manufac­ manufacturing engineering,” he says. CAD and replaces physical testing for • Connect with friends and colleagues turing is really getting more traction “It is a one­stop shop to give all the design validation. “It didn’t guide the in the space domain, where they are engineers in the design office the ca­ designer a lot, but it facilitated the val­ MRO Europe provides the opportunity to come together. looking at doing 70% of their compo­ pability to do all the processes.” idation process,” says Dhiren Marjadi, nents in additive manufacturing.” This represents a fundamental global aerospace business vice presi­ We look forward to seeing you. The technology is more developed shift in the role of the design engineer. dent at optimization pioneer Altair. in space than in commercial aviation Traditionally, the process would start The recent shift has been to move Learn more and register at: mroeurope.aviationweek.com because the applications are targeting with a CAD part, its topology would optimization to the front of the design the weight saving, which is up to 40% be optimized in a different tool, and cycle. “Automotive companies are us­ over traditional manufacturing meth­ finite­element analysis to determine ing it before CAD nowadays,” he says. ods such as casting or forging. “When the residual stresses in the part would “It comes before CAD and we are doing

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 43 MANUFACTURING DASSAULT SYSTEMES

things like motion, structural and CFD mization to produce a vehicle concept, Topology optimization is being [computational fluid dynamics] analy- then transitioned that 1D mathemati- expanded to enable the simulation sis and optimization and manufactur- cal simulation into 3D for CFD analysis of the entire factory. ability simulation so that the designer and structural optimization. “Normally, creates a part that meets the structural everything you do in the 1D world gets coming into the picture, for example and other requirements but also meets lost when you go to 3D,” Marjadi says. to model and predict the fatigue life the manufacturability requirements. Topology optimization is being ex- of AM parts based on local material We believe that CAD is now essentially panded from individual components properties, loads, build orientation, documenting the design.” to assembly-level design and from sin- surface finish and post-processing. Typically, simulation has been used gle to multiple configuration options Generative engineering can even for virtual testing. “Generative design in search of the best design. “Topol- help the designer perform a trade-off and topology optimization flip that ogy optimization almost becomes a analysis between manufacturing pro- on its head,” says Jeff Blanford, pre- loop within the loop,” says Blanford. cesses. “If the focus is weight, most sales solution consultant at Siemens. “I will have a tool that will alter the probably additive will be the winner,” “Simulation is being used to generate parameters for each iteration and for says Zeigler. ‘What our customers are the design from the beginning rather every iteration run a topology optimi- doing now is building their cost index- than being an afterward check. That’s zation based on that new constraint es into [generative design] to perform where the value lies, because now you set. That’s where our customers are trade-off analyses of the cost of pro- are blurring the line between simula- trying to attack that holy grail of gen- ducing a part versus the manufactur- tion, design and manufacturing.” erative design.” ing technology.” Initially used at the part level to Optimization is also expanding There is a cultural challenge when it remove weight by optimizing the ge- into other domains, including flow comes to the blurring of lines between ometry, topology optimization is now and thermal, not just to reduce part design, simulation and manufacturing. being expanded to assemblies and into weight but to improve system perfor- “Those users who take advantage of domains beyond structural design. mance. Optimizing the flow in ducts, generative design and additive manu- Used in the automotive sector, Altair’s for example, would reduce the size of facturing are typically those who are C123 process begins with load-path motors required to move air and flu- willing to go outside their comfort identification to optimize the overall id around aircraft, which would save zone. They have the most value to the vehicle configuration, then rapid siz- weight, says Frankel. company,” says Blanford. ing of structural load paths and finally Here additive manufacturing comes “We’ve reached an inflection point detail design and creation of the bills back into the picture, because genera- in engineering, where we’ve moved of materials and processes. tive engineering can result in designs from an emphasis on people doing Altair has also demonstrated glob- that can only be produced using AM. the engineering to an emphasis on the al-level topology optimization under The key is automating the process to software,” says Frankel. “Engineers a U.S. Navy project. It took the mis- turn topology-optimized designs into are not going away. We are going to sion requirements for a vertical-take- practical parts that can go directly need engineers, but they are going to off-and-landing unmanned aircraft, into virtual validation and on to 3D know more than our typical siloed en- performed a high-level system opti- printing. Machine learning is also gineers did in the past.” c

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST MANUFACTURING AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT DASSAULT SYSTEMES

Europe’s GPS Augmentation System full availability around airports is a consistent extension, he adds. Aims at Category 2 Approaches Moreover, most commercial air- craft (such as the Airbus A220, A320 FUTURE EGNOS WILL ENABLE CATEGORY 1 WORLDWIDE and A350, as well as ATR regional > turboprops) have or will soon have > GPS’ AND GALILEO’S FUTURE CAPABILITIES WILL BE LEVERAGED EGNOS capability. “In 2028, Cat. 1 approaches will Thierry Dubois Lyon be required to use EGNOS only,” Monnerat notes. he contracts that the Euro - management in Europe. A source of More pressing is the recent Euro- pean Space Agency recently inaccuracy, ionospheric interference pean regulation that calls for every Tawarded for upgrades to the can be evaluated, thanks to dual-fre- airport equipped with a ground-based European Geostationary Navigation quency technology, he explains. Dual- instrument landing system (ILS) to Overlay Service (EGNOS, a GPS aug- frequency design also makes the sys- create a similar EGNOS approach by mentation system) are another sign tem more robust against malicious 2024. In case of ILS failure or main- of the EU’s consistent move toward interference. tenance, EGNOS would ensure the satellite-based navigation for com- The upgrade is in a proof-of-concept availability of a Cat. 1 approach. mercial aviation. phase. “It will be ready for demonstra- As satellite navigation availability Satellite navigation is independent tion within 15 months,” says Michel and adoption ramps up, the decom- from navigation aids on the ground; therefore, the overall cost for the AIRBUS industry is deemed lower. Benefits An increasing number of aircraft types such as the Airbus A350 are expected especially for airport (pictured) include EGNOS receivers for satellite-based navigation. approaches, but the service can be things like motion, structural and CFD mization to produce a vehicle concept, Topology optimization is being provided anywhere—making it easy [computational fluid dynamics] analy- then transitioned that 1D mathemati- expanded to enable the simulation to adapt to evolving traffic. sis and optimization and manufactur- cal simulation into 3D for CFD analysis of the entire factory. The first upgrade under consider- ability simulation so that the designer and structural optimization. “Normally, ation centers on improving the ap - creates a part that meets the structural everything you do in the 1D world gets coming into the picture, for example proach performance to Category 2 and other requirements but also meets lost when you go to 3D,” Marjadi says. to model and predict the fatigue life (Cat. 2). This involves a decision height the manufacturability requirements. Topology optimization is being ex- of AM parts based on local material (DH, the lowest elevation for the crew We believe that CAD is now essentially panded from individual components properties, loads, build orientation, to decide whether to proceed with documenting the design.” to assembly-level design and from sin- surface finish and post-processing. landing or perform a go-around) of Typically, simulation has been used gle to multiple configuration options Generative engineering can even 100 ft. EGNOS’ current performance for virtual testing. “Generative design in search of the best design. “Topol- help the designer perform a trade-off stands at Cat. 1, with a DH of 200 ft. and topology optimization flip that ogy optimization almost becomes a analysis between manufacturing pro- Receiving two signals instead of one on its head,” says Jeff Blanford, pre- loop within the loop,” says Blanford. cesses. “If the focus is weight, most is a crucial change at the aircraft level. sales solution consultant at Siemens. “I will have a tool that will alter the probably additive will be the winner,” The current EGNOS system is using “Simulation is being used to generate parameters for each iteration and for says Zeigler. ‘What our customers are only the GPS L1 signal. The upgrade the design from the beginning rather every iteration run a topology optimi- doing now is building their cost index- to be introduced will make the most than being an afterward check. That’s zation based on that new constraint es into [generative design] to perform of the addition of the L5 signal into where the value lies, because now you set. That’s where our customers are trade-off analyses of the cost of pro- the GPS architecture. Moreover, the Monnerat, navigation domain bid and mission of navigation aids on the are blurring the line between simula- trying to attack that holy grail of gen- ducing a part versus the manufactur- updated EGNOS system will use both advanced projects director at Thales ground will accelerate. tion, design and manufacturing.” erative design.” ing technology.” GPS and Galileo, the latter also trans- Alenia Space. The two contracts for The other upgrade for which Thales Initially used at the part level to Optimization is also expanding There is a cultural challenge when it mitting in L1 and L5. study and development, awarded in Alenia Space has received a study remove weight by optimizing the ge- into other domains, including flow comes to the blurring of lines between “Thanks to this increased augmen- May, are part of the EU’s Horizon 2020 contract is about verifying navigation ometry, topology optimization is now and thermal, not just to reduce part design, simulation and manufacturing. tation, a new EGNOS receiver will research and technology program. satellite signal integrity—internal being expanded to assemblies and into weight but to improve system perfor- “Those users who take advantage of benefit from increased availability and ESA is acting on behalf of the EU. consistency and absence of corrup- domains beyond structural design. mance. Optimizing the flow in ducts, generative design and additive manu- continuity of service for vertical guid- The European GNSS Agency, known tion—worldwide. Used in the automotive sector, Altair’s for example, would reduce the size of facturing are typically those who are ance,” European Space Agency (ESA) as GSA, operates EGNOS and Galileo. On the next generation of Galileo C123 process begins with load-path motors required to move air and flu- willing to go outside their comfort Navigation Director Paul Verhoef says. “The improved accuracy and ro- satellites, the signal will include in- identification to optimize the overall id around aircraft, which would save zone. They have the most value to the The vertical alert limit (the maximum bustness will have most of their add- tegrity information. It will support vehicle configuration, then rapid siz- weight, says Frankel. company,” says Blanford. allowable vertical position error) is re- ed value around large airport hubs,” the advanced receiver autonomous in- ing of structural load paths and finally Here additive manufacturing comes “We’ve reached an inflection point duced to 33 ft., down from 115 ft., thus Merlo says. “This is where a loss of tegrity monitoring (A-RAIM) concept, detail design and creation of the bills back into the picture, because genera- in engineering, where we’ve moved allowing a lower DH, he says. satellite coverage can have a major im- whereby integrity is mainly assessed of materials and processes. tive engineering can result in designs from an emphasis on people doing “The dual-frequency capability is pact. Part of the traffic would have to onboard. A-RAIM uses GPS and Altair has also demonstrated glob- that can only be produced using AM. the engineering to an emphasis on the key [because] it removes the uncer- switch to radar vectoring, which would Galileo as well as information com- al-level topology optimization under The key is automating the process to software,” says Frankel. “Engineers tainty on ionospheric interference,” reduce capacity. Traffic will more con- puted by a dedicated ground segment. a U.S. Navy project. It took the mis- turn topology-optimized designs into are not going away. We are going to says Philippe Merlo, Eurocontrol’s fidently rely on satellite navigation— Therefore, with A-RAIM, Galileo and sion requirements for a vertical-take- practical parts that can go directly need engineers, but they are going to direc tor of European civil and mil- notably for improved trajectories.” EGNOS will open the possibility to off-and-landing unmanned aircraft, into virtual validation and on to 3D know more than our typical siloed en- itary aviation. Eurocontrol is the Crews now use satellite systems as create Cat. 1 approaches with vertical performed a high-level system opti- printing. Machine learning is also gineers did in the past.” c organization in charge of air traffic their primary means of navigation, so guidance worldwide, Monnerat says. c

