STARTS AFTER PAGE 30 Rebuilding Airline 3D Printing Networks From Scratch Gets Real ™ $14.95 JUNE 15-28, 2020
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DEPARTMENTS 5 | Feedback 11 | Leading Edge 22 6 | Who’s Where 56 | Classified NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, 7-8 | First Take 57 | Contact Us foreground, overseeing his first human 9 | Up Front 57 | Aerospace spaceflight, snares a selfie with Demo-2 10 | Going Concerns Calendar astronauts Robert Behnken, left, and Douglas Hurley inside the Kennedy Space Center Astronaut Crew Quarters —used for every NASA human spaceflight mission since the FEATURES 1960s. Credit: Kim Shiflett/NASA 12 | The Next Bomber? An “Arsenal Plane” emerges as a priority for the U.S. Air Force, but SPACE SUPPLY CHAIN an internal debate continues over 22 | NASA and SpaceX open a new 36 | Aerospace supply chain is due for the type of aircraft to use chapter in human spaceflight overhaul after COVID-19 14 | Fables of the Reconstruction MANUFACTURING Transborder restrictions, weak DEFENSE balance sheets among challenges 28 | Technology boosts Western air-to- 43 | Powerful optimization tools change for decimated airline networks air missile supremacy aerospace design engineers’ role 40 | Reconnecting Parts 30 | Beijing is taking the air-to-air AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT Ten years on, additive missile lead from Russia 45 | Europe’s GPS augmentation manufacturing has not changed system aims at Cat. 2 approaches 32 | New F-35 propulsion road map the aerospace landscape includes possible reengining 46 | The FAA applies its “preferred” 48 | Face to Face, Point to Point surveillance system 33 Flight Paths Forward: A look at | U.S. Army Vintage Racer concept details revealed inadvertently ASK THE EDITORS the future of business and general 55 | How can sustainable aviation fuel aviation after the coronavirus 34 | Performance is expected to leap be kept sustainable? after Australian Jindalee upgrade FROM THE EDITOR 35 | COVID-19 forces new approaches 58 | Coming soon: Aviation Week’s COMMERCIAL AVIATION to U.S. military pilot training Flight Paths Forward and more 18 | Emirates sees major benefits in tying up with a big U.S. airline 19 | Alitalia has its work cut out for ON THE COVER post-COVID-19 relaunch After 18 years and 92 launches, SpaceX founder, CEO and Chief Engineer Elon Musk celebrated his company’s achievement of becoming the first private entity to fly people to orbit. Space Editor Irene 20 | Europe’s LCCs face obstacles to Klotz’s report begins on page 22. NASASpaceFlight.com photo by Brady Kenninston. summer recovery Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST 21 | All SpaceJet flying suspended, production winding down to zero DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.
AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Beijing Market Briefi ngs. Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] market, identify opportunities and Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]
President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon
4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK
Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] OUT OF PROPORTION selected a point on the Hudson, west DISPUTED CLAIM
Executive Editors The “COVID Relief Dwarfs Defense of Madison Square Garden, where I always enjoy Graham Warwick’s in- Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Spending” graph in “First Take” on the shoreline made a bend slightly sightful reporting. Surprisingly, I think Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] page 8 of the May 18-31 issue is high- southeastward, and someone came I caught him in a minor misstatement Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] ly misleading. The reader of such a up with the idea of making it a float- in his “Short Story” (May 18-31, p. 48). Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Editors graphic would naturally assume that ing facility, runway and all, using the In discussing the NASA Quiet Short- Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, the areas of the circles are propor- “mothballed” fleet of Liberty Ships. Haul Research Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- tional to the numbers they represent. Basically, we designed an aircraft Aircraft (QSRA), Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, It seems, however, that the designer carrier, tethered to shore and floating he notes that “it Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, of the graphic made the diameters of vertically with the tide. contributed to Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Alas, the “Chelsea Against the the design of the Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George COVID Relief Dwarfs Defense Spending STOLport Committee” representing Boeing C-17.” I Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt many West Side residents of the city suspect that he MIT Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell $1.9 Global Defense protested. The pressure on Mayor was actually thinking about the Boeing Spending in 2019 REVISED Art Director Lisa Caputo (trillions) Government Stimulus John Lindsay was too much, and the YC-14 that shared the upper-surface Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Spending in 2020 $11.0 (trillions) city withdrew its support for the two- blown-flap design demonstrated by Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Copy Editors year Northeast Corridor demonstra- the QSRA. The C-17 traces its lineage Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie
Source: McKinsey and Co. tion grant we were seeking. to the then-McDonnell Douglas YC-15 Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso COVID Relief Dwarfs Defense Spending Fifty years later, we seem to think with externally blown flaps. Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Global Defense Spending in 2019 electric propulsion of quiet, autono- Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria (trillions) Government Stimulus mous air taxi aircraft will gain public Chris Mayrand, Beavercreek, Ohio Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq $1.9 Spending in 2020 (trillions) acceptance on the ground. However, Data & Analytics ORIGINAL air traffic control issues notwithstand- Editor’s note: Here is how NASA claims Brian Kough $11.0 Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights ing, let us not ever disregard the pos- it contributed to the C-17: nasa.gov/cen-
Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production sibility of public opposition to uncon- ters/langley/news/factsheets/C-17.html Terra Deskins Source: McKinsey and Co. strained, frequent, low-level overflight Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint the circles proportional to the repre- of residential land areas. ONLINE, in response to “Is Super-STOL Editorial Offices sented numbers rather than the areas, A Viable Alternative To Electric VTOL?” 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 causing the areas to be proportional George P. Vittas, Bedford, Texas (May 18-31, p. 48), MARKPAGE writes: Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 to the square of the numbers. The 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 large circle is thus over 30 times the BIG ISLAND Very informative article. Really GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 area of the small circle, when it should “Adapt or die” is the applicable adage excellent. Years ago Douglas studied dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland be only about 5.8 times the area. Many for the airline industry today. People a Super- STOL concept with a swept IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] readers will glance at the graph and don’t want to get on airliners because wing that was rotated perhaps 20 deg. Market Briefi ngs. Beijing come away with a very inaccurate they are afraid they will get the novel for takeoff and landing to limit the Bradley Perrett [email protected] impression. coronavirus by sharing a confined takeoff rotation problem, and control Cape Canaveral space with other passengers, some was provided by elevons and rudders These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Tim Coleman, Lynchburg, Virginia of whom may have asymptomatic on a C-winglet to keep the controls in Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] COVID-19. the propwash with good lever arm. No ‘STOLPORT’ STALL executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt What the airlines need to do is come other tails were needed. Jens Flottau [email protected] I read with interest Brad Gale’s com- up with the number and combination market, identify opportunities and Houston ments in “The Short of It” (May 18-31, of existing COVID-19 tests that work And in response to “Autonomous drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] p. 5), as I was American Airlines’ to get a 99.9% confidence level. Then Technology Prompts Ethical Calling London manager of airport planning at its for- they need to test it. Here’s how: There for German FCAS” (June 1-14, p. 32), Tony Osborne [email protected] KPAR writes: Los Angeles mer New York headquarters and had are no new COVID-19 cases on the big LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] the job of developing the “STOLPort” island of Hawaii. Airlines should fly to Lyon runway (and supporting passenger there for two weeks and regularly test “Fighting at machine speed is accom- aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] facilities) that was simulated in flight everyone on the island to confirm that panied by a real risk of escalation. So Moscow operations as described by Brad. Our no new cases arise when they fly in it is prudent that we keep humans as Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] objectives were to develop an opera- tourists. This would be the acid test. circuit breakers,” Frank Sauer Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] tion that would be superior in travel If the airlines can demonstrate So true. I’m glad that Germany is Washington time to Eastern’s Air Shuttle and successful COVID-19 testing, they are keeping the focus on the ethics of Jen DiMascio [email protected] American’s frequent services to Dulles back in business. Adapt to testing; auto mating defense tactics. Some- Wichita Airport and Boston’s Logan Airport. don’t die. thing that all Americans, liberal or Molly McMillin [email protected] Early on, we concluded approaches conservative, need to consider. This and departures had to be over water, William Thayer, San Diego problem transcends politics. President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton or at least no further in than the West Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Side Highway, to avoid dense commer- Anne McMahon cial and residential development. We Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, also concluded we would have to be 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: close enough to the Midtown Tunnel [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; to minimize crosstown travel time. We a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.
4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 5 WHO’S WHERE Webhed: New Positions, Promotions, Honors And Elections Teaser: Primary Category: Jeff Lewis has dent and chief financial officer. He was Specialized manufacturing group Secondary Category: been promoted to vice president of finance and corpo- AlphaCoin has promoted Robert Raytheon UK CEO rate controller. He succeeds Glenn E. Brooks to chief financial officer from Bullet Points: and managing di- Tynan, who will assist the transition vice president of finance for its Con- rector from chief until his retirement this fall. necticut Coining Inc. subsidiary, and operating officer. The International Aircraft Dealers Steven Maturo to associate director Lewis has worked Association has promoted Erika Ingle of business development from plant for Babcock Marine, the Weir Group to director of operations. Ingle will manager for its Gasser & Sons sub- and Balfour Beatty within the global be responsible for the day-to-day sidiary. defense sector. He succeeds Richard operation of the organization and its MTU Aero Engines’ supervisory Daniel, who will remain as an advisor. initiatives. board has extended the contracts of Thommen Aircraft Equipment of Ball Aerospace has two of its executive board members— Switzerland has hired Daniel Grosch appointed Deirdre Peter Kameritsch, chief financial and as CEO. He held leadership positions M. Walsh vice pres- chief information officer, andLars at MSI Defence Systems, Arktis Radi- ident of Washington Wagner, chief operating officer. They ation Detectors, Bruhn NewTech and operations. Walsh, are to serve through L-3 Communications. who will oversee December 2025. Bristow Group and Era Group, government rela- Robert O. Work has merging as Bristow, have announced a tions, is former chief operating officer been elected board new leadership team drawn from both of the Office of the Director of Nation- chairman of Govini, entities: Chris Bradshaw, president al Intelligence. a data science com- and CEO; David Stepanek, executive The Center for Strategic and pany whose analytic vice president and chief operating Budgetary Assessments has named platform is used by officer;Alan Corbett, senior vice pres- Chris Bassler as a senior fellow for U.S. defense agencies. Work serves on ident for Europe, Africa, the Middle research on joint aerospace capabili- the board of Raytheon Technologies East, Asia and Australia, and UK ties, maritime operating concepts and and is a member of the Council on For- search and rescue; Stuart Stavley, U.S. military strategy. He was chief eign Relations and the International senior vice president for global fleet strategy officer for the F-35 Lightning Institute for Strategic Studies. He was management; Samantha Willenbacher, II Joint Program Office and held sev- deputy secretary of defense in 2014-17. senior vice president and chief com- eral senior positions within the U.S. Aero Precision Holdings has elected mercial officer;Jennifer Whalen, Navy, also serving on Brad Morton to its board. He also senior vice president and chief finan- NATO forums. serves on the boards of Proponent and cial officer;Crystal Gordon, senior Paul Damphousse, Noble Aerospace. He was Eaton Corp. vice president and general counsel; vice president of Aerospace Group president. Mary Wersebe, senior vice president Calspan business Jeremy Turpin has been appointed and chief administrative officer; and devel opment, has to the Space and Satellite Professionals James Stottlemyer, vice president of been named to the International board. As Isotropic Sys- health, safety and FAA’s Commercial tems’ co-founder and chief technology environment. Space Transportation Advisory Commit- officer, Turpin heads high-throughput Lockheed Martin tee. Damphousse will serve as the chair optical multibeam antenna design and has promoted of the innovation and infrastructure development. Yvonne Hodge to working group. senior vice president MDA Corp. has hired U.S. Army HONORS AND ELECTIONS of enterprise busi- Col. (ret.) and retired NASA astro- George E. Bye has ness transformation naut Tim Kopra as vice president of been named to the from space sector vice president of robotics and space operations, re- Titan CEO program’s business innovation transformation sponsible for the work of the robotics inaugural Titan 100, and enterprise excellence. and space operations teams at MDA which recognizes Dave Andrew has been promoted to facilities in Brampton and Ottawa, 100 Colorado execu- ASL Group CEO from CEO for Africa, Ontario; Saint-Hubert, Quebec; and tives for exceptional Asia and the leasing sector, with re- Houston. Kopra was a partner and leadership, vision sponsibility for all fleet and leasing advisor at private equity firm Blue and passion. Bye is the founder of Bye operations. Andrew succeeds Hugh Bear Capital and before that was a Aerospace, a developer of innovative Flynn, who will retire as CEO in July NASA astronaut and vehicle integra- aircraft concepts. Titan CEO will con- but will serve as a nonexecutive di- tion test engineer. fer the award during 2020. c rector of ASL’s Aviation Holdings and as nonexecutive chairman of ASL’s To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files subsidiary airlines in Ireland, Belgium, (no PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on France and Hungary. companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence K. Christopher Farkas has been Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone promoted to Curtiss-Wright vice presi- U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.
6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE Webhed: New Positions, Promotions, Honors And Elections FIRST Leading the eVTOL Investment Race Teaser: (U.S. $ million) Primary Category: TAKE Joby Aviation $721 Jeff Lewis has dent and chief financial officer. He was Specialized manufacturing group For the latest, go to Secondary Category: been promoted to vice president of finance and corpo- AlphaCoin has promoted Robert AVIATIONWEEK.COM Raytheon UK CEO rate controller. He succeeds Glenn E. to chief financial officer from Brooks Lilium Bullet Points: and managing di- Tynan, who will assist the transition vice president of finance for its Con- $376 rector from chief until his retirement this fall. necticut Coining Inc. subsidiary, and SPACE operating officer. The International Aircraft Dealers Steven Maturo to associate director Four days after launching two astro- Air taxi developer Lilium has secured Lewis has worked Association has promoted Erika Ingle of business development from plant nauts to the International Space Station Volocopter $139 an additional $35 million from Tesla’s for Babcock Marine, the Weir Group to director of operations. Ingle will manager for its Gasser & Sons sub- on May 30 on a test fl ight of its Crew biggest backer, Scotland-based and Balfour Beatty within the global be responsible for the day-to-day sidiary. Dragon commercial space taxi, SpaceX investment management partnership defense sector. He succeeds Richard operation of the organization and its MTU Aero Engines’ supervisory launched another Falcon 9 with 60 Star- EHang $92 Baillie Gifford. This values the startup Daniel, who will remain as an advisor. initiatives. board has extended the contracts of link internet satellites, boosting the con- at over $1 billion, making it the second Thommen Aircraft Equipment of Ball Aerospace has two of its executive board members— stellation to 480 spacecraft (page 22). eVTOL unicorn after Joby Aviation. Switzerland has hired Daniel Grosch appointed Deirdre Peter Kameritsch, chief financial and Overair $25 as CEO. He held leadership positions M. Walsh vice pres- chief information officer, andLars The U.S. arm of Japanese satellite-ser- Source: Aviation Week at MSI Defence Systems, Arktis Radi- ident of Washington Wagner, chief operating officer. They vicing startup Astroscale is expanding ation Detectors, Bruhn NewTech and operations. Walsh, are to serve through into geostationary orbit by acquiring L-3 Communications. who will oversee December 2025. the assets of Israeli docked life-exten- GE Capital Aviation Services has de- Several U.S. airlines are among 69 sig- Bristow Group and Era Group, government rela- Robert O. Work has sion company E ective Space Solutions. livered a Boeing 777-300ER to Israel natories of a letter supporting the stay merging as Bristow, have announced a tions, is former chief operating officer been elected board Aerospace Industries in Tel Aviv as the of an order granting Ligado Networks new leadership team drawn from both of the Office of the Director of Nation- chairman of Govini, prototype for a passenger-to-freighter access to mobile satellite service bands entities: Chris Bradshaw, president al Intelligence. a data science com- conversion. for a ground-based 5G network. and CEO; David Stepanek, executive The Center for Strategic and pany whose analytic vice president and chief operating Budgetary Assessments has named platform is used by VIEW FROM EUROPE officer;Alan Corbett, senior vice pres- Chris Bassler as a senior fellow for U.S. defense agencies. Work serves on ident for Europe, Africa, the Middle research on joint aerospace capabili- the board of Raytheon Technologies East, Asia and Australia, and UK ties, maritime operating concepts and and is a member of the Council on For- search and rescue; Stuart Stavley, U.S. military strategy. He was chief eign Relations and the International Antivirus Injection for Europe senior vice president for global fleet strategy officer for the F-35 Lightning Institute for Strategic Studies. He was Responding to a brutal downturn in commercial aviation caused by management; Samantha Willenbacher, II Joint Program Office and held sev- deputy secretary of defense in 2014-17. Northrop Grumman will design the COVID-19 , the French and German governments have announced senior vice president and chief com- eral senior positions within the U.S. Aero Precision Holdings has elected HALO habitation and logistics outpost mercial officer;Jennifer Whalen, Navy, also serving on Brad Morton to its board. He also for the lunar-orbiting Gateway under a separate but comparable bailout plans for industry. They intend senior vice president and chief finan- NATO forums. serves on the boards of Proponent and $187 million NASA contract. HALO and to save employees from layo s and companies from bankruptcy. cial officer;Crystal Gordon, senior Paul Damphousse, Noble Aerospace. He was Eaton Corp. the Maxar Technologies power and pro- They also aim to cut aviation’s environmental footprint. vice president and general counsel; vice president of Aerospace Group president. pulsion element are scheduled to launch Mary Wersebe, senior vice president Calspan business Jeremy Turpin has been appointed together in 2023. As the leaders in European aerospace, they have taken measures and chief administrative officer; and devel opment, has to the Space and Satellite Professionals to support export fi nancing. France now allows aircraft buyers to James Stottlemyer, vice president of been named to the International board. As Isotropic Sys- COMMERCIAL AVIATION suspend capital repayments for 12 months. health, safety and FAA’s Commercial tems’ co-founder and chief technology The Hong Kong government will gain a environment. Space Transportation Advisory Commit- officer, Turpin heads high-throughput minority stake in Cathay Pacifi c Airways In France, a dedicated €1 billion ($1.1 billion) fund, to which Air- Lockheed Martin tee. Damphousse will serve as the chair optical multibeam antenna design and as part of a HK$39 billion ($5 billion) bus, Dassault, Safran and Thales will contribute €200 million, will has promoted of the innovation and infrastructure development. bailout package that includes investment help small and midsize enterprises (SME) in need of capital. Yvonne Hodge to working group. from the carrier’s major shareholders. senior vice president MDA Corp. has hired U.S. Army HONORS AND ELECTIONS In Germany, the economic stabilization fund established for of enterprise busi- Col. (ret.) and retired NASA astro- George E. Bye has The International Air Transport Associa- companies with urgent liquidity needs is now open to the aviation ness transformation naut Tim Kopra as vice president of been named to the tion anticipates the global airline indus- sector . In France, a second fund with €300 million in subsidies over from space sector vice president of robotics and space operations, re- Titan CEO program’s try will return to profi tability in 2022, business innovation transformation sponsible for the work of the robotics inaugural Titan 100, after su ering a combined loss of close three years will focus on SME digitalization and automation. and enterprise excellence. and space operations teams at MDA which recognizes to $100 billion for 2020-21 (page 14) . France will fund research with €1.5 billion over three years. In Dave Andrew has been promoted to facilities in Brampton and Ottawa, 100 Colorado execu- return, an Airbus A320 replacement is to be designed to enter into ASL Group CEO from CEO for Africa, Ontario; Saint-Hubert, Quebec; and tives for exceptional Daily ights in Europe rose above 6,000 Asia and the leasing sector, with re- Houston. Kopra was a partner and leadership, vision on June 2 and stayed at that level for service in the early 2030s with 30% lower fuel burn . sponsibility for all fleet and leasing advisor at private equity firm Blue and passion. Bye is the founder of Bye four days, showing a post-lockdown re- In parallel, a hydrogen-powered, “zero CO2” narrowbody is to be operations. Andrew succeeds Hugh Bear Capital and before that was a Aerospace, a developer of innovative covery in air tra c is getting underway, developed for introduction in 2033-35. A new regional aircraft, either Flynn, who will retire as CEO in July NASA astronaut and vehicle integra- aircraft concepts. Titan CEO will con- Eurocontrol said (page 20). but will serve as a nonexecutive di- tion test engineer. fer the award during 2020. c hybrid electric or hydrogen-powered, should enter service in 2030. rector of ASL’s Aviation Holdings and Carbon recycler LanzaTech has launched In Germany, €1 billion has been allocated to a fund supporting as nonexecutive chairman of ASL’s To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files a sustainable aviation fuel spinoff, research—not limited to aerospace— and €1 billion is earmarked subsidiary airlines in Ireland, Belgium, LanzaJet, with $25 million in backing (no PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on for German airlines renewing their fl eets with aircraft that are at France and Hungary. companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence from Canadian and Japanese investors. K. Christopher Farkas has been Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone The company plans to begin production least 30% more fuel e cient. promoted to Curtiss-Wright vice presi- U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S. in early 2022.
6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 FIRST TAKE PIPISTREL AIRCRAFT
Mitsubishi Aircraft has halted Space- The NATO Alliance Ground Surveil - Jet flight testing and production, say- lance Force conducted first flight of the ing it must first meet cost targets then RQ-4D Phoenix UAS on June 4 from achieve type certification before manu- Sigonella Air Base, Sicily. The system facturing will be considered (page 21). was delivered at the end of 2019.
