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Page 1 – Dorset’s North-South highway infrastructure (A350 / C13 and A37 / A354) Agenda Item: Cabinet 10 Date of Meeting 2 December 2015 Lead Member Peter Finney Officer Local Member Deborah Croney Lead Director Mike Harries Dorset’s North-South highway infrastructure (A350 / C13 and Subject of Report A37 / A354) Executive Summary At the Cabinet meeting on 18 March 2015 members agreed to commission the council’s strategic partners Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) to undertake economic assessment of potential major improvements to the A350 / C13 and A37 / A354 road corridors that could be promoted through the Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership (DLEP). This included assessments of the C13 Melbury Abbas Bypass, the A350 Sturminster Marshall, Spetisbury and Charlton Marshall Bypass and the A354 Portland Road Relief Road (Western Relief Road). This report summarises their findings. These road proposals have been longstanding schemes which despite previous studies and bids to government have not been progressed due to significant environmental and funding constraints which are still present. These schemes have not been seen as Government priorities for funding and therefore had no certainty of delivery. Consequently none of these road schemes are currently included within the three relevant District Local Plans or the Dorset Local Transport Plan (LTP3). Government funding for transport schemes is now closely aligned to the delivery of economic growth and development whilst still being required to provide good value for money. Economic assessments have identified very high costs for each of the 3 new road schemes and have shown that as a return on investment they are generally poor value for money when a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) is applied. Environmental and social costs have not presently been assessed. Page 2 – Dorset’s North-South highway infrastructure (A350 / C13 and A37 / A354) Growth Deal 1 funding has been given to transport schemes in Dorset where it has been possible to demonstrate a strong economic case when linked to job and housing growth. The DLEP has recently asked for expressions of interest to be submitted in preparation for a potential round 3 of Growth Deal funding bids to Government. The LEP will prioritise funding for shovel-ready schemes for delivery from 2017. These North-South road schemes were not submitted because the evidence available at the time showed that other schemes had greater economic impact and deliverability. The County Council has submitted expressions of interest for funding for a number of transport schemes in and around Gillingham, Dorchester and Bournemouth airport that meet these LEP requirements. Alternative solutions which may be at a lower cost or of a wider regional influence to improve North-South links through Dorset could now be investigated and worked up in time for future rounds of government bids. Dorset County Council have recently been approached by Bath and North East Somerset, and Wiltshire Councils to work collaboratively, together with our respective LEPs , to compile an evidence based prospectus to assist in any future funding bid for a strategic infrastructure improvement between the M4 and the ports of Poole and Portland. A letter has been sent to the Under Secretary of State Andrew Jones MP seeking to begin this process and the wider debate with regional partners’ proceeds. Despite concerted efforts, we continue to be unable to secure definitive land owner consent to carry out slope stabilisation on the C13 Dinah’s Hollow. As a result, it is now likely that any construction works will be delayed until 2017. With the commencement of works at Dinah’s Hollow likely to be delayed into 2017, it is necessary to reconsider in the interim period, whether the proposed slope stabilisation works on the C13 at Dinah’s Hollow should proceed whilst these regional initiatives are being investigated. Cabinet are asked to consider whether we should suspend the Dinah’s Hollow project pending the completion of the collaborative work detailed above being completed. Impact Assessment: Equalities Impact Assessment: The report focusses on the information from the economic assessment of North-South transport infrastructure and as such does not lead to any immediate outcomes requiring assessment. However, the issues of rurality and poor connectivity have a significant impact, economically for businesses and communities as well as socially. The economic assessment will be one part of the evidence required to demonstrate the need for improvements. Any specific scheme developed in due course will be subject to its own Equality Impact Page 3 – Dorset’s North-South highway infrastructure (A350 / C13 and A37 / A354) Assessment. Use of Evidence: Evidence has been drawn from the LTP3, DLEP, Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) and Government funding announcements. In preparing the study report, our partner consultants PB have engaged with senior transport officers from Somerset, Bournemouth and