Journal of Peace Research 2021, Vol. 58(1) 186–194 Beyond internal conflict: The emergent ª The Author(s) 2020 Article reuse guidelines: practice of climate security sagepub.com/journals-permissions DOI: 10.1177/0022343320971019 journals.sagepub.com/home/jpr

Joshua W Busby LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Austin-Texas

Abstract The field of climate and security has matured over the past 15 years, moving from the margins of academic research and policy discussion to become a more prominent concern for the international community. The practice of climate and security has a broad set of concerns extending beyond climate change and armed conflict. Different national governments, international organizations, and forums have sought to mainstream climate security concerns empha- sizing a variety of challenges, including the risks to military bases, existential risks to low-lying island countries, resource competition, humanitarian emergencies, shocks to food security, migration, transboundary water manage- ment, and the risks of unintended consequences from climate policies. Despite greater awareness of these risks, the field still lacks good insights about what to do with these concerns, particularly in ‘fragile’ states with low capacity and exclusive political institutions.

Keywords climate change, climate security, environmental security, human security

During a visit to the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu in security; and third, how policy can be made more effec- 2019, UN Secretary-General Anto´nio Guterres wrote on tive going forward. Twitter: ‘We must stop Tuvalu from sinking and the world from sinking with Tuvalu’ (United Nations, The challenges 2019). Guterres underscored the existential risks of cli- mate change for low-lying island countries. In so doing, The emergent practice has identified a broad suite of the Secretary-General demonstrated that practitioners climate security challenges, ranging from the operational have a more expansive set of concerns than whether implications for specific military bases to the existential climate change leads to violent conflict, the primary challenges for some countries and regions. The links focus of much academic research (Gleditsch, 2021). between climate change and internal conflict – both civil Climate-related internal conflict still remains a central wars and communal conflicts – still have a central place focus for practitioners. That said, we still know little in the conversation as evinced by several United Nations about how to prevent climate-related conflicts from Security Council resolutions for ongoing conflicts in starting or how to stop them once they start, though Africa. A 2015 report for the G-7 identified seven academics have more understanding now of risk factors. sources of what they described as ‘compound climate- Both the practice and study of climate security (or cli- fragility risks’, climate risks that when combined with mate security, for shorthand) need to develop more les- other sources of state fragility can lead to negative con- sons of what works to diminish conflict risks and wider sequences including local resource competition, liveli- threats to human security. To understand where the hood insecurity and migration, extreme weather events practice of climate security should go, this essay is and disasters, volatile food prices and provision, divided into three parts: first, the suite of climate security challenges policymakers have identified; second, a short Corresponding author: overview of the emergent practice of climate and [email protected] Busby 187 transboundary water management, sea-level rise and dis- atolls may become uninhabitable by 2050 if saltwater placement, and unintended effects of climate policies overtops aquifers and makes it impossible to grow crops (Ru¨ttinger et al., 2015: viii–x). or secure fresh water (Storlazzi et al., 2018). Such risks Part of this more encompassing set of climate security constitute threats to the continued existence of some concerns is a function of a greater willingness of practi- states, even leaving aside human security impacts. tioners to embrace human security and move beyond a Indeed, countries have made preliminary preparations traditional focus on state security. A focus on human for managed retreat by securing land overseas (in Fiji, security constitutes a broadening in two directions, sub- in Kiribati’s case). stantively away from conventional security threats (mov- Even if their existence is not threatened, other coun- ing beyond armed attacks to encompass environmental tries face extensive risks because of large populations and change) and whose security is of concern (moving valuable infrastructure located near coasts. Former US beyond states to the security of individuals and commu- Vice President Al Gore dramatized these risks in his nities). While the concept has been critiqued for being slideshow projections of future climate change (Gore, wooly (Paris, 2001, 2004; Busby, 2008), a human secu- 2006). Accurately estimating these risks requires projec- rity lens draws