A PLAN FOR AMERICA

A PRESIDENTIAL PLAN FOR COMBATING THE SECURITY RISKS OF

L PO ICY GN I GENC Y E E LI GE R S L E R O E EN F N T DEFE N I

HOUSE E SECURI IT ND TY H LA W September 2019E M Edited by John Conger, Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell O

H Chaired and in published by partnership with

The Center for Climate and Security | 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 | www.climateandsecurity.org

L PO ICY GN I GENC Y E E LI GE R S L E R O E EN F N T DEFE N I

HOUSE E SECURI IT ND TY H LA W E M

O

H

Cover Photo: Soldiers with the Texas Army National Guard move through flood- waters from Hurricane Harvey. U.S. ARMY PHOTO BY 1ST LT. ZACHARY WEST.

L PO ICY GN I EN Y E LIG CGE R E L The Climate and SecurityR Advisory Group (CSAG)O is a voluntary, non-partisan group S of U.S.-based military,E , homeland security, intelligence and foreign E EN F N policy experts from a broad range of institutions. The CSAG is Dchaired by the CenterE T for Climate and Security in partnership with the George Washington University’sEF N Elliott School of International Affairs. See page 5 for a full list of signatories of this I document. Organizational affiliations are listed for identification purposes only.

HOUSE E SECURI IT ND TY H LA W E M

O

This report should be cited as: The Center for Climate Hand Security, 2019. A Climate Security Plan for America, Washington, DC: The Climate and Security Advisory Group, Chaired by the Center for Climate and Security in partnership with George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs

© 2019 The Center for Climate and Security, an institute of The Council on Strategic Risks

The Center for Climate and Security | 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 | www.climateandsecurity.org 3 CONTENTS

THE CLIMATE AND SECURITY ADVISORY GROUP SIGNATORIES | 5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND TOP RECOMMENDATIONS: A STRATEGIC VISION FOR CLIMATE SECURITY | 8

INTRODUCTION: THE RISKS NECESSITATING A CLIMATE SECURITY PLAN FOR AMERICA | 9

A CLIMATE SECURITY PLAN FOR AMERICA | 11

I. DEMONSTRATING LEADERSHIP: MAKE CLIMATE CHANGE A VITAL NATIONAL SECURITY PRIORITY | 12

RECOMMENDATIONS | 13

II. ASSESSING CLIMATE RISKS: TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UNPRECEDENTED FORESIGHT ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE | 19

RECOMMENDATIONS | 20

III. SUPPORTING ALLIES AND PARTNERS: COMPETE ON THE WORLD STAGE BY BOLSTERING INTERNATIONALLY | 23

RECOMMENDATIONS | 24

IV. PREPARING FOR AND PREVENTING CLIMATE IMPACTS: BUILD U.S. RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE RISKS AND REDUCE THEIR SCALE AND SCOPE | 27

RECOMMENDATIONS | 28

APPENDIX: THE CLIMATE SECURITY PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS ORGANIZED BY AGENCY | 33

WHITE HOUSE | 33

DEFENSE | 36

DIPLOMACY AND DEVELOPMENT | 41

HOMELAND SECURITY | 44

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY | 46

OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES | 47

The Center for Climate and Security | 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 | www.climateandsecurity.org 4 THE CLIMATE AND SECURITY ADVISORY GROUP SIGNATORIES

The Climate Security Plan for America is endorsed by the following members of the Climate and Security Advisory Group.

Honorable Richard Truly General Gordon Sullivan, General Larry D. Welch, Vice Admiral, US Navy (Ret) US Army (Ret) US Air Force (Ret) Former NASA Administrator Former Chief of Staff of the US Army Former Chief of Staff of the US Air Force Former Commander, Naval Space Command Advisory Board Member The Center for Climate and Security

Admiral Paul Zukunft, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, General Anthony Zinni, US Coast Guard (Ret) US Navy (Ret) US Marine Corps (Ret) Former Commandant of the US Coast Guard Former Commander, Pacific Command Former Commander, US Central Command Advisory Board Member Advisory Board Member Advisory Board Member The Center for Climate and Security The Center for Climate and Security The Center for Climate and Security

Honorable John Conger Honorable Alice Hill Honorable Dennis McGinn Former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Former Senior Director of Resilience Policy Vice Admiral, US Navy (Ret) Defense (Comptroller) National Security Council Former Assistant Secretary of the Navy Director Advisory Board Member (Energy, Installations & Environment) The Center for Climate and Security The Center for Climate and Security Advisory Board Member