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 45 AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ‘Preferred’ Surveillance > PANDEMIC DELAYS ANALYSIS > CLOSER SEPARATIONS USED OF ADS-B BENEFITS IN SEATTLE AND BOSTON

A tower controller monitored a display with ADS-B aircraft targets at Asheville Regional Airport in North Carolina. AA S Bill Carey Washington anuary marked a milestone in the FAA’s implemen- tation of automatic dependent surveillance-broad- Jcast, a core program of the agency’s long-running NextGen modernization that complements radar with a sat- ellite-based method of tracking aircraft, providing greater overall coverage, better accuracy and higher update rates. As of Jan. 1, the FAA required that aircraft fl ying in most U.S.-controlled airspace be equipped with transponders that continuously broadcast their GPS-derived position and identity to ground controllers, the function called automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) Out. The ADS-B ground infrastructure of 658 nationwide ra- dio sites, owned and operated by L3Harris Technologies for Controller displays fuse data from di erent surveillance the FAA, was completed in 2014. The FAA has integrated sensors. Aircraft that are not transmitting by ADS-B are the system at 24 en route air tra” c control (ATC) facilities tagged with a white circle preceding the call sign. In this and 155 terminal radar approach control (Tracon) facilities . photo, N1634F is equipped with ADS-B, while N1173X is not. In October 2019, the FAA said it had started using the surveillance system at the last two of 155 airports to re- far, as indicated by the number of “ADS-B aircraft detected.” ceive ADS-B: Akron-Canton Airport and Mansfi eld Lahm That fi gure, tracked by an ADS-B Performance Monitor Regional Airport, both in Ohio. at the FAA Technical Center near Atlantic City, New Jer- Then this year, the COVID-19 pandemic struck. President sey, represents the number of aircraft transmitting unique Donald Trump declared a national emergency on March 13, 24-bit International Civil Aviation Organization addresses and four days later the FAA announced the fi rst temporary to ground stations during the past two years. closure of an ATC facility—the tower at Chicago Midway As of June 1, the FAA had detected 126,825 aircraft that International Airport—after multiple technicians there comply with ADS-B Out requirements. Of these, 105,247 tested positive for the coronavirus. were general aviation (GA) fi xed-wing, experimental and The agency listed 50 ATC facilities that have been light-sport aircraft and helicopters ; 6,553 were airliners. aŸ ected by the virus as of June 1. The balance of 15,025 aircraft were counted as ADS-B- The suppression of air travel caused by the pandemic must equipped but not revealed to the public by category, in- be considered in gauging the readiness of tens of thousands cluding U.S. military and government special-use aircraft, of aircraft operators for the ADS-B equipage mandate. But gliders and drones. the FAA says it is pleased with the levels of compliance thus Under the equipment mandate, aircraft flying above

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

18,000 ft. must be equipped with 1090ES Mode S extended “This is huge because ADS-B is fi lling in the gaps, and ‘Preferred’ Surveillance squitter transponders to broadcast their position; lower-fl y- that’s resulting in a decrease in our predicted tra— c con- ing aircraft can use either 1090ES or Universal Access fl icts as well as an increase in our NAS e— ciency for opera- Transceivers (UAT) operating at 978 MHz. tors who are using this airspace,” Williams says. > PANDEMIC DELAYS ANALYSIS > CLOSER SEPARATIONS USED Of the total ADS-B-compliant aircraft detected, the FAA She adds: “ADS-B has created a seamless surveillance OF ADS-B BENEFITS IN SEATTLE AND BOSTON says, 99,047 were equipped with 1090ES Mode S transpon- picture within our terminal environment, improving aircraft ders, 26,590 with UAT, and 1,188 with both 1090ES and tracking throughout all of our Tracons, which enhances also UAT avionics. our operational safety and e— ciency. The terminal airspace The FAA says approximately 100% of airliners are now can get congested quickly. Any relief we can provide to help ADS-B-equipped. The number of GA aircraft detected air tra— c controllers and operators with common situa- (105,247) represents about 69% of the 153,000 GA airplanes, tional awareness is huge.” business jets, helicopters, experimental aircraft and light- The FAA announced in October 2018 that it would con- sport aircraft that fl ew through ADS-B surveillance airspace duct an operational evaluation of the Aireon satellite-based before the mandate entered force—an estimate obtained ADS-B system in the Caribbean region from Florida to from the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association. Puerto Rico, tracking aircraft over water from its Miami The sharp decline in air tra— c movements because of the ARTCC. The one-year evaluation started as planned this coronavirus pandemic skews any evaluation of the promised March despite the pandemic, Williams says. safety and e— ciency benefi ts of ADS-B, such as the capa- Aireon’s system captures ADS-B signals from aircraft bility the system provides to reduce aircraft separations using receivers carried as hosted payloads on Iridium in congested airspace. Nevertheless, the FAA has forged NEXT low-Earth-orbit satellites, providing a surveillance A tower controller monitored ahead with what it calls its “preferred” AA a display with ADS-B aircraft method of surveillance. targets at Asheville Regional 600 Data from aircraft broadcasting by CLASS A ADS-B 1090 ES Required Airport in North Carolina. ADS-B is fused on controller displays 18000 MS 2500 AG with available information from prima- ADS-B Not Reuired ry radars, secondary surveillance radars CLASS E 10000 MS and aoe ADS-B Required (SSR) and multilateration stations. “The public health emergency defi - CLASS E