attention to how climate change can lead tions of emissions and sea-level rise, adequate representa- to negative consequences for people, even if state security tions of elevation, and good population maps and is not challenged (Adger et al., 2021). The most severe forecasts. A 2019 study corrected some standard biases threat of course is loss of life, and extreme weather events in digital elevation models to estimate the number of such as swift onset storms and even slower onset people likely living in expanded flood zones in a variety droughts can lead to large-scale fatalities. Calls to of emissions scenarios. In the high emissions scenario, broaden or redefine security date back to the 1980s (Ull- they found that some 340 million people would be living man, 1983). With other concerns like the coronavirus below annual flood levels (or below high tide) by mid- also contributing to large-scale death and economic dis- century, up from 250 million today – between 18% and ruption, policymakers have increasingly accepted that 32% in China alone (Kulp & Strauss, 2019). health and environmental threats can constitute security The risks to coastal populations extend beyond sea- concerns. There is, of course, a longstanding debate level rise. A study estimated 625 million lived in low about the merits of securitizing environmental and other elevation coastal zones in 2000 (less than 10 meters problems, because of the potential for threat inflation, above sea-level), with that number expanding to between the use of emergency procedures for security problems, 879 million and nearly 950 million by 2030 under dif- and the risks of reinforcing nationalist approaches to ferent population growth scenarios (Neumann et al., collective problem-solving (Deudney, 1990). 2015). The risks of sea-level rise are magnified by storm This recognition of the security consequences of surge and hurricanes/cyclonic activity. Large coastal climate change led the Intergovernmental Panel on populations in the United States are at grave risk of Climate Change (IPCC), in its Fifth Assessment Report, storms and hurricanes, extending from Texas along the to include a chapter on human security, defined as Gulf Coast to Florida and up the eastern seaboard to protecting the ‘vital core’ of human lives, which include New York. In 2017, three storms in succession – Har- material and non-material aspects (Adger et al., 2014). vey, Irma, and Maria – collectively caused more than The IPCC chapter included but was not limited to the $250 billion in damages and thousands of deaths, and links between climate and conflict. While the treatment required the mobilization of tens of thousands of the went further than this author would have to include military for humanitarian rescue and response (Rice, threats to cultural survival, the chapter signaled the pol- 2018). The island of Puerto Rico, a US possession, had icy community’s broader interests beyond the study of its electricity grid destroyed, with thousands of residents climate–conflict links. experiencing prolonged power outages over the next Among those security risks are the existential threats year. The densely populated areas off the Bay of Bengal to low-lying island countries from sea-level rise, saltwater bordering India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar have expe- intrusion, and coastal inundation from storms. These rienced intense cyclonic activity, with large-scale loss of risks constitute both human security concerns and life, though much less in recent decades for India and threats to state security. In traditional national security Bangladesh. Myanmar experienced catastrophic losses of parlance, states worry that armed external attacks might more than 140,000 lives when Cyclone Nargis battered lead to their countries ceasing to exist as independent the Irrawaddy Delta in 2008. The impacts of climate units. Some studies suggest a number of Pacific island change on hurricanes has been a contentious issue 188 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 58(1) among scientists, but the linkages have become clearer and led to damages in excess of $16.5 billion (Rice, over time (Mooney, 2007). While some of these risks 2019). Other climate risks include riverine flooding, can be managed with early warning systems, cyclone which periodically upends the lives and livelihoods of shelters, and other adaptive responses to climate-proof hundreds of millions around the world and is likely get- infrastructure, the enhanced risks of cyclones, along with ting worse as a result of more variable rains leading to sea-level rise, may exacerbate the habitability problems of larger downpours. In 2010, Pakistan, for example, expe- some coastal locations. rienced severe flooding that led to the displacement of These risks of habitability extend beyond islands and more than 1.5 million with disruptive effects on as many coastal areas. Wallace-Wells surveyed a variety of exis- as 20 million people (Schaffer & Dixon, 2010). In July tential challenges to parts of humanity in his evocative 2020, seasonal flooding in China led