DEFENSE Boeing flew the first of 72 Block III F/A- A scramjet-powered missile developed 18F Super Hornets for the U.S. Navy on under the DARPA/U.S. Air Force Hy- June 3 from St. Louis. GENERAL AVIATION personic Air-breathing Weapon Con- Pipistrel has received the first certifica- cept program was destroyed in a recent Aerospace Industrial Development tions for both an electric power unit and test accident. The missile is believed to Corp.’s AT-5 advanced jet trainer was an all-electric aircraft, with its two-seat have inadvertently separated from the photographed making its first flight on Velis Electro trainer receiving type cer- Boeing B-52 carrier aircraft during a June 10 from Ching Chuan Kang Air tification from EASA. captive-carry flight test. Base, Taiwan. South Korea plans to begin limited The U.S. Air Force has extended ini- Turkish Aerospace has revealed a mock- commercial urban air mobility service tial operational testing of the Boeing up of a second indigenous attack heli- in Seoul in 2025 following a large-scale, KC-46A tanker for at least three years, copter. The T-629 designation suggests public-private demonstration project until Boeing resolves issues with the it builds on the company’s T-625 Gokbey that will run from 2022-24. boom operator’s remote vision system. utility helicopter. Kaman Aerospace plans to fly a com- mercial unmanned aircraft based on its 16 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK K-Max heavy-lift helicopter in July or “Musk was just getting started, and some August. The optionally piloted aircraft of my colleagues did not believe he was for is to be on the market in 2021 (page 11). real and worthy of significant coverage,” AIRFLOW.AERO says Covault, who is now retired. “I felt dif- ferently and proceeded to do a major cover story. I was impressed with Musk because he was laser-focused on commercial space and reducing costs versus Boeing/McDonnell Douglas and Lockheed Martin. He had also hired one of the best rocket propulsion engineers in the world, Tom Mueller, who was key to SpaceX’s development of the Startup Airflow has announced plans to relatively simple and highly reliable Merlin develop a hybrid-electric short-takeoff- LOX/RP-1 engines.” and-landing aircraft for aerial logistics, In the article, respected physicist and able to carry a 500-lb. payload 250 nm engineer Michael Griffin explains in detail from a 300-ft. runway. how SpaceX’s model as a low-cost disruptor Beta Technologies and Joby Aviation are SpaceX’s May 30 launch of two astro- could be successful. Griffin later became to the International Space Station the first developers of urban air mobili- nauts NASA administrator and is now the Penta- on its Dragon capsule was a milestone ty vehicles to progress to the prototyp- gon’s chief technology officer. When Covault ing stage of the U.S. Air Force’s Agility for a company that was a 50-employee paid a return visit to SpaceX, framed copies Prime program. upstart when it was first featured on Avi- of the cover were hanging in Musk’s office ation Week’s cover on March 29, 2004. and at the company’s reception desk. EHang has received approval from the “David and Goliath: Can Tiny SpaceX Rock “Musk was singularly focused on defeating Civil Aviation Administration of Chi- Boeing?” the magazine asked. SpaceX na to begin commercial operation of the Boeing Delta IV Medium booster,” he founder Elon Musk did not interpret that its EHang 216 electric air taxi for un- says. “And that is exactly what SpaceX did.” positively. “It’s kind of a comical picture, to manned air logistics. be frank, because I think the implied an- Bombardier Aviation plans to lay off swer is ‘no,’” he recalled last month. Subscribers can read our 2004 2,500 employees throughout 2020, pri- But Craig Covault, the senior editor who profile of SpaceX and every issue back marily at its Canadian manufacturing wrote the five-page profile, begs to differ. to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com facilities, as it adjusts to lower post- COVID-19 business-jet deliveries. c
8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY FIRST TAKE UP FRONT PIPISTREL AIRCRAFT KEVIN MICHAELS Mitsubishi Aircraft has halted Space- The NATO Alliance Ground Surveil - Jet flight testing and production, say- lance Force conducted first flight of the ing it must first meet cost targets then RQ-4D Phoenix UAS on June 4 from COVID-19 IS THE BIGGEST CRISIS The stunning fact is that it has never faced a major achieve type certification before manu- Sigonella Air Base, Sicily. The system of the jetliner era, and attention is justi- production reduction. This raises the question: Where facturing will be considered (page 21). was delivered at the end of 2019. fiably focused on air traffic, airline via- will these OEMs find the experience and insight to deal bility and production rates—with jetliner unit output with the unprecedented COVID-19 downturn? DEFENSE Boeing flew the first of 72 Block III F/A- likely to plummet 40-50% over the next two years. And what about supplier risks? It is no surprise A scramjet-powered missile developed 18F Super Hornets for the U.S. Navy on However, lurking beneath the surface are enormous that financial pressure is immense, and it is a result under the DARPA/U.S. Air Force Hy- June 3 from St. Louis. GENERAL AVIATION supply chain risks that extend well beyond supplier of a four-element sequence of events. First, suppliers personic Air-breathing Weapon Con- Pipistrel has received the first certifica- viability and attrition. What are these risks? endured OEM supply chain initiatives over the last cept program was destroyed in a recent Aerospace Industrial Development tions for both an electric power unit and Beginning with the OEMs, managing major rate decade that squeezed margins and reduced working test accident. The missile is believed to Corp.’s AT-5 advanced jet trainer was an all-electric aircraft, with its two-seat reductions is an incredibly complex undertaking for capital. Then they were asked to invest significant have inadvertently separated from the photographed making its first flight on Velis Electro trainer receiving type cer- supply chain organizations. Ordering and scheduling capital to ramp up production as Boeing and Airbus Boeing B-52 carrier aircraft during a June 10 from Ching Chuan Kang Air tification from EASA. assumptions go out the girded for a future of 60-70 captive-carry flight test. Base, Taiwan. window, and OEMs must single-aisles per month. This South Korea plans to begin limited negotiate with hundreds of Hidden Risks was followed by the 737 MAX The U.S. Air Force has extended ini- Turkish Aerospace has revealed a mock- commercial urban air mobility service suppliers—many already Unpacking the many production shutdown early tial operational testing of the Boeing up of a second indigenous attack heli- in Seoul in 2025 following a large-scale, under financial duress this year. Now COVID-19. KC-46A tanker for at least three years, copter. The T-629 designation suggests public-private demonstration project thanks to the Boeing 737 COVID-19 supply chain dangers Chris Celtruda, a vet- until Boeing resolves issues with the it builds on the company’s T-625 Gokbey that will run from 2022-24. MAX shutdown—to deter- eran industry executive, boom operator’s remote vision system. utility helicopter. mine fiscal responsibility Major Jetliner Production Reductions* recently stated that 20% of Kaman Aerospace plans to fly a com- for work in process and in- Since 1990 jetliner suppliers could fail mercial unmanned aircraft based on its ventory. Moreover, OEMs because of the pandemic. If 16 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK K-Max heavy-lift helicopter in July or need to monitor the viabili- A he is correct, a commercial “Musk was just getting started, and some August. The optionally piloted aircraft ty of thousands of suppliers 1993 1994 2002 2003 supply chain crisis could of my colleagues did not believe he was for is to be on the market in 2021 (page 11). several tiers down the chain 0 morph into a defense-indus- real and worthy of significant coverage,” AIRFLOW.AERO to identify potential failure NON trial base crisis in the U.S. points. They need to avoid -5% and Europe as crucial sub- says Covault, who is now retired. “I felt dif- the crisis that hit the global tier suppliers fail. ferently and proceeded to do a major cover automotive supply chain in For those suppliers that story. I was impressed with Musk because he 2011 when a single paint pig- -10% navigate the storm, major was laser-focused on commercial space and ment supplier went offline questions loom regard- reducing costs versus Boeing/McDonnell following the Fukushima -15% ing operations. Should Douglas and Lockheed Martin. He had also earthquake in Japan. they believe OEM produc- hired one of the best rocket propulsion Communicating accurate -20% tion-rate guidance? Should and credible information to they commit precious cap- engineers in the world, Tom Mueller, who suppliers during a crisis is -25% ital to long-lead items or was key to SpaceX’s development of the Startup Airflow has announced plans to crucial. Lack of OEM sup- conserve cash? What is relatively simple and highly reliable Merlin develop a hybrid-electric short-takeoff- ply chain function credibil- the appropriate level of LOX/RP-1 engines.” and-landing aircraft for aerial logistics, ity will lead suppliers to de- -30% production capacity? How *Unit volume reduction of 20% or more In the article, respected physicist and able to carry a 500-lb. payload 250 nm velop their own production deeply should they cut Source: Teal Group engineer Michael Griffin explains in detail from a 300-ft. runway. assumptions and capacity their workforce? Source: Teal Group how SpaceX’s model as a low-cost disruptor plans, which means they may not be ready when jet- Finally, suppliers face the same experience gap as Beta Technologies and Joby Aviation are liner demand returns. Or they could overorder, weak- OEMs. How many leadership teams have managed SpaceX’s May 30 launch of two astro- could be successful. Griffin later became to the International Space Station the first developers of urban air mobili- ening their financial position. OEM supply chain or- through a major production downturn? Are owners— nauts NASA administrator and is now the Penta- on its Dragon capsule was a milestone ty vehicles to progress to the prototyp- ganizations are often caught between the company’s particularly private equity firms—patient enough to gon’s chief technology officer. When Covault ing stage of the U.S. Air Force’s Agility desire to present an optimistic outlook to financial invest for the future and see this through? for a company that was a 50-employee paid a return visit to SpaceX, framed copies Prime program. markets and reality. Transparency and frequent com- All these risks point to the fact that the underap- upstart when it was first featured on Avi- of the cover were hanging in Musk’s office munication are of paramount importance. preciated supply chain function could be the most im- ation Week’s cover on March 29, 2004. and at the company’s reception desk. EHang has received approval from the The playbook for managing these crises is learned portant within OEMs for the foreseeable future. These “David and Goliath: Can Tiny SpaceX Rock “Musk was singularly focused on defeating Civil Aviation Administration of Chi- through experience. Boeing’s last major downturn was organizations must navigate an unprecedented crisis Boeing?” the magazine asked. SpaceX na to begin commercial operation of nearly 20 years ago, when it reduced rates from 595 and prepare for and shape a post-COVID supply chain. the Boeing Delta IV Medium booster,” he founder Elon Musk did not interpret that its EHang 216 electric air taxi for un- jetliners in 1999 to 274 by 2003. “There was a lot of “OEMs have the power to pick and choose winners on says. “And that is exactly what SpaceX did.” positively. “It’s kind of a comical picture, to manned air logistics. chaos during this crisis,” a former Boeing supply chain the other side of the crisis,” supply chain guru Cliff Collier executive tells me. “We didn’t have a full appreciation says. “And they need suppliers that are financially sol- be frank, because I think the implied an- Bombardier Aviation plans to lay off of the complexity of the situation, we didn’t thoroughly vent and able to invest. This means they will no longer swer is ‘no,’” he recalled last month. Subscribers can read our 2004 2,500 employees throughout 2020, pri- vet our assumptions, nor did we fully understand the be able to select suppliers primarily based on price.” c But Craig Covault, the senior editor who profile of SpaceX and every issue back marily at its Canadian manufacturing supplier challenges of ramping up after the crisis.” wrote the five-page profile, begs to differ. to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com facilities, as it adjusts to lower post- Most Boeing executives who navigated the ear- Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is managing director of COVID-19 business-jet deliveries. c ly-2000s downturn have retired. What about Airbus? AeroDynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 9 COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS MICHAEL BRUNO
DOES WESTERN AEROSPACE AND support within the A&D sector, as evidenced by 76% of defense need to be better protected participants voting in favor of that premise during the against Chinese investment? Should recent Aviation Week webinar. But the new U.S. CARES Washington directly invest in the U.S. Act shows it is easier said than done. Corporate Amer- defense industrial base? Does anyone know how a ica has an allergic reaction to the government getting a nationally reliable, albeit not centrally planned A&D direct stake. A&D companies would much rather Uncle marketplace works? So far, on the year-plus journey Sam pick up the costs of doing business—think tax to a “trusted capital marketplace,” the questions seem breaks, export-credit agency guarantees and govern- to outnumber the answers exponentially. ment-funded research and infrastructure—and let The U.S. is girding to ward off China’s influence on management make decisions while investors reap the the Western aerospace ecosystem after COVID-19. But profits. Taxpayers and their elected representatives as a recent Aviation Week Network webinar illustrates, may not agree whether that is enough. there is a long way to go before the right balance is achieved and the risk of messing up the world’s leading Chinese Investment in the U.S. Aviation aviation, space and defense supply base abates. “How far are we into the marathon? I think 15-20%,” Industry 2008-19: $798 million AirFinance Managing Partner Kirsten Bartok Touw said during the webinar. “We’re still figuring it out.” $400 Wall of Greenbacks Is the U.S. A&D sector at risk 300 of Chinese investors flooding in?
Tom Mayor, industrial manufacturing strategy prac- 200 tice leader at KPMG, agreed with the analogy. “We have to create a level playing field with a rapidly growing U.S. $ million global competitor,” he said during the webinar. “We can’t break the global economy while doing it. So we’re going 100 to have to step our way to leveling that playing field.” COVID-19 has made the whole Western A&D sector desperate for liquidity. The commercial side of industry is responsible for 70-80% of total business activity, mean- 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 ing the entire industrial foundation is being rocked by the novel coronavirus, including the defense industrial base. Source: National Committee on U.S.-China Relations While the Chinese have been investing in the U.S. for years, one fear is they could move in harder now Last but not least, saddling up with Uncle Sam could than they have before. “The [2008] financial crisis and have major ramifications for startups and companies in subsequent drop in demand for private planes offered the aerospace sector. By turning their backs on China, opportunities for Chinese investors in the general avi- these firms may lose out next decade on what is expected ation sector,” notes a May update to bilateral invest- to be the largest aviation system in the world. Addition- ment trends by the U.S.-supported National Commit- ally, retribution in the form of denying market access tee on U.S.-China Relations. What is more, the group’s could have consequences for overall market health. data shows a longstanding, integrated relationship has KPMG’s Mayor says part of the solution lies in har- grown despite wariness on both sides. nessing the West’s unrivaled private equity and ven- What can be done about it? There are no easy an- ture capital investment arena, along the lines of the swers. The administration of President Donald Trump “trusted capital” network being talked about in Wash- has had to water down initial chest-thumping proclama- ington. Touw expects whole new government agencies tions, too, because many questions remain unanswered. and institutions to emerge along the way. Both agree For instance, how does the U.S. government exert tech- more U.S. action is almost certain. nological controls without strangling industry? It hap- It could be a paradigm shift for a country that, A&D pened before with satellites in the 1990s, leaving an subsidies aside, has little history of industrial policy- opportunity for European competitors to emerge and making. But as Touw said: “We gradually need to take for China to focus on growing its own capabilities. more thought leadership in this space, more encour- What about investment? Should the U.S. government agement of the industrial base that we want to develop, have a sovereign wealth fund for A&D companies and and then actually start to make some investments and startups to fend off Chinese suitors? There is certainly [be] even more active.” c
10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS LEADING EDGE MICHAEL BRUNO GRAHAM WARWICK
DOES WESTERN AEROSPACE AND support within the A&D sector, as evidenced by 76% of THE RATIONALE FOR UNMANNING A camera under the fuselage provides a view of the defense need to be better protected participants voting in favor of that premise during the helicopters is pretty compelling. They slung load, which is carried on a cargo hook attached against Chinese investment? Should recent Aviation Week webinar. But the new U.S. CARES are often used for repetitive tasks such to a trolley that allows the external load to swing Washington directly invest in the U.S. Act shows it is easier said than done. Corporate Amer- as lifting loads, and their operating laterally. This maximizes the power available to lift defense industrial base? Does anyone know how a ica has an allergic reaction to the government getting a hours are limited by the pilots and not the machines. loads and helps the pilot maintain control of the slung nationally reliable, albeit not centrally planned A&D direct stake. A&D companies would much rather Uncle But the task of unmanning helicopters is challenging load, Dasmalchi said. marketplace works? So far, on the year-plus journey Sam pick up the costs of doing business—think tax because they tend to operate at low altitude in obsta- In the cockpit, a camera provides the ground- to a “trusted capital marketplace,” the questions seem breaks, export-credit agency guarantees and govern- cle-rich environments. station operator with a first-person view through the to outnumber the answers exponentially. ment-funded research and infrastructure—and let Kaman flew the first pilotless helicopter in 1957, windscreen. Another camera provides a view of the The U.S. is girding to ward off China’s influence on management make decisions while investors reap the a remotely controlled HTK-1. In 2011, an unmanned gauges on the instrument panel. A portable mainte- the Western aerospace ecosystem after COVID-19. But profits. Taxpayers and their elected representatives version of the company’s K-Max external-lift heli- nance computer provides a backup cockpit view to as a recent Aviation Week Network webinar illustrates, may not agree whether that is enough. copter deployed to Afghanistan with the U.S. Marine the ground control station. there is a long way to go before the right balance is Corps. Over 33 months, two helicopters carried more Development of the commercial heavy-duty UAS achieved and the risk of messing up the world’s leading than 4.5 million lb. of supplies to forward bases. builds on experimentation underway with the U.S. Chinese Investment in the U.S. Aviation aviation, space and defense supply base abates. Now, Kaman is developing a heavy-duty commercial Marine Corps using two unmanned K-Maxs originally “How far are we into the marathon? I think 15-20%,” Industry 2008-19: $798 million unmanned aircraft system (UAS) based on the FAA-cer- produced for the Office of Naval Research. The two AirFinance Managing Partner Kirsten Bartok Touw tified K-Max. Flight testing is expected to begin in July helicopters were deployed to Afghanistan in 2011-14, said during the webinar. “We’re still figuring it out.” or August, and the 12,000-lb. optionally piloted aircraft carrying more than 4.5 million lb. of cargo. $400 (see diagram) is expected to be on the market in 2021. Wall of Greenbacks Is the U.S. A&D sector at risk 300 Load Lifter of Chinese investors flooding in? Kaman is developing an
Tom Mayor, industrial manufacturing strategy prac- 200 optionally piloted K-Max tice leader at KPMG, agreed with the analogy. “We have to create a level playing field with a rapidly growing U.S. $ million global competitor,” he said during the webinar. “We can’t “We have five systems already spoken for,” break the global economy while doing it. So we’re going 100 Romin Dasmalchi, senior director of govern- to have to step our way to leveling that playing field.” ment business development, told a Helicopter COVID-19 has made the whole Western A&D sector Association International webinar on June 4. Ka- PHOTO CREDIT desperate for liquidity. The commercial side of industry man sees roles in firefighting, humanitarian assis- 0 is responsible for 70-80% of total business activity, mean- tance, oil and gas, logistics and medical missions. KAMAN AEROSPACE 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 ing the entire industrial foundation is being rocked by the Kaman plans to certify the K-Max as an optionally novel coronavirus, including the defense industrial base. Source: National Committee on U.S.-China Relations piloted aircraft so it can be flown manned to a work While the Chinese have been investing in the U.S. site and be converted there to unmanned operation for years, one fear is they could move in harder now Last but not least, saddling up with Uncle Sam could to continue flying into darkness or deteriorating In May 2019, Kaman was awarded a contract to re - than they have before. “The [2008] financial crisis and have major ramifications for startups and companies in weather. Dasmalchi cites the example of being able to turn the two aircraft to service and replace the orig- subsequent drop in demand for private planes offered the aerospace sector. By turning their backs on China, continue fighting fires into the night. inal Lockheed Martin-developed unmanned system opportunities for Chinese investors in the general avi- these firms may lose out next decade on what is expected The unmanned system is being developed by with updated equipment. The helicopters, designated ation sector,” notes a May update to bilateral invest- to be the largest aviation system in the world. Addition- Kaman and an unidentified partner using commercial CQ-24As, are being used to develop autonomy tech- ment trends by the U.S.-supported National Commit- ally, retribution in the form of denying market access off-the-shelf technology. “There are components that nology for unmanned air logistics. tee on U.S.-China Relations. What is more, the group’s could have consequences for overall market health. have already been out there flying for a long time. It Initially, the optionally piloted K-Max—certified un- data shows a longstanding, integrated relationship has KPMG’s Mayor says part of the solution lies in har- saves money, it saves weight, and you get better reli- der FAA Part 21.17b—will have GPS-based autonomy, grown despite wariness on both sides. nessing the West’s unrivaled private equity and ven- ability and redundancy,” Dasmalchi said. navigating via waypoints that are preprogrammed but What can be done about it? There are no easy an- ture capital investment arena, along the lines of the Kaman completed critical design reviews in De- which can be changed in flight by the ground operator. swers. The administration of President Donald Trump “trusted capital” network being talked about in Wash- cember for the hardware and February for the soft- Under the Marine Corps program, Kaman is experi- has had to water down initial chest-thumping proclama- ington. Touw expects whole new government agencies ware. A ground-test readiness review was conducted menting with sensor-based detect-and-avoid technol- tions, too, because many questions remain unanswered. and institutions to emerge along the way. Both agree in April, and installation of the system in the aircraft ogy, a capability that could in the future be incorpo- For instance, how does the U.S. government exert tech- more U.S. action is almost certain. is planned to be completed in June. “We’ve moved rated into the commercial K-Max UAS. nological controls without strangling industry? It hap- It could be a paradigm shift for a country that, A&D along nicely, even with the pandemic,” he said. Higher levels of autonomy, such as those being de- pened before with satellites in the 1990s, leaving an subsidies aside, has little history of industrial policy- The K-Max UAS is modified with a mission com- veloped and demonstrated by Lockheed Martin com- opportunity for European competitors to emerge and making. But as Touw said: “We gradually need to take puter, dual flight-control computers, and line-of-sight pany Sikorsky under its Matrix Technology program, for China to focus on growing its own capabilities. more thought leadership in this space, more encour- and beyond-line-of-sight data link transceivers. Dual are needed to unlock the full potential of unmanned What about investment? Should the U.S. government agement of the industrial base that we want to develop, air-data computers, GPS/inertial sensors and a radar rotorcraft. But once certified, the K-Max heavy-lift have a sovereign wealth fund for A&D companies and and then actually start to make some investments and altimeter are installed. Redundant electric actuators UAS will represent a significant step forward for un- startups to fend off Chinese suitors? There is certainly [be] even more active.” c are fitted to the pilot controls. manned aviation—64 years after the HTK-1. c