Honorable Miranda A. A. Ballentine Admiral Frank L. “Skip” Bowman, General Ronald E. Keys, Former Assistant Secretary of the Air Force US Navy (Ret) US Air Force (Ret) (Installations, Environment and Energy) Former Director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion Former Commander, Air Combat Command Advisory Board Member Program Chairman, CNA The Center for Climate and Security Advisory Board Member Advisory Board Member The Center for Climate and Security The Center for Climate and Security

Admiral T. Joseph Lopez, Honorable Sherri Goodman Robert S. Taylor US Navy (Ret) Former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Former Principal Deputy General Counsel, Former Commander, Allied Forces Southern () Department of Defense Europe and Navy Forces Europe Advisory Board Member Advisory Board Member The Center for Climate and Security The Center for Climate and Security

Lieutenant General John Castellaw, Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, US Navy (Ret) Lieutenant General Arlen D. Jameson, US Marine Corps (Ret) Former Inspector General, US Air Force (Ret) Former Chief of Staff, US Central Command US Department of the Navy Former Deputy Commander, US Strategic Advisory Board Member Chairman, The Gunn Group Command The Center for Climate and Security Advisory Board Member The Center for Climate and Security

The Center for Climate and Security | 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 | www.climateandsecurity.org 5 Lieutenant General Stephen Lanza, Vice Admiral Robert Parker, Lieutenant General Norman Seip, US Army (Ret) US Coast Guard (Ret) US Air Force (Ret) Former Commander, I Corps Former Coast Guard Atlantic Area Commander Former Commander, 12th Air Force Advisory Board Member Advisory Board Member Independent Consultant The Center for Climate and Security The Council on Strategic Risks NS Solutions

Gregory Treverton Rear Admiral Len Hering, US Navy (Ret) Rear Admiral Ann Phillips, Former Chair, National Intelligence Council Former Commander, Navy Region Southwest US Navy (Ret) Professor of Practice Advisory Board Member Former Commander, Expeditionary Strike University of Southern California The Center for Climate and Security Group TWO Advisory Board Member The Center for Climate and Security

Rear Admiral David Titley, Rear Admiral Jonathan White, Joseph Bryan US Navy (Ret) US Navy (Ret) Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Former Oceanographer and Navigator of the President & CEO Navy Navy Consortium for Ocean Leadership (Energy) Advisory Board Member Advisory Board Member Principal The Center for Climate and Security The Center for Climate and Security Muswell-Orange, LLC

Brigadier General Joseph R. Barnes, Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney, Brigadier General Gerald E. Galloway, US Army (Ret) US Marine Corps (Ret) US Army (Ret) Advisory Board Member Chief Executive Officer Former Dean of the Academic Board, West Point The Center for Climate and Security American Security Project Glenn L. Martin Institute Professor of Engineering University of Maryland

Captain Steve Brock, US Navy (Ret) Captain James C. Goudreau SC, Colonel Mark Mykleby, Senior Advisor US Navy (Ret) US Marine Corps (Ret) The Council on Strategic Risks Former Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Advisory Board Member the Navy (Energy) The Center for Climate and Security

Colonel Lawrence B. Wilkerson, Lieutenant Colonel Hal Bidlack, PhD, Commander Deke Slayton, US Army (Ret) US Air Force (Ret) US Navy (Ret) Distinguished Adjunct Professor of Senior Research Fellow Research Fellow, Hoover Institution Government and Public Policy The Center for Climate and Security Stanford University College of William and Mary Advisory Board Member The Center for Climate and Security

Lieutenant Commander Oliver Barrett, Joshua Busby Elizabeth L. Chalecki, PhD US Navy (Ret) Associate Professor Asst Professor, Senior Research Fellow LBJ School of Public Affairs Department of The Center for Climate and Security University of Texas - Austin University of Nebraska – Omaha

Nancy Colleton Taylor Dimsdale Francesco Femia President Head of Research Chief Executive Officer Institute for Global Environmental Strategies E3G The Council on Strategic Risks Co-Founder The Center for Climate and Security

The Center for Climate and Security | 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 | www.climateandsecurity.org 6 Rachel Fleishman Bishop Garrison Greg Gershuny Senior Fellow Director, National Security Outreach & Executive Director The Center for Climate and Security Veterans for American Ideals Energy & Environment Program Human Rights First The Aspen Institute

Lukas Haynes Cullen Hendrix Andrew Holland Executive Director Professor Chief Operating Officer The David Rockefeller Fund Director, Sié Chéou-Kang Center for American Security Project Advisory Board Member International Security and Diplomacy The Center for Climate and Security Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver

Amber Houghstow Dr. Rachael Jonassen Dr. Marcus King Executive Director Associate Research Professor Associate Professor Peace Rising Sustainable Urban Planning Program The George Washington University George Washington University Advisory Board Member The Center for Climate and Security