to the temporary essay and later book The Uninhabitable Earth (Wallace- displacement of more than 40 million people, with con- Wells, 2017, 2019). As he noted, some studies warn that cerns that the Three Gorges Dam might fail, potentially rising temperatures will make regions of the world in leading to catastrophic loss of life downstream (Tan, South Asia and the Middle East uninhabitable by stres- 2020). While the climate signal in this particular episode sing crop production, reducing freshwater aquifers, and is unclear, flood risks are among the various large-scale by making regions so hot that it will be difficult for threats to loss of life from climate-related hazards. people to spend extended periods of time outdoors. One The impacts on loss of life and livelihoods from cli- study, using a mid-range scenario for climate change mate hazards and disasters are clearly significant human (RCP4.5), found that under a range of population and security issues, but are they national security issues? One economic growth scenarios, between 1.62 billion and of the concerns associated with climate-related extreme 2.49 billion would face mean annual temperatures in weather events is population displacement within or excess of 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit) by across borders. People may be forced from their homes 2070 and would be displaced from what is considered temporarily or permanently as a result of climate change. the normal range of conditions habitable for human Whether climate migrants are likely to engage in conflict beings. The Saharan desert, for comparison, has a mean or become targets of violence has been vigorously annual temperature of 30 degrees Celsius (Xu et al., debated by academics (Reuveny, 2007; Raleigh, Jordan 2020). & Salehyan, 2008; Koubi et al., 2016). The large pop- Another study on South Asia examined the intersec- ulation movements triggered by drought in Syria, and tion of heat and humidity and suggested that the upper whether these movements contributed to the civil war, bound for human habitability is 35 degrees Celsius with have been particularly contentious (Gleick, 2014; Kelley even 31 degrees Celsius dangerous for human beings. A et al., 2015; Selby et al., 2017). temperature of 34.4 degrees Celsius with 80% humidity Even if the contribution of climate migrants to con- can feel more like nearly 54 degrees Celsius or 129 flict is unresolved, security practitioners are concerned degrees Fahrenheit, and it can be quite dangerous if about the dislocative effects of large-scale migration, people are unable to cool down. A 2015 heat wave in whetheritbepastoralistssearchingforbettergrazing India and Pakistan had a wet-bulb temperature of 50 land and water potentially coming into conflict with degrees Celsius and killed 3,500 (Leahy, 2017). This settled agriculturalists or internal or cross-border move- study suggested that, for a high-end emissions scenario ments of people seeking to escape from extreme weather (RCP8.5), nearly 30% of the population in the agricul- events. Prior to the coronavirus, the rise of populist turally rich Indus and Ganges river valleys would face a nationalism had created dangerous political dynamics median temperature of 31C by 2100 compared to only in the United States and a number of European coun- 2% in the RCP4.5 scenario (Im, Pal & Eltahir, 2017), tries. For example, climate change has been implicated which underscores the importance of actions taken today by analysts in the migration decisions of farmers from to limit emissions to the lower-range scenarios. Central America (Leutert, 2018), and the militarized Climate risks that threaten human existence extend response of the Trump administration to those migrants beyond sea-level rise and temperature increases. As the had profound implications for regional security in Cen- United States has witnessed in recent years, the spread of tral America. Even if the reasons for migration are not populations to forest-rich environments has put many environmental, displaced populations may be at risk of communities at risk of wildfires, a risk accentuated by climate hazards. After 700,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar rising temperatures and disrupted rainfall patterns. In in 2017 in response to ethnic cleansing, they found 2018, the Camp Fire in California claimed some 85 lives themselves at risk of storms and cyclones in their new Busby 189 location in Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh, raising human minerals important for clean energy systems, land use security concerns (Grunebaum, 2019). Moreover, their issues associated with biofuels and REDDþ forest con- presence in Bangladesh creates an ongoing source of servation initiatives, and short-run adaptive responses interstate tension. that may exacerbate environmental damage to forests, Even where populations do not migrate, practitioners water, and land (Dabelko et al., 2013). These potential worry about the effects on lives and livelihoods, partic- impacts underscore the distributional impacts of deci- ularly for agriculturally