AA S nitely is changing our environment ADS-B Required Bill Carey Washington every day,” says Ammyanna Williams, CLASS B FAA surveillance and broadcast ser- 10000 MS CLASS C 3000 MS ADS-B ADS-B anuary marked a milestone in the FAA’s implemen- vices group manager. “The environ- Required Required Mode C Veil tation of automatic dependent surveillance-broad- ment is so fl uid, we are not drawing 2 nm From 10000 MS 10000 MS oastline Surace Surace cast, a core program of the agency’s long-running any conclusions and are evaluating ADS-B J Required 30 nm NextGen modernization that complements radar with a sat- [the system] over time, but ADS-B is Gul o Mexico ellite-based method of tracking aircraft, providing greater providing support as usual. Our per- 10000 MS Surace overall coverage, better accuracy and higher update rates. formance has not changed because of AG Aoe Ground eel light eel MS Mean Sea eel nm Nautical Miles As of Jan. 1, the FAA required that aircraft fl ying in most the health emergency.” U.S.-controlled airspace be equipped with transponders that The implementation of the ADS-B surveillance layer has Aircraft must transmit by ADS-B Out in these airspace continuously broadcast their GPS-derived position and provided the FAA with one benefi t it can quantify: the op- classes, including in Class B and Class C airspace sur- identity to ground controllers, the function called automatic portunity to assess its existing radar “footprint” and remove rounding large and smaller airports. dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) Out. radars in overlapping areas where they are no longer need- The ADS-B ground infrastructure of 658 nationwide ra- ed. Between fi scal 2020-25, the agency plans to divest 14% of capability over oceanic tracts and remote areas outside dio sites, owned and operated by L3Harris Technologies for Controller displays fuse data from di erent surveillance terminal-area radars in the national airspace system (NAS), the range of terrestrial ADS-B and radar systems. Until the FAA, was completed in 2014. The FAA has integrated sensors. Aircraft that are not transmitting by ADS-B are which it estimates will save $400 million in operating, main- the Aireon system entered service in March 2019, control- the system at 24 en route air tra” c control (ATC) facilities tagged with a white circle preceding the call sign. In this tenance and sustainment costs through 2035. lers applied procedural separations based on intermittent, and 155 terminal radar approach control (Tracon) facilities . photo, N1634F is equipped with ADS-B, while N1173X is not. Most radar sites are collocated primary and SSR facili- satellite-routed position reports to keep aircraft safely In October 2019, the FAA said it had started using the ties, and one or both radar types could be retired depending apart in such regions. surveillance system at the last two of 155 airports to re- far, as indicated by the number of “ADS-B aircraft detected.” on a safety analysis. Safety and the ability to provide con- The FAA is evaluating “space-based” ADS-B as a gap-fi ll- ceive ADS-B: Akron-Canton Airport and Mansfi eld Lahm That fi gure, tracked by an ADS-B Performance Monitor tinuity of air tra— c services in the areas served by radars ing capability in oceanic airspace and potentially in remote Regional Airport, both in Ohio. at the FAA Technical Center near Atlantic City, New Jer- will be “heavily looked at” in decisions to divest radars, an areas where the installation of ground infrastructure is Then this year, the COVID-19 pandemic struck. President sey, represents the number of aircraft transmitting unique FAA program executive says. cost-prohibitive. This could eventually lead to reduced air- Donald Trump declared a national emergency on March 13, 24-bit International Civil Aviation Organization addresses In addition to the ADS-B equipage requirement that en- craft separations in FAA-controlled oceanic airspace. and four days later the FAA announced the fi rst temporary to ground stations during the past two years. tered force in January, this year was also a pivotal year for “If the technology proves to be viable, space-based ADS-B closure of an ATC facility—the tower at Chicago Midway As of June 1, the FAA had detected 126,825 aircraft that the FAA’s plan to close aircraft separations to 3 nm from can fi ll that gap [in oceanic airspace],” Williams says. Based International Airport—after multiple technicians there comply with ADS-B Out requirements. Of these, 105,247 5 nm in en route airspace, taking advantage of the system’s on the fi ndings of the Caribbean evaluation, “we will make tested positive for the coronavirus. were general aviation (GA) fi xed-wing, experimental and once-per-second update rate. the appropriate recommendations on whether or not to The agency listed 50 ATC facilities that have been light-sport aircraft and helicopters ; 6,553 were airliners. The FAA has started applying 3-nm separations in the sustain an operational capability in the existing airspace aŸ ected by the virus as of June 1. The balance of 15,025 aircraft were counted as ADS-B- Boston and Seattle areas, the fi rst key sites of a planned following conclusion of the one-year evaluation,” she says. The suppression of air travel caused by the pandemic must equipped but not revealed to the public by category, in- nationwide expansion of the tighter separation standard The FAA plans to conduct additional evaluations of space- be considered in gauging the readiness of tens of thousands cluding U.S. military and government special-use aircraft, over the next two years. Controllers apply the separations based ADS-B in oceanic airspace around Bermuda, some of aircraft operators for the ADS-B equipage mandate. But gliders and drones. at Flight Level 230 (23,000 ft.), the point at which air route small Pacifi c Ocean islands and Shemya, in the Alaskan the FAA says it is pleased with the levels of compliance thus Under the equipment mandate, aircraft flying above tra— c control centers (ARTCC) hand oª aircraft to Tracons. Aleutian Islands chain, Williams says. c

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 4 BUSINESS AVIATION FACE TO FACE: POINT TO POINT

OPTIMISTIC > Increased demand for private aviation boosts aircraft use and sales > Demand for commercial pilots returns as airlines recover > Helicopter market recovers as oil prices increase

Graham Warwick Washington Business and general aviation have seen down- turns more than once before. As private fl ying shows the fi rst signs of recovery from the blow struck by COVID-19, many in the industry think this time around could be di erent. The forces acting on the market through the novel coronavirus pandemic are complex, but there are reasons to hope that, for some sectors at least, the SIR AIR SIR

MANUFACTURERS Charter operators are emphasizing health checks and Business aviation was an industry in transition as it entered cleaning programs to keep crews and sta safe while 2020. The sector never fully recovered from its downturn helping passengers feel comfortable. after the 2009 fi nancial crisis. Manufacturers rationalized production and refreshed product lines in response. But for a market that grew giddily in the fi rst years of the new century, development on hold until aviation recovers. only to crash, fl at had become the new normal. Bombardier says its aerospace divestitures remain on COVID-19 has triggered another downturn, but the indus- track to close this year, shoring up a balance sheet hit by a try believes the market will recover and may actually benefi t $600-800 million fi rst-quarter cash drain due to COVID-19. in the aftermath of the pandemic. The factors behind the But the sell-o­ will leave it as the only business jet maker collapse of 2009—irrational exuberance, overproduction, with no countervailing defense business. “That, I think, puts wealth destruction and stigmatization—are not present this them in a vulnerable place,” says Richard Aboulafi a, vice time, say market watchers. president of analysis at the Teal Group. Despite that downturn, the industry did not consolidate The immediate e­ ect of the pandemic was an inability to as many hoped it would. Entering 2020, nine manufacturers hand aircraft over to customers because of travel restric- were chasing a market for 700-800 aircraft a year with 43 dif- tions. Gulfstream was unable to deliver 13 aircraft in the ferent models. Bombardier was exiting commercial aircraft fi rst quarter but pulled forward two from the second quarter and selling its rail business to focus on business aviation. to end the period 11 aircraft down at 23 , Phebe Novakovic , Embraer, meanwhile, was carving out its commercial CEO of parent General Dynamics, told analysts on April 29. aircraft business in anticipation of a joint venture with Travel restrictions kept sales teams locked down, so man- Boeing. But Boeing pulled out of the $4.2 billion deal in ufacturers also reported a drop in orders for the fi rst quar- April, forcing the Brazilian manufacturer to reintegrate ter. But cancellations were few. Novakovic said Gulfstream the businesses, focus on conserving cash and put product saw four customers cancel or default, three of which are

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST BUSINESS AVIATION

Gulfstream’s reduced output this year will be driven “al- most exclusively” by supply-chain issues, she said. “Some of our suppliers entered this crisis somewhat impaired both from exposure to the commercial aviation market FACE TO FACE: and some fi nancial di“ culties.” They were having di“ culty keeping up with the original production rate, and the crisis exacerbated this, she said. “Many members have reported how government travel and other restrictions have impacted their operations, sup- POINT TO POINT ply chain and deliveries, and how they are responding to these issues,” the General Aviation Manufacturers Associa- tion tells Aviation Week, noting the aviation supply chain en- compasses tens of thousands of suppliers around the world. OPTIMISTIC NEUTRAL PESSIMISTIC Lost deliveries and sales, production interruptions and > Increased demand for > Business aircraft deliveries > Economic depression supplier issues are expected to cut business-jet deliveries private aviation boosts return to pre-COVID-19 levels reduces business aircraft by 30% or more in 2020, analysts at JPMorgan predict . “And aircraft use and sales in 2021 demand for 3+ years while we assume a rebound in 2021, that leaves deliveries only about 15% below 2019,” the JPMorgan analysts add. > Demand for commercial > International pilot training > Slow airline recovery pilots returns as airlines picks up as travel keeps a large number of “We do see downside risk.” That risk includes the impact on recover restrictions lift pilots furloughed the market of the recession following the pandemic. Anticipating lower demand because of a global eco- > Helicopter market recovers > Oil prices rally enough to > Persistently low oil prices nomic slowdown, analysts at Ješ eries forecast 40% fewer as oil prices increase sustain helicopter demand collapse helicopter demand deliveries this year.

