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Cambrian Mountains Adaptive Landcapes Project

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Cambrian Mountains Adaptive Landcapes Project CAMBRIAN MOUNTAINS ADAPTIVE LANDCAPES PROJECT Main Case Study Report Prepared for Defra by Land Use Consultants, Bangor University and Victoria University of Wellington, NZ working with the Countryside Council for Wales and the Cambrian Mountains Initiative June 2011 Defra contact CR0449 www.landuse.co.uk LUC SERVICES Environmental Planning Landscape Design Landscape Management Masterplanning Landscape Planning Ecology Environmental Assessment Rural Futures Digital Design Urban Regeneration Urban Design 43 Chalton Street 37 Otago Street London NW1 1JD Glasgow G12 8JJ Tel: 020 7383 5784 Tel: 0141 334 9595 Fax: 020 7383 4798 Fax: 0141 334 7789 [email protected] [email protected] 14 Great George Street 28 Stafford Street Bristol BS1 5RH Edinburgh EH3 7BD Tel: 0117 929 1997 Tel: 0131 202 1616 Fax: 0117 929 1998 [email protected] [email protected] Document Control Version Status: Version Details: Prepared Checked Approved by: by: by: Ver: Date: Principal 3.0 27 June Final report Robert Louise Robert Deane 2011 Deane Tricklebank CONTENTS Acknowledgements................................................................................................................................................ii Executive summary ......................................................................................... iii 1. Introduction .................................................................................................1 Purpose of this study.................................................................................................................................... 1 The Project Area........................................................................................................................................... 2 Climate change and adaptation principles................................................................................................ 3 Aims and Objectives..................................................................................................................................... 7 2. Methodology ................................................................................................8 3. The Project Area.......................................................................................11 Reasons for the selection of the project area ......................................................................................11 Characteristics of the area........................................................................................................................12 4. Climate change and other pressures on biodiversity and land use in the project area .........................................................................................23 The Climate ..................................................................................................................................................23 Sea level .........................................................................................................................................................26 Atmospheric Pollution................................................................................................................................27 Public recreation..........................................................................................................................................27 Agricultural land use ...................................................................................................................................29 Wider Economic and social drivers of change......................................................................................30 The policy and regulatory environment.................................................................................................31 The overall trajectory for the area in the absence of adaptation measures..................................32 5. Modelling potential adaptation strategies..............................................36 Polyscape.......................................................................................................................................................36 Communicating outputs using ‘flyover’ simulations.............................................................................38 Sources of data.............................................................................................................................................38 6. Land Use Scenarios to deliver biodiversity and other services............42 Selection of scenarios.................................................................................................................................42 The Biodiversity Adaptation Scenario ....................................................................................................43 The Agricultural productivity scenario...................................................................................................57 The reducing surface run-off scenario....................................................................................................62 The carbon storage scenario ....................................................................................................................69 Combinations of the biodiveristy scenario with other services .......................................................75 The land cover characteristics of different opportunity zones.........................................................81 7. Planning for adaptation in the project area ...........................................84 Taking account of the impacts of climate change.................................................................................84 Applying the CBCC principles to the priorities, opportunities and impacts.................................87 8. Applying the lessons through policy......................................................104 Partnership working to achieve integrated objectives......................................................................104 Communicating objectives and engaging with land managers .........................................................106 Delivering adaptive landscapes in practice...........................................................................................108 Key messages from this study for policy..............................................................................................115 Bibliography...................................................................................................117 i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1. This study has been conducted by a team from Land Use Consultants (Robert Deane), the University of Bangor (Tim Pagella) and Victoria University in Wellington (Dr Beth Jackson), working with the Countryside Council for Wales (CCW) and the Cambrian Mountains Initiative (Huwel Manley and Steven Bradley). The project was managed for Defra by Dr Helen Pontier. 2. The project received valuable advice and contributions of evidence from a range of staff at CCW (including Hillary Miller, Rob McCall, Barbara Jones, Jim Latham, Pete Jones and Sue Byrne), the Welsh Assembly Government (Dai Harris) and the Environment Agency Wales (including Simon Neale). A number of farmers participating in the Cambrian Mountains Initiative also provided comments on the methodology and outputs of the study. 3. The project has been steered by a Project Group consisting of Richard Findon, Giles Golshetti, Helen Pontier, Leon Smith and Juliet Viney from Defra, Clive Walmsley and Jim Latham from the Countryside Council for Wales, Peter Brotherton and Michael Morecroft from Natural England and Ken O'Callaghan from the Living With Environmental Change Directorate. ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This project provides a case study that examines how to enhance adaptation of biodiversity to climate change in the context of the delivery of other key ecosystem services. It identifies practical measures to achieve this at a landscape scale in a transitional landscape from lowland to upland. The work has been conducted by a team from Land Use Consultants, the University of Bangor and Victoria University in Wellington, working with the Countryside Council for Wales (CCW). It has been undertaken under the wing of the Cambrian Mountains Initiative which is a partnership programme funded by the Welsh Assembly Government, constituent local authorities and CCW, and supported by the Prince’s Charities in Wales and a range of other public bodies. The project was commissioned by Defra to: a) Demonstrate the application of theoretical models and climate change adaptation principles for biodiversity to enable the adaptation of biodiversity to climate change in the Project Area; and b) Assess the practicality and value of proposed landscape scale adaptation measures in the Project Area on the basis of practical experience that has included discussions with the farming community on suitability of alternative approaches. The Project Area The Project Area is located on the north-western edge of the Cambrian Mountains in Wales and covers 38,000 ha. The area can be divided into four different land use zones: The upland plateau (dominated by relatively large expanses of unenclosed upland heathland or conifer plantations); A transitional zone (which includes the ffridd); Lowland farmland (predominantly permanent grassland bounded by hedgerows); and The coastal zone (including the Cors Fochno complex of wetland sites south of the Dyfi Estuary). Climate change adaptation principles and ecosystem services The project has sought
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