dependent communities, which sions made to address climate change, both mitigation may face severe food security deficits from growing sea- and adaptation, which could be as, if not more, conse- sons disrupted by climate extremes and variability. Scien- quential than the physical impacts of climate change tists project major declines in land productivity and crop itself. production under a range of climate scenarios, as crop- growing becomes more difficult as growing conditions deviate from those required by their crops (Iglesias, The practice of climate and security Quiroga & Diz, 2011). In countries with inadequate Policy discussions about the links between climate and famine prevention and response capability, these impacts security date back to the mid-2000s but have matured as can be severe. In the wake of a drought that began in late different governments and international organizations 2010, Somalia experienced an estimated 260,000 excess have sought to mainstream climate security concerns. deaths from famine (Checchi & Robinson, 2013). A community of practice has emerged among think Somalia’s situation of course was exacerbated by the tanks, led by organizations such as the US-based Center long-running civil war between a weak government and for Climate and Security and CNA’s Military Advisory the al Shabaab insurgency. This example itself suggests Board, the German-based adelphi, and the Stockholm food security is not simply one of human security but is International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).1 bound up with wider issues of state security. Indeed, one Among governments, the United States has paid sig- of the core findings of recent climate security research is nificant attention to climate risks, particularly of its own the risk of internal conflict in agriculturally dependent military bases but also its overseas interests. The Obama societies (von Uexkull et al., 2016). So, even if the initial administration issued numerous reports highlighting the effects are on human security, they may escalate to state risks for bases, missions, and training, with thematic security threats under certain conditions. reports on the Arctic, food security, and water security, Security risks also extend to food importers who may as well as branch-specific risks for the Navy and the face higher global prices if climate disruptions increase Combatant Commands (Busby, 2016). Climate and prices on key foodstuffs like wheat. The effects of security received presidential attention through executive drought and disrupted agricultural exports on global actions, though subsequently rescinded by the Trump food prices were implicated in the onset of the Arab administration (Scata, 2017; Calma, 2019). While atten- Spring protest movements (Lagi, Bertrand & Bar-Yam, tion waned in the Trump era, the specific vulnerabilities 2011). Though states may insulate their populations of US military bases continued to be investigated from these effects through social policies (Hendrix & (Department of Defense, 2018, 2019). Haggard, 2015), academic research has found support Climate security concerns are not limited to the for the increased risks of riots and protests if global prices United States. The United Kingdom, Germany, several are passed on to domestic consumers (Smith, 2014). Scandinavian governments, and countries in Oceania Beyond the social and political effects of climate have been especially worried. Among advanced indus- impacts themselves, an emergent concern is the potential trialized countries, these concerns coalesced with the for maladaptation and unintended negative conse- 2015 report for the G-7 mentioned above (Ru¨ttinger quences of responses to climate change that may lead et al., 2015). to negative security consequences (Swatuk & Wirkus, At the Security Council, several member states have 2018; Swatuk et al., 2020). Russia for example reacted sought to create space for discussing climate and security. to a 2010 drought by banning grain exports, which con- tributed to the spike in global food prices that preceded 1 the Arab Spring. The Wilson Center published a survey Other efforts include the Planetary Security Initiative, a Dutch- government funded effort that hosted four annual conferences from of this ‘backdraft’ potential of unintended consequences, 2015 to 2019. A wider international community of practice has been which included discussion of land grabs, geo- developed through the Climate Security Expert Network and the engineering, potential conflict over lithium and other International Military Council on Climate and Security. 190 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 58(1)