OPERATIONS Graham Warwick Washington Business aviation activity has started to recover as travel restrictions are eased. After a fl urry of activity in March Business and general aviation have seen down- recovery will be faster and stronger than for com- fl ying owners and customers home to safety, fl ights in April fell by more than 70% from a year earlier. The biggest turns more than once before. As private fl ying shows mercial aviation. drops—more than 80%—were in fractional and large jet the fi rst signs of recovery from the blow struck by “Private aviation has always been the fi rst into a activity, reports Argus. COVID-19, many in the industry think this time recession and the last one out,” says Ian Moore, chief By mid-May, business aviation fl ights were down year-on- year by only 58%, a resilience that contrasts with the 85% around could be di erent. commercial o cer of fl eet operator . “I think drop in global scheduled airline activity, says WingX Ad- The forces acting on the market through the novel what’s happened means we could be the fi rst one out, vance. But the impact of the crisis has been severe. A survey coronavirus pandemic are complex, but there are just due to the unique nature of the virus and the way by the European Business Aviation Association of member company CEOs revealed fi nancial losses of 50-90% during reasons to hope that, for some sectors at least, the people will travel in the future.” the crisis, says Secretary General Athar Husain Khan. SIR AIR SIR Plummeting activity also hit fi xed-base operators (FBO) and airports. Fuel sales collapsed. “The market just fell oš MANUFACTURERS Charter operators are emphasizing health checks and expected to come back. Bombardier lost some deliveries but a cliš . FBOs dropped to pumping 2% of what they were Business aviation was an industry in transition as it entered cleaning programs to keep crews and sta safe while “we haven’t seen much cancellation,” new CEO Eric Martel doing,” says Ryan Waguespack, senior vice president of the 2020. The sector never fully recovered from its downturn helping passengers feel comfortable. told analysts on May 7. U.S. National Air Transportation Association (NATA). “In after the 2009 fi nancial crisis. Manufacturers rationalized Textron Aviation was hit by fractional operator and biggest the last two weeks, we’ve seen more activity by the Part 135 production and refreshed product lines in response. But for a customer NetJets’ decision to take only 25 aircraft this year, operators and the FBOs.” market that grew giddily in the fi rst years of the new century, development on hold until aviation recovers. down from 60. “Their sales force saw the same thing we saw, Activity is a key indicator of the health of business avi- only to crash, fl at had become the new normal. Bombardier says its aerospace divestitures remain on which was people stopped as the pandemic hit,” Textron CEO ation, but only one of them. Gross domestic product and COVID-19 has triggered another downturn, but the indus- track to close this year, shoring up a balance sheet hit by a Scott Donnelly told analysts on May 2. NetJets will continue corporate profi ts are also strong signals of demand. The try believes the market will recover and may actually benefi t $600-800 million fi rst-quarter cash drain due to COVID-19. to take Cessna Citation Latitudes and Longitudes for which global economy is projected to contract by 3% in 2020, a in the aftermath of the pandemic. The factors behind the But the sell-o­ will leave it as the only business jet maker it has customer commitments, he said. far worse outcome than during the 2008-09 fi nancial crisis, collapse of 2009—irrational exuberance, overproduction, with no countervailing defense business. “That, I think, puts Output was also hit by factory closures as COVID-19 says the International Monetary Fund. “The global economy wealth destruction and stigmatization—are not present this them in a vulnerable place,” says Richard Aboulafi a, vice spread. Textron announced furloughs starting March 23 and is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2021 as economic activity time, say market watchers. president of analysis at the Teal Group. extended them through May 29. Bombardier plants in Can- normalizes,” the IMF adds. “The risks for even more severe Despite that downturn, the industry did not consolidate The immediate e­ ect of the pandemic was an inability to ada, Northern Ireland and Mexico shut down in March and outcomes, however, are substantial.” as many hoped it would. Entering 2020, nine manufacturers hand aircraft over to customers because of travel restric- began to reopen in early May with new health and safety pre- The correlation between corporate profi ts and aircraft were chasing a market for 700-800 aircraft a year with 43 dif- tions. Gulfstream was unable to deliver 13 aircraft in the cautions in place—“a tremendous undertaking,” said Martel. demand is strong, but it has weakened since the 2009 re- ferent models. Bombardier was exiting commercial aircraft fi rst quarter but pulled forward two from the second quarter As production restarts, manufacturers are seeing weak- cession for several reasons, say the JPMorgan analysts. and selling its rail business to focus on business aviation. to end the period 11 aircraft down at 23 , Phebe Novakovic , nesses in the supply chain, particularly among suppliers also Among the reasons is the stigma that became attached to Embraer, meanwhile, was carving out its commercial CEO of parent General Dynamics, told analysts on April 29. hurt by the disruption to commercial aircraft OEMs. “Hope- business jets. “We expect corporate profi ts to remain one aircraft business in anticipation of a joint venture with Travel restrictions kept sales teams locked down, so man- fully, we can sort our way through these issues, but some of determinant of business-jet deliveries. As such, COVID-19 Boeing. But Boeing pulled out of the $4.2 billion deal in ufacturers also reported a drop in orders for the fi rst quar- them are di“ cult,” Novakovic said. “We are working closely presents a great risk in the foreseeable future, with expect- April, forcing the Brazilian manufacturer to reintegrate ter. But cancellations were few. Novakovic said Gulfstream with them to provide on-site mitigation and support where ed profi t decline and reduced wealth, though it is unclear the businesses, focus on conserving cash and put product saw four customers cancel or default, three of which are we can and, ultimately, if we have to bring it in-house we will.” how tight the relationship will be going forward,” they say.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 4 BUSINESS AVIATION

Another indicator of market health is used aircraft. A glut know people are interested in using private aviation. And of young, pre-owned jets, almost 20% of the fleet, helped many of them are doing it for the very first time.” steepen the 2009 downturn by competing with new aircraft COVID-19 could also change how existing operators view for sales. In May 2020, 1,823 pre-owned aircraft were avail- their aircraft. Asked by a customer whether other compa- able for sale, up 4% from a year earlier, according to Jeffries nies with large flight departments were considering relaxing analysts. That represented 7.7% of the total worldwide air- policies on personal use to protect executives, Guardian Jet craft fleet, well below the historical average of 12%. Average asked around. “No one’s really talking about that, not yet. list prices were down 12% year-over-year. But the overriding theme was discussions with their com- The 2009 recession resulted in a bifurcation of the busi- pany about use of the corporate aircraft going deeper into ness-jet market: large-cabin demand continuing to grow the corporation,” Dwyer tells Aviation Week. while sales of small and medium aircraft fell. Coming out of Interest in charter and other channels is running concur- COVID-19, there is concern it could be the lucrative large-air- rently, he says. “The common denominator is: ‘I have to trav- craft market that suffers this time around. According to Jeffries analysts, the number of used heavy jets for sale was up 13% in May year-over-year, while light jet inventories were flat. The reason for the trend is low oil prices. “There is a pret- ty clear correlation between energy prices and large-cabin business-jet demand, principally because an enormous part of this market is either energy extraction corporations or high-net-worth individuals and businesses dependent on resources for their economy,” the Teal Group’s Aboulafia told an April webinar by the International Aircraft Dealers Association (IADA). “We need a recovery in oil prices.”