10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 11 DEFENSE > Air-to-air missiles west and east p. 28 F-35 engine p. 32 U.S. Army Vintage Racer p. 33 Australian radar upgrade p. 34
The Next Bomber? STAFF SGT. JACOB BAILEY/U.S. AIR FORCE > “ARSENAL PLANE” PROTOTYPING > AFRL DEMONSTRATED NEW BUDGET IN DISCUSSION CLEAVER MUNITION
Steve Trimble Washington n “Arsenal Plane” has rapidly emerged as a short-term Air-dropping palletized munitions from priority for the U.S. Air Force, but an internal debate C-17s and C-130s is one option for solv- continues over the type of aircraft to use, potentially ing a strike-power capacity problem. Aaffecting the service’s existing command structure and 120 bombers by 2032 as the B-2 and the Northrop Grumman B-21 program. B-1B fleets are retired. Gunzinger, a former bomber pilot, A proposal to modify Lockheed in more long-range munitions to sup- forecasts the Air Force will order C-130s and Boeing C-17s to air-drop port the Arsenal Plane concept. about 120 B-21s by 2040. Combined existing and new long-range muni- All the parties involved agree that with 75 B-52s, however, the fleet would tions is now favored as a short-term the airborne component of the Air still be about 30 aircraft short of the solution by the Air Force Warfighting Force’s long-range strike capability minimum deemed required by the Air Integration Capability (AFWIC) office, is inadequate, even after Northrop Force today. Closing that gap—either which is charged with developing new Grumman delivers at least 100 B-21s, by loading long-range munitions on ex- operational concepts by the Air Staff. which are expected to replace a fleet isting airlifters, developing a new air- Air Force Global Strike Command of 20 Northrop B-2s and 62 Rockwell craft for that purpose or buying more (AFGSC), which has responsibility for B-1Bs and operate alongside about 75 B-21s—is driving the internal debate. the bomber fleet and inventory of inter- Boeing B-52s. At its core, the debate is over cost- continental ballistic missiles, prefers “What we see is that no matter effec tiveness and capacity. A stealthy developing a new aircraft optimized how big our bomber force is, the ca- bomber such as the B-21A is more for the mission, rather than seeking to pacity that the Joint Force needs is expensive than an Arsenal Plane but borrow strike capacity from an already always more and more,” says Maj. needs less expensive, unpowered muni- overburdened air mobility fleet. Gen. Clinton Hinote, deputy director tions because they can be released clos- Neither proposal is endorsed by the of the AFWIC, which develops new op- er to the target. On the other hand, the Mitchell Institute, the think tank arm erational concepts with the Air Staff. B-21A is still in the early development of the Air Force Association (AFA). The Air Force’s latest estimate of phase, so Northrop may need more In a prepublication report obtained the requirement calls for a fleet of at than a decade to deliver a significant by Aviation Week, Col. (ret.) Mark least 220 bombers, Gen. Timothy Ray, number of aircraft. Gunzinger, the institute’s director the head of AFGSC, told reporters in In 2006, the Congressional Budget of Future Aerospace Concepts and early April. Office considered an Arsenal Aircraft Capa bility Assessments, argues the According to a fleet forecast in based on a Boeing C-17 loaded with a most cost-effective solution is to buy the Mitchell Institute report, the Air supersonic cruise missile and conclud- more B-21 bombers rather than invest Force inventory could decline to about ed that it would be less effective than
12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE Air-to-air missiles west and east p. 28 F-35 engine p. 32 U.S. Army Vintage Racer p. 33 Australian radar upgrade p. 34 > An Inventory Estimate for the U.S. Air Force Bomber Fleet
425 A new estimate of the U.S. Air Force’s 400 375 bomber inventory shows a long-term 350 shortfall, which is prompting calls to 325 Inventory will not recover to fiscal 2020 level bolster capacity by adding an Arsenal 300 until the mid-2030s Plane or buying more B-21s. 275 250 A a penetrating bomber and require an 225 extra $3.5 billion to order more C-17s. 200 As the Pentagon locked in require- 175 Bomber bathtub ments for the B-21A program four 150 years later, an Air Force-funded study 125 by Rand compared the costs of a pen- Bomber Inventory Air Force Total 100 etrating bomber versus an Arsenal 75 50 Plane concept. If the U.S. military en- gages in at least 20 days of airstrikes 25 0 over a 30-year period, the 2010 study 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 concluded a penetrating bomber would Fiscal Year be more affordable than the required STAFF SGT. JACOB BAILEY/U.S. AIR FORCE Source: Mitchell Institute investment in the Arsenal Plane. Source: Mitchell Institute Even though the Air Force award- because it can increase munition ca- some airpower experts still reject the The Next Bomber? ed Northrop a contract to develop pacity significantly in the near term. idea that anything less than a stealthy the B-21A in October 2015, however, “It’s all about capacity and that bomber is adequate. “ARSENAL PLANE” PROTOTYPING AFRL DEMONSTRATED NEW the debate has continued. Will Roper, you’ve got to create enough capacity Instead of lobbing long-range mis- > > then director of the Strategic Capa- so that long-range punch is really a siles, the B-21 is designed to get close BUDGET IN DISCUSSION CLEAVER MUNITION bilities Office within the Office of the punch,” Hinote says. “This is why we enough to a target to use short-range, Secretary of Defense, unveiled an Ar- think that there’s a real possibility here direct-attack weapons. Such munitions senal Plane concept in February 2016, for using cargo platforms to be able to do not need to carry fuel and propul- showing a Lockheed C-130-like aircraft increase the capacity of fires.” sion systems and thus can be smaller in Steve Trimble Washington dispensing palletized munitions. Not everyone agrees with that proportion to the size of their warhead. A year later, Roper became assis- approach. As the commander of the “Size matters, since the number of n “Arsenal Plane” has rapidly emerged as a short-term Air-dropping palletized munitions from tant secretary of the Air Force for ac- Air Force’s bomber fleet, Ray told re- weapons that can be delivered per air- priority for the U.S. Air Force, but an internal debate C-17s and C-130s is one option for solv- quisition, technology and logistics, and porters in early April that he does not craft sortie decreases as weapon size ing a strike-power capacity problem. the Arsenal Plane moved to the Air want a commander to have to choose increases,” Gunzinger writes in the continues over the type of aircraft to use, potentially Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). between using a C-17 for either weap- Mitchell Institute report. affecting the service’s existing command structure and 120 bombers by 2032 as the B-2 and In January, the AFRL completed the ons or airlift capacity. In addition to capacity, Gunzinger A also questions the cost of an Arsenal the Northrop Grumman B-21 program. B-1B fleets are retired. first test of a new palletized munition “When you think about using a cargo Gunzinger, a former bomber pilot, dropped by an MC-130J. A picture of plane, you’re in competition for other Plane’s required inventory of long- A proposal to modify Lockheed in more long-range munitions to sup- forecasts the Air Force will order the new weapon—the Cargo Launch C-130s and Boeing C-17s to air-drop port the Arsenal Plane concept. about 120 B-21s by 2040. Combined Expendable Air Vehicles with Ex- Cost of Bombers vs. Cruise Missiles existing and new long-range muni- All the parties involved agree that with 75 B-52s, however, the fleet would tended Range (Cleaver)—showed six tions is now favored as a short-term the airborne component of the Air still be about 30 aircraft short of the munitions on each pallet. A follow-up AN I $1,400 $2,500 solution by the Air Force Warfighting Force’s long-range strike capability minimum deemed required by the Air test involving an airdrop from C-17s 20 days of conflict Costs favor Integration Capability (AFWIC) office, is inadequate, even after Northrop Force today. Closing that gap—either was scheduled in April. 1,200 costs turn in favor of penetrating bomber penetrating bomber 2,000 in 10 or 15 days which is charged with developing new Grumman delivers at least 100 B-21s, by loading long-range munitions on ex- The Cleaver testing satisfied AFRL 1,000 operational concepts by the Air Staff. which are expected to replace a fleet isting airlifters, developing a new air- that C-130s and C-17s could adapt 1,500 Air Force Global Strike Command of 20 Northrop B-2s and 62 Rockwell craft for that purpose or buying more one of the core capabilities for both 800
600 (AFGSC), which has responsibility for B-1Bs and operate alongside about 75 B-21s—is driving the internal debate. aircraft: airdrop. The C-17 also has 1,000 the bomber fleet and inventory of inter- Boeing B-52s. At its core, the debate is over cost- demonstrated the capability to release 400 Cruise Missile Cost Standoff Aircraft + Hypersonic Cruise Missiles continental ballistic missiles, prefers “What we see is that no matter effec tiveness and capacity. A stealthy air-launched rockets from the cargo Costs (U.S. $ million) Total 500 Penetrating Bomber Cost Standoff Aircraft + JASSM-ER developing a new aircraft optimized how big our bomber force is, the ca- bomber such as the B-21A is more bay. In 2006, a C-17 was used to airdrop 200 Total Costs Fiscal 2020 (U.S. $ million) Total Penetrating Bomber + Direct Attack Weapons (Procurement + Operations and Support) (Procurement (Procurement + Operations and Support) (Procurement for the mission, rather than seeking to pacity that the Joint Force needs is expensive than an Arsenal Plane but a launcher for a hypersonic boost-glide 0 0 borrow strike capacity from an already always more and more,” says Maj. needs less expensive, unpowered muni- missile. The aircraft also is used by the 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 overburdened air mobility fleet. Gen. Clinton Hinote, deputy director tions because they can be released clos- Missile Defense Agency to test inter- Days of Conflict in 30-Year Period Days of Conflict in 30-Year Period Neither proposal is endorsed by the of the AFWIC, which develops new op- er to the target. On the other hand, the ceptors by dropping surrogates of me- Sources: RAND and Mitchell Institute Mitchell Institute, the think tank arm erational concepts with the Air Staff. B-21A is still in the early development dium-range ballistic missiles. of the Air Force Association (AFA). The Air Force’s latest estimate of phase, so Northrop may need more The AFRL completed the tests airlift requirements,” Ray said. “I think range munitions, versus a bomber’s
In a prepublication report obtained the requirement calls for a fleet of at than a decade to deliver a significant weeks before the Defense Department the Sources:Arsenal RAND and Mitchell Plane Institute concept is probably more affordable, precision-guided by Aviation Week, Col. (ret.) Mark least 220 bombers, Gen. Timothy Ray, number of aircraft. completed plans for the fiscal 2022 bud- better defined as more of a clean-sheet bombs. A conflict with China or Russia Gunzinger, the institute’s director the head of AFGSC, told reporters in In 2006, the Congressional Budget get proposal. “We are in discussions approach to a platform that can afford- could generate a massive list of targets. of Future Aerospace Concepts and early April. Office considered an Arsenal Aircraft right now about how we proceed to ably and rapidly fill the gap.” “Using tens of thousands of very Capa bility Assessments, argues the According to a fleet forecast in based on a Boeing C-17 loaded with a prototyping and fielding,” Hinote says. While Hinote and Ray debate long-range standoff weapons that cost most cost-effective solution is to buy the Mitchell Institute report, the Air supersonic cruise missile and conclud- For AFWIC, arming C-130s and C-17s whether an existing or clean-sheet a million dollars or more each is simply more B-21 bombers rather than invest Force inventory could decline to about ed that it would be less effective than with long-range weapons is attractive design is better for an Arsenal Plane, not affordable,” Gunzinger writes.c
12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 13 FABLES OF THE RECONSTRUCTION
COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Emirates-U.S. airline tie-up? p. 18 Alitalia relaunch p. 19 European LCCs p. 20 SpaceJet pause p. 21
FABLES OF THE RECONSTRUCTION > AIRLINES MAY LOSE $100 BILLION THROUGH 2021 > ANNUAL PASSENGER TOTAL IS REVERTING TO THE 2006 LEVEL
Rebuilding airline networks will take time and will be a ected by new, highly volatile variables.
Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Adrian Schofield Auckland, Ben Goldstein and Sean Broderick Washington he airline industry remains in the early stages of an un- Which aircraft should be fl own? And how much of the rebuilding can be precedented crisis. Demand, while beginning to recover, modeled on past fl ows? remains minimal, and cash is fl owing out at stunning The answers, much like the recov- speed. A wave of bankruptcies has yet to materialize, ery’s expected path, will di er based T on specifi c circumstances. but only because governments were quick to bail out airlines “Normally, network planning is identifi ed as being too big, or too economically important, to fail. one-third math, one-third trial and error and one-third gut feeling,” says Now that there are early signs questions they are pondering: Which Philipp Goedeking, managing director of recovery, airlines face their next markets should come back online of consultancy Avinomics. “During major challenge—quickly rebuilding fi rst, and how should they be served? the coronavirus pandemic, it’s really networks that took decades to con- Does local traffic have priority over only 10% math. There will have to be struct and optimize. Among the key connecting markets or vice versa? a lot of experimenting.”
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COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Emirates-U.S. airline tie-up? p. 18 Alitalia relaunch p. 19 European LCCs p. 20 SpaceJet pause p. 21
travel restrictions have begun to come standstill with little data to support down in many parts of the world, most forward-booking estimates has airline remain in place for long-haul flying. leaders understandably nervous. Some That shifts the focus to domestic and contend that discounting will not help
OF THE short-haul operations. Lufthansa, for the recovery, because the demand dip FABLES RECONSTRUCTION example, recorded less than 2% of its is more linked to health concerns than AIRLINES MAY LOSE $100 BILLION THROUGH 2021 ANNUAL PASSENGER TOTAL IS REVERTING TO THE 2006 LEVEL normal tra c in April but is now ex- economic considerations. > > panding to 15% in the second half of Despite this, and perhaps in re- JOE RIESA IATIO . ET June. Published schedules through sponse to historically low load factors September have capacity back to 40% even with major capacity reductions, of precrisis levels, but the airline will fares are falling. IATA fi gures showed serve 70% of its previous long-haul domestic ticket prices were down 23% points and 90% of European destina- in May compared to a year ago. Inter- tions. In other words, its network will national fares did not drop as fast, but be broad but not deep. Many markets a near-complete lack of capacity to sell will be served but at low frequency. likely helped support pricing. That pattern is popular with other Many airlines expect international carriers operating di erent business ticket prices to drop, too, as capaci- models. EasyJet is fl ying 30% of nor- ty begins to return over the coming mal July-September levels but will be weeks. Europe, in particular, bears covering 75% of its network by August. watching as more governments move Given the trend of broad but lim- to lift travel restrictions. ited demand, European airlines are While each region will face unique restarting their networks with small sets of restrictions and COVID-19-con- aircraft. Beginning June 15, Austrian tamination risks that will infl uence how Airlines is operating the fi rst routes, airlines proceed, several general global after an almost complete three-month trends are expected to emerge. Domes- lock-down, using mainly Embraer 190s tic routes will generally recover fi rst, and de Havilland Dash 8-400s. followed by short-haul international Another element of pandemic-in- markets, with most long-haul ser- duced passenger behavior wreaking vices lagging. Leisure-tra c demand havoc on airline planning is last-min- will lead recovery in many regions, as ute booking. International Air Trans- individuals relieve pent-up urges of port Association (IATA) data show a wanderlust while companies remain preference for very late booking—61% conservative with travel budgets. Across networks, fre- Projected 2020 Airline Performance quencies will build slow- By Region ly, and in some cases—the Region Passenger Demand Passenger Capacity Net Profi t U.S. being a primary ex- (revenue passenger kilometers) (available seat kilometers) (U.S. $ billion) ample—the larger air- AFRICA -58.5% -50.4% -$2.0 lines’ desires to rebuild ASIA-PACIFIC -53.8 -39.2 -29.0 balance sheets will take Rebuilding airline networks will take time and will EUROPE -56.4 -42.9 -21.5 priority over replicating pre pandemic capacity. be a ected by new, highly volatile variables. LATIN AMERICA -57.4 -43.3 -4.0 The Asia-Pacific re- MIDDLE EAST -56.1 -46.1 -4.8 gion is following the pat- NORTH AMERICA -52.6 -35.2 -23.1 tern, with many domes- Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Adrian Schofield Auckland, Ben Goldstein and Sean Broderick Washington GLOBAL -54.7 -40.4 -$84.3 tic markets bouncing Source: IA A back quickly as internal he airline industry remains in the early stages of an un- Which aircraft should be fl own? And For hub carriers, a top-to-bottom of passengers are buying their tickets travel restrictions ease and airlines how much of the rebuilding can be rebuild should, in theory, start with within three days of departure, com- reestablish routes, generally with precedented crisis. Demand, while beginning to recover, modeled on past fl ows? long-haul connections, as they have pared to 46% before the crisis. The fewer frequencies. Attention is shift- remains minimal, and cash is fl owing out at stunning The answers, much like the recov- the most logistical limitations. share of passengers booking 12 days ing to the more complicated question speed. A wave of bankruptcies has yet to materialize, ery’s expected path, will di er based Asia-Pacifi c evening departures arrive or more prior to their planned fl ight, of how and when international ser- T on specifi c circumstances. in Europe in the morning and must be is down to 8% from 20%. vices can be restored. but only because governments were quick to bail out airlines “Normally, network planning is timed to abide by curfews while max- The shift means visibility of actu- identifi ed as being too big, or too economically important, to fail. one-third math, one-third trial and imizing passenger connections. Most al loads is more limited than before, ASIAPACIFIC error and one-third gut feeling,” says lucrative are long-haul-to-long-haul but there is also more significant up- Several Asia-Pacifi c airlines have be- Now that there are early signs questions they are pondering: Which Philipp Goedeking, managing director connections, in this case Asia via Eu- ward potential right up to departure. gun to tentatively add more routes to of recovery, airlines face their next markets should come back online of consultancy Avinomics. “During rope to North America or Africa. Historical volumes for specific city their bare bones international net- major challenge—quickly rebuilding fi rst, and how should they be served? the coronavirus pandemic, it’s really But the pandemic’s realities mean pairs at certain times of the day are works, even though travel restrictions networks that took decades to con- Does local traffic have priority over only 10% math. There will have to be this theory must be altered signifi- also of limited value. have yet to ease signifi cantly. struct and optimize. Among the key connecting markets or vice versa? a lot of experimenting.” cantly. While domestic and regional Coming out of an almost complete Restarting with low frequency al-
1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 1 COMMERCIAL AVIATION
lows these airlines to meet the limited through their airports starting in ternational service due to COVID-19 demand that exists while positioning June. Most foreign travelers will not concerns. The rules were eased slight- themselves to respond when more be allowed to end their journeys in ly on June 8, but carriers are still lim- markets reopen. In some cases, air- Hong Kong or Singapore, but they will ited to a few weekly flights. lines have been initially focusing on be able to connect there. Korean Air and Asiana Airlines routes that have strong cargo and This is an important step for Ca- said in May they intended to add sev- passenger demand. thay and SIA. Although many of their eral flights to mainland China to their For most carriers in the region, strat- key markets for connecting flights June schedule, if approvals could be egies to rebuild international networks remain closed, they can position obtained. But because the restrictions will depend heavily on government themselves to capture transit traffic were not loosened sufficiently, both decisions to reduce cross-border re- as it begins to return. They can also airlines were forced to shelve these strictions. Asia-Pacific countries have ensure that other major connecting plans. Their schedules now list one widely contrasting rates of progress hubs in Asia and elsewhere do not route each through July. in containing the pandemic, meaning steal a march on them and gain a This situation highlights that re- restrictions will ease at different times competitive advantage. suming international services will require flexibility for many Projected U.S. Domestic Traffic Recovery Asian airlines. Plans will often have to be changed at short by Carrier Types notice if governments do not 110 open borders as expected, or
100% if new spikes in coronavirus cases arise. 90 Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand plan to estab - 80 lish a travel bubble that would allow all passengers to fly be- 70 Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways tween the two countries with Network Carriers* no quarantine requirements. 60 Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says Southwest Airlines if it is successful, this could be 50 Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers** a template for opening other
40 international markets one by one. A joint industry/gov- 30 ernment working group with 2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 representatives from both countries has presented a re-
*Includes American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. port on how the travel bubble **Includes Frontier Airlines, Spirit Airlines and Allegiant Air. Source: Delta Air ort onsultants could be implemented.