The first such discussion, prompted by the United King- management institutions can reduce conflict risks by dom, occurred in 2007. At the time, the connections allocating water, dealing with shocks, and resolving dis- between climate and security were not well understood. putes (Tir & Stinnett, 2012; De Stefano et al., 2017). As Some member states such as Russia and China resisted with the Indus River Treaty between India and Pakistan, calls for the Security Council to broach the topic. Since such institutions can endure despite tensions on other then, the Security Council has more frequently held matters. The policy agenda here is to build such institu- focused discussions on climate and security, including tions in basins where they are lacking and to deepen both formal ‘open debates’ and several ‘Arria-formula’ institutions where they exist. In the contemporary dis- informal sessions (Climate Security Expert Network, pute over Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Renais- n.d.). Several ongoing UN peacebuilding and peacekeep- sance Dam, analysts recommend building a more ing missions have in their mandate renewals been tasked inclusive institutional architecture: legacy agreements by the Security Council to report on climate-related prioritized water access of Egypt and Sudan, leaving security risks, including the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin, other riparians such as Ethiopia with little say over water Somalia, Mali, and Sudan (Eklo¨w & Krampe, 2019). access (Krampe et al., 2020). Support from Sweden, Germany, and other states For other climate security concerns, particularly with ultimately coalesced in the creation of the Climate Secu- respect to famines and cyclone risks, there are also well- rity Mechanism at the United Nations in 2018, a tripar- established policies for addressing human security. These tite arrangement of the United Nations Development include early warning systems, hazard specific interven- Programme, the United Nations Environmental Pro- tions such as cyclone shelters, pre-placement of emer- gramme (UNEP), and the UN’s Department of Political gency supplies, social support mechanisms such as and Peacebuilding Affairs. In its first year plus, the CSM food-for-work schemes and cash transfers, and disaster sought to mainstream climate security concerns in the risk reduction strategies such as better building codes wider UN (United Nations Climate Security Mechan- (Cash et al., 2013; de Waal, 2018; United Nations ism, 2020), building on more than a decade of UNEP’s Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019). work on environmental peacebuilding (Jensen, 2019). In terms of internal conflicts potentially affected by Other international and regional organizations are also climate change, we know less about what works (Busby, grappling with what role they should play (Dellmuth 2018). As Dellmuth et al. (2017) note, ‘[w]hile IGOs are et al., 2017). increasingly important, little is known about the condi- tions under which they address climate security chal- lenges, and when they do so effectively’. While Towards more effective policy foresight and horizon-scanning studies of vulnerability The discussion of threats and policy initiatives begs the are useful, the question is how they should inform sub- question of what to do. The US climate security com- sequent action (Moran et al., 2018). Another study sum- munity has developed a community of stakeholders who marized the problem for practitioners: ‘Yes, but so what? understand the issue and convene regularly. The chal- What is the ministry for development, or foreign affairs, lenges of working with the Trump administration have or defence, or environment supposed to do about it?’ reinforced a tendency to frame the issue in terms of (Smith et al., 2019). impacts on the US military, its bases, and operations Environmental peacebuilding, which overlaps with (Climate and Security Advisory Group, 2019). This the climate security field, may be one place to learn emphasis may sideline other instruments of national lessons. Key insights focus on reducing competition power like development, diplomacy, and humanitarian between groups over resources, better natural resource assistance, which may be more important levers for management, and enhanced dispute resolution (UNEP, addressing overseas impacts, and runs the risk of reinfor- 2012). Other ideas mentioned are for climate-related cing international cleavages between countries. That adaptation/development projects to anticipate potential emphasis may dissipate with the change in the US distributional consequences that might lead to conflict. administration in 2021, but the temptation to emphasize On security, the guidance has emphasized how climate the military dimensions of this problem for political pur- impacts can upend conflict resolution if peace plans are poses remains. premised on resource availability or livelihood possibili- Internationally, we still know little about what works ties that may no longer be tenable. Mainstreaming a for several climate security risks. For transboundary riv- climate security perspective in existing development and ers, we have an appreciation for how river basin security programming can help practitioners more Busby 191 accurately diagnose drivers of conflict such as farmer– concerns, what policymakers are supposed to do with herder violence (van Shaik et al., 2019). Studies of envi- awareness of the risks is less clear, particularly for fragile ronmental peacebuilding focus on