Chris Kurowski Ashley McIlvain Moran Christine Parthemore Independent Consultant State Fragility Initiative Director Former Senior Advisor to the Assistant Robert Strauss Center for International Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical Security & Law and Biological Defense University of Texas at Austin Director, Center on Strategic Weapons The Council on Strategic Risks

Wilson Rickerson Celina Scott-Buechler Rod Schoonover Policy Fellow Deputy Director Former Director of Environment and Natural The Center for Climate and Security Peace Rising Resources Principal and Co-Founder National Intelligence Council Converge Strategies, LLC Adjunct Professor Georgetown University School of Foreign Service

Dr. Stacy D. Vandeveer Joan VanderVort Swathi Veeravalli Professor of Global Governance and Human Former Deputy Director, Ranges, Sea and Airspace Advisory Board Member Security Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of The Center for Climate and Security McCormack Graduate School of Policy & Defense (Readiness) Global Studies Advisory Board Member University of Massachusetts, Boston The Center for Climate and Security

Nathan Wendt Caitlin Werrell Michael Milton Wu Vice President Chief Executive Officer Policy Fellow Jackson Hole Center for Global Affairs The Council on Strategic Risks The Center for Climate and Security Co-Founder Principal and Co-Founder The Center for Climate and Security Converge Strategies, LLC

Linda Yarr Director, Partnerships for International Studies in Asia Research Professor of International Affairs The George Washington University

The Center for Climate and Security | 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 | www.climateandsecurity.org 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND TOP RECOMMENDATIONS: A STRATEGIC VISION FOR CLIMATE SECURITY

In the next few years, the U.S. President will be forced to respond to increasing and unprecedented climate-driven security risks to the nation. These are risks that we can already anticipate, given available science, intelligence and predictive capabilities. In this context of unprecedented risk and unprecedented foresight, the President has a responsibility to prepare the nation for the unavoidable impacts of climate change, and a responsibility to prevent future security scenarios that impose catastrophic consequences. Combating these risks will require extraordinary leadership and a response involving a broad range of Federal agencies, including those managing intelligence, defense, diplomacy, development, homeland security, science, technology and energy. This report proposes a Climate Security Plan for America that the President should announce and implement through a newly-created Presidential National Security Directive in order to combat these unprecedented security risks urgently and comprehensively.

The strategy embodied in the Climate Security Plan for America is based on two fundamental principles. First, to make a real difference in addressing the security risks posed by climate change, climate security must be an articulated priority of the President, one communicated plainly to both the American people and to the Federal agencies tasked to respond to the threat. Second, climate impacts must be integrated into the considerations of security actors throughout the government, not just as a separate category of action, but as a risk that informs and affects the security priorities with which these agencies wrestle on a daily basis. Upon that foundation of Presidential prioritization and agency integration, the plan comprises four pillars of action:

1. Demonstrating Leadership: Make Climate Change a Vital National Security Priority. Top Recommendation: The President should announce a government-wide Climate Security Plan for America, enshrined in a newly-created Presidential National Strategy Directive, and create a new White House Office on Climate Security, led by a senior White House official reporting directly to the President, to oversee implementation of the directive and related interagency efforts.

2. Assessing Climate Risks: Take Advantage of Unprecedented Foresight About Climate Change. Top Recommendation: The President should create an interagency Climate Security Crisis Watch Center in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to drive government-wide assessments of the security risks driven by climate change.

3. Supporting Allies and Partners: Reinforce U.S. National Security and Compete on the World Stage by Bolstering Climate Resilience Abroad. Top Recommendation: The President should task the National Security Advisor with creating Regional Climate Security Plans – unified interagency plans that support U.S. national security, foreign policy and development strategies in critical regions of the world to bolster climate resilience and clean energy transitions in key countries, prevent climate stress from destabilizing fragile states, expand U.S. alliances and partnerships, and compete with great powers.

4. Preparing for and Preventing Climate Impacts: Build U.S. Resilience to Climate Change Risks and Reduce Their Scale and Scope. Top Recommendations: The President should launch a major Climate Security Infrastructure Initiative to improve the climate resilience of our critical civilian and military infrastructure, and an economy-wide Climate Security Prevention Policy focused both in the U.S. and globally to reduce at a scale necessary for both avoiding catastrophic security consequences and bolstering economic development.

The Center for Climate and Security | 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 | www.climateandsecurity.org 8 INTRODUCTION: THE RISKS NECESSITATING A CLIMATE SECURITY PLAN FOR AMERICA

Human civilization has never before experienced the current rapi