and will often be difficult to predict. Discussions have begun among NORTH AMERICA Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Ca- some Asia-Pacific governments about In the U.S., carriers are restoring thay Pacific are particularly focused easing border and quarantine restric- capacity at an uneven pace, largely on international markets reopening, tions to allow some essential travel to depending on their relative exposure as they have no domestic networks. resume. These will initially be bilater- to international flying. Canada-U.S. Cathay Chairman Patrick Healy says al arrangements between countries so flying remains off limits to all but es- that the carrier is “even more vul - that procedures and safeguards can sential travelers, cutting off a major nerable” to international restrictions be rigorously monitored. Such pro- market for carriers from both coun- than others because it is “wholly grams may expand to multilateral tries; Air Canada generates 22% of its reliant on cross-border travel.” In agreements in the longer term. annual revenues from U.S. flying. most cases, there is little clarity on China and South Korea were Among the Big Three U.S. legacy when and how restrictions in other among the first to establish proto - carriers, American Airlines is add- markets will be lifted, SIA CEO Goh cols for approved essential business ing back flights most aggressively Choon Phong says. This adds a ma- travelers, starting May 1. China and in July, with plans to operate 55% of jor challenge to network recovery Singapore began a similar program in its domestic schedule, boosted by a planning. early June. These three countries are heavier focus on domestic flying. Del- SIA and Cathay also have a high- also holding talks with other Asia-Pa- ta Air Lines and United Airlines— er proportion of international transit cific countries with a view to forming with greater exposure to long-haul traffic via their hubs than most other essential travel agreements. markets across the Atlantic and Pa- airlines. They rely on connecting traf- For many Asian airlines, access to cific—are taking a more conservative fic flows, such as those between West- China is vital to their networks, and stance, adding back 37% and 30% of ern Europe and Australasia. they want to begin reopening routes to domestic routes, respectively. Singapore and Hong Kong both Chinese cities. However, the Chinese “American Airlines went into the decided to allow transit passengers government has heavily restricted in- crisis in worse shape than Delta or
16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION lows these airlines to meet the limited through their airports starting in ternational service due to COVID-19 United in terms of its balance sheet, as many leased aircraft as those two such routes on U.S. schedules before demand that exists while positioning June. Most foreign travelers will not concerns. The rules were eased slight- but in terms of a domestic rebound, plus Southwest combined. the pandemic. themselves to respond when more be allowed to end their journeys in ly on June 8, but carriers are still lim- its network exposure is the best of the “American’s new fleet, and the ex- markets reopen. In some cases, air- Hong Kong or Singapore, but they will ited to a few weekly flights. three,” says Seth Kaplan, an airline pense associated with that fleet, will GLOBAL OUTLOOK lines have been initially focusing on be able to connect there. Korean Air and Asiana Airlines analyst with Kaplan Research. “The force it to fly more than the network IATA expects the recovery to be slow, routes that have strong cargo and This is an important step for Ca- said in May they intended to add sev- reality is that Delta and United are might support initially,” Swelbar says. with aggregate global airline profit- passenger demand. thay and SIA. Although many of their eral flights to mainland China to their structured as more global airlines. Meanwhile, Southwest has a ability returning in 2022. Profits then For most carriers in the region, strat- key markets for connecting flights June schedule, if approvals could be That’s a great thing to be when the simpler, domestic-heavy network would be “in line with longer-term egies to rebuild international networks remain closed, they can position obtained. But because the restrictions global economy is going well, but to stimulate and tremendous fleet growth trends for passenger and will depend heavily on government themselves to capture transit traffic were not loosened sufficiently, both right now, you’d probably rather have flexibility. The carrier has more cargo traffic,” Chief Economist Brian decisions to reduce cross-border re- as it begins to return. They can also airlines were forced to shelve these American’s network.” than 100 older Boeing 737NGs that Pearce says. strictions. Asia-Pacific countries have ensure that other major connecting plans. Their schedules now list one Beyond the Big Three, the coun- it could park or keep flying and new IATA’s nearer-term outlook sees widely contrasting rates of progress hubs in Asia and elsewhere do not route each through July. try’s domestic carriers are restoring 737 MAXs on the way. a relatively steep recovery of global in containing the pandemic, meaning steal a march on them and gain a This situation highlights that re- capacity at an accelerated clip in July, “Southwest is the wild card,” Swel- airline traffic, down as much as 95% restrictions will ease at different times competitive advantage. suming international services will bolstering the view that international bar says. “Will they get smaller, or year-over-year, to a full-year figure require flexibility for many exposure is a near-term impediment will they take advantage of the op - of 54% below 2019. Next year, traffic Projected U.S. Domestic Traffic Recovery Asian airlines. Plans will often to recovery. Southwest Airlines and portunity to increase their share in will be 29% below the 2019 baseline, have to be changed at short JetBlue Airways, for example, will critical markets?” but up 55% from the anomalous 2020 by Carrier Types notice if governments do not operate 62% and 50% of their respec- Early indications from the airline results. 110 open borders as expected, or tive original schedules, while smaller suggest the latter. “Our progression Pearce says the pattern is similar to how the industry emerged from 100% if new spikes in coronavirus leisure carriers such as Allegiant Air from April all the way through to the cases arise. and Spirit Airlines will operate at 85- last few weeks of December can ba- the global financial crisis in 2008 90 Meanwhile, Australia and 90% of last year’s capacity. sically be thought of as one flat, long, and 2009, albeit with losses at “a New Zealand plan to estab - More aggressive growth by small- steady ramp-up of capacity,” says much larger scale.” 80 lish a travel bubble that would er carriers and conservative advances Southwest Chief Commercial Officer The IATA guidance is based on allow all passengers to fly be- by the Big Three would be a repeat Andrew Watterson. several assumptions but contains 70 Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways tween the two countries with of the post-Great Recession recovery. DAC’s outlook for the U.S. market significant uncertainty. IATA as- Network Carriers* no quarantine requirements. Delta Airport Consultants (DAC) sees projects what it calls a “square-root- sumes the novel coronavirus can be 60 Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says shaped” recovery, combining a steep, contained, a second wave of infec- Southwest Airlines this as a likely scenario, with one no- if it is successful, this could be table exception—Southwest will join initial rise followed by years of min- tions can be avoided, and testing will 50 Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers** a template for opening other its smaller competitors in the more imal growth that mimics that math be effective in 2021. The effects of a
40 international markets one aggressive camp. symbol. Strict capacity discipline by recession, a slow reopening of mar- by one. A joint industry/gov- The Dallas-based carrier’s current the Big Three—Swelbar says annual kets and a cautious return of business 30 ernment working group with schedule has its late-2020 capacity capacity-increase percentage rates travel are also factored in. Important- 2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 representatives from both on par with year-earlier figures. The for American, Delta and United may ly, the forecast is based on a vaccine countries has presented a re- aggressiveness is a sign that South- lag behind GDP growth—will keep not yet becoming available through next year. The pace of the recovery *Includes American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. port on how the travel bubble west is prepared to leverage its pre- the U.S. market from becoming a **Includes Frontier Airlines, Spirit Airlines and Allegiant Air. Source: Delta Air ort onsultants could be implemented. dominantly domestic network to grab yield-eroding market-share battle. could therefore accelerate should a market share from competitors with More headwinds will come from vaccine be found sooner. and will often be difficult to predict. Discussions have begun among NORTH AMERICA weaker balance sheets and hubs to what Swelbar says will be a return Based on the traffic growth, IATA Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Ca- some Asia-Pacific governments about In the U.S., carriers are restoring rebuild that rely on at least some in- of the “hassle factor.” Much as new now believes the airline industry will thay Pacific are particularly focused easing border and quarantine restric- capacity at an uneven pace, largely ternational feed. screening protocols rendered short lose $84 billion in 2020 and $15.8 bil- on international markets reopening, tions to allow some essential travel to depending on their relative exposure The strategy is reminiscent of the flights less practical and all flights lion in 2021, breaking a decade-long as they have no domestic networks. resume. These will initially be bilater- to international flying. Canada-U.S. period after 9/11, when Southwest’s la- less convenient after 9/11, new streak of full-year profits. The indus- Cathay Chairman Patrick Healy says al arrangements between countries so flying remains off limits to all but es- bor-cost advantages, combined with health-screening requirements will try made a $220 billion net profit in that the carrier is “even more vul - that procedures and safeguards can sential travelers, cutting off a major financial frailty among its largest U.S. add time to travel. The Airports 2010-19, and the 2016-19 profit was nerable” to international restrictions be rigorously monitored. Such pro- market for carriers from both coun- peers, left it in position to strike—and Council International suggests build- $120 billion. than others because it is “wholly grams may expand to multilateral tries; Air Canada generates 22% of its strike it did. While American, Delta ing in 1 hr. or more per departure, at IATA expects 2020 revenues to reliant on cross-border travel.” In agreements in the longer term. annual revenues from U.S. flying. and United (and their premerger least at the outset. fall by 50% to $419 billion in 2020 and most cases, there is little clarity on China and South Korea were Among the Big Three U.S. legacy partners) hobbled along for most of The bottom-line result from DAC’s climb back to $598 billion next year. when and how restrictions in other among the first to establish proto - carriers, American Airlines is add- the decade at capacity levels below model indicates a full recovery to “Financially, 2020 will go down as markets will be lifted, SIA CEO Goh cols for approved essential business ing back flights most aggressively those of late 2001, Southwest and 2019-level traffic figures in 2024 at the worst year in the history of avi- Choon Phong says. This adds a ma- travelers, starting May 1. China and in July, with plans to operate 55% of smaller majors, including Alaska and the earliest, and the networks will ation,” says IATA Director General jor challenge to network recovery Singapore began a similar program in its domestic schedule, boosted by a Hawaiian Airlines, plus the ultra-low- not look the same. A conservative and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. “On planning. early June. These three countries are heavier focus on domestic flying. Del- cost segment, grew relative to 2001. approach to growth by the big net- average, every day of this year will add SIA and Cathay also have a high- also holding talks with other Asia-Pa- ta Air Lines and United Airlines— Based on announced aircraft re - work carriers, combined with the $230 million to industry losses.” er proportion of international transit cific countries with a view to forming with greater exposure to long-haul tirements, the fleets of American, added burden created by new pro - He estimates that airlines will carry traffic via their hubs than most other essential travel agreements. markets across the Atlantic and Pa- Delta and United combined are tocols, could be enough to render 2.2 billion passengers this year, a full- airlines. They rely on connecting traf- For many Asian airlines, access to cific—are taking a more conservative “likely” to be at least 17% smaller well some short-haul flying redundant, year mark last seen in 2006, and lose fic flows, such as those between West- China is vital to their networks, and stance, adding back 37% and 30% of into 2022, says DAC Chief Industry Swelbar says. The most vulnerable $37 on every passenger flown. Next ern Europe and Australasia. they want to begin reopening routes to domestic routes, respectively. Strategist William Swelbar. Delta and markets are small and nonhub air- year’s passenger count is projected to Singapore and Hong Kong both Chinese cities. However, the Chinese “American Airlines went into the United have older fleets, while Amer- craft within 180 mi. of a large or me- approach 3.4 billion, or just more than decided to allow transit passengers government has heavily restricted in- crisis in worse shape than Delta or ican, with a younger fleet, has nearly dium hub. There were more than 160 2014’s annual total. c
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Emirates Sees Major Benefits in domestic feed on one end and Emir- ates’ reach into Asia on the other— Tying Up With a Big U.S. Airline could offer similar benefits. But no such deals are in the works. In 2018, the U.S. signed separate > THE AIRLINE HAS NO PLANS FOR GLOBAL ALLIANCE MEMBERSHIP deals with the Qatar and United Arab FEEDING U.S. HUBS IS SEEN AS A MAJOR DRIVER OF GROWTH Emirates governments whereby the > Middle Eastern carriers voluntarily share more complete financial infor- Sean Broderick Washington and Jens Flottau Frankfurt mation. American and Qatar Airways followed up with the codeshare deal, he relationship between U.S. huge amounts of business, because we settling a dispute during which Qatar airlines and Gulf carriers has are the single largest producer . . . com- CEO Akbar Al Baker had threatened to Tbeen hostile for years. Emir- ing out of the East [beyond Europe] leave Oneworld unless the dispute was ates’ launch of a fifth-freedom Airbus into the United States,” Clark says. resolved to his satisfaction. A380 service from Milan to New York “There’s a huge opportunity there that With Qatar now tied to American, in October 2013 led American Airlines, Emirates could bring to the United SkyTeam member Delta and Star Al- Delta Air Lines and United Airlines to States without going into an alliance. It liance co-founder United remain the launch a massive PR campaign about would be a tap that you turned on, sat most attractive U.S.-based global- alleged unfair government subsidies back and watched us fill large numbers carrier partners for Emirates. Clark for Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways and of their airplanes.” says Emirates holds no grudges over the subsidy row but suggests the fallout is at least part of the reason Emirates hopes a tie-up with a big U.S. airline could bolster its Dubai hub. Delta and United have not made any commercial overtures. “That’s where we are,” he says. But that is probably only part of it. The Star Alliance has relatively strict rules for its members’ relation- ships outside of the alliance. The idea is for them not to enter into agree - ments that compete too much with members and weaken their market positions. There are exceptions. Sin- gapore Airlines has a codesharing agreement with Air France-KLM, which is part of SkyTeam. Numerous DUBAI AIRPORTS smaller arrangements are focused on Emirates and request the U.S. govern- Emirates has codeshare agreements feeder services in certain geographies. ment to intervene. and partnerships with several carriers, Emirates, as the largest international The once-massive campaign had be- including Alaska Airlines and JetBlue airline by available seat kilometers come all but unnoticeable before the Airways in the U.S. Clark points to its pre-COVID-19, is a wholly different industry collapsed amid the COVID-19 more extensive link with Oneworld beast. A tie-up with United would be pandemic. In a highly unusual turn, member Qantas as an ideal example seen as negatively influencing transit American and Qatar set aside their of close cooperation that benefits both flows through European hubs, such as publicly traded differences and an- sides and avoids the constraints of a Lufthansa’s in Frankfurt and Munich, nounced a new codeshare deal at the formal airline alliance. between North America and Asia. end of February, an agreement that Emirates and Qantas struck their The same would apply for Delta had been suspended since 2017 in spite original deal in 2013 to codeshare and its partners Air France-KLM and of the two carriers’ Oneworld alliance and leverage services in Dubai, Perth Virgin Atlantic. Delta owns stakes in membership. Delta and Qatar have and Singapore for both carriers’ the two European groups and has no been among the largest shareholders customers. The deal was renewed interest in weakening their business. of LATAM Airlines, now in bankrupt- for another five years in 2018. “The The one scenario that seems to cy. While Etihad is shrinking to bou- Qantas arrangement is a really good elude Emirates—in spite of the compli- tique-airline status, the big question one,” Clark says. “It’s not an alliance, cations of trying to convince a member has been whether Emirates might con- because it was [developed] bilateral- of a global alliance to do business with sider a deal with another U.S. carrier, ly from a commercial and marketing it—is to join one itself. “People like us presumably United or Delta. point of view.” have always charted our own destiny Tim Clark, president of Emirates Clark suggests that a similar ar- and not allowed ourselves to be ham- Airline, has a clear answer: Yes. “It rangement with a large U.S. carrier—to strung by people who don’t think as makes far more sense to have Emir- leverage major hubs such as Emirates’ we do,” Clark says. “Our approach has ates deal with one of the Big Three Dubai base or a U.S. carrier’s large Eu- always been, ‘If you can’t make your [than join a global alliance] and deliver ropean operation, combined with U.S. own way, then don’t bother.’” c
18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Emirates Sees Major Benefits in domestic feed on one end and Emir- Alitalia Has Its Work Cut Out ket,” consultant Andrea Giuricin, CEO ates’ reach into Asia on the other— of TRA Consulting, wrote in a May 27 Tying Up With a Big U.S. Airline could offer similar benefits. But no for Post-COVID-19 Relaunch blog post published on the Istituto such deals are in the works. Bruno Leoni website. In 2018, the U.S. signed separate > ITALY NATIONALIZED ALITALIA AFTER THE COVID-19 CRISIS HIT But with a strong position on only > THE AIRLINE HAS NO PLANS FOR GLOBAL ALLIANCE MEMBERSHIP deals with the Qatar and United Arab a few transatlantic routes, it is un- THE AIRLINE WILL RELAUNCH WITH €3 BILLION ($3.4 BILLION) FEEDING U.S. HUBS IS SEEN AS A MAJOR DRIVER OF GROWTH Emirates governments whereby the > likely that getting the Italian carrier > Middle Eastern carriers voluntarily IN INITIAL CAPITAL back on board will be a priority for share more complete financial infor- the other JV partners, Edmond says. Sean Broderick Washington and Jens Flottau Frankfurt mation. American and Qatar Airways Helen Massy-Beresford Paris “We’ve seen, over the last few years, followed up with the codeshare deal, being part of an immunized JV is im- he relationship between U.S. huge amounts of business, because we settling a dispute during which Qatar hen Alitalia filed for bank- A330-200, A319, A320 and A321 and portant for profitability, but Alitalia is airlines and Gulf carriers has are the single largest producer . . . com- CEO Akbar Al Baker had threatened to ruptcy in May 2017, unable Embraer E175 and E190 aircraft. not coming to this from a position of Tbeen hostile for years. Emir- ing out of the East [beyond Europe] leave Oneworld unless the dispute was Wto stand up to intensifying “The difficulty is Alitalia isn’t start- strength,” Edmond says. ates’ launch of a fifth-freedom Airbus into the United States,” Clark says. resolved to his satisfaction. competition from low-cost carriers in ing with a clean sheet of paper,” says “Long-haul is one of the big assets A380 service from Milan to New York “There’s a huge opportunity there that With Qatar now tied to American, its home market after years of ineffi- Patrick Edmond, head of the aviation in which to invest,” Patuanelli said in in October 2013 led American Airlines, Emirates could bring to the United SkyTeam member Delta and Star Al- ciency, it came as no great surprise to consultancy Altair Advisory. “It’s re- May, also referring to “possible new Delta Air Lines and United Airlines to States without going into an alliance. It liance co-founder United remain the observers of the airline industry. launching as a high-cost carrier. transatlantic alliances.” launch a massive PR campaign about would be a tap that you turned on, sat most attractive U.S.-based global- What nobody would have predict- “It’s hard to see how you build any Now that the partnership has ex- alleged unfair government subsidies back and watched us fill large numbers carrier partners for Emirates. Clark ed was that three years later Alitalia kind of profitable long-haul operation pired, Alitalia plans to make use of for Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways and of their airplanes.” says Emirates holds no grudges over would still be clinging to life. Now out of Rome when Milan is Italy’s eco- codeshares with Delta to drive traffic. the subsidy row but suggests the nationalized, the airline is looking to nomic center. This is something that Alitalia’s alliance membership is also fallout is at least part of the reason make a fresh start after a global pan- has hamstrung Alitalia for decades more important for the carrier than Emirates hopes a tie-up with a big U.S. airline could bolster its Dubai hub. Delta and United have not made any demic that has devastated the com- with attempts to operate a two-hub for SkyTeam itself. “The challenge for commercial overtures. “That’s where mercial air transport industry and led arrangement.” Alitalia is that it hasn’t been able to we are,” he says. to several airline casualties. But that is probably only part of After a fruitless, nearly three-year it. The Star Alliance has relatively search for a buyer, Alitalia was hit hard Alitalia is resuming flights after widespread groundings. strict rules for its members’ relation- by the COVID-19 crisis as flights ground ships outside of the alliance. The idea to a halt. Italy then decided to nation- is for them not to enter into agree - alize the carrier as part of a broader ments that compete too much with economic support package aimed at members and weaken their market helping the country recover from the positions. There are exceptions. Sin- devastating impact of the coronavirus. gapore Airlines has a codesharing Italy’s government has insisted that agreement with Air France-KLM, it does not just want to rescue the air- which is part of SkyTeam. Numerous line, which began life in 1947, but to DUBAI AIRPORTS smaller arrangements are focused on relaunch it as an Italian success story Emirates and request the U.S. govern- Emirates has codeshare agreements feeder services in certain geographies. that will also play a key role in boost- ment to intervene. and partnerships with several carriers, Emirates, as the largest international ing the country’s tourism sector. The once-massive campaign had be- including Alaska Airlines and JetBlue airline by available seat kilometers With €3 billion ($3.3 billion) in fund- come all but unnoticeable before the Airways in the U.S. Clark points to its pre-COVID-19, is a wholly different ing from the Italian state behind it, the industry collapsed amid the COVID-19 more extensive link with Oneworld beast. A tie-up with United would be pressure is now on for the “new Alita- member Qantas as an ideal example seen as negatively influencing transit pandemic. In a highly unusual turn, lia” to prove that is possible. The plan JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET American and Qatar set aside their of close cooperation that benefits both flows through European hubs, such as will also come under scrutiny from the publicly traded differences and an- sides and avoids the constraints of a Lufthansa’s in Frankfurt and Munich, European Commission, which could Competition will be fierce as airlines maintain a premium positioning over nounced a new codeshare deal at the formal airline alliance. between North America and Asia. lead to more delays in the relaunch. gradually emerge from their wide - the years,” Edmond says. “Once upon end of February, an agreement that Emirates and Qantas struck their The same would apply for Delta For Alitalia to succeed, it will need spread groundings, Edmond says. a time, decades ago, Alitalia was seen had been suspended since 2017 in spite original deal in 2013 to codeshare and its partners Air France-KLM and to follow the lead of its European peers Long-haul is one of the areas as a stylish and fancy offering. But it of the two carriers’ Oneworld alliance and leverage services in Dubai, Perth Virgin Atlantic. Delta owns stakes in and downsize its operations to fit the Patuanelli has singled out as a longer- will be a challenge to get back to that.” membership. Delta and Qatar have and Singapore for both carriers’ the two European groups and has no new lower-demand environment. The term focus for the new Alitalia. North The relaunch of the new Alitalia is been among the largest shareholders customers. The deal was renewed interest in weakening their business. International Air Transport Associa- American destinations are an import- just the latest twist in a long-running of LATAM Airlines, now in bankrupt- for another five years in 2018. “The The one scenario that seems to tion (IATA) does not expect air traffic ant area of focus, and the airline will saga. When the coronavirus crisis hit, cy. While Etihad is shrinking to bou- Qantas arrangement is a really good elude Emirates—in spite of the compli- to return to 2019 levels until 2023. have to look for a way to make up for Italy’s government saw no other op- tique-airline status, the big question one,” Clark says. “It’s not an alliance, cations of trying to convince a member “The government’s intention is not the loss of a transatlantic joint venture tion but to nationalize the airline in a has been whether Emirates might con- because it was [developed] bilateral- of a global alliance to do business with yet another rescue of the airline but (JV) with Delta Air Lines, Air France bid to save it. The move sent a strong sider a deal with another U.S. carrier, ly from a commercial and marketing it—is to join one itself. “People like us rather the relaunch of the flag carri- and KLM, which ended Dec. 31, 2019. signal: For Italy, allowing Alitalia to go presumably United or Delta. point of view.” have always charted our own destiny er,” Economic Development Minister The existing antitrust immunity (ATI) out of business was not an option. Tim Clark, president of Emirates Clark suggests that a similar ar- and not allowed ourselves to be ham- Stefano Patuanelli said last month. grant between the airlines expired on “I think Alitalia may be around for a Airline, has a clear answer: Yes. “It rangement with a large U.S. carrier—to strung by people who don’t think as The carrier is planning to ap - May 20, 2020. while, but I don’t think that’s driven by makes far more sense to have Emir- leverage major hubs such as Emirates’ we do,” Clark says. “Our approach has proach that relaunch with just over That exit leaves Alitalia “increas- anything in the air transport space,” ates deal with one of the Big Three Dubai base or a U.S. carrier’s large Eu- always been, ‘If you can’t make your two-thirds of its precrisis fleet of ingly isolated in an increasingly tough Edmond says. “I think that’s just driv- [than join a global alliance] and deliver ropean operation, combined with U.S. own way, then don’t bother.’” c Boeing 777-300ER, 777-200ER, Airbus and competitive air transport mar- en by the political landscape.” c