trust-building and states. Addressing climate security challenges in those elevating the cooperative possibilities of managing and places requires a theory of state development. The liter- sharing natural resources across borders or within coun- ature on fragile states has recognized that the attributes of tries (Swain & O¨ jendal, 2018: 8). Support for mediation a classic Weberian state – that has reach over its entire and traditional conflict resolution mechanisms and pro- territory, is autonomous from society, and has bureau- moting inclusive development and sustainable liveli- cratic capacity – may be totally or partially impossible in hoods are among recommended strategies to rebuild fragile contexts (Giraudy, 2012). Scholars such as Alex trust (Mobjo¨rk & van Baalen, 2016; Krampe, 2019; de Waal have begun to theorize state development in Vivekananda et al., 2019). In seeking to foster coopera- those places as a ‘patrimonial marketplace’, temporary tion over resources, some environmental peacebuilding elite compacts of convenience brought about by patron- approaches emphasize narrow technical cooperation with age (de Waal, 2009: 102). the hope these activities will foster cooperation on a Under such circumstances, as Radin (2020: 9) argues, wider range of issues, though this apolitical approach has international actors are most likely to be successful when its detractors (Krampe, 2017; Ide, 2020). they press for changes that do not threaten core goals of The climate security academic community has started domestic elites. These insights on fragile states need to be to identify known risk factors for conflict, which include brought into the practice ofclimatesecurity.What recent conflict, weak state capacity, high agriculture would a viable path forward be for a country like Somalia dependence, and high political exclusion (Theisen, Hol- or the conflict in the Lake Chad Basin? What is the termann & Buhaug, 2012; von Uexkull et al., 2016; sequence of reform? Must the conflict end so the envi- Busby & von Uexkull, 2018; Mach et al., 2019). The ronmental challenges can be dealt with or is dealing with geography of at-risk countries generally encompasses the environmental problems a route to resolving the conflict? ‘shatter belt’ of fragile states that extends from the Sahel Here, we do not have a robust evidence base to draw on across North Africa to the MENA region through Tur- from past practice. These are important research ques- key to the Philippines (Buhaug, Gleditsch & Theisen, tions that would be of great practical value, but for which 2008). However, as contemporary experiences in Afgha- there are not obvious answers. nistan, Iraq, and Somalia demonstrate, the international Finally, this discussion begs the question of what to do community’s ability to build capacity and more inclusive about the existential climate risks facing some countries political institutions in fragile states is fraught. Some and populations. Accepting that some countries need to countries may be ripe for change only when an emergent relocate raises thorny questions: Would relocated coun- domestic elite is interested in inclusive development, as tries re-establish sovereignty inside the domain of another occurred in Ethiopia in the early 1990s. country? Would they lose access to resource-rich exclusive There is a better record of targeted international sup- economic zones if they abandon their territorial holdings? port for state capacity for specific purposes, as Ethiopia Before we necessarily accept that some places will become built an impressive food security system and Bangladesh unlivable without massive investment, more in-depth risk invested in cyclone early warning systems and shelters assessments of whether and at what cost places could (Cash et al., 2013; de Waal, 2018). Those developments remain viable are warranted. Embracing managed retreat required local actors with vision and political space to may undermine both local and international efforts to take advantage of international assistance, a challenging support local adaptation, which is preferable (Barnett, situation in countries with more fragile governance such 2017). In the meantime, scholars and practitioners of as Somalia and countries surrounding Lake Chad. climate security should create more opportunities to exchange information and ideas, lest academic findings become divorced from what practitioners care about and Conclusion policymakers support actions researchers believe have little The emergent field of climate and security has gathered chance of success (Busby, 2018). significant interest in a little more than a decade. Think tanks and scholars have succeeded in making policy audi- ences aware of the potential security impacts of climate Acknowledgments change, as the first section on challenges demonstrated. I thank the editors and three anonymous reviewers for Despite some fledgling efforts to address climate security the helpful comments on drafts of this article. 192 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 58(1)

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