RECOVERY One unknown factor in any recovery scenario is the ex- tent, if any, to which post-pandemic health concerns will lead businesses to look at private aviation as a safer way to move executives and employees around—not only for health reasons but to provide more convenient point-to-point con- nections as the hard-hit commercial airlines slowly rebuild their networks. “One of the outcomes that could occur as a result of this DASSAULT AVIATION particular crisis is that businesses can ill afford to rely on el, and I’d like to have more control over it.’ I think charter those commercial airline providers who are either finan- and fractional could be the big winners, but right now it is cially weak or unpredictable,” said GD’s Novakovic. “So the interesting that almost every corporation we talked to said fundamental case for business aviation remains the same, they were considering using their airplanes more, not less.” if not somewhat strengthened by this crisis.” Big flight departments have been reducing in size for the past Any trend in this direction is expected to manifest first five years. “This could slow that down,” he says. in demand for charter flights, then membership programs With charters likely to become the first beneficiary, there such as Wheels Up and on through jet cards and fraction- comes a challenge. Illegal charters were already a safety al shares offered by NetJets and others for used and new issue before the pandemic. With a surplus of furloughed whole-aircraft ownership. pilots and distressed aircraft owners post-COVID-19, there Citing discussions with NetJets and Wheels Up, is an increased risk of questionable flights offered at a frac- Textron’s Donnelly told analysts: “It’s anecdotal at this tion of the cost of legal charters, NATA’s Waguespack says. point, but there’s reason to have some optimism around “The FAA has done a good job in tightening up. Some risk the fact that we’re seeing a lot of activity through those might be there, but they have the skills to deal with it,” says channels that are new folks potentially coming into the IADA’s Starling. business-aviation industry.” The market is already responding with ways to make pri- Aircraft brokers and charter companies are seeing a jump vate aviation more accessible. MemberJets has launched a in inquiries. “Charter operator sales departments are field- software platform making it easier for Part 135 operators ing call after call, the same way we’re getting an increase in to offer public charters on a per-seat basis. The program new buyers that have not owned an airplane but are inter- provides “instant access” to MemberJets’ existing Part ested in how much it costs to own and operate one,” says 380 approval, allowing the operator to “take a flight, adver- Don Dwyer, co-managing partner at broker Guardian Jet. tise it as a scheduled flight and sell by the seat,” says CEO “I’ve talked to different companies offering travel cards Ty Carter. for charter and their activity is [through] the roof,” Wayne With about 170 aircraft already in its prospectus, Starling, IADA executive director, tells Aviation Week. MemberJets provides the booking engine, surety bond and “NetJets’ card sales are up tremendously.” NetJets and escrow account that allow operators to create public char- Wheels Up declined to comment. ters “on the go” for shuttle services or special-event flights. “The number of flight inquiries that we’ve received is The program also allows jet-card holders to share flights higher than last year,” Adam Twidell, CEO of UK-based on- with other members. “COVID-19 offers an opportunity to line charter broker PrivateFly, tells Aviation Week. “So we step up and fill a new void,” Carter tells Aviation Week.

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST BUSINESS AVIATION

Another indicator of market health is used aircraft. A glut know people are interested in using private aviation. And Funding from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Econom- alized they might be called on as part of the emergency infra- of young, pre-owned jets, almost 20% of the fleet, helped many of them are doing it for the very first time.” ic Security Act has helped private aviation weather the structure for the system,” Rockmaker says. Some state and steepen the 2009 downturn by competing with new aircraft COVID-19 could also change how existing operators view pandemic. Few casualties are expected, Waguespack says, local governments tried to shut down schools, but reversed for sales. In May 2020, 1,823 pre-owned aircraft were avail- their aircraft. Asked by a customer whether other compa- although U.S. operator JetSuite filed for bankruptcy protec- their decisions when faced with the CISA guidance, he adds. able for sale, up 4% from a year earlier, according to Jeffries nies with large flight departments were considering relaxing tion in April citing slumping charter demand. Consolidation By mid-May, more schools were reopening. “By the end analysts. That represented 7.7% of the total worldwide air- policies on personal use to protect executives, Guardian Jet of the fragmented charter market is expected. of June, I suspect that just about every flight school is go- craft fleet, well below the historical average of 12%. Average asked around. “No one’s really talking about that, not yet. “This is a moment when the private jet user will want ing to be back operating,” Rockmaker says. But there will list prices were down 12% year-over-year. But the overriding theme was discussions with their com- to rely on someone who’s been there for a while,” Twidell be casualties. “There are some flight schools that are not The 2009 recession resulted in a bifurcation of the busi- pany about use of the corporate aircraft going deeper into says. “For a smaller player in the industry, it’s going to be going to make it.” ness-jet market: large-cabin demand continuing to grow the corporation,” Dwyer tells Aviation Week. increasingly hard.” Twidell describes this as an “excellent The industry last contracted after the terror attacks of- while sales of small and medium aircraft fell. Coming out of Interest in charter and other channels is running concur- time” to be acquired, as PrivateFly was by private-jet travel Sept. 11, 2001, and the repercussions of the terrorists having COVID-19, there is concern it could be the lucrative large-air- rently, he says. “The common denominator is: ‘I have to trav- leader Directional Aviation. trained at U.S. flight schools. “Prior to the terror attacks, we craft market that suffers this time around. According to had about 2,400 flight schools in the U.S.,” he says. “After the Jeffries analysts, the number of used heavy jets for sale was up terror attacks and things settled down, we ended up with 13% in May year-over-year, while light jet inventories were flat. 1,600 before COVID. The reason for the trend is low oil prices. “There is a pret- “After COVID, I’m estimating we’re going to lose any- ty clear correlation between energy prices and large-cabin where from 25-30 on the low side to [as many as] 100-125. business-jet demand, principally because an enormous part There will also be new schools starting up, but I suspect of this market is either energy extraction corporations or there will be a net loss over the next 6-12 months. It’s nev- high-net-worth individuals and businesses dependent on er okay to see somebody close, but it’s about quality, not resources for their economy,” the Teal Group’s Aboulafia quantity.”. told an April webinar by the International Aircraft Dealers Rockmaker thinks demand for training aircraft will re- Association (IADA). “We need a recovery in oil prices.” main steady because the average age of the U.S. fleet is over 25 years. “We are seeing more schools thinking about their RECOVERY aircraft fleets: what they need versus what they can justify,” One unknown factor in any recovery scenario is the ex- he says, and FSANA is working to bring cheaper light sport tent, if any, to which post-pandemic health concerns will aircraft to the training market. lead businesses to look at private aviation as a safer way to Maintenance training has also been affected, although move executives and employees around—not only for health Business aviation activity in Europe began to recover in the U.S. the FAA moved quickly to allow flexibility to reasons but to provide more convenient point-to-point con- in May, but a significant fraction of the flights were temporarily provide content online, says Crystal Maguire, nections as the hard-hit commercial airlines slowly rebuild COVID-19-related medical missions. executive director of the Aviation Technician Education their networks. Council (ATEC). “One of the outcomes that could occur as a result of this DASSAULT AVIATION Only a handful of Part 147 maintenance-technician particular crisis is that businesses can ill afford to rely on el, and I’d like to have more control over it.’ I think charter As they emerge from lockdown, operators have introduced schools provided online training before the crisis. Now 75% those commercial airline providers who are either finan- and fractional could be the big winners, but right now it is health checks and cleaning programs throughout the flight of ATEC’s 181 members have approval for online delivery, cially weak or unpredictable,” said GD’s Novakovic. “So the interesting that almost every corporation we talked to said process. NATA is also promulgating standards to ensure pi- although content is restricted. Completing hands-on lab fundamental case for business aviation remains the same, they were considering using their airplanes more, not less.” lots and ground staff are safe and that passengers feel com- work required for certification is still an issue. if not somewhat strengthened by this crisis.” Big flight departments have been reducing in size for the past fortable flying. “We have an opportunity to capture more But the remainder of ATEC’s member schools have sus- Any trend in this direction is expected to manifest first five years. “This could slow that down,” he says. market,” Waguespack says. pended training, which will affect output, Maguire said on a in demand for charter flights, then membership programs With charters likely to become the first beneficiary, there Helicopter Association International (HAI) webinar in mid- such as Wheels Up and on through jet cards and fraction- comes a challenge. Illegal charters were already a safety FLIGHT TRAINING May. A survey of members concluded that output of trained al shares offered by NetJets and others for used and new issue before the pandemic. With a surplus of furloughed Entering 2020, the flight-training industry was in growth mechanics will decrease 25% this year, while enrollment is whole-aircraft ownership. pilots and distressed aircraft owners post-COVID-19, there mode, with demand for commercial crews fueled by airline expected to drop 28%. Citing discussions with NetJets and Wheels Up, is an increased risk of questionable flights offered at a frac- growth, pilot retirements and higher flight experience re- Even as the industry restarts, demand for commercial Textron’s Donnelly told analysts: “It’s anecdotal at this tion of the cost of legal charters, NATA’s Waguespack says. quirements. That growth had helped push deliveries of pis- training is expected to decrease. While U.S. airline pilot point, but there’s reason to have some optimism around “The FAA has done a good job in tightening up. Some risk ton-powered aircraft to 1,324 in 2019 from their recent low groups still hope furloughs can be minimized, “there’s the fact that we’re seeing a lot of activity through those might be there, but they have the skills to deal with it,” says of 889 in 2010. not a need for a lot of pilots right now,” acknowledges channels that are new folks potentially coming into the IADA’s Starling. “The flight-training industry in America for sure has Rockmaker. “To come back to where it was before COVID, business-aviation industry.” The market is already responding with ways to make pri- been on a growth path,” says Robert Rockmaker, president it could take 8-12 months at the earliest. It could go out as Aircraft brokers and charter companies are seeing a jump vate aviation more accessible. MemberJets has launched a and CEO of the Flight School Association of North Amer- far as 24-36 months.” in inquiries. “Charter operator sales departments are field- software platform making it easier for Part 135 operators ica (FSANA). “The ‘zero to hero’ career training pathway Continued restrictions on international travel are one ing call after call, the same way we’re getting an increase in to offer public charters on a per-seat basis. The program has been serious in its growth over the past several years.” reason a recovery may take longer. Up until the pandemic new buyers that have not owned an airplane but are inter- provides “instant access” to MemberJets’ existing Part When COVID-19 struck, a majority of U.S. flight schools hit, more than 50% of flight students in the U.S. were from ested in how much it costs to own and operate one,” says 380 approval, allowing the operator to “take a flight, adver- shut their doors. But not all of them. “Approximately overseas. As training resumes and schools follow guidelines Don Dwyer, co-managing partner at broker Guardian Jet. tise it as a scheduled flight and sell by the seat,” says CEO 35-40% of the flight schools stayed open,” Rockmaker tells for temperature screening of staff and customers, the issue “I’ve talked to different companies offering travel cards Ty Carter. Aviation Week. “They were operating at much lower levels, arises of what happens if a foreign student tests positive. “I for charter and their activity is [through] the roof,” Wayne With about 170 aircraft already in its prospectus, but they were operating.” don’t have that answer,” Rockmaker admits. Starling, IADA executive director, tells Aviation Week. MemberJets provides the booking engine, surety bond and There was confusion initially over whether flight schools “NetJets’ card sales are up tremendously.” NetJets and escrow account that allow operators to create public char- were considered essential infrastructure, until the Cyber- HELICOPTERS Wheels Up declined to comment. ters “on the go” for shuttle services or special-event flights. security and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) specifi- The commercial helicopter industry was locked in a down- “The number of flight inquiries that we’ve received is The program also allows jet-card holders to share flights cally listed flight instructors as essential workers supporting turn even before the COVID-19 crisis. Deliveries fell again higher than last year,” Adam Twidell, CEO of UK-based on- with other members. “COVID-19 offers an opportunity to air transportation. in 2019, to a low of 640 turbine helicopters from the high line charter broker PrivateFly, tells Aviation Week. “So we step up and fill a new void,” Carter tells Aviation Week. “Some schools reopened as they became educated and re- of 1,111 in 2013. Deliveries of piston helicopters, which had