Poole, Highways England as well as North Dorset District Council planning and DCC economic development officers. Where specific options and proposals are developed, formal consultation will take place with a wide range of stakeholders. Budget: All schemes would require external funding in addition to any corporate funding members choose to make available. Developing a business case to secure that external funding would cost £2-3M (2006 prices) with limited realistic chances of success. The scheme cost for the Melbury Abbas Bypass and improvements is £54.3M and for Spetisbury, Sturminster Marshall and Charlton Marshall Bypasses up to £54M (both at 2015 prices). The A354 Portland Road Relief Road scheme costs up to £941.9M (2015 prices) depending on how much of the route is tunnelled. The budget for the design and construction of the Dinah’s Hollow soil stabilisation maintenance scheme is £4million, to date we have spent £600,000. Risk Assessment: The risks associated with all three examined road schemes are high. This reflects both high scheme costs, and low scheme deliverability. The cost of developing the business case alone is high and it is unlikely to show a sufficiently compelling economic case to be able to secure external funding. Lower risk alternatives could be more fully investigated through further work. The risk associated with the deferment of the C13 Slope Stabilisation scheme is low. A copy of the risk assessment is attached in Appendix 1 Other Implications. Sustainability: there is a risk that the new road proposals could encourage increased commuting between Blandford and Poole, leading to an associated increase in carbon emissions. Recommendation That the Cabinet: 1. Considers the evidence contained within the economic assessments for the three new road schemes and advises how it wishes to proceed in the light of high costs and the correspondingly poor value for money. 2. Advises whether to investigate alternative lower cost options to improve North-South links through Dorset for example by alleviating C13 pinch points and working up the transport Page 4 – Dorset’s North-South highway infrastructure (A350 / C13 and A37 / A354) schemes for the Western Dorset Growth Corridor. 3. Agrees to suspend the proposed Dinah’s Hollow Slope Stabilisation scheme until a definitive decision has been reached regarding the funding of a north/south strategic link between the M4 and Poole Port following the collaborative work with Bath and North East Somerset and Wiltshire Councils. 4. Agrees that should the Dinah’s Hollow Slope Stabilisation scheme be suspended, that further mitigation works detailed in paragraph 5.11 should be carried out as soon as practicable. Reason for Evidence in the form of economic assessments for these long Recommendation standing road schemes has been secured. To ensure these are taken into account when future major scheme funding bids to Government are prepared and whether alternative transport strategies are required in light of the high cost of these road schemes. Appendices Appendix 1 - C13 Reassessment of Risk of Maintaining Current Traffic Management Arrangements Background Papers DLEP Strategic Economic Plan Economic Assessments Report Originators Name: Matthew Piles and Contacts Tel: 01305 221336 Email: [email protected] Name: Andrew Martin Tel: 01305 228182 Email: [email protected] Page 5 – Dorset’s North-South highway infrastructure (A350 / C13 and A37 / A354) 1 Background 1.1 Parsons Brinckerhoff has been commissioned by Dorset County Council to undertake a high level economic assessment study of North-South strategic roads through Dorset (A350/C13 and A37/A354). This work has looked at whether, as a result of planned employment and housing growth in Dorset and beyond, an economic case can be made to support the delivery of longstanding new road schemes in these corridors. This includes a C13 Melbury Abbas Bypass, the A350 Sturminster Marshall, Spetisbury and Charlton Marshall Bypass and the A354 Portland Road Relief Road. This is a similar approach undertaken to the A303 corridor by the South West Highways Alliance. The studies use 2010 prices to generate the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) for each scheme in line with DfT guidance. To give a more up-to-date picture, these costs have been factored up to 2015 prices for the purpose of this report. 2 A350/C13 Corridor Economic Assessment C13 Melbury Abbas Bypass and improvements 2.1 In 2006 the A350 Corridor study undertaken by Dorset County Council considered three bypass options for Melbury Abbas and the promotion of alternative strategic routes including the A37/A303/A358 and the M3/A34 Corridor. The report concluded that increased journey times and distances of alternative routes would result in little effect on drivers already familiar with the A350 route. With regard to the bypass schemes, the report concluded that of all the highway improvement schemes, a bypass combined with on-line improvements at points along the length of the C13 would provide the largest reduction in traffic on the A350 (south of Iwerne Minster) and on the C13 at Melbury Abbas.