18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 19 COMMERCIAL AVIATION
ple, a city break. That risk also applies Europe’s LCCs Face Obstacles to visitors to the UK.” The UK government will be review- to Summer Recovery ing the quarantine measure at the end of June, so it could be removed. But > AIRLINES START LEGAL ACTION OVER UK QUARANTINE even so, airlines still face barriers to re- covery, including the pricing dilemma. > LCC s FACE PRICING PRESSURE AS SUMMER SEASON With economic turmoil throughout GETS UNDERWAY the region affecting consumer spend- ing power, LCCs will be the obvious Helen Massy-Beresford Paris choice for cost-conscious consumers who wish to get away this summer. s the summer vacation season Airways, EasyJet and Ryanair have And after months of lockdown, begins, Europe’s travel land- together taken the first step toward Europeans do want to get away—re- Ascape is looking very different legal proceedings, sending a preac- cent data released by price compar- from previous years: Even if the peak tion protocol letter to the government ison site TravelSupermarket.com of the COVID-19 pandemic appears June 5 and describing the measures as showed British consumers made 40% to have passed for many countries, “disproportionate and unfair on Brit- more searches for overseas vacation Europe’s low-cost carriers (LCC) face ish citizens as well as international packages for July, August and Sep- daunting obstacles to recovery. visitors arriving in the UK.” tember in the second part of May, According to Eurocontrol statistics, The 14-day quarantine came into compared with the first two weeks of daily flights in Europe are showing the force June 8, with most residents the month. first significant signs of recovery, with returning to the UK and visitors re- LCCs may even benefit from de - four days of more than 6,000 flights at quired to provide journey and contact mand from consumers who would
the start of June. That is a drop in the JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET ocean compared with last year’s levels. EasyJet is one of three airlines challenging But for airlines, it represents a major the UK government’s quarantine policy. improvement on the virtually empty skies of April and May, when most countries were in strict lockdown. Ryanair plans around 1,000 daily flights from July 1, while EasyJet has said it will resume flights beginning June 15, with about 50% of its 1,022 routes operating in July, although flights will operate at only around 30% of normal July-September capacity. Some LCCs are even poised to take advantage of the post-COVID-19 en- vironment to further their growth details and self-isolate their first 14 normally choose to travel long-haul plans: Budapest, Hungary-based LCC days in the UK, or face a fine of £1,000 but prefer to stay closer to home amid Wizz Air, which has been expanding ($1,300). the ongoing post-pandemic uncertain- rapidly for some time, is hoping to Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has ty. And for newly hesitant travelers, a take advantage of its strength to seize been vocal in his criticism of the mea- short point-to-point service is likely opportunities opened up by the corona- sure, saying on ITV June 3: “What’s sad to be more appealing than a long-haul virus crisis, starting with new bases in about it is that the British government flight wearing a mask. Larnaca, Cyprus, and at Malpensa Air- is introducing this quarantine at the But as LCCs attempt to lure hesi- port in Milan. very time when every other European tant consumers with low prices—such “Many carriers don’t have any government is removing travel restric- as EasyJet’s one-way flights from Lon- money to invest in anything, but we tions, is encouraging visitors to visit don Gatwick Airport to Malaga, Spain, are benefiting from this situation be- again and is trying to restart tourism.” from £22.99—they are increasing their cause we have the financial strength Ryanair now expects to carry 75-80 financial pressure at a time when they to expand,” CEO Jozsef Varadi said in million passengers this year, down from cannot rely on usual high load factors a June 5 interview. 150 million last year. to make the numbers add up. As LCCs take to the skies once again, “As LCCs gradually reintroduce “LCCs are very dependent on high however, they face significant hurdles. flights and try to gauge which routes load factors, and while I think some For example, LCCs that rely heavi- will have the necessary demand to level of travel will return, we won’t see ly on destinations to and from the UK justify those flights, quarantine may the load factors we saw before,” says face an immediate obstacle to their re- act as a demand suppressant,” says Wyatt. Although he thinks LCCs will covery from the UK government’s de- Nicholas Wyatt, a travel and tourism fare better than legacy counterparts, cision to impose a 14-day quarantine on analyst for GlobalData. “For Ryanair “I think there will be a big profitability most international arrivals. and EasyJet, a lot of bookings are for hit,” he adds. c To no one’s surprise, airlines have short trips—a 14-day quarantine does criticized the measure, and British cast doubt on the viability of, for exam- —With Kurt Hofmann in Vienna
20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION ple, a city break. That risk also applies Europe’s LCCs Face Obstacles to visitors to the UK.” All SpaceJet Flying Suspended, the commercial-aircraft subsidiary The UK government will be review- is working toward. to Summer Recovery ing the quarantine measure at the end Production Winding Down to Zero Mitsubishi Aircraft did not directly of June, so it could be removed. But answer a question as to whether and > SPACEJET MANUFACTURING PLANS WILL FOLLOW CERTIFICATION > AIRLINES START LEGAL ACTION OVER UK QUARANTINE even so, airlines still face barriers to re- when flight testing at Moses Lake covery, including the pricing dilemma. MHI SIGNALS COMMITMENT BY COMPLETING CRJ PROGRAM would resume. Again, the likely answer LCC s FACE PRICING PRESSURE AS SUMMER SEASON > > With economic turmoil throughout ACQUISITION GETS UNDERWAY the region affecting consumer spend- The rst SpaceJet prototype, ing power, LCCs will be the obvious pictured here soon after arrival at Helen Massy-Beresford Paris choice for cost-conscious consumers Moses Lake , is no longer ying. who wish to get away this summer. s the summer vacation season Airways, EasyJet and Ryanair have And after months of lockdown, is that the company does not know. For begins, Europe’s travel land- together taken the first step toward Europeans do want to get away—re- the moment, it is just keeping the four Ascape is looking very different legal proceedings, sending a preac- cent data released by price compar- aircraft there, leaving options open from previous years: Even if the peak tion protocol letter to the government ison site TravelSupermarket.com and avoiding the expense of returning of the COVID-19 pandemic appears June 5 and describing the measures as showed British consumers made 40% them to Japan. ITS IS I AIR RA T to have passed for many countries, “disproportionate and unfair on Brit- more searches for overseas vacation Bradley Perrett Beijing In mid-March, the seventh and Europe’s low-cost carriers (LCC) face ish citizens as well as international packages for July, August and Sep- eighth SpaceJets—of the same design daunting obstacles to recovery. visitors arriving in the UK.” tember in the second part of May, udging the outlook for the not know until cost targets have been standard as the sixth—were in the fi - According to Eurocontrol statistics, The 14-day quarantine came into compared with the first two weeks of Mitsubishi Aircraft SpaceJet achieved. And it will not know when nal stages of production. The seventh daily flights in Europe are showing the force June 8, with most residents the month. Jprogram is not easy, not least to resume manufacturing until the re- has now been completed, and work is first significant signs of recovery, with returning to the UK and visitors re- LCCs may even benefit from de - because the company itself is unsure gional jet has been declared airworthy. continuing on the eighth, the compa- four days of more than 6,000 flights at quired to provide journey and contact mand from consumers who would of what it will do. Meeting cost-cut- MHI, which is also the SpaceJet pro- ny says. Production work on other the start of June. That is a drop in the JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET ting objectives has taken priority even gram’s airframe-manufacturing con- SpaceJets has been halted—another ocean compared with last year’s levels. EasyJet is one of three airlines challenging over setting a schedule for achieving tractor, built six prototypes by March, cost-control measure. No manufac- But for airlines, it represents a major airworthiness certification. Yet the fi ve of which conformed to an original turing activity in the program will the UK government’s quarantine policy. improvement on the virtually empty commitment to program completion design that program managers had take place at all once the eighth air- skies of April and May, when most is obvious. realized in 2016 was not certifiable. craft is ready. countries were in strict lockdown. The regional jet program has halt- Four of those fi ve aircraft are at Moses “We will revisit the decision on Ryanair plans around 1,000 daily ed all fl ight testing worldwide and is Lake, where fl ight testing stopped in production after we achieve TC and flights from July 1, while EasyJet has winding down production to zero. April due to the coronavirus pandemic. after a thorough evaluation of the said it will resume flights beginning Staffing at the home of the develop- Of the two other prototypes, both at new state of the aviation industry,” June 15, with about 50% of its 1,022 ment e ort in Nagoya, Japan, will be Nagoya, one is the crucial sixth unit, the company says. routes operating in July, although reduced, Mitsubishi Aircraft says, which follows the certifi able, updated Japanese media variously reported flights will operate at only around 30% briefl y outlining its plans to Aviation design and is the main aircraft for last month that SpaceJet production of normal July-September capacity. Week. This follows earlier news that the remainder of fl ight testing. When was merely being reduced or that it Some LCCs are even poised to take the company would close operations Mitsubishi Aircraft said on May 25 had stopped only because of delays in advantage of the post-COVID-19 en- outside Japan, except the main fl ight- that it was reducing the Moses Lake receiving parts. vironment to further their growth details and self-isolate their first 14 normally choose to travel long-haul test base, at Moses Lake, Washington, operation to preservation of the air- Asked about the size of the develop- plans: Budapest, Hungary-based LCC days in the UK, or face a fine of £1,000 but prefer to stay closer to home amid where operations have been reduced craft there, it said nothing about fl ight ment operation at Nagoya, the compa- Wizz Air, which has been expanding ($1,300). the ongoing post-pandemic uncertain- to preserving the prototypes there. testing at Nagoya. ny says: “There will be impact to our rapidly for some time, is hoping to Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has ty. And for newly hesitant travelers, a On June 1, the industrial group com- But Nagoya fl ight testing had also teams in Nagoya, but plans are still in take advantage of its strength to seize been vocal in his criticism of the mea- short point-to-point service is likely pleted its purchase of the Bombardier been halted as a measure to control the fi nal stages of evaluation.” opportunities opened up by the corona- sure, saying on ITV June 3: “What’s sad to be more appealing than a long-haul CRJ program, the likely foundation of costs, the company said on June 2 in On May 11, MHI said it had dropped virus crisis, starting with new bases in about it is that the British government flight wearing a mask. future SpaceJet maintenance and mar- written answers to Aviation Week development of the smaller of the two Larnaca, Cyprus, and at Malpensa Air- is introducing this quarantine at the But as LCCs attempt to lure hesi- keting. The CRJ business , now called questions. The sixth prototype, called SpaceJet versions, the M100, which was port in Milan. very time when every other European tant consumers with low prices—such MHI RJ Aviation Group, does not in- FTV10, would stay there, it added. tailored for the U.S. market. The fi rst “Many carriers don’t have any government is removing travel restric- as EasyJet’s one-way flights from Lon- clude CRJ manufacturing facilities, “There is a possibility that flight version to be certifi ed will be the M90, money to invest in anything, but we tions, is encouraging visitors to visit don Gatwick Airport to Malaga, Spain, which will wind up production of that testing will begin again in Japan, but which is designed to seat 88 passengers are benefiting from this situation be- again and is trying to restart tourism.” from £22.99—they are increasing their regional jet this year . Bombardier ex- [there are] no specific plans yet for in an all-economy arrangement. cause we have the financial strength Ryanair now expects to carry 75-80 financial pressure at a time when they pected to receive a net profi t of C$550 resumption of flight-test activities,” The SpaceJet program was launched to expand,” CEO Jozsef Varadi said in million passengers this year, down from cannot rely on usual high load factors million ($410 million) from the sale. the company stated. “[The] focus is in 2008, when the type was called the a June 5 interview. 150 million last year. to make the numbers add up. MHI would not have chosen to spend still on cost control and meeting the Mitsubishi Regional Jet, or MRJ. As LCCs take to the skies once again, “As LCCs gradually reintroduce “LCCs are very dependent on high that money —as it had on May 7, when budget directives. Once those have SpaceJet losses, which drove MHI into however, they face significant hurdles. flights and try to gauge which routes load factors, and while I think some it fi nally agreed to the deal —if it no lon- been reached, the company will begin the red in fi scal 2019, are expected to For example, LCCs that rely heavi- will have the necessary demand to level of travel will return, we won’t see ger thought the SpaceJet had a future. rebuilding the plan to reach TC in this o set profi ts fully from other activities ly on destinations to and from the UK justify those flights, quarantine may the load factors we saw before,” says The most recent official outlook new environment.” across the sprawling industrial group face an immediate obstacle to their re- act as a demand suppressant,” says Wyatt. Although he thinks LCCs will for fi rst delivery of the SpaceJet has Announcing its fi nancial results for in fi scal 2020. c covery from the UK government’s de- Nicholas Wyatt, a travel and tourism fare better than legacy counterparts, been no earlier than April 2021. With the year through March 31, MHI said cision to impose a 14-day quarantine on analyst for GlobalData. “For Ryanair “I think there will be a big profitability all the prototypes grounded, the ques- on May 11 it would set an appropriate Aviation Week editors discuss most international arrivals. and EasyJet, a lot of bookings are for hit,” he adds. c tion arises of when Mitsubishi Aircraft budget for the program, consider- whether the regional jet program will sur- To no one’s surprise, airlines have short trips—a 14-day quarantine does expects to get a type certifi cate (TC). ing the group’s fi nancial headwinds. vive —and whether its troubles will benefi t criticized the measure, and British cast doubt on the viability of, for exam- —With Kurt Hofmann in Vienna The company’s answer is that it will This “appropriate budget” is what Embraer.
20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 2 SPACE NASA’ S NEW ERA
> SPACEX PREPS FOR OPERATIONAL FLIGHTS Toward that goal, NASA found kin- dred spirits in two distinct industries: > NASA IS EXTENDING PARTNERSHIPS BEYOND LEO the fast-paced tech world enshrined by SpaceX and the steadfast aero - space domain of Boeing. Bolstered by Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral about $8 billion of taxpayer money, the companies took the lead in de - AS THE U.S. DESCENDED INTO ONE OF ITS signing, developing, testing and ulti- mately flying low-Earth-orbit (LEO) darkest chapters in recent history, with transportation systems for astronauts COMMERCIAL more than 100,000 Americans dead from and other travelers. the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment The SpaceX solution is attached to CREW the International Space Station (ISS) COUNTDOWN levels not seen since the Great Depression now, having reached the milestone of the 1930s and widespread protests over of a crewed flight test well ahead of police brutality and racism, NASA kicked Boeing. SpaceX’s May 30 launch of LOGO PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK NASA astronauts Douglas Hurley off a space mission that may become as and Robert Behnken on a Falcon 9 iconic as the Apollo Moon landing more than 50 years ago. rocket marked the first orbital launch of humans by a private company and The success of the new endeav - endurance. By partnering with private the first launch of astronauts aboard a or will be measured not only by its companies, NASA seeks to build hu- U.S. spaceship since the space shuttle technological achievement—namely man exploration and space transpor- program ended in 2011. restoring U.S. capability to launch tation programs that, unlike Apollo, “It’s a little hard to process at this astronauts into orbit—but also by its will never end. point,” SpaceX founder, CEO and
22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE
and life becoming multiplanetary for three liquid-fueled main engines were the first time time in the 4.5 billion fueled before astronauts arrived at NASA’ S year history of Earth,” Musk adds. the launchpad. If the ongoing Demonstration “Hearing the venting and the valve Mission-2 (Demo-2) is successful, sounds and the little vibrations associ- SpaceX could be ready to fly its first ated with the fueling operation was a long-duration crew rotation mission new experience for us,” Behnken told on Aug. 30. reporters on June 1. NEW ERA “We’re at the dawn of a new age, NASA’s safety oversight board also the beginning of a space revolution,” delved into SpaceX’s use of an au- says NASA Deputy Administrator Jim tonomous flight termination system Morhard. “This is really something on the Falcon 9, among other issues. much bigger than all of us. Our hope Traditionally, the responsibility for and prayer is to inspire the next gen- triggering destruction of a wayward eration, give hope for many people who booster rests in the hands of a range need it right now.” safety officer on the ground. It is a testament to the preparation “SpaceX and Boeing are very dif- of the joint NASA-SpaceX team that in ferent in terms of how they approach the days leading up to the Falcon 9’s systems engineering and integration,” 3:22 p.m. EDT liftoff on May 30, the pri- ASAP member George Nield tells Avi- mary concern was the weather. Flori- ation Week. “The traditional approach da’s fickle summertime storm cycle this is [to] do lots and lots of analysis until year started early, dashing plans for an you’re very confident that everything initial launch attempt on May 27. With is going to work as you laid it out.” the potential for rocket-triggered light- SpaceX has a more agile process, Former NASA astronaut Karen ning in the skies around Cape Canaver- which is to build something, test it and Nyberg, spouse of Demo-2 Crew Dragon al, the Demo-2 countdown was halted if it does not work as expected, change with 16 min. 53 sec. left on the clock. it, says Nield. “It can be very frustrat- Commander Douglas Hurley, and their “It is good for the agency to have a ing and scary for people used to the son watched the liftoff of Hurley and wet dress rehearsal behind us,” NASA other approach because a typical astronaut Robert Behnken on May 30. Administrator Jim Bridenstine said engineer will want to lock down the on May 29. design right at the beginning and then The scrub provided the first demon- not change anything going forward.” stration—albeit an unplanned one—of The traditional approach makes what was once a highly controversial components and systems easier to plan to fuel the booster with 1.2 mil- track since approved designs stay the KAREN NYBERG lion lb. of superchilled rocket-grade same. But Nield notes it also “locks kerosene and liquid oxygen after the you into whatever level of safety—or > SPACEX PREPS FOR OPERATIONAL FLIGHTS Toward that goal, NASA found kin- Chief Engineer Elon Musk said after astronauts were strapped inside the unsafety—that that system has.” dred spirits in two distinct industries: the launch. “It’s difficult to come up Crew Dragon capsule perched on the The SpaceX way presented a chal- > NASA IS EXTENDING PARTNERSHIPS BEYOND LEO the fast-paced tech world enshrined with cohesive sentences that make rocket’s nose. lenge for NASA as it tried to assess by SpaceX and the steadfast aero - any sense. . . . It’s just ‘wow’” (AW&ST The procedure, known as “load the robustness of the company’s sys- space domain of Boeing. Bolstered by June 1-14, p. 56). and go,” was once a showstopper for tems engineering and integration. Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral about $8 billion of taxpayer money, “This is hopefully the first step on a NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory “They came up with something that’s the companies took the lead in de - journey toward a civilization on Mars Panel (ASAP). The space shuttles’ really impressive, frankly—a software AS THE U.S. DESCENDED INTO ONE OF ITS signing, developing, testing and ulti- program they call a ‘bill of design’ sys- mately flying low-Earth-orbit (LEO) tem, which is used for all aspects of the darkest chapters in recent history, with transportation systems for astronauts manufacture, the workflow process and COMMERCIAL more than 100,000 Americans dead from and other travelers. the verification review,” says Nield, the the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment The SpaceX solution is attached to former head of the FAA’s Office of Com- CREW the International Space Station (ISS) JOEL KOWSKY/NASA mercial Space Transportation, which COUNTDOWN levels not seen since the Great Depression now, having reached the milestone will be licensing the space taxis after of the 1930s and widespread protests over of a crewed flight test well ahead of they have been certified by NASA. police brutality and racism, NASA kicked Boeing. SpaceX’s May 30 launch of “Everything is online, so somebody in a certain shift can see what happened LOGO PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK off a space mission that may become as NASA astronauts Douglas Hurley Kathy Lueders, and Robert Behnken on a Falcon 9 NASA’s Commercial in the last shift,” says Nield. “It’s all tied iconic as the Apollo Moon landing more than 50 years ago. rocket marked the first orbital launch Crew Program together through the component draw- ings, notes and production procedures. of humans by a private company and manager, watched the The success of the new endeav - endurance. By partnering with private the first launch of astronauts aboard a And it’s all automated so when you get or will be measured not only by its companies, NASA seeks to build hu- U.S. spaceship since the space shuttle crewed flight test reach to the end, you can see when this test technological achievement—namely man exploration and space transpor- program ended in 2011. the ISS May 31. was done and what the results were, restoring U.S. capability to launch tation programs that, unlike Apollo, “It’s a little hard to process at this how changing a particular valve has an astronauts into orbit—but also by its will never end. point,” SpaceX founder, CEO and impact on this other system.”
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In addition, the system automatically catches deviations such as hu- man error in data entry. “Boy, when some of the longtime NASA managers hear about these things, they’re just drooling because they had nothing like that in the era of the shuttle,” says Nield. “Everything was manual and on paper. It was very di cult to understand what the impacts of all the various systems were and how to quickly make a change that would roll downhill through all the other systems that were involved. “It took a while to deploy [the SpaceX system], understand it and implement it completely, but now that it’s being used, it is certainly an impressive system,” he adds. “They have given NASA almost complete access to that system so they don’t even have to be standing here looking over every component being installed or watching every test, because they can go in and check what the status is and understand what the impacts of a particular test are by just questioning that software system.” The harmonic convergence of NASA and SpaceX will be tested throughout the ongoing Demo-2 mission, laying the foundation for cooperation on the Trump administration’s signature space initiative, K S LE /NASA Artemis, and its goal to land two U.S. astronauts—specifi cally a man Ro b e r t B e h n ke n and a woman—on the south pole of the Moon in 2024. About the only surprise from the Demo-2 mission so far was the crew’s Age: 49 Education: Washington University; unexpectedly sporty ride to orbit on the Falcon 9’s upper stage, powered California Institute of Technology by a single Merlin 1D vacuum engine. “It was a smoother fi rst stage, a little rougher second stage than we saw Robert Behnken joined the Astronaut Corps in on the shuttle,” says Behnken, the Demo-2 joint operations commander. 2000 after serving as a U.S. Air Force test en- “The shuttle had solid rocket boosters to start with, and those burned gineer on the Lockheed Martin F-22 and other very rough for the fi rst 2.5 min.,” adds Hurley, Crew Dragon commander. programs. He ew two space shuttle missions, “The fi rst stage with Falcon 9, with the nine [liquid-fueled] Merlin engines STS-123 in March 2008 and STS-130 in February and roughly the same amount of time, was a much smoother ride. 2010, logging more than 708 hr. in orbit and more “Where the di erences started . . . was at staging,” he continues. “The than 37 hr. spacewalking during six outings. Behnken, an Air Force colonel with a doctorate ISS Commander Christopher in mechanical engineering, served as chief of the Cassidy, right, and Russian Astronaut O ce from July 2012 to July 2015 and cosmonauts Anatoly Ivanishin, then became one of four astronauts embedded left, and Ivan Vagner, second with both of NASA’s Commercial Crew provid- from left, greeted Demo-2 ers, SpaceX and Boeing, working on developing astronaut Behnken. space taxis. Behnken is now the joint operations com- mander for the rst crewed ight of the SpaceX Crew Dragon, which launched on May 30, 2020. “The thing that’s really been the most exciting for me working with the SpaceX team is their agility to react to something that we identify as an area that could be improved, or some area that is a problem—the way that they’re able to quickly resolve it,” he said during a prelaunch interview. He is married to NASA astronaut Megan McArthur and father of their six-year-old son, who received a call from his dad shortly after the Dragon reached the ISS. “I just wanted to under- stand what his experience [of the launch] was and share that a little bit with him while it was still fresh in his mind,” Behnken said. He and Crew Dragon Commander Douglas Hurley could spend up to four months at the ISS, helping out the short-sta ed Expedition 63 crew.