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 51 BUSINESS AVIATION

been boosted by demand for training, also declined in 2019. chine is in good shape, as if their own pilots had tested it,” The reason for the market’s stubborn stagnation was Profumo said. But Leonardo does not expect any significant the price of oil, which fell from highs beyond $100 a barrel speed-up in deliveries into June. in 2012-14 to just above $60 by January 2020 because of Bell had not seen any cancellations, Donnelly, CEO of Bell’s overproduction. Energy companies cut back on exploration parent Textron, told analysts on April 30. Parapublic and in- and production, reducing demand for air transportation and ternational sales “are largely holding up” and this diversified idling helicopter fleets. set of markets is expected to be more resilient, he said. But Oil prices continued to fall, and in April producers private and corporate sales are likely to be “a little softer.” agreed to a record cut in global output. But the pandemic Airbus expects civil and parapublic helicopter demand to lockdown destroyed demand, and prices fell to negative remain soft in 2020, “particularly in oil and gas, mainly due numbers for the first time in history in April. The Interna- to very low oil prices,” CEO Guillaume Faury told analysts tional Energy Agency is forecasting global energy demand on April 29. But Airbus, like Bell and Leonardo, is being will fall 6% in 2020, seven times the decline after the 2009 cushioned by continued demand for military helicopters. financial crisis. Profumo said Leonardo had not seen any major effect from record-low oil prices, but that is largely because it is delivering on an order for 21 AW139s from Saudi Aramco. Bell is less exposed. “We don’t do a lot of the big offshore stuff. It’s the Gulf. It’s nearshore operations, which I think are more likely to hang in there,” said Donnelly.

Helicopters were quickly modified and pressed into service transporting COVID-19 patients to intensive care units.

“I think it’s safe to say you’re not going to see a whole lot of deepwater, big-dollar investments to get at some of the more expensive oil,” Donnelly said. But energy companies put limits on the age of aircraft used, which could backstop demand. “People are still producing, and they are still going to have to run their operations,” he said.

THE FUTURE AIRBUS General aviation entered the new decade with several in- Manufacturers worry about sales of medium and heavy novations in prospect, ranging from autonomy and electri- helicopters when oil falls below $50 a barrel, aviation consul- fication to operating delivery drones and air taxis. Many tants JSfirm told an April 23 HAI webinar. The U.S. Energy of these advances were being led by startups funded by Information Administration forecasts the benchmark Brent venture capital. But the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed crude price will average $34 a barrel in 2020, down from $64 dealmaking and the booming fundraising market could ex- in 2019, and recover to $48 in 2021. perience its first serious decline since the 2009 economic Offshore operator CHC Helicopter expects a 20-30% re- crisis, says private equity analyst Pitchbook. duction in flight hours this year. “And that’s going to have Results so far have been mixed. Deals continue to be an- a material impact, not only on ourselves but on the whole nounced, but most were closed before COVID-19 hit. Perhaps supply chain,” President and CEO David Balevic told a Ver- the biggest impact has been the interruption of flight testing, tical Flight Society (VFS) webinar on May 28. “Everything with developers of technologies ranging from advanced flight is going to change as the supply chain starts to contract and controls and unmanned cargo aircraft to electric propulsion focus on its resilience and its liquidity.” unable to fly because of the lockdown. In addition to halting exploration activity because of falling But many of the new technologies are software-intensive, prices, energy companies reduced manning on offshore plat- and several startups report they have been able to continue forms as COVID-19 hit to keep crews safe. This scaling down with software development and simulation testing—work is not sustainable, and transport flights are resuming, Tony that may speed progress once flying can resume. Skyryse Cramp, Shell vice president for aviation, told the webinar. and Xwing, startups developing advanced control and auton- But the pandemic keeps spreading. “ is the next big omous flight systems for retrofit to general-aviation aircraft concern for us. It’s almost a tinderbox,” Balevic said. and helicopters, say they have been able to maintain good The immediate impact on manufacturers came from trav- progress in certification discussions with the FAA via web el restrictions. Leonardo lost seven deliveries in the first conferencing. quarter, mainly AW139s, because customers did not want The pandemic may actually have accelerated the market to travel to pandemic-striken northern Italy to pick up their for delivery drones, with several companies stepping up ser- machines, CEO Alessandro Profumo told analysts on May 7. vice in response to the COVID-19 crisis. In April, Alphabet Bell delivered 15 commercial helicopters in the first quarter, subsidiary Wing said the outbreak had driven a significant down from 30 a year earlier, because of customers’ inability increase in use of its drone delivery service in Virginia. Also to accept aircraft. in April, Flytrex began delivering groceries from a Walmart Leonardo is shifting to “smart deliveries,” digitally trans- to backyards in Grand Forks, North Dakota. ferring all data to customers from final company testing of In May, UPS Flight Forward (UPSFF) began delivering the aircraft. “That makes them comfortable that the ma- prescription medicines from a pharmacy to a retirement

