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Building Resilience Together: Military and Local Government

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Building Resilience Together: Military and Local Government BUILDING RESILIENCE TOGETHER MILITARY AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT COLLABORATION FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION MARIA MCCOLLESTER | MICHELLE E. MIRO KRISTIN VAN ABEL C O R P O R A T I O N Cover design: Peter Soriano Cover image: Adobe Stock/sherryvsmith / Gettyimages/ozgurdonmaz Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3014. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0463-3 © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation Overview global climate change effects, at home and abroad, that may challenge its military readiness,11 stretch Identified by security experts as a “threat multi- its resources, distract from its missions, or affect its plier”1 and a “threat without threateners,”2 climate ability to respond to multiple, simultaneous crises change crosses all physical and political borders. It is that may also arise from climate-related conflict.12 inherently complex, highly uncertain, and global in U.S. military installations are often co-located in scope, posing a unique challenge to infrastructure, or near civilian facilities and share infrastructure, communities, and security in the United States and personnel, and resources, including water and power, throughout the world. Moreover, scientific consen- with these local governments. These installations are sus indicates that climate change and its effects on thus highly dependent on the resilience and viability humans and the environment will worsen by 2040 of infrastructure and services provided by their sur- and beyond.3 To prepare for and build resilience rounding communities. As a consequence, the read- to climate change—including more-frequent and iness of installations can be degraded by the effects more-intense extreme weather events, rising sea lev- of climate change off-base—including road closures, els, increasing temperatures, and changing precipi- power loss, property damage, and health effects— tation patterns—governmental, military, and private that affect the mobility and availability of staff and entities will need to adapt to these effects.4 contractors, support services, and logistics.13 Such climate adaptation starts with planning. To assess how collaboration might build commu- Climate adaptation plans anticipate climate changes;5 nity and U.S. military resilience to climate change and direct financial, human, and natural resources; and to support communities and installations considering strengthen infrastructure systems. Climate adap- whether to pursue long-term, regional resilience, this tation plans are often conceptualized, written, and research aims to answer the following two questions: implemented by individual governmental, military, What role can collaboration play in military and local and private entities. However, siloed planning can government climate resilience planning, and what lead to inadequate investment or ineffective policies organizational attributes would enable local gov- when neighbors plan for different futures or follow ernments and military services to collaborate more different planning paths but experience the same effectively on such climate planning efforts? climate hazards. In this pilot study, we answer these questions by Climate adaptation planning can, instead, be examining the case of the Hampton Roads region fortified through collaboration and coordination of Virginia, a coastal region that is home to one of between neighboring entities—governmental, the largest concentrations of military facilities and military, and private—that share infrastructure personnel in the United States. Hampton Roads systems, personnel, and natural resources.6 Research recently hosted a collaborative sea-level rise planning is increasingly focused on the beneficial role that pilot project that included representatives from local collaborative processes can play in improving climate governments and the military. Hampton Roads thus resilience7 and bolstering the efficacy of adapta- serves as an illustrative case for the broader problem tion strategies.8 A growing number of collaborative of how critical local and U.S. military infrastructure climate planning efforts,9 largely among U.S. cit- within the United States and around the world can ies, counties, and local and state agencies, further adapt and become more resilient to climate change’s demonstrates that regional entities realize they must effects. work together to adapt effectively to climate change. Through our research, we found that collabo- The U.S. military can also benefit from engag- ration, generally, is beneficial to improving regional ing in these types of collaboratives. As of 2017, capacity to deal with climate change and provides the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) managed the flexibility needed to address complex challenges 4,793 military installations in the United States and amid multiple participants. We also uncovered com- around the world.10 This geographic reach makes mon themes contributing to the success of climate it likely that DoD will experience a wide range of resilience collaboration among regional stakeholders 1 Abbreviations government-military coordination on environmental CNA Center for Naval Analyses planning and management. We then present our case study of collaborative climate planning in the DoD U.S. Department of Defense Hampton Roads region and include an analysis of FWS U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service expert opinion solicited from climate change prac- HRPDC Hampton Roads Planning District titioners in the region. Finally, we conclude with Commission thoughts on the role of collaborative climate planning between local government and military entities. INRMP Integrated Natural Resource Management Plan IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate Change: A Threat to Change Military Installations IPP Intergovernmental Pilot Project The national security effects of climate change can be NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization organized into three broad categories: geostrategic, regional, and military operations and readiness.15 NDAA National Defense Authorization Act While all three are critical to national security, we ODU Old Dominion University chose to focus on the last category to add to the con- REPI Readiness and Environmental Protection gressional and military inquiries on the role of climate Initiative change in military readiness and operations pursued over the past few years.16 In the 2018 National Defense SERDP Strategic Environmental Research and Authorization Act (NDAA), Congress reaffirmed Development Program that climate change is a “direct threat to the national USFWS U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service security of the United States.”17 The law recognized multiple instances of climate-induced effects upon that are generalizable and applicable to other areas, U.S. military installations, ranging from the potential especially those with a significant military presence.14 for the Air Force’s Marshall Islands radar installation From these findings, we provide insights that can to be underwater within two decades to the fact that “a help foster the conditions and mechanisms for suc- three-foot rise in sea levels will threaten the operations cessful collaboration: of more than 128 United States military sites, and it is possible that many of these at-risk bases could be 1. Implement a regional, intergovernmental col- submerged in the coming years.” The act called for the laborative approach to climate change planning Secretary of Defense to produce a report within a year 2. Establish concrete common goals in the initial of the law’s passage on the vulnerabilities of military phases of collaborative arrangements installations to climate change over the next 20 years 3. Secure strong commitments from leaders and and mitigation needed to ensure installation and mis- stakeholders to the collaborative’s success, sion readiness.18 goals, and implementing measures In response to this requirement, DoD released a 4. Create durable lines of communication and report in January 2019 that outlined climate-related information-sharing among collaborators and events that have affected selected installations and with the public estimated the projected incidence of these types of 5. Identify and secure funding streams and events 20 years into the future. Limited in detail, the establish financial management processes. report described the results of a survey that asked 79 In the next section, we discuss recent congressio- mission assurance priority installations to report and nal and DoD examination of climate change’s effects project five types of climate-related events: recurrent on military installations. Following, we provide a defi- flooding, drought, desertification, wildfires, and nition of collaboration and an example of successful thawing permafrost. The report stated
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