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With the launch of In addition, the system automatically catches deviations such as hu- astronauts Douglas Hurley man error in data entry. and Robert Behnken aboard “Boy, when some of the longtime NASA managers hear about these a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule things, they’re just drooling because they had nothing like that in the era of the shuttle,” says Nield. “Everything was manual and on paper. It was on May 30, the U.S. nine-year very di cult to understand what the impacts of all the various systems hiatus in human orbital were and how to quickly make a change that would roll downhill through flight came to an end. all the other systems that were involved. “It took a while to deploy [the SpaceX system], understand it and implement it completely, but now that it’s being used, it is certainly an impressive system,” he adds. “They have given NASA almost complete access to that system so they don’t even have to be standing here looking over every component being installed or watching every test, because they can go in and check what the status is and understand what the KIM SHIFLETT/NASA impacts of a particular test are by just questioning that software system.” The harmonic convergence of NASA and SpaceX will be tested throughout the ongoing Demo-2 mission, laying the foundation for cooperation on the Trump administration’s signature space initiative, K S LE /NASA Artemis, and its goal to land two U.S. astronauts—specifi cally a man Ro b e r t B e h n ke n and a woman—on the south pole of the Moon in 2024. Douglas Hurley About the only surprise from the Demo-2 mission so far was the crew’s Age: 49 Education: Washington University; unexpectedly sporty ride to orbit on the Falcon 9’s upper stage, powered Age: 53 Education: Tulane University California Institute of Technology by a single Merlin 1D vacuum engine. Doug Hurley was selected as an astronaut by NASA “It was a smoother fi rst stage, a little rougher second stage than we saw Robert Behnken joined the Astronaut Corps in on the shuttle,” says Behnken, the Demo-2 joint operations commander. in 2000, but it was nine years before he made his 2000 after serving as a U.S. Air Force test en- “The shuttle had solid rocket boosters to start with, and those burned way to space as the pilot of STS-127, a July 2009 gineer on the Lockheed Martin F-22 and other very rough for the fi rst 2.5 min.,” adds Hurley, Crew Dragon commander. BILL INGALLS/NASA space shuttle mission to deliver and install the programs. He ew two space shuttle missions, “The fi rst stage with Falcon 9, with the nine [liquid-fueled] Merlin engines final two components of the Japanese Experiment STS-123 in March 2008 and STS-130 in February and roughly the same amount of time, was a much smoother ride. Module to the International Space Station (ISS). 2010, logging more than 708 hr. in orbit and more “Where the di erences started . . . was at staging,” he continues. “The He returned to space for the shuttle program’s than 37 hr. spacewalking during six outings. STS-135 finale in July 2011, a cumulative time Behnken, an Air Force colonel with a doctorate in orbit of more than 648 hr. Nine years later, ISS Commander Christopher in mechanical engineering, served as chief of the Hurley found himself in the commander’s seat Cassidy, right, and Russian Astronaut O ce from July 2012 to July 2015 and for the first piloted flight test of NASA’s Commer- cosmonauts Anatoly Ivanishin, then became one of four astronauts embedded cial Crew Program. left, and Ivan Vagner, second with both of NASA’s Commercial Crew provid- Hurley, a retired colonel in the Marine Corps, from left, greeted Demo-2 ers, SpaceX and Boeing, working on developing says the time spent as a Boeing F/A-18 E/F Super astronaut Behnken. space taxis. Hornet test pilot helped him prepare the Behnken is now the joint operations com- NASA-SpaceX team, many of whom were con- mander for the rst crewed ight of the SpaceX ducting their first human spaceflight. “All along Crew Dragon, which launched on May 30, 2020. in the process that you see in the military, there “The thing that’s really been the most exciting for are delays and technical challenges, and you me working with the SpaceX team is their agility have to work through them,” says Hurley. “There to react to something that we identify as an area were many reasons why we didn’t make the initial that could be improved, or some area that is a [Demo-2] launch date, but that’s generally how problem—the way that they’re able to quickly technological development works.” resolve it,” he said during a prelaunch interview. He launched with fellow astronaut and best He is married to NASA astronaut Megan friend Robert Behnken onboard a SpaceX Crew McArthur and father of their six-year-old son, Dragon capsule on May 30, 2020, and reached who received a call from his dad shortly after the the ISS a day later. “This was an extremely long Dragon reached the ISS. “I just wanted to under- road for Bob and I,” Hurley told reporters during an stand what his experience [of the launch] was infight press conference. “It’s taken hard work and and share that a little bit with him while it was still dedication over almost nine years to get us where fresh in his mind,” Behnken said. we are now. . . . Take a message from NASA,” he He and Crew Dragon Commander Douglas added. “Anything is possible.” Hurley could spend up to four months at the ISS, Hurley is married to retired NASA astronaut helping out the short-sta ed Expedition 63 crew. Karen Nyberg and is father of their 10-year-old son. NASA
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Hale, now a consultant at Special Aerospace Services. The verdict should be in later this year. Hurley and Behnken transferred to the ongoing Expedition 63 crew, which is short-staffed due to U.S. paid rides on Soyuz coming to an end. The flight readiness of SpaceX’s next Crew Dragon will drive how long the Demo-2 mission lasts. The capsule, which the crew named Endeavour after the retired space shuttle that hosted both astronauts’ first flights, is designed to remain in orbit for up to 119 days. Operational A SpaceX Crew Dragon vehicles will remain docked to the ISS capsule carrying astronauts for six months. for the the first time made What the U.S. will be like when an automated approach and Hurley and Behnken return is uncer- docking at the ISS May 31, tain. Amid ongoing political and eco- nomic turmoil, peaceful and not-so- 19 hr. after reaching orbit. peaceful demonstrations and a deadly NASA virus that has yet to be stemmed, first-stage engine shut off, and then it began mulling whether the commer- NASA is pressing for a 12% budget hike takes a second between the booster cial partnering agreements estab- for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 to separating and the Merlin vacuum en- lished under the George W. Bush ad- $25.2 billion, in an attempt to pull off a gine starting. At that point, we go from ministration to fly cargo to the ISS in crewed lunar landing in 2024. roughly 3g to 0g in half a second, prob- the post-shuttle era could be a model The parallels between the social ably. Then when that Merlin vacuum for transporting astronauts as well. unrest and violence of the 1960s and fires, we start accelerating again for In 2010, during the Obama admin- ’70s, which became a backdrop for the the next 5-6 min. until we achieve orbit. istration, NASA launched the Com- Apollo Moon landings, and present day “It’ll be interesting to talk to the mercial Crew Development program, are eerily similar. “We have had mo- SpaceX folks to find out why it was a lit- ments in American history tle bit rougher ride on the second stage where we have had challenges than it was for the shuttle on those as a nation,” Bridenstine told three main engines,” Hurley adds. reporters after the Demo-2 SpaceX’s capsule is designed to launch. “We think back to fly autonomously, but Hurley and Behnken had two opportunities be- NASA Administrator Jim fore reaching the ISS to input manual Bridenstine, left, President controls, via touch screens, and test Donald Trump, Vice President the Dragon’s handling characteristics. Mike Pence and Second Lady “It flew very well, very crisp . . . just about like the simulators,” Hurley Karen Pence watched the radioed to dual Mission Control Cen- launch on a balcony at ters at SpaceX headquarters in Haw- Kennedy Space Center. thorne, California, and at the Johnson Space Center in Houston. “It’s been a the 1960s with the Vietnam spectacular spaceship so far,” he noted War, the civil rights abuses on Twitter. and the civil rights protests. NASA has been preparing for a new We think about the height of chapter in human space exploration the Cold War. And yet we had BILL INGALLS/NASA since the Columbia Accident Inves- this moment in time—July tigation Board in 2003 called for the aiming not only to save money and 20, 1969—when all of America stopped, retirement of the space shuttles as provide a U.S. alternative to the Rus- literally just stopped, because we had soon as ISS assembly was complete. sian Soyuz crew transport system but American astronauts walking on the Initially, the agency planned to have also seed a new industry for commer- surface of the Moon. And then we re- its Orion deep-space capsule, in devel- cial space travel. peated that five more times. opment since 2006, double as an ISS “The Commercial Crew program “The Apollo program eventually crew transport. has been a great experiment by NASA ended,” he adds. “But what is great But facing budgets that would not to see if commercial companies can about NASA is that we bring people support both LEO and deep-space do this particular job,” says former together. Everybody loves exploration; transportation initiatives, the agency shuttle program manager Wayne it’s unifying.” c
26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE
Hale, now a consultant at Special Aerospace Services. The verdict should be in later this year. Hurley and Behnken transferred C-390 MILLENNIUM to the ongoing Expedition 63 crew, It’s been a few months since the C-390 MILLENNIUM which is short-staffed due to U.S. paid airlifters started serving the Brazilian Air Force, rides on Soyuz coming to an end. The READY FOR fulfilling the missions for which they were designed flight readiness of SpaceX’s next Crew Dragon will drive how long the Demo-2 with complete success, and in the coming months mission lasts. more units will join the service. At the same time, The capsule, which the crew named the Portuguese Government signed a contract for THE MISSION the acquisition of five units to be operated by the Endeavour after the retired space shuttle that hosted both astronauts’ Portuguese Air Force. This is a significant moment first flights, is designed to remain in in the C-390 MILLENNIUM program, marking its orbit for up to 119 days. Operational Entry Into Service and the confirmation of the A SpaceX Crew Dragon vehicles will remain docked to the ISS aircraft’s operational effectiveness within NATO. capsule carrying astronauts for six months. The combination of 21st century, state-of-the-art for the the first time made What the U.S. will be like when advanced systems and proven engines, in conjunction with a worldwide sustainment alliance of reputable an automated approach and Hurley and Behnken return is uncer- suppliers, makes the C-390 MILLENNIUM the docking at the ISS May 31, tain. Amid ongoing political and eco- nomic turmoil, peaceful and not-so- most reliable, easy to operate and efficient aircraft 19 hr. after reaching orbit. peaceful demonstrations and a deadly in its class. NASA virus that has yet to be stemmed, first-stage engine shut off, and then it began mulling whether the commer- NASA is pressing for a 12% budget hike takes a second between the booster cial partnering agreements estab- for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 to separating and the Merlin vacuum en- lished under the George W. Bush ad- $25.2 billion, in an attempt to pull off a gine starting. At that point, we go from ministration to fly cargo to the ISS in crewed lunar landing in 2024. roughly 3g to 0g in half a second, prob- the post-shuttle era could be a model The parallels between the social ably. Then when that Merlin vacuum for transporting astronauts as well. unrest and violence of the 1960s and fires, we start accelerating again for In 2010, during the Obama admin- ’70s, which became a backdrop for the the next 5-6 min. until we achieve orbit. istration, NASA launched the Com- Apollo Moon landings, and present day “It’ll be interesting to talk to the mercial Crew Development program, are eerily similar. “We have had mo- SpaceX folks to find out why it was a lit- ments in American history tle bit rougher ride on the second stage where we have had challenges than it was for the shuttle on those as a nation,” Bridenstine told three main engines,” Hurley adds. reporters after the Demo-2 SpaceX’s capsule is designed to launch. “We think back to fly autonomously, but Hurley and Behnken had two opportunities be- NASA Administrator Jim fore reaching the ISS to input manual Bridenstine, left, President controls, via touch screens, and test Donald Trump, Vice President the Dragon’s handling characteristics. Mike Pence and Second Lady “It flew very well, very crisp . . . just about like the simulators,” Hurley Karen Pence watched the radioed to dual Mission Control Cen- launch on a balcony at ters at SpaceX headquarters in Haw- Kennedy Space Center. thorne, California, and at the Johnson Space Center in Houston. “It’s been a the 1960s with the Vietnam spectacular spaceship so far,” he noted War, the civil rights abuses on Twitter. and the civil rights protests. NASA has been preparing for a new We think about the height of chapter in human space exploration the Cold War. And yet we had BILL INGALLS/NASA since the Columbia Accident Inves- this moment in time—July tigation Board in 2003 called for the aiming not only to save money and 20, 1969—when all of America stopped, retirement of the space shuttles as provide a U.S. alternative to the Rus- literally just stopped, because we had soon as ISS assembly was complete. sian Soyuz crew transport system but American astronauts walking on the Initially, the agency planned to have also seed a new industry for commer- surface of the Moon. And then we re- its Orion deep-space capsule, in devel- cial space travel. peated that five more times. opment since 2006, double as an ISS “The Commercial Crew program “The Apollo program eventually crew transport. has been a great experiment by NASA ended,” he adds. “But what is great But facing budgets that would not to see if commercial companies can about NASA is that we bring people support both LEO and deep-space do this particular job,” says former together. Everybody loves exploration; transportation initiatives, the agency shuttle program manager Wayne it’s unifying.” c c-390.com
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Raytheon’s AIM-120 Amraam has WESTERN EDGE kept more or less the same shape throughout its life, but technology has allowed the weapon to expand its > TECHNOLOGY BOOSTS AIR-TO-AIR MISSILE SUPREMACY OF THE WEST range, engagement envelope and PK. Advancements in modern electron- > AESA-BASED ACTIVE SEEKERS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE ics and miniaturization of components COMMONPLACE ON MISSILES can open additional room in the mis- sile body to squeeze in more propel- Tony Osborne London lant. Engineers must strike a balance, however, to maintain the weapon’s WHEN THEN- SWEDISH make sure that European air forces aerodynamic loading and mass, as PART Air Force chief Mats at least have a weapon that maintains well as its center of gravity, as the 2 OF 2 Helgesson declared the long-range [beyond-visual-range] supe- propellant is used up. Other options MBDA’s Meteor beyond- riority over weapons like the [Chinese] to expand range might be to use a dif- visual-range air-to-air missile in ser- PL-15 in a way that the AIM-120 family ferent mix of propellants. The Defense vice in 2016, he hailed the weapon as a cannot. I think we will see more ram- Science and Technology Laboratory “game changer” for the country’s Saab jet-powered weapons from other manu- in the UK has been exploring the use Gripen fighter fleet. It meant the Gripen at last had a weapon the Swedish Air Force knew would outrange the air-to-air weap- ons being fielded by the Russians in the Baltic region. “It gives us capabilities that we really need to defend our airspace,” Helgesson said then. “That means a lot to the air defense of a small country.” The principle of the Meteor’s ram- jet is relatively simple: At launch, the weapon is boosted to speed by a rocket motor, propelled by fuel that fills the void in the missile case that will ultimately become the ramjet’s combustion chamber. As the weapon builds up to speeds beyond Mach 2 and the rocket pro - pellant is expended, it transitions to Since its introduction on the Gripen, the MBDA Meteor ramjet operation, allowing it to be is now operational on the Eurofighter Typhoon and the throttled to speeds of Mach 5. Dassault Rafale. Integration for the F-35 is ongoing. As well as boosting range, this also increases the weapon’s lethality, STEFAN KALM/SAAB known as its probability of kill (PK), facturers in the future as countries look of a process called Resonant Acoustic MBDA asserts, because it is able to to improve the ability of nonstealthy Mixing (RAM), which allows propel- maintain energy in the final moments assets to contribute kinetic fires from lants and even warhead explosive to of the engagement and react if the tar- outside the highest-threat airspace.” be better mixed together. get aircraft attempts to maneuver out Ramjet technology goes a long way BAE Systems’ experiments with of the weapon’s path. toward resolving the issue of long- RAM-mixed explosives yielded a 20% “The mantra of Meteor was to range performance with high-end increase in explosive power than more achieve the range of Phoenix with capability without needing an ever- traditional forms of mixing. If similar the agility of Amraam [Advanced larger aircraft to carry the engines. improvements can be made in the mix- Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile],” But it comes with a premium price tag ing of propellant, this could lead to ad- says Russ Martin, head of military that does not fit every missile need. ditional space being saved inside a mis- advisors at MBDA. “If you want to Instead, manufacturers are explor- sile body. In the new version of France’s increase range there is compromise; ing a number of new approaches to Mica NG missile, to debut around 2026, you can add more propellant,” he says. extend range. engineers plan to use a dual-pulse mo- “But you cannot keep putting bigger One of the easiest solutions is to add tor developed by Roxel that provides and bigger missiles on fewer and few- more fuel to the missile. But this is not the weapon with up to 30% more range. er fighters.” easy if the weapon is constrained by the The pulse also can be used to provide Justin Bronk, an airpower and tech- need to maintain form factors, a com- more power when dealing with highly nology research fellow at the London- mon issue when a missile is integrated maneuverable targets. based Royal United Services Institute onto advanced combat aircraft with fly- Cleaning up weapon aerodynam- says: “What Meteor has done is to by-wire control systems, for example. ics is another option. While they look
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Each iteration of the Amraam’s development Raytheon’s AIM-120 Amraam has has introduced miniaturized systems and WESTERN EDGE kept more or less the same shape technologies to increase range and throughout its life, but technology lethality. Cropped fins were used has allowed the weapon to expand its to allow the weapon to squeeze range, engagement envelope and PK. > TECHNOLOGY BOOSTS AIR-TO-AIR MISSILE SUPREMACY OF THE WEST into the weapon bays of Advancements in modern electron- > AESA-BASED ACTIVE SEEKERS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE ics and miniaturization of components low-observable fighters. COMMONPLACE ON MISSILES can open additional room in the mis- sile body to squeeze in more propel- Tony Osborne London lant. Engineers must strike a balance, Raytheon’s AIM-9 Sidewinder has however, to maintain the weapon’s evolved rapidly since its development WHEN THEN- SWEDISH make sure that European air forces aerodynamic loading and mass, as in the 1950s and is now available in the well as its center of gravity, as the PART Air Force chief Mats at least have a weapon that maintains AIM-9X version as a highly agile dogfighting missile. 2 OF 2 Helgesson declared the long-range [beyond-visual-range] supe- propellant is used up. Other options TURBOSQUID MBDA’s Meteor beyond- riority over weapons like the [Chinese] to expand range might be to use a dif- visual-range air-to-air missile in ser- PL-15 in a way that the AIM-120 family ferent mix of propellants. The Defense sleek, many air-to-air missiles feature data link. That allowed it to commu- comes to fitting the technologies into vice in 2016, he hailed the weapon as a cannot. I think we will see more ram- Science and Technology Laboratory drag-inducing components that allow nicate back and forth with the launch the small nosecone of an air-to-air “game changer” for the country’s Saab jet-powered weapons from other manu- in the UK has been exploring the use them to be slid on rails and connect aircraft, while a conformal antenna on missile, but Israel’s Rafael has taken Gripen fighter fleet. to the aircraft via umbilical cable. the nose offers a wider field of view to the first steps. Its Stunner surface- It meant the Gripen at last had a That physical connection to the air- receive targeting updates from more to-air missile, jointly developed with weapon the Swedish Air Force knew craft can potentially be replaced with angles in flight. Raytheon, uses both radar and im- would outrange the air-to-air weap- a wireless one. Such proposals have Other major steps to improve weap- aging seekers, installed inside an ons being fielded by the Russians in been suggested for the weapons that on lethality will be the introduction of asymmetric nose. It seems likely the the Baltic region. might equip Britain’s future Tempest new technology into radio-frequency technology will make the leap to an “It gives us capabilities that we combat aircraft. (RF) seekers, such as active, electroni- air-to-air missile in the coming years, really need to defend our airspace,” It remains unclear, however, what cally scanned array (AESA) technology. perhaps in the next-generation Python Helgesson said then. “That means a lot technologies have been adopted for Just as AESAs have revolutionized or Derby missiles developed by Rafael. to the air defense of a small country.” the U.S. Air Force’s future long-range the fighter’s fire-control radar, the MBDA is currently advancing the The principle of the Meteor’s ram- air-to-air missile—the Lockheed technology is able to bring similar development of the Mica NG, a rad- jet is relatively simple: At launch, Martin AIM-260. Details of the air benefits to missiles with their low- ically reengineered version of the the weapon is boosted to speed by a intercept missile program, developed er-energy requirements compared legacy Mica missile, which was devel- rocket motor, propelled by fuel that as a counter to the Chinese PL-15, to more conventional active seekers. oped in the 1980s and 1990s for the fills the void in the missile case that were revealed last summer (AW&ST They are also better able to deal with Rafale family (AW&ST June 17-30, will ultimately become the ramjet’s July 1-14, 2019, p. 36). electronic countermeasures. 2019, p. 102). The Mica was developed combustion chamber. According to the Air Force, the “AESA technology has virtually no through France’s experience with the As the weapon builds up to speeds AIM-260 shares similar dimensions downsides apart from being a tech- Magic family of IR-guided missiles and beyond Mach 2 and the rocket pro - with the AIM-120 and provides “sig- nology that is difficult to master,” says the R.530 family of semiactive radar- pellant is expended, it transitions to Since its introduction on the Gripen, the MBDA Meteor nificantly greater” range. The service Bronk. guided missiles. The Mica, which ramjet operation, allowing it to be is now operational on the Eurofighter Typhoon and the has also said it does not use air-breath- Japan’s AAM-4B already has a was developed in two versions—one throttled to speeds of Mach 5. Dassault Rafale. Integration for the F-35 is ongoing. ing propulsion, leading to speculation locally developed AESA seeker. Offi- an IR-guided version, the other an As well as boosting range, this about what approach could provide cials say the weapon can switch to its RF-seeker version—makes use of the also increases the weapon’s lethality, STEFAN KALM/SAAB the additional range. Missile experts own guidance at a 40% greater range same airframe but features minor known as its probability of kill (PK), facturers in the future as countries look of a process called Resonant Acoustic interviewed by Aviation Week sug- than the AIM-120, allowing the fight- modifications at the nose to package MBDA asserts, because it is able to to improve the ability of nonstealthy Mixing (RAM), which allows propel- gest several different approaches to er updating the missile to “snip” the the different seeker heads. maintain energy in the final moments assets to contribute kinetic fires from lants and even warhead explosive to the problem, with miniaturization of bond between fighter and missile ear- The Mica can be used in both the of the engagement and react if the tar- outside the highest-threat airspace.” be better mixed together. the weapon’s electronics at the top of lier and from a much safer distance— within-visual-range and beyond- get aircraft attempts to maneuver out Ramjet technology goes a long way BAE Systems’ experiments with the list. It is an approach that has al- allowing the aircraft to engage anoth- visual-range environment, making of the weapon’s path. toward resolving the issue of long- RAM-mixed explosives yielded a 20% ready worked well for the weapon that er target. The scalability of an AESA it one of only a handful of Western “The mantra of Meteor was to range performance with high-end increase in explosive power than more the AIM-260 will go on to replace, the means the technology can be used on IR-guided missiles designed to oper- achieve the range of Phoenix with capability without needing an ever- traditional forms of mixing. If similar AIM-120. smaller missiles as well. MBDA is al- ate beyond visual range. the agility of Amraam [Advanced larger aircraft to carry the engines. improvements can be made in the mix- The Amraam is the West’s preemi- ready planning to use an AESA in the Progressive upgrades have kept Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile],” But it comes with a premium price tag ing of propellant, this could lead to ad- nent long-range air-to-air missile, with RF-guided version of the Mica NG. the West’s shorter-range missiles rel- says Russ Martin, head of military that does not fit every missile need. ditional space being saved inside a mis- 10 kills to its credit. Miniaturization of In the same way that AESA technol- evant. Indeed, the alphabet has almost advisors at MBDA. “If you want to Instead, manufacturers are explor- sile body. In the new version of France’s the Amraam’s components has been ogy is less prone to jamming, imaging run out of letters to define the number increase range there is compromise; ing a number of new approaches to Mica NG missile, to debut around 2026, part of the weapon’s development infrared (IIR) technologies can help of upgrades for the AIM-9 Sidewind- you can add more propellant,” he says. extend range. engineers plan to use a dual-pulse mo- throughout its life. The AIM-120C-7, prevent the missile from being seduced er, now in its 9X derivative. Since the “But you cannot keep putting bigger One of the easiest solutions is to add tor developed by Roxel that provides for example, introduced electron- by decoy flares. There is discussion 9X was developed in the early 2000s, and bigger missiles on fewer and few- more fuel to the missile. But this is not the weapon with up to 30% more range. ics on round, rather than longitudi- about whether multimode seekers, Raytheon has adopted a Block up - er fighters.” easy if the weapon is constrained by the The pulse also can be used to provide nal cards, opening additional space. perhaps combining RF and IIR to work grade approach to the weapon. Justin Bronk, an airpower and tech- need to maintain form factors, a com- more power when dealing with highly When it came to adding more capa- together, could result in weapons less From the AIM-9M to the 9X, nology research fellow at the London- mon issue when a missile is integrated maneuverable targets. bility to the Delta model of the weap- susceptible to countermeasures. Raytheon added thrust-vectoring based Royal United Services Institute onto advanced combat aircraft with fly- Cleaning up weapon aerodynam- on, which arrived on the front line in There are costs and technical hur- vanes and flight controls for extreme says: “What Meteor has done is to by-wire control systems, for example. ics is another option. While they look 2015, Raytheon added a bidirectional dles to overcome, particularly when it agility. The company also strength-
28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 29 DEFENSE