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST BUSINESS AVIATION been boosted by demand for training, also declined in 2019. chine is in good shape, as if their own pilots had tested it,” community in Florida using Matternet drones. The North GLOBAL JET The reason for the market’s stubborn stagnation was Profumo said. But Leonardo does not expect any significant Carolina Department of Transportation also launched three the price of oil, which fell from highs beyond $100 a barrel speed-up in deliveries into June. projects to use drones to aid COVID-19 relief efforts: Zipline in 2012-14 to just above $60 by January 2020 because of Bell had not seen any cancellations, Donnelly, CEO of Bell’s delivering protective equipment and medical supplies to overproduction. Energy companies cut back on exploration parent Textron, told analysts on April 30. Parapublic and in- Novant Health campuses in Charlotte; UPSFF flying equip- and production, reducing demand for air transportation and ternational sales “are largely holding up” and this diversified ment and medicine for a hospital in Winston-Salem; and idling helicopter fleets. set of markets is expected to be more resilient, he said. But Flytrex carrying food to homes in Holly Springs. Oil prices continued to fall, and in April producers private and corporate sales are likely to be “a little softer.” These expanded operations are being conducted under the agreed to a record cut in global output. But the pandemic Airbus expects civil and parapublic helicopter demand to FAA’s unmanned aircraft Integration Pilot Program. This in- lockdown destroyed demand, and prices fell to negative remain soft in 2020, “particularly in oil and gas, mainly due cludes package delivery by drone through Part 135 air carrier numbers for the first time in history in April. The Interna- to very low oil prices,” CEO Guillaume Faury told analysts certification. So far the FAA has awarded Part 135 certificates tional Energy Agency is forecasting global energy demand on April 29. But Airbus, like Bell and Leonardo, is being for drone operations to Wing and UPSFF, with seven more will fall 6% in 2020, seven times the decline after the 2009 cushioned by continued demand for military helicopters. in the works, the agency says. COVID-19 relief drone flights financial crisis. Profumo said Leonardo had not seen any major effect are also being tested in the UK and elsewhere. from record-low oil prices, but that is largely because it is Another sector that was surging before COVID-19 hit delivering on an order for 21 AW139s from Saudi Aramco. was urban air mobility (UAM). Uber has yet to alter its Bell is less exposed. “We don’t do a lot of the big offshore plans to conduct test flights of an experimental electric stuff. It’s the Gulf. It’s nearshore operations, which I think vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) air taxi over a U.S. are more likely to hang in there,” said Donnelly. city this year, and begin commercial service in 2023, de - The business aviation industry is looking for signs that spite announcing cuts after its ride-hailing business took a passenger health concerns could boost private flying. Helicopters were quickly modified and pressed into service massive hit because of the pandemic. But most observers transporting COVID-19 patients to intensive care units. expect a delay. Startups continue to emerge, but more than a quarter of In a survey of the nascent eVTOL market, conducted by the respondents to VFS’ survey voiced significant concern “I think it’s safe to say you’re not going to see a whole lot VFS, more than half of respondents said COVID-19 had not about the long-term impact of COVID-19 because of chang- of deepwater, big-dollar investments to get at some of the affected their ability to meet near-term milestones. “It’s too es to underlying business assumptions. These include the more expensive oil,” Donnelly said. But energy companies small a sample size to draw any real conclusions, but it in- possibility that many people in previously congested cities put limits on the age of aircraft used, which could backstop dicates to us that these companies at least are managing who have been able to work from home will continue to do demand. “People are still producing, and they are still going the crisis,” says VFS Executive Director Mike Hirschberg. so even after the pandemic ends. c to have to run their operations,” he said.

THE FUTURE AIRBUS General aviation entered the new decade with several in- Manufacturers worry about sales of medium and heavy novations in prospect, ranging from autonomy and electri- helicopters when oil falls below $50 a barrel, aviation consul- fication to operating delivery drones and air taxis. Many tants JSfirm told an April 23 HAI webinar. The U.S. Energy of these advances were being led by startups funded by Information Administration forecasts the benchmark Brent venture capital. But the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed crude price will average $34 a barrel in 2020, down from $64 dealmaking and the booming fundraising market could ex- VIRTUAL in 2019, and recover to $48 in 2021. perience its first serious decline since the 2009 economic Offshore operator CHC Helicopter expects a 20-30% re- crisis, says private equity analyst Pitchbook. AUGUST 11-13, 2020 duction in flight hours this year. “And that’s going to have Results so far have been mixed. Deals continue to be an- a material impact, not only on ourselves but on the whole nounced, but most were closed before COVID-19 hit. Perhaps supply chain,” President and CEO David Balevic told a Ver- the biggest impact has been the interruption of flight testing, Aviation Week’s Virtual Global Networking and Learning tical Flight Society (VFS) webinar on May 28. “Everything with developers of technologies ranging from advanced flight Event for the Urban Air Mobility and eVTOL Communities. is going to change as the supply chain starts to contract and controls and unmanned cargo aircraft to electric propulsion focus on its resilience and its liquidity.” unable to fly because of the lockdown. An unprecedented level of collaboration is at work as our community enables a new era in aerospace. In addition to halting exploration activity because of falling But many of the new technologies are software-intensive, Join the best and brightest from across the global Urban Air Mobility sector. Network with suppliers prices, energy companies reduced manning on offshore plat- and several startups report they have been able to continue and access knowledge from industry leadership. forms as COVID-19 hit to keep crews safe. This scaling down with software development and simulation testing—work is not sustainable, and transport flights are resuming, Tony that may speed progress once flying can resume. Skyryse Cramp, Shell vice president for aviation, told the webinar. and Xwing, startups developing advanced control and auton- But the pandemic keeps spreading. “Brazil is the next big omous flight systems for retrofit to general-aviation aircraft concern for us. It’s almost a tinderbox,” Balevic said. and helicopters, say they have been able to maintain good The immediate impact on manufacturers came from trav- progress in certification discussions with the FAA via web el restrictions. Leonardo lost seven deliveries in the first conferencing. quarter, mainly AW139s, because customers did not want The pandemic may actually have accelerated the market to travel to pandemic-striken northern Italy to pick up their for delivery drones, with several companies stepping up ser- Live & On-Demand Virtual Meetings Source & Connect machines, CEO Alessandro Profumo told analysts on May 7. vice in response to the COVID-19 crisis. In April, Alphabet Educational Sessions & Networking with Industry Experts Bell delivered 15 commercial helicopters in the first quarter, subsidiary Wing said the outbreak had driven a significant down from 30 a year earlier, because of customers’ inability increase in use of its drone delivery service in Virginia. Also to accept aircraft. in April, Flytrex began delivering groceries from a Walmart Discover more uam.aviationweek.com Leonardo is shifting to “smart deliveries,” digitally trans- to backyards in Grand Forks, North Dakota. #AWUAM | ferring all data to customers from final company testing of In May, UPS Flight Forward (UPSFF) began delivering the aircraft. “That makes them comfortable that the ma- prescription medicines from a pharmacy to a retirement

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 53 L k y u AOG / c L k

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"Protect yourself, Socomore will protect your assets" ASK THE “There are exciting long-term op- EDITORS How To Keep Sustainable portunities with synthetic fuels such as ‘power to liquid,’” adds a spokes- Aviation Fuel Sustainable? man for the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), a lobbying group in L k y u AOG / c commercial aviation. The process uses sunlight as the power source to What is the maximum quantity of rials manufacturer Saint-Gobain) and convert CO2 from the air and water sustainable aviation fuel, as a per- economists (such as Nicholas Stern). into jet fuel. Challenges are the low L k centage of pre-COVID-19 worldwide But what about demand from other power density of sunlight and the sta- fleet consumption, that could be cre- sectors? Aviation should take priority, bility—as opposed to reactivity—of ated per year without adversely af- according to the ETC. As a matter of water and CO2. fecting food production or causing a fact, fossil liquid fuels—and their bio- ATAG sees sustainable aviation fuel negative environmental impact such fuel equivalents—are particularly as part of the solution, along with air- as deforestation? well-suited to aviation because of craft technology and operational im- their energy density. “Aviation is al- provements, for the industry to meet Aviation Week France Bureau Chief most the only sector of the economy its goal of halving CO2 emissions by Thierry Dubois responds: How much where . . . there appears to be no fea- 2050 from 2005 levels. But a tight defi- sustainable fuel will aviation need? sible alternative to a bio-based route nition of what constitutes a “sustain- The International Civil Aviation to achieve net-zero carbon emissions,” able biofuel” will have to be embedded UNITED AIRLINES

Organization estimates that about the ETC report says. Batteries and in any policy aiming at increasing bio- 600 million metric tons of jet fuel hydrogen are ill-suited because of fuel adoption in aviation. The nongov- will be necessary to cover all aviation their low energy density. ernmental environmental organiza- needs in 2050. This could require up The group sees a strong case for tion insists no crop-based to 45 exa joules (EJ, a unit of energy) treating aviation as the priority sector biofuel can be considered sustainable. of biomass input to biofuel production, for the predictably limited supply of “Advanced biofuels without a negative - given the relatively low efficiency of sustainable biofuel. However, the in- impact on the environment or the the transformation process. dustry cannot rely on developments right to food do not exist on a large - A sustainable biomass supply of in the road transport sector to drive scale,” says a Greenpeace spokesper- - 70 EJ could be produced each year, biofuel development and production son. “Clean fuels are an argument the - “possibly going up to 100 EJ, thanks volume—the onus is on aviation to industry has been increasingly using, to tightly regulated reforestation ef- create and foster a viable industry. A but they are a pipe dream.” c ------forts,” the Energy Transitions Com- key factor to sustainability is keeping mission (ETC) suggested in a No - the use of purpose-grown plants to vember 2018 report. So all aviation a minimum, as they would compete The Aviation Week Network invites demand in 2050 could be met by sus- with food production. Fuel should readers to submit questions to our tainable biofuel production, according be created primarily from waste editors. Answers are published online to the ETC, which is a lobbying group streams, says the ETC. A challenge at AviationWeek.com. To access our "Protect yourself, Socomore will protect your assets" representing energy producers (such then is to collect municipal, agricul- answer archive or post a new question, as Shell), energy users (such as mate- tural or forestry waste. go to: AviationWeek.com/asktheeditors