ened the airframe to cope with higher get closer to their targets than non- mode autonomous seeker that could G load, with a high-resolution IIR-star- stealthy aircraft, but they are com- attain the reach of the medium-range ing focal plane array seeker in the nose. promised by only being able to carry AIM-120 and the maneuverability of Raytheon miniaturized several compo- a few weapons in their weapon bays. the short-range AIM-9X. Lockheed nents in the weapon’s guidance unit and The Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, for Martin has previously unveiled its fuse on the Block 2 upgrade, opening example, can carry a maximum of six CUDA concept, a hit-to-kill weapon room to add a data link, a technology AIM-120s in its weapon bay and two using technology from the company’s that is becoming more commonplace AIM-9s in the side bays, while the PAC-3 missile. It would be equipped even on smaller missiles. Lockheed Martin F-35 is currently with a radar seeker and forward at- Israel continues to place a premi- able to carry just four AIM-120s inter- titude control motors for high agility. um on highly agile dogfighting mis- nally, although efforts are underway “Smaller missiles could be the next siles, including the Python 5, revealed to enable the carriage of six. major step,” suggests Bronk. “Having to the world in 2003, which like the Aircraft such as the Eurofighter spent so much on stealthy aircraft, Sidewinder has steadily evolved. The Typhoon can carry up to eight air-to- there is an attractiveness in increas- weapon makes use of an IIR seeker air missiles in different configurations, ing their cost-effectiveness per kill.” that presents a “recognizable” target while Boeing has demonstrated the As adversary missiles become image, thereby allowing the guid- ability of advanced versions of its F-15 smarter, industry is also looking at the ance computer to select the most Eagle to carry 16-20 beyond-visual- need for defensive hard-kill missiles effective impact point, which is at a range missiles in an “arsenal fighter” that could be treated like an expend- point slightly to the rear of the target configuration. able flare or chaff. MBDA is studying cockpit canopy, according to Aviation U.S. manufacturers have proposed the potential for such systems for Week reporting. several smaller weapons that could Europe’s future combat air systems, But it is low-observable aircraft help aircraft such as the F-22 double while the U.S. Air Force issued a call that may drive the next steps in air- their internal missile loads. Raythe- for the development of a Miniature to-air missile development. By their on last year proposed the Peregrine, Self-Defense Munition last November very nature, stealthy aircraft can a 6-ft. (1.8-m) missile with a multi- (AW&ST Oct. 28-Nov. 10, 2019, p. 57). c
Force service only around 2015. The Beijing Is Taking Air-to-Air weapon has since been seen on com- Missile Lead From Russia bat aircraft participating in missions over Syria and on recent Sukhoi Su-35 intercepts in the Baltic Sea. The vari- > THE PL-15 IS ONE OF THE PROMPTS FOR AIM-260 DEVELOPMENT ant now in service in Russia is the R-77-1 (AA-12B), which is an upgrade > CHINESE PROGRESS MAY HAVE SPURRED RENEWED of the basic missile. A further devel- RUSSIAN INVESTMENT opment, likely to be designated as the AA-X-12C, Barrie suggests, may Tony Osborne London also be in testing and destined for use on the Su-57 Felon and the Su-35S he sight of four long-range air- “If you look at what the Chinese Flanker-M. to-air missiles in the weapons have invested into air-to-air missile Russia also needs to address a re- Tbay of China’s Chengdu J-20 development in terms of intellectual placement or modernization plan for low-observable fighter at the Zhuhai capital and finance, and contrast it the R-73/74 (AA-11A/B Archer) fam- Airshow two years ago rang alarm with the Russian equivalent, there is ily of short-range missiles, experts bells among officials throughout the no comparison,” says Douglas Barrie, say. Although the performance of the Pentagon. an aerospace fellow with the London- Archer surprised the West in the ear- Their fear was that China’s accel- based International Institute for Stra- ly 1990s because of the way its seeker erated air-to-air missile work had de- tegic Studies. was combined with a helmet-mount- veloped a weapon that could match, or Russia’s air-to-air missile industry ed sight, its lack of imaging infrared even exceed, the classified range for has been steadily getting back on its (IIR) seeker, which is now a prerequi- the most state-of-the-art variant of the feet over the past decade. The sector site for a modern within-visual-range U.S. Advanced Medium-Range Air-to- was hobbled by limited investment in weapon, means it is more vulnerable Air Missile (Amraam)—a weapon in the post-Cold War period and large- to countermeasures from those weap- service not only with the U.S. but also ly sustained by exports until the last ons with an IIR seeker. Vympel is said with several regional allies. few years. to be working on a new version of the It is not an unreasonable assump- Although it has been in develop - weapon with an IIR seeker. tion, analysts suggest. In terms of air- ment since the end of the Cold War, The Russian Air Force has also to-air missile technologies produced the Vympel R-77 (AA-12 Adder), also taken deliveries of the 200-km-range by the U.S.’ near-peer adversaries, known as Moscow’s equivalent to the (120-mi.) Vympel R-37M (AA-13A China is now the one to watch. U.S. Amraam, entered Russian Air Axehead). This is an updated version
30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE JUNE 2020 ened the airframe to cope with higher get closer to their targets than non- mode autonomous seeker that could G load, with a high-resolution IIR-star- stealthy aircraft, but they are com- attain the reach of the medium-range ing focal plane array seeker in the nose. promised by only being able to carry AIM-120 and the maneuverability of Raytheon miniaturized several compo- a few weapons in their weapon bays. the short-range AIM-9X. Lockheed nents in the weapon’s guidance unit and The Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, for Martin has previously unveiled its fuse on the Block 2 upgrade, opening example, can carry a maximum of six CUDA concept, a hit-to-kill weapon room to add a data link, a technology AIM-120s in its weapon bay and two using technology from the company’s that is becoming more commonplace AIM-9s in the side bays, while the PAC-3 missile. It would be equipped even on smaller missiles. Lockheed Martin F-35 is currently with a radar seeker and forward at- SPECIAL Israel continues to place a premi- able to carry just four AIM-120s inter- titude control motors for high agility. um on highly agile dogfighting mis- nally, although efforts are underway “Smaller missiles could be the next siles, including the Python 5, revealed to enable the carriage of six. major step,” suggests Bronk. “Having MISSION MODS to the world in 2003, which like the Aircraft such as the Eurofighter spent so much on stealthy aircraft, Sidewinder has steadily evolved. The Typhoon can carry up to eight air-to- there is an attractiveness in increas- weapon makes use of an IIR seeker air missiles in different configurations, ing their cost-effectiveness per kill.” W that presents a “recognizable” target while Boeing has demonstrated the As adversary missiles become image, thereby allowing the guid- ability of advanced versions of its F-15 smarter, industry is also looking at the ance computer to select the most Eagle to carry 16-20 beyond-visual- need for defensive hard-kill missiles D effective impact point, which is at a range missiles in an “arsenal fighter” that could be treated like an expend- point slightly to the rear of the target configuration. able flare or chaff. MBDA is studying cockpit canopy, according to Aviation U.S. manufacturers have proposed the potential for such systems for Week reporting. several smaller weapons that could Europe’s future combat air systems, But it is low-observable aircraft help aircraft such as the F-22 double while the U.S. Air Force issued a call that may drive the next steps in air- their internal missile loads. Raythe- for the development of a Miniature to-air missile development. By their on last year proposed the Peregrine, Self-Defense Munition last November very nature, stealthy aircraft can a 6-ft. (1.8-m) missile with a multi- (AW&ST Oct. 28-Nov. 10, 2019, p. 57). c
Force service only around 2015. The Beijing Is Taking Air-to-Air weapon has since been seen on com- Missile Lead From Russia bat aircraft participating in missions over Syria and on recent Sukhoi Su-35 intercepts in the Baltic Sea. The vari- > THE PL-15 IS ONE OF THE PROMPTS FOR AIM-260 DEVELOPMENT ant now in service in Russia is the R-77-1 (AA-12B), which is an upgrade > CHINESE PROGRESS MAY HAVE SPURRED RENEWED of the basic missile. A further devel- RUSSIAN INVESTMENT opment, likely to be designated as the AA-X-12C, Barrie suggests, may Tony Osborne London also be in testing and destined for use on the Su-57 Felon and the Su-35S he sight of four long-range air- “If you look at what the Chinese Flanker-M. to-air missiles in the weapons have invested into air-to-air missile Russia also needs to address a re- Tbay of China’s Chengdu J-20 development in terms of intellectual placement or modernization plan for low-observable fighter at the Zhuhai capital and finance, and contrast it the R-73/74 (AA-11A/B Archer) fam- Airshow two years ago rang alarm with the Russian equivalent, there is ily of short-range missiles, experts bells among officials throughout the no comparison,” says Douglas Barrie, say. Although the performance of the Pentagon. an aerospace fellow with the London- Archer surprised the West in the ear- Their fear was that China’s accel- based International Institute for Stra- ly 1990s because of the way its seeker erated air-to-air missile work had de- tegic Studies. was combined with a helmet-mount- veloped a weapon that could match, or Russia’s air-to-air missile industry ed sight, its lack of imaging infrared even exceed, the classified range for has been steadily getting back on its (IIR) seeker, which is now a prerequi- the most state-of-the-art variant of the feet over the past decade. The sector site for a modern within-visual-range U.S. Advanced Medium-Range Air-to- was hobbled by limited investment in weapon, means it is more vulnerable Air Missile (Amraam)—a weapon in the post-Cold War period and large- to countermeasures from those weap- service not only with the U.S. but also ly sustained by exports until the last ons with an IIR seeker. Vympel is said with several regional allies. few years. to be working on a new version of the D D ADDITI E MANU ACTURIN It is not an unreasonable assump- Although it has been in develop - weapon with an IIR seeker. tion, analysts suggest. In terms of air- ment since the end of the Cold War, The Russian Air Force has also E L I U T to-air missile technologies produced the Vympel R-77 (AA-12 Adder), also taken deliveries of the 200-km-range by the U.S.’ near-peer adversaries, known as Moscow’s equivalent to the (120-mi.) Vympel R-37M (AA-13A China is now the one to watch. U.S. Amraam, entered Russian Air Axehead). This is an updated version
30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 15-28, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Always reaching higher
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MRO 4 HIGHLIGHTS & NEWS BRIEFS MAINTENANCE CHECK
SAFETY & REGULATORY The March MRO 6 Boeing Exemption Request MRO 7 Pandemic Spotlights Forward for MRO Cleaning Protocols MRO 8 ARSA Update y son just graduated from high school dur- AIRLINE INSIGHT ing a pandemic, global What business improvements MRO 9 Ryanair M Karsten Muhlenfeld on how warming, worldwide recession, will you make during this the airline is adjusting MRO and riots in the U.S. following the stressful time? DATA death of George Floyd. This is far MRO 12 Data for Lessors from the environment in which I want to launch him into the world. How lessors keep track of the data generated by their His virtual commencement speak- Aviation Week’s Fleet Discovery equipment and improvements er, Chris Cox, former Facebook chief data shows that the number of parked/ they would like to see product officer, acknowledged this reserve aircraft (those flying 1-2 days OPERATIONS isn’t the ideal time to be graduating per week) has increased from 2,670 on MRO 16 Pandemic Complications but pointed to Isaac Newton, who fled May 14 to 3,153 on May 28, meaning Lessors and lessees try to Trinity College in Cambridge to escape that airlines are preparing to resume adjust to the new normal for the bubonic plague in 1665. While quar- more flights. Also, in May the 10 larg- the lease-return process antining at home, he created new in- est European airlines showed a fairly sights into math—helping to develop steady increase in flight hours but only AIRCRAFT what is now calculus. He also stud- a very slight increase in cycles, indi- MRO 17 Medical Mods cating more actual revenue or What goes into converting passenger and cargo aircraft Global Fleet Status cargo flights, as opposed to for medical missions? those needed to retain parked/ Stored reserve or idle status. ENGINES The number of aircraft that MRO 20 Engine MRO Plagued Parked have moved into long-term stor- by Low Demand age has also increased, suggest- The availability of spare ing that airlines are taking steps engines with life left will to position their assets in accor- save airlines money dance with their recovery plans. WORKFORCE Parts sales, especially for MRO 21 Workforce Trends those on the lower end of the Study findings reveal the price spectrum and PMA parts, Parked/Reserve In Service impact of the labor shortage started to pick up for several and the MRO outlook Source: Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery companies in May. Given that MRO revolves ENGINEERED ied optics and found that white light around maintaining the worldwide MRO 23 Additive Advantage is composed of a spectrum of colors. fleet, gaining an understanding of its The COVID-19 crisis Source: A iation ee Net or leet Disco er highlights the value of Newton also contemplated how the composition is a big step forward for additive manufacturing for universe worked and in so doing dis- the aftermarket. Now we just need aerospace and MRO covered gravity. people to resume flying. Most people’s pandemic productiv- That process won’t happen as re- ENGINE ANALYSIS ity is nothing like this, but it is good to gally as the “Pomp and Circumstance” MRO 26 GE90 Outlook focus on what you can do and consider march written by Sir Edward Elgar in An overview of airworthiness the possibilities. What adjustments 1901, but hopefully the march will be directives affecting the GE90 and business improvements can you steady. So less pomp, but the circum- MRO LINKS make during this stressful time? stances are starting to look positive for MRO 28 Remote-Collaboration Tools One positive is that airline traffic our industry’s recovery. June should be is starting to rebound. Chinese air- a good indicator. VIEWPOINT lines carried 1.04 million passengers Hold your chin up and move for - MRO 30 Paul Oliver, Airbus on June 5, the first time this has hap- ward! c pened since Jan. 28, according to the COVER: LUFTHANSA TECHNIK Civil Aviation Administration of China. —Lee Ann Shay
AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 MRO3 O News Briefs
Highlights Briefs Air Canada completed its final Boeing 767 CRJ Aftermarket Support Changes Hands passenger flight (24307; Montreal-Toronto) Bombardier’s exit from commercial aerospace was finalized June 1 with the on June 2; it operated 767s for 38 years. sale of its CRJ aircraft program to Japanese manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in a deal that includes its maintenance support services. Avia Solutions Group, which owns FL The sale of the regional jet program became somewhat drawn out, with both parties entering negotiations last year before agreeing on a $550 million Technics and Storm Aviation, has decided price last October. The deal paves the way for Bombardier to focus solely on to sell Baltic Ground Services Poland. business jet production, after offloading all of its commercial aircraft pro- grams—including the Q400 to an affiliate of Longview Aviation Capital in DHL took delivery of an EFW-converted 2019, followed by the sale of its C Series program to Airbus. Airbus A330-300F (777; ex-China Eastern), Operating as the newly established MHI RJ Aviation Group to be based out its fourth; it is expected to take two more in of Montreal, MHI will assume control of all maintenance, engineering, airwor- 2020 and up to 12 total. It is the first high- thiness certification support, refurbishment, asset management, marketing gross-weight-converted A330 and has a and sales activities for the CRJ. In addition, MHI will take on the regional aircraft’s type certificates and related intellectual property rights. 62-ton-plus payload. EFW received the The service centers it picks up as part of this deal will likely further boost supplemental type certificate in 2017. MHI’s aftermarket network for its own SpaceJet program, which has been hampered by a string of delays owing to technical issues. It is now expected GE Aviation won a $394 million contract to enter service in either late 2021 or early 2022. to provide J85 engine supplies for T-38s operated by the U.S. Air Force and Navy. India Tax Changes Seek To Bolster MRO The T-38 is expected to remain operational Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced, as part of a stimu- until 2040. lus plan, a package of initiatives aimed at industrial infrastructure, coal and mineral mining, defense production, civil aviation and aircraft maintenance. GA Telesis created the Flight Solutions In civil aviation, Sitharaman is aiming to reduce operating costs by $130 mil- Group (FSG) by combining its Component lion a year. The minister notes that only 60% of Indian airspace is now available Solutions Group (part-outs, parts sales, for civil aviation. She wants to ease restrictions so civilian flying becomes more efficient and management of airspace improves to save fuel, time and costs. distribution, flight hour services, inventory The ministry is also seeking to develop world-class airports through public- leasing, APU management and repair man- private partnerships. Six more airports have been identified for a second agement) with newly formed GAT Logistics round of bidding, and Sitharaman expects additional private investment in Solutions Group (logistics/warehousing) and 12 airports of about $1.7 billion. Tarmac Solutions Group (tooling/GSE). It Both airspace and airport improvements would benefit aircraft maintenance projects FSG will double its revenue by 2023. indirectly. But the minister also wants India to become a global hub for aircraft MRO. She says the tax regime for the MRO ecosystem has been rational- ized, and she expects Indian component repairs and airframe maintenance INDIGO is expected to return up to 120 to increase annual revenue to $260 million from $104 million in three years. A320ceo-family aircraft to lessors over next Sitharaman’s MRO plans also include major engine manufacturers setting two years, to be replaced with A320neos. up repair facilities in India in the coming year, and a “convergence between defense and the civil MROs” to create economies of scale. Domestic, more ITS plans in late June to tear down an ex- efficient MRO should also lower unit maintenance costs for India’s airlines. SAS 737-800 (28324) in Wales, It maintains inventories in Chandler, Arizona, and Dublin. AAR To Close Duluth Facility U.S.-based MRO provider AAR plans to close its facility at Duluth, Minne- ST Engineering secured S$838 million sota, by late July following a decrease in work related to the novel corona- ($603 million) in aerospace contracts in the virus pandemic. first quarter of 2020 versus S$1.3 billion in AAR says it was informed by a primary customer that due to the global the same period in 2019. New deals include industry downturn, the facility will receive no new maintenance projects at the site “for the foreseeable future.” MRO contracts from Chinese airlines for Once the facility closes, around 275 staff will lose their jobs, AAR says. Staff A320s and CFM56-7Bs and from a South- were informed of the decision to permanently close the shop in mid-May. east Asian airline for 737 and Q400 compo- The move to shut down the Duluth International Airport site, which AAR nent support. opened in 2012 after its previous occupation by Northwest Airlines, represents a step change after the company renewed its lease with the Duluth Economic Triumph Systems and Support extended Development Authority for another 20 years last year. an MRO contract for an international CH-47 2 At the 188,000-ft. facility, AAR has specialized in Airbus and Boeing nar- Chinook fleet for six more years. rowbody airframes across six support shops with capacity for up to four narrowbodies at a time. c Briefs Source: SpeedNews
MRO4 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O News Briefs
Highlights Briefs Air Canada completed its final Boeing 767 CRJ Aftermarket Support Changes Hands passenger flight (24307; Montreal-Toronto) Bombardier’s exit from commercial aerospace was finalized June 1 with the on June 2; it operated 767s for 38 years. sale of its CRJ aircraft program to Japanese manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in a deal that includes its maintenance support services. Avia Solutions Group, which owns FL The sale of the regional jet program became somewhat drawn out, with both parties entering negotiations last year before agreeing on a $550 million Technics and Storm Aviation, has decided price last October. The deal paves the way for Bombardier to focus solely on to sell Baltic Ground Services Poland. business jet production, after offloading all of its commercial aircraft pro- grams—including the Q400 to an affiliate of Longview Aviation Capital in DHL took delivery of an EFW-converted 2019, followed by the sale of its C Series program to Airbus. Airbus A330-300F (777; ex-China Eastern), Operating as the newly established MHI RJ Aviation Group to be based out its fourth; it is expected to take two more in of Montreal, MHI will assume control of all maintenance, engineering, airwor- 2020 and up to 12 total. It is the first high- thiness certification support, refurbishment, asset management, marketing gross-weight-converted A330 and has a and sales activities for the CRJ. In addition, MHI will take on the regional aircraft’s type certificates and related intellectual property rights. 62-ton-plus payload. EFW received the The service centers it picks up as part of this deal will likely further boost supplemental type certificate in 2017. MHI’s aftermarket network for its own SpaceJet program, which has been Navigate the Road to hampered by a string of delays owing to technical issues. It is now expected GE Aviation won a $394 million contract to enter service in either late 2021 or early 2022. to provide J85 engine supplies for T-38s operated by the U.S. Air Force and Navy. Recovery with Confi dence India Tax Changes Seek To Bolster MRO The T-38 is expected to remain operational Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced, as part of a stimu- until 2040. lus plan, a package of initiatives aimed at industrial infrastructure, coal and mineral mining, defense production, civil aviation and aircraft maintenance. GA Telesis created the Flight Solutions The only solution dedicated to commercial aftermarket In civil aviation, Sitharaman is aiming to reduce operating costs by $130 mil- Group (FSG) by combining its Component lion a year. The minister notes that only 60% of Indian airspace is now available Solutions Group (part-outs, parts sales, for civil aviation. She wants to ease restrictions so civilian flying becomes more professionals, MRO Prospector contains accurate and reliable efficient and management of airspace improves to save fuel, time and costs. distribution, flight hour services, inventory The ministry is also seeking to develop world-class airports through public- leasing, APU management and repair man- MRO data and intelligence so you can fi nd new opportunities. private partnerships. Six more airports have been identified for a second agement) with newly formed GAT Logistics round of bidding, and Sitharaman expects additional private investment in Solutions Group (logistics/warehousing) and 12 airports of about $1.7 billion. Tarmac Solutions Group (tooling/GSE). It Both airspace and airport improvements would benefit aircraft maintenance projects FSG will double its revenue by 2023. indirectly. But the minister also wants India to become a global hub for aircraft MRO. She says the tax regime for the MRO ecosystem has been rational- ized, and she expects Indian component repairs and airframe maintenance INDIGO is expected to return up to 120 to increase annual revenue to $260 million from $104 million in three years. A320ceo-family aircraft to lessors over next Sitharaman’s MRO plans also include major engine manufacturers setting two years, to be replaced with A320neos. up repair facilities in India in the coming year, and a “convergence between Details on thousands Discover maintenance Research operator’s fl eets defense and the civil MROs” to create economies of scale. Domestic, more ITS plans in late June to tear down an ex- of contracts covering opportunities, including by tail number, including efficient MRO should also lower unit maintenance costs for India’s airlines. SAS 737-800 (28324) in Wales, It maintains 37,000 aircraft and component repairs by age, hours, cycles and inventories in Chandler, Arizona, and Dublin. 80,000 engines. ATA Chapter. lease status. AAR To Close Duluth Facility U.S.-based MRO provider AAR plans to close its facility at Duluth, Minne- ST Engineering secured S$838 million sota, by late July following a decrease in work related to the novel corona- ($603 million) in aerospace contracts in the virus pandemic. first quarter of 2020 versus S$1.3 billion in AAR says it was informed by a primary customer that due to the global the same period in 2019. New deals include industry downturn, the facility will receive no new maintenance projects at the site “for the foreseeable future.” MRO contracts from Chinese airlines for Visit aviationweek.com/MROP to schedule your demo. Once the facility closes, around 275 staff will lose their jobs, AAR says. Staff A320s and CFM56-7Bs and from a South- were informed of the decision to permanently close the shop in mid-May. east Asian airline for 737 and Q400 compo- The move to shut down the Duluth International Airport site, which AAR nent support. opened in 2012 after its previous occupation by Northwest Airlines, represents a step change after the company renewed its lease with the Duluth Economic Triumph Systems and Support extended Call 866.857.0148 (within N. America) Development Authority for another 20 years last year. an MRO contract for an international CH-47 2 At the 188,000-ft. facility, AAR has specialized in Airbus and Boeing nar- Chinook fleet for six more years. +1.847.763.9147, or go to rowbody airframes across six support shops with capacity for up to four aviationweek.com/MROP narrowbodies at a time. c Briefs Source: SpeedNews
MRO4 INSIDEMRO JUNE 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO O Safety & Regulatory Boeing Exemption Request Eyes 737NG Tailpipe Fire Issue
Boeing has asked the FAA for an ex- 737-700 built in late 2011 and delivered but offered an alternative. “[P]rovid- emption that would allow it to modify a via a lessor to KLM, where it remains ed adequate justification is provided, 737NG engine exhaust part and permit in service. Boeing may wish to consider submit- its installation throughout the CFM56- The new exhaust eliminated regu- ting a request for exemption to 14 CFR 7 fleet. The upside: The change would latory-compliance issues, but it intro- 25.863 to allow drain holes to be add- cut down on aborted takeoffs (ATO) duced other challenges. Among them ed to the long-exhaust plug,” Boeing and other in-service incidents linked was that many 737NG operators now quotes the agency as saying in its reply. to apparent engine fires, and it would had different engine-exhaust configu- Earlier this year, Boeing submit- save operators money. The downside: rations, each requiring its own spare ted its exemption request, includ- The part, and by extension the entire parts. It also did nothing to solve the ing a provision that would allow the 737NG fleet, would not meet FAA long-exhaust configuration problems. new plug to be installed on the entire flammability-protection rules. The CFM56-5-powered Airbus CFM56-7 fleet. The complex story dates from 2009, A320ceo-family fleet had a similar “The current restrictions on the when Boeing learned that its CFM56-7 issue with its long-exhaust design. long-exhaust configuration increase “long” exhaust did not meet FAA Part Airbus proposed the drain-hole modi- airline operating costs arising from 25.863, which calls for minimizing risk fication, which the European Union additional inventory cost and configu- of fluid ignition in components where Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) ac- ration management,” Boeing says. “In leaks are possible. The issue involved oil cepted. EASA reasoned that the risk addition, removing this restriction will allow greater operator flexibility and increased efficiency.” Boeing’s requested exemption would The new plug would cut down on affect the entire 737NG fleet. long-exhaust tailpipe fires and not add risk to the short-exhaust models,
JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET Boeing says in its exemption request. Fewer tailpipe fires “would reduce operator unscheduled maintenance, service disruption, and airplane evacu- ations,” Boeing adds. In comments on Boeing’s petition, CFM suggests that tailpipe fires are a far greater safety risk than oil drip- ping on exhaust nozzles. “In 2019, tailpipe fires were the lead- ing cause of powerplant-caused abort- ed takeoffs,” the engine-maker says, adding that there have been “at least” 19 such incidents in the last five years. These fires required a full engine over- haul, at a cost of $4 million, for engines doused in fire-suppression agent. “The proposed drainage has been demonstrated on a comparative buildup in the exhaust plug over time. of fires resulting from oil dripping out CFM56-powered airplane, and the In 2011, CFM introduced the of the newly modified plug was less se- benign nature of leakage into the ex- CFM56-7BE, which required engine- rious than the ATO issues caused by haust nozzle has been demonstrated installation changes to incorporate the original, drainless design. on the short-plug version of the the new powerplant variant. Among In 2018, Boeing went to the FAA 737NG,” CFM adds. the changes was a shorter exhaust and proposed a similar change for Southwest Airlines, which has more configuration, which includes drain the 737NG engines. Among its argu- 737NGs in its fleet than any other op- holes and added heat shielding, and ments was that the long-configuration erator, says the original long-exhaust meets the regulations. The short- CFM56-7 fleet was experiencing tail- configuration has caused “several” exhaust became standard on 737NG pipe fires eight times more often than tailpipe fires. Line No. 3762, which Aviation Week’s the CFM56-5 fleet. The FAA rejected “These events did not generate a Fleet Discovery database shows is a the new plug design as noncompliant flight deck fire warning indication.
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They were typically observed by air- Delta Air Lines, which like sible, and Boeing has developed a Boeing Exemption Request craft located behind the departing Southwest operates 737NGs with service bulletin detailing the process. aircraft or by passengers, flight at- both exhaust configurations, says But the change is considered a major Eyes 737NG Tailpipe Fire Issue tendants and ground personnel,” the the drainage holes “will significantly modification—a costly endeavor with airline tells the FAA. “These events reduce” tailpipe fires on the older specific record-keeping and other Boeing has asked the FAA for an ex- 737-700 built in late 2011 and delivered but offered an alternative. “[P]rovid- could have been easily avoided by plac- airframes, while a single plug for the regulatory requirements. Adding a emption that would allow it to modify a via a lessor to KLM, where it remains ed adequate justification is provided, ing several simple holes in the exhaust entire CFM56-7 fleet “will help to new drain plug to the short-exhaust 737NG engine exhaust part and permit in service. Boeing may wish to consider submit- nozzle (to account for engine position simplify configuration as well as in- configuration is as simple as it sounds. its installation throughout the CFM56- The new exhaust eliminated regu- ting a request for exemption to 14 CFR and wing dihedral) instead of numer- ventory cost.” The FAA is reviewing Boeing’s re- 7 fleet. The upside: The change would latory-compliance issues, but it intro- 25.863 to allow drain holes to be add- ous operational disruptions and unnec- Installing the short-exhaust con- quest. c cut down on aborted takeoffs (ATO) duced other challenges. Among them ed to the long-exhaust plug,” Boeing essary customer inconvenience.” figuration on older 737NGs is pos- —Sean Broderick and other in-service incidents linked was that many 737NG operators now quotes the agency as saying in its reply. to apparent engine fires, and it would had different engine-exhaust configu- Earlier this year, Boeing submit- save operators money. The downside: rations, each requiring its own spare ted its exemption request, includ- The part, and by extension the entire parts. It also did nothing to solve the ing a provision that would allow the International Civil Aviation Organi- 737NG fleet, would not meet FAA long-exhaust configuration problems. new plug to be installed on the entire Pandemic Spotlights zation guidance on protecting cargo flammability-protection rules. The CFM56-5-powered Airbus CFM56-7 fleet. pilots issued May 11, refer to manufac- The complex story dates from 2009, A320ceo-family fleet had a similar “The current restrictions on the turers’ recommendations. when Boeing learned that its CFM56-7 issue with its long-exhaust design. long-exhaust configuration increase Cleaning Protocols While the guidance is not new, “long” exhaust did not meet FAA Part Airbus proposed the drain-hole modi- airline operating costs arising from OEMs say they will work to make it 25.863, which calls for minimizing risk fication, which the European Union additional inventory cost and configu- A renewed focus on cleaning aircraft May cited reports of noncompliance at more readily available. An early item of fluid ignition in components where Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) ac- ration management,” Boeing says. “In interiors has operators paying close 16 U.S. carriers and one in Canada. Most on a new Boeing initiative’s to-do list leaks are possible. The issue involved oil cepted. EASA reasoned that the risk addition, removing this restriction will attention to what works as a disinfec- of the issues concern the frequency and is reaffirming which cleaners and allow greater operator flexibility and tant and, critically, what is permitted thoroughness of aircraft-interior disin- materials are approved for different increased efficiency.” for use on different surfaces. Reports fecting and the materials being used. aircraft surfaces, says Mike Delaney, Boeing’s requested exemption would The new plug would cut down on from the front lines suggest signifi- A common example is pilots being pro- who is heading up the just-launched affect the entire 737NG fleet. long-exhaust tailpipe fires and not cant confusion and, in several cases, vided with hand wipes that are not on Confident Travel Initiative. Boeing add risk to the short-exhaust models, airworthiness issues. the Environmental Protection Agency’s says it will push to harmonize rec-
JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET Boeing says in its exemption request. A pilot for an unnamed airline filed E-list, which tracks products known to ommended product lists as much as Fewer tailpipe fires “would reduce a NASA Aviation Safety Reporting work against the novel coronavirus. possible among manufacturers. The operator unscheduled maintenance, System report in mid-May detailing JAIME REINA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES service disruption, and airplane evacu- an onboard smoke event. “[An] air ations,” Boeing adds. carrier captain reported smelling In comments on Boeing’s petition, a burning smell during cruise,” the CFM suggests that tailpipe fires are report’s summary says. “Post-flight a far greater safety risk than oil drip- maintenance briefing advised the pi- ping on exhaust nozzles. lots that alcohol from wipes may be “In 2019, tailpipe fires were the lead- shorting out wires.” The unnamed air- ing cause of powerplant-caused abort- line reported that the issue had turned ed takeoffs,” the engine-maker says, up on “several” aircraft. adding that there have been “at least” Aircraft manufacturers have pub- 19 such incidents in the last five years. lished procedures on how to clean These fires required a full engine over- aircraft and what products to use for haul, at a cost of $4 million, for engines years. Events such as SARS and the doused in fire-suppression agent. current COVID-19 pandemic have “The proposed drainage has been prompted them to issue reminders demonstrated on a comparative and, as lessons are learned, provide buildup in the exhaust plug over time. of fires resulting from oil dripping out CFM56-powered airplane, and the updates. For example, Boeing has is- In 2011, CFM introduced the of the newly modified plug was less se- benign nature of leakage into the ex- sued several multi-operator messages CFM56-7BE, which required engine- rious than the ATO issues caused by haust nozzle has been demonstrated since the beginning of the year linked installation changes to incorporate the original, drainless design. on the short-plug version of the to aircraft cleaning. The OEM’s lists the new powerplant variant. Among In 2018, Boeing went to the FAA 737NG,” CFM adds. include products that are approved OEMs are issuing guidance on flight deck cleaning best practices. the changes was a shorter exhaust and proposed a similar change for Southwest Airlines, which has more for use and are verified by govern- configuration, which includes drain the 737NG engines. Among its argu- 737NGs in its fleet than any other op- ment health agencies as being effec- The FAA and other regulators are goal, says Delaney, is to give operators holes and added heat shielding, and ments was that the long-configuration erator, says the original long-exhaust tive against the prevailing threat, cur- hesitant to mandate aircraft-cleaning choice while ensuring they do not have meets the regulations. The short- CFM56-7 fleet was experiencing tail- configuration has caused “several” rently the virus that causes COVID-19. protocols, referring instead to health to stock multiple brands of the same exhaust became standard on 737NG pipe fires eight times more often than tailpipe fires. But some operators are still strug- agency guidance, which focuses large- general products to do the same job Line No. 3762, which Aviation Week’s the CFM56-5 fleet. The FAA rejected “These events did not generate a gling to follow procedures. An Air Line ly on aircraft cabins. Instructions on on different manufacturers’ aircraft.c Fleet Discovery database shows is a the new plug design as noncompliant flight deck fire warning indication. Pilots Association report issued in mid- cleaning flight decks, such as in the —Sean Broderick
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ARSA UPDATE Virtual Must Still Relate to Reality
A MODERN WORKDAY INCLUDES COUNTLESS virtual But who was this supposed to help, advise or encourage? communications—emails, video conferences and meet- In other words, who or what was the target audience? ings, text messaging, social media exchanges, you name it. There were no media advisories or broad public an- In today’s environment, the usually busy schedule of nouncements drawing attention to the session. Only those industry events has also become an adventure in remote who already carefully watch FAA communications—or connectivity. Online streaming services are recovering ARSA.org—were even aware of the event. There was no sponsorship and registration revenue lost by the inability clear agenda or information on content or context. The to hold in-person gatherings. Trade associations are be- approach and discussion were too technical and obscure coming adept at holding crisis-focused webinars and live- to hearten a nervous flyer. Nor were there any specifics streaming sessions to enable and even stimulate member regarding compliance obligations or operational issues connection. The Aviation Week Network—no slacker when that could help a curious certificate holder. it comes to reinvention—is producing a slate of webinars None of the information provided generated broader that offers a regular venue for the industry to share and coverage or discussion. An internet search for “FAA Avia- revisit predictions, advice, viewpoints and best practices. tion Safety Town Hall” finds nothing from the usually at- The underlying goal of any communication—in-person, tentive aviation industry trade press. During the event, audio and visual recordings, streaming or otherwise deliv- Manzelli befuddlingly reminded “media viewers” that all ered—is to provide value to a target audience. Adhering to discussions were “on background,” a standard phrase this focus will ensure that the end-user, be it colleagues in meant to prevent reporters from ascribing statements to the same company or an industry-wide audience, is prop- particular speakers. We appreciate the agency’s use of erly served now and in the future. remote technology, but its effort was all virtual and not An example of the need for improvement was on dis- much reality. Remote connectivity must ultimately ensure play May 14. After a week-long delay caused by technical that user involvement at least approximates an in-person, difficulties, the FAA hosted a virtual “Aviation Safety Town on-premises experience. This standard—replicating direct Hall.” Originally, ARSA’s notice about the event included personal experience—will sound familiar to anyone who the promise of an exchange with invited panelists. For rea- has followed the industry’s broader effort to institute rea- sons unknown, when the association’s executive director sonable remote connectivity policy. With care and atten- was informed (48 hr. in advance) that the event would be tion, it can be achieved in a maintenance facility or on a live-streamed on the agency’s YouTube channel, there flight line. were no engagement instructions of any kind. On the same day as the FAA event, ARSA Executive The session included two panels moderated by Ad- Director Sarah MacLeod and I participated in a webinar ministrator Steve Dickson and Flight Standards Executive hosted by our colleagues at Helicopter Association Inter- Director Rick Domingo. At its most condensed, the video national. Similar to Aviation Week’s and other industry of- screen packed in 14 faces: Dickson and Domingo, sup- ferings, these sessions are readily available to the public, ported by FAA Assistant Administrator for Communica- their purpose and participants are known and registration tions Brianna Manzelli, were joined by senior executives is straightforward. In preparation, the production team from air carriers and trade unions including Delta Air Lines, provided regular updates to help us keep our presenta- United Airlines and American Airlines as well as the Na- tions relevant. We delivered our session materials early, ran tional Air Traffic Controllers Association and the Air Line through the technology and prepared to take questions Pilots Association. and interact with participants. The exchanges were pleasant and generally positive, The “new” normal demands that the aviation industry packed with praise for collaboration and responsiveness and the FAA become capable of using virtual reality, par- from both industry and the government, affirmations (and ticularly since it is neither new nor virtual. It is a method of reaffirmations) of the value of safety management systems communicating that can be the same and in some cases and promises to “stick with what we know” in both crisis even better (one cannot attend an industry meeting in management and the eventual return to “normal opera- flip-flops) than an in-person, on-premises experience. c tion.” It was a demonstration of intra-industry back-patting about quick action and coordination and the work being Brett Levanto is vice president of operations with Obadal, done to protect crewmember health and passenger safety. Filler, MacLeod & Klein.
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ARSA UPDATE Ryanair Virtual Must Still Relate to Reality RYANAIR
A MODERN WORKDAY INCLUDES COUNTLESS virtual But who was this supposed to help, advise or encourage? In an interview conducted in two parts, one shortly before the novel communications—emails, video conferences and meet- In other words, who or what was the target audience? coronavirus pandemic and one in the middle of it, Ryanair Director ings, text messaging, social media exchanges, you name it. There were no media advisories or broad public an- of Maintenance and Engineering Karsten Muhlenfeld talks to Inside Ryanair Fact File In today’s environment, the usually busy schedule of nouncements drawing attention to the session. Only those MRO’s James Pozzi about the low-cost carrier’s capacity plans and HISTORY: industry events has also become an adventure in remote who already carefully watch FAA communications—or Ryanair was founded in how it has adjusted maintenance operations given the COVID-19 crisis. 1984 and commenced operations connectivity. Online streaming services are recovering ARSA.org—were even aware of the event. There was no the following year. Under the sponsorship and registration revenue lost by the inability clear agenda or information on content or context. The In late 2019, Ryanair sent some lines good solution, as it guarantees we will leadership of Michael O’Leary, who to hold in-person gatherings. Trade associations are be- approach and discussion were too technical and obscure of maintenance outside Europe to receive an in-depth level of expertise joined Ryanair in 1987 before later coming adept at holding crisis-focused webinars and live- to hearten a nervous flyer. Nor were there any specifics Joramco in the Middle East. Was the and product knowledge. becoming CEO, the airline has streaming sessions to enable and even stimulate member regarding compliance obligations or operational issues decision to look beyond Europe for grown to be one of Europe’s largest connection. The Aviation Week Network—no slacker when that could help a curious certificate holder. some maintenance requirements a What is the ratio of insourced to and operates a route network across it comes to reinvention—is producing a slate of webinars None of the information provided generated broader capacity-driven one? outsourced maintenance? 40 countries in Europe, North Africa that offers a regular venue for the industry to share and coverage or discussion. An internet search for “FAA Avia- and the Middle East. revisit predictions, advice, viewpoints and best practices. tion Safety Town Hall” finds nothing from the usually at- It wasn’t solely a capacity issue. We Currently it stands at around 80% of FLEET: Before the grounding of its The underlying goal of any communication—in-person, tentive aviation industry trade press. During the event, want to operate our capacity in our maintenance being done in-house, with fleet, Ryanair operated 273 Boeing audio and visual recordings, streaming or otherwise deliv- Manzelli befuddlingly reminded “media viewers” that all existing hangars, but if that is fully the remainder of work outsourced to 737-800 aircraft. The wider group utilized, then we will naturally have to third parties. ered—is to provide value to a target audience. Adhering to discussions were “on background,” a standard phrase has nearly 200 more aircraft, with outsource work. In order to do that, we this focus will ensure that the end-user, be it colleagues in meant to prevent reporters from ascribing statements to 120 737-800s operated by Malta Air work with several companies in Europe November 2019 saw some issues re- the same company or an industry-wide audience, is prop- particular speakers. We appreciate the agency’s use of and 26 Airbus A320-200s operated or close to the continent. Joramco had lated to pickle fork cracks on Boeing by Austrian low-cost carrier Lauda. erly served now and in the future. remote technology, but its effort was all virtual and not shown itself to be very efficient and to 737-800 aircraft, which led to three An example of the need for improvement was on dis- much reality. Remote connectivity must ultimately ensure Ryanair is also among the most deliver a very good MRO service; so Ryanair-operated aircraft being high-profile customers for Boeing’s play May 14. After a week-long delay caused by technical that user involvement at least approximates an in-person, we decided to try it as a provider. It’s grounded. Did this issue have a signif- troubled 737 MAX program, with difficulties, the FAA hosted a virtual “Aviation Safety Town on-premises experience. This standard—replicating direct the first year we have worked with icant effect on your fleet operation? firm orders for 135 of the next- Hall.” Originally, ARSA’s notice about the event included personal experience—will sound familiar to anyone who Joramco. We sent two full scheduled generation narrowbody in place and the promise of an exchange with invited panelists. For rea- has followed the industry’s broader effort to institute rea- lines of heavy maintenance, and we Our mechanics identified a small num- options on a further 75. The airline sons unknown, when the association’s executive director sonable remote connectivity policy. With care and atten- are happy with what it has delivered. ber of findings on some aircraft that said earlier this year that the service was informed (48 hr. in advance) that the event would be tion, it can be achieved in a maintenance facility or on a Joramco isn’t the only external sup- needed to be repaired and that was entry of the MAX could be delayed plier we are using, however—we have for Boeing to repair. From that point live-streamed on the agency’s YouTube channel, there flight line. by up to two years, but it remains five other MRO providers undertaking of view, it had no impact on us because were no engagement instructions of any kind. On the same day as the FAA event, ARSA Executive committed to the program. checks for us. We are in a season with it was only a small number of aircraft, The session included two panels moderated by Ad- Director Sarah MacLeod and I participated in a webinar significant scheduled maintenance and occurring during the winter sea- MAINTENANCE CAPABILITIES/LOCATIONS: ministrator Steve Dickson and Flight Standards Executive hosted by our colleagues at Helicopter Association Inter- [March 2020], which is fixed, and son meant we had some spare aircraft The airline has more than 70 line Director Rick Domingo. At its most condensed, the video national. Similar to Aviation Week’s and other industry of- because of the growth of the fleet at available. Nearly all of our heavy fleet maintenance sites, with its four larg- screen packed in 14 faces: Dickson and Domingo, sup- ferings, these sessions are readily available to the public, certain times, we have very specific re- maintenance is done in the winter, so est locations at London Stansted ported by FAA Assistant Administrator for Communica- their purpose and participants are known and registration quirements. That means working with we could afford to send these aircraft to in the UK, Dublin, Milan Bergamo tions Brianna Manzelli, were joined by senior executives is straightforward. In preparation, the production team external companies. Boeing to be repaired and see no impact. in Italy and Madrid. Its heavy main- from air carriers and trade unions including Delta Air Lines, provided regular updates to help us keep our presenta- tenance operation includes four United Airlines and American Airlines as well as the Na- tions relevant. We delivered our session materials early, ran Ryanair has built up some impressive Given growing internal base sites across Europe: Prestwick in Scotland, where it has six lines; tional Air Traffic Controllers Association and the Air Line through the technology and prepared to take questions in-house capabilities on airframes, maintenance requirements, how is Kaunas in Lithuania with two lines; Pilots Association. and interact with participants. but is it looking to add more in areas Ryanair looking to address concerns such as parts repairs? about MRO capacity in its network? Wroclaw in Poland with two lines; The exchanges were pleasant and generally positive, The “new” normal demands that the aviation industry and Seville, Spain, which will expand packed with praise for collaboration and responsiveness and the FAA become capable of using virtual reality, par- We do the major overhaul of the air- Upon reviewing our heavy main- from its current two lines to four from both industry and the government, affirmations (and ticularly since it is neither new nor virtual. It is a method of craft and for some parts—for exam- tenance capacity across sites in lines by 2021. reaffirmations) of the value of safety management systems communicating that can be the same and in some cases ple, an aircraft water boiler—we will Prestwick (UK) with five maintenance MAINTENANCE STAFF: Pre-COVID-19, and promises to “stick with what we know” in both crisis even better (one cannot attend an industry meeting in repair them in-house at one of our bays, Kaunas (Lithuania), Wroclaw c Ryanair had more than 2,000 engineers management and the eventual return to “normal opera- flip-flops) than an in-person, on-premises experience. workshops. But for complicated parts (Poland) and Seville (each with two in total, comprising 1,100 in heavy tion.” It was a demonstration of intra-industry back-patting related to an aircraft’s electronics, we bays), we analyzed where it made maintenance, 800 in line mainte- about quick action and coordination and the work being Brett Levanto is vice president of operations with Obadal, outsource to the OEM, and that won’t sense to grow further and decided that nance and 200 staff in logistics, ma- done to protect crewmember health and passenger safety. Filler, MacLeod & Klein. change. We feel that going to the OEM we will expand the hangar in Seville by terials and continued airworthiness. for these more specialized repairs is a an additional two bays in 2021. We’re
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Airbus, and we have followed their in- RYANAIR structions. The aircraft are flown regu- larly, which will allow us to resume op- erations quite fast once we are able to.
Where is Ryanair parking its aircraft?
We have parked the aircraft at our main bases (located throughout Eu- Ryanair’s maintenance plans have rope) to ensure that we can perform been adjusted due to the novel maintenance efficiently. coronavirus pandemic. What reductions or changes has Ryanair had to make to its also growing capacity in Prestwick tenance operations in the wake of the maintenance teams due to COVID-19? from five bays to six bays this year. COVID-19 outbreak. We’ve already grown there signifi- The COVID-19 pandemic has created cantly on the base maintenance side. Ryanair grounded its entire aircraft an unprecedented crisis for the avia- We’ve also ramped up our line main- fleet after the novel coronavirus tion industry. We are now facing a new tenance network and in the past year pandemic led to global travel environment of lower fares and dis- or so have added new lines at Milan restrictions. How has this affected torted competition due to below-cost Bergamo Airport. your maintenance operations? selling by inefficient airlines propped up by unlawful state aid. Unfortunate- Inside MRO spoke again to Karsten We have chosen to put aircraft in short- ly, all areas of the business have seen Muhlenfeld in May 2020 for an update term storage or in active parking. The staff reductions in order to adjust to on how the airline has adapted its main- procedures are provided by Boeing and this new environment. c
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Airbus, and we have followed their in- RYANAIR VIRTUAL structions. The aircraft are flown regu- larly, which will allow us to resume op- September 22-24, 2020 erations quite fast once we are able to.
Where is Ryanair parking its aircraft? Co-located with We have parked the aircraft at our main bases (located throughout Eu- Ryanair’s maintenance plans have rope) to ensure that we can perform been adjusted due to the novel maintenance efficiently. coronavirus pandemic. What reductions or changes has Ryanair had to make to its also growing capacity in Prestwick tenance operations in the wake of the maintenance teams due to COVID-19? from five bays to six bays this year. COVID-19 outbreak. We’ve already grown there signifi- The COVID-19 pandemic has created cantly on the base maintenance side. Ryanair grounded its entire aircraft an unprecedented crisis for the avia- We’ve also ramped up our line main- fleet after the novel coronavirus tion industry. We are now facing a new tenance network and in the past year pandemic led to global travel environment of lower fares and dis- or so have added new lines at Milan restrictions. How has this affected torted competition due to below-cost Bergamo Airport. your maintenance operations? selling by inefficient airlines propped up by unlawful state aid. Unfortunate- Inside MRO spoke again to Karsten We have chosen to put aircraft in short- ly, all areas of the business have seen Muhlenfeld in May 2020 for an update term storage or in active parking. The staff reductions in order to adjust to on how the airline has adapted its main- procedures are provided by Boeing and this new environment. c
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How lessors keep track of the data generated by their equipment and improvements they would like to see