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56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 57 THOMAS LOHNES/GETTY IMAGES AVIATION 58 SPACE& WEEK TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 2020 15-28, events were being postponed, and for the our closed, were offices later,our week A texted. home,”she head to “Youwant may Control. Disease forU.S. Centers the at tor omi an received I when Hills Beverly in ference T editors answer questions posedby subscribers. You ■ recordings ofrecent ones. to findout which webinars are coming next andview ers since toAviationWeek.com/webinar mid-March. Go immensely popular, attracting 75,000 registered view editors anddata analysts.Thewebinars have proven try CEOs,analystsandAviation Week Network our readers tohearfrom andaskquestionsofindus- ■ make senseofthesecrazy include: times.Others new features we have created tohelpourreaders space industries. for key areas intheairtransport, defense, MRO and editors willbeproviding you withsimilaroutlooks the coronavirus crisis.In thecoming months,our simistic—into which thesectorcould emerge from out three scenarios—optimistic, neutral andpes- future ofbusinessandgeneral aviation andlays Warwick, itprovides adetailedexamination ofthe searched andwrittenby Executive EditorGraham feature, Flight Paths Forward (seepage 48).Re With thisissue, we present thefirst articleinanew tion andanswers aboutthisunprecedented crisis. working overtime toprovide readers withinforma- created aninsatiable demandfor information. almost uninterruptedprosperity for 15years. Italso to acommercial aircraft industrythat had seen demand for aircraft andservices. Itwas agutpunch ing airline travel toavirtualhaltandchokingoff saw coming, sendingcitiesintolockdown, bring North Americawithasuddennessandferocity few ing from theirhomes. first time ever, our entire staff was work Anew free, interactive webinar seriesthat allows AsktheEditors, adaily online feature where our Flight Paths Forward isjustthelatest ofseveral At Aviation Week, oureditorialteamhasbeen The COVID-19 crisisdescended onEurope and nous warning from a friend who is a doc- crowds at our dense SpeedNews suppliers con through way my navigating and hands of lots shaking was ago,I months hree Life After COVID-19 FROM THE EDITORTHE FROM - - - - - for years tocome. the ways inwhich COVID-19 willreshape ourindustry of theway tohelpyou understand what’s coming and more thantwo dozenreporters will behere every step coming monthswillbepainful.Butourglobal team of of thiscrisis.There isalongrecovery ahead, andthe defense OEMsandsuppliers. featuresin-depth onthefuture ofkey aerospace and cooperation, webinars, “Tech Talk” podcastsand generation fighter programs andEuropean defense with leading aerospace CEOs,updates onnext- package ofcontent online and inprint:interviews show of2020, we are planningtoroll outamassive would have beentheaviation industry’s biggest air quiet inJuly, butwe won’t be. To coincide withwhat paths toward agreener future ascompanies recover. industry more sustainablealsogoes on,highlighting page seriesonefforts 40).Our tomake the aviation pulsion, autonomy andadditive manufacturing (see ments infieldssuchas hypersonics, electricpro developonline andinprint,onpivotal technology See AviationWeek.com/Check6 two astronauts totheInternational Space Station. Space EditorIrene Klotztopreview thelaunchof SpaceX’s ElonMuskandGwynneShotwell joined May andendingthemonthonastrong notewhen strong, receiving more than60,000 downloads in and hiscolleagues. can findit at: AviationWeek.com/asktheeditors ■ Two newcolumns for analytical premium subscribers totheAviation Week Intelligence The aviation sectorisbeginningtoclaw itsway out ahead,Looking thetown ofFarnborough may be editorsOur alsowillcontinue toreport regularly, Meanwhile, ourCheck6podcastisstillgoing offered by AWIN fleet data. AndThe industry, includingdeepdives intoclues Weekly Debriefoffers insideanalysis the latest trends intheairtransport his teamprovide insightful looksat from Defense EditorSteve Trimble on militarytrends andtechnologies Executive EditorJens Flottauand Network (AWIN). In TheDailyMemo, c —Joe Anselmo, Editor-In-Chief AviationWeek.com/AWST

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ORGANIZED AND HOSTED BY: FROM THE EDITOR Life After COVID-19 71st hree months ago, I was shaking lots of hands can find it at: AviationWeek.com/asktheeditors and navigating my way through dense ■ Two new analytical columns for premium Tcrowds at our SpeedNews suppliers con- subscribers to the Aviation Week Intelligence ference in Beverly Hills when I received an Network (AWIN). In The Daily Memo, omi nous warning from a friend who is a doc- Executive Editor Jens Flottau and tor at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. his team provide insightful looks at st “You may want to head home,” she texted. the latest trends in the air transport 71 International A week later, our offices were closed, our industry, including deep dives into clues events were being postponed, and for the offered by AWIN fleet data. And The Astronautical first time ever, our entire staff was work- Weekly Debrief offers inside analysis ing from their homes. on military trends and technologies The COVID-19 crisis descended on Europe and from Defense Editor Steve Trimble Congress North America with a suddenness and ferocity few and his colleagues. saw coming, sending cities into lockdown, bring- Meanwhile, our Check 6 podcast is still going – The CyberSpace Edition ing airline travel to a virtual halt and choking off strong, receiving more than 60,000 downloads in demand for aircraft and services. It was a gut punch May and ending the month on a strong note when to a commercial aircraft industry that had seen SpaceX’s Elon Musk and joined almost uninterrupted prosperity for 15 years. It also Space Editor Irene Klotz to preview the launch of 12Ð14 October 2020 created an insatiable demand for information. two astronauts to the International Space Station. At Aviation Week, our editorial team has been See AviationWeek.com/Check6 working overtime to provide readers with informa- Our editors also will continue to report regularly, tion and answers about this unprecedented crisis. online and in print, on pivotal technology develop- he Internat onal Astronaut cal Federat on (IAF) is pleased to announce that the IAC 2020 will With this issue, we present the first article in a new ments in fields such as hypersonics, electric pro- Tbe hosted in a virtual format. The 71st Internati onal Astronauti cal Congress – The CyberSpace feature, Flight Paths Forward (see page 48). Re- pulsion, autonomy and additive manufacturing (see Editi on will take place in your homes and offi ces around the world on 12 – 14 October 2020 without searched and written by Executive Editor Graham page 40). Our series on efforts to make the aviation Warwick, it provides a detailed examination of the industry more sustainable also goes on, highlighting registrat on fee, free of charge for a global community. future of business and general aviation and lays paths toward a greener future as companies recover. out three scenarios—optimistic, neutral and pes- Looking ahead, the town of Farnborough may be In this challenging period, the IAF wants to make sure that everybody is safe but we also want to simistic—into which the sector could emerge from quiet in July, but we won’t be. To coincide with what ensure that our community stays engaged and connected. The Federat on has been support ng the the coronavirus crisis. In the coming months, our would have been the aviation industry’s biggest air space community for more than 70 years, and we will cont nue to do so also now. editors will be providing you with similar outlooks show of 2020, we are planning to roll out a massive for key areas in the air transport, defense, MRO and package of content online and in print: interviews Despite the challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the IAF is confi dent that humanity can space industries. with leading aerospace CEOs, updates on next- emerge from this crisis stronger than before and that together we will cont nue Flight Paths Forward is just the latest of several generation fighter programs and European defense to discover innovat ve and creat ve ideas on how to shape a global new features we have created to help our readers cooperation, webinars, “Tech Talk” podcasts and society with the help of space technologies for a bright future. make sense of these crazy times. Others include: in-depth features on the future of key aerospace and ■ A new free, interactive webinar series that allows defense OEMs and suppliers. Visit www.iafastro.org to fi nd out more and be part of the our readers to hear from and ask questions of indus- The aviation sector is beginning to claw its way out conversat on on #CYBERSPACEIAC2020 try CEOs, analysts and Aviation Week Network of this crisis. There is a long recovery ahead, and the editors and data analysts. The webinars have proven coming months will be painful. But our global team of immensely popular, attracting 75,000 registered view- more than two dozen reporters will be here every step IAF Connecting @ll Space People ers since mid-March. Go to AviationWeek.com/webinar of the way to help you understand what’s coming and the ways in which COVID-19 will reshape our industry to find out which webinars are coming next and view www.iac2020.org recordings of recent ones. for years to come. c ■ Ask the Editors, a daily online feature where our —Joe Anselmo, Editor-In-Chief SUPPORTED BY: THOMAS LOHNES/GETTY IMAGES editors answer questions posed by subscribers. You OFFICIAL MEDIA PARTNER:

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST